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TITLE: Minimum Wage Effects in the Longer Run AUTHORS: David Neumark and Olena Nizalova PAGES: 50 DATE: February 2004 ABSTRACT: Exposure to minimum wages at young ages may lead to longer-run effects. Among the possible adverse longer-run effects are decreased labor market experience and accumulation of tenure, lower current labor supply because of lower wages, and diminished training and skill acquisition. Beneficial longer-run effects could arise if minimum wages increase skill acquisition or if short-term wage increases are long-lasting. We estimate the longer-run effects of minimum wages by using information on the minimum wage history that workers have faced since potentially entering the labor market. The evidence indicates that even as individuals reach their late 20s, they work less and earn less the longer they were exposed to a higher minimum wage, especially as a teenager. The adverse longer-run effects of facing high minimum wages as a teenager are stronger for blacks. From a policy perspective, these longer-run effects of minimum wages are likely more significant than the contemporaneous effects of minimum wages on the youngest individuals that are the focus of most research and policy debate. PPIC working papers present work in progress and may not be quoted or cited without permission of the author. Comments or suggestions, however, are welcome. |