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string(85075) "CONTENTS About the Survey 2 Press Release 3 Post-Election Political Landscape 6 California’s Future 15 Regional Map 24 Methodology 25 Questionnaire and Results 2 7 the future DECEMBER 2014 & P P I C S TAT E W I D E S U R V E Y Californians Mark Baldassare Dean Bonner Renatta DeFever Lunna Lopes Jui Shrestha i P a ABOUT THE SURVEY The PPIC Statewide Sur vey provides policymakers, the media, and the public with objective, advocacy- free information on the perceptions, opinions, and public policy preferences of California residents. This is the 146th PPIC Statewide Sur vey in a series that was inaugurated in April 1998 and has generated a database of responses from more than 306,000 Californians. Suppor ted with funding from the Blue Shield of California Foundation, the California Postsecondar y Education Commission Foundation, The San Francisco Foundation, and the S. D. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation, Californians and the Future seek s to infor m decisionmakers, raise public awareness, and stimulate policy discussions about current issues and the state’s future. This sur vey began the week after the November 4 general election, which set a record for low turnout . T he Democrats swept the statewide offices and continue to dominate in the California Legislature and the state’s U.S. House delegation. V oters approved two propositions placed on the ballot by the governor and legislature that deal with water policy and the state budget. Voters passed a criminal sentencing initiative while rejecting two initiatives on health care and an Indian gaming referendum . Just before our sur vey began, U niversity of C alifornia president Janet Napolitano announced a proposal to raise tuition , and just after the sur vey was completed the UC Regents approved the tuition increases . O pen enrollment for health insurance on Covered California began during our fielding period. The sur vey presents the responses of 1,704 adult residents throughout California, inter viewed in English or Spanish by landline or cell phone. It includes findings on the following topics: The post -election landscape, including views on the state’s outlook; approval ratings of state elected officials ; views on the seriousness of the state budget situation, whether changes to the budget process are needed, and the preferred size of government; views on the seriousness of regional water supply issues, perceptions of the government’s response to the droug ht, and suppor t for a hypothetical local water bond; opinions of the 2010 health care reform law, as well perceptions of Covered California, the state health insurance exchange, and opinions of the long -term impact of the health reform law; perceptions of income inequality and preferences for government involvement in improving economic mobility; and trust in state government . California’s future, including the outlook for the state in 2025; confidence in state and local governments’ ability to plan for the future, views on tax extensions, including extending Proposition 30 taxes beyond 2018 and extending the sales tax to ser vices; suppor t for increasing taxes on the sale of cigarettes and alcohol as well as creating an oil extraction tax; perceptions of the state’s public higher education system and opinions about the importance of the system to the state’s future, and whether or not there will be enough college- educated residents in 20 years; perceptions of funding for the state’s public colleges and univer sities and willingness to pay higher taxes or increase student fees to maintain current funding; and seriousness of global warming and the effect of state climate action on job numbers. Time trends, national comparisons, and the extent to which Californians may differ in their perceptions, attitudes, and preferences regarding state and federal government based on political par ty affiliation, likelihood of voting, region of residence, race/ethnicity, and other demographics. This repor t may be downloaded free of charge from our website (www.ppic.org). If you have questions about the sur vey, please contact sur vey@ppic.org . Tr y our PPIC Statewide Sur vey interactive tools online at www.ppic.org/main/sur vAdvancedSearch.asp. December 2014 Californians and the Future 2 PPIC Statewide S urvey OVERALL MOOD Californians name jobs and the economy (29%) , followed by water and the drought (23%) , as the most important issues facing the state today. These findings are similar to those in our October pre-election survey (29% jobs/the economy, 26%, water/the drought), while jobs and the economy (53%) was the top issue in our December 2012 post-election survey. Central Valley residents are more likely to name water and the drought (39%) than those living elsewhere (25% San Francisco Bay Area, 16% Los Angeles, 14% Inland Empire, and 13% Orange/San Diego) . About half of California adults (50%) and likely voters (47%) say things in Califor nia are generally going in the right direction. The positive ratings among all adults were similar in our October pre-election survey (47% right direction) and in our 2012 post -election survey (44% right direction). Today, Democrats (61%) are much more likely than independents (47%) or Republicans (23%) to say the state is going in the right direction. More San Francisco Bay Area (59%) and Los Angeles (57%) residents hold this view than those living elsewhere (46% Ora nge/San Diego, 42% Inland Empire, 38% Central Valley). Across racial/ethnic groups, Asians (62%) are the most optimistic, followed by blacks (58%), Latinos (50%), and whites (45%). Optimism about the state’s direction decreases as age increases . Among thos e who approve of Governor Brown, 74 percent think the state is going in the right direction; 84 percent of those who disapprove of Brown’s job performance are pessimistic about the direction of the state. “Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Right direction 50% 61% 23% 47% 47% Wrong direction 42 33 73 41 48 Don’t know 8 6 3 12 5 Similarly, about half of all adults (52%) and likely voters (51%) are also saying that the state will have good times financially in the next 12 months. The proportion saying there would be good economic times was slightly lower in our October pre-election survey (45% ) and lower in our 2012 post-election survey (41%). The last time more than half of Californians were expecting good times was in January 2001 (51%). Today, the expectation for good economic times is more common in the San Francisco Bay Area (68%) than elsewhere (58% Los Angeles, 47% Orange/San Diego, 40% Inland Empire, 39% Central Valley) , and among Democrats (60%) and independents (53%) than Republicans (34%). Asians (73%) are much more likely than blacks (57%), Latinos (50%), and whites (47%) to expect good times finan cially. Men (56%) are somewhat more likely than women (48%) to hold this view. Among those who approve of Governor Brown, 70 percent expect good times, while 22 percent expect bad times. “Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that dur ing the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?” All adults Region Likely voters Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Good times 52% 39% 68% 58% 47% 40% 51% Bad times 39 56 22 32 41 53 40 Don’t know 9 5 10 10 12 7 9 December 2014 Californians and the Future 7 PPIC Statewide S urvey APPROVAL OF STATE EL ECTED OFFICIALS In the wake of Jerry Brown’s reelection by a 20 point margin (60% to 40%), 54 percent of adults and 57 percent of likely voters approve of the way that he is handling his job as governor. The governor’s approval rating s are similar to those in our October pre-election survey (50% adults, 54% likely voters) and are 6 points higher than in our 2012 post -election survey (48% adults, 49% likely voters). Today, m ost Democrats (73%), about half of independents (46%) , and one in three Republicans (31%) approve of the governor. The San Francisco Bay Area (71%) gives the governor higher approval ratings than other regions (55% Los Angeles, 53% Inland Empire, 48% Orang e/San Diego, 46% Central Valley). Approval is similar among men (53%) and women (56%) ; at least half across age, education, income, and racial/ethnic groups approve. In an election where most incumbents won and few seats changed parties , 41 percent of California adults and 39 percent of likely voters approve of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job. These findings reflect virtually no change in the legislature’s approval rating since our October pre- election survey (41% adults, 37% likely voters); however, they are higher than in our 2012 post -election survey (34% adults, 26% likely voters). Today, majorities of Democrats (52%) express approval of the legislature; fewer independents (34%) and Republicans (16%) do so. Approval rating s are higher in the San Francisco Bay Area (50%) and Los Angeles (48%) than elsewhere (40% Inland Empire, 38% Orange/San Diego, 29% Central Valley). Approval of the legislature is similar among men (40%) and women (42%) ; it is lower among whites (35%) than blacks (42%), Latinos (48%), and Asians (49%) . “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that…?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California Approve 54% 73% 31% 46% 57% Disapprove 28 17 60 30 34 Don ’t know 18 10 9 23 9 The California Legislature is handling its job Approve 41 52 16 34 39 Disapprove 42 31 73 53 51 Don ’t know 17 16 11 13 10 Majorities of adults (57%) and likely voters (56%) say they have a great deal or some confidence that the governor and California Legislature have the ability to solve the state’s most important problems, while four in 10 report having very little or none. Majorities of Democrats (66%) and independents (58%) have at least some confidence in their problem -solving ability, while fewer Republicans (37%) have this positive perception. In January 1999, nearly seven in 10 adults had a great deal (11%) or some confidence (58%) that the governor and legislature could solve the state’s most important problems. “How much confidence do you have in the governor and California Legislature when it comes to their ability to solve the state's most important problems— a great deal, only some, very little, or none?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind A great deal 16% 22% 9% 11% 16% Only some 41 44 28 47 40 Very little 29 24 35 27 27 None 12 8 27 13 16 Don’t know 3 3 – 2 2 December 2014 Californians and the Future 8 PPIC Statewide S urvey STATE BUDGET SITUATI ON A majority of Californians (51%) and likely voters (55%) say that the state budget situation in California is a big problem today. Negative perceptions of the state budget are unchanged among adults since our October pre-election survey (54% October, 51% today). However, higher proportions of likely voters sa id the budget situation wa s a big problem in October (62%) and in the 2012 post -election survey (74%) . This points to a decrease in fiscal concerns since the easy passage of the Proposition 2 (69% voted yes) “rainy day fund” measure on the November ballot. Today, majorities of Republicans (74%) and independents (60 %) say the state budget situation is a big problem ; fewer Democrats (46%) hold this view . San Francisco Bay Area (47%) and Los Angeles (47%) residents are less likely to think that it is a big problem than residents elsewhere (57% Central Valley, 55% Inland Empire, 51% Orange/San Diego). Whites (57%), blacks (54%), and Asians (54%) are more likely than Latinos (41 %) to hold this view. About hal f across age groups say the budget situation is a big problem. “Do you think the state budget situation in California— that is, the balance between government spending and revenues—is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Big problem 51% 46% 74% 60% 55% Somewhat of a problem 39 40 22 33 35 Not a problem 8 11 3 6 8 Don’t know 3 3 1 1 2 Still, about six in 10 adults (59%) and likely voters (61%) continue to say that the state budget process in California, in terms of both spending and revenues, is in need of major changes. Most others say that minor changes are needed (27% adults, 29% likely voters) , while few (9% adults, 7% likely voters) say the state budget process is fine the way it is , even after the passage of Proposition 2. The results were similar for adults in our September pre -election survey (53% major changes ). By contrast, i n six PPIC Sta tewide Surveys conducted in 2008 and 2009, the percentage of adults who said that major changes were needed ranged between 65 and 80 percent. Today, 75 percent of Republicans, 63 percent of independents, and 56 percent of Democrats say major changes are ne eded in the state budget process. I n light of current concerns about spending and revenues , what size government do Californians prefer? About half of adults (50%) and likely voters (45%) say that they would rather pay higher taxes and have a state govern ment that provides more services. This proportion was similar in our September pre -election survey (47% adults, 41% likely voters) and in our 2012 post-election survey (55% adults, 48% likely voters). Today, 66 percent of Democrats prefer to pay higher tax es and have a state government that provides more services, compared to 48 percent of independents and just 19 percent of Republicans . “In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more—I’d rather pay higher taxes and have a state gove rnment that provides more services, or I’d rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Higher taxes, more services 50% 66% 19% 48% 45% Lower taxes, fewer services 44 27 75 45 47 Don’t know 6 7 5 7 7 December 2014 Californians and the Future 9 PPIC Statewide S urvey WATER POLICY After passing the state water bond ( Proposition 1, 67% voted yes), 60 percent of Californians say that the water supply is a big problem in their part of the state. This level of concern is somewhat lower than before the election, in September (65%) and October (68%) , and is similar to earlier this year (55% March, 59% May, 54% July). Central Valley residents (76%) are far more likely than others to say it is a big problem . “Would you say tha t the supply of water is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem in your part of California?” All adults Region Inland/Coastal Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Inland Coastal Big problem 60% 76% 56% 56% 50% 56% 68% 56% Somewhat of a problem 21 14 25 22 23 19 17 23 Not much of a problem 18 10 18 20 26 24 15 20 Don’t know 1 – 1 2 – 1 – 1 Sixty percent of Californians also say that state and local governments are not doing enough about the current drought. This perception is unchanged from our October pre -election survey (57%). Very few residents say that governments are doing too much (5% October , 6% today). Currently, Central Valley (73%) residents are more likely than San Francisco Bay Area (60%), Los Angeles (57%), Orange/San Diego (56%), and Inland Empire (50%) residents to say governments are not doing enough. “Overall, do you think that the state and local governments are doing too much, the right amount, or not enough to respond to the current drought in California?” All adults Region Inland/Coastal Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Inland Coastal Too much 6% 4% 2% 7% 7% 5% 6% 6% The right amount 30 18 35 32 33 37 24 33 Not enough 60 73 60 57 56 50 65 57 Don’t know 5 4 3 4 4 8 6 4 Strong majorities of Californians (70% ) would vote yes if their local water district had a bond measure on the ballot. Sixty -four percent of likely voters would vote yes, just below the two -thirds vote requirement to pass local bond measures. In our September pre- election survey, a similar 72 percent of adults and 67 percent of li kely voters said they would vote yes. Today, solid majorities across regions say they would vote yes on a local bond measure. Majorities across parties would vote yes, but Democrats (73%) and independents (68%) are more likely than Republicans (58%) to say this . “If your local water district had a bond measure on the ballot to pay for water supply infrastructure projects, would you vote yes or no?” All adults Region Likely voters Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Yes 70% 73% 77% 67% 69% 63% 64% No 24 21 17 28 25 30 29 Don’t know 6 6 6 5 6 8 7 December 2014 Californians and the Future 10 PPIC Statewide S urvey HEALTH CARE REFORM As the second open enrollment period begins for the Affordable Care Act, Californians continue to be closely divided on the health reform law: 46 percent have a gen erally favorable opinion and 43 percent have a generally unfavorable opinion. Opinion has been divided each of the seven times we have asked this question dating back to December 2013. According to a November Kaiser Family Foundation poll, adults nationally are less likely to view the health care law favorably than Californians are (37 % nationally, 46% California). Partisans in California are divided —most Democrats (61%) have a favorable opinion while most Republicans (74%) have an unfavorable one —and so are i ndependents (42% favorable, 43% unfavorable). Across racial/ethnic groups, blacks (69%) are much more likely than Latinos (51%) and Asians (49%), and far more likely than whites (39%) to have a favorable opinion. Residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (55%) are the most likely to have a favorable opinion, followed by those in the Inland Empire (49%), Los Angeles (49%), Orange/San Diego (47%), and the Central Valley (36%). Fewer than half across age and education groups have a favorable opinion. Among those without health insurance, 50 percent have an unfavorable opinion. “As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a genera lly favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it?” All adults Party Have health insurance Dem Rep Ind Yes No Generally favorable 46% 61% 19% 42% 48% 41% Generally unfavorable 43 32 74 43 42 50 Don’t know 10 7 8 14 10 9 California’s health insurance marketplace, Covered California, exceeded projections last year by enrolling 1.4 million Californians. With open enrollment under way, how do Californians view the state’s marketplace? Half of Californians say it is working very (15%) or fairly well (37%), while four in 10 say it is working not too well (25%) or not at all well (14%). The perception that the state exchange is working well was similar the other two times we asked this question (54% May 2014, 46% January 2014). Two in three Democrats (66%) say Covered California is working well , while half of independents (48%) and just one in four Republicans (23%) say this . There are also differences across racial/ethnic groups , with blacks (67%) the most likely to say the exchange has been working well, followed by Latinos (57%), Asians (54%), and whites (45%). Across regions, residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (57%) are the most likely , and Central Valley (37%) residents the least likely, to say Covered California is working well. Amo ng those who view the Affordable Care Act favorably, 77 percent say the exchange is working well; among those who view the health reform law unfavorably, only 28 percent say it is working well. “As you may know, as part of the 2010 health care law the gov ernment has set up health insurance exchanges around the country that people can use to compare plans and purchase health insurance. Just your impression, how well has California’s health insurance exchange called ‘Covered California’ been working?” All adults Race/ Ethnicity Have health insurance Asians Blacks Latinos Whites Yes No Very well 15% 5% 36% 20% 11% 14% 17% Fairly well 37 49 31 37 34 37 35 Not too well 25 29 21 23 27 25 26 Not at all well 14 9 7 14 15 13 20 Don’t know 9 7 6 5 14 10 1 December 2014 Californians and the Future 11 PPIC Statewide S urvey IMPACT OF HEALTH CARE REFORM When it comes to the long-term impact of the health reform law, residents are divided on whether California will be better off (37%) or if the law will not make much difference (34%); 25 percent say the state will be worse off. More than half of Democrats (55%) say the state will be better off, while nearly six in 10 Republicans (59%) say it will be worse off. Independents are more likely to say the state will be better off (41%) than worse off (28%) or that there w ill be no difference (29%) . Blacks (52%) are the most likely to say the state will be better off, followed by Asians (44%), whites (37%), and Latinos (32%). Four in 10 uninsured Californians (42%) say the law will not make much difference. When it comes to the law’s long-term impact on uninsured Californians , adults are divided between the law making the uninsured better off (37%) and it not making much difference (34%); 24 percent say the uninsured will be worse off. More than half of Democrats (55%) say t he uninsured will be better off under the law, while fewer independents (45%) and Republicans (28%) hold this view. A plurality of blacks (49%), Asians (45%), and whites (41%) say the uninsured will be better off; a plurality of Latinos say it will n ot mak e much difference (40%). Notably, Californians with insurance (40%) are much more likely than those without insurance (24%) to say that uninsured Californians will be better off in the long run. When asked about them selves and their famil ies, 49 percent of Californians say the law will not make much difference; 26 percent say it will make them better off and 22 percent say they will be worse off. Half of independents (50%) and Democrats (49%) say it will not make much difference, while half of Republicans (51%) say it will make them worse off. Most Asians (57%) say it will not make much difference, as do half of Latinos (51%) and whites (48%), and four in 10 blacks (41%). About half of those with (49%) and without (48%) health insurance say the law won’t make much difference to them or their family. “In the long run, do you think that _______ will be better off or worse off under the health reform law, or don’t you think it will make much difference?” All adults Race/Ethnicity Have health insurance Asians Blacks Latinos Whites Yes No California Better off 37% 44% 52% 32% 37% 38% 31% Worse off 25 18 10 21 32 25 25 Not much difference 34 34 35 44 27 33 42 Don’t know/ Both (volunteered) 4 4 3 2 4 4 2 Uninsured Californians Better off 37 45 49 29 41 40 24 Worse off 24 18 22 28 21 23 29 Not much difference 34 34 25 40 32 32 43 Don’t know/ Both (volunteered) 5 4 3 3 6 5 4 You and your family Better off 26 29 40 29 21 26 27 Worse off 22 13 9 18 28 22 21 Not much difference 49 57 41 51 48 49 48 Don’t know/ Both (volunteered) 3 1 10 3 3 3 4 Seven in 10 uninsured Californians say they have been without insurance for at least a year (21 % one year to less than two years, 48% two years or more). With the open enrollment period just beginning, most uninsured Californians (71%) say they will obtain health insurance. When asked about their main reason for getting health insurance, 24 percent say they don’t want to pay the penalty, 20 percent say the law requires it, 16 percent say they are eligible for financial help, and 13 percent say a new insurance option became available . December 2014 Californians and the Future 12 PPIC Statewide S urvey INCOME INEQUALITY AN D THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT In the wake of the Great Recession , attention has increasingly f ocused on income inequality. When asked if California is divided into the haves and have -nots, a record share of Californians (68%) say yes . Findings were similar in December 2013 (66%), December 2011 (63%), and in September 2002 (61%), but fewer held this view in January 1999 (56%). Solid majorities across regions say the state is divided (77% San Francisco Bay Area, 70% Central Valley, 70% Los Angeles, 62% Orange/San Diego, and 60% Inland Empire). Blacks (82%) are the most likely racial/ethnic group to ho ld this view, followed by Asians (76%), Latinos (69%), and whites (64%). Two in three or more across age, education, and income groups say the state is divided into haves and have -nots , as do both men (67%) and women (70%). Notably, there is a partisan div ide, with most Democrats (76%) and independents (67%) thinking the state is divided this way, while half of Republicans (52%) hold this view. “Some people think that California is divided into economic groups, the haves and have-nots, while others think it is not divided that way. Do you think that California is divided into haves and have-nots, or do you think that California is not divided that way?” All adults Household income Race/ethnicity Under $40,000 $40,000 to $80,000 $80,000 or more Asians Blacks Latinos Whites Divided into haves and have-nots 68% 71% 68% 66% 76% 82% 69% 64% Not divided this way 28 25 29 33 24 16 28 31 Don’t know 4 4 3 2 – 2 3 5 When asked to place themselves into the haves or the have- nots, Californians are divided: 40 percent say haves, 46 percent say have -nots. Findings were similar in December 2013 (40% haves, 45% have - nots) and December 2011 (39% haves, 48% have -nots). Findings in pre-Great Recession surveys were d ifferent , with about six in 10 saying they were among the haves (60% September 2002, 57% January 1999). Californians with incomes under $40,000 (23%) and those earning from $40,000 to $80,000 (35%) are far less likely than those earning $80,000 or more (78%) to say they are a member of the haves. Similarly, blacks and Latinos (22% each) are far less likely than Asians (52%) and whites (54%) to hold this view. Republicans (56%) are much more likely than independents (43%) or Democrats (40%) to say they belong to the haves ; in fact, a plurality of Democrats (46%) say they belong to the have -nots . “If you had to choose, which of these groups are you in— the haves or have-nots?” All adults Household income Race/ethnicity Under $40,000 $40,000 to $80,000 $80,000 or more Asians Blacks Latinos Whites The haves 40% 23% 35% 78% 52% 22% 22% 54% The have- nots 46 65 50 11 37 68 67 30 Neither (volunteered) 9 6 10 9 8 7 8 10 Don’t know 5 5 4 2 3 2 3 6 Fifty -two percent of Californians say the government should do more to make sure that all Californians have an equal opportunity, while 41 percent say all people have an equal opportunity to get ahead. Findings were similar in December 2013 (49% government should do more, 43% all have equal opportunity) and in December 2011 (54% government should do more, 37% all have equal opportunity). Six in 10 Democrats (60%) and half of independents (52%) say the government should do more, while six in 10 Republicans (62%) say all people have an equal opportunity. Most blacks (64%), Latinos (60%), and Asians (57%) say government should do more, while just 44 percent of whites hold this view. The belief that government should do more decreases as income and age increase. December 2014 Californians and the Future 13 PPIC Statewide S urvey TRUST IN STATE GOVER NMENT Following the November 2 014 election, Californians continue to be skeptical of the state government. Only one in three adults say they trust the state government to do what is right just about always (7%) or most of the time (25%). Indeed, a strong majority of Californians say that you can trust the government to do what is right only some of the time (61%) or volunteer they trust it none of the time (5%). These findings are similar to those in our May 2014 survey (59% only some of the time, 8% none of the time) and our December 2013 survey (63% only some of the time, 8% none of the time). Majorities of Californians across all regions and demographic groups express distrust towards the state government. In context of these high levels of distrust, majorities of adults (54%) and lik ely voters (59%) think the government wastes a lot of the money paid in taxes. These findings are similar to those in December 2013 , when 54 percent of adults and 60 percent of likely voters said the government wastes a lot of money. Republicans ( 78%) are much more likely than i ndependents (60%) and Democrats (46%) to say the government wastes a lot of money. Older Californians (58% ages 35 to 54, 60% ages 55 or older) ar e more likely than adults younger than age 35 (44%) to say that the state government wa stes a lot of taxpayer money. There are regional differences as well , with Central Valley (63%) residents the most likely to say a lot of money is wasted, followed by those in Orange/San Diego (58%), the Inland Empire (56%), Los Angeles (52%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (47%). “Do you think the people in state government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes, waste some of it, or don’t waste very much of it?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind A lot 54% 46% 78% 60% 59% Some 35 44 20 32 34 Don’t waste very much 8 9 2 5 6 Don’t know 2 2 – 3 1 Two in three Californians (67%) and likely voters (68%) say the state government is run by a few big interests. These results are similar to those in December 2013, when 65 percent of adults and 71 percent of likely voters felt the government was run by a few big interests. Across parties, Republicans (78%) are more likely than Democrats (65%) to say that the state government is run by a few big interests. Notably, t he proportion of independents (71%) who hold this view has increased by 10 points since May (61%). At least six in 10 Californians across age, income, race/ethnicity, and education groups believe the state government is pretty much run by a few big interests. Regionally, Californians in the Central Valley (78%) are the most likely to hold this view, followed by those in Orange/San Diego (75%), the Inland Empire (70%), Los Angeles (61%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (56%). “Would you say the state government is pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves, or that it is run for the benefit of all of the people?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind A few big interests 67% 65% 78% 71% 68% Benefit of all of the people 28 28 16 25 26 Don’t know 5 7 5 4 6 December 2014 Californians and the Future 14 CALIFORNIA’S FUTURE KEY FINDINGS In a departure from 10 years ago, more Californians think the state will be a better place to live in 2025. However, 55 percent of Californians think that when children today grow up they will be wor se off financially than their parents. (page 16 ) Six in 10 Californians have at least some confidence in both the state government’s and their local government’s ability to plan for the state’s future and growth. ( page 17) Californians are deeply divided along party lines about extending the Proposition 30 tax increases. Most are opposed to extending the sales tax to services that are not currently taxe d, but support is higher if the proposal involves lowering the overall tax rate. (page 18 ) Strong major ities favor increases in state taxes on cigarettes and alcohol. But Californians are divided along partisan lines about taxing the extraction of oil and natural gas. (page 19 ) One in four Californians say the overall quality of California’s higher educati on system is a big problem; six in 10 say affordability is a big problem. ( page 20) Nearly all Californians say the higher education system is important to the state’s future ; about half say the state will not have enough college -educated workers to meet future demand . Six in 10 adults say the current level of state funding is not enough and a record- high share oppose raising student fees. (pages 21, 22 ) Most Californians perceive global warming as a threat to California’s future; four in 10 say that there will be more jobs around the state if California does things to address global warming. ( page 23) 71 31 56 24 64 36 0 20 40 60 80 DemRepInd Percent registered voters Favor Oppose Support For Extending Proposition 30 TaxIncreases 25 37 49 28 20 29 0 20 40 60 80 20042014 Percent all adults Better place to live Worse place to live No change Outlook on California in 2025 656966 48 0 20 40 60 80 AsianBlackLatinoWhite Percent all adults Belief that State Funding for Public Colleges and Universities is Not Enough December 2014 Californians and the Future 15 PPIC Statewide S urvey FUTURE OUTLOOK A plurality of adults (37%), likely voters (36%), and parents of children age 18 or younger (36%) think that California will be a better place to live in 2025 than it is now. Fewer say that it will be a worse place (28% adults, 34% likely voters, 29% parents) or that there will be no change (29% adults, 25% likely voters, 30% parents). Positive perceptions among adults about the state’s future are similar to two years ago (42% December 2012) but 12 points higher than a decade ago (25% August 2004). Democrats (42%) and independents (36%) are more likely than Republicans (25%) to think California will be a better place. T hose age 18 to 34 (45%) are more likely than older Californians (34% age 35 to 54, 32% age 55 and older) to hold this view. Blacks (49%), Asians (43%), and Latinos (40%) are somewhat more optimistic than whites (33%). Pluralities across regions and genders are optimistic about the future. “Overall, do you think that in 2025 California will be a better place to live than it is now or a worse place to live than it is now or will there be no change?” Better place Worse place No change Don’t know All adults 37% 28 % 29 % 6 % Likely voters 36 34 25 6 Parents of children 18 years or younger 36 29 30 5 Party Democrats 42 25 26 7 Republicans 25 44 25 6 Independents 36 35 26 3 R ace/ Ethnicity Asians 43 23 32 2 Blacks 49 30 18 3 Latinos 40 23 31 6 White 33 34 26 7 Age 18–34 45 18 35 2 35 –54 35 32 26 6 55 and older 32 34 25 10 Still, a majority of adults (55%) think that when children in California today grow up they will be worse off financially than their parents; 37 percent think they will be better off. A majority of blacks (56%) and Latinos (51%) think they will be better off; whites (66%) and Asians (56%) say they will be worse off. Californians age 55 and older (62%) and those age 35 to 54 (54%) think children today will be worse off, those age 18 to 34 are divided. Republicans (72%) are more likely than independents (60%) and Democrats (56%) to think children today will be worse off financially than their parents. Solid majorities of Californians with at least some college education (62%) and those with incomes of $40,000 or more (64%) say children today will be worse off ; those with less education and lower incomes are divided. “When children today in California grow up, do you think they will be better off or worse off financially than their parents?” All adults Age Race/ Ethnicity 18–34 35 –54 55 and older Asians Blacks Latinos Whites Better off 37% 46 % 38 % 28 % 39 % 56 % 51 % 24 % Worse off 55 49 54 62 56 39 42 66 Same (volunteered) 3 3 3 4 1 1 2 5 Don’t know 5 3 5 7 4 4 4 5 December 2014 Californians and the Future 16 PPIC Statewide S urvey GOVERNMENT PLANNING Six in 10 adults have a great deal (17%) or only some (46%) confidence in the state government’s ability to plan for the state’s future and growth. About one in three have very little (25%) or no confidence (10%). The share having at least some confidence is lower than it was in October 2008 (50%) but is similar to August 2004 (58%) and August 2006 (61%). Democrats (73%) and independents (58%) are much more likely than Republicans (43%) to have at least some confidence in the state government’s ability to plan for the future. Across regions, residents in Los Angeles (66%), the San Francisco Bay Ar ea (66%), Orange/San Diego (64%), and the Inland Empire (63%) are more likely than those in the Central Valley (55%) to have at least some confidence. Asians (79%) are most likely to have confidence, followed by blacks (73%), Latinos (66%), and w hites (58%). Californians age 18 to 34 (70%) are more likely than older Californians to express at least some confidence (60% age 35 to 54, 61% age 55 and older). “How much confidence do you have in the state government's ability to plan for the state's future and growth— a great deal, only some, very little, or none?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind A great deal 17% 20 % 9 % 11 % 16 % Only some 46 53 34 47 43 Very little 25 20 35 25 27 None 10 5 21 15 12 Don’t know 2 2 1 2 1 Californians’ confidence in the ability of their local governments to plan for growth and the future in their part of California is similar to their confidence in state government: 19 percent express a great deal of confidence, 48 percent only some, 23 percent very little, and 9 percent none. Confidence was similar in June 2004 (15% a great deal, 47% only some, 28% very little, 8% none). Today, similar shares of Republicans ( 69%), Democrats ( 64%), and independents ( 63%) have at least some confidence. Notably, Republicans are far more likely to have confidence in their local governments ( 69%) than in state government ( 43%) when it comes to planning for the future. More than six in 10 across regions have a great deal or some confidence ( 69% San Francisco Bay Area, 68% Los Angeles, 65% Central Valley, 65% Orange/San Diego, 64% Inland Empire). Two in three or more across racial/ethnic groups have at least some confidence and confidence rises with as education and income levels increase . “H ow much confidence do you have in your local governments’ abilities to plan for growth and the future in your part of California —a great deal, only some, very little, or none?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind A great deal 19% 20 % 19 % 17 % 19 % Only some 48 44 50 46 48 Very little 23 23 21 23 22 None 9 11 10 12 9 Don’t know 2 2 – 3 2 Only 9 percent of Californians have a great deal of confidence in the ability of both the state government and their local governments to plan for the future; 52 percent say they have at least some confidence in both. December 2014 Californians and the Future 17 PPIC Statewide S urvey TAX EXTENSIONS Two years after Californians passed Proposition 30 (55% voted yes), a majority of adults (53%) and likely voters (52%) would favor extending the tax increases , which are set to expire in 2018. There are strong partisan differences : 71 percent of Democrats favor , 64 percent of Republicans oppose. Fifty -six percent of independents favor an extension. Regionally, Californians in the San Francisco Bay Area (63%) are the most likely to favor extending the Proposition 30 tax increases , while those in Orange/San Diego (46%) are the least likely to do so. More than half of Californians across income groups favor extending the tax increases. Californians age 18 to 34 (61% ) are more likely than older Californians to favor extending the Propos ition 30 tax increases (52% age 35 to 54, 47% age 55 or older). While a majority of women (57%) favor an extension, half of men (49%) hold this view . Blacks (72%) and Asians (61%) are more likely to favor extending the tax increases than Latinos and whites (51% each). “As you may know, voters passed Proposition 30 in November 2012. It increased taxes on earnings over $250,000 for seven years and sales taxes by one quarter cent for four y ears, to fund schools and guarantee public safety realignment funding. Do you favor or oppose extending the Proposition 30 tax increases which are set to fully expire in 2018?” Favor Oppose Don’t know All adults 53% 40 % 6 % Likely voters 52 43 5 Parents of children 18 years or younger 54 41 5 Party Democrats 71 24 5 Republicans 31 64 5 Independents 56 36 7 Race /E thnicity Asians 61 35 4 Blacks 72 23 5 Latinos 51 42 7 Whites 51 43 6 When asked about a proposal to extend the state sales tax to services that are not currently taxed, more than six in 10 Californians (62%) and likely voters (63%) express opposition. However, when Californians are asked about extending the state sales tax to services not currently taxed while lowering the overall sales tax rate, opposition drops to 48 percent among adults and 49 percent among likely voters. Though a plurality of Democrats and independents (46% each) would support extending the sales tax to services not covered while lowering the overall rate, a majority of Republicans (60%) oppose this proposal. “For each of the following, please say if you favor or oppose the proposal. How about…?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Extending the state sales tax to services that are not currently taxed Favor 29% 33% 19% 30% 25% Oppose 62 55 74 59 63 Don’t know 9 12 7 11 11 Extending the state sales tax to services that are not currently taxed while lowering the overall sales tax rate Favor 42 46 30 46 39 Oppose 48 40 60 44 49 Don’t know 10 14 10 9 12 December 2014 Californians and the Future 18 PPIC Statewide S urvey TAX REVENUES Californians appear to be receptive to some targeted tax increases. Strong majorities favor increasing state taxes on the purchase of cigarettes (74%) and alcoholic beverages (68%). Support for increasing taxes on cigarettes is at its highest point since PPIC began asking this question in January 2006. Similarly, support for increasing taxes on alcoholic beverages is at its highest point since Ma rch 2013. While Californians favor increasing taxes on cigarettes and alcohol, they are divided on whether to tax the extraction of oil and natural gas in California (45% favor, 49% oppose). Support was similar the other two times we asked this question (43% May 2014, 42% March 2013). “For each of the following, please say if you favor or oppose the proposal. How about …?” Increasing state taxes on the purchase of cigarettes Increasing state taxes on the purchase of alcoholic beverages Taxing the extraction of oil and natural gas in California Favor 74% 68 % 45 % Oppose 25 30 49 Don’t know 1 1 5 At least six in 10 Californians across all regions and demographic groups favor increasing taxes on cigarettes and on alcoholic beverages. L ikely voters are slightly less likely than adults overall to favor increasing taxes on the purchase of cigarettes and alcohol, but are slightly more likely to favor taxing the extraction of oil and natural gas. Though majorities of Democrats, Republicans , and independents favor increasing taxes on cigarettes and alcohol, partisan differences are starker when it comes to taxing the extraction of oil and gas. A majority of Democrats (58%) support taxing oil and gas extraction in California, but only 34 percen t of Republicans say they would favor such a tax. Half of independents (49%) are in favor. The likelihood that Californians will express support for taxing the extraction of oil and gas increases as education and income levels rise . Percent saying favor Increasing taxes on cigarettes Increasing taxes on alcohol Taxing the extraction of oil and natural gas All adults 74% 68% 45% Likely voters 68 62 52 Parents of children 18 or younger 78 73 43 Party Dem 78 69 58 Rep 58 52 34 Ind 73 73 49 Race/ Ethnicity Asians 81 78 48 Blacks 77 71 50 Latinos 78 76 43 Whites 69 60 47 Household income Under $40,000 76 74 42 $40,000 to under $80,000 76 64 46 $80,000 or more 71 63 58 The share of Californians saying that the state and local tax system is in need of major changes (44%) is at its lowest since PPIC began asking this question in January 2010. Thirty- eight percent say the tax system needs minor changes, and 16 percent say i t is fine the way it is. Republicans (60%) are much more likely than independents (43%) and Democrats (40%) to say that major changes are needed. December 2014 Californians and the Future 19 PPIC Statewide S urvey PERCEPTIONS OF CALIFORNIA’S HIGHER EDUCATION SYS TEM At a time when much discussion about the future of higher education is taking place, a majority of Californians (59%) say the overall affordability of higher education is a big problem. The share saying that affordability is a big problem today is slightly lower than in December 2012 (65%). In PPIC surveys between 2007 and 2011, the share calling affordability a big problem was similar to today ’s share. By comparison, one in four Californians (25%) say the overall quality of higher education is a big problem (36% somewhat of a problem, 34% not much of a problem) . In surveys dating back to 2007, fewer than one in four saw quality as a big problem . “I’m going to read you a list of issues people have mentioned when talking about California’s higher education system today. For each one, please tell me if you think it is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem. How about… ?” The overall affordability of higher education for students The overall quality of higher education Big problem 59% 25% Somewhat of a problem 27 36 Not much of a problem 12 34 Don’t know 1 5 Californians age 18 to 34 (63%) are the most likely to say affordability is a big problem , followed by those age 35 to 54 (59%) and those age 55 and older (56%). Majorities across racial/ethnic groups see it as a big problem —Asians (64%) are the most likely to hold this view , followed by whites (59%), blacks (57%), and Latinos (57%) . Across regions, San Francisco Bay Area residents (68%) are the most likely to view affordability as a big problem , followed by those in O range/San Diego (59%), Los Angeles (57%), the Inland Empire ( 57%), and the Central Valley (56 %). Across parties, Democrats (65%) are the most likely to view affordability as a big problem , followed by independents (61%) and Republicans (55%). When it comes to the quality of higher education, fewer than four in 10 residents across regions and demographic groups say it is a big problem. About one in four across regions view quality as a big problem. Blacks (35%) are the most likely to hold this v iew, followed by whites (25%), Latinos (24%), and Asians (24%). Fewer than a third across parties think quality is a big problem. Percent saying big problem Overall affordability Overall quality All adults 59% 25% Likely voters 60 25 Parents of children 18 or younger 62 25 Age 18–34 63 21 35–54 59 25 55 and older 56 30 Race/Ethnicity Asians 64 24 Blacks 57 35 Latinos 57 24 Whites 59 25 Household income Under $40,000 57 25 $40,000 to under $80,000 61 29 $80,000 or more 63 23 December 2014 Californians and the Future 20 PPIC Statewide S urvey EDUCATING CALIFORNIA ’S FUTURE WORKFORCE An overwhelming majority of Californians say the state’s public higher education system is very (76%) or somewhat (19%) important to the quality of life and economic vitality of the state over the next 20 years. The share saying it is very important is down from its record high in December 2012 (85%). More than seven in 10 Californians since 2007 have said it is very important. While majorities across all groups hold this view , there are differences across parties, regions, and demographic groups. Democrats (84%) and independents (79%) are much more likely than Republicans (67%) to say the public higher education system is very important for the future. Across regions, residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (83%) and Los Angeles (80%) are more likely to hold this view than residents in the Inland Empire (73%), Central Valley (73%), and Orange/San Diego (71%). Californians age 18 to 34 (80%) and age 35 to 54 (79%) are more likely than residents age 55 years and older (68%) to say that public higher education is very important for the future of the state. College graduates (82%), naturalized citizens (86%), parents with children age 18 or younger (83%), and public school parents (84%) are more likely to hold this view. “In general, how important is California’s public higher education system to the quality of life and economic vitality of the state over the next 20 years?” All adults Party Age Dem Rep Ind 18–34 35 –54 55 and older Very important 76% 84 % 67 % 79 % 80 % 79 % 68 % Somewhat important 19 14 23 17 16 17 25 Not too important 3 1 3 3 3 2 4 Not at all important 1 1 5 1 1 2 2 Don’t know 1 1 1 – – – 1 A p luralit y of Californians (47%) think that if current trends continue California will not have enough college- educated residents to meet economic demand in 20 years. Thirty-two percent of Californians say there will be just enough and 17 percent say there will be more than enough college -educated residents in the state. PPIC research has shown that the state will have a shortage of 1 million college- educated workers by 2025. The share of those who say the state will face a shortage (47%) is down somewhat from December 2012 (56%) and November 2010 (56%) but similar to most previous surveys (49% November 2011, 49% November 2009, 47% November 2008, 52% October 2007). There are differences across regions, parties, and demographic groups. Across regions, San Francisco Bay Area residents ( 57%) are most likely to think there won’t be enough college graduates , followed by residents of the Central Valley (50%) , Orange/San Diego (45%) , the Inland Empire (45%), and Los Angeles (42% ). Democrats (54%) and independents (52%) are more likely than Republicans (42%) to hold this view. S ix in 10 Californians have either a great deal (14%) or some confidence (46%) in the government’s abilit y to plan for the future of the higher education system , while four in 10 say they have very little (28%) or none (11%). “In thinking ahead 20 years, if current trends continue, do you think California will have more than enough, not enough, or just enoug h college-educated residents needed for the jobs and skills likely to be in demand?” All adults Education Race/Ethnicity High school or less Some college College graduate Asians Blacks Latinos Whites Not enough 47% 45 % 46 % 51 % 56 % 42 % 47 % 44 % Just enough 32 32 32 31 28 37 34 31 More than enough 17 19 18 14 14 18 16 19 Don’t know 4 4 4 4 2 3 2 5 December 2014 Californians and the Future 21 PPIC Statewide S urvey CALIFORNIA’S HIGHER EDUCATION FUNDING When it comes to the level of state funding for California’s public colleges and universities, Californians continue to say it is not enough. Today, 59 percent of Californians say funding is not enough, while far fewer say it is more than enough (12%) or j ust enough (24%). The view that there is not enough funding was much higher in November 2011 and 2010 (74% each) but the same in October 2007 (57% ). Today, Democrats (74%) are the most likely to say there is not enough funding, followed by independents (57 %) and Republicans (38%). Majorities across regions and demographic groups —except whites (48%) —think there is not enough funding. Residents of Los Angeles (63%) are the most likely to hold this view , followed by residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (60% ), the Inland Empire (59%), Orange/San Diego (57%), and the Central Valley (56%). Women (63%) are somewhat more likely than men (54%) to say funding is not enough. Across racial/ethnic groups, blacks (69%), Latinos (66%), and Asians (65%) are much more likely than whites (48%) to express this view. “Do you think the current level of state funding for California’s public colleges and universities is more than enough, just enough, or not enough?” All adults Party Race/Ethnicity Dem Rep Ind Asians Blacks Latinos Whites Not enough 59% 74 % 38 % 57 % 65 % 69 % 66 % 48 % Just enough 24 15 28 31 26 23 22 26 More than enough 12 5 28 10 6 6 9 16 Don’t know 6 6 6 2 3 2 3 10 However, m ajorities of adults (56%) and likely voters (58%) are not willing to pay higher taxes to maintain current funding levels for public colleges and universities. Seventy -six percent of Republicans would not pay higher taxes for this purpose, compared to 51 percent of independents and 44 percent of Democrats. With the exception of the San Francisco Bay Area (45%) , a majority of residents across regions would not pay higher taxes to maintain higher education funding (62% Orange/San Diego, 60% Inland Empire, 58% Central Valley, and 56% Los Angeles). At least half across racial/ethnic groups oppose higher taxes, and opposition increases as age increases. As student tuition increases are being discussed, three -quarters of both adults and likely voters (77% each) sa y they are not willing to increase student fees to maintain current level s of funding for public colleges and universities. More than seven in 10 Californians across parties, regions, and demographic groups oppose student fee increases . Opposition to raising student fees has increased 15 points since the survey first asked this question in 2008 and is at an all -time high (62% November 200 8, 68% November 2009, 62% November 2010, 69% November 2011, 77% today). “What if the state said it needed more money just to maintain current funding for public colleges and universities. Would you be willing to…?” All Adults Party Likely Voters Dem Rep Ind Pay higher taxes for this purpose, or not Yes 42 % 54 % 22 % 47 % 40 % No 56 44 76 51 58 Don't know 2 2 2 2 2 Increase student fees for this purpose, or not Yes 21 19 22 15 20 No 77 78 76 83 77 Don't know 2 3 1 2 2 December 2014 Californians and the Future 22 PPIC Statewide S urvey CLIMATE CHANGE AND CALIFORNIA’S ECONOMY Governor Brown has said climate change will be a priority in his fourth term , and President Obama recently reached a climate change agreement with China. With climate change on the government agenda, how do Californians view this issue? Three in four Californians (76%) say that global warming is a very serious (53%) or somewhat (23%) se rious threat to California’s future economy and quality of life. More than seven in 10 Californians have expressed this view since we started asking the question in July 2005. There are partisan differences: Democrats (70%, up 11 points since July) are far more likely than independents (46%) and Republicans (20%) to consider global warming a very serious threat. More than six in 10 blacks (68%) and Latinos (63%) say global warming is a very serious threat, compared to half of Asians (53%) and four in 10 whi tes (42%). Californians age 18 t o 34 (57%) and between age 35 to 54 (55%) are somewhat more likely than those age 55 and above (46%) to consider global warming a very serious threat. Californians with household incomes less than $40,000 (65%) are far more likely than those with higher incomes to hold this view (42% $40,000 --$79,000, 43% $80,000 or more). “How serious of a threat is global warming to the economy and quality of life for California’s future?” All adults Race/Ethnicity Likely voters Asians Blacks Latinos Whites Very serious 53% 53 % 68 % 63 % 42 % 46 % Somewhat serious 23 28 17 25 22 21 Not too serious 11 12 8 7 15 14 Not at all serious 12 5 6 4 20 18 Don’t know 2 1 2 1 2 1 Four in 10 adults (43%) think that California ’s efforts to reduce global warming will result in more jobs for people around the state, while 21 percent say it will result in fewer jobs and 29 percent say it will not affect job numbers. In surveys dating back to July 2010, a plurality of Californians has said taking action on global warming will result in more jobs. A majority of Democrats (56%) hold this view, as do a plurality of independents (47%). Republicans are divided (29% more jobs, 30% fewer jobs, 30% no effect on jobs). Californians in the Inlan d Empire (56%) are the most likely and those in Orange/San Diego (36%) the least likely to believe efforts to reduce global warming will lead to more jobs. Four in 10 residents in Los Angeles (43%), the Central Valley (42%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (42%) agree. Adults age 18 to 34 (52%) are more likely than older Californians (40% age 35 to 54, 37% age 55 and older) to believe that efforts to reduce global warming will result in more jobs. “Do you think that California doing things to reduce global w arming will cause there to be more jobs for people around the state, will cause there to be fewer jobs, or won’t affect the number of jobs for people around the state?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind More jobs 43% 56 % 29 % 47 % 47 % Fewer jobs 21 13 30 23 21 Wouldn’t affect number of jobs 29 23 30 23 23 Don’t know 7 8 11 6 8 December 2014 Californians and the Future 23 REGIONAL MAP December 2014 Californians and the Future 24 METHODOLOGY The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance from Dean Bonner, associate survey director and project manager for this survey, and survey research associates Renatta DeFever, L unna Lopes, and Jui Shrestha. This survey on Californians and the Future is supported with funding from the Blue Shield of California Foundation, the California Postsecondar y Education Commission Foundati on, The San Francisco Foundation, and the S. D. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation. The PPIC Statewide Survey invites input, comments, and suggestions from policy and public opinion experts and from its own advisory committee, but survey methods, questions, and content are determined solely by PPIC’s survey team. Findings in this report are based on a survey of 1,70 4 California adult residents, including 1,108 interviewed on landline telephones and 596 interviewed on cell phones. Interviews took an average of 20 minutes to complete. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights from November 10–17 , 2014. Landline interviews were conducted using a computer -generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible for selection, and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as six times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult r espondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Cell phone interviews were conducted using a computer -generated random sample of cell phone numbers. All cell phone numbers with California area codes were eligible for selection, and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as eight times to increase the likelihood of reaching an eligible respondent. Once a cell phone user was reached, it was verified that this person was age 18 or older, a resident of California, and in a safe place to continue the survey (e.g., not driving). Cell phone respondents were offered a small reimbursement to help defray the cost of the call. Cell phone interviews were conducted with adult s who have cell phone service only and with those who have both cell phone and landline service in the h ousehold. Live landline and cell phone interviews were conducted by Abt SRBI, Inc., in English and Spanish, according to respondents’ preferences. Accent on Languages, Inc., translated new survey questions into Spanish. Abt SRBI uses the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2010– 2012 American Community Survey’s (ACS) Public Use Microdata Series for California (with regional coding information from the University of Minnesota’s Integrated Public Use Microdata Series for California) to compare certain demographic characteristics of the survey sample— region, age, gender, race/ethnicity, and education —with the characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the ACS figures. To estimate landline and cell phone service in California, Abt SRBI used 2012 state -level estimates released by the National Center for Health Statistics —which used data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the ACS —and 2013 estimates for the West Census Region in the latest NHIS report. The estimates for California were then compared against landline and cell phone service reported in this survey. We also used voter registration data from the California Secretary of State to compare the party registration of registered voters in our sample to party registration statewide. The landline and cell phone samples were then integrated using a frame integration weight, while sample December 2014 Californians and the Future 25 PPIC Statewide Survey balancing adjusted for differences across regional, age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, telephone service, and party registration groups. The sampling error, taking design effects from weighting into consideration, is ±3. 7 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total unweighted sample of 1,704 adults. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 3. 7 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for unweighted subgroups is larger: for the 1,382 registered voters, the sampling error is ±4. 0 percent; for the 1,058 likely voters, it is ±4.6 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. We present results for five geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “ Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, “Inland Empire” refers to Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, and “Orange/San Diego” refers to Orange and San Diego Counties. Residents of other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, likely voters, and primary likely voters, but sample sizes for these less populous areas are not large enough to report separately. In several places, we refer to coastal and inland counties. The “ coastal” region refers to the counties along the California coast from Del Norte County to San Diego County and includes all the San Francisco Bay Area counties. All other counties are included in the “inland” region. We present specific results for non- Hispanic whites and also for Latinos, who account for about a third of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest -growing voter groups. We also present results for non -Hispanic Asians, who make up about 14 percent of the state’s adult population, and non- Hispanic blacks, who comprise about 6 percent. Results for other racial/ethnic groups—such as Native Americans —are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes are not large enough for separate analysis. We compare the opinions of those who report they are registered Democrats, registered Republicans, and decline -to -state or independent voters; the results for those who say they are registered to vote in other parties are not large enough for separate analysis. We also analyze the responses of likely voters —so designated by their responses to voter registration survey questions, previous election participation, and current interest in politics. The percentages presented in the report tables and in the questionnaire may not add to 100 due to rounding. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey results to those in our earlier surveys and to those in national surveys by the Kaiser Family Foundation. A dditional details about our methodology can be found at www.ppic.org/content/other/SurveyMethodology.pdf and are available upon request through surveys@ppic.org . December 2014 Californians and the Future 26 QUESTIONNAIRE AND RESULTS CALIFORNIANS AND THE FUTURE November 1 0–1 7, 2014 1 ,704 California Adult Residents: English , Spanish MARGIN OF ERROR ±3.7 % AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMP LE PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 1 00 DUE TO ROUNDING 1. First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today? [code, don’t read ] 29% jobs, economy 23 water, drought 7 education , schools, teachers 7 immigration, illegal immigration 5 state budget, deficit, taxes 4 crime, gangs, drugs 4 health care, health reform, Obamacare 3 housing costs, availability 14 other 4 don’t know 2. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California? 54% approve 28 disapprove 18 don’t know 3. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job? 41% approve 42 disapprove 17 don’t know 3 a. How much confidence do you have in the g overnor and California Legislature when it com es to their ability to solve the state’s most important problems —a great deal, only some, very little, or none? 16% a great deal 41 only some 29 very little 12 none 3 don’t know 4 . Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 50% right direction 42 wrong direction 8 don’t know 5. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 52% good times 39 bad times 9 don’t know 6. Some people think that California is divided into economic groups, the haves and have - nots, while others think it is not divided that way. Do you think that California is divided into haves and have -nots, or do you think that California is not divided that way? 68% divided into haves and have- nots 28 not divided that way 4 don’t know December 2014 Californians and the Future 27 PPIC Statewide Survey 7. If you had to choose, which of these groups are you in— the haves or have- nots? 40% haves 46 have -nots 9 neither (volunteered) 5 don’t know 7a. Do you think that in California today [ rotate ] (1 ) all people have an e qua l opportunity to get ahead, [or] (2 ) the government should do more to make sure that all Californians have an e qual opportunity to get ahead. 41% people have eq ual opportunity 52 government should do more 1 both (volunteered) 3 neither (volunteered) 3 don’t know Next, 8. How much confidence do you have in the state government’s ability to plan for the state’s future and growth —a great deal, on ly some, very little, or none? 17% a great deal 46 only some 25 very little 10 none 2 don’t know 8a. How much confidence do you have in your local governments’ abilities to plan for growth and the future in your part of California —a great deal, only some, very little, or none? 19% a great deal 48 only some 23 very little 9 none 2 don’t know 9. Ove rall, do you think that in 2025 California will be a better place to live than it is now or a worse place to live than it is now or will there be no change? 37% better place 28 worse place 29 no change 6 don’t know 9a. When children today in Californi a grow up, do you think they will be better off or worse off financially than their parents ? 37% better off 55 worse off 3 same (volunteered) 5 don’t know 1 0. Next, do you think the state budget situation in California —that is, the balance between g overnment spending and revenues —is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today? 51% big problem 39 somewhat of a problem 8 not a problem 3 don’t know 11 . In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more — [rotate ] (1 ) I’d rather pay higher taxes and have a state government tha t provides more services, [or] ( 2 ) I’d rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services? 50% higher taxes and more services 44 lower taxes and fewer services 6 don’t know 12 . Overall, do you think the state budget process in California, in terms of both revenues and spending, is in need of major changes, minor changes, or do you think it is fine the way it is? 59% major changes 27 minor changes 9 fine the way it is 4 don’t know December 2014 Californians and the Future 28 PPIC Statewide Survey 13. As you may know, voters passed Proposition 3 0 in November 20 12 . It increased taxes on earnings over $2 50,000 for seven years and sales taxes by one q uarter cent for four years, to fund schools and guarantee public safety realignment funding. Do you favor or oppose extending the Proposition 30 tax increases which are set to fully expire in 2 0 18? 53% favor 40 oppose 6 don’t know For each of the following, please say if you favor or oppose the proposal. [rotate questions 14 to 17] 14. How about extending the state sales tax to services that are not currently taxed while lowering the overall sales tax rate? 42% favor 48 oppose 10 don’t know 14a. How about extending the state sal es tax to services that are not currently taxed? 29% favor 62 oppose 9 don’t know 1 5. How about increasing state taxes on the purchase of alcoholic beverages? 68% favor 30 oppose 1 don’t know 1 6. How about increasing state taxes on the purchase of cigarettes? 74% favor 25 oppose 1 don’t know 1 7. How about taxing the extraction of oil and natural gas in California? 45% favor 49 oppose 5 don’t know 1 8. Overall, do you think the state and local tax system is in need of major changes, minor changes, or do you think it is fine the way it is? 44% major changes 38 minor changes 16 fine the way it is 2 don’t know 1 9. On another topic, would you say that the supply of water is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem in your part of California? 60% big problem 21 somewhat of a problem 18 not much of a problem 1 don’t know 2 0. Overall, do you think that the state and local gov ernments are doing too much, the right amount, or not enough to respond to the current drought in California? 6% too much 30 the right amount 60 not enough 5 don’t know 20a. If your local water district had a bond measure on the ballot to pay for water supply infrastructure projects, would you vote yes or no? 70% yes 24 no 6 don’t know December 2014 Californians and the Future 29 PPIC Statewide Survey Changing topics, I’m going to read you a list of issues people have mentioned when talking about California’s public higher education system today. For each one, please tell me if you think it is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem. First… [rotate questions 21 and 22 ] 21 . How about the overall quality of education in California’s public colleges and universities today? 25% big problem 36 somewhat of a problem 34 not much of a problem 5 don’t know 22 . How about the overall affordability of education for students in California’s public colleges and universities today? 59% big problem 27 somewhat of a problem 12 not much of a problem 1 don’t know 23 .Next, do you think the current level of state funding for California’s public colleges and universities is more than enough, just enough, or not enough? 12% more than enough 24 just enough 59 not enough 6 don’t know Next, what if th e state said it needed more money just to maintain current funding for public colleges and universities? [rotate questions 24 and 25 ] 24 . Would you be willing to pay higher taxes for this purpose, or not? 42% yes 56 no 2 don’t know 2 5 . Would you be willing to increase student fees for this purpose, or not? 21% yes 77 no 2 don’t know 2 5a. What if there was a bond measure on the state ballot to pay for construction projects in California’s higher education system? Would you vote yes or no? 54% yes 42 no 4 don’t know 2 6. In general, how important is California’s public higher education system to the q uality of life and economic vitality of the state over the next 2 0 years—very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 76% very important 19 somewhat important 3 not too important 1 not at all important 1 don’t know 2 7.I n thinking ahead 20 years, if current trends continue, do you think California will h ave [rotate 1 and 2 ] ( 1 ) more than enough, ( 2) n ot enough, or just enough college- educated residents needed for the jobs and skills likely to be in demand? 17% more than enough 47 not enough 32 just enough 4 don’t know 2 8. How much confidence do you have in the state government’s ability to plan for the future of California’s public higher education system —a great deal, only some, very little, or none? 14% a great deal 46 only some 28 very little 11 none 1 don’t know December 2014 Californians and the Future 30 PPIC Statewide Survey Changing topics, 2 9 . How much of the time do you think you can trust the state government in Sacramento to do what is right —just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time? 7% just about always 25 most of the time 61 only some of the time 5 none of the time (volunteered) 2 don’t know 3 0. Would you say the state government is pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves, or that it is run for the benefit of all of the people? 67% a few big interests 28 benefit of all of the people 5 don’t know 31 . Do you think the people in state government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes, waste some of it, or don’t waste very much of it? 54% a lot 35 some 8 don’t waste very much 2 don’t know Next, 32 . As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 20 10. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a [ rotate ] (1 ) [generally favorable] [ or ] (2 ) [generally unfavorable] opinion of it? 46% generally favorable 43 generally unfa vorable 10 don’t know 33 . As you may know, as part of the 2 01 0 health care law the government has set up health insurance exchanges around the country that people can use to compare plans and purchase health insurance. Just your impression, how well has California’s health insurance exchange called “Covered California” been working —very well, fairly well, not too well, or not at all well? 15% very well 37 fairly well 25 not too well 14 not at all well 9 don’t know [rotate questions 34 to 35a ] 34 . In the long run, do you think that California will be [ rotate ] (1 ) [better off] [ or ] (2 ) [worse off] under the health reform law, or don’t you think it will make much difference? 37% better off 25 worse off 34 not much difference 1 both, it depends (volunteered) 3 don’t know 3 5. In the long run, do you think that you and your family will be [rotate] (1 ) [better off] [ or ] ( 2 ) [worse off] under the health reform law, or don’t you think it will make much difference? 26% better off 22 worse off 49 not much difference – both, it depends (volunteered) 3 don’t know 35a. In the long run, do you think that uninsured Californians will be [rotate] (1 ) [better off] [ or ] ( 2 ) [worse off] under the health reform law, or don’t you think it will make much difference? 37% better off 24 worse off 34 not much difference 1 both, it depends (volunteered) 4 don’t know December 2014 Californians and the Future 31 PPIC Statewide Survey Changing topics, 3 6. How serious of a threat is global warming to the economy and quality of life for California’s future— do you think that it is a very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not at all serious of a threat? 53% very serious 23 somewhat serious 11 not too serious 12 not at all serious 2 don’t know 3 7. Do you think that California doing things to reduce global warming in the future would cause there to be more jobs for people around the state, would cause there to be fewer jobs, or wouldn’t affect the number of jobs for people around the state? 43% more jobs 21 fewer jobs 29 wouldn’t affect the number of jobs 7 don’t know 38 . Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are yo u absolutely certain that you are register ed to vote in California? 66% yes [ask q 38a] 34 no [skip to q 39b] 38a. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or are you registered as a decline -to -state or independent voter? 44% Democrat [ask q 39] 28 Republican [skip to q 39a] 5 another party (specify) [skip to q 40] 23 independent [skip to q40] 39 . Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 51% strong 47 not very strong 2 don’t know [skip to q41] 39a. Would you call yourself a strong Republican o r not a very strong Repu blican? 57% strong 39 not very strong 3 don’t know [skip to q41] 39b.Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republ ican Party or Democratic Party? 26% Republican Party 45 Democratic Party 23 neither (volunteered) 5 don’t know 4 0 . Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 12% very liberal 19 somewhat liberal 32 middle -of -the -road 22 somewhat conservative 13 very conservative 2 don’t know 4 1 . Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics —a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 21% great deal 35 fair amount 33 only a little 11 none [d1 to d5:demographic questions ] December 2014 Californians and the Future 32 PPIC Statewide Survey D6. Are you, yourself, now covered by any form of health ins urance or health plan or do you not have health insurance at this time? D6a. Which of the following is your main source of health insurance coverage? Is it a plan through your employer, a plan through your spouse’s employer, a plan you purchased yourself ei ther from an insurance company or the state or federal marketplace, are you covered by Medicare or Medi -C al , or do you get your health insuranc e from somewhere else? 84% yes, covered by health insurance 30 through employer 14 Medicare 13 Medi -Cal 12 through spouse’s employer 7 self-purchased plan [ask d6b] 4 through parents/mother/ father (volunteered ) 2 somewhere else (specify) 2 other government plan (volunteered ) 16 not insured [ask d6d] 1 don’t know/refused D6b. [of those who purchased a plan themselves] Did you purchase your plan directly from an insurance company, from the marketplace known as healthcare.gov or Covered California, or through an insurance agent or broker? ( if agent or broker: Do you know if the plan you purch ased through a broker was a plan from the state or federal health insurance marketplace known as healthcare.gov or Covered California, or was it a plan purchased directly from an insurance company and not through an exchange or marketplace? ) 44% from an i nsurance company, either directly or through a broker 45 from healthcare.gov/ Covered California, either directly or through a broker 11 don’t know/refused Summary of D6, D6a, D6b 84 % yes, covered by health insurance 30 through employer 14 Medicare 13 Medi -Cal 12 through spouse’s employer 7 self-purchased plan 3 from an insurance company, either directly or through a broker 3 from healthcare.gov/ Covered California, either directly or through a broker 1 don’t know 4 through parents/mother/ father (volunteered) 2 somewhere else (specify) 2 other government plan (volunteered) 16 not insured 1 don’t know/refused [skip to d7 ] December 2014 Californians and the Future 33 PPIC Statewide Survey [ d6d to d6f asked of uninsured adults ] D6d. [uninsured only] How long have you been uninsured —less than three months, three months to less than a year, one y ear to less than two years, or two years or more? 13% less than three months 14 three months to less than a year 21 one year to less than two years 48 two year s or more 4 don’t know D6e. [uninsured only] As you may know, the 2010 health care law requires nearly all Americans to have health insurance by 2014 or else pay a fine. Do you think you will obtain health insurance in 2014, or do you think you will remai n uninsured? 71% will obtain health insurance [ask d6f] 26 will remain uninsured [skip to d7] 3 don’t know [skip to d7] D6f. [uninsured who plan to get insurance only] Which of the following is the main reason you plan to get insurance? Is it because [ rotate 1 -4, keep 5 always last ] (1) the law requires it, (2) you don’t want to pay the penalty for not having insurance, (3) you are eligible for government financial help, (4) a new insurance option has become available to you, [or] (5) some other reason? 24% don’t want to pay the penalty 20 law requires it 16 eligible for government financial help 13 new insurance option became available 26 some other reason (specify) 1 don’t know [d7 to d16: demographic questions] December 2014 Californians and the Future 34 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect Angela Blackwell Founder and CEO PolicyLink Mollyann Brodie Senior Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Bill Lane Center for the American West Stanford University Jon Cohen Vice President of Survey Research SurveyMonkey Joshua J. Dyck Co-Director Center for Public Opinion University of Massachusetts, Lowell Russell Hancock President and CEO Joint Venture Silicon Valley Network Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Robert Lapsley President California Business Roundtable Carol S. Larson President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Monica Lozano Chairman US Hispanic Media, Inc. Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Lisa Pitney Vice President, Government Relations The Walt Disney Company Robert K. Ross, M.D. President and CEO The California Endowment Most Reverend Jaime Soto Bishop of Sacramento Roman Catholic Diocese of Sacramento Carol Whiteside President Emeritus Great Valley Center The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PPIC BOARD OF DIRECTORS Donna Lucas, Chair Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Mark Baldassare President and CEO Public Policy Institute of California Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect María Blanco Vice President, Civic Engagement California Community Foundation Brigitte Bren Attorney Louise Henry Bryson Chair Emerita, Board of Trustees J. Paul Getty Trust Walter B. Hewlett Member, Board of Directors The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Phil Isenberg Vice Chair, Delta Stewardship Council Mas Masumoto Author and F armer Steven A. Merksamer Senior Partner Nielsen, Merksamer, Parrinello, Gross & Leoni , LLP Kim Polese Chairman ClearStreet, Inc. Thomas C. Sutton Retired Chairman and CEO Pacific Life Insurance Company The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research on major economic, social, and political issues. The institute’s goal is to raise public awareness and to give elected representatives and other decision makers a more informed basis for developing policies and programs. The institute’s research focuses on the underlying forces shaping California’s future, cutting across a wide range of public policy concerns, including economic development, education, environment and resources, governance, population, public finance, and social and health policy. PPIC is a public charity . It does not take or support positions on any ballot measures or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. PPIC was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. Mark Baldassare is President and CEO of PPIC. Donna Lucas is Chair of the Board of Directors. Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source and the copyright notice below is included. Copyright © 201 4 Public Policy Institute of California All rights reserved. San Francisco, CA PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, California 94111 phone: 415.291.4400 fax: 415.291.4401 PPIC SACRAMENTO CENT ER Senator Office Building 1121 L Street, Suite 801 Sacramento, California 95814 phone: 916.440.1120 fax: 916.440.1121 www.ppic.org survey@ppic.org"
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string(85075) "CONTENTS About the Survey 2 Press Release 3 Post-Election Political Landscape 6 California’s Future 15 Regional Map 24 Methodology 25 Questionnaire and Results 2 7 the future DECEMBER 2014 & P P I C S TAT E W I D E S U R V E Y Californians Mark Baldassare Dean Bonner Renatta DeFever Lunna Lopes Jui Shrestha i P a ABOUT THE SURVEY The PPIC Statewide Sur vey provides policymakers, the media, and the public with objective, advocacy- free information on the perceptions, opinions, and public policy preferences of California residents. This is the 146th PPIC Statewide Sur vey in a series that was inaugurated in April 1998 and has generated a database of responses from more than 306,000 Californians. Suppor ted with funding from the Blue Shield of California Foundation, the California Postsecondar y Education Commission Foundation, The San Francisco Foundation, and the S. D. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation, Californians and the Future seek s to infor m decisionmakers, raise public awareness, and stimulate policy discussions about current issues and the state’s future. This sur vey began the week after the November 4 general election, which set a record for low turnout . T he Democrats swept the statewide offices and continue to dominate in the California Legislature and the state’s U.S. House delegation. V oters approved two propositions placed on the ballot by the governor and legislature that deal with water policy and the state budget. Voters passed a criminal sentencing initiative while rejecting two initiatives on health care and an Indian gaming referendum . Just before our sur vey began, U niversity of C alifornia president Janet Napolitano announced a proposal to raise tuition , and just after the sur vey was completed the UC Regents approved the tuition increases . O pen enrollment for health insurance on Covered California began during our fielding period. The sur vey presents the responses of 1,704 adult residents throughout California, inter viewed in English or Spanish by landline or cell phone. It includes findings on the following topics: The post -election landscape, including views on the state’s outlook; approval ratings of state elected officials ; views on the seriousness of the state budget situation, whether changes to the budget process are needed, and the preferred size of government; views on the seriousness of regional water supply issues, perceptions of the government’s response to the droug ht, and suppor t for a hypothetical local water bond; opinions of the 2010 health care reform law, as well perceptions of Covered California, the state health insurance exchange, and opinions of the long -term impact of the health reform law; perceptions of income inequality and preferences for government involvement in improving economic mobility; and trust in state government . California’s future, including the outlook for the state in 2025; confidence in state and local governments’ ability to plan for the future, views on tax extensions, including extending Proposition 30 taxes beyond 2018 and extending the sales tax to ser vices; suppor t for increasing taxes on the sale of cigarettes and alcohol as well as creating an oil extraction tax; perceptions of the state’s public higher education system and opinions about the importance of the system to the state’s future, and whether or not there will be enough college- educated residents in 20 years; perceptions of funding for the state’s public colleges and univer sities and willingness to pay higher taxes or increase student fees to maintain current funding; and seriousness of global warming and the effect of state climate action on job numbers. Time trends, national comparisons, and the extent to which Californians may differ in their perceptions, attitudes, and preferences regarding state and federal government based on political par ty affiliation, likelihood of voting, region of residence, race/ethnicity, and other demographics. This repor t may be downloaded free of charge from our website (www.ppic.org). If you have questions about the sur vey, please contact sur vey@ppic.org . Tr y our PPIC Statewide Sur vey interactive tools online at www.ppic.org/main/sur vAdvancedSearch.asp. December 2014 Californians and the Future 2 PPIC Statewide S urvey OVERALL MOOD Californians name jobs and the economy (29%) , followed by water and the drought (23%) , as the most important issues facing the state today. These findings are similar to those in our October pre-election survey (29% jobs/the economy, 26%, water/the drought), while jobs and the economy (53%) was the top issue in our December 2012 post-election survey. Central Valley residents are more likely to name water and the drought (39%) than those living elsewhere (25% San Francisco Bay Area, 16% Los Angeles, 14% Inland Empire, and 13% Orange/San Diego) . About half of California adults (50%) and likely voters (47%) say things in Califor nia are generally going in the right direction. The positive ratings among all adults were similar in our October pre-election survey (47% right direction) and in our 2012 post -election survey (44% right direction). Today, Democrats (61%) are much more likely than independents (47%) or Republicans (23%) to say the state is going in the right direction. More San Francisco Bay Area (59%) and Los Angeles (57%) residents hold this view than those living elsewhere (46% Ora nge/San Diego, 42% Inland Empire, 38% Central Valley). Across racial/ethnic groups, Asians (62%) are the most optimistic, followed by blacks (58%), Latinos (50%), and whites (45%). Optimism about the state’s direction decreases as age increases . Among thos e who approve of Governor Brown, 74 percent think the state is going in the right direction; 84 percent of those who disapprove of Brown’s job performance are pessimistic about the direction of the state. “Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Right direction 50% 61% 23% 47% 47% Wrong direction 42 33 73 41 48 Don’t know 8 6 3 12 5 Similarly, about half of all adults (52%) and likely voters (51%) are also saying that the state will have good times financially in the next 12 months. The proportion saying there would be good economic times was slightly lower in our October pre-election survey (45% ) and lower in our 2012 post-election survey (41%). The last time more than half of Californians were expecting good times was in January 2001 (51%). Today, the expectation for good economic times is more common in the San Francisco Bay Area (68%) than elsewhere (58% Los Angeles, 47% Orange/San Diego, 40% Inland Empire, 39% Central Valley) , and among Democrats (60%) and independents (53%) than Republicans (34%). Asians (73%) are much more likely than blacks (57%), Latinos (50%), and whites (47%) to expect good times finan cially. Men (56%) are somewhat more likely than women (48%) to hold this view. Among those who approve of Governor Brown, 70 percent expect good times, while 22 percent expect bad times. “Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that dur ing the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?” All adults Region Likely voters Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Good times 52% 39% 68% 58% 47% 40% 51% Bad times 39 56 22 32 41 53 40 Don’t know 9 5 10 10 12 7 9 December 2014 Californians and the Future 7 PPIC Statewide S urvey APPROVAL OF STATE EL ECTED OFFICIALS In the wake of Jerry Brown’s reelection by a 20 point margin (60% to 40%), 54 percent of adults and 57 percent of likely voters approve of the way that he is handling his job as governor. The governor’s approval rating s are similar to those in our October pre-election survey (50% adults, 54% likely voters) and are 6 points higher than in our 2012 post -election survey (48% adults, 49% likely voters). Today, m ost Democrats (73%), about half of independents (46%) , and one in three Republicans (31%) approve of the governor. The San Francisco Bay Area (71%) gives the governor higher approval ratings than other regions (55% Los Angeles, 53% Inland Empire, 48% Orang e/San Diego, 46% Central Valley). Approval is similar among men (53%) and women (56%) ; at least half across age, education, income, and racial/ethnic groups approve. In an election where most incumbents won and few seats changed parties , 41 percent of California adults and 39 percent of likely voters approve of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job. These findings reflect virtually no change in the legislature’s approval rating since our October pre- election survey (41% adults, 37% likely voters); however, they are higher than in our 2012 post -election survey (34% adults, 26% likely voters). Today, majorities of Democrats (52%) express approval of the legislature; fewer independents (34%) and Republicans (16%) do so. Approval rating s are higher in the San Francisco Bay Area (50%) and Los Angeles (48%) than elsewhere (40% Inland Empire, 38% Orange/San Diego, 29% Central Valley). Approval of the legislature is similar among men (40%) and women (42%) ; it is lower among whites (35%) than blacks (42%), Latinos (48%), and Asians (49%) . “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that…?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California Approve 54% 73% 31% 46% 57% Disapprove 28 17 60 30 34 Don ’t know 18 10 9 23 9 The California Legislature is handling its job Approve 41 52 16 34 39 Disapprove 42 31 73 53 51 Don ’t know 17 16 11 13 10 Majorities of adults (57%) and likely voters (56%) say they have a great deal or some confidence that the governor and California Legislature have the ability to solve the state’s most important problems, while four in 10 report having very little or none. Majorities of Democrats (66%) and independents (58%) have at least some confidence in their problem -solving ability, while fewer Republicans (37%) have this positive perception. In January 1999, nearly seven in 10 adults had a great deal (11%) or some confidence (58%) that the governor and legislature could solve the state’s most important problems. “How much confidence do you have in the governor and California Legislature when it comes to their ability to solve the state's most important problems— a great deal, only some, very little, or none?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind A great deal 16% 22% 9% 11% 16% Only some 41 44 28 47 40 Very little 29 24 35 27 27 None 12 8 27 13 16 Don’t know 3 3 – 2 2 December 2014 Californians and the Future 8 PPIC Statewide S urvey STATE BUDGET SITUATI ON A majority of Californians (51%) and likely voters (55%) say that the state budget situation in California is a big problem today. Negative perceptions of the state budget are unchanged among adults since our October pre-election survey (54% October, 51% today). However, higher proportions of likely voters sa id the budget situation wa s a big problem in October (62%) and in the 2012 post -election survey (74%) . This points to a decrease in fiscal concerns since the easy passage of the Proposition 2 (69% voted yes) “rainy day fund” measure on the November ballot. Today, majorities of Republicans (74%) and independents (60 %) say the state budget situation is a big problem ; fewer Democrats (46%) hold this view . San Francisco Bay Area (47%) and Los Angeles (47%) residents are less likely to think that it is a big problem than residents elsewhere (57% Central Valley, 55% Inland Empire, 51% Orange/San Diego). Whites (57%), blacks (54%), and Asians (54%) are more likely than Latinos (41 %) to hold this view. About hal f across age groups say the budget situation is a big problem. “Do you think the state budget situation in California— that is, the balance between government spending and revenues—is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Big problem 51% 46% 74% 60% 55% Somewhat of a problem 39 40 22 33 35 Not a problem 8 11 3 6 8 Don’t know 3 3 1 1 2 Still, about six in 10 adults (59%) and likely voters (61%) continue to say that the state budget process in California, in terms of both spending and revenues, is in need of major changes. Most others say that minor changes are needed (27% adults, 29% likely voters) , while few (9% adults, 7% likely voters) say the state budget process is fine the way it is , even after the passage of Proposition 2. The results were similar for adults in our September pre -election survey (53% major changes ). By contrast, i n six PPIC Sta tewide Surveys conducted in 2008 and 2009, the percentage of adults who said that major changes were needed ranged between 65 and 80 percent. Today, 75 percent of Republicans, 63 percent of independents, and 56 percent of Democrats say major changes are ne eded in the state budget process. I n light of current concerns about spending and revenues , what size government do Californians prefer? About half of adults (50%) and likely voters (45%) say that they would rather pay higher taxes and have a state govern ment that provides more services. This proportion was similar in our September pre -election survey (47% adults, 41% likely voters) and in our 2012 post-election survey (55% adults, 48% likely voters). Today, 66 percent of Democrats prefer to pay higher tax es and have a state government that provides more services, compared to 48 percent of independents and just 19 percent of Republicans . “In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more—I’d rather pay higher taxes and have a state gove rnment that provides more services, or I’d rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Higher taxes, more services 50% 66% 19% 48% 45% Lower taxes, fewer services 44 27 75 45 47 Don’t know 6 7 5 7 7 December 2014 Californians and the Future 9 PPIC Statewide S urvey WATER POLICY After passing the state water bond ( Proposition 1, 67% voted yes), 60 percent of Californians say that the water supply is a big problem in their part of the state. This level of concern is somewhat lower than before the election, in September (65%) and October (68%) , and is similar to earlier this year (55% March, 59% May, 54% July). Central Valley residents (76%) are far more likely than others to say it is a big problem . “Would you say tha t the supply of water is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem in your part of California?” All adults Region Inland/Coastal Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Inland Coastal Big problem 60% 76% 56% 56% 50% 56% 68% 56% Somewhat of a problem 21 14 25 22 23 19 17 23 Not much of a problem 18 10 18 20 26 24 15 20 Don’t know 1 – 1 2 – 1 – 1 Sixty percent of Californians also say that state and local governments are not doing enough about the current drought. This perception is unchanged from our October pre -election survey (57%). Very few residents say that governments are doing too much (5% October , 6% today). Currently, Central Valley (73%) residents are more likely than San Francisco Bay Area (60%), Los Angeles (57%), Orange/San Diego (56%), and Inland Empire (50%) residents to say governments are not doing enough. “Overall, do you think that the state and local governments are doing too much, the right amount, or not enough to respond to the current drought in California?” All adults Region Inland/Coastal Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Inland Coastal Too much 6% 4% 2% 7% 7% 5% 6% 6% The right amount 30 18 35 32 33 37 24 33 Not enough 60 73 60 57 56 50 65 57 Don’t know 5 4 3 4 4 8 6 4 Strong majorities of Californians (70% ) would vote yes if their local water district had a bond measure on the ballot. Sixty -four percent of likely voters would vote yes, just below the two -thirds vote requirement to pass local bond measures. In our September pre- election survey, a similar 72 percent of adults and 67 percent of li kely voters said they would vote yes. Today, solid majorities across regions say they would vote yes on a local bond measure. Majorities across parties would vote yes, but Democrats (73%) and independents (68%) are more likely than Republicans (58%) to say this . “If your local water district had a bond measure on the ballot to pay for water supply infrastructure projects, would you vote yes or no?” All adults Region Likely voters Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Yes 70% 73% 77% 67% 69% 63% 64% No 24 21 17 28 25 30 29 Don’t know 6 6 6 5 6 8 7 December 2014 Californians and the Future 10 PPIC Statewide S urvey HEALTH CARE REFORM As the second open enrollment period begins for the Affordable Care Act, Californians continue to be closely divided on the health reform law: 46 percent have a gen erally favorable opinion and 43 percent have a generally unfavorable opinion. Opinion has been divided each of the seven times we have asked this question dating back to December 2013. According to a November Kaiser Family Foundation poll, adults nationally are less likely to view the health care law favorably than Californians are (37 % nationally, 46% California). Partisans in California are divided —most Democrats (61%) have a favorable opinion while most Republicans (74%) have an unfavorable one —and so are i ndependents (42% favorable, 43% unfavorable). Across racial/ethnic groups, blacks (69%) are much more likely than Latinos (51%) and Asians (49%), and far more likely than whites (39%) to have a favorable opinion. Residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (55%) are the most likely to have a favorable opinion, followed by those in the Inland Empire (49%), Los Angeles (49%), Orange/San Diego (47%), and the Central Valley (36%). Fewer than half across age and education groups have a favorable opinion. Among those without health insurance, 50 percent have an unfavorable opinion. “As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a genera lly favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it?” All adults Party Have health insurance Dem Rep Ind Yes No Generally favorable 46% 61% 19% 42% 48% 41% Generally unfavorable 43 32 74 43 42 50 Don’t know 10 7 8 14 10 9 California’s health insurance marketplace, Covered California, exceeded projections last year by enrolling 1.4 million Californians. With open enrollment under way, how do Californians view the state’s marketplace? Half of Californians say it is working very (15%) or fairly well (37%), while four in 10 say it is working not too well (25%) or not at all well (14%). The perception that the state exchange is working well was similar the other two times we asked this question (54% May 2014, 46% January 2014). Two in three Democrats (66%) say Covered California is working well , while half of independents (48%) and just one in four Republicans (23%) say this . There are also differences across racial/ethnic groups , with blacks (67%) the most likely to say the exchange has been working well, followed by Latinos (57%), Asians (54%), and whites (45%). Across regions, residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (57%) are the most likely , and Central Valley (37%) residents the least likely, to say Covered California is working well. Amo ng those who view the Affordable Care Act favorably, 77 percent say the exchange is working well; among those who view the health reform law unfavorably, only 28 percent say it is working well. “As you may know, as part of the 2010 health care law the gov ernment has set up health insurance exchanges around the country that people can use to compare plans and purchase health insurance. Just your impression, how well has California’s health insurance exchange called ‘Covered California’ been working?” All adults Race/ Ethnicity Have health insurance Asians Blacks Latinos Whites Yes No Very well 15% 5% 36% 20% 11% 14% 17% Fairly well 37 49 31 37 34 37 35 Not too well 25 29 21 23 27 25 26 Not at all well 14 9 7 14 15 13 20 Don’t know 9 7 6 5 14 10 1 December 2014 Californians and the Future 11 PPIC Statewide S urvey IMPACT OF HEALTH CARE REFORM When it comes to the long-term impact of the health reform law, residents are divided on whether California will be better off (37%) or if the law will not make much difference (34%); 25 percent say the state will be worse off. More than half of Democrats (55%) say the state will be better off, while nearly six in 10 Republicans (59%) say it will be worse off. Independents are more likely to say the state will be better off (41%) than worse off (28%) or that there w ill be no difference (29%) . Blacks (52%) are the most likely to say the state will be better off, followed by Asians (44%), whites (37%), and Latinos (32%). Four in 10 uninsured Californians (42%) say the law will not make much difference. When it comes to the law’s long-term impact on uninsured Californians , adults are divided between the law making the uninsured better off (37%) and it not making much difference (34%); 24 percent say the uninsured will be worse off. More than half of Democrats (55%) say t he uninsured will be better off under the law, while fewer independents (45%) and Republicans (28%) hold this view. A plurality of blacks (49%), Asians (45%), and whites (41%) say the uninsured will be better off; a plurality of Latinos say it will n ot mak e much difference (40%). Notably, Californians with insurance (40%) are much more likely than those without insurance (24%) to say that uninsured Californians will be better off in the long run. When asked about them selves and their famil ies, 49 percent of Californians say the law will not make much difference; 26 percent say it will make them better off and 22 percent say they will be worse off. Half of independents (50%) and Democrats (49%) say it will not make much difference, while half of Republicans (51%) say it will make them worse off. Most Asians (57%) say it will not make much difference, as do half of Latinos (51%) and whites (48%), and four in 10 blacks (41%). About half of those with (49%) and without (48%) health insurance say the law won’t make much difference to them or their family. “In the long run, do you think that _______ will be better off or worse off under the health reform law, or don’t you think it will make much difference?” All adults Race/Ethnicity Have health insurance Asians Blacks Latinos Whites Yes No California Better off 37% 44% 52% 32% 37% 38% 31% Worse off 25 18 10 21 32 25 25 Not much difference 34 34 35 44 27 33 42 Don’t know/ Both (volunteered) 4 4 3 2 4 4 2 Uninsured Californians Better off 37 45 49 29 41 40 24 Worse off 24 18 22 28 21 23 29 Not much difference 34 34 25 40 32 32 43 Don’t know/ Both (volunteered) 5 4 3 3 6 5 4 You and your family Better off 26 29 40 29 21 26 27 Worse off 22 13 9 18 28 22 21 Not much difference 49 57 41 51 48 49 48 Don’t know/ Both (volunteered) 3 1 10 3 3 3 4 Seven in 10 uninsured Californians say they have been without insurance for at least a year (21 % one year to less than two years, 48% two years or more). With the open enrollment period just beginning, most uninsured Californians (71%) say they will obtain health insurance. When asked about their main reason for getting health insurance, 24 percent say they don’t want to pay the penalty, 20 percent say the law requires it, 16 percent say they are eligible for financial help, and 13 percent say a new insurance option became available . December 2014 Californians and the Future 12 PPIC Statewide S urvey INCOME INEQUALITY AN D THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT In the wake of the Great Recession , attention has increasingly f ocused on income inequality. When asked if California is divided into the haves and have -nots, a record share of Californians (68%) say yes . Findings were similar in December 2013 (66%), December 2011 (63%), and in September 2002 (61%), but fewer held this view in January 1999 (56%). Solid majorities across regions say the state is divided (77% San Francisco Bay Area, 70% Central Valley, 70% Los Angeles, 62% Orange/San Diego, and 60% Inland Empire). Blacks (82%) are the most likely racial/ethnic group to ho ld this view, followed by Asians (76%), Latinos (69%), and whites (64%). Two in three or more across age, education, and income groups say the state is divided into haves and have -nots , as do both men (67%) and women (70%). Notably, there is a partisan div ide, with most Democrats (76%) and independents (67%) thinking the state is divided this way, while half of Republicans (52%) hold this view. “Some people think that California is divided into economic groups, the haves and have-nots, while others think it is not divided that way. Do you think that California is divided into haves and have-nots, or do you think that California is not divided that way?” All adults Household income Race/ethnicity Under $40,000 $40,000 to $80,000 $80,000 or more Asians Blacks Latinos Whites Divided into haves and have-nots 68% 71% 68% 66% 76% 82% 69% 64% Not divided this way 28 25 29 33 24 16 28 31 Don’t know 4 4 3 2 – 2 3 5 When asked to place themselves into the haves or the have- nots, Californians are divided: 40 percent say haves, 46 percent say have -nots. Findings were similar in December 2013 (40% haves, 45% have - nots) and December 2011 (39% haves, 48% have -nots). Findings in pre-Great Recession surveys were d ifferent , with about six in 10 saying they were among the haves (60% September 2002, 57% January 1999). Californians with incomes under $40,000 (23%) and those earning from $40,000 to $80,000 (35%) are far less likely than those earning $80,000 or more (78%) to say they are a member of the haves. Similarly, blacks and Latinos (22% each) are far less likely than Asians (52%) and whites (54%) to hold this view. Republicans (56%) are much more likely than independents (43%) or Democrats (40%) to say they belong to the haves ; in fact, a plurality of Democrats (46%) say they belong to the have -nots . “If you had to choose, which of these groups are you in— the haves or have-nots?” All adults Household income Race/ethnicity Under $40,000 $40,000 to $80,000 $80,000 or more Asians Blacks Latinos Whites The haves 40% 23% 35% 78% 52% 22% 22% 54% The have- nots 46 65 50 11 37 68 67 30 Neither (volunteered) 9 6 10 9 8 7 8 10 Don’t know 5 5 4 2 3 2 3 6 Fifty -two percent of Californians say the government should do more to make sure that all Californians have an equal opportunity, while 41 percent say all people have an equal opportunity to get ahead. Findings were similar in December 2013 (49% government should do more, 43% all have equal opportunity) and in December 2011 (54% government should do more, 37% all have equal opportunity). Six in 10 Democrats (60%) and half of independents (52%) say the government should do more, while six in 10 Republicans (62%) say all people have an equal opportunity. Most blacks (64%), Latinos (60%), and Asians (57%) say government should do more, while just 44 percent of whites hold this view. The belief that government should do more decreases as income and age increase. December 2014 Californians and the Future 13 PPIC Statewide S urvey TRUST IN STATE GOVER NMENT Following the November 2 014 election, Californians continue to be skeptical of the state government. Only one in three adults say they trust the state government to do what is right just about always (7%) or most of the time (25%). Indeed, a strong majority of Californians say that you can trust the government to do what is right only some of the time (61%) or volunteer they trust it none of the time (5%). These findings are similar to those in our May 2014 survey (59% only some of the time, 8% none of the time) and our December 2013 survey (63% only some of the time, 8% none of the time). Majorities of Californians across all regions and demographic groups express distrust towards the state government. In context of these high levels of distrust, majorities of adults (54%) and lik ely voters (59%) think the government wastes a lot of the money paid in taxes. These findings are similar to those in December 2013 , when 54 percent of adults and 60 percent of likely voters said the government wastes a lot of money. Republicans ( 78%) are much more likely than i ndependents (60%) and Democrats (46%) to say the government wastes a lot of money. Older Californians (58% ages 35 to 54, 60% ages 55 or older) ar e more likely than adults younger than age 35 (44%) to say that the state government wa stes a lot of taxpayer money. There are regional differences as well , with Central Valley (63%) residents the most likely to say a lot of money is wasted, followed by those in Orange/San Diego (58%), the Inland Empire (56%), Los Angeles (52%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (47%). “Do you think the people in state government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes, waste some of it, or don’t waste very much of it?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind A lot 54% 46% 78% 60% 59% Some 35 44 20 32 34 Don’t waste very much 8 9 2 5 6 Don’t know 2 2 – 3 1 Two in three Californians (67%) and likely voters (68%) say the state government is run by a few big interests. These results are similar to those in December 2013, when 65 percent of adults and 71 percent of likely voters felt the government was run by a few big interests. Across parties, Republicans (78%) are more likely than Democrats (65%) to say that the state government is run by a few big interests. Notably, t he proportion of independents (71%) who hold this view has increased by 10 points since May (61%). At least six in 10 Californians across age, income, race/ethnicity, and education groups believe the state government is pretty much run by a few big interests. Regionally, Californians in the Central Valley (78%) are the most likely to hold this view, followed by those in Orange/San Diego (75%), the Inland Empire (70%), Los Angeles (61%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (56%). “Would you say the state government is pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves, or that it is run for the benefit of all of the people?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind A few big interests 67% 65% 78% 71% 68% Benefit of all of the people 28 28 16 25 26 Don’t know 5 7 5 4 6 December 2014 Californians and the Future 14 CALIFORNIA’S FUTURE KEY FINDINGS In a departure from 10 years ago, more Californians think the state will be a better place to live in 2025. However, 55 percent of Californians think that when children today grow up they will be wor se off financially than their parents. (page 16 ) Six in 10 Californians have at least some confidence in both the state government’s and their local government’s ability to plan for the state’s future and growth. ( page 17) Californians are deeply divided along party lines about extending the Proposition 30 tax increases. Most are opposed to extending the sales tax to services that are not currently taxe d, but support is higher if the proposal involves lowering the overall tax rate. (page 18 ) Strong major ities favor increases in state taxes on cigarettes and alcohol. But Californians are divided along partisan lines about taxing the extraction of oil and natural gas. (page 19 ) One in four Californians say the overall quality of California’s higher educati on system is a big problem; six in 10 say affordability is a big problem. ( page 20) Nearly all Californians say the higher education system is important to the state’s future ; about half say the state will not have enough college -educated workers to meet future demand . Six in 10 adults say the current level of state funding is not enough and a record- high share oppose raising student fees. (pages 21, 22 ) Most Californians perceive global warming as a threat to California’s future; four in 10 say that there will be more jobs around the state if California does things to address global warming. ( page 23) 71 31 56 24 64 36 0 20 40 60 80 DemRepInd Percent registered voters Favor Oppose Support For Extending Proposition 30 TaxIncreases 25 37 49 28 20 29 0 20 40 60 80 20042014 Percent all adults Better place to live Worse place to live No change Outlook on California in 2025 656966 48 0 20 40 60 80 AsianBlackLatinoWhite Percent all adults Belief that State Funding for Public Colleges and Universities is Not Enough December 2014 Californians and the Future 15 PPIC Statewide S urvey FUTURE OUTLOOK A plurality of adults (37%), likely voters (36%), and parents of children age 18 or younger (36%) think that California will be a better place to live in 2025 than it is now. Fewer say that it will be a worse place (28% adults, 34% likely voters, 29% parents) or that there will be no change (29% adults, 25% likely voters, 30% parents). Positive perceptions among adults about the state’s future are similar to two years ago (42% December 2012) but 12 points higher than a decade ago (25% August 2004). Democrats (42%) and independents (36%) are more likely than Republicans (25%) to think California will be a better place. T hose age 18 to 34 (45%) are more likely than older Californians (34% age 35 to 54, 32% age 55 and older) to hold this view. Blacks (49%), Asians (43%), and Latinos (40%) are somewhat more optimistic than whites (33%). Pluralities across regions and genders are optimistic about the future. “Overall, do you think that in 2025 California will be a better place to live than it is now or a worse place to live than it is now or will there be no change?” Better place Worse place No change Don’t know All adults 37% 28 % 29 % 6 % Likely voters 36 34 25 6 Parents of children 18 years or younger 36 29 30 5 Party Democrats 42 25 26 7 Republicans 25 44 25 6 Independents 36 35 26 3 R ace/ Ethnicity Asians 43 23 32 2 Blacks 49 30 18 3 Latinos 40 23 31 6 White 33 34 26 7 Age 18–34 45 18 35 2 35 –54 35 32 26 6 55 and older 32 34 25 10 Still, a majority of adults (55%) think that when children in California today grow up they will be worse off financially than their parents; 37 percent think they will be better off. A majority of blacks (56%) and Latinos (51%) think they will be better off; whites (66%) and Asians (56%) say they will be worse off. Californians age 55 and older (62%) and those age 35 to 54 (54%) think children today will be worse off, those age 18 to 34 are divided. Republicans (72%) are more likely than independents (60%) and Democrats (56%) to think children today will be worse off financially than their parents. Solid majorities of Californians with at least some college education (62%) and those with incomes of $40,000 or more (64%) say children today will be worse off ; those with less education and lower incomes are divided. “When children today in California grow up, do you think they will be better off or worse off financially than their parents?” All adults Age Race/ Ethnicity 18–34 35 –54 55 and older Asians Blacks Latinos Whites Better off 37% 46 % 38 % 28 % 39 % 56 % 51 % 24 % Worse off 55 49 54 62 56 39 42 66 Same (volunteered) 3 3 3 4 1 1 2 5 Don’t know 5 3 5 7 4 4 4 5 December 2014 Californians and the Future 16 PPIC Statewide S urvey GOVERNMENT PLANNING Six in 10 adults have a great deal (17%) or only some (46%) confidence in the state government’s ability to plan for the state’s future and growth. About one in three have very little (25%) or no confidence (10%). The share having at least some confidence is lower than it was in October 2008 (50%) but is similar to August 2004 (58%) and August 2006 (61%). Democrats (73%) and independents (58%) are much more likely than Republicans (43%) to have at least some confidence in the state government’s ability to plan for the future. Across regions, residents in Los Angeles (66%), the San Francisco Bay Ar ea (66%), Orange/San Diego (64%), and the Inland Empire (63%) are more likely than those in the Central Valley (55%) to have at least some confidence. Asians (79%) are most likely to have confidence, followed by blacks (73%), Latinos (66%), and w hites (58%). Californians age 18 to 34 (70%) are more likely than older Californians to express at least some confidence (60% age 35 to 54, 61% age 55 and older). “How much confidence do you have in the state government's ability to plan for the state's future and growth— a great deal, only some, very little, or none?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind A great deal 17% 20 % 9 % 11 % 16 % Only some 46 53 34 47 43 Very little 25 20 35 25 27 None 10 5 21 15 12 Don’t know 2 2 1 2 1 Californians’ confidence in the ability of their local governments to plan for growth and the future in their part of California is similar to their confidence in state government: 19 percent express a great deal of confidence, 48 percent only some, 23 percent very little, and 9 percent none. Confidence was similar in June 2004 (15% a great deal, 47% only some, 28% very little, 8% none). Today, similar shares of Republicans ( 69%), Democrats ( 64%), and independents ( 63%) have at least some confidence. Notably, Republicans are far more likely to have confidence in their local governments ( 69%) than in state government ( 43%) when it comes to planning for the future. More than six in 10 across regions have a great deal or some confidence ( 69% San Francisco Bay Area, 68% Los Angeles, 65% Central Valley, 65% Orange/San Diego, 64% Inland Empire). Two in three or more across racial/ethnic groups have at least some confidence and confidence rises with as education and income levels increase . “H ow much confidence do you have in your local governments’ abilities to plan for growth and the future in your part of California —a great deal, only some, very little, or none?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind A great deal 19% 20 % 19 % 17 % 19 % Only some 48 44 50 46 48 Very little 23 23 21 23 22 None 9 11 10 12 9 Don’t know 2 2 – 3 2 Only 9 percent of Californians have a great deal of confidence in the ability of both the state government and their local governments to plan for the future; 52 percent say they have at least some confidence in both. December 2014 Californians and the Future 17 PPIC Statewide S urvey TAX EXTENSIONS Two years after Californians passed Proposition 30 (55% voted yes), a majority of adults (53%) and likely voters (52%) would favor extending the tax increases , which are set to expire in 2018. There are strong partisan differences : 71 percent of Democrats favor , 64 percent of Republicans oppose. Fifty -six percent of independents favor an extension. Regionally, Californians in the San Francisco Bay Area (63%) are the most likely to favor extending the Proposition 30 tax increases , while those in Orange/San Diego (46%) are the least likely to do so. More than half of Californians across income groups favor extending the tax increases. Californians age 18 to 34 (61% ) are more likely than older Californians to favor extending the Propos ition 30 tax increases (52% age 35 to 54, 47% age 55 or older). While a majority of women (57%) favor an extension, half of men (49%) hold this view . Blacks (72%) and Asians (61%) are more likely to favor extending the tax increases than Latinos and whites (51% each). “As you may know, voters passed Proposition 30 in November 2012. It increased taxes on earnings over $250,000 for seven years and sales taxes by one quarter cent for four y ears, to fund schools and guarantee public safety realignment funding. Do you favor or oppose extending the Proposition 30 tax increases which are set to fully expire in 2018?” Favor Oppose Don’t know All adults 53% 40 % 6 % Likely voters 52 43 5 Parents of children 18 years or younger 54 41 5 Party Democrats 71 24 5 Republicans 31 64 5 Independents 56 36 7 Race /E thnicity Asians 61 35 4 Blacks 72 23 5 Latinos 51 42 7 Whites 51 43 6 When asked about a proposal to extend the state sales tax to services that are not currently taxed, more than six in 10 Californians (62%) and likely voters (63%) express opposition. However, when Californians are asked about extending the state sales tax to services not currently taxed while lowering the overall sales tax rate, opposition drops to 48 percent among adults and 49 percent among likely voters. Though a plurality of Democrats and independents (46% each) would support extending the sales tax to services not covered while lowering the overall rate, a majority of Republicans (60%) oppose this proposal. “For each of the following, please say if you favor or oppose the proposal. How about…?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Extending the state sales tax to services that are not currently taxed Favor 29% 33% 19% 30% 25% Oppose 62 55 74 59 63 Don’t know 9 12 7 11 11 Extending the state sales tax to services that are not currently taxed while lowering the overall sales tax rate Favor 42 46 30 46 39 Oppose 48 40 60 44 49 Don’t know 10 14 10 9 12 December 2014 Californians and the Future 18 PPIC Statewide S urvey TAX REVENUES Californians appear to be receptive to some targeted tax increases. Strong majorities favor increasing state taxes on the purchase of cigarettes (74%) and alcoholic beverages (68%). Support for increasing taxes on cigarettes is at its highest point since PPIC began asking this question in January 2006. Similarly, support for increasing taxes on alcoholic beverages is at its highest point since Ma rch 2013. While Californians favor increasing taxes on cigarettes and alcohol, they are divided on whether to tax the extraction of oil and natural gas in California (45% favor, 49% oppose). Support was similar the other two times we asked this question (43% May 2014, 42% March 2013). “For each of the following, please say if you favor or oppose the proposal. How about …?” Increasing state taxes on the purchase of cigarettes Increasing state taxes on the purchase of alcoholic beverages Taxing the extraction of oil and natural gas in California Favor 74% 68 % 45 % Oppose 25 30 49 Don’t know 1 1 5 At least six in 10 Californians across all regions and demographic groups favor increasing taxes on cigarettes and on alcoholic beverages. L ikely voters are slightly less likely than adults overall to favor increasing taxes on the purchase of cigarettes and alcohol, but are slightly more likely to favor taxing the extraction of oil and natural gas. Though majorities of Democrats, Republicans , and independents favor increasing taxes on cigarettes and alcohol, partisan differences are starker when it comes to taxing the extraction of oil and gas. A majority of Democrats (58%) support taxing oil and gas extraction in California, but only 34 percen t of Republicans say they would favor such a tax. Half of independents (49%) are in favor. The likelihood that Californians will express support for taxing the extraction of oil and gas increases as education and income levels rise . Percent saying favor Increasing taxes on cigarettes Increasing taxes on alcohol Taxing the extraction of oil and natural gas All adults 74% 68% 45% Likely voters 68 62 52 Parents of children 18 or younger 78 73 43 Party Dem 78 69 58 Rep 58 52 34 Ind 73 73 49 Race/ Ethnicity Asians 81 78 48 Blacks 77 71 50 Latinos 78 76 43 Whites 69 60 47 Household income Under $40,000 76 74 42 $40,000 to under $80,000 76 64 46 $80,000 or more 71 63 58 The share of Californians saying that the state and local tax system is in need of major changes (44%) is at its lowest since PPIC began asking this question in January 2010. Thirty- eight percent say the tax system needs minor changes, and 16 percent say i t is fine the way it is. Republicans (60%) are much more likely than independents (43%) and Democrats (40%) to say that major changes are needed. December 2014 Californians and the Future 19 PPIC Statewide S urvey PERCEPTIONS OF CALIFORNIA’S HIGHER EDUCATION SYS TEM At a time when much discussion about the future of higher education is taking place, a majority of Californians (59%) say the overall affordability of higher education is a big problem. The share saying that affordability is a big problem today is slightly lower than in December 2012 (65%). In PPIC surveys between 2007 and 2011, the share calling affordability a big problem was similar to today ’s share. By comparison, one in four Californians (25%) say the overall quality of higher education is a big problem (36% somewhat of a problem, 34% not much of a problem) . In surveys dating back to 2007, fewer than one in four saw quality as a big problem . “I’m going to read you a list of issues people have mentioned when talking about California’s higher education system today. For each one, please tell me if you think it is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem. How about… ?” The overall affordability of higher education for students The overall quality of higher education Big problem 59% 25% Somewhat of a problem 27 36 Not much of a problem 12 34 Don’t know 1 5 Californians age 18 to 34 (63%) are the most likely to say affordability is a big problem , followed by those age 35 to 54 (59%) and those age 55 and older (56%). Majorities across racial/ethnic groups see it as a big problem —Asians (64%) are the most likely to hold this view , followed by whites (59%), blacks (57%), and Latinos (57%) . Across regions, San Francisco Bay Area residents (68%) are the most likely to view affordability as a big problem , followed by those in O range/San Diego (59%), Los Angeles (57%), the Inland Empire ( 57%), and the Central Valley (56 %). Across parties, Democrats (65%) are the most likely to view affordability as a big problem , followed by independents (61%) and Republicans (55%). When it comes to the quality of higher education, fewer than four in 10 residents across regions and demographic groups say it is a big problem. About one in four across regions view quality as a big problem. Blacks (35%) are the most likely to hold this v iew, followed by whites (25%), Latinos (24%), and Asians (24%). Fewer than a third across parties think quality is a big problem. Percent saying big problem Overall affordability Overall quality All adults 59% 25% Likely voters 60 25 Parents of children 18 or younger 62 25 Age 18–34 63 21 35–54 59 25 55 and older 56 30 Race/Ethnicity Asians 64 24 Blacks 57 35 Latinos 57 24 Whites 59 25 Household income Under $40,000 57 25 $40,000 to under $80,000 61 29 $80,000 or more 63 23 December 2014 Californians and the Future 20 PPIC Statewide S urvey EDUCATING CALIFORNIA ’S FUTURE WORKFORCE An overwhelming majority of Californians say the state’s public higher education system is very (76%) or somewhat (19%) important to the quality of life and economic vitality of the state over the next 20 years. The share saying it is very important is down from its record high in December 2012 (85%). More than seven in 10 Californians since 2007 have said it is very important. While majorities across all groups hold this view , there are differences across parties, regions, and demographic groups. Democrats (84%) and independents (79%) are much more likely than Republicans (67%) to say the public higher education system is very important for the future. Across regions, residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (83%) and Los Angeles (80%) are more likely to hold this view than residents in the Inland Empire (73%), Central Valley (73%), and Orange/San Diego (71%). Californians age 18 to 34 (80%) and age 35 to 54 (79%) are more likely than residents age 55 years and older (68%) to say that public higher education is very important for the future of the state. College graduates (82%), naturalized citizens (86%), parents with children age 18 or younger (83%), and public school parents (84%) are more likely to hold this view. “In general, how important is California’s public higher education system to the quality of life and economic vitality of the state over the next 20 years?” All adults Party Age Dem Rep Ind 18–34 35 –54 55 and older Very important 76% 84 % 67 % 79 % 80 % 79 % 68 % Somewhat important 19 14 23 17 16 17 25 Not too important 3 1 3 3 3 2 4 Not at all important 1 1 5 1 1 2 2 Don’t know 1 1 1 – – – 1 A p luralit y of Californians (47%) think that if current trends continue California will not have enough college- educated residents to meet economic demand in 20 years. Thirty-two percent of Californians say there will be just enough and 17 percent say there will be more than enough college -educated residents in the state. PPIC research has shown that the state will have a shortage of 1 million college- educated workers by 2025. The share of those who say the state will face a shortage (47%) is down somewhat from December 2012 (56%) and November 2010 (56%) but similar to most previous surveys (49% November 2011, 49% November 2009, 47% November 2008, 52% October 2007). There are differences across regions, parties, and demographic groups. Across regions, San Francisco Bay Area residents ( 57%) are most likely to think there won’t be enough college graduates , followed by residents of the Central Valley (50%) , Orange/San Diego (45%) , the Inland Empire (45%), and Los Angeles (42% ). Democrats (54%) and independents (52%) are more likely than Republicans (42%) to hold this view. S ix in 10 Californians have either a great deal (14%) or some confidence (46%) in the government’s abilit y to plan for the future of the higher education system , while four in 10 say they have very little (28%) or none (11%). “In thinking ahead 20 years, if current trends continue, do you think California will have more than enough, not enough, or just enoug h college-educated residents needed for the jobs and skills likely to be in demand?” All adults Education Race/Ethnicity High school or less Some college College graduate Asians Blacks Latinos Whites Not enough 47% 45 % 46 % 51 % 56 % 42 % 47 % 44 % Just enough 32 32 32 31 28 37 34 31 More than enough 17 19 18 14 14 18 16 19 Don’t know 4 4 4 4 2 3 2 5 December 2014 Californians and the Future 21 PPIC Statewide S urvey CALIFORNIA’S HIGHER EDUCATION FUNDING When it comes to the level of state funding for California’s public colleges and universities, Californians continue to say it is not enough. Today, 59 percent of Californians say funding is not enough, while far fewer say it is more than enough (12%) or j ust enough (24%). The view that there is not enough funding was much higher in November 2011 and 2010 (74% each) but the same in October 2007 (57% ). Today, Democrats (74%) are the most likely to say there is not enough funding, followed by independents (57 %) and Republicans (38%). Majorities across regions and demographic groups —except whites (48%) —think there is not enough funding. Residents of Los Angeles (63%) are the most likely to hold this view , followed by residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (60% ), the Inland Empire (59%), Orange/San Diego (57%), and the Central Valley (56%). Women (63%) are somewhat more likely than men (54%) to say funding is not enough. Across racial/ethnic groups, blacks (69%), Latinos (66%), and Asians (65%) are much more likely than whites (48%) to express this view. “Do you think the current level of state funding for California’s public colleges and universities is more than enough, just enough, or not enough?” All adults Party Race/Ethnicity Dem Rep Ind Asians Blacks Latinos Whites Not enough 59% 74 % 38 % 57 % 65 % 69 % 66 % 48 % Just enough 24 15 28 31 26 23 22 26 More than enough 12 5 28 10 6 6 9 16 Don’t know 6 6 6 2 3 2 3 10 However, m ajorities of adults (56%) and likely voters (58%) are not willing to pay higher taxes to maintain current funding levels for public colleges and universities. Seventy -six percent of Republicans would not pay higher taxes for this purpose, compared to 51 percent of independents and 44 percent of Democrats. With the exception of the San Francisco Bay Area (45%) , a majority of residents across regions would not pay higher taxes to maintain higher education funding (62% Orange/San Diego, 60% Inland Empire, 58% Central Valley, and 56% Los Angeles). At least half across racial/ethnic groups oppose higher taxes, and opposition increases as age increases. As student tuition increases are being discussed, three -quarters of both adults and likely voters (77% each) sa y they are not willing to increase student fees to maintain current level s of funding for public colleges and universities. More than seven in 10 Californians across parties, regions, and demographic groups oppose student fee increases . Opposition to raising student fees has increased 15 points since the survey first asked this question in 2008 and is at an all -time high (62% November 200 8, 68% November 2009, 62% November 2010, 69% November 2011, 77% today). “What if the state said it needed more money just to maintain current funding for public colleges and universities. Would you be willing to…?” All Adults Party Likely Voters Dem Rep Ind Pay higher taxes for this purpose, or not Yes 42 % 54 % 22 % 47 % 40 % No 56 44 76 51 58 Don't know 2 2 2 2 2 Increase student fees for this purpose, or not Yes 21 19 22 15 20 No 77 78 76 83 77 Don't know 2 3 1 2 2 December 2014 Californians and the Future 22 PPIC Statewide S urvey CLIMATE CHANGE AND CALIFORNIA’S ECONOMY Governor Brown has said climate change will be a priority in his fourth term , and President Obama recently reached a climate change agreement with China. With climate change on the government agenda, how do Californians view this issue? Three in four Californians (76%) say that global warming is a very serious (53%) or somewhat (23%) se rious threat to California’s future economy and quality of life. More than seven in 10 Californians have expressed this view since we started asking the question in July 2005. There are partisan differences: Democrats (70%, up 11 points since July) are far more likely than independents (46%) and Republicans (20%) to consider global warming a very serious threat. More than six in 10 blacks (68%) and Latinos (63%) say global warming is a very serious threat, compared to half of Asians (53%) and four in 10 whi tes (42%). Californians age 18 t o 34 (57%) and between age 35 to 54 (55%) are somewhat more likely than those age 55 and above (46%) to consider global warming a very serious threat. Californians with household incomes less than $40,000 (65%) are far more likely than those with higher incomes to hold this view (42% $40,000 --$79,000, 43% $80,000 or more). “How serious of a threat is global warming to the economy and quality of life for California’s future?” All adults Race/Ethnicity Likely voters Asians Blacks Latinos Whites Very serious 53% 53 % 68 % 63 % 42 % 46 % Somewhat serious 23 28 17 25 22 21 Not too serious 11 12 8 7 15 14 Not at all serious 12 5 6 4 20 18 Don’t know 2 1 2 1 2 1 Four in 10 adults (43%) think that California ’s efforts to reduce global warming will result in more jobs for people around the state, while 21 percent say it will result in fewer jobs and 29 percent say it will not affect job numbers. In surveys dating back to July 2010, a plurality of Californians has said taking action on global warming will result in more jobs. A majority of Democrats (56%) hold this view, as do a plurality of independents (47%). Republicans are divided (29% more jobs, 30% fewer jobs, 30% no effect on jobs). Californians in the Inlan d Empire (56%) are the most likely and those in Orange/San Diego (36%) the least likely to believe efforts to reduce global warming will lead to more jobs. Four in 10 residents in Los Angeles (43%), the Central Valley (42%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (42%) agree. Adults age 18 to 34 (52%) are more likely than older Californians (40% age 35 to 54, 37% age 55 and older) to believe that efforts to reduce global warming will result in more jobs. “Do you think that California doing things to reduce global w arming will cause there to be more jobs for people around the state, will cause there to be fewer jobs, or won’t affect the number of jobs for people around the state?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind More jobs 43% 56 % 29 % 47 % 47 % Fewer jobs 21 13 30 23 21 Wouldn’t affect number of jobs 29 23 30 23 23 Don’t know 7 8 11 6 8 December 2014 Californians and the Future 23 REGIONAL MAP December 2014 Californians and the Future 24 METHODOLOGY The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance from Dean Bonner, associate survey director and project manager for this survey, and survey research associates Renatta DeFever, L unna Lopes, and Jui Shrestha. This survey on Californians and the Future is supported with funding from the Blue Shield of California Foundation, the California Postsecondar y Education Commission Foundati on, The San Francisco Foundation, and the S. D. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation. The PPIC Statewide Survey invites input, comments, and suggestions from policy and public opinion experts and from its own advisory committee, but survey methods, questions, and content are determined solely by PPIC’s survey team. Findings in this report are based on a survey of 1,70 4 California adult residents, including 1,108 interviewed on landline telephones and 596 interviewed on cell phones. Interviews took an average of 20 minutes to complete. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights from November 10–17 , 2014. Landline interviews were conducted using a computer -generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible for selection, and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as six times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult r espondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Cell phone interviews were conducted using a computer -generated random sample of cell phone numbers. All cell phone numbers with California area codes were eligible for selection, and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as eight times to increase the likelihood of reaching an eligible respondent. Once a cell phone user was reached, it was verified that this person was age 18 or older, a resident of California, and in a safe place to continue the survey (e.g., not driving). Cell phone respondents were offered a small reimbursement to help defray the cost of the call. Cell phone interviews were conducted with adult s who have cell phone service only and with those who have both cell phone and landline service in the h ousehold. Live landline and cell phone interviews were conducted by Abt SRBI, Inc., in English and Spanish, according to respondents’ preferences. Accent on Languages, Inc., translated new survey questions into Spanish. Abt SRBI uses the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2010– 2012 American Community Survey’s (ACS) Public Use Microdata Series for California (with regional coding information from the University of Minnesota’s Integrated Public Use Microdata Series for California) to compare certain demographic characteristics of the survey sample— region, age, gender, race/ethnicity, and education —with the characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the ACS figures. To estimate landline and cell phone service in California, Abt SRBI used 2012 state -level estimates released by the National Center for Health Statistics —which used data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the ACS —and 2013 estimates for the West Census Region in the latest NHIS report. The estimates for California were then compared against landline and cell phone service reported in this survey. We also used voter registration data from the California Secretary of State to compare the party registration of registered voters in our sample to party registration statewide. The landline and cell phone samples were then integrated using a frame integration weight, while sample December 2014 Californians and the Future 25 PPIC Statewide Survey balancing adjusted for differences across regional, age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, telephone service, and party registration groups. The sampling error, taking design effects from weighting into consideration, is ±3. 7 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total unweighted sample of 1,704 adults. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 3. 7 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for unweighted subgroups is larger: for the 1,382 registered voters, the sampling error is ±4. 0 percent; for the 1,058 likely voters, it is ±4.6 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. We present results for five geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “ Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, “Inland Empire” refers to Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, and “Orange/San Diego” refers to Orange and San Diego Counties. Residents of other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, likely voters, and primary likely voters, but sample sizes for these less populous areas are not large enough to report separately. In several places, we refer to coastal and inland counties. The “ coastal” region refers to the counties along the California coast from Del Norte County to San Diego County and includes all the San Francisco Bay Area counties. All other counties are included in the “inland” region. We present specific results for non- Hispanic whites and also for Latinos, who account for about a third of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest -growing voter groups. We also present results for non -Hispanic Asians, who make up about 14 percent of the state’s adult population, and non- Hispanic blacks, who comprise about 6 percent. Results for other racial/ethnic groups—such as Native Americans —are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes are not large enough for separate analysis. We compare the opinions of those who report they are registered Democrats, registered Republicans, and decline -to -state or independent voters; the results for those who say they are registered to vote in other parties are not large enough for separate analysis. We also analyze the responses of likely voters —so designated by their responses to voter registration survey questions, previous election participation, and current interest in politics. The percentages presented in the report tables and in the questionnaire may not add to 100 due to rounding. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey results to those in our earlier surveys and to those in national surveys by the Kaiser Family Foundation. A dditional details about our methodology can be found at www.ppic.org/content/other/SurveyMethodology.pdf and are available upon request through surveys@ppic.org . December 2014 Californians and the Future 26 QUESTIONNAIRE AND RESULTS CALIFORNIANS AND THE FUTURE November 1 0–1 7, 2014 1 ,704 California Adult Residents: English , Spanish MARGIN OF ERROR ±3.7 % AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMP LE PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 1 00 DUE TO ROUNDING 1. First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today? [code, don’t read ] 29% jobs, economy 23 water, drought 7 education , schools, teachers 7 immigration, illegal immigration 5 state budget, deficit, taxes 4 crime, gangs, drugs 4 health care, health reform, Obamacare 3 housing costs, availability 14 other 4 don’t know 2. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California? 54% approve 28 disapprove 18 don’t know 3. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job? 41% approve 42 disapprove 17 don’t know 3 a. How much confidence do you have in the g overnor and California Legislature when it com es to their ability to solve the state’s most important problems —a great deal, only some, very little, or none? 16% a great deal 41 only some 29 very little 12 none 3 don’t know 4 . Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 50% right direction 42 wrong direction 8 don’t know 5. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 52% good times 39 bad times 9 don’t know 6. Some people think that California is divided into economic groups, the haves and have - nots, while others think it is not divided that way. Do you think that California is divided into haves and have -nots, or do you think that California is not divided that way? 68% divided into haves and have- nots 28 not divided that way 4 don’t know December 2014 Californians and the Future 27 PPIC Statewide Survey 7. If you had to choose, which of these groups are you in— the haves or have- nots? 40% haves 46 have -nots 9 neither (volunteered) 5 don’t know 7a. Do you think that in California today [ rotate ] (1 ) all people have an e qua l opportunity to get ahead, [or] (2 ) the government should do more to make sure that all Californians have an e qual opportunity to get ahead. 41% people have eq ual opportunity 52 government should do more 1 both (volunteered) 3 neither (volunteered) 3 don’t know Next, 8. How much confidence do you have in the state government’s ability to plan for the state’s future and growth —a great deal, on ly some, very little, or none? 17% a great deal 46 only some 25 very little 10 none 2 don’t know 8a. How much confidence do you have in your local governments’ abilities to plan for growth and the future in your part of California —a great deal, only some, very little, or none? 19% a great deal 48 only some 23 very little 9 none 2 don’t know 9. Ove rall, do you think that in 2025 California will be a better place to live than it is now or a worse place to live than it is now or will there be no change? 37% better place 28 worse place 29 no change 6 don’t know 9a. When children today in Californi a grow up, do you think they will be better off or worse off financially than their parents ? 37% better off 55 worse off 3 same (volunteered) 5 don’t know 1 0. Next, do you think the state budget situation in California —that is, the balance between g overnment spending and revenues —is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today? 51% big problem 39 somewhat of a problem 8 not a problem 3 don’t know 11 . In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more — [rotate ] (1 ) I’d rather pay higher taxes and have a state government tha t provides more services, [or] ( 2 ) I’d rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services? 50% higher taxes and more services 44 lower taxes and fewer services 6 don’t know 12 . Overall, do you think the state budget process in California, in terms of both revenues and spending, is in need of major changes, minor changes, or do you think it is fine the way it is? 59% major changes 27 minor changes 9 fine the way it is 4 don’t know December 2014 Californians and the Future 28 PPIC Statewide Survey 13. As you may know, voters passed Proposition 3 0 in November 20 12 . It increased taxes on earnings over $2 50,000 for seven years and sales taxes by one q uarter cent for four years, to fund schools and guarantee public safety realignment funding. Do you favor or oppose extending the Proposition 30 tax increases which are set to fully expire in 2 0 18? 53% favor 40 oppose 6 don’t know For each of the following, please say if you favor or oppose the proposal. [rotate questions 14 to 17] 14. How about extending the state sales tax to services that are not currently taxed while lowering the overall sales tax rate? 42% favor 48 oppose 10 don’t know 14a. How about extending the state sal es tax to services that are not currently taxed? 29% favor 62 oppose 9 don’t know 1 5. How about increasing state taxes on the purchase of alcoholic beverages? 68% favor 30 oppose 1 don’t know 1 6. How about increasing state taxes on the purchase of cigarettes? 74% favor 25 oppose 1 don’t know 1 7. How about taxing the extraction of oil and natural gas in California? 45% favor 49 oppose 5 don’t know 1 8. Overall, do you think the state and local tax system is in need of major changes, minor changes, or do you think it is fine the way it is? 44% major changes 38 minor changes 16 fine the way it is 2 don’t know 1 9. On another topic, would you say that the supply of water is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem in your part of California? 60% big problem 21 somewhat of a problem 18 not much of a problem 1 don’t know 2 0. Overall, do you think that the state and local gov ernments are doing too much, the right amount, or not enough to respond to the current drought in California? 6% too much 30 the right amount 60 not enough 5 don’t know 20a. If your local water district had a bond measure on the ballot to pay for water supply infrastructure projects, would you vote yes or no? 70% yes 24 no 6 don’t know December 2014 Californians and the Future 29 PPIC Statewide Survey Changing topics, I’m going to read you a list of issues people have mentioned when talking about California’s public higher education system today. For each one, please tell me if you think it is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem. First… [rotate questions 21 and 22 ] 21 . How about the overall quality of education in California’s public colleges and universities today? 25% big problem 36 somewhat of a problem 34 not much of a problem 5 don’t know 22 . How about the overall affordability of education for students in California’s public colleges and universities today? 59% big problem 27 somewhat of a problem 12 not much of a problem 1 don’t know 23 .Next, do you think the current level of state funding for California’s public colleges and universities is more than enough, just enough, or not enough? 12% more than enough 24 just enough 59 not enough 6 don’t know Next, what if th e state said it needed more money just to maintain current funding for public colleges and universities? [rotate questions 24 and 25 ] 24 . Would you be willing to pay higher taxes for this purpose, or not? 42% yes 56 no 2 don’t know 2 5 . Would you be willing to increase student fees for this purpose, or not? 21% yes 77 no 2 don’t know 2 5a. What if there was a bond measure on the state ballot to pay for construction projects in California’s higher education system? Would you vote yes or no? 54% yes 42 no 4 don’t know 2 6. In general, how important is California’s public higher education system to the q uality of life and economic vitality of the state over the next 2 0 years—very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 76% very important 19 somewhat important 3 not too important 1 not at all important 1 don’t know 2 7.I n thinking ahead 20 years, if current trends continue, do you think California will h ave [rotate 1 and 2 ] ( 1 ) more than enough, ( 2) n ot enough, or just enough college- educated residents needed for the jobs and skills likely to be in demand? 17% more than enough 47 not enough 32 just enough 4 don’t know 2 8. How much confidence do you have in the state government’s ability to plan for the future of California’s public higher education system —a great deal, only some, very little, or none? 14% a great deal 46 only some 28 very little 11 none 1 don’t know December 2014 Californians and the Future 30 PPIC Statewide Survey Changing topics, 2 9 . How much of the time do you think you can trust the state government in Sacramento to do what is right —just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time? 7% just about always 25 most of the time 61 only some of the time 5 none of the time (volunteered) 2 don’t know 3 0. Would you say the state government is pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves, or that it is run for the benefit of all of the people? 67% a few big interests 28 benefit of all of the people 5 don’t know 31 . Do you think the people in state government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes, waste some of it, or don’t waste very much of it? 54% a lot 35 some 8 don’t waste very much 2 don’t know Next, 32 . As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 20 10. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a [ rotate ] (1 ) [generally favorable] [ or ] (2 ) [generally unfavorable] opinion of it? 46% generally favorable 43 generally unfa vorable 10 don’t know 33 . As you may know, as part of the 2 01 0 health care law the government has set up health insurance exchanges around the country that people can use to compare plans and purchase health insurance. Just your impression, how well has California’s health insurance exchange called “Covered California” been working —very well, fairly well, not too well, or not at all well? 15% very well 37 fairly well 25 not too well 14 not at all well 9 don’t know [rotate questions 34 to 35a ] 34 . In the long run, do you think that California will be [ rotate ] (1 ) [better off] [ or ] (2 ) [worse off] under the health reform law, or don’t you think it will make much difference? 37% better off 25 worse off 34 not much difference 1 both, it depends (volunteered) 3 don’t know 3 5. In the long run, do you think that you and your family will be [rotate] (1 ) [better off] [ or ] ( 2 ) [worse off] under the health reform law, or don’t you think it will make much difference? 26% better off 22 worse off 49 not much difference – both, it depends (volunteered) 3 don’t know 35a. In the long run, do you think that uninsured Californians will be [rotate] (1 ) [better off] [ or ] ( 2 ) [worse off] under the health reform law, or don’t you think it will make much difference? 37% better off 24 worse off 34 not much difference 1 both, it depends (volunteered) 4 don’t know December 2014 Californians and the Future 31 PPIC Statewide Survey Changing topics, 3 6. How serious of a threat is global warming to the economy and quality of life for California’s future— do you think that it is a very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not at all serious of a threat? 53% very serious 23 somewhat serious 11 not too serious 12 not at all serious 2 don’t know 3 7. Do you think that California doing things to reduce global warming in the future would cause there to be more jobs for people around the state, would cause there to be fewer jobs, or wouldn’t affect the number of jobs for people around the state? 43% more jobs 21 fewer jobs 29 wouldn’t affect the number of jobs 7 don’t know 38 . Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are yo u absolutely certain that you are register ed to vote in California? 66% yes [ask q 38a] 34 no [skip to q 39b] 38a. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or are you registered as a decline -to -state or independent voter? 44% Democrat [ask q 39] 28 Republican [skip to q 39a] 5 another party (specify) [skip to q 40] 23 independent [skip to q40] 39 . Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 51% strong 47 not very strong 2 don’t know [skip to q41] 39a. Would you call yourself a strong Republican o r not a very strong Repu blican? 57% strong 39 not very strong 3 don’t know [skip to q41] 39b.Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republ ican Party or Democratic Party? 26% Republican Party 45 Democratic Party 23 neither (volunteered) 5 don’t know 4 0 . Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 12% very liberal 19 somewhat liberal 32 middle -of -the -road 22 somewhat conservative 13 very conservative 2 don’t know 4 1 . Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics —a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 21% great deal 35 fair amount 33 only a little 11 none [d1 to d5:demographic questions ] December 2014 Californians and the Future 32 PPIC Statewide Survey D6. Are you, yourself, now covered by any form of health ins urance or health plan or do you not have health insurance at this time? D6a. Which of the following is your main source of health insurance coverage? Is it a plan through your employer, a plan through your spouse’s employer, a plan you purchased yourself ei ther from an insurance company or the state or federal marketplace, are you covered by Medicare or Medi -C al , or do you get your health insuranc e from somewhere else? 84% yes, covered by health insurance 30 through employer 14 Medicare 13 Medi -Cal 12 through spouse’s employer 7 self-purchased plan [ask d6b] 4 through parents/mother/ father (volunteered ) 2 somewhere else (specify) 2 other government plan (volunteered ) 16 not insured [ask d6d] 1 don’t know/refused D6b. [of those who purchased a plan themselves] Did you purchase your plan directly from an insurance company, from the marketplace known as healthcare.gov or Covered California, or through an insurance agent or broker? ( if agent or broker: Do you know if the plan you purch ased through a broker was a plan from the state or federal health insurance marketplace known as healthcare.gov or Covered California, or was it a plan purchased directly from an insurance company and not through an exchange or marketplace? ) 44% from an i nsurance company, either directly or through a broker 45 from healthcare.gov/ Covered California, either directly or through a broker 11 don’t know/refused Summary of D6, D6a, D6b 84 % yes, covered by health insurance 30 through employer 14 Medicare 13 Medi -Cal 12 through spouse’s employer 7 self-purchased plan 3 from an insurance company, either directly or through a broker 3 from healthcare.gov/ Covered California, either directly or through a broker 1 don’t know 4 through parents/mother/ father (volunteered) 2 somewhere else (specify) 2 other government plan (volunteered) 16 not insured 1 don’t know/refused [skip to d7 ] December 2014 Californians and the Future 33 PPIC Statewide Survey [ d6d to d6f asked of uninsured adults ] D6d. [uninsured only] How long have you been uninsured —less than three months, three months to less than a year, one y ear to less than two years, or two years or more? 13% less than three months 14 three months to less than a year 21 one year to less than two years 48 two year s or more 4 don’t know D6e. [uninsured only] As you may know, the 2010 health care law requires nearly all Americans to have health insurance by 2014 or else pay a fine. Do you think you will obtain health insurance in 2014, or do you think you will remai n uninsured? 71% will obtain health insurance [ask d6f] 26 will remain uninsured [skip to d7] 3 don’t know [skip to d7] D6f. [uninsured who plan to get insurance only] Which of the following is the main reason you plan to get insurance? Is it because [ rotate 1 -4, keep 5 always last ] (1) the law requires it, (2) you don’t want to pay the penalty for not having insurance, (3) you are eligible for government financial help, (4) a new insurance option has become available to you, [or] (5) some other reason? 24% don’t want to pay the penalty 20 law requires it 16 eligible for government financial help 13 new insurance option became available 26 some other reason (specify) 1 don’t know [d7 to d16: demographic questions] December 2014 Californians and the Future 34 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect Angela Blackwell Founder and CEO PolicyLink Mollyann Brodie Senior Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Bill Lane Center for the American West Stanford University Jon Cohen Vice President of Survey Research SurveyMonkey Joshua J. Dyck Co-Director Center for Public Opinion University of Massachusetts, Lowell Russell Hancock President and CEO Joint Venture Silicon Valley Network Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Robert Lapsley President California Business Roundtable Carol S. Larson President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Monica Lozano Chairman US Hispanic Media, Inc. Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Lisa Pitney Vice President, Government Relations The Walt Disney Company Robert K. Ross, M.D. President and CEO The California Endowment Most Reverend Jaime Soto Bishop of Sacramento Roman Catholic Diocese of Sacramento Carol Whiteside President Emeritus Great Valley Center The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PPIC BOARD OF DIRECTORS Donna Lucas, Chair Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Mark Baldassare President and CEO Public Policy Institute of California Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect María Blanco Vice President, Civic Engagement California Community Foundation Brigitte Bren Attorney Louise Henry Bryson Chair Emerita, Board of Trustees J. Paul Getty Trust Walter B. Hewlett Member, Board of Directors The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Phil Isenberg Vice Chair, Delta Stewardship Council Mas Masumoto Author and F armer Steven A. Merksamer Senior Partner Nielsen, Merksamer, Parrinello, Gross & Leoni , LLP Kim Polese Chairman ClearStreet, Inc. Thomas C. Sutton Retired Chairman and CEO Pacific Life Insurance Company The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research on major economic, social, and political issues. The institute’s goal is to raise public awareness and to give elected representatives and other decision makers a more informed basis for developing policies and programs. The institute’s research focuses on the underlying forces shaping California’s future, cutting across a wide range of public policy concerns, including economic development, education, environment and resources, governance, population, public finance, and social and health policy. PPIC is a public charity . It does not take or support positions on any ballot measures or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. PPIC was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. Mark Baldassare is President and CEO of PPIC. Donna Lucas is Chair of the Board of Directors. Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source and the copyright notice below is included. Copyright © 201 4 Public Policy Institute of California All rights reserved. San Francisco, CA PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, California 94111 phone: 415.291.4400 fax: 415.291.4401 PPIC SACRAMENTO CENT ER Senator Office Building 1121 L Street, Suite 801 Sacramento, California 95814 phone: 916.440.1120 fax: 916.440.1121 www.ppic.org survey@ppic.org"
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