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Statewide Survey, Event Briefing 0219

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object(Timber\Post)#3742 (44) { ["ImageClass"]=> string(12) "Timber\Image" ["PostClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Post" ["TermClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Term" ["object_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["custom"]=> array(5) { ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(37) "eventbriefing_statewidesurvey0219.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "482745" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(8881) "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government February 7, 2019 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, Lunna Lopes Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  State issues  National issues  Conclusions 2 PPIC Statewide Survey mission  Provide timely, relevant, nonpartisan data on political, social, and economic opinions  Inform and improve state policymaking, raise awareness, encourage discussion  Provide a voice for all Californians in important state policy debates – 350,000+ Californians interviewed since 1998 – 170+ general, issue, and regional surveys 3 Californians and Their Government  General series funded by the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle  Telephone interviews, January 20‒29, 2019 – 70% cell phone, 30% landline – 1,707 adults, ± 3.3% margin of error – 1,154 likely voters, ± 4.0% margin of error  Views on state elected officials, overall mood, and state budget  Opinions on federal elected officials, the partial government shutdown, and race relations 4 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  State issues  National issues  Conclusions 5 Approval ratings of state elected officials 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 49 44 All adults 43 46 Likely voters 69 63 Dem Governor Newsom California Legislature 22 16 Rep 37 38 Ind 6 Top issue for the governor and legislature Which one issue facing California today do you think is the most important for the governor and state legislature to work on in 2019? % all adults 40 2018 2019 20 20 15 11 8 9 10 8 5 56 0 Immigration, illegal immigration Education, Jobs, economy Environment, Homelessness schools, pollution, global teachers warming 7 Outlook for cooperation among state leaders Do you think that Governor Newsom and the state legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year, or not? % all adults 100 80 60 40 20 0 Yes, will be able to No, will not be able to 67 22 8 Outlook for the state Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? Don't know 5% Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? Don't know 9% Wrong direction 40% Right direction 55% All adults Bad times 42% Good times 49% 9 Knowledge of state spending and revenue I’m going to name some of the largest areas for state spending. Please tell me the one that represents the most spending in the state budget. I’m going to name some of the largest areas for state revenues. Please tell me the one that represents the most revenue for the state budget. Don't Higher education know 5% 10% K–12 public education 16% Health and human services 35% Motor vehicle fees 17% Don't know 5% Personal income tax 33% Prisons and corrections 33% All adults Corporate tax 22% Sales tax 23% 10 Highest priority for state spending Thinking about these four areas of state spending, I’d like you to name the one you think should have the highest priority when it comes to state government spending. % all adults 100 80 60 46 40 32 20 0 K–12 public Health and education human services 16 4 3 Higher Prisons and Don't know education corrections 11 % all adults Perception that the state budget situation is a big problem 80 60 40 40 20 0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 12 Support for the governor’s proposed budget Governor Newsom recently proposed a budget plan for the next fiscal year that includes $144 billion dollars in General Fund spending…. In general, do you favor or oppose the governor’s budget plan? 100 80 60 % 40 20 70 22 64 26 0 All adults Likely voters 83 9 Dem Favor Oppose 54 35 62 30 Rep Ind 13 Support for spending proposals Next, the state is projected to have a budget surplus of several billion dollars.... Please say if you favor or oppose the following proposals. 100 80 60 % 40 77 78 72 70 20 0 All adults Likely voters $1.8 billion for early childhood $832 million for higher education 89 91 70 67 47 46 Dem Rep Ind 14 Views of Proposition 13 Overall, do you feel passing Proposition 13 turned out to be mostly a good thing for California or mostly a bad thing? 100 80 60 % 40 20 61 25 64 24 0 All adults Likely voters 58 28 Dem Mostly a good thing Mostly a bad thing 67 59 28 23 Rep Ind 15 Support for a split roll property tax % all adults 80 60 47 40 43 20 0 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 16 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  State issues  National issues  Conclusions 17 Approval of federal elected officials % adults 100 80 60 40 33 20 30 0 President Trump US Congress 34 30 President Trump 100 US Congress 80 77 60 % 40 20 30 34 36 23 0 All adults Likely voters 32 9 Dem 21 Rep 38 25 Ind 18 Outlook for cooperation among federal leaders Do you think that President Trump and the US Congress will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year, or not? % all adults 100 80 60 40 20 0 Yes, will be able to No, will not be able to 72 25 19 Approval ratings of congressional leaders 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 48 32 All adults 50 28 Likely voters House Speaker Nancy Pelosi House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy 77 24 Dem 44 14 Rep 45 33 Ind 20 Outlook for the nation Do you think things in the United States are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? Don't know 3% Right direction 30% Wrong direction 66% All adults How much do you think Democratic control of the House will change the way things are going in this country—a lot, some, not much, or not at all? 100 Some A lot 80 60 46 % 38 41 40 20 28 29 0 All adults Likely voters 35 Dem 34 24 Rep 42 17 Ind 21 Partial government shutdown As you may know, the federal government was partially shut down because Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress and Democrats in Congress could not agree on laws about border security. Who do you think was mainly responsible for this situation? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 64 24 All adults 58 31 Likely voters Trump and Republicans in Congress Democrats in Congress 87 71 52 16 6 33 Dem Rep Ind 22 Illegal immigration at the border Do you think the situation with illegal immigration across the US-Mexico border is currently a crisis, a serious problem but not a crisis, or not a serious problem? 100 80 60 % 40 20 27 % saying a crisis 58 28 14 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Rep 28 Ind 23 Support for a wall along the border with Mexico All in all, would you favor or oppose building a wall along the entire border with Mexico? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 69 28 56 39 Californians Adults nationwide in CNN poll 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 62 35 Likely voters 88 11 Dem 76 21 Rep Favor Oppose 61 37 Ind 24 Political divisions in the nation These days, do you feel optimistic or pessimistic that Americans of different political views can still come together and work out their differences? 100 80 % 60 40 58 40 48 49 52 44 20 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Optimistic Pessimistic 49 50 52 44 Rep Ind 25 Race relations in the nation What is your opinion with regard to race relations in the United States today? Would you say things are better, about the same, or worse than they were a year ago? 100 80 60 % 40 45 % saying things are worse 66 45 38 20 0 All adults African Asian Americans Americans Latinos 45 Whites 26 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  State issues  National issues  Conclusions 27 Conclusions  A plurality of Californians approve of Governor Newsom. A record-high share say state leaders will be able to work together and accomplish a lot.  Most Californians favor the governor’s budget and his plans to increase funding for preschool and higher education.  Majorities of Californians say Proposition 13 has been a good thing for California, yet they are divided on a split roll property tax reform.  Most Californians blame President Trump and Republicans in Congress for the recent partial federal government shutdown.  Majorities of Californians disapprove of President Trump and Congress. A record-low share say federal leaders will be able to work together and accomplish a lot.  Californians view immigration as the top issue facing the state today. Majorities across regions oppose building a wall. 28 PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government February 7, 2019 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, Lunna Lopes Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle Notes on the use of these slides These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid misinterpretations, please contact: Alyssa Dykman (dykman@ppic.org; 415-291-4475) Thank you for your interest in this work. 30" } ["___content":protected]=> string(156) "

Statewide Survey, Event Briefing 0219

" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(125) "https://www.ppic.org/event/statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-january-2019/eventbriefing_statewidesurvey0219/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(18280) ["ID"]=> int(18280) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "9" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2019-02-07 09:03:01" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(18230) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(37) "Statewide Survey, Event Briefing 0219" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(33) "eventbriefing_statewidesurvey0219" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(37) "eventbriefing_statewidesurvey0219.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "482745" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(8881) "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government February 7, 2019 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, Lunna Lopes Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  State issues  National issues  Conclusions 2 PPIC Statewide Survey mission  Provide timely, relevant, nonpartisan data on political, social, and economic opinions  Inform and improve state policymaking, raise awareness, encourage discussion  Provide a voice for all Californians in important state policy debates – 350,000+ Californians interviewed since 1998 – 170+ general, issue, and regional surveys 3 Californians and Their Government  General series funded by the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle  Telephone interviews, January 20‒29, 2019 – 70% cell phone, 30% landline – 1,707 adults, ± 3.3% margin of error – 1,154 likely voters, ± 4.0% margin of error  Views on state elected officials, overall mood, and state budget  Opinions on federal elected officials, the partial government shutdown, and race relations 4 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  State issues  National issues  Conclusions 5 Approval ratings of state elected officials 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 49 44 All adults 43 46 Likely voters 69 63 Dem Governor Newsom California Legislature 22 16 Rep 37 38 Ind 6 Top issue for the governor and legislature Which one issue facing California today do you think is the most important for the governor and state legislature to work on in 2019? % all adults 40 2018 2019 20 20 15 11 8 9 10 8 5 56 0 Immigration, illegal immigration Education, Jobs, economy Environment, Homelessness schools, pollution, global teachers warming 7 Outlook for cooperation among state leaders Do you think that Governor Newsom and the state legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year, or not? % all adults 100 80 60 40 20 0 Yes, will be able to No, will not be able to 67 22 8 Outlook for the state Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? Don't know 5% Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? Don't know 9% Wrong direction 40% Right direction 55% All adults Bad times 42% Good times 49% 9 Knowledge of state spending and revenue I’m going to name some of the largest areas for state spending. Please tell me the one that represents the most spending in the state budget. I’m going to name some of the largest areas for state revenues. Please tell me the one that represents the most revenue for the state budget. Don't Higher education know 5% 10% K–12 public education 16% Health and human services 35% Motor vehicle fees 17% Don't know 5% Personal income tax 33% Prisons and corrections 33% All adults Corporate tax 22% Sales tax 23% 10 Highest priority for state spending Thinking about these four areas of state spending, I’d like you to name the one you think should have the highest priority when it comes to state government spending. % all adults 100 80 60 46 40 32 20 0 K–12 public Health and education human services 16 4 3 Higher Prisons and Don't know education corrections 11 % all adults Perception that the state budget situation is a big problem 80 60 40 40 20 0 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 12 Support for the governor’s proposed budget Governor Newsom recently proposed a budget plan for the next fiscal year that includes $144 billion dollars in General Fund spending…. In general, do you favor or oppose the governor’s budget plan? 100 80 60 % 40 20 70 22 64 26 0 All adults Likely voters 83 9 Dem Favor Oppose 54 35 62 30 Rep Ind 13 Support for spending proposals Next, the state is projected to have a budget surplus of several billion dollars.... Please say if you favor or oppose the following proposals. 100 80 60 % 40 77 78 72 70 20 0 All adults Likely voters $1.8 billion for early childhood $832 million for higher education 89 91 70 67 47 46 Dem Rep Ind 14 Views of Proposition 13 Overall, do you feel passing Proposition 13 turned out to be mostly a good thing for California or mostly a bad thing? 100 80 60 % 40 20 61 25 64 24 0 All adults Likely voters 58 28 Dem Mostly a good thing Mostly a bad thing 67 59 28 23 Rep Ind 15 Support for a split roll property tax % all adults 80 60 47 40 43 20 0 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 16 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  State issues  National issues  Conclusions 17 Approval of federal elected officials % adults 100 80 60 40 33 20 30 0 President Trump US Congress 34 30 President Trump 100 US Congress 80 77 60 % 40 20 30 34 36 23 0 All adults Likely voters 32 9 Dem 21 Rep 38 25 Ind 18 Outlook for cooperation among federal leaders Do you think that President Trump and the US Congress will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year, or not? % all adults 100 80 60 40 20 0 Yes, will be able to No, will not be able to 72 25 19 Approval ratings of congressional leaders 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 48 32 All adults 50 28 Likely voters House Speaker Nancy Pelosi House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy 77 24 Dem 44 14 Rep 45 33 Ind 20 Outlook for the nation Do you think things in the United States are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? Don't know 3% Right direction 30% Wrong direction 66% All adults How much do you think Democratic control of the House will change the way things are going in this country—a lot, some, not much, or not at all? 100 Some A lot 80 60 46 % 38 41 40 20 28 29 0 All adults Likely voters 35 Dem 34 24 Rep 42 17 Ind 21 Partial government shutdown As you may know, the federal government was partially shut down because Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress and Democrats in Congress could not agree on laws about border security. Who do you think was mainly responsible for this situation? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 64 24 All adults 58 31 Likely voters Trump and Republicans in Congress Democrats in Congress 87 71 52 16 6 33 Dem Rep Ind 22 Illegal immigration at the border Do you think the situation with illegal immigration across the US-Mexico border is currently a crisis, a serious problem but not a crisis, or not a serious problem? 100 80 60 % 40 20 27 % saying a crisis 58 28 14 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Rep 28 Ind 23 Support for a wall along the border with Mexico All in all, would you favor or oppose building a wall along the entire border with Mexico? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 69 28 56 39 Californians Adults nationwide in CNN poll 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 62 35 Likely voters 88 11 Dem 76 21 Rep Favor Oppose 61 37 Ind 24 Political divisions in the nation These days, do you feel optimistic or pessimistic that Americans of different political views can still come together and work out their differences? 100 80 % 60 40 58 40 48 49 52 44 20 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Optimistic Pessimistic 49 50 52 44 Rep Ind 25 Race relations in the nation What is your opinion with regard to race relations in the United States today? Would you say things are better, about the same, or worse than they were a year ago? 100 80 60 % 40 45 % saying things are worse 66 45 38 20 0 All adults African Asian Americans Americans Latinos 45 Whites 26 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  State issues  National issues  Conclusions 27 Conclusions  A plurality of Californians approve of Governor Newsom. A record-high share say state leaders will be able to work together and accomplish a lot.  Most Californians favor the governor’s budget and his plans to increase funding for preschool and higher education.  Majorities of Californians say Proposition 13 has been a good thing for California, yet they are divided on a split roll property tax reform.  Most Californians blame President Trump and Republicans in Congress for the recent partial federal government shutdown.  Majorities of Californians disapprove of President Trump and Congress. A record-low share say federal leaders will be able to work together and accomplish a lot.  Californians view immigration as the top issue facing the state today. Majorities across regions oppose building a wall. 28 PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government February 7, 2019 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, Lunna Lopes Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle Notes on the use of these slides These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. 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