By Mark Baldassare, senior fellow, Public Policy Institute of California
This opinion article appeared in the San Diego Union Tribune on September 7, 2000

Always the trendsetter, California led the nation last week into the uncharted territory of a "majority-minority" society. This designation by the Census Bureau means that no racial or ethnic group in California is in the majority, now that the non-Hispanic white population has fallen below 50 percent.

Beyond the symbolic importance of the transition, much is at stake: How well California handles its unique status will have profound implications, not only for the people who live and work here, but also for the nation, whose economic future depends mightily on this state's performance.

The realization of the majority-minority milestone has been highly anticipated for some time now by California watchers. As recently as 1980, two in three residents were non-Hispanic whites. But the past two decades have seen changes - waves of immigration, especially from Mexico, and a declining birthrate among natives - that have fundamentally altered the state's social landscape. While the Latino and Asian communities have grown rapidly, the African-American population has held steady and the number of non-Hispanic whites has declined as a percentage of the overall population.

While this social transformation is remarkable, in reality it merely represents an interim step - not an end point - in California's demographic evolution. Bigger changes are ahead in the next 20 years, as the state's population swells from 34 million to 45 million. Most of the state's new residents will be Latinos and Asians. In fact, non-Hispanic whites are expected to dwindle in numeric significance as baby boomers age an drop to about 40 percent of the state's population by 2020. At that time, if the state's Department of Finance estimates hold true, Latinos will actually outnumber non-Hispanic whites in California.

How do Californians feel about these demographic changes, and how do they envision the state's future? After a shaky start in the early 1990s - highlighted by the explosive multiracial civil disturbances in Los Angeles in 1992 and fractious state ballot initiatives that sought to eliminate public services for undocumented immigrants in 1994 - most Californians now have a relaxed attitude toward the increasing diversity of their state.

In our recent PPIC Statewide Surveys, residents say they are keenly aware of the racial and ethnic change that is under way. Yet most feel good about the current state of their state, extolling the virtues of immigration and proclaiming that race relations are going well. The state's strong economy - resulting in low unemployment and surplus funds in state coffers - has provided solid foundation for racial and ethnic tolerance.

While things appear rosy at present, public anxiety surfaces when residents are asked to consider California's prospects in the new millennium. In a PPIC Statewide Survey last December, nearly half said they expect the state to be a worse place to live in 2020 than it is today. Interestingly, over half of state residents also expect race relations to improve by the year 2020.

But at least for now, that hopeful sentiment is overshadowed by a powerful concern: Three in four residents expect the gap between the rich and the poor to grow. Indeed, the belief that this income gap will widen is fueling concerns about California's future: Of those who see California in 2020 as a worse place to live, nine in 10 believe that the gap between the "haves" and the "have nots" will grow.

A closer look at the state today indicates that fears about future inequalities may indeed be warranted. Unfortunately, this inequality also stands for more than an income disparity between rich and poor in California; it represents a racial and ethnic divide. Although no racial or ethnic group is in the majority today, non-Hispanic whites are still the dominant players in key political and economic communities. Moreover, while Latinos may be a growing population, they are woefully under-represented in the state's upwardly mobile socio-political groups.

Indeed, the PPIC Statewide Surveys to date indicate that California is not a majority-minority state when it comes to who enjoys economic privilege and political influence. Non-Hispanic whites still compromise three in four of the California adults who have college degrees, own homes, and have annual household incomes of $60,000 or more. Who is benefiting from job growth in the new economy and the run-up in the stock market? Non-Hispanic whites, who make up three in four Internet users and three in four stock investors in California. And who votes in elections? Once again, its non-Hispanic whites who cast three fourths of the ballots in the state.

The reality is also that most Latinos - who are expected to outnumber non-Hispanic whites in 20 years - are not living the California Dream today. Most Latino adults have not attended any college classes and do not own their homes. The majority have annual household incomes under $40,000 a year, have no money in the stock market, have never logged on to the Internet, and have never voted. Moreover, Latinos have the dubious distinction of outnumbering non-Hispanic whites in two disadvantaged economic and political groups today - those who lack high school degrees, and those who are not registered to vote.

California is fortunate to be entering the majority-minority era in a time of plenty, allowing the state to make a less complicated transition to a highly diverse society. But some nagging questions remain about the future: What's in store for California if Latinos continue to lag behind in economic success and political participation while non-Hispanic whites continue to dominate in government and business? Can the state help Latinos to attain the education and skills that are a requirement in the new economy?

It's no wonder that so many Californians rank education as the most important public policy issue. Clearly, a lot is riding on the state's public schools in the coming decade. If they don't succeed, the dire predictions of a state divided could easily come true.