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object(Timber\Post)#3742 (44) { ["ImageClass"]=> string(12) "Timber\Image" ["PostClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Post" ["TermClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Term" ["object_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["custom"]=> array(5) { ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(13) "S_1212MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "504784" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(92764) "CONTENTS About the Survey 2 Press Release 3 Planning for the Future 6 Fiscal and Governance Reforms 15 Regional Map 24 Methodology 25 Questionnaire and Results 27 the future DECEMBER 2012 & P P I C S TAT E W I D E S U R V E Y Californians Mark Baldassare Dean Bonner Sonja Petek Jui Shrestha in collaboration with S.D. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation and The San Francisco Foundation December 2012 Californians and the Future 2 ABOUT THE SURVEY The PPIC Statewide Sur vey provides policymakers, the media, and the public with objective, advocacy- free information on the perceptions, opinions, and public policy preferences of California residents. This is the 130th PPIC Statewide Sur vey in a series that was inaugurated in April 1998 and has generated a database of responses from more than 274,000 Californians. The current survey, Californians and the Future , is a special survey examining residents’ outlook on the future, including recent electoral reforms, potential fiscal, governance, and initiative reforms, the passage of Proposition 30, the state’s public higher education system, water policy , and elected officials’ handling of plans and policies for the state’s future. The sur vey is suppor ted with funding from the S.D. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation, The San Francisco Foundation, The David and Susan Coulter Family Foundation, and the Walter S. Johnson Foundation. This sur vey began the week after the presidential election, in a decidedly changed political and fiscal atmosphere. Voters had just passed a tax increase (Proposition 30, promoted by Governor Brown) and another measure that will likely increase the income taxes paid by multistate corporations (Proposition 39). It was the first general election that involved the “top two” candidate system and voting districts drawn by a citizens’ commission. And, impor tantly, voters ushered in a two- thirds majority for Democrats in the state assembly and state senate. How Democrats will use this new power remains to be seen. On the second day of inter viewing, the state’s legislative analyst announced a much improved fiscal outlook for the state, thanks to the expected revenues from Proposition 30 and a recovering economy, but still projected a budget deficit of $1.9 billion for the next fiscal year. This sur vey presents the responses of 2,001 adult residents throughout the state, inter viewed in English or Spanish by landline or cell phone. It includes findings on these topics:  Planning for the future, including Californians’ future and current outlook; approval ratings of the governor and legislature overall and on their handling of plans and policies for the state’s future; how the passage of Proposition 30 affects residents’ budget outlook; perceptions of the state’s public higher education system and the impor tance of educating California’s future workforce; and perceptions of water supply and preferences for water policy .  Fiscal and governance reforms, including perceived effects of recent electoral reforms (the top- two primar y system and inde pendent redistricting); attitudes toward legislative reforms (par t - time legislature, single -house legislature, larger legislature), spending reforms (state spending limit, increasing the rainy day fund, requiring new programs and tax reductions to identify a funding source); and fiscal reforms (two -year budget, simple legisla tive majority to pass state taxes, 55 percent majority to pass local special taxes); attitudes toward Proposition 13; suppor t for expanding the tax base (split -roll proper ty tax, assessing sales tax on ser vices, increasing the vehicle license fee) ; and attitudes toward the citizens’ initiative process , including suppor t for reforms .  Time trends and the extent to which Californians may differ in their perceptions, attitudes, and preferences based on political par ty affiliation, likelihood of voting, region of residence, race/ethnicity, and other demographics. This repor t may be downloaded free of charge from our website ( www.ppic.org). If you have questions about the sur vey, please contact sur vey@ppic.org . Tr y our PPIC Statewide Sur vey interactive tools online at http://www.ppic.org/main/sur vAdvancedSearch.asp. PPIC Statewide Survey December 2012 Californians and the Future 5 reforms, 58 percent say Proposition 11 turned out to be mostly a good thing for the state (21% mostly a bad thing, 18% don’t know) and 63 percent say this about Proposition 14 (23% mostl y a bad thing, 13% don’t know). The results underscore Californians’ faith in their own decisionmaking, Baldassare notes: “Most Californians are happy with the initiative process and the outcomes of the fiscal and governance changes that voters enacted at the ballot box —from Proposition 13 in 1978 to legislative redistricting, the top -two primary system, and Proposition 30 in November.” In another indication of their view of initiatives, majorities (59% adults, 59% likely voters) say the public policy decis ions voters make through this process are probably better than those made by the governor and state legislature. Most have held this view since PPIC began asking the question in 2000. There is, however, support for two proposed reforms to the initiative process. Overwhelming majorities (76% adults, 86% likely voters) favor requiring the “yes” and “no” campaigns for initiatives to increase disclosure of their contributors. Strong majorit ies (69% adults, 66% likely voters) favor requiring voters to renew initiatives after a certain number of years by voting on them again. Both of these proposals have majority support across parties, regions, and demographic groups. A third proposed reform fares less well: allowing the legislature, with the governor’s approval, to amend initiatives after a certain number of years. About half of adults (48%) favor this idea, while more than half of likely voters (55%) are opposed. There is much less enthusia sm for three proposals to change the legislative structure. Adults are divided on whether to change the legislature from full -time to part -time status, with 48 percent calling it a good idea and 45 percent saying it’s a bad one. They oppose changing the legislature from two houses to a single house of 120 members (36% good idea, 51% bad idea). Residents also oppose simply increasing the number of legislators so that each represents fewer constituents (40% good idea, 53% bad idea). CONCERNED ABOUT COLLEGE COSTS, ACCESSIBILITY Nearly all Californians say the state’s public higher education system is very important (85%) or somewhat important (11%) to the quality of life and economic vitality of the state over the next 20 years. Yet they express growing concern about the system . The share of adults who say affordability is a big problem is at a new high of 65 percent, up 13 points since 2008. And 43 percent say overall accessibility is a big problem, an increase of 19 points since 2007. Despite passage of Prop osition 30— which averted trigger cuts to higher education—64 percent say the state budget situation is a big problem for higher education. These concerns come at a time when a record-high 51 percent of parents of children age 18 or younger say they hope their youngest child will attain a graduate degree. How much confidence do residents have in the state government to plan for the future of higher education? Half have at least some confidence (13% a great deal of confidence, 37% only some confidence). The other half have very little (34%) or none (15%). DIVIDED ON WATER POLICY PRIORITIES Most Californians think that the supply of water is a big problem (31%) or somewhat of one (28%) in their part of the state. The share of those calling this a big problem has declined 13 points since December 2009 (44%), when the state was in a drought. Residents of the Central Valley (38%) are the most likely to say the supply in their area is a big problem, while those in the San Francisco Bay Area (20%) are the least like ly. When presented with two approaches to manage the water supply, 47 percent say the focus should be on building new water storage systems and increasing supply, while 50 percent say it should be on conservation and using the current water supply more eff iciently. And, with declining fish populations a contentious topic, 61 percent of Californians favor increasing state spending to improve conditions for native fish. But that support drops to 39 percent if this would mean an incr ease in residential water b ills. December 2012 Californians and the Future 6 PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE KEY FINDINGS  Looking ahead to 2025, a plurality of Californians (42%) say the state will be a better place to live than it is now. This is a remarkable increase in optimism since June 2004 (25%). ( page 7)  Despite ongoing economic concerns, the sense that the state is headed in the right direction (44%) is at its highest level since before the recession. (page 8)  In the wake of a successful Proposition 30 campaign, Governor Brown’s job ap proval ratings are at a record high among all adults (48% ) and likely voters (49%). The l egislature receives its highest marks (34%) since January 2008. ( page 9)  A plurality of all adults and likely voters (46% each ) say that the passage of Proposition 30 makes them more optimistic about the budget situation. About one in four are more pessimistic. Voters are divided along party lines. (page 1 0)  Concerns about college affordability in California continue to grow, and the share saying accessibility is a big problem has jumped 19 points since 2007. ( page 11)  Most parents want their children to attend college, with a record 51 percent hoping for graduate school. Californians consider the state’s public higher education system ver y important and anticipate a shortage of college -educated workers in the future. Half are confident that state leaders can plan for the system’s future. ( pages 12, 13 )  On water policy, six in 10 say water supply in their part of the state is at least somewhat of a problem . On water supply management, Californians are divided between storage and conservation. ( page 14) 34 424142403941 48 2423262525253034 0 20 40 60 80 Mar11May11Sep11Dec11Mar12May12Sep12Dec12 Percent all adults Governor Brown California Legislature Approval Ratings of State Elected Officials 25 42 49 28 2023 0 20 40 60 80 June2004Dec2012 Percent all adults Better place Worse place No change California as a Place to Live in 2025 535257606165 24 43 0 20 40 60 80 100 Oct07Nov08Nov09Nov10Nov11Dec12 Percent all adults Affordability Accessibility Percent saying "Big Problem" for the Public Higher Education System PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 7 FUTURE OUTLOOK How do Californians view the future ? Four in 10 adults (42%), likely voters (40%), and parents of children age 18 or younger (40%) say that California will be a better place to live in 2025 than it is now. Fewer say it will be a worse place (28% adults, 35% likely voters, 26% parents). In June 2004, positive perception s about the future were held by fewer California adults (25%), likely voters (24 %), and parents (28%). Across parties, Democrats (57%) and independents (43%) think California in 2025 will be a better place, but a majority of Republicans (54%) say it will be worse. Across regions and demographic groups, optimists clearly outweigh pessimists —except among whites , those age 55 and older, and those with household incomes of $80,000 or more. Since 2004 there have been double -digit incre ases across party, region, and demographic groups (except Republicans) in the view that California will be a better place in 2025 . This perception has increased 34 points among Democrats and 17 points among independents, while Republican views are relative ly unchanged (down 2 points). Other notable increases have occurred among those with incomes of $40,000 to $80,000 (up 22 points since 2004 ), residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (up 21 points), those age 18 to 34 (up 21 points), college graduates (up 20 points) , and women (up 19 points). Among those who think California is currently heading in the right direction, 61 percent say it will be a better place in 2025; among those who think California is going in the wrong direction, 23 percent are optimisti c about 2025 . “Overall, do you think that in 2025 California will be a better place to live than it is now or a worse place to live than it is now or will there be no change?” Better place Worse place No change Don’t know All adults 42% 28% 23% 8% Likely voters 40 35 18 8 Parents of children 18 or younger 40 26 25 9 Party Democrats 57 17 17 9 Republicans 23 54 17 6 Independents 43 26 25 7 Gender Men 39 30 21 9 Women 44 25 25 6 Race/ethnicity Asians 41 28 20 11 Latinos 47 18 30 5 Whites 37 37 18 8 Region Central Valley 41 27 24 8 San Francisco Bay Area 45 24 23 8 Los Angeles 42 25 26 7 Other Southern California 39 31 20 10 Age 18–34 48 20 28 5 35–54 40 29 22 9 55 and older 36 35 19 10 Household income Under $40,000 44 21 29 6 $40,000 to under $80,000 46 30 19 5 $80,000 or more 35 34 18 12 PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 8 CURRENT OUTLOOK Given Californians’ optimism about the future , how do they view the direction the state is currently heading? Forty -four percent of Californians say the state is going in the right direction, while half say it is headed in the wrong direction. The percentage saying the state is heading in the right direction today is similar to October 2012 (39%) and is the highest it has been since June 2007 (44%). Across parties , this view is held by 61 percent of Democrats ; 80 percent of Republicans and 55 percent of independents say the state is headed in the wrong direction. Just over half of Latinos (54%) and Asians (51%) think the state is headed in the right direction, while six in 10 whites (60%) say it is headed in the wrong direction. Optimism about the direction of the state is higher among those with house hold incomes under $40,000 (50%) than among others (42% $40,000 to $80,000; 39% $80,000 or more) . Optimism declines with age. “Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?” All adults Age Race/ethnicity 18–34 35 –54 55 and older Asians Latinos Whites Right direction 44% 50% 45% 37% 51% 54% 36% Wrong direction 50 44 50 57 43 38 60 Don’t know 6 6 5 6 6 8 4 When asked what they think is the most important issue facing people in California today, 53 percent of Californians mention the economy and jobs . Far fewer mention education or schools (13%) or the state budget, deficit, or taxes (10%). The economy is the top issue mentioned across all political, regional, and demog raphic groups. Education and schools is named by twice as many Californians ages 18 to 34 as by those age s 35 and older. Whites (16%) and Asians (12%) are more likely than Latinos (3%) to mention the state budget as the top issue . Concerns about the econom y are much higher among lower - and middle -income residents (58% each) than among higher-income residents (43%). “Thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today? Top three issues mention ed All adults Age Race/ethnicity 18–34 35 –54 55 and older Asians Latinos Whites Economy, jobs 53% 47% 58% 54% 55% 57% 48% Education, schools 13 20 9 10 12 12 14 State budget, deficit, taxes 10 7 12 12 12 3 16 Californians’ view s of the state’s economic outlook mirror their views of the general direction of the state, with 41 percent saying they expect good economic times in the next 12 months and 50 percent saying they expect bad times. Today’s expectation of good times is simila r to October 2012 (37%), but is at its highest point since January 2007 (50%). A majority of Democrats (56%) expect good times, while nearly eight in 10 Republicans (78%) and half of independents expect bad times (36% good times, 52% bad times) . The expect ation of good times is higher among Latinos (51%) than among Asians (36%) or whites (34%); this expectation decreases as age and income levels increase. Residents in the Other Southern California region (61%) are the most likely to say the state can expect bad times economically, followed by residents in the Central Valley (47%), Los Angeles (46 %), and the San Francisco Bay Area (43%). PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 9 APPROVAL RATINGS OF STATE ELECTED OFFICIALS Approval of Governor Jerry Brown (48%) has reached a high point after the passage of Proposition 30, a tax initiative that he promoted. This rating marks a slight increase since October (42%) and surpasses his previous high of 46 percent in January 2012. Still, 35 percent disapprove of his job performance and 17 percent are unsure. Likely voters are more likely to approve than disapprove (49% approve, 40% disapprove, 11% unsure). Partisans are divided , with seven in 10 Democrats (70%) approving, seven in 10 Republicans (68%) disapproving, and independents more likely to appr ove (44%) than disapprove (36%). Asians (63%) and Latinos (50%) are more likely than whites (41%) to approve. Approval of the California Legislature has reached 34 percent among all adults; 51 percent disapprove. Approval has increased slightly since Octo ber (28%) and surpasses 30 percent for the first time since January 2008 (34%). Today, likely voters are more disapproving (26% approve, 61% disapprove) than are all adults. Republicans (80%) and independents (52% ) disapprove of the legislature, while Democrats are divided (39% approve, 43% disapprove). Approval is much higher among Latinos (47%) and Asians (40%) than among whites (24%) . But it declines with age and is lower among those with at least some college education than among those with only a high school degree or less. Californians with household incomes of less than $40,000 are far more likely than more-affluent Californians to approve of the legislature. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that…” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California? Approve 48% 70% 20% 44% 49% Disapprove 35 18 68 36 40 Don’t know 17 12 12 20 11 The California Legislature is handling its job? Approve 34 39 11 34 26 Disapprove 51 43 80 52 61 Don’t know 15 18 9 14 13 Approval of the governor’s handling of plans and policies for California’s future is similar to his overall approval , with 46 percent approving and 38 percent disapproving. Two in three Democrats (67%) approve, seven in 10 Republicans (70%) disapprove, and independents are divided (43% approve, 38% disapprove). Ratings of the California L egislature on handling California’s future (32% approve, 53% disapprove) are also similar to its overall approval. Republicans (78%) are the most disapproving , followed by independents (58%) and Democrats (44%). Approval of the legislature on this issue is similar to our findings th e last time we asked this question in August 2006 (28% approve, 54% disapprove). “Overall, from what you know, do y ou approve or disapprove of the way that … is handling plans and policies for California’s future?” All adults Age Race/ethnicity 18–34 35 –54 55 and older Asians Latinos Whites Governor Brown Approve 46% 51% 46% 41% 56% 50% 40% Disapprove 38 31 40 44 23 33 46 Don’t know 16 19 14 15 20 17 14 The California Legislature Approve 32 41 33 21 32 50 21 Disapprove 53 40 54 65 46 38 64 Don’t know 15 18 13 14 22 12 15 PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 10 STATE BUDGET SITUATION How does the passage of Proposition 30 make Californians feel about the state budget situation? Forty- six percent say it makes them more optimistic, 23 percent say more pessimistic, and 28 percent say it does not change the way they feel. Two in three Democrats (66%) and a plurality of independents (48%) say it makes them more optimistic; a plurality of Republicans (50%) say it makes them more pessimistic. Pluralities across regions and demographic groups are more optimistic. Residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (54%) are the most likely to be more optimistic, followed by those in the Central Valley (48%), Los Angeles (44% ), and the Other Southern California region (40%). Asians (53%) are more likely than Latinos and whites (44% each) to share this view . Among those who view the budget situation as a big problem, 40 percent are more optimistic , 28 percent are more pessimist ic, and 30 percent feel no change. Among those who approve of Governor Brown, 65 percent are more optimistic about the state budget situation. “As you may know, voters passed Proposition 30 on the November 6th ballot. Proposition 30 will increase taxes on earnings over $250,000 for seven years and sales taxes by ¼ cent for four years, to fund schools, and it guarantees public safety realignment f unding. Does the passage of Proposition 30 make you more optimistic about the state’s budget situation, more pessimistic, or does this not change the way you feel about California’s budget situation?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind More optimistic 46% 66% 22% 48% 46% More pessimistic 23 10 50 24 28 Does not change the way I feel 28 22 26 27 24 Don’t know 3 1 2 1 1 Still, nearly all Californians continue to call the state budget situation a problem (68% big problem, 26% somewhat of a problem) . Likely voters are even more pessimistic (74% big problem, 21% somewhat of a problem). Findings are similar to those in October for all adults (70% big, 25% somewhat of a problem). Since January 2008, more than six in 10 Californians have said the budget situation is a big problem. When it comes to the size of government, 55 percent of Californians would prefer to pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, while 40 percent prefer lower taxes and fewer services. Likely voters are divided (48% higher taxes/more services, 47% lower taxes/fewer services). Throughout 2012, t here has been a double -digit preference among Californians for higher taxes and more services. Democrats (69%) favor higher taxes and more services, while Republicans ( 73%) prefer lower taxes and fewer services. Independents (51%) somewhat prefer higher taxes and more services (44% prefer lower taxes/fewer services). Preference for higher taxes and more services declines as age and income increase. Latinos (66%) and Asians (54%) prefer higher taxes and more services while whites are divided (44% higher taxe s/more services, 48% lower taxes/fewer services). “In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more? I’d rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, or, I’d rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services.” All adults Age Race/ethnicity 18–34 35 –54 55 and older Asians Latinos Whites Higher taxes, more services 55% 60% 55% 48% 54% 66% 44% Lower taxes, fewer services 40 37 39 44 38 31 48 Don’t know 6 3 6 8 8 4 7 PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 11 PERCEPTIONS OF CALIFORNIA’S HIGHER EDUCATION SYSTEM Solid majorities of Californians think that affordability (65%) and the overall state budget situation (64%) are big problem s for California’s higher education system today. The share saying affordability is a big problem is at its highest today (53% 2007, 52% 2008, 57% 2009, 60% 2010, 61% 2011, 65% today). The share saying the overall state budget situation is a big problem for higher education peaked in 2010 (70% 2009, 74% 2 010, 69% 2011, 64% today) . However, the share holding this view today remains high despite passage of Proposition 30 , which averted trigger cuts to higher education. Forty -three percent say accessibility is a big problem, a 19 -point increase since 2007 (24%) when this question was last asked. “I’m going to read you a list of issues people have mentioned when talking about California’s higher education system today. For each one, please tell me if you think it is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem. How about…” The overall affordability of education for students? The overall state budget situation? The overall accessibility of education for students? Big problem 65% 64% 43% Somewhat of a problem 23 23 31 Not much of a problem 12 11 24 Don’t know 1 2 1 Democrats (73%) are more likely than Republicans (60%) and independents (63%) to say affordability is a big problem. Res idents in the Central Valley (72 %) and the San Francisco Bay Area (70%) are the most likely to say affordability is a big problem, followed by those in the Other Southern California reg ion (64%) and Los Angeles (60%) . Latinos (59%) are less likely than whites (67%) and Asians (70%) to say this . And t hose earning $80,000 or more are less likely than those with lower incomes to say this . Majorities of Democrats, independents (73% each), and Republicans (61%) say the overall state budget situation is a big problem for the higher education system. Asians (78%) are much more likely than whites (66%) and far more likely than Latinos (53%) to say this. Seven in 10 Californians earning $40,000 or more hold t his view, compared to six in 10 earning less than $40,000. Seven in 10 with at least some college education express this view, compared to 55 percent of those with a high school education only. Democrats (48%) are more likely than independents (42%) and Republicans (39%) to say accessibility is a big problem. Between 38 and 48 percent across regions and demographic groups hold this view . Percent saying big problem Overall affordability Overall state budget situation Overall accessibility All adults 65% 64% 43% Likely voters 68 70 45 Parents of children 18 or younger 63 59 41 Age 18–34 69 65 42 35–54 61 60 42 55 and older 67 69 47 Race/ethnicity Asians 70 78 48 Latinos 59 53 40 Whites 67 66 43 Household income Under $40,000 67 59 47 $40,000 to under $80,000 72 70 42 $80,000 or more 59 70 42 PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 12 EDUCATING CALIFORNIA’S FUTURE WORKFORCE A record-high 51 percent of parents of children age 18 or younger hope that their youngest child will attain a graduate degree , and another 36 percent hope for a four -year college degree. Fewer parents hope that their youngest achieves a high school education or l ess (4%), or completes a two-year college degree or career technical training (6%). Strong majorities of parents across income and racial/ethnic groups hope their youngest obtains at least a four -year degree; hopes for completing a graduate degree increase with income. Latino and white parents express similar views regarding college attainment. The share of Latino parents hoping for a graduate degree is up 17 points from November 2011 ( from 29% to 46% today). (The sample size for Asian parent s is too small for separate analysis.) Parents who are college graduates (60%) are more likely than those without a college degree (47%) to hope that their youngest child gets a graduate degree. “What do you hope will be the highest grade level that your youngest child will achieve: some high school; high school graduate; two-year community college graduate or career technical training; four-year college graduate; or a graduate degree after colle ge?” Parents of children 18 or younger All parents of children 18 or younger Income Race/ethnicity Under $40,000 $40,000 to $80,000 $80,000 or more Latinos Whites Some high school or high school graduate 4% 6% 7% 1% 7% – Two-year college or career technical training 6 10 4 2 8 7% Four- year college graduate 36 37 36 35 37 38 Graduate degree after college 51 44 51 63 46 51 Don’t know 2 2 2 1 1 3 Nearly all Californians say the state’s public higher education system is very (85%) or somewhat (11%) important to the quality of life and economic vitality of the state over the next 20 years. The share saying it is very important is at a record high today , although at least seven in 10 have held this view in previous surveys. Today, Democrats (92%) are much more likely than independents (79%) or Republicans (74%) to say the public higher education system is very important. Eighty -eight percent of parents with children age 18 or younger hold this view, as do 91 percent of public school parents. More than eight in 10 adults across regions, racial/ethnic, age, education, and income groups say the public higher education syste m is very important to the quality of life and economic vitality of the state over the next 20 years. Among those who think California will be a better place to live in 2025, 91 percent say the public higher education system is very important . Among those who say the state will be a worse place to live , 76 percent say it is very important . “In general, how important is California’s public higher education system to the quality of life and economic vitality of the state over the next 20 years?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Very important 85% 92% 74% 79% 84% Somewhat important 11 7 18 17 12 Not too important 1 1 4 2 2 Not at all important 1 – 3 1 2 Don’t know 1 – 1 1 – PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 13 EDUCATING CALIFORNIA’S FUTURE WORKFORCE (CONTINUED) A majority of Californians (56%) think that if current trends continue California will not have enough college- educated residents needed for the jobs and skills likely to be in demand in 20 years. Twenty- eight percent say there will be just enough and 14 percent say there will be more than enough college- educated residents in the state. The share who say the state will face a shortage is up slightly from last year but is the same as it was in 2010 (56% today, 49% 2011, 56% 2010, 49% 2009, 47% 2008, 52% 2007). Majorities across parties anticipate a shortage of college graduates (57% Democrats, 56% independents, 51% Republicans). San Francisco Bay Area residents (48%) are less likely to hold this view than those in other areas (55% Los Angeles, 56% Central Valley, 59% Other Southern California). Women (60%) are somewhat more likely than men (52%) to say there will be a shortage. Majorities across income, education , and racial/ethnic groups agree. Natur alized citizens (63%) and non-citizens (60%) are somewhat more likely to see a shortage than are U.S. natives (53%). Among those saying the higher education system is very important to the future vitality of the state, 59 percent see a future shortage. “In thinking ahead 20 years, if current trends continue, do y ou think California will hav e more than enough, not enough, or just enough college-educated residents needed for the jobs and skills likely to be in demand?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Not enough 56% 57% 51% 56% 55% Just enough 28 28 30 29 28 More than enough 14 11 16 11 13 Don’t know 2 3 3 3 3 Half of Californians have at least some confidence in the state government’s ability to plan for the future of California’s higher education system : 13 percent say they have a great deal of confidence and 37 percent have only some. The other half express very little (34%) or no confidence (15%) . Confidence was highest when we first asked this question in 2007 (57% great deal/only some). It dropped as low as 40 percent in 2010 but has increased since then (57% 2007, 52% 2008, 41% 2009, 40% 2010, 47% 2011, 50% today). A solid majority of Democrats (61%) express confidence in the state’s ability to handle this issue, compared to 47 percent of independents and 33 percent of Republicans. Asians (58%) and Latinos (54%) have more confidence than whites (44%). About half of those in other demographic groups and regions are at least somewhat confident, including public school parents and parents with children age 18 or younger (53% each). Among those who anticipate a shortage of college- educated workers, 45 percent have confidence and 54 percent do not. “How much confidence do you have in the state government’s ability to plan for the future of California’s higher education system— a great deal, only some, very little, or none?” All adults Party Likely v oters Dem Rep Ind A great deal 13% 19% 5% 5% 10% Only some 37 42 28 42 38 Very little 34 30 33 35 32 None 15 8 33 17 19 Don’t know 1 1 1 1 – PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 14 WATER SYSTEMS Six in 10 Californians think that the water supply in their part of California is a big (31%) or somewhat (28%) of a problem; 39 percent say it is not a problem. The share saying it is a big problem has declined 13 points since December 2009 (44%) when the state was in a drought. Those in the Central Valley (38%) and the Other Southern California region (35%) are more likely than r esidents in Los Angeles (27%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (20%) to say that the water supply in their area is a big problem. “Would you say that the supply of water is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem in your part of California? ” All adults Region Likely voters Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Other Southern California Big problem 31% 38% 20% 27% 35% 35% Somewhat of a problem 28 23 31 30 28 30 Not much of a problem 39 36 48 41 35 34 Don’t know 2 4 1 2 1 2 When presented with two approaches to managing the state’s water supply, 47 percent of Californians say the focus should be on building new water storage systems and increasing supply while 50 percent say it should be on conservation and using the current water supply more efficiently. Since this question was first asked in 2004, the margin of preference for conservation has narrowed (2004: 55% conservation vs. 41% storage; 2006: 54% vs. 41%; 2009: 50% vs. 43%; today: 50% vs. 47%). Six in 10 San Francisco Bay Area residents prefer conservation, while residents in other regions are more divided. Looked at another way, 60 percent of those living along the state’s north -central coast prefer conservation while those on the southern coast and inland are divided. Majorities of Democrats (54%) and independents (52%) prefer conservation, while Republicans (56%) prefer storage. Six in 10 Asians (59%) prefer conservation ; whites and Latinos are divided. Those saying water supply is a big problem prefer building new storage (55%) to conservation (41%). Those who say it is not a problem prefer conservation (57% ) to storage (41% ). “Which of the following statements is closer to your views about planning for the future in your p art of California? We should focus on building new water storage systems and increasing the water supply; or, We should focus on water conservation, user allocation, pricing, and other strategies to more efficiently use the current water supply.” All adults Region Likely voters Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Other Southern California New storage, increase supply 47% 49% 36% 51% 52% 45% Conservation, efficiency 50 46 61 48 46 50 Don’t know 3 5 3 2 2 5 Declining native fish populations ha ve been a point of contention in the debate about water management. A solid majority of Californians (61%) favor increasing state spending to improve conditions for native fish; 34 percent oppose this idea. Support drops to 39 per cent if increased spending means an increase in residents’ water bills . Solid majorities of Democrats and independent s favor increased spending (with support dropping to 41% for Democrats and 44% for independents if it means higher water bills) , while Republicans (52%) are opposed outright. Four in 10 across income groups are in favor even with increased water bills. San Francisco Bay Area residents (48%) are the most likely, and Central Valley residents (29%) the least likely, to be in favor even with higher bills. N orth-central coast residents (50%) are more likely to be in favor even if water bills increase than south coast (39%) and inland (30%) residents . Latinos (40%) and whites (43%) are much more likely than A sians (23%) to favor this idea. December 2012 Californians and the Future 15 FISCAL AND GOVERNANCE REFORMS KEY FINDINGS  The 2012 elections were the first to use new voting districts drawn by a citizens’ commission and the top- two primary system. Majorities of Californians and likely voters say these reforms have had a positive effect. (page 16 )  Californians are not enthusiastic about proposals to alter the legislative structure. They are divided about having a part -time legislature and slim majorities oppose a unicam eral or larger legislature. (page 17)  Consistent with previous surveys, strong majorities favor spending reforms: requiring new programs or tax cuts to identify a funding source (79%), increasing the rainy day fund (72%), and strictly limiting state spend ing increases (65%). (page 18)  Smaller majorities support a two -year budget cycle and lowering the majority required to pass local special taxes or state taxes. Voters are divided along party lines about lowering vote thresholds. (page 1 9)  Californians continue to be positive about Proposition 13, with 60 percent saying it has been a good thing for California. They are more divided about its effect on local government services. (page 20)  When it comes to expanding the tax base, a majority favor a “split roll ” property tax, while record -high majorities oppose extending the sale s tax to services and increasing the vehicle license fee. (page 21 )  Six in 10 say policy decisions made through th e initiative process are better than those made by the governor and legislature. They are divided about allowing elected officials to amend initiatives, but favor initiative renewal and increased public disclosure of initiative funders. (pages 22, 23 ) 57 29 20 36 65 79 0 20 40 60 80 Split rollproperty taxExtend salestax to servicesIncrease vehiclelicense fee Percent all adults Favor Oppose Expanding the Tax Base 565451 363943 0 20 40 60 80 Two-yearbudget55% to passlocal specialtaxes Simple majorityto pass statetaxes Percent all adults Good idea Bad idea Fiscal Reforms 79 72 65 13 21 28 0 20 40 60 80 Identify fundingsource fornew programs Increase rainyday fundStatespending limit Percent all adults Good idea Bad idea State Spending Reforms PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 16 RECENT ELECTORAL REFORMS The 2012 election cycle featured two key electoral reforms that were recently passed by voters. The passage of Proposition 11 in 2008 established a citizens’ commission to handle legislative redistricting rather than having the state legislature and governor make these decisions. When asked about the effect of passing Proposition 11 , majorities of Californians (58%) and likely voters (59%) say it turned out to be mostly a good thing for California. About one in five in each group say it has been a bad thing and about one in five are unsure. Majorities across parties say Proposition 11 turned out to be a good thing. Majorities across regions also agree that it has been good for the state; Central Valley residents (64%) are the most likely to hold this view, followed by those in the San Francisco Bay Area (61%), the Other Southern California region (58%), and Los Angeles (53%). Majorities across demographic groups see positive effects , although t he percentage expressing this view is hi ghest (63%) among those age 18– 34 (5 7% age 35 –54; 53% age 55 and older ). Those who approve of the governor and the legislature are much more likely than those who disapprove to say independent redistricting has been a good thing. “Proposition 11 is the 2008 ballot measure passed by voters that established a citizens’ commission to redraw the physical boundaries of the state’s voting districts rather than having the state legislature and governor make these redistricting decisions. Overall, do you feel that passing Proposition 11 turned out to be mostly a good thing for California or mostly a bad thing?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Mostly a good thing 58% 60% 55% 63% 59% Mostly a bad thing 21 18 26 18 21 Mixed (volunteered) 2 3 3 2 2 Don’t know 18 19 15 16 17 Proposition 14 , passed by voters in 2010 , changed the state’s partially closed primary system to a top - two system whereby voters cast primary ballots for any candidate regardless of party and the two candidates receiving the most votes advance to the general election. The June and November 2012 e lections were the first to use this system. Abo ut six in 10 Californians (63%) and likely voters (59%) say passing Proposition 14 has turned out to be mostly a good thing for California, while about one in four in each group consider it a bad thing and just over one in 10 are unsure. Although majorities across parties say it has been a good thing, Democrats (67%) and independents (66%) are much more likely than Republicans (52%) to hold this view. Across regions, more than six in 10 believe Proposition 14 has had a good effect. While majorities across demographic groups hold this view, the percentage is higher among those age 18– 34 (67%) and 35–54 (65%) than among those age 55 and older (54%) . Agai n those who approve of the governor and the legislature are much more likely than those who disapprove to see Proposition 14 as a good thing for the state. “Proposition 14 is the 2010 ballot measure passed by voters that changed California’s state primary elections from a partially closed system to a top- two primary system in which voters now cast primary election ballots for any candidate— regardless of party—and the two candidates receiving the most votes—regardless of party —advance to the general election . Overall, do you feel that passing Proposition 14 turned out to be mostly a good thing for California or mostly a bad thing?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Mostly a good thing 63% 67% 52% 66% 59% Mostly a bad thing 23 19 33 19 26 Mixed (volunteered) 2 2 2 1 2 Don’t know 13 12 13 13 13 PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 17 LEGISLATIVE REFORM PROPOSALS Several ideas about changing the legislative structure in California have been discussed over the years. One idea is to change the legislature from full- time to part-time status. Californians are divided about this idea (48% good idea, 45% bad idea) , as are likely voters (48% good idea, 43% bad idea). Californians were much more likely to say this was a bad idea (31% good, 58% bad) when this question was last aske d in September 2011. Opinions diverge across parties: Republicans (67%) are far more likely than independents (43%) and Democrats (38%) to say a part-time legislature would be a good idea . Central Valley (54%) and Other Southern California (53%) residents are more likely to consider a part -time legislature a good idea than Los Angeles (42%) and San Francisco Bay Area (41%) residents. Whites (53%) are more likely than either Latinos (45%) or Asians (31%) to say this is a good idea, and the share holding this view increases with age. Among those who disapprove of the legislature, 57 percent say part - time status is a good idea , compared with 42 percent of those who approve of the legis lature. “Other reforms have been proposed to address state governance issues. For each of the following, please say if you think the proposal is a good idea or a bad idea. How about changing the California Legislature from full -time status to part -time status?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Good idea 48% 38% 67% 43% 48% Bad idea 45 53 26 48 43 Don’t know 7 9 7 9 9 Californians (36% good idea, 51% bad idea) and likely voters (28% good, 58% bad) are more likely to say changing the legislature from two houses to a single house of 120 members is a bad idea than a good idea. Voters across parties are more likely to say t his is a bad idea than a good idea . Central Valley residents are divided about a unicameral legislature (45% good, 42% bad) ; residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (32% good , 50% bad), Los Angeles (35% good, 53% bad), and the Other Southern California reg ion (34% good, 5 6% bad) are more likely to consider it a bad idea than a good one. Latinos (46%) are more likely than whites (33%) or Asians (30%) to say a single house is a good idea. About four in 10 of both those who approve of the legislature and those who disapprove say this is a good idea. “How about changing the California L egislature from two houses—the 80-member state assembly and 40 -member state senate— to a single house with 120 members?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Good idea 36% 36% 27% 30% 28% Bad idea 51 50 60 57 58 Don’t know 13 14 13 12 15 Another reform idea is to increase the number of legislators so that each one represents fewer people. Californians are also more likely to say this is a bad idea (53%) than a good idea (40%). And among likely voters, nearly two in three consider this a bad idea (30% good, 64% bad). Majorities of Republicans (64%), Democrats (61%), and independents (59%) say increasing the number of legislators is a bad idea . Other Southe rn California (45%), Central Valley (43%), and Los Angeles (40%) residents are more likely than San Francisco Bay Area residents (34 %) to say this is a good idea. A majority of Latinos (53%) say good idea, while majorities of Asians (55%) and whites (59%) say bad idea. Among those who disapprove of the legislature, 59 percent say this is a bad idea. PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 18 STATE SPENDING REFORM PROPOSALS Strong majorities of Californians express support for a number of proposed state spending reforms. Two in three Californians and likely voters (65% each) say it is a good idea to strictly limit the amount by which state spending could increase each year. Since first asked about this idea in June 2003, majorities of Californians (ranging from a low of 53% in May 2007 to a high of 72% in May 2011) have said a state spending limit is a good idea. Across parties today, majorities consider a strict state spending limit a good idea, although Republicans (77%) are more likely to hold this view than independents (67%) or Democrats (56%). Majorities across regions and demographic g roups say this is a good idea. Support is highest among those in the Other Southern California region (71%), followed by those in the Central Valley (66%), Los Angeles (63%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (57%). Among those who general ly prefer paying lower taxes and having a state government that provides fewer services, 74 percent say a spending limit is a good idea. Those who disapprove of Governor Brown are much more likely than thos e who approve to consider a spending limit a good idea (77% to 59%), while among both those who approve (66%) and disapprove (70%) of the legislature, strong majorities say it is a good idea. Seven in 10 Californians (72%) and likely voters (70%) say it is a good idea to increase the size of the state’s rainy day fund and require above -average revenues to be deposited into it for use during economic downturns. Since we first asked this question in May 2010, at least 70 percent of adults have said increasing the rainy day fund is a good idea. Majorities across parties consider this a good idea, but Democrats and independents (74% each ) are much more likely than Republicans (61%) to hold this view. At least two in three across regions and demographic groups support increasing the rainy day fund . Those who prefer paying higher taxes for more state services are more likely than those who prefer smaller government to say a bigger rainy day fund is a good idea (77% to 66%). Those who approve of the governor and the legislature are more likely than those who disapprove to support a larger rainy day fund. S trong majorities of Californians (79%) and likely voters (82%) also support requiring any major new or expanded state programs or tax reductions to identify a speci fic funding source. Results among all adults were similar the previous time we asked this question in May 2010 (78% good idea). At least eight in 10 across parties say this “pay as you go” idea is a good one and more than seven in 10 across regions and dem ographic groups agree. Among both those who prefer a larger state government and those who prefer a smaller one, eight in 10 say it is a good idea. (The idea, known as “pay- go,” was a component of Proposition 31 on the November ballot, a measure that also included a two-year budget and other fiscal and governance reform s. Our pre -election surveys found a lack of understanding about Proposition 31 — with high percentages of “don’t knows” —and the measure ultimately failed.) “Fiscal reforms have been proposed to address the structural issues in the state budget and local budget issues. For each of the following, please say if you think the proposal is a good idea or a bad idea.” All a dults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind How about strictly limiting the amount of money that state spending could increase each year? Good idea 65% 56% 77% 67% 65% Bad idea 28 35 20 29 28 Don't know 7 9 3 5 7 How about increasing the size of the state's rainy day fund and requiring above-average revenues to be deposited into it for use during economic downturns? Good idea 72 74 61 74 70 Bad idea 21 19 31 20 23 Don't know 7 7 8 6 7 How about requiring that any major new or expanded state programs or tax reductions identify a specific funding source? Good idea 79 80 86 81 82 Bad idea 13 11 9 13 10 Don't know 8 10 5 6 7 PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 19 FISCAL REFORM PROPOSALS Smaller majorities of Californians —and even fewer likely voters —support three fiscal reforms that have been proposed to address structural issues in the state budget and local budget issues . A majority of adults (56%) and 49 percent of likely voters think it is a good idea to establish a two- year state budget cycle in place of the current one -year cycle (again, this was an element of Proposition 31) . Majorities of Democrats (55%) and independents (54%) say a two -year budget cycle is a good idea ; Republicans are evenly divided (44% good, 45% bad). Across regions, between 53 percent and 57 percent say it i s a good idea. There is a considerable difference of opinion among racial/ethnic groups: 67 percent of Latinos say a two -year budget cycle is a good idea , compared with 51 percent of whites and 47 percent of Asians. Majorities of those with only a high sch ool education (65%) and household incomes under $40,000 (61%) say this is a good idea , compared with fewer who have more education and household income. A proposal to lower the two- thirds vote requirement to a simple majority for the state legislature to pass state taxes is considered a good idea by 51 percent of Californians (43% bad idea) . (The two -thirds requirement was a component of Proposition 13 , which passed in 1978 ; many wonder if the legislature, with a new supermajority of Democrats , will seek t o change this rule. ) Among likely voters, 45 percent say a simple majority is a good idea and 51 percent think it is a bad idea. Partisans are divided about lowering the vote to pass taxes : 59 percent of Democrats say good idea while 66 percent of Republicans say bad idea. Independents are split (44% good, 50% bad) . Opposition to lowering the share of vote s required to pass taxes is higher among older residents and increase s with higher inc ome. Six in 10 who favor smaller government think it is a bad idea , while six in 10 who favor larger government say it is a good idea. Those who approve of the governor and legislature are more likely to support this idea than those who disapprove. A third proposal would lower the majority required for voters to pass local special taxes from two -thirds to 55 percent. ( The two-third s vote requirement was another component of Proposition 13. ) This would match the share of votes required to pass local school bonds (which voters lowered from two- thirds by approv ing Proposition 39 in 2000). A majority of adults (54%) say lowering the vote threshold to pass local special taxes is a good idea (39% say bad idea). Likely voters are more divided (50% good, 45% bad) . The share of adults saying good idea (54%) matches the previous finding in May 2011 and is a record high since this question was first asked in June 2003 (46% good, 45% bad). Voters today are divided along party lines (Democrats , 60% good; Republicans , 57% bad), with independents split. Across regions, between 53 percent and 58 percent support lowering the share of votes required to pass local special taxes. Support is higher among lower-income residents (61%) compared with middle- (53%) and higher -income (49%) residents and among Latinos (62%) compared with Asians (52%) and whites (50%). “Fiscal reforms have been proposed to address the structural issues in the state budget and local budget issues. For each of the following, please say if you think the prop osal is a good idea or a bad idea.” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind How about establishing a two -year state budget cycle rather than the one -year cycle we currently have? Good idea 56% 55% 44% 54% 49% Bad idea 36 36 45 37 41 Don't know 9 9 11 9 9 How about replacing the two -thirds vote requirement with a simple majority vote for the state legislature to pass state taxes? Good idea 51 59 31 44 45 Bad idea 43 34 66 50 51 Don't know 6 7 3 6 4 How about replacing the two -thirds vote requirement with a 55 -percent majority vote for voters to pass local special taxes? Good idea 54 60 39 47 50 Bad idea 39 34 57 48 45 Don't know 6 6 5 5 5 PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 20 PROPOSITION 13 There is talk periodically of changing the Proposition 13 property tax limits that voters approved in 1978. These discussions have resurfaced in the wake of the November election, which gave Democrats a two -thirds majority in the legislature and resulted in the passage of the Proposition 30 tax initiative. Californians remain highly positive in their assessment of the overall impact of Proposition 13. Six in 10 adults (60%) and 64 percent of likely voters say Proposition 13 has been mostly a good thing for California, while three in 10 adults (31%) and likely voters (29%) say Proposition 13 has been mostly a bad thing. Since we began asking this question in February 2003, m ajorities of adults have considered Proposition 13 mostly a good thing in all but one survey ( May 2005)—and even then a plurality (47% ) said good thing. Majorities across political groups today say that Proposition 13 is mostly a good thing, with Democrats (55%) less likely than indepe ndents (63%) and Republicans (79%) to hold thi s view. Majorities across political ideologies, regions, and demograph ic groups have a positive view, including m ost whites (68%), Asians (59%), and Latinos (55%) . “Proposition 13 is the 1978 ballot measure that limits the property tax rate to 1 percent of assessed value at time of purchase and annual tax increases to no more than 2 percent until the property is sold. Overall, do you feel passing Proposition 13 turned out to be mostly a good thing for California or mostly a bad thing?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Mostly a good thing 60% 55% 79% 63% 64% Mostly a bad thing 31 36 13 28 29 Mixed (volunteered) 1 2 1 1 1 Don’t know 7 7 6 9 6 O verall perceptions of the local impacts of Proposition 13 are mixed. A plurality of adults (36%) say that Proposition 13 has had no effect on local government services provided to residents in California ; similar proportions say that Proposition 13 has had a good effect (29%) and a bad effect (25%). While Democrats are more likely to say there have been bad effects than good effects, Republicans and independents are most likely to say there have been no effects (and they are more likely to say that the effects have been good than bad). Whites (33%) are more likely than Asians (26%) and Lat inos (25%) to say that Proposition 13 has had a good effect on local government services provided to California residents. Among those who say that Proposition 13 has been mostly a good thing, 41 percent say it has had no effect on local government services, 41 percent say it has had a good effect , and 12 percent say it has had a bad effect. Californians gave similarly mixed reviews of the local effect of Proposition 13 in March 2011, May 2008, and February 2003. In September 1998, 38 percent said its effect was good, 23 percent said bad, and 27 percent said it had no effect on local government services. In every survey, fewer than four in 10 adults have said its effect on local government services has been good. “Overall, do you think the property tax limitations imposed by Proposition 13 have had a good effect or a bad effect or no effect on local government services provided to residents in the state of California?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Good effect 29% 24% 37% 29% 30% Bad effect 25 35 12 22 26 No effect 36 28 42 40 32 Don’t know 10 13 9 9 11 PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 21 EXPANDING THE TAX BASE Proposition 13 limits both residential and commercial property taxes. Among the Proposition 13 reforms that have been proposed is the so-called split roll property tax, which would change the way commercial property taxes are assessed. This reform may be considered, given legislative Democrats’ new two -thirds majority . M ajorities of adults (57%) and likely voters (58%) favor having commercial properties taxed according to their current market value. The resu lts were similar in January 2012 (60% of adults and likely voters were in favor). In response to a similar question, majorities of adults said it is a good idea to tax commercial properties at their current value in five surveys conducted between February 2003 and September 2009. Today, m ajorities of Democrats and independents favor the proposal to change the taxes on commercial properties while Republicans are divided. Majorities across regions and demographic groups are in favor, but support varies widely between liberals (70%), moderates (57%) , and conservatives (47%). Of those who say that Proposition 13 has been mostly a bad thing for California, 5 9 percent favor and 36 percent oppose taxing commercial properties according to their current market value. Even among those who say Proposition 13 has been a good thing, 56 percent favor this change (39% oppose). “Under Proposition 13, residential and commercial property taxes are both strictly limited. What do you think about having commercial properties taxed according to their current market value? Do you favor or oppose this proposal?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Favor 57% 66% 47% 58% 58% Oppose 36 26 48 36 36 Don’t know 7 8 6 5 6 In the wake of the passage of the Proposition 30 tax initiative, how receptive are Californians to raising other taxes on themselves ? Strong majorities of adults (65%) and likely voters (68%) oppose extending the sales tax to services that are not currentl y taxed, while fewer than three in 10 are in favor. Nearly eight in 10 adults (79%) and likely voters (78%) are opposed to increasing the vehicle license fee while just two in 10 are in favor. Majorities across parties, regions, and demographic groups are opposed to extending the sales tax to services that are not currently taxed and increasing the vehicle license fee. Previous surveys have consistently shown that majorities of adults are opposed to extending the sales tax to services and increasing the vehicle license fee. Since these questions were last asked in May 2011, there has been a sharp increase in opposition to extending the sales tax ( from 54% to 65%) and increasing the vehicle license fee ( from 64% to 79%) . In fact, current opposition to taxing services matches the record high from May 2007 and opposition to increasing the vehicle license fee is at an historic high. Opposition to both proposals is also at record highs among likely voters. “New revenue sources have been proposed to address the state budget situation. For each of the following, please say if you favor or oppose the proposal.” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind How about extending the state sales tax to services that are not currently taxed? Favor 29% 36% 14% 27% 26% Oppose 65 56 83 64 68 Don't know 6 8 3 9 6 How about increasing the vehicle license fee? Favor 20 24 8 24 20 Oppose 79 74 91 74 78 Don't know 1 2 1 2 2 PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 22 INITIATIVE PROCESS The November 6 election in California included 11 state propositions that went to the ballot through the citizens’ initiative process. We asked the November election voters in our survey to assess the information they had to make ballot choices. Eight in 1 0 election voters say they were very (37%) or somewhat (43%) satisfied with the amount of information that they had about the propositions. Only two in 10 election voters report that they were not too (13%) or not at all (6%) satisfied. Most election voters across regions and demographic groups were at least somewhat satisfied with the information they had to make decisions. More Democrats than Republicans (43% to 30%) and more liberals than conservatives (41% to 34 %) say they were very satisfied. We also asked this question after the November 2008 election, when there were 12 state propositions on the ballot. A similar 84 percent of November election voters were either very (34%) or somewhat (50%) satisfied with the information they had in making decisions on ballot propositions. At least eight in 10 across political, regional, and demographic groups reported that they were at least somewhat satisfied. “Overall, how satisfied were you with the information you had to make choices on the ballot propositions?” Nov. 6 election voters only All Nov. 6 election voters Party Dem Rep Ind Very satisfied 37% 43% 30% 32% Somewhat satisfied 43 40 45 47 Not too satisfied 13 13 15 13 Not at all satisfied 6 4 9 7 Don’t know 1 1 1 – Another indication of Californians’ general satisfaction with the initiative process is their overall perception of its public policy consequences. About six in 10 adults (59%) and likely voters (59%) say that the public policy decisions made by California voters are probably better than those made by the governor and state legislature. Only one in four adults (26%) and likely voters (24%) say that California voters’ public policy decisions are probably worse than those made by the governor and state legisl ature. Majorities across political, regional, and demographic groups believe that the public policy decisions of California voters are probably better than those made by the governor and state legislature. Californians gave similarly positive responses in the May 2011 survey (62% better, 23% worse) as well as in every survey since we began asking this question in October 2000 (56% better, 24% worse). “Overall, do you think public policy decisions made through the initiative process by California voters are probably better or probably worse than public policy decisions made by the governor and state legislature?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Probably better 59% 64% 58% 61% 59% Probably worse 26 22 27 23 24 Same (volunteered) 4 2 7 6 6 Don’t know 11 12 8 10 11 PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 23 INITIATIVE REFORMS While the initiative process is consistently popular with Californians, some s ay that improvements are needed and a number of changes have been proposed over the past few years. We asked about three initiative reforms, and two had very strong support. Overwhelming majorities of adults (76%) and likely voters (86%) are in favor of requiring the yes and no campaigns for initiatives to increase disclosure of their contributors. Eight in 10 or more Democrats, Republicans, and independents support this type of initiative reform. Strong majorities across regional and demographic groups favor more disclosure of initiative cont ributors. When we asked a similar question in recent surveys, more than seven in 10 Californians favored increased public disclosure of funding sources for signature gathering and initiative campaigns. Strong majorities of adults (69%) and likely voters (66%) favor requiring voters to renew initiatives after a certain number of years by voting on them again. The level of support is similar among Democrats (68%) , Republicans (66%), and independents (71%). Strong majorities across regions and demographic groups favor the idea of requiring voters to renew initiatives after a certain number of years by voting on them again. Fewer than half of adults (48%) are in favor and 45 percent are opposed to allowing th e legislature, with the governor’s approval, to amend initiatives after a certain number of years. More than half of likely voters are opposed (40% favor, 55% oppose). While a majority of Democrats (54%) are in favor of this reform, a strong majority of Republicans (68%) are opposed, and independents are divided (46% favor, 48% oppose). This proposal to allow the legislature to amend initiatives after a certain number of years receives majority support among the following groups: adults under 35 (58%), liberals (57%), San Francisco Bay Area residents (55%), Latinos (53%), renters (53%), those with annual household incomes b elow $40,000 (52%), those with a high school education or less (52%), and Asians (51%). A majority of those who approve of the job perfor mance of the governor (55%) and the legislature (61%) support this change, while majorities of those who disapprove of the governor (61%) and the state legislature (58%) oppose it . When we asked a similar question about the legislature amending initiatives after six years, h alf of Californians were opposed in both October 2005 (37% favor, 51% oppose) and October 1998 (44% favor, 49 % oppose). “Reforms have been suggested to address issues that arise in Californ ia’s initiative process. Please say whether you would favor or oppose each of the following reform proposals. How about…” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Requiring the yes and no campaigns for initiatives to increase disclosure of their contributors? Favor 76% 83% 80% 85% 86% Oppose 18 13 16 10 11 Don't know 6 4 4 4 4 Requiring voters to renew initiatives after a certain number of years, by voting on them again? Favor 69 68 66 71 66 Oppose 27 28 31 28 30 Don't know 4 4 3 1 3 Allowing the legislature, with the governor’s approval, to amend initiatives after a certain number of years? Favor 48 54 28 46 40 Oppose 45 39 68 48 55 Don't know 7 7 4 5 5 December 2012 Californians and the Future 24 REGIONAL MAP December 2012 Californians and the Future 25 METHODOLOGY The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance from Sonja Petek, project manager for this survey, and survey research associates Dean Bonner and Jui Shrestha. This survey, Californians and the Future, was supported with funding from the S.D. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation, The San Francisco Foundation, The David and Susan Coulter Family Foundation, and the Walter S. Johnson Foundation . We benefit from discussions with PPIC staff, foundation staff, and other policy experts, but the methods, questions, and content of this report were determined solely by Mark Baldassare and the survey team. Findings in this report are based on a survey of 2,001 California adult residents, including 1,601 interviewed on landline telephones and 40 0 interviewed on cell phones. Interviews took an average of 20 minutes to complete. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights from November 13– 20, 2012. Landline interviews were conducted using a computer -generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephon e exchanges in California were eligible for selection, and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as six times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Cell phones were included in this survey to account for the growing number of Californians who use them. These interviews were conducted using a computer -gen erated random sample of cell phone numbers. All cell phone numbers with California area codes were eligible for selection, and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as eight times to increase the likelihood of reaching an eligible respondent. Once a cell phone user was reached, it was verified that this person was age 18 or older, a resident of California, and in a safe place to continue the survey (e.g., not driving). Cell phone respondents were offered a small reimbursement to help defray the cost of the call. Cell phone interviews were conducted with adults who have cell phone service only and with those who have both cell phone and landline service in the household. Live landline and cell phone interviews were conducted by Abt SRBI, Inc., in English and Spanish, according to respondents’ preferences. Accent on Languages, Inc., translated new survey questions into Spanish, with assistance from Renatta DeFever. With assistance from Abt SRBI we used data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2007– 2009 American Community Survey (ACS) through the University of Minnesota’s Integrated Public Use Microdata Series for California to compare certain demographic characteristics of the survey sample— region, age, gender, race/ethnicity, and education— with the characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the ACS figures. Abt SRBI used data from the 2008 National Health Interview Survey and data from the 2007– 2009 ACS for California both to estimate landline and cell p hone service in California and to compare the data against landline and cell phone service reported in this survey. We also used voter registration data from the California Secretary of State to compare the party registration of registered voters in our sa mple to party registration statewide. The landline and cell phone samples were then integrated using a frame integration weight, while sample balancing adjusted for differences across regional, age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, telephone service, and party registration groups. PPIC Statewide Survey December 2012 Californians and the Future 26 The sampling error, taking design effects from weighting into consideration, is ±3.5 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total sample of 2,001 adults. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be with in 3.5 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger: For the 1,3 34 registered voters, it is ±3.7 percent; for the 1,025 likely voters, it is ±4 percent; for the 1,172 registered voters who say they voted in the November 6th election, it is ±3.8%; for the 778 parents of children 18 or younger, it is ±5.9 percent . Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. We present results for four geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, and “Other Southern California” includes Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. Residents of other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, likely voters, November 6 voters, and parents, but sample sizes for these less populated areas are not large enough to report separately. Within coastal counties, the “north/central coast” region refers to the counties along the California coast northward from San Luis Obispo County to Del Norte County and includes all the San Francisco Bay Area counties. The “south coast” region includes Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego Counties. All other counties are included in the “i nland” region. We present specific results for non- Hispanic whites and for Latinos, who account for about a third of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest -growing voter groups. We also present results for non -Hispanic Asians, who m ake up about 14 percent of the state’s adult population. Results for other racial/ethnic groups —such as non -Hispanic blacks and Native Americans —are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, likely voters, November 6 voters, and p arents, but sample sizes are not large enough for separate analysis. We compare the opinions of those who report they are registered Democrats, registered Republicans, and decline -to -state or independent voters; the results for those who say they are registered to vote in other parties are not large enough for separate analysis. We also analyze the responses of likely voters —so designated by their responses to voter registration survey questions, previous election participation, and current interest in politics. The percentages presented in the report tables and in the questionnaire may not add to 100 due to rounding. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey results to those in our earlier surveys . Additional details about our methodology can be found at www.ppic.org/content/other/SurveyMethodology.pdf and are available upon request through surveys@ppic.org . December 2012 Californians and the Future 27 QUESTIONNAIRE AND RESULTS CALIFORNIANS AND THE FUTURE November 13–20, 2012 2,001 California Adult Residents: English, Spanish MARGIN OF ERROR ±3.5% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100 DUE TO ROUNDING 1. First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today? [code, don’t read] 53% jobs, economy 13 education, schools 10 state budget, deficit, taxes 4 immigration, illegal immigration 3 crime, gangs, drugs 2 health care, health costs 12 other 3 don’t know 2. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California? 48% approve 35 disapprove 17 don’t know 3. Overall, from what you know, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Brown is handling plans and policies for California’s future? 46% approve 38 disapprove 16 don’t know 4. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job? 34% approve 51 disapprove 15 don’t know 5. Overall, from what you know, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling plans and policies for California’s future? 32% approve 53 disapprove 15 don’t know 6. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 44% right direction 50 wrong direction 6 don’t know 7. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 41% good times 50 bad times 9 don’t know 8. Overall, do you think that in 2025 California will be a better place to live than it is now or a worse place to live than it is now or will there be no change? 42% better place 28 worse place 23 no change 8 don’t know [questions 9 to 11 not asked] PPIC Statewide Survey December 2012 Californians and the Future 28 12. Next, do you think the state budget situati on in California —that is, the balance between government spending and revenues —is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today? 68% big problem 26 somewhat of a problem 4 not a problem 2 don’t know 12a.As you may know, voters passed Proposition 30 on the November 6th ballot. Proposition 30 will increase taxes on earnings over $250,000 for seven years and sales taxes by ¼ cent for four years, to fund schools, and it guarantees public safety realignmen t funding. Does the passage of Proposition 30 make you more optimistic about the state’s budget situation, more pessimistic, or does this not change the way you feel about California’s budget situation? 46% more optimistic 23 more pessimistic 28 does not change the way I feel 3 don’t know 13. In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more — [rotate ] (1) I’d rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, [ or ] (2) I’d rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services? 55% higher taxes and more services 40 lower taxes and fewer services 6 don’t know Fiscal reforms have been proposed to address the structural issues in the state budget and local budget issues. For each of the following, please say if you think the proposal is a good idea or a bad idea. [ rotate questions 14 to 19] 14. How about strictly limiting the amount of money that state spending could increase each year? 65% good idea 28 bad idea 7 don’t know 15. How about increasing the size of the state's rainy day fund and requiring above -average revenues to be deposited into it for use during economic downturns? 72% good idea 21 bad idea 7 don’t know 16. How about replacing the two -thirds vote requirement with a simple majority vote for the state legislature to pass state taxes? 51% good idea 43 bad idea 6 don’t know 17. How about establishing a two -year state budget cycle rather than the on e-year cycle we currently have? 56% good idea 36 bad idea 9 don’t know 18. How about requiring that any major new or expanded state programs or tax reductions identify a specific funding source? 79% good idea 13 bad idea 8 don’t know 19. How about replacing the two -thirds vote requirement with a 55 -percent majority vote for voters to pass local special taxes? 54% good idea 39 bad idea 6 don’t know PPIC Statewide Survey December 2012 Californians and the Future 29 Other reforms have been proposed to address state governance issues. For each of the following, please say if you think the proposal is a good idea or a bad idea. [rotate questions 20 to 22] 20. How about changing the California L egislature from full-t ime status to part-time status? 48% good idea 45 bad idea 7 don’t know 21. How about changing the California L egislature from two houses —the 80 - member state assembly and 40 -member state senate —to a single house with 120 members? 36% good idea 51 bad idea 13 don’t know 22. How about increasing the number of legislators in the California L egislature so that each member represents fewer people? 40% good idea 53 bad idea 7 don’t know On another topic… [rotate questions 23 and 24] 23. Proposition 11 is the 2008 ballot measure passed by voters that established a citizens’ commission to redraw the physical boundaries of the state’s voting districts rather than having the state legislature and governor make these redistricting decisions. Overall, do you feel that passing Proposition 11 turned out to be mostly a good thing for California or mostly a bad thing? 58% mostly a good thing 21 mostly a bad thing 2 mixed (volunteered) 18 don’t know 24. Proposition 14 is the 2010 ballot measure passed by voters that changed California’s state primary elections from a partially closed system to a top -two primary system in which voters now cast primary election ballots for any candidate —regardless of party —and the two candidates receiving the most votes —regardless of party —advance to the general election. Overall, do you feel that passing Proposition 14 turned out to be mostly a good thing for California or mostly a bad thing? 63% mostly a good thing 23 mostly a bad thing 2 mixed (volunteered) 13 don’t know [questions 25 and 26 not asked ] New revenue sources have been proposed to address the state budget situation. For each of the following, please say if you favor or oppose the proposal. [ rotate questions 27 and 28] 27. How about extending the state sales tax to services that are not currently taxed? 29% favor 65 oppose 6 don’t know 28. How about increasing the vehicle license fee? 20% favor 79 oppose 1 don’t know PPIC Statewide Survey December 2012 Californians and the Future 30 29. Next, Proposition 13 is the 1978 ballot measure that limits the property tax rate to 1 percent of assessed value at time of purchase and annual tax increases to no more than 2 percent until the property is sold. Overall, do you feel passing Proposition 13 turned out to be mostly a good thing for California or mostly a bad thing? 60% mostly a good thing 31 mostly a bad thing 1 mixed (volunteered) 7 don’t know 30. And, over all, do you think the property tax limitations imposed by Proposition 13 have had a good effect or a bad effect or no effect on local government services provided to residents in the state of California? 29% good effect 25 bad effect 36 no effect 10 don’t know 31. Under Proposition 13, residential and commercial property taxes are both strictly limited. What do you think about having commercial properties taxed according to their current market value? Do you favor or oppose this proposal? 57% favor 36 oppose 7 don’t know Changing topics, I’m going to read you a list of issues people have mentioned when talking about California’s public higher education system today. For each one, please tell me if you think it is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem. First… [rotate questions 32 to 34] 32. How about the overall accessibility of education for students in California’s public c olleges and universities today? 43% big problem 31 somewhat of a problem 24 not much of a problem 1 don’t know 33. How about the overall affordability of education for students in California’s public colleges and universities today? 65% big problem 23 somewhat of a problem 12 not much of a problem 1 don’t know 34. How about the overall state budget s ituation for California’s public c olleges and universities today? 64% big problem 23 somewhat of a problem 11 not much of a problem 2 don’t know 35. In general, how important is California’s public higher education system to the quality of life and economic vitality of the state over the next 20 years —very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 85% very important 11 somewhat important 1 not too important 1 not at all important 1 don’t know 36. In thinking ahead 20 years, if current trends continue, do you think California will have [ rotate 1 and 2] (1) more than enough, (2) not enough, [ or ] just enough college- educated residents needed for the jobs and skills likely to be in demand? 14% more than enough 56 not enough 28 just enough 2 don’t know PPIC Statewide Survey December 2012 Californians and the Future 31 37. How much confidence do you have in the state government’s ability to plan for the future of California’s public higher education system —a great deal, only some, very little, or none? 13% a great deal 37 only some 34 very little 15 none 1 don’t know 38. On another topic, would you say that the supply of water is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem in your part of California? 31% big problem 28 somewhat of a problem 39 not much of a problem 2 don’t know 39. Which of the following statements is closer to your views about planning for the future in your part of California? [ rotate ] (1) We should focus on building new water storage systems and increasing the water supply; [ or ] (2) We should focus on water conservation, user allocation, pricing, and other strategies to more efficiently use the current water supply. 47% building new water storage systems 50 more efficiently use the current water supply 3 don’t know 39a. As you may know, California’s native fish populations, including salmon and steelhead trout, have been declining statewide. Do you favor or oppose increasing state spending to improve conditions for native fish? [ i f favor, ask: Do you still favor this if it means an increase in residents’ water bills?] 39% favor, even if it increases residents’ water bills 22 favor, but not if it increases residents’ water bills 34 oppose 6 don’t know 40. Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote in California? 67% yes [ask q40a] 33 no [skip to q43 ] 40a.Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or are you registered as a decline -to -state or independent voter? 45% Democrat [ask q41] 31 Republican [skip to q42 ] 3 another party (specify) [skip to q44] 21 independent [skip to q43] 41. Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 60% strong 38 not very strong 2 don’t know [skip to q 44] 42. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 54% strong 44 not very strong 2 don’t know [skip to q4 4] 43. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republ ican Party or Democratic Party? 23% Republican Party 55 Democratic Party 17 neither (volunteered) 5 don’t k now PPIC Statewide Survey December 2012 Californians and the Future 32 Now, thinking about the November 6th election, the ballot included 11 state propositions. 44. [Nov. 6 election voters only] Overall, how satisfied were you with the information you had to make choices on the ballot propositions —very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, not too satisfied, or not at all satisfied? 37% very satisfied 43 somewhat satisfied 13 not too satisfied 6 not at all satisfied 1 don’t know 45. Overall, do you think public policy decisions mad e through the initiative process by California voters are probably better or probably worse than public policy decisions made by the governor and state legislature? 59% probably better 26 probably worse 4 same (volunteered) 11 don’t know Reforms have been suggested to address issues that arise in California’s initiative process. Please say whether you would favor or oppose each of the following reform proposals. [rotate questions 46 to 47a] 46. How about requiring voters to renew initiati ves after a certain number of years, by voting on them again? 69% favor 27 oppose 4 don’t know 47. How about allowing the legislature, with the governor’s approval, to amend initiatives after a certain number of years? 48% favor 45 oppose 7 don’t know 47a. How about requiring the yes and no campaigns for initiatives to increase di sclosure of their contributors? 76% favor 18 oppose 6 don’t know 48. Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [ read list, rotate order top to bottom ] 11% very liberal 20 somewhat liberal 29 middle -of -the -road 23 somewhat conservative 14 very conservative 2 don’t know 49. Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics —a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 24% great deal 38 fair amount 33 only a little 5 none – don’t know [d1-d4a : demographic questions] d4b. [parents of children 18 or younger only] What do you hope will be the highest grade level that your youngest child will achieve: some high school; high school graduate; two -year community college graduate or career technical training; four -year college graduate; or a graduate degree after college? 2% some high school 2 high school graduate 6 two-year community college graduate or career technical training 36 four -year college graduate 51 a graduate degree after college 2 don’t know [d5-d16: demographic questions] PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ruben Barrales President and CEO San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce Angela Blackwell Founder and CEO PolicyLink Mollyann Brodie Senior Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Bill Lane Center for the American West Stanford University James E. Canales President The James Irvine Foundation Jon Cohen Director of Polling The Washington Post Russell Hancock President and CEO Joint Venture Silicon Valley Network Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Robert Lapsley President California Business Roundtabl e Carol S. Larson President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Monica Lozano Publisher and CEO La Opinión Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Lisa Pitney Vice President, Government Relations The Walt Disney Company Dan Rosenheim News Director KPIX -TV Robert K. Ross, M.D. President and CEO The California Endowment Most Reverend Jaime Soto Bishop of Sacramento Roman Catholic Diocese of Sacramento Cathy Taylor Vice President and Editorial Commentary Director Orange County Register Carol Whiteside President Emeritus Great Valley Center The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PPIC BOARD OF DIRECTORS Gary K. Hart, Chair Former State Senator and Secretary of Education State of California Mark Baldassare President and CEO Public Policy Institute of Californi a Ruben Barrales President and CEO San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce Marí a Blanco Vice President, Civic Engagement California Community Foundation Brigitte Bren Attorney Robert M. Hertzberg Vice Chair man Mayer Brown, LLP Walter B. Hewlett Chair, Board of Directors William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs David Mas Masumoto Author and Farmer Steven A. Merksamer Senior Partner Nielsen, Merksamer, Parrinello, Gross & Leoni , LLP Kim Polese Chairman ClearStreet, Inc. Thomas C. Sutton Retired Chairman and CEO Pacific Life Insurance Company The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research on major economic, social, and political issues. The institute’s goal is to raise public awareness and to give elected representatives and other decisionmakers a more informed basis for developing policies and programs. The institute’s research focuses on the underlying forces shaping California’s future, cutting across a wide range of public policy concerns, including economic development, education, environment and resources, governance, population, public finance, and social and health policy. PPIC is a private operating foundation. It does not take or support positions on any ballot measures or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. PPIC was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. Mark Baldassare is President and CEO of PPIC. Gary K. Hart is Chair of the Board of Directors. Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source and the copyright notice below is included. Copyright © 201 2 Public Policy Institute of California All rights reserved. San Francisco, CA PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, California 94111 phone : 415.291.4400 fax: 415.291.4401 PPIC SACRAMENTO CENT ER Senator Office Building 1121 L Street, Suite 801 Sacramento, California 95814 phone: 916.440.1120 fax: 916.440.1121 www.ppic.org survey@ppic.org" } ["___content":protected]=> string(104) "

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" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(107) "https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-the-future-december-2012/s_1212mbs/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(8856) ["ID"]=> int(8856) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:41:29" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(4256) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(9) "S 1212MBS" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(9) "s_1212mbs" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(13) "S_1212MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "504784" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(92764) "CONTENTS About the Survey 2 Press Release 3 Planning for the Future 6 Fiscal and Governance Reforms 15 Regional Map 24 Methodology 25 Questionnaire and Results 27 the future DECEMBER 2012 & P P I C S TAT E W I D E S U R V E Y Californians Mark Baldassare Dean Bonner Sonja Petek Jui Shrestha in collaboration with S.D. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation and The San Francisco Foundation December 2012 Californians and the Future 2 ABOUT THE SURVEY The PPIC Statewide Sur vey provides policymakers, the media, and the public with objective, advocacy- free information on the perceptions, opinions, and public policy preferences of California residents. This is the 130th PPIC Statewide Sur vey in a series that was inaugurated in April 1998 and has generated a database of responses from more than 274,000 Californians. The current survey, Californians and the Future , is a special survey examining residents’ outlook on the future, including recent electoral reforms, potential fiscal, governance, and initiative reforms, the passage of Proposition 30, the state’s public higher education system, water policy , and elected officials’ handling of plans and policies for the state’s future. The sur vey is suppor ted with funding from the S.D. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation, The San Francisco Foundation, The David and Susan Coulter Family Foundation, and the Walter S. Johnson Foundation. This sur vey began the week after the presidential election, in a decidedly changed political and fiscal atmosphere. Voters had just passed a tax increase (Proposition 30, promoted by Governor Brown) and another measure that will likely increase the income taxes paid by multistate corporations (Proposition 39). It was the first general election that involved the “top two” candidate system and voting districts drawn by a citizens’ commission. And, impor tantly, voters ushered in a two- thirds majority for Democrats in the state assembly and state senate. How Democrats will use this new power remains to be seen. On the second day of inter viewing, the state’s legislative analyst announced a much improved fiscal outlook for the state, thanks to the expected revenues from Proposition 30 and a recovering economy, but still projected a budget deficit of $1.9 billion for the next fiscal year. This sur vey presents the responses of 2,001 adult residents throughout the state, inter viewed in English or Spanish by landline or cell phone. It includes findings on these topics:  Planning for the future, including Californians’ future and current outlook; approval ratings of the governor and legislature overall and on their handling of plans and policies for the state’s future; how the passage of Proposition 30 affects residents’ budget outlook; perceptions of the state’s public higher education system and the impor tance of educating California’s future workforce; and perceptions of water supply and preferences for water policy .  Fiscal and governance reforms, including perceived effects of recent electoral reforms (the top- two primar y system and inde pendent redistricting); attitudes toward legislative reforms (par t - time legislature, single -house legislature, larger legislature), spending reforms (state spending limit, increasing the rainy day fund, requiring new programs and tax reductions to identify a funding source); and fiscal reforms (two -year budget, simple legisla tive majority to pass state taxes, 55 percent majority to pass local special taxes); attitudes toward Proposition 13; suppor t for expanding the tax base (split -roll proper ty tax, assessing sales tax on ser vices, increasing the vehicle license fee) ; and attitudes toward the citizens’ initiative process , including suppor t for reforms .  Time trends and the extent to which Californians may differ in their perceptions, attitudes, and preferences based on political par ty affiliation, likelihood of voting, region of residence, race/ethnicity, and other demographics. This repor t may be downloaded free of charge from our website ( www.ppic.org). If you have questions about the sur vey, please contact sur vey@ppic.org . Tr y our PPIC Statewide Sur vey interactive tools online at http://www.ppic.org/main/sur vAdvancedSearch.asp. PPIC Statewide Survey December 2012 Californians and the Future 5 reforms, 58 percent say Proposition 11 turned out to be mostly a good thing for the state (21% mostly a bad thing, 18% don’t know) and 63 percent say this about Proposition 14 (23% mostl y a bad thing, 13% don’t know). The results underscore Californians’ faith in their own decisionmaking, Baldassare notes: “Most Californians are happy with the initiative process and the outcomes of the fiscal and governance changes that voters enacted at the ballot box —from Proposition 13 in 1978 to legislative redistricting, the top -two primary system, and Proposition 30 in November.” In another indication of their view of initiatives, majorities (59% adults, 59% likely voters) say the public policy decis ions voters make through this process are probably better than those made by the governor and state legislature. Most have held this view since PPIC began asking the question in 2000. There is, however, support for two proposed reforms to the initiative process. Overwhelming majorities (76% adults, 86% likely voters) favor requiring the “yes” and “no” campaigns for initiatives to increase disclosure of their contributors. Strong majorit ies (69% adults, 66% likely voters) favor requiring voters to renew initiatives after a certain number of years by voting on them again. Both of these proposals have majority support across parties, regions, and demographic groups. A third proposed reform fares less well: allowing the legislature, with the governor’s approval, to amend initiatives after a certain number of years. About half of adults (48%) favor this idea, while more than half of likely voters (55%) are opposed. There is much less enthusia sm for three proposals to change the legislative structure. Adults are divided on whether to change the legislature from full -time to part -time status, with 48 percent calling it a good idea and 45 percent saying it’s a bad one. They oppose changing the legislature from two houses to a single house of 120 members (36% good idea, 51% bad idea). Residents also oppose simply increasing the number of legislators so that each represents fewer constituents (40% good idea, 53% bad idea). CONCERNED ABOUT COLLEGE COSTS, ACCESSIBILITY Nearly all Californians say the state’s public higher education system is very important (85%) or somewhat important (11%) to the quality of life and economic vitality of the state over the next 20 years. Yet they express growing concern about the system . The share of adults who say affordability is a big problem is at a new high of 65 percent, up 13 points since 2008. And 43 percent say overall accessibility is a big problem, an increase of 19 points since 2007. Despite passage of Prop osition 30— which averted trigger cuts to higher education—64 percent say the state budget situation is a big problem for higher education. These concerns come at a time when a record-high 51 percent of parents of children age 18 or younger say they hope their youngest child will attain a graduate degree. How much confidence do residents have in the state government to plan for the future of higher education? Half have at least some confidence (13% a great deal of confidence, 37% only some confidence). The other half have very little (34%) or none (15%). DIVIDED ON WATER POLICY PRIORITIES Most Californians think that the supply of water is a big problem (31%) or somewhat of one (28%) in their part of the state. The share of those calling this a big problem has declined 13 points since December 2009 (44%), when the state was in a drought. Residents of the Central Valley (38%) are the most likely to say the supply in their area is a big problem, while those in the San Francisco Bay Area (20%) are the least like ly. When presented with two approaches to manage the water supply, 47 percent say the focus should be on building new water storage systems and increasing supply, while 50 percent say it should be on conservation and using the current water supply more eff iciently. And, with declining fish populations a contentious topic, 61 percent of Californians favor increasing state spending to improve conditions for native fish. But that support drops to 39 percent if this would mean an incr ease in residential water b ills. December 2012 Californians and the Future 6 PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE KEY FINDINGS  Looking ahead to 2025, a plurality of Californians (42%) say the state will be a better place to live than it is now. This is a remarkable increase in optimism since June 2004 (25%). ( page 7)  Despite ongoing economic concerns, the sense that the state is headed in the right direction (44%) is at its highest level since before the recession. (page 8)  In the wake of a successful Proposition 30 campaign, Governor Brown’s job ap proval ratings are at a record high among all adults (48% ) and likely voters (49%). The l egislature receives its highest marks (34%) since January 2008. ( page 9)  A plurality of all adults and likely voters (46% each ) say that the passage of Proposition 30 makes them more optimistic about the budget situation. About one in four are more pessimistic. Voters are divided along party lines. (page 1 0)  Concerns about college affordability in California continue to grow, and the share saying accessibility is a big problem has jumped 19 points since 2007. ( page 11)  Most parents want their children to attend college, with a record 51 percent hoping for graduate school. Californians consider the state’s public higher education system ver y important and anticipate a shortage of college -educated workers in the future. Half are confident that state leaders can plan for the system’s future. ( pages 12, 13 )  On water policy, six in 10 say water supply in their part of the state is at least somewhat of a problem . On water supply management, Californians are divided between storage and conservation. ( page 14) 34 424142403941 48 2423262525253034 0 20 40 60 80 Mar11May11Sep11Dec11Mar12May12Sep12Dec12 Percent all adults Governor Brown California Legislature Approval Ratings of State Elected Officials 25 42 49 28 2023 0 20 40 60 80 June2004Dec2012 Percent all adults Better place Worse place No change California as a Place to Live in 2025 535257606165 24 43 0 20 40 60 80 100 Oct07Nov08Nov09Nov10Nov11Dec12 Percent all adults Affordability Accessibility Percent saying "Big Problem" for the Public Higher Education System PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 7 FUTURE OUTLOOK How do Californians view the future ? Four in 10 adults (42%), likely voters (40%), and parents of children age 18 or younger (40%) say that California will be a better place to live in 2025 than it is now. Fewer say it will be a worse place (28% adults, 35% likely voters, 26% parents). In June 2004, positive perception s about the future were held by fewer California adults (25%), likely voters (24 %), and parents (28%). Across parties, Democrats (57%) and independents (43%) think California in 2025 will be a better place, but a majority of Republicans (54%) say it will be worse. Across regions and demographic groups, optimists clearly outweigh pessimists —except among whites , those age 55 and older, and those with household incomes of $80,000 or more. Since 2004 there have been double -digit incre ases across party, region, and demographic groups (except Republicans) in the view that California will be a better place in 2025 . This perception has increased 34 points among Democrats and 17 points among independents, while Republican views are relative ly unchanged (down 2 points). Other notable increases have occurred among those with incomes of $40,000 to $80,000 (up 22 points since 2004 ), residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (up 21 points), those age 18 to 34 (up 21 points), college graduates (up 20 points) , and women (up 19 points). Among those who think California is currently heading in the right direction, 61 percent say it will be a better place in 2025; among those who think California is going in the wrong direction, 23 percent are optimisti c about 2025 . “Overall, do you think that in 2025 California will be a better place to live than it is now or a worse place to live than it is now or will there be no change?” Better place Worse place No change Don’t know All adults 42% 28% 23% 8% Likely voters 40 35 18 8 Parents of children 18 or younger 40 26 25 9 Party Democrats 57 17 17 9 Republicans 23 54 17 6 Independents 43 26 25 7 Gender Men 39 30 21 9 Women 44 25 25 6 Race/ethnicity Asians 41 28 20 11 Latinos 47 18 30 5 Whites 37 37 18 8 Region Central Valley 41 27 24 8 San Francisco Bay Area 45 24 23 8 Los Angeles 42 25 26 7 Other Southern California 39 31 20 10 Age 18–34 48 20 28 5 35–54 40 29 22 9 55 and older 36 35 19 10 Household income Under $40,000 44 21 29 6 $40,000 to under $80,000 46 30 19 5 $80,000 or more 35 34 18 12 PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 8 CURRENT OUTLOOK Given Californians’ optimism about the future , how do they view the direction the state is currently heading? Forty -four percent of Californians say the state is going in the right direction, while half say it is headed in the wrong direction. The percentage saying the state is heading in the right direction today is similar to October 2012 (39%) and is the highest it has been since June 2007 (44%). Across parties , this view is held by 61 percent of Democrats ; 80 percent of Republicans and 55 percent of independents say the state is headed in the wrong direction. Just over half of Latinos (54%) and Asians (51%) think the state is headed in the right direction, while six in 10 whites (60%) say it is headed in the wrong direction. Optimism about the direction of the state is higher among those with house hold incomes under $40,000 (50%) than among others (42% $40,000 to $80,000; 39% $80,000 or more) . Optimism declines with age. “Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?” All adults Age Race/ethnicity 18–34 35 –54 55 and older Asians Latinos Whites Right direction 44% 50% 45% 37% 51% 54% 36% Wrong direction 50 44 50 57 43 38 60 Don’t know 6 6 5 6 6 8 4 When asked what they think is the most important issue facing people in California today, 53 percent of Californians mention the economy and jobs . Far fewer mention education or schools (13%) or the state budget, deficit, or taxes (10%). The economy is the top issue mentioned across all political, regional, and demog raphic groups. Education and schools is named by twice as many Californians ages 18 to 34 as by those age s 35 and older. Whites (16%) and Asians (12%) are more likely than Latinos (3%) to mention the state budget as the top issue . Concerns about the econom y are much higher among lower - and middle -income residents (58% each) than among higher-income residents (43%). “Thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today? Top three issues mention ed All adults Age Race/ethnicity 18–34 35 –54 55 and older Asians Latinos Whites Economy, jobs 53% 47% 58% 54% 55% 57% 48% Education, schools 13 20 9 10 12 12 14 State budget, deficit, taxes 10 7 12 12 12 3 16 Californians’ view s of the state’s economic outlook mirror their views of the general direction of the state, with 41 percent saying they expect good economic times in the next 12 months and 50 percent saying they expect bad times. Today’s expectation of good times is simila r to October 2012 (37%), but is at its highest point since January 2007 (50%). A majority of Democrats (56%) expect good times, while nearly eight in 10 Republicans (78%) and half of independents expect bad times (36% good times, 52% bad times) . The expect ation of good times is higher among Latinos (51%) than among Asians (36%) or whites (34%); this expectation decreases as age and income levels increase. Residents in the Other Southern California region (61%) are the most likely to say the state can expect bad times economically, followed by residents in the Central Valley (47%), Los Angeles (46 %), and the San Francisco Bay Area (43%). PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 9 APPROVAL RATINGS OF STATE ELECTED OFFICIALS Approval of Governor Jerry Brown (48%) has reached a high point after the passage of Proposition 30, a tax initiative that he promoted. This rating marks a slight increase since October (42%) and surpasses his previous high of 46 percent in January 2012. Still, 35 percent disapprove of his job performance and 17 percent are unsure. Likely voters are more likely to approve than disapprove (49% approve, 40% disapprove, 11% unsure). Partisans are divided , with seven in 10 Democrats (70%) approving, seven in 10 Republicans (68%) disapproving, and independents more likely to appr ove (44%) than disapprove (36%). Asians (63%) and Latinos (50%) are more likely than whites (41%) to approve. Approval of the California Legislature has reached 34 percent among all adults; 51 percent disapprove. Approval has increased slightly since Octo ber (28%) and surpasses 30 percent for the first time since January 2008 (34%). Today, likely voters are more disapproving (26% approve, 61% disapprove) than are all adults. Republicans (80%) and independents (52% ) disapprove of the legislature, while Democrats are divided (39% approve, 43% disapprove). Approval is much higher among Latinos (47%) and Asians (40%) than among whites (24%) . But it declines with age and is lower among those with at least some college education than among those with only a high school degree or less. Californians with household incomes of less than $40,000 are far more likely than more-affluent Californians to approve of the legislature. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that…” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California? Approve 48% 70% 20% 44% 49% Disapprove 35 18 68 36 40 Don’t know 17 12 12 20 11 The California Legislature is handling its job? Approve 34 39 11 34 26 Disapprove 51 43 80 52 61 Don’t know 15 18 9 14 13 Approval of the governor’s handling of plans and policies for California’s future is similar to his overall approval , with 46 percent approving and 38 percent disapproving. Two in three Democrats (67%) approve, seven in 10 Republicans (70%) disapprove, and independents are divided (43% approve, 38% disapprove). Ratings of the California L egislature on handling California’s future (32% approve, 53% disapprove) are also similar to its overall approval. Republicans (78%) are the most disapproving , followed by independents (58%) and Democrats (44%). Approval of the legislature on this issue is similar to our findings th e last time we asked this question in August 2006 (28% approve, 54% disapprove). “Overall, from what you know, do y ou approve or disapprove of the way that … is handling plans and policies for California’s future?” All adults Age Race/ethnicity 18–34 35 –54 55 and older Asians Latinos Whites Governor Brown Approve 46% 51% 46% 41% 56% 50% 40% Disapprove 38 31 40 44 23 33 46 Don’t know 16 19 14 15 20 17 14 The California Legislature Approve 32 41 33 21 32 50 21 Disapprove 53 40 54 65 46 38 64 Don’t know 15 18 13 14 22 12 15 PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 10 STATE BUDGET SITUATION How does the passage of Proposition 30 make Californians feel about the state budget situation? Forty- six percent say it makes them more optimistic, 23 percent say more pessimistic, and 28 percent say it does not change the way they feel. Two in three Democrats (66%) and a plurality of independents (48%) say it makes them more optimistic; a plurality of Republicans (50%) say it makes them more pessimistic. Pluralities across regions and demographic groups are more optimistic. Residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (54%) are the most likely to be more optimistic, followed by those in the Central Valley (48%), Los Angeles (44% ), and the Other Southern California region (40%). Asians (53%) are more likely than Latinos and whites (44% each) to share this view . Among those who view the budget situation as a big problem, 40 percent are more optimistic , 28 percent are more pessimist ic, and 30 percent feel no change. Among those who approve of Governor Brown, 65 percent are more optimistic about the state budget situation. “As you may know, voters passed Proposition 30 on the November 6th ballot. Proposition 30 will increase taxes on earnings over $250,000 for seven years and sales taxes by ¼ cent for four years, to fund schools, and it guarantees public safety realignment f unding. Does the passage of Proposition 30 make you more optimistic about the state’s budget situation, more pessimistic, or does this not change the way you feel about California’s budget situation?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind More optimistic 46% 66% 22% 48% 46% More pessimistic 23 10 50 24 28 Does not change the way I feel 28 22 26 27 24 Don’t know 3 1 2 1 1 Still, nearly all Californians continue to call the state budget situation a problem (68% big problem, 26% somewhat of a problem) . Likely voters are even more pessimistic (74% big problem, 21% somewhat of a problem). Findings are similar to those in October for all adults (70% big, 25% somewhat of a problem). Since January 2008, more than six in 10 Californians have said the budget situation is a big problem. When it comes to the size of government, 55 percent of Californians would prefer to pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, while 40 percent prefer lower taxes and fewer services. Likely voters are divided (48% higher taxes/more services, 47% lower taxes/fewer services). Throughout 2012, t here has been a double -digit preference among Californians for higher taxes and more services. Democrats (69%) favor higher taxes and more services, while Republicans ( 73%) prefer lower taxes and fewer services. Independents (51%) somewhat prefer higher taxes and more services (44% prefer lower taxes/fewer services). Preference for higher taxes and more services declines as age and income increase. Latinos (66%) and Asians (54%) prefer higher taxes and more services while whites are divided (44% higher taxe s/more services, 48% lower taxes/fewer services). “In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more? I’d rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, or, I’d rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services.” All adults Age Race/ethnicity 18–34 35 –54 55 and older Asians Latinos Whites Higher taxes, more services 55% 60% 55% 48% 54% 66% 44% Lower taxes, fewer services 40 37 39 44 38 31 48 Don’t know 6 3 6 8 8 4 7 PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 11 PERCEPTIONS OF CALIFORNIA’S HIGHER EDUCATION SYSTEM Solid majorities of Californians think that affordability (65%) and the overall state budget situation (64%) are big problem s for California’s higher education system today. The share saying affordability is a big problem is at its highest today (53% 2007, 52% 2008, 57% 2009, 60% 2010, 61% 2011, 65% today). The share saying the overall state budget situation is a big problem for higher education peaked in 2010 (70% 2009, 74% 2 010, 69% 2011, 64% today) . However, the share holding this view today remains high despite passage of Proposition 30 , which averted trigger cuts to higher education. Forty -three percent say accessibility is a big problem, a 19 -point increase since 2007 (24%) when this question was last asked. “I’m going to read you a list of issues people have mentioned when talking about California’s higher education system today. For each one, please tell me if you think it is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem. How about…” The overall affordability of education for students? The overall state budget situation? The overall accessibility of education for students? Big problem 65% 64% 43% Somewhat of a problem 23 23 31 Not much of a problem 12 11 24 Don’t know 1 2 1 Democrats (73%) are more likely than Republicans (60%) and independents (63%) to say affordability is a big problem. Res idents in the Central Valley (72 %) and the San Francisco Bay Area (70%) are the most likely to say affordability is a big problem, followed by those in the Other Southern California reg ion (64%) and Los Angeles (60%) . Latinos (59%) are less likely than whites (67%) and Asians (70%) to say this . And t hose earning $80,000 or more are less likely than those with lower incomes to say this . Majorities of Democrats, independents (73% each), and Republicans (61%) say the overall state budget situation is a big problem for the higher education system. Asians (78%) are much more likely than whites (66%) and far more likely than Latinos (53%) to say this. Seven in 10 Californians earning $40,000 or more hold t his view, compared to six in 10 earning less than $40,000. Seven in 10 with at least some college education express this view, compared to 55 percent of those with a high school education only. Democrats (48%) are more likely than independents (42%) and Republicans (39%) to say accessibility is a big problem. Between 38 and 48 percent across regions and demographic groups hold this view . Percent saying big problem Overall affordability Overall state budget situation Overall accessibility All adults 65% 64% 43% Likely voters 68 70 45 Parents of children 18 or younger 63 59 41 Age 18–34 69 65 42 35–54 61 60 42 55 and older 67 69 47 Race/ethnicity Asians 70 78 48 Latinos 59 53 40 Whites 67 66 43 Household income Under $40,000 67 59 47 $40,000 to under $80,000 72 70 42 $80,000 or more 59 70 42 PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 12 EDUCATING CALIFORNIA’S FUTURE WORKFORCE A record-high 51 percent of parents of children age 18 or younger hope that their youngest child will attain a graduate degree , and another 36 percent hope for a four -year college degree. Fewer parents hope that their youngest achieves a high school education or l ess (4%), or completes a two-year college degree or career technical training (6%). Strong majorities of parents across income and racial/ethnic groups hope their youngest obtains at least a four -year degree; hopes for completing a graduate degree increase with income. Latino and white parents express similar views regarding college attainment. The share of Latino parents hoping for a graduate degree is up 17 points from November 2011 ( from 29% to 46% today). (The sample size for Asian parent s is too small for separate analysis.) Parents who are college graduates (60%) are more likely than those without a college degree (47%) to hope that their youngest child gets a graduate degree. “What do you hope will be the highest grade level that your youngest child will achieve: some high school; high school graduate; two-year community college graduate or career technical training; four-year college graduate; or a graduate degree after colle ge?” Parents of children 18 or younger All parents of children 18 or younger Income Race/ethnicity Under $40,000 $40,000 to $80,000 $80,000 or more Latinos Whites Some high school or high school graduate 4% 6% 7% 1% 7% – Two-year college or career technical training 6 10 4 2 8 7% Four- year college graduate 36 37 36 35 37 38 Graduate degree after college 51 44 51 63 46 51 Don’t know 2 2 2 1 1 3 Nearly all Californians say the state’s public higher education system is very (85%) or somewhat (11%) important to the quality of life and economic vitality of the state over the next 20 years. The share saying it is very important is at a record high today , although at least seven in 10 have held this view in previous surveys. Today, Democrats (92%) are much more likely than independents (79%) or Republicans (74%) to say the public higher education system is very important. Eighty -eight percent of parents with children age 18 or younger hold this view, as do 91 percent of public school parents. More than eight in 10 adults across regions, racial/ethnic, age, education, and income groups say the public higher education syste m is very important to the quality of life and economic vitality of the state over the next 20 years. Among those who think California will be a better place to live in 2025, 91 percent say the public higher education system is very important . Among those who say the state will be a worse place to live , 76 percent say it is very important . “In general, how important is California’s public higher education system to the quality of life and economic vitality of the state over the next 20 years?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Very important 85% 92% 74% 79% 84% Somewhat important 11 7 18 17 12 Not too important 1 1 4 2 2 Not at all important 1 – 3 1 2 Don’t know 1 – 1 1 – PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 13 EDUCATING CALIFORNIA’S FUTURE WORKFORCE (CONTINUED) A majority of Californians (56%) think that if current trends continue California will not have enough college- educated residents needed for the jobs and skills likely to be in demand in 20 years. Twenty- eight percent say there will be just enough and 14 percent say there will be more than enough college- educated residents in the state. The share who say the state will face a shortage is up slightly from last year but is the same as it was in 2010 (56% today, 49% 2011, 56% 2010, 49% 2009, 47% 2008, 52% 2007). Majorities across parties anticipate a shortage of college graduates (57% Democrats, 56% independents, 51% Republicans). San Francisco Bay Area residents (48%) are less likely to hold this view than those in other areas (55% Los Angeles, 56% Central Valley, 59% Other Southern California). Women (60%) are somewhat more likely than men (52%) to say there will be a shortage. Majorities across income, education , and racial/ethnic groups agree. Natur alized citizens (63%) and non-citizens (60%) are somewhat more likely to see a shortage than are U.S. natives (53%). Among those saying the higher education system is very important to the future vitality of the state, 59 percent see a future shortage. “In thinking ahead 20 years, if current trends continue, do y ou think California will hav e more than enough, not enough, or just enough college-educated residents needed for the jobs and skills likely to be in demand?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Not enough 56% 57% 51% 56% 55% Just enough 28 28 30 29 28 More than enough 14 11 16 11 13 Don’t know 2 3 3 3 3 Half of Californians have at least some confidence in the state government’s ability to plan for the future of California’s higher education system : 13 percent say they have a great deal of confidence and 37 percent have only some. The other half express very little (34%) or no confidence (15%) . Confidence was highest when we first asked this question in 2007 (57% great deal/only some). It dropped as low as 40 percent in 2010 but has increased since then (57% 2007, 52% 2008, 41% 2009, 40% 2010, 47% 2011, 50% today). A solid majority of Democrats (61%) express confidence in the state’s ability to handle this issue, compared to 47 percent of independents and 33 percent of Republicans. Asians (58%) and Latinos (54%) have more confidence than whites (44%). About half of those in other demographic groups and regions are at least somewhat confident, including public school parents and parents with children age 18 or younger (53% each). Among those who anticipate a shortage of college- educated workers, 45 percent have confidence and 54 percent do not. “How much confidence do you have in the state government’s ability to plan for the future of California’s higher education system— a great deal, only some, very little, or none?” All adults Party Likely v oters Dem Rep Ind A great deal 13% 19% 5% 5% 10% Only some 37 42 28 42 38 Very little 34 30 33 35 32 None 15 8 33 17 19 Don’t know 1 1 1 1 – PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 14 WATER SYSTEMS Six in 10 Californians think that the water supply in their part of California is a big (31%) or somewhat (28%) of a problem; 39 percent say it is not a problem. The share saying it is a big problem has declined 13 points since December 2009 (44%) when the state was in a drought. Those in the Central Valley (38%) and the Other Southern California region (35%) are more likely than r esidents in Los Angeles (27%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (20%) to say that the water supply in their area is a big problem. “Would you say that the supply of water is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem in your part of California? ” All adults Region Likely voters Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Other Southern California Big problem 31% 38% 20% 27% 35% 35% Somewhat of a problem 28 23 31 30 28 30 Not much of a problem 39 36 48 41 35 34 Don’t know 2 4 1 2 1 2 When presented with two approaches to managing the state’s water supply, 47 percent of Californians say the focus should be on building new water storage systems and increasing supply while 50 percent say it should be on conservation and using the current water supply more efficiently. Since this question was first asked in 2004, the margin of preference for conservation has narrowed (2004: 55% conservation vs. 41% storage; 2006: 54% vs. 41%; 2009: 50% vs. 43%; today: 50% vs. 47%). Six in 10 San Francisco Bay Area residents prefer conservation, while residents in other regions are more divided. Looked at another way, 60 percent of those living along the state’s north -central coast prefer conservation while those on the southern coast and inland are divided. Majorities of Democrats (54%) and independents (52%) prefer conservation, while Republicans (56%) prefer storage. Six in 10 Asians (59%) prefer conservation ; whites and Latinos are divided. Those saying water supply is a big problem prefer building new storage (55%) to conservation (41%). Those who say it is not a problem prefer conservation (57% ) to storage (41% ). “Which of the following statements is closer to your views about planning for the future in your p art of California? We should focus on building new water storage systems and increasing the water supply; or, We should focus on water conservation, user allocation, pricing, and other strategies to more efficiently use the current water supply.” All adults Region Likely voters Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Other Southern California New storage, increase supply 47% 49% 36% 51% 52% 45% Conservation, efficiency 50 46 61 48 46 50 Don’t know 3 5 3 2 2 5 Declining native fish populations ha ve been a point of contention in the debate about water management. A solid majority of Californians (61%) favor increasing state spending to improve conditions for native fish; 34 percent oppose this idea. Support drops to 39 per cent if increased spending means an increase in residents’ water bills . Solid majorities of Democrats and independent s favor increased spending (with support dropping to 41% for Democrats and 44% for independents if it means higher water bills) , while Republicans (52%) are opposed outright. Four in 10 across income groups are in favor even with increased water bills. San Francisco Bay Area residents (48%) are the most likely, and Central Valley residents (29%) the least likely, to be in favor even with higher bills. N orth-central coast residents (50%) are more likely to be in favor even if water bills increase than south coast (39%) and inland (30%) residents . Latinos (40%) and whites (43%) are much more likely than A sians (23%) to favor this idea. December 2012 Californians and the Future 15 FISCAL AND GOVERNANCE REFORMS KEY FINDINGS  The 2012 elections were the first to use new voting districts drawn by a citizens’ commission and the top- two primary system. Majorities of Californians and likely voters say these reforms have had a positive effect. (page 16 )  Californians are not enthusiastic about proposals to alter the legislative structure. They are divided about having a part -time legislature and slim majorities oppose a unicam eral or larger legislature. (page 17)  Consistent with previous surveys, strong majorities favor spending reforms: requiring new programs or tax cuts to identify a funding source (79%), increasing the rainy day fund (72%), and strictly limiting state spend ing increases (65%). (page 18)  Smaller majorities support a two -year budget cycle and lowering the majority required to pass local special taxes or state taxes. Voters are divided along party lines about lowering vote thresholds. (page 1 9)  Californians continue to be positive about Proposition 13, with 60 percent saying it has been a good thing for California. They are more divided about its effect on local government services. (page 20)  When it comes to expanding the tax base, a majority favor a “split roll ” property tax, while record -high majorities oppose extending the sale s tax to services and increasing the vehicle license fee. (page 21 )  Six in 10 say policy decisions made through th e initiative process are better than those made by the governor and legislature. They are divided about allowing elected officials to amend initiatives, but favor initiative renewal and increased public disclosure of initiative funders. (pages 22, 23 ) 57 29 20 36 65 79 0 20 40 60 80 Split rollproperty taxExtend salestax to servicesIncrease vehiclelicense fee Percent all adults Favor Oppose Expanding the Tax Base 565451 363943 0 20 40 60 80 Two-yearbudget55% to passlocal specialtaxes Simple majorityto pass statetaxes Percent all adults Good idea Bad idea Fiscal Reforms 79 72 65 13 21 28 0 20 40 60 80 Identify fundingsource fornew programs Increase rainyday fundStatespending limit Percent all adults Good idea Bad idea State Spending Reforms PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 16 RECENT ELECTORAL REFORMS The 2012 election cycle featured two key electoral reforms that were recently passed by voters. The passage of Proposition 11 in 2008 established a citizens’ commission to handle legislative redistricting rather than having the state legislature and governor make these decisions. When asked about the effect of passing Proposition 11 , majorities of Californians (58%) and likely voters (59%) say it turned out to be mostly a good thing for California. About one in five in each group say it has been a bad thing and about one in five are unsure. Majorities across parties say Proposition 11 turned out to be a good thing. Majorities across regions also agree that it has been good for the state; Central Valley residents (64%) are the most likely to hold this view, followed by those in the San Francisco Bay Area (61%), the Other Southern California region (58%), and Los Angeles (53%). Majorities across demographic groups see positive effects , although t he percentage expressing this view is hi ghest (63%) among those age 18– 34 (5 7% age 35 –54; 53% age 55 and older ). Those who approve of the governor and the legislature are much more likely than those who disapprove to say independent redistricting has been a good thing. “Proposition 11 is the 2008 ballot measure passed by voters that established a citizens’ commission to redraw the physical boundaries of the state’s voting districts rather than having the state legislature and governor make these redistricting decisions. Overall, do you feel that passing Proposition 11 turned out to be mostly a good thing for California or mostly a bad thing?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Mostly a good thing 58% 60% 55% 63% 59% Mostly a bad thing 21 18 26 18 21 Mixed (volunteered) 2 3 3 2 2 Don’t know 18 19 15 16 17 Proposition 14 , passed by voters in 2010 , changed the state’s partially closed primary system to a top - two system whereby voters cast primary ballots for any candidate regardless of party and the two candidates receiving the most votes advance to the general election. The June and November 2012 e lections were the first to use this system. Abo ut six in 10 Californians (63%) and likely voters (59%) say passing Proposition 14 has turned out to be mostly a good thing for California, while about one in four in each group consider it a bad thing and just over one in 10 are unsure. Although majorities across parties say it has been a good thing, Democrats (67%) and independents (66%) are much more likely than Republicans (52%) to hold this view. Across regions, more than six in 10 believe Proposition 14 has had a good effect. While majorities across demographic groups hold this view, the percentage is higher among those age 18– 34 (67%) and 35–54 (65%) than among those age 55 and older (54%) . Agai n those who approve of the governor and the legislature are much more likely than those who disapprove to see Proposition 14 as a good thing for the state. “Proposition 14 is the 2010 ballot measure passed by voters that changed California’s state primary elections from a partially closed system to a top- two primary system in which voters now cast primary election ballots for any candidate— regardless of party—and the two candidates receiving the most votes—regardless of party —advance to the general election . Overall, do you feel that passing Proposition 14 turned out to be mostly a good thing for California or mostly a bad thing?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Mostly a good thing 63% 67% 52% 66% 59% Mostly a bad thing 23 19 33 19 26 Mixed (volunteered) 2 2 2 1 2 Don’t know 13 12 13 13 13 PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 17 LEGISLATIVE REFORM PROPOSALS Several ideas about changing the legislative structure in California have been discussed over the years. One idea is to change the legislature from full- time to part-time status. Californians are divided about this idea (48% good idea, 45% bad idea) , as are likely voters (48% good idea, 43% bad idea). Californians were much more likely to say this was a bad idea (31% good, 58% bad) when this question was last aske d in September 2011. Opinions diverge across parties: Republicans (67%) are far more likely than independents (43%) and Democrats (38%) to say a part-time legislature would be a good idea . Central Valley (54%) and Other Southern California (53%) residents are more likely to consider a part -time legislature a good idea than Los Angeles (42%) and San Francisco Bay Area (41%) residents. Whites (53%) are more likely than either Latinos (45%) or Asians (31%) to say this is a good idea, and the share holding this view increases with age. Among those who disapprove of the legislature, 57 percent say part - time status is a good idea , compared with 42 percent of those who approve of the legis lature. “Other reforms have been proposed to address state governance issues. For each of the following, please say if you think the proposal is a good idea or a bad idea. How about changing the California Legislature from full -time status to part -time status?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Good idea 48% 38% 67% 43% 48% Bad idea 45 53 26 48 43 Don’t know 7 9 7 9 9 Californians (36% good idea, 51% bad idea) and likely voters (28% good, 58% bad) are more likely to say changing the legislature from two houses to a single house of 120 members is a bad idea than a good idea. Voters across parties are more likely to say t his is a bad idea than a good idea . Central Valley residents are divided about a unicameral legislature (45% good, 42% bad) ; residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (32% good , 50% bad), Los Angeles (35% good, 53% bad), and the Other Southern California reg ion (34% good, 5 6% bad) are more likely to consider it a bad idea than a good one. Latinos (46%) are more likely than whites (33%) or Asians (30%) to say a single house is a good idea. About four in 10 of both those who approve of the legislature and those who disapprove say this is a good idea. “How about changing the California L egislature from two houses—the 80-member state assembly and 40 -member state senate— to a single house with 120 members?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Good idea 36% 36% 27% 30% 28% Bad idea 51 50 60 57 58 Don’t know 13 14 13 12 15 Another reform idea is to increase the number of legislators so that each one represents fewer people. Californians are also more likely to say this is a bad idea (53%) than a good idea (40%). And among likely voters, nearly two in three consider this a bad idea (30% good, 64% bad). Majorities of Republicans (64%), Democrats (61%), and independents (59%) say increasing the number of legislators is a bad idea . Other Southe rn California (45%), Central Valley (43%), and Los Angeles (40%) residents are more likely than San Francisco Bay Area residents (34 %) to say this is a good idea. A majority of Latinos (53%) say good idea, while majorities of Asians (55%) and whites (59%) say bad idea. Among those who disapprove of the legislature, 59 percent say this is a bad idea. PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 18 STATE SPENDING REFORM PROPOSALS Strong majorities of Californians express support for a number of proposed state spending reforms. Two in three Californians and likely voters (65% each) say it is a good idea to strictly limit the amount by which state spending could increase each year. Since first asked about this idea in June 2003, majorities of Californians (ranging from a low of 53% in May 2007 to a high of 72% in May 2011) have said a state spending limit is a good idea. Across parties today, majorities consider a strict state spending limit a good idea, although Republicans (77%) are more likely to hold this view than independents (67%) or Democrats (56%). Majorities across regions and demographic g roups say this is a good idea. Support is highest among those in the Other Southern California region (71%), followed by those in the Central Valley (66%), Los Angeles (63%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (57%). Among those who general ly prefer paying lower taxes and having a state government that provides fewer services, 74 percent say a spending limit is a good idea. Those who disapprove of Governor Brown are much more likely than thos e who approve to consider a spending limit a good idea (77% to 59%), while among both those who approve (66%) and disapprove (70%) of the legislature, strong majorities say it is a good idea. Seven in 10 Californians (72%) and likely voters (70%) say it is a good idea to increase the size of the state’s rainy day fund and require above -average revenues to be deposited into it for use during economic downturns. Since we first asked this question in May 2010, at least 70 percent of adults have said increasing the rainy day fund is a good idea. Majorities across parties consider this a good idea, but Democrats and independents (74% each ) are much more likely than Republicans (61%) to hold this view. At least two in three across regions and demographic groups support increasing the rainy day fund . Those who prefer paying higher taxes for more state services are more likely than those who prefer smaller government to say a bigger rainy day fund is a good idea (77% to 66%). Those who approve of the governor and the legislature are more likely than those who disapprove to support a larger rainy day fund. S trong majorities of Californians (79%) and likely voters (82%) also support requiring any major new or expanded state programs or tax reductions to identify a speci fic funding source. Results among all adults were similar the previous time we asked this question in May 2010 (78% good idea). At least eight in 10 across parties say this “pay as you go” idea is a good one and more than seven in 10 across regions and dem ographic groups agree. Among both those who prefer a larger state government and those who prefer a smaller one, eight in 10 say it is a good idea. (The idea, known as “pay- go,” was a component of Proposition 31 on the November ballot, a measure that also included a two-year budget and other fiscal and governance reform s. Our pre -election surveys found a lack of understanding about Proposition 31 — with high percentages of “don’t knows” —and the measure ultimately failed.) “Fiscal reforms have been proposed to address the structural issues in the state budget and local budget issues. For each of the following, please say if you think the proposal is a good idea or a bad idea.” All a dults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind How about strictly limiting the amount of money that state spending could increase each year? Good idea 65% 56% 77% 67% 65% Bad idea 28 35 20 29 28 Don't know 7 9 3 5 7 How about increasing the size of the state's rainy day fund and requiring above-average revenues to be deposited into it for use during economic downturns? Good idea 72 74 61 74 70 Bad idea 21 19 31 20 23 Don't know 7 7 8 6 7 How about requiring that any major new or expanded state programs or tax reductions identify a specific funding source? Good idea 79 80 86 81 82 Bad idea 13 11 9 13 10 Don't know 8 10 5 6 7 PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 19 FISCAL REFORM PROPOSALS Smaller majorities of Californians —and even fewer likely voters —support three fiscal reforms that have been proposed to address structural issues in the state budget and local budget issues . A majority of adults (56%) and 49 percent of likely voters think it is a good idea to establish a two- year state budget cycle in place of the current one -year cycle (again, this was an element of Proposition 31) . Majorities of Democrats (55%) and independents (54%) say a two -year budget cycle is a good idea ; Republicans are evenly divided (44% good, 45% bad). Across regions, between 53 percent and 57 percent say it i s a good idea. There is a considerable difference of opinion among racial/ethnic groups: 67 percent of Latinos say a two -year budget cycle is a good idea , compared with 51 percent of whites and 47 percent of Asians. Majorities of those with only a high sch ool education (65%) and household incomes under $40,000 (61%) say this is a good idea , compared with fewer who have more education and household income. A proposal to lower the two- thirds vote requirement to a simple majority for the state legislature to pass state taxes is considered a good idea by 51 percent of Californians (43% bad idea) . (The two -thirds requirement was a component of Proposition 13 , which passed in 1978 ; many wonder if the legislature, with a new supermajority of Democrats , will seek t o change this rule. ) Among likely voters, 45 percent say a simple majority is a good idea and 51 percent think it is a bad idea. Partisans are divided about lowering the vote to pass taxes : 59 percent of Democrats say good idea while 66 percent of Republicans say bad idea. Independents are split (44% good, 50% bad) . Opposition to lowering the share of vote s required to pass taxes is higher among older residents and increase s with higher inc ome. Six in 10 who favor smaller government think it is a bad idea , while six in 10 who favor larger government say it is a good idea. Those who approve of the governor and legislature are more likely to support this idea than those who disapprove. A third proposal would lower the majority required for voters to pass local special taxes from two -thirds to 55 percent. ( The two-third s vote requirement was another component of Proposition 13. ) This would match the share of votes required to pass local school bonds (which voters lowered from two- thirds by approv ing Proposition 39 in 2000). A majority of adults (54%) say lowering the vote threshold to pass local special taxes is a good idea (39% say bad idea). Likely voters are more divided (50% good, 45% bad) . The share of adults saying good idea (54%) matches the previous finding in May 2011 and is a record high since this question was first asked in June 2003 (46% good, 45% bad). Voters today are divided along party lines (Democrats , 60% good; Republicans , 57% bad), with independents split. Across regions, between 53 percent and 58 percent support lowering the share of votes required to pass local special taxes. Support is higher among lower-income residents (61%) compared with middle- (53%) and higher -income (49%) residents and among Latinos (62%) compared with Asians (52%) and whites (50%). “Fiscal reforms have been proposed to address the structural issues in the state budget and local budget issues. For each of the following, please say if you think the prop osal is a good idea or a bad idea.” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind How about establishing a two -year state budget cycle rather than the one -year cycle we currently have? Good idea 56% 55% 44% 54% 49% Bad idea 36 36 45 37 41 Don't know 9 9 11 9 9 How about replacing the two -thirds vote requirement with a simple majority vote for the state legislature to pass state taxes? Good idea 51 59 31 44 45 Bad idea 43 34 66 50 51 Don't know 6 7 3 6 4 How about replacing the two -thirds vote requirement with a 55 -percent majority vote for voters to pass local special taxes? Good idea 54 60 39 47 50 Bad idea 39 34 57 48 45 Don't know 6 6 5 5 5 PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 20 PROPOSITION 13 There is talk periodically of changing the Proposition 13 property tax limits that voters approved in 1978. These discussions have resurfaced in the wake of the November election, which gave Democrats a two -thirds majority in the legislature and resulted in the passage of the Proposition 30 tax initiative. Californians remain highly positive in their assessment of the overall impact of Proposition 13. Six in 10 adults (60%) and 64 percent of likely voters say Proposition 13 has been mostly a good thing for California, while three in 10 adults (31%) and likely voters (29%) say Proposition 13 has been mostly a bad thing. Since we began asking this question in February 2003, m ajorities of adults have considered Proposition 13 mostly a good thing in all but one survey ( May 2005)—and even then a plurality (47% ) said good thing. Majorities across political groups today say that Proposition 13 is mostly a good thing, with Democrats (55%) less likely than indepe ndents (63%) and Republicans (79%) to hold thi s view. Majorities across political ideologies, regions, and demograph ic groups have a positive view, including m ost whites (68%), Asians (59%), and Latinos (55%) . “Proposition 13 is the 1978 ballot measure that limits the property tax rate to 1 percent of assessed value at time of purchase and annual tax increases to no more than 2 percent until the property is sold. Overall, do you feel passing Proposition 13 turned out to be mostly a good thing for California or mostly a bad thing?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Mostly a good thing 60% 55% 79% 63% 64% Mostly a bad thing 31 36 13 28 29 Mixed (volunteered) 1 2 1 1 1 Don’t know 7 7 6 9 6 O verall perceptions of the local impacts of Proposition 13 are mixed. A plurality of adults (36%) say that Proposition 13 has had no effect on local government services provided to residents in California ; similar proportions say that Proposition 13 has had a good effect (29%) and a bad effect (25%). While Democrats are more likely to say there have been bad effects than good effects, Republicans and independents are most likely to say there have been no effects (and they are more likely to say that the effects have been good than bad). Whites (33%) are more likely than Asians (26%) and Lat inos (25%) to say that Proposition 13 has had a good effect on local government services provided to California residents. Among those who say that Proposition 13 has been mostly a good thing, 41 percent say it has had no effect on local government services, 41 percent say it has had a good effect , and 12 percent say it has had a bad effect. Californians gave similarly mixed reviews of the local effect of Proposition 13 in March 2011, May 2008, and February 2003. In September 1998, 38 percent said its effect was good, 23 percent said bad, and 27 percent said it had no effect on local government services. In every survey, fewer than four in 10 adults have said its effect on local government services has been good. “Overall, do you think the property tax limitations imposed by Proposition 13 have had a good effect or a bad effect or no effect on local government services provided to residents in the state of California?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Good effect 29% 24% 37% 29% 30% Bad effect 25 35 12 22 26 No effect 36 28 42 40 32 Don’t know 10 13 9 9 11 PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 21 EXPANDING THE TAX BASE Proposition 13 limits both residential and commercial property taxes. Among the Proposition 13 reforms that have been proposed is the so-called split roll property tax, which would change the way commercial property taxes are assessed. This reform may be considered, given legislative Democrats’ new two -thirds majority . M ajorities of adults (57%) and likely voters (58%) favor having commercial properties taxed according to their current market value. The resu lts were similar in January 2012 (60% of adults and likely voters were in favor). In response to a similar question, majorities of adults said it is a good idea to tax commercial properties at their current value in five surveys conducted between February 2003 and September 2009. Today, m ajorities of Democrats and independents favor the proposal to change the taxes on commercial properties while Republicans are divided. Majorities across regions and demographic groups are in favor, but support varies widely between liberals (70%), moderates (57%) , and conservatives (47%). Of those who say that Proposition 13 has been mostly a bad thing for California, 5 9 percent favor and 36 percent oppose taxing commercial properties according to their current market value. Even among those who say Proposition 13 has been a good thing, 56 percent favor this change (39% oppose). “Under Proposition 13, residential and commercial property taxes are both strictly limited. What do you think about having commercial properties taxed according to their current market value? Do you favor or oppose this proposal?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Favor 57% 66% 47% 58% 58% Oppose 36 26 48 36 36 Don’t know 7 8 6 5 6 In the wake of the passage of the Proposition 30 tax initiative, how receptive are Californians to raising other taxes on themselves ? Strong majorities of adults (65%) and likely voters (68%) oppose extending the sales tax to services that are not currentl y taxed, while fewer than three in 10 are in favor. Nearly eight in 10 adults (79%) and likely voters (78%) are opposed to increasing the vehicle license fee while just two in 10 are in favor. Majorities across parties, regions, and demographic groups are opposed to extending the sales tax to services that are not currently taxed and increasing the vehicle license fee. Previous surveys have consistently shown that majorities of adults are opposed to extending the sales tax to services and increasing the vehicle license fee. Since these questions were last asked in May 2011, there has been a sharp increase in opposition to extending the sales tax ( from 54% to 65%) and increasing the vehicle license fee ( from 64% to 79%) . In fact, current opposition to taxing services matches the record high from May 2007 and opposition to increasing the vehicle license fee is at an historic high. Opposition to both proposals is also at record highs among likely voters. “New revenue sources have been proposed to address the state budget situation. For each of the following, please say if you favor or oppose the proposal.” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind How about extending the state sales tax to services that are not currently taxed? Favor 29% 36% 14% 27% 26% Oppose 65 56 83 64 68 Don't know 6 8 3 9 6 How about increasing the vehicle license fee? Favor 20 24 8 24 20 Oppose 79 74 91 74 78 Don't know 1 2 1 2 2 PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 22 INITIATIVE PROCESS The November 6 election in California included 11 state propositions that went to the ballot through the citizens’ initiative process. We asked the November election voters in our survey to assess the information they had to make ballot choices. Eight in 1 0 election voters say they were very (37%) or somewhat (43%) satisfied with the amount of information that they had about the propositions. Only two in 10 election voters report that they were not too (13%) or not at all (6%) satisfied. Most election voters across regions and demographic groups were at least somewhat satisfied with the information they had to make decisions. More Democrats than Republicans (43% to 30%) and more liberals than conservatives (41% to 34 %) say they were very satisfied. We also asked this question after the November 2008 election, when there were 12 state propositions on the ballot. A similar 84 percent of November election voters were either very (34%) or somewhat (50%) satisfied with the information they had in making decisions on ballot propositions. At least eight in 10 across political, regional, and demographic groups reported that they were at least somewhat satisfied. “Overall, how satisfied were you with the information you had to make choices on the ballot propositions?” Nov. 6 election voters only All Nov. 6 election voters Party Dem Rep Ind Very satisfied 37% 43% 30% 32% Somewhat satisfied 43 40 45 47 Not too satisfied 13 13 15 13 Not at all satisfied 6 4 9 7 Don’t know 1 1 1 – Another indication of Californians’ general satisfaction with the initiative process is their overall perception of its public policy consequences. About six in 10 adults (59%) and likely voters (59%) say that the public policy decisions made by California voters are probably better than those made by the governor and state legislature. Only one in four adults (26%) and likely voters (24%) say that California voters’ public policy decisions are probably worse than those made by the governor and state legisl ature. Majorities across political, regional, and demographic groups believe that the public policy decisions of California voters are probably better than those made by the governor and state legislature. Californians gave similarly positive responses in the May 2011 survey (62% better, 23% worse) as well as in every survey since we began asking this question in October 2000 (56% better, 24% worse). “Overall, do you think public policy decisions made through the initiative process by California voters are probably better or probably worse than public policy decisions made by the governor and state legislature?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Probably better 59% 64% 58% 61% 59% Probably worse 26 22 27 23 24 Same (volunteered) 4 2 7 6 6 Don’t know 11 12 8 10 11 PPIC Statewide S urvey December 2012 Californians and the Future 23 INITIATIVE REFORMS While the initiative process is consistently popular with Californians, some s ay that improvements are needed and a number of changes have been proposed over the past few years. We asked about three initiative reforms, and two had very strong support. Overwhelming majorities of adults (76%) and likely voters (86%) are in favor of requiring the yes and no campaigns for initiatives to increase disclosure of their contributors. Eight in 10 or more Democrats, Republicans, and independents support this type of initiative reform. Strong majorities across regional and demographic groups favor more disclosure of initiative cont ributors. When we asked a similar question in recent surveys, more than seven in 10 Californians favored increased public disclosure of funding sources for signature gathering and initiative campaigns. Strong majorities of adults (69%) and likely voters (66%) favor requiring voters to renew initiatives after a certain number of years by voting on them again. The level of support is similar among Democrats (68%) , Republicans (66%), and independents (71%). Strong majorities across regions and demographic groups favor the idea of requiring voters to renew initiatives after a certain number of years by voting on them again. Fewer than half of adults (48%) are in favor and 45 percent are opposed to allowing th e legislature, with the governor’s approval, to amend initiatives after a certain number of years. More than half of likely voters are opposed (40% favor, 55% oppose). While a majority of Democrats (54%) are in favor of this reform, a strong majority of Republicans (68%) are opposed, and independents are divided (46% favor, 48% oppose). This proposal to allow the legislature to amend initiatives after a certain number of years receives majority support among the following groups: adults under 35 (58%), liberals (57%), San Francisco Bay Area residents (55%), Latinos (53%), renters (53%), those with annual household incomes b elow $40,000 (52%), those with a high school education or less (52%), and Asians (51%). A majority of those who approve of the job perfor mance of the governor (55%) and the legislature (61%) support this change, while majorities of those who disapprove of the governor (61%) and the state legislature (58%) oppose it . When we asked a similar question about the legislature amending initiatives after six years, h alf of Californians were opposed in both October 2005 (37% favor, 51% oppose) and October 1998 (44% favor, 49 % oppose). “Reforms have been suggested to address issues that arise in Californ ia’s initiative process. Please say whether you would favor or oppose each of the following reform proposals. How about…” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Requiring the yes and no campaigns for initiatives to increase disclosure of their contributors? Favor 76% 83% 80% 85% 86% Oppose 18 13 16 10 11 Don't know 6 4 4 4 4 Requiring voters to renew initiatives after a certain number of years, by voting on them again? Favor 69 68 66 71 66 Oppose 27 28 31 28 30 Don't know 4 4 3 1 3 Allowing the legislature, with the governor’s approval, to amend initiatives after a certain number of years? Favor 48 54 28 46 40 Oppose 45 39 68 48 55 Don't know 7 7 4 5 5 December 2012 Californians and the Future 24 REGIONAL MAP December 2012 Californians and the Future 25 METHODOLOGY The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance from Sonja Petek, project manager for this survey, and survey research associates Dean Bonner and Jui Shrestha. This survey, Californians and the Future, was supported with funding from the S.D. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation, The San Francisco Foundation, The David and Susan Coulter Family Foundation, and the Walter S. Johnson Foundation . We benefit from discussions with PPIC staff, foundation staff, and other policy experts, but the methods, questions, and content of this report were determined solely by Mark Baldassare and the survey team. Findings in this report are based on a survey of 2,001 California adult residents, including 1,601 interviewed on landline telephones and 40 0 interviewed on cell phones. Interviews took an average of 20 minutes to complete. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights from November 13– 20, 2012. Landline interviews were conducted using a computer -generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephon e exchanges in California were eligible for selection, and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as six times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Cell phones were included in this survey to account for the growing number of Californians who use them. These interviews were conducted using a computer -gen erated random sample of cell phone numbers. All cell phone numbers with California area codes were eligible for selection, and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as eight times to increase the likelihood of reaching an eligible respondent. Once a cell phone user was reached, it was verified that this person was age 18 or older, a resident of California, and in a safe place to continue the survey (e.g., not driving). Cell phone respondents were offered a small reimbursement to help defray the cost of the call. Cell phone interviews were conducted with adults who have cell phone service only and with those who have both cell phone and landline service in the household. Live landline and cell phone interviews were conducted by Abt SRBI, Inc., in English and Spanish, according to respondents’ preferences. Accent on Languages, Inc., translated new survey questions into Spanish, with assistance from Renatta DeFever. With assistance from Abt SRBI we used data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2007– 2009 American Community Survey (ACS) through the University of Minnesota’s Integrated Public Use Microdata Series for California to compare certain demographic characteristics of the survey sample— region, age, gender, race/ethnicity, and education— with the characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the ACS figures. Abt SRBI used data from the 2008 National Health Interview Survey and data from the 2007– 2009 ACS for California both to estimate landline and cell p hone service in California and to compare the data against landline and cell phone service reported in this survey. We also used voter registration data from the California Secretary of State to compare the party registration of registered voters in our sa mple to party registration statewide. The landline and cell phone samples were then integrated using a frame integration weight, while sample balancing adjusted for differences across regional, age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, telephone service, and party registration groups. PPIC Statewide Survey December 2012 Californians and the Future 26 The sampling error, taking design effects from weighting into consideration, is ±3.5 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total sample of 2,001 adults. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be with in 3.5 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger: For the 1,3 34 registered voters, it is ±3.7 percent; for the 1,025 likely voters, it is ±4 percent; for the 1,172 registered voters who say they voted in the November 6th election, it is ±3.8%; for the 778 parents of children 18 or younger, it is ±5.9 percent . Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. We present results for four geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, and “Other Southern California” includes Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. Residents of other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, likely voters, November 6 voters, and parents, but sample sizes for these less populated areas are not large enough to report separately. Within coastal counties, the “north/central coast” region refers to the counties along the California coast northward from San Luis Obispo County to Del Norte County and includes all the San Francisco Bay Area counties. The “south coast” region includes Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego Counties. All other counties are included in the “i nland” region. We present specific results for non- Hispanic whites and for Latinos, who account for about a third of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest -growing voter groups. We also present results for non -Hispanic Asians, who m ake up about 14 percent of the state’s adult population. Results for other racial/ethnic groups —such as non -Hispanic blacks and Native Americans —are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, likely voters, November 6 voters, and p arents, but sample sizes are not large enough for separate analysis. We compare the opinions of those who report they are registered Democrats, registered Republicans, and decline -to -state or independent voters; the results for those who say they are registered to vote in other parties are not large enough for separate analysis. We also analyze the responses of likely voters —so designated by their responses to voter registration survey questions, previous election participation, and current interest in politics. The percentages presented in the report tables and in the questionnaire may not add to 100 due to rounding. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey results to those in our earlier surveys . Additional details about our methodology can be found at www.ppic.org/content/other/SurveyMethodology.pdf and are available upon request through surveys@ppic.org . December 2012 Californians and the Future 27 QUESTIONNAIRE AND RESULTS CALIFORNIANS AND THE FUTURE November 13–20, 2012 2,001 California Adult Residents: English, Spanish MARGIN OF ERROR ±3.5% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100 DUE TO ROUNDING 1. First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today? [code, don’t read] 53% jobs, economy 13 education, schools 10 state budget, deficit, taxes 4 immigration, illegal immigration 3 crime, gangs, drugs 2 health care, health costs 12 other 3 don’t know 2. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California? 48% approve 35 disapprove 17 don’t know 3. Overall, from what you know, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Brown is handling plans and policies for California’s future? 46% approve 38 disapprove 16 don’t know 4. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job? 34% approve 51 disapprove 15 don’t know 5. Overall, from what you know, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling plans and policies for California’s future? 32% approve 53 disapprove 15 don’t know 6. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 44% right direction 50 wrong direction 6 don’t know 7. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 41% good times 50 bad times 9 don’t know 8. Overall, do you think that in 2025 California will be a better place to live than it is now or a worse place to live than it is now or will there be no change? 42% better place 28 worse place 23 no change 8 don’t know [questions 9 to 11 not asked] PPIC Statewide Survey December 2012 Californians and the Future 28 12. Next, do you think the state budget situati on in California —that is, the balance between government spending and revenues —is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today? 68% big problem 26 somewhat of a problem 4 not a problem 2 don’t know 12a.As you may know, voters passed Proposition 30 on the November 6th ballot. Proposition 30 will increase taxes on earnings over $250,000 for seven years and sales taxes by ¼ cent for four years, to fund schools, and it guarantees public safety realignmen t funding. Does the passage of Proposition 30 make you more optimistic about the state’s budget situation, more pessimistic, or does this not change the way you feel about California’s budget situation? 46% more optimistic 23 more pessimistic 28 does not change the way I feel 3 don’t know 13. In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more — [rotate ] (1) I’d rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, [ or ] (2) I’d rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services? 55% higher taxes and more services 40 lower taxes and fewer services 6 don’t know Fiscal reforms have been proposed to address the structural issues in the state budget and local budget issues. For each of the following, please say if you think the proposal is a good idea or a bad idea. [ rotate questions 14 to 19] 14. How about strictly limiting the amount of money that state spending could increase each year? 65% good idea 28 bad idea 7 don’t know 15. How about increasing the size of the state's rainy day fund and requiring above -average revenues to be deposited into it for use during economic downturns? 72% good idea 21 bad idea 7 don’t know 16. How about replacing the two -thirds vote requirement with a simple majority vote for the state legislature to pass state taxes? 51% good idea 43 bad idea 6 don’t know 17. How about establishing a two -year state budget cycle rather than the on e-year cycle we currently have? 56% good idea 36 bad idea 9 don’t know 18. How about requiring that any major new or expanded state programs or tax reductions identify a specific funding source? 79% good idea 13 bad idea 8 don’t know 19. How about replacing the two -thirds vote requirement with a 55 -percent majority vote for voters to pass local special taxes? 54% good idea 39 bad idea 6 don’t know PPIC Statewide Survey December 2012 Californians and the Future 29 Other reforms have been proposed to address state governance issues. For each of the following, please say if you think the proposal is a good idea or a bad idea. [rotate questions 20 to 22] 20. How about changing the California L egislature from full-t ime status to part-time status? 48% good idea 45 bad idea 7 don’t know 21. How about changing the California L egislature from two houses —the 80 - member state assembly and 40 -member state senate —to a single house with 120 members? 36% good idea 51 bad idea 13 don’t know 22. How about increasing the number of legislators in the California L egislature so that each member represents fewer people? 40% good idea 53 bad idea 7 don’t know On another topic… [rotate questions 23 and 24] 23. Proposition 11 is the 2008 ballot measure passed by voters that established a citizens’ commission to redraw the physical boundaries of the state’s voting districts rather than having the state legislature and governor make these redistricting decisions. Overall, do you feel that passing Proposition 11 turned out to be mostly a good thing for California or mostly a bad thing? 58% mostly a good thing 21 mostly a bad thing 2 mixed (volunteered) 18 don’t know 24. Proposition 14 is the 2010 ballot measure passed by voters that changed California’s state primary elections from a partially closed system to a top -two primary system in which voters now cast primary election ballots for any candidate —regardless of party —and the two candidates receiving the most votes —regardless of party —advance to the general election. Overall, do you feel that passing Proposition 14 turned out to be mostly a good thing for California or mostly a bad thing? 63% mostly a good thing 23 mostly a bad thing 2 mixed (volunteered) 13 don’t know [questions 25 and 26 not asked ] New revenue sources have been proposed to address the state budget situation. For each of the following, please say if you favor or oppose the proposal. [ rotate questions 27 and 28] 27. How about extending the state sales tax to services that are not currently taxed? 29% favor 65 oppose 6 don’t know 28. How about increasing the vehicle license fee? 20% favor 79 oppose 1 don’t know PPIC Statewide Survey December 2012 Californians and the Future 30 29. Next, Proposition 13 is the 1978 ballot measure that limits the property tax rate to 1 percent of assessed value at time of purchase and annual tax increases to no more than 2 percent until the property is sold. Overall, do you feel passing Proposition 13 turned out to be mostly a good thing for California or mostly a bad thing? 60% mostly a good thing 31 mostly a bad thing 1 mixed (volunteered) 7 don’t know 30. And, over all, do you think the property tax limitations imposed by Proposition 13 have had a good effect or a bad effect or no effect on local government services provided to residents in the state of California? 29% good effect 25 bad effect 36 no effect 10 don’t know 31. Under Proposition 13, residential and commercial property taxes are both strictly limited. What do you think about having commercial properties taxed according to their current market value? Do you favor or oppose this proposal? 57% favor 36 oppose 7 don’t know Changing topics, I’m going to read you a list of issues people have mentioned when talking about California’s public higher education system today. For each one, please tell me if you think it is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem. First… [rotate questions 32 to 34] 32. How about the overall accessibility of education for students in California’s public c olleges and universities today? 43% big problem 31 somewhat of a problem 24 not much of a problem 1 don’t know 33. How about the overall affordability of education for students in California’s public colleges and universities today? 65% big problem 23 somewhat of a problem 12 not much of a problem 1 don’t know 34. How about the overall state budget s ituation for California’s public c olleges and universities today? 64% big problem 23 somewhat of a problem 11 not much of a problem 2 don’t know 35. In general, how important is California’s public higher education system to the quality of life and economic vitality of the state over the next 20 years —very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 85% very important 11 somewhat important 1 not too important 1 not at all important 1 don’t know 36. In thinking ahead 20 years, if current trends continue, do you think California will have [ rotate 1 and 2] (1) more than enough, (2) not enough, [ or ] just enough college- educated residents needed for the jobs and skills likely to be in demand? 14% more than enough 56 not enough 28 just enough 2 don’t know PPIC Statewide Survey December 2012 Californians and the Future 31 37. How much confidence do you have in the state government’s ability to plan for the future of California’s public higher education system —a great deal, only some, very little, or none? 13% a great deal 37 only some 34 very little 15 none 1 don’t know 38. On another topic, would you say that the supply of water is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem in your part of California? 31% big problem 28 somewhat of a problem 39 not much of a problem 2 don’t know 39. Which of the following statements is closer to your views about planning for the future in your part of California? [ rotate ] (1) We should focus on building new water storage systems and increasing the water supply; [ or ] (2) We should focus on water conservation, user allocation, pricing, and other strategies to more efficiently use the current water supply. 47% building new water storage systems 50 more efficiently use the current water supply 3 don’t know 39a. As you may know, California’s native fish populations, including salmon and steelhead trout, have been declining statewide. Do you favor or oppose increasing state spending to improve conditions for native fish? [ i f favor, ask: Do you still favor this if it means an increase in residents’ water bills?] 39% favor, even if it increases residents’ water bills 22 favor, but not if it increases residents’ water bills 34 oppose 6 don’t know 40. Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote in California? 67% yes [ask q40a] 33 no [skip to q43 ] 40a.Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or are you registered as a decline -to -state or independent voter? 45% Democrat [ask q41] 31 Republican [skip to q42 ] 3 another party (specify) [skip to q44] 21 independent [skip to q43] 41. Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 60% strong 38 not very strong 2 don’t know [skip to q 44] 42. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 54% strong 44 not very strong 2 don’t know [skip to q4 4] 43. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republ ican Party or Democratic Party? 23% Republican Party 55 Democratic Party 17 neither (volunteered) 5 don’t k now PPIC Statewide Survey December 2012 Californians and the Future 32 Now, thinking about the November 6th election, the ballot included 11 state propositions. 44. [Nov. 6 election voters only] Overall, how satisfied were you with the information you had to make choices on the ballot propositions —very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, not too satisfied, or not at all satisfied? 37% very satisfied 43 somewhat satisfied 13 not too satisfied 6 not at all satisfied 1 don’t know 45. Overall, do you think public policy decisions mad e through the initiative process by California voters are probably better or probably worse than public policy decisions made by the governor and state legislature? 59% probably better 26 probably worse 4 same (volunteered) 11 don’t know Reforms have been suggested to address issues that arise in California’s initiative process. Please say whether you would favor or oppose each of the following reform proposals. [rotate questions 46 to 47a] 46. How about requiring voters to renew initiati ves after a certain number of years, by voting on them again? 69% favor 27 oppose 4 don’t know 47. How about allowing the legislature, with the governor’s approval, to amend initiatives after a certain number of years? 48% favor 45 oppose 7 don’t know 47a. How about requiring the yes and no campaigns for initiatives to increase di sclosure of their contributors? 76% favor 18 oppose 6 don’t know 48. Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [ read list, rotate order top to bottom ] 11% very liberal 20 somewhat liberal 29 middle -of -the -road 23 somewhat conservative 14 very conservative 2 don’t know 49. Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics —a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 24% great deal 38 fair amount 33 only a little 5 none – don’t know [d1-d4a : demographic questions] d4b. [parents of children 18 or younger only] What do you hope will be the highest grade level that your youngest child will achieve: some high school; high school graduate; two -year community college graduate or career technical training; four -year college graduate; or a graduate degree after college? 2% some high school 2 high school graduate 6 two-year community college graduate or career technical training 36 four -year college graduate 51 a graduate degree after college 2 don’t know [d5-d16: demographic questions] PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ruben Barrales President and CEO San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce Angela Blackwell Founder and CEO PolicyLink Mollyann Brodie Senior Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Bill Lane Center for the American West Stanford University James E. Canales President The James Irvine Foundation Jon Cohen Director of Polling The Washington Post Russell Hancock President and CEO Joint Venture Silicon Valley Network Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Robert Lapsley President California Business Roundtabl e Carol S. Larson President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Monica Lozano Publisher and CEO La Opinión Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Lisa Pitney Vice President, Government Relations The Walt Disney Company Dan Rosenheim News Director KPIX -TV Robert K. Ross, M.D. President and CEO The California Endowment Most Reverend Jaime Soto Bishop of Sacramento Roman Catholic Diocese of Sacramento Cathy Taylor Vice President and Editorial Commentary Director Orange County Register Carol Whiteside President Emeritus Great Valley Center The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PPIC BOARD OF DIRECTORS Gary K. Hart, Chair Former State Senator and Secretary of Education State of California Mark Baldassare President and CEO Public Policy Institute of Californi a Ruben Barrales President and CEO San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce Marí a Blanco Vice President, Civic Engagement California Community Foundation Brigitte Bren Attorney Robert M. Hertzberg Vice Chair man Mayer Brown, LLP Walter B. Hewlett Chair, Board of Directors William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs David Mas Masumoto Author and Farmer Steven A. Merksamer Senior Partner Nielsen, Merksamer, Parrinello, Gross & Leoni , LLP Kim Polese Chairman ClearStreet, Inc. Thomas C. Sutton Retired Chairman and CEO Pacific Life Insurance Company The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research on major economic, social, and political issues. The institute’s goal is to raise public awareness and to give elected representatives and other decisionmakers a more informed basis for developing policies and programs. The institute’s research focuses on the underlying forces shaping California’s future, cutting across a wide range of public policy concerns, including economic development, education, environment and resources, governance, population, public finance, and social and health policy. PPIC is a private operating foundation. It does not take or support positions on any ballot measures or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. PPIC was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. Mark Baldassare is President and CEO of PPIC. Gary K. Hart is Chair of the Board of Directors. Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source and the copyright notice below is included. Copyright © 201 2 Public Policy Institute of California All rights reserved. San Francisco, CA PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, California 94111 phone : 415.291.4400 fax: 415.291.4401 PPIC SACRAMENTO CENT ER Senator Office Building 1121 L Street, Suite 801 Sacramento, California 95814 phone: 916.440.1120 fax: 916.440.1121 www.ppic.org survey@ppic.org" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 09:41:29" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(9) "s_1212mbs" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:41:29" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 09:41:29" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["guid"]=> string(51) "http://148.62.4.17/wp-content/uploads/S_1212MBS.pdf" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_mime_type"]=> string(15) "application/pdf" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" ["status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["attachment_authors"]=> bool(false) }