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Eventbriefing Statewidesurvey0518

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object(Timber\Post)#3742 (44) { ["ImageClass"]=> string(12) "Timber\Image" ["PostClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Post" ["TermClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Term" ["object_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["custom"]=> array(5) { ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(37) "eventbriefing_statewidesurvey0518.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "472338" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(10417) "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government May 24, 2018 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 2 PPIC Statewide Survey mission  Provide timely, relevant, nonpartisan data on political, social, and economic opinions  Inform and improve state policymaking, raise awareness, encourage discussion  Provide a voice for all Californians in important state policy debates – 350,000+ Californians interviewed since 1998 – 170+ general, issue and regional surveys 3 Californians and Their Government  General series funded by the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle  Telephone interviews, May 11‒20, 2018 – 70% cell phone, 30% landline – 1,702 adults, ± 3.1% margin of error – 901 likely voters, ± 4.1% margin of error  Views on gubernatorial, US Senate, and congressional elections  Opinions on state and federal elected officials, the state budget, immigration policy, and health care policy 4 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 5 Gubernatorial candidate preference Gavin Newsom John Cox Antonio Villaraigosa Travis Allen John Chiang Delaine Eastin Someone else Don’t know 1 0 19 15 11 9 6 25 15 20 40 % likely voters 60 6 Satisfaction with gubernatorial candidates In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the primary election for governor this June? 100 80 60 % 40 20 64 27 74 18 0 All likely voters Dem 60 30 Rep 55 36 71 22 Satisfied Not satisfied 67 61 29 25 Ind Latinos Whites Other racial/ ethnic groups 7 Importance of gubernatorial debates In deciding who to vote for in the election for governor, how important to you are the candidates’ performances in public debates? % likely voters 100 80 60 41 44 41 40 20 41 44 0 All likely Dem voters 33 Rep Somewhat important Very important 30 40 40 45 62 42 49 30 Ind Latinos Whites Other racial/ ethnic groups 8 US Senate race Candidate preference Don’t know 36% Dianne Feinstein 41% Someone else 5% Kevin de León 17% % likely voters Satisfaction with choice of candidates 100 Satisfied Not satisfied 80 60 50 40 40 20 74 19 59 27 53 38 0 All likely voters Dem Rep Ind 9 Enthusiasm about voting in congressional races How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for Congress this year? % likely voters 100 80 60 40 26 30 20 20 26 0 All likely Dem voters 26 16 Rep Very enthusiastic Extremely enthusiastic 19 22 28 27 32 17 14 19 Ind Latinos Whites Other racial/ ethnic groups 10 Preferences in November House races If the 2018 election for US House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district? (If other/unsure: As of today, do you lean more toward the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate? % likely voters 100 80 60 52 40 38 20 0 All likely voters 61 29 Democraticheld seats Would vote or lean Dem Would vote or lean Rep 60 61 32 32 Republicanheld seats Competitive House districts 11 Congressional candidates and President Trump Which of the following is more important to you in candidates for US Congress—that they work with the Trump administration or that they push back against the Trump administration? % likely voters 100 80 60 47 46 40 20 73 19 0 All likely voters Dem 87 11 Rep 49 38 61 30 Work with Trump administration Push back against Trump administration 54 41 44 43 Ind Latinos Whites Other racial/ ethnic groups 12 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 13 Approval of state elected officials % adults Governor Brown Governor Brown 100 California Legislature California Legislature 100 80 80 75 60 48 63 40 44 % 60 48 44 52 42 39 40 34 20 23 20 20 0 0 All adults Likely Dem Rep Ind voters 14 Approval of federal elected officials % adults 100 80 60 40 33 20 30 0 President Trump US Congress 100 President Trump US Congress 80 75 % 60 30 40 30 38 24 24 20 18 18 10 36 29 17 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind 15 Most important issue in California 60 % all adults 40 20 18 15 9 6555 0 Jobs, the Immigration, Housing cost, Crime, gangs, Government Homelessness Water, economy illegal availability drugs in general, drought immigration elected officials 16 Economic outlook for the state Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? All adults Likely voters Orange/San Diego San Francisco Bay Area Inland Empire Los Angeles Central Valley 0 51 39 50 40 58 30 54 34 53 40 46 46 45 47 20 40 60 80 % Good times Bad times 100 17 Governor Brown’s budget proposal Governor Brown recently released a revised budget plan for the next fiscal year…. In general, do you favor or oppose the governor’s budget plan? 100 80 60 % 40 20 63 25 60 31 78 13 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Favor Oppose 52 36 58 32 Rep Ind 18 One-time spending in budget proposal The nearly $4 billion in one-time general fund spending is focused in three areas with $2 billion dollars going to infrastructure projects, $359 million dollars to address homelessness, and $312 million dollars for mental health programs. In general, do you think this is a good idea or a bad idea? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 78 71 23 17 All adults Likely voters 89 8 Dem Good idea Bad idea 73 53 37 20 Rep Ind 19 Trust in government How much of the time do you think you can trust the _______ to do what is right? 100 80 % adults 60 40 20 0 Just about always Only some of the time 9 Most of the time None of the time (vol.) 11 47 62 32 9 State government in Sacramento 18 6 Federal government in Washington 20 Partisan breakdown of trust in government How much of the time do you think you can trust the ________to do what is right—just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time? 80 60 % 40 20 Just about always/ most of the time 41 24 38 18 58 17 State government in Sacramento Federal government in Washington 25 17 31 19 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind 21 Perception of immigrants % adults 100 Immigrants are a benefit Immigrants are a burden Immigrants are a benefit Immigrants are a burden 80 100 74 86 80 74 75 60 67 60 55 40 % 40 36 28 20 20 24 20 10 19 00 All adults Likely Dem Rep Ind voters 22 Policy preference on undocumented immigrants Which comes closer to your view about how to handle undocumented immigrants who are living in the US: There should be a way for them to stay in the country legally, if certain requirements are met or they should not be allowed to stay in this country legally? 100 85 93 82 80 66 60 Allowed to stay legally Not allowed to stay legally 100 95 82 80 82 79 60 % % 40 20 13 0 All adults 6 Dem 31 Rep 15 Ind 40 20 15 14 5 0 African Asian Latinos Americans Americans 19 Whites 23 Affordable Care Act % adults 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan 2014 Generally favorable Generally unfavorable 100 Generally favorable Generally unfavorable 80 45 60 % 45 39 40 39 20 45 45 61 27 66 22 43 42 May 2018 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind 24 Single-payer health care in California Do you favor or oppose having guaranteed health insurance coverage in which all Californians would get their insurance through a single state government health plan? (if favor, ask: “Do you favor it even if it means raising taxes?”) Don't know 7% Oppose 29% Favor, even if it means raising taxes 41% Favor, but not if it means raising taxes 23% 25 Single-payer health care in California Do you favor or oppose having guaranteed health insurance coverage in which all Californians would get their insurance through a single state government health plan? (if favor, ask: “Do you favor it even if it means raising taxes?”) 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 16 29 16 36 67 23 16 62 41 13 39 17 All adults Dem Rep Ind Favor, even if it means raising taxes Favor, but not if it means raising taxes Oppose 26 Motivation for Russia investigation As you may know, there is an investigation into dealings between Trump associates and Russia. Do you think the investigation is justified, or is the investigation politically motivated? 100 80 60 % 40 49 41 20 49 48 72 22 79 17 57 36 % adults Investigation is justified 100 Investigation is politically motivated 80 60 49 41 40 53 44 20 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind 0 California Nationwide (CBS News poll) 27 Russian involvement in the 2016 election Do you think the Russian government tried to influence the outcome of the 2016 US presidential election, or not? 100 80 60 Yes, and Trump campaign members intentionally helped % 40 Yes, but Trump campaign members didn't intentionally help Yes, don't know if campaign members intentionally helped 20 No 0 50 12 5 24 All adults 76 5 3 10 Dem 18 31 5 40 Rep 44 17 8 23 Ind 28 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 29 Conclusions  Newsom remains the top choice, while Cox and Villaraigosa vie for the second spot on November’s general election ballot  Feinstein continues to lead de León; most Republicans and independents are undecided  Governor Brown’s final budget receives positive reviews and overwhelming majorities like his idea of additional one-time spending  Californians distrust the state and federal government; they have even less trust in the federal government  Majorities across the state continue to view immigrants as a benefit, amid local tensions about federal and state roles in immigration enforcement  Californians are divided on the motivation of the Russia investigation, but a growing share think the Russian government tried to influence the election 30 PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government May 24, 2018 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle Notes on the use of these slides These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid misinterpretations, please contact: Dean Bonner (bonner@ppic.org; 415-291-4497) Thank you for your interest in this work. 32" } ["___content":protected]=> string(152) "

Eventbriefing Statewidesurvey0518

" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(121) "https://www.ppic.org/event/statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-may-2018/eventbriefing_statewidesurvey0518/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(14984) ["ID"]=> int(14984) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "9" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2018-05-24 09:24:17" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(14905) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(33) "Eventbriefing Statewidesurvey0518" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(33) "eventbriefing_statewidesurvey0518" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(37) "eventbriefing_statewidesurvey0518.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "472338" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(10417) "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government May 24, 2018 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 2 PPIC Statewide Survey mission  Provide timely, relevant, nonpartisan data on political, social, and economic opinions  Inform and improve state policymaking, raise awareness, encourage discussion  Provide a voice for all Californians in important state policy debates – 350,000+ Californians interviewed since 1998 – 170+ general, issue and regional surveys 3 Californians and Their Government  General series funded by the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle  Telephone interviews, May 11‒20, 2018 – 70% cell phone, 30% landline – 1,702 adults, ± 3.1% margin of error – 901 likely voters, ± 4.1% margin of error  Views on gubernatorial, US Senate, and congressional elections  Opinions on state and federal elected officials, the state budget, immigration policy, and health care policy 4 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 5 Gubernatorial candidate preference Gavin Newsom John Cox Antonio Villaraigosa Travis Allen John Chiang Delaine Eastin Someone else Don’t know 1 0 19 15 11 9 6 25 15 20 40 % likely voters 60 6 Satisfaction with gubernatorial candidates In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the primary election for governor this June? 100 80 60 % 40 20 64 27 74 18 0 All likely voters Dem 60 30 Rep 55 36 71 22 Satisfied Not satisfied 67 61 29 25 Ind Latinos Whites Other racial/ ethnic groups 7 Importance of gubernatorial debates In deciding who to vote for in the election for governor, how important to you are the candidates’ performances in public debates? % likely voters 100 80 60 41 44 41 40 20 41 44 0 All likely Dem voters 33 Rep Somewhat important Very important 30 40 40 45 62 42 49 30 Ind Latinos Whites Other racial/ ethnic groups 8 US Senate race Candidate preference Don’t know 36% Dianne Feinstein 41% Someone else 5% Kevin de León 17% % likely voters Satisfaction with choice of candidates 100 Satisfied Not satisfied 80 60 50 40 40 20 74 19 59 27 53 38 0 All likely voters Dem Rep Ind 9 Enthusiasm about voting in congressional races How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for Congress this year? % likely voters 100 80 60 40 26 30 20 20 26 0 All likely Dem voters 26 16 Rep Very enthusiastic Extremely enthusiastic 19 22 28 27 32 17 14 19 Ind Latinos Whites Other racial/ ethnic groups 10 Preferences in November House races If the 2018 election for US House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district? (If other/unsure: As of today, do you lean more toward the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate? % likely voters 100 80 60 52 40 38 20 0 All likely voters 61 29 Democraticheld seats Would vote or lean Dem Would vote or lean Rep 60 61 32 32 Republicanheld seats Competitive House districts 11 Congressional candidates and President Trump Which of the following is more important to you in candidates for US Congress—that they work with the Trump administration or that they push back against the Trump administration? % likely voters 100 80 60 47 46 40 20 73 19 0 All likely voters Dem 87 11 Rep 49 38 61 30 Work with Trump administration Push back against Trump administration 54 41 44 43 Ind Latinos Whites Other racial/ ethnic groups 12 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 13 Approval of state elected officials % adults Governor Brown Governor Brown 100 California Legislature California Legislature 100 80 80 75 60 48 63 40 44 % 60 48 44 52 42 39 40 34 20 23 20 20 0 0 All adults Likely Dem Rep Ind voters 14 Approval of federal elected officials % adults 100 80 60 40 33 20 30 0 President Trump US Congress 100 President Trump US Congress 80 75 % 60 30 40 30 38 24 24 20 18 18 10 36 29 17 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind 15 Most important issue in California 60 % all adults 40 20 18 15 9 6555 0 Jobs, the Immigration, Housing cost, Crime, gangs, Government Homelessness Water, economy illegal availability drugs in general, drought immigration elected officials 16 Economic outlook for the state Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? All adults Likely voters Orange/San Diego San Francisco Bay Area Inland Empire Los Angeles Central Valley 0 51 39 50 40 58 30 54 34 53 40 46 46 45 47 20 40 60 80 % Good times Bad times 100 17 Governor Brown’s budget proposal Governor Brown recently released a revised budget plan for the next fiscal year…. In general, do you favor or oppose the governor’s budget plan? 100 80 60 % 40 20 63 25 60 31 78 13 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Favor Oppose 52 36 58 32 Rep Ind 18 One-time spending in budget proposal The nearly $4 billion in one-time general fund spending is focused in three areas with $2 billion dollars going to infrastructure projects, $359 million dollars to address homelessness, and $312 million dollars for mental health programs. In general, do you think this is a good idea or a bad idea? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 78 71 23 17 All adults Likely voters 89 8 Dem Good idea Bad idea 73 53 37 20 Rep Ind 19 Trust in government How much of the time do you think you can trust the _______ to do what is right? 100 80 % adults 60 40 20 0 Just about always Only some of the time 9 Most of the time None of the time (vol.) 11 47 62 32 9 State government in Sacramento 18 6 Federal government in Washington 20 Partisan breakdown of trust in government How much of the time do you think you can trust the ________to do what is right—just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time? 80 60 % 40 20 Just about always/ most of the time 41 24 38 18 58 17 State government in Sacramento Federal government in Washington 25 17 31 19 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind 21 Perception of immigrants % adults 100 Immigrants are a benefit Immigrants are a burden Immigrants are a benefit Immigrants are a burden 80 100 74 86 80 74 75 60 67 60 55 40 % 40 36 28 20 20 24 20 10 19 00 All adults Likely Dem Rep Ind voters 22 Policy preference on undocumented immigrants Which comes closer to your view about how to handle undocumented immigrants who are living in the US: There should be a way for them to stay in the country legally, if certain requirements are met or they should not be allowed to stay in this country legally? 100 85 93 82 80 66 60 Allowed to stay legally Not allowed to stay legally 100 95 82 80 82 79 60 % % 40 20 13 0 All adults 6 Dem 31 Rep 15 Ind 40 20 15 14 5 0 African Asian Latinos Americans Americans 19 Whites 23 Affordable Care Act % adults 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan 2014 Generally favorable Generally unfavorable 100 Generally favorable Generally unfavorable 80 45 60 % 45 39 40 39 20 45 45 61 27 66 22 43 42 May 2018 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind 24 Single-payer health care in California Do you favor or oppose having guaranteed health insurance coverage in which all Californians would get their insurance through a single state government health plan? (if favor, ask: “Do you favor it even if it means raising taxes?”) Don't know 7% Oppose 29% Favor, even if it means raising taxes 41% Favor, but not if it means raising taxes 23% 25 Single-payer health care in California Do you favor or oppose having guaranteed health insurance coverage in which all Californians would get their insurance through a single state government health plan? (if favor, ask: “Do you favor it even if it means raising taxes?”) 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 16 29 16 36 67 23 16 62 41 13 39 17 All adults Dem Rep Ind Favor, even if it means raising taxes Favor, but not if it means raising taxes Oppose 26 Motivation for Russia investigation As you may know, there is an investigation into dealings between Trump associates and Russia. Do you think the investigation is justified, or is the investigation politically motivated? 100 80 60 % 40 49 41 20 49 48 72 22 79 17 57 36 % adults Investigation is justified 100 Investigation is politically motivated 80 60 49 41 40 53 44 20 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind 0 California Nationwide (CBS News poll) 27 Russian involvement in the 2016 election Do you think the Russian government tried to influence the outcome of the 2016 US presidential election, or not? 100 80 60 Yes, and Trump campaign members intentionally helped % 40 Yes, but Trump campaign members didn't intentionally help Yes, don't know if campaign members intentionally helped 20 No 0 50 12 5 24 All adults 76 5 3 10 Dem 18 31 5 40 Rep 44 17 8 23 Ind 28 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 29 Conclusions  Newsom remains the top choice, while Cox and Villaraigosa vie for the second spot on November’s general election ballot  Feinstein continues to lead de León; most Republicans and independents are undecided  Governor Brown’s final budget receives positive reviews and overwhelming majorities like his idea of additional one-time spending  Californians distrust the state and federal government; they have even less trust in the federal government  Majorities across the state continue to view immigrants as a benefit, amid local tensions about federal and state roles in immigration enforcement  Californians are divided on the motivation of the Russia investigation, but a growing share think the Russian government tried to influence the election 30 PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government May 24, 2018 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle Notes on the use of these slides These slides were created to accompany a presentation. 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