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string(86156) "PPIC Statewide Survey:Californians and Their GovernmentMark BaldassareSenior Fellow and Survey DirectorDecember 1999PublicPolicyInstituteofCalifornia The Public Policy Institute of California is a private, nonprofit research organizationestablished in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. The Institute conductsindependent, objective, nonpartisan research on the economic, social, and political issuesaffecting Californians. The Institute's goal is to raise public awareness of these issues andgive elected representatives and other public officials a more informed basis for developingpolicies and programs.Public Policy Institute of California500 Washington Street, Suite 800 • San Francisco, California 94111Telephone: (415) 291-4400 • Fax: (415) 291-4401info@ppic.org • www.ppic.org - i -PrefaceCalifornia is in the midst of historic changes that will profoundly affect its future. Tounderstand these changes and how they influence voters’ choices at the ballot box, PPIC isconducting a series of comprehensive statewide surveys on the theme of "Californians and TheirGovernment." This report presents the results of the third of these statewide surveys, which willcontinue up to the November 2000 election. The first survey in this series was conducted inSeptember. The second survey—a special edition that focused on the Central Valley—was conductedin November.The purpose of the PPIC Statewide Survey is to develop an in-depth profile of the social,economic, and political forces affecting California elections and public policy preferences. Thesurveys are intended to provide the public, the media, and policymakers with relevant, non-partisan,and advocacy-free information on the following:· What Californians know about government at all levels, how they rate elected officialsand public services, and what government actions they prefer.· The public’s interest in civic affairs and politics, their current and preferred informationsources, their attention to state political news, and their ratings of the media.· How growing regions and groups—such as the Central Valley, suburban regions, Latinos,and independent voters—affect the state’s elections and policy debates.· The political attitudes and perceptions that are tied to "voter distrust" of government andthe social, economic, and political factors that explain low voter turnout in stateelections.· The role of political, social, and economic attitudes in public support for citizens’initiatives and government reform proposals.Copies of the September or November reports or additional copies of this report may be orderedby calling (800) 232-5343 [mainland U.S.] or (415) 291-4415 [Canada, Hawaii, overseas]. - iii -ContentsPrefacei Press Releasev California 2000 Election1 California State Government13 California in the New Millennium21 Political, Social, and Economic Trends27 Survey Methodology33 Survey Questions and Results35 Survey Advisory Committee40 - v -Press ReleaseCALIFORNIANS HAVE SPLIT VISION FOR STATE IN NEW MILLENNIUMToday’s Optimism Fades When Residents Gaze Into Future;Bradley, McCain Pick Up Steam As March Primary NearsSAN FRANCISCO, California, December 14, 1999 — Bladerunner or techno-utopia? Despite boomconditions, Californians are surprisingly ambivalent about the future of their state, according to anew survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California.In the short term, Californians are bullish. Sixty-two percent say that the state is generally headedin the right direction, and three in four say they expect good financial times in the coming year.Californians are also more likely than the nation as a whole to believe that Y2K will create noproblems (24% to 14%).However, when state residents are asked to look ahead twenty years, evidence of a far more dividedvision emerges. In the year 2020, large majorities believe they are likely to see improvements in thepublic education system (63%), race relations (61%), and job opportunities and economic conditions(60%) in their regions. At the same time, substantial numbers of Californians also expect to see agrowing gap between rich and poor (72%), a decline in the quality of the environment (60%), and anincrease in the crime rate (55%). Higher income residents are more likely than others to say that theeconomy will improve, but they are also the most likely to say that the income gap will grow.Overall, more Californians are pessimistic than optimistic about the state’s long-term outlook. In2020, 43 percent expect the state to be a worse place to live than it is today, while 25 percent think itwill be a better place. Latinos are the exception, with slightly more believing that the state will be abetter place to live in 2020 than a worse place (34% to 31%).“Looking ahead to life in the new millennium, Californians see cause for hope but also for greatanxiety,” said PPIC Statewide Survey Director Mark Baldassare. “Although California is the locusof a booming new economy, concerns about quality of life and the perception of a widening gulfbetween haves and have-nots has led to deep uncertainty about the Golden State’s future.”Indeed, this uncertainty extends to a more fundamental confusion about the changing sociallandscape of the state. Most residents do not know the current population of the state (about 34million) and even fewer have a sense of what it will look like two decades from now (the Departmentof Finance estimates 45 million). Only four percent of Californians have a handle on the state’scurrent and future population projections. Interestingly, individuals who correctly estimate thestate’s current or future population also happen to be among the most pessimistic about California’scondition in the year 2020.Whose Vision?While they appear to be mostly satisfied with the status quo in the short term, Californians areclearly uncomfortable with the current balance of power in Sacramento. When residents are askedwho has the most influence over public policy in state government today, 37 percent name thelegislature, 33 percent the Governor, and 20 percent state ballot initiatives. When asked to describethe balance of power they prefer, many residents make clear that they would like to reserve the Press Release- vi -policy influence for themselves. Forty-two percent say they would like ballot initiatives to have themost influence, while 30 percent mention the legislature as their top choice, and 21 percent name theGovernor.Although they may prefer their vision to his, 51 percent of Californians still give Governor GrayDavis excellent or good marks. Only 37 percent say the state legislature is doing an excellent or goodjob. President Clinton’s job performance ratings remain unchanged since September, with 55percent of residents saying he is doing an excellent or good job. Californians are less pleased withthe performance of the U.S. Congress, but their excellent or good ratings have climbed nine pointssince hitting a low in September (from 26% to 35%).Underdogs Emerging as Political Forces in PrimaryAlthough they still trail far behind the leading presidential contenders in the March primary, BillBradley and Senator John McCain have made substantial gains since PPIC’s September survey.Both have more than doubled their support in California, with Bradley now receiving 15 percent andMcCain 9 percent among likely voters. Governor George W. Bush now holds a narrow lead over VicePresident Al Gore (28% to 24%) and has made strong gains against Gore among Latinos.In head-to-head general election match-ups, Bush finds himself in a statistical dead heat withBradley (46% to 44%). In September, Bush led Bradley by 13 percent. California voters continue toshow a slight preference for Bush over Gore in a head-to-head match-up (48% to 44%). Bush showsconsiderable strength in the Central Valley and in Southern California (excluding Los Angeles) —two crucial areas for Republicans. Both Gore and Bradley are running strong in the San FranciscoBay Area, but they lack majority support in the Democratic stronghold of Los Angeles County. Menfavor Bush over Gore and Bradley by more than 10 points, while women favor Gore and Bradley overBush by narrow margins.“With more than three months to go until the March primary, it seems we have the makings of acompetitive presidential contest in the state,” said Baldassare. “The majority of Californians arelooking for a candidate who can connect with people like them. There is clearly room for anunderdog who is willing to devote major energy and resources to getting to know people in this vastand diverse state.”In the race for U.S. Senate, incumbent Senator Dianne Feinstein is running strong with 50 percentsupport, while underdog challenger Congressman Tom Campbell receives 12 percent, and 30 percentof likely voters remain undecided. Feinstein and Campbell currently receive almost equal supportamong Republicans (20% to 21%). Feinstein is buoyed by strong job performance ratings: 58 percentapprove of her job as a U.S. Senator and 33 percent disapprove. Campbell’s chances could be hurt bythe fact that a greater number of Californians disapprove of the job performance of Republicanleaders in Congress than approve of it (55% to 37%).Internet Politics Still in InfancyOne in five Californians say they have surfed the net to gather news and information about politicsand elections, but only 7 percent say they often go on-line for this reason. However, there is reasonto believe that gathering political news and information on the Internet is a growing phenomenon:The practice is twice as common among younger residents (25% for those who are 18 to 24) thanamong older residents (13% for those 55 and older). Candidates have their work cut out for them if Press Release- vii -they hope to entice potential supporters to their web sites: Only 9 percent of Californians havevisited the web sites of presidential candidates, with just 1 percent saying they visit candidate sitesoften.Californians are split on the issue of Internet voting. Forty-seven percent favor a system that wouldallow state residents to vote in elections electronically, while 48 percent oppose such a system.Surprisingly, there is a lack of overwhelming support for Internet voting even among Internetregulars. Internet users are more likely than nonusers to support on-line voting (54% to 37%), butalmost half of the Internet’s savvy users are opposed or undecided. If they had a choice, 46% ofCalifornians say they would prefer to vote at their local polling place rather than by absentee ballot(23%) or over the Internet (30%).About the SurveyThe purpose of the PPIC Statewide Survey is to develop an in-depth profile of the social, economic,and political forces affecting California elections and public policy preferences. PPIC will conductlarge-scale public opinion surveys on a regular basis leading up to the November 2000 election.Findings are based on a telephone survey of 2,009 California adult residents interviewed fromNovember 29 to December 8, 1999. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish. The samplingerror for the total sample is +/- 2%. The sampling error for the 1,529 voters is +/- 2.5% and for the949 likely voters is +/- 3.5%. For additional information on survey methodology, see page 33.Dr. Mark Baldassare is a senior fellow at PPIC. He is founder and director of the Orange CountyAnnual Survey at UC Irvine. For over two decades, he has conducted surveys for major newsorganizations, including the Orange County Edition of the Los Angeles Times, the Orange CountyRegister, the San Francisco Chronicle, KCAL-TV, and KRON-TV. Dr. Baldassare is the author of aforthcoming book on the changing social and political landscape of California (expected in February2000).PPIC is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to objective, nonpartisan research on economic,social, and political issues that affect the lives of Californians. The Institute was established in 1994with an endowment from William R. Hewlett.### - 1 -California 2000 ElectionPresidential PrimaryThe presidential primary in California is becoming more competitive. Voters most likely to go tothe polls now give Texas Governor George W. Bush (28%) a narrow lead over Vice President Al Gore(24%), but the biggest change is that both Bill Bradley (15%) and Senator John McCain (9%) havemade substantial gains since September. Likely voters give little support to the other presidentialcandidates and 14 percent are undecided.Among Democratic voters, less than half (43 %) support Gore, and 23 percent support Bradley.Just over half (52 %) of Republican voters support Bush, compared to 12 percent for McCain.Independent voters are fairly evenly divided among Bush, Gore, and Bradley. Across regions, Goreleads Bush (33% to 16%) in the San Francisco Bay Area; they are tied in Los Angeles County (27ch); and Bush leads Gore (35% to 17%) in the rest of Southern California and in the Central Valley(32% to 21%). Latinos favor Gore over Bush by nine points (35% to 26%). Men favor Bush over Gore(29% to 20%), while women give equal support to Bush and Gore (27% each).Democrats' support for Gore and Bradley varies by gender. Gore is more likely to get the nodfrom Democratic women (47%) than from Democratic men (38%), while Bradley has more supportamong Democratic men (27%) than Democratic women (20%). Bush has equal support amongRepublican men (53%) and Republican women (52%), while McCain does better among Republicanmen (16%) than Republican women (8%).Since last December, Bush has gained voters (21% to 28%) while Gore has lost them (31% to24%). Bush’s support increased among Republicans (40% to 52%), while Gore’s support declinedamong Democrats (53% to 43%). Gore's support held steady only in the San Francisco Bay area,while Bush made gains in the Central Valley and Southern California. Among Latinos, Gore'ssupport dropped (50% to 35%), while Bush made gains (16% to 26%)."If the Presidential Primary were held today, who would you vote for?"Likely VotersDec 98Sep 99Dec 99George W. Bush 21% 27% 28%Al Gore312724Bill Bradley – 715John McCain – 4 9Steve Forbes 4 3 3Gary Bauer – 1 2Donald Trump – – 1Someone else *2517 4Don't know191414* In earlier surveys, “someone else” includes candidates who have since left the race. California 2000 Election- 2 -"If the Presidential Primary were held today, who would you vote for?"Likely Voters (Dec 99)PartyRegionLatinoDemRepOtherCentralValleySF BayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaGeorge W. Bush 9% 52% 18% 32% 16% 27% 35% 26%Al Gore43 3222133271735Bill Bradley23 5211220151417John McCain 61210 911 7 9 6Steve Forbes 1 5 2 4 0 2 5 1Gary Bauer 0 3 3 1 1 3 1 0Donald Trump 1 1 4 2 1 1 2 2Someone else 1 7 5 4 3 4 3 1Don't know16121515 15141412Leading Presidential CandidatesAlthough Democrats have an edge in California voter registration, it isn't evident when likelyvoters consider their choice in head-to-head general election match-ups between Bush and Bradleyor Gore. California voters favor Bush slightly over Gore (48% to 44%), if they were the presidentialcandidates in November 2000. This is unchanged from the September survey. However, Bush is nowin a statistical tie with Bradley (46% to 44%), given the margin of error for the survey. In September,Bush had a 13-point lead over Bradley.When matched against Bradley or Gore, Bush is supported by more than eight in 10Republicans, one in three independents, and one in six Democrats. Bradley and Gore both have thesupport of about three in four Democrats, half of the independents, and very few Republicans.Bush shows considerable strength in two key regions that Republicans need to win—the CentralValley and the Southern California region outside of Los Angeles. Both Gore and Bradley arerunning strong in the San Francisco Bay area. Both Democrats fall short of majority support in LosAngeles County, a region crucial to a Democrat’s success in statewide elections. In both hypotheticalmatch-ups, Bush would get the vote of about one in three Latinos, which is a decent showing givenrecent registration and voting trends among Latinos. A majority of Latino voters support both Goreand Bradley when matched against Bush.There are gender differences in presidential preferences, with men favoring Bush over Gore(52% to 40%), while women support Gore over Bush (48% to 44%). In a similar pattern, men alsofavor Bush over Bradley (51% to 41%), while women support Bradley over Bush (46% to 42%). California 2000 Election- 3 -"If these were the candidates in the Presidential Election inNovember 2000, who would you vote for?"Likely VotersDec 98Sep 99Dec 99George W. Bush 47% 49% 48%Al Gore454444Don't know 8 7 8George W. Bush – 51% 46%Bill Bradley –3844Don't know –1110Likely Voters (Dec 99)PartyRegionLatinoDemRepOtherCentralValleySF BayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaGeorge W. Bush 16% 87% 37% 58% 32% 43% 58% 33%Al Gore767483559493359Don't know 8 615 719 8 9 8George W. Bush 16% 84% 34% 54% 30% 44% 55% 38%Bill Bradley7110513659423853Don't know13 615101114 7 9Presidential Candidate QualificationsWhat qualifications matter most to voters when they choose among presidential candidates?Among likely voters, 58 percent say that a candidate's stands on the issues is the deciding factor. Twenty-two percent give the nod to a candidate's character, and 13 percent value experience in office the most.While stands on the issues is the top qualification for every voter group, a higher percent ofRepublicans (33%) and independents (22%) than Democrats (12%) give first place to the candidate'scharacter. Character is mentioned as a top priority more often in the Central Valley than elsewhere.Latinos are more likely than non-Hispanic whites to rate experience the highest (27% to 10%).Of the 13 percent of likely voters who say that experience is most important, Gore (42%) is favoredover Bush (19%) and Bradley (15%). Of the 22 percent who name character as their top priority, mostchoose Bush (41%) over Gore (11%) and Bradley (10%). Of the 58 percent who most value the candidate’sstands on the issues, support is divided between Bush (25%), Gore (24%), and Bradley (18%).Even though a majority rates “stands on the issues” as important, half of the likely voters also say itis "very important" for them to learn about how well a candidate connects with people like themselves.Democrats (60%) are more likely than Republicans (46%) or independents (51%) to place a high priorityon the “human side" of the candidates. Across regions, the candidate's connection with people is morehighly valued in Los Angeles than elsewhere. Latinos are much more likely than non-Hispanic whites(75% to 47%) to say it is very important for them to learn about how well a candidate connects with them. California 2000 Election - 4 - Stands on the issues 58% Character 22 Experience 13 Political party 5 Other, don't know 2 Likely Voters (Dec 99) PartyRegionLatino Dem Rep Other Stands on the Character 12 33 22 29 17 21 22 15 Experience 17 9 13 13 16 13 12 27 Political party 4 6 3 5 3 4 6 6 Other, don't know 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 "How important is it for you to learn about how well a candidate connect s with people like you?" Very important 53% Somewhat important 34 Not important 11 Don't know 2 Likely Voters (Dec 99) PartyRegionLatino Dem Rep Other Very important 60% 46% 51% 53% 50% 59% 49% 75% Somewhat important 28 42 31 33 37 29 37 16 Not important 10 11 15 11 10 11 14 8 Don't know 2 1 3 3 3 1 0 1 California 2000 Election- 5 -U.S. Senate RaceIn the open primary for the U.S. Senate seat, incumbent U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein has alarge lead over other candidates. In a race where there is currently no Democratic challenger, 50percent of likely voters would vote for Feinstein. Among the Republicans, Congressman TomCampbell leads the other three GOP candidates, but has only 12 percent of the total vote. Thirtypercent of voters are still undecided.Seventy-eight percent of Democrats say they would vote for Feinstein in the March Primary,while one in six are undecided. Almost half of the Republicans are undecided, while those who havemade up their minds favor Campbell over the other three GOP candidates. At this point, as manyRepublicans favor Democratic Senator Feinstein as support Campbell. Half of the independents saythey will vote for Feinstein, while 11 percent favor Campbell and three in 10 are undecided.Feinstein has similar support among men (48%) and women (52%), while Campbell also hasequal support among men (13%) and women (10%). Within the parties, Democratic men (77%) andDemocratic women (79%) show equal support for Feinstein, while Republican men (22%) andRepublican women (19%) thus far give similar support to Campbell.Support for both Feinstein and Campbell is strongest on their home turf—the San FranciscoBay area. Feinstein's support is considerably weaker in the Central Valley and in SouthernCalifornia outside of Los Angeles County because of a large number of undecided voters in these twomore Republican-leaning regions. Support for Feinstein is much higher among Latinos (67%) thanamong non-Hispanic whites (44%). In the latter group, 34 percent of voters say they are undecided."If the March 2000 Primary election for the U.S. Senate werebeing held today, who would you vote for?"Likely Voters (Dec 99)Dianne Feinstein 50%Tom Campbell12Ray Haynes 3Bill Horn 2J.P. Gough 0Other 3Don't know30 California 2000 Election- 6 -"If the March 2000 Primary election for the U.S. Senate werebeing held today, who would you vote for?"Likely Voters (Dec 99)PartyRegionLatinoDemRepOtherCentralValleySF BayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaDianne Feinstein 78% 20% 48% 42% 64% 54% 42% 67%Tom Campbell 32111 816 613 9Ray Haynes 0 6 4 7 3 2 4 0Bill Horn 1 3 2 3 0 2 2 1J.P. Gough 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0Other 1 3 7 2 3 2 4 1Don’t know1747283714343522Approval RatingsThe high approval ratings (58%) for the incumbent Senator point to an uphill battle for anyRepublican challenger. Eighty-one percent of Democrats, 53 percent of the independent voters, and34 percent of the Republicans have a favorable impression of Feinstein's job performance. Latinos(70%) have an even more positive impression than non-Hispanic whites (53%) of Feinstein.An additional difficulty for GOP Congressman Campbell is that the voters have a mostlynegative impression of Republican leaders in the U.S. Congress. Fewer than four in 10 approve whileover half disapprove of their job performance. Seventy percent of Democrats and independent votersand 32 percent of Republicans disapprove. Disapproval is about equal among Latinos (49%) and non-Hispanic whites (53%).Likely Voters (Dec 99)"Do you approve or disapprove of the job that DianneFeinstein is doing as a U.S. Senator?"Approve 58%Disapprove33Don't know 9"Do you approve or disapprove of the job thatRepublican leaders in Congress are doing?"Approve 37%Disapprove55Don't know 8 California 2000 Election- 7 -Proposition 22: "Limit on Marriage" InitiativeThe "Limit on Marriage Initiative," Proposition 22, would require that only a marriage betweena man and a woman be recognized in the state. Californians still strongly favor this initiative, but bya somewhat smaller margin than in previous PPIC statewide surveys. Fifty-eight percent of likelyvoters are in favor of Proposition 22, while 38 percent are opposed.The initiative's title was recently changed by the Attorney General from "Definition ofMarriage" to "Limit on Marriage." The wording of the question in the most recent survey waschanged to reflect the new title. It is possible that the new ballot title could have been a factor inreducing the level of voter support over time, although there may be other reasons for the decline.About half of the Democrats and independents oppose this initiative while Republicansoverwhelmingly support it. San Francisco Bay Area voters are split, while voters in the Central Valleyare most strongly in favor of the initiative. Latinos (59%) and non-Hispanic whites (56%) show similarsupport, as do men (60%) and women (56%).Despite their positive feelings about an initiative that would ban gay and lesbian marriages inCalifornia, a solid majority of voters (57%) support the recent state legislation to legally recognizeand extend rights to domestic partnerships for gays and lesbians. Seventy percent of Democrats and68 percent of independent voters support this new legislation, while 56 percent of Republicansoppose it. Latinos (69%) are even more supportive than non-Hispanic whites (56%).Moreover, eight in 10 voters approve of state legislation that makes it unlawful to discriminatein employment or housing based on a person's sexual orientation. Eighty-eight percent of Democrats,76 percent of the independent voters, and 69 percent of Republicans are in favor of these new legalprotections for gays and lesbians. Once again, Latinos (85%) are even more supportive of this newstate legislation than are non-Hispanic whites (78%)."Proposition 22, the ‘limit on marriage’ initiative on the March 2000 ballot, adds a provision to the family codeproviding that only a marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California. If theelection were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 22?"Likely VotersDec 98*Sep 99*Dec 99Yes 64% 63% 58%No333438Don't know 3 3 4* Referred to as "Definition of Marriage" initiative in previous surveys California 2000 Election- 8 -If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 22?"Likely Voters (Dec 99)PartyRegionLatinoDemRepOtherCentralValleySF BayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaYes 47% 74% 46% 64% 48% 59% 60% 59%No4822503246353738Don't know 5 4 4 4 6 6 3 3Likely Voters (Dec 99)"The Governor recently signed state legislation giving recognition and rights todomestic partnerships for gays and lesbians, including the establishment of astatewide registry for domestic partnerships, providing hospital visitation rights fordomestic partners, and providing health benefits for the domestic partners of stateemployees. Do you approve or disapprove of this state legislation?"Approve 57%Disapprove39Don't know 4"The Governor also recently signed state legislation that makes it unlawful todiscriminate against someone in employment or housing based on the person’ssexual orientation. Do you approve or disapprove of this state legislation?"Approve 78%Disapprove20Don't know 2 California 2000 Election- 9 -Proposition 26: Simple Majority VoteThe priority voters give to improving education tests their loyalty to the two-thirds vote ruleimposed by Proposition 13. They continue to give strong support to an initiative that would changethe requirement for passing local school bonds from two-thirds to a simple-majority vote. Two inthree of the voters most likely to go to the polls say they would support Proposition 26, the "SchoolFacilities, Local Majority Vote" initiative on the March 2000 ballot.Since the September survey, support for this initiative has dropped by 12 points and oppositionhas increased by 11 points. However, the proposition still leads by nearly a two-to-one margin.There is at least majority support for this initiative across all voter registration groups andregions of the state. Support is stronger among Democrats (73%) and independents (63%) thanamong Republicans (56%). There are no significant differences across regions. Latinos (77%) aremore supportive than non-Hispanic whites (61%).Voters are not only willing to make it easier to pass local public school bonds, but are alsoinclined to vote for local school bond measures if they are placed on the March 2000 ballot. Seventy-two percent say that they would vote yes if their local school district had a bond measure on the ballotto pay for school construction projects, while only 22 percent would vote no. Support is 80 percentamong Democrats, 69 percent among independent voters, and 64 percent among Republicans. Bothwomen (74%) and men (69%) are strongly supportive, as are Latinos (84%) and non-Hispanic whites(69%).However, the deep loyalty to Proposition 13 reasserts itself when voters are asked about thegeneral idea of changing the vote requirements needed to raise local taxes. They strongly oppose(69% to 27%) changing Proposition 13 to allow local special taxes to pass with a simple majorityinstead of a two-thirds vote. A majority of Democrats (59%), Republicans (76%), and independentvoters (80%) are opposed. Latinos and non-Hispanic whites are equally opposed (69% each) to thesimple majority vote."Proposition 26, the 'school facilities, local majority vote' initiative on the March 2000 ballot, would authorizeschool and community college districts and county education offices to issue bonds for construction,rehabilitation, or replacement of school facilities if approved by a simple majority of local voters.Currently, a two-thirds majority is required to pass local school bonds. If the electionwere held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 26?" Likely VotersSep 99Dec 99Yes 76% 64%No2031Don't know 4 5 California 2000 Election- 10 -If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 26?"Likely Voters (Dec 99)PartyRegionLatinoDemRepOtherCentralValleySF BayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaYes 73% 56% 63% 67% 64% 64% 64% 77%No2239343230303217Don't know 5 5 3 1 6 6 4 6Likely Voters (Dec 99)"Suppose your local school district had a bond measure on the March 2000 ballot topay for school construction projects. Would you vote yes or no?”Yes 72%No22Don't know 6"Under Proposition 13, a two-thirds vote at the ballot box is required to pass anylocal special tax increases. Do you favor or oppose allowing local special taxincreases to pass with a simple majority instead of a two-thirds vote?"Favor 27%Oppose69Don't know 4 California 2000 Election- 11 -News Stories About the Presidential ElectionHow much attention are voters paying to the lead-up to the presidential primary? About two-thirds of likely voters are paying at least some attention. One in six are "very closely" following thenews stories about the candidates. The biggest group—about half—are following them "fairlyclosely," but one in three have yet to focus on the presidential sweepstakes.Right now, Republicans (72%) are a little more likely than Democrats (64%) and other likelyvoters (66%) to be at least fairly closely following the presidential primaries. There are no significantdifferences across regions. Latino voters (58%) are less likely than non-Hispanic white voters (70%) tobe very closely or fairly closely following the election.Among the general public, attention to news stories about candidates for the 2000 presidentialelection is much lower. Almost half of Californians say they follow this type of political news veryclosely (11%) or fairly closely (37%). More than half follow the news about presidential candidateseither not too closely (36%) or not at all closely (16%). There are large age differences: Only 36percent of 18 to 34 year olds are very or fairly closely following the presidential election news,compared to 46 percent of 35 to 54 year olds and 68 percent of those 55 and older."How closely have you been following the news storiesabout candidates for the 2000 presidential election?"Likely Voters (Dec 99)Very closely 16irly closely52Not too closely26Not at all closely 6Don't know 0Likely Voters (Dec 99)PartyRegionLatinoDemRepOtherCentralValleySF BayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaVery closely 13% 18% 15% 10% 16% 17% 17% 14irly closely5154515654515144Not too closely2923282923262633Not at all closely 7 5 6 5 6 6 6 8Don't know 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 - 13 -California State GovernmentMost Important Issue for 2000When asked to name the one issue that the Governor and State Legislature should work on in2000, Californians are most likely to mention schools. Twenty-eight percent rank schools as the mostimportant issue, while less than one in 10 mentions immigration (8%), crime (7%), health care andHMO reform (5%), and jobs and the economy (5%). Other issues such as poverty, taxes, and trafficreceive even fewer mentions. Seventeen percent are not sure what issue is most in need of attention.Schools are named as the top priority for state government in every region, among both Latinos andnon-Hispanic whites, and by Republicans, Democrats, and independent voters. One year ago, 36percent said that schools should be the top priority for the Governor and State Legislature in 1999,indicating that public concern about this issue has declined somewhat since December 1998.“Which one issue facing California today do you think is most importantfor the Governor and State Legislature to work on in 2000?”RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySF BayAreaLos AngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaLatinoSchools, education 28% 25% 30% 30% 27% 25%Immigration, illegal immigration 8 6 510 9 7Crime, gangs 7 8 411 612Health care, HMO reform 5 5 6 3 6 3Jobs, the economy 5 5 2 6 5 8Poverty, the homeless, the poor, welfare 4 6 6 3 4 5Taxes 4 7 3 3 5 2Environment, pollution 3 3 5 3 2 1Traffic and transportation 3 3 7 2 3 2Growth, overpopulation 2 1 3 1 3 0Housing costs, housing availability 2 0 5 1 1 0Race relations, ethnic tensions 2 2 0 2 2 5Drugs 1 3 1 1 2 3Government regulations 1 1 2 1 1 1Guns, gun control 1 2 0 1 1 2State and local finance 1 1 0 0 1 1State budget 1 1 0 1 1 2State government, governor, legislature 1 1 1 1 1 1Water 1 1 0 1 1 0Other 3 2 2 4 3 2Don't know171718151618 California State Government- 14 -Job Performance Ratings for State OfficialsAlthough a slim majority of Californians give high marks to Governor Gray Davis, even fewerthink highly of the Legislature's performance. Fifty-one percent rate Governor Davis's performance inoffice as excellent or good, one-third say he is doing a fair job, and 12 percent rate his job performanceas poor. In the September survey, 51 percent also gave Davis excellent or good ratings.The Governor’s positive ratings are fairly consistent across all regions of the state. Latinos (62%)are more likely than non-Hispanic whites (48%) to give Davis high marks. Democrats (61%) give theGovernor more excellent or good grades than do independent voters (48%) or Republicans (39%).In contrast, only 37 percent say the California Legislature is doing an excellent or good job. Fourin 10 rate the legislative body of California government as doing a fair job, and 13 percent rate it asdoing poorly. In the September survey, 32 percent gave the State Legislature excellent or good ratings.The ratings of the Legislature are similar in all regions. Latinos (48%) are more likely than non-Hispanic whites (33%) to give the Legislature excellent or good grades. Democrats (43%) give highermarks to the Legislature than independent voters (32%) or Republicans (29%).RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySFBayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaLatino“How do you rate the job performance ofGovernor Gray Davis at this time?”Excellent 9% 7% 7% 8%Good424644434143Fair313136273126Poor1211 91113 6Don’t know 6 5 4 6 7 6“How do you rate the job performance of theCalifornia legislature at this time?”Excellent 3% 2% 3% 4% 3% 7%Good343334353441Fair414543404138Poor1313111114 7Don't know 9 7 910 8 7 California State Government- 15 -Knowledge of PartisanshipHow much does partisanship figure in people's perceptions of California government? Aboutseven in 10 Californians know that Governor Davis is a Democrat. Twelve percent think he is aRepublican and 19 percent are uncertain. Knowledge of the Governor’s party affiliation is slightlyhigher in the San Francisco Bay area and in Los Angeles than in other regions. About half of Latinosknow the Governor’s party affiliation, compared to 73 percent of non-Hispanic whites. Democrats(78%) and Republicans (79%) are more aware than independent voters (57%) and those who are notregistered to vote (48%) that Davis is a Democrat.Only 42 percent of Californians know that the California Legislature is currently controlled bythe Democrats. Twenty-three percent think the Republicans are in charge, while 35 percent areunsure. Fewer than half of those surveyed know which political party is currently in control of theState Legislature. Latinos (34%) are less likely than non-Hispanic whites (47%) to know.Interestingly, Republicans (57%) are more knowledgeable about the Democrats being in power, whilefewer than half of the Democrats (43%), independent voters (39%), and those who are not registeredto vote (24%) named the Democrats.There are large differences in political knowledge across age groups. Among those 18 to 34 yearsold, 54 percent know that the Governor is a Democrat and 34 percent are aware that the Legislatureis controlled by the Democrats. Among those 35 to 54 years old, 72 percent know that Davis is aDemocrat and 43 percent know who runs the Legislature. Among those 55 and older, 83 percent knowthe party of the Governor and 51 percent know the party controlling the Legislature.RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySFBayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaLatino“Do you happen to know if California GovernorGray Davis is a Democrat or a Republican?”Democrat 69% 66% 73% 71% 66% 56%Republican121511121217Don’t know191916172227“Do you happen to know if the Californialegislature is controlled by the Democrats orthe Republicans?”Democrats 42% 39% 43% 44% 39% 34%Republicans232419232527Don't know353738333639 California State Government- 16 -Perceptions of Political ViewsCalifornians hold a wide variety of perceptions about the political views of their state officials,but most see them as occupying the middle of the political spectrum. One in three see GovernorDavis as a liberal, one in three see him as middle-of-the-road, and one in four see him as aconservative. The most common perception of Governor Davis—held by 59 percent of residents—isthat his political views are either somewhat liberal or middle-of-the-road.Republicans (46%) are much more likely than Democrats (32%) or independent voters (31%) toperceive Governor Davis as a liberal. About one-third of Republicans (32%), Democrats (37%), andindependents (35%) see him as middle-of-the-road. Fewer Republicans (16%) than Democrats (24%)and independent voters (30%) see him as a conservative.A similar one in three perceive the Legislative leadership as liberal, one in three see them asmiddle-of-the-road, and one in four see them as conservative. The most common perception of theLegislative leadership is that they are somewhat liberal or middle-of-the-road (56%).Republicans (50%) are much more likely than Democrats (29%) or independent voters (32%) toperceive the Legislative leadership as liberal. Republicans (27%) are less likely than Democrats(33%) and independents (30%) see them as middle-of-the-road. Fewer Republicans (14%) thanDemocrats (29%) and independent voters (30%) see their State Legislative leaders as conservative.There is not much difference across regions in political perceptions of state leaders. Latinos aremore likely than non-Hispanic whites to see the Governor and State Legislature as conservative.Most Californians (58%) describe their own political beliefs as middle-of-the-road to somewhatconservative. Half see the Governor (51%) and Legislative leaders (50%) in this way.RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySFBayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaLatino“Would you consider Governor Gray Davis to bepolitically….”Very liberal 9% 8% 8% 9% 9% 4%Somewhat liberal262925272522Middle-of-the-road333238273625Somewhat conservative181620221526Very conservative 6 8 3 7 511Don’t know 8 7 6 81012“Would you consider the leadership in the CaliforniaLegislature to be politically.…”Very liberal 9% 11% 7% 10% 8% 7%Somewhat liberal252827252225Middle-of-the-road313135253322Somewhat conservative191718211824Very conservative 5 3 5 8 510Don’t know1110 8111412 California State Government- 17 -“Undivided” State GovernmentCalifornia has had a divided state government for most of the past 16 years: From 1983through 1998, the state had a Republican Governor, but both houses of the Legislature werecontrolled by the Democrats during most of that time. How do Californians rate the policy impact ofnow having a Democratic governor and a Legislature controlled by the Democrats? To most, thechange that took place in early 1999 is irrelevant. Nearly half say it has made no difference forpublic policymaking to have the same party in control of the executive and legislative branches ofstate government. Of those who think that one-party rule has made a difference, more are likely tosay it has been a good thing rather than a bad thing (30% to 19%).As would be expected, the Democrats are more likely to say that “undivided” government is agood thing rather than a bad thing for policymaking (43% to 8%), while Republicans are more likelyto say it is a bad thing (38% to 16%). Independents are more likely to say one-party rule has been agood thing rather than a bad thing for policymaking (27% to 17%). In all voter groups, though, themost frequent response is that having the Governor and Legislature from the same party makes nodifference.The regional trends reflect the regional variations in party registration. In the Democraticregions of the state (i.e., the San Francisco Bay area, Los Angeles) residents are more inclined to saythat “undivided government” is a good thing, while in the more Republican regions (i.e., the CentralValley, Southern California suburbs) residents are more likely to say that having the one party incontrol of state government is a bad thing. Latinos are less likely than non-Hispanic whites to saythat unified government is a bad thing (8% to 25%). In all regions of the state and across racial andethnic groups, again, people are most likely to say that one-party rule makes no difference.“At this time, the California Governor is a Democrat and the California legislature is controlled by theDemocrats. In terms of public policymaking, do you think that it is a good thing or a bad thing to have theGovernor and the California Legislature from the same party, or does it make no difference?”RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySF BayAreaLos AngelesOther SouthernCaliforniaLatinoGood thing 30% 23% 36% 33% 26% 36d thing1923171622 8No difference475043464751Don't know, it depends 4 4 4 5 5 5 California State Government- 18 -Policy InfluenceWhen they consider the forces that influence public policy, Californians evidently would like tosee a shift in the balance of power. Currently they believe that the Legislature (37%) has moreinfluence than the Governor (33%) or the initiative process (20%).San Francisco Bay area residents are the least likely to say that the Governor has the mostinfluence (27%). Latinos are the most likely to say that the Governor (44%) has the most influence,while non-Hispanic whites more often mention the Legislature (40%). Democrats are equally likelyto say that the Governor or the Legislature have the most power over public policy (34% to 36%)while Republicans (42% to 29%) and independent voters (40% to 33%) are more likely to say that theGovernor is more powerful than the Legislature. Those who are not registered to vote are also morelikely to believe that the Governor is more important than the Legislature (39% to 30%).However, the perceived status quo is not what most Californians would prefer. Forty-twopercent would like the initiative process to have the most influence on public policy. Fewer mentionthe Legislature (30%) as their top choice for state policy influence and even fewer name the Governor(21%).The initiative process draws its greatest support from two regions with very different politicalprofiles—the San Francisco Bay area and the Southern California suburban region. Moreover, theinitiative process is the top choice for independent voters (48%), Republicans (45%), Democrats(42%), and those who are not registered to vote (35%). Latinos want the Governor (37%) to have moreinfluence than initiatives (32%) or the Legislature (21%). However, non-Hispanic whites opt forinitiatives (46%) over the Legislature (34%) or the Governor (15%).RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySFBayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaLatino“In California state government today, which of thefollowing do you think has the most influence over publicpolicy?”The governor 33% 35% 27% 36% 33% 44%The legislature373940343627Initiatives on the state ballot201623192320Other answer 2 2 3 2 2 2Don’t know 8 8 7 9 6 7“Which of the following would you prefer to have the mostinfluence over public policy in California StateGovernment?”The governor 21% 24% 16% 26% 18% 37%The legislature30293228 3121Initiatives on the state ballot424046384632Other answer 2 2 2 1 1 1Don’t know 5 5 4 7 4 9 California State Government- 19 -News Stories About State GovernmentAbout one in three Californians pays close attention to news stories about the Governor andCalifornia Legislature, but only 6 percent say they very closely follow this type of news. Two in threeadult residents pay little or no attention to state government news.By contrast, more Californians (48%) say they are very closely or fairly closely following newsabout the presidential election than about their state government.There is slightly more attention to news about the Governor and State Legislature in theCentral Valley than elsewhere in the state. Latinos are less likely than non-Hispanic whites to saythey very closely or fairly closely follow this news (33% to 40%).Democrats (42%) and Republicans (43%) are more likely than independents (31%) and thosewho are not registered to vote (26%) to follow state government news at least fairly closely. Still,fewer than one in 10 in any voter group is avid for state government news.There are large differences across age groups. Only 28 percent of 18 to 34 year olds either veryclosely or fairly closely follow state government news, compared to 38 percent of 35 to 54 year olds,and 49 percent of those 55 and older.These results provide a benchmark for monitoring trends over time in the California public’sattention to news about the Governor and State Legislature. “How closely have you been following the news stories aboutthe Governor and California Legislature?”RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySF BayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaLatinoVery closely 6% 5% 5% 8% 6% 8irly closely313733283025Not too closely454547454548Not at all closely171315191818Don't know 1 0 0 0 1 1 - 21 -California in the New MillenniumPopulation Today and in 2020Californians lack a common perception about the current population and future growth of theirstate. California currently has about 34 million residents, but only 13 percent of Californians placetoday’s state population within the 30 million-to-35 million range. Almost half of the residents thinkthat the state's population is below 30 million, one in five believe it is more than 35 million, and 22percent admit they don't know.Most have a perception of the state's population that is very dated. The state's populationreached 10.6 million in 1950, 20 million in 1970, and 29.9 million in 1990. Yet, 22 percent ofresidents think that the state has 10 million or fewer inhabitants today, and 24 percent say thatbetween 11 million and 29 million people live in California.When asked for their best guess about California's population in 2020, the survey respondentsgave widely varying and some highly unlikely estimates. The California Department of Finance(DOF) estimates 45 million residents in 2020. Only 10 percent of Californians expect the state'spopulation to be between 40 million and 49 million. Twenty-seven percent expect the population tobe under 30 million, which is smaller than the California population today. Twenty-two percentexpect the state's population to reach 60 million or more by the year 2020, while current CaliforniaDOF forecasts do not put the state's population at that level before 2040. Again, about one in fouradmit that they don't know what to expect for California's population in the year 2020.To put these results further in perspective, consider how many Californians have a grasp onboth current population and future projections. Only 4 percent say the state population is between30 million and 35 million today and will be between 40 million and 49 million in 2020."Could you tell me what the state of California’s population is today?”“What do you think the state of California’s population will be in 2020?"(All Adults)CaliforniaPopulationTodayCaliforniaPopulationin 202010 million or under 22% 10-19 million 8 620-29 million161130-35 million13 836-39 million 1 140-49 million 41050-59 million 4 860 million or more1022Don’t know2224 California in the New Millennium- 22 -Regional Conditions in 2020Looking ahead to life in their region in the year 2020, Californians see cause for both hope andconcern. Large majorities of Californians think that the public education system will improve (63%),that race and ethnic relations will improve (61%), and that job opportunities and economic conditions(60%) will improve in their regions. However, large majorities also believe that the gap between richand poor will grow (72%), that the quality of the natural environment will worsen (60%), and thatthe crime rate will increase (55%) in their regions.Expectations for the year 2020 differ significantly by region. For example, San Francisco Bay Arearesidents are the most likely to think that race relations will improve (66%) and that the crime rate willdecline (47%). Central Valley residents are the most likely to think that the crime rate will increase(60%), and they are more likely to believe that the public education system will improve (70%).Latinos and non-Hispanic whites have different views about future conditions in their regions.Latinos are more likely to think that the public education system will improve (70% to 62%), that thequality of the natural environment will improve (42% to 36%), and that the gap between the rich andthe poor will get smaller (33% to 19%). Latinos and non-Hispanic whites have similar expectationson the issues of improving race and ethnic relations, decreasing the crime rate, and improving jobopportunities and economic conditions.There are also age and income differences in perceptions of life in 2020. Younger Californiansare more likely than those over 35 to think that race relations will improve, but younger people aremore likely to think the crime rate will increase and the quality of the natural environment will getworse. Higher-income residents are more likely than others to believe that the gap between rich andpoor will grow but that economic conditions and job opportunities will also improve in the year 2020.Those who say that the state’s population in 2020 will reach the predicted 40 million to 49million mark are more likely than others to believe that the income gap will grow (82%), and theyare less likely (50%) to believe that race and ethnic relations will improve in their regions. California in the New Millennium- 23 -"Looking ahead to the year 2020, which is more likely to happen in your region?"RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySF BayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaLatinoThe public education system will …Improve 63% 70% 62% 62% 61% 70%Get worse342734343627Neither/no change 1 2 1 2 1 1Don’t know 2 1 3 2 2 2Race and ethnic relations will …Improve 61% 59% 66% 59% 61% 62Get worse343529373332Neither/no change 3 3 3 2 4 3Don’t know 2 3 2 2 2 3Job opportunities and economicconditions will …Improve 60% 57% 62% 58% 62% 59%Get worse353832363436Neither/no Change 3 3 4 3 2 4Don’t know 2 2 2 3 2 1The gap between rich and poor will …Grow 72% 70% 76% 72% 71% 60%Get smaller232621232433Neither/no change 3 3 2 4 3 5Don’t know 2 1 1 1 2 2The quality of the natural environmentwill …Improve 37% 35% 37% 41% 35% 42%Get worse606259566255Neither/no change 2 2 4 2 2 2Don’t know 1 1 0 1 1 1The crime rate will …Increase 55% 60% 48% 55% 57% 56crease413647404040Neither/no change 2 2 3 3 1 2Don’t know 2 2 2 2 2 2 California in the New Millennium- 24 -Overall OutlookEven though they have mixed expectations about life in their regions, many Californians arepessimistic about the long-term outlook for the state. Forty-three percent expect California to be aworse place to live in the year 2020 than it is today, while 25 percent think it will be a better place.This amounts to an 18-point gap between pessimists and optimists. Thirty percent expect no change. In every major region, those expecting that California will be a better place to live areoutnumbered by those expecting things will get worse. There are no differences across age groups.Once again, Latinos are more optimistic about the future than non-Hispanic whites. Latinos areequally likely to say that California will be a better place (34%), a worse place (31%), or beunchanged (33%) in 2020. In contrast, most non-Hispanic whites think California will be a worseplace (48%) rather than a better place (21%) in 2020, while 29 percent expect no change.Those who see California in 2020 as a worse place to live overwhelmingly believe that theincome gap will grow (87%), that crime will increase (74%), and that the quality of the naturalenvironment will get worse (75%) in their regions. Most of those who think California will be a betterplace to live by the year 2020 expect to see improvements in the public education system (87%),increases in job opportunities (82%), and improvements in race and ethnic relations (83%).Pessimism is greatest among those with the most accurate sense of the state's current andfuture population. Most who estimate that today’s state population is between 30 million and 35million say that California will be a worse place rather than a better place to live in the future (51%to 19%). And of those who think the state’s population in 2020 will reach 40 million to 49 million,most believe the state will be a worse rather than a better place to live (52% to 16%)."Overall, do you think that in 2020 California will be a better place to live than it is nowor a worse place to live than it is now, or will there be no change?"RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySF BayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaLatinoBetter place 25% 24% 21% 26% 25% 34%Worse place434442394631No change303034332733Don't know 2 2 3 2 2 2The Y2K BugWith the much-ballyhooed Y2K computer bug now only weeks away from a reality test,Californians generally dismiss the probability that it will significantly affect their lives. Only 8percent think that the Y2K bug will cause major problems, while two in three expect some minorproblems from millennial computer glitches. When compared to the nation as a whole, according to arecent NSF/USA Today Poll, Californians are more likely to say they expect no Y2K problems (24%to 14%). California in the New Millennium- 25 -Nevertheless, many Californians are still planning to take precautions against computerfailures. Four in 10 plan to stockpile food and water and one in three will withdraw cash from thebank. At the same time, as further evidence that they expect only minor problems, few are planningon having “a lot” of food, water, or money on hand for the new millennium. Californians are as likelyas the nation to plan to stockpile food and water (41% to 40%).The only regional difference is that San Francisco Bay Area residents will be less likely thanothers to stockpile food and water (66% to 57%). There are significant differences between Latinosand non-Hispanic whites. Latinos are more likely than non-Hispanic whites to think that Y2K willcause major problems (16% to 4%). Their heightened concerns are reflected by the fact that Latinosare more likely than non-Hispanic whites to say that they will stockpile a lot food and water (23% to4%) and withdraw a lot of cash (14% to 4%). Those with higher incomes and educations are lessconcerned about Y2K problems and less likely to say they plan to stockpile food, water, and cash.Those who are closest to computers are not very worried up the Y2K bug. Of those who saythey often use computers and the Internet, only one in 20 predict major Y2K problems, while sevenin 10 expect minor problems, and one in four think there will be no problems at all. Moreover, two inthree say they will not stockpile food and water or take out extra cash as Y2K precautions.RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySF BayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaLatino“Do you think the Y2K issue willcause…”Major problems 8% 7% 7% 9% 7% 16%Minor problems676766656860No problems at all242525242421Don’t know 1 1 2 2 1 3“As a Y2K precaution, do you plan tostockpile food and water?”Yes, a lot 9% 10% 5% 11% 7% 23%Yes, some323128362839No585966516334Don’t know 1 0 1 2 2 4“As a Y2K precaution, do you plan towithdraw cash from the bank?”Yes, a lot 7% 6% 6% 7% 7% 14%Yes, some292630302631No636662616654Don’t know 1 2 2 2 1 1 - 27 -Political, Social, and Economic TrendsJob Performance Ratings for Federal OfficialsAs President Clinton approaches his final year in office, most Californians continue to give himhigh marks for his job performance. They are much less generous in their ratings of the U.S.Congress.Fifty-five percent say President Clinton is doing an excellent or good job in office. That is exactlythe same rating he received in our September survey and very similar to the ratings he received inDecember 1998 (59%). The President's ratings, however, are sharply different by party. MostDemocrats (72%) and independent voters (52%), but few Republicans (28%), give him excellent orgood ratings. The party differences correspond with higher job performance ratings in Los AngelesCounty (62%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (61%) than in the rest of Southern California (49%) orthe Central Valley (45%). President Clinton gets much higher job performance ratings from Latinos(71%) than from non-Hispanic whites (50%).In contrast, only 35 percent of Californians give the U.S. Congress excellent or good marks.However, this is higher than the ratings Congress received in September (26%), and similar to therating Congress received in May (33%), October (39%), and December (33%) of 1998 during theClinton impeachment by the House of Representatives and the Senate trial. The Congressionalratings do not vary much by either party or region, but approval ratings are higher among Latinos(46%) than among non-Hispanic whites (32%)."How do you rate the job performance of ..."(All Adults)President ClintonU.S. CongressOct 98Dec 98Sep 99Dec 99Oct 98Dec 98Sep 99Dec 99Excellent 26% 26% 16% 18% 5% 4% 2% 5%Good3433393734292430Fair1920272540424844Poor2120181919222118Don't know 0 1 0 1 2 3 5 3 Political, Social, and Economic Trends- 28 -Mood of the StateIn contrast to opinions about life in California in the year 2020, seen earlier, Californians remainoptimistic about the current state of their state. Sixty-two percent say that things are going in theright direction in California, while 31 percent think that things are going in the wrong direction. Thepositive sentiments today are similar to those in last September’s survey (61%), and in the survey ayear ago in December 1998 (63%). The mood is brighter in the San Francisco Bay Area than in otherregions, and higher among Latinos than among non-Hispanic whites (67% to 60%). Attitudes areuniformly positive across age, income, gender, and political groups.The state's residents are also very bullish about the California economy in the next year. Thosewho expect good times (76%) outnumber those who expect bad times (19%) by nearly four to one. Themood varies across the state's major regions, with those living in the San Francisco Bay Area themost optimistic (83%) and those living in the Central Valley the least optimistic (66%). Latinos(68%) are less likely than non-Hispanic whites (78%) to expect good economic times in the next year.The vast majority in all age, income, and racial and ethnic groups are optimistic about the state’seconomy in 2000."Do you think things in California are generally goingin the right direction or the wrong direction?"RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySF BayAreaLos AngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaLatinoRight direction 62% 57% 67% 61% 62% 67%Wrong direction313624313225Don't know 7 7 9 8 6 8"Do you think that during the next 12 months we willhave good times financially or bad times?"RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySF BayAreaLos AngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaLatinoGood times 76% 66% 83% 72% 80% 68d times192812221527Don't know 5 6 5 6 5 5 Political, Social, and Economic Trends- 29 -Computers and the InternetHow pervasive is computer and Internet use in the state? Three in four Californians have useda computer, while 55 percent say they "often" use a computer at home, school, or work. San FranciscoBay Area residents (65%) are more likely than others to be frequent computer users. With regard tofrequent computer use, there is a large "digital divide" across race and ethic groups. Specifically,Latinos are much less likely than non-Hispanic whites to use a computer on a frequent basis (37% to59%). Frequent computer use increases with higher household income: For instance, 38 percent ofthose with incomes under $40,000 often use computers, compared to 82 percent with incomes of$80,000 or more. Frequent computer use is highly evident among those 18 to 54 (63%) and much lesscommon among those 55 and older (33%). Six in 10 Californians have used the Internet, while 43 percent say they "often" go on line. TheSan Francisco Bay Area (52%) leads all other regions in frequent use of the Internet. As with overallcomputer usage, Latinos lag far behind non-Hispanic whites in frequent use of the Internet (22% to50%). Frequent Internet use increases with higher household income: For instance, 26 percent ofthose with household incomes under $40,000 often use it, compared to 72 percent of those withincomes of $80,000 or more. Frequent Internet use is found among half of the adult residents whoare 18 to 54 (50%), while it is more rare among those who are 55 and older (25%)."Do you yourself ever use a computer at home, at work, or at school?"RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySF BayAreaLos AngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaLatinoYes, often 55% 51% 65% 51% 56% 37%Yes, sometimes212119222230No242816272233"Do you ever go on line to access the Internet or World-Wide Web?”RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySF BayAreaLos AngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaLatinoYes, often 43% 37% 52% 37% 46% 22%Yes, sometimes182019162020No151513191225Don't useComputers242816282233 Political, Social, and Economic Trends- 30 -Internet PoliticsThe Internet has great potential as a source of information and news about politics. However, ithas not yet become a major source. One in five Californians have gone on-line to gather news andinformation about politics and elections, although only 7 percent say they often "surf the net" for thispurpose. Thirty-seven percent of those who often or sometimes use the Internet have searched forpolitical and election news.There are no major differences across political parties. As would be expected, voters are morelikely than those not registered to vote to look to the net for political information (24% to 14%).Latinos are less likely than non-Hispanic whites to use the Internet to gather political information(15% to 24%). Gathering political news and information from the Internet is more common amongthose who are 18 to 54 (25%) than those who are 55 and older (13%). This type of Internet activity islower among those with incomes under $40,000 (13%) than with those earning $80,000 or more (37%).One in 11 Californians has thus far visited the web sites of presidential candidates, and only 1percent often use the Internet for this purpose. Fifteen percent of Internet users have looked at theweb sites. Once again, there are differences between voters and those who are not registered to voteand little variation across political parties. Few Latinos (8%) and non-Hispanic whites (9%) use theInternet to visit the web sites of presidential candidates. Similarly, small numbers of visits to thesesites are reported across all age and income groups.These results are intended to provide “benchmark” data. The question will be repeated nextyear to monitor trends in political information gathering on the Internet during the 2000 election."Do you ever go on-line to ...”Party RegistrationAllAdultsDemocratRepublicanOtherNotRegisteredLatino“Get news and information about politicsand elections?”Yes, often 7% 7% 6% 8% 5% 5%Yes, sometimes15142017 910No403841483727Don't use Internet384133274958“To visit the web sites of the presidentialcandidates?”Yes, often 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 3%Yes, sometimes 8 8 711 5 5No534960604534Don't use Internet384132284958 Political, Social, and Economic Trends- 31 -Internet VotingAlthough there is some groundswell of interest in voting over the Internet, Californians are splitover the issue. Slim majorities of Democrats (50%), independents (52%), and residents who are notregistered to vote (53%) are in favor of Internet voting. A majority of Republicans are opposed toallowing voting over the Internet (56%). Despite their comparative lack of connection with theInternet, Latinos favor Internet voting more than non-Hispanic whites (50% to 45%).Even among Internet users, there is a lack of overwhelming support for Internet voting.Internet users (54%) are more likely than nonusers (37%) to support Internet voting. Still, almosthalf of the Internet users are opposed or undecided.Demographic trends reflect Internet use. Public support for allowing voting over the Internet ishighest among 18 to 34 year olds (59%) and 35 to 54 year olds (50%), but there is little support forInternet voting among those 55 and older (27%). There is less support for Internet voting amongthose with incomes under $80,000 (47%) than among those with incomes of $80,000 or more (57%).If Internet voting were made available, 30 percent of those surveyed say they would prefer thismethod rather than the more traditional ballot box and absentee ballot options. Democrats (29%)and Republicans (24%) are less likely to prefer voting over the Internet than independent and otherparty voters (36%) and those who are not registered to vote (37%). Latinos (27%) and non-Hispanicwhites (29%) show an equal preference for voting over the Internet.Internet users are as likely to prefer the Internet (40%) as the ballot box (41%), while nonusersof the Internet overwhelmingly would opt for the ballot box (54%) followed by absentee ballots (31%).Again, demographic trends follow Internet use. The preference for voting over the Internet is muchhigher among those 18 to 34 (42%) and 35 to 54 (32%) than among those 55 and older (10%). Thosewith incomes under $40,000 (25%) are much less likely than those with incomes of $80,000 or more(43%) to say they would prefer to vote over the Internet.Party RegistrationAllAdultsDemocratRepublicanOtherNotRegisteredLatino“Do you favor or oppose a system thatwould allow Californians to vote inelections over the Internet?”Favor47% 50% 40% 52% 53% 50%Oppose484556444145Don’t know 5 5 4 4 6 5“If you had the choice, would you prefer tovote in elections at the ballot box, byabsentee mail ballot, or over the Internet?”Ballot box46% 47% 49% 39% 47sentee ballot232326192123Internet302924363727Don’t know 1 1 1 03 3 - 33 -Survey MethodologyThe PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, a senior fellow at the Public PolicyInstitute of California, with research assistance from Jonathan Cohen and Christopher Hoene. Thefindings of this survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,009 California adult residentsinterviewed from November 29 to December 8, 1999. Interviewing took place on weekend days andweekday nights, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers, ensuring thatboth listed and unlisted telephone numbers were called. All telephone exchanges in California wereeligible for calling. Telephone numbers in the survey sample were called up to five times to increasethe likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent(18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing by using the “last birthday method” to avoidbiases in age and gender. Each interview took an average of 20 minutes to complete. Interviewingwas conducted in English or Spanish. Maria Tello translated the survey into Spanish.We used recent U.S. Census and state figures to compare the demographic characteristics of thesurvey sample with characteristics of California's adult population. The survey sample was closelycomparable to U.S. Census and state figures. The survey data in this report were statisticallyweighted to account for any demographic differences.The sampling error for the total sample of 2,009 adults is +/- 2 percent at the 95 percentconfidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 2 percentage pointsof what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroupsis larger. The sampling error for the 1,529 registered voters is +/- 2.5% and for the 949 likely votersis +/- 3.5%. Sampling error is just one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may alsobe affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing.Throughout the report, we refer to four geographic regions. “Central Valley” includes Butte,Colusa, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta,Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “SF Bay Area” includes Alameda,Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties.“Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, and "Other Southern California" includes the mostlysuburban regions of Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. These four regionswere chosen for analysis because they are the major population centers of the state, accounting forapproximately 90 percent of the state population; moreover, the growth of the Central Valley and“Other Southern California” regions have given them increasing political significance.We present specific results for Latinos because they account for about 24 percent of the state'sadult population and constitute one of the fastest growing voter groups. For likely voters, thesample sizes for the African American and Asian subgroups are not large enough for separatestatistical analysis. We contrast the opinions of Democrats and Republicans with "other" or“independent” registered voters. This third category includes those who are registered to vote as“decline to state” as well as a fewer number who say they are members of other political parties.In some cases we compare PPIC Statewide Survey responses to responses recorded in nationalsurveys conducted by the Pew Research Center in 1998 and 1999 and the National ScienceFoundation/USA Today in 1999. We adapted questions about state government asked by the FloridaAnnual Policy Survey in 1997 and the Texas Poll in 1998. We used 1998 and 1999 PPIC StatewideSurveys to analyze trends over time in California. - 35 - PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 8 2,009 CALIFORNIA ADULT RESIDENTS; ENGLISH AND SPANISH MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 2% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE [Responses recorded for first 15 questions are from likely voters. All other responses are from all adults.]1. In March 2000, California will hold an open primary. That means the voters will be able to vote for anyone they choose, regardless of the candidate’s party. If the presidential primary were held today, who would you vote for? (rotate names, then ask, “or someone else”) 28%George W. Bush, Republican 24Al Gore, Democrat 15Bill Bradley, Democrat 9John McCain, Republican 3Steve Forbes, Republican 2Gary Bauer, Republican 1Orrin Hatch, Republican 1Alan Keyes, Republican 1Donald Trump, Reform Party 2someone else (specify) 14don't know 2. If these were the candidates in the presidential election in November 2000, who would you vote for? (rotate) 48%George W. Bush, Republican 44Al Gore, Democrat 8don't know 3. If these were the candidates in the presidential election in November 2000, who would you vote for? (rotate) 46%George W. Bush, Republican 44Bill Bradley, Democrat 10don't know 4. People have different ideas about the qualifications they want when they vote for presidential candidates. Which of these is most important to you? Would it be … (rotate) 58%the candidates’ stands on the issues 22the candidates’ character 13the candidates’ experience 5the candidates’ political party 1other 1don't know, it depends5. Thinking about the presidential candidates and what you learn about them, how important is it for you to learn about how well a candidate connects with people like you–very important, somewhat important, or not important? 53%very important 34somewhat important 11not important 2don't know 6. If the March 2000 primary election for the U.S. Senate were being held today, who would you vote for? (rotate names, then ask, “or someone else”) 50%Dianne Feinstein, Democrat 12Tom Campbell, Republican 3Ray Haynes, Republican 2Bill Horn, Republican 0J.P. Gough, Republican 3someone else (specify) 30don't know 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Dianne Feinstein is doing as a U.S. Senator? 58%approve 33disapprove 9don't know 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the job that the Republican leaders in Congress are doing? 37%approve 55disapprove 8don't know 9. Proposition 22, the “Limit on Marriage” initiative on the March 2000 ballot, adds a provision to the family code providing that only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 22? 58%yes 38no 4don't know - 36 - 10. The Governor recently signed state legislation giving recognition and rights to domestic partnerships for gays and lesbians, including the establishment of a statewide registry for domestic partnerships, providing hospital visitation rights for domestic partners, and providing health benefits for the domestic partners of state employees. Do you approve or disapprove of this state legislation? 57%approve 39disapprove 4don't know 11. The Governor recently signed state legislation that makes it unlawful to discriminate against someone in employment or housing based on the person’s sexual orientation. Do you approve or disapprove of this state legislation? 78%approve 20disapprove 2don't know 12. Proposition 26, the “School Facilities, Local Majority Vote” initiative on the March 2000 ballot, would authorize school and community college districts and county education offices to issue bonds for construction, rehabilitation, or replacement of school facilities if approved by a simple majority of local voters. Currently, a two- thirds majority is required to pass local school bonds. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 26? 64%yes 31no 5don't know 13. Suppose your local school district had a bond measure on the March 2000 ballot to pay for school construction projects. Would you vote yes or no? 72%yes 22no 6don't know, depends 14. Under Proposition 13, a two-thirds vote at the ballot box is required to pass any local special tax increases. Do you favor or oppose allowing local special tax increases to pass with a simple majority instead of a two-thirds vote? 27vor 69oppose 4don't know15. On another topic, how closely have you been following the news stories about candidates for the 2000 presidential election–very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 16%very closely 52fairly closely 26not too closely 6not at all closely 0don't know 16. Which one issue facing California today do you think is most important for the Governor and state legislature to work on in 2000? (code don’t read) 28%schools, education 8immigration, illegal immigration 7crime, gangs 5jobs, the economy 5health care, HMO reform 4taxes 4 poverty, the poor, the homeless, welfare 3environment, pollution 3traffic and transportation 2housing costs, housing availability 2growth, overpopulation 2race relations, ethnic tensions 1state government, governor, legislature 1state budget 1state and local finance 1government regulations 1drugs 1water 1guns, gun control 3other 17don't know 17. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 62%right direction 31wrong direction 7don't know 18. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 76%good times 19bad times 5don't know - 37 - 19. How do you rate the job performance of president Bill Clinton at this time–excellent, good, fair, or poor? 18%excellent 37good 25fair 19poor 1don't know 20. How do you rate the job performance of the U.S. Congress at this time? 5%excellent 30good 44fair 18poor 3don't know 21. How do you rate the job performance of Governor Gray Davis at this time? 9%excellent 42good 31fair 12poor 6don't know 22. How do you rate the job performance of the California legislature at this time? 3%excellent 34good 41fair 13poor 9don't know 23. How closely have you been following the news stories about the Governor and California legislature–very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 6%very closely 31fairly closely 45not too closely 17not at all closely 1don't know 24. Do you happen to know if California Governor Gray Davis is (a) a Democrat or (b) a Republican? (rotate a and b) 69mocrat 12Republican 19don't know25. Both houses of the California legislature are controlled by the same party. Do you happen to know if the California legislature is controlled by the (a) the Democrats or (b) the Republicans? (rotate a and b) 42mocrats 23Republicans 35don't know 26. We hear a lot of talk these days about liberals and conservatives. Would you consider Governor Gray Davis to be politically very liberal, somewhat liberal, middle-of-the-road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative? 9%very liberal 26somewhat liberal 33middle-of-the-road 18somewhat conservative 6very conservative 8don't know 27. And would you consider the leadership in the California legislature to be politically very liberal, somewhat liberal, middle-of-the-road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative? 9%very liberal 25somewhat liberal 31middle-of-the-road 19somewhat conservative 5very conservative 11don't know 28. At this time, the California Governor is a Democrat and the California legislature is controlled by the Democrats. In terms of public policymaking, do you think that it is a good thing or a bad thing to have the Governor and the California legislature from the same party, or does it make no difference? 30%good thing 19bad thing 47no difference 2it depends 2don't know 29. In California state government today, which of the following do you think has the most influence over public policy? (rotate) 33%the Governor 37the legislature 20initiatives on the state ballot 2other 8don't know - 38 - 30. Which of the following would you prefer to have the most influence over public policy in California state government? (rotate) 21%the Governor 30the legislature 42initiatives on the state ballot 2other 5don't know 31. Could you tell me what the state of California's population is today–in millions (just your best guess). (code directly to the nearest million) 22%under 10 million 811-19 million 1620-29 million 1330-35 million 136-39 million 440-49 million 450-59 million 1060 million or more 22don’t know 32. And could you tell me what you think the state of California's population will be about 20 years from now-that is, in 2020-in millions. (code directly to the nearest million) 10%under 10 million 611-19 million 1120-29 million 830-35 million 136-39 million 1040-49 million 850-59 million 2260 million or more 24don’t know Looking ahead to the year 2020, as I read each of the following pairs, please tell me which is more likely to happen in your region. (rotate questions 33-38) 33. (a) race and ethnic relations will improve or (b) race and ethnic relations will get worse? (rotate) 61%improve 34get worse 3neither/no change (code don't read) 2don't know 34. (a) the crime rate will increase or (b) the crime rate will decrease? (rotate) 55%increase 41decrease 2neither/no change (code don't read) 2don't know35. (a) the public education system will improve or (b) the public education system will get worse? (rotate) 63%improve 34get worse 1neither/no change (code don't read) 2don't know 36. (a) the gap between rich and poor will grow or (b) the gap between rich and poor will get smaller? (rotate) 72%grow 23get smaller 3neither/no change (code don't read) 2don't know 37. (a) the quality of the natural environment will improve or (b) the quality of the natural environment will get worse? (rotate) 37%improve 60get worse 2neither/no change (code don't read) 1don't know 38. (a) job opportunities and economic conditions will improve or (b) job opportunities and economic conditions will get worse? (rotate) 60%improve 35get worse 3neither/no change (code don't read) 2don't know 39. Overall, do you think that in 2020 California will be a better place to live than it is now or a worse place to live than it is now, or will there be no change? 25tter place 43worse place 30no change 2don't know 40. Some computers may have trouble operating when we reach the year 2000 because of a programming issue known as Y2K. Do you think the Y2K issue will cause major problems, minor problems, or no problems at all? 8%major problems 67minor problems 24no problems at all 1don't know 41. As a Y2K precaution, do you plan to stockpile food and water? (if yes: Is that a lot or some?) 9%yes, a lot 32yes, some 58no 1don't know - 39 - 42. As a Y2K precaution, do you plan to withdraw cash from the bank? (if yes: Is that a lot or some?) 7%yes, a lot 29yes, some 63no 1don't know 43. Some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain you are registered to vote? (if yes: Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or independent?) 35%yes, Democrat 28yes, Republican 3yes, other party 12yes, independent 22no, not registered 44. Would you consider yourself to be politically very liberal, somewhat liberal, middle-of-the-road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative? 10%very liberal 20somewhat liberal 33middle-of-the-road 25somewhat conservative 9very conservative 3don't know 45. Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics-a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 14%great deal 46fair amount 33only a little 7none 0don't know 46. Would you say you follow what’s going on in government and public affairs most of the time, some of the time, only now and then, hardly ever, or never? 31%most of the time 38some of the time 21only now and then 7hardly ever 3never 0don't know 47. How often would you say you vote-always, nearly always, part of the time, seldom, or never? 44%always 24nearly always 12part of the time 7seldom 13never 0don't know48. How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right? Just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time? 5%just about always 26most of the time 63only some of the time 5never (code don’t read) 1don't know 49. Do you yourself ever use a computer at home, at work, or at school? (if yes: Do you do this often or only sometimes?) 55%yes, often (ask q. 50) 21yes, sometimes (ask q. 50) 24no (skip to q.53) 50. Do you ever go on line to access the Internet or World Wide Web or to send or receive e-mail? (if yes: Do you do this often or only sometimes?) 43%yes, often (ask q. 51) 18yes, sometimes (ask q. 51) 15no (skip to q. 53) 24don’t use a computer (skip to q. 53) 51. Do you ever go on line to get news and information about California politics and elections? (if yes: Is that often or only sometimes?) 7%yes, often 15yes, sometimes 40no 38don’t use Internet/computer 52. Do you ever go on line to visit the web sites of the presidential candidates? (if yes: is that often or only sometimes?) 1%yes, often 8yes, sometimes 53no 38don’t use Internet/computer 53. Do you favor or oppose a system that allowed Californians to vote in elections over the Internet? 47vor 48oppose 5don’t know 54. If you had the choice, would you prefer to vote in elections (a) at the ballot box, (b) by absentee mail ballot, or (c) over the Internet? (rotate a, b, c) 46llot box 30Internet 23absentee ballot 1don’t know [55-63. Demographic questions] - 40 - PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEYAdvisory CommitteeRuben BarralesPresidentJoint Venture – Silicon Valley NetworkAngela BlackwellPresidentPolicy LinkNick BollmanSenior Program DirectorThe James Irvine FoundationMollyann BrodieVice PresidentKaiser Family FoundationMatt FongAttorneySheppard MullinWilliam HauckPresidentCalifornia Business RoundtableSherry Bebitch JeffeSenior AssociateClaremont Graduate UniversityMonica LozanoAssociate Publisher and Executive EditorLa OpiniónJerry LubenowDirector of PublicationsInstitute of Governmental StudiesUniversity of California, BerkeleyDonna LucasPresidentNelson CommunicationsMax NeimanDirectorCenter for Social andBehavioral ResearchUniversity of California,RiversideJerry RobertsManaging EditorSan Francisco ChronicleDan RosenheimNews DirectorKRON-TVRichard SchlosbergPresidentThe David and LucilePackard FoundationCarol StogsdillSenior Vice PresidentAPCO AssociatesCathy TaylorEditorial Page EditorOrange County RegisterSteven TobenProgram OfficerThe William and FloraHewlett FoundationRaymond L. WatsonVice Chairman of the BoardThe Irvine CompanyCarol WhitesidePresidentGreat Valley Center"
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string(86156) "PPIC Statewide Survey:Californians and Their GovernmentMark BaldassareSenior Fellow and Survey DirectorDecember 1999PublicPolicyInstituteofCalifornia The Public Policy Institute of California is a private, nonprofit research organizationestablished in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. The Institute conductsindependent, objective, nonpartisan research on the economic, social, and political issuesaffecting Californians. The Institute's goal is to raise public awareness of these issues andgive elected representatives and other public officials a more informed basis for developingpolicies and programs.Public Policy Institute of California500 Washington Street, Suite 800 • San Francisco, California 94111Telephone: (415) 291-4400 • Fax: (415) 291-4401info@ppic.org • www.ppic.org - i -PrefaceCalifornia is in the midst of historic changes that will profoundly affect its future. Tounderstand these changes and how they influence voters’ choices at the ballot box, PPIC isconducting a series of comprehensive statewide surveys on the theme of "Californians and TheirGovernment." This report presents the results of the third of these statewide surveys, which willcontinue up to the November 2000 election. The first survey in this series was conducted inSeptember. The second survey—a special edition that focused on the Central Valley—was conductedin November.The purpose of the PPIC Statewide Survey is to develop an in-depth profile of the social,economic, and political forces affecting California elections and public policy preferences. Thesurveys are intended to provide the public, the media, and policymakers with relevant, non-partisan,and advocacy-free information on the following:· What Californians know about government at all levels, how they rate elected officialsand public services, and what government actions they prefer.· The public’s interest in civic affairs and politics, their current and preferred informationsources, their attention to state political news, and their ratings of the media.· How growing regions and groups—such as the Central Valley, suburban regions, Latinos,and independent voters—affect the state’s elections and policy debates.· The political attitudes and perceptions that are tied to "voter distrust" of government andthe social, economic, and political factors that explain low voter turnout in stateelections.· The role of political, social, and economic attitudes in public support for citizens’initiatives and government reform proposals.Copies of the September or November reports or additional copies of this report may be orderedby calling (800) 232-5343 [mainland U.S.] or (415) 291-4415 [Canada, Hawaii, overseas]. - iii -ContentsPrefacei Press Releasev California 2000 Election1 California State Government13 California in the New Millennium21 Political, Social, and Economic Trends27 Survey Methodology33 Survey Questions and Results35 Survey Advisory Committee40 - v -Press ReleaseCALIFORNIANS HAVE SPLIT VISION FOR STATE IN NEW MILLENNIUMToday’s Optimism Fades When Residents Gaze Into Future;Bradley, McCain Pick Up Steam As March Primary NearsSAN FRANCISCO, California, December 14, 1999 — Bladerunner or techno-utopia? Despite boomconditions, Californians are surprisingly ambivalent about the future of their state, according to anew survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California.In the short term, Californians are bullish. Sixty-two percent say that the state is generally headedin the right direction, and three in four say they expect good financial times in the coming year.Californians are also more likely than the nation as a whole to believe that Y2K will create noproblems (24% to 14%).However, when state residents are asked to look ahead twenty years, evidence of a far more dividedvision emerges. In the year 2020, large majorities believe they are likely to see improvements in thepublic education system (63%), race relations (61%), and job opportunities and economic conditions(60%) in their regions. At the same time, substantial numbers of Californians also expect to see agrowing gap between rich and poor (72%), a decline in the quality of the environment (60%), and anincrease in the crime rate (55%). Higher income residents are more likely than others to say that theeconomy will improve, but they are also the most likely to say that the income gap will grow.Overall, more Californians are pessimistic than optimistic about the state’s long-term outlook. In2020, 43 percent expect the state to be a worse place to live than it is today, while 25 percent think itwill be a better place. Latinos are the exception, with slightly more believing that the state will be abetter place to live in 2020 than a worse place (34% to 31%).“Looking ahead to life in the new millennium, Californians see cause for hope but also for greatanxiety,” said PPIC Statewide Survey Director Mark Baldassare. “Although California is the locusof a booming new economy, concerns about quality of life and the perception of a widening gulfbetween haves and have-nots has led to deep uncertainty about the Golden State’s future.”Indeed, this uncertainty extends to a more fundamental confusion about the changing sociallandscape of the state. Most residents do not know the current population of the state (about 34million) and even fewer have a sense of what it will look like two decades from now (the Departmentof Finance estimates 45 million). Only four percent of Californians have a handle on the state’scurrent and future population projections. Interestingly, individuals who correctly estimate thestate’s current or future population also happen to be among the most pessimistic about California’scondition in the year 2020.Whose Vision?While they appear to be mostly satisfied with the status quo in the short term, Californians areclearly uncomfortable with the current balance of power in Sacramento. When residents are askedwho has the most influence over public policy in state government today, 37 percent name thelegislature, 33 percent the Governor, and 20 percent state ballot initiatives. When asked to describethe balance of power they prefer, many residents make clear that they would like to reserve the Press Release- vi -policy influence for themselves. Forty-two percent say they would like ballot initiatives to have themost influence, while 30 percent mention the legislature as their top choice, and 21 percent name theGovernor.Although they may prefer their vision to his, 51 percent of Californians still give Governor GrayDavis excellent or good marks. Only 37 percent say the state legislature is doing an excellent or goodjob. President Clinton’s job performance ratings remain unchanged since September, with 55percent of residents saying he is doing an excellent or good job. Californians are less pleased withthe performance of the U.S. Congress, but their excellent or good ratings have climbed nine pointssince hitting a low in September (from 26% to 35%).Underdogs Emerging as Political Forces in PrimaryAlthough they still trail far behind the leading presidential contenders in the March primary, BillBradley and Senator John McCain have made substantial gains since PPIC’s September survey.Both have more than doubled their support in California, with Bradley now receiving 15 percent andMcCain 9 percent among likely voters. Governor George W. Bush now holds a narrow lead over VicePresident Al Gore (28% to 24%) and has made strong gains against Gore among Latinos.In head-to-head general election match-ups, Bush finds himself in a statistical dead heat withBradley (46% to 44%). In September, Bush led Bradley by 13 percent. California voters continue toshow a slight preference for Bush over Gore in a head-to-head match-up (48% to 44%). Bush showsconsiderable strength in the Central Valley and in Southern California (excluding Los Angeles) —two crucial areas for Republicans. Both Gore and Bradley are running strong in the San FranciscoBay Area, but they lack majority support in the Democratic stronghold of Los Angeles County. Menfavor Bush over Gore and Bradley by more than 10 points, while women favor Gore and Bradley overBush by narrow margins.“With more than three months to go until the March primary, it seems we have the makings of acompetitive presidential contest in the state,” said Baldassare. “The majority of Californians arelooking for a candidate who can connect with people like them. There is clearly room for anunderdog who is willing to devote major energy and resources to getting to know people in this vastand diverse state.”In the race for U.S. Senate, incumbent Senator Dianne Feinstein is running strong with 50 percentsupport, while underdog challenger Congressman Tom Campbell receives 12 percent, and 30 percentof likely voters remain undecided. Feinstein and Campbell currently receive almost equal supportamong Republicans (20% to 21%). Feinstein is buoyed by strong job performance ratings: 58 percentapprove of her job as a U.S. Senator and 33 percent disapprove. Campbell’s chances could be hurt bythe fact that a greater number of Californians disapprove of the job performance of Republicanleaders in Congress than approve of it (55% to 37%).Internet Politics Still in InfancyOne in five Californians say they have surfed the net to gather news and information about politicsand elections, but only 7 percent say they often go on-line for this reason. However, there is reasonto believe that gathering political news and information on the Internet is a growing phenomenon:The practice is twice as common among younger residents (25% for those who are 18 to 24) thanamong older residents (13% for those 55 and older). Candidates have their work cut out for them if Press Release- vii -they hope to entice potential supporters to their web sites: Only 9 percent of Californians havevisited the web sites of presidential candidates, with just 1 percent saying they visit candidate sitesoften.Californians are split on the issue of Internet voting. Forty-seven percent favor a system that wouldallow state residents to vote in elections electronically, while 48 percent oppose such a system.Surprisingly, there is a lack of overwhelming support for Internet voting even among Internetregulars. Internet users are more likely than nonusers to support on-line voting (54% to 37%), butalmost half of the Internet’s savvy users are opposed or undecided. If they had a choice, 46% ofCalifornians say they would prefer to vote at their local polling place rather than by absentee ballot(23%) or over the Internet (30%).About the SurveyThe purpose of the PPIC Statewide Survey is to develop an in-depth profile of the social, economic,and political forces affecting California elections and public policy preferences. PPIC will conductlarge-scale public opinion surveys on a regular basis leading up to the November 2000 election.Findings are based on a telephone survey of 2,009 California adult residents interviewed fromNovember 29 to December 8, 1999. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish. The samplingerror for the total sample is +/- 2%. The sampling error for the 1,529 voters is +/- 2.5% and for the949 likely voters is +/- 3.5%. For additional information on survey methodology, see page 33.Dr. Mark Baldassare is a senior fellow at PPIC. He is founder and director of the Orange CountyAnnual Survey at UC Irvine. For over two decades, he has conducted surveys for major newsorganizations, including the Orange County Edition of the Los Angeles Times, the Orange CountyRegister, the San Francisco Chronicle, KCAL-TV, and KRON-TV. Dr. Baldassare is the author of aforthcoming book on the changing social and political landscape of California (expected in February2000).PPIC is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to objective, nonpartisan research on economic,social, and political issues that affect the lives of Californians. The Institute was established in 1994with an endowment from William R. Hewlett.### - 1 -California 2000 ElectionPresidential PrimaryThe presidential primary in California is becoming more competitive. Voters most likely to go tothe polls now give Texas Governor George W. Bush (28%) a narrow lead over Vice President Al Gore(24%), but the biggest change is that both Bill Bradley (15%) and Senator John McCain (9%) havemade substantial gains since September. Likely voters give little support to the other presidentialcandidates and 14 percent are undecided.Among Democratic voters, less than half (43 %) support Gore, and 23 percent support Bradley.Just over half (52 %) of Republican voters support Bush, compared to 12 percent for McCain.Independent voters are fairly evenly divided among Bush, Gore, and Bradley. Across regions, Goreleads Bush (33% to 16%) in the San Francisco Bay Area; they are tied in Los Angeles County (27ch); and Bush leads Gore (35% to 17%) in the rest of Southern California and in the Central Valley(32% to 21%). Latinos favor Gore over Bush by nine points (35% to 26%). Men favor Bush over Gore(29% to 20%), while women give equal support to Bush and Gore (27% each).Democrats' support for Gore and Bradley varies by gender. Gore is more likely to get the nodfrom Democratic women (47%) than from Democratic men (38%), while Bradley has more supportamong Democratic men (27%) than Democratic women (20%). Bush has equal support amongRepublican men (53%) and Republican women (52%), while McCain does better among Republicanmen (16%) than Republican women (8%).Since last December, Bush has gained voters (21% to 28%) while Gore has lost them (31% to24%). Bush’s support increased among Republicans (40% to 52%), while Gore’s support declinedamong Democrats (53% to 43%). Gore's support held steady only in the San Francisco Bay area,while Bush made gains in the Central Valley and Southern California. Among Latinos, Gore'ssupport dropped (50% to 35%), while Bush made gains (16% to 26%)."If the Presidential Primary were held today, who would you vote for?"Likely VotersDec 98Sep 99Dec 99George W. Bush 21% 27% 28%Al Gore312724Bill Bradley – 715John McCain – 4 9Steve Forbes 4 3 3Gary Bauer – 1 2Donald Trump – – 1Someone else *2517 4Don't know191414* In earlier surveys, “someone else” includes candidates who have since left the race. California 2000 Election- 2 -"If the Presidential Primary were held today, who would you vote for?"Likely Voters (Dec 99)PartyRegionLatinoDemRepOtherCentralValleySF BayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaGeorge W. Bush 9% 52% 18% 32% 16% 27% 35% 26%Al Gore43 3222133271735Bill Bradley23 5211220151417John McCain 61210 911 7 9 6Steve Forbes 1 5 2 4 0 2 5 1Gary Bauer 0 3 3 1 1 3 1 0Donald Trump 1 1 4 2 1 1 2 2Someone else 1 7 5 4 3 4 3 1Don't know16121515 15141412Leading Presidential CandidatesAlthough Democrats have an edge in California voter registration, it isn't evident when likelyvoters consider their choice in head-to-head general election match-ups between Bush and Bradleyor Gore. California voters favor Bush slightly over Gore (48% to 44%), if they were the presidentialcandidates in November 2000. This is unchanged from the September survey. However, Bush is nowin a statistical tie with Bradley (46% to 44%), given the margin of error for the survey. In September,Bush had a 13-point lead over Bradley.When matched against Bradley or Gore, Bush is supported by more than eight in 10Republicans, one in three independents, and one in six Democrats. Bradley and Gore both have thesupport of about three in four Democrats, half of the independents, and very few Republicans.Bush shows considerable strength in two key regions that Republicans need to win—the CentralValley and the Southern California region outside of Los Angeles. Both Gore and Bradley arerunning strong in the San Francisco Bay area. Both Democrats fall short of majority support in LosAngeles County, a region crucial to a Democrat’s success in statewide elections. In both hypotheticalmatch-ups, Bush would get the vote of about one in three Latinos, which is a decent showing givenrecent registration and voting trends among Latinos. A majority of Latino voters support both Goreand Bradley when matched against Bush.There are gender differences in presidential preferences, with men favoring Bush over Gore(52% to 40%), while women support Gore over Bush (48% to 44%). In a similar pattern, men alsofavor Bush over Bradley (51% to 41%), while women support Bradley over Bush (46% to 42%). California 2000 Election- 3 -"If these were the candidates in the Presidential Election inNovember 2000, who would you vote for?"Likely VotersDec 98Sep 99Dec 99George W. Bush 47% 49% 48%Al Gore454444Don't know 8 7 8George W. Bush – 51% 46%Bill Bradley –3844Don't know –1110Likely Voters (Dec 99)PartyRegionLatinoDemRepOtherCentralValleySF BayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaGeorge W. Bush 16% 87% 37% 58% 32% 43% 58% 33%Al Gore767483559493359Don't know 8 615 719 8 9 8George W. Bush 16% 84% 34% 54% 30% 44% 55% 38%Bill Bradley7110513659423853Don't know13 615101114 7 9Presidential Candidate QualificationsWhat qualifications matter most to voters when they choose among presidential candidates?Among likely voters, 58 percent say that a candidate's stands on the issues is the deciding factor. Twenty-two percent give the nod to a candidate's character, and 13 percent value experience in office the most.While stands on the issues is the top qualification for every voter group, a higher percent ofRepublicans (33%) and independents (22%) than Democrats (12%) give first place to the candidate'scharacter. Character is mentioned as a top priority more often in the Central Valley than elsewhere.Latinos are more likely than non-Hispanic whites to rate experience the highest (27% to 10%).Of the 13 percent of likely voters who say that experience is most important, Gore (42%) is favoredover Bush (19%) and Bradley (15%). Of the 22 percent who name character as their top priority, mostchoose Bush (41%) over Gore (11%) and Bradley (10%). Of the 58 percent who most value the candidate’sstands on the issues, support is divided between Bush (25%), Gore (24%), and Bradley (18%).Even though a majority rates “stands on the issues” as important, half of the likely voters also say itis "very important" for them to learn about how well a candidate connects with people like themselves.Democrats (60%) are more likely than Republicans (46%) or independents (51%) to place a high priorityon the “human side" of the candidates. Across regions, the candidate's connection with people is morehighly valued in Los Angeles than elsewhere. Latinos are much more likely than non-Hispanic whites(75% to 47%) to say it is very important for them to learn about how well a candidate connects with them. California 2000 Election - 4 - Stands on the issues 58% Character 22 Experience 13 Political party 5 Other, don't know 2 Likely Voters (Dec 99) PartyRegionLatino Dem Rep Other Stands on the Character 12 33 22 29 17 21 22 15 Experience 17 9 13 13 16 13 12 27 Political party 4 6 3 5 3 4 6 6 Other, don't know 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 "How important is it for you to learn about how well a candidate connect s with people like you?" Very important 53% Somewhat important 34 Not important 11 Don't know 2 Likely Voters (Dec 99) PartyRegionLatino Dem Rep Other Very important 60% 46% 51% 53% 50% 59% 49% 75% Somewhat important 28 42 31 33 37 29 37 16 Not important 10 11 15 11 10 11 14 8 Don't know 2 1 3 3 3 1 0 1 California 2000 Election- 5 -U.S. Senate RaceIn the open primary for the U.S. Senate seat, incumbent U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein has alarge lead over other candidates. In a race where there is currently no Democratic challenger, 50percent of likely voters would vote for Feinstein. Among the Republicans, Congressman TomCampbell leads the other three GOP candidates, but has only 12 percent of the total vote. Thirtypercent of voters are still undecided.Seventy-eight percent of Democrats say they would vote for Feinstein in the March Primary,while one in six are undecided. Almost half of the Republicans are undecided, while those who havemade up their minds favor Campbell over the other three GOP candidates. At this point, as manyRepublicans favor Democratic Senator Feinstein as support Campbell. Half of the independents saythey will vote for Feinstein, while 11 percent favor Campbell and three in 10 are undecided.Feinstein has similar support among men (48%) and women (52%), while Campbell also hasequal support among men (13%) and women (10%). Within the parties, Democratic men (77%) andDemocratic women (79%) show equal support for Feinstein, while Republican men (22%) andRepublican women (19%) thus far give similar support to Campbell.Support for both Feinstein and Campbell is strongest on their home turf—the San FranciscoBay area. Feinstein's support is considerably weaker in the Central Valley and in SouthernCalifornia outside of Los Angeles County because of a large number of undecided voters in these twomore Republican-leaning regions. Support for Feinstein is much higher among Latinos (67%) thanamong non-Hispanic whites (44%). In the latter group, 34 percent of voters say they are undecided."If the March 2000 Primary election for the U.S. Senate werebeing held today, who would you vote for?"Likely Voters (Dec 99)Dianne Feinstein 50%Tom Campbell12Ray Haynes 3Bill Horn 2J.P. Gough 0Other 3Don't know30 California 2000 Election- 6 -"If the March 2000 Primary election for the U.S. Senate werebeing held today, who would you vote for?"Likely Voters (Dec 99)PartyRegionLatinoDemRepOtherCentralValleySF BayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaDianne Feinstein 78% 20% 48% 42% 64% 54% 42% 67%Tom Campbell 32111 816 613 9Ray Haynes 0 6 4 7 3 2 4 0Bill Horn 1 3 2 3 0 2 2 1J.P. Gough 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0Other 1 3 7 2 3 2 4 1Don’t know1747283714343522Approval RatingsThe high approval ratings (58%) for the incumbent Senator point to an uphill battle for anyRepublican challenger. Eighty-one percent of Democrats, 53 percent of the independent voters, and34 percent of the Republicans have a favorable impression of Feinstein's job performance. Latinos(70%) have an even more positive impression than non-Hispanic whites (53%) of Feinstein.An additional difficulty for GOP Congressman Campbell is that the voters have a mostlynegative impression of Republican leaders in the U.S. Congress. Fewer than four in 10 approve whileover half disapprove of their job performance. Seventy percent of Democrats and independent votersand 32 percent of Republicans disapprove. Disapproval is about equal among Latinos (49%) and non-Hispanic whites (53%).Likely Voters (Dec 99)"Do you approve or disapprove of the job that DianneFeinstein is doing as a U.S. Senator?"Approve 58%Disapprove33Don't know 9"Do you approve or disapprove of the job thatRepublican leaders in Congress are doing?"Approve 37%Disapprove55Don't know 8 California 2000 Election- 7 -Proposition 22: "Limit on Marriage" InitiativeThe "Limit on Marriage Initiative," Proposition 22, would require that only a marriage betweena man and a woman be recognized in the state. Californians still strongly favor this initiative, but bya somewhat smaller margin than in previous PPIC statewide surveys. Fifty-eight percent of likelyvoters are in favor of Proposition 22, while 38 percent are opposed.The initiative's title was recently changed by the Attorney General from "Definition ofMarriage" to "Limit on Marriage." The wording of the question in the most recent survey waschanged to reflect the new title. It is possible that the new ballot title could have been a factor inreducing the level of voter support over time, although there may be other reasons for the decline.About half of the Democrats and independents oppose this initiative while Republicansoverwhelmingly support it. San Francisco Bay Area voters are split, while voters in the Central Valleyare most strongly in favor of the initiative. Latinos (59%) and non-Hispanic whites (56%) show similarsupport, as do men (60%) and women (56%).Despite their positive feelings about an initiative that would ban gay and lesbian marriages inCalifornia, a solid majority of voters (57%) support the recent state legislation to legally recognizeand extend rights to domestic partnerships for gays and lesbians. Seventy percent of Democrats and68 percent of independent voters support this new legislation, while 56 percent of Republicansoppose it. Latinos (69%) are even more supportive than non-Hispanic whites (56%).Moreover, eight in 10 voters approve of state legislation that makes it unlawful to discriminatein employment or housing based on a person's sexual orientation. Eighty-eight percent of Democrats,76 percent of the independent voters, and 69 percent of Republicans are in favor of these new legalprotections for gays and lesbians. Once again, Latinos (85%) are even more supportive of this newstate legislation than are non-Hispanic whites (78%)."Proposition 22, the ‘limit on marriage’ initiative on the March 2000 ballot, adds a provision to the family codeproviding that only a marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California. If theelection were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 22?"Likely VotersDec 98*Sep 99*Dec 99Yes 64% 63% 58%No333438Don't know 3 3 4* Referred to as "Definition of Marriage" initiative in previous surveys California 2000 Election- 8 -If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 22?"Likely Voters (Dec 99)PartyRegionLatinoDemRepOtherCentralValleySF BayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaYes 47% 74% 46% 64% 48% 59% 60% 59%No4822503246353738Don't know 5 4 4 4 6 6 3 3Likely Voters (Dec 99)"The Governor recently signed state legislation giving recognition and rights todomestic partnerships for gays and lesbians, including the establishment of astatewide registry for domestic partnerships, providing hospital visitation rights fordomestic partners, and providing health benefits for the domestic partners of stateemployees. Do you approve or disapprove of this state legislation?"Approve 57%Disapprove39Don't know 4"The Governor also recently signed state legislation that makes it unlawful todiscriminate against someone in employment or housing based on the person’ssexual orientation. Do you approve or disapprove of this state legislation?"Approve 78%Disapprove20Don't know 2 California 2000 Election- 9 -Proposition 26: Simple Majority VoteThe priority voters give to improving education tests their loyalty to the two-thirds vote ruleimposed by Proposition 13. They continue to give strong support to an initiative that would changethe requirement for passing local school bonds from two-thirds to a simple-majority vote. Two inthree of the voters most likely to go to the polls say they would support Proposition 26, the "SchoolFacilities, Local Majority Vote" initiative on the March 2000 ballot.Since the September survey, support for this initiative has dropped by 12 points and oppositionhas increased by 11 points. However, the proposition still leads by nearly a two-to-one margin.There is at least majority support for this initiative across all voter registration groups andregions of the state. Support is stronger among Democrats (73%) and independents (63%) thanamong Republicans (56%). There are no significant differences across regions. Latinos (77%) aremore supportive than non-Hispanic whites (61%).Voters are not only willing to make it easier to pass local public school bonds, but are alsoinclined to vote for local school bond measures if they are placed on the March 2000 ballot. Seventy-two percent say that they would vote yes if their local school district had a bond measure on the ballotto pay for school construction projects, while only 22 percent would vote no. Support is 80 percentamong Democrats, 69 percent among independent voters, and 64 percent among Republicans. Bothwomen (74%) and men (69%) are strongly supportive, as are Latinos (84%) and non-Hispanic whites(69%).However, the deep loyalty to Proposition 13 reasserts itself when voters are asked about thegeneral idea of changing the vote requirements needed to raise local taxes. They strongly oppose(69% to 27%) changing Proposition 13 to allow local special taxes to pass with a simple majorityinstead of a two-thirds vote. A majority of Democrats (59%), Republicans (76%), and independentvoters (80%) are opposed. Latinos and non-Hispanic whites are equally opposed (69% each) to thesimple majority vote."Proposition 26, the 'school facilities, local majority vote' initiative on the March 2000 ballot, would authorizeschool and community college districts and county education offices to issue bonds for construction,rehabilitation, or replacement of school facilities if approved by a simple majority of local voters.Currently, a two-thirds majority is required to pass local school bonds. If the electionwere held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 26?" Likely VotersSep 99Dec 99Yes 76% 64%No2031Don't know 4 5 California 2000 Election- 10 -If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 26?"Likely Voters (Dec 99)PartyRegionLatinoDemRepOtherCentralValleySF BayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaYes 73% 56% 63% 67% 64% 64% 64% 77%No2239343230303217Don't know 5 5 3 1 6 6 4 6Likely Voters (Dec 99)"Suppose your local school district had a bond measure on the March 2000 ballot topay for school construction projects. Would you vote yes or no?”Yes 72%No22Don't know 6"Under Proposition 13, a two-thirds vote at the ballot box is required to pass anylocal special tax increases. Do you favor or oppose allowing local special taxincreases to pass with a simple majority instead of a two-thirds vote?"Favor 27%Oppose69Don't know 4 California 2000 Election- 11 -News Stories About the Presidential ElectionHow much attention are voters paying to the lead-up to the presidential primary? About two-thirds of likely voters are paying at least some attention. One in six are "very closely" following thenews stories about the candidates. The biggest group—about half—are following them "fairlyclosely," but one in three have yet to focus on the presidential sweepstakes.Right now, Republicans (72%) are a little more likely than Democrats (64%) and other likelyvoters (66%) to be at least fairly closely following the presidential primaries. There are no significantdifferences across regions. Latino voters (58%) are less likely than non-Hispanic white voters (70%) tobe very closely or fairly closely following the election.Among the general public, attention to news stories about candidates for the 2000 presidentialelection is much lower. Almost half of Californians say they follow this type of political news veryclosely (11%) or fairly closely (37%). More than half follow the news about presidential candidateseither not too closely (36%) or not at all closely (16%). There are large age differences: Only 36percent of 18 to 34 year olds are very or fairly closely following the presidential election news,compared to 46 percent of 35 to 54 year olds and 68 percent of those 55 and older."How closely have you been following the news storiesabout candidates for the 2000 presidential election?"Likely Voters (Dec 99)Very closely 16irly closely52Not too closely26Not at all closely 6Don't know 0Likely Voters (Dec 99)PartyRegionLatinoDemRepOtherCentralValleySF BayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaVery closely 13% 18% 15% 10% 16% 17% 17% 14irly closely5154515654515144Not too closely2923282923262633Not at all closely 7 5 6 5 6 6 6 8Don't know 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 - 13 -California State GovernmentMost Important Issue for 2000When asked to name the one issue that the Governor and State Legislature should work on in2000, Californians are most likely to mention schools. Twenty-eight percent rank schools as the mostimportant issue, while less than one in 10 mentions immigration (8%), crime (7%), health care andHMO reform (5%), and jobs and the economy (5%). Other issues such as poverty, taxes, and trafficreceive even fewer mentions. Seventeen percent are not sure what issue is most in need of attention.Schools are named as the top priority for state government in every region, among both Latinos andnon-Hispanic whites, and by Republicans, Democrats, and independent voters. One year ago, 36percent said that schools should be the top priority for the Governor and State Legislature in 1999,indicating that public concern about this issue has declined somewhat since December 1998.“Which one issue facing California today do you think is most importantfor the Governor and State Legislature to work on in 2000?”RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySF BayAreaLos AngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaLatinoSchools, education 28% 25% 30% 30% 27% 25%Immigration, illegal immigration 8 6 510 9 7Crime, gangs 7 8 411 612Health care, HMO reform 5 5 6 3 6 3Jobs, the economy 5 5 2 6 5 8Poverty, the homeless, the poor, welfare 4 6 6 3 4 5Taxes 4 7 3 3 5 2Environment, pollution 3 3 5 3 2 1Traffic and transportation 3 3 7 2 3 2Growth, overpopulation 2 1 3 1 3 0Housing costs, housing availability 2 0 5 1 1 0Race relations, ethnic tensions 2 2 0 2 2 5Drugs 1 3 1 1 2 3Government regulations 1 1 2 1 1 1Guns, gun control 1 2 0 1 1 2State and local finance 1 1 0 0 1 1State budget 1 1 0 1 1 2State government, governor, legislature 1 1 1 1 1 1Water 1 1 0 1 1 0Other 3 2 2 4 3 2Don't know171718151618 California State Government- 14 -Job Performance Ratings for State OfficialsAlthough a slim majority of Californians give high marks to Governor Gray Davis, even fewerthink highly of the Legislature's performance. Fifty-one percent rate Governor Davis's performance inoffice as excellent or good, one-third say he is doing a fair job, and 12 percent rate his job performanceas poor. In the September survey, 51 percent also gave Davis excellent or good ratings.The Governor’s positive ratings are fairly consistent across all regions of the state. Latinos (62%)are more likely than non-Hispanic whites (48%) to give Davis high marks. Democrats (61%) give theGovernor more excellent or good grades than do independent voters (48%) or Republicans (39%).In contrast, only 37 percent say the California Legislature is doing an excellent or good job. Fourin 10 rate the legislative body of California government as doing a fair job, and 13 percent rate it asdoing poorly. In the September survey, 32 percent gave the State Legislature excellent or good ratings.The ratings of the Legislature are similar in all regions. Latinos (48%) are more likely than non-Hispanic whites (33%) to give the Legislature excellent or good grades. Democrats (43%) give highermarks to the Legislature than independent voters (32%) or Republicans (29%).RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySFBayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaLatino“How do you rate the job performance ofGovernor Gray Davis at this time?”Excellent 9% 7% 7% 8%Good424644434143Fair313136273126Poor1211 91113 6Don’t know 6 5 4 6 7 6“How do you rate the job performance of theCalifornia legislature at this time?”Excellent 3% 2% 3% 4% 3% 7%Good343334353441Fair414543404138Poor1313111114 7Don't know 9 7 910 8 7 California State Government- 15 -Knowledge of PartisanshipHow much does partisanship figure in people's perceptions of California government? Aboutseven in 10 Californians know that Governor Davis is a Democrat. Twelve percent think he is aRepublican and 19 percent are uncertain. Knowledge of the Governor’s party affiliation is slightlyhigher in the San Francisco Bay area and in Los Angeles than in other regions. About half of Latinosknow the Governor’s party affiliation, compared to 73 percent of non-Hispanic whites. Democrats(78%) and Republicans (79%) are more aware than independent voters (57%) and those who are notregistered to vote (48%) that Davis is a Democrat.Only 42 percent of Californians know that the California Legislature is currently controlled bythe Democrats. Twenty-three percent think the Republicans are in charge, while 35 percent areunsure. Fewer than half of those surveyed know which political party is currently in control of theState Legislature. Latinos (34%) are less likely than non-Hispanic whites (47%) to know.Interestingly, Republicans (57%) are more knowledgeable about the Democrats being in power, whilefewer than half of the Democrats (43%), independent voters (39%), and those who are not registeredto vote (24%) named the Democrats.There are large differences in political knowledge across age groups. Among those 18 to 34 yearsold, 54 percent know that the Governor is a Democrat and 34 percent are aware that the Legislatureis controlled by the Democrats. Among those 35 to 54 years old, 72 percent know that Davis is aDemocrat and 43 percent know who runs the Legislature. Among those 55 and older, 83 percent knowthe party of the Governor and 51 percent know the party controlling the Legislature.RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySFBayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaLatino“Do you happen to know if California GovernorGray Davis is a Democrat or a Republican?”Democrat 69% 66% 73% 71% 66% 56%Republican121511121217Don’t know191916172227“Do you happen to know if the Californialegislature is controlled by the Democrats orthe Republicans?”Democrats 42% 39% 43% 44% 39% 34%Republicans232419232527Don't know353738333639 California State Government- 16 -Perceptions of Political ViewsCalifornians hold a wide variety of perceptions about the political views of their state officials,but most see them as occupying the middle of the political spectrum. One in three see GovernorDavis as a liberal, one in three see him as middle-of-the-road, and one in four see him as aconservative. The most common perception of Governor Davis—held by 59 percent of residents—isthat his political views are either somewhat liberal or middle-of-the-road.Republicans (46%) are much more likely than Democrats (32%) or independent voters (31%) toperceive Governor Davis as a liberal. About one-third of Republicans (32%), Democrats (37%), andindependents (35%) see him as middle-of-the-road. Fewer Republicans (16%) than Democrats (24%)and independent voters (30%) see him as a conservative.A similar one in three perceive the Legislative leadership as liberal, one in three see them asmiddle-of-the-road, and one in four see them as conservative. The most common perception of theLegislative leadership is that they are somewhat liberal or middle-of-the-road (56%).Republicans (50%) are much more likely than Democrats (29%) or independent voters (32%) toperceive the Legislative leadership as liberal. Republicans (27%) are less likely than Democrats(33%) and independents (30%) see them as middle-of-the-road. Fewer Republicans (14%) thanDemocrats (29%) and independent voters (30%) see their State Legislative leaders as conservative.There is not much difference across regions in political perceptions of state leaders. Latinos aremore likely than non-Hispanic whites to see the Governor and State Legislature as conservative.Most Californians (58%) describe their own political beliefs as middle-of-the-road to somewhatconservative. Half see the Governor (51%) and Legislative leaders (50%) in this way.RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySFBayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaLatino“Would you consider Governor Gray Davis to bepolitically….”Very liberal 9% 8% 8% 9% 9% 4%Somewhat liberal262925272522Middle-of-the-road333238273625Somewhat conservative181620221526Very conservative 6 8 3 7 511Don’t know 8 7 6 81012“Would you consider the leadership in the CaliforniaLegislature to be politically.…”Very liberal 9% 11% 7% 10% 8% 7%Somewhat liberal252827252225Middle-of-the-road313135253322Somewhat conservative191718211824Very conservative 5 3 5 8 510Don’t know1110 8111412 California State Government- 17 -“Undivided” State GovernmentCalifornia has had a divided state government for most of the past 16 years: From 1983through 1998, the state had a Republican Governor, but both houses of the Legislature werecontrolled by the Democrats during most of that time. How do Californians rate the policy impact ofnow having a Democratic governor and a Legislature controlled by the Democrats? To most, thechange that took place in early 1999 is irrelevant. Nearly half say it has made no difference forpublic policymaking to have the same party in control of the executive and legislative branches ofstate government. Of those who think that one-party rule has made a difference, more are likely tosay it has been a good thing rather than a bad thing (30% to 19%).As would be expected, the Democrats are more likely to say that “undivided” government is agood thing rather than a bad thing for policymaking (43% to 8%), while Republicans are more likelyto say it is a bad thing (38% to 16%). Independents are more likely to say one-party rule has been agood thing rather than a bad thing for policymaking (27% to 17%). In all voter groups, though, themost frequent response is that having the Governor and Legislature from the same party makes nodifference.The regional trends reflect the regional variations in party registration. In the Democraticregions of the state (i.e., the San Francisco Bay area, Los Angeles) residents are more inclined to saythat “undivided government” is a good thing, while in the more Republican regions (i.e., the CentralValley, Southern California suburbs) residents are more likely to say that having the one party incontrol of state government is a bad thing. Latinos are less likely than non-Hispanic whites to saythat unified government is a bad thing (8% to 25%). In all regions of the state and across racial andethnic groups, again, people are most likely to say that one-party rule makes no difference.“At this time, the California Governor is a Democrat and the California legislature is controlled by theDemocrats. In terms of public policymaking, do you think that it is a good thing or a bad thing to have theGovernor and the California Legislature from the same party, or does it make no difference?”RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySF BayAreaLos AngelesOther SouthernCaliforniaLatinoGood thing 30% 23% 36% 33% 26% 36d thing1923171622 8No difference475043464751Don't know, it depends 4 4 4 5 5 5 California State Government- 18 -Policy InfluenceWhen they consider the forces that influence public policy, Californians evidently would like tosee a shift in the balance of power. Currently they believe that the Legislature (37%) has moreinfluence than the Governor (33%) or the initiative process (20%).San Francisco Bay area residents are the least likely to say that the Governor has the mostinfluence (27%). Latinos are the most likely to say that the Governor (44%) has the most influence,while non-Hispanic whites more often mention the Legislature (40%). Democrats are equally likelyto say that the Governor or the Legislature have the most power over public policy (34% to 36%)while Republicans (42% to 29%) and independent voters (40% to 33%) are more likely to say that theGovernor is more powerful than the Legislature. Those who are not registered to vote are also morelikely to believe that the Governor is more important than the Legislature (39% to 30%).However, the perceived status quo is not what most Californians would prefer. Forty-twopercent would like the initiative process to have the most influence on public policy. Fewer mentionthe Legislature (30%) as their top choice for state policy influence and even fewer name the Governor(21%).The initiative process draws its greatest support from two regions with very different politicalprofiles—the San Francisco Bay area and the Southern California suburban region. Moreover, theinitiative process is the top choice for independent voters (48%), Republicans (45%), Democrats(42%), and those who are not registered to vote (35%). Latinos want the Governor (37%) to have moreinfluence than initiatives (32%) or the Legislature (21%). However, non-Hispanic whites opt forinitiatives (46%) over the Legislature (34%) or the Governor (15%).RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySFBayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaLatino“In California state government today, which of thefollowing do you think has the most influence over publicpolicy?”The governor 33% 35% 27% 36% 33% 44%The legislature373940343627Initiatives on the state ballot201623192320Other answer 2 2 3 2 2 2Don’t know 8 8 7 9 6 7“Which of the following would you prefer to have the mostinfluence over public policy in California StateGovernment?”The governor 21% 24% 16% 26% 18% 37%The legislature30293228 3121Initiatives on the state ballot424046384632Other answer 2 2 2 1 1 1Don’t know 5 5 4 7 4 9 California State Government- 19 -News Stories About State GovernmentAbout one in three Californians pays close attention to news stories about the Governor andCalifornia Legislature, but only 6 percent say they very closely follow this type of news. Two in threeadult residents pay little or no attention to state government news.By contrast, more Californians (48%) say they are very closely or fairly closely following newsabout the presidential election than about their state government.There is slightly more attention to news about the Governor and State Legislature in theCentral Valley than elsewhere in the state. Latinos are less likely than non-Hispanic whites to saythey very closely or fairly closely follow this news (33% to 40%).Democrats (42%) and Republicans (43%) are more likely than independents (31%) and thosewho are not registered to vote (26%) to follow state government news at least fairly closely. Still,fewer than one in 10 in any voter group is avid for state government news.There are large differences across age groups. Only 28 percent of 18 to 34 year olds either veryclosely or fairly closely follow state government news, compared to 38 percent of 35 to 54 year olds,and 49 percent of those 55 and older.These results provide a benchmark for monitoring trends over time in the California public’sattention to news about the Governor and State Legislature. “How closely have you been following the news stories aboutthe Governor and California Legislature?”RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySF BayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaLatinoVery closely 6% 5% 5% 8% 6% 8irly closely313733283025Not too closely454547454548Not at all closely171315191818Don't know 1 0 0 0 1 1 - 21 -California in the New MillenniumPopulation Today and in 2020Californians lack a common perception about the current population and future growth of theirstate. California currently has about 34 million residents, but only 13 percent of Californians placetoday’s state population within the 30 million-to-35 million range. Almost half of the residents thinkthat the state's population is below 30 million, one in five believe it is more than 35 million, and 22percent admit they don't know.Most have a perception of the state's population that is very dated. The state's populationreached 10.6 million in 1950, 20 million in 1970, and 29.9 million in 1990. Yet, 22 percent ofresidents think that the state has 10 million or fewer inhabitants today, and 24 percent say thatbetween 11 million and 29 million people live in California.When asked for their best guess about California's population in 2020, the survey respondentsgave widely varying and some highly unlikely estimates. The California Department of Finance(DOF) estimates 45 million residents in 2020. Only 10 percent of Californians expect the state'spopulation to be between 40 million and 49 million. Twenty-seven percent expect the population tobe under 30 million, which is smaller than the California population today. Twenty-two percentexpect the state's population to reach 60 million or more by the year 2020, while current CaliforniaDOF forecasts do not put the state's population at that level before 2040. Again, about one in fouradmit that they don't know what to expect for California's population in the year 2020.To put these results further in perspective, consider how many Californians have a grasp onboth current population and future projections. Only 4 percent say the state population is between30 million and 35 million today and will be between 40 million and 49 million in 2020."Could you tell me what the state of California’s population is today?”“What do you think the state of California’s population will be in 2020?"(All Adults)CaliforniaPopulationTodayCaliforniaPopulationin 202010 million or under 22% 10-19 million 8 620-29 million161130-35 million13 836-39 million 1 140-49 million 41050-59 million 4 860 million or more1022Don’t know2224 California in the New Millennium- 22 -Regional Conditions in 2020Looking ahead to life in their region in the year 2020, Californians see cause for both hope andconcern. Large majorities of Californians think that the public education system will improve (63%),that race and ethnic relations will improve (61%), and that job opportunities and economic conditions(60%) will improve in their regions. However, large majorities also believe that the gap between richand poor will grow (72%), that the quality of the natural environment will worsen (60%), and thatthe crime rate will increase (55%) in their regions.Expectations for the year 2020 differ significantly by region. For example, San Francisco Bay Arearesidents are the most likely to think that race relations will improve (66%) and that the crime rate willdecline (47%). Central Valley residents are the most likely to think that the crime rate will increase(60%), and they are more likely to believe that the public education system will improve (70%).Latinos and non-Hispanic whites have different views about future conditions in their regions.Latinos are more likely to think that the public education system will improve (70% to 62%), that thequality of the natural environment will improve (42% to 36%), and that the gap between the rich andthe poor will get smaller (33% to 19%). Latinos and non-Hispanic whites have similar expectationson the issues of improving race and ethnic relations, decreasing the crime rate, and improving jobopportunities and economic conditions.There are also age and income differences in perceptions of life in 2020. Younger Californiansare more likely than those over 35 to think that race relations will improve, but younger people aremore likely to think the crime rate will increase and the quality of the natural environment will getworse. Higher-income residents are more likely than others to believe that the gap between rich andpoor will grow but that economic conditions and job opportunities will also improve in the year 2020.Those who say that the state’s population in 2020 will reach the predicted 40 million to 49million mark are more likely than others to believe that the income gap will grow (82%), and theyare less likely (50%) to believe that race and ethnic relations will improve in their regions. California in the New Millennium- 23 -"Looking ahead to the year 2020, which is more likely to happen in your region?"RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySF BayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaLatinoThe public education system will …Improve 63% 70% 62% 62% 61% 70%Get worse342734343627Neither/no change 1 2 1 2 1 1Don’t know 2 1 3 2 2 2Race and ethnic relations will …Improve 61% 59% 66% 59% 61% 62Get worse343529373332Neither/no change 3 3 3 2 4 3Don’t know 2 3 2 2 2 3Job opportunities and economicconditions will …Improve 60% 57% 62% 58% 62% 59%Get worse353832363436Neither/no Change 3 3 4 3 2 4Don’t know 2 2 2 3 2 1The gap between rich and poor will …Grow 72% 70% 76% 72% 71% 60%Get smaller232621232433Neither/no change 3 3 2 4 3 5Don’t know 2 1 1 1 2 2The quality of the natural environmentwill …Improve 37% 35% 37% 41% 35% 42%Get worse606259566255Neither/no change 2 2 4 2 2 2Don’t know 1 1 0 1 1 1The crime rate will …Increase 55% 60% 48% 55% 57% 56crease413647404040Neither/no change 2 2 3 3 1 2Don’t know 2 2 2 2 2 2 California in the New Millennium- 24 -Overall OutlookEven though they have mixed expectations about life in their regions, many Californians arepessimistic about the long-term outlook for the state. Forty-three percent expect California to be aworse place to live in the year 2020 than it is today, while 25 percent think it will be a better place.This amounts to an 18-point gap between pessimists and optimists. Thirty percent expect no change. In every major region, those expecting that California will be a better place to live areoutnumbered by those expecting things will get worse. There are no differences across age groups.Once again, Latinos are more optimistic about the future than non-Hispanic whites. Latinos areequally likely to say that California will be a better place (34%), a worse place (31%), or beunchanged (33%) in 2020. In contrast, most non-Hispanic whites think California will be a worseplace (48%) rather than a better place (21%) in 2020, while 29 percent expect no change.Those who see California in 2020 as a worse place to live overwhelmingly believe that theincome gap will grow (87%), that crime will increase (74%), and that the quality of the naturalenvironment will get worse (75%) in their regions. Most of those who think California will be a betterplace to live by the year 2020 expect to see improvements in the public education system (87%),increases in job opportunities (82%), and improvements in race and ethnic relations (83%).Pessimism is greatest among those with the most accurate sense of the state's current andfuture population. Most who estimate that today’s state population is between 30 million and 35million say that California will be a worse place rather than a better place to live in the future (51%to 19%). And of those who think the state’s population in 2020 will reach 40 million to 49 million,most believe the state will be a worse rather than a better place to live (52% to 16%)."Overall, do you think that in 2020 California will be a better place to live than it is nowor a worse place to live than it is now, or will there be no change?"RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySF BayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaLatinoBetter place 25% 24% 21% 26% 25% 34%Worse place434442394631No change303034332733Don't know 2 2 3 2 2 2The Y2K BugWith the much-ballyhooed Y2K computer bug now only weeks away from a reality test,Californians generally dismiss the probability that it will significantly affect their lives. Only 8percent think that the Y2K bug will cause major problems, while two in three expect some minorproblems from millennial computer glitches. When compared to the nation as a whole, according to arecent NSF/USA Today Poll, Californians are more likely to say they expect no Y2K problems (24%to 14%). California in the New Millennium- 25 -Nevertheless, many Californians are still planning to take precautions against computerfailures. Four in 10 plan to stockpile food and water and one in three will withdraw cash from thebank. At the same time, as further evidence that they expect only minor problems, few are planningon having “a lot” of food, water, or money on hand for the new millennium. Californians are as likelyas the nation to plan to stockpile food and water (41% to 40%).The only regional difference is that San Francisco Bay Area residents will be less likely thanothers to stockpile food and water (66% to 57%). There are significant differences between Latinosand non-Hispanic whites. Latinos are more likely than non-Hispanic whites to think that Y2K willcause major problems (16% to 4%). Their heightened concerns are reflected by the fact that Latinosare more likely than non-Hispanic whites to say that they will stockpile a lot food and water (23% to4%) and withdraw a lot of cash (14% to 4%). Those with higher incomes and educations are lessconcerned about Y2K problems and less likely to say they plan to stockpile food, water, and cash.Those who are closest to computers are not very worried up the Y2K bug. Of those who saythey often use computers and the Internet, only one in 20 predict major Y2K problems, while sevenin 10 expect minor problems, and one in four think there will be no problems at all. Moreover, two inthree say they will not stockpile food and water or take out extra cash as Y2K precautions.RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySF BayAreaLosAngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaLatino“Do you think the Y2K issue willcause…”Major problems 8% 7% 7% 9% 7% 16%Minor problems676766656860No problems at all242525242421Don’t know 1 1 2 2 1 3“As a Y2K precaution, do you plan tostockpile food and water?”Yes, a lot 9% 10% 5% 11% 7% 23%Yes, some323128362839No585966516334Don’t know 1 0 1 2 2 4“As a Y2K precaution, do you plan towithdraw cash from the bank?”Yes, a lot 7% 6% 6% 7% 7% 14%Yes, some292630302631No636662616654Don’t know 1 2 2 2 1 1 - 27 -Political, Social, and Economic TrendsJob Performance Ratings for Federal OfficialsAs President Clinton approaches his final year in office, most Californians continue to give himhigh marks for his job performance. They are much less generous in their ratings of the U.S.Congress.Fifty-five percent say President Clinton is doing an excellent or good job in office. That is exactlythe same rating he received in our September survey and very similar to the ratings he received inDecember 1998 (59%). The President's ratings, however, are sharply different by party. MostDemocrats (72%) and independent voters (52%), but few Republicans (28%), give him excellent orgood ratings. The party differences correspond with higher job performance ratings in Los AngelesCounty (62%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (61%) than in the rest of Southern California (49%) orthe Central Valley (45%). President Clinton gets much higher job performance ratings from Latinos(71%) than from non-Hispanic whites (50%).In contrast, only 35 percent of Californians give the U.S. Congress excellent or good marks.However, this is higher than the ratings Congress received in September (26%), and similar to therating Congress received in May (33%), October (39%), and December (33%) of 1998 during theClinton impeachment by the House of Representatives and the Senate trial. The Congressionalratings do not vary much by either party or region, but approval ratings are higher among Latinos(46%) than among non-Hispanic whites (32%)."How do you rate the job performance of ..."(All Adults)President ClintonU.S. CongressOct 98Dec 98Sep 99Dec 99Oct 98Dec 98Sep 99Dec 99Excellent 26% 26% 16% 18% 5% 4% 2% 5%Good3433393734292430Fair1920272540424844Poor2120181919222118Don't know 0 1 0 1 2 3 5 3 Political, Social, and Economic Trends- 28 -Mood of the StateIn contrast to opinions about life in California in the year 2020, seen earlier, Californians remainoptimistic about the current state of their state. Sixty-two percent say that things are going in theright direction in California, while 31 percent think that things are going in the wrong direction. Thepositive sentiments today are similar to those in last September’s survey (61%), and in the survey ayear ago in December 1998 (63%). The mood is brighter in the San Francisco Bay Area than in otherregions, and higher among Latinos than among non-Hispanic whites (67% to 60%). Attitudes areuniformly positive across age, income, gender, and political groups.The state's residents are also very bullish about the California economy in the next year. Thosewho expect good times (76%) outnumber those who expect bad times (19%) by nearly four to one. Themood varies across the state's major regions, with those living in the San Francisco Bay Area themost optimistic (83%) and those living in the Central Valley the least optimistic (66%). Latinos(68%) are less likely than non-Hispanic whites (78%) to expect good economic times in the next year.The vast majority in all age, income, and racial and ethnic groups are optimistic about the state’seconomy in 2000."Do you think things in California are generally goingin the right direction or the wrong direction?"RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySF BayAreaLos AngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaLatinoRight direction 62% 57% 67% 61% 62% 67%Wrong direction313624313225Don't know 7 7 9 8 6 8"Do you think that during the next 12 months we willhave good times financially or bad times?"RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySF BayAreaLos AngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaLatinoGood times 76% 66% 83% 72% 80% 68d times192812221527Don't know 5 6 5 6 5 5 Political, Social, and Economic Trends- 29 -Computers and the InternetHow pervasive is computer and Internet use in the state? Three in four Californians have useda computer, while 55 percent say they "often" use a computer at home, school, or work. San FranciscoBay Area residents (65%) are more likely than others to be frequent computer users. With regard tofrequent computer use, there is a large "digital divide" across race and ethic groups. Specifically,Latinos are much less likely than non-Hispanic whites to use a computer on a frequent basis (37% to59%). Frequent computer use increases with higher household income: For instance, 38 percent ofthose with incomes under $40,000 often use computers, compared to 82 percent with incomes of$80,000 or more. Frequent computer use is highly evident among those 18 to 54 (63%) and much lesscommon among those 55 and older (33%). Six in 10 Californians have used the Internet, while 43 percent say they "often" go on line. TheSan Francisco Bay Area (52%) leads all other regions in frequent use of the Internet. As with overallcomputer usage, Latinos lag far behind non-Hispanic whites in frequent use of the Internet (22% to50%). Frequent Internet use increases with higher household income: For instance, 26 percent ofthose with household incomes under $40,000 often use it, compared to 72 percent of those withincomes of $80,000 or more. Frequent Internet use is found among half of the adult residents whoare 18 to 54 (50%), while it is more rare among those who are 55 and older (25%)."Do you yourself ever use a computer at home, at work, or at school?"RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySF BayAreaLos AngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaLatinoYes, often 55% 51% 65% 51% 56% 37%Yes, sometimes212119222230No242816272233"Do you ever go on line to access the Internet or World-Wide Web?”RegionAllAdultsCentralValleySF BayAreaLos AngelesOtherSouthernCaliforniaLatinoYes, often 43% 37% 52% 37% 46% 22%Yes, sometimes182019162020No151513191225Don't useComputers242816282233 Political, Social, and Economic Trends- 30 -Internet PoliticsThe Internet has great potential as a source of information and news about politics. However, ithas not yet become a major source. One in five Californians have gone on-line to gather news andinformation about politics and elections, although only 7 percent say they often "surf the net" for thispurpose. Thirty-seven percent of those who often or sometimes use the Internet have searched forpolitical and election news.There are no major differences across political parties. As would be expected, voters are morelikely than those not registered to vote to look to the net for political information (24% to 14%).Latinos are less likely than non-Hispanic whites to use the Internet to gather political information(15% to 24%). Gathering political news and information from the Internet is more common amongthose who are 18 to 54 (25%) than those who are 55 and older (13%). This type of Internet activity islower among those with incomes under $40,000 (13%) than with those earning $80,000 or more (37%).One in 11 Californians has thus far visited the web sites of presidential candidates, and only 1percent often use the Internet for this purpose. Fifteen percent of Internet users have looked at theweb sites. Once again, there are differences between voters and those who are not registered to voteand little variation across political parties. Few Latinos (8%) and non-Hispanic whites (9%) use theInternet to visit the web sites of presidential candidates. Similarly, small numbers of visits to thesesites are reported across all age and income groups.These results are intended to provide “benchmark” data. The question will be repeated nextyear to monitor trends in political information gathering on the Internet during the 2000 election."Do you ever go on-line to ...”Party RegistrationAllAdultsDemocratRepublicanOtherNotRegisteredLatino“Get news and information about politicsand elections?”Yes, often 7% 7% 6% 8% 5% 5%Yes, sometimes15142017 910No403841483727Don't use Internet384133274958“To visit the web sites of the presidentialcandidates?”Yes, often 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 3%Yes, sometimes 8 8 711 5 5No534960604534Don't use Internet384132284958 Political, Social, and Economic Trends- 31 -Internet VotingAlthough there is some groundswell of interest in voting over the Internet, Californians are splitover the issue. Slim majorities of Democrats (50%), independents (52%), and residents who are notregistered to vote (53%) are in favor of Internet voting. A majority of Republicans are opposed toallowing voting over the Internet (56%). Despite their comparative lack of connection with theInternet, Latinos favor Internet voting more than non-Hispanic whites (50% to 45%).Even among Internet users, there is a lack of overwhelming support for Internet voting.Internet users (54%) are more likely than nonusers (37%) to support Internet voting. Still, almosthalf of the Internet users are opposed or undecided.Demographic trends reflect Internet use. Public support for allowing voting over the Internet ishighest among 18 to 34 year olds (59%) and 35 to 54 year olds (50%), but there is little support forInternet voting among those 55 and older (27%). There is less support for Internet voting amongthose with incomes under $80,000 (47%) than among those with incomes of $80,000 or more (57%).If Internet voting were made available, 30 percent of those surveyed say they would prefer thismethod rather than the more traditional ballot box and absentee ballot options. Democrats (29%)and Republicans (24%) are less likely to prefer voting over the Internet than independent and otherparty voters (36%) and those who are not registered to vote (37%). Latinos (27%) and non-Hispanicwhites (29%) show an equal preference for voting over the Internet.Internet users are as likely to prefer the Internet (40%) as the ballot box (41%), while nonusersof the Internet overwhelmingly would opt for the ballot box (54%) followed by absentee ballots (31%).Again, demographic trends follow Internet use. The preference for voting over the Internet is muchhigher among those 18 to 34 (42%) and 35 to 54 (32%) than among those 55 and older (10%). Thosewith incomes under $40,000 (25%) are much less likely than those with incomes of $80,000 or more(43%) to say they would prefer to vote over the Internet.Party RegistrationAllAdultsDemocratRepublicanOtherNotRegisteredLatino“Do you favor or oppose a system thatwould allow Californians to vote inelections over the Internet?”Favor47% 50% 40% 52% 53% 50%Oppose484556444145Don’t know 5 5 4 4 6 5“If you had the choice, would you prefer tovote in elections at the ballot box, byabsentee mail ballot, or over the Internet?”Ballot box46% 47% 49% 39% 47sentee ballot232326192123Internet302924363727Don’t know 1 1 1 03 3 - 33 -Survey MethodologyThe PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, a senior fellow at the Public PolicyInstitute of California, with research assistance from Jonathan Cohen and Christopher Hoene. Thefindings of this survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,009 California adult residentsinterviewed from November 29 to December 8, 1999. Interviewing took place on weekend days andweekday nights, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers, ensuring thatboth listed and unlisted telephone numbers were called. All telephone exchanges in California wereeligible for calling. Telephone numbers in the survey sample were called up to five times to increasethe likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent(18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing by using the “last birthday method” to avoidbiases in age and gender. Each interview took an average of 20 minutes to complete. Interviewingwas conducted in English or Spanish. Maria Tello translated the survey into Spanish.We used recent U.S. Census and state figures to compare the demographic characteristics of thesurvey sample with characteristics of California's adult population. The survey sample was closelycomparable to U.S. Census and state figures. The survey data in this report were statisticallyweighted to account for any demographic differences.The sampling error for the total sample of 2,009 adults is +/- 2 percent at the 95 percentconfidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 2 percentage pointsof what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroupsis larger. The sampling error for the 1,529 registered voters is +/- 2.5% and for the 949 likely votersis +/- 3.5%. Sampling error is just one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may alsobe affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing.Throughout the report, we refer to four geographic regions. “Central Valley” includes Butte,Colusa, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta,Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “SF Bay Area” includes Alameda,Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties.“Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, and "Other Southern California" includes the mostlysuburban regions of Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. These four regionswere chosen for analysis because they are the major population centers of the state, accounting forapproximately 90 percent of the state population; moreover, the growth of the Central Valley and“Other Southern California” regions have given them increasing political significance.We present specific results for Latinos because they account for about 24 percent of the state'sadult population and constitute one of the fastest growing voter groups. For likely voters, thesample sizes for the African American and Asian subgroups are not large enough for separatestatistical analysis. We contrast the opinions of Democrats and Republicans with "other" or“independent” registered voters. This third category includes those who are registered to vote as“decline to state” as well as a fewer number who say they are members of other political parties.In some cases we compare PPIC Statewide Survey responses to responses recorded in nationalsurveys conducted by the Pew Research Center in 1998 and 1999 and the National ScienceFoundation/USA Today in 1999. We adapted questions about state government asked by the FloridaAnnual Policy Survey in 1997 and the Texas Poll in 1998. We used 1998 and 1999 PPIC StatewideSurveys to analyze trends over time in California. - 35 - PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 8 2,009 CALIFORNIA ADULT RESIDENTS; ENGLISH AND SPANISH MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 2% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE [Responses recorded for first 15 questions are from likely voters. All other responses are from all adults.]1. In March 2000, California will hold an open primary. That means the voters will be able to vote for anyone they choose, regardless of the candidate’s party. If the presidential primary were held today, who would you vote for? (rotate names, then ask, “or someone else”) 28%George W. Bush, Republican 24Al Gore, Democrat 15Bill Bradley, Democrat 9John McCain, Republican 3Steve Forbes, Republican 2Gary Bauer, Republican 1Orrin Hatch, Republican 1Alan Keyes, Republican 1Donald Trump, Reform Party 2someone else (specify) 14don't know 2. If these were the candidates in the presidential election in November 2000, who would you vote for? (rotate) 48%George W. Bush, Republican 44Al Gore, Democrat 8don't know 3. If these were the candidates in the presidential election in November 2000, who would you vote for? (rotate) 46%George W. Bush, Republican 44Bill Bradley, Democrat 10don't know 4. People have different ideas about the qualifications they want when they vote for presidential candidates. Which of these is most important to you? Would it be … (rotate) 58%the candidates’ stands on the issues 22the candidates’ character 13the candidates’ experience 5the candidates’ political party 1other 1don't know, it depends5. Thinking about the presidential candidates and what you learn about them, how important is it for you to learn about how well a candidate connects with people like you–very important, somewhat important, or not important? 53%very important 34somewhat important 11not important 2don't know 6. If the March 2000 primary election for the U.S. Senate were being held today, who would you vote for? (rotate names, then ask, “or someone else”) 50%Dianne Feinstein, Democrat 12Tom Campbell, Republican 3Ray Haynes, Republican 2Bill Horn, Republican 0J.P. Gough, Republican 3someone else (specify) 30don't know 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Dianne Feinstein is doing as a U.S. Senator? 58%approve 33disapprove 9don't know 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the job that the Republican leaders in Congress are doing? 37%approve 55disapprove 8don't know 9. Proposition 22, the “Limit on Marriage” initiative on the March 2000 ballot, adds a provision to the family code providing that only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 22? 58%yes 38no 4don't know - 36 - 10. The Governor recently signed state legislation giving recognition and rights to domestic partnerships for gays and lesbians, including the establishment of a statewide registry for domestic partnerships, providing hospital visitation rights for domestic partners, and providing health benefits for the domestic partners of state employees. Do you approve or disapprove of this state legislation? 57%approve 39disapprove 4don't know 11. The Governor recently signed state legislation that makes it unlawful to discriminate against someone in employment or housing based on the person’s sexual orientation. Do you approve or disapprove of this state legislation? 78%approve 20disapprove 2don't know 12. Proposition 26, the “School Facilities, Local Majority Vote” initiative on the March 2000 ballot, would authorize school and community college districts and county education offices to issue bonds for construction, rehabilitation, or replacement of school facilities if approved by a simple majority of local voters. Currently, a two- thirds majority is required to pass local school bonds. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 26? 64%yes 31no 5don't know 13. Suppose your local school district had a bond measure on the March 2000 ballot to pay for school construction projects. Would you vote yes or no? 72%yes 22no 6don't know, depends 14. Under Proposition 13, a two-thirds vote at the ballot box is required to pass any local special tax increases. Do you favor or oppose allowing local special tax increases to pass with a simple majority instead of a two-thirds vote? 27vor 69oppose 4don't know15. On another topic, how closely have you been following the news stories about candidates for the 2000 presidential election–very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 16%very closely 52fairly closely 26not too closely 6not at all closely 0don't know 16. Which one issue facing California today do you think is most important for the Governor and state legislature to work on in 2000? (code don’t read) 28%schools, education 8immigration, illegal immigration 7crime, gangs 5jobs, the economy 5health care, HMO reform 4taxes 4 poverty, the poor, the homeless, welfare 3environment, pollution 3traffic and transportation 2housing costs, housing availability 2growth, overpopulation 2race relations, ethnic tensions 1state government, governor, legislature 1state budget 1state and local finance 1government regulations 1drugs 1water 1guns, gun control 3other 17don't know 17. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 62%right direction 31wrong direction 7don't know 18. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 76%good times 19bad times 5don't know - 37 - 19. How do you rate the job performance of president Bill Clinton at this time–excellent, good, fair, or poor? 18%excellent 37good 25fair 19poor 1don't know 20. How do you rate the job performance of the U.S. Congress at this time? 5%excellent 30good 44fair 18poor 3don't know 21. How do you rate the job performance of Governor Gray Davis at this time? 9%excellent 42good 31fair 12poor 6don't know 22. How do you rate the job performance of the California legislature at this time? 3%excellent 34good 41fair 13poor 9don't know 23. How closely have you been following the news stories about the Governor and California legislature–very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 6%very closely 31fairly closely 45not too closely 17not at all closely 1don't know 24. Do you happen to know if California Governor Gray Davis is (a) a Democrat or (b) a Republican? (rotate a and b) 69mocrat 12Republican 19don't know25. Both houses of the California legislature are controlled by the same party. Do you happen to know if the California legislature is controlled by the (a) the Democrats or (b) the Republicans? (rotate a and b) 42mocrats 23Republicans 35don't know 26. We hear a lot of talk these days about liberals and conservatives. Would you consider Governor Gray Davis to be politically very liberal, somewhat liberal, middle-of-the-road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative? 9%very liberal 26somewhat liberal 33middle-of-the-road 18somewhat conservative 6very conservative 8don't know 27. And would you consider the leadership in the California legislature to be politically very liberal, somewhat liberal, middle-of-the-road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative? 9%very liberal 25somewhat liberal 31middle-of-the-road 19somewhat conservative 5very conservative 11don't know 28. At this time, the California Governor is a Democrat and the California legislature is controlled by the Democrats. In terms of public policymaking, do you think that it is a good thing or a bad thing to have the Governor and the California legislature from the same party, or does it make no difference? 30%good thing 19bad thing 47no difference 2it depends 2don't know 29. In California state government today, which of the following do you think has the most influence over public policy? (rotate) 33%the Governor 37the legislature 20initiatives on the state ballot 2other 8don't know - 38 - 30. Which of the following would you prefer to have the most influence over public policy in California state government? (rotate) 21%the Governor 30the legislature 42initiatives on the state ballot 2other 5don't know 31. Could you tell me what the state of California's population is today–in millions (just your best guess). (code directly to the nearest million) 22%under 10 million 811-19 million 1620-29 million 1330-35 million 136-39 million 440-49 million 450-59 million 1060 million or more 22don’t know 32. And could you tell me what you think the state of California's population will be about 20 years from now-that is, in 2020-in millions. (code directly to the nearest million) 10%under 10 million 611-19 million 1120-29 million 830-35 million 136-39 million 1040-49 million 850-59 million 2260 million or more 24don’t know Looking ahead to the year 2020, as I read each of the following pairs, please tell me which is more likely to happen in your region. (rotate questions 33-38) 33. (a) race and ethnic relations will improve or (b) race and ethnic relations will get worse? (rotate) 61%improve 34get worse 3neither/no change (code don't read) 2don't know 34. (a) the crime rate will increase or (b) the crime rate will decrease? (rotate) 55%increase 41decrease 2neither/no change (code don't read) 2don't know35. (a) the public education system will improve or (b) the public education system will get worse? (rotate) 63%improve 34get worse 1neither/no change (code don't read) 2don't know 36. (a) the gap between rich and poor will grow or (b) the gap between rich and poor will get smaller? (rotate) 72%grow 23get smaller 3neither/no change (code don't read) 2don't know 37. (a) the quality of the natural environment will improve or (b) the quality of the natural environment will get worse? (rotate) 37%improve 60get worse 2neither/no change (code don't read) 1don't know 38. (a) job opportunities and economic conditions will improve or (b) job opportunities and economic conditions will get worse? (rotate) 60%improve 35get worse 3neither/no change (code don't read) 2don't know 39. Overall, do you think that in 2020 California will be a better place to live than it is now or a worse place to live than it is now, or will there be no change? 25tter place 43worse place 30no change 2don't know 40. Some computers may have trouble operating when we reach the year 2000 because of a programming issue known as Y2K. Do you think the Y2K issue will cause major problems, minor problems, or no problems at all? 8%major problems 67minor problems 24no problems at all 1don't know 41. As a Y2K precaution, do you plan to stockpile food and water? (if yes: Is that a lot or some?) 9%yes, a lot 32yes, some 58no 1don't know - 39 - 42. As a Y2K precaution, do you plan to withdraw cash from the bank? (if yes: Is that a lot or some?) 7%yes, a lot 29yes, some 63no 1don't know 43. Some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain you are registered to vote? (if yes: Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or independent?) 35%yes, Democrat 28yes, Republican 3yes, other party 12yes, independent 22no, not registered 44. Would you consider yourself to be politically very liberal, somewhat liberal, middle-of-the-road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative? 10%very liberal 20somewhat liberal 33middle-of-the-road 25somewhat conservative 9very conservative 3don't know 45. Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics-a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 14%great deal 46fair amount 33only a little 7none 0don't know 46. Would you say you follow what’s going on in government and public affairs most of the time, some of the time, only now and then, hardly ever, or never? 31%most of the time 38some of the time 21only now and then 7hardly ever 3never 0don't know 47. How often would you say you vote-always, nearly always, part of the time, seldom, or never? 44%always 24nearly always 12part of the time 7seldom 13never 0don't know48. How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right? Just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time? 5%just about always 26most of the time 63only some of the time 5never (code don’t read) 1don't know 49. Do you yourself ever use a computer at home, at work, or at school? (if yes: Do you do this often or only sometimes?) 55%yes, often (ask q. 50) 21yes, sometimes (ask q. 50) 24no (skip to q.53) 50. Do you ever go on line to access the Internet or World Wide Web or to send or receive e-mail? (if yes: Do you do this often or only sometimes?) 43%yes, often (ask q. 51) 18yes, sometimes (ask q. 51) 15no (skip to q. 53) 24don’t use a computer (skip to q. 53) 51. Do you ever go on line to get news and information about California politics and elections? (if yes: Is that often or only sometimes?) 7%yes, often 15yes, sometimes 40no 38don’t use Internet/computer 52. Do you ever go on line to visit the web sites of the presidential candidates? (if yes: is that often or only sometimes?) 1%yes, often 8yes, sometimes 53no 38don’t use Internet/computer 53. Do you favor or oppose a system that allowed Californians to vote in elections over the Internet? 47vor 48oppose 5don’t know 54. If you had the choice, would you prefer to vote in elections (a) at the ballot box, (b) by absentee mail ballot, or (c) over the Internet? (rotate a, b, c) 46llot box 30Internet 23absentee ballot 1don’t know [55-63. Demographic questions] - 40 - PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEYAdvisory CommitteeRuben BarralesPresidentJoint Venture – Silicon Valley NetworkAngela BlackwellPresidentPolicy LinkNick BollmanSenior Program DirectorThe James Irvine FoundationMollyann BrodieVice PresidentKaiser Family FoundationMatt FongAttorneySheppard MullinWilliam HauckPresidentCalifornia Business RoundtableSherry Bebitch JeffeSenior AssociateClaremont Graduate UniversityMonica LozanoAssociate Publisher and Executive EditorLa OpiniónJerry LubenowDirector of PublicationsInstitute of Governmental StudiesUniversity of California, BerkeleyDonna LucasPresidentNelson CommunicationsMax NeimanDirectorCenter for Social andBehavioral ResearchUniversity of California,RiversideJerry RobertsManaging EditorSan Francisco ChronicleDan RosenheimNews DirectorKRON-TVRichard SchlosbergPresidentThe David and LucilePackard FoundationCarol StogsdillSenior Vice PresidentAPCO AssociatesCathy TaylorEditorial Page EditorOrange County RegisterSteven TobenProgram OfficerThe William and FloraHewlett FoundationRaymond L. WatsonVice Chairman of the BoardThe Irvine CompanyCarol WhitesidePresidentGreat Valley Center"
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