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object(Timber\Post)#3742 (44) { ["ImageClass"]=> string(12) "Timber\Image" ["PostClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Post" ["TermClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Term" ["object_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["custom"]=> array(5) { ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(12) "S_200MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "262686" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(94766) "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government Mark Baldassare Senior Fellow and Survey Director February 2000 Public Policy Institute of California The Public Policy Institute of California is a private, nonprofit research organization established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. The Institute conducts independent, objective, nonpartisan research on the economic, social, and political issues affecting Californians. The Institute's goal is to raise public awareness of these issues and give elected representatives and other public officials a more informed basis for developing policies and programs. Public Policy Institute of California 500 Washington Street, Suite 800 • San Francisco, California 94111 Telephone: (415) 291-4400 • Fax: (415) 291-4401 info@ppic.org • www.ppic.org Preface California is in the midst of historic changes that will profoundly affect its future. To understand these changes and how they influence voters’ choices at the ballot box, PPIC is conducting a series of comprehensive statewide surveys on the theme of "Californians and Their Government." This report presents the results of the fifth of these statewide surveys, which will continue up to the November 2000 election. The first four surveys in this series were conducted in September, November, and December of 1999 and in January 2000. (The November survey was a special edition, focusing on the Central Valley.) The purpose of the PPIC Statewide Survey is to develop an in-depth profile of the social, economic, and political forces affecting California elections and public policy preferences. The surveys are intended to provide the public, the media, and policymakers with relevant, non-partisan, advocacy-free information on the following: • What Californians know about government at all levels, how they rate elected officials and public services, and what government actions they prefer. • The public’s interest in civic affairs and politics, their current and preferred information sources, their attention to state political news, and their ratings of the media. • How growing regions and groups—such as the Central Valley, suburban regions, Latinos, and independent voters—affect the state’s elections and policy debates. • The political attitudes and perceptions that are tied to "voter distrust" of government and the social, economic, and political factors that explain low voter turnout in state elections. • The role of political, social, and economic attitudes in public support for citizens’ initiatives and government reform proposals. Copies of the earlier survey reports or copies of this report may be ordered by calling (800) 2325343 [mainland U.S.] or (415) 291-4415 [Canada, Hawaii, overseas]. -i- Contents Preface Press Release California 2000 Election California Policy Issues Political Trends Social and Economic Trends Survey Methodology Survey Questions and Results Survey Advisory Committee i v 1 11 17 25 33 35 40 - iii - Press Release CALIFORNIA VOTERS TO CANDIDATES: WE’RE LISTENING AND THIS IS WHAT WE WANT TO HEAR Gore Support Looks Solid, McCain Surging Most Californians Favor New Laws to Protect Internet Privacy SAN FRANCISCO, California, February 15, 2000 — An overwhelming majority of California’s likely voters have tuned in to the presidential race, and they have some ideas of their own about what candidates should be discussing between now and March 7th, according to a new survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC). Three weeks before California’s crucial primary election, 75% of the state’s likely voters say they are following news stories about the 2000 presidential race “very closely” or “fairly closely,” a 12-point jump since January. And although candidates have their own campaign platforms and priorities, voters list schools (19%), tax cuts (13%), health care and HMO reform (10%), Social Security and Medicare (8%), and federal spending (7%) as the issues they most want to hear the candidates talk about. Latinos and Democrats say they are most interested in hearing about education and health care, while Republicans and independents are especially interested in tax and spending issues. Gore is the top choice among voters who name schools, health care, and Social Security and Medicare. Bush leads among those who say taxes, while McCain is ahead among those who name the budget and spending. Interestingly, only 2 percent of likely voters say they most want to hear presidential candidates discuss campaign finance reform, a key topic for McCain and currently a source of heated debate between the Bush and McCain camps. “Presidential hopefuls have a golden opportunity in California today because voters are engaged in a way they haven’t been for years,” said PPIC Statewide Survey Director Mark Baldassare. “The challenge for these candidates is to address the specific concerns of Californians in a meaningful way over the next few weeks. If they do, they’ll find that state voters are all ears.” In the open primary, Vice President Al Gore (29%) leads Texas Governor George W. Bush (24%), Senator John McCain (17%), and former Senator Bill Bradley (10%) among likely voters. The biggest change since last month’s survey? A nine-point increase in support for McCain (8% to 17%). At the same time, support for Bush has declined by four points (28% to 24%). Gore and Bush remain far ahead in their parties, with Democratic voters giving Gore a 37-point lead over Bradley (52% to 15%) and Republicans favoring Bush over McCain by a 22-point margin (46% to 24%). However, McCain has managed to close the gap substantially among Republicans since PPIC’s January survey, when he trailed Bush by 45 points (56% to 11%). Social Liberals, Fiscal Conservatives Presidential candidates campaigning in California would do well to remember that state residents differ considerably from the nation on a number of key issues (abortion, death penalty, taxes, and school vouchers were examined in the January statewide survey). Californians are much more likely than those nationally to be empathetic to the plight of the poor. Fifty-three percent think that “poor people have hard lives because government benefits don’t go far enough to help them live decently,” while only 39 percent believe that those benefits make life easy for the poor. Nationally, more -v- Press Release Americans (45%) believe that government benefits to the poor come too easily. Californians are also more likely than the nation as a whole to believe that gays and lesbians should be allowed to serve openly in the military (69% to 57%). Compared to the nation, Californians are more likely to say that “government regulation of business often does more harm than good” (49% to 44%). Nevertheless, 46 percent of Californians and 48 percent of Americans believe that “government regulation of business is necessary to protect the public interest.” When considering how to reform the health care system to provide health care for all Americans, Californians tend to favor working within the current health care system rather than switching to a new system. Fifty-two percent of Californians — compared to 43 percent nationally — say it would be better to build on the existing employer-based health care system than to have all individuals buy their own insurance with the help of tax credits or a subsidy. However, on the issue of HMO regulation, California and the nation share similar views. Sixty-three percent of Californians and 64 percent nationally believe that “the federal government should create national standards to protect the rights of patients in HMOs and managed care plans.” Racial Diversity, Racial Harmony? Californians are increasingly aware of the state’s changing ethnic and racial makeup, and they are largely positive about race and ethnic relations in their communities. Seventy-one percent think that the racial and ethnic makeup of their region has been changing, with 38 percent saying that “a lot” of change has occurred in recent years. Eight in 10 Californians say that race and ethnic relations in their region are going “very well” or “somewhat well.” As they watch their communities change, Californians are also increasingly aware of the state’s growing immigrant population. Eighty-five percent of residents think the immigrant population in California has been increasing, while six in 10 say it has increased a lot. Although a large majority (82%) continue to view illegal immigration from Mexico as a “big problem” or “somewhat of a problem,” Californians today are much more likely to say that immigrants are a benefit to the state than they were two years ago (54% to 46%). There is, however, a glaring exception to this picture of racial and ethnic harmony. Many Californians believe that the police in their community do not treat all people equally. Fifty percent think that the practice of “racial profiling” — in which police are more likely to stop motorists of certain racial and ethnic groups — is widespread in their region. The belief that racial profiling is widespread is most prevalent in Los Angeles (60%). Forty-three percent of non-Hispanic whites see racial profiling as widespread, compared to 61 percent of Latinos and 62 percent of Latinos, Asians, and blacks combined. Internet Privacy a Serious Concern Concerns about privacy on the Internet run high in California, especially among Internet users. Thirty-seven percent of California adults — and 62 percent of Internet users in the state — say they have at some time decided not to purchase or use something on the Internet for fear of how their personal information might be used. When asked how concerned they are about threats to personal privacy when using the Internet, almost half (48%) of all Californians — and 80 percent of Internet users — say they are at least somewhat concerned. Internet privacy worries run highest in the San Francisco Bay Area, where Internet use is most prevalent. - vi - Press Release Reflecting these concerns, two in three Californians feel that existing laws do not sufficiently protect privacy on the Internet and that new laws are needed to ensure privacy. Regular Internet users support enacting new privacy laws by a similar margin. Previous PPIC Statewide Surveys have documented a profound “digital divide” in California. Two proposals aimed at reducing the divide among ethnic and income groups receive broad support from the public. Sixty-three percent favor giving companies tax credits if they provide low-cost computers or low-cost Internet access to poor households in California. Not surprisingly, support is higher among those groups adversely affected by the “digital divide.” Latinos are more likely to support the proposal than non-Hispanic whites (73% to 57%), and 68 percent of people with incomes below $20,000 favor the proposal compared to 60 percent of those with incomes over $80,000. A second proposal requiring California public schools to teach basic computer and Internet skills before eighth grade receives support from nearly nine in ten residents. About the Survey The purpose of the PPIC Statewide Survey is to develop an in-depth profile of the social, economic, and political forces affecting California elections and public policy preferences. PPIC will conduct large-scale public opinion surveys on a regular basis leading up to the November 2000 election. Findings are based on a telephone survey of 2,058 California adult residents interviewed from February 2 to February 10, 2000. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish. The sampling error for the total sample is +/- 2%. The sampling error for the 1,582 registered voters is +/- 2.5% and for the 1,014 likely voters is +/- 3.5%. For additional information on survey methodology, see page 33. Dr. Mark Baldassare is a senior fellow at PPIC and is the author of a forthcoming book on the changing social and political landscape of California (March 2000). He is founder and director of the Orange County Annual Survey at UC Irvine. For over two decades, he has conducted surveys for major news organizations, including the Orange County Edition of the Los Angeles Times, the Orange County Register, the San Francisco Chronicle, KCAL-TV, and KRON-TV. PPIC is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to objective, nonpartisan research on economic, social, and political issues that affect the lives of Californians. The Institute was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. ### - vii - California 2000 Election Presidential Primary After winning back-to-back primary victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, Vice President Al Gore has moved ahead in the California primary contest. Only a few weeks away from the March 7th open primary, Gore (29%) leads Texas Governor George W. Bush (24%), Senator John McCain (17%), and former Senator Bill Bradley (10%) among voters most likely to go to the polls. The biggest change since last month’s survey? A nine-point increase in support for McCain (8% to 17%) on the heels of his big victory in New Hampshire. At the same time, support for Bush has declined by four points (28% to 24%). Even with the open primary, the votes the candidates receive from voters within their respective parties are crucial because they determine the allocation of California’s delegates to the parties’ national nominating conventions. Gore and Bush remain far ahead in their parties. Democratic voters give Gore a 37-point lead over Bradley (52% to 15%), compared to a 27-point margin a month ago (48% to 21%). Gore is favored over Bradley about equally among Democratic men (50% to 14%) and women (53% to 16%). Republicans now favor Bush over McCain by a 22-point margin (46% to 24%), compared to a 45-point lead a month ago (56% to 11%). Bush has a bigger lead over McCain among Republican women (48% to 21%) than among Republican men (45% to 26%). Although crossover and independent voters will not play a role in determining the delegate commitments, their votes will be counted in determining the overall winner of the March 7th open primary. Democrats (19%) are more likely to support Republican candidates than Republicans (9%) are to support Democratic candidates. Independents currently favor Gore (23%) over McCain (18%), Bush (17%), and Bradley (12%). Gore gets his strongest support in Los Angeles County (38%), while Bush is ahead of all other candidates in the Central Valley (31%). Bradley’s level of support is higher in the San Francisco Bay area (17%) than elsewhere. One in six voters supports McCain across the state's major regions. Latinos strongly favor Gore (43%). Non-Hispanic whites favor Bush (30%) over Gore (22%), McCain (20%), and Bradley (11%). "If the Presidential Primary were held today, who would you vote for?" Al Gore George W. Bush John McCain Bill Bradley Alan Keyes Someone else Don't know Dec 98 31% 21 – – – 29 19 Sep 99 27% 27 4 7 – 21 14 Likely Voters Dec 99 24% 28 9 15 – 10 14 Jan 00 27% 28 8 13 – 10 14 Note: “someone else” includes candidates who have since left the race. Feb 00 29% 24 17 10 2 5 13 -1- California 2000 Election "If the Presidential Primary were held today, who would you vote for?" Likely Voters (February 2000) Party Region Al Gore George W. Bush John McCain Bill Bradley Alan Keyes Someone else Don't know Dem 52% 7 11 15 1 2 12 Rep 5% 46 24 4 3 5 13 Other 23% 17 18 12 2 11 17 Central Valley 25% 31 15 6 1 6 16 SF Bay Area 24% 20 17 17 1 6 15 Note: “someone else” includes candidates who have since left the race. Los Angeles 38% 22 16 8 1 5 10 Other Southern California 26% 26 16 11 3 5 13 Latino 43% 26 9 9 1 4 8 Leading Presidential Candidates When voters are asked who they would support if the November presidential election were between Gore and Bush—today’s leading candidates—it's pretty much a toss-up: 46 percent favor Gore and 45 percent favor Bush. These percentages have not shown much variation over time. In head-to-head match-ups, both candidates show strong support within their respective parties. Eight in 10 Democrats favor Gore, while eight in 10 Republicans support Bush. Independent voters are almost equally divided between Gore and Bush, with 15 percent still undecided. Bush’s support is more solid among men (86%) than among women (77%) in the GOP, while Gore is equally supported by Democratic men (79%) and women (78%). Gore leads Bush in the Democratic strongholds of Los Angeles County and the San Francisco Bay area. Bush has a big edge over Gore in the Central Valley and is slightly favored in the Southern California region outside of Los Angeles. Gore leads Bush among Latinos (60% to 35%), while non-Hispanic whites favor Bush over Gore (51% to 40%). "If these were the candidates in the Presidential Election in November 2000, who would you vote for?" George W. Bush Al Gore Don't know Dec 98 47% 45 8 Likely Voters Sep 99 Dec 99 49% 48% 44 44 78 Jan 00 46% 46 8 Feb 00 45% 46 9 -2- California 2000 Election George W. Bush Al Gore Don't know "If these were the candidates in the Presidential Election in November 2000, who would you vote for?" Likely Voters (February 2000) Party Region Dem 14% 78 8 Rep 82% 10 8 Other 41% 44 15 Central Valley 54% 38 8 SF Bay Area 40% 47 13 Los Angeles 40% 52 8 Other Southern California 48% 44 8 Latino 35% 60 5 Campaign Issues Candidates have their leading issues, but what do California voters most want to hear the presidential candidates talk about? The answer is schools (19%), followed by tax cuts (13%), health care (10%), Social Security and Medicare (8%), and federal spending (7%). Our surveys have consistently shown that education is the number one policy concern for Californians today. Many voters are also placing an emphasis on fiscal issues in the presidential election. Democrats are especially interested in hearing the candidates talk about education and health care, while Republicans and independents are more interested in tax and spending issues. A sizable number of residents in all of the major regions name education and taxes as their top concerns. Latinos stand out as particularly interested in hearing about schools and are less concerned about Social Security and Medicare. Gore is the top choice among voters who name schools, health care, and Social Security and Medicare. Bush leads among those who say taxes, while McCain is ahead among those who name the budget and spending. "Which one issue would you like to hear the candidates for President talk about between now and the March 7th California Primary?" (open-ended responses) Likely Voters (February 2000) Schools, education Taxes, cutting taxes Health care, HMO reform Social Security, Medicare Federal budget, spending Abortion Foreign policy, national security, defense Jobs, the economy, unemployment Environment, pollution Morals, family values Campaign finance reform Crime, gangs Guns, gun control Immigration, illegal immigration Other* Don't know 19% 13 10 8 7 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 7 10 *includes responses of 1% or less for issues such as housing, traffic, growth, and welfare -3- California 2000 Election "Which one issue would you like to hear the candidates for President talk about between now and the March 7th California Primary?" Likely Voters (February 2000) Party Region Schools, education Taxes, cutting taxes Health care, HMO reform Social Security, Medicare Federal budget, spending Abortion Foreign policy, defense Jobs, the economy, unemployment Environment, pollution Morals, family values Campaign finance reform Crime, gangs Guns, gun control Immigration, illegal immigration Other* Don't know Dem 24% 9 14 9 4 4 2 5 3 1 1 2 1 2 9 10 Rep 15% 18 8 7 8 5 5 3 1 4 1 3 2 3 7 10 Other 16% 13 6 6 10 2 6 4 6 3 3 1 1 2 10 11 Central Valley 16% 17 11 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 2 1 1 2 5 10 *includes responses of 1% or less for issues such as housing, traffic, growth, and welfare SF Bay Area 19% 12 10 8 5 2 4 6 2 3 3 3 1 1 9 12 Los Angeles 23% 11 9 6 6 5 6 4 3 3 1 2 1 3 6 11 Other Southern California 17% 13 12 8 6 3 4 3 2 3 1 2 3 3 12 8 Latino 29% 9 10 2 3 4 3 4 2 2 2 6 1 2 11 10 The Clinton Factor Is there a "Clinton factor" that will influence the outcome of the 2000 Presidential election? The evidence is mixed. Voters do distinguish between the President and his policies. Sixty-two percent say they like his policies and 36 percent say they dislike them. However, only 41 percent say they like the President, while 57 percent say they dislike him. About one-third of the voters like Clinton and his policies, and another one in three dislike both Clinton and his policies, but a sizable group (26%) say they like Clinton’s policies but don’t like him. While 57 percent of Democrats like Clinton and his policies, 30 percent say they like the policies but don’t like the man. Among Republicans, 59 percent dislike Clinton and his policies, but 19 percent like his policies although they dislike him. Independent voters are the most evenly divided in their views of Clinton: 34 percent like him and his policies; 30 percent dislike both; and 30 percent like the policies but not the man. In all regions, about one in four voters dislike Clinton but like his policies. Although he gets his highest marks from Latinos, 24 percent say they like his policies but don’t like him. Non-Hispanic whites are most likely to say they dislike Clinton and dislike his policies (37%), though many say they dislike Clinton but like his policies (27%). Among those who like Clinton and his policies, Gore is heavily favored (55%) over the other candidates in the presidential primary. For those who dislike both Clinton and his policies, Bush is -4- California 2000 Election the clear choice (46%) over others. Among the voters who dislike Clinton but like his policies, Gore leads (30%), but half of the voters divide their support among Bradley (17%), Bush (17%), and McCain (16%). "Which of these statements is closest to your view of President Bill Clinton?" Likely Voters (February 2000) I like Clinton and I like his policies I like Clinton but I dislike his policies I dislike Clinton but I like his policies I dislike Clinton and I dislike his policies Don't know 36% 5 26 31 2 I like Clinton and I like his policies I like Clinton but I dislike his policies I dislike Clinton but I like his policies I dislike Clinton and I dislike his policies Don't know Likely Voters (February 2000) Party Dem 57% Rep 14% Other 34% Central Valley 33% Region SF Bay Area Los Angeles Other Southern California Latino 34% 43% 33% 58% 455 2 7 5 54 30 19 30 23 27 28 27 24 7 59 30 41 28 21 34 14 231 1 4 3 10 U.S. Senate Race Little has changed in recent months regarding support for candidates in the open primary for the U.S. Senate. About half of the likely voters would vote for the incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein. Republican Congressman Tom Campbell now has 14 percent of the total vote, while GOP candidates Haynes and Horn have less support. One in four voters remains undecided. Among Democrats, 80 percent say they would vote for Feinstein in the March Primary, while fewer than 10 percent would cross over and vote for one of the Republicans. Republicans now favor Campbell (25%) over Feinstein (17%), Horn (10%), and Haynes (5%), but 40 percent are still undecided. Almost half of the independents say they will vote for Feinstein, while fewer than 10 percent would vote for any one of the Republican candidates, and 29 percent are undecided. Feinstein's support is strongest in the San Francisco Bay area and Los Angeles County. Campbell has the biggest lead over the other two Republicans in the San Francisco Bay area and the Central Valley, while the race for the GOP nomination is close in Southern California. Feinstein is the heavy favorite among Latinos (60%) but also has a strong showing among non-Hispanic whites (44%). -5- California 2000 Election A major reason that Feinstein is doing so well in the open primary is that she enjoys good job ratings. Six in 10 approve of her performance as a U.S. Senator; of those voters, 75 percent support her in the Senate race. Meanwhile, Campbell is not helped by the fact that nearly half disapprove of the job that Republican leaders are doing in Congress; of those voters, only 8 percent favor him. "If the March 2000 primary election for the U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for?" Dianne Feinstein Tom Campbell Ray Haynes Bill Horn Other Don't know Likely Voters Dec 99 Jan 00 50% 53% 12 12 34 23 32 30 26 Feb 00 49% 14 4 5 2 26 Dianne Feinstein Tom Campbell Ray Haynes Bill Horn Other Don’t know Likely Voters (February 2000) Party Dem 80% 5 1 1 1 12 Rep 17% 25 5 10 3 40 Other 44% 9 7 4 7 29 Central Valley 38% 16 5 1 2 38 Region SF Bay Area 57% 19 6 2 3 13 Los Angeles 52% 12 2 7 1 26 Other Southern California 44% 11 3 10 4 28 Latino 60% 10 3 6 5 16 Likely Voters (February 2000) "Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Dianne Feinstein is doing as a U.S. Senator?" Approve Disapprove Don't know "Do you approve or disapprove of the job that the Republican leaders in Congress are doing?" Approve Disapprove Don't know 59% 29 12 41% 48 11 -6- California 2000 Election Proposition 22: "Limit on Marriages" Initiative A solid majority of voters (57%) continue to support Proposition 22, the "Limit on Marriages" initiative, which would require that only a marriage between a man and a woman be recognized in the state, while 38 percent would vote “no" and only 5 percent are undecided. These results indicate no recent changes in voter sentiment. Yet, there are deep political divisions underneath the majority support for this controversial initiative. Democrats are evenly split on Proposition 22, Republicans are overwhelmingly supportive, and independent voters are more likely to say they will vote no than vote yes. San Francisco Bay area residents are equally divided on Proposition 22, but residents of the Central Valley (67%) and Southern California suburban region outside of Los Angeles (63%) strongly support it. Both Latinos (61%) and non-Hispanic whites (55%) are showing support for Proposition 22. The proponents of Proposition 22 have argued that their initiative is needed to close a “legal loophole” that would require California to recognize same-sex marriages performed in other states. Even though most voters would support Proposition 22, they are divided about the issue of legally recognizing same-sex marriages that are performed in other states. Forty-five percent think that the gay and lesbian marriages outside of the state should be legally recognized in California, while 49 percent think they should not. Democrats (57%) and independents (48%) are much more likely than Republicans (31%) to want out-of-state gay and lesbian marriages to be legally recognized in California. At the same time, even 23 percent of those who would recognize out-of-state gay marriages would vote yes on Proposition 22. While California voters may have mixed feelings about same-sex marriages, our surveys have also shown they have strong and consistent support for the civil rights of gays and lesbians, including their right to serve openly in the military: 69 percent of California voters say that gays and lesbians should serve openly in the military, while 26 percent are opposed. Democrats (77%), independents (75%), and Republicans (58%) all agree that gays and lesbians should serve openly in the military. Strong majorities in all regions and across racial and ethnic groups also support this position. A higher percentage of Californians than Americans generally hold this view: According to a Fox News survey earlier in 2000, 57 percent of Americans said that gays and lesbians should serve openly in the military. Nevertheless, only 46 percent of Californians in our survey who say gays and lesbians should serve openly in the military would vote no on Proposition 22. "Proposition 22—the ‘limit on marriages’ initiative on the March 2000 ballot—adds a provision to the family code providing that only a marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 22?" Yes No Don't know Dec 98* 64% 33 3 Sep 99* 63% 34 3 Likely Voters Dec 99 58% 38 4 Jan 00 57% 38 5 Feb 00 57% 38 5 * Referred to as "Definition of Marriage" initiative in earlier surveys. -7- California 2000 Election Yes No Don't know Likely Voters (February 2000) Party Dem 47% 48 5 Rep 74% 22 4 Other 43% 50 7 Central Valley 67% 29 4 Region SF Bay Area 48% 48 4 Los Angeles 54% 40 6 Other Southern California 63% 33 4 Latino 61% 37 2 Likely Voters (January 2000) "If gay and lesbian couples live in California and marry in other states, do you think their marriages should or should not be legally recognized in California?” Should 45% Should not 49 Don't know 6 "Do you think that gays and lesbians should or should not be allowed to serve openly in the military?" Should 69% Should not 26 Don't know 5 Proposition 26: Simple Majority Vote The fate of Proposition 26 remains as uncertain today as it was a month ago, even as the proponents have made their arguments. Many voters are still not convinced of the need to change the requirement for passing local school bonds from a two-thirds to a simple-majority vote. When voters are read the title and summary of Proposition 26, 44 percent say they would vote yes and 47 percent say they would vote no. These results are almost identical to those of a month ago. While a majority of Democrats (52%) would support the measure, most Republicans (57%) and a near majority of independent voters (49%) are opposed. At this time, the measure does not enjoy majority support in any of the state’s major regions. A majority of Latinos (54%) are in favor of the simple-majority vote for local school bonds, while 50 percent of non-Hispanic whites are opposed. Even though support for Proposition 26 now falls short of a majority, 64 percent of voters say they would vote for local school construction bonds if they appeared on their ballots this March. However, this does not reach the two-thirds majority required to pass local school bonds. Moreover, 28 percent who said they would vote for a local school bond in their district also said they would vote no on Proposition 26. Voters show even less favor for a measure being discussed for the November ballot that would ease the vote requirement for raising local sales taxes for transportation. Almost six in 10 voters are opposed to changing the requirement for special transportation taxes from two-thirds to a simple majority vote, while fewer than four in 10 are in favor. Opponents outnumber supporters across all regions, political groups, and racial and ethnic groups. -8- California 2000 Election "Proposition 26—the 'school facilities, local majority vote, bonds, taxes' initiative on the March 2000 ballot—would authorize local school districts to issue bonds for construction, rehabilitation, or replacement of school facilities if approved by a simple majority of local voters. It authorizes property taxes higher than the existing one percent limit by majority vote, rather than by the two-thirds vote currently required, to pay the bonds. The fiscal costs to local school districts are potentially in the hundreds of millions of dollars statewide each year within a decade, depending on voter actions on future local school bonds. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 26?" Likely Voters Sep 99* Dec 99* Jan 00 Yes 76% 64% 44% No 20 31 45 Don't know 4 5 11 * Wording did not reflect the most recent ballot title and summary. Feb 00 44% 47 9 Yes No Don't know Likely Voters (February 2000) Party Dem 52% 36 12 Rep 36% 57 7 Other 41% 49 10 Central Valley 41% 47 12 Region SF Bay Area 44% 46 10 Los Angeles 47% 43 10 Other Southern California 43% 49 8 Latino 54% 37 9 Likely Voters (February 2000) "If your local school district had a bond measure on the March ballot to pay for school construction projects, would you vote yes or no?” Yes 64% No 29 Don't know 7 "Do you favor or oppose allowing local sales tax increases to pay for local transportation projects to pass with a simple majority instead of a two-thirds vote?" Favor 36% Oppose 58 Don't know 6 -9- California 2000 Election News Stories About the Presidential Election Californians are finally paying attention to the presidential campaign. With the news about the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries in the last month, the number of Californians who are “very closely” or “fairly closely” following the elections jumped 12 points—from 63 percent to 75 percent. Most of the increase was among those who say they are “very closely” following the races. Today, only about one in four voters likely to go to the polls is not closely following the candidates. Democrats (74%), Republicans (74%), and independents (77%) are about equally likely to say they are at least fairly closely following the presidential primaries. Voters in the San Francisco Bay are more tuned in to the presidential race than those living elsewhere in the state. Latino voters (76%) are just as likely as non-Hispanic white voters (74%) at this time to indicate they are very or fairly closely following the 2000 election. Among the likely voters who are paying very close attention to the election news, Gore (32%) has the highest support, and Bush and McCain are tied (21%), followed by Bradley (11%). "How closely have you been following the news stories about candidates for the 2000 presidential election?" Very closely Fairly closely Not too closely Not at all closely Don't know Dec 99 16% 52 26 6 0 Likely Voters Jan 00 13% 50 30 6 1 Feb 00 21% 54 21 4 0 Very closely Fairly closely Not too closely Not at all closely Don't know Likely Voters (January 2000) Party Dem 20% 54 22 4 0 Rep 21% 53 22 4 0 Other 23% 54 17 6 0 Central Valley 22% 51 21 6 0 Region SF Bay Area 20% 61 15 4 0 Los Angeles 22% 52 21 5 0 Other Southern California 18% 52 26 4 0 Latino 18% 58 21 3 0 - 10 - California Policy Issues School Spending Despite their intense interest in candidates' views on education and a desire to raise California's national rank in spending per pupil, Californians aren't as enthused about raising taxes to achieve that goal. Half of California residents know that California is ranked below average in per-pupil spending, compared to other states. This knowledge has increased by four points in the past two years (47% to 51%). When residents are informed that California ranks fortieth in the nation in per pupil spending, 74 percent favor a proposed initiative that would require the state to reach the national average in five years. Support is strong across political groups, regions of the state, racial and ethnic groups, and parents with and without children in public schools. However, support drops to 56 percent and by nearly 20 points in all groups when people are told that to bring the state up to the national average in per pupil spending would require increasing taxes by about $4 billion a year. "Where do you think California ranks in spending per pupil compared to other states?" Near the top, Above average Average Near the bottom, Below average Don’t know All Adults April 98 Feb 00 14% 28 47 11 16% 24 51 9 "The National Education Association ranks California fortieth in the nation in per pupil spending. A proposed initiative for the November ballot would require California to meet the national average in per pupil spending within five years. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this initiative?" February 2000 Yes No Don’t know All Adults 74% 19 7 Democrat 80% 13 7 Party Registration Republican 65% 28 7 Other Voters 72% 20 8 Not Registered to Vote 77% 14 9 Latino 79% 14 7 - 11 - California Policy Issues "The Legislative Analyst and State Director of Finance estimate that the initiative would result in tax increases of about $4 billion annually by 2005-2006. Knowing this, would you vote yes or no on an initiative to require California to meet the national average in per pupil spending within five years?" February 2000 Yes No Don’t know All Adults 56% 37 7 Democrat 62% 30 8 Party Registration Republican 48% 46 6 Other Voters 53% 39 8 Not Registered to Vote 57% 36 7 Latino 59% 35 6 Important Ingredients for Student Success Putting good teachers in the classroom is ranked by the highest percentage of Californians (35%) as the most important ingredient for students to succeed in California's K-12 schools. They rank class size (23%) and student family background (22%) as next most important for student success. Fewer think that success can be achieved with more testing and standards (10%) and more spending per pupil (5%). Belief that teachers' experience and education is the most important ingredient is even higher (40%) among people with children in public schools than it is among all Californians, while fewer of those with children in public schools believe that student family background is the biggest factor (19%). Although all groups rank teacher qualities as the most important factor, student family background ranks higher among non-Hispanic whites (25%) than Latinos (16%) or Latinos, Asians, and blacks combined (19%). The perception that teacher’s experience and education is the most important ingredient for student success varies little across regions. "Which of these factors do you think is the most important ingredient for students to succeed in California’s K-12 public schools? February 2000 Teacher’s experience and education Class size Per pupil spending Student family background Student testing and standards Other Don’t know All Adults 35% 23 5 22 10 2 3 Central Valley 35% 23 5 23 9 1 4 Region SF Bay Area Los Angeles 33% 37% 21 24 64 27 20 89 32 24 Other Southern California 35% 24 5 21 11 1 3 Latino 39% 21 5 16 16 0 3 - 12 - California Policy Issues Perceptions of Local School Resources Seventy-eight percent of Californians believe that schools in lower-income areas of the state do not have the same resources—including good teachers—as schools in wealthier areas, a perception equally held by parents with children in public schools (78%). At least 75 percent of people in every region see the state's system as offering unequal resources for wealthy areas and poorer areas. Seventy-eight percent of non-Hispanic whites, 76 percent of Latinos and 80 percent of Asians, Latinos, and blacks combined hold this view. Moreover, 70 percent of resident think that school districts with the lowest student test scores should be given more resources than other school districts. This policy preference is more prevalent in the San Francisco Bay area and Southern California than in the Central Valley, but it is strongly held across all regions. Sixty-four percent of non-Hispanic whites, 80 percent of Latinos and 79 percent of Asians, Latinos, and blacks combined want districts with the lowest test scores to get more resources than other districts. Among people with children in the public schools, 75 percent think that low-performing districts should be given more resources than other school districts. February 2000 "Do you think that schools in lower-income areas of the state have the same amount of resources—including good teachers—as schools in wealthier areas?" Yes No Don’t know "Do you think that school districts with the lowest student test scores in the state should or should not be given more resources than other school districts?" Should Should not Don’t know All Central Adults Valley Region SF Bay Area Los Angeles Other Southern California Latino 17% 78 5 20% 75 5 9% 86 5 19% 75 6 19% 77 4 20% 76 4 70% 25 5 63% 30 7 72% 22 6 74% 22 4 70% 27 3 80% 17 3 - 13 - California Policy Issues Ethnic and Race Relations Californians are increasingly aware that the racial and ethnic makeup of their regions is changing. Although most see race and ethnic relations as proceeding well, many perceive that "racial profiling" is taking place when some motorists are stopped by police. Seventy-one percent think that the racial and ethnic makeup of their region has been changing, with 38 percent believing that "a lot" of change has occurred in recent years. This perception of racial and ethnic change has increased by five points over two years. Seventy-four percent of non-Hispanic whites see the racial and ethnic makeup of their region changing, compared to 64 percent of Latinos and 65 percent of Latinos, Asians, and blacks combined. There is some variation across regions: 74 percent in the Southern California suburban region, 72 percent in the San Francisco Bay area, 70 percent in the Central Valley, and 68 percent in Los Angeles perceive this change. Today, as in the October 1998 survey, about eight in 10 Californians say that race and ethnic relations in their region are going "very well" or "somewhat well," and this varies little across regions or racial and ethnic groups. Nevertheless, many people believe that the police in their region do not treat ethnic and racial groups equally. Fifty percent think that the practice of "racial profiling"—in which police are more likely to stop motorists of certain racial and ethnic groups—is widespread in their region. In a national survey by Gallup in 1999, 59 percent of Americans thought that racial profiling was widespread. In California, the belief that racial profiling is widespread is most prevalent in Los Angeles (60%), while the belief that racial profiling is not widespread is most common in the Central Valley (47%). Forty-three percent of non-Hispanic whites see racial profiling as widespread, compared to 61 percent of Latinos and 62 percent of Latinos, Asians, and blacks combined. "In the past few years, do you think the racial and ethnic makeup of your region has been changing a lot, somewhat, very little, or not at all?" A lot Somewhat Very little Not at all Don’t know All Adults Oct 98 36% 30 20 12 2 Feb 00 38% 33 19 7 3 "It has been reported that some police officers stop motorists of certain racial and ethnic groups because the officers believe that these groups are more likely than others to commit certain crimes. Do you believe that this practice, known as racial profiling, is widespread or not widespread in your region?" February 2000 Widespread Not widespread Don’t know All Central Adults Valley 50% 44% 42 47 89 Region SF Bay Area Los Angeles 46% 60% 42 32 12 8 Other Southern California 50% 43 7 Latino 61% 33 6 - 14 - California Policy Issues Immigration Californians are becoming increasingly aware of the growth of the immigrant population. At the same time, they feel more positive about the contributions of immigrants to the state's economy. Eighty-five percent of residents think the immigrant population in California has been increasing, while six in 10 say it has increased a lot. Only 11 percent think the immigrant population has stayed the same, and almost no one perceives this group as shrinking in size. The number of Californians who think the immigrant population in California has increased a lot in recent years has increased by 13 points since 1998.. Fifty-seven percent of Latinos and an equal percentage of non-Hispanic whites say the immigrant population is increasing a lot. This perception of a substantial growth varies somewhat across regions: 64 percent in the Southern California suburban region, 61 percent in Los Angeles, 58 percent in the San Francisco Bay area, and 56 percent in the Central Valley. Today, as in the December 1998 survey, about four in 10 Californians rate illegal immigration as a "big problem" in California. Nevertheless, Californians are feeling more positive about immigrants. Two years ago, the state's residents were split about equally on the question of whether immigrants were a benefit (46%) or a burden (42%) on society. Now, they are much more likely to say that immigrants are a benefit to the economy (54%) rather than a burden to government (34%). Residents of the San Francisco Bay area (58%) and Los Angeles (58%) are more likely than those in the rest of Southern California (50%) and the Central Valley (50%) to say that immigrants are a benefit. Today, fewer than half of non-Hispanic whites think that immigrants have mostly positive effects on the state (45%), while Latinos are overwhelmingly positive about the effects of immigration (78%). Still, two years ago, fewer non-Hispanic whites saw immigration as a positive (37%) and fewer Latinos were positive (66%) about immigrants' contributions. "In the past few years, do you think the overall immigrant population in California has been increasing, decreasing, or staying about the same?" All Adults Increasing a lot Increasing somewhat Decreasing Staying about the same Don’t know April 98 47% 26 2 21 4 Feb 00 60% 25 2 11 2 "Which of these two views is closest to yours?" Immigrants today are a benefit to California because of their hard work and job skills Immigrants today are a burden to California because they use public services Don’t know - 15 - April 98 46% 42 12 All Adults Feb 00 54% 34 12 California Policy Issues Job Performance Ratings for State Officials A slim majority of Californians continue to give Governor Gray Davis positive marks for his overall job performance in office: 51 percent rate his performance as excellent or good, 32 percent say he is doing a fair job, and 8 percent rate his job performance as poor. Nine percent are undecided. The positive ratings were similar in the September (51%), December (51%), and January (50%) surveys. The Governor gets excellent or good ratings from most Democrats (63%) and around four in 10 Republicans (43%) and independent voters (40%). Approximately half of the residents in all regions of the state give him positive ratings: 52 percent in the San Francisco Bay area, 52 percent in Los Angeles County, 51 percent in the rest of the Southern California region, and 48 percent in the Central Valley. Latinos (60%) are more likely than non-Hispanic whites (49%) to say they think Davis is doing an excellent or good job in office. Fewer Californians give positive marks to the State Legislature: 37 percent say it is doing an excellent or good job, 41 percent rate it as doing a fair job, and 10 percent say it is doing a poor job. Twelve percent have no opinion. The positive ratings are similar to those in the September (32%), December (37%), and January (34%) surveys. Democrats (44%) are more likely than independent voters or Republicans (29% each) to give high marks to the Legislature. However, there is little variation in excellent or good ratings across regions: 36% in Los Angeles County, 37% in the rest of the Southern California region, 37% in the San Francisco Bay area, and 35 percent in the Central Valley. Latinos (51%) are more likely than nonHispanic whites (31%) to give the State Legislature positive ratings for its job performance. "How would you rate the job performance of …" Governor Gray Davis Excellent Good Fair Poor Don't know California Legislature Excellent Good Fair Poor Don't know Sep 99 10% 41 34 9 6 2% 30 48 13 7 All Adults Dec 99 Jan 00 9% 42 31 12 6 9% 41 34 9 7 3% 34 41 13 9 3% 31 44 11 11 Feb 00 10% 41 32 8 9 3% 34 41 10 12 - 16 - Political Trends Political Attentiveness At the moment, Californians are more tuned into what is going on in government and public affairs than the rest of Americans and more tuned in than they were last fall. Eighty-seven percent say they follow what’s going on in the public policy arena most or some of the time. While Californians are no more likely than Americans in a 1999 survey by the Pew Research Center to say that they follow government and public affairs “most of the time” (38% to 39%), state residents are more likely to follow public affairs at least “some of the time” (49% to 32%). Californians' interest has also grown since last fall when the PPIC Statewide surveys found that 70 percent in September and 69 percent in December said they were at least sometimes following political news, compared to 87 percent today. Interest differs significantly across political groups. Californians who are not registered to vote are much less likely than those who are registered to follow government and public affairs “most of the time” (20% to 44%). Republicans (48%) are more likely than Democrats and other voters (42% each) to be highly attentive to politics. Latinos are less likely than non-Hispanic whites to very closely follow public affairs (27% to 43%). Regional differences are also evident: More people in the San Francisco Bay Area (42%) and Los Angeles (40%) than in the rest of Southern California (35%) or the Central Valley (36%) are following government and public affairs most of the time. "Would you say you follow what's going on in government and public affairs …" Most of the time Some of the time Hardly ever Never All Adults U.S.* California 39% 38% 32 49 20 10 93 * Source: National survey conducted by the Pew Research Center, 1999 Most of the time Some of the time Hardly ever Never All Adults 38% 49 10 3 Party Registration Democrats 42% 48 8 2 Republicans 48% 45 6 1 Other Voters 42% 45 11 2 Not Registered to Vote 20% 57 15 8 Latino 27% 53 14 6 - 17 - Political Trends Political Alienation Californians' political alienation is evident from the fact that 55 percent believe that most elected officials don't care about what people like themselves think. However, they seem less alienated than Americans nationally: 43 percent of Californians say that elected officials do care what they think, while only 35 percent voiced that belief in a 1999 national survey by the Pew Research Center. Democrats (49%) are more likely than Republicans (43%), and other voters (36%) to believe that most elected officials care what they think. Latinos and non-Hispanic whites are about equally likely to believe that elected officials care, and there are virtually no differences in perception across regions: 44% in Los Angeles, 42 percent in the rest of Southern California, 44 percent in the San Francisco Bay area, and 42 percent in the Central Valley say that elected officials care about what people like them think. "Please tell me if the first statement or the second statement comes closer to your views ..." Most elected officials care about what people like me think Most elected officials do not care about what people like me think Don't know All Adults U.S.* California 35% 43% 60 55 52 * Source: National survey conducted by the Pew Research Center, 1999 Party Registration Most elected officials care about what people like me think Most elected officials do not care about what people like me think Don't know All Adults 43% 55 2 Democrats 49% 49 2 Republicans 43% 56 1 Other Voters 36% 62 2 Not Registered to Vote Latino 40% 45% 56 51 44 - 18 - Political Trends Government Regulation of Business Californians are about as likely to say that “government regulation of business often does more harm than good” (49%) as to agree that “government regulation is necessary to protect the public interest” (46%). They are also slightly more negative about regulation than Americans generally. According to a national survey by the Pew Research Center in 1999, 44 percent of Americans believe that government regulation of business does more harm than good. Attitudes toward regulations differ by party: Democrats (56%) and independents (46%) are much more likely than Republicans (31%) to think that government regulation of business is needed to protect the public interest. Latinos (57%) are more likely than non-Hispanic whites (41%) to support the regulation of business. Regionally, residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (51%) and Los Angeles (48%) are more likely than those living in the rest of Southern California (42%) and the Central Valley (44%) to agree that government regulation of business is necessary. "Please tell me if the first statement or the second statement comes closer to your views ..." Government regulation of business is necessary to protect the public interest Government regulation of business often does more harm than good Don't know All Adults U.S.* California 48% 46% 44 49 85 * Source: National survey conducted by the Pew Research Center, 1999 Government regulation of business is necessary to protect the public interest Government regulation of business often does more harm than good Don't know Party Registration All Adults Democrats Republicans Other Voters 46% 56% 31% 46% Not Registered to Vote Latino 50% 57% 49 39 55 65 50 42 36 4 4 87 - 19 - Political Trends Government Benefits for the Poor Californians seem to have more sympathy than Americans generally for the poor. Fifty-three percent of Californians believe that poor people have hard lives because government benefits don’t go far enough, while 39 percent think they have easy lives because of government benefits. In contrast, a national survey by the Pew Research Center in 1999 found that 42 percent of Americans think that poor people have hard lives, while 45 percent believe they have easy lives. However, there is a partisan split among Californians: 53 percent of Republicans think that the poor have it easy because of government benefits, compared to 28 percent of Democrats and 40 percent of other voters. There are also ethnic and regional differences: Latinos are more likely than non-Hispanic whites to think that the poor have hard lives because government benefits do not go far enough (58% to 48%). People living in the San Francisco Bay area (57%) and Los Angeles (57%) are more likely than those in the rest of Southern California (51%) and the Central Valley (46%) to share that view. "Please tell me if the first statement or the second statement comes closer to your views ..." Poor people today have it easy because they can get government benefits without doing anything in return Poor people have hard lives because government benefits don’t go far enough to help them live decently Don't know All Adults U.S.* California 45% 39% 42 53 13 8 * Source: National survey conducted by the Pew Research Center, 1999 Poor people today have it easy because they can get government benefits without doing anything in return Poor people have hard lives because government benefits don’t go far enough to help them live decently Don't know All Adults 39% 53 8 Democrats 28% 64 8 Party Registration Republicans Other Voters 53% 40% 36 53 11 7 Not Registered to Vote Latino 39% 35% 55 58 67 - 20 - Political Trends Government Involvement in HMOs and Managed Health Care Californians' concerns about managed care is evident from the fact that almost two-thirds believe that the federal government should create national standards to protect the rights of patients in HMOs and managed health care plans. The results are almost identical to a national survey by the Pew Research Center in 1999. However, Californians' support for patients' rights does vary across political groups: 75 percent of Democrats, 45 percent of Republicans, and 61 percent of other voters think that the federal government should create standards to protect patients' rights. Latinos (75%) are more supportive than non-Hispanic whites (57%) of federal protection for patients' rights. Los Angeles residents (71%) are more likely than those living in the rest of Southern California (61%), the San Francisco Bay area (60%), and the Central Valley (59%) to favor national standards for patients rights. "Should the federal government create national standards to protect the rights of patients in HMOs and managed health care plans, or would this get the federal government too involved in health care?" All Adults U.S.* California Federal government should create standards Federal government would be too involved 64% 30 63% 33 Don't know 64 * Source: National survey conducted by the Pew Research Center, 1999 Federal government should create standards Federal government would be too involved Don't know All Adults 63% 33 4 Democrats 75% 22 3 Party Registration Republicans Other Voters 45% 61% 51 36 43 Not Registered to Vote Latino 70% 75% 26 22 43 - 21 - Political Trends Government Health Care for the Uninsured When asked their preference for providing guaranteed health care coverage for all Americans, 52 percent of Californians feel that it would be better to build on the existing health care system, while 41 percent think that it would be better to switch to a system in which all individuals would buy their own insurance with the help of tax credits or a subsidy. In a national survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation earlier this year, 43 percent of Americans said that they preferred building on the current health care system in seeking a way to extend health care coverage for the uninsured. Democrats (58% to 34%) and independent voters (52% to 43%) are more in favor of building on the current system than switching to a new system, while Republicans (46% each) are equally likely to want to build on the current health care system as they are to want to switch to a new health insurance system. Latinos (56%) are a little more likely than non-Hispanic whites (50%) to favor building on the current health care system. Those living in Los Angeles (55%) and the Central Valley (55%) express a slightly higher preference for building on the current system than those in the San Francisco Bay area (51%) and the Southern California suburban region (50%). "Which of the following two options do you think would be the better way to guarantee health insurance coverage for Americans …" Building on the current system in which most working people get health coverage through an employer, and the government covers the cost of insurance for the poor and unemployed Switching to a system in which all individuals would buy their own health insurance but would receive a tax credit or subsidy to help them with the cost of the plan Neither (volunteered) Don't know * Source: National survey conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation, 2000 All Adults U.S.* California 43% 52% 38 41 11 3 84 Build on current system Switch to new system Neither (volunteered) Don't know Party Registration All Adults 52% 41 3 4 Democrats 58% 34 3 5 Republicans 46% 46 3 5 Other Voters 52% 43 2 3 Not Registered to Vote 53% 42 1 4 Latino 56% 40 1 3 - 22 - Political Trends Western Europe and Asia Although the Golden State is often described as the “Gateway to Asia,” Californians are more likely to say that Western European nations (47%) are more important than Asian nations (39%) for U.S. interests. In the San Francisco Bay Area, more people think that Asia rather than Western Europe is most important to U.S. interests (44% to 40%). In Los Angeles, residents are almost equally likely to say Western Europe (45%) and Asia (42%). However, Western Europe is perceived as more important than Asia in the Central Valley (49% to 33%) and the Southern California suburbs (49% to 40%). Latinos (55%) are more likely than non-Hispanic whites (47%) to say that the nations of Western Europe are more important to U.S. interests. Democrats (48%) and Republicans (51%) both perceive Western Europe as most important. In a national survey by Potomac Associates in 1999, 45 percent of Americans said that Western European ties were most important to U.S. interests. Californians are more likely to think of Japan (49%) rather than China (36%) when they are asked to name the Asian country that is most important to California’s economy. Russia, South Korea, and other countries are infrequently thought of as the major player in the state’s economy. Democrats (53%) and Republicans (52%) are equally likely to name Japan. Latinos (49%) and non-Hispanic whites (50%) have similar perceptions of Japan’s significance to the state's economy. About half of the residents in every major region think of Japan as the most important Asian country for California’s economy. "The United States has strong political, economic, and national defense ties with nations in Western Europe and Asia. From the standpoint of promoting our own political, economic, and national defense interests, which do you think are more important to the U.S.—nations in Western Europe or nations in Asia?" All Adults Nations in Western Europe Nations in Asia Other answer, Don't know 47% 39 14 Central Valley 49% 33 18 Region San Francisco Bay Area 40% 44 16 Los Angeles 45% 42 13 Other Southern California Latino 49% 40 11 55% 32 13 "Thinking of all Asian countries, which one country in this region do you think is the most important to California's economy?" All Adults Japan China South Korea Russia Another country Don’t know 49% 36 3 2 2 8 Central Valley 48% 35 3 1 3 10 Region San Francisco Bay Area 49% 38 2 2 1 8 Los Angeles 50% 34 4 2 1 9 Other Southern California Latino 48% 38 3 3 1 7 49% 32 4 4 1 10 - 23 - Social and Economic Trends Mood of the State Californians remain highly positive about the state. Sixty-five percent say that things are going in the right direction in California. The mood is brighter in the San Francisco Bay area than in other regions and brighter among Latinos (71%) than non-Hispanic whites (63%). Californians remain optimistic about the prospects for the state’s economy this year. Nearly eight in ten say that they expect good financial times over the next 12 months. This financial optimism is slightly lower in the Central Valley than in other regions of the state and is identical for Latinos and non-Hispanic whites. "Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?" Right direction Wrong direction Don't know May 98 56% 34 10 Sep 98 57% 34 9 Oct 98 62% 30 8 All Adults Dec 98 Sep 99 Dec 99 63% 61% 62% 28 34 31 9 57 Jan 00 66% 26 8 Feb 00 65% 27 8 February 2000 Right direction Wrong direction Don't know All Adults 65% 27 8 Central Valley 61% 30 9 Region SF Bay Area 70% 23 7 Los Angeles 66% 26 8 Other Southern California 62% 29 9 Latino 71% 22 7 "Do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?" Good times Bad times Don't know All Adults Sep 99 Dec 99 72% 76% 23 19 55 Feb 00 78% 15 7 February 2000 Good times Bad times Don't know All Adults 78% 15 7 Central Valley 74% 18 8 Region SF Bay Area 80% 13 7 - 25 - Los Angeles 77% 16 7 Other Southern California 79% 13 8 Latino 77% 19 4 Social and Economic Trends Computers and the Internet Although almost three-fourths of Californians today have used a computer and about two-thirds have used the Internet at some time, there are considerable differences in use across age and ethnic groups and income and education levels. Seventy-two percent of Californians say they have used a computer, with 57 percent saying they "often" use a computer at home, school, or work. Sixty percent have used the Internet at some time, with 47 percent using it "often." Frequent computer use is highly evident among those 18 to 54 years old (65%), while it is much less common among those 55 and older (36%). Latinos are much less likely than non-Hispanic whites to use computers on a frequent basis (35% to 63%). As for income, 26 percent of those with incomes under $20,000 often use computers, compared to 84 percent of those with incomes of $80,000 or more. Similarly, 30 percent of those with a high school education or less are frequent computer users, compared to 75 percent of college graduates. As with overall computer use, frequent Internet use is much higher among California adults who are 18 to 54 (54%), while it is more rare among those who are 55 and older (27%). Latinos lag far behind non-Hispanic whites in frequent use of the Internet (26% to 52%). Frequent Internet use also increases with higher household income and education: Twenty-one percent of those with household incomes under $20,000 often use the Internet, compared to 75 percent of those with incomes of $80,000 or more. Similarly, only 21 percent of those with a high school education or less are frequent Internet users, compared to 65 percent of those with a college education or higher. February 2000 "Do you ever use a computer at home, at work, or at school?" Yes, often Yes, sometimes No, don't use computers "Do you ever go on line to access the Internet or World-Wide Web?" Yes, often Yes, sometimes No, but do use computers No, don't use computers All Adults 57% 15 28 47% 13 12 28 18 to 34 64% 18 18 54% 16 12 18 Age 35 to 54 55 & Older Latino 66% 13 21 36% 13 51 35% 20 45 53% 15 11 21 27% 9 13 50 26% 13 17 44 - 26 - Social and Economic Trends Visiting Websites As California governments consider the “California eGovernment Plan” recently offered by the California Secretary of State, it is important to take stock of the percentage and demographic characteristics of people who are currently accessing various government and private websites. Californians today are more likely to use the Internet to visit retail websites than to visit government websites: 42 percent say they visit retail websites offering consumer products at least sometimes, compared to 33 percent who visit government websites and 32 percent who visit financial websites. Moreover, those who visit financial (14%) and retail (13%) websites are more likely to do so “often” in comparison to those who say they “often” visit government websites (8%). The California trends in visiting private-sector websites are similar to those found in a national survey by Harris in 1999. There are no comparable data from national studies on visits to government websites. Also significant for California government is the “digital divide” in visits to these kinds of websites. A lower percentage of Latinos than non-Hispanic whites are visiting government websites (18% to 37%), retail websites (25% to 46%), and financial websites (20% to 35%). An even larger divide is found across income groups; those earning less than $20,000 are much less likely than those earning more than $80,000 to visit government websites (10% to 57%), retail websites (21% to 67%), and financial websites (10% to 59%). Similarly, those with a high school education or less are far less likely than those with a college degree or higher to visit government websites (12% to 51%), retail websites (22% to 59%), and financial websites (13% to 47%). There are also age differences, with those 55 and older being much less likely than those who are under 54 to visit government websites (19% to 37%), retail websites (22% to 49%), and financial websites (17% to 37%). February 2000 "Do you ever go on line to visit government websites, such as federal, state, or local agencies?" Yes, often Yes, sometimes No Don't use Internet "Do you ever go on line to visit retail websites, such as stores or catalogs offering consumer products?" Yes, often Yes, sometimes No Don't use Internet "Do you ever go on line to visit financial web sites, such as banks, credit cards, and investment firms?" Yes, often Yes, sometimes No Don't use Internet - 27 - All Adults 8% 25 27 40 13% 29 18 40 14% 18 28 40 Social and Economic Trends "Do you ever go on line to visit government websites, such as federal, state, or local agencies?" February 2000 All Adults Education Income Latino Yes, often Yes, sometimes No Don't use Internet HS or Less 2% 10 19 69 Some College College or Higher 7% 14% 24 37 33 30 35 19 Under $20,000 3% 7 21 69 $20,000 to $40,000 to $39,999 $79,999 4% 11% 22 29 26 30 48 30 Above $80,000 14% 43 32 11 3% 15 20 62 "Do you ever go on line to visit retail websites, such as stores or catalogs offering consumer products?" February 2000 All Adults Education Income Latino Yes, often Yes, sometimes No Don't use Internet HS or Less 8% 14 9 69 Some College 13% 29 22 35 College or Higher 17% 42 22 19 Under $20,000 8% 13 10 69 $20,000 to $40,000 to $39,999 $79,999 10% 14% 21 37 21 19 48 30 Above $80,000 22% 45 22 11 11% 14 13 62 "Do you ever go on line to visit financial web sites, such as banks, credit cards, and investment firms?" February 2000 All Adults Education Income Latino Yes, often Yes, sometimes No Don't use Internet HS or Less 5% 8 18 69 Some College 12% 20 33 35 College or Higher 23% 24 34 19 Under $20,000 4% 6 21 69 $20,000 to $39,999 8% 13 31 48 $40,000 to $79,999 18% 21 31 30 Above $80,000 30% 29 30 11 8% 12 18 62 - 28 - Social and Economic Trends Digital Divide Proposals Two proposals for reducing the “digital divide” that are part of the Secretary of State’s recent “California eGovernment Plan” have the enthusiastic support of the public. One of the proposals calls for giving tax credits to companies that provide low-cost computers or Internet access to low-income households in California. Sixty-three percent of Californians say they are in favor of such a program. Support for the proposal is higher in Los Angeles County (68%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (66%), but it is strong in all regions. Not surprisingly, support is also higher among those groups adversely affected by the “digital divide.” Latinos are more likely to support the proposal than non-Hispanic whites (73% to 57%), and 68 percent of people with incomes below $20,000 favor the proposal compared to 60 percent of those with incomes over $80,000. Still, a majority in all groups favor this idea. A second proposal recently offered for bridging the “digital divide” would require California public schools to teach basic computer and Internet skills to students before they graduate from the eighth grade. This proposal enjoys overwhelming support, with nine in ten Californians saying they favor the proposal. Support for the proposal is consistently high across all regions, racial and ethnic, income, education, and age groups. There is equally strong support for these two proposals for bridging the “digital divide” among those who do and do not currently use computers and the Internet. "Do you favor or oppose giving companies tax credits if they provide low-cost computers or low-cost Internet access to low-income households in California?" Favor Oppose Don't know "Do you favor or oppose requiring California public schools to teach basic computer and Internet skills before students graduate from the eighth grade?" Favor Oppose Don't know All Adults 63% 30 7 89% 9 2 Central Valley 58% 35 7 87% 12 1 Region SF Bay Los Area Angeles Other Southern California Latino 66% 27 7 68% 24 8 60% 33 7 73% 19 8 91% 8 1 90% 7 3 90% 8 2 90% 8 2 - 29 - Social and Economic Trends The Internet and Privacy Issues As Internet use becomes more prevalent, a growing area of both private and public policy concern is how personal information might be used and threats to privacy. Thirty-seven percent of all California adults say they have decided not to purchase or use something on the Internet because of concerns about how their personal information might be used. Among Internet users, 62 percent have at least sometimes decided against an on-line use or purchase because of their privacy concerns. In a 1999 national survey by Harris, a similar six in 10 Americans who use the Internet reported deciding not to use or buy something while visiting websites because of concerns about how their personal information might be used. When asked how concerned they are about threats to personal privacy when using the Internet, almost half (48%) of all Californians say they are at least somewhat concerned. Among Internet users, 80 percent are at least somewhat concerned about threats to their personal privacy while on the Internet. In the same 1999 national survey by Harris, nine in 10 Americans who use the Internet said they are concerned about threats to their personal privacy while using the Internet. Concerns about Internet privacy are highest in the San Francisco Bay Area, where Internet use is most prevalent, and lowest in the Central Valley, where Internet use is least common. Forty-one percent of Bay Area residents are at least somewhat concerned about the use of personal information, compared to 33 percent in the Central Valley; 56 percent are at least somewhat concerned about threats to privacy in the San Francisco Bay area, compared to 44 percent in the Central Valley. Concerns about the Internet and privacy also follow the demographic trends in Internet use. Only 24 percent of Latinos say they have decided not to purchase something on the Internet because of concerns about the use of their personal information, as compared to 39 percent of non-Hispanic whites. Similarly, 31 percent of Latinos are concerned about threats to their privacy on the Internet, while more than half (53%) of non-Hispanic whites have these concerns. Reflecting their concerns about the Internet and privacy, two in three Californians feel that there should be new laws to protect privacy on the Internet and that existing laws are not sufficient. Support for new Internet privacy laws is consistent across all regions. However, despite fewer concerns about the Internet and privacy, Latinos are more likely than non-Hispanic whites to feel that new laws protecting privacy on the Internet are necessary (74% to 50%). Among Internet users and nonusers, a similar two in three believe that new laws are needed to protect privacy. - 30 - Social and Economic Trends February 2000 All Adults "Have you ever decided not to use or buy something on a web site because you were not sure how your personal information might be used?" Yes, often 20% Yes, sometimes 17 No 23 Don't use Internet 40 "How concerned are you about threats to your personal privacy when you are using the Internet?" Very concerned 24% Somewhat concerned 24 Not concerned 12 Don't use Internet 40 Central Valley 20% 13 22 45 21% 23 12 44 Region SF Bay Los Area Angeles Other Southern California Latino 19% 22 27 32 23% 12 22 43 20% 17 24 39 13% 12 14 61 24% 32 12 32 28% 19 10 43 25% 25 11 39 18% 14 7 61 "Which of the following is closest to your view: (a) there should be new laws to protect privacy on the Internet, or (b) existing laws are sufficient to protect privacy on the Internet?" (asked of all residents) February 2000 New laws to protect privacy Existing laws are sufficient Don't know All Adults 67% 24 9 Central Valley 68% 22 10 Region SF Bay Area Los Angeles 61% 68% 28 22 11 10 Other Southern California Latino 70% 74% 23 19 77 - 31 - Survey Methodology The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, with research assistance from Jonathan Cohen and Christopher Hoene. The findings of this survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,058 California adult residents interviewed from February 2 to February 10, 2000. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers, ensuring that both listed and unlisted telephone numbers were called. All telephone exchanges in California were eligible for calling. Telephone numbers in the survey sample were called up to five times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing by using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Each interview took an average of 20 minutes to complete. Interviewing was conducted in English or Spanish. Maria Tello translated the survey into Spanish. We used recent U.S. Census and state figures to compare the demographic characteristics of the survey sample with characteristics of California's adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to U.S. Census and state figures. The survey data in this report were statistically weighted to account for any demographic differences. The sampling error for the total sample of 2,058 adults is +/- 2 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 2 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger. The sampling error for the 1,582 registered voters is +/- 2.5% and for the 1,014 likely voters is +/- 3.5%. Sampling error is just one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. Throughout the report, we refer to four geographic regions. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “SF Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, and "Other Southern California" includes the mostly suburban regions of Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. These four regions were chosen for analysis because they are the major population centers of the state, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population; moreover, the growth of the Central Valley and “Other Southern California” regions have given them increasing political significance. We present specific results for Latinos because they account for about 24 percent of the state's adult population and constitute one of the fastest growing voter groups. For likely voters, the sample sizes for the African American and Asian subgroups are not large enough for separate statistical analysis. We contrast the opinions of Democrats and Republicans with "other" or “independent” registered voters. This third category includes those who are registered to vote as “decline to state” as well as a fewer number who say they are members of other political parties. In some cases we compare PPIC Statewide Survey responses to responses recorded in national surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center in 1999, Gallup in 1999, Harris in 1999, Potomac Associates in 1999, Fox News Opinion Dynamics in 2000, and Kaiser Family Foundation in 2000. We used 1998, 1999, and 2000 PPIC Statewide Surveys to analyze trends over time in California. - 33 - PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT FEBRUARY 2 – FEBRUARY 10, 2000 2,058 CALIFORNIA ADULT RESIDENTS; ENGLISH AND SPANISH MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 2% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE [Responses recorded for first 15 questions are from likely voters. All other responses are from all adults.] 1. In March 2000, California will hold an open primary. That means the voters will be able to vote for anyone they choose, regardless of the candidate’s party. If the presidential primary were held today, who would you vote for? (rotate names; then ask, “or someone else?”) 29% Al Gore, Democrat 24 George W. Bush, Republican 17 John McCain, Republican 10 Bill Bradley, Democrat 2 Alan Keyes, Republican 5 someone else (specify) 13 don't know 2. If these were the candidates in the presidential election in November 2000, who would you vote for? (rotate) 46% Al Gore, Democrat 45 George W. Bush, Republican 9 don't know 3. If these were the candidates in the presidential election in November 2000, who would you vote for? (rotate) 45% George W. Bush, Republican 42 Bill Bradley, Democrat 13 don't know 4. Which one issue would you like to hear the candidates for President talk about between now and the March 7th California primary? 19% schools, education 13 taxes, cutting taxes 10 health care, HMO reform 8 Social Security, Medicare 7 federal budget, spending 4 abortion 4 foreign policy, national security, defense 4 jobs, the economy, unemployment 3 environment, pollution 3 morals, family values 2 campaign finance 2 crime, gangs 2 guns, gun control 2 immigration, illegal immigration 7 other (specify) 10 don't know 5. Which of these statements is closest to your views about President Bill Clinton? 36% I like Clinton and I like his policies 5 I like Clinton but I dislike his policies 26 I dislike Clinton but I like his policies 31 I dislike Clinton and I dislike his policies 2 don't know 6. If the March 2000 primary election for the U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for? (rotate names; then ask, “or someone else?”) 49% Dianne Feinstein, Democrat 14 Tom Campbell, Republican 5 Bill Horn, Republican 4 Ray Haynes, Republican 2 someone else (specify) 26 don't know 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Dianne Feinstein is doing as a U.S. Senator? 59% approve 29 disapprove 12 don't know 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the job that the Republican leaders in Congress are doing? 41% approve 48 disapprove 11 don't know 9. Proposition 22—the “limit on marriages” initiative on the March 2000 ballot—adds a provision to the family code providing that only a marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 22? 57% yes 38 no 5 don't know 10. If gay and lesbian couples live in California and marry in other states, do you think their marriages should or should not be legally recognized in California? 45% should 49 should not 6 don't know - 35 - 11. Do you think that gays and lesbians should or should not be allowed to serve openly in the military? 69% should 26 should not 5 don't know 12. Proposition 26—the “school facilities, local majority vote, bonds, taxes” initiative on the March 2000 ballot—would authorize local school districts to issue bonds for construction, rehabilitation, or replacement of school facilities if approved by a simple majority of local voters. It authorizes property taxes higher than the existing 1 percent limit by majority vote, rather than the two-thirds currently required, to pay the bonds. The fiscal cost to local school districts are potentially in the hundreds of millions of dollars statewide each year within a decade, depending on voter actions on future local school bonds. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 26? 44% yes 47 no 9 don't know 13. Suppose your local school district had a bond measure on the March ballot to pay for school construction projects. Would you vote yes or no? 64% yes 29 no 7 don't know 14. Do you favor or oppose allowing local sales tax increases to pay for local transportation projects to pass with a simple majority instead of a two-thirds vote? 36% favor 58 oppose 6 don't know 15. How closely have you been following the news stories about candidates for the 2000 presidential election—very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 21% very closely 54 fairly closely 21 not too closely 4 not at all closely 0 don't know 16. Do you think that things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 65% right direction 27 wrong direction 8 don't know 17. Do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 78% good times 15 bad times 7 don't know We have some questions about kindergarten through twelfth grade public schools in California. 18. Where do you think California ranks in spending per pupil? Compared to other state’s, is California’s spending near the top, above average, average, below average, or near the bottom? 6% near the top 10 above average 24 average 29 below average 22 near the bottom 9 don't know 19. The National Education Association ranks California fortieth in the nation in per pupil spending. A proposed initiative for the November ballot would require California to meet the national average in per pupil spending within five years. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this initiative? 74% yes 19 no 7 don't know 20. The Legislative Analyst and State Director of Finance estimate that the initiative would result in tax increases of about 4 billion dollars annually by 20052006. Knowing this, would you vote yes or no on an initiative to require California to meet the national average in per pupil spending within five years? 56% yes 37 no 7 don't know 21. Which of these factors do you think is the most important ingredient for students to succeed in California’s K-12 public schools? (rotate) 35% teacher’s experience and education 23 class size 5 per pupil spending 22 student family background 10 student testing and standards 2 other (specify) 3 don't know 22. Do you think that schools in lower-income areas of the state have the same amount of resources—including good teachers—as schools in wealthier areas? 17% yes 78 no 5 don't know - 36 - 23. Do you think that school districts with the lowest student test scores in the state should or should not be given more resources than other school districts? 70% should 25 should not 5 don't know 24. In the past few years, do you think the racial and ethnic makeup of your region has been changing a lot, somewhat, very little, or not at all? 38% a lot 33 somewhat 19 very little 7 not at all 3 don't know 25. Overall, how do you think the racial and ethnic groups in your region are getting along these days—very well, somewhat well, somewhat badly, or very badly? 23% very well 57 somewhat well 13 somewhat badly 5 very badly 2 don't know 26. It has been reported that some police officers stop motorists of certain racial and ethnic groups because the officers believe that these groups are more likely than others to commit certain crimes. Do you believe that this practice, known as racial profiling, is widespread or not widespread in your region? 50% widespread 42 not widespread 8 don't know 27. In the past few years, do you think that the overall immigrant population in California has been increasing, decreasing, or staying about the same? (if increasing: "is that a lot or somewhat?") 60% increasing a lot 25 increasing somewhat 2 decreasing 11 staying about the same 2 none of these answers, don't know 28. Which of these two views is closest to yours? (a) immigrants today are a benefit to California because of their hard work and job skills. (b) immigrants today are a burden to California because they use public services. 54% immigrants are a benefit 34 immigrants are a burden 12 neither, don't know 29. In the past few years, do you think that illegal immigration from Mexico to California has been a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem? 42% big problem 40 somewhat of a problem 16 not a problem 2 none of the above answers, don't know 30. How do you rate the job performance of Governor Gray Davis at this time? 10% excellent 41 good 32 fair 8 poor 9 don't know 31. How do you rate the job performance of the California Legislature at this time? 3% excellent 34 good 41 fair 10 poor 12 don't know I'm going to read some pairs of statements. As I read each pair, tell me if the first statement or the second statement comes closer to your views—even if neither is exactly right. 32. (a) most elected officials care what people like me think. (b) most elected officials don't care what people like me think. 43% most elected officials care 55 most elected officials don't care 2 don't know 33. (a) government regulation of business is necessary to protect the public interest. (b) government regulation of business often does more harm than good. 46% government regulation is necessary 49 government regulation does harm 5 don't know 34. (a) poor people today have it easy because they can get government benefits without doing anything in return. (b) poor people have hard lives because government benefits don’t go far enough to help them live decently. 39% poor people have it easy 53 poor people have hard lives 8 don't know 35. Should the federal government create national standards to protect the rights of patients in HMOs and managed health care plans, or would this get the federal government too involved in health care? 63% federal government should create standards 33 federal government would be too involved 4 don't know - 37 - 36. Which of the following two options do you think would be the better way to guarantee health insurance coverage for Americans? (a) building on the current system in which most working people get health coverage through an employer, and the government covers the cost of insurance for the poor and unemployed. (b) switching to a system in which all individuals would buy their own health insurance but would receive a tax credit or subsidy to help them with the cost of the plan. 52% build on current system 41 switch to another system 3 neither (volunteered) 4 don't know 37. The United States has strong political, economic, and national defense ties with nations in Western Europe and Asia. From the standpoint of promoting our own political, economic, and national defense interests, which do you think are more important to the United States—nations in Western Europe or nations in Asia? 47% nations in Western Europe 39 nations in Asia 14 don't know 38. Thinking of all Asian countries, which one country in this region do you think is the most important to California's economy? 49% Japan 36 China 3 South Korea 2 Russia 2 another country (specify) 8 don't know 39. Some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain you are registered to vote? (if yes: "are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or as an independent or decline-to-state?") 33% yes, Democrat 27 yes, Republican 3 yes, other party 14 yes, independent 23 not registered 40. Some people who plan to vote can’t always get around to it on election day. With your personal daily schedule in mind, are you absolutely certain to vote in the California primary on March 7th, will you probably vote, are the chances about 50-50, less than 50-50, or don’t you think you’ll vote on March 7th? 72% certain to vote 14 probably vote 10 50-50 chance 1 less than 50-50 2 don’t think will vote 1 don't know 41. Would you consider yourself to be politically very liberal, somewhat liberal, middle-of-the-road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative? 10% very liberal 21 somewhat liberal 33 middle-of-the-road 25 somewhat conservative 9 very conservative 2 don't know 42. Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics—a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 18% great deal 50 fair amount 27 only a little 5 none 43. Would you say you follow what's going on in government and public affairs most of the time, some of the time, hardly ever, or never? 38% most of the time 49 some of the time 10 hardly ever 3 never 44. How often would you say you vote—always, nearly always, part of the time, seldom, or never? 46% always 23 nearly always 12 part of the time 5 seldom 13 never 1 don't know 45. Do you yourself ever use a computer at home, at work, or at school? (if yes: "do you do this often or only sometimes?") 57% yes, often (ask q. 46) 15 yes, sometimes (ask q. 46) 28 no (skip to q. 53) 46. Do you ever go on line to access the Internet or World Wide Web or to send or receive e-mail? (if yes: "do you do this often or only sometimes?") 47% yes, often (ask q. 47) 13 yes, sometimes (ask q. 47) 12 no (skip to q. 52) 28 don’t use a computer (skip to q. 52) 47. Do you ever go on line to visit government web sites, such as federal, state, or local agencies? (if yes: "do you do this often or only sometimes?") 8% yes, often 25 yes, sometimes 27 no 40 don’t use Internet/computer - 38 - 48. Do you ever go on line to visit retail web sites, such as stores or catalogs offering consumer products? (if yes: "do you do this often or only sometimes?") 13% yes, often 29 yes, sometimes 18 no 40 don’t use Internet/computer 49. Do you ever go on line to visit financial web sites, such as banks, credit cards, and investment firms? (if yes: "do you do this often, or only sometimes?") 14% yes, often 18 yes, sometimes 28 no 40 don’t use Internet/computer 50. Have you ever decided not to use or buy something on a web site because you were not sure how your personal information might be used? (if yes: "do you do this often or only sometimes?") 20% yes, often 17 yes, sometimes 23 no 40 don’t use Internet/computer 51. How concerned are you about threats to your personal privacy when you are using the Internet—very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not concerned? 24% very concerned 24 somewhat concerned 12 not concerned 40 don’t use Internet/computer 52. Which of the following is closest to your view? (rotate a and b) (a) there should be new laws to protect privacy on the internet. (b) existing laws are sufficient to protect privacy on the internet. 67% new laws to protect privacy 24 existing laws are sufficient 9 don’t know What do you think of these proposals for increasing computer use and Internet access in California? 53. First, do you favor or oppose giving companies tax credits if they provide low-cost computers or low-cost Internet access to low-income households in California? 63% favor 30 oppose 7 don’t know 54. Do you favor or oppose requiring California public schools to teach basic computer and Internet skills before students graduate from the eighth grade? 89% favor 9 oppose 2 don’t know [55-63. Demographic questions.] - 39 - PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Advisory Committee Ruben Barrales President Joint Venture – Silicon Valley Network Angela Blackwell President Policy Link Nick Bollman Senior Program Director The James Irvine Foundation Mollyann Brodie Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Matt Fong Attorney Sheppard Mullin William Hauck President California Business Roundtable Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Associate Claremont Graduate University Monica Lozano Associate Publisher and Executive Editor La Opinión Jerry Lubenow Director of Publications Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley Donna Lucas President Nelson Communications Max Neiman Director Center for Social and Behavioral Research University of California, Riverside Jerry Roberts Managing Editor San Francisco Chronicle Dan Rosenheim News Director KRON-TV Richard Schlosberg President The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Carol Stogsdill Senior Vice President APCO Associates Cathy Taylor Editorial Page Editor Orange County Register Steven Toben Program Officer The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center - 40 -" } ["___content":protected]=> string(102) "

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" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(112) "https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-february-2000/s_200mbs/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(8085) ["ID"]=> int(8085) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:34:47" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(3174) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(8) "S 200MBS" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(8) "s_200mbs" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(12) "S_200MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "262686" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(94766) "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government Mark Baldassare Senior Fellow and Survey Director February 2000 Public Policy Institute of California The Public Policy Institute of California is a private, nonprofit research organization established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. The Institute conducts independent, objective, nonpartisan research on the economic, social, and political issues affecting Californians. The Institute's goal is to raise public awareness of these issues and give elected representatives and other public officials a more informed basis for developing policies and programs. Public Policy Institute of California 500 Washington Street, Suite 800 • San Francisco, California 94111 Telephone: (415) 291-4400 • Fax: (415) 291-4401 info@ppic.org • www.ppic.org Preface California is in the midst of historic changes that will profoundly affect its future. To understand these changes and how they influence voters’ choices at the ballot box, PPIC is conducting a series of comprehensive statewide surveys on the theme of "Californians and Their Government." This report presents the results of the fifth of these statewide surveys, which will continue up to the November 2000 election. The first four surveys in this series were conducted in September, November, and December of 1999 and in January 2000. (The November survey was a special edition, focusing on the Central Valley.) The purpose of the PPIC Statewide Survey is to develop an in-depth profile of the social, economic, and political forces affecting California elections and public policy preferences. The surveys are intended to provide the public, the media, and policymakers with relevant, non-partisan, advocacy-free information on the following: • What Californians know about government at all levels, how they rate elected officials and public services, and what government actions they prefer. • The public’s interest in civic affairs and politics, their current and preferred information sources, their attention to state political news, and their ratings of the media. • How growing regions and groups—such as the Central Valley, suburban regions, Latinos, and independent voters—affect the state’s elections and policy debates. • The political attitudes and perceptions that are tied to "voter distrust" of government and the social, economic, and political factors that explain low voter turnout in state elections. • The role of political, social, and economic attitudes in public support for citizens’ initiatives and government reform proposals. Copies of the earlier survey reports or copies of this report may be ordered by calling (800) 2325343 [mainland U.S.] or (415) 291-4415 [Canada, Hawaii, overseas]. -i- Contents Preface Press Release California 2000 Election California Policy Issues Political Trends Social and Economic Trends Survey Methodology Survey Questions and Results Survey Advisory Committee i v 1 11 17 25 33 35 40 - iii - Press Release CALIFORNIA VOTERS TO CANDIDATES: WE’RE LISTENING AND THIS IS WHAT WE WANT TO HEAR Gore Support Looks Solid, McCain Surging Most Californians Favor New Laws to Protect Internet Privacy SAN FRANCISCO, California, February 15, 2000 — An overwhelming majority of California’s likely voters have tuned in to the presidential race, and they have some ideas of their own about what candidates should be discussing between now and March 7th, according to a new survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC). Three weeks before California’s crucial primary election, 75% of the state’s likely voters say they are following news stories about the 2000 presidential race “very closely” or “fairly closely,” a 12-point jump since January. And although candidates have their own campaign platforms and priorities, voters list schools (19%), tax cuts (13%), health care and HMO reform (10%), Social Security and Medicare (8%), and federal spending (7%) as the issues they most want to hear the candidates talk about. Latinos and Democrats say they are most interested in hearing about education and health care, while Republicans and independents are especially interested in tax and spending issues. Gore is the top choice among voters who name schools, health care, and Social Security and Medicare. Bush leads among those who say taxes, while McCain is ahead among those who name the budget and spending. Interestingly, only 2 percent of likely voters say they most want to hear presidential candidates discuss campaign finance reform, a key topic for McCain and currently a source of heated debate between the Bush and McCain camps. “Presidential hopefuls have a golden opportunity in California today because voters are engaged in a way they haven’t been for years,” said PPIC Statewide Survey Director Mark Baldassare. “The challenge for these candidates is to address the specific concerns of Californians in a meaningful way over the next few weeks. If they do, they’ll find that state voters are all ears.” In the open primary, Vice President Al Gore (29%) leads Texas Governor George W. Bush (24%), Senator John McCain (17%), and former Senator Bill Bradley (10%) among likely voters. The biggest change since last month’s survey? A nine-point increase in support for McCain (8% to 17%). At the same time, support for Bush has declined by four points (28% to 24%). Gore and Bush remain far ahead in their parties, with Democratic voters giving Gore a 37-point lead over Bradley (52% to 15%) and Republicans favoring Bush over McCain by a 22-point margin (46% to 24%). However, McCain has managed to close the gap substantially among Republicans since PPIC’s January survey, when he trailed Bush by 45 points (56% to 11%). Social Liberals, Fiscal Conservatives Presidential candidates campaigning in California would do well to remember that state residents differ considerably from the nation on a number of key issues (abortion, death penalty, taxes, and school vouchers were examined in the January statewide survey). Californians are much more likely than those nationally to be empathetic to the plight of the poor. Fifty-three percent think that “poor people have hard lives because government benefits don’t go far enough to help them live decently,” while only 39 percent believe that those benefits make life easy for the poor. Nationally, more -v- Press Release Americans (45%) believe that government benefits to the poor come too easily. Californians are also more likely than the nation as a whole to believe that gays and lesbians should be allowed to serve openly in the military (69% to 57%). Compared to the nation, Californians are more likely to say that “government regulation of business often does more harm than good” (49% to 44%). Nevertheless, 46 percent of Californians and 48 percent of Americans believe that “government regulation of business is necessary to protect the public interest.” When considering how to reform the health care system to provide health care for all Americans, Californians tend to favor working within the current health care system rather than switching to a new system. Fifty-two percent of Californians — compared to 43 percent nationally — say it would be better to build on the existing employer-based health care system than to have all individuals buy their own insurance with the help of tax credits or a subsidy. However, on the issue of HMO regulation, California and the nation share similar views. Sixty-three percent of Californians and 64 percent nationally believe that “the federal government should create national standards to protect the rights of patients in HMOs and managed care plans.” Racial Diversity, Racial Harmony? Californians are increasingly aware of the state’s changing ethnic and racial makeup, and they are largely positive about race and ethnic relations in their communities. Seventy-one percent think that the racial and ethnic makeup of their region has been changing, with 38 percent saying that “a lot” of change has occurred in recent years. Eight in 10 Californians say that race and ethnic relations in their region are going “very well” or “somewhat well.” As they watch their communities change, Californians are also increasingly aware of the state’s growing immigrant population. Eighty-five percent of residents think the immigrant population in California has been increasing, while six in 10 say it has increased a lot. Although a large majority (82%) continue to view illegal immigration from Mexico as a “big problem” or “somewhat of a problem,” Californians today are much more likely to say that immigrants are a benefit to the state than they were two years ago (54% to 46%). There is, however, a glaring exception to this picture of racial and ethnic harmony. Many Californians believe that the police in their community do not treat all people equally. Fifty percent think that the practice of “racial profiling” — in which police are more likely to stop motorists of certain racial and ethnic groups — is widespread in their region. The belief that racial profiling is widespread is most prevalent in Los Angeles (60%). Forty-three percent of non-Hispanic whites see racial profiling as widespread, compared to 61 percent of Latinos and 62 percent of Latinos, Asians, and blacks combined. Internet Privacy a Serious Concern Concerns about privacy on the Internet run high in California, especially among Internet users. Thirty-seven percent of California adults — and 62 percent of Internet users in the state — say they have at some time decided not to purchase or use something on the Internet for fear of how their personal information might be used. When asked how concerned they are about threats to personal privacy when using the Internet, almost half (48%) of all Californians — and 80 percent of Internet users — say they are at least somewhat concerned. Internet privacy worries run highest in the San Francisco Bay Area, where Internet use is most prevalent. - vi - Press Release Reflecting these concerns, two in three Californians feel that existing laws do not sufficiently protect privacy on the Internet and that new laws are needed to ensure privacy. Regular Internet users support enacting new privacy laws by a similar margin. Previous PPIC Statewide Surveys have documented a profound “digital divide” in California. Two proposals aimed at reducing the divide among ethnic and income groups receive broad support from the public. Sixty-three percent favor giving companies tax credits if they provide low-cost computers or low-cost Internet access to poor households in California. Not surprisingly, support is higher among those groups adversely affected by the “digital divide.” Latinos are more likely to support the proposal than non-Hispanic whites (73% to 57%), and 68 percent of people with incomes below $20,000 favor the proposal compared to 60 percent of those with incomes over $80,000. A second proposal requiring California public schools to teach basic computer and Internet skills before eighth grade receives support from nearly nine in ten residents. About the Survey The purpose of the PPIC Statewide Survey is to develop an in-depth profile of the social, economic, and political forces affecting California elections and public policy preferences. PPIC will conduct large-scale public opinion surveys on a regular basis leading up to the November 2000 election. Findings are based on a telephone survey of 2,058 California adult residents interviewed from February 2 to February 10, 2000. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish. The sampling error for the total sample is +/- 2%. The sampling error for the 1,582 registered voters is +/- 2.5% and for the 1,014 likely voters is +/- 3.5%. For additional information on survey methodology, see page 33. Dr. Mark Baldassare is a senior fellow at PPIC and is the author of a forthcoming book on the changing social and political landscape of California (March 2000). He is founder and director of the Orange County Annual Survey at UC Irvine. For over two decades, he has conducted surveys for major news organizations, including the Orange County Edition of the Los Angeles Times, the Orange County Register, the San Francisco Chronicle, KCAL-TV, and KRON-TV. PPIC is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to objective, nonpartisan research on economic, social, and political issues that affect the lives of Californians. The Institute was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. ### - vii - California 2000 Election Presidential Primary After winning back-to-back primary victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, Vice President Al Gore has moved ahead in the California primary contest. Only a few weeks away from the March 7th open primary, Gore (29%) leads Texas Governor George W. Bush (24%), Senator John McCain (17%), and former Senator Bill Bradley (10%) among voters most likely to go to the polls. The biggest change since last month’s survey? A nine-point increase in support for McCain (8% to 17%) on the heels of his big victory in New Hampshire. At the same time, support for Bush has declined by four points (28% to 24%). Even with the open primary, the votes the candidates receive from voters within their respective parties are crucial because they determine the allocation of California’s delegates to the parties’ national nominating conventions. Gore and Bush remain far ahead in their parties. Democratic voters give Gore a 37-point lead over Bradley (52% to 15%), compared to a 27-point margin a month ago (48% to 21%). Gore is favored over Bradley about equally among Democratic men (50% to 14%) and women (53% to 16%). Republicans now favor Bush over McCain by a 22-point margin (46% to 24%), compared to a 45-point lead a month ago (56% to 11%). Bush has a bigger lead over McCain among Republican women (48% to 21%) than among Republican men (45% to 26%). Although crossover and independent voters will not play a role in determining the delegate commitments, their votes will be counted in determining the overall winner of the March 7th open primary. Democrats (19%) are more likely to support Republican candidates than Republicans (9%) are to support Democratic candidates. Independents currently favor Gore (23%) over McCain (18%), Bush (17%), and Bradley (12%). Gore gets his strongest support in Los Angeles County (38%), while Bush is ahead of all other candidates in the Central Valley (31%). Bradley’s level of support is higher in the San Francisco Bay area (17%) than elsewhere. One in six voters supports McCain across the state's major regions. Latinos strongly favor Gore (43%). Non-Hispanic whites favor Bush (30%) over Gore (22%), McCain (20%), and Bradley (11%). "If the Presidential Primary were held today, who would you vote for?" Al Gore George W. Bush John McCain Bill Bradley Alan Keyes Someone else Don't know Dec 98 31% 21 – – – 29 19 Sep 99 27% 27 4 7 – 21 14 Likely Voters Dec 99 24% 28 9 15 – 10 14 Jan 00 27% 28 8 13 – 10 14 Note: “someone else” includes candidates who have since left the race. Feb 00 29% 24 17 10 2 5 13 -1- California 2000 Election "If the Presidential Primary were held today, who would you vote for?" Likely Voters (February 2000) Party Region Al Gore George W. Bush John McCain Bill Bradley Alan Keyes Someone else Don't know Dem 52% 7 11 15 1 2 12 Rep 5% 46 24 4 3 5 13 Other 23% 17 18 12 2 11 17 Central Valley 25% 31 15 6 1 6 16 SF Bay Area 24% 20 17 17 1 6 15 Note: “someone else” includes candidates who have since left the race. Los Angeles 38% 22 16 8 1 5 10 Other Southern California 26% 26 16 11 3 5 13 Latino 43% 26 9 9 1 4 8 Leading Presidential Candidates When voters are asked who they would support if the November presidential election were between Gore and Bush—today’s leading candidates—it's pretty much a toss-up: 46 percent favor Gore and 45 percent favor Bush. These percentages have not shown much variation over time. In head-to-head match-ups, both candidates show strong support within their respective parties. Eight in 10 Democrats favor Gore, while eight in 10 Republicans support Bush. Independent voters are almost equally divided between Gore and Bush, with 15 percent still undecided. Bush’s support is more solid among men (86%) than among women (77%) in the GOP, while Gore is equally supported by Democratic men (79%) and women (78%). Gore leads Bush in the Democratic strongholds of Los Angeles County and the San Francisco Bay area. Bush has a big edge over Gore in the Central Valley and is slightly favored in the Southern California region outside of Los Angeles. Gore leads Bush among Latinos (60% to 35%), while non-Hispanic whites favor Bush over Gore (51% to 40%). "If these were the candidates in the Presidential Election in November 2000, who would you vote for?" George W. Bush Al Gore Don't know Dec 98 47% 45 8 Likely Voters Sep 99 Dec 99 49% 48% 44 44 78 Jan 00 46% 46 8 Feb 00 45% 46 9 -2- California 2000 Election George W. Bush Al Gore Don't know "If these were the candidates in the Presidential Election in November 2000, who would you vote for?" Likely Voters (February 2000) Party Region Dem 14% 78 8 Rep 82% 10 8 Other 41% 44 15 Central Valley 54% 38 8 SF Bay Area 40% 47 13 Los Angeles 40% 52 8 Other Southern California 48% 44 8 Latino 35% 60 5 Campaign Issues Candidates have their leading issues, but what do California voters most want to hear the presidential candidates talk about? The answer is schools (19%), followed by tax cuts (13%), health care (10%), Social Security and Medicare (8%), and federal spending (7%). Our surveys have consistently shown that education is the number one policy concern for Californians today. Many voters are also placing an emphasis on fiscal issues in the presidential election. Democrats are especially interested in hearing the candidates talk about education and health care, while Republicans and independents are more interested in tax and spending issues. A sizable number of residents in all of the major regions name education and taxes as their top concerns. Latinos stand out as particularly interested in hearing about schools and are less concerned about Social Security and Medicare. Gore is the top choice among voters who name schools, health care, and Social Security and Medicare. Bush leads among those who say taxes, while McCain is ahead among those who name the budget and spending. "Which one issue would you like to hear the candidates for President talk about between now and the March 7th California Primary?" (open-ended responses) Likely Voters (February 2000) Schools, education Taxes, cutting taxes Health care, HMO reform Social Security, Medicare Federal budget, spending Abortion Foreign policy, national security, defense Jobs, the economy, unemployment Environment, pollution Morals, family values Campaign finance reform Crime, gangs Guns, gun control Immigration, illegal immigration Other* Don't know 19% 13 10 8 7 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 7 10 *includes responses of 1% or less for issues such as housing, traffic, growth, and welfare -3- California 2000 Election "Which one issue would you like to hear the candidates for President talk about between now and the March 7th California Primary?" Likely Voters (February 2000) Party Region Schools, education Taxes, cutting taxes Health care, HMO reform Social Security, Medicare Federal budget, spending Abortion Foreign policy, defense Jobs, the economy, unemployment Environment, pollution Morals, family values Campaign finance reform Crime, gangs Guns, gun control Immigration, illegal immigration Other* Don't know Dem 24% 9 14 9 4 4 2 5 3 1 1 2 1 2 9 10 Rep 15% 18 8 7 8 5 5 3 1 4 1 3 2 3 7 10 Other 16% 13 6 6 10 2 6 4 6 3 3 1 1 2 10 11 Central Valley 16% 17 11 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 2 1 1 2 5 10 *includes responses of 1% or less for issues such as housing, traffic, growth, and welfare SF Bay Area 19% 12 10 8 5 2 4 6 2 3 3 3 1 1 9 12 Los Angeles 23% 11 9 6 6 5 6 4 3 3 1 2 1 3 6 11 Other Southern California 17% 13 12 8 6 3 4 3 2 3 1 2 3 3 12 8 Latino 29% 9 10 2 3 4 3 4 2 2 2 6 1 2 11 10 The Clinton Factor Is there a "Clinton factor" that will influence the outcome of the 2000 Presidential election? The evidence is mixed. Voters do distinguish between the President and his policies. Sixty-two percent say they like his policies and 36 percent say they dislike them. However, only 41 percent say they like the President, while 57 percent say they dislike him. About one-third of the voters like Clinton and his policies, and another one in three dislike both Clinton and his policies, but a sizable group (26%) say they like Clinton’s policies but don’t like him. While 57 percent of Democrats like Clinton and his policies, 30 percent say they like the policies but don’t like the man. Among Republicans, 59 percent dislike Clinton and his policies, but 19 percent like his policies although they dislike him. Independent voters are the most evenly divided in their views of Clinton: 34 percent like him and his policies; 30 percent dislike both; and 30 percent like the policies but not the man. In all regions, about one in four voters dislike Clinton but like his policies. Although he gets his highest marks from Latinos, 24 percent say they like his policies but don’t like him. Non-Hispanic whites are most likely to say they dislike Clinton and dislike his policies (37%), though many say they dislike Clinton but like his policies (27%). Among those who like Clinton and his policies, Gore is heavily favored (55%) over the other candidates in the presidential primary. For those who dislike both Clinton and his policies, Bush is -4- California 2000 Election the clear choice (46%) over others. Among the voters who dislike Clinton but like his policies, Gore leads (30%), but half of the voters divide their support among Bradley (17%), Bush (17%), and McCain (16%). "Which of these statements is closest to your view of President Bill Clinton?" Likely Voters (February 2000) I like Clinton and I like his policies I like Clinton but I dislike his policies I dislike Clinton but I like his policies I dislike Clinton and I dislike his policies Don't know 36% 5 26 31 2 I like Clinton and I like his policies I like Clinton but I dislike his policies I dislike Clinton but I like his policies I dislike Clinton and I dislike his policies Don't know Likely Voters (February 2000) Party Dem 57% Rep 14% Other 34% Central Valley 33% Region SF Bay Area Los Angeles Other Southern California Latino 34% 43% 33% 58% 455 2 7 5 54 30 19 30 23 27 28 27 24 7 59 30 41 28 21 34 14 231 1 4 3 10 U.S. Senate Race Little has changed in recent months regarding support for candidates in the open primary for the U.S. Senate. About half of the likely voters would vote for the incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein. Republican Congressman Tom Campbell now has 14 percent of the total vote, while GOP candidates Haynes and Horn have less support. One in four voters remains undecided. Among Democrats, 80 percent say they would vote for Feinstein in the March Primary, while fewer than 10 percent would cross over and vote for one of the Republicans. Republicans now favor Campbell (25%) over Feinstein (17%), Horn (10%), and Haynes (5%), but 40 percent are still undecided. Almost half of the independents say they will vote for Feinstein, while fewer than 10 percent would vote for any one of the Republican candidates, and 29 percent are undecided. Feinstein's support is strongest in the San Francisco Bay area and Los Angeles County. Campbell has the biggest lead over the other two Republicans in the San Francisco Bay area and the Central Valley, while the race for the GOP nomination is close in Southern California. Feinstein is the heavy favorite among Latinos (60%) but also has a strong showing among non-Hispanic whites (44%). -5- California 2000 Election A major reason that Feinstein is doing so well in the open primary is that she enjoys good job ratings. Six in 10 approve of her performance as a U.S. Senator; of those voters, 75 percent support her in the Senate race. Meanwhile, Campbell is not helped by the fact that nearly half disapprove of the job that Republican leaders are doing in Congress; of those voters, only 8 percent favor him. "If the March 2000 primary election for the U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for?" Dianne Feinstein Tom Campbell Ray Haynes Bill Horn Other Don't know Likely Voters Dec 99 Jan 00 50% 53% 12 12 34 23 32 30 26 Feb 00 49% 14 4 5 2 26 Dianne Feinstein Tom Campbell Ray Haynes Bill Horn Other Don’t know Likely Voters (February 2000) Party Dem 80% 5 1 1 1 12 Rep 17% 25 5 10 3 40 Other 44% 9 7 4 7 29 Central Valley 38% 16 5 1 2 38 Region SF Bay Area 57% 19 6 2 3 13 Los Angeles 52% 12 2 7 1 26 Other Southern California 44% 11 3 10 4 28 Latino 60% 10 3 6 5 16 Likely Voters (February 2000) "Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Dianne Feinstein is doing as a U.S. Senator?" Approve Disapprove Don't know "Do you approve or disapprove of the job that the Republican leaders in Congress are doing?" Approve Disapprove Don't know 59% 29 12 41% 48 11 -6- California 2000 Election Proposition 22: "Limit on Marriages" Initiative A solid majority of voters (57%) continue to support Proposition 22, the "Limit on Marriages" initiative, which would require that only a marriage between a man and a woman be recognized in the state, while 38 percent would vote “no" and only 5 percent are undecided. These results indicate no recent changes in voter sentiment. Yet, there are deep political divisions underneath the majority support for this controversial initiative. Democrats are evenly split on Proposition 22, Republicans are overwhelmingly supportive, and independent voters are more likely to say they will vote no than vote yes. San Francisco Bay area residents are equally divided on Proposition 22, but residents of the Central Valley (67%) and Southern California suburban region outside of Los Angeles (63%) strongly support it. Both Latinos (61%) and non-Hispanic whites (55%) are showing support for Proposition 22. The proponents of Proposition 22 have argued that their initiative is needed to close a “legal loophole” that would require California to recognize same-sex marriages performed in other states. Even though most voters would support Proposition 22, they are divided about the issue of legally recognizing same-sex marriages that are performed in other states. Forty-five percent think that the gay and lesbian marriages outside of the state should be legally recognized in California, while 49 percent think they should not. Democrats (57%) and independents (48%) are much more likely than Republicans (31%) to want out-of-state gay and lesbian marriages to be legally recognized in California. At the same time, even 23 percent of those who would recognize out-of-state gay marriages would vote yes on Proposition 22. While California voters may have mixed feelings about same-sex marriages, our surveys have also shown they have strong and consistent support for the civil rights of gays and lesbians, including their right to serve openly in the military: 69 percent of California voters say that gays and lesbians should serve openly in the military, while 26 percent are opposed. Democrats (77%), independents (75%), and Republicans (58%) all agree that gays and lesbians should serve openly in the military. Strong majorities in all regions and across racial and ethnic groups also support this position. A higher percentage of Californians than Americans generally hold this view: According to a Fox News survey earlier in 2000, 57 percent of Americans said that gays and lesbians should serve openly in the military. Nevertheless, only 46 percent of Californians in our survey who say gays and lesbians should serve openly in the military would vote no on Proposition 22. "Proposition 22—the ‘limit on marriages’ initiative on the March 2000 ballot—adds a provision to the family code providing that only a marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 22?" Yes No Don't know Dec 98* 64% 33 3 Sep 99* 63% 34 3 Likely Voters Dec 99 58% 38 4 Jan 00 57% 38 5 Feb 00 57% 38 5 * Referred to as "Definition of Marriage" initiative in earlier surveys. -7- California 2000 Election Yes No Don't know Likely Voters (February 2000) Party Dem 47% 48 5 Rep 74% 22 4 Other 43% 50 7 Central Valley 67% 29 4 Region SF Bay Area 48% 48 4 Los Angeles 54% 40 6 Other Southern California 63% 33 4 Latino 61% 37 2 Likely Voters (January 2000) "If gay and lesbian couples live in California and marry in other states, do you think their marriages should or should not be legally recognized in California?” Should 45% Should not 49 Don't know 6 "Do you think that gays and lesbians should or should not be allowed to serve openly in the military?" Should 69% Should not 26 Don't know 5 Proposition 26: Simple Majority Vote The fate of Proposition 26 remains as uncertain today as it was a month ago, even as the proponents have made their arguments. Many voters are still not convinced of the need to change the requirement for passing local school bonds from a two-thirds to a simple-majority vote. When voters are read the title and summary of Proposition 26, 44 percent say they would vote yes and 47 percent say they would vote no. These results are almost identical to those of a month ago. While a majority of Democrats (52%) would support the measure, most Republicans (57%) and a near majority of independent voters (49%) are opposed. At this time, the measure does not enjoy majority support in any of the state’s major regions. A majority of Latinos (54%) are in favor of the simple-majority vote for local school bonds, while 50 percent of non-Hispanic whites are opposed. Even though support for Proposition 26 now falls short of a majority, 64 percent of voters say they would vote for local school construction bonds if they appeared on their ballots this March. However, this does not reach the two-thirds majority required to pass local school bonds. Moreover, 28 percent who said they would vote for a local school bond in their district also said they would vote no on Proposition 26. Voters show even less favor for a measure being discussed for the November ballot that would ease the vote requirement for raising local sales taxes for transportation. Almost six in 10 voters are opposed to changing the requirement for special transportation taxes from two-thirds to a simple majority vote, while fewer than four in 10 are in favor. Opponents outnumber supporters across all regions, political groups, and racial and ethnic groups. -8- California 2000 Election "Proposition 26—the 'school facilities, local majority vote, bonds, taxes' initiative on the March 2000 ballot—would authorize local school districts to issue bonds for construction, rehabilitation, or replacement of school facilities if approved by a simple majority of local voters. It authorizes property taxes higher than the existing one percent limit by majority vote, rather than by the two-thirds vote currently required, to pay the bonds. The fiscal costs to local school districts are potentially in the hundreds of millions of dollars statewide each year within a decade, depending on voter actions on future local school bonds. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 26?" Likely Voters Sep 99* Dec 99* Jan 00 Yes 76% 64% 44% No 20 31 45 Don't know 4 5 11 * Wording did not reflect the most recent ballot title and summary. Feb 00 44% 47 9 Yes No Don't know Likely Voters (February 2000) Party Dem 52% 36 12 Rep 36% 57 7 Other 41% 49 10 Central Valley 41% 47 12 Region SF Bay Area 44% 46 10 Los Angeles 47% 43 10 Other Southern California 43% 49 8 Latino 54% 37 9 Likely Voters (February 2000) "If your local school district had a bond measure on the March ballot to pay for school construction projects, would you vote yes or no?” Yes 64% No 29 Don't know 7 "Do you favor or oppose allowing local sales tax increases to pay for local transportation projects to pass with a simple majority instead of a two-thirds vote?" Favor 36% Oppose 58 Don't know 6 -9- California 2000 Election News Stories About the Presidential Election Californians are finally paying attention to the presidential campaign. With the news about the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries in the last month, the number of Californians who are “very closely” or “fairly closely” following the elections jumped 12 points—from 63 percent to 75 percent. Most of the increase was among those who say they are “very closely” following the races. Today, only about one in four voters likely to go to the polls is not closely following the candidates. Democrats (74%), Republicans (74%), and independents (77%) are about equally likely to say they are at least fairly closely following the presidential primaries. Voters in the San Francisco Bay are more tuned in to the presidential race than those living elsewhere in the state. Latino voters (76%) are just as likely as non-Hispanic white voters (74%) at this time to indicate they are very or fairly closely following the 2000 election. Among the likely voters who are paying very close attention to the election news, Gore (32%) has the highest support, and Bush and McCain are tied (21%), followed by Bradley (11%). "How closely have you been following the news stories about candidates for the 2000 presidential election?" Very closely Fairly closely Not too closely Not at all closely Don't know Dec 99 16% 52 26 6 0 Likely Voters Jan 00 13% 50 30 6 1 Feb 00 21% 54 21 4 0 Very closely Fairly closely Not too closely Not at all closely Don't know Likely Voters (January 2000) Party Dem 20% 54 22 4 0 Rep 21% 53 22 4 0 Other 23% 54 17 6 0 Central Valley 22% 51 21 6 0 Region SF Bay Area 20% 61 15 4 0 Los Angeles 22% 52 21 5 0 Other Southern California 18% 52 26 4 0 Latino 18% 58 21 3 0 - 10 - California Policy Issues School Spending Despite their intense interest in candidates' views on education and a desire to raise California's national rank in spending per pupil, Californians aren't as enthused about raising taxes to achieve that goal. Half of California residents know that California is ranked below average in per-pupil spending, compared to other states. This knowledge has increased by four points in the past two years (47% to 51%). When residents are informed that California ranks fortieth in the nation in per pupil spending, 74 percent favor a proposed initiative that would require the state to reach the national average in five years. Support is strong across political groups, regions of the state, racial and ethnic groups, and parents with and without children in public schools. However, support drops to 56 percent and by nearly 20 points in all groups when people are told that to bring the state up to the national average in per pupil spending would require increasing taxes by about $4 billion a year. "Where do you think California ranks in spending per pupil compared to other states?" Near the top, Above average Average Near the bottom, Below average Don’t know All Adults April 98 Feb 00 14% 28 47 11 16% 24 51 9 "The National Education Association ranks California fortieth in the nation in per pupil spending. A proposed initiative for the November ballot would require California to meet the national average in per pupil spending within five years. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this initiative?" February 2000 Yes No Don’t know All Adults 74% 19 7 Democrat 80% 13 7 Party Registration Republican 65% 28 7 Other Voters 72% 20 8 Not Registered to Vote 77% 14 9 Latino 79% 14 7 - 11 - California Policy Issues "The Legislative Analyst and State Director of Finance estimate that the initiative would result in tax increases of about $4 billion annually by 2005-2006. Knowing this, would you vote yes or no on an initiative to require California to meet the national average in per pupil spending within five years?" February 2000 Yes No Don’t know All Adults 56% 37 7 Democrat 62% 30 8 Party Registration Republican 48% 46 6 Other Voters 53% 39 8 Not Registered to Vote 57% 36 7 Latino 59% 35 6 Important Ingredients for Student Success Putting good teachers in the classroom is ranked by the highest percentage of Californians (35%) as the most important ingredient for students to succeed in California's K-12 schools. They rank class size (23%) and student family background (22%) as next most important for student success. Fewer think that success can be achieved with more testing and standards (10%) and more spending per pupil (5%). Belief that teachers' experience and education is the most important ingredient is even higher (40%) among people with children in public schools than it is among all Californians, while fewer of those with children in public schools believe that student family background is the biggest factor (19%). Although all groups rank teacher qualities as the most important factor, student family background ranks higher among non-Hispanic whites (25%) than Latinos (16%) or Latinos, Asians, and blacks combined (19%). The perception that teacher’s experience and education is the most important ingredient for student success varies little across regions. "Which of these factors do you think is the most important ingredient for students to succeed in California’s K-12 public schools? February 2000 Teacher’s experience and education Class size Per pupil spending Student family background Student testing and standards Other Don’t know All Adults 35% 23 5 22 10 2 3 Central Valley 35% 23 5 23 9 1 4 Region SF Bay Area Los Angeles 33% 37% 21 24 64 27 20 89 32 24 Other Southern California 35% 24 5 21 11 1 3 Latino 39% 21 5 16 16 0 3 - 12 - California Policy Issues Perceptions of Local School Resources Seventy-eight percent of Californians believe that schools in lower-income areas of the state do not have the same resources—including good teachers—as schools in wealthier areas, a perception equally held by parents with children in public schools (78%). At least 75 percent of people in every region see the state's system as offering unequal resources for wealthy areas and poorer areas. Seventy-eight percent of non-Hispanic whites, 76 percent of Latinos and 80 percent of Asians, Latinos, and blacks combined hold this view. Moreover, 70 percent of resident think that school districts with the lowest student test scores should be given more resources than other school districts. This policy preference is more prevalent in the San Francisco Bay area and Southern California than in the Central Valley, but it is strongly held across all regions. Sixty-four percent of non-Hispanic whites, 80 percent of Latinos and 79 percent of Asians, Latinos, and blacks combined want districts with the lowest test scores to get more resources than other districts. Among people with children in the public schools, 75 percent think that low-performing districts should be given more resources than other school districts. February 2000 "Do you think that schools in lower-income areas of the state have the same amount of resources—including good teachers—as schools in wealthier areas?" Yes No Don’t know "Do you think that school districts with the lowest student test scores in the state should or should not be given more resources than other school districts?" Should Should not Don’t know All Central Adults Valley Region SF Bay Area Los Angeles Other Southern California Latino 17% 78 5 20% 75 5 9% 86 5 19% 75 6 19% 77 4 20% 76 4 70% 25 5 63% 30 7 72% 22 6 74% 22 4 70% 27 3 80% 17 3 - 13 - California Policy Issues Ethnic and Race Relations Californians are increasingly aware that the racial and ethnic makeup of their regions is changing. Although most see race and ethnic relations as proceeding well, many perceive that "racial profiling" is taking place when some motorists are stopped by police. Seventy-one percent think that the racial and ethnic makeup of their region has been changing, with 38 percent believing that "a lot" of change has occurred in recent years. This perception of racial and ethnic change has increased by five points over two years. Seventy-four percent of non-Hispanic whites see the racial and ethnic makeup of their region changing, compared to 64 percent of Latinos and 65 percent of Latinos, Asians, and blacks combined. There is some variation across regions: 74 percent in the Southern California suburban region, 72 percent in the San Francisco Bay area, 70 percent in the Central Valley, and 68 percent in Los Angeles perceive this change. Today, as in the October 1998 survey, about eight in 10 Californians say that race and ethnic relations in their region are going "very well" or "somewhat well," and this varies little across regions or racial and ethnic groups. Nevertheless, many people believe that the police in their region do not treat ethnic and racial groups equally. Fifty percent think that the practice of "racial profiling"—in which police are more likely to stop motorists of certain racial and ethnic groups—is widespread in their region. In a national survey by Gallup in 1999, 59 percent of Americans thought that racial profiling was widespread. In California, the belief that racial profiling is widespread is most prevalent in Los Angeles (60%), while the belief that racial profiling is not widespread is most common in the Central Valley (47%). Forty-three percent of non-Hispanic whites see racial profiling as widespread, compared to 61 percent of Latinos and 62 percent of Latinos, Asians, and blacks combined. "In the past few years, do you think the racial and ethnic makeup of your region has been changing a lot, somewhat, very little, or not at all?" A lot Somewhat Very little Not at all Don’t know All Adults Oct 98 36% 30 20 12 2 Feb 00 38% 33 19 7 3 "It has been reported that some police officers stop motorists of certain racial and ethnic groups because the officers believe that these groups are more likely than others to commit certain crimes. Do you believe that this practice, known as racial profiling, is widespread or not widespread in your region?" February 2000 Widespread Not widespread Don’t know All Central Adults Valley 50% 44% 42 47 89 Region SF Bay Area Los Angeles 46% 60% 42 32 12 8 Other Southern California 50% 43 7 Latino 61% 33 6 - 14 - California Policy Issues Immigration Californians are becoming increasingly aware of the growth of the immigrant population. At the same time, they feel more positive about the contributions of immigrants to the state's economy. Eighty-five percent of residents think the immigrant population in California has been increasing, while six in 10 say it has increased a lot. Only 11 percent think the immigrant population has stayed the same, and almost no one perceives this group as shrinking in size. The number of Californians who think the immigrant population in California has increased a lot in recent years has increased by 13 points since 1998.. Fifty-seven percent of Latinos and an equal percentage of non-Hispanic whites say the immigrant population is increasing a lot. This perception of a substantial growth varies somewhat across regions: 64 percent in the Southern California suburban region, 61 percent in Los Angeles, 58 percent in the San Francisco Bay area, and 56 percent in the Central Valley. Today, as in the December 1998 survey, about four in 10 Californians rate illegal immigration as a "big problem" in California. Nevertheless, Californians are feeling more positive about immigrants. Two years ago, the state's residents were split about equally on the question of whether immigrants were a benefit (46%) or a burden (42%) on society. Now, they are much more likely to say that immigrants are a benefit to the economy (54%) rather than a burden to government (34%). Residents of the San Francisco Bay area (58%) and Los Angeles (58%) are more likely than those in the rest of Southern California (50%) and the Central Valley (50%) to say that immigrants are a benefit. Today, fewer than half of non-Hispanic whites think that immigrants have mostly positive effects on the state (45%), while Latinos are overwhelmingly positive about the effects of immigration (78%). Still, two years ago, fewer non-Hispanic whites saw immigration as a positive (37%) and fewer Latinos were positive (66%) about immigrants' contributions. "In the past few years, do you think the overall immigrant population in California has been increasing, decreasing, or staying about the same?" All Adults Increasing a lot Increasing somewhat Decreasing Staying about the same Don’t know April 98 47% 26 2 21 4 Feb 00 60% 25 2 11 2 "Which of these two views is closest to yours?" Immigrants today are a benefit to California because of their hard work and job skills Immigrants today are a burden to California because they use public services Don’t know - 15 - April 98 46% 42 12 All Adults Feb 00 54% 34 12 California Policy Issues Job Performance Ratings for State Officials A slim majority of Californians continue to give Governor Gray Davis positive marks for his overall job performance in office: 51 percent rate his performance as excellent or good, 32 percent say he is doing a fair job, and 8 percent rate his job performance as poor. Nine percent are undecided. The positive ratings were similar in the September (51%), December (51%), and January (50%) surveys. The Governor gets excellent or good ratings from most Democrats (63%) and around four in 10 Republicans (43%) and independent voters (40%). Approximately half of the residents in all regions of the state give him positive ratings: 52 percent in the San Francisco Bay area, 52 percent in Los Angeles County, 51 percent in the rest of the Southern California region, and 48 percent in the Central Valley. Latinos (60%) are more likely than non-Hispanic whites (49%) to say they think Davis is doing an excellent or good job in office. Fewer Californians give positive marks to the State Legislature: 37 percent say it is doing an excellent or good job, 41 percent rate it as doing a fair job, and 10 percent say it is doing a poor job. Twelve percent have no opinion. The positive ratings are similar to those in the September (32%), December (37%), and January (34%) surveys. Democrats (44%) are more likely than independent voters or Republicans (29% each) to give high marks to the Legislature. However, there is little variation in excellent or good ratings across regions: 36% in Los Angeles County, 37% in the rest of the Southern California region, 37% in the San Francisco Bay area, and 35 percent in the Central Valley. Latinos (51%) are more likely than nonHispanic whites (31%) to give the State Legislature positive ratings for its job performance. "How would you rate the job performance of …" Governor Gray Davis Excellent Good Fair Poor Don't know California Legislature Excellent Good Fair Poor Don't know Sep 99 10% 41 34 9 6 2% 30 48 13 7 All Adults Dec 99 Jan 00 9% 42 31 12 6 9% 41 34 9 7 3% 34 41 13 9 3% 31 44 11 11 Feb 00 10% 41 32 8 9 3% 34 41 10 12 - 16 - Political Trends Political Attentiveness At the moment, Californians are more tuned into what is going on in government and public affairs than the rest of Americans and more tuned in than they were last fall. Eighty-seven percent say they follow what’s going on in the public policy arena most or some of the time. While Californians are no more likely than Americans in a 1999 survey by the Pew Research Center to say that they follow government and public affairs “most of the time” (38% to 39%), state residents are more likely to follow public affairs at least “some of the time” (49% to 32%). Californians' interest has also grown since last fall when the PPIC Statewide surveys found that 70 percent in September and 69 percent in December said they were at least sometimes following political news, compared to 87 percent today. Interest differs significantly across political groups. Californians who are not registered to vote are much less likely than those who are registered to follow government and public affairs “most of the time” (20% to 44%). Republicans (48%) are more likely than Democrats and other voters (42% each) to be highly attentive to politics. Latinos are less likely than non-Hispanic whites to very closely follow public affairs (27% to 43%). Regional differences are also evident: More people in the San Francisco Bay Area (42%) and Los Angeles (40%) than in the rest of Southern California (35%) or the Central Valley (36%) are following government and public affairs most of the time. "Would you say you follow what's going on in government and public affairs …" Most of the time Some of the time Hardly ever Never All Adults U.S.* California 39% 38% 32 49 20 10 93 * Source: National survey conducted by the Pew Research Center, 1999 Most of the time Some of the time Hardly ever Never All Adults 38% 49 10 3 Party Registration Democrats 42% 48 8 2 Republicans 48% 45 6 1 Other Voters 42% 45 11 2 Not Registered to Vote 20% 57 15 8 Latino 27% 53 14 6 - 17 - Political Trends Political Alienation Californians' political alienation is evident from the fact that 55 percent believe that most elected officials don't care about what people like themselves think. However, they seem less alienated than Americans nationally: 43 percent of Californians say that elected officials do care what they think, while only 35 percent voiced that belief in a 1999 national survey by the Pew Research Center. Democrats (49%) are more likely than Republicans (43%), and other voters (36%) to believe that most elected officials care what they think. Latinos and non-Hispanic whites are about equally likely to believe that elected officials care, and there are virtually no differences in perception across regions: 44% in Los Angeles, 42 percent in the rest of Southern California, 44 percent in the San Francisco Bay area, and 42 percent in the Central Valley say that elected officials care about what people like them think. "Please tell me if the first statement or the second statement comes closer to your views ..." Most elected officials care about what people like me think Most elected officials do not care about what people like me think Don't know All Adults U.S.* California 35% 43% 60 55 52 * Source: National survey conducted by the Pew Research Center, 1999 Party Registration Most elected officials care about what people like me think Most elected officials do not care about what people like me think Don't know All Adults 43% 55 2 Democrats 49% 49 2 Republicans 43% 56 1 Other Voters 36% 62 2 Not Registered to Vote Latino 40% 45% 56 51 44 - 18 - Political Trends Government Regulation of Business Californians are about as likely to say that “government regulation of business often does more harm than good” (49%) as to agree that “government regulation is necessary to protect the public interest” (46%). They are also slightly more negative about regulation than Americans generally. According to a national survey by the Pew Research Center in 1999, 44 percent of Americans believe that government regulation of business does more harm than good. Attitudes toward regulations differ by party: Democrats (56%) and independents (46%) are much more likely than Republicans (31%) to think that government regulation of business is needed to protect the public interest. Latinos (57%) are more likely than non-Hispanic whites (41%) to support the regulation of business. Regionally, residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (51%) and Los Angeles (48%) are more likely than those living in the rest of Southern California (42%) and the Central Valley (44%) to agree that government regulation of business is necessary. "Please tell me if the first statement or the second statement comes closer to your views ..." Government regulation of business is necessary to protect the public interest Government regulation of business often does more harm than good Don't know All Adults U.S.* California 48% 46% 44 49 85 * Source: National survey conducted by the Pew Research Center, 1999 Government regulation of business is necessary to protect the public interest Government regulation of business often does more harm than good Don't know Party Registration All Adults Democrats Republicans Other Voters 46% 56% 31% 46% Not Registered to Vote Latino 50% 57% 49 39 55 65 50 42 36 4 4 87 - 19 - Political Trends Government Benefits for the Poor Californians seem to have more sympathy than Americans generally for the poor. Fifty-three percent of Californians believe that poor people have hard lives because government benefits don’t go far enough, while 39 percent think they have easy lives because of government benefits. In contrast, a national survey by the Pew Research Center in 1999 found that 42 percent of Americans think that poor people have hard lives, while 45 percent believe they have easy lives. However, there is a partisan split among Californians: 53 percent of Republicans think that the poor have it easy because of government benefits, compared to 28 percent of Democrats and 40 percent of other voters. There are also ethnic and regional differences: Latinos are more likely than non-Hispanic whites to think that the poor have hard lives because government benefits do not go far enough (58% to 48%). People living in the San Francisco Bay area (57%) and Los Angeles (57%) are more likely than those in the rest of Southern California (51%) and the Central Valley (46%) to share that view. "Please tell me if the first statement or the second statement comes closer to your views ..." Poor people today have it easy because they can get government benefits without doing anything in return Poor people have hard lives because government benefits don’t go far enough to help them live decently Don't know All Adults U.S.* California 45% 39% 42 53 13 8 * Source: National survey conducted by the Pew Research Center, 1999 Poor people today have it easy because they can get government benefits without doing anything in return Poor people have hard lives because government benefits don’t go far enough to help them live decently Don't know All Adults 39% 53 8 Democrats 28% 64 8 Party Registration Republicans Other Voters 53% 40% 36 53 11 7 Not Registered to Vote Latino 39% 35% 55 58 67 - 20 - Political Trends Government Involvement in HMOs and Managed Health Care Californians' concerns about managed care is evident from the fact that almost two-thirds believe that the federal government should create national standards to protect the rights of patients in HMOs and managed health care plans. The results are almost identical to a national survey by the Pew Research Center in 1999. However, Californians' support for patients' rights does vary across political groups: 75 percent of Democrats, 45 percent of Republicans, and 61 percent of other voters think that the federal government should create standards to protect patients' rights. Latinos (75%) are more supportive than non-Hispanic whites (57%) of federal protection for patients' rights. Los Angeles residents (71%) are more likely than those living in the rest of Southern California (61%), the San Francisco Bay area (60%), and the Central Valley (59%) to favor national standards for patients rights. "Should the federal government create national standards to protect the rights of patients in HMOs and managed health care plans, or would this get the federal government too involved in health care?" All Adults U.S.* California Federal government should create standards Federal government would be too involved 64% 30 63% 33 Don't know 64 * Source: National survey conducted by the Pew Research Center, 1999 Federal government should create standards Federal government would be too involved Don't know All Adults 63% 33 4 Democrats 75% 22 3 Party Registration Republicans Other Voters 45% 61% 51 36 43 Not Registered to Vote Latino 70% 75% 26 22 43 - 21 - Political Trends Government Health Care for the Uninsured When asked their preference for providing guaranteed health care coverage for all Americans, 52 percent of Californians feel that it would be better to build on the existing health care system, while 41 percent think that it would be better to switch to a system in which all individuals would buy their own insurance with the help of tax credits or a subsidy. In a national survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation earlier this year, 43 percent of Americans said that they preferred building on the current health care system in seeking a way to extend health care coverage for the uninsured. Democrats (58% to 34%) and independent voters (52% to 43%) are more in favor of building on the current system than switching to a new system, while Republicans (46% each) are equally likely to want to build on the current health care system as they are to want to switch to a new health insurance system. Latinos (56%) are a little more likely than non-Hispanic whites (50%) to favor building on the current health care system. Those living in Los Angeles (55%) and the Central Valley (55%) express a slightly higher preference for building on the current system than those in the San Francisco Bay area (51%) and the Southern California suburban region (50%). "Which of the following two options do you think would be the better way to guarantee health insurance coverage for Americans …" Building on the current system in which most working people get health coverage through an employer, and the government covers the cost of insurance for the poor and unemployed Switching to a system in which all individuals would buy their own health insurance but would receive a tax credit or subsidy to help them with the cost of the plan Neither (volunteered) Don't know * Source: National survey conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation, 2000 All Adults U.S.* California 43% 52% 38 41 11 3 84 Build on current system Switch to new system Neither (volunteered) Don't know Party Registration All Adults 52% 41 3 4 Democrats 58% 34 3 5 Republicans 46% 46 3 5 Other Voters 52% 43 2 3 Not Registered to Vote 53% 42 1 4 Latino 56% 40 1 3 - 22 - Political Trends Western Europe and Asia Although the Golden State is often described as the “Gateway to Asia,” Californians are more likely to say that Western European nations (47%) are more important than Asian nations (39%) for U.S. interests. In the San Francisco Bay Area, more people think that Asia rather than Western Europe is most important to U.S. interests (44% to 40%). In Los Angeles, residents are almost equally likely to say Western Europe (45%) and Asia (42%). However, Western Europe is perceived as more important than Asia in the Central Valley (49% to 33%) and the Southern California suburbs (49% to 40%). Latinos (55%) are more likely than non-Hispanic whites (47%) to say that the nations of Western Europe are more important to U.S. interests. Democrats (48%) and Republicans (51%) both perceive Western Europe as most important. In a national survey by Potomac Associates in 1999, 45 percent of Americans said that Western European ties were most important to U.S. interests. Californians are more likely to think of Japan (49%) rather than China (36%) when they are asked to name the Asian country that is most important to California’s economy. Russia, South Korea, and other countries are infrequently thought of as the major player in the state’s economy. Democrats (53%) and Republicans (52%) are equally likely to name Japan. Latinos (49%) and non-Hispanic whites (50%) have similar perceptions of Japan’s significance to the state's economy. About half of the residents in every major region think of Japan as the most important Asian country for California’s economy. "The United States has strong political, economic, and national defense ties with nations in Western Europe and Asia. From the standpoint of promoting our own political, economic, and national defense interests, which do you think are more important to the U.S.—nations in Western Europe or nations in Asia?" All Adults Nations in Western Europe Nations in Asia Other answer, Don't know 47% 39 14 Central Valley 49% 33 18 Region San Francisco Bay Area 40% 44 16 Los Angeles 45% 42 13 Other Southern California Latino 49% 40 11 55% 32 13 "Thinking of all Asian countries, which one country in this region do you think is the most important to California's economy?" All Adults Japan China South Korea Russia Another country Don’t know 49% 36 3 2 2 8 Central Valley 48% 35 3 1 3 10 Region San Francisco Bay Area 49% 38 2 2 1 8 Los Angeles 50% 34 4 2 1 9 Other Southern California Latino 48% 38 3 3 1 7 49% 32 4 4 1 10 - 23 - Social and Economic Trends Mood of the State Californians remain highly positive about the state. Sixty-five percent say that things are going in the right direction in California. The mood is brighter in the San Francisco Bay area than in other regions and brighter among Latinos (71%) than non-Hispanic whites (63%). Californians remain optimistic about the prospects for the state’s economy this year. Nearly eight in ten say that they expect good financial times over the next 12 months. This financial optimism is slightly lower in the Central Valley than in other regions of the state and is identical for Latinos and non-Hispanic whites. "Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?" Right direction Wrong direction Don't know May 98 56% 34 10 Sep 98 57% 34 9 Oct 98 62% 30 8 All Adults Dec 98 Sep 99 Dec 99 63% 61% 62% 28 34 31 9 57 Jan 00 66% 26 8 Feb 00 65% 27 8 February 2000 Right direction Wrong direction Don't know All Adults 65% 27 8 Central Valley 61% 30 9 Region SF Bay Area 70% 23 7 Los Angeles 66% 26 8 Other Southern California 62% 29 9 Latino 71% 22 7 "Do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?" Good times Bad times Don't know All Adults Sep 99 Dec 99 72% 76% 23 19 55 Feb 00 78% 15 7 February 2000 Good times Bad times Don't know All Adults 78% 15 7 Central Valley 74% 18 8 Region SF Bay Area 80% 13 7 - 25 - Los Angeles 77% 16 7 Other Southern California 79% 13 8 Latino 77% 19 4 Social and Economic Trends Computers and the Internet Although almost three-fourths of Californians today have used a computer and about two-thirds have used the Internet at some time, there are considerable differences in use across age and ethnic groups and income and education levels. Seventy-two percent of Californians say they have used a computer, with 57 percent saying they "often" use a computer at home, school, or work. Sixty percent have used the Internet at some time, with 47 percent using it "often." Frequent computer use is highly evident among those 18 to 54 years old (65%), while it is much less common among those 55 and older (36%). Latinos are much less likely than non-Hispanic whites to use computers on a frequent basis (35% to 63%). As for income, 26 percent of those with incomes under $20,000 often use computers, compared to 84 percent of those with incomes of $80,000 or more. Similarly, 30 percent of those with a high school education or less are frequent computer users, compared to 75 percent of college graduates. As with overall computer use, frequent Internet use is much higher among California adults who are 18 to 54 (54%), while it is more rare among those who are 55 and older (27%). Latinos lag far behind non-Hispanic whites in frequent use of the Internet (26% to 52%). Frequent Internet use also increases with higher household income and education: Twenty-one percent of those with household incomes under $20,000 often use the Internet, compared to 75 percent of those with incomes of $80,000 or more. Similarly, only 21 percent of those with a high school education or less are frequent Internet users, compared to 65 percent of those with a college education or higher. February 2000 "Do you ever use a computer at home, at work, or at school?" Yes, often Yes, sometimes No, don't use computers "Do you ever go on line to access the Internet or World-Wide Web?" Yes, often Yes, sometimes No, but do use computers No, don't use computers All Adults 57% 15 28 47% 13 12 28 18 to 34 64% 18 18 54% 16 12 18 Age 35 to 54 55 & Older Latino 66% 13 21 36% 13 51 35% 20 45 53% 15 11 21 27% 9 13 50 26% 13 17 44 - 26 - Social and Economic Trends Visiting Websites As California governments consider the “California eGovernment Plan” recently offered by the California Secretary of State, it is important to take stock of the percentage and demographic characteristics of people who are currently accessing various government and private websites. Californians today are more likely to use the Internet to visit retail websites than to visit government websites: 42 percent say they visit retail websites offering consumer products at least sometimes, compared to 33 percent who visit government websites and 32 percent who visit financial websites. Moreover, those who visit financial (14%) and retail (13%) websites are more likely to do so “often” in comparison to those who say they “often” visit government websites (8%). The California trends in visiting private-sector websites are similar to those found in a national survey by Harris in 1999. There are no comparable data from national studies on visits to government websites. Also significant for California government is the “digital divide” in visits to these kinds of websites. A lower percentage of Latinos than non-Hispanic whites are visiting government websites (18% to 37%), retail websites (25% to 46%), and financial websites (20% to 35%). An even larger divide is found across income groups; those earning less than $20,000 are much less likely than those earning more than $80,000 to visit government websites (10% to 57%), retail websites (21% to 67%), and financial websites (10% to 59%). Similarly, those with a high school education or less are far less likely than those with a college degree or higher to visit government websites (12% to 51%), retail websites (22% to 59%), and financial websites (13% to 47%). There are also age differences, with those 55 and older being much less likely than those who are under 54 to visit government websites (19% to 37%), retail websites (22% to 49%), and financial websites (17% to 37%). February 2000 "Do you ever go on line to visit government websites, such as federal, state, or local agencies?" Yes, often Yes, sometimes No Don't use Internet "Do you ever go on line to visit retail websites, such as stores or catalogs offering consumer products?" Yes, often Yes, sometimes No Don't use Internet "Do you ever go on line to visit financial web sites, such as banks, credit cards, and investment firms?" Yes, often Yes, sometimes No Don't use Internet - 27 - All Adults 8% 25 27 40 13% 29 18 40 14% 18 28 40 Social and Economic Trends "Do you ever go on line to visit government websites, such as federal, state, or local agencies?" February 2000 All Adults Education Income Latino Yes, often Yes, sometimes No Don't use Internet HS or Less 2% 10 19 69 Some College College or Higher 7% 14% 24 37 33 30 35 19 Under $20,000 3% 7 21 69 $20,000 to $40,000 to $39,999 $79,999 4% 11% 22 29 26 30 48 30 Above $80,000 14% 43 32 11 3% 15 20 62 "Do you ever go on line to visit retail websites, such as stores or catalogs offering consumer products?" February 2000 All Adults Education Income Latino Yes, often Yes, sometimes No Don't use Internet HS or Less 8% 14 9 69 Some College 13% 29 22 35 College or Higher 17% 42 22 19 Under $20,000 8% 13 10 69 $20,000 to $40,000 to $39,999 $79,999 10% 14% 21 37 21 19 48 30 Above $80,000 22% 45 22 11 11% 14 13 62 "Do you ever go on line to visit financial web sites, such as banks, credit cards, and investment firms?" February 2000 All Adults Education Income Latino Yes, often Yes, sometimes No Don't use Internet HS or Less 5% 8 18 69 Some College 12% 20 33 35 College or Higher 23% 24 34 19 Under $20,000 4% 6 21 69 $20,000 to $39,999 8% 13 31 48 $40,000 to $79,999 18% 21 31 30 Above $80,000 30% 29 30 11 8% 12 18 62 - 28 - Social and Economic Trends Digital Divide Proposals Two proposals for reducing the “digital divide” that are part of the Secretary of State’s recent “California eGovernment Plan” have the enthusiastic support of the public. One of the proposals calls for giving tax credits to companies that provide low-cost computers or Internet access to low-income households in California. Sixty-three percent of Californians say they are in favor of such a program. Support for the proposal is higher in Los Angeles County (68%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (66%), but it is strong in all regions. Not surprisingly, support is also higher among those groups adversely affected by the “digital divide.” Latinos are more likely to support the proposal than non-Hispanic whites (73% to 57%), and 68 percent of people with incomes below $20,000 favor the proposal compared to 60 percent of those with incomes over $80,000. Still, a majority in all groups favor this idea. A second proposal recently offered for bridging the “digital divide” would require California public schools to teach basic computer and Internet skills to students before they graduate from the eighth grade. This proposal enjoys overwhelming support, with nine in ten Californians saying they favor the proposal. Support for the proposal is consistently high across all regions, racial and ethnic, income, education, and age groups. There is equally strong support for these two proposals for bridging the “digital divide” among those who do and do not currently use computers and the Internet. "Do you favor or oppose giving companies tax credits if they provide low-cost computers or low-cost Internet access to low-income households in California?" Favor Oppose Don't know "Do you favor or oppose requiring California public schools to teach basic computer and Internet skills before students graduate from the eighth grade?" Favor Oppose Don't know All Adults 63% 30 7 89% 9 2 Central Valley 58% 35 7 87% 12 1 Region SF Bay Los Area Angeles Other Southern California Latino 66% 27 7 68% 24 8 60% 33 7 73% 19 8 91% 8 1 90% 7 3 90% 8 2 90% 8 2 - 29 - Social and Economic Trends The Internet and Privacy Issues As Internet use becomes more prevalent, a growing area of both private and public policy concern is how personal information might be used and threats to privacy. Thirty-seven percent of all California adults say they have decided not to purchase or use something on the Internet because of concerns about how their personal information might be used. Among Internet users, 62 percent have at least sometimes decided against an on-line use or purchase because of their privacy concerns. In a 1999 national survey by Harris, a similar six in 10 Americans who use the Internet reported deciding not to use or buy something while visiting websites because of concerns about how their personal information might be used. When asked how concerned they are about threats to personal privacy when using the Internet, almost half (48%) of all Californians say they are at least somewhat concerned. Among Internet users, 80 percent are at least somewhat concerned about threats to their personal privacy while on the Internet. In the same 1999 national survey by Harris, nine in 10 Americans who use the Internet said they are concerned about threats to their personal privacy while using the Internet. Concerns about Internet privacy are highest in the San Francisco Bay Area, where Internet use is most prevalent, and lowest in the Central Valley, where Internet use is least common. Forty-one percent of Bay Area residents are at least somewhat concerned about the use of personal information, compared to 33 percent in the Central Valley; 56 percent are at least somewhat concerned about threats to privacy in the San Francisco Bay area, compared to 44 percent in the Central Valley. Concerns about the Internet and privacy also follow the demographic trends in Internet use. Only 24 percent of Latinos say they have decided not to purchase something on the Internet because of concerns about the use of their personal information, as compared to 39 percent of non-Hispanic whites. Similarly, 31 percent of Latinos are concerned about threats to their privacy on the Internet, while more than half (53%) of non-Hispanic whites have these concerns. Reflecting their concerns about the Internet and privacy, two in three Californians feel that there should be new laws to protect privacy on the Internet and that existing laws are not sufficient. Support for new Internet privacy laws is consistent across all regions. However, despite fewer concerns about the Internet and privacy, Latinos are more likely than non-Hispanic whites to feel that new laws protecting privacy on the Internet are necessary (74% to 50%). Among Internet users and nonusers, a similar two in three believe that new laws are needed to protect privacy. - 30 - Social and Economic Trends February 2000 All Adults "Have you ever decided not to use or buy something on a web site because you were not sure how your personal information might be used?" Yes, often 20% Yes, sometimes 17 No 23 Don't use Internet 40 "How concerned are you about threats to your personal privacy when you are using the Internet?" Very concerned 24% Somewhat concerned 24 Not concerned 12 Don't use Internet 40 Central Valley 20% 13 22 45 21% 23 12 44 Region SF Bay Los Area Angeles Other Southern California Latino 19% 22 27 32 23% 12 22 43 20% 17 24 39 13% 12 14 61 24% 32 12 32 28% 19 10 43 25% 25 11 39 18% 14 7 61 "Which of the following is closest to your view: (a) there should be new laws to protect privacy on the Internet, or (b) existing laws are sufficient to protect privacy on the Internet?" (asked of all residents) February 2000 New laws to protect privacy Existing laws are sufficient Don't know All Adults 67% 24 9 Central Valley 68% 22 10 Region SF Bay Area Los Angeles 61% 68% 28 22 11 10 Other Southern California Latino 70% 74% 23 19 77 - 31 - Survey Methodology The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, with research assistance from Jonathan Cohen and Christopher Hoene. The findings of this survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,058 California adult residents interviewed from February 2 to February 10, 2000. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers, ensuring that both listed and unlisted telephone numbers were called. All telephone exchanges in California were eligible for calling. Telephone numbers in the survey sample were called up to five times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing by using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Each interview took an average of 20 minutes to complete. Interviewing was conducted in English or Spanish. Maria Tello translated the survey into Spanish. We used recent U.S. Census and state figures to compare the demographic characteristics of the survey sample with characteristics of California's adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to U.S. Census and state figures. The survey data in this report were statistically weighted to account for any demographic differences. The sampling error for the total sample of 2,058 adults is +/- 2 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 2 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger. The sampling error for the 1,582 registered voters is +/- 2.5% and for the 1,014 likely voters is +/- 3.5%. Sampling error is just one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. Throughout the report, we refer to four geographic regions. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “SF Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, and "Other Southern California" includes the mostly suburban regions of Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. These four regions were chosen for analysis because they are the major population centers of the state, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population; moreover, the growth of the Central Valley and “Other Southern California” regions have given them increasing political significance. We present specific results for Latinos because they account for about 24 percent of the state's adult population and constitute one of the fastest growing voter groups. For likely voters, the sample sizes for the African American and Asian subgroups are not large enough for separate statistical analysis. We contrast the opinions of Democrats and Republicans with "other" or “independent” registered voters. This third category includes those who are registered to vote as “decline to state” as well as a fewer number who say they are members of other political parties. In some cases we compare PPIC Statewide Survey responses to responses recorded in national surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center in 1999, Gallup in 1999, Harris in 1999, Potomac Associates in 1999, Fox News Opinion Dynamics in 2000, and Kaiser Family Foundation in 2000. We used 1998, 1999, and 2000 PPIC Statewide Surveys to analyze trends over time in California. - 33 - PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT FEBRUARY 2 – FEBRUARY 10, 2000 2,058 CALIFORNIA ADULT RESIDENTS; ENGLISH AND SPANISH MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 2% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE [Responses recorded for first 15 questions are from likely voters. All other responses are from all adults.] 1. In March 2000, California will hold an open primary. That means the voters will be able to vote for anyone they choose, regardless of the candidate’s party. If the presidential primary were held today, who would you vote for? (rotate names; then ask, “or someone else?”) 29% Al Gore, Democrat 24 George W. Bush, Republican 17 John McCain, Republican 10 Bill Bradley, Democrat 2 Alan Keyes, Republican 5 someone else (specify) 13 don't know 2. If these were the candidates in the presidential election in November 2000, who would you vote for? (rotate) 46% Al Gore, Democrat 45 George W. Bush, Republican 9 don't know 3. If these were the candidates in the presidential election in November 2000, who would you vote for? (rotate) 45% George W. Bush, Republican 42 Bill Bradley, Democrat 13 don't know 4. Which one issue would you like to hear the candidates for President talk about between now and the March 7th California primary? 19% schools, education 13 taxes, cutting taxes 10 health care, HMO reform 8 Social Security, Medicare 7 federal budget, spending 4 abortion 4 foreign policy, national security, defense 4 jobs, the economy, unemployment 3 environment, pollution 3 morals, family values 2 campaign finance 2 crime, gangs 2 guns, gun control 2 immigration, illegal immigration 7 other (specify) 10 don't know 5. Which of these statements is closest to your views about President Bill Clinton? 36% I like Clinton and I like his policies 5 I like Clinton but I dislike his policies 26 I dislike Clinton but I like his policies 31 I dislike Clinton and I dislike his policies 2 don't know 6. If the March 2000 primary election for the U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for? (rotate names; then ask, “or someone else?”) 49% Dianne Feinstein, Democrat 14 Tom Campbell, Republican 5 Bill Horn, Republican 4 Ray Haynes, Republican 2 someone else (specify) 26 don't know 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Dianne Feinstein is doing as a U.S. Senator? 59% approve 29 disapprove 12 don't know 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the job that the Republican leaders in Congress are doing? 41% approve 48 disapprove 11 don't know 9. Proposition 22—the “limit on marriages” initiative on the March 2000 ballot—adds a provision to the family code providing that only a marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 22? 57% yes 38 no 5 don't know 10. If gay and lesbian couples live in California and marry in other states, do you think their marriages should or should not be legally recognized in California? 45% should 49 should not 6 don't know - 35 - 11. Do you think that gays and lesbians should or should not be allowed to serve openly in the military? 69% should 26 should not 5 don't know 12. Proposition 26—the “school facilities, local majority vote, bonds, taxes” initiative on the March 2000 ballot—would authorize local school districts to issue bonds for construction, rehabilitation, or replacement of school facilities if approved by a simple majority of local voters. It authorizes property taxes higher than the existing 1 percent limit by majority vote, rather than the two-thirds currently required, to pay the bonds. The fiscal cost to local school districts are potentially in the hundreds of millions of dollars statewide each year within a decade, depending on voter actions on future local school bonds. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 26? 44% yes 47 no 9 don't know 13. Suppose your local school district had a bond measure on the March ballot to pay for school construction projects. Would you vote yes or no? 64% yes 29 no 7 don't know 14. Do you favor or oppose allowing local sales tax increases to pay for local transportation projects to pass with a simple majority instead of a two-thirds vote? 36% favor 58 oppose 6 don't know 15. How closely have you been following the news stories about candidates for the 2000 presidential election—very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 21% very closely 54 fairly closely 21 not too closely 4 not at all closely 0 don't know 16. Do you think that things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 65% right direction 27 wrong direction 8 don't know 17. Do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 78% good times 15 bad times 7 don't know We have some questions about kindergarten through twelfth grade public schools in California. 18. Where do you think California ranks in spending per pupil? Compared to other state’s, is California’s spending near the top, above average, average, below average, or near the bottom? 6% near the top 10 above average 24 average 29 below average 22 near the bottom 9 don't know 19. The National Education Association ranks California fortieth in the nation in per pupil spending. A proposed initiative for the November ballot would require California to meet the national average in per pupil spending within five years. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this initiative? 74% yes 19 no 7 don't know 20. The Legislative Analyst and State Director of Finance estimate that the initiative would result in tax increases of about 4 billion dollars annually by 20052006. Knowing this, would you vote yes or no on an initiative to require California to meet the national average in per pupil spending within five years? 56% yes 37 no 7 don't know 21. Which of these factors do you think is the most important ingredient for students to succeed in California’s K-12 public schools? (rotate) 35% teacher’s experience and education 23 class size 5 per pupil spending 22 student family background 10 student testing and standards 2 other (specify) 3 don't know 22. Do you think that schools in lower-income areas of the state have the same amount of resources—including good teachers—as schools in wealthier areas? 17% yes 78 no 5 don't know - 36 - 23. Do you think that school districts with the lowest student test scores in the state should or should not be given more resources than other school districts? 70% should 25 should not 5 don't know 24. In the past few years, do you think the racial and ethnic makeup of your region has been changing a lot, somewhat, very little, or not at all? 38% a lot 33 somewhat 19 very little 7 not at all 3 don't know 25. Overall, how do you think the racial and ethnic groups in your region are getting along these days—very well, somewhat well, somewhat badly, or very badly? 23% very well 57 somewhat well 13 somewhat badly 5 very badly 2 don't know 26. It has been reported that some police officers stop motorists of certain racial and ethnic groups because the officers believe that these groups are more likely than others to commit certain crimes. Do you believe that this practice, known as racial profiling, is widespread or not widespread in your region? 50% widespread 42 not widespread 8 don't know 27. In the past few years, do you think that the overall immigrant population in California has been increasing, decreasing, or staying about the same? (if increasing: "is that a lot or somewhat?") 60% increasing a lot 25 increasing somewhat 2 decreasing 11 staying about the same 2 none of these answers, don't know 28. Which of these two views is closest to yours? (a) immigrants today are a benefit to California because of their hard work and job skills. (b) immigrants today are a burden to California because they use public services. 54% immigrants are a benefit 34 immigrants are a burden 12 neither, don't know 29. In the past few years, do you think that illegal immigration from Mexico to California has been a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem? 42% big problem 40 somewhat of a problem 16 not a problem 2 none of the above answers, don't know 30. How do you rate the job performance of Governor Gray Davis at this time? 10% excellent 41 good 32 fair 8 poor 9 don't know 31. How do you rate the job performance of the California Legislature at this time? 3% excellent 34 good 41 fair 10 poor 12 don't know I'm going to read some pairs of statements. As I read each pair, tell me if the first statement or the second statement comes closer to your views—even if neither is exactly right. 32. (a) most elected officials care what people like me think. (b) most elected officials don't care what people like me think. 43% most elected officials care 55 most elected officials don't care 2 don't know 33. (a) government regulation of business is necessary to protect the public interest. (b) government regulation of business often does more harm than good. 46% government regulation is necessary 49 government regulation does harm 5 don't know 34. (a) poor people today have it easy because they can get government benefits without doing anything in return. (b) poor people have hard lives because government benefits don’t go far enough to help them live decently. 39% poor people have it easy 53 poor people have hard lives 8 don't know 35. Should the federal government create national standards to protect the rights of patients in HMOs and managed health care plans, or would this get the federal government too involved in health care? 63% federal government should create standards 33 federal government would be too involved 4 don't know - 37 - 36. Which of the following two options do you think would be the better way to guarantee health insurance coverage for Americans? (a) building on the current system in which most working people get health coverage through an employer, and the government covers the cost of insurance for the poor and unemployed. (b) switching to a system in which all individuals would buy their own health insurance but would receive a tax credit or subsidy to help them with the cost of the plan. 52% build on current system 41 switch to another system 3 neither (volunteered) 4 don't know 37. The United States has strong political, economic, and national defense ties with nations in Western Europe and Asia. From the standpoint of promoting our own political, economic, and national defense interests, which do you think are more important to the United States—nations in Western Europe or nations in Asia? 47% nations in Western Europe 39 nations in Asia 14 don't know 38. Thinking of all Asian countries, which one country in this region do you think is the most important to California's economy? 49% Japan 36 China 3 South Korea 2 Russia 2 another country (specify) 8 don't know 39. Some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain you are registered to vote? (if yes: "are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or as an independent or decline-to-state?") 33% yes, Democrat 27 yes, Republican 3 yes, other party 14 yes, independent 23 not registered 40. Some people who plan to vote can’t always get around to it on election day. With your personal daily schedule in mind, are you absolutely certain to vote in the California primary on March 7th, will you probably vote, are the chances about 50-50, less than 50-50, or don’t you think you’ll vote on March 7th? 72% certain to vote 14 probably vote 10 50-50 chance 1 less than 50-50 2 don’t think will vote 1 don't know 41. Would you consider yourself to be politically very liberal, somewhat liberal, middle-of-the-road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative? 10% very liberal 21 somewhat liberal 33 middle-of-the-road 25 somewhat conservative 9 very conservative 2 don't know 42. Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics—a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 18% great deal 50 fair amount 27 only a little 5 none 43. Would you say you follow what's going on in government and public affairs most of the time, some of the time, hardly ever, or never? 38% most of the time 49 some of the time 10 hardly ever 3 never 44. How often would you say you vote—always, nearly always, part of the time, seldom, or never? 46% always 23 nearly always 12 part of the time 5 seldom 13 never 1 don't know 45. Do you yourself ever use a computer at home, at work, or at school? (if yes: "do you do this often or only sometimes?") 57% yes, often (ask q. 46) 15 yes, sometimes (ask q. 46) 28 no (skip to q. 53) 46. Do you ever go on line to access the Internet or World Wide Web or to send or receive e-mail? (if yes: "do you do this often or only sometimes?") 47% yes, often (ask q. 47) 13 yes, sometimes (ask q. 47) 12 no (skip to q. 52) 28 don’t use a computer (skip to q. 52) 47. Do you ever go on line to visit government web sites, such as federal, state, or local agencies? (if yes: "do you do this often or only sometimes?") 8% yes, often 25 yes, sometimes 27 no 40 don’t use Internet/computer - 38 - 48. Do you ever go on line to visit retail web sites, such as stores or catalogs offering consumer products? (if yes: "do you do this often or only sometimes?") 13% yes, often 29 yes, sometimes 18 no 40 don’t use Internet/computer 49. Do you ever go on line to visit financial web sites, such as banks, credit cards, and investment firms? (if yes: "do you do this often, or only sometimes?") 14% yes, often 18 yes, sometimes 28 no 40 don’t use Internet/computer 50. Have you ever decided not to use or buy something on a web site because you were not sure how your personal information might be used? (if yes: "do you do this often or only sometimes?") 20% yes, often 17 yes, sometimes 23 no 40 don’t use Internet/computer 51. How concerned are you about threats to your personal privacy when you are using the Internet—very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not concerned? 24% very concerned 24 somewhat concerned 12 not concerned 40 don’t use Internet/computer 52. Which of the following is closest to your view? (rotate a and b) (a) there should be new laws to protect privacy on the internet. (b) existing laws are sufficient to protect privacy on the internet. 67% new laws to protect privacy 24 existing laws are sufficient 9 don’t know What do you think of these proposals for increasing computer use and Internet access in California? 53. First, do you favor or oppose giving companies tax credits if they provide low-cost computers or low-cost Internet access to low-income households in California? 63% favor 30 oppose 7 don’t know 54. Do you favor or oppose requiring California public schools to teach basic computer and Internet skills before students graduate from the eighth grade? 89% favor 9 oppose 2 don’t know [55-63. Demographic questions.] - 39 - PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Advisory Committee Ruben Barrales President Joint Venture – Silicon Valley Network Angela Blackwell President Policy Link Nick Bollman Senior Program Director The James Irvine Foundation Mollyann Brodie Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Matt Fong Attorney Sheppard Mullin William Hauck President California Business Roundtable Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Associate Claremont Graduate University Monica Lozano Associate Publisher and Executive Editor La Opinión Jerry Lubenow Director of Publications Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley Donna Lucas President Nelson Communications Max Neiman Director Center for Social and Behavioral Research University of California, Riverside Jerry Roberts Managing Editor San Francisco Chronicle Dan Rosenheim News Director KRON-TV Richard Schlosberg President The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Carol Stogsdill Senior Vice President APCO Associates Cathy Taylor Editorial Page Editor Orange County Register Steven Toben Program Officer The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Raymond L. 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