Donate
Independent, objective, nonpartisan research

Eventbriefing Statewidesurvey0318

Database

This is the content currently stored in the post and postmeta tables.

View live version

object(Timber\Post)#3742 (44) { ["ImageClass"]=> string(12) "Timber\Image" ["PostClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Post" ["TermClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Term" ["object_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["custom"]=> array(5) { ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(37) "eventbriefing_statewidesurvey0318.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "446204" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(9977) "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government March 22, 2018 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, Lunna Lopes Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 2 PPIC Statewide Survey mission  Provide timely, relevant, nonpartisan data on political, social, and economic opinions  Inform and improve state policymaking, raise awareness, encourage discussion  Provide a voice for all Californians in important state policy debates – 345,000+ Californians interviewed since 1998 – 160+ general, issue, and regional surveys 3 Californians and Their Government  General series funded by the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle  Telephone interviews, March 4‒13, 2018 – 70% cell phone, 30% landline – 1,706 adults, ± 3.4% margin of error – 931 likely voters, ± 4.5% margin of error  Views on gubernatorial and US Senate elections and bond measures  Opinions on state and federal elected officials, water policy, high- speed rail, the state and local tax system, and immigration policy 4 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 5 Gubernatorial candidate preference Gavin Newsom John Cox Antonio Villaraigosa Travis Allen John Chiang Delaine Eastin Someone else Don’t know 6 5 1 14 12 10 28 24 0 20 40 % likely voters 60 6 Satisfaction with gubernatorial candidates In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the primary election for governor this June? 100 80 60 % 40 20 55 29 71 15 0 All likely voters Dem 42 44 Rep Satisfied Not satisfied 48 32 58 30 54 29 60 27 Ind Latinos Whites Other racial/ ethnic groups 7 Top issues for candidates to discuss Which one issue would you like to hear the candidates for governor talk about between now and the June primary? % likely voters 60 40 23 20 10 8 0 Immigration or Guns, gun illegal control, and immigration school safety Jobs, the economy 88 Education, state budget, schools, deficit, taxes teachers 8 US Senate race Candidate preference Don’t know 39% Dianne Feinstein 42% Someon e else 2% Kevin de León 16% % likely voters Satisfaction with choice of candidates 100 Satisfied Not satisfied 80 73 72 60 47 44 40 20 22 21 48 36 0 All likely voters Dem Rep Ind 9 Importance of 2018 midterms Is voting this year more important to you than in past midterm elections, less important, or about the same? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 51 48 All likely voters 59 41 Dem More important About the same 56 42 55 42 Rep Ind 10 November 2018 House races If the 2018 election for US House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district? (If other/unsure: As of today, do you lean more toward the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate? % registered voters % likely voters 100 80 60 58 40 34 54 38 20 0 California registered Registered voters voters nationwide in CNN poll 100 80 60 53 39 40 20 Would vote or lean Dem Would vote or lean Rep 58 32 56 38 0 All likely Democratic- Republican- voters held seats held seats 11 Support for state bonds If the state ballot had a bond measure to pay for _______ projects, would you vote yes or no? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 66 64 All likely voters 85 78 Dem Water infrastructure Affordable housing 66 64 51 33 Rep Ind 12 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 13 Approval of state elected officials % adults Governor Brown Governor Brown 100 California Legislature California Legislature 100 80 80 77 66 60 51 % 60 51 46 54 45 43 40 46 40 38 20 20 20 17 00 All adults Likely Dem Rep Ind voters 14 Water supply Would you say that the supply of water is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem in your part of California? 80 60 % 40 20 Big problem Somewhat of a problem Not a problem 45 31 23 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 15 Importance of Delta tunnels The governor has proposed to improve the 100 reliability of water supplies by building tunnels in the 80 Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta—starting with one 60 tunnel and then adding % a second tunnel in the 40 future. How important is this proposal for the future quality of life and 20 economic vitality of California? 0 30 48 All adults 25 42 Central Valley 32 53 Inland Empire Somewhat important Very important 31 32 28 55 44 46 Los Angeles Orange/ San San Diego Francisco Bay Area 16 Importance of high-speed rail Thinking ahead, how important is the highspeed rail system for the future quality of life and economic vitality of California—is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 100 80 60 % 40 20 29 35 0 All adults 21 29 Central Valley 33 31 Inland Empire Somewhat important Very important 25 32 33 47 38 30 Los Angeles Orange/ San San Diego Francisco Bay Area 17 Support for high-speed rail As you may know, California voters passed a $10 billion state bond in 2008.… Do you favor or oppose building a high-speed rail system in California? All adults Likely voters Dem Ind Rep 0 53 43 46 52 67 29 48 48 Favor Oppose 28 69 20 40 60 80 % 18 California’s tax burden compared to other states Where do you think California currently ranks in state and local tax 100 Above average Near the top burden per capita? Compared to other states, 80 is California’s tax burden per capita near the top, 60 23 23 27 23 above average, below % 21 average, or near the 40 bottom? 58 49 53 58 20 40 0 All adults Likely voters Under $40,000 to $80,000 $40,000 under $80,000 or more 19 Personal tax burden When you combine all of the taxes you pay to state and local governments, 100 Somewhat more Much more do you feel that you pay 80 much more than you should, somewhat more than you should, about the right amount, or less 60 % 19 20 15 26 than you should? 40 16 20 37 41 31 43 39 0 All adults Likely voters Under $40,000 to $80,000 $40,000 under $80,000 or more 20 Approval of federal elected officials % adults 100 80 60 40 33 20 30 0 President Trump US Congress 30 29 President Trump US Congress 100 80 78 % 60 40 20 30 29 37 22 0 All adults Likely voters 19 8 Dem 30 Rep 30 25 Ind 21 Approval of federal elected officials 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 52 45 41 All adults 54 53 45 Likely voters 75 62 62 Dem Dianne Feinstein Kamala Harris Own rep in House 38 24 16 50 42 45 Rep Ind 22 State and local action to protect undocumented immigrants Do you favor or oppose the California state and local governments making their own policies and taking actions, separate from the federal government, to protect the legal rights of undocumented immigrants in California? 100 80 60 % 40 20 61 36 55 43 79 18 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Favor Oppose 78 54 41 21 Rep Ind 23 Federal crackdown on undocumented immigrants Do you think the federal crackdown on undocumented immigrants is a good thing for the country or a bad thing for the country? 100 80 74 60 % 40 51 39 20 49 44 19 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Good thing Bad thing 81 55 36 13 Rep Ind 24 Opposition to building a wall along Mexican border All in all, would you 100 % oppose favor or oppose building a wall along 80 71 74 76 76 the entire border 66 64 with Mexico? 60 % 40 20 0 All adults Central Valley Inland Empire Los Orange/ San Francisco Angeles San Diego Bay Area 25 Laws covering sale of guns In general, do you think laws covering the sale of guns should be made more strict, less strict, or kept as they are now? 100 87 80 73 70 68 60 % 40 20 0 21 5 All adults 24 6 Likely voters 48 41 10 3 Dem 11 Rep 24 7 Ind 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 More strict Less strict Kept as they are now 73 65 21 5 California 26 6 Adults nationwide in CBS News poll 26 Federal tax law Do you approve or disapprove of the tax law passed by Donald Trump and Congress in December? 100 80 60 % 40 61 30 58 36 86 20 10 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Approve Disapprove 71 60 31 19 Rep Ind 27 Impact of new tax law Do you think the overall effect of the tax law on you and your family over the coming years will be mostly positive, mostly negative, or will it not affect you much either way? All adults Likely voters Dem 24 27 11 29 28 29 Ind 23 29 42 40 56 43 Rep 50 33 14 0% 20% Mostly positive 40% 60% Not much of an effect 80% 100% Mostly negative 28 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 29 Conclusions  Newsom solidifies lead in gubernatorial primary as Cox gains ground and Villaraigosa falls back. In the US Senate race, Feinstein continues to lead de León by double digits; a third of likely voters remain undecided.  Half of likely voters say voting this year is more important to them than in past midterm elections, with Democrats more likely than Republicans to hold this view.  A record-high share of adults think California ranks near the top in the state and local tax burden per capita and most Californians oppose the new federal tax law.  With federal-state tension rising, Californians continue to support state and local governments making their own policies to protect undocumented immigrants.  A record-high share of Californians support stricter laws covering the sale of guns. 30 PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government March 22, 2018 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, Lunna Lopes Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle Notes on the use of these slides These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid misinterpretations, please contact: Dean Bonner (bonner@ppic.org; 415-291-4497) Thank you for your interest in this work. 32" } ["___content":protected]=> string(152) "

Eventbriefing Statewidesurvey0318

" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(123) "https://www.ppic.org/event/statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-march-2018/eventbriefing_statewidesurvey0318/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(14355) ["ID"]=> int(14355) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "9" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2018-03-22 13:02:42" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(14209) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(33) "Eventbriefing Statewidesurvey0318" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(33) "eventbriefing_statewidesurvey0318" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(37) "eventbriefing_statewidesurvey0318.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "446204" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(9977) "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government March 22, 2018 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, Lunna Lopes Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 2 PPIC Statewide Survey mission  Provide timely, relevant, nonpartisan data on political, social, and economic opinions  Inform and improve state policymaking, raise awareness, encourage discussion  Provide a voice for all Californians in important state policy debates – 345,000+ Californians interviewed since 1998 – 160+ general, issue, and regional surveys 3 Californians and Their Government  General series funded by the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle  Telephone interviews, March 4‒13, 2018 – 70% cell phone, 30% landline – 1,706 adults, ± 3.4% margin of error – 931 likely voters, ± 4.5% margin of error  Views on gubernatorial and US Senate elections and bond measures  Opinions on state and federal elected officials, water policy, high- speed rail, the state and local tax system, and immigration policy 4 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 5 Gubernatorial candidate preference Gavin Newsom John Cox Antonio Villaraigosa Travis Allen John Chiang Delaine Eastin Someone else Don’t know 6 5 1 14 12 10 28 24 0 20 40 % likely voters 60 6 Satisfaction with gubernatorial candidates In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the primary election for governor this June? 100 80 60 % 40 20 55 29 71 15 0 All likely voters Dem 42 44 Rep Satisfied Not satisfied 48 32 58 30 54 29 60 27 Ind Latinos Whites Other racial/ ethnic groups 7 Top issues for candidates to discuss Which one issue would you like to hear the candidates for governor talk about between now and the June primary? % likely voters 60 40 23 20 10 8 0 Immigration or Guns, gun illegal control, and immigration school safety Jobs, the economy 88 Education, state budget, schools, deficit, taxes teachers 8 US Senate race Candidate preference Don’t know 39% Dianne Feinstein 42% Someon e else 2% Kevin de León 16% % likely voters Satisfaction with choice of candidates 100 Satisfied Not satisfied 80 73 72 60 47 44 40 20 22 21 48 36 0 All likely voters Dem Rep Ind 9 Importance of 2018 midterms Is voting this year more important to you than in past midterm elections, less important, or about the same? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 51 48 All likely voters 59 41 Dem More important About the same 56 42 55 42 Rep Ind 10 November 2018 House races If the 2018 election for US House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district? (If other/unsure: As of today, do you lean more toward the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate? % registered voters % likely voters 100 80 60 58 40 34 54 38 20 0 California registered Registered voters voters nationwide in CNN poll 100 80 60 53 39 40 20 Would vote or lean Dem Would vote or lean Rep 58 32 56 38 0 All likely Democratic- Republican- voters held seats held seats 11 Support for state bonds If the state ballot had a bond measure to pay for _______ projects, would you vote yes or no? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 66 64 All likely voters 85 78 Dem Water infrastructure Affordable housing 66 64 51 33 Rep Ind 12 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 13 Approval of state elected officials % adults Governor Brown Governor Brown 100 California Legislature California Legislature 100 80 80 77 66 60 51 % 60 51 46 54 45 43 40 46 40 38 20 20 20 17 00 All adults Likely Dem Rep Ind voters 14 Water supply Would you say that the supply of water is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem in your part of California? 80 60 % 40 20 Big problem Somewhat of a problem Not a problem 45 31 23 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 15 Importance of Delta tunnels The governor has proposed to improve the 100 reliability of water supplies by building tunnels in the 80 Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta—starting with one 60 tunnel and then adding % a second tunnel in the 40 future. How important is this proposal for the future quality of life and 20 economic vitality of California? 0 30 48 All adults 25 42 Central Valley 32 53 Inland Empire Somewhat important Very important 31 32 28 55 44 46 Los Angeles Orange/ San San Diego Francisco Bay Area 16 Importance of high-speed rail Thinking ahead, how important is the highspeed rail system for the future quality of life and economic vitality of California—is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 100 80 60 % 40 20 29 35 0 All adults 21 29 Central Valley 33 31 Inland Empire Somewhat important Very important 25 32 33 47 38 30 Los Angeles Orange/ San San Diego Francisco Bay Area 17 Support for high-speed rail As you may know, California voters passed a $10 billion state bond in 2008.… Do you favor or oppose building a high-speed rail system in California? All adults Likely voters Dem Ind Rep 0 53 43 46 52 67 29 48 48 Favor Oppose 28 69 20 40 60 80 % 18 California’s tax burden compared to other states Where do you think California currently ranks in state and local tax 100 Above average Near the top burden per capita? Compared to other states, 80 is California’s tax burden per capita near the top, 60 23 23 27 23 above average, below % 21 average, or near the 40 bottom? 58 49 53 58 20 40 0 All adults Likely voters Under $40,000 to $80,000 $40,000 under $80,000 or more 19 Personal tax burden When you combine all of the taxes you pay to state and local governments, 100 Somewhat more Much more do you feel that you pay 80 much more than you should, somewhat more than you should, about the right amount, or less 60 % 19 20 15 26 than you should? 40 16 20 37 41 31 43 39 0 All adults Likely voters Under $40,000 to $80,000 $40,000 under $80,000 or more 20 Approval of federal elected officials % adults 100 80 60 40 33 20 30 0 President Trump US Congress 30 29 President Trump US Congress 100 80 78 % 60 40 20 30 29 37 22 0 All adults Likely voters 19 8 Dem 30 Rep 30 25 Ind 21 Approval of federal elected officials 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 52 45 41 All adults 54 53 45 Likely voters 75 62 62 Dem Dianne Feinstein Kamala Harris Own rep in House 38 24 16 50 42 45 Rep Ind 22 State and local action to protect undocumented immigrants Do you favor or oppose the California state and local governments making their own policies and taking actions, separate from the federal government, to protect the legal rights of undocumented immigrants in California? 100 80 60 % 40 20 61 36 55 43 79 18 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Favor Oppose 78 54 41 21 Rep Ind 23 Federal crackdown on undocumented immigrants Do you think the federal crackdown on undocumented immigrants is a good thing for the country or a bad thing for the country? 100 80 74 60 % 40 51 39 20 49 44 19 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Good thing Bad thing 81 55 36 13 Rep Ind 24 Opposition to building a wall along Mexican border All in all, would you 100 % oppose favor or oppose building a wall along 80 71 74 76 76 the entire border 66 64 with Mexico? 60 % 40 20 0 All adults Central Valley Inland Empire Los Orange/ San Francisco Angeles San Diego Bay Area 25 Laws covering sale of guns In general, do you think laws covering the sale of guns should be made more strict, less strict, or kept as they are now? 100 87 80 73 70 68 60 % 40 20 0 21 5 All adults 24 6 Likely voters 48 41 10 3 Dem 11 Rep 24 7 Ind 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 More strict Less strict Kept as they are now 73 65 21 5 California 26 6 Adults nationwide in CBS News poll 26 Federal tax law Do you approve or disapprove of the tax law passed by Donald Trump and Congress in December? 100 80 60 % 40 61 30 58 36 86 20 10 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Approve Disapprove 71 60 31 19 Rep Ind 27 Impact of new tax law Do you think the overall effect of the tax law on you and your family over the coming years will be mostly positive, mostly negative, or will it not affect you much either way? All adults Likely voters Dem 24 27 11 29 28 29 Ind 23 29 42 40 56 43 Rep 50 33 14 0% 20% Mostly positive 40% 60% Not much of an effect 80% 100% Mostly negative 28 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 29 Conclusions  Newsom solidifies lead in gubernatorial primary as Cox gains ground and Villaraigosa falls back. In the US Senate race, Feinstein continues to lead de León by double digits; a third of likely voters remain undecided.  Half of likely voters say voting this year is more important to them than in past midterm elections, with Democrats more likely than Republicans to hold this view.  A record-high share of adults think California ranks near the top in the state and local tax burden per capita and most Californians oppose the new federal tax law.  With federal-state tension rising, Californians continue to support state and local governments making their own policies to protect undocumented immigrants.  A record-high share of Californians support stricter laws covering the sale of guns. 30 PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government March 22, 2018 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, Lunna Lopes Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle Notes on the use of these slides These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid misinterpretations, please contact: Dean Bonner (bonner@ppic.org; 415-291-4497) Thank you for your interest in this work. 32" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2018-03-22 20:02:42" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(33) "eventbriefing_statewidesurvey0318" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2018-03-22 13:02:42" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2018-03-22 20:02:42" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["guid"]=> string(76) "http://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/eventbriefing_statewidesurvey0318.pdf" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_mime_type"]=> string(15) "application/pdf" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" ["status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["attachment_authors"]=> bool(false) }