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could be particularly bad for California – Three in four residents are considered “hard to count,” including children, young men, Latinos, African Americans, and renters 2 Outline  Population growth and reapportionment  Impact of an undercount on reapportionment  Impact of an undercount on redistricting  Conclusions and recommendations 3 The census is used to reallocate US House seats  Reapportionment: assigning the 435 seats in the House of Representatives to states – State populations are fed into a fixed formula  Key factor: population growth relative to other states – Growth alone is not enough – Threshold effects make results less predictable 4 California is projected to keep 53 House seats in 2020  California population: 40.6 million people in 2020 – Up 8.9% from 2010 – Slowest growth rate in state history – Growth rate slightly higher than the rest of the nation  California is on track to keep its 53 House seats – Margin for 53rd seat is 600,000 – Unlikely to lose a seat with an accurate count 5 An accurate census would affect seats in other states— but not California 6 Outline  Population growth and reapportionment  Impact of an undercount on reapportionment  Impact of an undercount on redistricting  Conclusions and recommendations 7 There are two likely sources of an undercount  Low accuracy – Limited funding may prevent strong outreach – Switch to online form without appropriate follow-up – Result: historically undercounted groups are undercounted again  Immigration-related – Aggressive federal enforcement of immigration laws – Citizenship question – Result: low response among immigrant communities 8 Modeling undercount effects: low accuracy  Low accuracy – Use undercounts from 1990 Census (a “bad” census) – Assume same groups will be undercounted at the same rates Group A in 1990 Undercounted by 5% Group A’s projected 2020 population X 0.95 9 Modeling undercount effects: immigration-related  Immigration-related – Research suggests undercounts between 10% and 50% – 10% provides conservative lower bound – Undercount anyone in a household with at least one undocumented resident Undocumented households in projected 2020 population X 0.9  Our primary undercount scenario combines low-accuracy and immigration-related simulations 10 A poorly conducted census with low immigrant response could cost California a House seat 11 By itself, a poorly conducted census probably would not cost California a House seat 12 But a poorly conducted census might cost California a seat under certain conditions  California might lose a seat if historically undercounted groups are: – Undercounted 5% worse than in 1990 – Undercounted 3% worse for every undercounted group and 3% better for every overcounted group – Undercounted by 1% in California, but not in other states 13 By itself, low response rates among immigrants probably would not cost California a seat 14 But an immigration-related undercount might cost California a seat under certain conditions  California might lose a seat if: – Undocumented households are undercounted by 19% – Undocumented households are undercounted by 13% in California but not other states – Noncitizen households are undercounted by 8% – Latinos and Asians/Pacific Islanders are undercounted by 4% 15 A better count in California could make a big difference  The state budget includes $90.3 million for census outreach  If California… – improves combined undercount by 1%: no seat loss – improves combined undercount by 5%: one-seat gain – improves low-accuracy undercount by 3%: one-seat gain 16 Outline  Population growth and reapportionment  Impact of an undercount on reapportionment  Impact of an undercount on redistricting  Conclusions and recommendations 17 The census affects political boundaries within the state  Redistricting: drawing district lines within the state – Congressional districts  almost exactly equal population – State legislative and other districts  close to equal population  District lines cannot be predicted exactly—too many options – Areas of state that have grown more will get more representation – An inaccurate census could distort that representation 18 Combined undercount would divert representation away from low-income communities of color 19 Outline  Population growth and reapportionment  Impact of an undercount on reapportionment  Impact of an undercount on redistricting  Conclusions and recommendations 20 Conclusions  The 2020 Census faces many political and practical challenges  If the census fails to reach historically undercounted groups and immigrant communities: – California could lose a House seat – Political representation would shift away from poorer areas with larger communities of color  California could lose a seat in many alternative scenarios too – All would have to be relatively serious 21 Recommendations  Watch for problems using Department of Finance estimates  California might be able to use other data for redistricting – A separate census – Adjusted US Census numbers using undercount estimates – Legal status is ambiguous  Leading up to the census, strong outreach efforts could make a big difference – Some scenarios even have California gaining a seat 22 The 2020 Census and Political Representation in California October 11, 2018 Eric McGhee, Sarah Bohn, and Tess Thorman Supported with funding from the California Community Foundation, the California Endowment, the California Health Care Foundation, and Silicon Valley Community Foundation Notes on the use of these slides These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid misinterpretations, please contact: Eric McGhee (mcghee@ppic.org; 415-291-4439) Thank you for your interest in this work. 24" } ["___content":protected]=> string(168) "

Eventbriefing Politicalrepresentation1018

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