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object(Timber\Post)#3711 (44) { ["ImageClass"]=> string(12) "Timber\Image" ["PostClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Post" ["TermClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Term" ["object_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["custom"]=> array(5) { ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(12) "S_202MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "250403" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(84418) "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government Mark Baldassare Senior Fellow and Survey Director February 2002 Public Policy Institute of California Preface The PPIC Statewide Survey consists of an ongoing series of surveys designed to provide policymakers, the media, and the general public with objective, advocacy-free information on the perceptions, opinions, and public policy preferences of residents throughout the state of California. Begun in April 1998, the surveys have generated a database that includes the responses of over 48,000 Californians. This report presents the results of the twenty-fourth PPIC Statewide Survey. The surveys have included a number of special editions focusing on particular regions and themes: • The Central Valley (Nov. 1999, March 2001) • San Diego County (July 2000) • Orange County (Sept. 2001) • Population Growth (May 2001) • Land Use (Nov. 2001) • U.S.-Japan Relations (Sept. 2001) • The Environment (June 2000) The current survey is the ninth in a new series that will be conducted on a periodic basis throughout the 2002 election cycle. The series will focus on the social, economic, and political trends and public policy preferences underlying ballot choices in statewide races and citizens’ initiatives. This report presents the responses of 2,056 adult residents throughout the state on a wide range of issues: • The California election in 2002, including trends in likely voter preferences in the Republican gubernatorial primary in March, voters’ attention to news and political advertising, GOP candidate images, approval ratings for the governor relative to those for federal elected officials, potential match-ups of major party candidates in the gubernatorial election in November, support for Proposition 45 on the March ballot, and perceptions of the state’s current legislative term limits law. • Political profiles of California adults, registered voters, and likely voters in different political groups on policy issues such as abortion, gun control, environmental protection, homosexual rights, the provision of public services to illegal immigrants, and preferences for a smaller or larger government. • California policy issues, such as the most important issue in the governor’s race, satisfaction with efforts to improve the state’s public school system, perceptions of the seriousness of the state’s electricity problems, and preferences for new energy sources. • Social and economic trends, including overall outlook on the economy and direction of the state, perceptions of regional economies, and attitudes toward the Enron Corporation and the war on terrorism. • How growing regions and groups such as the Central Valley, Latinos, and independent voters affect overall statewide trends in ballot choices and policy preferences. Copies of earlier survey reports or additional copies of this report may be ordered by e-mail (order@ppic.org) or phone (415-291-4400). The reports are also posted on the publications page of the PPIC web site (www.ppic.org). -i- - ii - Contents Preface Press Release California 2002 Elections Political Profiles California Policy Issues Social and Economic Trends Survey Methodology Survey Questions and Results Survey Advisory Committee i v 1 7 13 19 23 25 30 - iii - - iv - Press Release DYNAMICS IN GOVERNOR’S RACE HAVE CHANGED DRAMATICALLY Riordan Still Ahead but Simon Gaining Ground in GOP Primary and November Election SAN FRANCISCO, California, February 21, 2002 — California’s airwaves have been saturated with ads for Governor Gray Davis and gubernatorial contender Richard Riordan but, ironically, the biggest gains in the race have been for political newcomer Bill Simon. A new survey by the Public Policy Institute of California shows that Simon has gained 20 points in the GOP primary since January and represents a serious challenge to Davis in November. Riordan is still leading Simon among likely voters in the GOP primary (41% to 24%), but his 37-point lead over Simon in January (41% to 4%) has now shrunk to 17 points. Simon has now taken second place over Jones, whose support has dropped since January from 13 percent to 9 percent. Looking ahead to potential match-ups in November, Riordan’s lead over Davis (46% to 40%) has stretched slightly from January (41% to 37%). But the bigger news is Davis’ declining margins over the other two GOP candidates. Davis now runs nearly even with Simon (44% to 40%), compared with a 13-point lead for the governor in January (42% to 29%). Jones has similarly closed the gap with Davis; Jones now trails the governor by only five points (44% to 39%), down from 11 points in January (42% to 31%). Other Election-Related Findings • Independent voters are divided between voting in the GOP primary (23%) and the Democratic primary (27%), while half will vote in neither (32%) or haven’t made up their minds (18%). • In Southern California, nearly half of GOP primary likely voters support Riordan over Simon and Jones. • Most likely voters in the GOP primary describe themselves as somewhat (40%) or very (21%) conservative. Simon and Riordan are virtually tied among voters who describe themselves as very conservative. • GOP primary likely voters are most likely to describe Riordan as middle-of-the-road (26%) or somewhat conservative (25%), while many remain unclear about the political orientations of Jones (59%) and Simon (48%). • People who recall having seen more TV advertisements by Davis support Riordan over Davis by a larger margin (51% to 36%) than among people who recall mostly Riordan ads (46% to 43%). • Governor Davis’ approval ratings among likely voters (44%) are unchanged from January (46%) and are well below those of President Bush (71%), Senator Dianne Feinstein (58%), and Senator Barbara Boxer (53%). • 59 percent of likely voters oppose Proposition 45 – the initiative that would let local voters petition to seek an extension of term limits for their incumbent legislators – with two in three saying that current term limits give state legislators the right amount of time in office. -v- Press Release “Californians’ concerns about a host of problems – including schools, electricity, the economy, the budget deficit, and terrorism – have sparked a great deal of interest in the gubernatorial election, and a fairly open-minded attitude toward the candidates,” says survey director Mark Baldassare. “A year ago, no one would have expected that Governor Davis would be in a close race for reelection, but much has changed in the public’s priorities and this has created a new political landscape.” What California Voters Think About Hot-Button Issues Abortion: 69 percent of adults, and 72 percent of likely voters, believe the government should not interfere with a woman’s access to abortion. Although that percentage rises to 82 percent for Democrats and 85 percent among independent likely voters, even a majority (54%) of Republican likely voters holds that view. The environment: 59 percent of adults, and 62 percent of likely voters, think it is worth passing more rigorous environmental laws and regulations, even if there is a downside for jobs and the economy. Democrats (76%) and independent voters (70%) are much more likely than Republicans (42%) to place the environment above economic issues. Gay rights: 54 percent of adults, and 56 percent of likely voters, think that society has not gone far enough in ending discrimination against homosexuals. There are strong partisan differences: Democrats (73%) and independent voters (58%) are much more likely than Republicans (34%) to want to do more for gay rights. Public services for illegal immigrants: Despite strong support eight years ago for Proposition 187 – the initiative that denied public services to illegal immigrants – a majority of all California adults (53%), and 48 percent of likely voters, say they favor providing government services such as health care and education to illegal immigrants and their children. Latinos (73%) are much more likely than non-Hispanic whites (44%) to want to provide services for illegal immigrants. Gun control: 53 percent of all adults, and 56 percent of likely voters, want stricter enforcement of current laws but do not want passage of new gun laws. Smaller or bigger government: Californians are split on whether they want a smaller government with fewer services (48%) or a bigger government with more services (47%). Fifty-four percent of likely voters prefer to have a smaller government with fewer services. Democrats (35%) are much less likely than independent voters (58%) and Republicans (75%) to favor a smaller government. The Three E's: Education, Energy, and Economy Still Dominate Voters' Minds Californians are most interested in hearing the candidates for governor talk about schools (19%), followed by electricity, and the economy (each 12%). Residents do not appear to count the state’s looming $12 billion budget deficit among their top priorities (3%). Likewise, terrorism (2%) barely registers with voters as the “most important issue.” Fewer than half of Californians express satisfaction with the state’s major efforts to improve public education in the past few years, including school safety (48%), class size reduction (47%), school accountability for test scores (38%), teacher quality (37%), school facilities (37%), and school spending (28%). However, those with children in the public schools express considerably more satisfaction than those without children at home. When asked what is most in need of improvement in California schools, residents name teachers (33%), followed by classroom overcrowding (13%), and curriculum (10%). Most Californians (79%) believe that the cost, supply, and demand for electricity is either a big problem or somewhat of a problem. That pessimism reaches into the future: Only 36 percent of - vi - Press Release residents are confident that the state’s electricity supply will be adequate over the next five years, while a majority (57%) says it will be at least somewhat inadequate. There is little question about how Californians feel about de-regulation – they don’t like it. Seventy-three percent of adults favor re-regulating the power industry, while only 23 percent would like to see further de-regulation. A majority of Californians (53%) opposes new offshore drilling along the California coast, and a sizable majority (69%) favors developing more renewable sources of energy, such as wind and solar power. State residents are split, however, on whether the energy crunch is best handled by building more power plants (46%) or by encouraging energy conservation (48%). Californians Not Brimming Over With Optimism, But Still Looking Ahead There is an almost even split between residents who expect good economic times for the state in the next 12 months (46%) and those who see gray skies on California’s horizon (47%). Despite that divergence, a majority of Californians (56%) believes the state is generally headed in the right direction. As for views of their region, half think they are in a recession (55%), though few describe this as a serious downturn (12%). Residents in the San Francisco Bay area are the most optimistic about their region’s economic future – 77 percent say they expect economic conditions to be better five years from now, compared to 59% of the residents in Los Angeles and 62% or the residents in the Central Valley. About the Survey The purpose of the PPIC Statewide Survey is to develop an in-depth profile of the social, economic, and political forces affecting California elections and public policy preferences. PPIC will conduct large-scale public opinion surveys on a regular basis leading up to the November 2002 election. Findings of the current survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,056 California adult residents interviewed from February 4 to February 14, 2002. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish. The sampling error for the total sample is +/- 2%. The sampling error for the 1,461 registered voters is +/- 2.5%, for the 937 likely voters +/- 3.5%, and for the 382 GOP primary likely voters +/- 5%. For more information on survey methodology, see page 23. Dr. Mark Baldassare is a senior fellow at PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder and director of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has conducted since 1998. PPIC is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to objective, nonpartisan research on economic, social, and political issues that affect Californians. The Institute was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. David W. Lyon is President and CEO of PPIC. This report will appear on PPIC’s website (www. ppic.org) on February 21. ### (see graphics next page) ### - vii - If the Republican primary election for governor were held today and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? Riordan Simon Jones Other/Don't know 26% 9% 24% 41% Illegal immigrants and their children should be … provided public services denied public services don't know 4% 43% 53% Government should … 80 69% 60 40 28% 20 0 pass more laws to restrict availability of abortion not interfere with woman's access to abortion 3% Don't know If these were the candidates in the November 2002 governor’s election, would you vote for … Riordan Davis Other/Don't know 14% 40% 46% In the past month, have you seen any television advertisements by the candidates for governor? Yes, Riordan Yes, Davis Yes, other No 25% 33% 10% 32% Should California policymakers re-regulate or further de-regulate the power industry? Re-regulate De-regulate Don't know 23% 4% 73% California 2002 Elections GOP Gubernatorial Primary With the March 5th primary race in the homestretch, Richard Riordan remains far ahead, but Bill Simon is gaining ground, and Bill Jones has currently slipped to third position. Among likely GOP primary voters, four in 10 support Richard Riordan, one in four favors Bill Simon, and one in 10 supports Bill Jones. Simon is the candidate with the most momentum: In one month, his support has increased from 4 percent to 24 percent. This increase has come as the pool of undecided GOP primary voters has shrunk from 42 percent to 26 percent. Among likely voters in the GOP primary, Riordan leads Simon and Jones among men and women and across all age, education, and income categories. Riordan’s support is stronger in Southern California, where nearly half support him, than in Northern California, where he gets the support of one in three. Among moderate and somewhat conservative GOP primary likely voters, Riordan is ahead of the other candidates, but he is virtually tied with Simon among voters who describe themselves as very conservative. Since December, independent voters have apparently become more interested in taking advantage of updated “open primary” rules that allow them to vote in the Democratic or Republican primary if they choose, rather than on an independent ballot. Although the percentage opting for the Republican primary is the same as in December, the percentage choosing the Democratic primary has grown, so that the percentages voting for the two parties are now about even. Half of all independents say they are either undecided or plan to vote in neither the Democratic nor Republican primary. "If the March 2002 primary election for governor were held today, who would you vote for?" Richard Riordan Bill Simon Bill Jones Other/ Don't know GOP Primary (likely voters) Dec 01 Jan 02 Feb 02 37% 41% 41% 5 4 24 13 13 9 45 42 26 "Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or neither?" Republican Democrat Neither Don't know Independents (likely voters) Dec 01 Jan 02 Feb 02 23% 18% 23% 11 20 27 40 42 32 26 20 18 -1- California 2002 Elections GOP Candidates’ Images Republican primary likely voters appear to be clearer on Riordan’s politics than they are about the political orientations of Simon or Jones. When asked to place the GOP candidates for governor on a spectrum from very liberal to very conservative, 59 percent of Republican likely voters didn’t know enough to place Jones, 48 percent didn’t know enough to place Simon, but only 23 percent couldn’t place Riordan. About half of GOP primary likely voters describe Riordan as middle-of-the-road or somewhat conservative. Among those who could categorize the other candidates, 24 percent describe Jones and 36 percent describe Simon as somewhat or very conservative. Among Riordan supporters, 75 percent describe him as either middle-of-the-road (35%) or somewhat conservative (40%). In contrast, 52 percent of Simon supporters describe Riordan as either liberal (33%) or middle-of-the-road (22%). Among Simon supporters, 61 percent describe their candidate as somewhat (39%) or very conservative (22%). Among the still-uncommitted GOP likely voters, two in three have yet to form an opinion about Riordan’s ideology and eight in 10 can’t place Simon or Jones. In this context, it is informative to consider the political orientation of those GOP primary likely voters themselves. They are much more likely than other likely voters or all California adults to describe themselves as conservative. Sixty-one percent of GOP primary likely voters describe themselves as either very conservative (21%) or somewhat conservative (40%). In contrast, only 13 percent of other likely voters and 33 percent of all adults see themselves as either very conservative or somewhat conservative. "Do you consider each of these candidates in the Republican primary for governor to be very liberal, somewhat liberal, middle-of-the-road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative, or don't you know enough to say?" GOP Primary Likely Voters Richard Riordan Bill Jones Bill Simon Very liberal 5% 1 1 Somewhat liberal 12% 4 3 Middle-ofthe-road 26% 12 12 Somewhat conservative 25% 19 23 Very conservative 9% 5 13 Don't know 23% 59 48 "Do you consider yourself very liberal, somewhat liberal, middle-of-the-road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?" GOP primary likely voters Other likely voters All adults Very liberal 3% 18 10 Somewhat liberal 5% 36 22 Middle-ofthe-road 29% 32 33 Somewhat conservative 40% 10 24 Very conservative 21% 3 9 Don't know 2% 1 2 -2- California 2002 Elections Campaign Awareness: News and Advertising The gubernatorial election is generating considerable public interest at this stage: 56 percent of likely voters are very closely or fairly closely following the news about the governor’s election. The numbers in those categories are about equally high for Democrats (57%) and Republicans (58%), and only slightly lower for independent voters (50%). Even higher is the percentage of likely voters – 75 percent – who have noticed television ads by gubernatorial candidates in the past month. When asked whose advertisements they have seen the most, 32 percent say they have seen more Davis ads and 33 percent have seen more by Riordan. Democrats and Republicans are equally likely to recall both the Davis and Riordan advertisements, while independent voters are more likely to say they have seen mostly Davis (36%) rather than mostly Riordan (27%) commercials. Among those who have mostly seen Riordan commercials, Riordan leads Simon and Jones in the GOP primary (41% to 31% to 6%). Among those who recall seeing mostly the Davis commercials, Riordan has an even wider margin over Simon and Jones (47% to 25% to 8%). Among voters who cannot recall seeing any commercials, 8 percent favor Simon, 15 percent favor Jones, 35 percent favor Riordan, and 42 percent are still undecided. "How closely have you been following news about candidates for the 2002 governor’s election – very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely?" Very closely Fairly closely Not too closely Not at all closely All Likely Voters 13% 43 35 9 Likely Voters Democrats 14% 43 36 7 Republicans 12% 46 31 11 Other Voters 11% 39 39 11 "In the past month have you seen any television advertisements by the candidates for governor (if yes: In the past month, whose ads have you seen the most)?" Yes, Davis Yes, Riordan Yes, Simon Yes, other No All Likely Voters 32% 33 3 7 25 Likely Voters Democrats 29% 34 2 8 27 Republicans 33% 34 5 4 24 Other Voters 36% 27 3 8 26 - 3 - February 2002 California 2002 Elections Potential November Match-ups In the December and January statewide surveys, Riordan and Davis were in a close race, while Davis was well ahead of Simon and Jones. Riordan and Davis are still close, with Riordan ahead by 46 percent to 40 percent. However, the distance has narrowed between Davis and Simon (44% to 40%) and Davis and Jones (44% to 39%). Davis’ paid advertising does not seem to be increasing voter support for him at this early stage. Among voters who recall seeing mostly Davis advertisements, Riordan actually leads Davis by a wider margin (51% to 36%) than he does among those who recall mostly Riordan advertisements (46% to 43%). Moreover, among voters who saw mostly Davis ads, it is a virtual tie between Simon and Davis (43% to 41%) and Jones and Davis (42% to 39%). Riordan has stronger support among GOP likely voters than Davis does among Democratic likely voters, and Riordan is split with Davis among independent likely voters. Riordan is ahead of Davis in every major region except the San Francisco Bay area. Latinos favor Davis over Riordan (50% to 35%), but non-Hispanic whites support Riordan over Davis (49% to 37%). Men favor Riordan over Davis (53% to 34%), but it’s a draw among women. In Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay area, Davis is ahead of Simon and Jones, but they are both ahead of him in the rest of the state. Women support Davis, but men are split between Davis and either Jones or Simon. Latinos favor Davis by a big margin, while non-Hispanic whites split their support between Davis and either Simon or Jones. Independent voters prefer Davis to Simon or Jones, but in both potential match-ups, one in four remains undecided. "If these were the candidates in the November 2002 governor's election, would you vote for …" (1) (2) (3) Likely Voters Likely Voters Likely Voters Gray Davis 40% Gray Davis 44% Gray Davis 44% Richard Riordan Other/Don't know 46 Bill Jones 39 Bill Simon 14 Other/Don't know 17 Other/Don't know 40 16 Likely Voters Gray Davis (1) Richard Riordan Other/Don't know Gray Davis (2) Bill Jones Other/Don't know Gray Davis (3) Bill Simon Other/Don't know Dem 67% 17 16 74 10 16 73 12 15 Party Rep 8% 81 11 10 76 14 11 76 13 Other Voters 42% 41 17 43 31 26 44 31 25 Central Valley 35% 50 15 39 45 16 38 47 15 Region SF Bay Area 53% 30 17 54 28 18 54 30 16 Los Angeles 40% 47 13 49 32 19 50 33 17 Other Southern California 31% 56 13 34 50 16 33 53 14 Latino 50% 35 15 61 27 12 61 30 9 -4- California 2002 Elections Governor’s Ratings in Perspective The difficulties Governor Davis faces in his reelection bid are a reflection of his low approval ratings, especially among likely voters. His job approval rating is 51 percent among all California adults, 48 percent among registered voters, and 44 percent among likely voters. His ratings are particularly low relative to the ratings of federal elected officials, even those of fellow Democrats. Seven in ten likely voters approve of the job that George W. Bush is doing as president; six in 10 approve of U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein’s job performance; and more than half say they approve of the job U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer is doing. Bush enjoys high approval ratings – now in evidence in all four PPIC statewide surveys following September 11th – because he has strong support from likely voters inside and outside of the GOP. Feinstein and Boxer have very strong approval ratings among Democrats and majority support from independent voters, which counters their low approval ratings among GOP voters. In contrast, Davis has weaker support than Feinstein and Boxer among Democrats and among independent voters. Solid majorities of voters in all regions of the state and across demographic groups approve of the job that Bush is doing in office. In fact, only those voters who described themselves as very liberal disapprove of Bush more than they approve of him. In contrast, among likely voters, Davis has less than majority approval in all regions of the state, and among both men and women. Riordan seems to receive a boost from Bush’s high standing: He leads Davis by a two-to-one margin among those voters who approve of President Bush’s performance in office. "Do you approve or disapprove of the way that …" Likely Voters Gray Davis is handling his job as governor? George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Dianne Feinstein is handling her job as a U.S. senator? Barbara Boxer is handling her job as a U.S. senator? Approve 44% 71 58 53 Disapprove 53% 27 31 35 Don’t Know 3% 2 11 12 Likely Voters Percent Approve (%) Gray Davis is handling his job as governor? George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Dianne Feinstein is handling her job as a U.S. senator? Barbara Boxer is handling her job as a U.S. senator? Democrats 63% 54 77 79 Republicans 22% 95 37 21 Other Voters 44% 63 58 56 - 5 - February 2002 California 2002 Elections Proposition 45 Proposition 45 is the citizens’ initiative that would allow local voters to petition to extend their incumbent legislators’ time in office beyond the current term limits. It is opposed by 59 percent of likely voters. There has been no change in support since the last survey, which was the first time we included the fiscal impacts language (then recently approved) that will appear on the March 5th ballot. A majority of voters is opposed to Proposition 45 in every region of the state and in all age, education, income, gender, and racial and ethnic groups. A majority in all partisan groups would also vote no on Proposition 45, though Democrats are the least opposed. The weak support that Proposition 45 currently receives is consistent with the responses to a follow-up question on term limits: Only one in four voters feels that current term limits give state legislators too little time in office. Two in three voters think that current term limits provide the right amount of time in legislative office, and this group opposes Proposition 45 by a three-to-one margin. "Proposition 45 on the March 2002 ballot–the 'Legislative Term Limits, Local Voter Petitions' initiative–allows voters to submit petition signatures to permit their incumbent legislator to run for re-election and serve a maximum of four years beyond the terms provided for in the constitution if a majority of voters approves. The fiscal impact includes unknown county costs, potentially up to several hundreds of thousands of dollars biennially statewide, and little or no cost to track the eligibility of re-election candidates. If an election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 45?" Likely Voters Dec 01* Jan 02 Feb 02 Yes 46% 31% 28% No Don't know 45 61 59 9 8 13 *At the time of the December survey, fiscal impacts were officially described as "unknown, probably minor." Yes No Don't know Dem 33% 52 15 Party Rep 22% 65 13 Other Voters 28% 63 9 Likely Voters Region Central Valley 23% 64 13 SF Bay Area 35% 54 11 Los Angeles 28% 60 12 Other Southern California 26% 58 16 Latino 26% 59 15 "Legislative term limits now allow members of the state assembly to serve up to three two-year terms and members of the state senate to serve up to two four-year terms. Do you think the current term limits give state legislators too little, too much, or the right amount of time in office?" Too little Too much Right amount Don't know Likely Voters 24% 7 66 3 -6- Political Profiles Abortion Californians remain strongly pro-choice on abortion. Seven in ten adults, registered adults, and likely voters believe the government should not interfere with a woman’s access to abortion. In the January 2000 statewide survey, a similar 71 percent said the government should not interfere with a woman’s access to abortion. When this question was asked in a 1999 national survey by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, 65 percent of those surveyed expressed pro-choice opinions. Democratic likely voters (82%) and likely voters who are not affiliated with a major party (85%) are strongly pro-choice, but even a majority of California Republican voters (54%) agrees that the government should not interfere with a woman’s access to abortion. Although Latino likely voters are often considered conservative on moral issues, our survey indicates no difference between their views and those of non-Hispanic white likely voters, with 27 percent in each group favoring more government restrictions. Only among all California adults are Latinos more likely than non-Hispanic whites to favor increasing government restrictions (37% to 25%). Likely voters from the San Francisco Bay area (81%) are more pro-choice than elsewhere in the state, but there are no other demographic differences among likely voters on the abortion issue, including between men and women. Among all adults, there is a greater tendency for wealthier and more highly educated Californians to be pro-choice. "Does the first statement or the second come closer to your views ..." All Adults Government should pass more laws that restrict the availability of abortion Government should not interfere with a woman's access to abortion Don't know 28% 69 3 Registered Voters 26% 71 3 Likely Voters Government should pass more laws that restrict abortions Government should not interfere with a woman's access to abortion Don't know All Likely Voters Democrats Republicans 26% 16% 44% 72 82 22 54 2 Other Voters 14% 85 1 Latino NonHispanic White 27% 27% 72 71 12 -7- Political Profiles Environmental Protection Despite an economic downturn – which is supposed to dampen support for “quality of life” issues – Californians continue to be highly committed to environmental protection: 59 percent believe that stricter environmental laws and regulations are worth the cost, which falls between the 57 percent recorded in June 2000 and the 64 percent in January 2000. We found no differences in the environmental stance of likely voters, registered adults, and all adults. Nationally, the Pew Center for the People and the Press asked the same question in August 2000 and found that a similar 61 percent believe stricter environmental laws are worth the cost. There are, however, significant partisan differences among likely voters: Three in four Democrats and seven in 10 independent voters favor environmental laws, while fewer than half of the Republicans we surveyed favor stricter laws at the expense of the economy. Latinos are similar to Democrats and independents on this issue, with 71 percent supporting regulation. Support among non-Hispanic whites is lower, but still strong (61%). A majority of voters in all demographic groups supports stricter environmental laws, but the majority is largest among the young (73%), the college educated (68%), and those living in Los Angeles (65%) or the San Francisco Bay area (75%). Interestingly, those who expect bad economic times in the next twelve months are no more likely to feel environmental laws cost too many jobs than are those who expect good economic times. "Does the first statement or the second come closer to your views …" All Adults Stricter environmental laws and regulations cost too many jobs and hurt the economy Stricter environmental laws and regulations are worth the cost Don't know 36% 59 5 Registered Voters 36% 60 4 Stricter environmental laws and regulations cost too many jobs and hurt the economy Stricter environmental laws and regulations are worth the cost Don't know All Likely Voters Democrats Likely Voters Republicans Other Voters Latino NonHispanic White 35% 21% 55% 27% 24% 36% 62 76 33 42 70 71 61 3 353 -8- Political Profiles Gay Rights A majority of Californians (54%) believes that we have not gone far enough in ending discrimination against homosexuals, while 40 percent believe that we have gone too far. There are no significant differences between registered voters, likely voters, and all adults on this issue. However, we found large partisan differences among likely voters: Most Democrats (73%) believe there is still too much discrimination, compared to nearly six in 10 independent voters, and one in three Republicans. Latino and non-Hispanic white voters are equally likely (56%) to believe that more can be done to end discrimination. Voter support for increasing the social acceptance of homosexuals is higher among 18 to 34 year-olds than others (69% to 52%) and rises with education. Women (61%) are more likely than men (50%) to believe that we have not gone far enough to end discrimination. There are also significant regional differences among likely voters: The belief that more needs to be done to end discrimination is much more common in the San Francisco Bay area (68%) and Los Angeles (63%) than in the Central Valley (46%) or the rest of Southern California (45%). "Does the first statement or the second come closer to your views …" We have gone too far in accepting homosexuality in our society We have not gone far enough in ending discrimination against homosexuals in our society Don't know All Adults 40% 54 6 Registered Voters 40% 54 6 We have gone too far in accepting homosexuality in our society We have not gone far enough in ending discrimination against homosexuals in our society Don't know All Likely Voters 39% 56 5 Democrats 23% 73 4 Likely Voters Republicans Other Voters 61% 33% 34 58 59 Latino 41% NonHispanic White 38% 56 56 36 - 9 - February 2002 Political Profiles Public Services for Illegal Immigrants California adults favor providing (53%) rather than denying (43%) government services such as education and health care to illegal immigrants. While there are no time trends or national responses available for comparison, it is worth noting that California voters passed an initiative in 1994 – Proposition 187 – that denied public services to illegal immigrants by a wide margin (59% to 41%). Among all registered voters and among likely voters, opinion about providing or denying public services to illegal immigrants is divided. However, Democratic likely voters (59%) and independent likely voters (50%) are much more likely than Republican likely voters (33%) to think that public services should be provided to illegal immigrants. Another major difference in public opinion is that 73 percent of Latino likely voters want to provide services and 53 percent of non-Hispanic white likely voters want to deny them. This difference in policy preferences is about the same for all adults and registered voters. Among likely voters, those in the areas of Southern California outside of Los Angeles (58%) and the Central Valley (53%) are the most opposed to providing services, while those in the San Francisco Bay area (58%) and Los Angeles (50%) are the most in favor. There are few other demographic differences for likely voters, but among all adults, opposition to services increases with age and income. Non-citizens (85%) are also much more likely to favor providing services to illegal immigrants than are naturalized (66%) or native (48%) citizens. "Does the first statement or the second come closer to your views …" Illegal immigrants and their children should be provided public services such as education and health care Illegal immigrants and their children should be denied public services, such as education and health care Don't know All Adults 53% Registered Voters 49% 43 47 44 Illegal immigrants and their children should be provided public services such as education and health care Illegal immigrants and their children should be denied public services, such as education and health care Don't know All Likely Voters Democrats Likely Voters Republicans Other Voters 48% 59% 33% 50% 49 38 33 64 45 35 Latino NonHispanic White 73% 44% 26 53 13 - 10 - Political Profiles Gun Control Californians’ opinions on gun control have not changed much over time. Today, 53 percent of Californians favor stricter enforcement of existing gun laws, rather than imposing new restrictions. In September 2000, a similar 56 percent expressed this policy preference. Whether we consider all adults (53%), registered voters (55%), or likely voters (56%), a majority favors simply doing more with the laws already in place. Among likely voters, Republicans (70%) are the most strongly opposed to new gun control laws, while fewer independent voters (58%) and Democrats (42%) are opposed to new restrictions. Latinos are about as likely as non-Hispanic whites to favor stronger enforcement of current laws rather than creating new ones (53% to 57%). Voters in the Central Valley (74%) and in the areas of Southern California outside of Los Angeles (62%) are more opposed to new gun regulations than those in the San Francisco Bay area or Los Angeles County (45% each). We did find that voter support for new gun laws rises with education. "In terms of gun laws in the United States, which of the following would you prefer …" Enforce current gun laws more strictly and not pass new gun laws Pass new gun laws in addition to enforcing current laws more strictly Don't know All Adults 53% 44 3 Registered Voters 55% 42 3 Enforce current gun laws more strictly and not pass new gun laws Pass new gun laws in addition to enforcing current laws more strictly Don't know All Likely Voters 56% Democrats 42% Likely Voters Republicans Other Voters 70% 58% 43 56 12 30 39 03 Latino 53% NonHispanic White 57% 46 42 11 - 11 - February 2002 Political Profiles Smaller Versus Larger Government California adults are split on whether they prefer a smaller government with fewer services (48%) or a larger government with more services (47%). Support for a smaller government is down from October 2000 (54%), but remains slightly stronger among registered voters (52%) and likely voters (55%). At the national level, 54 percent of all adults support a smaller government with fewer services, according to a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll. The proper size and role of government is a traditional point of distinction between the two major parties, so it is perhaps not surprising to find that a majority of Democratic likely voters (58%) favors larger government and an overwhelming majority of Republican likely voters (75%) favors smaller government. However, even 35 percent of Democratic likely voters would prefer less government. Independent likely voters fall between Democrats and Republicans on this issue. Six in ten Latino likely voters want a larger government with more services. This contrasts with the six in ten non-Hispanic white likely voters who say they want less government. Regardless of whether the opinions of all adults, registered voters, or likely voters are considered, support for smaller government increases strongly with age and income, and a larger percentage of men than women want smaller government. Residents in Los Angeles are more likely than those living in other areas of the state to prefer a larger government and more public services. "If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller government with fewer services or a bigger government providing more services?" Smaller government, fewer services Bigger government, more services Don't know All Adults 48% 47 5 Registered Voters 52% 42 6 Smaller government, fewer services Bigger government, more services Don't know All Likely Voters 55% 40 5 Likely Voters Democrats 35% 58 7 Republicans 75% 21 4 Other Voters 58% 37 5 Latino 32% 61 7 NonHispanic White 61% 34 5 - 12 - California Policy Issues Most Important Issue Californians want the candidates for governor to talk about the three issues that have held the attention of state residents since last fall. Residents place public schools (19%) at the top of the list, followed by electricity prices and deregulation (12%) and jobs and the economy (12%). No other issue is mentioned by more than one in 10 residents. So far, Californians are not considering the looming $12 billion state budget deficit as a top priority for gubernatorial debate. Terrorism and security issues also barely make it onto the radar screen (2%). Republicans are more likely than others to focus on the electricity issue, while Democrats are more inclined to name schools. Women are more likely than men to say that schools are the most important issue (24% to 14%). "Californians will go to the polls to elect a governor in 2002. Which one issue would you like to hear the candidates talk about during the governor's election this year?" Party Registration Schools, education Electricity cost, supply, demand Jobs, the economy, unemployment Immigration, illegal immigration Taxes, cutting taxes Environment, pollution Crime, gangs Health care, HMO reform State budget, state deficit Growth, sprawl, overpopulation Terrorism, security, bio-terrorism, anthrax Poverty, the poor, the homeless, welfare Traffic and transportation Housing costs, housing availability Guns, gun control Drugs Race relations, racial and ethnic issues State government, governor, legislature Other Don’t know All Adults 19% 12 12 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 7 14 Democrat 24% 11 14 1 5 5 3 5 3 2 1 2 1 2 1 0 1 1 6 12 Republican 18% 18 11 7 7 2 3 1 5 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 2 8 11 Other Voters 17% 10 11 5 4 6 4 4 4 3 2 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 8 10 Not Registered to Vote 15% 7 10 8 4 3 4 3 1 2 5 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 6 21 Likely Voters 21% 15 12 4 6 5 2 3 5 1 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 2 8 8 - 13 - California Policy Issues Perceptions of California’s Public Schools To probe the public’s concerns about schools further, we asked residents to evaluate six of the major efforts under way to improve the state’s public education system. People are far from content with progress to date. Only 28 percent are satisfied with school spending, 37 percent with the repair and construction of school facilities, 37 percent with teacher quality, and 38 percent with school accountability for student test scores. State opinion is more divided on efforts to improve school safety (48% satisfied to 45% dissatisfied) and class size reduction (47% to 45%). Still, fewer than half of the state’s residents are satisfied with any of these major efforts under way to improve the public schools. Californians in households with public school children – in most cases, the caretakers are parents – are more satisfied with each of the educational improvement measures listed than are residents who do not have children at home: school spending (38% to 25%), teacher quality (47% to 33%), testing accountability (49% to 34%), facilities (50% to 32%), safety (56% to 47%), and class size reduction (56% to 43%). However, the primary users of the public school system express majority support for the efforts being made in only three of these six educational improvement measures – safety, facility maintenance, and class-size reduction. Dissatisfaction with efforts to improve California’s schools spans political affiliations, socioeconomic groups, and regions of the state. However, there are some important differences. For example, Latinos are more satisfied than non-Hispanic whites with all of the measures but one: 52 percent of Latinos are dissatisfied with efforts aimed at improving school safety, compared to 40 percent of non-Hispanic whites. Californians with a college degree also differ from those with a high school diploma or less on these issues: More-educated Californians tend to be more dissatisfied with spending (63% to 51%), facility maintenance (61% to 47%), teacher quality (62% to 45%), and school accountability for test scores (55% to 42%). Older residents tend to be more critical than those who are younger. Across regions of the state, Central Valley residents are the most likely to be satisfied with school safety, while San Francisco Bay area residents are the most likely to be dissatisfied with facilities and teacher quality. One partisan difference also emerges: Democrats are less satisfied with the repair and construction of school facilities than Republicans. Finally, compared to those less likely to vote, likely voters are more dissatisfied with efforts in school spending, facility maintenance, teacher quality, and testing accountability. When asked to specify the one thing that most needs improvement in California’s public schools, state residents focus primarily on teachers (33%), classroom overcrowding (13%), and curriculum (10%). School safety (5%), testing (4%), state funding (4%), facilities (4%), and parental involvement (4%) are mentioned less. The most striking demographic difference mirrors the responses provided in the satisfaction data discussed above: Among Latinos, the second most important issue in public schools is safety, crime, violence, and gangs (16%). This issue registers a distant fourth on the list of issues most often highlighted by non-Hispanic whites (5%). While school reform is important to California residents, from where do they expect this reform to come? When asked who has primary responsibility for improving education in the California public schools, a large plurality of Californians says that primary responsibility lies with local school districts (40%), followed by the state superintendent of schools (20%), the state legislature (12%), the federal government (11%), and the governor’s office (11%). - 14 - California Policy Issues "Are you satisfied or not satisfied with the way each of these efforts to improve education in California's public schools is being handled ..." How about school safety? All Adults Parents of Public School Children Satisfied Not satisfied Don't know How about reducing class sizes? Satisfied Not satisfied Don't know How about school accountability for student test scores? Satisfied Not satisfied Don't know How about teacher quality, including recruitment and training? Satisfied Not satisfied Don't know How about repair and construction of school facilities? Satisfied Not satisfied Don't know How about school spending? Satisfied Not satisfied Don't know 48% 45 7 47% 45 8 38% 52 10 37% 56 7 37% 56 7 28% 60 12 56% 42 2 56% 41 3 49% 46 5 47% 51 2 50% 48 2 38% 53 9 Likely voters 51% 42 7 47% 46 7 32% 60 8 32% 61 7 30% 64 6 23% 67 10 - 15 - February 2002 California Policy Issues Electricity Cost, Supply, and Demand As we saw in the open-ended question at the beginning of this section, Californians rank electricity as one of the top three problems facing the state. When we asked residents more specifically how much of a problem they think it is, 45 percent said it is a big problem, and 34 percent said it is somewhat of a problem. Although nearly half of the state’s residents still think that electricity is a serious problem, this is a significantly lower percentage than during the first half of last year, when the electricity crisis was at its peak: In January 2001, 74 percent of the state’s residents said that electricity was a big problem in California, and the percentages who thought it was a serious problem remained high in our spring and summer surveys – 82 percent in May and 78 percent in July. A majority of residents believes that the electricity supply will be inadequate to meet the needs of California over the next five years: One in three residents feels the supply will be somewhat inadequate, and one in four believes that it will be very inadequate. Assessments of current and future electricity problems differ by political affiliation. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to characterize the current cost, supply, and demand for electricity as a big problem (51% to 42%). Similarly, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to believe that the supply of electricity over the next five years will be very inadequate. Independent voters are similar to Democrats in their assessment of the current situation and similar to Republicans in thinking about future supplies. Latinos are similar to non-Hispanic whites in assessing today’s electricity problems but are more optimistic about the future: 43 percent of Latinos think that the supply of electricity over the next five years will be adequate, compared to 33 percent of non-Hispanic whites. "How much of a problem is the cost, supply, and demand for electricity in California today?" Big problem Somewhat of a problem Not much of a problem Don’t know Jan 01 74% 18 7 1 May 01 82% 13 5 0 July 01 78% 16 5 1 Dec 01 48% 33 18 1 Feb 02 45% 34 20 1 "Do you think that the electricity supply that is available in California today will be adequate or inadequate for the state’s needs through the next five years?" Adequate Somewhat inadequate Very inadequate Don’t know All Adults 36% 33 24 7 Democrat 39% 33 20 8 Party Registration Republican 32% 35 28 5 Other Voters 32% 32 30 6 Not Registered to Vote 39% 32 22 7 Latino 43% 28 21 8 - 16 - California Policy Issues Although Californians continue to think that the cost and supply of electricity is a problem and that the supply over the next five years will be inadequate, they are split over whether policymakers should focus on building more power plants (46%) or encouraging energy conservation (48%). Although overall opinion is divided, there are significant partisan and regional differences in policy preferences. A higher percentage of Democrats than Republicans supports energy conservation (57% to 38%), and San Francisco Bay area residents are more likely than those in the rest of the state to prefer conservation programs to additional power plants. As a whole, Californians feel strongly about how one aspect of the energy problem in their state should be handled: Three out of four want the power industry re-regulated. Although there is strong support for re-regulation across all political affiliations, we do see a partisan gap, with Republicans (32%) more likely than Democrats (17%) to support further de-regulation. "Should California policymakers focus on building more power plants or encouraging energy conservation?" Build more power plants Encourage conservation Don’t know/other All Adults 46% 48 6 Democrat 38% 57 5 Party Registration Republican 58% 38 4 Other Voters 44% 48 8 Not Registered to Vote 45% 49 6 Likely Voters 46% 49 5 "Should California policymakers re-regulate the power industry to control prices or further de-regulate the power industry and leave prices up to market conditions?" Re-regulate the power industry Further de-regulate Don’t know/other All Adults 73% 23 4 Democrat 78% 17 5 Party Registration Republican 64% 32 4 Other Voters 75% 22 3 Not Registered to Vote Likely Voters 74% 73% 22 24 43 - 17 - February 2002 California Policy Issues Energy Sources Another major front in California’s effort to provide adequate energy supplies for the state’s residents is the search for and development of new sources of energy. In this survey, we asked Californians about offshore oil drilling, renewable energy, and whether recent international events justify new oil exploration in federally protected lands such as the Alaskan wilderness. Californians are opposed to expanded drilling off their coast and in federally protected lands. Fifty-three percent oppose new offshore drilling and, responding to another question, 67 percent say they believe that protected areas should remain off limits to new exploration, even considering America’s war on terrorism and the country’s dependence on oil from Middle East nations. In contrast, nearly seven in 10 favor the development of more renewable energy sources such as geothermal, wind, and solar, even if it means higher electricity prices. Support is high across all demographic groups. There are, however, some differences across political groups. Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to oppose offshore oil drilling (66% to 36%) and oil exploration in federally protected lands (81% to 44%), and somewhat more likely to support the development of renewable energy sources (75% to 67%). Independents and other voters are closer to Democrats than Republicans in their preferences on these issues. Likely voters are more inclined than Californians as a whole to open public lands such as the Alaskan wilderness to oil exploration (35% to 23%). Additionally, there is a significant difference between inland and coastal residents: Central Valley residents (51%) are more likely than those in San Francisco Bay area (30%) and Los Angeles (41%) to support new offshore oil drilling. "To address California's energy needs, would you favor or oppose allowing new drilling for oil and natural gas off the California coast?" Favor Oppose Don’t know All Adults 42% 53 5 Democrat 30% 66 4 Party Registration Republican 60% 36 4 Other Voters 36% 58 6 Not Registered to Vote 44% 48 8 Likely Voters 41% 56 3 "To address California's energy needs, would you favor or oppose developing more renewable energy sources, such as geothermal, wind, and solar, even if it meant higher electricity prices?" Favor Oppose Don’t know All Adults 69% 27 4 Democrat 75% 22 3 Party Registration Republican 67% 30 3 Other Voters 79% 19 2 Not Registered to Vote 61% 33 6 Likely Voters 78% 20 2 - 18 - Social and Economic Trends Overall Outlook Residents are evenly divided today on whether they expect good times or bad times for the state’s economy over the next 12 months. Forty-six percent of Californians say they expect good economic times, which is nine percentage points higher than last December (37%). Men (52%) continue to be more optimistic than women (40%) about the state’s economy. Republicans (50%) and other voters (48%) are more likely than Democrats (42%) to say that they expect good financial times during the next 12 months. Otherwise, there are no significant differences in perceptions of the economic outlook across age, income, education, or regions of the state. Fifty-six percent of Californians believe the state is headed in the right direction, while 36 percent think it is headed in the wrong direction. There has also been a slight but steady increase in the percentage of people that says the state is headed in the wrong direction in recent months: a seven point increase since November 2001, which was our first survey after September 11th and which showed a dramatic increase in optimism. Latinos (66%) continue to be more optimistic than non-Hispanic whites (53%) about the state’s direction, as are younger residents. Democrats (60%) and other voters (55%) are more likely than Republicans (47%) to say the state is headed in the right direction. There are no significant regional, gender, or income differences in opinion. "Do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?" All Adults Sep 99 Dec 99 Feb 00 Aug 00 Jan 01 May 01 Jul 01 Nov 01 Dec 01 Jan 02 Feb 02 Good times 72% 76% 78% 72% 51% 38% 41% 32% 37% 48% 46% Bad times 23 19 15 21 38 56 50 59 56 46 47 Don't know 5 5 7 7 11 6 99 7 6 7 "Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?" Right direction Wrong direction Don't know Dec 98 63% 28 9 Sep 99 61% 34 5 Dec 99 62% 31 7 Feb 00 65% 27 8 All Adults Aug 00 62% Jan 01 62% May 01 44% 30 29 48 898 Jul 01 44% 47 9 Nov 01 60% 29 11 Dec 01 58% 33 9 Jan 02 59% 32 9 Feb 02 56% 36 8 - 19 - Social and Economic Trends Regional Economies More than half (55%) of Californians believe that their region is in an economic recession, though only 12 percent believe that their region is in a serious recession. As another sign that the current economic downturn is perceived to be shallow and short in duration, Californians are more likely to expect their region to experience good economic times (54%) than bad economic times (41%) during the next 12 months. A higher percentage of San Francisco Bay area residents, compared to those who live elsewhere in the state, perceives their region to be in a recession. One out of five San Francisco Bay area residents says that their region is in a serious recession, and more than half describe their regional recession as moderate or mild. Statewide, Latinos and non-Hispanic whites have similar opinions about the state of their regional economies. Residents between the ages of 35 to 54 and those with higher educational levels are more likely than others to say that their region is experiencing an economic slowdown. No differences in perceptions are evident across party, gender, or income groups. When residents were then asked about their expectations for economic conditions in their region five years from now, two in three throughout the state say they expect conditions to improve. Interestingly, the hard-hit San Francisco Bay area residents are the most likely to expect their region to be in better shape five years from now than it is today. Statewide, residents’ optimism about their region’s economic future increases with income and education. There are no significant differences across gender, age, racial and ethnic groups, or political groups. Would you say that your region is in an economic recession, or not? Yes, serious recession Yes, moderate recession Yes, mild recession No Don’t know All Adults Central Valley 12% 27 16 42 3 9% 22 16 47 6 What about five years from now? Compared to today, do you expect economic conditions in your region to get better, get worse, or stay the same? Get better Get worse Stay the same Don’t know All Adults 64% 10 20 6 Central Valley 62% 14 18 6 Region SF Bay Area Los Angeles 19% 11% 36 29 16 14 28 42 14 Region SF Bay Area Los Angeles 77% 8 12 3 59% 11 23 7 Other Southern California Latino 8% 23 18 47 4 12% 24 16 44 4 Other Southern California Latino 65% 8 22 5 60% 12 25 3 - 20 - Social and Economic Trends Enron Six in 10 Californians have very closely (20%) or fairly closely (40%) followed news about the bankruptcy of the Enron Corporation. Six in 10 residents also believe public officials made or changed policy decisions as a direct result of campaign contributions they received from Enron. Interestingly, Californians (59%) are less likely than Americans in a CBS News poll in January to believe that Enron contributions affected public policy decisions (72%). In California, nearly seven in 10 Democrats (68%), six in 10 independent voters (58%), and half of Republicans (49%) see a link between Enron’s campaign contributions and policymaking. Moreover, California residents who have been following news about Enron very closely (71%) or fairly closely (63%) are more likely than others to perceive a link between campaign contributions from Enron and public policy decisions. Many Californians (55%) support the idea of allowing individuals to invest a portion of their Social Security contributions in the stock market. However, support is almost 10 percentage points lower than it was in the August 2000 statewide survey (64%), which was conducted well before the financial losses of Enron employees in their 401K retirement plans and the stock market’s increased volatility. There has been a decrease across the board in support for investing Social Security funds in the stock market, although support has declined more among Democrats (57% to 44%) than among Republicans (71% to 64%) and independent voters (64% to 56%). Of those who have followed the news about the Enron collapse very closely, support for allowing people to invest some of their Social Security money into the stock market declines to 45 percent. Support for this proposal also declines with age, but increases with income. There are no differences between Latinos and non-Hispanic whites or across education groups. Residents of the Bay area are evenly split on this issue, while there is majority support for privatizing a portion of Social Security in every other region. "Do you think public officials made or changed policy decisions as a direct result of campaign contributions they received from the Enron energy corporation?" Yes No Don't know Party Registration All Adults 59% 22 19 Democrats 68% 15 17 Republicans 49% 34 17 Other Voters 58% 22 20 "Would you support or oppose a plan in which people who chose to do so could invest some of their Social Security contributions in the stock market?" Support Oppose Don't know Party Registration All Adults 55% 41 4 Democrats 44% 54 2 Republicans 64% 33 3 Other Voters 56% 40 4 - 21 - February 2002 Social and Economic Trends War on Terrorism Californians continue to be fixated on news about terrorism and security issues, with almost nine in 10 residents following these news stories either very closely or fairly closely. On one high-profile story regarding the war on terrorism, there is considerable agreement: Most Californians (67%) believe that John Walker Lindh, the American citizen captured in Afghanistan, consciously aligned himself with a terrorist group and took up arms against the United States. This perception increases with how closely people have been following news about terrorism and security issues and is shared across all demographic groups. However, race and ethnicity, income, and political party do influence the public’s perceptions of this war-related news story. Republicans (82%) are much more likely to believe that Lindh consciously aligned himself with a terrorist group than either Democrats (60%) or other voters (66%). Latinos are less likely than non-Hispanic whites to believe that Lindh is a conscious terrorist (58% to 72%). San Francisco Bay area residents are not any more sympathetic to Lindh, even though he is from Marin County: 65 percent of Bay area residents think that Lindh knowingly took up arms against the United States. Californians are split on the issue of whether the United States should determine its policies regarding the war on terrorism unilaterally (48%) or take into account the wishes of its allies (46%). In contrast, a national study by the Pew Research Center and the Council on Foreign Relations found in October 2001 that 59 percent of all adults thought the United States should strongly take into account the interests of its allies. In California, Republicans (59%) favor unilateral policies, while a majority of Democrats (54%) prefers policies that reflect the interests of U.S. allies. San Francisco Bay area and Los Angeles residents, along with the more educated, are the most likely to want to take into account the interests of U.S. allies. There are no differences across race, income, or gender on this issue. "Which comes closest to your views on John Walker Lindh, the American citizen captured in Afghanistan fighting for the Taliban?" Party Registration All Adults John Walker Lindh is a misguided young man who got caught up in events beyond his control 25% John Walker Lindh consciously aligned himself with a terrorist group and took up arms against the U.S. 67 Don't know 8 Democrats 30% 60 10 Republicans 14% 82 4 Other Voters 25% 66 9 "How should the U.S. determine its policy with regard to the war on terrorism?" Party Registration It should be based mostly on the national interests of the U.S. It should strongly take into account the interests of its allies Don't know All Adults 48% 46 6 Democrats 41% 54 5 Republicans 59% 37 4 Other Voters 46% 48 6 - 22 - Survey Methodology The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, with the assistance of Jon Cohen, survey research manager, and Lisa Cole and Eric McGhee, research associates. The findings of this survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,056 California adult residents interviewed from February 4 to February 14, 2002. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers, ensuring that both listed and unlisted telephone numbers were called. All telephone exchanges in California were eligible for calling. Telephone numbers in the survey sample were called up to five times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing by using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Each interview took an average of 20 minutes to complete. Interviewing was conducted in English or Spanish. Casa Hispana translated the survey into Spanish. We used recent U.S. Census and state figures to compare the demographic characteristics of the survey sample with characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the census and state figures. The survey data in this report were statistically weighted to account for any demographic differences. The sampling error for the total sample of 2,056 adults is +/- 2 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 2 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger. The sampling error for the 1,461 registered voters is +/- 2.5 percent, for the 937 likely voters +/- 3.5 percent, and for the 382 GOP primary likely voters +/- 5 percent. Sampling error is just one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. Throughout the report, we refer to four geographic regions. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “SF Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, and “Other Southern California” includes the mostly suburban regions of Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. These four regions were chosen for analysis because they are the major population centers of the state, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population; moreover, the growth of the Central Valley and “Other Southern California” regions have given them increasing political significance. We present specific results for Latinos because they account for about 28 percent of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest growing voter groups. The sample sizes for the African American and Asian subgroups are not large enough for separate statistical analysis. We contrast the opinions of Democrats and Republicans with “other” or “independent” registered voters. This third category includes those who are registered to vote as “decline to state” as well as a fewer number who say they are members of other political parties. In some cases, we compare PPIC Statewide Survey responses to responses recorded in national surveys conducted by the NBC News/Wall Street Journal (June 1999), the Pew Center for the People and the Press (August 2000), ABC News/Washington Post (January 2002), CBS News (January 2002), and the Pew Center and Council on Foreign Relations (October 2001). We used PPIC Statewide Surveys 1998-2002 to analyze trends over time in California. - 23 - - 24 - PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT FEBRUARY 4 – FEBRUARY 14, 2002 2,056 CALIFORNIA ADULT RESIDENTS; ENGLISH AND SPANISH MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 2% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE 1. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 56% right direction 36 wrong direction 8 don't know 2. Californians will go to the polls to elect a governor in 2002. Which one issue would you like to hear the candidates talk about during the governor’s election this year? (code, don’t read) 19% schools, education 12 electricity cost, supply, demand 12 jobs, the economy, unemployment 5 immigration, illegal immigration 5 taxes, cutting taxes 4 environment, pollution 3 crime, gangs 3 health care, HMO reform 3 state budget, state deficit 2 growth, sprawl, overpopulation 2 terrorism, security issues 2 poverty, the poor, the homeless, welfare 2 traffic and transportation 1 housing costs, housing availability 1 guns, gun control 1 drugs 1 race relations, racial and ethnic issues 1 state government, governor, legislature 7 other (specify) 14 don't know I would like to ask you a few questions about California’s upcoming primary election on March 5th. 3. First, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain you are registered to vote? (if yes: Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, with another party, or as an independent?) 32% yes, Democrat (skip to q.6) 26 yes, Republican (skip to q.5) 3 yes, other party (skip to q.6) 13 yes, independent (ask q.4) 26 no, not registered (skip to q.6) [Responses recorded for questions 4-15 are from likely voters only. All other responses are from all adults.] 4. (Independent likely voters only) California voters like yourself will be able to choose between voting in the Republican primary and the Democratic primary in March 2002. Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or neither? 23% Republican primary 27 Democratic primary (skip to q.6) 32 neither (skip to q.6) 18 don’t know (skip to q.6) 5. (GOP primary likely voters only) If the Republican primary election for governor were held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? (rotate names, then ask “or someone else?”) 41% Richard Riordan 24 Bill Simon 9 Bill Jones 26 other/don’t know If these were the candidates in the November 2002 governor’s election … (rotate questions 6 to 8) 6. Would you vote for … 44% Gray Davis, a Democrat 39 Bill Jones, a Republican 17 other/don’t know 7. Would you vote for … 40% Gray Davis, a Democrat 46 Richard Riordan, a Republican 14 other/don’t know 8. Would you vote for … 44% Gray Davis, a Democrat 40 Bill Simon, a Republican 16 other/don’t know 9. How closely have you been following news about candidates for the 2002 governor’s election – very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 13% very closely 43 fairly closely 35 not too closely 9 not at all closely - 25 - 10. In the past month, have you seen any television advertisements by the candidates for governor? (if yes: Whose ads have you seen the most)? 33% yes, Richard Riordan 32 yes, Gray Davis 3 yes, Bill Simon 1 yes, Bill Jones 6 yes, other answer / yes, don’t know 25 no Do you consider each of these candidates in the Republican primary for governor to be very liberal, somewhat liberal, middle-of-the-road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative, or don’t you know enough to say? (rotate questions 11 to 13) 11. How about Bill Jones? 1% very liberal 3 somewhat liberal 9 middle-of-the-road 17 somewhat conservative 8 very conservative 62 don’t know 12. How about Richard Riordan? 4% very liberal 11 somewhat liberal 21 middle-of-the-road 26 somewhat conservative 12 very conservative 26 don’t know 13. How about Bill Simon? 1% very liberal 3 somewhat liberal 11 middle-of-the-road 18 somewhat conservative 14 very conservative 53 don’t know 14. On another topic, Proposition 45 on the March 2002 ballot – the “Legislative Term Limits, Local Voter Petitions" initiative –allows voters to submit petition signatures to permit their incumbent legislator to run for re-election and serve a maximum of four years beyond the terms provided for in the constitution if a majority of voters approves. The fiscal impact includes unknown county costs and potentially up to several hundreds of thousands of dollars biennially statewide to verify voter petition signatures, and little or no state cost to track the eligibility of re-election candidates. If an election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 45? 28% yes 59 no 13 don’t know - 26 - 15. Legislative term limits now allow members of the state assembly to serve up to three two-year terms and members of the state senate to serve up to two four-year terms. Do you think the current term limits give state legislators too little, too much, or the right amount of time in office? 24% too little 7 too much 66 right amount 3 don’t know 16. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 46% good times 47 bad times 7 don't know 17. How about the economic conditions in your part of California? Do you think that during the next 12 months your region will have good times financially or bad times? 54% good times 41 bad times 5 don't know 18. Would you say that your region is in an economic recession or not? (if yes: Do you think it is in a serious, a moderate, or a mild recession?) 12% yes, serious recession 27 yes, moderate recession 16 yes, mild recession 42 no 3 don't know 19. What about five years from now? Compared to today, do you expect economic conditions in your region to get better, get worse, or stay the same? 64% get better 10 get worse 20 stay the same 6 don't know 20. Overall, do you think that your region is in better economic shape, worse economic shape, or about the same economic shape as the rest of California? 37% better shape 17 worse shape 43 about the same 3 don't know 21. On another topic, how much of a problem is the cost, supply, and demand for electricity in California today? Is it a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem? 45% big problem 34 somewhat of a problem 20 not much of a problem 1 don’t know 22. Do you think that the electricity supply that is available in California today will be adequate or inadequate for the state’s needs through the next five years? (if inadequate: Is that somewhat or very inadequate?) 36% adequate 33 somewhat inadequate 24 very inadequate 7 don’t know I am now going to read you some pairs of statements. As I read each pair, please tell me if the first statement or the second is closer to your views – even if neither statement is exactly right. (rotate questions and pairs 23 and 24) 23. California policymakers should focus on (a) building more power plants or (b) encouraging energy conservation. 46% build more power plants 48 encourage energy conservation 6 other/don’t know 24. California policymakers should (a) re-regulate the power industry to control prices or (b) further de-regulate the power industry to leave prices up to market conditions. 73% re-regulate 23 de-regulate 4 don’t know 25. To address California’s energy needs, would you favor or oppose allowing new drilling for oil and natural gas off the California coast? 42% favor 53 oppose 5 don’t know 26. To address California’s energy needs, would you favor or oppose developing more renewable energy sources, such as geothermal, wind, and solar, even if it meant higher electricity prices? 69% favor 27 oppose 4 don’t know 27. Do you think that America’s war on terrorism and dependence on oil from Mideast nations offer good reasons to allow new oil exploration in federally protected lands such as the Alaskan wilderness, or should the federal government continue to keep these areas off limits and consider other solutions? 29% good reason for new exploration 67 consider other solutions 4 don’t know 28. On another topic, people have different ideas about California’s public schools. What do you think most needs improvement in California’s kindergarten through 12th grade public schools? (code, don’t read) 33% teachers: salaries, shortage, quality 13 class size, overcrowded classrooms 10 curriculum 5 school safety, crime, violence, gangs 4 state funding, local funding 4 student testing and accountability 4 parents, parental involvement 4 building and repair of school facilities 2 English language instruction for immigrants 2 books, supplies 8 other (specify) 11 don't know Are you satisfied or not satisfied with the way each of these efforts to improve education in California’s public schools is being handled ... (rotate questions 29 to 34) 29. How about school spending? 28% satisfied 60 not satisfied 12 don’t know 30. How about school safety? 48% satisfied 45 not satisfied 7 don’t know 31. How about repair and construction of school facilities? 37% satisfied 56 not satisfied 7 don’t know 32. How about teacher quality, including recruitment and training? 37% satisfied 56 not satisfied 7 don’t know 33. How about school accountability for student test scores? 38% satisfied 52 not satisfied 10 don’t know 34. How about reducing class sizes? 47% satisfied 45 not satisfied 8 don’t know - 27 - February 2002 35. Who do you think has primary responsibility for improving education in California’s public schools: (a) the federal government, (b) the governor’s office, (c) the state superintendent of schools, (d) the state legislature, or (e) local school districts? (rotate answer categories) 40% local school districts 20 state superintendent of schools 12 state legislature 11 federal government 11 governor’s office 6 other/don’t know On another topic ... (rotate questions 36 to 39) 36. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling his job as president of the United States? 76% approve 22 disapprove 2 don’t know 37. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Gray Davis is handling his job as governor of California? 51% approve 42 disapprove 7 don’t know 38. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Dianne Feinstein is handling her job as a U.S. senator? 57% approve 25 disapprove 18 don’t know 39. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barbara Boxer is handling her job as a U.S. senator? 52% approve 27 disapprove 21 don’t know 40. On another topic, how closely have you been following news about the Enron energy corporation – very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 20% very closely 40 fairly closely 27 not too closely 13 not at all closely 41. Do you think public officials made or changed policy decisions as a direct result of campaign contributions they received from the Enron energy corporation? 59% yes 22 no 19 don’t know 42. On another topic, would you support or oppose a plan in which people who chose to do so could invest some of their Social Security contributions in the stock market? 55% support 41 oppose 4 don’t know 43. On another topic, how closely have you been following news about terrorism and security issues – very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 46% very closely 43 fairly closely 9 not too closely 2 not at all closely 44. Which comes closest to your views on John Walker Lindh, the American citizen captured in Afghanistan fighting for the Taliban: (rotate) (a) John Walker Lindh is a misguided young man who got caught up in events beyond his control, (b) John Walker Lindh consciously aligned himself with a terrorist group and took up arms against the United States. 25% misguided young man 67 conscious member of a terrorist group 8 don’t know 45. How should the United States determine its policy with regard to the war on terrorism? Should it be based mostly on the national interests of the United States, or should it strongly take into account the interests of its allies? 48% based on national interests 46 take into account interests of allies 6 don’t know I am going to read some pairs of statements. As I read each pair, please tell me if the first statement or the second is closer to your views – even if neither is exactly right. (rotate questions and pairs 46 to 49) 46. (a) The government should pass more laws that restrict the availability of abortion, or (b) The government should not interfere with a woman’s access to abortion. 28% government should pass more laws 69 government should not interfere 3 don’t know 47. (a) Stricter environmental laws and regulations cost too many jobs and hurt the economy, or (b) Stricter environmental laws and regulations are worth the cost. 36% cost too many jobs and hurt the economy 59 stricter environmental laws worth the cost 5 don’t know - 28 - 48. (a) Illegal immigrants and their children should be provided public services such as education and health care, or (b) Illegal immigrants and their children should be denied public services such as education and health care. 53% illegal immigrants provided public services 43 illegal immigrants denied public services 4 don’t know 49. (a) We have gone too far in accepting homosexuality in our society, or (b) We have not gone far enough in ending discrimination against homosexuals in our society. 40% have gone too far 54 have not gone far enough 6 don’t know 50. In terms of gun laws in the United States, which of the following would you prefer to see happen: (rotate) (a) enforce current gun laws more strictly and not pass new gun laws (b) pass new gun laws in addition to enforcing current laws more strictly. 53% enforce current laws; not pass new laws 44 pass new laws; enforce laws more strictly 3 don’t know 51. If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller government with fewer services or a bigger government providing more services? 48% smaller government, fewer services 47 bigger government, more services 5 don’t know 52. How do you get most of your news – from television, newspapers, radio, the Internet, magazines, or talking to other people? (if television: Would that be major network TV, local TV, or cable news stations such as CNN or MSNBC?) 23% newspapers 23 cable television 16 local television 12 network television 11 radio 8 Internet 4 talking to other people 1 magazines 2 other/don’t know 53. On another topic, would you consider yourself to be politically very liberal, somewhat liberal, middleof-the-road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative? 10% very liberal 22 somewhat liberal 33 middle-of-the-road 24 somewhat conservative 9 very conservative 2 don't know 54. Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics – a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 17% great deal 44 fair amount 31 only a little 8 none/don't know 55. How often would you say you vote – always, nearly always, part of the time, seldom, or never? 49% always 21 nearly always 11 part of the time 5 seldom 14 never 56. Some people who plan to vote can’t always get around to it on election day. With your own personal daily schedule in mind, are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances about 50-50, less than 50-50, or don’t you think you will vote in the California primary election on March 5th? 55% absolutely certain 15 probably 12 about 50-50 4 less than 50-50 13 will not vote 1 other/don’t know [57-65: demographic questions] - 29 - February 2002 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Advisory Committee Mary Bitterman President The James Irvine Foundation Angela Blackwell President Policy Link Paul Brest President The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Mollyann Brodie Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley Matt Fong Chairman Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation Advisory Committee William Hauck President California Business Roundtable Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Monica Lozano President and Chief Operating Officer La Opinión Donna Lucas President NCG Porter Novelli Max Neiman Director Center for Social and Behavioral Research University of California, Riverside Dan Rosenheim News Director KPIX-TV Richard Schlosberg President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Carol Stogsdill President Stogsdill Consulting Cathy Taylor Vice President and Editorial Commentary Director Orange County Register Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center - 30 -" } ["___content":protected]=> string(102) "

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" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(112) "https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-february-2002/s_202mbs/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(8161) ["ID"]=> int(8161) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:35:22" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(3290) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(8) "S 202MBS" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(8) "s_202mbs" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(12) "S_202MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "250403" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(84418) "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government Mark Baldassare Senior Fellow and Survey Director February 2002 Public Policy Institute of California Preface The PPIC Statewide Survey consists of an ongoing series of surveys designed to provide policymakers, the media, and the general public with objective, advocacy-free information on the perceptions, opinions, and public policy preferences of residents throughout the state of California. Begun in April 1998, the surveys have generated a database that includes the responses of over 48,000 Californians. This report presents the results of the twenty-fourth PPIC Statewide Survey. The surveys have included a number of special editions focusing on particular regions and themes: • The Central Valley (Nov. 1999, March 2001) • San Diego County (July 2000) • Orange County (Sept. 2001) • Population Growth (May 2001) • Land Use (Nov. 2001) • U.S.-Japan Relations (Sept. 2001) • The Environment (June 2000) The current survey is the ninth in a new series that will be conducted on a periodic basis throughout the 2002 election cycle. The series will focus on the social, economic, and political trends and public policy preferences underlying ballot choices in statewide races and citizens’ initiatives. This report presents the responses of 2,056 adult residents throughout the state on a wide range of issues: • The California election in 2002, including trends in likely voter preferences in the Republican gubernatorial primary in March, voters’ attention to news and political advertising, GOP candidate images, approval ratings for the governor relative to those for federal elected officials, potential match-ups of major party candidates in the gubernatorial election in November, support for Proposition 45 on the March ballot, and perceptions of the state’s current legislative term limits law. • Political profiles of California adults, registered voters, and likely voters in different political groups on policy issues such as abortion, gun control, environmental protection, homosexual rights, the provision of public services to illegal immigrants, and preferences for a smaller or larger government. • California policy issues, such as the most important issue in the governor’s race, satisfaction with efforts to improve the state’s public school system, perceptions of the seriousness of the state’s electricity problems, and preferences for new energy sources. • Social and economic trends, including overall outlook on the economy and direction of the state, perceptions of regional economies, and attitudes toward the Enron Corporation and the war on terrorism. • How growing regions and groups such as the Central Valley, Latinos, and independent voters affect overall statewide trends in ballot choices and policy preferences. Copies of earlier survey reports or additional copies of this report may be ordered by e-mail (order@ppic.org) or phone (415-291-4400). The reports are also posted on the publications page of the PPIC web site (www.ppic.org). -i- - ii - Contents Preface Press Release California 2002 Elections Political Profiles California Policy Issues Social and Economic Trends Survey Methodology Survey Questions and Results Survey Advisory Committee i v 1 7 13 19 23 25 30 - iii - - iv - Press Release DYNAMICS IN GOVERNOR’S RACE HAVE CHANGED DRAMATICALLY Riordan Still Ahead but Simon Gaining Ground in GOP Primary and November Election SAN FRANCISCO, California, February 21, 2002 — California’s airwaves have been saturated with ads for Governor Gray Davis and gubernatorial contender Richard Riordan but, ironically, the biggest gains in the race have been for political newcomer Bill Simon. A new survey by the Public Policy Institute of California shows that Simon has gained 20 points in the GOP primary since January and represents a serious challenge to Davis in November. Riordan is still leading Simon among likely voters in the GOP primary (41% to 24%), but his 37-point lead over Simon in January (41% to 4%) has now shrunk to 17 points. Simon has now taken second place over Jones, whose support has dropped since January from 13 percent to 9 percent. Looking ahead to potential match-ups in November, Riordan’s lead over Davis (46% to 40%) has stretched slightly from January (41% to 37%). But the bigger news is Davis’ declining margins over the other two GOP candidates. Davis now runs nearly even with Simon (44% to 40%), compared with a 13-point lead for the governor in January (42% to 29%). Jones has similarly closed the gap with Davis; Jones now trails the governor by only five points (44% to 39%), down from 11 points in January (42% to 31%). Other Election-Related Findings • Independent voters are divided between voting in the GOP primary (23%) and the Democratic primary (27%), while half will vote in neither (32%) or haven’t made up their minds (18%). • In Southern California, nearly half of GOP primary likely voters support Riordan over Simon and Jones. • Most likely voters in the GOP primary describe themselves as somewhat (40%) or very (21%) conservative. Simon and Riordan are virtually tied among voters who describe themselves as very conservative. • GOP primary likely voters are most likely to describe Riordan as middle-of-the-road (26%) or somewhat conservative (25%), while many remain unclear about the political orientations of Jones (59%) and Simon (48%). • People who recall having seen more TV advertisements by Davis support Riordan over Davis by a larger margin (51% to 36%) than among people who recall mostly Riordan ads (46% to 43%). • Governor Davis’ approval ratings among likely voters (44%) are unchanged from January (46%) and are well below those of President Bush (71%), Senator Dianne Feinstein (58%), and Senator Barbara Boxer (53%). • 59 percent of likely voters oppose Proposition 45 – the initiative that would let local voters petition to seek an extension of term limits for their incumbent legislators – with two in three saying that current term limits give state legislators the right amount of time in office. -v- Press Release “Californians’ concerns about a host of problems – including schools, electricity, the economy, the budget deficit, and terrorism – have sparked a great deal of interest in the gubernatorial election, and a fairly open-minded attitude toward the candidates,” says survey director Mark Baldassare. “A year ago, no one would have expected that Governor Davis would be in a close race for reelection, but much has changed in the public’s priorities and this has created a new political landscape.” What California Voters Think About Hot-Button Issues Abortion: 69 percent of adults, and 72 percent of likely voters, believe the government should not interfere with a woman’s access to abortion. Although that percentage rises to 82 percent for Democrats and 85 percent among independent likely voters, even a majority (54%) of Republican likely voters holds that view. The environment: 59 percent of adults, and 62 percent of likely voters, think it is worth passing more rigorous environmental laws and regulations, even if there is a downside for jobs and the economy. Democrats (76%) and independent voters (70%) are much more likely than Republicans (42%) to place the environment above economic issues. Gay rights: 54 percent of adults, and 56 percent of likely voters, think that society has not gone far enough in ending discrimination against homosexuals. There are strong partisan differences: Democrats (73%) and independent voters (58%) are much more likely than Republicans (34%) to want to do more for gay rights. Public services for illegal immigrants: Despite strong support eight years ago for Proposition 187 – the initiative that denied public services to illegal immigrants – a majority of all California adults (53%), and 48 percent of likely voters, say they favor providing government services such as health care and education to illegal immigrants and their children. Latinos (73%) are much more likely than non-Hispanic whites (44%) to want to provide services for illegal immigrants. Gun control: 53 percent of all adults, and 56 percent of likely voters, want stricter enforcement of current laws but do not want passage of new gun laws. Smaller or bigger government: Californians are split on whether they want a smaller government with fewer services (48%) or a bigger government with more services (47%). Fifty-four percent of likely voters prefer to have a smaller government with fewer services. Democrats (35%) are much less likely than independent voters (58%) and Republicans (75%) to favor a smaller government. The Three E's: Education, Energy, and Economy Still Dominate Voters' Minds Californians are most interested in hearing the candidates for governor talk about schools (19%), followed by electricity, and the economy (each 12%). Residents do not appear to count the state’s looming $12 billion budget deficit among their top priorities (3%). Likewise, terrorism (2%) barely registers with voters as the “most important issue.” Fewer than half of Californians express satisfaction with the state’s major efforts to improve public education in the past few years, including school safety (48%), class size reduction (47%), school accountability for test scores (38%), teacher quality (37%), school facilities (37%), and school spending (28%). However, those with children in the public schools express considerably more satisfaction than those without children at home. When asked what is most in need of improvement in California schools, residents name teachers (33%), followed by classroom overcrowding (13%), and curriculum (10%). Most Californians (79%) believe that the cost, supply, and demand for electricity is either a big problem or somewhat of a problem. That pessimism reaches into the future: Only 36 percent of - vi - Press Release residents are confident that the state’s electricity supply will be adequate over the next five years, while a majority (57%) says it will be at least somewhat inadequate. There is little question about how Californians feel about de-regulation – they don’t like it. Seventy-three percent of adults favor re-regulating the power industry, while only 23 percent would like to see further de-regulation. A majority of Californians (53%) opposes new offshore drilling along the California coast, and a sizable majority (69%) favors developing more renewable sources of energy, such as wind and solar power. State residents are split, however, on whether the energy crunch is best handled by building more power plants (46%) or by encouraging energy conservation (48%). Californians Not Brimming Over With Optimism, But Still Looking Ahead There is an almost even split between residents who expect good economic times for the state in the next 12 months (46%) and those who see gray skies on California’s horizon (47%). Despite that divergence, a majority of Californians (56%) believes the state is generally headed in the right direction. As for views of their region, half think they are in a recession (55%), though few describe this as a serious downturn (12%). Residents in the San Francisco Bay area are the most optimistic about their region’s economic future – 77 percent say they expect economic conditions to be better five years from now, compared to 59% of the residents in Los Angeles and 62% or the residents in the Central Valley. About the Survey The purpose of the PPIC Statewide Survey is to develop an in-depth profile of the social, economic, and political forces affecting California elections and public policy preferences. PPIC will conduct large-scale public opinion surveys on a regular basis leading up to the November 2002 election. Findings of the current survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,056 California adult residents interviewed from February 4 to February 14, 2002. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish. The sampling error for the total sample is +/- 2%. The sampling error for the 1,461 registered voters is +/- 2.5%, for the 937 likely voters +/- 3.5%, and for the 382 GOP primary likely voters +/- 5%. For more information on survey methodology, see page 23. Dr. Mark Baldassare is a senior fellow at PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder and director of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has conducted since 1998. PPIC is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to objective, nonpartisan research on economic, social, and political issues that affect Californians. The Institute was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. David W. Lyon is President and CEO of PPIC. This report will appear on PPIC’s website (www. ppic.org) on February 21. ### (see graphics next page) ### - vii - If the Republican primary election for governor were held today and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? Riordan Simon Jones Other/Don't know 26% 9% 24% 41% Illegal immigrants and their children should be … provided public services denied public services don't know 4% 43% 53% Government should … 80 69% 60 40 28% 20 0 pass more laws to restrict availability of abortion not interfere with woman's access to abortion 3% Don't know If these were the candidates in the November 2002 governor’s election, would you vote for … Riordan Davis Other/Don't know 14% 40% 46% In the past month, have you seen any television advertisements by the candidates for governor? Yes, Riordan Yes, Davis Yes, other No 25% 33% 10% 32% Should California policymakers re-regulate or further de-regulate the power industry? Re-regulate De-regulate Don't know 23% 4% 73% California 2002 Elections GOP Gubernatorial Primary With the March 5th primary race in the homestretch, Richard Riordan remains far ahead, but Bill Simon is gaining ground, and Bill Jones has currently slipped to third position. Among likely GOP primary voters, four in 10 support Richard Riordan, one in four favors Bill Simon, and one in 10 supports Bill Jones. Simon is the candidate with the most momentum: In one month, his support has increased from 4 percent to 24 percent. This increase has come as the pool of undecided GOP primary voters has shrunk from 42 percent to 26 percent. Among likely voters in the GOP primary, Riordan leads Simon and Jones among men and women and across all age, education, and income categories. Riordan’s support is stronger in Southern California, where nearly half support him, than in Northern California, where he gets the support of one in three. Among moderate and somewhat conservative GOP primary likely voters, Riordan is ahead of the other candidates, but he is virtually tied with Simon among voters who describe themselves as very conservative. Since December, independent voters have apparently become more interested in taking advantage of updated “open primary” rules that allow them to vote in the Democratic or Republican primary if they choose, rather than on an independent ballot. Although the percentage opting for the Republican primary is the same as in December, the percentage choosing the Democratic primary has grown, so that the percentages voting for the two parties are now about even. Half of all independents say they are either undecided or plan to vote in neither the Democratic nor Republican primary. "If the March 2002 primary election for governor were held today, who would you vote for?" Richard Riordan Bill Simon Bill Jones Other/ Don't know GOP Primary (likely voters) Dec 01 Jan 02 Feb 02 37% 41% 41% 5 4 24 13 13 9 45 42 26 "Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or neither?" Republican Democrat Neither Don't know Independents (likely voters) Dec 01 Jan 02 Feb 02 23% 18% 23% 11 20 27 40 42 32 26 20 18 -1- California 2002 Elections GOP Candidates’ Images Republican primary likely voters appear to be clearer on Riordan’s politics than they are about the political orientations of Simon or Jones. When asked to place the GOP candidates for governor on a spectrum from very liberal to very conservative, 59 percent of Republican likely voters didn’t know enough to place Jones, 48 percent didn’t know enough to place Simon, but only 23 percent couldn’t place Riordan. About half of GOP primary likely voters describe Riordan as middle-of-the-road or somewhat conservative. Among those who could categorize the other candidates, 24 percent describe Jones and 36 percent describe Simon as somewhat or very conservative. Among Riordan supporters, 75 percent describe him as either middle-of-the-road (35%) or somewhat conservative (40%). In contrast, 52 percent of Simon supporters describe Riordan as either liberal (33%) or middle-of-the-road (22%). Among Simon supporters, 61 percent describe their candidate as somewhat (39%) or very conservative (22%). Among the still-uncommitted GOP likely voters, two in three have yet to form an opinion about Riordan’s ideology and eight in 10 can’t place Simon or Jones. In this context, it is informative to consider the political orientation of those GOP primary likely voters themselves. They are much more likely than other likely voters or all California adults to describe themselves as conservative. Sixty-one percent of GOP primary likely voters describe themselves as either very conservative (21%) or somewhat conservative (40%). In contrast, only 13 percent of other likely voters and 33 percent of all adults see themselves as either very conservative or somewhat conservative. "Do you consider each of these candidates in the Republican primary for governor to be very liberal, somewhat liberal, middle-of-the-road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative, or don't you know enough to say?" GOP Primary Likely Voters Richard Riordan Bill Jones Bill Simon Very liberal 5% 1 1 Somewhat liberal 12% 4 3 Middle-ofthe-road 26% 12 12 Somewhat conservative 25% 19 23 Very conservative 9% 5 13 Don't know 23% 59 48 "Do you consider yourself very liberal, somewhat liberal, middle-of-the-road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?" GOP primary likely voters Other likely voters All adults Very liberal 3% 18 10 Somewhat liberal 5% 36 22 Middle-ofthe-road 29% 32 33 Somewhat conservative 40% 10 24 Very conservative 21% 3 9 Don't know 2% 1 2 -2- California 2002 Elections Campaign Awareness: News and Advertising The gubernatorial election is generating considerable public interest at this stage: 56 percent of likely voters are very closely or fairly closely following the news about the governor’s election. The numbers in those categories are about equally high for Democrats (57%) and Republicans (58%), and only slightly lower for independent voters (50%). Even higher is the percentage of likely voters – 75 percent – who have noticed television ads by gubernatorial candidates in the past month. When asked whose advertisements they have seen the most, 32 percent say they have seen more Davis ads and 33 percent have seen more by Riordan. Democrats and Republicans are equally likely to recall both the Davis and Riordan advertisements, while independent voters are more likely to say they have seen mostly Davis (36%) rather than mostly Riordan (27%) commercials. Among those who have mostly seen Riordan commercials, Riordan leads Simon and Jones in the GOP primary (41% to 31% to 6%). Among those who recall seeing mostly the Davis commercials, Riordan has an even wider margin over Simon and Jones (47% to 25% to 8%). Among voters who cannot recall seeing any commercials, 8 percent favor Simon, 15 percent favor Jones, 35 percent favor Riordan, and 42 percent are still undecided. "How closely have you been following news about candidates for the 2002 governor’s election – very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely?" Very closely Fairly closely Not too closely Not at all closely All Likely Voters 13% 43 35 9 Likely Voters Democrats 14% 43 36 7 Republicans 12% 46 31 11 Other Voters 11% 39 39 11 "In the past month have you seen any television advertisements by the candidates for governor (if yes: In the past month, whose ads have you seen the most)?" Yes, Davis Yes, Riordan Yes, Simon Yes, other No All Likely Voters 32% 33 3 7 25 Likely Voters Democrats 29% 34 2 8 27 Republicans 33% 34 5 4 24 Other Voters 36% 27 3 8 26 - 3 - February 2002 California 2002 Elections Potential November Match-ups In the December and January statewide surveys, Riordan and Davis were in a close race, while Davis was well ahead of Simon and Jones. Riordan and Davis are still close, with Riordan ahead by 46 percent to 40 percent. However, the distance has narrowed between Davis and Simon (44% to 40%) and Davis and Jones (44% to 39%). Davis’ paid advertising does not seem to be increasing voter support for him at this early stage. Among voters who recall seeing mostly Davis advertisements, Riordan actually leads Davis by a wider margin (51% to 36%) than he does among those who recall mostly Riordan advertisements (46% to 43%). Moreover, among voters who saw mostly Davis ads, it is a virtual tie between Simon and Davis (43% to 41%) and Jones and Davis (42% to 39%). Riordan has stronger support among GOP likely voters than Davis does among Democratic likely voters, and Riordan is split with Davis among independent likely voters. Riordan is ahead of Davis in every major region except the San Francisco Bay area. Latinos favor Davis over Riordan (50% to 35%), but non-Hispanic whites support Riordan over Davis (49% to 37%). Men favor Riordan over Davis (53% to 34%), but it’s a draw among women. In Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay area, Davis is ahead of Simon and Jones, but they are both ahead of him in the rest of the state. Women support Davis, but men are split between Davis and either Jones or Simon. Latinos favor Davis by a big margin, while non-Hispanic whites split their support between Davis and either Simon or Jones. Independent voters prefer Davis to Simon or Jones, but in both potential match-ups, one in four remains undecided. "If these were the candidates in the November 2002 governor's election, would you vote for …" (1) (2) (3) Likely Voters Likely Voters Likely Voters Gray Davis 40% Gray Davis 44% Gray Davis 44% Richard Riordan Other/Don't know 46 Bill Jones 39 Bill Simon 14 Other/Don't know 17 Other/Don't know 40 16 Likely Voters Gray Davis (1) Richard Riordan Other/Don't know Gray Davis (2) Bill Jones Other/Don't know Gray Davis (3) Bill Simon Other/Don't know Dem 67% 17 16 74 10 16 73 12 15 Party Rep 8% 81 11 10 76 14 11 76 13 Other Voters 42% 41 17 43 31 26 44 31 25 Central Valley 35% 50 15 39 45 16 38 47 15 Region SF Bay Area 53% 30 17 54 28 18 54 30 16 Los Angeles 40% 47 13 49 32 19 50 33 17 Other Southern California 31% 56 13 34 50 16 33 53 14 Latino 50% 35 15 61 27 12 61 30 9 -4- California 2002 Elections Governor’s Ratings in Perspective The difficulties Governor Davis faces in his reelection bid are a reflection of his low approval ratings, especially among likely voters. His job approval rating is 51 percent among all California adults, 48 percent among registered voters, and 44 percent among likely voters. His ratings are particularly low relative to the ratings of federal elected officials, even those of fellow Democrats. Seven in ten likely voters approve of the job that George W. Bush is doing as president; six in 10 approve of U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein’s job performance; and more than half say they approve of the job U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer is doing. Bush enjoys high approval ratings – now in evidence in all four PPIC statewide surveys following September 11th – because he has strong support from likely voters inside and outside of the GOP. Feinstein and Boxer have very strong approval ratings among Democrats and majority support from independent voters, which counters their low approval ratings among GOP voters. In contrast, Davis has weaker support than Feinstein and Boxer among Democrats and among independent voters. Solid majorities of voters in all regions of the state and across demographic groups approve of the job that Bush is doing in office. In fact, only those voters who described themselves as very liberal disapprove of Bush more than they approve of him. In contrast, among likely voters, Davis has less than majority approval in all regions of the state, and among both men and women. Riordan seems to receive a boost from Bush’s high standing: He leads Davis by a two-to-one margin among those voters who approve of President Bush’s performance in office. "Do you approve or disapprove of the way that …" Likely Voters Gray Davis is handling his job as governor? George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Dianne Feinstein is handling her job as a U.S. senator? Barbara Boxer is handling her job as a U.S. senator? Approve 44% 71 58 53 Disapprove 53% 27 31 35 Don’t Know 3% 2 11 12 Likely Voters Percent Approve (%) Gray Davis is handling his job as governor? George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Dianne Feinstein is handling her job as a U.S. senator? Barbara Boxer is handling her job as a U.S. senator? Democrats 63% 54 77 79 Republicans 22% 95 37 21 Other Voters 44% 63 58 56 - 5 - February 2002 California 2002 Elections Proposition 45 Proposition 45 is the citizens’ initiative that would allow local voters to petition to extend their incumbent legislators’ time in office beyond the current term limits. It is opposed by 59 percent of likely voters. There has been no change in support since the last survey, which was the first time we included the fiscal impacts language (then recently approved) that will appear on the March 5th ballot. A majority of voters is opposed to Proposition 45 in every region of the state and in all age, education, income, gender, and racial and ethnic groups. A majority in all partisan groups would also vote no on Proposition 45, though Democrats are the least opposed. The weak support that Proposition 45 currently receives is consistent with the responses to a follow-up question on term limits: Only one in four voters feels that current term limits give state legislators too little time in office. Two in three voters think that current term limits provide the right amount of time in legislative office, and this group opposes Proposition 45 by a three-to-one margin. "Proposition 45 on the March 2002 ballot–the 'Legislative Term Limits, Local Voter Petitions' initiative–allows voters to submit petition signatures to permit their incumbent legislator to run for re-election and serve a maximum of four years beyond the terms provided for in the constitution if a majority of voters approves. The fiscal impact includes unknown county costs, potentially up to several hundreds of thousands of dollars biennially statewide, and little or no cost to track the eligibility of re-election candidates. If an election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 45?" Likely Voters Dec 01* Jan 02 Feb 02 Yes 46% 31% 28% No Don't know 45 61 59 9 8 13 *At the time of the December survey, fiscal impacts were officially described as "unknown, probably minor." Yes No Don't know Dem 33% 52 15 Party Rep 22% 65 13 Other Voters 28% 63 9 Likely Voters Region Central Valley 23% 64 13 SF Bay Area 35% 54 11 Los Angeles 28% 60 12 Other Southern California 26% 58 16 Latino 26% 59 15 "Legislative term limits now allow members of the state assembly to serve up to three two-year terms and members of the state senate to serve up to two four-year terms. Do you think the current term limits give state legislators too little, too much, or the right amount of time in office?" Too little Too much Right amount Don't know Likely Voters 24% 7 66 3 -6- Political Profiles Abortion Californians remain strongly pro-choice on abortion. Seven in ten adults, registered adults, and likely voters believe the government should not interfere with a woman’s access to abortion. In the January 2000 statewide survey, a similar 71 percent said the government should not interfere with a woman’s access to abortion. When this question was asked in a 1999 national survey by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, 65 percent of those surveyed expressed pro-choice opinions. Democratic likely voters (82%) and likely voters who are not affiliated with a major party (85%) are strongly pro-choice, but even a majority of California Republican voters (54%) agrees that the government should not interfere with a woman’s access to abortion. Although Latino likely voters are often considered conservative on moral issues, our survey indicates no difference between their views and those of non-Hispanic white likely voters, with 27 percent in each group favoring more government restrictions. Only among all California adults are Latinos more likely than non-Hispanic whites to favor increasing government restrictions (37% to 25%). Likely voters from the San Francisco Bay area (81%) are more pro-choice than elsewhere in the state, but there are no other demographic differences among likely voters on the abortion issue, including between men and women. Among all adults, there is a greater tendency for wealthier and more highly educated Californians to be pro-choice. "Does the first statement or the second come closer to your views ..." All Adults Government should pass more laws that restrict the availability of abortion Government should not interfere with a woman's access to abortion Don't know 28% 69 3 Registered Voters 26% 71 3 Likely Voters Government should pass more laws that restrict abortions Government should not interfere with a woman's access to abortion Don't know All Likely Voters Democrats Republicans 26% 16% 44% 72 82 22 54 2 Other Voters 14% 85 1 Latino NonHispanic White 27% 27% 72 71 12 -7- Political Profiles Environmental Protection Despite an economic downturn – which is supposed to dampen support for “quality of life” issues – Californians continue to be highly committed to environmental protection: 59 percent believe that stricter environmental laws and regulations are worth the cost, which falls between the 57 percent recorded in June 2000 and the 64 percent in January 2000. We found no differences in the environmental stance of likely voters, registered adults, and all adults. Nationally, the Pew Center for the People and the Press asked the same question in August 2000 and found that a similar 61 percent believe stricter environmental laws are worth the cost. There are, however, significant partisan differences among likely voters: Three in four Democrats and seven in 10 independent voters favor environmental laws, while fewer than half of the Republicans we surveyed favor stricter laws at the expense of the economy. Latinos are similar to Democrats and independents on this issue, with 71 percent supporting regulation. Support among non-Hispanic whites is lower, but still strong (61%). A majority of voters in all demographic groups supports stricter environmental laws, but the majority is largest among the young (73%), the college educated (68%), and those living in Los Angeles (65%) or the San Francisco Bay area (75%). Interestingly, those who expect bad economic times in the next twelve months are no more likely to feel environmental laws cost too many jobs than are those who expect good economic times. "Does the first statement or the second come closer to your views …" All Adults Stricter environmental laws and regulations cost too many jobs and hurt the economy Stricter environmental laws and regulations are worth the cost Don't know 36% 59 5 Registered Voters 36% 60 4 Stricter environmental laws and regulations cost too many jobs and hurt the economy Stricter environmental laws and regulations are worth the cost Don't know All Likely Voters Democrats Likely Voters Republicans Other Voters Latino NonHispanic White 35% 21% 55% 27% 24% 36% 62 76 33 42 70 71 61 3 353 -8- Political Profiles Gay Rights A majority of Californians (54%) believes that we have not gone far enough in ending discrimination against homosexuals, while 40 percent believe that we have gone too far. There are no significant differences between registered voters, likely voters, and all adults on this issue. However, we found large partisan differences among likely voters: Most Democrats (73%) believe there is still too much discrimination, compared to nearly six in 10 independent voters, and one in three Republicans. Latino and non-Hispanic white voters are equally likely (56%) to believe that more can be done to end discrimination. Voter support for increasing the social acceptance of homosexuals is higher among 18 to 34 year-olds than others (69% to 52%) and rises with education. Women (61%) are more likely than men (50%) to believe that we have not gone far enough to end discrimination. There are also significant regional differences among likely voters: The belief that more needs to be done to end discrimination is much more common in the San Francisco Bay area (68%) and Los Angeles (63%) than in the Central Valley (46%) or the rest of Southern California (45%). "Does the first statement or the second come closer to your views …" We have gone too far in accepting homosexuality in our society We have not gone far enough in ending discrimination against homosexuals in our society Don't know All Adults 40% 54 6 Registered Voters 40% 54 6 We have gone too far in accepting homosexuality in our society We have not gone far enough in ending discrimination against homosexuals in our society Don't know All Likely Voters 39% 56 5 Democrats 23% 73 4 Likely Voters Republicans Other Voters 61% 33% 34 58 59 Latino 41% NonHispanic White 38% 56 56 36 - 9 - February 2002 Political Profiles Public Services for Illegal Immigrants California adults favor providing (53%) rather than denying (43%) government services such as education and health care to illegal immigrants. While there are no time trends or national responses available for comparison, it is worth noting that California voters passed an initiative in 1994 – Proposition 187 – that denied public services to illegal immigrants by a wide margin (59% to 41%). Among all registered voters and among likely voters, opinion about providing or denying public services to illegal immigrants is divided. However, Democratic likely voters (59%) and independent likely voters (50%) are much more likely than Republican likely voters (33%) to think that public services should be provided to illegal immigrants. Another major difference in public opinion is that 73 percent of Latino likely voters want to provide services and 53 percent of non-Hispanic white likely voters want to deny them. This difference in policy preferences is about the same for all adults and registered voters. Among likely voters, those in the areas of Southern California outside of Los Angeles (58%) and the Central Valley (53%) are the most opposed to providing services, while those in the San Francisco Bay area (58%) and Los Angeles (50%) are the most in favor. There are few other demographic differences for likely voters, but among all adults, opposition to services increases with age and income. Non-citizens (85%) are also much more likely to favor providing services to illegal immigrants than are naturalized (66%) or native (48%) citizens. "Does the first statement or the second come closer to your views …" Illegal immigrants and their children should be provided public services such as education and health care Illegal immigrants and their children should be denied public services, such as education and health care Don't know All Adults 53% Registered Voters 49% 43 47 44 Illegal immigrants and their children should be provided public services such as education and health care Illegal immigrants and their children should be denied public services, such as education and health care Don't know All Likely Voters Democrats Likely Voters Republicans Other Voters 48% 59% 33% 50% 49 38 33 64 45 35 Latino NonHispanic White 73% 44% 26 53 13 - 10 - Political Profiles Gun Control Californians’ opinions on gun control have not changed much over time. Today, 53 percent of Californians favor stricter enforcement of existing gun laws, rather than imposing new restrictions. In September 2000, a similar 56 percent expressed this policy preference. Whether we consider all adults (53%), registered voters (55%), or likely voters (56%), a majority favors simply doing more with the laws already in place. Among likely voters, Republicans (70%) are the most strongly opposed to new gun control laws, while fewer independent voters (58%) and Democrats (42%) are opposed to new restrictions. Latinos are about as likely as non-Hispanic whites to favor stronger enforcement of current laws rather than creating new ones (53% to 57%). Voters in the Central Valley (74%) and in the areas of Southern California outside of Los Angeles (62%) are more opposed to new gun regulations than those in the San Francisco Bay area or Los Angeles County (45% each). We did find that voter support for new gun laws rises with education. "In terms of gun laws in the United States, which of the following would you prefer …" Enforce current gun laws more strictly and not pass new gun laws Pass new gun laws in addition to enforcing current laws more strictly Don't know All Adults 53% 44 3 Registered Voters 55% 42 3 Enforce current gun laws more strictly and not pass new gun laws Pass new gun laws in addition to enforcing current laws more strictly Don't know All Likely Voters 56% Democrats 42% Likely Voters Republicans Other Voters 70% 58% 43 56 12 30 39 03 Latino 53% NonHispanic White 57% 46 42 11 - 11 - February 2002 Political Profiles Smaller Versus Larger Government California adults are split on whether they prefer a smaller government with fewer services (48%) or a larger government with more services (47%). Support for a smaller government is down from October 2000 (54%), but remains slightly stronger among registered voters (52%) and likely voters (55%). At the national level, 54 percent of all adults support a smaller government with fewer services, according to a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll. The proper size and role of government is a traditional point of distinction between the two major parties, so it is perhaps not surprising to find that a majority of Democratic likely voters (58%) favors larger government and an overwhelming majority of Republican likely voters (75%) favors smaller government. However, even 35 percent of Democratic likely voters would prefer less government. Independent likely voters fall between Democrats and Republicans on this issue. Six in ten Latino likely voters want a larger government with more services. This contrasts with the six in ten non-Hispanic white likely voters who say they want less government. Regardless of whether the opinions of all adults, registered voters, or likely voters are considered, support for smaller government increases strongly with age and income, and a larger percentage of men than women want smaller government. Residents in Los Angeles are more likely than those living in other areas of the state to prefer a larger government and more public services. "If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller government with fewer services or a bigger government providing more services?" Smaller government, fewer services Bigger government, more services Don't know All Adults 48% 47 5 Registered Voters 52% 42 6 Smaller government, fewer services Bigger government, more services Don't know All Likely Voters 55% 40 5 Likely Voters Democrats 35% 58 7 Republicans 75% 21 4 Other Voters 58% 37 5 Latino 32% 61 7 NonHispanic White 61% 34 5 - 12 - California Policy Issues Most Important Issue Californians want the candidates for governor to talk about the three issues that have held the attention of state residents since last fall. Residents place public schools (19%) at the top of the list, followed by electricity prices and deregulation (12%) and jobs and the economy (12%). No other issue is mentioned by more than one in 10 residents. So far, Californians are not considering the looming $12 billion state budget deficit as a top priority for gubernatorial debate. Terrorism and security issues also barely make it onto the radar screen (2%). Republicans are more likely than others to focus on the electricity issue, while Democrats are more inclined to name schools. Women are more likely than men to say that schools are the most important issue (24% to 14%). "Californians will go to the polls to elect a governor in 2002. Which one issue would you like to hear the candidates talk about during the governor's election this year?" Party Registration Schools, education Electricity cost, supply, demand Jobs, the economy, unemployment Immigration, illegal immigration Taxes, cutting taxes Environment, pollution Crime, gangs Health care, HMO reform State budget, state deficit Growth, sprawl, overpopulation Terrorism, security, bio-terrorism, anthrax Poverty, the poor, the homeless, welfare Traffic and transportation Housing costs, housing availability Guns, gun control Drugs Race relations, racial and ethnic issues State government, governor, legislature Other Don’t know All Adults 19% 12 12 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 7 14 Democrat 24% 11 14 1 5 5 3 5 3 2 1 2 1 2 1 0 1 1 6 12 Republican 18% 18 11 7 7 2 3 1 5 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 2 8 11 Other Voters 17% 10 11 5 4 6 4 4 4 3 2 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 8 10 Not Registered to Vote 15% 7 10 8 4 3 4 3 1 2 5 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 6 21 Likely Voters 21% 15 12 4 6 5 2 3 5 1 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 2 8 8 - 13 - California Policy Issues Perceptions of California’s Public Schools To probe the public’s concerns about schools further, we asked residents to evaluate six of the major efforts under way to improve the state’s public education system. People are far from content with progress to date. Only 28 percent are satisfied with school spending, 37 percent with the repair and construction of school facilities, 37 percent with teacher quality, and 38 percent with school accountability for student test scores. State opinion is more divided on efforts to improve school safety (48% satisfied to 45% dissatisfied) and class size reduction (47% to 45%). Still, fewer than half of the state’s residents are satisfied with any of these major efforts under way to improve the public schools. Californians in households with public school children – in most cases, the caretakers are parents – are more satisfied with each of the educational improvement measures listed than are residents who do not have children at home: school spending (38% to 25%), teacher quality (47% to 33%), testing accountability (49% to 34%), facilities (50% to 32%), safety (56% to 47%), and class size reduction (56% to 43%). However, the primary users of the public school system express majority support for the efforts being made in only three of these six educational improvement measures – safety, facility maintenance, and class-size reduction. Dissatisfaction with efforts to improve California’s schools spans political affiliations, socioeconomic groups, and regions of the state. However, there are some important differences. For example, Latinos are more satisfied than non-Hispanic whites with all of the measures but one: 52 percent of Latinos are dissatisfied with efforts aimed at improving school safety, compared to 40 percent of non-Hispanic whites. Californians with a college degree also differ from those with a high school diploma or less on these issues: More-educated Californians tend to be more dissatisfied with spending (63% to 51%), facility maintenance (61% to 47%), teacher quality (62% to 45%), and school accountability for test scores (55% to 42%). Older residents tend to be more critical than those who are younger. Across regions of the state, Central Valley residents are the most likely to be satisfied with school safety, while San Francisco Bay area residents are the most likely to be dissatisfied with facilities and teacher quality. One partisan difference also emerges: Democrats are less satisfied with the repair and construction of school facilities than Republicans. Finally, compared to those less likely to vote, likely voters are more dissatisfied with efforts in school spending, facility maintenance, teacher quality, and testing accountability. When asked to specify the one thing that most needs improvement in California’s public schools, state residents focus primarily on teachers (33%), classroom overcrowding (13%), and curriculum (10%). School safety (5%), testing (4%), state funding (4%), facilities (4%), and parental involvement (4%) are mentioned less. The most striking demographic difference mirrors the responses provided in the satisfaction data discussed above: Among Latinos, the second most important issue in public schools is safety, crime, violence, and gangs (16%). This issue registers a distant fourth on the list of issues most often highlighted by non-Hispanic whites (5%). While school reform is important to California residents, from where do they expect this reform to come? When asked who has primary responsibility for improving education in the California public schools, a large plurality of Californians says that primary responsibility lies with local school districts (40%), followed by the state superintendent of schools (20%), the state legislature (12%), the federal government (11%), and the governor’s office (11%). - 14 - California Policy Issues "Are you satisfied or not satisfied with the way each of these efforts to improve education in California's public schools is being handled ..." How about school safety? All Adults Parents of Public School Children Satisfied Not satisfied Don't know How about reducing class sizes? Satisfied Not satisfied Don't know How about school accountability for student test scores? Satisfied Not satisfied Don't know How about teacher quality, including recruitment and training? Satisfied Not satisfied Don't know How about repair and construction of school facilities? Satisfied Not satisfied Don't know How about school spending? Satisfied Not satisfied Don't know 48% 45 7 47% 45 8 38% 52 10 37% 56 7 37% 56 7 28% 60 12 56% 42 2 56% 41 3 49% 46 5 47% 51 2 50% 48 2 38% 53 9 Likely voters 51% 42 7 47% 46 7 32% 60 8 32% 61 7 30% 64 6 23% 67 10 - 15 - February 2002 California Policy Issues Electricity Cost, Supply, and Demand As we saw in the open-ended question at the beginning of this section, Californians rank electricity as one of the top three problems facing the state. When we asked residents more specifically how much of a problem they think it is, 45 percent said it is a big problem, and 34 percent said it is somewhat of a problem. Although nearly half of the state’s residents still think that electricity is a serious problem, this is a significantly lower percentage than during the first half of last year, when the electricity crisis was at its peak: In January 2001, 74 percent of the state’s residents said that electricity was a big problem in California, and the percentages who thought it was a serious problem remained high in our spring and summer surveys – 82 percent in May and 78 percent in July. A majority of residents believes that the electricity supply will be inadequate to meet the needs of California over the next five years: One in three residents feels the supply will be somewhat inadequate, and one in four believes that it will be very inadequate. Assessments of current and future electricity problems differ by political affiliation. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to characterize the current cost, supply, and demand for electricity as a big problem (51% to 42%). Similarly, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to believe that the supply of electricity over the next five years will be very inadequate. Independent voters are similar to Democrats in their assessment of the current situation and similar to Republicans in thinking about future supplies. Latinos are similar to non-Hispanic whites in assessing today’s electricity problems but are more optimistic about the future: 43 percent of Latinos think that the supply of electricity over the next five years will be adequate, compared to 33 percent of non-Hispanic whites. "How much of a problem is the cost, supply, and demand for electricity in California today?" Big problem Somewhat of a problem Not much of a problem Don’t know Jan 01 74% 18 7 1 May 01 82% 13 5 0 July 01 78% 16 5 1 Dec 01 48% 33 18 1 Feb 02 45% 34 20 1 "Do you think that the electricity supply that is available in California today will be adequate or inadequate for the state’s needs through the next five years?" Adequate Somewhat inadequate Very inadequate Don’t know All Adults 36% 33 24 7 Democrat 39% 33 20 8 Party Registration Republican 32% 35 28 5 Other Voters 32% 32 30 6 Not Registered to Vote 39% 32 22 7 Latino 43% 28 21 8 - 16 - California Policy Issues Although Californians continue to think that the cost and supply of electricity is a problem and that the supply over the next five years will be inadequate, they are split over whether policymakers should focus on building more power plants (46%) or encouraging energy conservation (48%). Although overall opinion is divided, there are significant partisan and regional differences in policy preferences. A higher percentage of Democrats than Republicans supports energy conservation (57% to 38%), and San Francisco Bay area residents are more likely than those in the rest of the state to prefer conservation programs to additional power plants. As a whole, Californians feel strongly about how one aspect of the energy problem in their state should be handled: Three out of four want the power industry re-regulated. Although there is strong support for re-regulation across all political affiliations, we do see a partisan gap, with Republicans (32%) more likely than Democrats (17%) to support further de-regulation. "Should California policymakers focus on building more power plants or encouraging energy conservation?" Build more power plants Encourage conservation Don’t know/other All Adults 46% 48 6 Democrat 38% 57 5 Party Registration Republican 58% 38 4 Other Voters 44% 48 8 Not Registered to Vote 45% 49 6 Likely Voters 46% 49 5 "Should California policymakers re-regulate the power industry to control prices or further de-regulate the power industry and leave prices up to market conditions?" Re-regulate the power industry Further de-regulate Don’t know/other All Adults 73% 23 4 Democrat 78% 17 5 Party Registration Republican 64% 32 4 Other Voters 75% 22 3 Not Registered to Vote Likely Voters 74% 73% 22 24 43 - 17 - February 2002 California Policy Issues Energy Sources Another major front in California’s effort to provide adequate energy supplies for the state’s residents is the search for and development of new sources of energy. In this survey, we asked Californians about offshore oil drilling, renewable energy, and whether recent international events justify new oil exploration in federally protected lands such as the Alaskan wilderness. Californians are opposed to expanded drilling off their coast and in federally protected lands. Fifty-three percent oppose new offshore drilling and, responding to another question, 67 percent say they believe that protected areas should remain off limits to new exploration, even considering America’s war on terrorism and the country’s dependence on oil from Middle East nations. In contrast, nearly seven in 10 favor the development of more renewable energy sources such as geothermal, wind, and solar, even if it means higher electricity prices. Support is high across all demographic groups. There are, however, some differences across political groups. Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to oppose offshore oil drilling (66% to 36%) and oil exploration in federally protected lands (81% to 44%), and somewhat more likely to support the development of renewable energy sources (75% to 67%). Independents and other voters are closer to Democrats than Republicans in their preferences on these issues. Likely voters are more inclined than Californians as a whole to open public lands such as the Alaskan wilderness to oil exploration (35% to 23%). Additionally, there is a significant difference between inland and coastal residents: Central Valley residents (51%) are more likely than those in San Francisco Bay area (30%) and Los Angeles (41%) to support new offshore oil drilling. "To address California's energy needs, would you favor or oppose allowing new drilling for oil and natural gas off the California coast?" Favor Oppose Don’t know All Adults 42% 53 5 Democrat 30% 66 4 Party Registration Republican 60% 36 4 Other Voters 36% 58 6 Not Registered to Vote 44% 48 8 Likely Voters 41% 56 3 "To address California's energy needs, would you favor or oppose developing more renewable energy sources, such as geothermal, wind, and solar, even if it meant higher electricity prices?" Favor Oppose Don’t know All Adults 69% 27 4 Democrat 75% 22 3 Party Registration Republican 67% 30 3 Other Voters 79% 19 2 Not Registered to Vote 61% 33 6 Likely Voters 78% 20 2 - 18 - Social and Economic Trends Overall Outlook Residents are evenly divided today on whether they expect good times or bad times for the state’s economy over the next 12 months. Forty-six percent of Californians say they expect good economic times, which is nine percentage points higher than last December (37%). Men (52%) continue to be more optimistic than women (40%) about the state’s economy. Republicans (50%) and other voters (48%) are more likely than Democrats (42%) to say that they expect good financial times during the next 12 months. Otherwise, there are no significant differences in perceptions of the economic outlook across age, income, education, or regions of the state. Fifty-six percent of Californians believe the state is headed in the right direction, while 36 percent think it is headed in the wrong direction. There has also been a slight but steady increase in the percentage of people that says the state is headed in the wrong direction in recent months: a seven point increase since November 2001, which was our first survey after September 11th and which showed a dramatic increase in optimism. Latinos (66%) continue to be more optimistic than non-Hispanic whites (53%) about the state’s direction, as are younger residents. Democrats (60%) and other voters (55%) are more likely than Republicans (47%) to say the state is headed in the right direction. There are no significant regional, gender, or income differences in opinion. "Do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?" All Adults Sep 99 Dec 99 Feb 00 Aug 00 Jan 01 May 01 Jul 01 Nov 01 Dec 01 Jan 02 Feb 02 Good times 72% 76% 78% 72% 51% 38% 41% 32% 37% 48% 46% Bad times 23 19 15 21 38 56 50 59 56 46 47 Don't know 5 5 7 7 11 6 99 7 6 7 "Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?" Right direction Wrong direction Don't know Dec 98 63% 28 9 Sep 99 61% 34 5 Dec 99 62% 31 7 Feb 00 65% 27 8 All Adults Aug 00 62% Jan 01 62% May 01 44% 30 29 48 898 Jul 01 44% 47 9 Nov 01 60% 29 11 Dec 01 58% 33 9 Jan 02 59% 32 9 Feb 02 56% 36 8 - 19 - Social and Economic Trends Regional Economies More than half (55%) of Californians believe that their region is in an economic recession, though only 12 percent believe that their region is in a serious recession. As another sign that the current economic downturn is perceived to be shallow and short in duration, Californians are more likely to expect their region to experience good economic times (54%) than bad economic times (41%) during the next 12 months. A higher percentage of San Francisco Bay area residents, compared to those who live elsewhere in the state, perceives their region to be in a recession. One out of five San Francisco Bay area residents says that their region is in a serious recession, and more than half describe their regional recession as moderate or mild. Statewide, Latinos and non-Hispanic whites have similar opinions about the state of their regional economies. Residents between the ages of 35 to 54 and those with higher educational levels are more likely than others to say that their region is experiencing an economic slowdown. No differences in perceptions are evident across party, gender, or income groups. When residents were then asked about their expectations for economic conditions in their region five years from now, two in three throughout the state say they expect conditions to improve. Interestingly, the hard-hit San Francisco Bay area residents are the most likely to expect their region to be in better shape five years from now than it is today. Statewide, residents’ optimism about their region’s economic future increases with income and education. There are no significant differences across gender, age, racial and ethnic groups, or political groups. Would you say that your region is in an economic recession, or not? Yes, serious recession Yes, moderate recession Yes, mild recession No Don’t know All Adults Central Valley 12% 27 16 42 3 9% 22 16 47 6 What about five years from now? Compared to today, do you expect economic conditions in your region to get better, get worse, or stay the same? Get better Get worse Stay the same Don’t know All Adults 64% 10 20 6 Central Valley 62% 14 18 6 Region SF Bay Area Los Angeles 19% 11% 36 29 16 14 28 42 14 Region SF Bay Area Los Angeles 77% 8 12 3 59% 11 23 7 Other Southern California Latino 8% 23 18 47 4 12% 24 16 44 4 Other Southern California Latino 65% 8 22 5 60% 12 25 3 - 20 - Social and Economic Trends Enron Six in 10 Californians have very closely (20%) or fairly closely (40%) followed news about the bankruptcy of the Enron Corporation. Six in 10 residents also believe public officials made or changed policy decisions as a direct result of campaign contributions they received from Enron. Interestingly, Californians (59%) are less likely than Americans in a CBS News poll in January to believe that Enron contributions affected public policy decisions (72%). In California, nearly seven in 10 Democrats (68%), six in 10 independent voters (58%), and half of Republicans (49%) see a link between Enron’s campaign contributions and policymaking. Moreover, California residents who have been following news about Enron very closely (71%) or fairly closely (63%) are more likely than others to perceive a link between campaign contributions from Enron and public policy decisions. Many Californians (55%) support the idea of allowing individuals to invest a portion of their Social Security contributions in the stock market. However, support is almost 10 percentage points lower than it was in the August 2000 statewide survey (64%), which was conducted well before the financial losses of Enron employees in their 401K retirement plans and the stock market’s increased volatility. There has been a decrease across the board in support for investing Social Security funds in the stock market, although support has declined more among Democrats (57% to 44%) than among Republicans (71% to 64%) and independent voters (64% to 56%). Of those who have followed the news about the Enron collapse very closely, support for allowing people to invest some of their Social Security money into the stock market declines to 45 percent. Support for this proposal also declines with age, but increases with income. There are no differences between Latinos and non-Hispanic whites or across education groups. Residents of the Bay area are evenly split on this issue, while there is majority support for privatizing a portion of Social Security in every other region. "Do you think public officials made or changed policy decisions as a direct result of campaign contributions they received from the Enron energy corporation?" Yes No Don't know Party Registration All Adults 59% 22 19 Democrats 68% 15 17 Republicans 49% 34 17 Other Voters 58% 22 20 "Would you support or oppose a plan in which people who chose to do so could invest some of their Social Security contributions in the stock market?" Support Oppose Don't know Party Registration All Adults 55% 41 4 Democrats 44% 54 2 Republicans 64% 33 3 Other Voters 56% 40 4 - 21 - February 2002 Social and Economic Trends War on Terrorism Californians continue to be fixated on news about terrorism and security issues, with almost nine in 10 residents following these news stories either very closely or fairly closely. On one high-profile story regarding the war on terrorism, there is considerable agreement: Most Californians (67%) believe that John Walker Lindh, the American citizen captured in Afghanistan, consciously aligned himself with a terrorist group and took up arms against the United States. This perception increases with how closely people have been following news about terrorism and security issues and is shared across all demographic groups. However, race and ethnicity, income, and political party do influence the public’s perceptions of this war-related news story. Republicans (82%) are much more likely to believe that Lindh consciously aligned himself with a terrorist group than either Democrats (60%) or other voters (66%). Latinos are less likely than non-Hispanic whites to believe that Lindh is a conscious terrorist (58% to 72%). San Francisco Bay area residents are not any more sympathetic to Lindh, even though he is from Marin County: 65 percent of Bay area residents think that Lindh knowingly took up arms against the United States. Californians are split on the issue of whether the United States should determine its policies regarding the war on terrorism unilaterally (48%) or take into account the wishes of its allies (46%). In contrast, a national study by the Pew Research Center and the Council on Foreign Relations found in October 2001 that 59 percent of all adults thought the United States should strongly take into account the interests of its allies. In California, Republicans (59%) favor unilateral policies, while a majority of Democrats (54%) prefers policies that reflect the interests of U.S. allies. San Francisco Bay area and Los Angeles residents, along with the more educated, are the most likely to want to take into account the interests of U.S. allies. There are no differences across race, income, or gender on this issue. "Which comes closest to your views on John Walker Lindh, the American citizen captured in Afghanistan fighting for the Taliban?" Party Registration All Adults John Walker Lindh is a misguided young man who got caught up in events beyond his control 25% John Walker Lindh consciously aligned himself with a terrorist group and took up arms against the U.S. 67 Don't know 8 Democrats 30% 60 10 Republicans 14% 82 4 Other Voters 25% 66 9 "How should the U.S. determine its policy with regard to the war on terrorism?" Party Registration It should be based mostly on the national interests of the U.S. It should strongly take into account the interests of its allies Don't know All Adults 48% 46 6 Democrats 41% 54 5 Republicans 59% 37 4 Other Voters 46% 48 6 - 22 - Survey Methodology The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, with the assistance of Jon Cohen, survey research manager, and Lisa Cole and Eric McGhee, research associates. The findings of this survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,056 California adult residents interviewed from February 4 to February 14, 2002. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers, ensuring that both listed and unlisted telephone numbers were called. All telephone exchanges in California were eligible for calling. Telephone numbers in the survey sample were called up to five times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing by using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Each interview took an average of 20 minutes to complete. Interviewing was conducted in English or Spanish. Casa Hispana translated the survey into Spanish. We used recent U.S. Census and state figures to compare the demographic characteristics of the survey sample with characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the census and state figures. The survey data in this report were statistically weighted to account for any demographic differences. The sampling error for the total sample of 2,056 adults is +/- 2 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 2 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger. The sampling error for the 1,461 registered voters is +/- 2.5 percent, for the 937 likely voters +/- 3.5 percent, and for the 382 GOP primary likely voters +/- 5 percent. Sampling error is just one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. Throughout the report, we refer to four geographic regions. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “SF Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, and “Other Southern California” includes the mostly suburban regions of Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. These four regions were chosen for analysis because they are the major population centers of the state, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population; moreover, the growth of the Central Valley and “Other Southern California” regions have given them increasing political significance. We present specific results for Latinos because they account for about 28 percent of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest growing voter groups. The sample sizes for the African American and Asian subgroups are not large enough for separate statistical analysis. We contrast the opinions of Democrats and Republicans with “other” or “independent” registered voters. This third category includes those who are registered to vote as “decline to state” as well as a fewer number who say they are members of other political parties. In some cases, we compare PPIC Statewide Survey responses to responses recorded in national surveys conducted by the NBC News/Wall Street Journal (June 1999), the Pew Center for the People and the Press (August 2000), ABC News/Washington Post (January 2002), CBS News (January 2002), and the Pew Center and Council on Foreign Relations (October 2001). We used PPIC Statewide Surveys 1998-2002 to analyze trends over time in California. - 23 - - 24 - PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT FEBRUARY 4 – FEBRUARY 14, 2002 2,056 CALIFORNIA ADULT RESIDENTS; ENGLISH AND SPANISH MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 2% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE 1. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 56% right direction 36 wrong direction 8 don't know 2. Californians will go to the polls to elect a governor in 2002. Which one issue would you like to hear the candidates talk about during the governor’s election this year? (code, don’t read) 19% schools, education 12 electricity cost, supply, demand 12 jobs, the economy, unemployment 5 immigration, illegal immigration 5 taxes, cutting taxes 4 environment, pollution 3 crime, gangs 3 health care, HMO reform 3 state budget, state deficit 2 growth, sprawl, overpopulation 2 terrorism, security issues 2 poverty, the poor, the homeless, welfare 2 traffic and transportation 1 housing costs, housing availability 1 guns, gun control 1 drugs 1 race relations, racial and ethnic issues 1 state government, governor, legislature 7 other (specify) 14 don't know I would like to ask you a few questions about California’s upcoming primary election on March 5th. 3. First, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain you are registered to vote? (if yes: Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, with another party, or as an independent?) 32% yes, Democrat (skip to q.6) 26 yes, Republican (skip to q.5) 3 yes, other party (skip to q.6) 13 yes, independent (ask q.4) 26 no, not registered (skip to q.6) [Responses recorded for questions 4-15 are from likely voters only. All other responses are from all adults.] 4. (Independent likely voters only) California voters like yourself will be able to choose between voting in the Republican primary and the Democratic primary in March 2002. Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or neither? 23% Republican primary 27 Democratic primary (skip to q.6) 32 neither (skip to q.6) 18 don’t know (skip to q.6) 5. (GOP primary likely voters only) If the Republican primary election for governor were held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? (rotate names, then ask “or someone else?”) 41% Richard Riordan 24 Bill Simon 9 Bill Jones 26 other/don’t know If these were the candidates in the November 2002 governor’s election … (rotate questions 6 to 8) 6. Would you vote for … 44% Gray Davis, a Democrat 39 Bill Jones, a Republican 17 other/don’t know 7. Would you vote for … 40% Gray Davis, a Democrat 46 Richard Riordan, a Republican 14 other/don’t know 8. Would you vote for … 44% Gray Davis, a Democrat 40 Bill Simon, a Republican 16 other/don’t know 9. How closely have you been following news about candidates for the 2002 governor’s election – very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 13% very closely 43 fairly closely 35 not too closely 9 not at all closely - 25 - 10. In the past month, have you seen any television advertisements by the candidates for governor? (if yes: Whose ads have you seen the most)? 33% yes, Richard Riordan 32 yes, Gray Davis 3 yes, Bill Simon 1 yes, Bill Jones 6 yes, other answer / yes, don’t know 25 no Do you consider each of these candidates in the Republican primary for governor to be very liberal, somewhat liberal, middle-of-the-road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative, or don’t you know enough to say? (rotate questions 11 to 13) 11. How about Bill Jones? 1% very liberal 3 somewhat liberal 9 middle-of-the-road 17 somewhat conservative 8 very conservative 62 don’t know 12. How about Richard Riordan? 4% very liberal 11 somewhat liberal 21 middle-of-the-road 26 somewhat conservative 12 very conservative 26 don’t know 13. How about Bill Simon? 1% very liberal 3 somewhat liberal 11 middle-of-the-road 18 somewhat conservative 14 very conservative 53 don’t know 14. On another topic, Proposition 45 on the March 2002 ballot – the “Legislative Term Limits, Local Voter Petitions" initiative –allows voters to submit petition signatures to permit their incumbent legislator to run for re-election and serve a maximum of four years beyond the terms provided for in the constitution if a majority of voters approves. The fiscal impact includes unknown county costs and potentially up to several hundreds of thousands of dollars biennially statewide to verify voter petition signatures, and little or no state cost to track the eligibility of re-election candidates. If an election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 45? 28% yes 59 no 13 don’t know - 26 - 15. Legislative term limits now allow members of the state assembly to serve up to three two-year terms and members of the state senate to serve up to two four-year terms. Do you think the current term limits give state legislators too little, too much, or the right amount of time in office? 24% too little 7 too much 66 right amount 3 don’t know 16. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 46% good times 47 bad times 7 don't know 17. How about the economic conditions in your part of California? Do you think that during the next 12 months your region will have good times financially or bad times? 54% good times 41 bad times 5 don't know 18. Would you say that your region is in an economic recession or not? (if yes: Do you think it is in a serious, a moderate, or a mild recession?) 12% yes, serious recession 27 yes, moderate recession 16 yes, mild recession 42 no 3 don't know 19. What about five years from now? Compared to today, do you expect economic conditions in your region to get better, get worse, or stay the same? 64% get better 10 get worse 20 stay the same 6 don't know 20. Overall, do you think that your region is in better economic shape, worse economic shape, or about the same economic shape as the rest of California? 37% better shape 17 worse shape 43 about the same 3 don't know 21. On another topic, how much of a problem is the cost, supply, and demand for electricity in California today? Is it a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem? 45% big problem 34 somewhat of a problem 20 not much of a problem 1 don’t know 22. Do you think that the electricity supply that is available in California today will be adequate or inadequate for the state’s needs through the next five years? (if inadequate: Is that somewhat or very inadequate?) 36% adequate 33 somewhat inadequate 24 very inadequate 7 don’t know I am now going to read you some pairs of statements. As I read each pair, please tell me if the first statement or the second is closer to your views – even if neither statement is exactly right. (rotate questions and pairs 23 and 24) 23. California policymakers should focus on (a) building more power plants or (b) encouraging energy conservation. 46% build more power plants 48 encourage energy conservation 6 other/don’t know 24. California policymakers should (a) re-regulate the power industry to control prices or (b) further de-regulate the power industry to leave prices up to market conditions. 73% re-regulate 23 de-regulate 4 don’t know 25. To address California’s energy needs, would you favor or oppose allowing new drilling for oil and natural gas off the California coast? 42% favor 53 oppose 5 don’t know 26. To address California’s energy needs, would you favor or oppose developing more renewable energy sources, such as geothermal, wind, and solar, even if it meant higher electricity prices? 69% favor 27 oppose 4 don’t know 27. Do you think that America’s war on terrorism and dependence on oil from Mideast nations offer good reasons to allow new oil exploration in federally protected lands such as the Alaskan wilderness, or should the federal government continue to keep these areas off limits and consider other solutions? 29% good reason for new exploration 67 consider other solutions 4 don’t know 28. On another topic, people have different ideas about California’s public schools. What do you think most needs improvement in California’s kindergarten through 12th grade public schools? (code, don’t read) 33% teachers: salaries, shortage, quality 13 class size, overcrowded classrooms 10 curriculum 5 school safety, crime, violence, gangs 4 state funding, local funding 4 student testing and accountability 4 parents, parental involvement 4 building and repair of school facilities 2 English language instruction for immigrants 2 books, supplies 8 other (specify) 11 don't know Are you satisfied or not satisfied with the way each of these efforts to improve education in California’s public schools is being handled ... (rotate questions 29 to 34) 29. How about school spending? 28% satisfied 60 not satisfied 12 don’t know 30. How about school safety? 48% satisfied 45 not satisfied 7 don’t know 31. How about repair and construction of school facilities? 37% satisfied 56 not satisfied 7 don’t know 32. How about teacher quality, including recruitment and training? 37% satisfied 56 not satisfied 7 don’t know 33. How about school accountability for student test scores? 38% satisfied 52 not satisfied 10 don’t know 34. How about reducing class sizes? 47% satisfied 45 not satisfied 8 don’t know - 27 - February 2002 35. Who do you think has primary responsibility for improving education in California’s public schools: (a) the federal government, (b) the governor’s office, (c) the state superintendent of schools, (d) the state legislature, or (e) local school districts? (rotate answer categories) 40% local school districts 20 state superintendent of schools 12 state legislature 11 federal government 11 governor’s office 6 other/don’t know On another topic ... (rotate questions 36 to 39) 36. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling his job as president of the United States? 76% approve 22 disapprove 2 don’t know 37. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Gray Davis is handling his job as governor of California? 51% approve 42 disapprove 7 don’t know 38. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Dianne Feinstein is handling her job as a U.S. senator? 57% approve 25 disapprove 18 don’t know 39. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barbara Boxer is handling her job as a U.S. senator? 52% approve 27 disapprove 21 don’t know 40. On another topic, how closely have you been following news about the Enron energy corporation – very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 20% very closely 40 fairly closely 27 not too closely 13 not at all closely 41. Do you think public officials made or changed policy decisions as a direct result of campaign contributions they received from the Enron energy corporation? 59% yes 22 no 19 don’t know 42. On another topic, would you support or oppose a plan in which people who chose to do so could invest some of their Social Security contributions in the stock market? 55% support 41 oppose 4 don’t know 43. On another topic, how closely have you been following news about terrorism and security issues – very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 46% very closely 43 fairly closely 9 not too closely 2 not at all closely 44. Which comes closest to your views on John Walker Lindh, the American citizen captured in Afghanistan fighting for the Taliban: (rotate) (a) John Walker Lindh is a misguided young man who got caught up in events beyond his control, (b) John Walker Lindh consciously aligned himself with a terrorist group and took up arms against the United States. 25% misguided young man 67 conscious member of a terrorist group 8 don’t know 45. How should the United States determine its policy with regard to the war on terrorism? Should it be based mostly on the national interests of the United States, or should it strongly take into account the interests of its allies? 48% based on national interests 46 take into account interests of allies 6 don’t know I am going to read some pairs of statements. As I read each pair, please tell me if the first statement or the second is closer to your views – even if neither is exactly right. (rotate questions and pairs 46 to 49) 46. (a) The government should pass more laws that restrict the availability of abortion, or (b) The government should not interfere with a woman’s access to abortion. 28% government should pass more laws 69 government should not interfere 3 don’t know 47. (a) Stricter environmental laws and regulations cost too many jobs and hurt the economy, or (b) Stricter environmental laws and regulations are worth the cost. 36% cost too many jobs and hurt the economy 59 stricter environmental laws worth the cost 5 don’t know - 28 - 48. (a) Illegal immigrants and their children should be provided public services such as education and health care, or (b) Illegal immigrants and their children should be denied public services such as education and health care. 53% illegal immigrants provided public services 43 illegal immigrants denied public services 4 don’t know 49. (a) We have gone too far in accepting homosexuality in our society, or (b) We have not gone far enough in ending discrimination against homosexuals in our society. 40% have gone too far 54 have not gone far enough 6 don’t know 50. In terms of gun laws in the United States, which of the following would you prefer to see happen: (rotate) (a) enforce current gun laws more strictly and not pass new gun laws (b) pass new gun laws in addition to enforcing current laws more strictly. 53% enforce current laws; not pass new laws 44 pass new laws; enforce laws more strictly 3 don’t know 51. If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller government with fewer services or a bigger government providing more services? 48% smaller government, fewer services 47 bigger government, more services 5 don’t know 52. How do you get most of your news – from television, newspapers, radio, the Internet, magazines, or talking to other people? (if television: Would that be major network TV, local TV, or cable news stations such as CNN or MSNBC?) 23% newspapers 23 cable television 16 local television 12 network television 11 radio 8 Internet 4 talking to other people 1 magazines 2 other/don’t know 53. On another topic, would you consider yourself to be politically very liberal, somewhat liberal, middleof-the-road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative? 10% very liberal 22 somewhat liberal 33 middle-of-the-road 24 somewhat conservative 9 very conservative 2 don't know 54. Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics – a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 17% great deal 44 fair amount 31 only a little 8 none/don't know 55. How often would you say you vote – always, nearly always, part of the time, seldom, or never? 49% always 21 nearly always 11 part of the time 5 seldom 14 never 56. Some people who plan to vote can’t always get around to it on election day. With your own personal daily schedule in mind, are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances about 50-50, less than 50-50, or don’t you think you will vote in the California primary election on March 5th? 55% absolutely certain 15 probably 12 about 50-50 4 less than 50-50 13 will not vote 1 other/don’t know [57-65: demographic questions] - 29 - February 2002 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Advisory Committee Mary Bitterman President The James Irvine Foundation Angela Blackwell President Policy Link Paul Brest President The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Mollyann Brodie Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley Matt Fong Chairman Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation Advisory Committee William Hauck President California Business Roundtable Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Monica Lozano President and Chief Operating Officer La Opinión Donna Lucas President NCG Porter Novelli Max Neiman Director Center for Social and Behavioral Research University of California, Riverside Dan Rosenheim News Director KPIX-TV Richard Schlosberg President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Carol Stogsdill President Stogsdill Consulting Cathy Taylor Vice President and Editorial Commentary Director Orange County Register Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center - 30 -" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 09:35:22" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(8) "s_202mbs" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:35:22" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 09:35:22" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["guid"]=> string(50) "http://148.62.4.17/wp-content/uploads/S_202MBS.pdf" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_mime_type"]=> string(15) "application/pdf" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" ["status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["attachment_authors"]=> bool(false) }