With a highly consequential election fast approaching, what does the current political landscape look like? Last week, a panel of top political journalists—moderated by Elex Michaelson, anchor at Fox 11 News—discussed the key issues that will likely shape the outcome in November.

The panelists began by talking about the high stakes of the presidential race—and what it means that one of the candidates is from California. During Donald Trump’s 2016–2020 presidential term, “you really did have an adversarial relationship between the White House and the state [on] things like climate policy, immigration, etc. . . . Multiply that by 10 if Trump is in office a second time around,” said Melanie Mason, senior political correspondent at Politico. In contrast, if Kamala Harris is elected, California “could have the strongest ally and advocate.” The potential for federal influence is even more significant given the fact that California has lost considerable congressional seniority in recent years.

Harris’s early career could also shed light on her campaign and approach to governance. Joe Garofoli, senior political writer at the San Francisco Chronicle, has witnessed Harris build unique coalitions over the years. In her first race running for district attorney of San Francisco, she brought together “rich folks in Pacific Heights, the LGBTQ neighborhoods in the Castro, and traditionally Black neighborhoods in the Bay View,” he said. “There aren’t a lot of folks that can pull together that alliance.”

Of the 10 measures on the upcoming ballot, Proposition 36—which would increase penalties for some drug and theft crimes—has generated the most attention. In PPIC’s September survey, 71% of likely voters say they would vote yes on Prop 36. A solid majority of Democratic voters are in support despite opposition from prominent statewide leaders, including Governor Newsom. Marisa Lagos, political correspondent at KQED, argued that Democratic officials who are against Prop 36 waited too long to pass laws that address voters’ fears about rising crime. “Across party lines, across demographic lines, across geographic lines, people are fed up and they want an answer,” she said.

Several congressional districts in California will likely hold the key to partisan control of the House. Mason finds the Orange County races particularly interesting, given the region’s political history—a bastion of Reagan Republicanism that turned purple in the Obama years. “We’re looking at seats that Biden slightly won in 2020,” said Mason. Are Harris’s coattails long enough for voters to support down-ticket Democrats? Or will voters split their ticket and vote in a Republican representative? “The nuances of these voter coalitions will tell us so much about the future of the Democratic and Republican Parties in the state,” she added.

The panelists all emphasized the importance of local races. “What happens in city hall, in county board of supervisor meetings, and board of education meetings has way more impact on your day-to-day life than what happens in DC,” said Lagos. And when asked about the role of young Californians, Garofoli quoted Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi, “Don’t agonize. Organize.” Go ahead and make a TikTok, he and Lagos agreed, but then organize around what you want to see happen.

***

PPIC’s Speaker Series on California’s Future invites thought leaders and changemakers with diverse perspectives to participate critically, constructively, and collaboratively in public conversations. The purpose is to give Californians a better understanding of how our leaders are addressing the challenges facing our state.

PPIC is a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it support, endorse, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. Any opinions expressed by event participants are theirs alone and do not necessarily reflect any position of the Public Policy Institute of California.