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PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and the Environment, July 2018

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object(Timber\Post)#3742 (44) { ["ImageClass"]=> string(12) "Timber\Image" ["PostClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Post" ["TermClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Term" ["object_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["custom"]=> array(5) { ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(35) "ppic-statewide-survey-july-2018.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "742044" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(85942) "PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 Californians & the Environment Mark Baldassare Dean Bonner Alyssa Dykman Lunna Lopes CONTENTS Press Release 2018 Election and Environmental Issues Public Perceptions and Policy Preferences Regional Map Methodology Questionnaire and Results 3 6 14 22 23 25 Supported with funding from the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, the Dirk and Charlene Kabcenell Foundation, the Flora Family Foundation, and the Heising-Simons Foundation The PPIC Statewide Survey provides a voice for the public and likely voters— informing policymakers, encouraging discussion, and raising awareness on critical issues of the day. © 2018 Public Policy Institute of California The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. PPIC is a public charity. It does not take or support positions on any ballot measures or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source. Research publications reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or of the staff, officers, advisory councils, or board of directors of the Public Policy Institute of California. PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY News Release JULY 2018 CONTACT Abby Cook 415-291-4436 EMBARGOED: Do not publish or broadcast until 9:00 p.m. PDT on Wednesday, July 25, 2018. Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: www.ppic.org/press-release/ PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THE ENVIRONMENT Most Say Environmental Issues Are Key in Governor’s Race NEWSOM, FEINSTEIN MAINTAIN STRONG LEADS—MAJORITY SUPPORT WATER BOND SAN FRANCISCO, July 25, 2018—Nearly all California likely voters say the candidates’ positions on the environment are important in determining their vote in the governor’s race, according to a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC). Democrat Gavin Newsom leads Republican John Cox in that race by 24 points. A majority of likely voters (56%) say the candidates’ environmental positions are very important in determining their votes—the largest share to express this view since PPIC first asked likely voters the question in 2006 (44%). Another third of likely voters (31%) say candidate positions on the environment are somewhat important. Across party lines, 67 percent of Democratic likely voters say the candidates’ environmental stances are very important; about half of independents (54%) and a third of Republicans (33%) hold this view. Newsom, the lieutenant governor, leads businessman Cox 55 percent to 31 percent among likely voters today, with 9 percent undecided. Preferences follow party lines, with 86 percent of Democratic likely voters favoring Newsom and 84 percent of Republicans favoring Cox. Newsom leads among independents, 41 percent to 33 percent. A solid majority of Latino likely voters (64%) and about half of white likely voters (49%) prefer Newsom. (Sample sizes for Asian American and African American likely voters are too small for separate analysis.) Underscoring Californians’ views about the importance of environmental issues, adults in the state are much more likely than those nationwide to say that global warming is extremely or very important to them personally: 62 percent of California adults express this view, compared to 48 percent of American adults in a June ABC News/Stanford/Resources for the Future poll. A majority of the state’s likely voters (57%) say global warming poses a very serious threat to the economy and quality of life in California, and a strong majority (69%) say that the effects of global warming have already begun. A large majority of likely voters (66%) say they are very concerned that extreme weather—when thinking about the possible effect of global warming in California—will result in more severe wildfires. Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO, summed up: “Many Californians are concerned about the personal impact of global warming in the wake of a prolonged drought and in the face of fears that extreme weather may result in more severe wildfires.” Feinstein Leads de León by Nearly Two to One In her bid for a fifth full term as US senator, Dianne Feinstein leads fellow Democrat and state senator Kevin de León 46 percent to 24 percent among likely voters, with 9 percent undecided. She has PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 3 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 majority support among Democratic likely voters (66%) and leads de León among independents (38% to 24%). With no Republican candidates to choose from, 47 percent of Republican likely voters and 24 percent of independents say they would not vote in this race. Feinstein leads by at least 20 points among likely voters across education and racial/ethnic groups, as well as among women, those age 55 and older, and residents in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area. When the likely voters who volunteer that they would not vote in this race are excluded, Feinstein has a 28-point lead (58% to 30%). The survey asks if it is more important that candidates for statewide office—such as governor or US senator—work with the Trump administration on environmental issues or push back. Most likely voters (55%) prefer that candidates push back, while 39 percent prefer that candidates work with the administration. Among likely voters who prefer candidates to push back against the Trump administration, 62 percent favor Feinstein and 25 percent favor de León. Half Approve of Brown, A Third Approve of Trump Just over half of California likely voters approve of the way Jerry Brown is doing his job as governor (54%) and the way he is handling environmental issues (53%). The legislature has ratings of 46 percent overall and 43 percent on environmental issues. In contrast to the ratings likely voters give to state leaders, just 34 percent approve of the way Donald Trump is doing his job as president and 27 percent approve of how he is handling environmental issues. Congress’s approval ratings are even lower—14 percent overall and 16 percent on environmental issues. At a time when state and federal leaders are moving in different directions on climate change and energy issues, 62 percent of California likely voters say they favor the state government making its own policies—separate from the federal government—to address global warming. Majorities of adults across regions and across age, education, gender, and income groups hold this view. Across parties, solid majorities of Californians registered as Democrats (82%) and independents (61%) concur, while just 29 percent of registered Republicans favor the state making its own policies. Governor Brown is preparing to bring leaders from around the world to San Francisco for a climate change summit in September. Asked about the importance of the state acting as a leader in efforts to fight climate change, 51 percent of likely voters say it is very important (22% somewhat important). Majority Favor Raising Fuel Emissions Standards for Autos The federal Environmental Protection Agency has moved to relax emissions standards for automobiles, prompting a lawsuit by California and other states. California currently has a waiver allowing it to set its own higher standards. Asked about setting higher emissions standards for automobiles, 60 percent of likely voters say yes. Likely voters also support goals to limit greenhouse gas emissions in other areas. A solid majority (66%) favor the state law requiring reduction of emissions to 40 percent below 1990 levels by the year 2030. Strong majorities of registered Democrats (82%) and independents (68%) express this view, as do 41 percent of Republicans. A proposed law would require all of the state’s electricity to come from renewable energy sources by the year 2045, with a goal of 50 percent by 2026. What do Californians think of this idea? A solid majority of likely voters (67%) favor it. Across parties, 81 percent of registered Democrats, 73 percent of independents, and 47 percent of Republicans are in favor. Most Say Climate Change Policies Will Raise Gas Prices How do Californians view the economic impact of the state’s efforts to address global warming? Half of likely voters (51%) say these actions will result in more jobs for state residents, while 19 percent say the result will be fewer jobs (21% no effect). However, a majority of likely voters (58%) say action to reduce PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 4 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 global warming will increase gasoline prices (12% decrease gas prices, 19% no effect). Half of likely voters (51%) say they are willing to pay more for electricity if it is generated by renewable resources. “Most Californians have factored in higher gas prices, and say they are willing to pay higher electricity prices,” Baldassare said. “They expect more jobs as the byproducts of the state’s efforts to reduce global warming.” When likely voters are read a brief description of the state’s cap-and-trade policy, half (50%) say they favor the system, which allows companies that don’t emit their allotted share of greenhouse gases to sell their state-issued permits to other companies to use. Water Seen as Most Important Environmental Issue Drought and water supply are named most frequently when likely voters are asked about the most important environmental issue facing the state today (24%). The proportion of likely voters expressing this view has dropped sharply in the last two years (43% in July 2016). A large majority of likely voters say the supply of water is a big problem (60%) or at least somewhat of a problem (25%) in their part of California. Across regions, Orange/San Diego residents (55%) are the most likely to say the water supply is a big problem where they live, while San Francisco Bay Area residents (43%) are the least likely to say so. In November, Californians will vote on an $8.9 billion bond measure, Proposition 3, to fund water infrastructure projects. A majority of likely voters (58%) plan to vote yes and a quarter (25%) no (17% undecided). “The drought and water shortages are still on Californians’ minds,” Baldassare said. “They seem willing to support a water bond on the November ballot after passing a multibillion-dollar water bond measure in June.” The second most frequently named issue among likely voters is air pollution (15%). Two-thirds say air pollution is a problem in their part of the state (29% big problem, 37% somewhat of a problem). Residents in Los Angeles (40%) are the most likely to say it is a big problem and those in Orange/ San Diego are the least likely (17%). About half of likely voters (53%) say air pollution is a more serious health threat in lower-income areas than elsewhere in their part of the state. Majority Oppose More Coastal Drilling Earlier this year, the federal government announced plans to allow new offshore oil drilling in areas along the nation’s coasts. Today, two-thirds of likely voters (67%) oppose more oil drilling off the California coast. Among all adults, majorities of both coastal (71%) and inland (59%) residents oppose more drilling. Across parties, an overwhelming majority of registered Democrats (82%) and a strong majority of independents (66%) are opposed, while a majority of Republicans (54%) are in favor. The Trump administration’s efforts to open up more of the nation’s coasts to offshore drilling could alter national marine sanctuaries and affect California’s marine protected areas. However, 88 percent of likely voters support maintaining the rules and boundaries of national sanctuaries and state marine protected areas to protect fish, wildlife, and their habitat. Asked how concerned they are about the impact of ocean warming on marine and coastal life, 77 percent of likely voters say they are very concerned or somewhat concerned. A majority of likely voters (56%) say the population of most fish off of the California coast has decreased. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 5 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 2018 Election and Environmental Issues Key Findings  A majority of likely voters say environmental positions are very important in the governor’s race, in which Gavin Newsom leads John Cox by 24 points. (page 7)  In US Senate race, likely voters support incumbent Dianne Feinstein over Kevin de León by 22 points. One in five volunteer that they would not vote in this race. A majority of likely voters say that it is more important to them that candidates for statewide office push back rather than work with the Trump administration when it comes to environmental issues. (page 8)  Fifty-eight percent of likely voters would vote yes on the $8.9 billion water bond on the November ballot. Californians and likely voters are most likely to name water supply and drought as the most important environmental issue. Half of adults say water supply is a big problem in their part of the state. (page 9)  Twenty-nine percent of adults say air pollution is a big problem in their part of the state, with wide differences across regions. A majority say air pollution is a more serious threat in lower-income areas. (page 10)  Four in ten adults rate the overall health and quality of the ocean along the coast as excellent or good. Half say the population of most fish off the California coast has decreased in the past 10 years. (page 11)  More than seven in ten are concerned about the impact of warming oceans on marine life and the impact of rising sea levels on the coast. (page 12)  Sixty-seven percent of adults oppose more oil drilling off the coast. An overwhelming majority support maintaining the rules and boundaries of national marine sanctuaries and marine protected areas. (page 13) PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Percent likely voters Percent likely voters Importance of gubernatorial candidates' positions on the environment 100 % saying very important 80 60 56 44 41 40 40 20 0 Jul-06 Jul-10 Jul-14 Support for $8.9 billion state water bond 100 Jul-18 Percent likely voters 80 65 60 61 60 52 54 40 20 0 Central Valley Inland Empire Los Orange/San San Angeles Diego Francisco Bay Area Most important environmental issue facing California 100 80 60 40 24 20 15 0 Water supply and drought Air pollution 12 Global warming 8 Water Pollution Californians and the Environment 6 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 Gubernatorial Election On the heels of the highest reported turnout rate in a midterm primary election since 1998, six in ten likely voters are following news about candidates very (17%) or fairly (42%) closely. Attention to news today is similar to July 2014 (11% very, 42% fairly) and lower than it was in July 2010 (22% very, 48% fairly)—when California had partisan primaries and an open gubernatorial election featuring Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman. With the gubernatorial election less than four months away—and after a primary race in which Democrat Gavin Newsom led all candidates with 34 percent of the vote—Newsom now leads Republican John Cox by a 24-point margin (55% to 31%) among likely voters. One in ten likely voters are undecided. Gubernatorial preferences follow party lines, with each candidate receiving support from at least eight in ten in their respective parties. Newsom leads Cox by 8 points among independents. A solid majority of Latino likely voters (64%) and about half of white likely voters (49%) prefer Newsom. (Sample sizes for Asian American and African American likely voters are too small for separate analysis.) Cox has majority support among likely voters in the Inland Empire (55%), while Newsom leads in Los Angeles (68%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (61%). A plurality of likely voters in Orange/San Diego prefer Newsom (47%), while those in the Central Valley are divided (45% Newsom, 44% Cox). “If the November 6 election for governor were being held today, would you vote for John Cox, a Republican, or Gavin Newsom, a Democrat?” Likely voters only All likely voters Gavin Newsom, a Democrat 55% Dem 86% Party Rep 10% Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups 41% 64% 49% 71% John Cox, a Republican Would not vote for governor (volunteered) Don’t know 31 5 9 3 84 33 24 4 1 12 3 7 5 15 9 39 4 8 15 6 8 When asked how important the candidates’ positions on the environment are in determining their vote, nearly all likely voters say they are very (56%) or somewhat (31%) important. The share of likely voters saying very important is the highest it has been since PPIC began asking likely voters this question in 2006. Today, two in three Democratic likely voters (67%) say these positions are very important, compared to half of independents (54%) and a third of Republicans (33%). Of those supporting Newsom for governor, 70 percent say the candidates’ positions on the environment are very important; 25 percent of Cox supporters hold this view. Likely voters in the San Francisco Bay Area (62%) are the most likely to say the candidates’ environmental positions are very important, followed by those in Los Angeles (55%), the Inland Empire (52%), Orange/San Diego (51%), and the Central Valley (51%). The share of likely voters saying the candidates’ positions on the environment are very important (56%) is slightly lower than the share that said positions on K–12 public education were very important (64%) in our April survey. “In thinking about the California governor’s election in November, how important to you are the candidates’ positions on the environment in determining your vote?” Likely voters only Very important Somewhat important Not too important Don’t know All likely voters 56% 31 13 1 Dem 67% 29 3 1 Party Rep 33% 39 27 1 Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups 54% 59% 52% 62% 33 30 32 31 13 11 15 7 –– 1 – PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 7 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 US Senate Election Senator Dianne Feinstein, who is seeking her fifth full term as US senator, leads fellow Democrat and state senator Kevin de León by almost a two-to-one margin (46% to 24%) among likely voters. Feinstein received 44 percent of the vote in the June primary. Feinstein has majority support among Democrats (66%) and leads de León among independents (38% to 24%). Notably, with no Republicans to choose from, 47 percent of Republicans and 24 percent of independents say they would not vote in this race. Feinstein leads by at least 20 points among likely voters across education and racial/ethnic groups, women, those age 55 and older, and those in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area. Likely voters who support Newsom favor Feinstein over de León (64% to 25%); 49 percent of Cox supporters say they would not vote in this race. When we exclude those who volunteer they would not vote, Feinstein has a 28 point lead over de León (58% to 30%). “If the November 6 election for the US Senate were being held today, would you vote for Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat, or Kevin de León, a Democrat?” Likely voters only Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat All likely voters 46% Dem 66% Party Rep 22% Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups 38% 52% 44% 52% Kevin de León, a Democrat 24 22 25 24 27 Would not vote for US senator (volunteered) 20 3 47 24 10 Don’t know 9 9 5 15 10 22 25 9 31 8 9 When asked whether it is more important that candidates for statewide office—such as governor or US senator—work with or push back against the Trump administration on environmental issues, a majority of likely voters (55%) prefer candidates to push back, while four in ten (39%) prefer that they work with the administration. There is a wide partisan divide, and half of independents prefer pushing back against the Trump administration. Latinos are more likely to prefer pushing back, while whites are divided. Half in the Central Valley (51%) and Orange/San Diego (51%) say work with, while majorities in the San Francisco Bay Area (64%) and Los Angeles (60%) say push back; likely voters in the Inland Empire are divided (47% push back, 46% work with). Of those who say candidates should push back, 62 percent would vote for Dianne Feinstein and 25 percent would vote for Kevin de León. Among likely voters who say work with the Trump administration, 42 percent would not vote in the US senate race. “Which of the following is more important to you in candidates for statewide office, such as governor or US senator, when it comes to environmental issues—that they work with the Trump administration or that they push back against the Trump administration?” Likely voters only Work with the Trump administration Push back against the Trump administration Both (volunteered) All likely voters 39% 55 3 Dem 12% 81 3 Party Rep 84% 13 2 Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups 40% 30% 45% 30% 51 68 49 61 41 3 3 Don’t know 3 41 5 1 2 6 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 8 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 State Bond Measure and Water Supply Californians will go to the polls in November to vote on an $8.9 billion bond measure to fund water infrastructure projects (Proposition 3) such as water supply and quality, watershed, and fisheries improvements. This follows the passage of June’s Proposition 68—a $4.1 billion bond measure to fund parks, natural resources protection, climate adaptation, water, and flood protection—which was supported by 58 percent of voters. When asked about the $8.9 billion bond measure, 58 percent of likely voters would vote yes, while 25 percent would vote no. Democratic likely voters (72%) are far more likely than independents (48%) and Republicans (43%) to express support for this bond. Support is much higher among Latino likely voters (76%) than whites (53%) and those in other racial/ethnic groups (57%). Support is highest in Orange/San Diego (65%), followed by Los Angeles (61%), the Inland Empire (60%), the San Francisco Bay Area (54%), and the Central Valley (52%). Among likely voters who would vote yes on this bond measure, 64 percent say the supply of water is a big problem in their part of the state. “The November 6 ballot has a state bond measure of approximately $8.9 billion to pay for various water infrastructure projects. If the election were being held today, would you vote yes or no?” Likely voters only Yes All likely voters 58% Dem 72% Party Rep 43% Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups 48% 76% 53% 57% No 25 16 38 25 17 28 27 Don’t know 17 12 19 26 8 19 16 Although the historic California drought officially ended over a year ago, Californians (19% adults, 24% likely voters) are most likely to name drought and water supply as the most important environmental issue facing the state today. However, the proportion of Californians naming drought and water supply has decreased sharply since July 2016, when 38 percent of adults and 43 percent of likely voters cited it as the most important environmental issue. Today, 8 percent of Californians and likely voters name water pollution as the most important environmental issue facing the state. When asked specifically about the supply of water in their part of the state, 48 percent of Californians and 60 percent of likely voters say it is a big problem. The share of Californians saying water supply is a big problem is higher today than in March (45% adults, 53% likely voters) and last July (37% adults, 42% likely voters). Currently, Orange/San Diego residents (55%) are the most likely to say the water supply is a big problem in their region, while residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (43%) are the least likely to say this. Majorities of Californians across political parties say the supply of water is a big problem. Across racial/ethnic groups, whites (59%) are much more likely than African Americans (40%), Latinos (38%), and Asian Americans (37%) to say the supply of water is a big problem. “Would you say that the supply of water is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem in your part of California?” All adults Big problem Somewhat of a problem Not much of a problem Don’t know 48% 24 25 2 Central Valley 49% 22 26 2 Inland Empire 48% 20 28 4 Region Los Angeles 44% 23 30 3 Orange/ San Diego 55% 25 18 2 San Francisco Bay Area 43% 30 26 1 Likely voters 60% 25 14 1 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 9 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 Air Pollution Sixteen percent of adults and 15 percent of likely voters name air pollution as the most important environmental issue facing California today. When asked about air pollution in their part of California, two in three Californians and likely voters say it is a problem (29% big problem, 37% somewhat of a problem). A third say it is not a problem in their part of California. The proportion of Californians saying that air pollution is a big problem was similar last July (24% adults, 21% likely voters). Today, residents in Los Angeles (40%) and the Central Valley (34%) are the most likely to say that air pollution is a big problem. Democrats (33%) and independents (31%) are somewhat more likely than Republicans (23%) to say that air pollution is a big problem. Notably, Latinos and African Americans (37% each) are more likely than Asian Americans (27%) and whites (22%) to hold this view. Across income groups, Californians with annual household incomes under $80,000 are more likely than those with higher incomes to say air pollution is a big problem in their part of the state. “Would you say that air pollution is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem in your part of California?” All adults Big problem Somewhat of a problem Not a problem Don’t know 29% 37 33 1 Central Valley 34% 36 27 3 Inland Empire 28% 44 28 – Region Los Angeles 40% 37 22 – Orange/ San Diego 17% 37 44 1 San Francisco Bay Area 24% 39 36 1 Likely voters 29% 37 33 – A majority of California adults (56%) and likely voters (53%) think that air pollution in their part of the state is a more serious health threat in lower-income areas than elsewhere. Findings were similar last July (55% adults, 45% likely voters). Today, Democrats (67%) and independents (54%) are far more likely than Republicans (30%) to say that air pollution is a more serious threat in lower-income areas. The likelihood of saying air pollution is a greater health threat in lower-income areas decreases as income rises. Latinos and African Americans are much more likely than Asian Americans and far more likely than whites to hold this view. Renters (62%) are more likely than homeowners (48%) and Californians under age 55 (60%) are more likely than those age 55 and over (47%) to think air pollution is a greater threat in lower-income areas. Regionally, residents in Los Angeles (66%) are the most likely to say air pollution is a more serious threat in lower-income areas (56% San Francisco Bay Area, 55% Orange/San Diego, 53% Inland Empire, 45% Central Valley). Notably, 60 percent of coastal residents hold this view, whereas inland residents are divided (47% more serious health threat in lower-income areas, 47% not a more serious threat). “Do you think that air pollution is a more serious health threat in lower-income areas than other areas in your part of California, or not?” Yes No Don’t know All adults 56% 38 6 Household income Under $40,000 $40,000 to under $80,000 $80,000 or more 64% 56% 48% 32 41 46 437 Race/Ethnicity African Asian Americans Americans Latinos 76% 23 2 58% 36 6 71% 25 4 Whites 42% 51 7 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 10 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 Ocean and Coastal Ratings Most Californians value the state’s coast—74 percent say the condition of the ocean and beaches is very important to the economy and quality of life in California’s future. Findings were similar last July (73% very important). More than seven in ten adults across all political parties and across all age, income, and education groups say these conditions are very important. Across regions, more than two in three adults say these conditions are very important, with residents in Los Angeles most likely to express this view (80%). Strong majorities of both coastal (76%) and inland (70%) residents say the condition of the ocean and beaches is very important to the state’s future. While a strong majority of Californians view the state’s ocean and beaches as very important to the state’s economy and quality of life, only four in ten give a positive rating (9% excellent, 30% good) to the overall health and quality of the ocean along the state’s coast. A majority of Californians say the overall health and quality of the ocean along the state’s coast is fair (38%) or poor (19%). In our February 2006 survey, Californians gave similar ratings (4% excellent, 36% good, 42% fair, 13% poor). Residents along the north and central coast (44% excellent or good) are slightly more likely than south coast residents (37%) to provide positive ratings. At least half of residents across age, education, income, and racial/ethnic groups rate overall ocean quality along the coast as fair or poor. “Thinking about the overall health and quality of the ocean along the California coast today—would you rate them as excellent, good, fair, or poor?” Excellent All adults 9% Region* North and central coast* South coast* 13% 9% Inland 5% African Americans 2% Race/Ethnicity Asian Americans Latinos 9% 12% Whites 7% Good 30 31 28 33 25 20 34 33 Fair 38 36 40 37 44 42 35 39 Poor 19 15 21 20 25 24 15 18 Don’t know 4 5 364 5 43 * Here and in the rest of the report, “North and central coast” refers to the coastal counties northward from San Luis Obispo County to Del Norte County, including all of the San Francisco Bay Area counties. “South coast” includes coastal counties southward from Santa Barbara County. A majority of Californians (53%) say that in the past 10 years, the population of most fish off the California coast has decreased. Democrats (59%) and independents (57%) are more likely than Republicans (46%) to say this. Majorities across regions—with the exception of Los Angeles (49%)—say that the population of fish has decreased in the last 10 years. Across racial/ethnic groups, whites are the most likely to say this while African Americans are the least likely. “In the past 10 years, do you think the population of most fish off of the California coast have increased, decreased, or stayed about the same?” Increased All adults 12% North and central coast 13% Region South coast 13% Inland 10% African Americans 25% Race/Ethnicity Asian Americans Latinos 10% 15% Whites 9% Decreased 53 52 52 56 41 52 51 58 Stayed about the same 22 20 23 22 26 19 22 21 Don’t know 13 16 13 12 9 19 12 12 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 11 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 Ocean and Coastal Concerns Half of Californians (50%) are very concerned about ocean warming having an impact on marine and coastal life. A further 28 percent are somewhat concerned about this, while 22 percent are not too or not at all concerned. A slight majority of coastal residents (52%) are very concerned about this issue, while slightly fewer inland residents (44%) say the same. Across racial/ethnic groups, African Americans are the most likely to say they are very concerned while Latinos are the least likely. Today, Democrats (65%) and independents (57%) are much more likely than Republicans (27%) to say they are very concerned about this issue. Notably, college graduates are much more likely than those with only a high school education to say they are very concerned (58% to 41%). “How concerned are you about ocean warming having an impact on marine and coastal life?” Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not too concerned Not at all concerned Don’t know All adults 50% 28 13 9 1 North and central coast 54% Region South coast 51% 28 28 11 11 69 –1 Inland 44% 28 15 12 1 African Americans 56% Race/Ethnicity Asian Americans Latinos 52% 47% Whites 49% 26 30 33 24 13 10 12 14 3 7 6 12 2 – 11 When asked about rising sea levels, 45 percent of adults say they are very concerned about flooding and beach erosion; 29 percent are somewhat concerned. A quarter of adults say they are not too (14%) or not at all (11%) concerned. Notably, residents in the north and central coast (51%) and in the south coast (47%) are more likely than inland residents (37%) to say they are very concerned about flooding and beach erosion. Across racial/ethnic groups, Latinos are the most likely to be very concerned about this issue while whites are the least likely. As with concerns about ocean warming, Democrats (56%) and independents (44%) are far more likely than Republicans (22%) to be very concerned about this issue. Regionally, San Francisco Bay Area residents (51%) are the most likely to be very concerned and those in the Inland Empire (31%) are the least likely, with other regions falling in between (40% Central Valley, 42% Orange/San Diego, 48% Los Angeles). “How concerned are you about rising sea levels having an impact on flooding and beach erosion?” Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not too concerned Not at all concerned Don’t know All adults 45% 29 14 11 1 North and central coast 51% Region South coast 47% 30 27 11 14 7 10 –2 Inland 37% 30 15 17 2 African Americans 44% Race/Ethnicity Asian Americans Latinos 46% 51% Whites 40% 32 35 31 25 10 14 9 18 9 2 7 17 5 2 21 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 12 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 Ocean and Coastal Policies In January, the Department of the Interior released Support for allowing more oil drilling off the plans to allow new offshore oil drilling in areas California coast along the nation’s coast. When asked about allowing more oil drilling off the California 100 Favor Oppose coast, only 27 percent of adults are in favor of it; 67 percent are opposed. Findings were similar 80 67 Percent all adults last July (25% favor, 69% oppose) while support was somewhat higher in 2016 (36% favor, 59% 60 oppose). Across parties, an overwhelming majority of Democrats (82%) and a strong 40 majority of independents (66%) are opposed while a slight majority of Republicans (54%) are 20 27 in favor. Similar to last year, majorities across all age, education, income, and racial/ethnic 0 groups remain opposed. Regionally, fewer than a third of residents—with the exception of the Inland Empire (38%)—favor more oil drilling off the coast (22% Los Angeles, 22% San Francisco Bay Area, 27% Orange/San Diego, 32% Central Valley). Majorities of both coastal (71%) and inland (59%) residents oppose allowing more oil drilling off the California coast. “How about more oil drilling off the California coast? Do you favor or oppose this proposal?” Favor All adults 27% North and central coast 22% Region South coast 24% Inland 35% 18 to 34 25% Age 35 to 54 55 and older 26% 29% Oppose 67 72 70 59 67 72 62 Don’t know 66 5 6 82 9 The Trump administration’s efforts to open up more of the nation’s coast to offshore oil drilling could alter existing national marine sanctuaries and impact California’s marine protected areas (MPAs). An overwhelming majority of Californians (88%) support maintaining the existing rules and boundaries of national marine sanctuaries and MPAs off the California coast. There is bipartisan agreement, with at least eight in ten registered voters across parties in favor of maintaining these rules and boundaries. Indeed, more than three in four adults across regional, age, education, income, and racial/ethnic groups favor maintaining the rules and boundaries of national marine sanctuaries and California’s MPAs. “How about maintaining the rules and boundaries of national marine sanctuaries and California’s Marine Protected Areas—or MPAs—to protect fish, wildlife, and their habitat off the California coast? Do you favor or oppose this proposal?” All adults North and central coast Region South coast Inland 18 to 34 Age 35 to 54 55 and older Favor 88% 89% 89% 86% 90% 90% 86% Oppose 87 8 9 6 6 11 Don’t know 45 3 4 44 3 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 13 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 Public Perceptions and Policy Preferences Key Findings  About half of Californians approve of the overall job performance of Governor Brown and the legislature; approval of their handling of environmental issues is similar. Overall approval ratings for President Trump and Congress—as well as approval ratings of their handling of environmental issues—are far lower. (pages 15, 16)  Six in ten adults and likely voters favor California making its own policies to address global warming. Three in four say that it is important that California act as a global leader on climate change. (page 17)  Majorities of Californians say the effects of global warming have already begun and that global warming is a very serious threat to California’s future. Six in ten Californians are very concerned about severe wildfires and say that the issue of global warming is of personal importance to them. (page 18)  Solid majorities of adults and likely voters support the state law requiring California to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. Support is similar for a proposed law that would require 100 percent of the state’s electricity to come from renewable sources by 2045, and for a proposal to set higher emissions standards for automobiles. (page 19)  About half of adults and likely voters expect that California doing things to reduce global warming would lead to more jobs; a majority expect that state action would lead to higher gasoline prices. Half say they are willing to pay more for electricity from renewable sources. (page 20)  Half of adults say they have heard nothing about the state’s cap-and-trade system. After hearing a brief description, half favor the system. (page 21) PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Percent all adults Percent all adults Percent all adults Approval of state elected officials on environmental issues Governor Brown 80 California Legislature 60 47 47 49 51 48 39 40 35 39 51 48 42 43 36 38 38 31 20 0 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Concern about more severe wildfires as a possible impact of global warming Somewhat concerned 100 Very concerned 80 25 22 21 28 24 60 40 61 54 63 59 67 20 0 Central Valley Inland Empire Los Orange/San San Angeles Diego Francisco Bay Area Personal importance of the issue of global warming 100 80 20 60 Somewhat important Very important Extremely important 28 34 40 28 20 28 0 Californians 20 Adults nationwide* *June 2018, ABC News/Stanford/Resources for the Future poll Californians and the Environment 14 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 Approval Ratings of State Elected Officials Majorities of Californians (52% adults, 54% likely voters) approve of the way Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor. Approval ratings for Brown were similar in May (48% adults, 52% likely voters) and last July (53% adults, 52% likely voters). Today, Democrats (71%) are far more likely than independents (48%) and Republicans (16%) to express approval. Across regions, approval is highest in the San Francisco Bay Area (59%) and Los Angeles (59%). Latinos (61%), Asian Americans (58%), and African Americans (53%) are more likely than whites (45%) to approve. About half of Californians also approve of the way Governor Brown is handling environmental issues (48% adults, 53% likely voters)—similar to last July (51% adults, 53% likely voters). Among all adults, approval of his handling of environmental issues has increased by 13 points since he took office in 2011. Today, Democrats (65%) are much more likely than independents (43%) and Republicans (22%) to approve. Regionally, San Francisco Bay Area residents (59%) are the most likely to approve. “Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling…?” All adults Dem Party Rep His job as governor of California Environmental issues in California Approve Disapprove Don’t know Approve Disapprove Don’t know 52% 29 19 48 31 21 71% 14 15 65 18 17 16% 79 5 22 69 9 Ind 48% 34 18 43 37 20 Likely voters 54% 37 8 53 37 10 About half of Californians (46% adults, 46% likely voters) approve of the way the California Legislature is handling its job. Approval was similar in May (44% adults, 42% likely voters) and last July (50% adults, 45% likely voters). Today, Democrats (60%) are much more likely than independents (42%) and Republicans (13%) to approve. Majorities approve of the legislature in Los Angeles (53%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (52%). Majorities of Latinos (59%) and Asian Americans (53%) approve, compared to fewer African Americans (44%) and whites (37%). Four in ten Californians (43% adults, 43% likely voters) approve of the way the legislature is handling environmental issues. Approval was somewhat higher last July (51% adults, 49% likely voters) but has increased by 12 points among all adults since 2011. Today, Democrats (56%) are much more likely to approve than independents (37%) and Republicans (19%). Residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (50%) and Los Angeles (47%) are more likely than those in other regions to approve. Latinos (51%) and Asian Americans (48%) are more likely than African Americans (38%) and whites (38%) to approve. “Do you approve or disapprove of the way the California Legislature is handling…?” All adults Dem Party Rep Ind Its job Environmental issues in California Approve Disapprove Don’t know Approve Disapprove Don’t know 46% 60% 13% 42% 38 26 81 46 15 13 6 13 43 56 19 37 41 29 74 48 16 15 7 15 Likely voters 46% 46 8 43 47 11 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 15 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 Approval Ratings of Federal Elected Officials Twenty-nine percent of adults and 34 percent of likely voters approve of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president of the United States. Approval was similar in May (30% adults, 38% likely voters) and last July (25% adults, 34% likely voters). Today, 7 percent of Democrats, 32 percent of independents, and 80 percent of Republicans approve. Approval is much higher among whites (41%) than among Asian Americans (24%), Latinos (17%), and African Americans (13%). Approval among Californians is 14 points lower than among adults nationwide in a July Gallup weekly tracking poll (43%). Californians’ approval ratings are similar for the president’s handling of environmental issues (24% adults, 27% likely voters). Approval of the president’s handling of environmental issues was similar last July (22% adults, 31% likely voters). Today, 4 percent of Democrats, 20 percent of independents, and 67 percent of Republicans approve of the president’s handling of environmental issues. Majorities across age, education, gender, income, and racial/ethnic groups and regions of the state disapprove of the way the president is handling environmental issues. “Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling…?” All adults Dem Party Rep His job as president of the United States Approve Disapprove Don’t know 29% 7% 80% 66 90 20 53– Environmental issues in the United States Approve Disapprove Don’t know 24 4 67 67 91 22 8 5 11 Ind 32% 66 3 20 73 7 Likely voters 34% 64 2 27 67 6 The US Congress has low overall approval ratings among Californians (20% adults, 14% likely voters). Approval of Congress was similar in May (24% adults, 18% likely voters) and last July (24% adults, 17% likely voters). Today, 9 percent of Democrats, 19 percent of independents, and 29 percent of Republicans approve of Congress. Majorities across age, education, gender, income, and racial/ethnic groups and regions of the state disapprove of the way that the US Congress is handling its job. Approval of Congress was similar in a July Gallup national poll (17%). Approval ratings are similarly low for the way the US Congress is handling environmental issues (23% adults, 16% likely voters). Approval was similar last July (26% adults, 21% likely voters). Today, majorities across age, education, income, gender, partisan, and racial/ethnic groups and regions of the state disapprove of the way Congress is handling environmental issues in the United States. “Do you approve or disapprove of the way the US Congress is handling…?” All adults Dem Party Rep Approve 20% 9% 29% Its job Disapprove 71 85 66 Don’t know 965 Environmental issues in the United States Approve Disapprove Don’t know 23 12 29 66 82 55 10 5 16 Ind 19% 74 7 19 74 7 Likely voters 14% 83 3 16 76 8 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 16 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 State Leadership on Climate Change When it comes to climate change and energy policy, California’s political leaders and the federal government are going in different directions. Solid majorities of Californians (65% adults, 62% likely voters) favor having the state make its own policies, separate from the federal government, to address the issue of global warming. The proportion holding this view was similar last July (66% adults, 63% likely voters). Since we first asked this question in July 2005, more than half of Californians in annual PPIC Statewide Surveys on environmental issues have favored the state government making its own global warming policies separate from the federal government. Today, solid majorities of Democrats (82%) and independents (61%) are in favor of the state government making its own global warming policies, compared to 29 percent of Republicans. Majorities across age, education, gender, and income groups and regions of the state hold this view. However, public support declines with age (75% under 35, 65% 35 to 54, 55% 55 and older). Also, support for the state government making its own global warming policies is much higher in coastal regions than in inland regions (70% to 54%). Majorities across racial/ethnic groups (71% Asian Americans, 70% Latinos, 67% African Americans, 60% whites) are in favor of the state government making its own global warming policies. “Do you favor or oppose the California state government making its own policies, separate from the federal government, to address the issue of global warming?” All adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind voters Favor 65% 82% 29% 61% 62% Oppose 28 15 67 33 34 Don’t know 73 5 64 In September, Governor Brown will co-chair the Global Climate Action Summit, which will bring leaders from around the world to San Francisco. How do Californians feel about their state playing a prominent role in the climate change policy arena? When asked how important it is that California acts as a leader around the world in efforts to fight climate change, three in four Californians say it is very important (54% adults, 51% likely voters) or somewhat important (24% adults, 22% likely voters). Last July, similar proportions of adults (58% very, 23% somewhat) and likely voters (52% very, 20% somewhat) said that it was important for California to act as a climate change leader. Today, 67 percent of Democrats, 48 percent of independents, and 23 percent of Republicans say it is very important for California to act as a leader in addressing climate change. Strong majorities of Latinos (68%) and African Americans (65%)—compared to fewer whites (47%) and Asian Americans (46%)—say it is very important. Coastal residents (58%) are more likely than inland residents (46%) to say it is very important for California to act as a world leader on climate change. “When it comes to efforts to fight climate change, how important is it to you that California acts as a leader around the world?” All adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind voters Very important Somewhat important Not too important 54% 24 9 67% 28 3 23% 18 20 48% 30 8 51% 22 10 Not important at all Don’t know 12 2 38 13 17 1– 1 –– PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 17 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 Public Perceptions of Global Warming What are some of the public perceptions underlying support for California making its own policies and leading the fight against climate change? First, two in three Californians say that global warming has already begun (67% adults, 69% likely voters). This perception was similarly prevalent a year ago (66% adults, 66% likely voters), and majorities have held this view since we began asking this question in July 2005. Today, overwhelming majorities of Democrats (81%) and independents (74%)—and 36 percent of Republicans—say the effects have already begun. Majorities across regions and age, education, gender, income, and racial/ethnic groups hold this view. In a March Gallup survey, 60 percent of American adults said the effects of global warming have already begun. “Which of the following statements reflects your view of when the effects of global warming will begin to happen…?” Already begun All adults 67% African Americans 57% Race/Ethnicity Asian Americans Latinos 78% 64% Whites 66% Likely voters 69% Within a few years 5 13 1 10 2 3 Within your lifetime Not within lifetime, but will affect future Will never happen 5 10 8 4 12 2 4756 7 11 11 10 6 3 12 8 Don’t know 5 11 5544 Next, eight in ten Californians say that global warming is a very serious (56% adults, 57% likely voters) or somewhat serious (24% adults, 21% likely voters) threat to California’s future economy and quality of life. Last year, similar shares said the threat of global warming was very serious (58% adults, 52% likely voters) or somewhat serious (23% adults, 24% likely voters). Since we began asking this question in July 2005, at least six in ten Californians have seen the threat as very or somewhat serious. Today, majorities of Democrats (76%) and independents (59%)—and 22 percent of Republicans—say global warming is a very serious threat. Coastal residents (60%) are more likely than inland residents (48%) to hold this view. At least half across age, education, gender, income, and racial/ethnic groups say the threat of global warming is very serious. “How serious of a threat is global warming to the economy and quality of life for California’s future—do you think that it is a very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not at all serious of a threat?” Very serious Somewhat serious Not too serious Not at all serious Don’t know All adults 56% 24 9 9 2 African Americans 60% 26 10 1 3 Race/Ethnicity Asian Americans Latinos 57% 64% 24 27 10 4 63 32 Whites 50% 22 12 14 2 Likely voters 57% 21 9 12 1 In addition, six in ten Californians are very concerned (62% adults, 66% likely voters) about more severe wildfires caused by extreme weather as a possible effect of global warming in California. Majorities across regions and all demographic groups are very concerned. Finally, six in ten Californians say global warming is extremely or very important to them personally (62% adults, 60% likely voters), compared to 48 percent of American adults in a June ABC News/Stanford/Resources for the Future poll. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 18 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 Climate Change Policies The California Air Resources Board recently announced that the state has reduced greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels two years in advance of the 2020 goal set by Assembly Bill (AB) 32—a goal that strong majorities of Californians supported in surveys from 2006 to 2016. In 2016, policymakers passed Senate Bill (SB) 32, setting a new goal of further reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. When asked about this goal, two in three Californians (67% adults, 66% likely voters) are in favor—including strong majorities of Democrats (82%) and independents (68%) as well as 41 percent of Republicans. Support was similar last July (72% adults, 66% likely voters). Today, solid majorities across regions are in favor. Across racial/ethnic groups, Latinos (73%) are the most likely to be in favor, followed by Asian Americans (69%), African Americans (66%), and whites (64%). Solid majorities across age, education, gender, and income groups are in favor. The California Energy Commission estimates that 30 percent of California’s electricity in 2017 was derived from renewable sources. In 2015, the state legislature passed SB 350, which among other things established the goal that 50 percent of California’s electricity come from renewable energy sources by 2030. Currently, the legislature is considering SB 100, which would require that 100 percent of the state’s electricity be generated by renewable energy sources by 2045 and would move the 50 percent target date to 2026. Most Californians (72% adults, 67% likely voters)—including at least seven in ten Democrats and independents and nearly half of Republicans—support the 100 percent goal. Support was similar last July (76% adults, 71% likely voters). Two in three or more of Californians across regions and racial/ethnic groups are in favor. Solid majorities across age, education, and income groups favor this goal. “Do you favor or oppose…?” All Party Likely adults Dem Rep Ind voters The state law that requires California to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 40 percent below 1990 levels by the year 2030 Favor Oppose Don't know 67% 22 11 82% 9 9 41% 53 7 68% 23 9 66% 26 7 A proposed state law that Favor 72 81 47 73 67 would require 100 percent of the state’s electricity to come Oppose 21 11 46 20 25 from renewable energy sources by the year 2045 Don't know 7 8 6 7 8 After the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced earlier this year that it would relax future fuel standards, California and other states sued the Trump administration. The EPA also announced that it would reexamine the Clean Air Act waiver that allows California to set its own higher standards. When asked about setting higher emissions standards for automobiles, six in ten Californians (61% adults, 60% likely voters) are in favor. Democrats and independents are far more likely than Republicans to hold this view. Majorities across age, education, income, and racial/ethnic groups are in favor. Support is highest in the San Francisco Bay Area (70%) and lowest in the Inland Empire (48%). Support was similar among adults nationwide (66%) in a March Gallup poll. “How about setting higher emissions standards for automobiles? Do you favor or oppose this proposal?” Favor Oppose Don’t know All adults 61% 32 7 Dem 74% 22 5 Party Rep 34% 61 5 Ind 62% 32 7 Likely voters 60% 35 5 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 19 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 Potential Effects of Climate Change Policies The economic impact of California’s policies to address global warming is often debated, but when Californians are asked if these efforts would lead to more jobs, fewer jobs, or would not impact the number of jobs around the state, a plurality of Californians in our surveys dating back to July 2010 have said it would cause there to be more jobs. Today, about half of Californians (48%) and likely voters (51%) say state action would lead to more jobs for people around the state, and another 23 percent of adults say it would not affect the number of jobs; 18 percent say it would lead to fewer jobs for people around the state. Pluralities across regions anticipate more jobs. About half across racial/ethnic groups expect more jobs, as do pluralities across age, education, and income groups. Democrats (64%) are much more likely than independents (49%) and far more likely than Republicans (29%) to say there would be more jobs. “Do you think that California doing things to reduce global warming in the future would cause there to be more jobs for people around the state, would cause there to be fewer jobs, or wouldn’t affect the number of jobs for people around the state?” More jobs Fewer jobs Wouldn’t affect the number of jobs Don’t know All adults 48% 18 23 11 Central Valley 47% 20 23 10 Inland Empire 41% 19 25 15 Region Los Angeles 50% 17 21 11 Orange/ San Diego 45% 19 28 9 San Francisco Bay Area 51% 15 22 11 Likely voters 51% 19 21 9 While relatively few Californians expect state action on global warming to have a negative impact on jobs, majorities of adults (56%) and likely voters (58%) expect state action to cause gasoline prices to increase. Californians held similar opinions last July (54%) and in July 2016 (59%). Today, at least half across regions expect gasoline prices to increase. Partisans are in agreement that state action to reduce global warming would lead to gasoline price increases, although Democrats (51%) are less likely than independents (62%), and far less likely than Republicans (78%), to hold this view. Majorities across age and income groups say gas prices would increase, as do similar shares of men (59%) and women (54%). “Do you think that California doing things to reduce global warming in the future would cause gasoline prices at the pump around the state to increase, or to decrease, or wouldn’t affect gasoline prices at the pump around the state?” Increase gasoline prices Decrease gasoline prices Wouldn’t affect gasoline prices Don’t know All adults 56% 16 17 11 Central Valley 60% 12 14 13 Inland Empire 51% 14 23 11 Region Los Angeles 62% 16 13 9 Orange/ San Diego 54% 21 18 7 San Francisco Bay Area 50% 16 21 13 Likely voters 58% 12 19 11 When asked if they are willing to pay more for electricity if it were generated by renewable resources, half of Californians (50%) and likely voters (51%) say they are willing. Willingness among all adults was similar last year (51%). Today, there is a wide partisan divide (64% Democrats; 49% independents, 21% Republicans). Willingness also varies across regions, with a high of 60 percent in the San Francisco Bay Area and a low of 37 percent in the Inland Empire. Across racial/ethnic groups, Asian Americans (65%) are the most likely to say they are willing to pay more (49% Latinos, 48% whites, 44% African Americans). PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 20 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 Cap and Trade The share of Californians who have heard about the policy called “cap and trade” remains low, but a record-high share have heard at least a little (12% a lot, 34% a little) and a record-low share have heard nothing at all (53%). Latinos (69%), adults with no college education (67%), those with incomes below $40,000 (66%), and adults under 35 (65%) are the most likely to say they have heard nothing. After hearing a brief description of the state’s cap-and-trade system, half of Californians and likely voters (50% each) are in favor. Support has fluctuated from a high of 56 percent last July to a low of 49 percent in July 2009—the first year we asked about the program. Support is higher among Asian Americans (59%), Californians ages 18 to 34 (59%), college graduates (58%), and those with incomes of $80,000 or more (58%). Democrats (64%) are much more likely than independents (52%) and far more likely than Republicans (28%) to favor the cap-and-trade system. “In the system called ‘cap and trade,’ the California state government issues permits limiting the amount of greenhouse gases companies can put out. Companies that do not use all their permits can sell them to other companies. The idea is that many companies will find ways to put out less greenhouse gases, because that will be cheaper than buying permits. Do you favor or oppose the cap-and-trade system?” Favor All adults 50% Household income Under $40,000 $40,000 to under $80,000 $80,000 or more 44% 56% 58% Race/Ethnicity African Asian Americans Americans Latinos 38% 59% 53% Whites 48% Oppose 35 39 33 30 41 25 31 39 Don’t know 15 17 11 12 20 15 16 13 A portion of cap-and-trade revenues is designated for projects to improve environmental conditions in lower-income and disadvantaged communities. Half of Californians (51%) say it is very important to spend some of the revenues this way. An additional 29 percent say it is somewhat important, while one in five say it is not too important (8%) or not at all important (10%). Democrats (66%) are far more likely than independents (46%) or Republicans (23%) to say it is very important to spend revenues this way. African Americans (66%) and Latinos (65%) are much more likely than Asian Americans (52%) and far more likely than whites (39%) to hold this view. Across regions, residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (55%) and Los Angeles (54%) are the most likely to say it is very important that revenues are spent to improve environmental conditions in lower-income and disadvantaged communities (49% Orange/San Diego, 47% Inland Empire, 45% Central Valley). Women (55%) are more likely than men (45%) to hold this view. Californians ages 18 to 34 (56%) and 35 to 54 (53%) are more likely than those who are 55 and older (43%) to say it is very important to spend revenues this way. “How important to you is it that some of the cap-and-trade revenues are spent on projects to improve environmental conditions in lower-income and disadvantaged communities?” Very important All adults 51% Household income Under $40,000 $40,000 to under $80,000 $80,000 or more 57% 53% 45% Race/Ethnicity African Asian Americans Americans Latinos 66% 52% 65% Whites 39% Somewhat important 29 29 28 30 21 34 24 32 Not too important Not important at all Don’t know 8 10 3 5 7 2 9 9 2 5 5 11 7 14 6 5 3 16 3 3 4 3 23 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 21 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Regional Map JULY 2018 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 22 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Methodology JULY 2018 The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance from survey research associate Alyssa Dykman, project manager for this survey, and associate survey director Dean Bonner and survey research associate Lunna Lopes. The Californians and the Environment survey is supported with funding from the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, the Dirk and Charlene Kabcenell Foundation, the Flora Family Foundation, and the Heising-Simons Foundation. The PPIC Statewide Survey invites input, comments, and suggestions from policy and public opinion experts and from its own advisory committee, but survey methods, questions, and content are determined solely by PPIC’s survey team. Findings in this report are based on a survey of 1,711 California adult residents, including 1,198 interviewed on cell phones and 513 interviewed on landline telephones. Interviews took an average of 19 minutes to complete. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights from July 8–17, 2018. Cell phone interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of cell phone numbers. All cell phone numbers with California area codes were eligible for selection. Once a cell phone user was reached, it was verified that this person was age 18 or older, a resident of California, and in a safe place to continue the survey (e.g., not driving). Cell phone respondents were offered a small reimbursement to help defray the cost of the call. Cell phone interviews were conducted with adults who have cell phone service only and with those who have both cell phone and landline service in the household. Landline interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible for selection. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. For both cell phones and landlines, telephone numbers were called as many as eight times. When no contact with an individual was made, calls to a number were limited to six. Also, to increase our ability to interview Asian American adults, we made up to three additional calls to phone numbers estimated by Survey Sampling International as likely to be associated with Asian American individuals. Live landline and cell phone interviews were conducted by Abt Associates in English and Spanish, according to respondents’ preferences. Accent on Languages, Inc., translated new survey questions into Spanish, with assistance from Renatta DeFever. Abt Associates uses the US Census Bureau’s 2012–2016 American Community Survey’s (ACS) Public Use Microdata Series for California (with regional coding information from the University of Minnesota’s Integrated Public Use Microdata Series for California) to compare certain demographic characteristics of the survey sample—region, age, gender, race/ethnicity, and education—with the characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the ACS figures. To estimate landline and cell phone service in California, Abt Associates used 2016 state-level estimates released by the National Center for Health Statistics—which used data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the ACS. The estimates for California were then compared against landline and cell phone service reported in this survey. We also used voter registration data from the California Secretary of State to compare the party registration of registered voters in our sample to party registration statewide. The landline and cell phone samples were then integrated using a frame integration weight, while sample balancing adjusted for differences across regional, age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, telephone service, and party registration groups. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 23 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 The sampling error, taking design effects from weighting into consideration, is ±3.4 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total unweighted sample of 1,711 adults. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 3.4 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for unweighted subgroups is larger: for the 1,420 registered voters, the sampling error is ±3.6 percent; for the 1,020 likely voters, it is ±4.3 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. We present results for five geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, “Inland Empire” refers to Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, and “Orange/San Diego” refers to Orange and San Diego Counties. Residents of other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes for these less populous areas are not large enough to report separately. Additionally, in several places, we refer to coastal and inland counties. Within coastal counties, the “north and central coast” region refers to the counties along the California coast from San Luis Obispo County northward to Del Norte County, including all the San Francisco Bay Area counties. The “south coast” region includes Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego Counties. All other counties are included in the “inland” region. We also present results for congressional districts currently held by Democrats or Republicans, based on residential zip code and party of the local US House member. We analyze the results of those who live in competitive house districts as determined by the Cook Political Report’s 2018 House Race Ratings updated July 18, 2018. We present results for non-Hispanic whites, who account for 42 percent of the state’s adult population, and also for Latinos, who account for about a third of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest-growing voter groups. We also present results for non-Hispanic Asian Americans, who make up about 15 percent of the state’s adult population, and non-Hispanic African Americans, who comprise about 6 percent. Results for other racial/ethnic groups—such as Native Americans—are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes are not large enough for separate analysis. Results for African American and Asian American likely voters are combined with those of other racial/ethnic groups because sample sizes for African American and Asian American likely voters are too small for separate analysis. We compare the opinions of those who report they are registered Democrats, registered Republicans, and decline-to-state or independent voters; the results for those who say they are registered to vote in other parties are not large enough for separate analysis. We also analyze the responses of likely voters—so designated per their responses to survey questions about voter registration, previous election participation, intentions to vote this year, attention to election news, and current interest in politics. The percentages presented in the report tables and in the questionnaire may not add to 100 due to rounding. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey results to those in our earlier surveys and to those in national surveys by Gallup and ABC News/Stanford/Resources for the Future. Additional details about our methodology can be found at www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads /SurveyMethodology.pdf and are available upon request through surveys@ppic.org. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 24 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Questionnaire and Results JULY 2018 CALIFORNIANS AND THE ENVIRONMENT July 8–17, 2018 1,711 California Adult Residents: English, Spanish MARGIN OF ERROR ±3.4% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100 DUE TO ROUNDING First, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California? 52% 29 19 approve disapprove don’t know Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Brown is handling environmental issues in California? 48% 31 21 approve disapprove don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job? 46% 38 15 approve disapprove don’t know Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling environmental issues in California? 43% 41 16 approve disapprove don’t know Next, what do you think is the most important environmental issue facing California today? [code, don’t read] 19% 16 12 8 6 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 13 7 water supply, drought, reservoirs air pollution, vehicle emissions, smog global warming, climate change, greenhouse gases water pollution of ocean, rivers, lakes, streams, beach pollution loss of forests, forest fires, wildfires landfills, garbage, sewage, waste, recycling pollution in general energy, fossil fuels, solar, nuclear, wind, alternative too much government regulation, politicians, environmentalists oil drilling, offshore oil drilling, production population growth, overpopulation traffic, congestion, transportation, transit other (specify) don’t know Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote in California? 67% yes [ask q6a] 33 no [skip to q7b] PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 25 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY 6a. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or are you registered as a decline-to-state or independent voter? 45% 26 5 25 Democrat [ask q7] Republican [skip to q7a] another party (specify) [skip to q8] independent [skip to q7b] Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 59% 39 3 strong not very strong don’t know [skip to q8] 7a. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 62% 33 5 strong not very strong don’t know [skip to q8] 7b. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party? 20% 40 29 11 Republican Party Democratic Party neither (volunteered) don’t know [likely voters only] If the November 6 election for governor were being held today, would you vote for [rotate] (1) John Cox, a Republican, [or] (2) Gavin Newsom, a Democrat? 55% 31 5 9 Gavin Newsom, a Democrat John Cox, a Republican neither/would not vote for governor (volunteered) don’t know JULY 2018 [[likely voters only] How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2018 governor’s election—very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 17% 42 28 13 – very closely fairly closely not too closely not at all closely don’t know [likely voters only] In thinking about the California governor’s election in November, how important to you are the candidates’ positions on the environment in determining your vote—very important, somewhat important, or not too important? 56% 31 13 1 very important somewhat important not too important don’t know [likely voters only] If the November 6 election for the US Senate were being held today, would you vote for [rotate] (1) Kevin de León, a Democrat, [or] (2) Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat? 46% 24 20 9 Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat Kevin de León, a Democrat neither/would not vote for senate (volunteered) don’t know [likely voters only] Which of the following is more important to you in candidates for statewide office, such as governor or US senator, when it comes to environmental issues—rotate] (1) that they work with the Trump Administration [or] (2) that they push back against the Trump Administration? 39% 55 3 3 work with the Trump Administration push back against the Trump Administration both (volunteered) don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 26 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Next, would you say that the supply of water is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem in your part of California? 48% 24 25 2 big problem somewhat of a problem not much of a problem don’t know [likely voters only] The November 6 ballot has a state bond measure of approximately $8.9 billion to pay for various water infrastructure projects. If the election were being held today, would you vote yes or no? 58% 25 17 yes no don’t know We are interested in the part of California that you live in. Would you say that air pollution is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem in your part of California? 29% 37 33 1 big problem somewhat of a problem not a problem don’t know Do you think that air pollution is a more serious health threat in lower-income areas than other areas in your part of California, or not? 56% 38 6 yes no don’t know JULY 2018 On another topic, which of the following statements reflects your view of when the effects of global warming will begin to happen—[rotate order] (1) they have already begun to happen; (2) they will start happening within a few years; (3) they will start happening within your lifetime; (4) they will not happen within your lifetime, but they will affect future generations; [or] (5) they will never happen? 67% 5 5 10 8 5 already begun within a few years within your lifetime not within lifetime, but will affect future generations will never happen don’t know How serious of a threat is global warming to the economy and quality of life for California’s future—do you think that it is a very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not at all serious of a threat? 56% 24 9 9 2 very serious somewhat serious not too serious not at all serious don’t know Thinking about the possible impact of global warming in California, how concerned are you about more severe wildfires because of extreme weather? Are you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not at all concerned about that as an impact? 62% 23 7 7 1 very concerned somewhat concerned not too concerned not at all concerned don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 27 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY How important is the issue of global warming to you personally—extremely important, very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 28% 34 20 7 10 1 extremely important very important somewhat important not too important not at all important don’t know Next, to address global warming, do you favor or oppose the state law that requires California to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 40 percent below 1990 levels by the year 2030? 67% 22 11 favor oppose don’t know Do you favor or oppose a proposed state law that would require 100 percent of the state’s electricity to come from renewable energy sources by the year 2045? 72% 21 7 favor oppose don’t know Do you favor or oppose the California state government making its own policies, separate from the federal government, to address the issue of global warming? 65% 28 7 favor oppose don’t know When it comes to efforts to fight climate change, how important is it to you that California acts as a leader around the world—very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all? 54% 24 9 12 1 very important somewhat important not too important not important at all don’t know JULY 2018 Do you think that California doing things to reduce global warming in the future would cause there to be more jobs for people around the state, would cause there to be fewer jobs, or wouldn’t affect the number of jobs for people around the state? 48% 18 23 11 more jobs fewer jobs wouldn’t affect the number of jobs don’t know Do you think that California doing things to reduce global warming in the future would cause gasoline prices at the pump around the state to increase, or to decrease, or wouldn’t affect gasoline prices at the pump around the state? 56% 16 17 11 increase gasoline prices decrease gasoline prices wouldn’t affect gasoline prices don’t know In order to help reduce global warming, would you be willing or not willing to pay more for electricity if it were generated by renewable sources like solar or wind energy? 50% 44 6 willing not willing don’t know How much, if anything, have you heard about the state government policy called “cap and trade” that sets limits on greenhouse gas emissions? Have you heard a lot, a little, or nothing at all? 12% 34 53 – a lot a little nothing at all don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 28 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY In the system called “cap and trade,” the California state government issues permits limiting the amount of greenhouse gases companies can put out. Companies that do not use all their permits can sell them to other companies. The idea is that many companies will find ways to put out less greenhouse gases, because that will be cheaper than buying permits. Do you favor or oppose the cap-and-trade system? 50% 35 15 favor oppose don’t know Next, how important to you is it that some of the cap-and-trade revenues are spent on projects to improve environmental conditions in lower-income and disadvantaged communities—very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all? 51% 29 8 10 3 very important somewhat important not too important not important at all don’t know Next, I am interested in your views about ocean and marine life along the California coast. Thinking about the overall health and quality of the ocean along the California coast today—would you rate them as excellent, good, fair, or poor? 9% 30 38 19 4 excellent good fair poor don’t know In the past 10 years, do you think the population of most fish off of the California coast have increased, decreased, or stayed about the same? 12% 53 22 13 increased decreased stayed the same don’t know JULY 2018 How important is the condition of the ocean and beaches to the economy and quality of life for California’s future? Is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all? 74% 21 2 2 1 very important somewhat important not too important not important at all don’t know Next, thinking about the possible impact of global warming in California, [rotate questions 34 and 35] How concerned are you about rising sea levels having an impact on flooding and beach erosion? Are you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not at all concerned? 45% 29 14 11 1 very concerned somewhat concerned not too concerned not at all concerned don’t know How concerned are you about ocean warming having an impact on marine and coastal life? Are you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not at all concerned? 50% 28 13 9 1 very concerned somewhat concerned not too concerned not at all concerned don’t know Please say if you favor or oppose the following proposals. [rotate questions 36 to 38] How about allowing more oil drilling off the California coast? 27% 67 6 favor oppose don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 29 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY How about maintaining the rules and boundaries of national marine sanctuaries and California’s Marine Protected Areas— or MPAs—to protect fish, wildlife, and their habitat off the California coast? 88% 8 4 favor oppose don’t know How about setting higher emissions standards for automobiles? 61% 32 7 favor oppose don’t know On another topic, Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president? 29% 66 5 approve disapprove don’t know Do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Trump is handling environmental issues in the United States? 24% 67 8 approve disapprove don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the US Congress is handling its job? 20% 71 9 approve disapprove don’t know Do you approve or disapprove of the way the US Congress is handling environmental issues in the United States? 23% 66 10 approve disapprove don’t know JULY 2018 Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 14% 21 27 20 14 3 very liberal somewhat liberal middle-of-the-road somewhat conservative very conservative don’t know Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics? 24% 36 29 11 1 great deal fair amount only a little none don’t know [d1-d16 demographic questions] PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 30 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect Angela Glover Blackwell President and CEO PolicyLink Mollyann Brodie Senior Vice President Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Bill Lane Center for the American West Stanford University Jon Cohen Vice President of Survey Research SurveyMonkey Joshua J. Dyck Co-Director Center for Public Opinion University of Massachusetts, Lowell Lisa García Bedolla Director Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley Russell Hancock President and CEO Joint Venture Silicon Valley Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Professor Sol Price School of Public Policy University of Southern California Robert Lapsley President California Business Roundtable Carol S. Larson President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Sonja Petek Fiscal and Policy Analyst California Legislative Analyst’s Office Lisa Pitney Vice President of Government Relations The Walt Disney Company Robert K. Ross, MD President and CEO The California Endowment Most Reverend Jaime Soto Bishop of Sacramento Roman Catholic Diocese of Sacramento Carol Whiteside Principal California Strategies The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PPIC BOARD OF DIRECTORS Mas Masumoto, Chair Author and Farmer Mark Baldassare President and CEO Public Policy Institute of California Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect María Blanco Executive Director University of California Immigrant Legal Services Center Louise Henry Bryson Chair Emerita, Board of Trustees J. Paul Getty Trust A. Marisa Chun Partner McDermott Will & Emery LLP Chet Hewitt President and CEO Sierra Health Foundation Phil Isenberg Former Chair Delta Stewardship Council Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Steven A. Merksamer Senior Partner Nielsen, Merksamer, Parrinello, Gross & Leoni, LLP Leon E. Panetta Chairman The Panetta Institute for Public Policy Gerald L. Parsky Chairman Aurora Capital Group Kim Polese Chairman ClearStreet, Inc. Gaddi H. Vasquez Senior Vice President, Government Affairs Edison International Southern California Edison Public Policy Institute of California 500 Washington Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, CA 94111 T: 415.291.4400 F: 415.291.4401 PPIC.ORG PPIC Sacramento Center Senator Office Building 1121 L Street, Suite 801 Sacramento, CA 95814 T: 916.440.1120 F: 916.440.1121" } ["___content":protected]=> string(183) "

PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and the Environment, July 2018

" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(130) "https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-the-environment-july-2018/ppic-statewide-survey-july-2018/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(15702) ["ID"]=> int(15702) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "4" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2018-07-25 20:39:06" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(15625) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(66) "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and the Environment, July 2018" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(31) "ppic-statewide-survey-july-2018" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(35) "ppic-statewide-survey-july-2018.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "742044" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(85942) "PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 Californians & the Environment Mark Baldassare Dean Bonner Alyssa Dykman Lunna Lopes CONTENTS Press Release 2018 Election and Environmental Issues Public Perceptions and Policy Preferences Regional Map Methodology Questionnaire and Results 3 6 14 22 23 25 Supported with funding from the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, the Dirk and Charlene Kabcenell Foundation, the Flora Family Foundation, and the Heising-Simons Foundation The PPIC Statewide Survey provides a voice for the public and likely voters— informing policymakers, encouraging discussion, and raising awareness on critical issues of the day. © 2018 Public Policy Institute of California The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. PPIC is a public charity. It does not take or support positions on any ballot measures or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source. Research publications reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or of the staff, officers, advisory councils, or board of directors of the Public Policy Institute of California. PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY News Release JULY 2018 CONTACT Abby Cook 415-291-4436 EMBARGOED: Do not publish or broadcast until 9:00 p.m. PDT on Wednesday, July 25, 2018. Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: www.ppic.org/press-release/ PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THE ENVIRONMENT Most Say Environmental Issues Are Key in Governor’s Race NEWSOM, FEINSTEIN MAINTAIN STRONG LEADS—MAJORITY SUPPORT WATER BOND SAN FRANCISCO, July 25, 2018—Nearly all California likely voters say the candidates’ positions on the environment are important in determining their vote in the governor’s race, according to a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC). Democrat Gavin Newsom leads Republican John Cox in that race by 24 points. A majority of likely voters (56%) say the candidates’ environmental positions are very important in determining their votes—the largest share to express this view since PPIC first asked likely voters the question in 2006 (44%). Another third of likely voters (31%) say candidate positions on the environment are somewhat important. Across party lines, 67 percent of Democratic likely voters say the candidates’ environmental stances are very important; about half of independents (54%) and a third of Republicans (33%) hold this view. Newsom, the lieutenant governor, leads businessman Cox 55 percent to 31 percent among likely voters today, with 9 percent undecided. Preferences follow party lines, with 86 percent of Democratic likely voters favoring Newsom and 84 percent of Republicans favoring Cox. Newsom leads among independents, 41 percent to 33 percent. A solid majority of Latino likely voters (64%) and about half of white likely voters (49%) prefer Newsom. (Sample sizes for Asian American and African American likely voters are too small for separate analysis.) Underscoring Californians’ views about the importance of environmental issues, adults in the state are much more likely than those nationwide to say that global warming is extremely or very important to them personally: 62 percent of California adults express this view, compared to 48 percent of American adults in a June ABC News/Stanford/Resources for the Future poll. A majority of the state’s likely voters (57%) say global warming poses a very serious threat to the economy and quality of life in California, and a strong majority (69%) say that the effects of global warming have already begun. A large majority of likely voters (66%) say they are very concerned that extreme weather—when thinking about the possible effect of global warming in California—will result in more severe wildfires. Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO, summed up: “Many Californians are concerned about the personal impact of global warming in the wake of a prolonged drought and in the face of fears that extreme weather may result in more severe wildfires.” Feinstein Leads de León by Nearly Two to One In her bid for a fifth full term as US senator, Dianne Feinstein leads fellow Democrat and state senator Kevin de León 46 percent to 24 percent among likely voters, with 9 percent undecided. She has PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 3 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 majority support among Democratic likely voters (66%) and leads de León among independents (38% to 24%). With no Republican candidates to choose from, 47 percent of Republican likely voters and 24 percent of independents say they would not vote in this race. Feinstein leads by at least 20 points among likely voters across education and racial/ethnic groups, as well as among women, those age 55 and older, and residents in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area. When the likely voters who volunteer that they would not vote in this race are excluded, Feinstein has a 28-point lead (58% to 30%). The survey asks if it is more important that candidates for statewide office—such as governor or US senator—work with the Trump administration on environmental issues or push back. Most likely voters (55%) prefer that candidates push back, while 39 percent prefer that candidates work with the administration. Among likely voters who prefer candidates to push back against the Trump administration, 62 percent favor Feinstein and 25 percent favor de León. Half Approve of Brown, A Third Approve of Trump Just over half of California likely voters approve of the way Jerry Brown is doing his job as governor (54%) and the way he is handling environmental issues (53%). The legislature has ratings of 46 percent overall and 43 percent on environmental issues. In contrast to the ratings likely voters give to state leaders, just 34 percent approve of the way Donald Trump is doing his job as president and 27 percent approve of how he is handling environmental issues. Congress’s approval ratings are even lower—14 percent overall and 16 percent on environmental issues. At a time when state and federal leaders are moving in different directions on climate change and energy issues, 62 percent of California likely voters say they favor the state government making its own policies—separate from the federal government—to address global warming. Majorities of adults across regions and across age, education, gender, and income groups hold this view. Across parties, solid majorities of Californians registered as Democrats (82%) and independents (61%) concur, while just 29 percent of registered Republicans favor the state making its own policies. Governor Brown is preparing to bring leaders from around the world to San Francisco for a climate change summit in September. Asked about the importance of the state acting as a leader in efforts to fight climate change, 51 percent of likely voters say it is very important (22% somewhat important). Majority Favor Raising Fuel Emissions Standards for Autos The federal Environmental Protection Agency has moved to relax emissions standards for automobiles, prompting a lawsuit by California and other states. California currently has a waiver allowing it to set its own higher standards. Asked about setting higher emissions standards for automobiles, 60 percent of likely voters say yes. Likely voters also support goals to limit greenhouse gas emissions in other areas. A solid majority (66%) favor the state law requiring reduction of emissions to 40 percent below 1990 levels by the year 2030. Strong majorities of registered Democrats (82%) and independents (68%) express this view, as do 41 percent of Republicans. A proposed law would require all of the state’s electricity to come from renewable energy sources by the year 2045, with a goal of 50 percent by 2026. What do Californians think of this idea? A solid majority of likely voters (67%) favor it. Across parties, 81 percent of registered Democrats, 73 percent of independents, and 47 percent of Republicans are in favor. Most Say Climate Change Policies Will Raise Gas Prices How do Californians view the economic impact of the state’s efforts to address global warming? Half of likely voters (51%) say these actions will result in more jobs for state residents, while 19 percent say the result will be fewer jobs (21% no effect). However, a majority of likely voters (58%) say action to reduce PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 4 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 global warming will increase gasoline prices (12% decrease gas prices, 19% no effect). Half of likely voters (51%) say they are willing to pay more for electricity if it is generated by renewable resources. “Most Californians have factored in higher gas prices, and say they are willing to pay higher electricity prices,” Baldassare said. “They expect more jobs as the byproducts of the state’s efforts to reduce global warming.” When likely voters are read a brief description of the state’s cap-and-trade policy, half (50%) say they favor the system, which allows companies that don’t emit their allotted share of greenhouse gases to sell their state-issued permits to other companies to use. Water Seen as Most Important Environmental Issue Drought and water supply are named most frequently when likely voters are asked about the most important environmental issue facing the state today (24%). The proportion of likely voters expressing this view has dropped sharply in the last two years (43% in July 2016). A large majority of likely voters say the supply of water is a big problem (60%) or at least somewhat of a problem (25%) in their part of California. Across regions, Orange/San Diego residents (55%) are the most likely to say the water supply is a big problem where they live, while San Francisco Bay Area residents (43%) are the least likely to say so. In November, Californians will vote on an $8.9 billion bond measure, Proposition 3, to fund water infrastructure projects. A majority of likely voters (58%) plan to vote yes and a quarter (25%) no (17% undecided). “The drought and water shortages are still on Californians’ minds,” Baldassare said. “They seem willing to support a water bond on the November ballot after passing a multibillion-dollar water bond measure in June.” The second most frequently named issue among likely voters is air pollution (15%). Two-thirds say air pollution is a problem in their part of the state (29% big problem, 37% somewhat of a problem). Residents in Los Angeles (40%) are the most likely to say it is a big problem and those in Orange/ San Diego are the least likely (17%). About half of likely voters (53%) say air pollution is a more serious health threat in lower-income areas than elsewhere in their part of the state. Majority Oppose More Coastal Drilling Earlier this year, the federal government announced plans to allow new offshore oil drilling in areas along the nation’s coasts. Today, two-thirds of likely voters (67%) oppose more oil drilling off the California coast. Among all adults, majorities of both coastal (71%) and inland (59%) residents oppose more drilling. Across parties, an overwhelming majority of registered Democrats (82%) and a strong majority of independents (66%) are opposed, while a majority of Republicans (54%) are in favor. The Trump administration’s efforts to open up more of the nation’s coasts to offshore drilling could alter national marine sanctuaries and affect California’s marine protected areas. However, 88 percent of likely voters support maintaining the rules and boundaries of national sanctuaries and state marine protected areas to protect fish, wildlife, and their habitat. Asked how concerned they are about the impact of ocean warming on marine and coastal life, 77 percent of likely voters say they are very concerned or somewhat concerned. A majority of likely voters (56%) say the population of most fish off of the California coast has decreased. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 5 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 2018 Election and Environmental Issues Key Findings  A majority of likely voters say environmental positions are very important in the governor’s race, in which Gavin Newsom leads John Cox by 24 points. (page 7)  In US Senate race, likely voters support incumbent Dianne Feinstein over Kevin de León by 22 points. One in five volunteer that they would not vote in this race. A majority of likely voters say that it is more important to them that candidates for statewide office push back rather than work with the Trump administration when it comes to environmental issues. (page 8)  Fifty-eight percent of likely voters would vote yes on the $8.9 billion water bond on the November ballot. Californians and likely voters are most likely to name water supply and drought as the most important environmental issue. Half of adults say water supply is a big problem in their part of the state. (page 9)  Twenty-nine percent of adults say air pollution is a big problem in their part of the state, with wide differences across regions. A majority say air pollution is a more serious threat in lower-income areas. (page 10)  Four in ten adults rate the overall health and quality of the ocean along the coast as excellent or good. Half say the population of most fish off the California coast has decreased in the past 10 years. (page 11)  More than seven in ten are concerned about the impact of warming oceans on marine life and the impact of rising sea levels on the coast. (page 12)  Sixty-seven percent of adults oppose more oil drilling off the coast. An overwhelming majority support maintaining the rules and boundaries of national marine sanctuaries and marine protected areas. (page 13) PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Percent likely voters Percent likely voters Importance of gubernatorial candidates' positions on the environment 100 % saying very important 80 60 56 44 41 40 40 20 0 Jul-06 Jul-10 Jul-14 Support for $8.9 billion state water bond 100 Jul-18 Percent likely voters 80 65 60 61 60 52 54 40 20 0 Central Valley Inland Empire Los Orange/San San Angeles Diego Francisco Bay Area Most important environmental issue facing California 100 80 60 40 24 20 15 0 Water supply and drought Air pollution 12 Global warming 8 Water Pollution Californians and the Environment 6 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 Gubernatorial Election On the heels of the highest reported turnout rate in a midterm primary election since 1998, six in ten likely voters are following news about candidates very (17%) or fairly (42%) closely. Attention to news today is similar to July 2014 (11% very, 42% fairly) and lower than it was in July 2010 (22% very, 48% fairly)—when California had partisan primaries and an open gubernatorial election featuring Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman. With the gubernatorial election less than four months away—and after a primary race in which Democrat Gavin Newsom led all candidates with 34 percent of the vote—Newsom now leads Republican John Cox by a 24-point margin (55% to 31%) among likely voters. One in ten likely voters are undecided. Gubernatorial preferences follow party lines, with each candidate receiving support from at least eight in ten in their respective parties. Newsom leads Cox by 8 points among independents. A solid majority of Latino likely voters (64%) and about half of white likely voters (49%) prefer Newsom. (Sample sizes for Asian American and African American likely voters are too small for separate analysis.) Cox has majority support among likely voters in the Inland Empire (55%), while Newsom leads in Los Angeles (68%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (61%). A plurality of likely voters in Orange/San Diego prefer Newsom (47%), while those in the Central Valley are divided (45% Newsom, 44% Cox). “If the November 6 election for governor were being held today, would you vote for John Cox, a Republican, or Gavin Newsom, a Democrat?” Likely voters only All likely voters Gavin Newsom, a Democrat 55% Dem 86% Party Rep 10% Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups 41% 64% 49% 71% John Cox, a Republican Would not vote for governor (volunteered) Don’t know 31 5 9 3 84 33 24 4 1 12 3 7 5 15 9 39 4 8 15 6 8 When asked how important the candidates’ positions on the environment are in determining their vote, nearly all likely voters say they are very (56%) or somewhat (31%) important. The share of likely voters saying very important is the highest it has been since PPIC began asking likely voters this question in 2006. Today, two in three Democratic likely voters (67%) say these positions are very important, compared to half of independents (54%) and a third of Republicans (33%). Of those supporting Newsom for governor, 70 percent say the candidates’ positions on the environment are very important; 25 percent of Cox supporters hold this view. Likely voters in the San Francisco Bay Area (62%) are the most likely to say the candidates’ environmental positions are very important, followed by those in Los Angeles (55%), the Inland Empire (52%), Orange/San Diego (51%), and the Central Valley (51%). The share of likely voters saying the candidates’ positions on the environment are very important (56%) is slightly lower than the share that said positions on K–12 public education were very important (64%) in our April survey. “In thinking about the California governor’s election in November, how important to you are the candidates’ positions on the environment in determining your vote?” Likely voters only Very important Somewhat important Not too important Don’t know All likely voters 56% 31 13 1 Dem 67% 29 3 1 Party Rep 33% 39 27 1 Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups 54% 59% 52% 62% 33 30 32 31 13 11 15 7 –– 1 – PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 7 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 US Senate Election Senator Dianne Feinstein, who is seeking her fifth full term as US senator, leads fellow Democrat and state senator Kevin de León by almost a two-to-one margin (46% to 24%) among likely voters. Feinstein received 44 percent of the vote in the June primary. Feinstein has majority support among Democrats (66%) and leads de León among independents (38% to 24%). Notably, with no Republicans to choose from, 47 percent of Republicans and 24 percent of independents say they would not vote in this race. Feinstein leads by at least 20 points among likely voters across education and racial/ethnic groups, women, those age 55 and older, and those in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area. Likely voters who support Newsom favor Feinstein over de León (64% to 25%); 49 percent of Cox supporters say they would not vote in this race. When we exclude those who volunteer they would not vote, Feinstein has a 28 point lead over de León (58% to 30%). “If the November 6 election for the US Senate were being held today, would you vote for Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat, or Kevin de León, a Democrat?” Likely voters only Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat All likely voters 46% Dem 66% Party Rep 22% Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups 38% 52% 44% 52% Kevin de León, a Democrat 24 22 25 24 27 Would not vote for US senator (volunteered) 20 3 47 24 10 Don’t know 9 9 5 15 10 22 25 9 31 8 9 When asked whether it is more important that candidates for statewide office—such as governor or US senator—work with or push back against the Trump administration on environmental issues, a majority of likely voters (55%) prefer candidates to push back, while four in ten (39%) prefer that they work with the administration. There is a wide partisan divide, and half of independents prefer pushing back against the Trump administration. Latinos are more likely to prefer pushing back, while whites are divided. Half in the Central Valley (51%) and Orange/San Diego (51%) say work with, while majorities in the San Francisco Bay Area (64%) and Los Angeles (60%) say push back; likely voters in the Inland Empire are divided (47% push back, 46% work with). Of those who say candidates should push back, 62 percent would vote for Dianne Feinstein and 25 percent would vote for Kevin de León. Among likely voters who say work with the Trump administration, 42 percent would not vote in the US senate race. “Which of the following is more important to you in candidates for statewide office, such as governor or US senator, when it comes to environmental issues—that they work with the Trump administration or that they push back against the Trump administration?” Likely voters only Work with the Trump administration Push back against the Trump administration Both (volunteered) All likely voters 39% 55 3 Dem 12% 81 3 Party Rep 84% 13 2 Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups 40% 30% 45% 30% 51 68 49 61 41 3 3 Don’t know 3 41 5 1 2 6 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 8 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 State Bond Measure and Water Supply Californians will go to the polls in November to vote on an $8.9 billion bond measure to fund water infrastructure projects (Proposition 3) such as water supply and quality, watershed, and fisheries improvements. This follows the passage of June’s Proposition 68—a $4.1 billion bond measure to fund parks, natural resources protection, climate adaptation, water, and flood protection—which was supported by 58 percent of voters. When asked about the $8.9 billion bond measure, 58 percent of likely voters would vote yes, while 25 percent would vote no. Democratic likely voters (72%) are far more likely than independents (48%) and Republicans (43%) to express support for this bond. Support is much higher among Latino likely voters (76%) than whites (53%) and those in other racial/ethnic groups (57%). Support is highest in Orange/San Diego (65%), followed by Los Angeles (61%), the Inland Empire (60%), the San Francisco Bay Area (54%), and the Central Valley (52%). Among likely voters who would vote yes on this bond measure, 64 percent say the supply of water is a big problem in their part of the state. “The November 6 ballot has a state bond measure of approximately $8.9 billion to pay for various water infrastructure projects. If the election were being held today, would you vote yes or no?” Likely voters only Yes All likely voters 58% Dem 72% Party Rep 43% Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups 48% 76% 53% 57% No 25 16 38 25 17 28 27 Don’t know 17 12 19 26 8 19 16 Although the historic California drought officially ended over a year ago, Californians (19% adults, 24% likely voters) are most likely to name drought and water supply as the most important environmental issue facing the state today. However, the proportion of Californians naming drought and water supply has decreased sharply since July 2016, when 38 percent of adults and 43 percent of likely voters cited it as the most important environmental issue. Today, 8 percent of Californians and likely voters name water pollution as the most important environmental issue facing the state. When asked specifically about the supply of water in their part of the state, 48 percent of Californians and 60 percent of likely voters say it is a big problem. The share of Californians saying water supply is a big problem is higher today than in March (45% adults, 53% likely voters) and last July (37% adults, 42% likely voters). Currently, Orange/San Diego residents (55%) are the most likely to say the water supply is a big problem in their region, while residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (43%) are the least likely to say this. Majorities of Californians across political parties say the supply of water is a big problem. Across racial/ethnic groups, whites (59%) are much more likely than African Americans (40%), Latinos (38%), and Asian Americans (37%) to say the supply of water is a big problem. “Would you say that the supply of water is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem in your part of California?” All adults Big problem Somewhat of a problem Not much of a problem Don’t know 48% 24 25 2 Central Valley 49% 22 26 2 Inland Empire 48% 20 28 4 Region Los Angeles 44% 23 30 3 Orange/ San Diego 55% 25 18 2 San Francisco Bay Area 43% 30 26 1 Likely voters 60% 25 14 1 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 9 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 Air Pollution Sixteen percent of adults and 15 percent of likely voters name air pollution as the most important environmental issue facing California today. When asked about air pollution in their part of California, two in three Californians and likely voters say it is a problem (29% big problem, 37% somewhat of a problem). A third say it is not a problem in their part of California. The proportion of Californians saying that air pollution is a big problem was similar last July (24% adults, 21% likely voters). Today, residents in Los Angeles (40%) and the Central Valley (34%) are the most likely to say that air pollution is a big problem. Democrats (33%) and independents (31%) are somewhat more likely than Republicans (23%) to say that air pollution is a big problem. Notably, Latinos and African Americans (37% each) are more likely than Asian Americans (27%) and whites (22%) to hold this view. Across income groups, Californians with annual household incomes under $80,000 are more likely than those with higher incomes to say air pollution is a big problem in their part of the state. “Would you say that air pollution is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem in your part of California?” All adults Big problem Somewhat of a problem Not a problem Don’t know 29% 37 33 1 Central Valley 34% 36 27 3 Inland Empire 28% 44 28 – Region Los Angeles 40% 37 22 – Orange/ San Diego 17% 37 44 1 San Francisco Bay Area 24% 39 36 1 Likely voters 29% 37 33 – A majority of California adults (56%) and likely voters (53%) think that air pollution in their part of the state is a more serious health threat in lower-income areas than elsewhere. Findings were similar last July (55% adults, 45% likely voters). Today, Democrats (67%) and independents (54%) are far more likely than Republicans (30%) to say that air pollution is a more serious threat in lower-income areas. The likelihood of saying air pollution is a greater health threat in lower-income areas decreases as income rises. Latinos and African Americans are much more likely than Asian Americans and far more likely than whites to hold this view. Renters (62%) are more likely than homeowners (48%) and Californians under age 55 (60%) are more likely than those age 55 and over (47%) to think air pollution is a greater threat in lower-income areas. Regionally, residents in Los Angeles (66%) are the most likely to say air pollution is a more serious threat in lower-income areas (56% San Francisco Bay Area, 55% Orange/San Diego, 53% Inland Empire, 45% Central Valley). Notably, 60 percent of coastal residents hold this view, whereas inland residents are divided (47% more serious health threat in lower-income areas, 47% not a more serious threat). “Do you think that air pollution is a more serious health threat in lower-income areas than other areas in your part of California, or not?” Yes No Don’t know All adults 56% 38 6 Household income Under $40,000 $40,000 to under $80,000 $80,000 or more 64% 56% 48% 32 41 46 437 Race/Ethnicity African Asian Americans Americans Latinos 76% 23 2 58% 36 6 71% 25 4 Whites 42% 51 7 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 10 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 Ocean and Coastal Ratings Most Californians value the state’s coast—74 percent say the condition of the ocean and beaches is very important to the economy and quality of life in California’s future. Findings were similar last July (73% very important). More than seven in ten adults across all political parties and across all age, income, and education groups say these conditions are very important. Across regions, more than two in three adults say these conditions are very important, with residents in Los Angeles most likely to express this view (80%). Strong majorities of both coastal (76%) and inland (70%) residents say the condition of the ocean and beaches is very important to the state’s future. While a strong majority of Californians view the state’s ocean and beaches as very important to the state’s economy and quality of life, only four in ten give a positive rating (9% excellent, 30% good) to the overall health and quality of the ocean along the state’s coast. A majority of Californians say the overall health and quality of the ocean along the state’s coast is fair (38%) or poor (19%). In our February 2006 survey, Californians gave similar ratings (4% excellent, 36% good, 42% fair, 13% poor). Residents along the north and central coast (44% excellent or good) are slightly more likely than south coast residents (37%) to provide positive ratings. At least half of residents across age, education, income, and racial/ethnic groups rate overall ocean quality along the coast as fair or poor. “Thinking about the overall health and quality of the ocean along the California coast today—would you rate them as excellent, good, fair, or poor?” Excellent All adults 9% Region* North and central coast* South coast* 13% 9% Inland 5% African Americans 2% Race/Ethnicity Asian Americans Latinos 9% 12% Whites 7% Good 30 31 28 33 25 20 34 33 Fair 38 36 40 37 44 42 35 39 Poor 19 15 21 20 25 24 15 18 Don’t know 4 5 364 5 43 * Here and in the rest of the report, “North and central coast” refers to the coastal counties northward from San Luis Obispo County to Del Norte County, including all of the San Francisco Bay Area counties. “South coast” includes coastal counties southward from Santa Barbara County. A majority of Californians (53%) say that in the past 10 years, the population of most fish off the California coast has decreased. Democrats (59%) and independents (57%) are more likely than Republicans (46%) to say this. Majorities across regions—with the exception of Los Angeles (49%)—say that the population of fish has decreased in the last 10 years. Across racial/ethnic groups, whites are the most likely to say this while African Americans are the least likely. “In the past 10 years, do you think the population of most fish off of the California coast have increased, decreased, or stayed about the same?” Increased All adults 12% North and central coast 13% Region South coast 13% Inland 10% African Americans 25% Race/Ethnicity Asian Americans Latinos 10% 15% Whites 9% Decreased 53 52 52 56 41 52 51 58 Stayed about the same 22 20 23 22 26 19 22 21 Don’t know 13 16 13 12 9 19 12 12 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 11 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 Ocean and Coastal Concerns Half of Californians (50%) are very concerned about ocean warming having an impact on marine and coastal life. A further 28 percent are somewhat concerned about this, while 22 percent are not too or not at all concerned. A slight majority of coastal residents (52%) are very concerned about this issue, while slightly fewer inland residents (44%) say the same. Across racial/ethnic groups, African Americans are the most likely to say they are very concerned while Latinos are the least likely. Today, Democrats (65%) and independents (57%) are much more likely than Republicans (27%) to say they are very concerned about this issue. Notably, college graduates are much more likely than those with only a high school education to say they are very concerned (58% to 41%). “How concerned are you about ocean warming having an impact on marine and coastal life?” Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not too concerned Not at all concerned Don’t know All adults 50% 28 13 9 1 North and central coast 54% Region South coast 51% 28 28 11 11 69 –1 Inland 44% 28 15 12 1 African Americans 56% Race/Ethnicity Asian Americans Latinos 52% 47% Whites 49% 26 30 33 24 13 10 12 14 3 7 6 12 2 – 11 When asked about rising sea levels, 45 percent of adults say they are very concerned about flooding and beach erosion; 29 percent are somewhat concerned. A quarter of adults say they are not too (14%) or not at all (11%) concerned. Notably, residents in the north and central coast (51%) and in the south coast (47%) are more likely than inland residents (37%) to say they are very concerned about flooding and beach erosion. Across racial/ethnic groups, Latinos are the most likely to be very concerned about this issue while whites are the least likely. As with concerns about ocean warming, Democrats (56%) and independents (44%) are far more likely than Republicans (22%) to be very concerned about this issue. Regionally, San Francisco Bay Area residents (51%) are the most likely to be very concerned and those in the Inland Empire (31%) are the least likely, with other regions falling in between (40% Central Valley, 42% Orange/San Diego, 48% Los Angeles). “How concerned are you about rising sea levels having an impact on flooding and beach erosion?” Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not too concerned Not at all concerned Don’t know All adults 45% 29 14 11 1 North and central coast 51% Region South coast 47% 30 27 11 14 7 10 –2 Inland 37% 30 15 17 2 African Americans 44% Race/Ethnicity Asian Americans Latinos 46% 51% Whites 40% 32 35 31 25 10 14 9 18 9 2 7 17 5 2 21 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 12 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 Ocean and Coastal Policies In January, the Department of the Interior released Support for allowing more oil drilling off the plans to allow new offshore oil drilling in areas California coast along the nation’s coast. When asked about allowing more oil drilling off the California 100 Favor Oppose coast, only 27 percent of adults are in favor of it; 67 percent are opposed. Findings were similar 80 67 Percent all adults last July (25% favor, 69% oppose) while support was somewhat higher in 2016 (36% favor, 59% 60 oppose). Across parties, an overwhelming majority of Democrats (82%) and a strong 40 majority of independents (66%) are opposed while a slight majority of Republicans (54%) are 20 27 in favor. Similar to last year, majorities across all age, education, income, and racial/ethnic 0 groups remain opposed. Regionally, fewer than a third of residents—with the exception of the Inland Empire (38%)—favor more oil drilling off the coast (22% Los Angeles, 22% San Francisco Bay Area, 27% Orange/San Diego, 32% Central Valley). Majorities of both coastal (71%) and inland (59%) residents oppose allowing more oil drilling off the California coast. “How about more oil drilling off the California coast? Do you favor or oppose this proposal?” Favor All adults 27% North and central coast 22% Region South coast 24% Inland 35% 18 to 34 25% Age 35 to 54 55 and older 26% 29% Oppose 67 72 70 59 67 72 62 Don’t know 66 5 6 82 9 The Trump administration’s efforts to open up more of the nation’s coast to offshore oil drilling could alter existing national marine sanctuaries and impact California’s marine protected areas (MPAs). An overwhelming majority of Californians (88%) support maintaining the existing rules and boundaries of national marine sanctuaries and MPAs off the California coast. There is bipartisan agreement, with at least eight in ten registered voters across parties in favor of maintaining these rules and boundaries. Indeed, more than three in four adults across regional, age, education, income, and racial/ethnic groups favor maintaining the rules and boundaries of national marine sanctuaries and California’s MPAs. “How about maintaining the rules and boundaries of national marine sanctuaries and California’s Marine Protected Areas—or MPAs—to protect fish, wildlife, and their habitat off the California coast? Do you favor or oppose this proposal?” All adults North and central coast Region South coast Inland 18 to 34 Age 35 to 54 55 and older Favor 88% 89% 89% 86% 90% 90% 86% Oppose 87 8 9 6 6 11 Don’t know 45 3 4 44 3 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 13 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 Public Perceptions and Policy Preferences Key Findings  About half of Californians approve of the overall job performance of Governor Brown and the legislature; approval of their handling of environmental issues is similar. Overall approval ratings for President Trump and Congress—as well as approval ratings of their handling of environmental issues—are far lower. (pages 15, 16)  Six in ten adults and likely voters favor California making its own policies to address global warming. Three in four say that it is important that California act as a global leader on climate change. (page 17)  Majorities of Californians say the effects of global warming have already begun and that global warming is a very serious threat to California’s future. Six in ten Californians are very concerned about severe wildfires and say that the issue of global warming is of personal importance to them. (page 18)  Solid majorities of adults and likely voters support the state law requiring California to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. Support is similar for a proposed law that would require 100 percent of the state’s electricity to come from renewable sources by 2045, and for a proposal to set higher emissions standards for automobiles. (page 19)  About half of adults and likely voters expect that California doing things to reduce global warming would lead to more jobs; a majority expect that state action would lead to higher gasoline prices. Half say they are willing to pay more for electricity from renewable sources. (page 20)  Half of adults say they have heard nothing about the state’s cap-and-trade system. After hearing a brief description, half favor the system. (page 21) PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Percent all adults Percent all adults Percent all adults Approval of state elected officials on environmental issues Governor Brown 80 California Legislature 60 47 47 49 51 48 39 40 35 39 51 48 42 43 36 38 38 31 20 0 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Concern about more severe wildfires as a possible impact of global warming Somewhat concerned 100 Very concerned 80 25 22 21 28 24 60 40 61 54 63 59 67 20 0 Central Valley Inland Empire Los Orange/San San Angeles Diego Francisco Bay Area Personal importance of the issue of global warming 100 80 20 60 Somewhat important Very important Extremely important 28 34 40 28 20 28 0 Californians 20 Adults nationwide* *June 2018, ABC News/Stanford/Resources for the Future poll Californians and the Environment 14 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 Approval Ratings of State Elected Officials Majorities of Californians (52% adults, 54% likely voters) approve of the way Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor. Approval ratings for Brown were similar in May (48% adults, 52% likely voters) and last July (53% adults, 52% likely voters). Today, Democrats (71%) are far more likely than independents (48%) and Republicans (16%) to express approval. Across regions, approval is highest in the San Francisco Bay Area (59%) and Los Angeles (59%). Latinos (61%), Asian Americans (58%), and African Americans (53%) are more likely than whites (45%) to approve. About half of Californians also approve of the way Governor Brown is handling environmental issues (48% adults, 53% likely voters)—similar to last July (51% adults, 53% likely voters). Among all adults, approval of his handling of environmental issues has increased by 13 points since he took office in 2011. Today, Democrats (65%) are much more likely than independents (43%) and Republicans (22%) to approve. Regionally, San Francisco Bay Area residents (59%) are the most likely to approve. “Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling…?” All adults Dem Party Rep His job as governor of California Environmental issues in California Approve Disapprove Don’t know Approve Disapprove Don’t know 52% 29 19 48 31 21 71% 14 15 65 18 17 16% 79 5 22 69 9 Ind 48% 34 18 43 37 20 Likely voters 54% 37 8 53 37 10 About half of Californians (46% adults, 46% likely voters) approve of the way the California Legislature is handling its job. Approval was similar in May (44% adults, 42% likely voters) and last July (50% adults, 45% likely voters). Today, Democrats (60%) are much more likely than independents (42%) and Republicans (13%) to approve. Majorities approve of the legislature in Los Angeles (53%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (52%). Majorities of Latinos (59%) and Asian Americans (53%) approve, compared to fewer African Americans (44%) and whites (37%). Four in ten Californians (43% adults, 43% likely voters) approve of the way the legislature is handling environmental issues. Approval was somewhat higher last July (51% adults, 49% likely voters) but has increased by 12 points among all adults since 2011. Today, Democrats (56%) are much more likely to approve than independents (37%) and Republicans (19%). Residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (50%) and Los Angeles (47%) are more likely than those in other regions to approve. Latinos (51%) and Asian Americans (48%) are more likely than African Americans (38%) and whites (38%) to approve. “Do you approve or disapprove of the way the California Legislature is handling…?” All adults Dem Party Rep Ind Its job Environmental issues in California Approve Disapprove Don’t know Approve Disapprove Don’t know 46% 60% 13% 42% 38 26 81 46 15 13 6 13 43 56 19 37 41 29 74 48 16 15 7 15 Likely voters 46% 46 8 43 47 11 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 15 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 Approval Ratings of Federal Elected Officials Twenty-nine percent of adults and 34 percent of likely voters approve of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president of the United States. Approval was similar in May (30% adults, 38% likely voters) and last July (25% adults, 34% likely voters). Today, 7 percent of Democrats, 32 percent of independents, and 80 percent of Republicans approve. Approval is much higher among whites (41%) than among Asian Americans (24%), Latinos (17%), and African Americans (13%). Approval among Californians is 14 points lower than among adults nationwide in a July Gallup weekly tracking poll (43%). Californians’ approval ratings are similar for the president’s handling of environmental issues (24% adults, 27% likely voters). Approval of the president’s handling of environmental issues was similar last July (22% adults, 31% likely voters). Today, 4 percent of Democrats, 20 percent of independents, and 67 percent of Republicans approve of the president’s handling of environmental issues. Majorities across age, education, gender, income, and racial/ethnic groups and regions of the state disapprove of the way the president is handling environmental issues. “Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling…?” All adults Dem Party Rep His job as president of the United States Approve Disapprove Don’t know 29% 7% 80% 66 90 20 53– Environmental issues in the United States Approve Disapprove Don’t know 24 4 67 67 91 22 8 5 11 Ind 32% 66 3 20 73 7 Likely voters 34% 64 2 27 67 6 The US Congress has low overall approval ratings among Californians (20% adults, 14% likely voters). Approval of Congress was similar in May (24% adults, 18% likely voters) and last July (24% adults, 17% likely voters). Today, 9 percent of Democrats, 19 percent of independents, and 29 percent of Republicans approve of Congress. Majorities across age, education, gender, income, and racial/ethnic groups and regions of the state disapprove of the way that the US Congress is handling its job. Approval of Congress was similar in a July Gallup national poll (17%). Approval ratings are similarly low for the way the US Congress is handling environmental issues (23% adults, 16% likely voters). Approval was similar last July (26% adults, 21% likely voters). Today, majorities across age, education, income, gender, partisan, and racial/ethnic groups and regions of the state disapprove of the way Congress is handling environmental issues in the United States. “Do you approve or disapprove of the way the US Congress is handling…?” All adults Dem Party Rep Approve 20% 9% 29% Its job Disapprove 71 85 66 Don’t know 965 Environmental issues in the United States Approve Disapprove Don’t know 23 12 29 66 82 55 10 5 16 Ind 19% 74 7 19 74 7 Likely voters 14% 83 3 16 76 8 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 16 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 State Leadership on Climate Change When it comes to climate change and energy policy, California’s political leaders and the federal government are going in different directions. Solid majorities of Californians (65% adults, 62% likely voters) favor having the state make its own policies, separate from the federal government, to address the issue of global warming. The proportion holding this view was similar last July (66% adults, 63% likely voters). Since we first asked this question in July 2005, more than half of Californians in annual PPIC Statewide Surveys on environmental issues have favored the state government making its own global warming policies separate from the federal government. Today, solid majorities of Democrats (82%) and independents (61%) are in favor of the state government making its own global warming policies, compared to 29 percent of Republicans. Majorities across age, education, gender, and income groups and regions of the state hold this view. However, public support declines with age (75% under 35, 65% 35 to 54, 55% 55 and older). Also, support for the state government making its own global warming policies is much higher in coastal regions than in inland regions (70% to 54%). Majorities across racial/ethnic groups (71% Asian Americans, 70% Latinos, 67% African Americans, 60% whites) are in favor of the state government making its own global warming policies. “Do you favor or oppose the California state government making its own policies, separate from the federal government, to address the issue of global warming?” All adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind voters Favor 65% 82% 29% 61% 62% Oppose 28 15 67 33 34 Don’t know 73 5 64 In September, Governor Brown will co-chair the Global Climate Action Summit, which will bring leaders from around the world to San Francisco. How do Californians feel about their state playing a prominent role in the climate change policy arena? When asked how important it is that California acts as a leader around the world in efforts to fight climate change, three in four Californians say it is very important (54% adults, 51% likely voters) or somewhat important (24% adults, 22% likely voters). Last July, similar proportions of adults (58% very, 23% somewhat) and likely voters (52% very, 20% somewhat) said that it was important for California to act as a climate change leader. Today, 67 percent of Democrats, 48 percent of independents, and 23 percent of Republicans say it is very important for California to act as a leader in addressing climate change. Strong majorities of Latinos (68%) and African Americans (65%)—compared to fewer whites (47%) and Asian Americans (46%)—say it is very important. Coastal residents (58%) are more likely than inland residents (46%) to say it is very important for California to act as a world leader on climate change. “When it comes to efforts to fight climate change, how important is it to you that California acts as a leader around the world?” All adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind voters Very important Somewhat important Not too important 54% 24 9 67% 28 3 23% 18 20 48% 30 8 51% 22 10 Not important at all Don’t know 12 2 38 13 17 1– 1 –– PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 17 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 Public Perceptions of Global Warming What are some of the public perceptions underlying support for California making its own policies and leading the fight against climate change? First, two in three Californians say that global warming has already begun (67% adults, 69% likely voters). This perception was similarly prevalent a year ago (66% adults, 66% likely voters), and majorities have held this view since we began asking this question in July 2005. Today, overwhelming majorities of Democrats (81%) and independents (74%)—and 36 percent of Republicans—say the effects have already begun. Majorities across regions and age, education, gender, income, and racial/ethnic groups hold this view. In a March Gallup survey, 60 percent of American adults said the effects of global warming have already begun. “Which of the following statements reflects your view of when the effects of global warming will begin to happen…?” Already begun All adults 67% African Americans 57% Race/Ethnicity Asian Americans Latinos 78% 64% Whites 66% Likely voters 69% Within a few years 5 13 1 10 2 3 Within your lifetime Not within lifetime, but will affect future Will never happen 5 10 8 4 12 2 4756 7 11 11 10 6 3 12 8 Don’t know 5 11 5544 Next, eight in ten Californians say that global warming is a very serious (56% adults, 57% likely voters) or somewhat serious (24% adults, 21% likely voters) threat to California’s future economy and quality of life. Last year, similar shares said the threat of global warming was very serious (58% adults, 52% likely voters) or somewhat serious (23% adults, 24% likely voters). Since we began asking this question in July 2005, at least six in ten Californians have seen the threat as very or somewhat serious. Today, majorities of Democrats (76%) and independents (59%)—and 22 percent of Republicans—say global warming is a very serious threat. Coastal residents (60%) are more likely than inland residents (48%) to hold this view. At least half across age, education, gender, income, and racial/ethnic groups say the threat of global warming is very serious. “How serious of a threat is global warming to the economy and quality of life for California’s future—do you think that it is a very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not at all serious of a threat?” Very serious Somewhat serious Not too serious Not at all serious Don’t know All adults 56% 24 9 9 2 African Americans 60% 26 10 1 3 Race/Ethnicity Asian Americans Latinos 57% 64% 24 27 10 4 63 32 Whites 50% 22 12 14 2 Likely voters 57% 21 9 12 1 In addition, six in ten Californians are very concerned (62% adults, 66% likely voters) about more severe wildfires caused by extreme weather as a possible effect of global warming in California. Majorities across regions and all demographic groups are very concerned. Finally, six in ten Californians say global warming is extremely or very important to them personally (62% adults, 60% likely voters), compared to 48 percent of American adults in a June ABC News/Stanford/Resources for the Future poll. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 18 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 Climate Change Policies The California Air Resources Board recently announced that the state has reduced greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels two years in advance of the 2020 goal set by Assembly Bill (AB) 32—a goal that strong majorities of Californians supported in surveys from 2006 to 2016. In 2016, policymakers passed Senate Bill (SB) 32, setting a new goal of further reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. When asked about this goal, two in three Californians (67% adults, 66% likely voters) are in favor—including strong majorities of Democrats (82%) and independents (68%) as well as 41 percent of Republicans. Support was similar last July (72% adults, 66% likely voters). Today, solid majorities across regions are in favor. Across racial/ethnic groups, Latinos (73%) are the most likely to be in favor, followed by Asian Americans (69%), African Americans (66%), and whites (64%). Solid majorities across age, education, gender, and income groups are in favor. The California Energy Commission estimates that 30 percent of California’s electricity in 2017 was derived from renewable sources. In 2015, the state legislature passed SB 350, which among other things established the goal that 50 percent of California’s electricity come from renewable energy sources by 2030. Currently, the legislature is considering SB 100, which would require that 100 percent of the state’s electricity be generated by renewable energy sources by 2045 and would move the 50 percent target date to 2026. Most Californians (72% adults, 67% likely voters)—including at least seven in ten Democrats and independents and nearly half of Republicans—support the 100 percent goal. Support was similar last July (76% adults, 71% likely voters). Two in three or more of Californians across regions and racial/ethnic groups are in favor. Solid majorities across age, education, and income groups favor this goal. “Do you favor or oppose…?” All Party Likely adults Dem Rep Ind voters The state law that requires California to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 40 percent below 1990 levels by the year 2030 Favor Oppose Don't know 67% 22 11 82% 9 9 41% 53 7 68% 23 9 66% 26 7 A proposed state law that Favor 72 81 47 73 67 would require 100 percent of the state’s electricity to come Oppose 21 11 46 20 25 from renewable energy sources by the year 2045 Don't know 7 8 6 7 8 After the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced earlier this year that it would relax future fuel standards, California and other states sued the Trump administration. The EPA also announced that it would reexamine the Clean Air Act waiver that allows California to set its own higher standards. When asked about setting higher emissions standards for automobiles, six in ten Californians (61% adults, 60% likely voters) are in favor. Democrats and independents are far more likely than Republicans to hold this view. Majorities across age, education, income, and racial/ethnic groups are in favor. Support is highest in the San Francisco Bay Area (70%) and lowest in the Inland Empire (48%). Support was similar among adults nationwide (66%) in a March Gallup poll. “How about setting higher emissions standards for automobiles? Do you favor or oppose this proposal?” Favor Oppose Don’t know All adults 61% 32 7 Dem 74% 22 5 Party Rep 34% 61 5 Ind 62% 32 7 Likely voters 60% 35 5 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 19 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 Potential Effects of Climate Change Policies The economic impact of California’s policies to address global warming is often debated, but when Californians are asked if these efforts would lead to more jobs, fewer jobs, or would not impact the number of jobs around the state, a plurality of Californians in our surveys dating back to July 2010 have said it would cause there to be more jobs. Today, about half of Californians (48%) and likely voters (51%) say state action would lead to more jobs for people around the state, and another 23 percent of adults say it would not affect the number of jobs; 18 percent say it would lead to fewer jobs for people around the state. Pluralities across regions anticipate more jobs. About half across racial/ethnic groups expect more jobs, as do pluralities across age, education, and income groups. Democrats (64%) are much more likely than independents (49%) and far more likely than Republicans (29%) to say there would be more jobs. “Do you think that California doing things to reduce global warming in the future would cause there to be more jobs for people around the state, would cause there to be fewer jobs, or wouldn’t affect the number of jobs for people around the state?” More jobs Fewer jobs Wouldn’t affect the number of jobs Don’t know All adults 48% 18 23 11 Central Valley 47% 20 23 10 Inland Empire 41% 19 25 15 Region Los Angeles 50% 17 21 11 Orange/ San Diego 45% 19 28 9 San Francisco Bay Area 51% 15 22 11 Likely voters 51% 19 21 9 While relatively few Californians expect state action on global warming to have a negative impact on jobs, majorities of adults (56%) and likely voters (58%) expect state action to cause gasoline prices to increase. Californians held similar opinions last July (54%) and in July 2016 (59%). Today, at least half across regions expect gasoline prices to increase. Partisans are in agreement that state action to reduce global warming would lead to gasoline price increases, although Democrats (51%) are less likely than independents (62%), and far less likely than Republicans (78%), to hold this view. Majorities across age and income groups say gas prices would increase, as do similar shares of men (59%) and women (54%). “Do you think that California doing things to reduce global warming in the future would cause gasoline prices at the pump around the state to increase, or to decrease, or wouldn’t affect gasoline prices at the pump around the state?” Increase gasoline prices Decrease gasoline prices Wouldn’t affect gasoline prices Don’t know All adults 56% 16 17 11 Central Valley 60% 12 14 13 Inland Empire 51% 14 23 11 Region Los Angeles 62% 16 13 9 Orange/ San Diego 54% 21 18 7 San Francisco Bay Area 50% 16 21 13 Likely voters 58% 12 19 11 When asked if they are willing to pay more for electricity if it were generated by renewable resources, half of Californians (50%) and likely voters (51%) say they are willing. Willingness among all adults was similar last year (51%). Today, there is a wide partisan divide (64% Democrats; 49% independents, 21% Republicans). Willingness also varies across regions, with a high of 60 percent in the San Francisco Bay Area and a low of 37 percent in the Inland Empire. Across racial/ethnic groups, Asian Americans (65%) are the most likely to say they are willing to pay more (49% Latinos, 48% whites, 44% African Americans). PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 20 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 Cap and Trade The share of Californians who have heard about the policy called “cap and trade” remains low, but a record-high share have heard at least a little (12% a lot, 34% a little) and a record-low share have heard nothing at all (53%). Latinos (69%), adults with no college education (67%), those with incomes below $40,000 (66%), and adults under 35 (65%) are the most likely to say they have heard nothing. After hearing a brief description of the state’s cap-and-trade system, half of Californians and likely voters (50% each) are in favor. Support has fluctuated from a high of 56 percent last July to a low of 49 percent in July 2009—the first year we asked about the program. Support is higher among Asian Americans (59%), Californians ages 18 to 34 (59%), college graduates (58%), and those with incomes of $80,000 or more (58%). Democrats (64%) are much more likely than independents (52%) and far more likely than Republicans (28%) to favor the cap-and-trade system. “In the system called ‘cap and trade,’ the California state government issues permits limiting the amount of greenhouse gases companies can put out. Companies that do not use all their permits can sell them to other companies. The idea is that many companies will find ways to put out less greenhouse gases, because that will be cheaper than buying permits. Do you favor or oppose the cap-and-trade system?” Favor All adults 50% Household income Under $40,000 $40,000 to under $80,000 $80,000 or more 44% 56% 58% Race/Ethnicity African Asian Americans Americans Latinos 38% 59% 53% Whites 48% Oppose 35 39 33 30 41 25 31 39 Don’t know 15 17 11 12 20 15 16 13 A portion of cap-and-trade revenues is designated for projects to improve environmental conditions in lower-income and disadvantaged communities. Half of Californians (51%) say it is very important to spend some of the revenues this way. An additional 29 percent say it is somewhat important, while one in five say it is not too important (8%) or not at all important (10%). Democrats (66%) are far more likely than independents (46%) or Republicans (23%) to say it is very important to spend revenues this way. African Americans (66%) and Latinos (65%) are much more likely than Asian Americans (52%) and far more likely than whites (39%) to hold this view. Across regions, residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (55%) and Los Angeles (54%) are the most likely to say it is very important that revenues are spent to improve environmental conditions in lower-income and disadvantaged communities (49% Orange/San Diego, 47% Inland Empire, 45% Central Valley). Women (55%) are more likely than men (45%) to hold this view. Californians ages 18 to 34 (56%) and 35 to 54 (53%) are more likely than those who are 55 and older (43%) to say it is very important to spend revenues this way. “How important to you is it that some of the cap-and-trade revenues are spent on projects to improve environmental conditions in lower-income and disadvantaged communities?” Very important All adults 51% Household income Under $40,000 $40,000 to under $80,000 $80,000 or more 57% 53% 45% Race/Ethnicity African Asian Americans Americans Latinos 66% 52% 65% Whites 39% Somewhat important 29 29 28 30 21 34 24 32 Not too important Not important at all Don’t know 8 10 3 5 7 2 9 9 2 5 5 11 7 14 6 5 3 16 3 3 4 3 23 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 21 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Regional Map JULY 2018 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 22 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Methodology JULY 2018 The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance from survey research associate Alyssa Dykman, project manager for this survey, and associate survey director Dean Bonner and survey research associate Lunna Lopes. The Californians and the Environment survey is supported with funding from the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, the Dirk and Charlene Kabcenell Foundation, the Flora Family Foundation, and the Heising-Simons Foundation. The PPIC Statewide Survey invites input, comments, and suggestions from policy and public opinion experts and from its own advisory committee, but survey methods, questions, and content are determined solely by PPIC’s survey team. Findings in this report are based on a survey of 1,711 California adult residents, including 1,198 interviewed on cell phones and 513 interviewed on landline telephones. Interviews took an average of 19 minutes to complete. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights from July 8–17, 2018. Cell phone interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of cell phone numbers. All cell phone numbers with California area codes were eligible for selection. Once a cell phone user was reached, it was verified that this person was age 18 or older, a resident of California, and in a safe place to continue the survey (e.g., not driving). Cell phone respondents were offered a small reimbursement to help defray the cost of the call. Cell phone interviews were conducted with adults who have cell phone service only and with those who have both cell phone and landline service in the household. Landline interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible for selection. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. For both cell phones and landlines, telephone numbers were called as many as eight times. When no contact with an individual was made, calls to a number were limited to six. Also, to increase our ability to interview Asian American adults, we made up to three additional calls to phone numbers estimated by Survey Sampling International as likely to be associated with Asian American individuals. Live landline and cell phone interviews were conducted by Abt Associates in English and Spanish, according to respondents’ preferences. Accent on Languages, Inc., translated new survey questions into Spanish, with assistance from Renatta DeFever. Abt Associates uses the US Census Bureau’s 2012–2016 American Community Survey’s (ACS) Public Use Microdata Series for California (with regional coding information from the University of Minnesota’s Integrated Public Use Microdata Series for California) to compare certain demographic characteristics of the survey sample—region, age, gender, race/ethnicity, and education—with the characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the ACS figures. To estimate landline and cell phone service in California, Abt Associates used 2016 state-level estimates released by the National Center for Health Statistics—which used data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the ACS. The estimates for California were then compared against landline and cell phone service reported in this survey. We also used voter registration data from the California Secretary of State to compare the party registration of registered voters in our sample to party registration statewide. The landline and cell phone samples were then integrated using a frame integration weight, while sample balancing adjusted for differences across regional, age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, telephone service, and party registration groups. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 23 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY JULY 2018 The sampling error, taking design effects from weighting into consideration, is ±3.4 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total unweighted sample of 1,711 adults. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 3.4 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for unweighted subgroups is larger: for the 1,420 registered voters, the sampling error is ±3.6 percent; for the 1,020 likely voters, it is ±4.3 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. We present results for five geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, “Inland Empire” refers to Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, and “Orange/San Diego” refers to Orange and San Diego Counties. Residents of other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes for these less populous areas are not large enough to report separately. Additionally, in several places, we refer to coastal and inland counties. Within coastal counties, the “north and central coast” region refers to the counties along the California coast from San Luis Obispo County northward to Del Norte County, including all the San Francisco Bay Area counties. The “south coast” region includes Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego Counties. All other counties are included in the “inland” region. We also present results for congressional districts currently held by Democrats or Republicans, based on residential zip code and party of the local US House member. We analyze the results of those who live in competitive house districts as determined by the Cook Political Report’s 2018 House Race Ratings updated July 18, 2018. We present results for non-Hispanic whites, who account for 42 percent of the state’s adult population, and also for Latinos, who account for about a third of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest-growing voter groups. We also present results for non-Hispanic Asian Americans, who make up about 15 percent of the state’s adult population, and non-Hispanic African Americans, who comprise about 6 percent. Results for other racial/ethnic groups—such as Native Americans—are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes are not large enough for separate analysis. Results for African American and Asian American likely voters are combined with those of other racial/ethnic groups because sample sizes for African American and Asian American likely voters are too small for separate analysis. We compare the opinions of those who report they are registered Democrats, registered Republicans, and decline-to-state or independent voters; the results for those who say they are registered to vote in other parties are not large enough for separate analysis. We also analyze the responses of likely voters—so designated per their responses to survey questions about voter registration, previous election participation, intentions to vote this year, attention to election news, and current interest in politics. The percentages presented in the report tables and in the questionnaire may not add to 100 due to rounding. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey results to those in our earlier surveys and to those in national surveys by Gallup and ABC News/Stanford/Resources for the Future. Additional details about our methodology can be found at www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads /SurveyMethodology.pdf and are available upon request through surveys@ppic.org. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 24 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Questionnaire and Results JULY 2018 CALIFORNIANS AND THE ENVIRONMENT July 8–17, 2018 1,711 California Adult Residents: English, Spanish MARGIN OF ERROR ±3.4% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100 DUE TO ROUNDING First, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California? 52% 29 19 approve disapprove don’t know Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Brown is handling environmental issues in California? 48% 31 21 approve disapprove don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job? 46% 38 15 approve disapprove don’t know Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling environmental issues in California? 43% 41 16 approve disapprove don’t know Next, what do you think is the most important environmental issue facing California today? [code, don’t read] 19% 16 12 8 6 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 13 7 water supply, drought, reservoirs air pollution, vehicle emissions, smog global warming, climate change, greenhouse gases water pollution of ocean, rivers, lakes, streams, beach pollution loss of forests, forest fires, wildfires landfills, garbage, sewage, waste, recycling pollution in general energy, fossil fuels, solar, nuclear, wind, alternative too much government regulation, politicians, environmentalists oil drilling, offshore oil drilling, production population growth, overpopulation traffic, congestion, transportation, transit other (specify) don’t know Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote in California? 67% yes [ask q6a] 33 no [skip to q7b] PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 25 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY 6a. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or are you registered as a decline-to-state or independent voter? 45% 26 5 25 Democrat [ask q7] Republican [skip to q7a] another party (specify) [skip to q8] independent [skip to q7b] Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 59% 39 3 strong not very strong don’t know [skip to q8] 7a. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 62% 33 5 strong not very strong don’t know [skip to q8] 7b. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party? 20% 40 29 11 Republican Party Democratic Party neither (volunteered) don’t know [likely voters only] If the November 6 election for governor were being held today, would you vote for [rotate] (1) John Cox, a Republican, [or] (2) Gavin Newsom, a Democrat? 55% 31 5 9 Gavin Newsom, a Democrat John Cox, a Republican neither/would not vote for governor (volunteered) don’t know JULY 2018 [[likely voters only] How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2018 governor’s election—very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 17% 42 28 13 – very closely fairly closely not too closely not at all closely don’t know [likely voters only] In thinking about the California governor’s election in November, how important to you are the candidates’ positions on the environment in determining your vote—very important, somewhat important, or not too important? 56% 31 13 1 very important somewhat important not too important don’t know [likely voters only] If the November 6 election for the US Senate were being held today, would you vote for [rotate] (1) Kevin de León, a Democrat, [or] (2) Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat? 46% 24 20 9 Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat Kevin de León, a Democrat neither/would not vote for senate (volunteered) don’t know [likely voters only] Which of the following is more important to you in candidates for statewide office, such as governor or US senator, when it comes to environmental issues—rotate] (1) that they work with the Trump Administration [or] (2) that they push back against the Trump Administration? 39% 55 3 3 work with the Trump Administration push back against the Trump Administration both (volunteered) don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 26 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Next, would you say that the supply of water is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem in your part of California? 48% 24 25 2 big problem somewhat of a problem not much of a problem don’t know [likely voters only] The November 6 ballot has a state bond measure of approximately $8.9 billion to pay for various water infrastructure projects. If the election were being held today, would you vote yes or no? 58% 25 17 yes no don’t know We are interested in the part of California that you live in. Would you say that air pollution is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem in your part of California? 29% 37 33 1 big problem somewhat of a problem not a problem don’t know Do you think that air pollution is a more serious health threat in lower-income areas than other areas in your part of California, or not? 56% 38 6 yes no don’t know JULY 2018 On another topic, which of the following statements reflects your view of when the effects of global warming will begin to happen—[rotate order] (1) they have already begun to happen; (2) they will start happening within a few years; (3) they will start happening within your lifetime; (4) they will not happen within your lifetime, but they will affect future generations; [or] (5) they will never happen? 67% 5 5 10 8 5 already begun within a few years within your lifetime not within lifetime, but will affect future generations will never happen don’t know How serious of a threat is global warming to the economy and quality of life for California’s future—do you think that it is a very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not at all serious of a threat? 56% 24 9 9 2 very serious somewhat serious not too serious not at all serious don’t know Thinking about the possible impact of global warming in California, how concerned are you about more severe wildfires because of extreme weather? Are you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not at all concerned about that as an impact? 62% 23 7 7 1 very concerned somewhat concerned not too concerned not at all concerned don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 27 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY How important is the issue of global warming to you personally—extremely important, very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 28% 34 20 7 10 1 extremely important very important somewhat important not too important not at all important don’t know Next, to address global warming, do you favor or oppose the state law that requires California to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 40 percent below 1990 levels by the year 2030? 67% 22 11 favor oppose don’t know Do you favor or oppose a proposed state law that would require 100 percent of the state’s electricity to come from renewable energy sources by the year 2045? 72% 21 7 favor oppose don’t know Do you favor or oppose the California state government making its own policies, separate from the federal government, to address the issue of global warming? 65% 28 7 favor oppose don’t know When it comes to efforts to fight climate change, how important is it to you that California acts as a leader around the world—very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all? 54% 24 9 12 1 very important somewhat important not too important not important at all don’t know JULY 2018 Do you think that California doing things to reduce global warming in the future would cause there to be more jobs for people around the state, would cause there to be fewer jobs, or wouldn’t affect the number of jobs for people around the state? 48% 18 23 11 more jobs fewer jobs wouldn’t affect the number of jobs don’t know Do you think that California doing things to reduce global warming in the future would cause gasoline prices at the pump around the state to increase, or to decrease, or wouldn’t affect gasoline prices at the pump around the state? 56% 16 17 11 increase gasoline prices decrease gasoline prices wouldn’t affect gasoline prices don’t know In order to help reduce global warming, would you be willing or not willing to pay more for electricity if it were generated by renewable sources like solar or wind energy? 50% 44 6 willing not willing don’t know How much, if anything, have you heard about the state government policy called “cap and trade” that sets limits on greenhouse gas emissions? Have you heard a lot, a little, or nothing at all? 12% 34 53 – a lot a little nothing at all don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 28 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY In the system called “cap and trade,” the California state government issues permits limiting the amount of greenhouse gases companies can put out. Companies that do not use all their permits can sell them to other companies. The idea is that many companies will find ways to put out less greenhouse gases, because that will be cheaper than buying permits. Do you favor or oppose the cap-and-trade system? 50% 35 15 favor oppose don’t know Next, how important to you is it that some of the cap-and-trade revenues are spent on projects to improve environmental conditions in lower-income and disadvantaged communities—very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all? 51% 29 8 10 3 very important somewhat important not too important not important at all don’t know Next, I am interested in your views about ocean and marine life along the California coast. Thinking about the overall health and quality of the ocean along the California coast today—would you rate them as excellent, good, fair, or poor? 9% 30 38 19 4 excellent good fair poor don’t know In the past 10 years, do you think the population of most fish off of the California coast have increased, decreased, or stayed about the same? 12% 53 22 13 increased decreased stayed the same don’t know JULY 2018 How important is the condition of the ocean and beaches to the economy and quality of life for California’s future? Is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all? 74% 21 2 2 1 very important somewhat important not too important not important at all don’t know Next, thinking about the possible impact of global warming in California, [rotate questions 34 and 35] How concerned are you about rising sea levels having an impact on flooding and beach erosion? Are you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not at all concerned? 45% 29 14 11 1 very concerned somewhat concerned not too concerned not at all concerned don’t know How concerned are you about ocean warming having an impact on marine and coastal life? Are you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not at all concerned? 50% 28 13 9 1 very concerned somewhat concerned not too concerned not at all concerned don’t know Please say if you favor or oppose the following proposals. [rotate questions 36 to 38] How about allowing more oil drilling off the California coast? 27% 67 6 favor oppose don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 29 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY How about maintaining the rules and boundaries of national marine sanctuaries and California’s Marine Protected Areas— or MPAs—to protect fish, wildlife, and their habitat off the California coast? 88% 8 4 favor oppose don’t know How about setting higher emissions standards for automobiles? 61% 32 7 favor oppose don’t know On another topic, Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president? 29% 66 5 approve disapprove don’t know Do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Trump is handling environmental issues in the United States? 24% 67 8 approve disapprove don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the US Congress is handling its job? 20% 71 9 approve disapprove don’t know Do you approve or disapprove of the way the US Congress is handling environmental issues in the United States? 23% 66 10 approve disapprove don’t know JULY 2018 Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 14% 21 27 20 14 3 very liberal somewhat liberal middle-of-the-road somewhat conservative very conservative don’t know Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics? 24% 36 29 11 1 great deal fair amount only a little none don’t know [d1-d16 demographic questions] PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and the Environment 30 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect Angela Glover Blackwell President and CEO PolicyLink Mollyann Brodie Senior Vice President Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Bill Lane Center for the American West Stanford University Jon Cohen Vice President of Survey Research SurveyMonkey Joshua J. Dyck Co-Director Center for Public Opinion University of Massachusetts, Lowell Lisa García Bedolla Director Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley Russell Hancock President and CEO Joint Venture Silicon Valley Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Professor Sol Price School of Public Policy University of Southern California Robert Lapsley President California Business Roundtable Carol S. Larson President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Sonja Petek Fiscal and Policy Analyst California Legislative Analyst’s Office Lisa Pitney Vice President of Government Relations The Walt Disney Company Robert K. Ross, MD President and CEO The California Endowment Most Reverend Jaime Soto Bishop of Sacramento Roman Catholic Diocese of Sacramento Carol Whiteside Principal California Strategies The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PPIC BOARD OF DIRECTORS Mas Masumoto, Chair Author and Farmer Mark Baldassare President and CEO Public Policy Institute of California Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect María Blanco Executive Director University of California Immigrant Legal Services Center Louise Henry Bryson Chair Emerita, Board of Trustees J. Paul Getty Trust A. Marisa Chun Partner McDermott Will & Emery LLP Chet Hewitt President and CEO Sierra Health Foundation Phil Isenberg Former Chair Delta Stewardship Council Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Steven A. Merksamer Senior Partner Nielsen, Merksamer, Parrinello, Gross & Leoni, LLP Leon E. Panetta Chairman The Panetta Institute for Public Policy Gerald L. Parsky Chairman Aurora Capital Group Kim Polese Chairman ClearStreet, Inc. Gaddi H. Vasquez Senior Vice President, Government Affairs Edison International Southern California Edison Public Policy Institute of California 500 Washington Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, CA 94111 T: 415.291.4400 F: 415.291.4401 PPIC.ORG PPIC Sacramento Center Senator Office Building 1121 L Street, Suite 801 Sacramento, CA 95814 T: 916.440.1120 F: 916.440.1121" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2018-07-26 03:39:06" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(31) "ppic-statewide-survey-july-2018" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2018-07-25 20:40:12" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2018-07-26 03:40:12" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["guid"]=> string(74) "http://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/ppic-statewide-survey-july-2018.pdf" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_mime_type"]=> string(15) "application/pdf" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" ["status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["attachment_authors"]=> bool(false) }