Right now, the United States gives preference to two groups of immigrants: those with family members who are already legal permanent residents or citizens, and those in certain employment categories, which can require the sponsorship of an employer. Last year, Congress considered changing the rules to give much more weight to an immigrant’s skills and employment in the United States. This was part of a broad immigration bill, which failed. But elements of it may be revived.

 

Under this version of a merit-based system, immigrants would be assigned points based on experience working here in certain occupations, employer recommendation, age, education level, and English language ability. Family categories would still count – the spouse and children of a U.S. citizen would still be eligible for green cards, just as they are now. But there would be limits on those from other family categories – such as parents of U.S. citizens or the spouses and children of legal permanent residents. Other family preference categories would be eliminated entirely.

 

 

 

We looked at the immigrants who received green cards in 2003 to analyze how they would have fared under the proposed legislation. First, we found that nearly half of them would still be admitted because of family connections. Second, we found that while the point system certainly rewards skill, prior U.S. work experience is critical to getting a high point score. Even engineers with doctorates who are proficient in English would have a difficult time earning a high score if they didn’t already have a job in this country.

 

 

 

The immigration system is complex, and even comprehensive reform efforts can have unintended consequences. Under the proposal we analyzed, for example, there would be new pressure on temporary visa programs. There is already concern among business leaders that these programs – such as the H-1B for high-tech workers – fail to grant enough visas to meet the need.