By Mark Baldassare, research director, Public Policy Institute of California
This opinion article appeared in the Sacramento Bee on May 9, 2004

The Central Valley has been on a spectacular run over the past five years. As housing values and the cost of living have gone stratospheric in the coastal regions, many Northern and Southern Californians are discovering that they can still have high quality of life at an affordable price in the middle of the state.

Following a pattern that made Orange County and Santa Clara the state's economic engines in the late 20th century, jobs and commerce are following migrants to the new urban frontiers - places like Fresno, Modesto and especially the Sacramento metro area. However, if that pattern plays out to its historical conclusion in the Valley, the very qualities that are creating the lure could soon be gone.

What is the special something that separates places like the Sacramento metro from other California destinations today? According to a survey of the Central Valley completed a few weeks ago by the Public Policy Institute of California, it's the quality of life in the Valley's local communities. Eight in 10 residents rate their communities as excellent or good places to live; a mere 3 percent gave their local areas a "poor" grade.

Moreover, eight in 10 residents believe their communities have either become better places to live or remained about the same in the past five years. This trend is particularly remarkable given that three in four residents also believe their local communities have grown rapidly in the past five years.

The unique charm of the Central Valley today is that it offers small town atmosphere in a large, populous region - an ideal so elusive yet so attractive to state residents. Central Valley residents - even many in the Sacramento metro area - distinguish themselves from other Californians in how often they describe their local communities as a "small city or town." It's a classic case of having the best of two worlds: a safe and comfortable locale within reach of a vibrant metropolis that has a growing array of diverse peoples, activities and amenities.

Yet, there are forces at work that threaten both the perception and eventual reality of this pastoral ideal. And those forces are becoming more apparent and more disturbing to Valley residents.

Glaringly obvious to most local residents is that traffic is getting worse. Two in three Sacramento metro residents rate traffic on freeways as a big problem today - a 20-point jump since 1999. As a result, the percentage of traffic complaints is approaching what we find in the coastal regions.

But the symptoms of trouble go well beyond gridlock. Take the availability of affordable housing, for example: Just 13 percent are very satisfied with their housing choices today, compared to 31 percent in 1999. Other red flags are a decline in satisfaction with outdoor leisure activities, streets and roads, public schools and higher education.

No other area of the state can match the rate of escalating regional problems, and there is no evidence that these trends will reverse on their own. Sooner rather than later, a continuing deterioration in the region will start to hit home.

The reaction coastal communities had when faced with these types of escalating regional problems might offer a glimpse into the Valley's future. There is usually a rush to pull up the local drawbridge. Local voters pressure their city and county governments to restrict high-density land use, discourage new housing, limit road access and generally do everything in their powers to turn newcomers away. For the residents who can afford it, one option is moving to private, guard-gated communities.

At least for awhile, elite residents can feel insulated from their local governments' inability to stem the tide of regional challenges.

Time provides little evidence, however, that such reactions to regional problems made life better in the coastal areas. In many instances, they just made things worse by creating shortages of housing and jobs, and adding to traffic congestion and crowding. There is no reason to believe that places like Sacramento metro will fare any better.

Fortunately, there are signs that the Central Valley is learning from such mistakes. It may even be charting a different path for California's future.

This past week, local leaders gathered at the Great Valley Center's annual conference in Sacramento. This offered an opportunity to discuss their communities' plights, share notes on successful local actions and find new ways of working together. It's a good start for a civic dialogue that could lead to a regional action plan later on.

Meanwhile, the Sacramento Area Council of Governments organized a meeting of local leaders to look at likely outcomes of the region's expected population surge. The participants easily reached consensus that there are better ways for the region to grow.

For instance, why not build a few more new housing units near existing transit lines instead of moving the boundaries of the Sacramento metro area farther and farther out? Even such seemingly small changes would cut down on future commuting times, reduce air pollution and eliminate some of the governmental costs for extending freeways and roads.

These are positive regional moves. And city and county elected officials should take note that Valley voters are looking for a different kind of local leadership today. Nine in 10 said that it's important to have a forum for city and county governments, businesses and nonprofits to work together on regional issues. Seven in 10 residents said that they want their local governments to get together and agree on a regional plan for growth.

Central Valley residents are beginning to recognize that there is a link between their local quality of life and their region's growth planning. With more and more people betting on the Central Valley's future - three in four residents now say they expect to stay put for at least the next five years - it should be easier to ask them to participate in the solutions. To live up to the people's high hopes for a better tomorrow, local leaders will have to think locally and act regionally today.