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object(Timber\Post)#3742 (44) { ["ImageClass"]=> string(12) "Timber\Image" ["PostClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Post" ["TermClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Term" ["object_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["custom"]=> array(5) { ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(12) "S_102MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "250151" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(83684) "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government Mark Baldassare Senior Fellow and Survey Director January 2002 Public Policy Institute of California Preface The PPIC Statewide Survey consists of an ongoing series of surveys designed to provide policymakers, the media, and the general public with objective, advocacy-free information on the perceptions, opinions and public policy preferences of residents throughout the state of California. Begun in April 1998, the surveys have generated a database that includes the responses of over 46,000 Californians. This report presents the results of the twenty-third PPIC Statewide Survey. The surveys have included a number of special editions focusing on particular regions and themes: • The Central Valley (Nov. 1999, March 2001) • San Diego County (July 2000) • Orange County (Sept. 2001) • Population Growth (May 2001) • Land Use (Nov. 2001) • U.S.-Japan Relations (Sept. 2001) • The Environment (June 2000) The current survey is the eighth in a new series that will be conducted on a periodic basis throughout the 2002 election cycle. The series will focus on the social, economic, and political trends and public policy preferences underlying ballot choices in statewide races and citizens’ initiatives. This report presents the responses of 2,023 adult residents throughout the state on a wide range of issues: • The California election in 2002, including trends in likely voter preferences in the Republican gubernatorial primary in March, potential match-ups of major party candidates in the gubernatorial election in November, and support for Proposition 45 on the March ballot that calls for a reform of the state’s legislative term limits law. We also consider how voters perceive the governor’s involvement in the state’s electricity problems and budget deficit. • California policy issues, including perceptions of the most important problem for the governor and legislature to work on in 2002, trends over time in overall ratings of the governor and legislature, a report card on Governor Davis’ handling of specific policy areas, tax and spending preferences with respect to the state’s budget deficit, and trends over time in perceptions of the state’s rankings in student spending and test scores. • National policy issues, including overall approval ratings of the president; Californians’ concerns about terrorism, homeland security, and related civil liberties issues; public support for the use of identification cards for citizens and noncitizens as a way to increase homeland security; and the public’s trust in the federal government, including trends over time and current comparisons with trust in the state government. • Social and economic trends, including perceptions of the state of the state; the state’s economy; computer and Internet use over time across racial and ethnic groups, demographic groups, and regions; and Internet use for holiday shopping and news gathering. • How growing regions and groups such as the Central Valley, Latinos, and independent voters affect overall statewide trends in ballot choices and policy preferences. Copies of earlier survey reports or additional copies of this report may be ordered by e-mail (order@ppic.org) or phone (415-291-4400). The reports are also posted on the publications page of the PPIC web site (www.ppic.org). -i- - ii - Contents Preface Press Release California 2002 Election California Policy Issues National Policy Issues Social and Economic Trends Survey Methodology Survey Questions and Results Survey Advisory Committee i v 1 5 11 17 21 23 28 - iii - - iv - Press Release CALIFORNIANS AT ODDS WITH GOVERNOR OVER STATE'S MOST PRESSING PROBLEMS Californians More Worried Than Nation About Civil Liberties; State's Digital Divide Widens During Recession SAN FRANCISCO, California, January 17, 2002 — A resurgence of optimism among California residents has not translated into support for Governor Gray Davis on critical election-year issues, according to a new survey by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC). Californians are more bullish today than at any time in the past year: 48 percent say they expect good economic times in California during the next year – an 11-point jump since December. And six in 10 residents (59%) continue to believe the state is headed in the right direction. But despite this newfound optimism and a steady overall approval rating of Governor Davis (52%), the governor appears to be losing ground with state residents on their most pressing policy concerns. On all four issues that residents think are most important for the governor and state legislature to work on in 2002 – public schools, electricity, jobs and the economy, and the budget and taxes – fewer than half say they approve of his performance. Although Davis has made K-12 education his signature issue and has invested major political and financial capital in it, only 39 percent say they approve of his work on education, compared to 45 percent in January 2001 and 51 percent in January 2000. Although he has gained some ground since 2000 on the electricity crisis, just 39 percent currently approve of his handling of the issue. Forty-five percent say they approve of his handling of jobs and the economy, compared to 49 percent in 2000; and 42 percent approve of his performance on the state budget and taxes, down from 57 percent in 2000. Davis receives his best marks on the issues of terrorism and security (68%) and crime and punishment (52%). Related finding: • In the face of a looming state budget deficit, most Californians choose spending cuts (53%) or a mixture of spending cuts and tax increases (32%) as their preferred means of making up the shortfall. Only one in 10 opt for tax increases alone. Campaign Update: Riordan Steady; Term Limits Initiative Falters Two months before the March 5th primary, former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan continues to hold a sizable lead over his two opponents for the Republican nomination for governor. The current standings remain virtually unchanged from one month ago: Among likely GOP primary voters, 41 percent are inclined to vote for Riordan, 13 percent for Secretary of State Bill Jones, 4 percent for businessman William Simon, and 42 percent remain undecided. Independent voters — who under new open primary rules can choose either a Republican or Democratic ballot — are now as likely to vote in the Democratic primary (20%) as in the Republican primary (18%), a shift from last month when twice as many independents indicated they would vote Republican. Still, 42 percent of independents say they do not plan to vote in either primary. In potential match-ups, Riordan still holds a slight lead over Davis among likely voters (41% to 37%), although the number of undecided voters has increased. GOP voters remain more loyal to Riordan (73%) than Democrats are to Davis (63%). Since December, Davis has lost some of his lead in the -v- Press Release San Francisco Bay area, while Riordan has seen his lead shrink in the Southern California counties outside of the Los Angeles area and now receives the backing of far fewer Latinos. Davis currently leads in potential contests with Jones (42% to 31%) and Simon (42% to 29%). “Schools are the top priority for state voters, and the fact that only one-third of the voters approve of Davis’ handling of the issue is a big problem for him,” says PPIC Statewide Survey Director Mark Baldassare. Likely voters who approve of Davis’ performance on schools favor Davis over Riordan by a wide margin (54% to 29%), while those who disapprove of Davis on schools favor Riordan by a similar margin (50% to 26%). Related findings: • Seven in 10 likely voters say that Davis deserves a lot (38%) or some (31%) of the blame for the state’s electricity problems. A similar percentage think he deserves a lot (28%) or some (43%) of the blame for the state budget deficit. • Proposition 45 — the state ballot measure that would enable voters to allow their state legislators to extend their time in office beyond the current term limits — falls far short of majority support. Sixty-one percent of likely voters say they oppose the initiative, while 31 percent support it. Civil Liberties a Priority, But National ID’s a Possibility Although they remain anxious about terrorism, Californians are presently more afraid that government will encroach upon their civil liberties (51%) than that the government will not do enough to fight terrorism (37%). In fact, state residents express more concern about the loss of civil liberties than the nation as a whole, which is evenly divided between fear for civil liberties (43%) and a desire for government action (45%). Most Californians (62%) also say they are unwilling to allow government agencies to monitor the telephone calls and email of ordinary Americans, similar to the nation as a whole (65%). These findings are notable, given the governor’s recent proposals for wiretapping and electronic surveillance. “There doesn’t appear to be an appetite in the state at this time for proposals that could be intrusive or restrict civil liberties,” says Baldassare. However, many Californians are willing to consider national identification cards to better track the movement of non-citizens and citizens. Eighty-two percent said the federal government should issue mandatory ID cards to non-citizens entering the United States, which would be linked to a federal database containing detailed personal information on the cardholder. A smaller majority (55%) said they would support voluntary ID cards for American citizens. A national survey conducted in November found that 66 percent of Americans would support mandatory ID cards for U.S. citizens. Related findings: • Sixty percent of state residents say they would support a measure proposed for the November 2002 ballot to raise the state sales tax in order to fund increased terrorism readiness. The measure, which would increase the state’s sales tax from 6% to 6¼ %, is opposed by 35 percent of Californians. • Fifty-five percent say the government is doing an excellent (9%) or good (46%) job in building defenses at home to prevent future terrorist attacks. Despite some highly-publicized security breaches, more Californians feel the government is doing enough to protect airline passengers (49%) than feel it could do more (39%), although some (8%) believe it has already done too much. - vi - Press Release • President Bush’s approval rating on terrorism and security issues remains high (85%). • Nearly half of Californians (46%) say they trust the federal government to do what is right most or just about all of the time, up from 34 percent in October 2000. In contrast, trust in state government remains virtually unchanged at 47 percent from January 2001. Digital Divide Still a Reality California continues to lead the nation in computer use — the vast majority of residents use a computer at home, work, or school (78%), and access the Internet, World Wide Web, or email (72%). In fact, Internet use among Californians is at its highest level since PPIC first began tracking online access in 1999. Steady overall computer use among California residents, however, masks a decline in computer use among Latinos. Over the past year, Latino computer use has dropped 5 percentage points (72% to 67%), and the eight-point gap between Latinos and non-Hispanic whites last year has grown to 13 points (67% to 81%). The gap between Latinos and non-Hispanic whites in Internet use has also grown from 16 to 20 points, driven by growing Internet access among non-Hispanic whites. “The digital divide is really an economic story, so it is not entirely surprising that we see a decline in computer use among lower-income residents who may have been hit harder by the recession,” says Baldassare. Indeed, higher-income Latinos ($40,000 +) have nearly identical rates of computer and Internet use as their non-Hispanic white counterparts. Related finding: • In contrast to media reports of increased online holiday shopping, the percentage of Californians using the Internet to purchase Christmas or holiday gifts remained steady compared to one year ago (25% to 24%). Again, income is a critical factor: While 46 percent of Californians with annual household incomes greater than $80,000 used the Internet for holiday shopping, only 11 percent of those with incomes under $40,000 bought gifts online. About the Survey The purpose of the PPIC Statewide Survey is to develop an in-depth profile of the social, economic, and political forces affecting California elections and public policy preferences. PPIC will conduct large-scale public opinion surveys on a regular basis leading up to the November 2002 election. Findings of the current survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,023 California adult residents interviewed from December 26, 2001, to January 10, 2002. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish. The sampling error for the total sample is +/- 2%. The sampling error for the 1,502 registered voters is +/2.5% and for the 954 likely voters is +/- 3.5%. For more information on survey methodology, see page 21. Dr. Mark Baldassare is a senior fellow at PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder and director of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has conducted since 1998. PPIC is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to objective, nonpartisan research on economic, social, and political issues that affect Californians. The Institute was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. David W. Lyon is President and CEO of PPIC. This report will appear on PPIC’s website (www.ppic.org) on January 17. ### - vii - Riordan Jones Simon Other/Don't know 42% 41% Davis Riordan Other/Don't know 22% 37% 4% 13% 41% If the Republican primary election for governor were held today and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? Percent yes 80 76% 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Non-Hispanic Whites 56% Latinos Do you ever go on-line to access the Internet or World Wide Web or to send or receive email? Government w ill fail to enact law s Government w ill restrict civil liberties Other answ er/Don't know 12% 37% If these were the candidates in the November 2002 governor’s election, would you vote for … ? Reduce spending Mix 5% Increase taxes Other/Don't know 32% 53% 10% Considering a budget deficit of up to $12 billion, how would you most prefer to balance the state budget? Economy Electricity 14% 14% 51% Which concerns you more – that the government will fail to enact strong anti-terrorism laws or that the government will enact anti- terrorism laws that will excessively restrict civil liberties? Education 20% 0 10 20 30 Top three issues facing the governor and legislature in 2002 California 2002 Election Republican Primary for Governor Richard Riordan continues to hold a large lead over the other major candidates for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. With less than two months of campaigning left before the March 5th primary, about four in 10 likely voters in the GOP primary are either undecided (37%) or name candidates other than the top three contenders (5%). Currently, 41 percent of likely voters opt for Riordan, 13 percent for Bill Jones, and 4 percent for William Simon. The results in this survey are virtually the same as they were in a PPIC Statewide Survey conducted one month ago. At this stage, about four in 10 independent voters plan to take advantage of the “open” primary rules allowing them to choose between Republican and Democratic ballots in the primary, with equal numbers choosing to vote Republican and Democratic. Still, the impact on the independent vote in the GOP primary is minimal, since 7 percent of the likely voters in the GOP primary are independent voters and 93 percent are Republicans. In the last month, independent voters have become more interested in voting in the Democratic rather than the GOP primary. Riordan has a solid edge over his rivals among men and women and across all age, education, and income categories. He also enjoys more support than the other two candidates combined among the moderate, somewhat conservative, and very conservative voters in the GOP primary. There are, however, regional differences: Jones leads Riordan and Simon in the Central Valley (33% to 16% to 5%), while Riordan leads the other candidates by substantial margins elsewhere in the state. "If the March 2002 primary election for California Governor were held today, who would you vote for?" Richard Riordan Bill Jones William E. Simon Other/ Don't know GOP Primary (likely voters) Dec 01 Jan 02 37% 41% 13 13 54 45 42 "Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or neither?" Republican Democrat Neither Don't know Independents (likely voters) Dec 01 Jan 02 23% 18% 11 20 40 42 26 20 -1- California 2002 Election Leading Candidates in Governor’s Race Only four in 10 voters support the reelection bid of Governor Davis – regardless of his GOP opponent. Currently, Richard Riordan represents Davis' toughest challenge, with the two possible candidates in a virtual tie (41% to 37%) among likely voters. Davis leads in a potential matchup with Jones by 11 points (42% to 31%) and in a possible race with Simon by 13 points (42% to 29%). Similar trends were evident in the December survey, with the most noticeable change being an increase in the number of undecided voters. Davis and Riordan are in a tight race because GOP voters are more loyal to Riordan than Democratic voters are to Davis, while independent voters are dividing their support between Davis and Riordan. The two candidates are in a close contest in the Democratic-leaning Los Angeles region, while Davis leads Riordan in the San Francisco Bay area, and Riordan leads Davis elsewhere in the state. Riordan leads Davis among non-Hispanic whites (47% to 30%), while Davis has a solid edge over Riordan among Latino voters (60% to 23%). Currently, the “gender gap” is small in this potential matchup: Davis has a slight edge over Riordan among women (41% to 36%), while men favor Riordan over Davis (47% to 34%). Davis is currently leading in potential matchups with GOP candidates Simon and Jones because the candidates have similar levels of support among voters within their own parties, while independent voters express a preference for Davis. Davis has large leads over both Jones and Simon in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay area. Davis is running even with Simon and Jones among non-Hispanic whites, has strong support among Latinos, and is the solid favorite among women. "If these were the candidates in the November 2002 governor’s election, would you vote for …" (1) (2) (3) Likely Voters Likely Voters Likely Voters Gray Davis Richard Riordan Other/Don't know 37% 41 22 Gray Davis Bill Jones Other/Don't know 42% 31 27 Gray Davis William E. Simon Other/Don’t know 42% 29 29 Likely Voters Party Dem Other Central Rep Voters Valley Gray Davis 63% 9% 32% 34% (1) Richard Riordan 17 73 36 48 Other/Don't know 20 18 32 18 Gray Davis (2) Bill Jones Other/Don't know 66% 8 26 15% 64 21 38% 22 40 32% 46 22 Gray Davis (3) William E. Simon Other/Don’t know 68% 6 26 15% 61 24 34% 23 43 35% 39 26 Region SF Bay Area 40% 29 31 42% 23 35 42% 24 34 Los Angeles 41% 45 14 49% 25 26 48% 24 28 Other Southern California 34% 43 23 39% 35 26 40% 33 27 Latino 60% 23 17 58% 17 25 61% 14 25 -2- California 2002 Election Image of Governor Davis The three GOP candidates for governor have remained united thus far on one theme in the 2002 primary campaign – that Governor Davis is responsible for the state’s most pressing problems. Many voters apparently agree with this message, holding the governor at least partly responsible for the state’s ongoing problems with electricity and a growing budget deficit. In fact, seven in 10 likely voters say that Davis deserves a lot (38%) or some (31%) of the blame for the state’s electricity problems. There are strong partisan differences, with 22 percent of Democrats placing a lot of the responsibility on Davis for this problem, compared to a solid majority of Republicans (57%) and more than one in three independent voters (37%). Seven in 10 likely voters believe that Davis is at least partly responsible for the state’s budget deficit, though a smaller percentage says he is to blame “a lot” (28%), while 43 percent say he deserves some of the blame. Nearly half of Republicans (47%) believe that Davis shares a lot of the blame for the state deficit, compared to one in four independent voters (26%) and 13 percent of Democrats. Those who blame Davis “a lot” for the electricity problems and budget deficit are much more likely to support Riordan, Jones, and Simon in their matchups against Davis than are those who believe that he has little or no responsibility for these problems. A lot Some Very little None Don't know "How much do you blame Governor Davis for California’s electricity problems – a lot, some, very little, or not at all?" Likely Voters All Likely Voters 38% 31 18 11 2 Democrat 22% 34 26 15 3 Party Republican 57% 27 10 5 1 Other 37% 32 15 15 1 Latino 24% 37 27 10 2 "How much do you blame Governor Davis for the state government’s budget deficit – a lot, some, very little, or not at all?” All Likely Voters A lot Some Very little None Don't know 28% 43 19 8 2 Democrat 13% 45 26 13 3 Likely Voters Party Republican 47% 40 10 2 1 Other 26% 46 20 6 2 Latino 13% 55 18 13 1 -3- California 2002 Election Proposition 45: Legislative Term Limits Initiative Proposition 45 – the citizen’s initiative that would enable voters to let their incumbent legislators extend their time in office beyond the current term limits – falls far short of majority support. There has been a dramatic decline in support since the last survey, perhaps resulting from the fact that this survey changed its question to correspond to a change in the fiscal impact wording on the official ballot label. Currently, only three in 10 voters support this measure as it will appear on the March ballot. Six in 10 voters would vote no on this proposition, with strong opposition across all political groups and regions. Another factor limiting support for this initiative is the fact that only three in 10 voters think that state legislators would be “more effective” in representing their area if they could extend their stay in office, as Proposition 45 would allow. Majority support (56%) for Proposition 45 is achieved only among those voters who believe that state legislators would be more effective if they were allowed to serve beyond their current limits. "Proposition 45 on the March 2002 ballot – the 'Legislative Term Limits, Local Voter Petitions' initiative – allows voters to submit petition signatures to permit their incumbent legislator to run for re-election and serve a maximum of four years beyond the terms provided for in the constitution if a majority of voters approves. The fiscal impact includes unknown county costs potentially up to several hundreds of thousands of dollars biennially statewide. If an election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 45?" Likely Voters Dec 01 Jan 02* Yes 46% 31% No 45 61 Don’t know 98 *The language used in this survey reflects the updated fiscal impact analysis on the official ballot label. Prior to the December survey, fiscal impacts were described as "unknown, probably minor." Yes No Don't know Dem 33% 59 8 Party Rep 28% 65 7 Other Voters 32% 61 7 Likely Voters Region Central Valley 29% 62 9 SF Bay Area 38% 56 6 Los Angeles 31% 64 5 Other Southern California 27% 64 9 Latino 31% 60 9 "What if your current state legislators were allowed to serve up to four years beyond the current term limits of three two-year terms in the state assembly and two four-year terms in the state senate? Would they be more effective or less effective in representing your area, or would there be no difference?" More effective Less effective No difference Don’t know Likely Voters 31% 23 40 6 -4- California Policy Issues Overall Job Performance Ratings for State Officials Governor Davis’ job performance rating has held steady in all of our surveys since the September 11th terrorist attacks, with 52 percent of Californians currently saying they approve of the job he is doing in office. This is virtually the same rating as in November (54%) and December (51%). Although his approval rating is higher than in May (46%) and July (44%), it is considerably lower than it was this time last year (62%). Davis’ overall approval rating is twice as high among Democrats (64%) as it is among Republicans (32%), while half of independent and other voters approve of the way he is handling his job as governor. A greater percentage of Latinos (70%) than non-Hispanic whites (44%) approve of the governor’s overall performance in office. Likely voters offer a more mixed overall rating: Fewer than half (46%) approve of Davis’ job performance, while 49 percent disapprove. Among the likely voters who approve of Davis’ performance overall in office, most would support him in a governor’s race involving Riordan (67% to 14%), while among those who disapprove of his performance in office, most support Riordan over Davis (68% to 10%). About half of the state's residents (49%) approve of the legislature’s performance. This rating is similar to the ratings from last December (53%) and July (45%) but is 9 points lower than it was a year ago (58%). A larger percentage of Democrats (55%) than Republicans (41%) approves of the job the Democratcontrolled state legislature is doing, while half of independent and other voters approve of the legislature's job performance. The legislature’s ratings are higher among Latinos than among nonHispanic whites (59% to 45%). Among likely voters, 46 percent approve and 43 percent disapprove of the job that the legislature is doing. Proposition 45, the effort to extend legislative term limits, is currently opposed by both those who approve of the legislature’s performance (59%) and those who disapprove of the job it is doing (65%). Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Davis is handling his job as governor of California? Approve Disapprove Don’t know Do you approve or disapprove of the job the California legislature is doing at this time? Approve Disapprove Don’t know Sep 00 Oct 00 Jan 01 May 01 Jul 01 Nov 01 Dec 01 Jan 02 66% 24 10 60% 28 12 62% 24 14 46% 41 13 44% 45 11 54% 36 10 51% 37 12 52% 38 10 56% 31 13 – – – 58% 27 15 – – – 45% 37 18 – – – 53% 29 18 49% 35 16 -5- California Policy Issues Governor’s Report Card Californians are giving a mixed report card to their governor as he seeks reelection. When they are asked to evaluate his performance on specific issues, approval ratings range from 68 percent to 39 percent on seven different topics. Two in three residents approve of his handling of terrorism and security issues, while a slight majority approves of the way he is managing crime and punishment issues. He fares less well in other key areas: 45 percent approve of the way the governor is handling jobs and the economy and 42 percent approve of his management of the state budget and taxes. Just under four in 10 Californians approve of the governor’s efforts in three other crucial areas: public schools, transportation and traffic, and the state’s electricity problem (39% each). Since the January 2000 survey, the governor’s approval ratings on crime and punishment issues and jobs and the economy have remained relatively consistent. However, there have been large declines in his ratings for handling the state budget and taxes (57% to 42%), schools (51% to 39%), and transportation and traffic congestion (46% to 39%). The one area in which Davis’ approval rating has improved is his handling of the state’s electricity problem (28% to 39%); however, 54 percent of the state’s residents disapprove of the job that he is doing in this area. More than six in 10 residents have approved of the governor’s handling of terrorism and security issues in all three surveys that we have conducted since September 11th. In fact, the governor's ratings on this issue have improved slightly over time, increasing from 62 percent in November to 66 percent in December to 68 percent in this survey. Democrats are most approving of the job that Davis is doing on terrorism and security (75%), crime and punishment (57%), and jobs and the economy (51%). Fewer than half of the Democrats approve of the job the governor is doing on the budget and taxes (48%), the electricity situation (46%), traffic congestion (44%), and schools (38%). Democrats are as likely to approve as to disapprove of Davis’ performance on schools (38% to 42%), despite the significance that the governor has placed on improving the schools. More than half of Republicans (56%) approve of Davis’ performance on terrorism and security issues. By comparison, Davis receives lower approval ratings among Republicans for crime and punishment (43%), jobs and the economy (35%), schools (32%), traffic congestion (27%), the state budget and taxes (27%), and the electricity problem (24%). For the most part, voters outside of the two major parties are similar to all Californians in most of their ratings of the governor’s performance on specific issues: 69 percent approve of his performance on terrorism and security issues and half approve of his performance on crime and punishment (51%), while fewer than half approve of his handling of jobs and the economy (46%), schools (45%), the state budget and taxes (45%), the electricity problem (42%), and traffic congestion (41%). Likely voters assessment of Davis is as follows: a majority approves of his performance on terrorism and security issues (66%), and crime and punishment (52%), while fewer than half approve of his handling of jobs and the economy (43%), the state budget and taxes (39%), traffic congestion (35%), schools (34%), and the electricity problem (32%). When Governor Davis was elected in 1998, he said that his most important priority would be schools. How do voters assessments of his performance on this issue influence their support for his reelection? In a potential matchup with the current GOP frontrunner, likely voters who approve of Davis’ performance on schools favor Davis over Riordan by a wide margin (54% to 29%), while those who disapprove of Davis’ performance on schools favor Riordan over Davis by a similarly large margin (50% to 26%). -6- California Policy Issues "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor Davis is handling …" 2000 2001 2002 … terrorism and security?* Approve – – 68% Disapprove – – 20 Don’t know – – 12 … crime and punishment?* Approve Disapprove 55% 24 54% 27 52% 29 Don’t know 21 19 19 … jobs and the economy? Approve 49% – 45% Disapprove 29 – 39 Don’t know 22 – 16 … the state budget and taxes? Approve 57% 53% 42% Disapprove 23 31 46 Don’t know 20 16 12 … the state’s K-12 public education system? Approve Disapprove Don’t know 51% 28 21 45% 32 23 39% 40 21 … the electricity problem? Approve 28% 24% 39% Disapprove 36 62 54 Don’t know 36 14 7 … transportation and traffic congestion? Approve Disapprove Don’t know 46% 27 27 41% 39 20 39% 45 16 Note: Question on jobs and the economy for 2000 asked in May 2000; question on electricity for 2000 asked in September 2000; all other questions asked in January surveys. *2002 crime and terrorism ratings are based on a split-sample of 1,000 respondents. -7- California Policy Issues Most Important Issue for 2002 Asked which single issue should be the top priority for the governor and state legislature this year, Californians once again placed public schools (20%) at the top of the list, followed by electricity prices and deregulation, and jobs and the economy (14% each). No other issue is mentioned by more than one in 10 residents. Despite a looming $12 billion state budget deficit, only 7 percent mentioned this as their top priority for state government action. Interestingly, only 4 percent mentioned terrorism and security issues as the number one priority for the governor and state legislature in 2002. Schools and electricity prices are mentioned less than they were a year ago, while references to jobs and the economy have risen 10 points. Looking back to the January 1999 survey – conducted soon after Davis was elected governor – fewer people today are mentioning the schools, and more are concerned about the economy. Concern about jobs and the economy is greater in the San Francisco Bay area (19%) than elsewhere. Latinos are more likely than non-Hispanic whites to mention either the economy (18% to 12%) or terrorism and security (9% to 2%) as the most pressing issue for legislative action. Non-Hispanic whites are more likely than Latinos to mention energy as the top issue (17% to 10%). Among likely voters, 23 percent mention schools, 16 percent name electricity problems, and 14 percent believe that the economy is the most important issue. Currently, Riordan is the favorite in the GOP primary for likely voters who identify schools, electricity, or the economy as their most important issue. Looking at a potential matchup in the November election between the governor and the current GOP frontrunner, Davis is favored over Riordan among those who name schools (43% to 32%) and the economy (45% to 38%) as most important to them, while Riordan is favored over Davis (55% to 24%) for those who name electricity as the most important issue for the governor and state legislature to work on in 2002. "Which one issue facing California today do you think is most important for the governor and state legislature to work on in 2002?" All Adults Public schools Electricity prices, deregulation Jobs, the economy Budget and taxes Environment, land use, and growth Terrorism and security Immigration, illegal immigration Crime, gangs Transportation and traffic congestion Poverty, homelessness Health care, HMO reform Other issues Don't know 1999 36% – 5 6 3 – 5 7 2 5 3 10 18 2000 28% – 5 6 5 – 8 7 3 4 5 12 17 2001 26% 25 4 4 4 – 4 3 2 2 4 10 12 2002 20% 14 14 7 6 4 4 3 3 3 2 10 10 Note: Question asked in January surveys, except for the year 2000, when it was asked in December 1999. -8- California Policy Issues State Budget and Taxes In the face of a looming state budget deficit, most Californians choose spending cuts (53%) or a mixture of spending cuts and tax increases (32%) as their preferred means of making up the shortfall. Only one in 10 opt for tax increases alone as their preferred solution for the expected $12 billion deficit. Spending cuts are the top choice among all political parties, although Republicans are more supportive than Democrats of this approach (67% to 46%). A sizeable number of Democrats (39%) and independent and other voters (36%) favor a mixture of spending cuts and tax increases. Latinos and non-Hispanic whites are equally likely to favor balancing the budget through reductions in state spending (50% to 54%) or a mixture of cuts and new taxes (30% to 34%). Californians show initial support for a proposed ballot measure to raise the state sales tax to fund increased terrorism readiness, with 60 percent saying they would vote yes and 35 percent opposed. Among likely voters, support currently stands at 58 percent. This proposed measure, which would raise the state’s sales tax from 6 to 6¼ percent, has favorable support among all political parties, including 68 percent of Democrats and 51 percent of Republicans. Latinos are more likely than non-Hispanic whites to favor this tax increase measure (68% to 59%). The state sales tax increase to pay for increased funding for police, fire, and emergency services is favored equally in all regions of the state and currently has at least majority support among all demographic groups. "The state government faces a budget deficit up to $12 billion in the next year. Which would you most prefer as a way to balance the state budget?" Reduce spending and avoid tax increases Increase taxes and avoid spending cuts Mix of spending cuts and tax increases None of the above (volunteered) Don’t know All Adults 53% 10 32 2 3 Democrat 46% 12 39 1 2 Party Registration Republican Other Voters 67% 49% 6 11 24 36 22 12 Not Registered to Vote Latino 52% 50% 11 15 29 30 21 64 "A measure is proposed for the November 2002 ballot which would raise the state sales tax from 6% to 6¼%. The goal of the measure is to increase funding for police, fire, and medical agencies by about $1 billion per year as part of an effort to increase terrorism readiness. If an election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure?" Yes No Don’t know All Adults 60% 35 5 Democrat 68% 30 2 Party Registration Republican 51% 44 5 Other Voters 57% 40 3 Not Registered to Vote 62% 29 9 Latino 68% 26 7 -9- California Policy Issues Public Schools: Per-Pupil Spending and Student Testing Californians’ opinions of public school funding and student testing have changed little over time, even as the state government has invested major attention in both areas. Nearly half of all residents still believe that per-pupil spending, compared to other states, is below average (28%) or near the bottom (20%). Only 15 percent think that funding is above the national average, while one in four believes it is about average. The majority of residents also believe that California's test scores are below average (39%) or near the bottom (16%), while fewer than one in 10 think they are above the national average and 29 percent think they are about average. How do these opinions compare with actual state rankings on these measures? According to a recently released report (Education Week: "Quality Counts 2002"), California ranks near the bottom among all states in per-pupil spending and student achievement. Within the state, parents with children in the public schools are more likely than others to think the state’s spending is below the national average (51% to 42%) but are slightly less inclined than others to think student test scores are lower than the national average (50% to 56%). Latinos are less likely than non-Hispanic whites to think the state’s spending on education is below average or near the bottom (40% to 51%) and much less likely to believe that California’s student test scores are sub-par (40% to 61%). Californians are similar to Americans nationwide in expressing solid support for the idea of having students pass statewide tests in order to graduate from high school (74%) or before they are promoted in elementary school grades (76%). Californians with children in the public schools express similar levels of support. Those who think California student test scores are above average, the same, or below average compared to other states all express strong support for statewide tests. Where do you think California ranks in spending per pupil? Compared to other states, is California's spending ... Near the top Above average Average Below average Near the bottom Don't know Where do you think California ranks in student test scores for K-12 public schools? Compared to other states, are California's student test scores ... Near the top Above average Average Below average Near the bottom Don't know All Adults Apr 98 Feb 00 Jan 02 5% 9 28 27 20 11 6% 10 24 29 22 9 6% 9 24 28 20 13 2% – 8– 32 – 39 – 14 – 5– 2% 6 29 39 16 8 - 10 - National Policy Issues President’s Ratings Support for President George W. Bush remains strong in California since September 11th: 80 percent approve of the overall job he is doing in office. The president’s approval ratings were the same in the PPIC Statewide Surveys in November (80%) and December (79%). Californians’ attitudes are consistent with national findings: In a survey conducted by CNN/Time in December 2001, 82 percent of Americans approved of the president’s performance in office. Most Republicans (94%) as well as seven in ten Democrats and independent voters approve of the job the president is doing. Bush has even more support among Californians for his handling of terrorism and security, with an 85 percent approval rating. The president’s approval ratings for this issue were similar in our PPIC Statewide surveys in November (83%) and December (85%). The patterns of voter support in the current survey are similar to those noted above, but with smaller partisan differences in the ratings on terrorism and security issues. Residents across all regions of the state and in all demographic groups give the president high approval ratings for his overall job performance and his handling of terrorism and security. For example, there is almost no difference between Latinos and non-Hispanic whites in either overall approval of Bush's performance or specific approval of the way he is handling the issue of terrorism and security. Eight in 10 likely voters approve of the overall job Bush is doing as president. Of the likely voters who approve of Bush’s performance, 49 percent would vote for Riordan and 30 percent would vote for Davis if they face each other in November 2002. GOP candidates Simon and Jones are tied with Davis among those who approve of the president’s performance. Party Registration Do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Approve Disapprove Don’t know Do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling the issue of terrorism and security? Approve Disapprove Don’t know All Adults Democrat 80% 17 3 70% 25 5 85% 13 2 81% 17 2 Republican 94% 5 1 94% 4 2 Other Voters 74% 24 2 79% 19 2 Not Registered to Vote Latino 82% 13 5 82% 15 3 86% 12 2 88% 10 2 - 11 - National Policy Issues Terrorism and Security Issues Seven in 10 Californians rate terrorism and security as either a big problem (25%) or somewhat of a problem (44%) in the state today. Yet, only one in three Californians say that are very worried or somewhat that they or someone in their family will be the victim of a terrorist attack. Most Californians are satisfied with the government’s efforts to thwart future terrorist attacks. More than half of the state's residents (55%) believe that the government is doing an excellent or good job in building defenses at home. In a national survey by the Pew Research Center in November 2001, 62 percent said that the government is doing an excellent or good job in building defenses at home (down from 69 percent in October). Latinos (65%) are more likely than non-Hispanic whites (54%) to say that the government is doing an excellent or good job in building defenses at home. Those with less education and lower income are similarly positive about the government’s efforts in this realm. Despite highly-publicized security breaches, more Californians feel the government is doing enough to protect airline passengers (49%) than feel it could do more (39%), while relatively few residents (8%) believe it has already done too much. There are no partisan differences, except that those who are not registered to vote are more satisfied than others with current government efforts. Latinos are also more likely than non-Hispanic whites to say that the government is doing as much as it should (60% to 45%). In general, those with less education and lower incomes are more likely to feel the government’s efforts to increase airport security have been adequate. "How would you rate the job the government is doing in building defenses at home to prevent future terrorist attacks? Would you say the government is doing an excellent, good, only fair, or poor job?" Excellent Good Fair Poor Don’t know All Adults 9% 46 31 10 4 Democrat 8% 43 33 11 5 Party Registration Republican 9% 47 32 8 4 Other Voters 9% 40 36 12 3 Not Registered to Vote 13% 53 23 7 4 Latino 16% 49 24 9 2 "In efforts to reduce the threat of terrorism, do you think the government is now doing too much, too little, or the right amount on U.S. airport security?" Too much Too little Right amount Don’t use airports/haven’t flown lately (volunteered) Don’t know All Adults 8% 39 49 1 3 Democrat 6% 43 48 1 2 Party Registration Republican 5% 43 48 Other Voters 9% 40 47 22 22 Not Registered to Vote 9% 29 58 Latino 9% 28 60 11 32 - 12 - National Policy Issues Civil Liberties and Security Issues Despite the perception that terrorism is a problem in the state, Californians are more afraid that the government will encroach upon their civil liberties (51%) than that the government will not do enough to fight terrorism (37%). In fact, a higher percentage of Californians are concerned about civil liberties than are Americans at large, who were evenly divided between concern about civil liberties and desire for government action in a December CBS/New York Times poll (43% to 45%). Democrats (55%) and voters outside of the major parties (56%) are more likely than Republicans (40%) to say they are more concerned about encroachment on civil liberties than enacting strong laws. Latinos are more concerned than non-Hispanic whites about such infringement (57% to 47%). Concern about civil liberties runs as high among likely voters (52%) as among Californians as a whole (51%). The percentage of Californians that fear that the government will not pass strong laws to fight terrorism increases with income and age. Californians also reject a proposal that government agencies be allowed to monitor the email and telephone calls of ordinary Americans. Sixty-two percent oppose this idea – a number very close to the 65 percent of Americans who opposed the same proposal in a December CBS/New York Times poll. Most voters across political groups are not in favor of allowing government agencies to monitor email and telephone calls. Latinos, on the other hand, show surprising support for this proposal (48%), given their concern about infringement of civil liberties (57%). "Which concerns you more right now – that the government will fail to enact strong anti-terrorism laws or that the government will enact new anti-terrorism laws which excessively restrict the average person’s civil liberties?" Government will fail to enact laws Government will restrict civil liberties Other answer Don’t know All Adults 37% 51 3 9 Democrat 35% 55 3 7 Party Registration Republican 47% Other Voters 34% 40 56 32 10 8 Not Registered to Vote Latino 32% 30% 55 57 12 12 11 "In order to reduce the threat of terrorism, would you be willing to allow government agencies to monitor the telephone calls and email of ordinary Americans on a regular basis?" Willing Not willing Don’t know All Adults 35% 62 3 Democrat 32% 65 3 Party Registration Republican 40% 58 2 Other Voters 31% 67 2 Not Registered to Vote 41% 56 3 Latino 48% 49 3 - 13 - National Policy Issues National Identification Cards In response to the events of September 11th, some have proposed the idea of issuing identification cards to better track the movement of individuals. Support for this idea varies considerably, depending on whether the cards are meant for citizens or non-citizens. Eighty-two percent of respondents said they would be willing to require any non-citizen entering the United States to carry an identification card, but a much lower 55 percent said they would favor such cards for citizens, even if they were voluntary. In a national survey by ABC/Washington Post conducted in early November, 66 percent of Americans said they favored mandatory national identification cards for U.S. citizens. Similar percentages of Democrats (54%), Republicans (54%), and independents (51%) support identification cards for citizens, while a higher percentage of Republicans (92%) than Democrats (80%) or independents (78%) support cards for non-citizens. Identification cards for citizens receive more support among Latinos than among non-Hispanic whites (65% to 53%), while slightly fewer Latinos than nonHispanic whites favor issuing identification cards for non-citizens (77% to 85%). Citizen identification cards are favored by a lower percentage of native-born U.S. citizens (52%) than naturalized citizens (65%) or non-citizens (70%). Identification cards for non-citizens get more support among native citizens (84%) than among naturalized citizens (79%) or non-citizens (70%). "Do you favor or oppose having the federal government issue mandatory identification cards for non-citizens entering the United States, which would be linked to a federal database containing detailed personal information on the cardholders?" Favor Oppose Don’t know All Adults 82% 15 3 Democrat 80% 17 3 Party Registration Republican 92% 7 1 Other Voters 78% 19 3 Not Registered to Vote 77% 19 4 Latino 77% 19 4 "Do you favor or oppose having the federal government issue voluntary identification cards for U.S. citizens, which would be linked to a federal database containing detailed personal information on the cardholders? Favor Oppose Don’t know All Adults 55% 41 4 Democrat 54% 42 4 Party Registration Republican 54% 43 3 Other Voters 51% 47 2 Not Registered to Vote 61% 31 8 Latino 65% 30 5 - 14 - National Policy Issues Trust in Government: Overall Leadership About half of Californians (46%) say they trust the federal government to do what is right most or just about all of the time; about the same percentage (47%) express trust in the state government. This measure of trust in the federal government has increased from 34 percent in October 2000, the last time the PPIC Statewide Survey included this question. Trust in state government, by contrast, has not changed at all since the question was last asked in the January 2001 PPIC Statewide Survey. The percentage of Californians expressing trust in the federal government is similar to the percentage of Americans (49%) who say they trust the federal government, as indicated in a CNN/Time poll in late December. Californians' increasing trust of the federal government is partly due to a partisan shift. Republicans are now more likely to trust the federal government than are Democrats (47% to 42%). In October 2000, Republicans were much less likely than Democrats to say they trusted the federal government (25% to 41%). Thus, trust has not changed among the Democrats, while it has increased among GOP voters. The change among independent voters has been relatively small – 31 percent had a high level of overall trust in October 2000, compared to 38 percent in the current survey. Democrats are more likely to trust the state government than are Republicans (51% to 43%). The results were similar in January 2001: 52 percent of Democrats and 40 percent of Republicans said they had a high level of trust in state government. The opinions of independent voters have not changed over time: In January 2001, 39 percent expressed a high level of trust in state government. "How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in [Washington/Sacramento] to do what is right?" Just about always Most of the time Only some of the time Never (volunteered) Don’t know All Adults Washington Sacramento 7% 5% 39 42 52 49 11 13 "How much of the time to you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right?" Just about always Most of the time Only some of the time Never (volunteered) Don’t know All Adults 7% 39 52 1 1 Democrat 6% 36 56 1 1 Party Registration Republican 6% 41 50 2 1 Other Voters 5% 33 60 2 0 Not Registered to Vote 10% 43 41 1 5 Latino 15% 44 38 1 2 - 15 - National Policy Issues Trust in Government: Efficiency and Responsiveness Trust in the federal government’s fiscal abilities has not changed much over time: In the current survey, 54 percent of Californians believe the federal government wastes a lot of money, compared with a similar 58 percent in January 2000. By contrast, 38 percent believe that the state government wastes a lot of money, while 47 percent stated that the state government wasted a lot of money in January 2001. Americans as a whole express opinions about the federal government similar to those of Californians: According to a CBS/New York Times survey in late October last year, 52 percent said they felt it wastes a lot of money. A greater percentage of Republicans (60%) than Democrats (55%) or independent voters (56%) believe the federal government wastes a lot, and Republicans are also more likely to feel that the state government is very wasteful (48%, compared to 32% for Democrats and 41% for independents). The differences between Latinos and non-Hispanic whites on the issue of fiscal trust are significant: 57 percent of non-Hispanic whites say the federal government wastes a lot in taxes, compared to 44 percent of Latinos. In the same vein, a higher percentage of non-Hispanic whites (41%) than Latinos (30%) think the state government is wasteful. Similarities are evident in other questions about trust in the federal and state governments: 58 percent of Californians think the federal government is “pretty much run by a few big interests” – 54 percent say the same about the state government. In the most recent prior surveys asking these questions, 64 percent thought the federal government was pretty much run by a few big interests (October 2000), and 60 percent thought this was true of the state (January 2001). "Do you think that the people in [federal/state] government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes, waste some of it, or don’t waste very much of it?" Waste a lot Waste some Don't waste much Don't know All Adults Federal State Government Government 54% 38% 39 52 57 23 "Would you say the government is pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves, or that it is run for the benefit of all the people?" Few big interests Benefit of all the people Don't know All Adults Federal State Government Government 58% 54% 34 38 88 - 16 - Social and Economic Trends Overall Mood Californians’ attitudes about the economy have improved significantly since December, with residents evenly divided today on whether they expect good times or bad times for the state’s economy over the next 12 months. (Between May and December 2001, a majority of Californians had expected bad economic times.) This increasing optimism is part of a nationwide trend: The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index is up nine points since last November. Forty-eight percent of Californians now say they expect good financial times over the next 12 months, which is similar to the rating last seen a year ago (51%). Men (53%) continue to be more optimistic than women (43%) about the state’s economy. There are no other significant differences in perceptions of the economic outlook across age, region, income, or racial groups. Fifty-nine percent of Californians believe the state is headed in the right direction. Latinos (67%) continue to be more optimistic than non-Hispanic whites (55%). Democrats (64%) and other voters (62%) are more likely than Republicans (48%) to say the state is headed in the right direction. As for regional differences, those living in Los Angeles and the rest of Southern California (61% each) are more likely than others to say that the state is headed in the right direction. Residents with household incomes between $40,000 and $80,000 are more pessimistic about whether the state is headed in the right direction than those with lower or higher incomes. Pessimism about the state of the state also increases with age. "Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?" All Adults Sep 99 Dec 99 Feb 00 Aug 00 Jan 01 May 01 Jul 01 Nov 01 Dec 01 Jan 02 Good times 72% 76% 78% 72% 51% 38% 41% 32% 37% 48% Bad times 23 19 15 21 38 56 50 59 56 46 Don't know 5 5 7 7 11 699 7 6 "Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?" Right direction Wrong direction Don't know Dec 98 63% 28 9 Sep 99 61% 34 5 Dec 99 62% 31 7 Feb 00 65% 27 8 All Adults Aug 00 62% Jan 01 62% 30 29 89 May 01 44% 48 8 Jul 01 44% 47 9 Nov 01 60% 29 11 Dec 01 58% 33 9 Jan 02 59% 32 9 - 17 - Social and Economic Trends The Digital Divide A great majority of Californians continue to use computers and the Internet. In fact, this survey finds overall Internet access among Californians at the highest level (72%) since PPIC began tracking Internet use in September 1999. Comparing our results to those of a national survey conducted by the Pew Research Center in June 2001 indicates that Californians are more likely than Americans as a whole to use computers at home, work, or school (78% versus 72%). While overall computer use among California residents is at the highest level, there was a slight decline in computer use among Latino Californians over the past year. Latino computer usage has dropped 5 percentage points (72% to 67%), with most of the decline among Latinos who “often” use computers (51% to 45%). The 8-point gap in computer use between Latinos and non-Hispanic whites last year has now grown to 13 percentage points. Latino Internet usage has remained steady over the past year (56%), as a higher proportion of Latinos who use computers also use the Internet. However, the gap between Latinos and nonHispanic whites has grown by 4 points to 20 percentage points. A key component of this digital divide continues to be income: Latinos with annual household incomes of more than $40,000 are just as likely as non-Hispanic whites who also earn more than $40,000 to use computers (88%) – and only slightly less likely than those non-Hispanic whites to use the Internet (82% to 85%). It is the Latinos in lower-income categories who lag behind non-Hispanic whites in computer and Internet use. Do you ever use a computer at home, at work, or at school? Do you ever go on-line to access the Internet or World Wide Web or to send or receive e-mail? All Adults Sept Dec Jan Feb Aug Sept Oct Jan Jan 99 99 00 00 00 00 00 01 02 74% 76% 78% 72% 76% 78% 78% 79% 78% 60 61 64 60 66 68 68 69 72 "Do you ever use a computer at home, at work, or at school?" Latinos Sept 99 Dec 99 Jan 00 Feb 00 Aug 00 Sept 00 Oct 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 62% 67% 61% 55% 66% 68% 70% 72% 67% Non-Hispanic whites 77 77 81 76 79 80 80 80 81 "Do you ever go on-line to access the Internet or World Wide Web or to send or receive e-mail?" Latinos Sept 99 Dec 99 Jan 00 Feb 00 Aug 00 Sept 00 Oct 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 39% 42% 40% 39% 50% 51% 56% 56% 56% Non-Hispanic whites 65 66 70 66 70 73 71 72 76 - 18 - Social and Economic Trends Internet Shopping The current survey presents a picture of Internet use that stands in stark contrast to the wave of optimistic media reports of increased on-line holiday shopping this year. Although slightly more people in California use the Internet this year compared to this time last year, the percentage of Californians using the Internet to purchase Christmas or holiday gifts has remained steady (25%). Residents in the San Francisco Bay area continue to lead computer users in other California regions when it comes to the acceptance of e-commerce. Thirty-five percent of the San Francisco Bay area residents who report being on-line used the Internet to purchase Christmas or holiday gifts, compared to 21 percent in Los Angeles, 23 percent in the Southern California region outside of Los Angeles, and 20 percent in the Central Valley. The propensity of Californians to shop on-line continues to reflect the income, age, educational, and ethnic diversity in the state. While 46 percent of Californians with annual household incomes greater than $80,000 used the Internet for holiday shopping, only 11 percent of those with incomes under $40,000 bought presents on-line. Similarly, Californians who are age 55 and older are about half as likely as those under 55 to buy on-line (12% versus 25%). Those Californians who have at least a college degree are much more likely than those with a high school diploma or less to shop for the holidays on-line (36% versus 11%). Only 13 percent of Latinos did their gift shopping on-line this year, compared to 29 percent of non-Hispanic whites. Similarly, expectations for Internet shopping over the next year is nearly identical to last year’s projections: 27 percent of respondents expect to make “a lot” or “some” purchases over the Internet in the upcoming year, compared to 26 percent a year ago. In the past few months, did you buy any Christmas or holiday gifts over the Internet? Yes, often Yes, sometimes No Don't use Internet This year, how often do you expect to make purchases over the Internet? A lot Some Very little Not at all Don't use Internet Jan 00 5% 15 44 36 5% 18 21 20 36 Jan 01 9% 15 45 31 7% 19 23 20 31 Jan 02 9% 16 47 28 6% 21 23 22 28 - 19 - Social and Economic Trends Internet News Gathering Almost all Californians (93%) are continuing to closely follow news about the terrorist attacks on the United States, while 66 percent are closely following news about the stock market and U.S. economy. A similar proportion reported closely following these news stories in December. By contrast, only 38 percent of residents report that they are closely following the news about the state's elections. Nearly half of Californians (46%) went on-line in the past few months to get news and information about the attacks. By contrast, a November 2001 survey by the Pew Research Center reports that 35 percent of Americans “regularly” or “sometimes” used the Internet to learn about the terrorist attacks or the war on terrorism. Thirty-seven percent of Californians also went on-line for news about the stock market and U.S. economy. Regional differences in using the Internet as a news source mirror differences in overall Internet use. San Francisco Bay area residents used the Internet to gather news about the terrorist attacks (55%) and stocks and the economy (46%) more than Californians in other regions. Internet news gathering is more common among younger, wealthier, more educated, and nonHispanic white Californians. This is similar to the demographic trends in overall Internet use. For example, 53 percent of Californians under the age of 55 used the Internet to get news and information about the terrorist attacks, compared to only 25 percent of those age 55 and older. Only 35 percent of state residents with household incomes under $40,000 checked terrorism news on the Internet, while 63 percent of those with incomes higher than $80,000 went on-line for this information. Residents with at least a college degree are much more likely than those with a high school diploma or less to have turned to the Internet to learn about the terrorist attacks (62% to 26%). Similarly, a lower percentage of Latinos than non-Hispanic whites have used the Internet to follow this issue (38% to 48%). In the past few months, did you go on-line to get news and information about the terrorist attacks on the United States? Yes, often Yes, sometimes No Don’t use Internet In the past few months, did you go on-line to get news and information about the stock market and U.S. economy? Yes, often Yes, sometimes No Don’t use Internet All Adults 23% 23 26 28 20% 17 35 28 Central Valley 19% 20 25 36 15% 13 36 36 Region SF Bay Area Los Angeles 29% 26 24 21 21% 23 27 29 25% 21 33 21 19% 15 37 29 Other Southern California Latino 23% 22 27 28 16% 22 19 43 18% 18 36 28 10% 14 33 43 - 20 - Survey Methodology The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, with the assistance of Jon Cohen, survey research manager, and Lisa Cole and Eric McGhee, research associates. The findings of this survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,023 California adult residents interviewed from December 26, 2001, to January 10, 2002. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers, ensuring that both listed and unlisted telephone numbers were called. All telephone exchanges in California were eligible for calling. Telephone numbers in the survey sample were called up to five times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing by using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Each interview took an average of 20 minutes to complete. Interviewing was conducted in English or Spanish. The survey was translated into Spanish by Casa Hispana. We used recent U.S. Census and state figures to compare the demographic characteristics of the survey sample with characteristics of California's adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the census and state figures. The survey data in this report were statistically weighted to account for any demographic differences. The sampling error for the total sample of 2,023 adults is +/- 2 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 2 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger. The sampling error for the 1,502 registered voters is +/- 2.5%, for the 954 likely voters is +/-3.5%, and for the 373 GOP primary likely voters is +/- 5%. Sampling error is just one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. Throughout the report, we refer to four geographic regions. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “SF Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, and "Other Southern California" includes the mostly suburban regions of Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. These four regions were chosen for analysis because they are the major population centers of the state, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population; moreover, the growth of the Central Valley and “Other Southern California” regions have given them increasing political significance. We present specific results for Latinos because they account for about 28 percent of the state's adult population and constitute one of the fastest growing voter groups. The sample sizes for the African American and Asian subgroups are not large enough for separate statistical analysis. We contrast the opinions of Democrats and Republicans with "other" or “independent” registered voters. This third category includes those who are registered to vote as “decline to state” as well as a fewer number who say they are members of other political parties. In some cases, we compare PPIC Statewide Survey responses to responses recorded in national surveys conducted by Belden Russonello & Stewart in July 2000; Pew Research Center in June and November 2001; ABC/Washington Post in November 2001; CBS News/New York Times in October and December 2001; CNN/Time in December 2001; the Conference Board in December 2001; and Education Week: "Quality Counts 2002" (http://www.edweek.org/sreports/qc02/) in January 2002. We used 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2001 PPIC Statewide Surveys to analyze trends over time in California. - 21 - - 22 - PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT DECEMBER 26, 2001 – JANUARY 10, 2002 2,023 CALIFORNIA ADULT RESIDENTS; ENGLISH AND SPANISH MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 2% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE 1. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 59% right direction 32 wrong direction 9 don't know 2. Which one issue facing California today do you think is the most important for the governor and state legislature to work on in 2002? (code, don’t read) 20% public schools 14 electricity process, deregulation 14 jobs, the economy 7 budget and taxes 6 environment, land use, and growth 4 terrorism and security 4 immigration, illegal immigration 3 crime, gangs 3 transportation and traffic congestion 3 poverty, homelessness 2 health care, HMO reform 10 other (specify) 10 don't know 3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Gray Davis is handling his job as governor of California? 52% approve 38 disapprove 10 don’t know (rotate q. 4 through 9) 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor Davis is handling the state’s kindergarten through twelfth grade public education system? 39% approve 40 disapprove 21 don't know 5a. [split sample] Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Davis is handling crime and punishment issues? 52% approve 29 disapprove 19 don't know 5b. [split sample] Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Davis is handling the issue of terrorism and security in California? 68% approve 20 disapprove 12 don't know - 23 - 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Davis is handling the issue of transportation and traffic congestion? 39% approve 45 disapprove 16 don't know 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Davis is handling the state budget and taxes? 42% approve 46 disapprove 12 don't know 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Davis is handling the issue of the electricity problem in California? 39% approve 54 disapprove 7 don't know 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Davis is handling the issue of jobs and the economy in California? 45% approve 39 disapprove 16 don't know 10. On another topic, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job the California legislature is doing at this time? 49% approve 35 disapprove 16 don’t know 11. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 48% good times 46 bad times 6 don't know 12. The state government faces a budget deficit of up to $12 billion in the next year. Which would you most prefer as a way to balance the state budget: (rotate a, b, c) (a) Reduce spending and avoid tax increases; (b) Increase taxes and avoid spending cuts; (c) Adopt a mix of spending cuts and tax increases? 53% reduce spending and avoid tax increases 10 increase taxes and avoid spending cuts 32 mix of spending cuts and tax increases 2 none of the above 3 don’t know 13. A measure is proposed for the November 2002 ballot which would raise the state sales tax from 6 percent to 6¼ percent. The goal of the measure is to increase funding for police, fire, and medical agencies by about one billion dollars per year as part of an effort to increase terrorism readiness. If an election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? (if asked: Local sales tax may make your total sales tax higher than the state sales tax.) 60% yes 35 no 5 don’t know 14. We have some questions about kindergarten through 12th grade public schools in California. Where do you think California currently ranks in per pupil spending? Compared to other states, is California’s spending near the top, above average, average, below average, or near the bottom? 6% near the top 9 above average 24 average 28 below average 20 near the bottom 13 don’t know 15. Where do you think California ranks in student test scores for K-12 public schools? Compared to other states, are California’s student test scores currently near the top, above average, average, below average, or near the bottom? 2% near the top 6 above average 29 average 39 below average 16 near the bottom 8 don’t know 16. Do you think students should or should not have to pass statewide tests before they can graduate from high school, even if they have passing grades in their classes? When I say statewide tests, I mean a test of knowledge and skills given to all high school students in your state. 17. Do you think students should or should not have to pass statewide tests in reading and math before they can be promoted, for example, from fourth to fifth grade, even if they have passing grades in their classes? 76% should 22 should not 2 don't know 18. On another topic, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling his job as president? 80% approve 17 disapprove 3 don’t know 19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling the issue of terrorism and security? 85% approve 13 disapprove 2 don't know 20. How much of a problem is terrorism and security in California today? Is it a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem? 25% big problem 44 somewhat of a problem 29 not much of a problem 2 don't know 21. How would you rate the job the government is doing in building defenses at home to prevent future terrorist attacks? Would you say the government is doing an excellent, good, only fair, or poor job? 9% excellent 46 good 31 fair 10 poor 4 don’t know 22. How worried are you that you or someone in your family will be the victim of a terrorist attack – very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not at all worried? 8% very worried 27 somewhat worried 37 not too worried 27 not at all worried 1 don’t know 74% should 23 should not 3 don't know - 24 - 23. Which concerns you more right now – that the government will fail to enact strong anti-terrorism laws, or that the government will enact new antiterrorism laws which excessively restrict the average person’s civil liberties? 37% government will fail to enact laws 51 government will restrict civil liberties 3 other answer (volunteered) 9 don’t know 24. In order to reduce the threat of terrorism, would you be willing or not willing to allow government agencies to monitor the telephone calls and e-mail of ordinary Americans on a regular basis? 35% willing 62 not willing 3 don’t know 25. In efforts to reduce the threat of terrorism, do you think the government is currently doing too much, too little, or the right amount on U.S. airport security? 8% too much 39 too little 49 right amount 1 don’t use airports/haven’t flown lately 3 don’t know 26. On another topic, do you favor or oppose having the federal government issue voluntary identification cards for U.S. citizens, which would be linked to a federal database containing detailed personal information on the cardholders? 55% favor 41 oppose 4 don’t know 27. Do you favor or oppose having the federal government issue mandatory identification cards for noncitizens entering the United States, which would be linked to a federal database containing detailed personal information on the cardholders? 82% favor 15 oppose 3 don’t know 28. On another topic, people have different ideas about the government in Washington. These ideas don't refer to Democrats or Republicans in particular, but just to government in general. How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right – just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time? 7% just about always 39 most of the time 52 some of the time 1 none of the time (code, don't read) 1 don’t know 29. Do you think that the people in government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes, waste some of it, or don't waste very much of it? 54% a lot 39 some 5 don’t waste very much 2 don’t know 30. Would you say the government is pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves or that it is run for the benefit of all of the people? 58% few big interests 34 benefit of all the people 8 don’t know 31. On another topic, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain you are registered to vote? (if yes: Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or as an independent?) 35% yes, Democrat (skip to q. 34) 27 yes, Republican (skip to q. 33) 4 yes, other party (skip to q. 34) 14 yes, independent (ask q. 32) 20 no, not registered (skip to q. 34) [Responses recorded for questions 32-40 are from likely voters only. All other responses are from all adults.] 32. (Independents only) California voters like yourself will be able to choose between voting in the Republican primary and the Democratic primary in March 2002. Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or neither? 18% Republican primary (ask q. 33) 20 Democratic primary (skip to q. 34) 42 neither (skip to q. 34) 20 don’t know (skip to q. 34) 33. (GOP primary voters only) If the Republican primary election for governor were being held today, and these were the candidates, whom would you vote for? (rotate names, then ask “or someone else?”) 41% Richard Riordan 13 Bill Jones 4 William E. Simon 42 other/don’t know If these were the candidates in the November 2002 governor’s election ... (rotate questions 34 to 36) 34. Would you vote for … (rotate names) 42% Gray Davis, a Democrat 31 Bill Jones, a Republican 27 other/don’t know - 25 - 35. Would you vote for … (rotate names) 37% Gray Davis, a Democrat 41 Richard Riordan, a Republican 22 other/don’t know 36. Would you vote for … (rotate names) 42% Gray Davis, a Democrat 29 William E. Simon, a Republican 29 other/don’t know 37. How much do you blame Governor Davis for the state government’s budget deficit – a lot, some, very little, or not at all? 28% a lot 43 some 19 very little 8 not at all 2 don’t know 38. How much do you blame Governor Davis for California’s electricity problems – a lot, some, very little, or not at all? 38% a lot 31 some 18 very little 11 not at all 2 don’t know 39. On another topic, Proposition 45 on the March 2002 ballot – the “Legislative Term Limits, Local Voter Petitions" initiative – allows voters to submit petition signatures to permit their incumbent legislator to run for re-election and serve a maximum of four years beyond the terms provided for in the constitution if a majority of voters approves. The fiscal impact includes unknown county costs and potentially up to several hundreds of thousands of dollars biennially statewide. If an election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 45? 31% yes 61 no 8 don’t know 40. What if your state legislators were allowed to serve up to four years beyond the current term limits of three two-year terms in the state assembly and two four-year terms in the state senate? Would they be more effective or less effective in representing your area, or would there be no difference? 31% more effective 23 less effective 40 no difference 6 don’t know 41. People have different ideas about the state government in Sacramento. How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Sacramento to do what is right – just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time? 5% just about always 42 most of the time 49 some of the time 1 none of the time (code, don't read) 3 don’t know 42. Do you think that the people in state government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes, waste some of it, or don't waste very much of it? 38% a lot 52 some 7 don’t waste very much 3 don’t know 43. Would you say the state government is pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves or that it is run for the benefit of all of the people? 54% few big interests 38 benefit of all the people 8 don’t know 44. On another topic, would you consider yourself to be politically very liberal, somewhat liberal, middleof-the-road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative? 9% very liberal 22 somewhat liberal 33 middle-of-the-road 27 somewhat conservative 9 very conservative 45. Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics – a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 18% great deal 46 fair amount 29 only a little 7 none 46. How often would you say you vote – always, nearly always, part of the time, seldom, or never? 50% always 22 nearly always 10 part of the time 6 seldom 12 never - 26 - I will read a list of some recent news stories covered by news organizations. As I read each one, tell me if you followed this news story very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely. (rotate q. 47 to 49) 47. News about the terrorism attacks on the United States. 66% very closely 27 fairly closely 5 not too closely 2 not at all closely 48. News about the stock market and U.S. economy. 30% very closely 36 fairly closely 20 not too closely 14 not at all closely 49. News about candidates for the 2002 California governor’s election. 9% very closely 29 fairly closely 34 not too closely 28 not at all closely 50. On another topic, do you ever use a computer at home, at work, or at school? (if yes: Do you do this often or only sometimes?) 62% yes, often (ask q. 51) 16 yes, sometimes (ask q. 51) 22 no (skip to q. 56) 51. Do you ever go online to access the Internet or World Wide Web or to send or receive email? (if yes: Do you do this often or only sometimes?) 54% yes, often (ask q. 52) 18 yes, sometimes (ask q. 52) 6 no (skip to q. 56) 22 don’t know (skip to q. 56) 52. In the past few months, did you buy Christmas or holiday gifts over the Internet? (if yes: Did you do this often, or only sometimes?) 9% yes, often 16 yes, sometimes 47 no 28 don’t know 53. This year, how often do you expect to make purchases over the Internet – a lot, some, very little, or not at all? 6% a lot 21 some 23 very little 22 not at all 28 don’t know 54. In the past few months, did you go on line to get news and information about the terrorist attacks on the United States? (if yes: Did you do this often or only sometimes?) 23% yes, often 23 yes, sometimes 26 no 28 don’t know 55. In the past few months, did you go on line to get news and information about the stock market and U.S. economy? (if yes: Did you do this often or only sometimes?) 20% yes, often 17 yes, sometimes 35 no 28 don’t know [56-63: demographic questions] - 27 - PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Advisory Committee Angela Blackwell President Policy Link Paul Brest President The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Mollyann Brodie Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley Dennis A. Collins President The James Irvine Foundation Matt Fong Chairman Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation Advisory Committee William Hauck President California Business Roundtable Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Monica Lozano President and Chief Operating Officer La Opinión Donna Lucas President NCG Porter Novelli Max Neiman Director Center for Social and Behavioral Research University of California, Riverside Dan Rosenheim News Director KPIX-TV Richard Schlosberg President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Carol Stogsdill President Stogsdill Consulting Cathy Taylor Vice President and Editorial Commentary Director Orange County Register Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center - 28 -" } ["___content":protected]=> string(102) "

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" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(111) "https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-january-2002/s_102mbs/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(8156) ["ID"]=> int(8156) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:35:20" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(3283) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(8) "S 102MBS" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(8) "s_102mbs" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(12) "S_102MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "250151" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(83684) "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government Mark Baldassare Senior Fellow and Survey Director January 2002 Public Policy Institute of California Preface The PPIC Statewide Survey consists of an ongoing series of surveys designed to provide policymakers, the media, and the general public with objective, advocacy-free information on the perceptions, opinions and public policy preferences of residents throughout the state of California. Begun in April 1998, the surveys have generated a database that includes the responses of over 46,000 Californians. This report presents the results of the twenty-third PPIC Statewide Survey. The surveys have included a number of special editions focusing on particular regions and themes: • The Central Valley (Nov. 1999, March 2001) • San Diego County (July 2000) • Orange County (Sept. 2001) • Population Growth (May 2001) • Land Use (Nov. 2001) • U.S.-Japan Relations (Sept. 2001) • The Environment (June 2000) The current survey is the eighth in a new series that will be conducted on a periodic basis throughout the 2002 election cycle. The series will focus on the social, economic, and political trends and public policy preferences underlying ballot choices in statewide races and citizens’ initiatives. This report presents the responses of 2,023 adult residents throughout the state on a wide range of issues: • The California election in 2002, including trends in likely voter preferences in the Republican gubernatorial primary in March, potential match-ups of major party candidates in the gubernatorial election in November, and support for Proposition 45 on the March ballot that calls for a reform of the state’s legislative term limits law. We also consider how voters perceive the governor’s involvement in the state’s electricity problems and budget deficit. • California policy issues, including perceptions of the most important problem for the governor and legislature to work on in 2002, trends over time in overall ratings of the governor and legislature, a report card on Governor Davis’ handling of specific policy areas, tax and spending preferences with respect to the state’s budget deficit, and trends over time in perceptions of the state’s rankings in student spending and test scores. • National policy issues, including overall approval ratings of the president; Californians’ concerns about terrorism, homeland security, and related civil liberties issues; public support for the use of identification cards for citizens and noncitizens as a way to increase homeland security; and the public’s trust in the federal government, including trends over time and current comparisons with trust in the state government. • Social and economic trends, including perceptions of the state of the state; the state’s economy; computer and Internet use over time across racial and ethnic groups, demographic groups, and regions; and Internet use for holiday shopping and news gathering. • How growing regions and groups such as the Central Valley, Latinos, and independent voters affect overall statewide trends in ballot choices and policy preferences. Copies of earlier survey reports or additional copies of this report may be ordered by e-mail (order@ppic.org) or phone (415-291-4400). The reports are also posted on the publications page of the PPIC web site (www.ppic.org). -i- - ii - Contents Preface Press Release California 2002 Election California Policy Issues National Policy Issues Social and Economic Trends Survey Methodology Survey Questions and Results Survey Advisory Committee i v 1 5 11 17 21 23 28 - iii - - iv - Press Release CALIFORNIANS AT ODDS WITH GOVERNOR OVER STATE'S MOST PRESSING PROBLEMS Californians More Worried Than Nation About Civil Liberties; State's Digital Divide Widens During Recession SAN FRANCISCO, California, January 17, 2002 — A resurgence of optimism among California residents has not translated into support for Governor Gray Davis on critical election-year issues, according to a new survey by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC). Californians are more bullish today than at any time in the past year: 48 percent say they expect good economic times in California during the next year – an 11-point jump since December. And six in 10 residents (59%) continue to believe the state is headed in the right direction. But despite this newfound optimism and a steady overall approval rating of Governor Davis (52%), the governor appears to be losing ground with state residents on their most pressing policy concerns. On all four issues that residents think are most important for the governor and state legislature to work on in 2002 – public schools, electricity, jobs and the economy, and the budget and taxes – fewer than half say they approve of his performance. Although Davis has made K-12 education his signature issue and has invested major political and financial capital in it, only 39 percent say they approve of his work on education, compared to 45 percent in January 2001 and 51 percent in January 2000. Although he has gained some ground since 2000 on the electricity crisis, just 39 percent currently approve of his handling of the issue. Forty-five percent say they approve of his handling of jobs and the economy, compared to 49 percent in 2000; and 42 percent approve of his performance on the state budget and taxes, down from 57 percent in 2000. Davis receives his best marks on the issues of terrorism and security (68%) and crime and punishment (52%). Related finding: • In the face of a looming state budget deficit, most Californians choose spending cuts (53%) or a mixture of spending cuts and tax increases (32%) as their preferred means of making up the shortfall. Only one in 10 opt for tax increases alone. Campaign Update: Riordan Steady; Term Limits Initiative Falters Two months before the March 5th primary, former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan continues to hold a sizable lead over his two opponents for the Republican nomination for governor. The current standings remain virtually unchanged from one month ago: Among likely GOP primary voters, 41 percent are inclined to vote for Riordan, 13 percent for Secretary of State Bill Jones, 4 percent for businessman William Simon, and 42 percent remain undecided. Independent voters — who under new open primary rules can choose either a Republican or Democratic ballot — are now as likely to vote in the Democratic primary (20%) as in the Republican primary (18%), a shift from last month when twice as many independents indicated they would vote Republican. Still, 42 percent of independents say they do not plan to vote in either primary. In potential match-ups, Riordan still holds a slight lead over Davis among likely voters (41% to 37%), although the number of undecided voters has increased. GOP voters remain more loyal to Riordan (73%) than Democrats are to Davis (63%). Since December, Davis has lost some of his lead in the -v- Press Release San Francisco Bay area, while Riordan has seen his lead shrink in the Southern California counties outside of the Los Angeles area and now receives the backing of far fewer Latinos. Davis currently leads in potential contests with Jones (42% to 31%) and Simon (42% to 29%). “Schools are the top priority for state voters, and the fact that only one-third of the voters approve of Davis’ handling of the issue is a big problem for him,” says PPIC Statewide Survey Director Mark Baldassare. Likely voters who approve of Davis’ performance on schools favor Davis over Riordan by a wide margin (54% to 29%), while those who disapprove of Davis on schools favor Riordan by a similar margin (50% to 26%). Related findings: • Seven in 10 likely voters say that Davis deserves a lot (38%) or some (31%) of the blame for the state’s electricity problems. A similar percentage think he deserves a lot (28%) or some (43%) of the blame for the state budget deficit. • Proposition 45 — the state ballot measure that would enable voters to allow their state legislators to extend their time in office beyond the current term limits — falls far short of majority support. Sixty-one percent of likely voters say they oppose the initiative, while 31 percent support it. Civil Liberties a Priority, But National ID’s a Possibility Although they remain anxious about terrorism, Californians are presently more afraid that government will encroach upon their civil liberties (51%) than that the government will not do enough to fight terrorism (37%). In fact, state residents express more concern about the loss of civil liberties than the nation as a whole, which is evenly divided between fear for civil liberties (43%) and a desire for government action (45%). Most Californians (62%) also say they are unwilling to allow government agencies to monitor the telephone calls and email of ordinary Americans, similar to the nation as a whole (65%). These findings are notable, given the governor’s recent proposals for wiretapping and electronic surveillance. “There doesn’t appear to be an appetite in the state at this time for proposals that could be intrusive or restrict civil liberties,” says Baldassare. However, many Californians are willing to consider national identification cards to better track the movement of non-citizens and citizens. Eighty-two percent said the federal government should issue mandatory ID cards to non-citizens entering the United States, which would be linked to a federal database containing detailed personal information on the cardholder. A smaller majority (55%) said they would support voluntary ID cards for American citizens. A national survey conducted in November found that 66 percent of Americans would support mandatory ID cards for U.S. citizens. Related findings: • Sixty percent of state residents say they would support a measure proposed for the November 2002 ballot to raise the state sales tax in order to fund increased terrorism readiness. The measure, which would increase the state’s sales tax from 6% to 6¼ %, is opposed by 35 percent of Californians. • Fifty-five percent say the government is doing an excellent (9%) or good (46%) job in building defenses at home to prevent future terrorist attacks. Despite some highly-publicized security breaches, more Californians feel the government is doing enough to protect airline passengers (49%) than feel it could do more (39%), although some (8%) believe it has already done too much. - vi - Press Release • President Bush’s approval rating on terrorism and security issues remains high (85%). • Nearly half of Californians (46%) say they trust the federal government to do what is right most or just about all of the time, up from 34 percent in October 2000. In contrast, trust in state government remains virtually unchanged at 47 percent from January 2001. Digital Divide Still a Reality California continues to lead the nation in computer use — the vast majority of residents use a computer at home, work, or school (78%), and access the Internet, World Wide Web, or email (72%). In fact, Internet use among Californians is at its highest level since PPIC first began tracking online access in 1999. Steady overall computer use among California residents, however, masks a decline in computer use among Latinos. Over the past year, Latino computer use has dropped 5 percentage points (72% to 67%), and the eight-point gap between Latinos and non-Hispanic whites last year has grown to 13 points (67% to 81%). The gap between Latinos and non-Hispanic whites in Internet use has also grown from 16 to 20 points, driven by growing Internet access among non-Hispanic whites. “The digital divide is really an economic story, so it is not entirely surprising that we see a decline in computer use among lower-income residents who may have been hit harder by the recession,” says Baldassare. Indeed, higher-income Latinos ($40,000 +) have nearly identical rates of computer and Internet use as their non-Hispanic white counterparts. Related finding: • In contrast to media reports of increased online holiday shopping, the percentage of Californians using the Internet to purchase Christmas or holiday gifts remained steady compared to one year ago (25% to 24%). Again, income is a critical factor: While 46 percent of Californians with annual household incomes greater than $80,000 used the Internet for holiday shopping, only 11 percent of those with incomes under $40,000 bought gifts online. About the Survey The purpose of the PPIC Statewide Survey is to develop an in-depth profile of the social, economic, and political forces affecting California elections and public policy preferences. PPIC will conduct large-scale public opinion surveys on a regular basis leading up to the November 2002 election. Findings of the current survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,023 California adult residents interviewed from December 26, 2001, to January 10, 2002. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish. The sampling error for the total sample is +/- 2%. The sampling error for the 1,502 registered voters is +/2.5% and for the 954 likely voters is +/- 3.5%. For more information on survey methodology, see page 21. Dr. Mark Baldassare is a senior fellow at PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder and director of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has conducted since 1998. PPIC is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to objective, nonpartisan research on economic, social, and political issues that affect Californians. The Institute was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. David W. Lyon is President and CEO of PPIC. This report will appear on PPIC’s website (www.ppic.org) on January 17. ### - vii - Riordan Jones Simon Other/Don't know 42% 41% Davis Riordan Other/Don't know 22% 37% 4% 13% 41% If the Republican primary election for governor were held today and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? Percent yes 80 76% 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Non-Hispanic Whites 56% Latinos Do you ever go on-line to access the Internet or World Wide Web or to send or receive email? Government w ill fail to enact law s Government w ill restrict civil liberties Other answ er/Don't know 12% 37% If these were the candidates in the November 2002 governor’s election, would you vote for … ? Reduce spending Mix 5% Increase taxes Other/Don't know 32% 53% 10% Considering a budget deficit of up to $12 billion, how would you most prefer to balance the state budget? Economy Electricity 14% 14% 51% Which concerns you more – that the government will fail to enact strong anti-terrorism laws or that the government will enact anti- terrorism laws that will excessively restrict civil liberties? Education 20% 0 10 20 30 Top three issues facing the governor and legislature in 2002 California 2002 Election Republican Primary for Governor Richard Riordan continues to hold a large lead over the other major candidates for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. With less than two months of campaigning left before the March 5th primary, about four in 10 likely voters in the GOP primary are either undecided (37%) or name candidates other than the top three contenders (5%). Currently, 41 percent of likely voters opt for Riordan, 13 percent for Bill Jones, and 4 percent for William Simon. The results in this survey are virtually the same as they were in a PPIC Statewide Survey conducted one month ago. At this stage, about four in 10 independent voters plan to take advantage of the “open” primary rules allowing them to choose between Republican and Democratic ballots in the primary, with equal numbers choosing to vote Republican and Democratic. Still, the impact on the independent vote in the GOP primary is minimal, since 7 percent of the likely voters in the GOP primary are independent voters and 93 percent are Republicans. In the last month, independent voters have become more interested in voting in the Democratic rather than the GOP primary. Riordan has a solid edge over his rivals among men and women and across all age, education, and income categories. He also enjoys more support than the other two candidates combined among the moderate, somewhat conservative, and very conservative voters in the GOP primary. There are, however, regional differences: Jones leads Riordan and Simon in the Central Valley (33% to 16% to 5%), while Riordan leads the other candidates by substantial margins elsewhere in the state. "If the March 2002 primary election for California Governor were held today, who would you vote for?" Richard Riordan Bill Jones William E. Simon Other/ Don't know GOP Primary (likely voters) Dec 01 Jan 02 37% 41% 13 13 54 45 42 "Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or neither?" Republican Democrat Neither Don't know Independents (likely voters) Dec 01 Jan 02 23% 18% 11 20 40 42 26 20 -1- California 2002 Election Leading Candidates in Governor’s Race Only four in 10 voters support the reelection bid of Governor Davis – regardless of his GOP opponent. Currently, Richard Riordan represents Davis' toughest challenge, with the two possible candidates in a virtual tie (41% to 37%) among likely voters. Davis leads in a potential matchup with Jones by 11 points (42% to 31%) and in a possible race with Simon by 13 points (42% to 29%). Similar trends were evident in the December survey, with the most noticeable change being an increase in the number of undecided voters. Davis and Riordan are in a tight race because GOP voters are more loyal to Riordan than Democratic voters are to Davis, while independent voters are dividing their support between Davis and Riordan. The two candidates are in a close contest in the Democratic-leaning Los Angeles region, while Davis leads Riordan in the San Francisco Bay area, and Riordan leads Davis elsewhere in the state. Riordan leads Davis among non-Hispanic whites (47% to 30%), while Davis has a solid edge over Riordan among Latino voters (60% to 23%). Currently, the “gender gap” is small in this potential matchup: Davis has a slight edge over Riordan among women (41% to 36%), while men favor Riordan over Davis (47% to 34%). Davis is currently leading in potential matchups with GOP candidates Simon and Jones because the candidates have similar levels of support among voters within their own parties, while independent voters express a preference for Davis. Davis has large leads over both Jones and Simon in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay area. Davis is running even with Simon and Jones among non-Hispanic whites, has strong support among Latinos, and is the solid favorite among women. "If these were the candidates in the November 2002 governor’s election, would you vote for …" (1) (2) (3) Likely Voters Likely Voters Likely Voters Gray Davis Richard Riordan Other/Don't know 37% 41 22 Gray Davis Bill Jones Other/Don't know 42% 31 27 Gray Davis William E. Simon Other/Don’t know 42% 29 29 Likely Voters Party Dem Other Central Rep Voters Valley Gray Davis 63% 9% 32% 34% (1) Richard Riordan 17 73 36 48 Other/Don't know 20 18 32 18 Gray Davis (2) Bill Jones Other/Don't know 66% 8 26 15% 64 21 38% 22 40 32% 46 22 Gray Davis (3) William E. Simon Other/Don’t know 68% 6 26 15% 61 24 34% 23 43 35% 39 26 Region SF Bay Area 40% 29 31 42% 23 35 42% 24 34 Los Angeles 41% 45 14 49% 25 26 48% 24 28 Other Southern California 34% 43 23 39% 35 26 40% 33 27 Latino 60% 23 17 58% 17 25 61% 14 25 -2- California 2002 Election Image of Governor Davis The three GOP candidates for governor have remained united thus far on one theme in the 2002 primary campaign – that Governor Davis is responsible for the state’s most pressing problems. Many voters apparently agree with this message, holding the governor at least partly responsible for the state’s ongoing problems with electricity and a growing budget deficit. In fact, seven in 10 likely voters say that Davis deserves a lot (38%) or some (31%) of the blame for the state’s electricity problems. There are strong partisan differences, with 22 percent of Democrats placing a lot of the responsibility on Davis for this problem, compared to a solid majority of Republicans (57%) and more than one in three independent voters (37%). Seven in 10 likely voters believe that Davis is at least partly responsible for the state’s budget deficit, though a smaller percentage says he is to blame “a lot” (28%), while 43 percent say he deserves some of the blame. Nearly half of Republicans (47%) believe that Davis shares a lot of the blame for the state deficit, compared to one in four independent voters (26%) and 13 percent of Democrats. Those who blame Davis “a lot” for the electricity problems and budget deficit are much more likely to support Riordan, Jones, and Simon in their matchups against Davis than are those who believe that he has little or no responsibility for these problems. A lot Some Very little None Don't know "How much do you blame Governor Davis for California’s electricity problems – a lot, some, very little, or not at all?" Likely Voters All Likely Voters 38% 31 18 11 2 Democrat 22% 34 26 15 3 Party Republican 57% 27 10 5 1 Other 37% 32 15 15 1 Latino 24% 37 27 10 2 "How much do you blame Governor Davis for the state government’s budget deficit – a lot, some, very little, or not at all?” All Likely Voters A lot Some Very little None Don't know 28% 43 19 8 2 Democrat 13% 45 26 13 3 Likely Voters Party Republican 47% 40 10 2 1 Other 26% 46 20 6 2 Latino 13% 55 18 13 1 -3- California 2002 Election Proposition 45: Legislative Term Limits Initiative Proposition 45 – the citizen’s initiative that would enable voters to let their incumbent legislators extend their time in office beyond the current term limits – falls far short of majority support. There has been a dramatic decline in support since the last survey, perhaps resulting from the fact that this survey changed its question to correspond to a change in the fiscal impact wording on the official ballot label. Currently, only three in 10 voters support this measure as it will appear on the March ballot. Six in 10 voters would vote no on this proposition, with strong opposition across all political groups and regions. Another factor limiting support for this initiative is the fact that only three in 10 voters think that state legislators would be “more effective” in representing their area if they could extend their stay in office, as Proposition 45 would allow. Majority support (56%) for Proposition 45 is achieved only among those voters who believe that state legislators would be more effective if they were allowed to serve beyond their current limits. "Proposition 45 on the March 2002 ballot – the 'Legislative Term Limits, Local Voter Petitions' initiative – allows voters to submit petition signatures to permit their incumbent legislator to run for re-election and serve a maximum of four years beyond the terms provided for in the constitution if a majority of voters approves. The fiscal impact includes unknown county costs potentially up to several hundreds of thousands of dollars biennially statewide. If an election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 45?" Likely Voters Dec 01 Jan 02* Yes 46% 31% No 45 61 Don’t know 98 *The language used in this survey reflects the updated fiscal impact analysis on the official ballot label. Prior to the December survey, fiscal impacts were described as "unknown, probably minor." Yes No Don't know Dem 33% 59 8 Party Rep 28% 65 7 Other Voters 32% 61 7 Likely Voters Region Central Valley 29% 62 9 SF Bay Area 38% 56 6 Los Angeles 31% 64 5 Other Southern California 27% 64 9 Latino 31% 60 9 "What if your current state legislators were allowed to serve up to four years beyond the current term limits of three two-year terms in the state assembly and two four-year terms in the state senate? Would they be more effective or less effective in representing your area, or would there be no difference?" More effective Less effective No difference Don’t know Likely Voters 31% 23 40 6 -4- California Policy Issues Overall Job Performance Ratings for State Officials Governor Davis’ job performance rating has held steady in all of our surveys since the September 11th terrorist attacks, with 52 percent of Californians currently saying they approve of the job he is doing in office. This is virtually the same rating as in November (54%) and December (51%). Although his approval rating is higher than in May (46%) and July (44%), it is considerably lower than it was this time last year (62%). Davis’ overall approval rating is twice as high among Democrats (64%) as it is among Republicans (32%), while half of independent and other voters approve of the way he is handling his job as governor. A greater percentage of Latinos (70%) than non-Hispanic whites (44%) approve of the governor’s overall performance in office. Likely voters offer a more mixed overall rating: Fewer than half (46%) approve of Davis’ job performance, while 49 percent disapprove. Among the likely voters who approve of Davis’ performance overall in office, most would support him in a governor’s race involving Riordan (67% to 14%), while among those who disapprove of his performance in office, most support Riordan over Davis (68% to 10%). About half of the state's residents (49%) approve of the legislature’s performance. This rating is similar to the ratings from last December (53%) and July (45%) but is 9 points lower than it was a year ago (58%). A larger percentage of Democrats (55%) than Republicans (41%) approves of the job the Democratcontrolled state legislature is doing, while half of independent and other voters approve of the legislature's job performance. The legislature’s ratings are higher among Latinos than among nonHispanic whites (59% to 45%). Among likely voters, 46 percent approve and 43 percent disapprove of the job that the legislature is doing. Proposition 45, the effort to extend legislative term limits, is currently opposed by both those who approve of the legislature’s performance (59%) and those who disapprove of the job it is doing (65%). Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Davis is handling his job as governor of California? Approve Disapprove Don’t know Do you approve or disapprove of the job the California legislature is doing at this time? Approve Disapprove Don’t know Sep 00 Oct 00 Jan 01 May 01 Jul 01 Nov 01 Dec 01 Jan 02 66% 24 10 60% 28 12 62% 24 14 46% 41 13 44% 45 11 54% 36 10 51% 37 12 52% 38 10 56% 31 13 – – – 58% 27 15 – – – 45% 37 18 – – – 53% 29 18 49% 35 16 -5- California Policy Issues Governor’s Report Card Californians are giving a mixed report card to their governor as he seeks reelection. When they are asked to evaluate his performance on specific issues, approval ratings range from 68 percent to 39 percent on seven different topics. Two in three residents approve of his handling of terrorism and security issues, while a slight majority approves of the way he is managing crime and punishment issues. He fares less well in other key areas: 45 percent approve of the way the governor is handling jobs and the economy and 42 percent approve of his management of the state budget and taxes. Just under four in 10 Californians approve of the governor’s efforts in three other crucial areas: public schools, transportation and traffic, and the state’s electricity problem (39% each). Since the January 2000 survey, the governor’s approval ratings on crime and punishment issues and jobs and the economy have remained relatively consistent. However, there have been large declines in his ratings for handling the state budget and taxes (57% to 42%), schools (51% to 39%), and transportation and traffic congestion (46% to 39%). The one area in which Davis’ approval rating has improved is his handling of the state’s electricity problem (28% to 39%); however, 54 percent of the state’s residents disapprove of the job that he is doing in this area. More than six in 10 residents have approved of the governor’s handling of terrorism and security issues in all three surveys that we have conducted since September 11th. In fact, the governor's ratings on this issue have improved slightly over time, increasing from 62 percent in November to 66 percent in December to 68 percent in this survey. Democrats are most approving of the job that Davis is doing on terrorism and security (75%), crime and punishment (57%), and jobs and the economy (51%). Fewer than half of the Democrats approve of the job the governor is doing on the budget and taxes (48%), the electricity situation (46%), traffic congestion (44%), and schools (38%). Democrats are as likely to approve as to disapprove of Davis’ performance on schools (38% to 42%), despite the significance that the governor has placed on improving the schools. More than half of Republicans (56%) approve of Davis’ performance on terrorism and security issues. By comparison, Davis receives lower approval ratings among Republicans for crime and punishment (43%), jobs and the economy (35%), schools (32%), traffic congestion (27%), the state budget and taxes (27%), and the electricity problem (24%). For the most part, voters outside of the two major parties are similar to all Californians in most of their ratings of the governor’s performance on specific issues: 69 percent approve of his performance on terrorism and security issues and half approve of his performance on crime and punishment (51%), while fewer than half approve of his handling of jobs and the economy (46%), schools (45%), the state budget and taxes (45%), the electricity problem (42%), and traffic congestion (41%). Likely voters assessment of Davis is as follows: a majority approves of his performance on terrorism and security issues (66%), and crime and punishment (52%), while fewer than half approve of his handling of jobs and the economy (43%), the state budget and taxes (39%), traffic congestion (35%), schools (34%), and the electricity problem (32%). When Governor Davis was elected in 1998, he said that his most important priority would be schools. How do voters assessments of his performance on this issue influence their support for his reelection? In a potential matchup with the current GOP frontrunner, likely voters who approve of Davis’ performance on schools favor Davis over Riordan by a wide margin (54% to 29%), while those who disapprove of Davis’ performance on schools favor Riordan over Davis by a similarly large margin (50% to 26%). -6- California Policy Issues "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor Davis is handling …" 2000 2001 2002 … terrorism and security?* Approve – – 68% Disapprove – – 20 Don’t know – – 12 … crime and punishment?* Approve Disapprove 55% 24 54% 27 52% 29 Don’t know 21 19 19 … jobs and the economy? Approve 49% – 45% Disapprove 29 – 39 Don’t know 22 – 16 … the state budget and taxes? Approve 57% 53% 42% Disapprove 23 31 46 Don’t know 20 16 12 … the state’s K-12 public education system? Approve Disapprove Don’t know 51% 28 21 45% 32 23 39% 40 21 … the electricity problem? Approve 28% 24% 39% Disapprove 36 62 54 Don’t know 36 14 7 … transportation and traffic congestion? Approve Disapprove Don’t know 46% 27 27 41% 39 20 39% 45 16 Note: Question on jobs and the economy for 2000 asked in May 2000; question on electricity for 2000 asked in September 2000; all other questions asked in January surveys. *2002 crime and terrorism ratings are based on a split-sample of 1,000 respondents. -7- California Policy Issues Most Important Issue for 2002 Asked which single issue should be the top priority for the governor and state legislature this year, Californians once again placed public schools (20%) at the top of the list, followed by electricity prices and deregulation, and jobs and the economy (14% each). No other issue is mentioned by more than one in 10 residents. Despite a looming $12 billion state budget deficit, only 7 percent mentioned this as their top priority for state government action. Interestingly, only 4 percent mentioned terrorism and security issues as the number one priority for the governor and state legislature in 2002. Schools and electricity prices are mentioned less than they were a year ago, while references to jobs and the economy have risen 10 points. Looking back to the January 1999 survey – conducted soon after Davis was elected governor – fewer people today are mentioning the schools, and more are concerned about the economy. Concern about jobs and the economy is greater in the San Francisco Bay area (19%) than elsewhere. Latinos are more likely than non-Hispanic whites to mention either the economy (18% to 12%) or terrorism and security (9% to 2%) as the most pressing issue for legislative action. Non-Hispanic whites are more likely than Latinos to mention energy as the top issue (17% to 10%). Among likely voters, 23 percent mention schools, 16 percent name electricity problems, and 14 percent believe that the economy is the most important issue. Currently, Riordan is the favorite in the GOP primary for likely voters who identify schools, electricity, or the economy as their most important issue. Looking at a potential matchup in the November election between the governor and the current GOP frontrunner, Davis is favored over Riordan among those who name schools (43% to 32%) and the economy (45% to 38%) as most important to them, while Riordan is favored over Davis (55% to 24%) for those who name electricity as the most important issue for the governor and state legislature to work on in 2002. "Which one issue facing California today do you think is most important for the governor and state legislature to work on in 2002?" All Adults Public schools Electricity prices, deregulation Jobs, the economy Budget and taxes Environment, land use, and growth Terrorism and security Immigration, illegal immigration Crime, gangs Transportation and traffic congestion Poverty, homelessness Health care, HMO reform Other issues Don't know 1999 36% – 5 6 3 – 5 7 2 5 3 10 18 2000 28% – 5 6 5 – 8 7 3 4 5 12 17 2001 26% 25 4 4 4 – 4 3 2 2 4 10 12 2002 20% 14 14 7 6 4 4 3 3 3 2 10 10 Note: Question asked in January surveys, except for the year 2000, when it was asked in December 1999. -8- California Policy Issues State Budget and Taxes In the face of a looming state budget deficit, most Californians choose spending cuts (53%) or a mixture of spending cuts and tax increases (32%) as their preferred means of making up the shortfall. Only one in 10 opt for tax increases alone as their preferred solution for the expected $12 billion deficit. Spending cuts are the top choice among all political parties, although Republicans are more supportive than Democrats of this approach (67% to 46%). A sizeable number of Democrats (39%) and independent and other voters (36%) favor a mixture of spending cuts and tax increases. Latinos and non-Hispanic whites are equally likely to favor balancing the budget through reductions in state spending (50% to 54%) or a mixture of cuts and new taxes (30% to 34%). Californians show initial support for a proposed ballot measure to raise the state sales tax to fund increased terrorism readiness, with 60 percent saying they would vote yes and 35 percent opposed. Among likely voters, support currently stands at 58 percent. This proposed measure, which would raise the state’s sales tax from 6 to 6¼ percent, has favorable support among all political parties, including 68 percent of Democrats and 51 percent of Republicans. Latinos are more likely than non-Hispanic whites to favor this tax increase measure (68% to 59%). The state sales tax increase to pay for increased funding for police, fire, and emergency services is favored equally in all regions of the state and currently has at least majority support among all demographic groups. "The state government faces a budget deficit up to $12 billion in the next year. Which would you most prefer as a way to balance the state budget?" Reduce spending and avoid tax increases Increase taxes and avoid spending cuts Mix of spending cuts and tax increases None of the above (volunteered) Don’t know All Adults 53% 10 32 2 3 Democrat 46% 12 39 1 2 Party Registration Republican Other Voters 67% 49% 6 11 24 36 22 12 Not Registered to Vote Latino 52% 50% 11 15 29 30 21 64 "A measure is proposed for the November 2002 ballot which would raise the state sales tax from 6% to 6¼%. The goal of the measure is to increase funding for police, fire, and medical agencies by about $1 billion per year as part of an effort to increase terrorism readiness. If an election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure?" Yes No Don’t know All Adults 60% 35 5 Democrat 68% 30 2 Party Registration Republican 51% 44 5 Other Voters 57% 40 3 Not Registered to Vote 62% 29 9 Latino 68% 26 7 -9- California Policy Issues Public Schools: Per-Pupil Spending and Student Testing Californians’ opinions of public school funding and student testing have changed little over time, even as the state government has invested major attention in both areas. Nearly half of all residents still believe that per-pupil spending, compared to other states, is below average (28%) or near the bottom (20%). Only 15 percent think that funding is above the national average, while one in four believes it is about average. The majority of residents also believe that California's test scores are below average (39%) or near the bottom (16%), while fewer than one in 10 think they are above the national average and 29 percent think they are about average. How do these opinions compare with actual state rankings on these measures? According to a recently released report (Education Week: "Quality Counts 2002"), California ranks near the bottom among all states in per-pupil spending and student achievement. Within the state, parents with children in the public schools are more likely than others to think the state’s spending is below the national average (51% to 42%) but are slightly less inclined than others to think student test scores are lower than the national average (50% to 56%). Latinos are less likely than non-Hispanic whites to think the state’s spending on education is below average or near the bottom (40% to 51%) and much less likely to believe that California’s student test scores are sub-par (40% to 61%). Californians are similar to Americans nationwide in expressing solid support for the idea of having students pass statewide tests in order to graduate from high school (74%) or before they are promoted in elementary school grades (76%). Californians with children in the public schools express similar levels of support. Those who think California student test scores are above average, the same, or below average compared to other states all express strong support for statewide tests. Where do you think California ranks in spending per pupil? Compared to other states, is California's spending ... Near the top Above average Average Below average Near the bottom Don't know Where do you think California ranks in student test scores for K-12 public schools? Compared to other states, are California's student test scores ... Near the top Above average Average Below average Near the bottom Don't know All Adults Apr 98 Feb 00 Jan 02 5% 9 28 27 20 11 6% 10 24 29 22 9 6% 9 24 28 20 13 2% – 8– 32 – 39 – 14 – 5– 2% 6 29 39 16 8 - 10 - National Policy Issues President’s Ratings Support for President George W. Bush remains strong in California since September 11th: 80 percent approve of the overall job he is doing in office. The president’s approval ratings were the same in the PPIC Statewide Surveys in November (80%) and December (79%). Californians’ attitudes are consistent with national findings: In a survey conducted by CNN/Time in December 2001, 82 percent of Americans approved of the president’s performance in office. Most Republicans (94%) as well as seven in ten Democrats and independent voters approve of the job the president is doing. Bush has even more support among Californians for his handling of terrorism and security, with an 85 percent approval rating. The president’s approval ratings for this issue were similar in our PPIC Statewide surveys in November (83%) and December (85%). The patterns of voter support in the current survey are similar to those noted above, but with smaller partisan differences in the ratings on terrorism and security issues. Residents across all regions of the state and in all demographic groups give the president high approval ratings for his overall job performance and his handling of terrorism and security. For example, there is almost no difference between Latinos and non-Hispanic whites in either overall approval of Bush's performance or specific approval of the way he is handling the issue of terrorism and security. Eight in 10 likely voters approve of the overall job Bush is doing as president. Of the likely voters who approve of Bush’s performance, 49 percent would vote for Riordan and 30 percent would vote for Davis if they face each other in November 2002. GOP candidates Simon and Jones are tied with Davis among those who approve of the president’s performance. Party Registration Do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Approve Disapprove Don’t know Do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling the issue of terrorism and security? Approve Disapprove Don’t know All Adults Democrat 80% 17 3 70% 25 5 85% 13 2 81% 17 2 Republican 94% 5 1 94% 4 2 Other Voters 74% 24 2 79% 19 2 Not Registered to Vote Latino 82% 13 5 82% 15 3 86% 12 2 88% 10 2 - 11 - National Policy Issues Terrorism and Security Issues Seven in 10 Californians rate terrorism and security as either a big problem (25%) or somewhat of a problem (44%) in the state today. Yet, only one in three Californians say that are very worried or somewhat that they or someone in their family will be the victim of a terrorist attack. Most Californians are satisfied with the government’s efforts to thwart future terrorist attacks. More than half of the state's residents (55%) believe that the government is doing an excellent or good job in building defenses at home. In a national survey by the Pew Research Center in November 2001, 62 percent said that the government is doing an excellent or good job in building defenses at home (down from 69 percent in October). Latinos (65%) are more likely than non-Hispanic whites (54%) to say that the government is doing an excellent or good job in building defenses at home. Those with less education and lower income are similarly positive about the government’s efforts in this realm. Despite highly-publicized security breaches, more Californians feel the government is doing enough to protect airline passengers (49%) than feel it could do more (39%), while relatively few residents (8%) believe it has already done too much. There are no partisan differences, except that those who are not registered to vote are more satisfied than others with current government efforts. Latinos are also more likely than non-Hispanic whites to say that the government is doing as much as it should (60% to 45%). In general, those with less education and lower incomes are more likely to feel the government’s efforts to increase airport security have been adequate. "How would you rate the job the government is doing in building defenses at home to prevent future terrorist attacks? Would you say the government is doing an excellent, good, only fair, or poor job?" Excellent Good Fair Poor Don’t know All Adults 9% 46 31 10 4 Democrat 8% 43 33 11 5 Party Registration Republican 9% 47 32 8 4 Other Voters 9% 40 36 12 3 Not Registered to Vote 13% 53 23 7 4 Latino 16% 49 24 9 2 "In efforts to reduce the threat of terrorism, do you think the government is now doing too much, too little, or the right amount on U.S. airport security?" Too much Too little Right amount Don’t use airports/haven’t flown lately (volunteered) Don’t know All Adults 8% 39 49 1 3 Democrat 6% 43 48 1 2 Party Registration Republican 5% 43 48 Other Voters 9% 40 47 22 22 Not Registered to Vote 9% 29 58 Latino 9% 28 60 11 32 - 12 - National Policy Issues Civil Liberties and Security Issues Despite the perception that terrorism is a problem in the state, Californians are more afraid that the government will encroach upon their civil liberties (51%) than that the government will not do enough to fight terrorism (37%). In fact, a higher percentage of Californians are concerned about civil liberties than are Americans at large, who were evenly divided between concern about civil liberties and desire for government action in a December CBS/New York Times poll (43% to 45%). Democrats (55%) and voters outside of the major parties (56%) are more likely than Republicans (40%) to say they are more concerned about encroachment on civil liberties than enacting strong laws. Latinos are more concerned than non-Hispanic whites about such infringement (57% to 47%). Concern about civil liberties runs as high among likely voters (52%) as among Californians as a whole (51%). The percentage of Californians that fear that the government will not pass strong laws to fight terrorism increases with income and age. Californians also reject a proposal that government agencies be allowed to monitor the email and telephone calls of ordinary Americans. Sixty-two percent oppose this idea – a number very close to the 65 percent of Americans who opposed the same proposal in a December CBS/New York Times poll. Most voters across political groups are not in favor of allowing government agencies to monitor email and telephone calls. Latinos, on the other hand, show surprising support for this proposal (48%), given their concern about infringement of civil liberties (57%). "Which concerns you more right now – that the government will fail to enact strong anti-terrorism laws or that the government will enact new anti-terrorism laws which excessively restrict the average person’s civil liberties?" Government will fail to enact laws Government will restrict civil liberties Other answer Don’t know All Adults 37% 51 3 9 Democrat 35% 55 3 7 Party Registration Republican 47% Other Voters 34% 40 56 32 10 8 Not Registered to Vote Latino 32% 30% 55 57 12 12 11 "In order to reduce the threat of terrorism, would you be willing to allow government agencies to monitor the telephone calls and email of ordinary Americans on a regular basis?" Willing Not willing Don’t know All Adults 35% 62 3 Democrat 32% 65 3 Party Registration Republican 40% 58 2 Other Voters 31% 67 2 Not Registered to Vote 41% 56 3 Latino 48% 49 3 - 13 - National Policy Issues National Identification Cards In response to the events of September 11th, some have proposed the idea of issuing identification cards to better track the movement of individuals. Support for this idea varies considerably, depending on whether the cards are meant for citizens or non-citizens. Eighty-two percent of respondents said they would be willing to require any non-citizen entering the United States to carry an identification card, but a much lower 55 percent said they would favor such cards for citizens, even if they were voluntary. In a national survey by ABC/Washington Post conducted in early November, 66 percent of Americans said they favored mandatory national identification cards for U.S. citizens. Similar percentages of Democrats (54%), Republicans (54%), and independents (51%) support identification cards for citizens, while a higher percentage of Republicans (92%) than Democrats (80%) or independents (78%) support cards for non-citizens. Identification cards for citizens receive more support among Latinos than among non-Hispanic whites (65% to 53%), while slightly fewer Latinos than nonHispanic whites favor issuing identification cards for non-citizens (77% to 85%). Citizen identification cards are favored by a lower percentage of native-born U.S. citizens (52%) than naturalized citizens (65%) or non-citizens (70%). Identification cards for non-citizens get more support among native citizens (84%) than among naturalized citizens (79%) or non-citizens (70%). "Do you favor or oppose having the federal government issue mandatory identification cards for non-citizens entering the United States, which would be linked to a federal database containing detailed personal information on the cardholders?" Favor Oppose Don’t know All Adults 82% 15 3 Democrat 80% 17 3 Party Registration Republican 92% 7 1 Other Voters 78% 19 3 Not Registered to Vote 77% 19 4 Latino 77% 19 4 "Do you favor or oppose having the federal government issue voluntary identification cards for U.S. citizens, which would be linked to a federal database containing detailed personal information on the cardholders? Favor Oppose Don’t know All Adults 55% 41 4 Democrat 54% 42 4 Party Registration Republican 54% 43 3 Other Voters 51% 47 2 Not Registered to Vote 61% 31 8 Latino 65% 30 5 - 14 - National Policy Issues Trust in Government: Overall Leadership About half of Californians (46%) say they trust the federal government to do what is right most or just about all of the time; about the same percentage (47%) express trust in the state government. This measure of trust in the federal government has increased from 34 percent in October 2000, the last time the PPIC Statewide Survey included this question. Trust in state government, by contrast, has not changed at all since the question was last asked in the January 2001 PPIC Statewide Survey. The percentage of Californians expressing trust in the federal government is similar to the percentage of Americans (49%) who say they trust the federal government, as indicated in a CNN/Time poll in late December. Californians' increasing trust of the federal government is partly due to a partisan shift. Republicans are now more likely to trust the federal government than are Democrats (47% to 42%). In October 2000, Republicans were much less likely than Democrats to say they trusted the federal government (25% to 41%). Thus, trust has not changed among the Democrats, while it has increased among GOP voters. The change among independent voters has been relatively small – 31 percent had a high level of overall trust in October 2000, compared to 38 percent in the current survey. Democrats are more likely to trust the state government than are Republicans (51% to 43%). The results were similar in January 2001: 52 percent of Democrats and 40 percent of Republicans said they had a high level of trust in state government. The opinions of independent voters have not changed over time: In January 2001, 39 percent expressed a high level of trust in state government. "How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in [Washington/Sacramento] to do what is right?" Just about always Most of the time Only some of the time Never (volunteered) Don’t know All Adults Washington Sacramento 7% 5% 39 42 52 49 11 13 "How much of the time to you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right?" Just about always Most of the time Only some of the time Never (volunteered) Don’t know All Adults 7% 39 52 1 1 Democrat 6% 36 56 1 1 Party Registration Republican 6% 41 50 2 1 Other Voters 5% 33 60 2 0 Not Registered to Vote 10% 43 41 1 5 Latino 15% 44 38 1 2 - 15 - National Policy Issues Trust in Government: Efficiency and Responsiveness Trust in the federal government’s fiscal abilities has not changed much over time: In the current survey, 54 percent of Californians believe the federal government wastes a lot of money, compared with a similar 58 percent in January 2000. By contrast, 38 percent believe that the state government wastes a lot of money, while 47 percent stated that the state government wasted a lot of money in January 2001. Americans as a whole express opinions about the federal government similar to those of Californians: According to a CBS/New York Times survey in late October last year, 52 percent said they felt it wastes a lot of money. A greater percentage of Republicans (60%) than Democrats (55%) or independent voters (56%) believe the federal government wastes a lot, and Republicans are also more likely to feel that the state government is very wasteful (48%, compared to 32% for Democrats and 41% for independents). The differences between Latinos and non-Hispanic whites on the issue of fiscal trust are significant: 57 percent of non-Hispanic whites say the federal government wastes a lot in taxes, compared to 44 percent of Latinos. In the same vein, a higher percentage of non-Hispanic whites (41%) than Latinos (30%) think the state government is wasteful. Similarities are evident in other questions about trust in the federal and state governments: 58 percent of Californians think the federal government is “pretty much run by a few big interests” – 54 percent say the same about the state government. In the most recent prior surveys asking these questions, 64 percent thought the federal government was pretty much run by a few big interests (October 2000), and 60 percent thought this was true of the state (January 2001). "Do you think that the people in [federal/state] government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes, waste some of it, or don’t waste very much of it?" Waste a lot Waste some Don't waste much Don't know All Adults Federal State Government Government 54% 38% 39 52 57 23 "Would you say the government is pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves, or that it is run for the benefit of all the people?" Few big interests Benefit of all the people Don't know All Adults Federal State Government Government 58% 54% 34 38 88 - 16 - Social and Economic Trends Overall Mood Californians’ attitudes about the economy have improved significantly since December, with residents evenly divided today on whether they expect good times or bad times for the state’s economy over the next 12 months. (Between May and December 2001, a majority of Californians had expected bad economic times.) This increasing optimism is part of a nationwide trend: The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index is up nine points since last November. Forty-eight percent of Californians now say they expect good financial times over the next 12 months, which is similar to the rating last seen a year ago (51%). Men (53%) continue to be more optimistic than women (43%) about the state’s economy. There are no other significant differences in perceptions of the economic outlook across age, region, income, or racial groups. Fifty-nine percent of Californians believe the state is headed in the right direction. Latinos (67%) continue to be more optimistic than non-Hispanic whites (55%). Democrats (64%) and other voters (62%) are more likely than Republicans (48%) to say the state is headed in the right direction. As for regional differences, those living in Los Angeles and the rest of Southern California (61% each) are more likely than others to say that the state is headed in the right direction. Residents with household incomes between $40,000 and $80,000 are more pessimistic about whether the state is headed in the right direction than those with lower or higher incomes. Pessimism about the state of the state also increases with age. "Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?" All Adults Sep 99 Dec 99 Feb 00 Aug 00 Jan 01 May 01 Jul 01 Nov 01 Dec 01 Jan 02 Good times 72% 76% 78% 72% 51% 38% 41% 32% 37% 48% Bad times 23 19 15 21 38 56 50 59 56 46 Don't know 5 5 7 7 11 699 7 6 "Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?" Right direction Wrong direction Don't know Dec 98 63% 28 9 Sep 99 61% 34 5 Dec 99 62% 31 7 Feb 00 65% 27 8 All Adults Aug 00 62% Jan 01 62% 30 29 89 May 01 44% 48 8 Jul 01 44% 47 9 Nov 01 60% 29 11 Dec 01 58% 33 9 Jan 02 59% 32 9 - 17 - Social and Economic Trends The Digital Divide A great majority of Californians continue to use computers and the Internet. In fact, this survey finds overall Internet access among Californians at the highest level (72%) since PPIC began tracking Internet use in September 1999. Comparing our results to those of a national survey conducted by the Pew Research Center in June 2001 indicates that Californians are more likely than Americans as a whole to use computers at home, work, or school (78% versus 72%). While overall computer use among California residents is at the highest level, there was a slight decline in computer use among Latino Californians over the past year. Latino computer usage has dropped 5 percentage points (72% to 67%), with most of the decline among Latinos who “often” use computers (51% to 45%). The 8-point gap in computer use between Latinos and non-Hispanic whites last year has now grown to 13 percentage points. Latino Internet usage has remained steady over the past year (56%), as a higher proportion of Latinos who use computers also use the Internet. However, the gap between Latinos and nonHispanic whites has grown by 4 points to 20 percentage points. A key component of this digital divide continues to be income: Latinos with annual household incomes of more than $40,000 are just as likely as non-Hispanic whites who also earn more than $40,000 to use computers (88%) – and only slightly less likely than those non-Hispanic whites to use the Internet (82% to 85%). It is the Latinos in lower-income categories who lag behind non-Hispanic whites in computer and Internet use. Do you ever use a computer at home, at work, or at school? Do you ever go on-line to access the Internet or World Wide Web or to send or receive e-mail? All Adults Sept Dec Jan Feb Aug Sept Oct Jan Jan 99 99 00 00 00 00 00 01 02 74% 76% 78% 72% 76% 78% 78% 79% 78% 60 61 64 60 66 68 68 69 72 "Do you ever use a computer at home, at work, or at school?" Latinos Sept 99 Dec 99 Jan 00 Feb 00 Aug 00 Sept 00 Oct 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 62% 67% 61% 55% 66% 68% 70% 72% 67% Non-Hispanic whites 77 77 81 76 79 80 80 80 81 "Do you ever go on-line to access the Internet or World Wide Web or to send or receive e-mail?" Latinos Sept 99 Dec 99 Jan 00 Feb 00 Aug 00 Sept 00 Oct 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 39% 42% 40% 39% 50% 51% 56% 56% 56% Non-Hispanic whites 65 66 70 66 70 73 71 72 76 - 18 - Social and Economic Trends Internet Shopping The current survey presents a picture of Internet use that stands in stark contrast to the wave of optimistic media reports of increased on-line holiday shopping this year. Although slightly more people in California use the Internet this year compared to this time last year, the percentage of Californians using the Internet to purchase Christmas or holiday gifts has remained steady (25%). Residents in the San Francisco Bay area continue to lead computer users in other California regions when it comes to the acceptance of e-commerce. Thirty-five percent of the San Francisco Bay area residents who report being on-line used the Internet to purchase Christmas or holiday gifts, compared to 21 percent in Los Angeles, 23 percent in the Southern California region outside of Los Angeles, and 20 percent in the Central Valley. The propensity of Californians to shop on-line continues to reflect the income, age, educational, and ethnic diversity in the state. While 46 percent of Californians with annual household incomes greater than $80,000 used the Internet for holiday shopping, only 11 percent of those with incomes under $40,000 bought presents on-line. Similarly, Californians who are age 55 and older are about half as likely as those under 55 to buy on-line (12% versus 25%). Those Californians who have at least a college degree are much more likely than those with a high school diploma or less to shop for the holidays on-line (36% versus 11%). Only 13 percent of Latinos did their gift shopping on-line this year, compared to 29 percent of non-Hispanic whites. Similarly, expectations for Internet shopping over the next year is nearly identical to last year’s projections: 27 percent of respondents expect to make “a lot” or “some” purchases over the Internet in the upcoming year, compared to 26 percent a year ago. In the past few months, did you buy any Christmas or holiday gifts over the Internet? Yes, often Yes, sometimes No Don't use Internet This year, how often do you expect to make purchases over the Internet? A lot Some Very little Not at all Don't use Internet Jan 00 5% 15 44 36 5% 18 21 20 36 Jan 01 9% 15 45 31 7% 19 23 20 31 Jan 02 9% 16 47 28 6% 21 23 22 28 - 19 - Social and Economic Trends Internet News Gathering Almost all Californians (93%) are continuing to closely follow news about the terrorist attacks on the United States, while 66 percent are closely following news about the stock market and U.S. economy. A similar proportion reported closely following these news stories in December. By contrast, only 38 percent of residents report that they are closely following the news about the state's elections. Nearly half of Californians (46%) went on-line in the past few months to get news and information about the attacks. By contrast, a November 2001 survey by the Pew Research Center reports that 35 percent of Americans “regularly” or “sometimes” used the Internet to learn about the terrorist attacks or the war on terrorism. Thirty-seven percent of Californians also went on-line for news about the stock market and U.S. economy. Regional differences in using the Internet as a news source mirror differences in overall Internet use. San Francisco Bay area residents used the Internet to gather news about the terrorist attacks (55%) and stocks and the economy (46%) more than Californians in other regions. Internet news gathering is more common among younger, wealthier, more educated, and nonHispanic white Californians. This is similar to the demographic trends in overall Internet use. For example, 53 percent of Californians under the age of 55 used the Internet to get news and information about the terrorist attacks, compared to only 25 percent of those age 55 and older. Only 35 percent of state residents with household incomes under $40,000 checked terrorism news on the Internet, while 63 percent of those with incomes higher than $80,000 went on-line for this information. Residents with at least a college degree are much more likely than those with a high school diploma or less to have turned to the Internet to learn about the terrorist attacks (62% to 26%). Similarly, a lower percentage of Latinos than non-Hispanic whites have used the Internet to follow this issue (38% to 48%). In the past few months, did you go on-line to get news and information about the terrorist attacks on the United States? Yes, often Yes, sometimes No Don’t use Internet In the past few months, did you go on-line to get news and information about the stock market and U.S. economy? Yes, often Yes, sometimes No Don’t use Internet All Adults 23% 23 26 28 20% 17 35 28 Central Valley 19% 20 25 36 15% 13 36 36 Region SF Bay Area Los Angeles 29% 26 24 21 21% 23 27 29 25% 21 33 21 19% 15 37 29 Other Southern California Latino 23% 22 27 28 16% 22 19 43 18% 18 36 28 10% 14 33 43 - 20 - Survey Methodology The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, with the assistance of Jon Cohen, survey research manager, and Lisa Cole and Eric McGhee, research associates. The findings of this survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,023 California adult residents interviewed from December 26, 2001, to January 10, 2002. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers, ensuring that both listed and unlisted telephone numbers were called. All telephone exchanges in California were eligible for calling. Telephone numbers in the survey sample were called up to five times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing by using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Each interview took an average of 20 minutes to complete. Interviewing was conducted in English or Spanish. The survey was translated into Spanish by Casa Hispana. We used recent U.S. Census and state figures to compare the demographic characteristics of the survey sample with characteristics of California's adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the census and state figures. The survey data in this report were statistically weighted to account for any demographic differences. The sampling error for the total sample of 2,023 adults is +/- 2 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 2 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger. The sampling error for the 1,502 registered voters is +/- 2.5%, for the 954 likely voters is +/-3.5%, and for the 373 GOP primary likely voters is +/- 5%. Sampling error is just one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. Throughout the report, we refer to four geographic regions. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “SF Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, and "Other Southern California" includes the mostly suburban regions of Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. These four regions were chosen for analysis because they are the major population centers of the state, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population; moreover, the growth of the Central Valley and “Other Southern California” regions have given them increasing political significance. We present specific results for Latinos because they account for about 28 percent of the state's adult population and constitute one of the fastest growing voter groups. The sample sizes for the African American and Asian subgroups are not large enough for separate statistical analysis. We contrast the opinions of Democrats and Republicans with "other" or “independent” registered voters. This third category includes those who are registered to vote as “decline to state” as well as a fewer number who say they are members of other political parties. In some cases, we compare PPIC Statewide Survey responses to responses recorded in national surveys conducted by Belden Russonello & Stewart in July 2000; Pew Research Center in June and November 2001; ABC/Washington Post in November 2001; CBS News/New York Times in October and December 2001; CNN/Time in December 2001; the Conference Board in December 2001; and Education Week: "Quality Counts 2002" (http://www.edweek.org/sreports/qc02/) in January 2002. We used 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2001 PPIC Statewide Surveys to analyze trends over time in California. - 21 - - 22 - PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT DECEMBER 26, 2001 – JANUARY 10, 2002 2,023 CALIFORNIA ADULT RESIDENTS; ENGLISH AND SPANISH MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 2% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE 1. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 59% right direction 32 wrong direction 9 don't know 2. Which one issue facing California today do you think is the most important for the governor and state legislature to work on in 2002? (code, don’t read) 20% public schools 14 electricity process, deregulation 14 jobs, the economy 7 budget and taxes 6 environment, land use, and growth 4 terrorism and security 4 immigration, illegal immigration 3 crime, gangs 3 transportation and traffic congestion 3 poverty, homelessness 2 health care, HMO reform 10 other (specify) 10 don't know 3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Gray Davis is handling his job as governor of California? 52% approve 38 disapprove 10 don’t know (rotate q. 4 through 9) 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor Davis is handling the state’s kindergarten through twelfth grade public education system? 39% approve 40 disapprove 21 don't know 5a. [split sample] Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Davis is handling crime and punishment issues? 52% approve 29 disapprove 19 don't know 5b. [split sample] Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Davis is handling the issue of terrorism and security in California? 68% approve 20 disapprove 12 don't know - 23 - 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Davis is handling the issue of transportation and traffic congestion? 39% approve 45 disapprove 16 don't know 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Davis is handling the state budget and taxes? 42% approve 46 disapprove 12 don't know 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Davis is handling the issue of the electricity problem in California? 39% approve 54 disapprove 7 don't know 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Davis is handling the issue of jobs and the economy in California? 45% approve 39 disapprove 16 don't know 10. On another topic, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job the California legislature is doing at this time? 49% approve 35 disapprove 16 don’t know 11. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 48% good times 46 bad times 6 don't know 12. The state government faces a budget deficit of up to $12 billion in the next year. Which would you most prefer as a way to balance the state budget: (rotate a, b, c) (a) Reduce spending and avoid tax increases; (b) Increase taxes and avoid spending cuts; (c) Adopt a mix of spending cuts and tax increases? 53% reduce spending and avoid tax increases 10 increase taxes and avoid spending cuts 32 mix of spending cuts and tax increases 2 none of the above 3 don’t know 13. A measure is proposed for the November 2002 ballot which would raise the state sales tax from 6 percent to 6¼ percent. The goal of the measure is to increase funding for police, fire, and medical agencies by about one billion dollars per year as part of an effort to increase terrorism readiness. If an election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? (if asked: Local sales tax may make your total sales tax higher than the state sales tax.) 60% yes 35 no 5 don’t know 14. We have some questions about kindergarten through 12th grade public schools in California. Where do you think California currently ranks in per pupil spending? Compared to other states, is California’s spending near the top, above average, average, below average, or near the bottom? 6% near the top 9 above average 24 average 28 below average 20 near the bottom 13 don’t know 15. Where do you think California ranks in student test scores for K-12 public schools? Compared to other states, are California’s student test scores currently near the top, above average, average, below average, or near the bottom? 2% near the top 6 above average 29 average 39 below average 16 near the bottom 8 don’t know 16. Do you think students should or should not have to pass statewide tests before they can graduate from high school, even if they have passing grades in their classes? When I say statewide tests, I mean a test of knowledge and skills given to all high school students in your state. 17. Do you think students should or should not have to pass statewide tests in reading and math before they can be promoted, for example, from fourth to fifth grade, even if they have passing grades in their classes? 76% should 22 should not 2 don't know 18. On another topic, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling his job as president? 80% approve 17 disapprove 3 don’t know 19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling the issue of terrorism and security? 85% approve 13 disapprove 2 don't know 20. How much of a problem is terrorism and security in California today? Is it a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem? 25% big problem 44 somewhat of a problem 29 not much of a problem 2 don't know 21. How would you rate the job the government is doing in building defenses at home to prevent future terrorist attacks? Would you say the government is doing an excellent, good, only fair, or poor job? 9% excellent 46 good 31 fair 10 poor 4 don’t know 22. How worried are you that you or someone in your family will be the victim of a terrorist attack – very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not at all worried? 8% very worried 27 somewhat worried 37 not too worried 27 not at all worried 1 don’t know 74% should 23 should not 3 don't know - 24 - 23. Which concerns you more right now – that the government will fail to enact strong anti-terrorism laws, or that the government will enact new antiterrorism laws which excessively restrict the average person’s civil liberties? 37% government will fail to enact laws 51 government will restrict civil liberties 3 other answer (volunteered) 9 don’t know 24. In order to reduce the threat of terrorism, would you be willing or not willing to allow government agencies to monitor the telephone calls and e-mail of ordinary Americans on a regular basis? 35% willing 62 not willing 3 don’t know 25. In efforts to reduce the threat of terrorism, do you think the government is currently doing too much, too little, or the right amount on U.S. airport security? 8% too much 39 too little 49 right amount 1 don’t use airports/haven’t flown lately 3 don’t know 26. On another topic, do you favor or oppose having the federal government issue voluntary identification cards for U.S. citizens, which would be linked to a federal database containing detailed personal information on the cardholders? 55% favor 41 oppose 4 don’t know 27. Do you favor or oppose having the federal government issue mandatory identification cards for noncitizens entering the United States, which would be linked to a federal database containing detailed personal information on the cardholders? 82% favor 15 oppose 3 don’t know 28. On another topic, people have different ideas about the government in Washington. These ideas don't refer to Democrats or Republicans in particular, but just to government in general. How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right – just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time? 7% just about always 39 most of the time 52 some of the time 1 none of the time (code, don't read) 1 don’t know 29. Do you think that the people in government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes, waste some of it, or don't waste very much of it? 54% a lot 39 some 5 don’t waste very much 2 don’t know 30. Would you say the government is pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves or that it is run for the benefit of all of the people? 58% few big interests 34 benefit of all the people 8 don’t know 31. On another topic, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain you are registered to vote? (if yes: Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or as an independent?) 35% yes, Democrat (skip to q. 34) 27 yes, Republican (skip to q. 33) 4 yes, other party (skip to q. 34) 14 yes, independent (ask q. 32) 20 no, not registered (skip to q. 34) [Responses recorded for questions 32-40 are from likely voters only. All other responses are from all adults.] 32. (Independents only) California voters like yourself will be able to choose between voting in the Republican primary and the Democratic primary in March 2002. Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or neither? 18% Republican primary (ask q. 33) 20 Democratic primary (skip to q. 34) 42 neither (skip to q. 34) 20 don’t know (skip to q. 34) 33. (GOP primary voters only) If the Republican primary election for governor were being held today, and these were the candidates, whom would you vote for? (rotate names, then ask “or someone else?”) 41% Richard Riordan 13 Bill Jones 4 William E. Simon 42 other/don’t know If these were the candidates in the November 2002 governor’s election ... (rotate questions 34 to 36) 34. Would you vote for … (rotate names) 42% Gray Davis, a Democrat 31 Bill Jones, a Republican 27 other/don’t know - 25 - 35. Would you vote for … (rotate names) 37% Gray Davis, a Democrat 41 Richard Riordan, a Republican 22 other/don’t know 36. Would you vote for … (rotate names) 42% Gray Davis, a Democrat 29 William E. Simon, a Republican 29 other/don’t know 37. How much do you blame Governor Davis for the state government’s budget deficit – a lot, some, very little, or not at all? 28% a lot 43 some 19 very little 8 not at all 2 don’t know 38. How much do you blame Governor Davis for California’s electricity problems – a lot, some, very little, or not at all? 38% a lot 31 some 18 very little 11 not at all 2 don’t know 39. On another topic, Proposition 45 on the March 2002 ballot – the “Legislative Term Limits, Local Voter Petitions" initiative – allows voters to submit petition signatures to permit their incumbent legislator to run for re-election and serve a maximum of four years beyond the terms provided for in the constitution if a majority of voters approves. The fiscal impact includes unknown county costs and potentially up to several hundreds of thousands of dollars biennially statewide. If an election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 45? 31% yes 61 no 8 don’t know 40. What if your state legislators were allowed to serve up to four years beyond the current term limits of three two-year terms in the state assembly and two four-year terms in the state senate? Would they be more effective or less effective in representing your area, or would there be no difference? 31% more effective 23 less effective 40 no difference 6 don’t know 41. People have different ideas about the state government in Sacramento. How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Sacramento to do what is right – just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time? 5% just about always 42 most of the time 49 some of the time 1 none of the time (code, don't read) 3 don’t know 42. Do you think that the people in state government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes, waste some of it, or don't waste very much of it? 38% a lot 52 some 7 don’t waste very much 3 don’t know 43. Would you say the state government is pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves or that it is run for the benefit of all of the people? 54% few big interests 38 benefit of all the people 8 don’t know 44. On another topic, would you consider yourself to be politically very liberal, somewhat liberal, middleof-the-road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative? 9% very liberal 22 somewhat liberal 33 middle-of-the-road 27 somewhat conservative 9 very conservative 45. Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics – a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 18% great deal 46 fair amount 29 only a little 7 none 46. How often would you say you vote – always, nearly always, part of the time, seldom, or never? 50% always 22 nearly always 10 part of the time 6 seldom 12 never - 26 - I will read a list of some recent news stories covered by news organizations. As I read each one, tell me if you followed this news story very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely. (rotate q. 47 to 49) 47. News about the terrorism attacks on the United States. 66% very closely 27 fairly closely 5 not too closely 2 not at all closely 48. News about the stock market and U.S. economy. 30% very closely 36 fairly closely 20 not too closely 14 not at all closely 49. News about candidates for the 2002 California governor’s election. 9% very closely 29 fairly closely 34 not too closely 28 not at all closely 50. On another topic, do you ever use a computer at home, at work, or at school? (if yes: Do you do this often or only sometimes?) 62% yes, often (ask q. 51) 16 yes, sometimes (ask q. 51) 22 no (skip to q. 56) 51. Do you ever go online to access the Internet or World Wide Web or to send or receive email? (if yes: Do you do this often or only sometimes?) 54% yes, often (ask q. 52) 18 yes, sometimes (ask q. 52) 6 no (skip to q. 56) 22 don’t know (skip to q. 56) 52. In the past few months, did you buy Christmas or holiday gifts over the Internet? (if yes: Did you do this often, or only sometimes?) 9% yes, often 16 yes, sometimes 47 no 28 don’t know 53. This year, how often do you expect to make purchases over the Internet – a lot, some, very little, or not at all? 6% a lot 21 some 23 very little 22 not at all 28 don’t know 54. In the past few months, did you go on line to get news and information about the terrorist attacks on the United States? (if yes: Did you do this often or only sometimes?) 23% yes, often 23 yes, sometimes 26 no 28 don’t know 55. In the past few months, did you go on line to get news and information about the stock market and U.S. economy? (if yes: Did you do this often or only sometimes?) 20% yes, often 17 yes, sometimes 35 no 28 don’t know [56-63: demographic questions] - 27 - PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Advisory Committee Angela Blackwell President Policy Link Paul Brest President The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Mollyann Brodie Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley Dennis A. Collins President The James Irvine Foundation Matt Fong Chairman Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation Advisory Committee William Hauck President California Business Roundtable Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Monica Lozano President and Chief Operating Officer La Opinión Donna Lucas President NCG Porter Novelli Max Neiman Director Center for Social and Behavioral Research University of California, Riverside Dan Rosenheim News Director KPIX-TV Richard Schlosberg President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Carol Stogsdill President Stogsdill Consulting Cathy Taylor Vice President and Editorial Commentary Director Orange County Register Raymond L. 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