AUTHORS: William Frey and Kao-Lee Liaw

PAGES: 86     DATE: April 1999

ABSTRACT: The changing size and demographic profile of California's older population will take on increasing importance in the next two decades as the huge baby boom cohorts enter their retirement ages. This paper examines both past and recent domestic migration of the State's pre-boomer retirement age populations to the extent that they may foreshadow future trends. This points up that California's unique demographic structure, within a large non-Californian "transplant" population, is important to consider when formulating policies about population migration and retention for the State. Because California had been able to lure migrants, during their working ages, that were more likely to be college graduates, professionals, and persons with good income potentials, the State's elderly population and soon-to-be elderly population has favorable socioeconomic attributes. On the other hand, California has evolved from a strong "retirement magnet" for elderly migrants and the rest of the US to a "revolving door" that loses more elderly migrants than it gains.

This analysis shows that this new out-migration is dominated by California non-natives--persons who previously moved to California from other parts of the US. This movement is selective on positive socioeconomic attributes and heavily directed to nearby states--Nevada, Oregon, Arizona, and Washington--where expansive retirement development activities are under way. These out-migrating California "transplants" are responding to the same pushes and pulls as native Californian elderly migrants; they are simply more prone to move in response to these considerations.

There is another aspect of California's demographic structure that serves to retain and attract some segments of the elderly population. It is the large share of the country's "adult child" population--older adults whose parents reside in other States--that live in California. This serves to attract elderly parents who reside in other States, and desire to live close to their adult children for assistance. Older surviving widows and widowers are an especially important segment of this migrant group.

While current and near term California elderly migration pattern will be shaped by the large "transplanted" segment of the State's elderly population, this feature will change after the year 2010. Beyond this period, California's elderly population will become increasingly dominated by persons who were born in California and have a greater tendency to remain in the State. Moreover, the "adult child" population of California will become increasingly comprised of foreign born residents from Latin America and Asia whose parents locate in the State to be close to their children.

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