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Data Set

CAHSEE Early Warning Model

The CAHSEE Early Warning Model provides school districts in California with a spreadsheet model that they can use to predict individual students’ probability of passing the California High School Exit Exam (CAHSEE) when they reach grade 10. Districts can use data gathered either in grade 6 or grade 8, which allows them to target assistance to students the following school year, when they enter grade 7 or grade 9.

The model is based on statistical analysis of similar data from the San Diego Unified School District, conducted by members of the San Diego Education Research Alliance at UCSD (

A district can download the spreadsheets, then test (or “validate”) the model by entering data from a cohort from the district that has already taken the exam. Once the model has been validated, the district can input basic data and obtain each student’s predicted probability of passing each exam component (mathematics and English Language Arts, or ELA) and also the overall exam in grade 10.

A key advantage of this model is that it does not rely on a single test score or grade to estimate these probabilities but combines data from multiple sources that districts should have readily available.

The model consists of validation and forecasting spreadsheets for grade 6 and validation and forecasting spreadsheets for grade 8.

Accompanying the model is an instruction manual which explains how to use each spreadsheet.

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K–12 Education
Public Policy Institute of California