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Statewide Survey, Event Briefing 0319

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Is this a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem in California today? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 35 34 29 34 All adults Likely voters 40 25 Dem Somewhat of a problem Big problem 25 32 49 34 Rep Ind 9 Proposal to pay down unfunded liabilities Governor Newsom’s 100 state budget proposes allocating $5.3 billion 80 in additional one-time spending to pay down 60 unfunded liabilities in % the state and local public employee 40 pension systems. Do you favor or oppose 20 this proposal? 0 47 36 All adults 43 41 Likely voters 60 24 Dem 63 24 Rep Favor Oppose 45 38 Ind 10 Poverty How much of a problem is poverty in 100 Somewhat of a problem Big problem your part of 80 California? Is it a big problem, somewhat 32 60 35 30 27 34 35 of a problem, or not % much of a problem? 40 51 20 53 53 59 44 45 0 All adults Central Valley Inland Empire Los Orange/ San Francisco Angeles San Diego Bay Area 11 Earned income tax credit (EITC) proposal Governor Newsom’s budget proposal allocates about $1 billion to the state’s earned income tax credit to expand eligibility and payments for lowincome working individuals and families. Do you favor or oppose this proposal? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 73 21 All adults 71 25 Central Valley Favor Oppose 73 75 75 67 23 26 17 18 Inland Empire Los Orange/ San Francisco Angeles San Diego Bay Area 12 Housing costs and moving Does the cost of your housing make you and your family seriously consider moving away from the part of California you live in now? 55 and older 35 to 54 Yes, elsewhere in CA 6 30 10 36 Yes, outside of the state Yes, other 2 61 3 52 No Does it make you consider moving elsewhere in California, or outside of the state? 18 to 34 13 All adults 9 0 40 3 35 20 3 40 % 60 44 52 80 100 13 Housing affordability How much of a problem is housing affordability in your part of California? Is it a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem? 100 80 60 % 40 20 21 68 0 All adults Somewhat of a problem Big problem 19 18 14 25 32 74 71 80 56 49 Central Valley Inland Empire Los Angeles Orange/ San San Diego Francisco Bay Area 14 Proposal to increase housing production Governor Newsom’s budget proposal allocates $1.8 billion in one-time spending to increase housing production, including an expansion of state tax credits to develop low- and moderateincome housing. Do you favor or oppose this proposal? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 72 24 All adults 71 24 Central Valley Favor Oppose 78 73 69 64 29 31 22 18 Inland Empire Los Orange/ San Francisco Angeles San Diego Bay Area 15 Wildfires How much of a problem is the threat of wildfires in your part of California? Is it a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem? 100 80 60 % 40 30 20 40 0 All adults Somewhat of a problem Big problem 34 28 33 27 33 38 39 36 47 39 Central Valley Inland Empire Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego San Francisco Bay Area 16 Proposal for one-time spending to combat wildfires Governor Newsom’s budget proposal allocates $415 million in one-time spending for wildfire preparedness, response, and recovery and forest management. Do you favor or oppose this proposal? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 81 15 All adults 84 14 Central Valley Favor Oppose 89 79 79 68 24 16 16 9 Inland Empire Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego San Francisco Bay Area 17 Scaling back the high-speed rail Governor Newsom 100 proposes to scale back the high-speed 80 rail project and complete the 60 construction underway % for a high-speed rail from Bakersfield to 40 Merced…. Do you think that Governor 20 Newsom’s proposal is a good idea or a bad idea? 0 53 36 All adults 45 42 Likely voters 56 35 Dem Good idea Bad idea 55 31 47 41 Rep Ind 18 Scaling back the Delta tunnels Governor Newsom 100 proposes to scale back the Delta project 80 and build one tunnel. Do you think that Governor Newsom’s proposal is a good 60 % idea or a bad idea? 40 20 52 32 47 34 56 25 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Good idea Bad idea 42 38 50 38 Rep Ind 19 Death penalty versus life imprisonment Which of the following statements do you agree with more? The penalty for first-degree murder should be the death penalty; or the penalty for first-degree murder should be life imprisonment with absolutely no possibility of parole. % all adults 100 80 60 49 40 47 20 53 38 54 55 Death penalty Life imprisonment 62 39 38 31 0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 20 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  State issues  National issues  Conclusions 21 Approval ratings of federal elected officials 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 52 36 29 All adults 51 34 29 Likely voters 69 41 7 Dem President Trump US Congress 75 Own representative 33 21 50 27 29 Rep Ind 22 Approval of US senators 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 47 45 All adults 48 48 Likely voters 71 66 Dem Dianne Feinstein Kamala Harris 23 17 Rep 40 41 Ind 23 Harris running for president in 2020 Do you think Kamala Harris should run for US President in 2020, or not? 100 80 60 % 40 45 40 52 38 54 35 20 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Should run Should not run 75 50 35 17 Rep Ind 24 Tax law passed by President Trump and Congress Do you approve or disapprove of the tax law passed by Donald Trump and Congress in 2017 that went into effect in 2018? 100 80 60 % 40 20 60 29 58 34 0 All adults Likely voters 81 10 Dem Approve Disapprove 71 57 29 21 Rep Ind 25 Impact of new tax law So far, do you think the overall effect of this 2017 tax law on you and your family is mostly positive, mostly negative, or it does not affect you much either way? Mostly positive All adults 14 Likely voters 18 Dem 6 Not much of an effect 41 42 40 Ind 15 41 Mostly negative 38 35 49 38 Rep 0 34 20 49 40 60 % 12 80 100 26 Declaring a national emergency along the border Do you think that Donald Trump should or should not have declared a national emergency in order to build a wall along the border with Mexico? 100 80 60 % 40 20 77 21 70 28 0 All adults Likely voters 94 5 Dem Should have Should not have 74 66 33 23 Rep Ind 27 State and local action to protect undocumented immigrants Do you favor or oppose the California state and local governments making their own policies and taking actions, separate from the federal government, to protect the legal rights of undocumented immigrants in California? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 61 34 54 43 All adults Likely voters 78 18 Dem Favor Oppose 78 55 41 18 Rep Ind 28 Affordable Care Act % adults 100 Generally favorable Generally unfavorable 100 Generally favorable Generally unfavorable 80 80 79 78 60 56 60 56 55 54 % 40 41 40 40 36 36 20 20 17 17 00 All adults Likely Dem Rep Ind voters 29 Proposal to expand Medi-Cal coverage Governor Newsom’s budget proposal allocates $196 million dollars to expand MediCal coverage to lowincome young adults ages 19 through 25 regardless of immigration status. Do you favor or oppose this proposal? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 64 32 54 44 All adults Likely voters 80 18 Dem Favor Oppose 78 57 40 19 Rep Ind 30 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  State issues  National issues  Conclusions 31 Conclusions  A plurality of Californians approve of Governor Newsom and the state legislature; a slim majority approve of their own state legislators.  Californians are divided on additional spending to pay down unfunded pension liabilities but support proposals to expand the state’s earned income tax credit, spur housing production, and combat wildfires.  Slim majorities support Newsom’s plans to scale back the high-speed rail and Delta tunnels.  Majorities disapprove of President Trump and Congress, while a slim majority approve of their own representatives in Congress.  Strong majorities of Californians do not agree with President Trump’s decision to declare an emergency along the US border; solid majorities support state and local action to protect the rights of undocumented immigrants. 32 PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government March 28, 2019 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, Rachel Ward Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle Notes on the use of these slides These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid misinterpretations, please contact: Dean Bonner (bonner@ppic.org; 415-291-4497) Thank you for your interest in this work. 34" } ["___content":protected]=> string(156) "

Statewide Survey, Event Briefing 0319

" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(123) "https://www.ppic.org/event/statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-march-2019/eventbriefing_statewidesurvey0319/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(18867) ["ID"]=> int(18867) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "9" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2019-03-28 09:20:00" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(18771) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(37) "Statewide Survey, Event Briefing 0319" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(33) "eventbriefing_statewidesurvey0319" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(37) "eventbriefing_statewidesurvey0319.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "456165" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(10869) "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government March 28, 2019 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, Rachel Ward Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  State issues  National issues  Conclusions 2 PPIC Statewide Survey mission  Provide timely, relevant, nonpartisan data on political, social, and economic opinions  Inform and improve state policymaking, raise awareness, encourage discussion  Provide a voice for all Californians in important state policy debates – 350,000+ Californians interviewed since 1998 – 170+ general, issue, and regional surveys 3 Californians and Their Government  General series funded by the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle  Telephone interviews, March 10‒19, 2019 – 70% cell phone, 30% landline – 1,706 adults, ± 3.4% margin of error – 1,112 likely voters, ± 4.3% margin of error  Views on state elected officials, pension benefits, poverty and income inequality, housing affordability, and wildfires  Opinions on federal elected officials and policy preferences for federal taxes, immigration, and health care 4 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  State issues  National issues  Conclusions 5 Approval ratings of state elected officials 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 51 45 46 All adults 45 42 48 Likely voters 65 65 67 Dem Governor Newsom California Legislature Own legislators 26 20 15 49 35 38 Rep Ind 6 California’s tax burden compared to other states Where do you think California currently ranks 100 Above average Near the top in state and local tax burden per capita? 80 27 Compared to other states, 25 is California’s tax burden 60 22 21 per capita near the top, % 21 above average, below 40 average, or near the bottom? 20 48 55 39 52 61 0 All adults Likely voters Under $40,000 to $80,000 $40,000 under $80,000 or more 7 Personal tax burden When you combine all of the taxes you pay to state 100 Somewhat more Much more and local governments, 80 do you feel that you pay much more than you 60 should, somewhat more than you should, about the right amount, or less % 40 21 23 19 24 27 than you should? 20 39 40 34 40 43 0 All adults Likely voters Under $40,000 to $80,000 $40,000 under $80,000 or more 8 Public employee retirement benefits At this time, how much of a problem for state and local government budgets is the amount of money that is being spent on their public employee pension or retirement systems? Is this a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem in California today? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 35 34 29 34 All adults Likely voters 40 25 Dem Somewhat of a problem Big problem 25 32 49 34 Rep Ind 9 Proposal to pay down unfunded liabilities Governor Newsom’s 100 state budget proposes allocating $5.3 billion 80 in additional one-time spending to pay down 60 unfunded liabilities in % the state and local public employee 40 pension systems. Do you favor or oppose 20 this proposal? 0 47 36 All adults 43 41 Likely voters 60 24 Dem 63 24 Rep Favor Oppose 45 38 Ind 10 Poverty How much of a problem is poverty in 100 Somewhat of a problem Big problem your part of 80 California? Is it a big problem, somewhat 32 60 35 30 27 34 35 of a problem, or not % much of a problem? 40 51 20 53 53 59 44 45 0 All adults Central Valley Inland Empire Los Orange/ San Francisco Angeles San Diego Bay Area 11 Earned income tax credit (EITC) proposal Governor Newsom’s budget proposal allocates about $1 billion to the state’s earned income tax credit to expand eligibility and payments for lowincome working individuals and families. Do you favor or oppose this proposal? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 73 21 All adults 71 25 Central Valley Favor Oppose 73 75 75 67 23 26 17 18 Inland Empire Los Orange/ San Francisco Angeles San Diego Bay Area 12 Housing costs and moving Does the cost of your housing make you and your family seriously consider moving away from the part of California you live in now? 55 and older 35 to 54 Yes, elsewhere in CA 6 30 10 36 Yes, outside of the state Yes, other 2 61 3 52 No Does it make you consider moving elsewhere in California, or outside of the state? 18 to 34 13 All adults 9 0 40 3 35 20 3 40 % 60 44 52 80 100 13 Housing affordability How much of a problem is housing affordability in your part of California? Is it a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem? 100 80 60 % 40 20 21 68 0 All adults Somewhat of a problem Big problem 19 18 14 25 32 74 71 80 56 49 Central Valley Inland Empire Los Angeles Orange/ San San Diego Francisco Bay Area 14 Proposal to increase housing production Governor Newsom’s budget proposal allocates $1.8 billion in one-time spending to increase housing production, including an expansion of state tax credits to develop low- and moderateincome housing. Do you favor or oppose this proposal? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 72 24 All adults 71 24 Central Valley Favor Oppose 78 73 69 64 29 31 22 18 Inland Empire Los Orange/ San Francisco Angeles San Diego Bay Area 15 Wildfires How much of a problem is the threat of wildfires in your part of California? Is it a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem? 100 80 60 % 40 30 20 40 0 All adults Somewhat of a problem Big problem 34 28 33 27 33 38 39 36 47 39 Central Valley Inland Empire Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego San Francisco Bay Area 16 Proposal for one-time spending to combat wildfires Governor Newsom’s budget proposal allocates $415 million in one-time spending for wildfire preparedness, response, and recovery and forest management. Do you favor or oppose this proposal? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 81 15 All adults 84 14 Central Valley Favor Oppose 89 79 79 68 24 16 16 9 Inland Empire Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego San Francisco Bay Area 17 Scaling back the high-speed rail Governor Newsom 100 proposes to scale back the high-speed 80 rail project and complete the 60 construction underway % for a high-speed rail from Bakersfield to 40 Merced…. Do you think that Governor 20 Newsom’s proposal is a good idea or a bad idea? 0 53 36 All adults 45 42 Likely voters 56 35 Dem Good idea Bad idea 55 31 47 41 Rep Ind 18 Scaling back the Delta tunnels Governor Newsom 100 proposes to scale back the Delta project 80 and build one tunnel. Do you think that Governor Newsom’s proposal is a good 60 % idea or a bad idea? 40 20 52 32 47 34 56 25 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Good idea Bad idea 42 38 50 38 Rep Ind 19 Death penalty versus life imprisonment Which of the following statements do you agree with more? The penalty for first-degree murder should be the death penalty; or the penalty for first-degree murder should be life imprisonment with absolutely no possibility of parole. % all adults 100 80 60 49 40 47 20 53 38 54 55 Death penalty Life imprisonment 62 39 38 31 0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 20 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  State issues  National issues  Conclusions 21 Approval ratings of federal elected officials 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 52 36 29 All adults 51 34 29 Likely voters 69 41 7 Dem President Trump US Congress 75 Own representative 33 21 50 27 29 Rep Ind 22 Approval of US senators 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 47 45 All adults 48 48 Likely voters 71 66 Dem Dianne Feinstein Kamala Harris 23 17 Rep 40 41 Ind 23 Harris running for president in 2020 Do you think Kamala Harris should run for US President in 2020, or not? 100 80 60 % 40 45 40 52 38 54 35 20 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Should run Should not run 75 50 35 17 Rep Ind 24 Tax law passed by President Trump and Congress Do you approve or disapprove of the tax law passed by Donald Trump and Congress in 2017 that went into effect in 2018? 100 80 60 % 40 20 60 29 58 34 0 All adults Likely voters 81 10 Dem Approve Disapprove 71 57 29 21 Rep Ind 25 Impact of new tax law So far, do you think the overall effect of this 2017 tax law on you and your family is mostly positive, mostly negative, or it does not affect you much either way? Mostly positive All adults 14 Likely voters 18 Dem 6 Not much of an effect 41 42 40 Ind 15 41 Mostly negative 38 35 49 38 Rep 0 34 20 49 40 60 % 12 80 100 26 Declaring a national emergency along the border Do you think that Donald Trump should or should not have declared a national emergency in order to build a wall along the border with Mexico? 100 80 60 % 40 20 77 21 70 28 0 All adults Likely voters 94 5 Dem Should have Should not have 74 66 33 23 Rep Ind 27 State and local action to protect undocumented immigrants Do you favor or oppose the California state and local governments making their own policies and taking actions, separate from the federal government, to protect the legal rights of undocumented immigrants in California? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 61 34 54 43 All adults Likely voters 78 18 Dem Favor Oppose 78 55 41 18 Rep Ind 28 Affordable Care Act % adults 100 Generally favorable Generally unfavorable 100 Generally favorable Generally unfavorable 80 80 79 78 60 56 60 56 55 54 % 40 41 40 40 36 36 20 20 17 17 00 All adults Likely Dem Rep Ind voters 29 Proposal to expand Medi-Cal coverage Governor Newsom’s budget proposal allocates $196 million dollars to expand MediCal coverage to lowincome young adults ages 19 through 25 regardless of immigration status. Do you favor or oppose this proposal? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 64 32 54 44 All adults Likely voters 80 18 Dem Favor Oppose 78 57 40 19 Rep Ind 30 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  State issues  National issues  Conclusions 31 Conclusions  A plurality of Californians approve of Governor Newsom and the state legislature; a slim majority approve of their own state legislators.  Californians are divided on additional spending to pay down unfunded pension liabilities but support proposals to expand the state’s earned income tax credit, spur housing production, and combat wildfires.  Slim majorities support Newsom’s plans to scale back the high-speed rail and Delta tunnels.  Majorities disapprove of President Trump and Congress, while a slim majority approve of their own representatives in Congress.  Strong majorities of Californians do not agree with President Trump’s decision to declare an emergency along the US border; solid majorities support state and local action to protect the rights of undocumented immigrants. 32 PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government March 28, 2019 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, Rachel Ward Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle Notes on the use of these slides These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid misinterpretations, please contact: Dean Bonner (bonner@ppic.org; 415-291-4497) Thank you for your interest in this work. 34" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2019-03-28 16:20:00" ["comment_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(33) "eventbriefing_statewidesurvey0319" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2020-02-12 11:34:51" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2020-02-12 19:34:51" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["guid"]=> string(77) "https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/eventbriefing_statewidesurvey0319.pdf" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_mime_type"]=> string(15) "application/pdf" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" ["status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["attachment_authors"]=> bool(false) }