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object(Timber\Post)#3742 (44) { ["ImageClass"]=> string(12) "Timber\Image" ["PostClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Post" ["TermClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Term" ["object_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["custom"]=> array(5) { ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(37) "eventbriefing_statewidesurvey1018.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "462129" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(9224) "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians & Their Government October 26, 2018 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, Lunna Lopes Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 2 PPIC Statewide Survey mission  Provide timely, relevant, nonpartisan data on political, social, and economic opinions  Inform and improve state policymaking, raise awareness, encourage discussion  Provide a voice for all Californians in important state policy debates – 350,000+ Californians interviewed since 1998 – 170+ general, issue, and regional surveys 3 Californians and Their Government  General series funded by the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle  Telephone interviews, October 12‒21, 2018 – 70% cell phone, 30% landline – 1,704 adults, ± 3.3% margin of error – 989 likely voters, ± 4.2% margin of error  Views on gubernatorial and US Senate elections and ballot measures  Opinions on state and federal elected officials, immigration policy, health care policy, and the role of government 4 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 5 Gubernatorial election % likely voters % likely voters Gavin Newsom John Cox Would not vote for governor (vol) Don't know 100 100 83 82 80 80 60 51 39 40 49 38 60 49 40 38 20 7 3 0 September 10 2 October 20 0 Likely voters 7 Dem 11 Rep 43 38 Ind 6 Satisfaction with gubernatorial candidates In general, would you 100 say you are satisfied or not satisfied with 80 your choices of candidates in the 60 election for governor % on November 6? 40 20 60 32 69 24 0 All likely voters Dem 62 30 Rep Satisfied Not satisfied 47 43 59 30 62 31 56 35 Ind Latinos Whites Other racial/ ethnic groups 7 US Senate election % likely voters % likely voters Dianne Feinstein Kevin de León Would not vote for US senator (vol) Don't know 100 100 80 60 40 40 29 23 20 8 0 September 43 27 23 8 October 80 60 43 40 27 20 0 Likely voters 66 22 Dem 28 14 Rep 39 31 Ind 8 Satisfaction with US Senate candidates In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for US Senate on November 6? 100 79 80 60 % 40 53 39 20 14 0 All likely voters Dem 64 28 Rep Satisfied Not satisfied 51 40 64 26 51 44 54 31 Ind Latinos Whites Other racial/ ethnic groups 9 Enthusiasm about voting in congressional races How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for Congress this year? % likely voters 100 80 60 40 28 38 20 25 0 All likely voters 29 Dem 21 24 Rep Very enthusiastic Extremely enthusiastic 29 26 21 30 21 14 27 26 Ind Latinos Whites Other racial/ ethnic groups 10 November 2018 House races % registered voters % likely voters If the 2018 election for US House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district? (If other/unsure: As of today, do you lean more toward the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate? 100 80 60 57 40 35 20 53 42 100 80 60 55 40 37 20 Would vote or lean Dem Would vote or lean Rep 60 30 55 40 44 49 0 California registered Registered voters voters nationwide in ABC News-Washington Post poll 0 All likely Democratic- Republican- Competitive voters held seats held seats House districts 11 Congressional candidates and President Trump Which of the following is more important to you in candidates for US Congress—that they work with the Trump administration or that they push back against the Trump administration? % likely voters 100 80 76 60 45 48 40 20 18 0 All likely voters Dem 85 11 Rep 51 41 63 28 Work with Trump administration Push back against Trump administration 52 42 56 35 Ind Latinos Whites Other racial/ ethnic groups 12 Proposition 6: Repealing the gas tax increase Proposition 6 is called the “Eliminates Certain Road Repair and Transportation Funding. Requires Certain Fuel Taxes and Vehicle Fees be Approved by the Electorate. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.”… If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 6? % likely voters 100 80 60 40 20 0 48 41 11 All likely voters 59 28 12 Dem 53 35 12 Rep Yes No Don't know 49 43 8 Ind 13 Proposition 10: Expanding local rent control authority Proposition 10 is called the “Expands Local Governments’ Authority to Enact Rent Control on Residential Property. Initiative Statute.”… If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 10? % likely voters 100 80 60 60 40 25 20 15 0 All likely voters 54 28 18 Dem 72 15 12 Rep Yes No Don't know 61 28 11 Ind 14 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 15 Approval of state elected officials % adults Governor Brown Governor Brown 100 California Legislature California Legislature 100 80 80 68 60 61 40 48 45 % 60 48 45 50 43 40 43 40 20 20 15 14 00 All adults Likely Dem Rep Ind voters 16 Approval of President Trump and Congress % adults 100 80 60 40 33 20 30 0 President Trump US Congress 100 80 President Trump US Congress 78 % 60 39 29 40 29 25 25 20 20 8 11 40 38 25 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind 17 Outlook for the nation 100 80 60 % 40 48 36 53 38 20 0 All adults Likely voters 36 16 Dem 73 66 Think things are headed in the right direction Expect good times financially 47 40 Rep Ind 18 Role of government If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller government providing fewer services, or a bigger government providing more services? 100 80 % 60 40 54 39 20 53 41 Smaller government, fewer services Bigger government, more services 83 66 26 52 41 15 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind 19 State and local action to protect undocumented immigrants Do you favor or oppose the California state and local governments making their own policies and taking actions, separate from the federal government, to protect the legal rights of undocumented immigrants in California? 80 60 % 40 20 58 36 52 44 76 19 Favor Oppose 71 49 45 26 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind 20 Opposition to building a wall along Mexican border All in all, would you 100 % oppose favor or oppose building a wall along 80 74 71 73 78 80 the entire border 64 with Mexico? 60 % 40 20 0 All adults Central Valley Inland Empire Los Orange/ San Francisco Angeles San Diego Bay Area 21 Affordable Care Act % adults 100 Generally favorable Generally unfavorable Generally favorable Generally unfavorable 100 80 80 80 72 60 59 59 60 53 54 40 % 43 40 33 40 33 24 20 20 17 0 0 All adults Likely Dem Rep Ind voters 22 Federal government’s role in health care coverage 100 80 % 60 40 20 65 31 59 38 Responsibility of government Not responsibility of government 86 69 60 28 14 36 Single national health insurance system run by government Mix of private insurance companies and government programs Don't know 8% 41% 52% 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Among those who think it is government’s responsibility 23 Favorability of major political parties % adults 100 80 60 58 40 35 20 0 Democratic Party Republican Party 46 29 100 80 60 % 40 20 46 29 41 31 0 All adults Likely voters Democratic Party Republican Party 72 69 10 11 40 29 Dem Rep Ind 24 Need for a third major party In your view, do the Republican and Democratic parties do an adequate job representing the American people, or do they do such a poor job that a third major party is needed? 100 80 60 % 40 20 55 32 61 29 56 33 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Adequate job Third party is needed 75 53 34 18 Rep Ind 25 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 26 Conclusions  Gavin Newsom remains ahead of John Cox in the governor’s race; Dianne Feinstein continues to lead Kevin de León in the US Senate race, with half of Republicans undecided or planning not to vote  A majority of likely voters favor the Democratic candidate in their US House district  Proposition 6, which would repeal the gas tax increase, and Proposition 10, which would expand local rent control authority, are trailing among likely voters  Governor Brown and the California Legislature are viewed much more positively than are President Trump and Congress  Californians continue to support state and local governments making their own policies to protect undocumented immigrants  Fewer than half have a favorable view of the Democratic Party and less than a third have a favorable view of the Republican Party; most say that a third major party is needed 27 PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians & Their Government October 26, 2018 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, Lunna Lopes Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle Notes on the use of these slides These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid misinterpretations, please contact: Alyssa Dykman (dykman@ppic.org; 415-291-4475) Thank you for your interest in this work. 29" } ["___content":protected]=> string(152) "

Eventbriefing Statewidesurvey1018

" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(125) "https://www.ppic.org/event/statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2018/eventbriefing_statewidesurvey1018/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(16866) ["ID"]=> int(16866) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "9" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2018-10-26 09:25:26" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(16830) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(33) "Eventbriefing Statewidesurvey1018" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(33) "eventbriefing_statewidesurvey1018" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(37) "eventbriefing_statewidesurvey1018.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "462129" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(9224) "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians & Their Government October 26, 2018 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, Lunna Lopes Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 2 PPIC Statewide Survey mission  Provide timely, relevant, nonpartisan data on political, social, and economic opinions  Inform and improve state policymaking, raise awareness, encourage discussion  Provide a voice for all Californians in important state policy debates – 350,000+ Californians interviewed since 1998 – 170+ general, issue, and regional surveys 3 Californians and Their Government  General series funded by the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle  Telephone interviews, October 12‒21, 2018 – 70% cell phone, 30% landline – 1,704 adults, ± 3.3% margin of error – 989 likely voters, ± 4.2% margin of error  Views on gubernatorial and US Senate elections and ballot measures  Opinions on state and federal elected officials, immigration policy, health care policy, and the role of government 4 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 5 Gubernatorial election % likely voters % likely voters Gavin Newsom John Cox Would not vote for governor (vol) Don't know 100 100 83 82 80 80 60 51 39 40 49 38 60 49 40 38 20 7 3 0 September 10 2 October 20 0 Likely voters 7 Dem 11 Rep 43 38 Ind 6 Satisfaction with gubernatorial candidates In general, would you 100 say you are satisfied or not satisfied with 80 your choices of candidates in the 60 election for governor % on November 6? 40 20 60 32 69 24 0 All likely voters Dem 62 30 Rep Satisfied Not satisfied 47 43 59 30 62 31 56 35 Ind Latinos Whites Other racial/ ethnic groups 7 US Senate election % likely voters % likely voters Dianne Feinstein Kevin de León Would not vote for US senator (vol) Don't know 100 100 80 60 40 40 29 23 20 8 0 September 43 27 23 8 October 80 60 43 40 27 20 0 Likely voters 66 22 Dem 28 14 Rep 39 31 Ind 8 Satisfaction with US Senate candidates In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for US Senate on November 6? 100 79 80 60 % 40 53 39 20 14 0 All likely voters Dem 64 28 Rep Satisfied Not satisfied 51 40 64 26 51 44 54 31 Ind Latinos Whites Other racial/ ethnic groups 9 Enthusiasm about voting in congressional races How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for Congress this year? % likely voters 100 80 60 40 28 38 20 25 0 All likely voters 29 Dem 21 24 Rep Very enthusiastic Extremely enthusiastic 29 26 21 30 21 14 27 26 Ind Latinos Whites Other racial/ ethnic groups 10 November 2018 House races % registered voters % likely voters If the 2018 election for US House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district? (If other/unsure: As of today, do you lean more toward the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate? 100 80 60 57 40 35 20 53 42 100 80 60 55 40 37 20 Would vote or lean Dem Would vote or lean Rep 60 30 55 40 44 49 0 California registered Registered voters voters nationwide in ABC News-Washington Post poll 0 All likely Democratic- Republican- Competitive voters held seats held seats House districts 11 Congressional candidates and President Trump Which of the following is more important to you in candidates for US Congress—that they work with the Trump administration or that they push back against the Trump administration? % likely voters 100 80 76 60 45 48 40 20 18 0 All likely voters Dem 85 11 Rep 51 41 63 28 Work with Trump administration Push back against Trump administration 52 42 56 35 Ind Latinos Whites Other racial/ ethnic groups 12 Proposition 6: Repealing the gas tax increase Proposition 6 is called the “Eliminates Certain Road Repair and Transportation Funding. Requires Certain Fuel Taxes and Vehicle Fees be Approved by the Electorate. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.”… If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 6? % likely voters 100 80 60 40 20 0 48 41 11 All likely voters 59 28 12 Dem 53 35 12 Rep Yes No Don't know 49 43 8 Ind 13 Proposition 10: Expanding local rent control authority Proposition 10 is called the “Expands Local Governments’ Authority to Enact Rent Control on Residential Property. Initiative Statute.”… If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 10? % likely voters 100 80 60 60 40 25 20 15 0 All likely voters 54 28 18 Dem 72 15 12 Rep Yes No Don't know 61 28 11 Ind 14 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 15 Approval of state elected officials % adults Governor Brown Governor Brown 100 California Legislature California Legislature 100 80 80 68 60 61 40 48 45 % 60 48 45 50 43 40 43 40 20 20 15 14 00 All adults Likely Dem Rep Ind voters 16 Approval of President Trump and Congress % adults 100 80 60 40 33 20 30 0 President Trump US Congress 100 80 President Trump US Congress 78 % 60 39 29 40 29 25 25 20 20 8 11 40 38 25 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind 17 Outlook for the nation 100 80 60 % 40 48 36 53 38 20 0 All adults Likely voters 36 16 Dem 73 66 Think things are headed in the right direction Expect good times financially 47 40 Rep Ind 18 Role of government If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller government providing fewer services, or a bigger government providing more services? 100 80 % 60 40 54 39 20 53 41 Smaller government, fewer services Bigger government, more services 83 66 26 52 41 15 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind 19 State and local action to protect undocumented immigrants Do you favor or oppose the California state and local governments making their own policies and taking actions, separate from the federal government, to protect the legal rights of undocumented immigrants in California? 80 60 % 40 20 58 36 52 44 76 19 Favor Oppose 71 49 45 26 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind 20 Opposition to building a wall along Mexican border All in all, would you 100 % oppose favor or oppose building a wall along 80 74 71 73 78 80 the entire border 64 with Mexico? 60 % 40 20 0 All adults Central Valley Inland Empire Los Orange/ San Francisco Angeles San Diego Bay Area 21 Affordable Care Act % adults 100 Generally favorable Generally unfavorable Generally favorable Generally unfavorable 100 80 80 80 72 60 59 59 60 53 54 40 % 43 40 33 40 33 24 20 20 17 0 0 All adults Likely Dem Rep Ind voters 22 Federal government’s role in health care coverage 100 80 % 60 40 20 65 31 59 38 Responsibility of government Not responsibility of government 86 69 60 28 14 36 Single national health insurance system run by government Mix of private insurance companies and government programs Don't know 8% 41% 52% 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Among those who think it is government’s responsibility 23 Favorability of major political parties % adults 100 80 60 58 40 35 20 0 Democratic Party Republican Party 46 29 100 80 60 % 40 20 46 29 41 31 0 All adults Likely voters Democratic Party Republican Party 72 69 10 11 40 29 Dem Rep Ind 24 Need for a third major party In your view, do the Republican and Democratic parties do an adequate job representing the American people, or do they do such a poor job that a third major party is needed? 100 80 60 % 40 20 55 32 61 29 56 33 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Adequate job Third party is needed 75 53 34 18 Rep Ind 25 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 26 Conclusions  Gavin Newsom remains ahead of John Cox in the governor’s race; Dianne Feinstein continues to lead Kevin de León in the US Senate race, with half of Republicans undecided or planning not to vote  A majority of likely voters favor the Democratic candidate in their US House district  Proposition 6, which would repeal the gas tax increase, and Proposition 10, which would expand local rent control authority, are trailing among likely voters  Governor Brown and the California Legislature are viewed much more positively than are President Trump and Congress  Californians continue to support state and local governments making their own policies to protect undocumented immigrants  Fewer than half have a favorable view of the Democratic Party and less than a third have a favorable view of the Republican Party; most say that a third major party is needed 27 PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians & Their Government October 26, 2018 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, Lunna Lopes Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle Notes on the use of these slides These slides were created to accompany a presentation. 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