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Event Briefing Statewide Survey 0918

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object(Timber\Post)#3711 (44) { ["ImageClass"]=> string(12) "Timber\Image" ["PostClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Post" ["TermClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Term" ["object_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["custom"]=> array(5) { ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(40) "event-briefing-statewide-survey-0918.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "448128" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(9252) "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians & Their Government September 27, 2018 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, Lunna Lopes Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 2 PPIC Statewide Survey mission  Provide timely, relevant, nonpartisan data on political, social, and economic opinions  Inform and improve state policymaking, raise awareness, encourage discussion  Provide a voice for all Californians in important state policy debates – 350,000+ Californians interviewed since 1998 – 170+ general, issue, and regional surveys 3 Californians and Their Government  General series funded by the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle  Telephone interviews, September 9‒18, 2018 – 70% cell phone, 30% landline – 1,710 adults, ± 3.4% margin of error – 964 likely voters, ± 4.8% margin of error  Views on gubernatorial and US Senate elections and ballot measures  Opinions on state and federal elected officials, immigration policy, abortion and the Supreme Court, and the role of state government 4 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 5 Gubernatorial election % likely voters % likely voters Gavin Newsom John Cox Would not vote for governor (vol) Don't know 100 100 86 85 80 80 60 55 40 31 20 9 5 0 July 51 39 7 3 September 60 51 39 40 20 0 Likely voters 8 Dem 9 Rep 42 37 Ind 6 Satisfaction with gubernatorial candidates In general, would you 100 say you are satisfied or not satisfied with 80 your choices of candidates in the 60 election for governor % on November 6th? 40 20 59 32 72 23 0 All likely voters Dem 44 41 Rep Satisfied Not satisfied 50 39 65 31 60 30 52 35 Ind Latinos Whites Other racial/ ethnic groups 7 US Senate election % likely voters % likely voters Dianne Feinstein Kevin de León Would not vote for US senator (vol) Don't know 100 100 80 60 46 40 24 20 20 9 0 July 40 29 23 8 September 80 60 40 40 29 20 0 Likely voters 60 30 Dem 18 21 Rep 33 28 Ind 8 Satisfaction with US Senate candidates In general, would you 100 say you are satisfied or not satisfied with 80 your choices of candidates in the 60 election for US % Senate on November 40 6th? 20 55 37 76 17 0 All likely voters Dem 64 27 Rep 48 38 62 30 Satisfied Not satisfied 67 48 42 26 Ind Latinos Whites Other racial/ ethnic groups 9 Importance of 2018 midterms Is voting this year more important to you than in past midterm elections, less important, or about the same? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 52 44 All likely voters 64 33 Dem More important About the same 48 48 55 42 Rep Ind 10 November 2018 House races % registered voters % likely voters If the 2018 election for US House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district? (If other/unsure: As of today, do you lean more toward the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate? 100 80 60 54 40 35 52 40 20 0 California registered Registered voters voters nationwide in CNN poll Would vote or lean Dem 100 Would vote or lean Rep 80 60 54 40 37 20 63 28 55 34 43 44 0 All likely Democratic- Republican- Competitive voters held seats held seats House districts 11 Level of political experience preferred Would you prefer to elect 100 a representative to Congress who has experience in politics, or 80 is new to politics? 60 % 40 20 0 46 36 All likely voters 58 27 Dem Has experience in politics Is new to politics 46 32 41 35 Rep Ind 12 Proposition 6: Repealing the gas tax increase Proposition 6 is called the “Eliminates Certain 100 Road Repair and Transportation Funding. 80 Requires Certain Fuel Taxes and Vehicle Fees 60 be Approved by the % Electorate. Initiative 40 Constitutional Amendment.”… If the 20 election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 6? 0 52 39 8 All likely voters 62 33 5 Dem 50 41 9 Rep Yes No Don't know 47 42 11 Ind 13 Proposition 10: Expanding local rent control authority Proposition 10 is called the “Expands Local Governments Authority to Enact Rent Control on Residential Property. Initiative Statute.”… If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 10? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 48 36 16 All likely voters 46 43 10 Dem 52 26 22 Rep Yes No Don't know 52 31 17 Ind 14 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 15 Approval of state elected officials % adults Governor Brown Governor Brown 100 California Legislature California Legislature 100 80 80 71 60 61 49 % 60 49 46 53 44 44 40 46 40 37 20 20 14 17 00 All adults Likely Dem Rep Ind voters 16 Approval of President Trump and Congress % adults 100 80 60 40 33 20 30 0 President Trump US Congress 100 80 President Trump US Congress 81 % 60 30 40 30 28 37 28 20 20 16 9 34 26 24 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind 17 Approval of federal elected officials 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 44 44 47 All adults 53 55 56 Likely voters 68 70 59 Dem Dianne Feinstein Kamala Harris Own rep in House 43 20 18 47 48 49 Rep Ind 18 Outlook for the state Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? Don't know 6% Wrong direction 43% Right direction 51% Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? Don't know 10% Bad times 37% Good times 53% All adults 19 Federal crackdown on undocumented immigrants Do you think the federal crackdown on undocumented immigrants is a good thing for the country or a bad thing for the country? 100 80 78 60 % 40 51 39 20 51 42 17 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Good thing Bad thing 74 56 33 16 Rep Ind 20 Concern about increased federal immigration enforcement When it comes to increased federal immigration enforcement, how much do you worry that someone that you know could be deported? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 20 16 26 29 30 19 All adults African Asian Americans Americans 18 55 Latinos 19 14 Whites Some A lot 18 21 49 19 Born in US Not born in US 21 Importance of Supreme Court justice choice How important is the choice of the next Supreme Court justice to you personally—very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 100 80 % 60 40 20 0 24 59 All adults 18 74 Likely voters 16 74 Dem Somewhat important Very important 23 25 63 58 Rep Ind 22 Opposition to overturning Roe v. Wade As you may know, the 100 1973 Supreme Court case Roe v. Wade established a women’s 80 constitutional right to have an abortion. 60 Would you like to see % the Supreme Court overturn its Roe v. 40 Wade decision, or not? 20 66 76 0 All adults Likely voters % no, not overturn 83 53 Dem Rep 75 Ind 23 Preference for size of state government In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more? I’d rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, or I’d rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services. 80 60 % 40 20 50 44 49 46 Higher taxes and more services Lower taxes and fewer services 75 71 26 20 50 44 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind 24 State government’s role in reducing income inequality Should the state government be doing more to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor in California, or is this something that the state government should not be doing? 100 80 60 % 40 20 60 32 53 43 Should do more Should not be doing 77 16 71 25 56 39 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind 25 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 26 Conclusions  Gavin Newsom leads John Cox and Dianne Feinstein leads Kevin de León by double digits, although their leads have shrunk since July  Half of likely voters consider this midterm election as more important than past midterms; a slight majority would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district  Proposition 6, which would repeal the gas tax increase, and Proposition 10, which would expand rent control authority, are both opposed by about half of likely voters  Governor Brown and the California Legislature are viewed much more positively than President Trump and Congress  Half of Californians think the federal immigration crackdown is a bad thing for the country; half worry that someone they know could be deported  There is bipartisan agreement regarding the importance of the choice of the next Supreme Court justice; most do not want the court to overturn Roe v. Wade 27 PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians & Their Government September 27, 2018 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, Lunna Lopes Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle Notes on the use of these slides These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid misinterpretations, please contact: Dean Bonner (bonner@ppic.org; 415-291-4497) Thank you for your interest in this work. 29" } ["___content":protected]=> string(158) "

Event Briefing Statewide Survey 0918

" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(130) "https://www.ppic.org/event/statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2018/event-briefing-statewide-survey-0918/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(16399) ["ID"]=> int(16399) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "4" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2018-09-27 10:42:39" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(16314) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(36) "Event Briefing Statewide Survey 0918" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(36) "event-briefing-statewide-survey-0918" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(40) "event-briefing-statewide-survey-0918.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "448128" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(9252) "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians & Their Government September 27, 2018 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, Lunna Lopes Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 2 PPIC Statewide Survey mission  Provide timely, relevant, nonpartisan data on political, social, and economic opinions  Inform and improve state policymaking, raise awareness, encourage discussion  Provide a voice for all Californians in important state policy debates – 350,000+ Californians interviewed since 1998 – 170+ general, issue, and regional surveys 3 Californians and Their Government  General series funded by the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle  Telephone interviews, September 9‒18, 2018 – 70% cell phone, 30% landline – 1,710 adults, ± 3.4% margin of error – 964 likely voters, ± 4.8% margin of error  Views on gubernatorial and US Senate elections and ballot measures  Opinions on state and federal elected officials, immigration policy, abortion and the Supreme Court, and the role of state government 4 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 5 Gubernatorial election % likely voters % likely voters Gavin Newsom John Cox Would not vote for governor (vol) Don't know 100 100 86 85 80 80 60 55 40 31 20 9 5 0 July 51 39 7 3 September 60 51 39 40 20 0 Likely voters 8 Dem 9 Rep 42 37 Ind 6 Satisfaction with gubernatorial candidates In general, would you 100 say you are satisfied or not satisfied with 80 your choices of candidates in the 60 election for governor % on November 6th? 40 20 59 32 72 23 0 All likely voters Dem 44 41 Rep Satisfied Not satisfied 50 39 65 31 60 30 52 35 Ind Latinos Whites Other racial/ ethnic groups 7 US Senate election % likely voters % likely voters Dianne Feinstein Kevin de León Would not vote for US senator (vol) Don't know 100 100 80 60 46 40 24 20 20 9 0 July 40 29 23 8 September 80 60 40 40 29 20 0 Likely voters 60 30 Dem 18 21 Rep 33 28 Ind 8 Satisfaction with US Senate candidates In general, would you 100 say you are satisfied or not satisfied with 80 your choices of candidates in the 60 election for US % Senate on November 40 6th? 20 55 37 76 17 0 All likely voters Dem 64 27 Rep 48 38 62 30 Satisfied Not satisfied 67 48 42 26 Ind Latinos Whites Other racial/ ethnic groups 9 Importance of 2018 midterms Is voting this year more important to you than in past midterm elections, less important, or about the same? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 52 44 All likely voters 64 33 Dem More important About the same 48 48 55 42 Rep Ind 10 November 2018 House races % registered voters % likely voters If the 2018 election for US House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district? (If other/unsure: As of today, do you lean more toward the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate? 100 80 60 54 40 35 52 40 20 0 California registered Registered voters voters nationwide in CNN poll Would vote or lean Dem 100 Would vote or lean Rep 80 60 54 40 37 20 63 28 55 34 43 44 0 All likely Democratic- Republican- Competitive voters held seats held seats House districts 11 Level of political experience preferred Would you prefer to elect 100 a representative to Congress who has experience in politics, or 80 is new to politics? 60 % 40 20 0 46 36 All likely voters 58 27 Dem Has experience in politics Is new to politics 46 32 41 35 Rep Ind 12 Proposition 6: Repealing the gas tax increase Proposition 6 is called the “Eliminates Certain 100 Road Repair and Transportation Funding. 80 Requires Certain Fuel Taxes and Vehicle Fees 60 be Approved by the % Electorate. Initiative 40 Constitutional Amendment.”… If the 20 election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 6? 0 52 39 8 All likely voters 62 33 5 Dem 50 41 9 Rep Yes No Don't know 47 42 11 Ind 13 Proposition 10: Expanding local rent control authority Proposition 10 is called the “Expands Local Governments Authority to Enact Rent Control on Residential Property. Initiative Statute.”… If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 10? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 48 36 16 All likely voters 46 43 10 Dem 52 26 22 Rep Yes No Don't know 52 31 17 Ind 14 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 15 Approval of state elected officials % adults Governor Brown Governor Brown 100 California Legislature California Legislature 100 80 80 71 60 61 49 % 60 49 46 53 44 44 40 46 40 37 20 20 14 17 00 All adults Likely Dem Rep Ind voters 16 Approval of President Trump and Congress % adults 100 80 60 40 33 20 30 0 President Trump US Congress 100 80 President Trump US Congress 81 % 60 30 40 30 28 37 28 20 20 16 9 34 26 24 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind 17 Approval of federal elected officials 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 44 44 47 All adults 53 55 56 Likely voters 68 70 59 Dem Dianne Feinstein Kamala Harris Own rep in House 43 20 18 47 48 49 Rep Ind 18 Outlook for the state Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? Don't know 6% Wrong direction 43% Right direction 51% Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? Don't know 10% Bad times 37% Good times 53% All adults 19 Federal crackdown on undocumented immigrants Do you think the federal crackdown on undocumented immigrants is a good thing for the country or a bad thing for the country? 100 80 78 60 % 40 51 39 20 51 42 17 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Good thing Bad thing 74 56 33 16 Rep Ind 20 Concern about increased federal immigration enforcement When it comes to increased federal immigration enforcement, how much do you worry that someone that you know could be deported? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 20 16 26 29 30 19 All adults African Asian Americans Americans 18 55 Latinos 19 14 Whites Some A lot 18 21 49 19 Born in US Not born in US 21 Importance of Supreme Court justice choice How important is the choice of the next Supreme Court justice to you personally—very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 100 80 % 60 40 20 0 24 59 All adults 18 74 Likely voters 16 74 Dem Somewhat important Very important 23 25 63 58 Rep Ind 22 Opposition to overturning Roe v. Wade As you may know, the 100 1973 Supreme Court case Roe v. Wade established a women’s 80 constitutional right to have an abortion. 60 Would you like to see % the Supreme Court overturn its Roe v. 40 Wade decision, or not? 20 66 76 0 All adults Likely voters % no, not overturn 83 53 Dem Rep 75 Ind 23 Preference for size of state government In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more? I’d rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, or I’d rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services. 80 60 % 40 20 50 44 49 46 Higher taxes and more services Lower taxes and fewer services 75 71 26 20 50 44 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind 24 State government’s role in reducing income inequality Should the state government be doing more to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor in California, or is this something that the state government should not be doing? 100 80 60 % 40 20 60 32 53 43 Should do more Should not be doing 77 16 71 25 56 39 0 All adults Likely voters Dem Rep Ind 25 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 26 Conclusions  Gavin Newsom leads John Cox and Dianne Feinstein leads Kevin de León by double digits, although their leads have shrunk since July  Half of likely voters consider this midterm election as more important than past midterms; a slight majority would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district  Proposition 6, which would repeal the gas tax increase, and Proposition 10, which would expand rent control authority, are both opposed by about half of likely voters  Governor Brown and the California Legislature are viewed much more positively than President Trump and Congress  Half of Californians think the federal immigration crackdown is a bad thing for the country; half worry that someone they know could be deported  There is bipartisan agreement regarding the importance of the choice of the next Supreme Court justice; most do not want the court to overturn Roe v. Wade 27 PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians & Their Government September 27, 2018 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Alyssa Dykman, Lunna Lopes Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle Notes on the use of these slides These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. 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