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object(Timber\Post)#3742 (44) { ["ImageClass"]=> string(12) "Timber\Image" ["PostClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Post" ["TermClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Term" ["object_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["custom"]=> array(5) { ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(12) "S_802MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "277144" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(78717) "PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY AUGUST 2002 Public Policy Institute of California Californians and Their Government ○○○○○ Mark Baldassare Senior Fellow & Survey Director The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) is a private operating foundation established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. The Institute is dedicated to improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. PPIC’s research agenda focuses on three program areas: population, economy, and governance and public finance. Studies within these programs are examining the underlying forces shaping California’s future, cutting across a wide range of public policy concerns, including education, health care, immigration, income distribution, welfare, urban growth, and state and local finance. PPIC was created because three concerned citizens – William R. Hewlett, Roger W. Heyns, and Arjay Miller – recognized the need for linking objective research to the realities of California public policy. Their goal was to help the state’s leaders better understand the intricacies and implications of contemporary issues and make informed public policy decisions when confronted with challenges in the future. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or state and federal legislation nor does it endorse or support any political parties or candidates for public office. David W. Lyon is founding President and Chief Executive Officer of PPIC. Raymond L. Watson is Chairman of the Board of Directors. Public Policy Institute of California 500 Washington Street, Suite 800 • San Francisco, California 94111 Telephone: (415) 291-4400 • Fax: (415) 291-4401 info@ppic.org • www.ppic.org Preface The PPIC Statewide Survey series is designed to provide policymakers, the media, and the general public with objective, advocacy-free information on the perceptions, opinions, and public policy preferences of California residents. Begun in April 1998, the survey series has generated a database that includes the responses of over 54,000 Californians. The current survey is the tenth in our Californians and Their Government series, which will be conducted on a periodic basis throughout the 2002 election cycle. The series is focusing on the social, economic, and political trends and public policy preferences that underlie ballot choices in statewide races and citizens’ initiatives. This report presents the responses of 2,014 adult residents throughout the state on a wide range of issues: • The California election in 2002, including likely voter preferences in the governor’s race, satisfaction with the candidate choices, voters’ attention to news and political advertising, and support for state propositions on the November ballot. • Californians’ attitudes toward the September 11th terrorist attacks and homeland security—including concerns about the threat of terrorism, perception of the problem of terrorism in California today, attitudes toward the local, state, and federal governments’ response to the threat of terrorism, and confidence in local government’s ability to respond to homeland security issues—and personal plans for the one-year anniversary of September 11th. • Economic and political trends, including overall outlook on the economy and direction of the state, perceptions of regional economies, perceived financial effects of the recent stock market decline, and approval ratings for the governor and the president. • How growing regions and groups such as the Central Valley, Latinos, and independent voters affect overall statewide trends in ballot choices and policy preferences. This report presents the results of the twenty-seventh PPIC Statewide Survey. The surveys have included a number of special editions focusing on particular regions and themes: • The Central Valley (11/99, 3/01, 4/02) • Population Growth (5/01) • San Diego County (7/02) • Land Use (11/01) • Orange County (9/01) • The Environment (6/00, 6/02) • U.S.-Japan Relations (9/01) Copies of this report may be ordered by e-mail (order@ppic.org) or phone (415-291-4400). Copies of this and earlier reports are also posted on the publications page of the PPIC web site (www.ppic.org). -i- Contents Preface Press Release California 2002 Elections September 11th: One Year Later Economic and Political Trends Survey Methodology Survey Questions and Results Survey Advisory Committee i v 1 9 15 19 21 26 - iii - Press Release NEITHER / NOR: CALIFORNIANS UNSATISFIED WITH CHOICES IN GOVERNOR’S RACE Majority Believe State Still Mired in Recession; Most Will Commemorate Anniversary of September 11 SAN FRANCISCO, California, August 29, 2002 — Facing gloomy economic times, Californians are intensely interested in the race for governor but not inspired by their choices, according to a new survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC). Defying the conventional wisdom that voters tune in to the general election only after Labor Day, 74 percent of the state’s likely voters today say they are closely following news about the gubernatorial candidates, compared to 56 percent in the month before the March primary. And voters are taking note of the political advertising that is already saturating the airwaves: 68 percent say they have seen commercials by Democratic Governor Gray Davis (54%) and his Republican challenger Bill Simon (14%). But despite their keen interest, a majority of California’s voters say they are not content with their choices in the race for governor: 54 percent express dissatisfaction with the choice of candidates, while only 38 percent say they are satisfied. In fact, a majority of voters across all regions of the state — men and women alike — say they don’t like their choices. Republicans (58%) are slightly more likely than Democrats (50%) to say they are not satisfied with the candidates. “It’s a long road until November, but at this point neither candidate is connecting with voters on the issues they care about,“ says survey director Mark Baldassare. Among likely voters, Davis leads Simon by 11 points (41% to 30%), with no third-party candidate receiving more than 4 percent of the vote. Davis is buoyed by strong support from Latinos, women, and independent voters. While non-Hispanic whites are divided between the two candidates (35% each), Latinos favor Davis by more that 2-to-1 (58% to 22%). There is a substantial gender gap: Women support Davis over Simon by 19 points (44% to 25%), while men are split (37% to 36%). Thirty-one percent of independent and third-party voters choose Davis, while Simon (19%) is virtually tied with Green Party candidate Peter Miguel Camejo (18%) among this group. Voters Prefer Simon on Electricity, Davis on Ethics As was the case in the primary, California’s likely voters are most eager to hear the candidates talk about the three E’s — education (17%), the economy (13%), and electricity (11%) — during the fall campaign. When asked which candidate would do a better job on these issues, voters prefer Davis over Simon on education (50% to 29%), are split on the economy (40% each), and select Simon over Davis on electricity and energy policy (43% to 34%). By a narrow margin, voters also say that Davis will do a better job on state budget and tax issues (42% to 39%). Davis also gets the nod when it comes to maintaining high ethical standards in government: 43 percent prefer Davis on this issue, compared to 28 percent for Simon. But despite recent reports of financial fraud and accounting scandals in the corporate world, California voters remain as likely today as in the 1998 governor’s race to be split over their preference for a candidate who has experience in running a business (42%) versus experience in elected office (44%). -v- Press Release Majorities Back After-School Programs, Same-Day Voter Registration Support for Proposition 49—a measure that would increase state funding for before- and after-school programs—is running high, with 59 percent of likely voters supporting the measure. Interestingly, the initiative, which has been promoted by GOP activist Arnold Schwarzenegger, receives its strongest support from Democrats (72% yes, 17% no), while Republicans oppose the measure (39% yes, 51% no). But both parties agree on one aspect of the proposition: Democrats (76%) and Republicans (52%) say that the funding it provides would improve children’s safety. A majority of Democrats (66%) also say that the measure will raise student test scores, while a majority of Republicans (50%) say it will not. Overall, 67 percent of voters say that Proposition 49 will improve safety for children and 54 percent believe it will help raise test scores. A slimmer majority (52%) say they favor Proposition 52—a measure that would allow eligible California adults to register to vote on election day. Again, Democrats support the initiative (56% yes, 33% no), while Republicans are more likely to oppose it (43% yes, 48% no). Support for Prop. 52 is also high among independents (58% yes, 33% no). Only small percentages of likely voters believe that this same-day voter registration measure will greatly boost voter turnout (8%), as claimed by advocates, or significantly increase voter fraud (12%), as alleged by critics. Stock Market Losses Impose Economic Pall California residents are far less optimistic about the state’s overall direction and economic prospects than they were just six months ago. Today, only 44 percent believe the state is headed in the right direction, compared to 56 percent in February. And 51 percent say they expect bad times financially in the coming year. “The boost in optimism we saw around the new year seems to have dissipated, and we’re back to where we were one year ago,” says Baldassare. But consistent with earlier trends, Latinos are far more likely than non-Hispanic whites to believe that the state is headed in the right direction (58% to 39%) and to expect good times in the year ahead (52% to 35%). For all the reports of economic recovery, the percentage of Californians (54%) who believe their region is in an economic recession remains virtually unchanged since February. Although near majorities in every region of the state say their region is facing a recession, the perception is strongest in the San Francisco Bay Area, where 73 percent of residents say the economy is in recession and 26 percent believe the situation is serious. In February, 19 percent of Bay Area residents called the recession serious. Why the economic pessimism? The stock market may be a big factor: A majority of Californians believe they are casualties of the recent stock market slump—whether or not they are stockholders. More than half (55%) of state residents say their financial situation has suffered because of the stock market decline. While the finances of stock owners are most heavily affected by the downturn, it has also had a spillover effect on others: 72 percent of stockholders and 33 percent of those who do not own stocks say their financial situation has suffered. Older and high-income residents are more likely than younger, lowerincome Californians to say they have been hurt by the market’s slump. September 11th: Californians Edgy One Year Later As Californians face the anniversary of September 11th, they remain concerned about the possibility of future attacks: 64 percent view terrorism and security as a problem in the state, with 23 percent calling it a big problem. Despite this anxiety, most residents are not worried that they or someone in their family will be the victim of a terrorist attack: Only 12 percent are very worried about the prospect. Why the disconnect? Residents worry more about power plants and water supplies (37%) than about airports and airplanes (17%), high-rise buildings and downtown areas (10%), and roads, bridges, and tunnels (9%) combined. Residents of Los Angeles (21%), the site of a recent airport shooting, are most concerned about - vi - Press Release airports and airplanes, while Bay Area residents (21%) express greatest concern about roads, bridges, and tunnels. Although they are uneasy about terrorism, many Californians do have confidence in their government officials and agencies. Seventy percent of state residents say they approve of the way President George W. Bush is dealing with terrorism and security, and 62 percent also support Governor Davis’ handling of the issue. In addition, 55 percent say they are at least somewhat confident that U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies will be able to prevent future attacks. And they express even greater confidence in the readiness of their local fire department (90%), local police department (74%), and public health agencies (69%) to respond to a terrorist threat. However, although Californians support passage of legislation to create a Department of Homeland Security (60%), they remain more concerned that government will restrict civil liberties in their fight against terrorism (51%) than they are worried that government will fail to enact strong anti-terrorism laws (41%). Notably, Latinos remain far more likely than non-Hispanic whites to see terrorism and security in California as a big problem (38% to 18%) and to be very worried that they or a loved one will be the victim of a terrorist attack (33% to 4%). However, they also express greater confidence that their government officials and agencies can respond to the challenge. More key findings • Observing September 11th (page 9) Although most Californians (74%) say they plan to treat September 11th as they would any other day rather than taking special precautions, 77 percent also say they will observe the day by taking a moment of silent prayer, gathering with friends, or attending a memorial service. Seventy-five percent also expect to display the flag or other American symbols. • Overall Approval Ratings for Bush, Davis (page 18) Support for President Bush remains high in California: 64 percent of state residents say they approve of the job he is doing, while only 32 percent disapprove. Governor Davis has improved his standing among Californians, with 51 percent saying they approve of his performance as governor compared to 39 percent in June. Both Bush (72%) and Davis (69%) enjoy strong support from Latinos. About the Survey The purpose of the PPIC Statewide Survey is to develop an in-depth profile of the social, economic, and political forces affecting California elections and public policy preferences. PPIC will conduct large-scale public opinion surveys on a regular basis leading up to the November 2002 election. Findings of the current survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,014 California adult residents interviewed from August 14 to August 21, 2002. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish. The sampling error for the total sample is +/- 2%. The sampling error for the 1,549 registered voters is +/- 2.5% and for the 993 likely voters is +/3%. For more information on survey methodology, see page 19. Mark Baldassare is research director at PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder and director of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has conducted since 1998. PPIC is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to improving public policy through objective, nonpartisan research on the economic, social, and political issues that affect Californians. The Institute was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or state and federal legislation nor does it endorse or support any political parties or candidates for public office. This report will appear on PPIC’s website (www. ppic.org) on August 29. See graphics next page. ### - vii - If the election for governor were being held today, would you vote for…? Davis Simon Other Don't know 18% 11% 41% Are you satisfied with the choices of candidates for governor on November 5th? Satisfied Not satisfied Don't know 8% 38% 30% __________________________P_e_rc_e_nt_L_ik_e_ly__V_ot_e_rs___ Which candidate would do a better job on maintaining high ethical standards in government? 50 43 40 28 30 18 20 11 10 0 Davis SimoOnther/Neither Don't know __________________________P_e_r_c_en_t_L_ik_e_ly_V_o_t_er_s__ Top four terrorist targets in California 40 37 30 20 17 10 10 0 9 PoHAiwigrerhp/Rorwirotasatse/edrsba,siurbiulrpipldidpalnignegeessss Percent All Adults 54% ____________________P_e_r_c_en_t_L_ik_e_ly_V_o_t_er_s__ Do you expect to do anything special in memory of the victims of September 11th? Yes 22% No Don't know 1% 77% __________________________P_e_rc_e_n_t _A_ll_A_d_ul_ts__ Has your financial situation suffered because of the stock market decline? Percent "Yes" 80 69 60 55 40 43 56 53 20 0 All Central SF Bay Adults Valley Area LA OSC Percent All Adults California 2002 Elections Governor’s Race As Labor Day approaches and political campaigns move into high gear, incumbent governor Democrat Gray Davis leads Republican challenger Bill Simon by 11 points. Among likely November voters, 41 percent would vote for Davis, 30 percent for Simon. The third-party candidates each receive less than 5 percent of the vote, and 18 percent of voters have not decided on a candidate. In the last PPIC Statewide Survey taken before the March primary, Davis had a 4-point lead over Simon (44% to 40%) in a then-hypothetical contest. Since then, Davis’ support has dropped by 3 points, but Simon’s support has eroded by 10. Davis is highly favored by Democrats, and Simon has equally strong support among Republicans. Independent voters and other voters lean toward Davis at this time, and Green Party candidate Peter Miguel Camejo is tied with Simon among the likely voters outside of the major parties. Likely voters in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles favor Davis, and Simon has strong support in the Central Valley, while Davis and Simon are tied in Other Southern California. Women favor Davis over Simon by a 19-point margin (44% to 25%), while men are more evenly split (37% to 36%). Conservatives favor Simon over Davis by more than a three-to-one margin (62% to 18%). Davis leads among moderates (44% to 20%) and is the overwhelming favorite among liberals (65% to 5%). Davis and Simon have equal support among non-Hispanic whites (35% each), but Latinos overwhelmingly support Davis over Simon (58% to 22%). Davis leads Simon in all age, education, and major income categories, but his lead narrows among voters 55 and older (39% to 35%), and those with only some college education (38% to 32%) and with annual household incomes of $40,000 or more (36% to 33%). "If the election for governor were being held today, would you vote for…" Likely Voters Gray Davis Bill Simon Peter Miguel Camejo Gary David Copeland Reinhold Gulke Someone else Don’t know All Likely Voters 41% 30 4 4 1 2 18 Dem 69% 8 2 4 1 2 14 Party Rep 11% 63 0 4 1 3 18 Ind/ Other* 31% 19 18 5 4 2 21 Central Valley 25% 48 3 4 0 2 18 Region SF Bay Area 47% 16 7 5 2 1 22 Los Angeles 50% 25 1 3 1 5 15 Other Southern California 37% 37 3 4 1 2 16 Latino 58% 22 3 4 0 0 13 *In this table, Californians registered to vote as independents (“decline-to-state”) and those registered with “third parties” are combined. In all other tables, independents are reported separately. Party affiliations for the candidates are as follows: Davis (Democrat), Simon (Republican), Camejo (Green), Copeland (Libertarian), and Gulke (American Independent). -1- California 2002 Elections Even though most Californians can state a candidate preference, the majority of likely voters say they are not satisfied with their choices in this gubernatorial election. Indeed, fewer than half of Republicans, Democrats and independent voters are satisfied. Non-Hispanic whites are much less likely than Latinos to say they are satisfied (35% to 53%). A majority of voters across all major regions, and men and women alike, express dissatisfaction with the candidate choices. Fifty-four percent of likely voters are not satisfied; and among these voters, Davis and Simon are in a virtual tie (33% to 31%). Among the 38 percent of voters who are satisfied with the choices, Davis has a large lead over Simon (55% to 31%). This lead can be partially explained by the fact that Democrats (41%) are more likely than Republicans (33%) to be satisfied with the candidate choices. "Would you say that you are satisfied or not satisfied with the choices of candidates in the election for governor on November 5th?" Satisfied Not satisfied Don’t know All Likely Voters 38% 54 8 Democrat 41% 50 9 Likely Voters Republican 33% 58 9 Independent 37% 54 9 Latino 53% 38 9 Voters’ Priorities What do California’s likely voters most want to hear the candidates talk about during the election campaign? Education (17%), the economy (13%), and electricity (11%) top the list. Other issues mentioned by more than 5 percent of likely voters include the state budget, taxes, and the environment. The same three issues—education, the economy, and electricity—topped the list for likely voters in the PPIC Statewide Surveys prior to the March primary. Since then, Californians have become more interested in hearing candidates talk about the state budget (3% to 9%), and a few now mention campaign money and ethics as issues (0% to 4%). Public concerns often noted in our regional surveys—such as traffic, growth, and housing—are rarely mentioned when voters are asked what issues they most want the gubernatorial candidates to discuss. Public safety issues such as crime and terrorism and homeland security are also not among the voters’ chief concerns. Democrats and independent voters are more likely than Republicans to focus on schools as their top issue. Republicans are more likely than Democrats and independent voters to say they want to hear about taxes and the state budget. Regionally, likely voters’ interest in hearing candidates talk about education is highest in Los Angeles (21%) and lowest in the Central Valley (12%). Women are more likely than men (22% to 11%) and Latinos are more likely than non-Hispanic whites (26% to 14%) to name education as the campaign issue they would most like discussed this election year. Similarly, younger voters are more eager than others to want the candidates talk about schools during the campaign (26% for ages 18 to 34, 16% for ages 35 to 54, and 11% for ages 55 and older). -2- California 2002 Elections "Which one issue would you most like to hear the gubernatorial candidate’s talk about before the November 5th election?" Likely Voters Schools/education Jobs and the economy Electricity cost and supply State budget Environment Taxes Campaign money/ethics Immigration Health care Crime and gangs Housing Traffic and transportation Population growth Race relations Terrorism and security Poverty Other Don’t know All Likely Voters 17% 13 11 9 7 6 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 10 7 Party Dem 20% 11 Rep 12% 14 12 9 7 14 94 4 12 44 42 41 22 12 11 21 10 12 12 10 9 69 Ind 18% 14 12 4 8 1 6 1 2 2 2 1 3 3 1 2 12 8 Central Valley 12% 14 12 13 4 6 4 1 2 3 0 1 2 0 1 3 15 7 Region SF Bay Area 16% Los Angeles 21% Other Southern California Latino 15% 26% 18 11 12 7 12 10 12 9 6 10 10 6 9 8 63 6 4 95 4 5 22 0 4 46 3 1 34 4 5 24 4 1 13 1 1 10 3 0 11 1 2 02 0 1 10 1 1 22 8 9 89 4 6 11 11 - 3 - August 2002 California 2002 Elections Candidate Qualifications Recent national scandals involving the corporate world have evidently done little to change Californians’ opinions about what kind of experience makes a candidate most fit for statewide office. Voters are as likely today as they were during the 1998 governor’s race to say they prefer experience in elected office. Today, 44 percent of California’s likely voters believe experience in elected office is a more important qualification for statewide office, while 42 percent think that business experience is more important. There is a stark partisan split over this: 62 percent of Democrats believe that experience in elected office is a more important qualification for statewide office, while 63 percent of Republicans believe experience running a business is more important. Independent voters are about evenly divided in their assessment of the most important qualification for those seeking statewide offices. Among the voters who place a priority on experience in elected office, Davis leads Simon (64% to 15%). Among those who think that experience running a business is more important, Simon leads Davis (49% to 20%), which partly reflects the partisan disparity on the qualifications issue. "People have different ideas about the qualifications they want when they vote for candidate’s for statewide office, such as governor or U.S. Senator. Which of these is most important to you, that the candidate has… " Likely Voters Experience in elected office Experience in running a business All Likely Voters 44% 42 Party Dem Rep 62% 23% 25 63 Region Other Central SF Bay Los Southern Ind Valley Area Angeles California Latino 42% 35% 52% 46% 41% 50% 46 49 35 42 45 41 Neither (volunteered) 5 53 8 5 4 5 52 Both (volunteered) 6 674 6 5 6 66 Don’t know 3 240 5 4 1 31 We also asked which of the major party gubernatorial candidates would do a better job on five issues—education, the economy, electricity, the state budget and taxes, and maintaining high ethical standards in government (i.e., the four top voter issues and a campaign issue for the major party candidates). Likely voters give Davis a large lead over Simon on education (50% to 29%) and on maintaining high ethical standards (43% to 28%), while Simon is favored over Davis on electricity (43% to 34%). Voters are split on whether Davis or Simon would do a better job on the issue of the economy (40% each) and on the state budget and taxes (42% to 39%). Majorities of Democrats believe Davis would do a better job than Simon on education, the economy, the state budget and taxes, maintaining high ethical standards, and electricity. Conversely, majorities of Republicans view Simon as doing a better job than Davis on each of these five issues. Independents see Davis doing a better job than Simon on education and give him a slight edge over Simon on the budget, but they give Simon a slight edge on electricity. While independents choose Davis over Simon on maintaining high ethical standards (40% to 13%), nearly one-third choose neither candidate and 16 percent don’t know. -4- California 2002 Elections Education Gray Davis Bill Simon Other/Neither Don’t know The Economy Gray Davis Bill Simon Other/Neither Don’t know Electricity and energy policy Gray Davis Bill Simon Other/Neither Don’t know State budget and taxes Gray Davis Bill Simon Other/Neither Don’t know Maintaining high ethical standards in government Gray Davis Bill Simon Other/Neither Don’t know "Regardless of your choice for governor, which of these candidates would do a better job on each of these issues…?" Likely Voters All Likely Voters Dem Party Rep Ind Central Valley Region SF Bay Area Los Angeles Other Southern California 50% 29 9 12 70% 11 7 12 24% 56 8 12 53% 18 17 12 35% 42 15 8 61% 15 9 15 52% 26 7 15 50% 35 6 9 40% 40 10 10 65% 15 10 10 12% 72 8 8 36% 35 15 14 21% 57 13 9 47% 30 10 13 46% 35 10 9 39% 46 9 6 34% 43 11 12 54% 22 12 12 12% 70 9 9 28% 36 20 16 24% 55 9 12 40% 34 11 15 36% 35 15 14 32% 50 9 9 42% 39 10 9 64% 17 8 11 16% 69 7 8 41% 32 19 8 26% 58 11 5 52% 28 9 11 48% 30 13 9 38% 46 7 9 43% 28 18 11 67% 8 15 10 16% 58 16 10 40% 13 31 16 31% 46 17 6 48% 15 21 16 48% 23 18 11 39% 34 16 11 Latino 62% 25 6 7 51% 33 6 10 41% 36 5 18 53% 30 9 8 57% 21 11 11 - 5 - August 2002 California 2002 Elections Campaign Awareness: News and Advertising The voters most likely to go to the polls in November are paying a lot of attention to the gubernatorial race this summer: 74 percent say they very closely or fairly closely follow the news about candidates in the 2002 governor’s election. The results are similar across parties, regions, and racial and ethnic groups. By contrast, in a PPIC Statewide Survey one month before the March primary, 56 percent of likely voters said they were very closely or fairly closely following the election. Awareness of paid political commercials is also high: 68 percent of voters say they have noticed television advertising by the candidates for governor in the past month. In all political groups, regions of the state, and demographic groups, commercials by the Davis campaign have made the strongest impression. More than half of likely voters say they have seen Davis ads the most, while 14 percent recall seeing Simon commercials the most in the past month. Davis has a narrow lead (39% to 36%) over Simon among the 54 percent of likely voters who recall seeing Davis’ commercials the most, but a larger lead (47% to 19%) among the 14 percent who recall seeing Simon’s commercials the most. "How closely do you follow news about candidates for the 2002 governor’s election – very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely?" Likely Voters Very closely Fairly closely Not too closely Not at all closely All Likely Voters 22% 52 22 4 Party Dem 20% 52 22 6 Rep 24% 52 20 4 Ind 24% 47 26 3 Central Valley 28% 49 16 7 Region SF Bay Area 23% 53 21 3 Los Angeles 20% 49 26 5 Other Southern California 21% 54 20 5 Latino 21% 55 18 6 "In the past month, have you seen any television advertisements by the candidates for governor? (if yes: "Whose ads have you seen the most?") Likely Voters Yes, Davis Yes, Simon Yes, other No All Likely Voters 54% 14 3 29 Dem 51% 17 3 29 Party Rep 61% 10 2 27 Ind 46% 18 5 31 Central Valley 57% 17 3 23 Region SF Bay Area 56% 14 2 28 Los Angeles 60% 8 3 29 Other Southern California 49% 18 2 31 Latino 49% 14 4 33 -6- California 2002 Elections Proposition 49: Before and After School Programs Initiative Proposition 49 is the citizens’ initiative that would increase state funding for before and after school programs. Fifty-nine percent of all likely voters currently support this proposition, which has been promoted by movie actor and GOP activist Arnold Schwarzenegger. Ironically, a majority of Republicans oppose Proposition 49, while Democrats and independent voters support it. Central Valley voters are divided on this measure, while the majority of voters in the state’s other major regions favor it. Latinos are more supportive than non-Hispanic whites (68% to 55%). Solid majorities in all education and income groups, and among those with and without children, indicate that they would vote yes on Proposition 49. Two in three Californians believe that additional funding for these programs would improve children’s safety, but only 54 percent expect it would raise student test scores. Most Democrats and independent voters expect to see both potential benefits of Proposition 49, while Republicans are more skeptical about the effects of increasing funds for the programs. Latinos are much more likely than non-Hispanic whites to expect improvements in student test scores (73% to 48%), and more often say that Proposition 49 will improve children’s safety (76% to 65%). Proposition 49 is strongly supported among those who believe that increasing funding for before and after school programs will increase student test scores (84% to 10%) and improve children’s safety (77% to 15%). "If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 49, the Before and After School Programs initiative?"* Likely Voters Yes No Don’t know All Likely Voters 59% 31 10 Party Dem 72% 17 11 Rep 39% 51 10 Ind 65% 26 9 Central Valley 44% 46 10 Region SF Bay Area 66% 25 9 Los Angeles 62% 26 12 Other Southern California 58% 34 8 Latino 68% 21 11 "Do you think that the additional funding in Proposition 49 for before and after school programs will or will not…?" Likely Voters Party Region All Likely Voters Dem Rep Other Central SF Bay Los Southern Ind Valley Area Angeles California Latino Raise student test scores? Will 54% 66% 38% 56% 40% 57% 60% 53% 73% Will not 33 19 50 32 48 28 30 32 20 Don’t know 13 15 12 12 12 15 10 15 7 Improve children’s safety? Will 67% 76% 52% 74% 56% 70% 69% 65% 76% Will not 25 16 40 18 34 21 25 26 19 Don’t know 8 8 8 8 10 9 6 9 *see questionnaire for complete text for Proposition 49, the Before and After School Programs initiative (question #11). 5 - 7 - August 2002 California 2002 Elections Proposition 52: The Election Day Registration, Voter Fraud Penalties Initiative Proposition 52 is a citizens’ initiative that would allow eligible California adults to register to vote on election day. A slim majority of likely voters support this ballot measure, and nearly four in 10 oppose it at this early stage. While Proposition 52 has support from 56 percent of Democrats and 58 percent of independent voters, only 43 percent of Republicans support it. Support for the initiative is roughly equal among non-Hispanic whites (52%) and Latinos (49%). Across regions, Proposition 52 gets the most support from likely voters in Los Angeles (61%) and the least from Central Valley voters (44%). Few California voters think that voter turnout (8%) or voter fraud (12%) will increase a lot if Proposition 52 passes; majorities think there will be little or no effect. It is interesting that 53 percent of unregistered adults support the same-day registration measure and 39 percent oppose it, and 21 percent believe voter turnout in elections will increase a lot if Proposition 52 passes. Support for Proposition 52 is higher among those voters who think that the same-day voter registration initiative will increase voter turnout a lot (58% to 39%) or somewhat (67% to 26%) than among those who expect very little (53% to 42%) or no effect (40% to 53%) on increasing voter turnout. Proposition 52 is also more popular among those who expect that it would only increase voter fraud a little (62% to 29%) or not at all (64% to 31%) than among those who expect Proposition 52 to have a lot (13% to 84%) or somewhat (43% to 49%) of an effect on increasing voter fraud. "If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 52, the Election Day Registration, Voter Fraud Penalties initiative?"* Likely Voters Party Region All Likely Voters Dem Rep Other Central SF Bay Los Southern Ind Valley Area Angeles California Latino Yes 52% 56% 43% 58% 44% 49% 61% 49% 49% No 39 33 48 33 44 40 32 41 39 Don’t know 9 11 9 9 12 11 7 10 12 *see questionnaire for current text for Proposition 52, the Election Day Voter Registration, Voter Fraud Penalties initiative (question #14). "If Prop 52 passes, do you think it would…?" (Likely Voters) A lot Somewhat A little Not at all Don’t know Increase voter turnout 8% 29 26 31 6 Increase voter fraud 12% 16 21 43 8 -8- September 11th: One Year Later As September 11th approaches, most Californians plan to commemorate, but not to be daunted by, the first anniversary of the terrorist attacks. More than three-quarters expect to observe the occasion by doing something special—such as taking a moment of silent prayer, gathering with friends, or attending a memorial service—in memory of the victims. Three in four Californians also expect to display the flag or other American symbols on that day. Nevertheless, most of them (74%) plan to treat September 11th like any other day, not taking special precautions against terrorist attacks, such as not flying on airplanes or avoiding large cities or crowds. San Francisco Bay Area residents are more likely than people in other regions of the state to say that they will treat September 11th like any other day and less likely to say they plan some patriotic display that day. Latinos are much more likely than non-Hispanic whites to say that they expect to take precautions against terrorist attacks on September 11th (46% to 16%) and that they plan to do something special in memory of the victims (85% to 72%). Both are equally likely to say that they will display the flag on that day. While similar percentages of Democrats and Republicans plan to treat the day like any other day and to commemorate the victims, Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to plan on displaying patriotic symbols (89% to 69%). Older, higher income, and college-educated adults are more likely to plan to go ahead with their normal routines and less likely to memorialize the victims on September 11th . Do you expect to do anything special in memory of the victims of September 11th— such as take a moment of silent prayer, gather with friends, or attend a memorial service? Yes No Don’t know Do you expect to display the flag or other American symbols on September 11th? Yes No Don’t know Thinking ahead to the anniversary of September 11th terrorist attacks, do you plan to…? Treat the day as any other day Take precautions against terrorist attacks Don’t know All Central Adults Valley 77% 22 1 78% 20 2 75% 23 2 79% 19 2 74% 25 1 73% 26 1 Region SF Bay Area Los Angeles Other Southern California 72% 25 3 78% 21 1 79% 20 1 64% 35 1 76% 22 2 79% 19 2 81% 17 2 70% 28 2 72% 26 2 Latino 85% 13 2 79% 19 2 52% 46 2 -9- September 11th: One Year Later Terrorism and Security in California Nearly a year after the September 11th attacks, 64 percent of Californians still see terrorism and security as somewhat of a problem (41%) or a big problem (23%) in California. Overall, the percentage who see terrorism and security as either somewhat of or a big problem is down from January 2002 (69%) and December 2001 (73%). "How much of a problem is terrorism and security in California today?" Big problem Somewhat of a problem Not much of a problem Don’t know All Central Adults Valley 23% 22% 41 38 34 38 22 Region SF Bay Los Area Angeles Other Southern California 17% 29% 24% 41 41 41 38 27 33 43 2 Latino 38% 36 25 1 When asked if they are worried that they or someone in their family will be the victim of a terrorist attack, 65 percent of Californians say that they are either not too worried (38%) or not at all worried (27%). This concern over the direct impact of a terrorist attack has not changed much since January 2002 when 64 percent, or December 2001 when 62 percent, of the state’s residents said that they were not too worried or not at all worried. "How worried are you that you or someone in your family will be the victim of a terrorist attack?" Very worried Somewhat worried Not too worried Not at all worried All Central Adults Valley 12% 13% 23 20 38 38 27 29 Region SF Bay Los Area Angeles Other Southern California 10% 18% 9% 21 26 26 42 32 40 27 24 25 Latino 33% 29 25 13 Latinos are much more likely than non-Hispanic whites to see terrorism and security in California today as a big problem (38% to 18%) and to be very worried that they or someone in their family will be the victim of a terrorist attack (33% to 4%). Across regions, Los Angeles residents are the most likely to see terrorism and security as either somewhat of or a big problem (70%). Los Angeles residents are also more likely than people in other regions to be either somewhat or very worried (44%) about a potential direct terrorist attack on themselves or their families. Californians with college educations are less likely than those with high school degrees or less education to see terrorism and security as somewhat of or a big problem (61% to 72%), and also less likely to worry about being a victim (24% to 52%). Women are more likely than men to see this as a problem in California (69% to 59%), and more likely to be worried (41% to 30%). - 10 - September 11th: One Year Later Potential Terrorist Targets in California What potential terrorist targets worry Californians the most? Overall, they are most likely to worry about power plants and water supplies (37%) and airports and airplanes (17%). Fewer Californians mention high-rise buildings and downtown areas (10%) and roads, bridges, and tunnels (9%). Nationally, 25 percent of Americans identify airplanes and airports as the terrorist target that worries them the most. However, concerns vary across California's regions: Los Angeles residents are the most likely to be worried about airports and airplanes (21%), while San Francisco Bay Area residents are the most likely by far to say that their chief concerns are roads, bridges, and tunnels (21%). Other Southern California residents are the most likely to worry about power plants and water supplies (43%). Latinos are much more likely than non-Hispanic whites to be most concerned about airports and airplanes (24% to 13%). "What do you worry most about in terms of terrorist targets in California?" Power plants and water supplies Airports and airplanes High rise buildings and downtown areas Roads, bridges, and tunnels Boats and seaports Buses and trains All of the above (volunteered) Something else (specify) Don’t know All Central Adults Valley 37% 40% 17 17 10 8 9 10 42 22 44 11 10 67 Region SF Bay Los Area Angeles Other Southern California 31% 32% 43% 13 21 17 10 13 8 21 5 3 35 6 23 2 43 5 9 13 11 75 5 Latino 34% 24 12 6 3 3 4 10 4 - 11 - August 2002 September 11th: One Year Later Terrorism Readiness On the eve of the anniversary of the September 11th terrorist attacks, the majority of Californians express confidence in the terrorism readiness of key national and local agencies. Fiftyfive percent are somewhat or very confident in the abilities of U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies to prevent future terrorist attacks in which large numbers of Americans are killed. National public opinion is similar: In June 2002, a Newsweek Poll found that 58 percent of Americans shared this confidence in U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies. Californians express even greater confidence in their local public agencies’ terrorism readiness: 74 percent have some or a great deal of confidence in their local police department, 69 percent in their public health agencies, and a huge 90 percent in their local fire department’s readiness to respond to the threat of terrorist attacks. How confident are you that U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies will be able to prevent future terrorist attacks? Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident Don’t know How much confidence do you have in your local police department in terms of providing security in response to the threat of terrorist attacks? A great deal Some Very little/None Don’t know How much confidence do you have in your local fire department in terms of their readiness to respond? A great deal Some Very little/None Don’t know How much confidence do you have in your local public health agencies in terms of their readiness to respond? A great deal Some Very little/None Don’t know All Adults Central Valley Region SF Bay Los Area Angeles Other Southern California Latino 10% 45 30 14 1 11% 49 24 13 3 6% 42 33 18 1 13% 42 32 12 1 11% 48 30 11 0 18% 42 29 10 1 30% 44 24 2 30% 41 28 1 27% 46 23 4 32% 45 22 1 31% 45 21 3 34% 42 23 1 55% 35 7 3 56% 32 10 2 50% 39 9 2 58% 35 6 1 57% 35 5 3 57% 34 9 0 23% 46 26 5 25% 43 26 6 21% 49 25 5 24% 45 27 4 24% 48 22 6 30% 41 28 1 - 12 - September 11th: One Year Later Approval Ratings on Terrorism and Security A majority of Californians rate their city’s response to the threat of terrorist attacks in the aftermath of September 11th as either excellent (14%) or good (38%). In all of the state’s major regions and across all demographic groupings, pluralities give city government excellent or good ratings on this measure. Californians also tend to think highly of the job that the top national and state leaders are doing on the issue of terrorism and security. Overall, 70 percent of Californians give President Bush a strong approval rating on his handling of terrorism and security issues. Residents across the state rate the president highly, regardless of geographic location, age, income, and education. However, there are significant differences in approval ratings between Republicans (88%) and Democrats (57%) and those who label themselves as conservative (83%) and those who call themselves liberal (53%). Moreover, Bush’s approval rating on these issues has declined for the first time since September 11th. In November 2001, 83 percent of Californians approved of the way Bush was handling terrorism and security issues, and this high rating continued through December 2001 (85%) and January 2002 (85%). Governor Davis also enjoys relatively high job approval ratings on terrorism and security issues in California. Overall, 62 percent of Californians approve of the job that he is doing on these issues. Like the president's ratings, the governor’s approval rating on terrorism has slipped, though more modestly, from January 2002 (68%), and only back to the level first highlighted in November 2001 (62%). Today, Davis continues to get majority support in this area across the state and among all major demographic groupings. The governor’s ratings are also similar to the president’s in that there is a large partisan gap (69 percent of Democrats support him on terrorism and security, compared to 50 percent of Republicans). Latinos are much more likely to support Davis’s work on terrorism and security than non-Hispanic whites (72% to 58%). Do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling the issue of terrorism and security? Approve Disapprove Don’t know Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Davis is handling the issue of terrorism and security in California? Approve Disapprove Don’t know All Adults Party Registration Democrat Republican Independent Latino 70% 26 4 57% 38 5 88% 10 2 63% 33 4 75% 21 4 62% 22 16 69% 16 15 50% 34 16 61% 21 18 72% 19 9 - 13 - August 2002 September 11th: One Year Later National Terrorism and Security Issues Should the United States establish a cabinet-level department of Homeland Security? A majority of Californians (60%) think so. Support for the proposed department is lower in California than support nationally: 73 percent of all Americans in the most recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll on the subject said that the department should be created. Nevertheless, majorities of Californians across all demographic categories and major geographic regions support the new department. Only in the San Francisco Bay Area are residents nearly divided in their support for the department (50% to 43%). Latinos (73%) are particularly supportive of the proposal, as are non-native citizens (66%) and non-citizens (77%). "Do you think that the U.S. Congress should or should not pass legislation to create a new cabinet department of Homeland Security?" Should Should not Don’t know All Adults 60% 32 8 Party Registration Democrat 55% 38 7 Republican 65% 26 9 Independent 58% 35 7 Latino 73% 21 6 Despite overall support for a new cabinet-level office of homeland security, Californians tend to be more concerned that the government will enact anti-terrorism laws that excessively restrict the civil liberties of the average person (51%) than that the government will fail to enact tough new antiterrorism laws (41%). On this fundamental trade-off in the “War on Terrorism,” California opinion remains steady: In January 2002, 51 percent of Californians were more concerned about too many new laws and 37 percent with too few. Since September 2001, national opinion has moved closer to Californians’: The Pew Research Center reports that in June 2002, Americans were more concerned about the civil liberties of average people (49%) than about enacting too few tough laws (35%). Concern about civil liberties in the face of new anti-terrorism laws remains a partisan issue: Democrats are much more concerned than Republicans that tough new laws will excessively restrict civil liberties (56% to 38%). Older and more conservative Californians also continue to worry less about hypothetical reductions in civil liberties than do their younger and more liberal counterparts. One change from January 2002 is that, today, San Francisco Bay Area residents are much more likely than residents in the state’s other major regions to think that new anti-terrorism laws will excessively restrict civil liberties (62% to 31%). "In general, which concerns you more right now, that…?" Party Registration Government will fail to enact strong anti-terrorism laws Government will enact new anti-terrorism laws that excessively restrict the average person’s civil liberties Don’t know All Adults Democrat Republican Independent Latino 41% 36% 53% 35% 40% 51 56 38 8 89 58 53 77 - 14 - Economic and Political Trends Overall Outlook Residents today are much less optimistic about California’s economy and the direction of the state than they were just six months ago. Today, only 39 percent of Californians think that good times lie ahead, while 51 percent expect the financial environment will be bad. Nearly half (48%) believe that the state is headed in the wrong direction. The boost in optimism seen earlier in the new year seems to have disappeared; the overall outlook is now similar to that found during the height of the electricity crisis and in the months following the September 11th terrorist attacks. Almost six in ten residents (56%) in the San Francisco Bay Area expect bad economic times in the next twelve months, as compared to roughly half of residents living in other parts of the state. Central Valley residents (57%) are more likely than those living in the San Francisco Bay Area (50%), Los Angeles (43%), and Other Southern California (45%) to say that the state is headed in the wrong direction. Consistent with earlier trends, Latinos are much more likely than non-Hispanic whites to expect good times in the next twelve months (52% to 35%), and to say that the state is headed in the right direction (58% to 39%). The percentage of Californians who are pessimistic about the state’s overall direction and economic future increases with education and income. For example, residents with incomes of $40,000 per year or higher (53%) are more likely than those earning less than $40,000 per year (48%) to say that they expect bad financial times in the next twelve months. Californians making more than $40,000 per year (51%) are also more likely than those making less than $40,000 per year (42%) to say that the state is headed in the wrong direction. "Do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?" Good times Bad times Don’t know Sep 99 72% 23 5 Dec 99 76% 19 5 Feb 00 78% 15 7 Aug 00 72% 21 7 All Adults Jan May 01 01 Jul 01 51% 38% 41% 38 56 50 11 6 9 Nov 01 32% 59 9 Dec 01 37% 56 7 Jan 02 48% 46 6 Feb 02 46% 47 7 Aug 02 39% 51 10 "Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?" Right direction Wrong direction Don’t know Dec 98 63% Sep 99 61% Dec 99 62% Feb 00 65% Aug 00 62% All Adults Jan May 01 01 Jul 01 62% 44% 44% Nov 01 60% Dec 01 58% Jan 02 59% Feb 02 56% Aug 02 44% 28 34 31 27 30 29 48 47 29 33 32 36 48 9 5 7 8 8 9 8 9 11 9 9 8 8 - 15 - Economic and Political Trends Regional Economy More than half of Californians (54%) believe that their region is in an economic recession. This percentage is virtually the same as in February (55%); however, there has been a 4-point increase in the percentage of residents who believe their region is now in a serious recession (12% to 16%). San Francisco Bay Area residents have the most negative perceptions of their regional economy. Three in four Bay Area residents (73%) say their region is in a recession, as compared to about half of the adults living in the Central Valley (49%), Los Angeles (53%), and Other Southern California (45%). One in four San Francisco Bay Area residents believes his/her region is in a serious recession—a 7 percent increase since February (19% to 26%). Latinos and non-Hispanic whites have similar opinions about the state of their regional economies. While a majority in all age groups believe that their regional economy is in a recession, residents 55 and older (21%) and those between 35 and 54 years old (18%) are much more likely than younger residents (12%) to characterize their regional recession as serious. Households earning less than $40,000 per year are more likely to report that their region is in a recession (58%) than households making more than $40,000 per year (53%). There are no significant differences in perceptions across party, gender, or education groups. "Would you say that your region is in an economic recession or not?" (if yes: "Do you think it is in a serious, a moderate, or a mild recession?") August 2002 Would you say that your region is in an economic recession, or not? Yes, serious recession Yes, moderate recession Yes, mild recession No Don’t know February 2002 Would you say that your region is in an economic recession, or not? Yes, serious recession Yes, moderate recession Yes, mild recession No Don’t know All Adults Central Valley 16% 25 13 43 3 13% 20 16 45 6 All Adults Central Valley 12% 27 16 42 3 9% 22 16 47 6 Region SF Bay Area Los Angeles 26% 35 12 25 2 14% 23 16 44 3 Region SF Bay Area Los Angeles 19% 36 16 28 1 11% 29 14 42 4 Other Southern California 14% 22 9 52 3 Other Southern California 8% 23 18 47 4 Latino 14% 23 15 42 6 Latino 12% 24 16 44 4 - 16 - Economic and Political Trends Stock Market More than half of California residents (55%) say their financial situation has suffered because of a declining stock market. While stockholders are the most likely to say they have been hurt by a declining market, there has been a considerable spillover effect for Californians who do not own stocks: 72 percent of those who own stocks and 33 percent of those who do not own stocks say their financial situation has suffered. Seven in ten Bay Area residents say their financial situation has deteriorated as a result of a falling market, a far greater percentage than those living in other parts of the state, including the Central Valley (43%), Los Angeles (56%) and Other Southern California (53%). This regional gap may reflect the fact that a higher percentage of Bay Area residents (70%) own stocks compared to residents in the Central Valley (53%), Los Angeles (53%), and Other Southern California (56%). Overall, 58 percent of Californians own stocks or mutual funds that include stocks. There is further evidence in our survey that the stock market decline has affected other demographic groups than those heavily invested in stocks. While only 33 percent of Latinos own stocks, compared to 67 percent of non-Hispanic whites, nearly one-half of Latinos say they have suffered financially because of the stock market decline, as compared to 58 percent of non-Hispanic whites. Older residents are more likely to say their financial situation has suffered: 34 percent of residents 55 and older and 36 percent of those between 35 and 54 years old say they have suffered a lot due to the stock market decline, as compared to only 17 percent of respondents under 35 years of age. Almost three-quarters of those residents whose annual income is over $80,000 say that they have suffered because of the market decline, as compared to 54 percent of residents with incomes between $40,000 and $79,999 and 44 percent of those who earn less than $40,000. "Thinking about the last twelve months, has your financial situation suffered because of the stock market decline?" (if yes: "Has your financial situation suffered a lot or a little?") Yes, a lot Yes, a little No Don’t know All Adults 29% 26 43 2 Central Valley 20% 23 56 1 Region SF Bay Area 37% 32 30 1 Los Angeles 28% 28 43 1 Other Southern California 29% 24 45 2 Latino 23% 26 50 1 Stockowners Only Yes, a lot Yes, a little No Don’t know All Adults 40% 32 27 1 Central Valley 30% 32 38 0 Region SF Bay Area 45% 34 20 1 Los Angeles 38% 35 26 1 Other Southern California 43% 29 27 1 Latino 34% 26 39 1 - 17 - August 2002 Economic and Political Trends Approval Ratings Sixty-four percent of Californians approve of President Bush’s performance in office. The president's approval rating hasn't changed over the past two months, and it represents a marked decline from his ratings in the immediate aftermath of September 11th. Californians’ approval of Bush is consistent with his national ratings: 65 percent approve of his job performance, according to an August 2002 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. Approval of President Bush is highest among Republicans: 88 percent of Republicans think he's doing a good job, compared to 47 percent of Democrats and 55 percent of independents. Bush has higher support among Latinos today (72%) than he did in June (64%). When asked to assess President Bush’s handling of the issues of financial fraud and accounting irregularities by large business corporations, only 54 percent of Californians approved of his performance. Interestingly, the largest gap between the president’s overall approval rating and approval of his handling of the fiscal irregularities is among Republicans: 72 percent of Republicans approve of Bush’s handling of the business problem, while 88 percent approve of his overall job performance. Fifty-one percent of California adults approve of Governor Davis. This is a higher approval rating than the 39 percent he received in June and similar to his ratings last February. Today, 65 percent of the governor’s fellow Democrats approve of his performance in office, compared to one in two independent voters and one in four Republicans. Nearly seven in 10 Latinos express approval of the governor. Among likely voters, 43 percent approve and 52 percent disapprove of his performance in office, which is similar to his ratings six months ago. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling his job as president of the United States? Approve Disapprove Don’t know Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Gray Davis is handling his job as governor of California? Approve Disapprove Don’t know All Adults 64% 32 4 51% 42 7 Party Registration Democrat Republican Independent Latino 47% 48 5 65% 28 7 88% 10 2 23% 71 6 55% 41 4 72% 24 4 49% 44 7 69% 25 6 (All Adults) Percent Approve President Bush Governor Davis Sept 00 -- 66% Oct 00 -- 60% Jan 01 -- 62% May 01 57% 46 Jul 01 47% 44 Sept 01 57% 40 Nov 01 80% 54 Dec 01 79% 51 Jan 02 80% 52 Feb 02 76% 51 June 02 65% 39 Aug 02 64% 51 - 18 - Survey Methodology The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance in research and writing from Jon Cohen, survey research manager; Dorie Apollonio and Lisa Cole, survey research associates; and Caroline Burnett, survey intern. The findings of this survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,014 California adult residents interviewed between August 14 and August 21, 2002. Interviewing took place on weekday nights and weekend days, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted telephone numbers were called. All telephone exchanges in California were eligible for calling. Telephone numbers in the survey sample were called up to ten times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing by using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Each interview took an average of 18 minutes to complete. Interviewing was conducted in English or Spanish. Casa Hispana translated the survey into Spanish. We used recent U.S. Census and state figures to compare the demographic characteristics of the survey sample with characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the census and state figures. The survey data in this report were statistically weighted to account for any demographic differences. The sampling error for the total sample of 2,014 adults is +/- 2 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 2 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger. The sampling error for the 1,549 registered voters is +/- 2.5 percent. The sampling error for the 993 likely voters is +/- 3 percent. Sampling error is just one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. Throughout the report, we refer to four geographic regions. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “SF Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, and “Other Southern California” includes the mostly suburban regions of Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. These four regions were chosen for analysis because they are the major population centers of the state, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population; moreover, the growth of the Central Valley and “Other Southern California” regions have given them increasing political significance. We present specific results for Latinos because they account for about 28 percent of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest growing voter groups. The sample sizes for the African American and Asian subgroups are not large enough for separate statistical analysis. We do contrast the opinions of registered Democrats, Republicans, and independents. The “independents” category includes those who are registered to vote as “decline to state.” In some cases, we compare PPIC Statewide Survey responses to responses recorded in national surveys conducted by Newsweek in June 2002, ABC News/ Washington Post in July 2002, Fox News Opinion Dynamics Poll in June 2002, CNN/USA Today/Gallup in June and August 2002, and Pew Research Center in June 2002. We used earlier PPIC Statewide Surveys to analyze trends over time in California. - 19 - PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT AUGUST 14 – AUGUST 21, 2002 2,014 CALIFORNIA ADULTS RESIDENTS; ENGLISH AND SPANISH MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 2% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE [Responses recorded for questions 1-16 and for question 43 are from likely voters only. All other responses are from all adults.] 1. I have a few questions about the November 5th general election. If the election for governor were held today, would you vote for Gray Davis (the Democrat), Bill Simon (the Republican), Gary David Copeland (the Libertarian), Reinhold Gulke (the American Independent), Peter Miguel Camejo (the Green Party), or someone else? (rotate names) 41% Gray Davis, the Democrat 30 Bill Simon, the Republican 4 Peter Miguel Camejo, the Green 4 Gary David Copeland, the Libertarian 1 Reinhold Gulke, the American Independent 2 someone else (specify) 18 don’t know 2. Would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with the choices of candidates in the election for governor on November 5th? 38% satisfied 54 not satisfied 8 don’t know 3. Which one issue would you most like to hear the gubernatorial candidates talk about before the November 5th election? 17% schools, education 13 jobs, the economy 11 electricity cost and supply 9 state budget 7 environment 6 taxes 4 campaign money and ethics 3 immigration 3 health care 3 crime and gangs 2 housing 1 traffic and transportation 1 population growth 1 race relations 1 terrorism and security 1 poverty 10 other 7 don’t know Regardless of your choice for governor, which of these candidates would do a better job on each of these issues— Gray Davis or Bill Simon? (rotate questions 4 through 8) 4. How about education? 50% Gray Davis 29 Bill Simon 9 other/ neither (volunteered) 12 don’t know 5. How about the economy? 40% Gray Davis 40 Bill Simon 10 other/ neither (volunteered) 10 don’t know 6. How about electricity and energy policy? 34% Gray Davis 43 Bill Simon 11 other/ neither (volunteered) 12 don’t know 7. How about the state budget and taxes? 42% Gray Davis 39 Bill Simon 10 other/ neither (volunteered) 9 don’t know 8. How about maintaining high ethical standards in government? 43% Gray Davis 28 Bill Simon 18 other/ neither (volunteered) 11 don’t know 9. How closely do you follow news about candidates for the 2002 governor’s election—very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 22% very closely 52 fairly closely 22 not too closely 4 not at all closely 10. In the past month, have you seen any television advertisements by the candidates for governor? (if yes: Whose ads have you seen the most?) 54% yes, Gray Davis 14 yes, Bill Simon 3 yes, other answer (specify) 29 no - 21 - 11. Also on the November ballot is Proposition 49, the “Before and After School Programs" initiative.” Proposition 49 increases state grant funds available for before and after school programs, providing tutoring, homework assistance, and educational enrichment. It requires that, beginning in 2004-05, new grants will not be taken from the education funds guaranteed under Proposition 98. The fiscal impact of the measure is projected to be additional annual state costs for before and after school programs of up to $455 million, beginning in 200405. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 49? 59% yes 31 no 10 don’t know 12. Do you think that the additional funding in Proposition 49 for before and after school programs will or will not raise student test scores? 54% will 33 will not 13 don’t know 13. Do you think that the additional funding in Proposition 49 for before and after school programs will or will not improve children’s safety from crime? 67% will 25 will not 8 don’t know 14. Proposition 52 on the November 2002 ballot, the “Election Day Voter Registration, Voter Fraud Penalties" initiative, allows legally eligible persons to register to vote on election day. It increases criminal penalties for voter and voter registration fraud and criminalizes conspiracy to commit voter fraud. The fiscal impact is projected to be annual state costs of about $6 million to fund counties for election day voter registration activities. There are no anticipated net county costs, minor state administrative costs, and unknown, but probably minor, state costs to enforce new election fraud offense. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 52? 52% yes 39 no 9 don’t know 15. If Proposition 52 passes, do you think that the number of Californians voting in elections is likely to increase a lot, somewhat, a little, or not at all? 8% a lot 29 somewhat 26 a little 31 not at all 6 don’t know 16. If Proposition 52 passes, do you think that the amount of voter fraud in California elections is likely to increase a lot, somewhat, a little, or not at all? 12% a lot 16 somewhat 21 a little 43 not at all 8 don’t know 17. Some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote? (if yes: Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or as an independent?) 35% yes, Democrat (skip to q.19) 26 yes, Republican (skip to q.20) 4 yes, other party (skip to q.21) 12 yes, independent (ask q.18) 19 no, not registered (ask q.18) 3 don’t know (ask q.18) 18. (if independent, not registered, don’t know, or refuse on q.17) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican party or Democratic party? 27% Republican party (skip to q.21) 46 Democratic party (skip to q.21) 20 neither (volunteered) (skip to q.21) 8 don’t know (skip to q.21) 19. (if Democrat on q.17) Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 48% strong (skip to q.21) 49 not very strong (skip to q.21) 3 don’t know (skip to q.21) 20. (if Republican on q.17) Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 51% strong 46 not very strong 2 don’t know 21. On another topic, do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 44% right direction 48 wrong direction 8 don’t know 22. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 39% good times 51 bad times 10 don’t know - 22 - 23. On another topic, people have different ideas about the government in Washington. These ideas don’t refer to Democrats or Republicans in particular, but just to government in general. We want to see how you feel about these ideas. How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right—just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time? 7% just about always 30 most of the time 58 only some of the time 4 none of the time (volunteered) 1 don’t know 24. On another topic, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling his job as president of the United States? 64% approve 32 disapprove 4 don’t know 25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling the issue of terrorism and security? 70% approve 26 disapprove 4 don’t know 26. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling the issues of financial fraud and accounting irregularities by large business corporations? 54% approve 37 disapprove 9 don’t know 27. People have different ideas about the state government in Sacramento. How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Sacramento to do what is right—just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time? 5% just about always 32 most of the time 57 only some of the time 4 none of the time (volunteered) 2 don’t know 28. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Gray Davis is handling his job as governor of California? 51% approve 42 disapprove 7 don’t know 29. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Davis is handling the issue of terrorism and security in California? 62% approve 22 disapprove 16 don’t know 30. Changing topics, would you say that your region is in an economic recession or not? (if yes: Do you think it is in a serious, a moderate, or a mild recession?) 16% yes, serious recession 25 yes, moderate recession 13 yes, mild recession 43 no 3 don’t know 31. Do you own any shares of individual stocks or mutual funds that include stocks, including money that is in retirement accounts? 58% yes 41 no 1 don’t know 32. Thinking of the past twelve months, has your financial situation suffered because of the stock market decline? (if yes: Has your financial situation suffered a lot or a little?) 29% yes, a lot 26 yes, a little 43 no 2 don’t know 33. On another topic, would you consider yourself to be politically very liberal, somewhat liberal, middleof-the-road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative? 10% very liberal 21 somewhat liberal 30 middle-of-the-road 26 somewhat conservative 11 very conservative 2 don’t know 34. Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics—a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 19% great deal 44 fair amount 31 only a little 5 none 35. How often would you say you vote—always, nearly always, part of the time, seldom, or never? 49% always 22 nearly always 12 part of the time 6 seldom 11 never - 23 - August 2002 The next set of questions is about some of your activities in the past year. Please tell me if you have or have not done any of the following in the past 12 months. (rotate questions 36 to 42) 36. Have you written or e-mailed a local, state, or federal elected official? 30% yes 70 no 37. Have you attended a political rally or speech? 16% yes 84 no 38. Have you attended a meeting on local or school affairs? 40% yes 60 no 39. Have you signed a petition, such as the signatures gathered for local or state initiatives? 41% yes 59 no 40. Have you worked for a political party, candidate, or initiative campaign? 7% yes 93 no 41. Have you given money to a political party, candidate, or initiative campaign? 21% yes 79 no 42. Have you been a member of any group that is working toward better government or political reform? 15% yes 85 no 43. (Likely voters only) People have different ideas about the qualifications they want when they vote for candidates for statewide office, such as governor or U.S. senator. Which of these is most important to you—(a) that the candidate has experience in elected office, or (b) that the candidate has experience running a business? (rotate a and b) 44% experience in elected office 42 experience running a business 5 neither (volunteered) 6 both (volunteered) 3 don’t know 44. On another topic, do you think that the U.S. Congress should or should not pass legislation to create a new cabinet department of Homeland Security? 60% should 32 should not 8 don’t know 45. In general, which concerns you more right now— that the government will fail to enact strong antiterrorism laws, or that the government will enact new anti-terrorism laws that excessively restrict the average person’s civil liberties? 41% government will fail to enact strong antiterrorism laws 51 laws will excessively restrict the average person’s civil liberties 8 don’t know 46. How confident are you that U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies will be able to prevent future terrorist attacks in the United States in which large numbers of Americans are killed— very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? 10% very confident 45 somewhat confident 30 not too confident 14 not at all confident 1 don’t know 47. How much of a problem is terrorism and security in California today? Is it a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem? 23% big problem 41 somewhat of a problem 34 not much of a problem 2 don’t know 48. What do you worry most about in terms of terrorist targets in California—airports and airplanes; boats and seaports; buses and trains; high rise buildings and downtown areas; roads, bridges, and tunnels; power plants and water supplies; or something else? (rotate choices) 37% power plants and water supplies 17 airports and airplanes 10 high rise buildings and downtown areas 9 roads, bridges, and tunnels 4 boats and seaports 2 buses and trains 11 something else (specify) 4 all of the above 6 don’t know - 24 - 49. How worried are you that you or someone in your family will be the victim of a terrorist attack—very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not at all worried? 12% very worried 23 somewhat worried 38 not too worried 27 not at all worried 50. Overall, how would you rate your city government’s response to the threat of terrorist attacks since September 11th—excellent, good, fair, or poor? 14% excellent 38 good 29 fair 9 poor 3 not applicable, don’t live in a city 7 don’t know 51. How much confidence do you have in your local police department in terms of providing security in response to the threat of terrorist attacks—a great deal, some, very little, or none? 30% a great deal 44 some 16 very little 8 none 2 don’t know 52. How much confidence do you have in your local fire department in terms of their readiness to respond to the threat of terrorist attacks—a great deal, some, very little, or none? 55% a great deal 35 some 6 very little 1 none 3 don’t know 53. How much confidence do you have in your local public health agencies in terms of their readiness to respond to the threat of terrorist attacks—a great deal, some, very little, or none? 23% a great deal 46 some 20 very little 6 none 5 don’t know 54. Suppose that your local government said it needed to raise the sales tax to increase funding for police, fire, and public health agencies as part of an effort to increase terrorism readiness. Would you favor or oppose a higher sales tax for this purpose? 52% favor 44 oppose 4 don’t know 55. As a result of September 11th, would you say the residents of your local area have grown closer together, have the residents grown further apart, or has there been no change? 36% residents have grown closer together 3 residents have grown further apart 59 there has been no change 2 don’t know 56. Thinking ahead to the anniversary of the September 11th terrorist attacks, do you plan to treat that day as any other day, or do you plan to take precautions against terrorist attacks, such as not fly on airplanes or avoid large cities or crowds? 74% treat as any other day 25 take precautions 1 don’t know 57. Do you expect to do anything special in memory of the victims of September 11th—such as take a moment of silent prayer, gather with friends, or attend a memorial service? 77% yes 22 no 1 don’t know 58. Do you expect to display the flag or other American symbols on September 11th? 75% yes 23 no 2 don’t know [59-70: demographic questions] - 25 - August 2002 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Advisory Committee Mary Bitterman President The James Irvine Foundation Angela Blackwell President Policy Link Paul Brest President The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Mollyann Brodie Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley Matt Fong Chairman Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation Advisory Committee William Hauck President California Business Roundtable Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Monica Lozano President and Chief Operating Officer La Opinión Donna Lucas President NCG Porter Novelli Max Neiman Director Center for Social and Behavioral Research University of California, Riverside Dan Rosenheim News Director KPIX-TV Richard Schlosberg President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Carol Stogsdill President Stogsdill Consulting Cathy Taylor Vice President and Editorial Commentary Director Orange County Register Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center - 26 -" } ["___content":protected]=> string(102) "

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" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(110) "https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-august-2002/s_802mbs/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(8174) ["ID"]=> int(8174) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:35:29" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(3311) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(8) "S 802MBS" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(8) "s_802mbs" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(12) "S_802MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "277144" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(78717) "PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY AUGUST 2002 Public Policy Institute of California Californians and Their Government ○○○○○ Mark Baldassare Senior Fellow & Survey Director The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) is a private operating foundation established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. The Institute is dedicated to improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. PPIC’s research agenda focuses on three program areas: population, economy, and governance and public finance. Studies within these programs are examining the underlying forces shaping California’s future, cutting across a wide range of public policy concerns, including education, health care, immigration, income distribution, welfare, urban growth, and state and local finance. PPIC was created because three concerned citizens – William R. Hewlett, Roger W. Heyns, and Arjay Miller – recognized the need for linking objective research to the realities of California public policy. Their goal was to help the state’s leaders better understand the intricacies and implications of contemporary issues and make informed public policy decisions when confronted with challenges in the future. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or state and federal legislation nor does it endorse or support any political parties or candidates for public office. David W. Lyon is founding President and Chief Executive Officer of PPIC. Raymond L. Watson is Chairman of the Board of Directors. Public Policy Institute of California 500 Washington Street, Suite 800 • San Francisco, California 94111 Telephone: (415) 291-4400 • Fax: (415) 291-4401 info@ppic.org • www.ppic.org Preface The PPIC Statewide Survey series is designed to provide policymakers, the media, and the general public with objective, advocacy-free information on the perceptions, opinions, and public policy preferences of California residents. Begun in April 1998, the survey series has generated a database that includes the responses of over 54,000 Californians. The current survey is the tenth in our Californians and Their Government series, which will be conducted on a periodic basis throughout the 2002 election cycle. The series is focusing on the social, economic, and political trends and public policy preferences that underlie ballot choices in statewide races and citizens’ initiatives. This report presents the responses of 2,014 adult residents throughout the state on a wide range of issues: • The California election in 2002, including likely voter preferences in the governor’s race, satisfaction with the candidate choices, voters’ attention to news and political advertising, and support for state propositions on the November ballot. • Californians’ attitudes toward the September 11th terrorist attacks and homeland security—including concerns about the threat of terrorism, perception of the problem of terrorism in California today, attitudes toward the local, state, and federal governments’ response to the threat of terrorism, and confidence in local government’s ability to respond to homeland security issues—and personal plans for the one-year anniversary of September 11th. • Economic and political trends, including overall outlook on the economy and direction of the state, perceptions of regional economies, perceived financial effects of the recent stock market decline, and approval ratings for the governor and the president. • How growing regions and groups such as the Central Valley, Latinos, and independent voters affect overall statewide trends in ballot choices and policy preferences. This report presents the results of the twenty-seventh PPIC Statewide Survey. The surveys have included a number of special editions focusing on particular regions and themes: • The Central Valley (11/99, 3/01, 4/02) • Population Growth (5/01) • San Diego County (7/02) • Land Use (11/01) • Orange County (9/01) • The Environment (6/00, 6/02) • U.S.-Japan Relations (9/01) Copies of this report may be ordered by e-mail (order@ppic.org) or phone (415-291-4400). Copies of this and earlier reports are also posted on the publications page of the PPIC web site (www.ppic.org). -i- Contents Preface Press Release California 2002 Elections September 11th: One Year Later Economic and Political Trends Survey Methodology Survey Questions and Results Survey Advisory Committee i v 1 9 15 19 21 26 - iii - Press Release NEITHER / NOR: CALIFORNIANS UNSATISFIED WITH CHOICES IN GOVERNOR’S RACE Majority Believe State Still Mired in Recession; Most Will Commemorate Anniversary of September 11 SAN FRANCISCO, California, August 29, 2002 — Facing gloomy economic times, Californians are intensely interested in the race for governor but not inspired by their choices, according to a new survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC). Defying the conventional wisdom that voters tune in to the general election only after Labor Day, 74 percent of the state’s likely voters today say they are closely following news about the gubernatorial candidates, compared to 56 percent in the month before the March primary. And voters are taking note of the political advertising that is already saturating the airwaves: 68 percent say they have seen commercials by Democratic Governor Gray Davis (54%) and his Republican challenger Bill Simon (14%). But despite their keen interest, a majority of California’s voters say they are not content with their choices in the race for governor: 54 percent express dissatisfaction with the choice of candidates, while only 38 percent say they are satisfied. In fact, a majority of voters across all regions of the state — men and women alike — say they don’t like their choices. Republicans (58%) are slightly more likely than Democrats (50%) to say they are not satisfied with the candidates. “It’s a long road until November, but at this point neither candidate is connecting with voters on the issues they care about,“ says survey director Mark Baldassare. Among likely voters, Davis leads Simon by 11 points (41% to 30%), with no third-party candidate receiving more than 4 percent of the vote. Davis is buoyed by strong support from Latinos, women, and independent voters. While non-Hispanic whites are divided between the two candidates (35% each), Latinos favor Davis by more that 2-to-1 (58% to 22%). There is a substantial gender gap: Women support Davis over Simon by 19 points (44% to 25%), while men are split (37% to 36%). Thirty-one percent of independent and third-party voters choose Davis, while Simon (19%) is virtually tied with Green Party candidate Peter Miguel Camejo (18%) among this group. Voters Prefer Simon on Electricity, Davis on Ethics As was the case in the primary, California’s likely voters are most eager to hear the candidates talk about the three E’s — education (17%), the economy (13%), and electricity (11%) — during the fall campaign. When asked which candidate would do a better job on these issues, voters prefer Davis over Simon on education (50% to 29%), are split on the economy (40% each), and select Simon over Davis on electricity and energy policy (43% to 34%). By a narrow margin, voters also say that Davis will do a better job on state budget and tax issues (42% to 39%). Davis also gets the nod when it comes to maintaining high ethical standards in government: 43 percent prefer Davis on this issue, compared to 28 percent for Simon. But despite recent reports of financial fraud and accounting scandals in the corporate world, California voters remain as likely today as in the 1998 governor’s race to be split over their preference for a candidate who has experience in running a business (42%) versus experience in elected office (44%). -v- Press Release Majorities Back After-School Programs, Same-Day Voter Registration Support for Proposition 49—a measure that would increase state funding for before- and after-school programs—is running high, with 59 percent of likely voters supporting the measure. Interestingly, the initiative, which has been promoted by GOP activist Arnold Schwarzenegger, receives its strongest support from Democrats (72% yes, 17% no), while Republicans oppose the measure (39% yes, 51% no). But both parties agree on one aspect of the proposition: Democrats (76%) and Republicans (52%) say that the funding it provides would improve children’s safety. A majority of Democrats (66%) also say that the measure will raise student test scores, while a majority of Republicans (50%) say it will not. Overall, 67 percent of voters say that Proposition 49 will improve safety for children and 54 percent believe it will help raise test scores. A slimmer majority (52%) say they favor Proposition 52—a measure that would allow eligible California adults to register to vote on election day. Again, Democrats support the initiative (56% yes, 33% no), while Republicans are more likely to oppose it (43% yes, 48% no). Support for Prop. 52 is also high among independents (58% yes, 33% no). Only small percentages of likely voters believe that this same-day voter registration measure will greatly boost voter turnout (8%), as claimed by advocates, or significantly increase voter fraud (12%), as alleged by critics. Stock Market Losses Impose Economic Pall California residents are far less optimistic about the state’s overall direction and economic prospects than they were just six months ago. Today, only 44 percent believe the state is headed in the right direction, compared to 56 percent in February. And 51 percent say they expect bad times financially in the coming year. “The boost in optimism we saw around the new year seems to have dissipated, and we’re back to where we were one year ago,” says Baldassare. But consistent with earlier trends, Latinos are far more likely than non-Hispanic whites to believe that the state is headed in the right direction (58% to 39%) and to expect good times in the year ahead (52% to 35%). For all the reports of economic recovery, the percentage of Californians (54%) who believe their region is in an economic recession remains virtually unchanged since February. Although near majorities in every region of the state say their region is facing a recession, the perception is strongest in the San Francisco Bay Area, where 73 percent of residents say the economy is in recession and 26 percent believe the situation is serious. In February, 19 percent of Bay Area residents called the recession serious. Why the economic pessimism? The stock market may be a big factor: A majority of Californians believe they are casualties of the recent stock market slump—whether or not they are stockholders. More than half (55%) of state residents say their financial situation has suffered because of the stock market decline. While the finances of stock owners are most heavily affected by the downturn, it has also had a spillover effect on others: 72 percent of stockholders and 33 percent of those who do not own stocks say their financial situation has suffered. Older and high-income residents are more likely than younger, lowerincome Californians to say they have been hurt by the market’s slump. September 11th: Californians Edgy One Year Later As Californians face the anniversary of September 11th, they remain concerned about the possibility of future attacks: 64 percent view terrorism and security as a problem in the state, with 23 percent calling it a big problem. Despite this anxiety, most residents are not worried that they or someone in their family will be the victim of a terrorist attack: Only 12 percent are very worried about the prospect. Why the disconnect? Residents worry more about power plants and water supplies (37%) than about airports and airplanes (17%), high-rise buildings and downtown areas (10%), and roads, bridges, and tunnels (9%) combined. Residents of Los Angeles (21%), the site of a recent airport shooting, are most concerned about - vi - Press Release airports and airplanes, while Bay Area residents (21%) express greatest concern about roads, bridges, and tunnels. Although they are uneasy about terrorism, many Californians do have confidence in their government officials and agencies. Seventy percent of state residents say they approve of the way President George W. Bush is dealing with terrorism and security, and 62 percent also support Governor Davis’ handling of the issue. In addition, 55 percent say they are at least somewhat confident that U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies will be able to prevent future attacks. And they express even greater confidence in the readiness of their local fire department (90%), local police department (74%), and public health agencies (69%) to respond to a terrorist threat. However, although Californians support passage of legislation to create a Department of Homeland Security (60%), they remain more concerned that government will restrict civil liberties in their fight against terrorism (51%) than they are worried that government will fail to enact strong anti-terrorism laws (41%). Notably, Latinos remain far more likely than non-Hispanic whites to see terrorism and security in California as a big problem (38% to 18%) and to be very worried that they or a loved one will be the victim of a terrorist attack (33% to 4%). However, they also express greater confidence that their government officials and agencies can respond to the challenge. More key findings • Observing September 11th (page 9) Although most Californians (74%) say they plan to treat September 11th as they would any other day rather than taking special precautions, 77 percent also say they will observe the day by taking a moment of silent prayer, gathering with friends, or attending a memorial service. Seventy-five percent also expect to display the flag or other American symbols. • Overall Approval Ratings for Bush, Davis (page 18) Support for President Bush remains high in California: 64 percent of state residents say they approve of the job he is doing, while only 32 percent disapprove. Governor Davis has improved his standing among Californians, with 51 percent saying they approve of his performance as governor compared to 39 percent in June. Both Bush (72%) and Davis (69%) enjoy strong support from Latinos. About the Survey The purpose of the PPIC Statewide Survey is to develop an in-depth profile of the social, economic, and political forces affecting California elections and public policy preferences. PPIC will conduct large-scale public opinion surveys on a regular basis leading up to the November 2002 election. Findings of the current survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,014 California adult residents interviewed from August 14 to August 21, 2002. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish. The sampling error for the total sample is +/- 2%. The sampling error for the 1,549 registered voters is +/- 2.5% and for the 993 likely voters is +/3%. For more information on survey methodology, see page 19. Mark Baldassare is research director at PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder and director of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has conducted since 1998. PPIC is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to improving public policy through objective, nonpartisan research on the economic, social, and political issues that affect Californians. The Institute was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or state and federal legislation nor does it endorse or support any political parties or candidates for public office. This report will appear on PPIC’s website (www. ppic.org) on August 29. See graphics next page. ### - vii - If the election for governor were being held today, would you vote for…? Davis Simon Other Don't know 18% 11% 41% Are you satisfied with the choices of candidates for governor on November 5th? Satisfied Not satisfied Don't know 8% 38% 30% __________________________P_e_rc_e_nt_L_ik_e_ly__V_ot_e_rs___ Which candidate would do a better job on maintaining high ethical standards in government? 50 43 40 28 30 18 20 11 10 0 Davis SimoOnther/Neither Don't know __________________________P_e_r_c_en_t_L_ik_e_ly_V_o_t_er_s__ Top four terrorist targets in California 40 37 30 20 17 10 10 0 9 PoHAiwigrerhp/Rorwirotasatse/edrsba,siurbiulrpipldidpalnignegeessss Percent All Adults 54% ____________________P_e_r_c_en_t_L_ik_e_ly_V_o_t_er_s__ Do you expect to do anything special in memory of the victims of September 11th? Yes 22% No Don't know 1% 77% __________________________P_e_rc_e_n_t _A_ll_A_d_ul_ts__ Has your financial situation suffered because of the stock market decline? Percent "Yes" 80 69 60 55 40 43 56 53 20 0 All Central SF Bay Adults Valley Area LA OSC Percent All Adults California 2002 Elections Governor’s Race As Labor Day approaches and political campaigns move into high gear, incumbent governor Democrat Gray Davis leads Republican challenger Bill Simon by 11 points. Among likely November voters, 41 percent would vote for Davis, 30 percent for Simon. The third-party candidates each receive less than 5 percent of the vote, and 18 percent of voters have not decided on a candidate. In the last PPIC Statewide Survey taken before the March primary, Davis had a 4-point lead over Simon (44% to 40%) in a then-hypothetical contest. Since then, Davis’ support has dropped by 3 points, but Simon’s support has eroded by 10. Davis is highly favored by Democrats, and Simon has equally strong support among Republicans. Independent voters and other voters lean toward Davis at this time, and Green Party candidate Peter Miguel Camejo is tied with Simon among the likely voters outside of the major parties. Likely voters in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles favor Davis, and Simon has strong support in the Central Valley, while Davis and Simon are tied in Other Southern California. Women favor Davis over Simon by a 19-point margin (44% to 25%), while men are more evenly split (37% to 36%). Conservatives favor Simon over Davis by more than a three-to-one margin (62% to 18%). Davis leads among moderates (44% to 20%) and is the overwhelming favorite among liberals (65% to 5%). Davis and Simon have equal support among non-Hispanic whites (35% each), but Latinos overwhelmingly support Davis over Simon (58% to 22%). Davis leads Simon in all age, education, and major income categories, but his lead narrows among voters 55 and older (39% to 35%), and those with only some college education (38% to 32%) and with annual household incomes of $40,000 or more (36% to 33%). "If the election for governor were being held today, would you vote for…" Likely Voters Gray Davis Bill Simon Peter Miguel Camejo Gary David Copeland Reinhold Gulke Someone else Don’t know All Likely Voters 41% 30 4 4 1 2 18 Dem 69% 8 2 4 1 2 14 Party Rep 11% 63 0 4 1 3 18 Ind/ Other* 31% 19 18 5 4 2 21 Central Valley 25% 48 3 4 0 2 18 Region SF Bay Area 47% 16 7 5 2 1 22 Los Angeles 50% 25 1 3 1 5 15 Other Southern California 37% 37 3 4 1 2 16 Latino 58% 22 3 4 0 0 13 *In this table, Californians registered to vote as independents (“decline-to-state”) and those registered with “third parties” are combined. In all other tables, independents are reported separately. Party affiliations for the candidates are as follows: Davis (Democrat), Simon (Republican), Camejo (Green), Copeland (Libertarian), and Gulke (American Independent). -1- California 2002 Elections Even though most Californians can state a candidate preference, the majority of likely voters say they are not satisfied with their choices in this gubernatorial election. Indeed, fewer than half of Republicans, Democrats and independent voters are satisfied. Non-Hispanic whites are much less likely than Latinos to say they are satisfied (35% to 53%). A majority of voters across all major regions, and men and women alike, express dissatisfaction with the candidate choices. Fifty-four percent of likely voters are not satisfied; and among these voters, Davis and Simon are in a virtual tie (33% to 31%). Among the 38 percent of voters who are satisfied with the choices, Davis has a large lead over Simon (55% to 31%). This lead can be partially explained by the fact that Democrats (41%) are more likely than Republicans (33%) to be satisfied with the candidate choices. "Would you say that you are satisfied or not satisfied with the choices of candidates in the election for governor on November 5th?" Satisfied Not satisfied Don’t know All Likely Voters 38% 54 8 Democrat 41% 50 9 Likely Voters Republican 33% 58 9 Independent 37% 54 9 Latino 53% 38 9 Voters’ Priorities What do California’s likely voters most want to hear the candidates talk about during the election campaign? Education (17%), the economy (13%), and electricity (11%) top the list. Other issues mentioned by more than 5 percent of likely voters include the state budget, taxes, and the environment. The same three issues—education, the economy, and electricity—topped the list for likely voters in the PPIC Statewide Surveys prior to the March primary. Since then, Californians have become more interested in hearing candidates talk about the state budget (3% to 9%), and a few now mention campaign money and ethics as issues (0% to 4%). Public concerns often noted in our regional surveys—such as traffic, growth, and housing—are rarely mentioned when voters are asked what issues they most want the gubernatorial candidates to discuss. Public safety issues such as crime and terrorism and homeland security are also not among the voters’ chief concerns. Democrats and independent voters are more likely than Republicans to focus on schools as their top issue. Republicans are more likely than Democrats and independent voters to say they want to hear about taxes and the state budget. Regionally, likely voters’ interest in hearing candidates talk about education is highest in Los Angeles (21%) and lowest in the Central Valley (12%). Women are more likely than men (22% to 11%) and Latinos are more likely than non-Hispanic whites (26% to 14%) to name education as the campaign issue they would most like discussed this election year. Similarly, younger voters are more eager than others to want the candidates talk about schools during the campaign (26% for ages 18 to 34, 16% for ages 35 to 54, and 11% for ages 55 and older). -2- California 2002 Elections "Which one issue would you most like to hear the gubernatorial candidate’s talk about before the November 5th election?" Likely Voters Schools/education Jobs and the economy Electricity cost and supply State budget Environment Taxes Campaign money/ethics Immigration Health care Crime and gangs Housing Traffic and transportation Population growth Race relations Terrorism and security Poverty Other Don’t know All Likely Voters 17% 13 11 9 7 6 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 10 7 Party Dem 20% 11 Rep 12% 14 12 9 7 14 94 4 12 44 42 41 22 12 11 21 10 12 12 10 9 69 Ind 18% 14 12 4 8 1 6 1 2 2 2 1 3 3 1 2 12 8 Central Valley 12% 14 12 13 4 6 4 1 2 3 0 1 2 0 1 3 15 7 Region SF Bay Area 16% Los Angeles 21% Other Southern California Latino 15% 26% 18 11 12 7 12 10 12 9 6 10 10 6 9 8 63 6 4 95 4 5 22 0 4 46 3 1 34 4 5 24 4 1 13 1 1 10 3 0 11 1 2 02 0 1 10 1 1 22 8 9 89 4 6 11 11 - 3 - August 2002 California 2002 Elections Candidate Qualifications Recent national scandals involving the corporate world have evidently done little to change Californians’ opinions about what kind of experience makes a candidate most fit for statewide office. Voters are as likely today as they were during the 1998 governor’s race to say they prefer experience in elected office. Today, 44 percent of California’s likely voters believe experience in elected office is a more important qualification for statewide office, while 42 percent think that business experience is more important. There is a stark partisan split over this: 62 percent of Democrats believe that experience in elected office is a more important qualification for statewide office, while 63 percent of Republicans believe experience running a business is more important. Independent voters are about evenly divided in their assessment of the most important qualification for those seeking statewide offices. Among the voters who place a priority on experience in elected office, Davis leads Simon (64% to 15%). Among those who think that experience running a business is more important, Simon leads Davis (49% to 20%), which partly reflects the partisan disparity on the qualifications issue. "People have different ideas about the qualifications they want when they vote for candidate’s for statewide office, such as governor or U.S. Senator. Which of these is most important to you, that the candidate has… " Likely Voters Experience in elected office Experience in running a business All Likely Voters 44% 42 Party Dem Rep 62% 23% 25 63 Region Other Central SF Bay Los Southern Ind Valley Area Angeles California Latino 42% 35% 52% 46% 41% 50% 46 49 35 42 45 41 Neither (volunteered) 5 53 8 5 4 5 52 Both (volunteered) 6 674 6 5 6 66 Don’t know 3 240 5 4 1 31 We also asked which of the major party gubernatorial candidates would do a better job on five issues—education, the economy, electricity, the state budget and taxes, and maintaining high ethical standards in government (i.e., the four top voter issues and a campaign issue for the major party candidates). Likely voters give Davis a large lead over Simon on education (50% to 29%) and on maintaining high ethical standards (43% to 28%), while Simon is favored over Davis on electricity (43% to 34%). Voters are split on whether Davis or Simon would do a better job on the issue of the economy (40% each) and on the state budget and taxes (42% to 39%). Majorities of Democrats believe Davis would do a better job than Simon on education, the economy, the state budget and taxes, maintaining high ethical standards, and electricity. Conversely, majorities of Republicans view Simon as doing a better job than Davis on each of these five issues. Independents see Davis doing a better job than Simon on education and give him a slight edge over Simon on the budget, but they give Simon a slight edge on electricity. While independents choose Davis over Simon on maintaining high ethical standards (40% to 13%), nearly one-third choose neither candidate and 16 percent don’t know. -4- California 2002 Elections Education Gray Davis Bill Simon Other/Neither Don’t know The Economy Gray Davis Bill Simon Other/Neither Don’t know Electricity and energy policy Gray Davis Bill Simon Other/Neither Don’t know State budget and taxes Gray Davis Bill Simon Other/Neither Don’t know Maintaining high ethical standards in government Gray Davis Bill Simon Other/Neither Don’t know "Regardless of your choice for governor, which of these candidates would do a better job on each of these issues…?" Likely Voters All Likely Voters Dem Party Rep Ind Central Valley Region SF Bay Area Los Angeles Other Southern California 50% 29 9 12 70% 11 7 12 24% 56 8 12 53% 18 17 12 35% 42 15 8 61% 15 9 15 52% 26 7 15 50% 35 6 9 40% 40 10 10 65% 15 10 10 12% 72 8 8 36% 35 15 14 21% 57 13 9 47% 30 10 13 46% 35 10 9 39% 46 9 6 34% 43 11 12 54% 22 12 12 12% 70 9 9 28% 36 20 16 24% 55 9 12 40% 34 11 15 36% 35 15 14 32% 50 9 9 42% 39 10 9 64% 17 8 11 16% 69 7 8 41% 32 19 8 26% 58 11 5 52% 28 9 11 48% 30 13 9 38% 46 7 9 43% 28 18 11 67% 8 15 10 16% 58 16 10 40% 13 31 16 31% 46 17 6 48% 15 21 16 48% 23 18 11 39% 34 16 11 Latino 62% 25 6 7 51% 33 6 10 41% 36 5 18 53% 30 9 8 57% 21 11 11 - 5 - August 2002 California 2002 Elections Campaign Awareness: News and Advertising The voters most likely to go to the polls in November are paying a lot of attention to the gubernatorial race this summer: 74 percent say they very closely or fairly closely follow the news about candidates in the 2002 governor’s election. The results are similar across parties, regions, and racial and ethnic groups. By contrast, in a PPIC Statewide Survey one month before the March primary, 56 percent of likely voters said they were very closely or fairly closely following the election. Awareness of paid political commercials is also high: 68 percent of voters say they have noticed television advertising by the candidates for governor in the past month. In all political groups, regions of the state, and demographic groups, commercials by the Davis campaign have made the strongest impression. More than half of likely voters say they have seen Davis ads the most, while 14 percent recall seeing Simon commercials the most in the past month. Davis has a narrow lead (39% to 36%) over Simon among the 54 percent of likely voters who recall seeing Davis’ commercials the most, but a larger lead (47% to 19%) among the 14 percent who recall seeing Simon’s commercials the most. "How closely do you follow news about candidates for the 2002 governor’s election – very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely?" Likely Voters Very closely Fairly closely Not too closely Not at all closely All Likely Voters 22% 52 22 4 Party Dem 20% 52 22 6 Rep 24% 52 20 4 Ind 24% 47 26 3 Central Valley 28% 49 16 7 Region SF Bay Area 23% 53 21 3 Los Angeles 20% 49 26 5 Other Southern California 21% 54 20 5 Latino 21% 55 18 6 "In the past month, have you seen any television advertisements by the candidates for governor? (if yes: "Whose ads have you seen the most?") Likely Voters Yes, Davis Yes, Simon Yes, other No All Likely Voters 54% 14 3 29 Dem 51% 17 3 29 Party Rep 61% 10 2 27 Ind 46% 18 5 31 Central Valley 57% 17 3 23 Region SF Bay Area 56% 14 2 28 Los Angeles 60% 8 3 29 Other Southern California 49% 18 2 31 Latino 49% 14 4 33 -6- California 2002 Elections Proposition 49: Before and After School Programs Initiative Proposition 49 is the citizens’ initiative that would increase state funding for before and after school programs. Fifty-nine percent of all likely voters currently support this proposition, which has been promoted by movie actor and GOP activist Arnold Schwarzenegger. Ironically, a majority of Republicans oppose Proposition 49, while Democrats and independent voters support it. Central Valley voters are divided on this measure, while the majority of voters in the state’s other major regions favor it. Latinos are more supportive than non-Hispanic whites (68% to 55%). Solid majorities in all education and income groups, and among those with and without children, indicate that they would vote yes on Proposition 49. Two in three Californians believe that additional funding for these programs would improve children’s safety, but only 54 percent expect it would raise student test scores. Most Democrats and independent voters expect to see both potential benefits of Proposition 49, while Republicans are more skeptical about the effects of increasing funds for the programs. Latinos are much more likely than non-Hispanic whites to expect improvements in student test scores (73% to 48%), and more often say that Proposition 49 will improve children’s safety (76% to 65%). Proposition 49 is strongly supported among those who believe that increasing funding for before and after school programs will increase student test scores (84% to 10%) and improve children’s safety (77% to 15%). "If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 49, the Before and After School Programs initiative?"* Likely Voters Yes No Don’t know All Likely Voters 59% 31 10 Party Dem 72% 17 11 Rep 39% 51 10 Ind 65% 26 9 Central Valley 44% 46 10 Region SF Bay Area 66% 25 9 Los Angeles 62% 26 12 Other Southern California 58% 34 8 Latino 68% 21 11 "Do you think that the additional funding in Proposition 49 for before and after school programs will or will not…?" Likely Voters Party Region All Likely Voters Dem Rep Other Central SF Bay Los Southern Ind Valley Area Angeles California Latino Raise student test scores? Will 54% 66% 38% 56% 40% 57% 60% 53% 73% Will not 33 19 50 32 48 28 30 32 20 Don’t know 13 15 12 12 12 15 10 15 7 Improve children’s safety? Will 67% 76% 52% 74% 56% 70% 69% 65% 76% Will not 25 16 40 18 34 21 25 26 19 Don’t know 8 8 8 8 10 9 6 9 *see questionnaire for complete text for Proposition 49, the Before and After School Programs initiative (question #11). 5 - 7 - August 2002 California 2002 Elections Proposition 52: The Election Day Registration, Voter Fraud Penalties Initiative Proposition 52 is a citizens’ initiative that would allow eligible California adults to register to vote on election day. A slim majority of likely voters support this ballot measure, and nearly four in 10 oppose it at this early stage. While Proposition 52 has support from 56 percent of Democrats and 58 percent of independent voters, only 43 percent of Republicans support it. Support for the initiative is roughly equal among non-Hispanic whites (52%) and Latinos (49%). Across regions, Proposition 52 gets the most support from likely voters in Los Angeles (61%) and the least from Central Valley voters (44%). Few California voters think that voter turnout (8%) or voter fraud (12%) will increase a lot if Proposition 52 passes; majorities think there will be little or no effect. It is interesting that 53 percent of unregistered adults support the same-day registration measure and 39 percent oppose it, and 21 percent believe voter turnout in elections will increase a lot if Proposition 52 passes. Support for Proposition 52 is higher among those voters who think that the same-day voter registration initiative will increase voter turnout a lot (58% to 39%) or somewhat (67% to 26%) than among those who expect very little (53% to 42%) or no effect (40% to 53%) on increasing voter turnout. Proposition 52 is also more popular among those who expect that it would only increase voter fraud a little (62% to 29%) or not at all (64% to 31%) than among those who expect Proposition 52 to have a lot (13% to 84%) or somewhat (43% to 49%) of an effect on increasing voter fraud. "If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 52, the Election Day Registration, Voter Fraud Penalties initiative?"* Likely Voters Party Region All Likely Voters Dem Rep Other Central SF Bay Los Southern Ind Valley Area Angeles California Latino Yes 52% 56% 43% 58% 44% 49% 61% 49% 49% No 39 33 48 33 44 40 32 41 39 Don’t know 9 11 9 9 12 11 7 10 12 *see questionnaire for current text for Proposition 52, the Election Day Voter Registration, Voter Fraud Penalties initiative (question #14). "If Prop 52 passes, do you think it would…?" (Likely Voters) A lot Somewhat A little Not at all Don’t know Increase voter turnout 8% 29 26 31 6 Increase voter fraud 12% 16 21 43 8 -8- September 11th: One Year Later As September 11th approaches, most Californians plan to commemorate, but not to be daunted by, the first anniversary of the terrorist attacks. More than three-quarters expect to observe the occasion by doing something special—such as taking a moment of silent prayer, gathering with friends, or attending a memorial service—in memory of the victims. Three in four Californians also expect to display the flag or other American symbols on that day. Nevertheless, most of them (74%) plan to treat September 11th like any other day, not taking special precautions against terrorist attacks, such as not flying on airplanes or avoiding large cities or crowds. San Francisco Bay Area residents are more likely than people in other regions of the state to say that they will treat September 11th like any other day and less likely to say they plan some patriotic display that day. Latinos are much more likely than non-Hispanic whites to say that they expect to take precautions against terrorist attacks on September 11th (46% to 16%) and that they plan to do something special in memory of the victims (85% to 72%). Both are equally likely to say that they will display the flag on that day. While similar percentages of Democrats and Republicans plan to treat the day like any other day and to commemorate the victims, Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to plan on displaying patriotic symbols (89% to 69%). Older, higher income, and college-educated adults are more likely to plan to go ahead with their normal routines and less likely to memorialize the victims on September 11th . Do you expect to do anything special in memory of the victims of September 11th— such as take a moment of silent prayer, gather with friends, or attend a memorial service? Yes No Don’t know Do you expect to display the flag or other American symbols on September 11th? Yes No Don’t know Thinking ahead to the anniversary of September 11th terrorist attacks, do you plan to…? Treat the day as any other day Take precautions against terrorist attacks Don’t know All Central Adults Valley 77% 22 1 78% 20 2 75% 23 2 79% 19 2 74% 25 1 73% 26 1 Region SF Bay Area Los Angeles Other Southern California 72% 25 3 78% 21 1 79% 20 1 64% 35 1 76% 22 2 79% 19 2 81% 17 2 70% 28 2 72% 26 2 Latino 85% 13 2 79% 19 2 52% 46 2 -9- September 11th: One Year Later Terrorism and Security in California Nearly a year after the September 11th attacks, 64 percent of Californians still see terrorism and security as somewhat of a problem (41%) or a big problem (23%) in California. Overall, the percentage who see terrorism and security as either somewhat of or a big problem is down from January 2002 (69%) and December 2001 (73%). "How much of a problem is terrorism and security in California today?" Big problem Somewhat of a problem Not much of a problem Don’t know All Central Adults Valley 23% 22% 41 38 34 38 22 Region SF Bay Los Area Angeles Other Southern California 17% 29% 24% 41 41 41 38 27 33 43 2 Latino 38% 36 25 1 When asked if they are worried that they or someone in their family will be the victim of a terrorist attack, 65 percent of Californians say that they are either not too worried (38%) or not at all worried (27%). This concern over the direct impact of a terrorist attack has not changed much since January 2002 when 64 percent, or December 2001 when 62 percent, of the state’s residents said that they were not too worried or not at all worried. "How worried are you that you or someone in your family will be the victim of a terrorist attack?" Very worried Somewhat worried Not too worried Not at all worried All Central Adults Valley 12% 13% 23 20 38 38 27 29 Region SF Bay Los Area Angeles Other Southern California 10% 18% 9% 21 26 26 42 32 40 27 24 25 Latino 33% 29 25 13 Latinos are much more likely than non-Hispanic whites to see terrorism and security in California today as a big problem (38% to 18%) and to be very worried that they or someone in their family will be the victim of a terrorist attack (33% to 4%). Across regions, Los Angeles residents are the most likely to see terrorism and security as either somewhat of or a big problem (70%). Los Angeles residents are also more likely than people in other regions to be either somewhat or very worried (44%) about a potential direct terrorist attack on themselves or their families. Californians with college educations are less likely than those with high school degrees or less education to see terrorism and security as somewhat of or a big problem (61% to 72%), and also less likely to worry about being a victim (24% to 52%). Women are more likely than men to see this as a problem in California (69% to 59%), and more likely to be worried (41% to 30%). - 10 - September 11th: One Year Later Potential Terrorist Targets in California What potential terrorist targets worry Californians the most? Overall, they are most likely to worry about power plants and water supplies (37%) and airports and airplanes (17%). Fewer Californians mention high-rise buildings and downtown areas (10%) and roads, bridges, and tunnels (9%). Nationally, 25 percent of Americans identify airplanes and airports as the terrorist target that worries them the most. However, concerns vary across California's regions: Los Angeles residents are the most likely to be worried about airports and airplanes (21%), while San Francisco Bay Area residents are the most likely by far to say that their chief concerns are roads, bridges, and tunnels (21%). Other Southern California residents are the most likely to worry about power plants and water supplies (43%). Latinos are much more likely than non-Hispanic whites to be most concerned about airports and airplanes (24% to 13%). "What do you worry most about in terms of terrorist targets in California?" Power plants and water supplies Airports and airplanes High rise buildings and downtown areas Roads, bridges, and tunnels Boats and seaports Buses and trains All of the above (volunteered) Something else (specify) Don’t know All Central Adults Valley 37% 40% 17 17 10 8 9 10 42 22 44 11 10 67 Region SF Bay Los Area Angeles Other Southern California 31% 32% 43% 13 21 17 10 13 8 21 5 3 35 6 23 2 43 5 9 13 11 75 5 Latino 34% 24 12 6 3 3 4 10 4 - 11 - August 2002 September 11th: One Year Later Terrorism Readiness On the eve of the anniversary of the September 11th terrorist attacks, the majority of Californians express confidence in the terrorism readiness of key national and local agencies. Fiftyfive percent are somewhat or very confident in the abilities of U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies to prevent future terrorist attacks in which large numbers of Americans are killed. National public opinion is similar: In June 2002, a Newsweek Poll found that 58 percent of Americans shared this confidence in U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies. Californians express even greater confidence in their local public agencies’ terrorism readiness: 74 percent have some or a great deal of confidence in their local police department, 69 percent in their public health agencies, and a huge 90 percent in their local fire department’s readiness to respond to the threat of terrorist attacks. How confident are you that U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies will be able to prevent future terrorist attacks? Very confident Somewhat confident Not too confident Not at all confident Don’t know How much confidence do you have in your local police department in terms of providing security in response to the threat of terrorist attacks? A great deal Some Very little/None Don’t know How much confidence do you have in your local fire department in terms of their readiness to respond? A great deal Some Very little/None Don’t know How much confidence do you have in your local public health agencies in terms of their readiness to respond? A great deal Some Very little/None Don’t know All Adults Central Valley Region SF Bay Los Area Angeles Other Southern California Latino 10% 45 30 14 1 11% 49 24 13 3 6% 42 33 18 1 13% 42 32 12 1 11% 48 30 11 0 18% 42 29 10 1 30% 44 24 2 30% 41 28 1 27% 46 23 4 32% 45 22 1 31% 45 21 3 34% 42 23 1 55% 35 7 3 56% 32 10 2 50% 39 9 2 58% 35 6 1 57% 35 5 3 57% 34 9 0 23% 46 26 5 25% 43 26 6 21% 49 25 5 24% 45 27 4 24% 48 22 6 30% 41 28 1 - 12 - September 11th: One Year Later Approval Ratings on Terrorism and Security A majority of Californians rate their city’s response to the threat of terrorist attacks in the aftermath of September 11th as either excellent (14%) or good (38%). In all of the state’s major regions and across all demographic groupings, pluralities give city government excellent or good ratings on this measure. Californians also tend to think highly of the job that the top national and state leaders are doing on the issue of terrorism and security. Overall, 70 percent of Californians give President Bush a strong approval rating on his handling of terrorism and security issues. Residents across the state rate the president highly, regardless of geographic location, age, income, and education. However, there are significant differences in approval ratings between Republicans (88%) and Democrats (57%) and those who label themselves as conservative (83%) and those who call themselves liberal (53%). Moreover, Bush’s approval rating on these issues has declined for the first time since September 11th. In November 2001, 83 percent of Californians approved of the way Bush was handling terrorism and security issues, and this high rating continued through December 2001 (85%) and January 2002 (85%). Governor Davis also enjoys relatively high job approval ratings on terrorism and security issues in California. Overall, 62 percent of Californians approve of the job that he is doing on these issues. Like the president's ratings, the governor’s approval rating on terrorism has slipped, though more modestly, from January 2002 (68%), and only back to the level first highlighted in November 2001 (62%). Today, Davis continues to get majority support in this area across the state and among all major demographic groupings. The governor’s ratings are also similar to the president’s in that there is a large partisan gap (69 percent of Democrats support him on terrorism and security, compared to 50 percent of Republicans). Latinos are much more likely to support Davis’s work on terrorism and security than non-Hispanic whites (72% to 58%). Do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling the issue of terrorism and security? Approve Disapprove Don’t know Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Davis is handling the issue of terrorism and security in California? Approve Disapprove Don’t know All Adults Party Registration Democrat Republican Independent Latino 70% 26 4 57% 38 5 88% 10 2 63% 33 4 75% 21 4 62% 22 16 69% 16 15 50% 34 16 61% 21 18 72% 19 9 - 13 - August 2002 September 11th: One Year Later National Terrorism and Security Issues Should the United States establish a cabinet-level department of Homeland Security? A majority of Californians (60%) think so. Support for the proposed department is lower in California than support nationally: 73 percent of all Americans in the most recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll on the subject said that the department should be created. Nevertheless, majorities of Californians across all demographic categories and major geographic regions support the new department. Only in the San Francisco Bay Area are residents nearly divided in their support for the department (50% to 43%). Latinos (73%) are particularly supportive of the proposal, as are non-native citizens (66%) and non-citizens (77%). "Do you think that the U.S. Congress should or should not pass legislation to create a new cabinet department of Homeland Security?" Should Should not Don’t know All Adults 60% 32 8 Party Registration Democrat 55% 38 7 Republican 65% 26 9 Independent 58% 35 7 Latino 73% 21 6 Despite overall support for a new cabinet-level office of homeland security, Californians tend to be more concerned that the government will enact anti-terrorism laws that excessively restrict the civil liberties of the average person (51%) than that the government will fail to enact tough new antiterrorism laws (41%). On this fundamental trade-off in the “War on Terrorism,” California opinion remains steady: In January 2002, 51 percent of Californians were more concerned about too many new laws and 37 percent with too few. Since September 2001, national opinion has moved closer to Californians’: The Pew Research Center reports that in June 2002, Americans were more concerned about the civil liberties of average people (49%) than about enacting too few tough laws (35%). Concern about civil liberties in the face of new anti-terrorism laws remains a partisan issue: Democrats are much more concerned than Republicans that tough new laws will excessively restrict civil liberties (56% to 38%). Older and more conservative Californians also continue to worry less about hypothetical reductions in civil liberties than do their younger and more liberal counterparts. One change from January 2002 is that, today, San Francisco Bay Area residents are much more likely than residents in the state’s other major regions to think that new anti-terrorism laws will excessively restrict civil liberties (62% to 31%). "In general, which concerns you more right now, that…?" Party Registration Government will fail to enact strong anti-terrorism laws Government will enact new anti-terrorism laws that excessively restrict the average person’s civil liberties Don’t know All Adults Democrat Republican Independent Latino 41% 36% 53% 35% 40% 51 56 38 8 89 58 53 77 - 14 - Economic and Political Trends Overall Outlook Residents today are much less optimistic about California’s economy and the direction of the state than they were just six months ago. Today, only 39 percent of Californians think that good times lie ahead, while 51 percent expect the financial environment will be bad. Nearly half (48%) believe that the state is headed in the wrong direction. The boost in optimism seen earlier in the new year seems to have disappeared; the overall outlook is now similar to that found during the height of the electricity crisis and in the months following the September 11th terrorist attacks. Almost six in ten residents (56%) in the San Francisco Bay Area expect bad economic times in the next twelve months, as compared to roughly half of residents living in other parts of the state. Central Valley residents (57%) are more likely than those living in the San Francisco Bay Area (50%), Los Angeles (43%), and Other Southern California (45%) to say that the state is headed in the wrong direction. Consistent with earlier trends, Latinos are much more likely than non-Hispanic whites to expect good times in the next twelve months (52% to 35%), and to say that the state is headed in the right direction (58% to 39%). The percentage of Californians who are pessimistic about the state’s overall direction and economic future increases with education and income. For example, residents with incomes of $40,000 per year or higher (53%) are more likely than those earning less than $40,000 per year (48%) to say that they expect bad financial times in the next twelve months. Californians making more than $40,000 per year (51%) are also more likely than those making less than $40,000 per year (42%) to say that the state is headed in the wrong direction. "Do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?" Good times Bad times Don’t know Sep 99 72% 23 5 Dec 99 76% 19 5 Feb 00 78% 15 7 Aug 00 72% 21 7 All Adults Jan May 01 01 Jul 01 51% 38% 41% 38 56 50 11 6 9 Nov 01 32% 59 9 Dec 01 37% 56 7 Jan 02 48% 46 6 Feb 02 46% 47 7 Aug 02 39% 51 10 "Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?" Right direction Wrong direction Don’t know Dec 98 63% Sep 99 61% Dec 99 62% Feb 00 65% Aug 00 62% All Adults Jan May 01 01 Jul 01 62% 44% 44% Nov 01 60% Dec 01 58% Jan 02 59% Feb 02 56% Aug 02 44% 28 34 31 27 30 29 48 47 29 33 32 36 48 9 5 7 8 8 9 8 9 11 9 9 8 8 - 15 - Economic and Political Trends Regional Economy More than half of Californians (54%) believe that their region is in an economic recession. This percentage is virtually the same as in February (55%); however, there has been a 4-point increase in the percentage of residents who believe their region is now in a serious recession (12% to 16%). San Francisco Bay Area residents have the most negative perceptions of their regional economy. Three in four Bay Area residents (73%) say their region is in a recession, as compared to about half of the adults living in the Central Valley (49%), Los Angeles (53%), and Other Southern California (45%). One in four San Francisco Bay Area residents believes his/her region is in a serious recession—a 7 percent increase since February (19% to 26%). Latinos and non-Hispanic whites have similar opinions about the state of their regional economies. While a majority in all age groups believe that their regional economy is in a recession, residents 55 and older (21%) and those between 35 and 54 years old (18%) are much more likely than younger residents (12%) to characterize their regional recession as serious. Households earning less than $40,000 per year are more likely to report that their region is in a recession (58%) than households making more than $40,000 per year (53%). There are no significant differences in perceptions across party, gender, or education groups. "Would you say that your region is in an economic recession or not?" (if yes: "Do you think it is in a serious, a moderate, or a mild recession?") August 2002 Would you say that your region is in an economic recession, or not? Yes, serious recession Yes, moderate recession Yes, mild recession No Don’t know February 2002 Would you say that your region is in an economic recession, or not? Yes, serious recession Yes, moderate recession Yes, mild recession No Don’t know All Adults Central Valley 16% 25 13 43 3 13% 20 16 45 6 All Adults Central Valley 12% 27 16 42 3 9% 22 16 47 6 Region SF Bay Area Los Angeles 26% 35 12 25 2 14% 23 16 44 3 Region SF Bay Area Los Angeles 19% 36 16 28 1 11% 29 14 42 4 Other Southern California 14% 22 9 52 3 Other Southern California 8% 23 18 47 4 Latino 14% 23 15 42 6 Latino 12% 24 16 44 4 - 16 - Economic and Political Trends Stock Market More than half of California residents (55%) say their financial situation has suffered because of a declining stock market. While stockholders are the most likely to say they have been hurt by a declining market, there has been a considerable spillover effect for Californians who do not own stocks: 72 percent of those who own stocks and 33 percent of those who do not own stocks say their financial situation has suffered. Seven in ten Bay Area residents say their financial situation has deteriorated as a result of a falling market, a far greater percentage than those living in other parts of the state, including the Central Valley (43%), Los Angeles (56%) and Other Southern California (53%). This regional gap may reflect the fact that a higher percentage of Bay Area residents (70%) own stocks compared to residents in the Central Valley (53%), Los Angeles (53%), and Other Southern California (56%). Overall, 58 percent of Californians own stocks or mutual funds that include stocks. There is further evidence in our survey that the stock market decline has affected other demographic groups than those heavily invested in stocks. While only 33 percent of Latinos own stocks, compared to 67 percent of non-Hispanic whites, nearly one-half of Latinos say they have suffered financially because of the stock market decline, as compared to 58 percent of non-Hispanic whites. Older residents are more likely to say their financial situation has suffered: 34 percent of residents 55 and older and 36 percent of those between 35 and 54 years old say they have suffered a lot due to the stock market decline, as compared to only 17 percent of respondents under 35 years of age. Almost three-quarters of those residents whose annual income is over $80,000 say that they have suffered because of the market decline, as compared to 54 percent of residents with incomes between $40,000 and $79,999 and 44 percent of those who earn less than $40,000. "Thinking about the last twelve months, has your financial situation suffered because of the stock market decline?" (if yes: "Has your financial situation suffered a lot or a little?") Yes, a lot Yes, a little No Don’t know All Adults 29% 26 43 2 Central Valley 20% 23 56 1 Region SF Bay Area 37% 32 30 1 Los Angeles 28% 28 43 1 Other Southern California 29% 24 45 2 Latino 23% 26 50 1 Stockowners Only Yes, a lot Yes, a little No Don’t know All Adults 40% 32 27 1 Central Valley 30% 32 38 0 Region SF Bay Area 45% 34 20 1 Los Angeles 38% 35 26 1 Other Southern California 43% 29 27 1 Latino 34% 26 39 1 - 17 - August 2002 Economic and Political Trends Approval Ratings Sixty-four percent of Californians approve of President Bush’s performance in office. The president's approval rating hasn't changed over the past two months, and it represents a marked decline from his ratings in the immediate aftermath of September 11th. Californians’ approval of Bush is consistent with his national ratings: 65 percent approve of his job performance, according to an August 2002 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. Approval of President Bush is highest among Republicans: 88 percent of Republicans think he's doing a good job, compared to 47 percent of Democrats and 55 percent of independents. Bush has higher support among Latinos today (72%) than he did in June (64%). When asked to assess President Bush’s handling of the issues of financial fraud and accounting irregularities by large business corporations, only 54 percent of Californians approved of his performance. Interestingly, the largest gap between the president’s overall approval rating and approval of his handling of the fiscal irregularities is among Republicans: 72 percent of Republicans approve of Bush’s handling of the business problem, while 88 percent approve of his overall job performance. Fifty-one percent of California adults approve of Governor Davis. This is a higher approval rating than the 39 percent he received in June and similar to his ratings last February. Today, 65 percent of the governor’s fellow Democrats approve of his performance in office, compared to one in two independent voters and one in four Republicans. Nearly seven in 10 Latinos express approval of the governor. Among likely voters, 43 percent approve and 52 percent disapprove of his performance in office, which is similar to his ratings six months ago. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling his job as president of the United States? Approve Disapprove Don’t know Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Gray Davis is handling his job as governor of California? Approve Disapprove Don’t know All Adults 64% 32 4 51% 42 7 Party Registration Democrat Republican Independent Latino 47% 48 5 65% 28 7 88% 10 2 23% 71 6 55% 41 4 72% 24 4 49% 44 7 69% 25 6 (All Adults) Percent Approve President Bush Governor Davis Sept 00 -- 66% Oct 00 -- 60% Jan 01 -- 62% May 01 57% 46 Jul 01 47% 44 Sept 01 57% 40 Nov 01 80% 54 Dec 01 79% 51 Jan 02 80% 52 Feb 02 76% 51 June 02 65% 39 Aug 02 64% 51 - 18 - Survey Methodology The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance in research and writing from Jon Cohen, survey research manager; Dorie Apollonio and Lisa Cole, survey research associates; and Caroline Burnett, survey intern. The findings of this survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,014 California adult residents interviewed between August 14 and August 21, 2002. Interviewing took place on weekday nights and weekend days, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted telephone numbers were called. All telephone exchanges in California were eligible for calling. Telephone numbers in the survey sample were called up to ten times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing by using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Each interview took an average of 18 minutes to complete. Interviewing was conducted in English or Spanish. Casa Hispana translated the survey into Spanish. We used recent U.S. Census and state figures to compare the demographic characteristics of the survey sample with characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the census and state figures. The survey data in this report were statistically weighted to account for any demographic differences. The sampling error for the total sample of 2,014 adults is +/- 2 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 2 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger. The sampling error for the 1,549 registered voters is +/- 2.5 percent. The sampling error for the 993 likely voters is +/- 3 percent. Sampling error is just one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. Throughout the report, we refer to four geographic regions. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “SF Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, and “Other Southern California” includes the mostly suburban regions of Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. These four regions were chosen for analysis because they are the major population centers of the state, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population; moreover, the growth of the Central Valley and “Other Southern California” regions have given them increasing political significance. We present specific results for Latinos because they account for about 28 percent of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest growing voter groups. The sample sizes for the African American and Asian subgroups are not large enough for separate statistical analysis. We do contrast the opinions of registered Democrats, Republicans, and independents. The “independents” category includes those who are registered to vote as “decline to state.” In some cases, we compare PPIC Statewide Survey responses to responses recorded in national surveys conducted by Newsweek in June 2002, ABC News/ Washington Post in July 2002, Fox News Opinion Dynamics Poll in June 2002, CNN/USA Today/Gallup in June and August 2002, and Pew Research Center in June 2002. We used earlier PPIC Statewide Surveys to analyze trends over time in California. - 19 - PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT AUGUST 14 – AUGUST 21, 2002 2,014 CALIFORNIA ADULTS RESIDENTS; ENGLISH AND SPANISH MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 2% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE [Responses recorded for questions 1-16 and for question 43 are from likely voters only. All other responses are from all adults.] 1. I have a few questions about the November 5th general election. If the election for governor were held today, would you vote for Gray Davis (the Democrat), Bill Simon (the Republican), Gary David Copeland (the Libertarian), Reinhold Gulke (the American Independent), Peter Miguel Camejo (the Green Party), or someone else? (rotate names) 41% Gray Davis, the Democrat 30 Bill Simon, the Republican 4 Peter Miguel Camejo, the Green 4 Gary David Copeland, the Libertarian 1 Reinhold Gulke, the American Independent 2 someone else (specify) 18 don’t know 2. Would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with the choices of candidates in the election for governor on November 5th? 38% satisfied 54 not satisfied 8 don’t know 3. Which one issue would you most like to hear the gubernatorial candidates talk about before the November 5th election? 17% schools, education 13 jobs, the economy 11 electricity cost and supply 9 state budget 7 environment 6 taxes 4 campaign money and ethics 3 immigration 3 health care 3 crime and gangs 2 housing 1 traffic and transportation 1 population growth 1 race relations 1 terrorism and security 1 poverty 10 other 7 don’t know Regardless of your choice for governor, which of these candidates would do a better job on each of these issues— Gray Davis or Bill Simon? (rotate questions 4 through 8) 4. How about education? 50% Gray Davis 29 Bill Simon 9 other/ neither (volunteered) 12 don’t know 5. How about the economy? 40% Gray Davis 40 Bill Simon 10 other/ neither (volunteered) 10 don’t know 6. How about electricity and energy policy? 34% Gray Davis 43 Bill Simon 11 other/ neither (volunteered) 12 don’t know 7. How about the state budget and taxes? 42% Gray Davis 39 Bill Simon 10 other/ neither (volunteered) 9 don’t know 8. How about maintaining high ethical standards in government? 43% Gray Davis 28 Bill Simon 18 other/ neither (volunteered) 11 don’t know 9. How closely do you follow news about candidates for the 2002 governor’s election—very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 22% very closely 52 fairly closely 22 not too closely 4 not at all closely 10. In the past month, have you seen any television advertisements by the candidates for governor? (if yes: Whose ads have you seen the most?) 54% yes, Gray Davis 14 yes, Bill Simon 3 yes, other answer (specify) 29 no - 21 - 11. Also on the November ballot is Proposition 49, the “Before and After School Programs" initiative.” Proposition 49 increases state grant funds available for before and after school programs, providing tutoring, homework assistance, and educational enrichment. It requires that, beginning in 2004-05, new grants will not be taken from the education funds guaranteed under Proposition 98. The fiscal impact of the measure is projected to be additional annual state costs for before and after school programs of up to $455 million, beginning in 200405. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 49? 59% yes 31 no 10 don’t know 12. Do you think that the additional funding in Proposition 49 for before and after school programs will or will not raise student test scores? 54% will 33 will not 13 don’t know 13. Do you think that the additional funding in Proposition 49 for before and after school programs will or will not improve children’s safety from crime? 67% will 25 will not 8 don’t know 14. Proposition 52 on the November 2002 ballot, the “Election Day Voter Registration, Voter Fraud Penalties" initiative, allows legally eligible persons to register to vote on election day. It increases criminal penalties for voter and voter registration fraud and criminalizes conspiracy to commit voter fraud. The fiscal impact is projected to be annual state costs of about $6 million to fund counties for election day voter registration activities. There are no anticipated net county costs, minor state administrative costs, and unknown, but probably minor, state costs to enforce new election fraud offense. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 52? 52% yes 39 no 9 don’t know 15. If Proposition 52 passes, do you think that the number of Californians voting in elections is likely to increase a lot, somewhat, a little, or not at all? 8% a lot 29 somewhat 26 a little 31 not at all 6 don’t know 16. If Proposition 52 passes, do you think that the amount of voter fraud in California elections is likely to increase a lot, somewhat, a little, or not at all? 12% a lot 16 somewhat 21 a little 43 not at all 8 don’t know 17. Some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote? (if yes: Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or as an independent?) 35% yes, Democrat (skip to q.19) 26 yes, Republican (skip to q.20) 4 yes, other party (skip to q.21) 12 yes, independent (ask q.18) 19 no, not registered (ask q.18) 3 don’t know (ask q.18) 18. (if independent, not registered, don’t know, or refuse on q.17) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican party or Democratic party? 27% Republican party (skip to q.21) 46 Democratic party (skip to q.21) 20 neither (volunteered) (skip to q.21) 8 don’t know (skip to q.21) 19. (if Democrat on q.17) Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 48% strong (skip to q.21) 49 not very strong (skip to q.21) 3 don’t know (skip to q.21) 20. (if Republican on q.17) Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 51% strong 46 not very strong 2 don’t know 21. On another topic, do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 44% right direction 48 wrong direction 8 don’t know 22. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 39% good times 51 bad times 10 don’t know - 22 - 23. On another topic, people have different ideas about the government in Washington. These ideas don’t refer to Democrats or Republicans in particular, but just to government in general. We want to see how you feel about these ideas. How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right—just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time? 7% just about always 30 most of the time 58 only some of the time 4 none of the time (volunteered) 1 don’t know 24. On another topic, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling his job as president of the United States? 64% approve 32 disapprove 4 don’t know 25. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling the issue of terrorism and security? 70% approve 26 disapprove 4 don’t know 26. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling the issues of financial fraud and accounting irregularities by large business corporations? 54% approve 37 disapprove 9 don’t know 27. People have different ideas about the state government in Sacramento. How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Sacramento to do what is right—just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time? 5% just about always 32 most of the time 57 only some of the time 4 none of the time (volunteered) 2 don’t know 28. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Gray Davis is handling his job as governor of California? 51% approve 42 disapprove 7 don’t know 29. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Davis is handling the issue of terrorism and security in California? 62% approve 22 disapprove 16 don’t know 30. Changing topics, would you say that your region is in an economic recession or not? (if yes: Do you think it is in a serious, a moderate, or a mild recession?) 16% yes, serious recession 25 yes, moderate recession 13 yes, mild recession 43 no 3 don’t know 31. Do you own any shares of individual stocks or mutual funds that include stocks, including money that is in retirement accounts? 58% yes 41 no 1 don’t know 32. Thinking of the past twelve months, has your financial situation suffered because of the stock market decline? (if yes: Has your financial situation suffered a lot or a little?) 29% yes, a lot 26 yes, a little 43 no 2 don’t know 33. On another topic, would you consider yourself to be politically very liberal, somewhat liberal, middleof-the-road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative? 10% very liberal 21 somewhat liberal 30 middle-of-the-road 26 somewhat conservative 11 very conservative 2 don’t know 34. Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics—a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 19% great deal 44 fair amount 31 only a little 5 none 35. How often would you say you vote—always, nearly always, part of the time, seldom, or never? 49% always 22 nearly always 12 part of the time 6 seldom 11 never - 23 - August 2002 The next set of questions is about some of your activities in the past year. Please tell me if you have or have not done any of the following in the past 12 months. (rotate questions 36 to 42) 36. Have you written or e-mailed a local, state, or federal elected official? 30% yes 70 no 37. Have you attended a political rally or speech? 16% yes 84 no 38. Have you attended a meeting on local or school affairs? 40% yes 60 no 39. Have you signed a petition, such as the signatures gathered for local or state initiatives? 41% yes 59 no 40. Have you worked for a political party, candidate, or initiative campaign? 7% yes 93 no 41. Have you given money to a political party, candidate, or initiative campaign? 21% yes 79 no 42. Have you been a member of any group that is working toward better government or political reform? 15% yes 85 no 43. (Likely voters only) People have different ideas about the qualifications they want when they vote for candidates for statewide office, such as governor or U.S. senator. Which of these is most important to you—(a) that the candidate has experience in elected office, or (b) that the candidate has experience running a business? (rotate a and b) 44% experience in elected office 42 experience running a business 5 neither (volunteered) 6 both (volunteered) 3 don’t know 44. On another topic, do you think that the U.S. Congress should or should not pass legislation to create a new cabinet department of Homeland Security? 60% should 32 should not 8 don’t know 45. In general, which concerns you more right now— that the government will fail to enact strong antiterrorism laws, or that the government will enact new anti-terrorism laws that excessively restrict the average person’s civil liberties? 41% government will fail to enact strong antiterrorism laws 51 laws will excessively restrict the average person’s civil liberties 8 don’t know 46. How confident are you that U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies will be able to prevent future terrorist attacks in the United States in which large numbers of Americans are killed— very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? 10% very confident 45 somewhat confident 30 not too confident 14 not at all confident 1 don’t know 47. How much of a problem is terrorism and security in California today? Is it a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem? 23% big problem 41 somewhat of a problem 34 not much of a problem 2 don’t know 48. What do you worry most about in terms of terrorist targets in California—airports and airplanes; boats and seaports; buses and trains; high rise buildings and downtown areas; roads, bridges, and tunnels; power plants and water supplies; or something else? (rotate choices) 37% power plants and water supplies 17 airports and airplanes 10 high rise buildings and downtown areas 9 roads, bridges, and tunnels 4 boats and seaports 2 buses and trains 11 something else (specify) 4 all of the above 6 don’t know - 24 - 49. How worried are you that you or someone in your family will be the victim of a terrorist attack—very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not at all worried? 12% very worried 23 somewhat worried 38 not too worried 27 not at all worried 50. Overall, how would you rate your city government’s response to the threat of terrorist attacks since September 11th—excellent, good, fair, or poor? 14% excellent 38 good 29 fair 9 poor 3 not applicable, don’t live in a city 7 don’t know 51. How much confidence do you have in your local police department in terms of providing security in response to the threat of terrorist attacks—a great deal, some, very little, or none? 30% a great deal 44 some 16 very little 8 none 2 don’t know 52. How much confidence do you have in your local fire department in terms of their readiness to respond to the threat of terrorist attacks—a great deal, some, very little, or none? 55% a great deal 35 some 6 very little 1 none 3 don’t know 53. How much confidence do you have in your local public health agencies in terms of their readiness to respond to the threat of terrorist attacks—a great deal, some, very little, or none? 23% a great deal 46 some 20 very little 6 none 5 don’t know 54. Suppose that your local government said it needed to raise the sales tax to increase funding for police, fire, and public health agencies as part of an effort to increase terrorism readiness. Would you favor or oppose a higher sales tax for this purpose? 52% favor 44 oppose 4 don’t know 55. As a result of September 11th, would you say the residents of your local area have grown closer together, have the residents grown further apart, or has there been no change? 36% residents have grown closer together 3 residents have grown further apart 59 there has been no change 2 don’t know 56. Thinking ahead to the anniversary of the September 11th terrorist attacks, do you plan to treat that day as any other day, or do you plan to take precautions against terrorist attacks, such as not fly on airplanes or avoid large cities or crowds? 74% treat as any other day 25 take precautions 1 don’t know 57. Do you expect to do anything special in memory of the victims of September 11th—such as take a moment of silent prayer, gather with friends, or attend a memorial service? 77% yes 22 no 1 don’t know 58. Do you expect to display the flag or other American symbols on September 11th? 75% yes 23 no 2 don’t know [59-70: demographic questions] - 25 - August 2002 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Advisory Committee Mary Bitterman President The James Irvine Foundation Angela Blackwell President Policy Link Paul Brest President The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Mollyann Brodie Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley Matt Fong Chairman Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation Advisory Committee William Hauck President California Business Roundtable Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Monica Lozano President and Chief Operating Officer La Opinión Donna Lucas President NCG Porter Novelli Max Neiman Director Center for Social and Behavioral Research University of California, Riverside Dan Rosenheim News Director KPIX-TV Richard Schlosberg President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Carol Stogsdill President Stogsdill Consulting Cathy Taylor Vice President and Editorial Commentary Director Orange County Register Raymond L. 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