Preliminary crime data for 29 of California’s law enforcement agencies—representing close to one quarter of the state’s population—points toward broad decreases in violent and property crime in 2024. Aggravated assaults and robberies decreased by about 4% and 5% respectively. For the first year since 2020 auto theft fell, by roughly 12%. Compared to 2019, property crime was 11% lower but violent crime was higher, by about 6%.
Why are these numbers considered preliminary? California’s official crime statistics—from the California Department of Justice (CADOJ)—are released in the summer and cover the entire previous year. But a new and reputable source, the Real Time Crime Index (RTCI), collects crime data monthly. This data relies on a diverse sample of law enforcement agencies serving almost 9 million Californians. These agencies have jurisdiction over numerous cities across the state, including San Diego, San Jose, San Francisco, and Long Beach, and includes data from sheriff’s departments in Los Angeles, San Diego, and Sonoma Counties. The RTCI data is subject to revision, especially for recent months—this is partly why it is considered preliminary and also why we report on data through December 2024 only.
Insights from this source depend on the extent to which its trends line up with official statewide trends. We compare data covering January 2018 to December 2023 (official statewide statistics for 2024 won’t be available until summer). This comparison shows quite similar trends over 12-month rolling periods. While the magnitude of changes in the RTCI data do not match perfectly with the CADOJ changes, swings in trends line up quite well.
Our analysis points toward a reversal of the recent pandemic-era uptick in violent crimes in California. Violent crime dropped by 4.6% in 2024, compared to 2023, in the RTCI jurisdictions. However, it is still 5.9% higher than in 2019. Aggravated assaults and robberies (theft with the use or threat of force) had been growing since 2021, but in 2024 they decreased by 3.9% and 5.2% respectively. Homicides have continued to decline after a notable pandemic surge, but in 2024 they still remained above pre-pandemic levels by 5.9%. Aggravated assaults are still notably higher; rape is down by 22.6% and robbery by 12.5%.
Property crime overall dropped by 8.5% in 2024 and is down by 10.8% compared to 2019. The biggest decrease was for auto theft, which had jumped notably during the pandemic. In spite of a 11.9% drop in 2024, it remains 23% higher than in 2019. Burglary and larceny (theft without the use or threat of force) also decreased in 2024—down by 13.6% and 18.6%, respectively, compared to pre-pandemic levels.
California’s decreases in violent and property crimes in 2024 were very similar to those of the more than 300 RTCI law enforcement agencies in other states: property crime dropped by 8.5% in California and 8.4% elsewhere; violent crime by 4.6% and 4.4%, respectively.
The RTCI crime numbers are encouraging, with recent decreases in both violent and property crime matching what is reported by agencies in other states. Notably, decreases in both violent and property crime are also reported by California agencies not included in RTCI data, including Los Angeles PD and Fresno PD. Like all crime data, it is important to keep in mind that it is limited to crimes that are reported to law enforcement agencies, and not all crimes get reported.
A final caveat with this crime data: it does not allow for detailed disaggregation of crimes, including violent crimes involving guns, shoplifting, or theft of car accessories such as catalytic converters, all which were significantly higher in 2023 than before the pandemic.
Despite limitations, data efforts like that of the Real Time Crime Index are of great value, providing researchers opportunities to monitor crime trends with much shorter data lags and allowing policymakers and law enforcement the ability to respond more quickly to changes in public safety.
