The a–g On Track Model provides school districts in California with a set of spreadsheets that can help them predict individual students’ probability of meeting the a–g coursework requirements by the time they finish grade 12. Districts can use data gathered either in grade 6 or grade 7, which allows them to target assistance to students the following school year, when they enter grade 7 or grade 8.
The model is based on statistical analysis of similar data from the San Diego Unified School District, conducted by members of the San Diego Education Research Alliance at UCSD (sandera.ucsd.edu).
A district can download the spreadsheets, then test (or “validate”) the model by entering data from a cohort from the district that has already graduated. Once the model has been validated, the district can input basic data and obtain each student’s predicted probability of completing individual a–g coursework—history/social studies, English Language Arts (ELA), mathematics, science, and world languages—and also the overall a–g requirement.
The model uses various measures of students’ academic preparation as of either grade 6 or grade 7, as well as grade-5 scores on the California Standards Test (CST) in science, if available.
The model consists of validation and forecasting spreadsheets for grade 6 and validation and forecasting spreadsheets for grade 7.
Accompanying the model is an instruction manual which explains how to use each spreadsheet.