Donate
Independent, objective, nonpartisan research

S 107MBS

Authors

S 107MBS

Tagged with:

Publication PDFs

Database

This is the content currently stored in the post and postmeta tables.

View live version

object(Timber\Post)#3742 (44) { ["ImageClass"]=> string(12) "Timber\Image" ["PostClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Post" ["TermClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Term" ["object_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["custom"]=> array(5) { ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(12) "S_107MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(7) "1553581" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(85269) "j a n u a r y 2 0 0 7 &Californians their government in collaboration with The James Irvine Foundation Mark Baldassare Research Director & Survey Director The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) is a private operating foundation established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. The Institute is dedicated to improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. PPIC’s research agenda focuses on three program areas: population, economy, and governance and public finance. Studies within these programs are examining the underlying forces shaping California’s future, cutting across a wide range of public policy concerns: California in the global economy; demography; education; employment and income; environment, growth, and infrastructure; government and public finance; health and social policy; immigrants and immigration; key sectors in the California economy; and political participation. PPIC was created because three concerned citizens—William R. Hewlett, Roger W. Heyns, and Arjay Miller—recognized the need for linking objective research to the realities of California public policy. Their goal was to help the state’s leaders better understand the intricacies and implications of contemporary issues and make informed public policy decisions when confronted with challenges in the future. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political candidates for public office. David W. Lyon is founding President and Chief Executive Officer of PPIC. Thomas C. Sutton is Chair of the Board of Directors. PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 800 San Francisco, California 94111 phone: 415.291.4400 fax: 415.291.4401 www.ppic.org survey@ppic.org TABLE OF CONTENTS About the Survey Press Release State Issues National Issues Regional Map Methodology Questionnaire and Results 1 3 7 17 24 25 27 ABOUT THE SURVEY The PPIC Statewide Survey series provides policymakers, the media, and the general public with objective, advocacy-free information on the perceptions, opinions, and public policy preferences of California residents. Inaugurated in April 1998, this is the 74th PPIC Statewide Survey in a series that has generated a database that includes the responses of more than 154,000 Californians. This survey is the 21st in our Californians and Their Government series, which is conducted periodically to examine the social, economic, and political trends that underlie public policy preferences and ballot choices. It is supported by funding from The James Irvine Foundation. The current survey seeks to raise public awareness, inform decisionmakers, and stimulate public discussion on state and national issues and the current state budget. It also examines Californians’ attitudes towards the elected representatives who represent them in Sacramento and Washington. It looks at residents’ attitudes towards the governor’s state budget plan, plans to fund improvements of the state’s infrastructure, health care policy proposals, and perceptions of other state and national issues. This report presents the responses of 2,014 California adult residents throughout the state on topics including: „ State issues, including approval ratings for Governor Schwarzenegger and the state legislature; the governor’s approval ratings on specific issues; perceptions of the most important issues for the governor and legislature and whether they will be able to accomplish a lot in 2007; general direction of the state, and the outlook for the state’s economy; attitudes towards the governor’s State of the State address and towards proposals on health care, infrastructure, and global warming; and overall satisfaction with the governor’s budget and related proposals. „ California’s budget, including perceptions of the severity of the state budget situation and the fiscal direction in the past two years; priorities for state spending; preferences for the governor’s approach to the state budget, compared to Democratic and Republican legislators’; and overall preferences for higher or lower taxes and more or fewer services. „ National issues, including perceptions of the overall direction of the country and the outlook for the U.S. economy; overall approval ratings for President Bush and his handling of the war in Iraq; health care policy; federal budget and taxes; overall approval ratings of Congress; perceptions of the Democratic leadership and Speaker Nancy Pelosi; whether the president and Congress will be able to accomplish a lot in 2007; attitudes towards the Iraq war and new Iraq proposals by President Bush; and preferences for health care coverage for Americans. „ The extent to which Californians – based on their political party affiliation, region of residence, race/ethnicity, and other demographics – may differ with regard to perceptions, attitudes, and preferences involving state and national issues and state budget issues. Copies of this report may be ordered by e-mail (order@ppic.org) or phone (415-291-4400). Copies of this and earlier reports and the survey database are posted on the publications page of the PPIC web site (www.ppic.org). For questions about the survey, please contact survey@ppic.org. 1 PRESS RELEASE Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: http://www.ppic.org/main/pressreleaseindex.asp PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT Worried About Washington, Californians Pin Hopes on Sacramento ATTITUDE ABOUT IRAQ GOES FROM BAD TO WORSE; GROWING SUPPORT – AND EXPECTATIONS – FOR GOVERNOR, LEGISLATURE SAN FRANCISCO, California, January 24, 2007 — Despite Californians’ support for the stunning congressional power shift, they remain deeply unhappy about the direction of the country and skeptical about their national leaders’ ability to work together, according to a survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. Much – but not all – of this distress may arise from their increasingly bleak assessment of the situation in Iraq. The shift in power notwithstanding, Californians have decidedly mixed feelings about the performance of the U.S. Congress: 42 percent approve; 44 percent disapprove of the way Congress is doing its job. Still, this is higher than the 37 percent approval rating that residents gave Congress in September 2006. What’s driving the improvement? The recent leadership change is an important factor: Residents seem to like the ideas presented by the new Democratic majority in Congress, with 56 percent approving of their policies and plans for the future. Many Californians are also upbeat about Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi: Half of all adults (49%) and likely voters (51%) say they have a favorable impression of the San Francisco Democrat. Nevertheless, these positive developments haven’t dispelled the pessimism that Californians were feeling before the November election: Six in ten adults (60%) today, as in October 2006 (62%), say the United States is headed in the wrong direction. More Californians (53%) prefer to see Democratic congressional leaders rather than President George W. Bush (30%) take the lead in solving the nation’s problems. But no matter who calls the shots, a significant majority of state residents (56%) believe that the president and Congress will not be able to work together in the coming year. “Californians are skeptical that the change in congressional leadership will result in the kind of bipartisan productivity at the national level that they’ve come to expect in Sacramento,” says PPIC statewide survey director Mark Baldassare. Moreover, decreasing approval of President Bush’s performance in office reinforces pessimism about the country’s direction and national leadership. The president’s approval ratings have hit a new low: Only 29 percent of Californians now approve of the way he is handling his job (compared to 32 percent in October 2006); 68 percent disapprove. Majorities of state residents also disapprove of his handling of the federal budget and taxes (59%) and health care policy (58%). However, Californians deliver the most stinging assessment of the president’s performance for his handling of Iraq. Three in four state residents (75%) and likely voters (72%) – including 91 percent of Democrats, 45 percent of Republicans, and 78 percent of independents – disapprove of the way he is handling this situation. Disapproval of President Bush’s Iraq policy has grown by 10 points since January 2006 (65%). 3 Californians and Their Government STRONG OPPOSITION TO IRAQ TROOP SURGE When asked how things are going for the U.S. in Iraq, most Californians (78%) say poorly. For the first time in a PPIC statewide survey, a majority of state residents (52%) say things in Iraq are not going at all well, with another 26 percent saying they are not going too well. Although the percentages vary, majorities of Democrats (89%), Republicans (63%), and independents (76%) all describe the situation in negative terms. California is more pessimistic than the nation as a whole about Iraq: According to a recent Pew Research Center poll, six in 10 Americans think things are not going well. Adding to the gloom, many Californians don’t see light at the end of tunnel for the U.S. in Iraq. Only 31 percent say it is likely that a stable democratic government will be established there; 65 percent say it is unlikely. This perception may contribute to the growing sentiment that it was not worth going to war in the first place: 69 percent of Californians hold this view, up from 62 percent in January 2006. Against this bleak backdrop, it is not surprising that 70 percent of Californians oppose the president’s proposal to increase the size of U.S. military forces in Iraq; only 26 percent support the proposal. This overwhelming opposition masks some significant partisan differences: Majorities of Democrats (87%) and independents (71%) oppose the plan, while a majority of Republicans (59%) support it. Overall, however, Californians are more negative than Americans to this plan: An ABC News--Washington Post poll found that 65 percent of Americans opposed it. SUPPORT FOR BIPARTISAN APPROACH IN SACRAMENTO Californians’ negative assessment of the national scene is all the more stark when compared to their generally upbeat assessment of the state of the state. Many Californians think the state is headed in the right direction (55%) and expect good economic times in the coming 12 months (50%). And after a year in which Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and the state legislature shared a number of major legislative accomplishments, including passage of a historic bond package and legislation to combat global warming, Californians are far more positive in their ratings of state officials. Forty percent say they approve of the way the state legislature is doing its job, a better rating than at any time in 2005 or 2006. Ratings have also increased for Governor Schwarzenegger: Today, 58 percent of state residents approve of his performance in office, an 11-point increase since October (47%) and an 18-point increase from a year ago. And the governor gets his highest marks ever on a number of specific issues – including the environment (55%), transportation (43%), and K-12 education (40%). The governor’s State of the State address was also well received: About half of adults (47%) and likely voters (51%) say they had a favorable impression. The public reaction to two specific – and largely bipartisan – proposals in the State of the State speech is even more positive: 76 percent of Californians favor the creation of a low carbon fuel standard that would reduce vehicular greenhouse gas emissions and 63 percent support selling $43.3 billion in new infrastructure bonds for the construction of schools, prisons, reservoirs, and other projects. Two in three Californians (68%) say they are satisfied with the budget proposal, released January 10th by Governor Schwarzenegger, that called for increased spending without new taxes. But there is a twist: Despite their high approval of his performance and policies, state residents are more likely to prefer the approach of Democrats in the legislature (38%) rather than of the governor (22%) in making tough budget choices. “Californians have high hopes for their state leaders – as long as they continue to chart a moderate path together,” says Baldassare. “Schwarzenegger’s success depends heavily on continuing to find common ground with the Democratic legislature.” In sharp contrast with their view of national leadership dynamics, most Californians are optimistic about Sacramento bipartisanship: 62 percent think the governor and state legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year. 4 PPIC Statewide Survey Press Release IMMIGRATION STATUS COMPLICATES SUPPORT FOR HEALTH PROPOSAL Health care is increasingly on the minds of Californians. When asked to name the one issue that is most important for the governor and legislature to work on this year, state residents say immigration (22%), education and schools (18%), and health care (13%). A year ago, only 5 percent mentioned health care as a top issue. On January 8th, Governor Schwarzenegger outlined a proposal requiring all Californians to have health insurance, with costs shared by employers, health care providers, and individuals. Most state residents (71%) – including majorities of Democrats (79%), Republicans (55%), independents (68%), and likely voters (65%) – support the governor’s plan. Californians are even more enthusiastic about the governor’s proposal to guarantee medical coverage for children in low-income families: 79 percent of state residents and 72 percent of likely voters say they favor it. Support for this proposal drops substantially, however, when residents are asked specifically about providing medical coverage to lower-income children—regardless of their immigrations status. Fifty-six percent of Californians still approve in this case, but 40 percent are opposed. Among likely voters, opposition exceeds support (50% to 46%). Latinos strongly support the proposal (86% favor, 12% oppose), while a majority of whites oppose it (54% oppose, 41% favor). Four in ten Californians (43%) say they approve of Governor Schwarzenegger’s performance when it comes to health policy, but only 29 percent like the way President Bush is handling the issue. Still, most state residents believe both the state (55%) and the federal government (61%) are spending too little on health care. Californians prefer a universal health insurance system – in which people are covered under a government program like Medicare – to the current system in which most health insurance is provided by employers or purchased privately. And they are willing to ante up to get it: Six in 10 adults (63%) and likely voters (59%) say they favor such a system even if it means raising taxes. MORE KEY FINDINGS ƒ Little support for prisons in boosting state spending — Page 13 and 14 Prodded by the federal courts, Governor Schwarzenegger has made spending on corrections a priority in his budget. However, Californians are not convinced: 54 percent of state residents – including majorities of Democrats (55%), Republicans (53%), and independents (60%) -- oppose using the state’s additional revenue to increase funding for prisons and corrections, while 41 percent favor the proposal. Most residents would prefer to use the extra dollars to boost spending on K-12 education (79%) or to reduce the amount of state debt (78%). These preferences are consistent with Californians’ budget priorities generally: Majorities of residents say state government should spend more money on K-12 public education (68%), health and human services (60%), roads and infrastructure (58%), and public colleges and universities (55%). Only 34 percent believe the state should devote more resources to the prisons and corrections system, while 29 percent would have the state spend less in this area. ƒ Small majority likes big government — Page 13 A slim majority of state residents (53%) say they prefer paying more taxes and having state government provide more services. Still, a substantial proportion of adults in the state (40%) want lower taxes and fewer services. Likely voters are more divided than are residents in general on this issue: 49 percent favor more services and 44 percent want fewer. ƒ Residents see improvement on state budget — Page 15 Fewer than half of Californians today (45%) believe that the state budget is a big problem, a vast improvement from January 2004 and 2005 when 70 percent viewed the budget situation as a crisis. Still, most residents (87%) say the state budget remains at least somewhat of a problem. January 2007 5 Californians and Their Government ABOUT THE SURVEY The purpose of the PPIC Statewide Survey is to develop a profile of the social, economic, and political forces affecting California elections and public policy preferences. This survey was supported by funding from The James Irvine Foundation. Findings are based on a telephone survey of 2,014 California adult residents interviewed between January 11 and January 18, 2007. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish. The sampling error for the total sample is +/- 2%. The sampling error for the 1,180 likely voters is +/- 3%. For more information on methodology, see page 25. Mark Baldassare is research director at PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has directed since 1998. PPIC is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to improving public policy through objective, nonpartisan research on the economic, social, and political issues that affect Californians. The institute was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. This report will appear on PPIC’s website (www.ppic.org) after 10 p.m. on January 24. 6 PPIC Statewide Survey STATE ISSUES KEY FINDINGS „ Approval ratings for Governor Schwarzenegger and the state legislature have improved since last year. The governor also receives his highest approval ratings yet on environmental issues, transportation, and K-12 public education. (pages 8-9) „ After a year of considerable bipartisanship and productivity, most Californians are optimistic that the governor and legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in 2007. (page 10) „ Californians express favorable opinions of the governor’s state of the state speech, as well as his proposals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to issue $43.3 billion in infrastructure bonds. More than seven in 10 favor health insurance for all Californians, including a health plan to cover lower-income children, but support for the latter proposal drops sharply when it includes children regardless of their immigration status. (pages 10-12) „ Most Californians are satisfied with the governor’s budget plan. When asked how to use additional revenue, nearly eight in 10 favor increased spending on K-12 schools and on reducing the state’s debt, while a majority oppose increased spending on corrections. (pages 12-13) „ Residents favor increased state funding for K-12 education, health and human services, infrastructure, and public colleges and universities. They are split on whether the state should spend more on prisons and corrections and are divided along party lines on whether to provide more services through higher taxes. (pages 13-15) Percent all adults Governor's Approval Ratings 80 Approve 70 Disapprove 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2006 2006 2007 2005 2005 2004 2004 July Jan July Jan July Jan Jan Most Important Issue for Governor and Legislature to Work On Percent all adults 40 35 30 25 22 20 18 15 13 10 5 0 7 5 StaHteealbthuEdcdgauertcJe,,aotdibIhesoef,mina,lcemitictsh,gcortchnaaoootixsoltmoessyns Preference for State Spending on Prisons and Corrections 6 34 29 Percent all adults 31 More money Less money Same amount Don't know 7 Californians and Their Government JOB PERFORMANCE RATINGS FOR STATE OFFICIALS The new legislative session opens with the legislature enjoying a significant boost in its job approval rating, although it still lags far behind the job approval ratings of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. California adults are now divided in their overall assessment of the legislature (40% approve, 44% disapprove) compared to far more negative reviews in our October pre-election survey (30% approve, 52% disapprove) and our January 2006 survey (29% approve, 57% disapprove). The legislature’s approval ratings are more positive today than at any time in 2005 and 2006. Democrats today are more likely than independents or Republicans to approve of the legislature’s job performance. Legislative approval ratings are also higher among Latinos than whites (52% to 35%). Approval ratings decline with age, education, homeownership, and income. Likely voters are similar to all adults in their approval of the legislature’s job performance. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California legislature is handling its job?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Approve 40% 46% 32% 37% 37% Disapprove 44 39 55 51 49 Don't know 16 15 13 12 14 At the start of his second term, Governor Schwarzenegger has seen a sharp increase in his approval rating. Today, 58 percent of adults approve of his overall performance in office, an 11-point increase since our October survey (47%) and an 18-point increase from a year ago (40%). In fact, his approval ratings are now higher than at any time since January 2005, when they stood at 60 percent. Today, the GOP governor has the support of a majority of Democrats and independents as well as solid majority support among Republicans. His job approval ratings are higher among whites than Latinos (66% to 45%), and his approval ratings also increase with age, education, income, and homeownership. More than half of residents in all four major regions of the state approve of his job performance. We find little difference in his approval ratings between likely voters and all adults. Approve Disapprove Don't know “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind 58% 55% 72% 60% 61% 32 35 21 29 30 10 10 7 11 9 As Californians look forward in the new year, 55 percent think the state is heading in the right direction, while 37 percent believe it is heading in the wrong direction. Views about the state economy are similarly optimistic: 50 percent of California adults are expecting good economic times over the next 12 months, while 39 percent anticipate bad economic times. Last October, 44 percent said the state was headed in the right direction, and 50 percent expected good economic times. A year ago, only 37 percent said the state was headed in the right direction, while 48 percent expected good economic times. 8 PPIC Statewide Survey State Issues GOVERNOR’S REPORT CARD The governor’s approval ratings on five specific issues show a range of public support. However, the time trends point to recent improvements in the governor’s report card. Today, 55 percent of adults approve of the way he is handling environmental issues (the governor has already signed legislation and is now proposing new legislation to address the issue of global warming). Majorities of Democrats, Republicans, independents, and likely voters approve of his job performance on environmental issues. The governor’s current job approval ratings on environmental issues are the highest recorded in PPIC Statewide Surveys in two and a half years (39% July 2004, 32% July 2005, 39% July 2006, 55% today). Nearly half of all state residents (47%) approve of the governor’s handling of the state budget and taxes. Republicans offer a more favorable assessment than Democrats or independents but overall, the assessments by likely voters and all adults are similar. The governor’s current performance ratings on the budget are the highest he’s received in PPIC Statewide Surveys since January 2005 (48% approve). The governor receives mixed reviews on his handling of health care policy, both among all residents (43% approve, 40% disapprove) and among likely voters (43% approve, 42% disapprove). He receives slightly higher ratings from Democrats and independents than from Republicans. We currently have no data on trends over time for health care policy. In the wake of the recent passage of the infrastructure bonds in November, Californians are much more likely to approve than disapprove of the governor’s handling of transportation and traffic congestion (43% to 34%), while nearly one in four are undecided. The ratings offered by likely voters and all adults are similar. Republicans are more likely than independents or Democrats to give the governor positive ratings on this issue. The governor’s ratings today are higher than last year (38%) or two years ago (35%). The governor’s handling of K-12 education trails other specific ratings, as it did in January 2005 and January 2006, with adults and likely voters today about evenly divided. The proportion of Republicans offering positive ratings is far higher than among Democrats or independents. The governor’s approval ratings on public education are the highest since we began asking this question in January 2005. “Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Schwarzenegger is handling …” Environmental issues in California? Approve Disapprove Don't know The issue of the state budget and taxes? Approve Disapprove Don't know The issue of health care policy in California? Approve Disapprove Don't know The issue of transportation and traffic congestion? Approve Disapprove Don't know The state's kindergarten through twelfth grade public education system? Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 55% 25 20 47 39 14 43 40 17 43 34 23 40 39 21 Dem 54% 27 19 41 44 15 44 40 16 36 40 24 31 47 22 Party Rep 63% 19 18 62 26 12 39 43 18 53 24 23 51 30 19 Likely Ind Voters 56% 57% 26 25 18 18 50 50 40 37 10 13 43 43 42 42 15 15 42 41 36 34 22 25 33 38 44 41 23 21 January 2007 9 Californians and Their Government GOVERNOR AND STATE LEGISLATURE IN 2007 When Californians were asked to name the most important issue for the governor and legislature to work on this year (see chart on page 7), residents most often mentioned immigration (22%) and education and schools (18%), followed closely by health care (13%). Lower percentages mentioned jobs and the economy (7%), the state budget and taxes (5%), and other issues such as crime, the environment, gas prices, housing, and infrastructure. A year ago, more Californians were concerned about education (25%) and the state budget (12%), and fewer mentioned immigration (11%) and health care (5%). After a year in which bipartisan agreements were reached on many bills and on infrastructure bond measures for the ballot, six in 10 adults (62%) and likely voters (60%) are optimistic that the governor and legislature will be able to work together during the new legislative session. Majorities of Californians across political, regional, age, education, gender, homeownership, income, and racial/ethnic groups expect that the governor and legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot. Expectations that the legislature and governor could work together were similar among election voters in November (58%), but were much lower among adults (43%) and likely voters (41%) last January. “Do you think that Governor Schwarzenegger and the state legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year, or not?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind Voters Yes, will be able to work together 62% 63% 58% 63% 60% No, will not be able to work together 29 25 34 31 30 Don't know 9 12 8 6 10 STATE OF THE STATE ADDRESS As Governor Schwarzenegger begins his second term in office, about half of adults (47%) and likely voters (51%) say they have a favorable impression of the governor’s State of the State address. Opinions of his annual speech are much more favorable than they were a year ago (34%) and higher than in 2005 (42%) and 2004 (44%). Today, Republicans (54%), independents (49%), and Democrats (46%) all express generally positive reactions, but responses to specific proposals in the speech are even more positive. More than three in four adults (76%) and likely voters (77%) favor the governor’s proposal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by creating a low carbon standard for motor vehicle fuel. Supporters outnumber opponents by more than four to one, with fewer than one in five opposed. Strong majorities in all political parties support this proposal, although favor is higher among Democrats (86%) and independents (79%) than Republicans (62%). More than seven in 10 in all regions and demographic groups favor this proposal. Favor Oppose Don't know “How about the creation of a low carbon fuel standard that would reduce greenhouse gas emissions produced by vehicles?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 76% 86% 62% 79% 18 9 32 16 6565 Likely Voters 77% 18 5 10 PPIC Statewide Survey State Issues STATE OF THE STATE ADDRESS (CONTINUED) In the wake of the passage of five infrastructure bonds in November, 63 percent of adults and 58 percent of likely voters favor the governor’s proposal to sell another $43.3 billion in bonds for construction of schools, prisons, reservoirs, and other infrastructure projects. Three in 10 adults and 35 percent of likely voters are opposed. Again, support is higher among Democrats (66%) and independents (61%) than among Republicans (54%). A majority in all regions and demographic groups approve of the idea. “How about a plan for $43.3 billion in new infrastructure bonds to increase funding for education facilities, corrections and prisons, water storage and flood control, courthouses, and other infrastructure projects?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Favor 63% 66% 54% 61% 58% Oppose 30 28 39 31 35 Don't know 76787 GOVERNOR’S HEALTH CARE PROPOSAL Seven in 10 adults and 65 percent of likely voters say they favor a plan mentioned by the governor on January 8th that would require all Californians to have health insurance, with costs shared by employers, health care providers, and individuals. Fewer than one in three adults (23%) and likely voters (28%) are opposed to this idea. While a majority in all political groups approve of the governor’s health care plan, Democrats (79%) and independents (68%) are considerably more enthusiastic than Republicans (55%). More than six in 10 residents in all regions and demographic groups favor the proposal. However, support is higher among Latinos than whites (86% to 62%) and declines with age, education, and income. Favor Oppose Don't know “How about a plan requiring all Californians to have health insurance, with costs shared by employers, health care providers, and individuals?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind 71% 79% 55% 68% 65% 23 15 39 27 28 66657 Californians are even more favorably disposed toward the governor’s proposal to have the state provide medical coverage for children in lower-income families (under $60,000 annual income for a family of four). More than three in four adults (79%) and 72 percent of likely voters favor this idea. Fewer than one in four is opposed. As with the health insurance proposal noted above, majorities in all political groups favor providing state medical coverage to low-income children, but support is stronger among Democrats (86%) and independents (77%) than among Republicans (59%). At least 70 percent in all regions and demographic groups favor this policy. Support for this proposal drops markedly, however, when residents are asked specifically about providing medical coverage to low-income children regardless of their immigration status. In this case, 56 percent of adults favor the idea, while 40 percent are opposed. Among likely voters, opposition exceeds support (50% to 46%). Democrats continue to favor the proposal (65%), but independents are more divided (48% favor, 47% oppose) and a solid number of Republicans are opposed (68%). January 2007 11 Californians and Their Government GOVERNOR’S HEALTH CARE PROPOSAL (CONTINUED) When asked about providing medical coverage for low-income children without regard to their immigration status, residents in Los Angeles (61% favor, 36% oppose) and the San Francisco Bay Area (60% favor, 36% oppose) remain favorable, while those in the Central Valley (50% favor, 45% oppose) and Other Southern California region (50% favor, 46% oppose) are more divided. Latinos strongly support this proposal (86% favor, 12% oppose), while most white residents oppose it (54% oppose, 41% favor). Support also declines among older, more affluent, and more educated Californians. Overall, of those who favor providing state medical coverage to lower-income children, two in three are still in favor if coverage extends to all children, regardless of immigration status, while three in 10 become opposed. “Please say whether you favor or oppose the following plans and policies presented by Governor Schwarzenegger …” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind A plan to guarantee medical coverage for children of lowincome families, that is a family of four earning under $60,000 a year? Favor Oppose Don't know 79% 86% 59% 77% 18 11 36 18 3355 Favor 56 65 27 48 What if this plan covered children of low- income families regardless Oppose of their immigration status? 40 31 68 47 Don't know 4 4 5 5 Likely Voters 72% 24 4 46 50 4 GOVERNOR’S BUDGET PROPOSAL Two in three Californians are satisfied with the 2007-08 budget proposal released by the governor on January 10th, which calls for increased funding in the four largest budget categories (K-12 education, health and human services, higher education, and prisons and corrections) without raising taxes. Satisfaction with the budget proposal this year is higher than it was last January for last year’s budget proposal among all adults (68% to 60%) and among likely voters (65% to 58%). Reactions this year are much more favorable than they were in January 2005 (38% satisfied) and are even more positive than in 2004 (57% satisfied). This year, strong majorities of residents in all political groups are satisfied with the proposed new budget. “In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the governor's budget plan?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Satisfied 68% 65% 69% 71% 65% Dissatisfied 23 25 23 22 25 Haven't heard anything about the budget (vol.) 3 3 2 1 2 Don't know 67668 As for the specific use of additional revenues proposed in the governor’s budget, 79 percent of adults and 73 percent of likely voters favor increasing funding for K-12 public schools. The percentages in January 2006 were nearly identical (78% of adults, 73% of likely voters). Although majorities in all parties favor using the additional revenues for schools, support is higher among Democrats (86%) and independents (80%) than Republicans (63%). Latinos are more in favor of using additional revenues for schools than are whites (91% to 73%), and support declines with age, education, and income. 12 PPIC Statewide Survey State Issues GOVERNOR’S BUDGET PROPOSAL (CONTINUED) A similar 78 percent of adults favor using the additional revenues to reduce the amount of state debt. More than eight in 10 likely voters (83%) also favor this option. This is similar to the support expressed in January 2006, when 76 percent of adults and 83 percent of likely voters wanted to pay down debt. As in January 2006, Republicans today are especially positive about using additional state revenues for this purpose (87%), but more than three in four independents (79%) and Democrats (78%) also favor this idea. Support for this use of additional revenues increases with age, income, and education. Californians, however, appear to part ways with their governor on the issue of using additional revenues for prisons and corrections. Only about four in 10 adults and likely voters approve of using additional revenues for this purpose. While opposition exceeds support across all political parties and in all regions, opposition increases with education and income, and Latinos are as likely to oppose (47%) as to favor (49%) this particular use of additional revenues. This question was not asked in 2006. “The state will have somewhat more revenue this year than was expected. Do you favor or oppose the following proposals for how to use this year’s additional money in next year’s budget?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind Voters Increase K-12 public education funding Favor Oppose Don't know 79% 86% 63% 80% 73% 19 11 35 20 25 232 - 2 Reduce the amount of state debt Favor Oppose Don't know 78 78 87 79 83 18 18 9 19 13 44424 Increase funding for prisons and corrections Favor Oppose Don't know 41 39 44 38 38 54 55 53 60 57 56325 GENERAL FISCAL PREFERENCES AND PRIORITIES Californians appear to be willing to embrace most of the governor’s proposals that do not include any new taxes, but are instead funded through existing general fund revenues and new borrowing through state bonds. Were his proposals to include new taxes, residents’ responses may be different: 53% of Californians say they would prefer paying more taxes and having a state government that provides more services, while 40 percent would prefer paying lower taxes and having fewer government services. Likely voters are more divided on this issue (49% higher taxes, 44% lower taxes). “In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more – I’d rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, or I’d rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services …” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Higher taxes and more services 53% 69% 27% 53% 49% Lower taxes and fewer services 40 24 67 40 44 Don't know 77 6 77 January 2007 13 Californians and Their Government GENERAL FISCAL PREFERENCES AND PRIORITIES (CONTINUED) Between February 2003 through May 2005, the preference for higher taxes among adults ranged from 43 percent to 51 percent. Support for higher taxes was highest in January 2006 (61%) but has been declining since (55% May 2006, 53% today). Today, Democrats (69%) and liberals (75%) strongly favor higher taxes and more services, while Republicans (67%) and conservatives (55%) favor lower taxes and fewer services. Independents favor higher taxes and more services (53%), while 49 percent of moderates favor higher taxes and 42 percent favor lower taxes. Preference for higher taxes and more government services is lower among whites (47%) than Latinos (65%) and declines with increasing age, education, income, and homeownership. When asked about five of the state’s largest areas of spending, majorities of Californians say they believe the state should spend more money than it does now on K-12 public education (68%), health and human services (60%), roads and other infrastructure (58%), and public colleges and universities (55%). Only in the area of prisons and corrections are residents more divided (34% more money, 31% less money, 29% same amount). This prioritization of state spending preferences is consistent with past years, except in the area of infrastructure, which ranked below public colleges and universities in February 2003. “For each of the following, please tell me if you think the state government should spend more money than it does now, the same amount as now, or less money than now …” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind Voters More money 68% 77% 50% 70% 63% How about the K-12 public education system? Same amount of money Less money 22 7 18 31 22 24 2 15 6 9 Don't know 3 3424 More money 60 71 34 60 54 How about health and human services? Same amount of money Less money 23 12 19 35 24 26 5 26 14 16 Don't know 5 5524 More money 58 61 60 59 60 How about roads and other infrastructure projects? Same amount of money Less money 30 8 28 30 31 30 7 7 10 7 Don't know 4 43 - 3 More money 55 62 37 53 50 How about public colleges and universities? Same amount of money Less money 32 10 29 44 32 34 5 16 12 12 Don't know 3 4334 More money 34 33 37 31 33 How about the state's corrections system, including prisons? Same amount of money Less money 31 29 29 35 34 32 30 22 32 30 Don't know 6 8635 14 PPIC Statewide Survey State Issues GENERAL FISCAL PREFERENCES AND PRIORITIES (CONTINUED) As in past years, more than six in 10 residents today believe the state should spend more money on K-12 public education, although Democrats (77%) are more likely than independents (70%) and Republicans (50%) to favor this idea. Solid majorities of Democrats (71%) and independents (60%) also favor increased spending on health and human services, while Republicans are more divided (34% more spending, 35% the same, 26% less). Since the governor began promoting the issue of infrastructure in January 2006, support for increased spending in this particular budget area has increased. Today, about six in 10 across parties believe that infrastructure spending should be increased. And while majorities of Democrats (62%) and independents (53%) would also like to see more state spending on higher education, Republicans prefer the status quo (44% the same, 37% more spending). Although the governor has made spending on corrections a priority in his recent budget discussions, residents are not convinced that the state should spend more money in this area (34% more, 31% the same, 29% less). Still, they are less opposed to spending more money than in previous years. Residents were also asked about whether they think the state budget situation in California (the balance between government spending and revenues) is a problem today. Fewer than half believe it is a big problem (45%), which is far fewer than in January 2006 (61%), and especially January 2005 (70%) and January 2004 (70%). These findings reflect the state’s fiscal reality. In 2004 and 2005, the state faced multibillion dollar deficits. These deficits have declined significantly since then. Residents are also more positive about the budget situation than they were last year—32 percent believe the situation has improved in the past two years, compared to 26 percent in May 2006 and 21 percent in January 2006. Despite the governor’s improving job approval rating and the high level of public satisfaction with his proposed budget, Californians are more likely to say they prefer the approach of Democrats in the legislature (38%) when it comes to making tough budget choices. Twenty-two percent prefer the governor’s approach and 21 percent prefer the approach of Republican legislators. “When it comes to the tough choices involved in the state budget, both in deciding how much Californians should pay in taxes and how to fund state programs, whose approach do you most prefer — Governor Schwarzenegger’s, the Democrats’ in the legislature, or the Republicans’ in the legislature?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Democrats’ approach 38% 67% 7% 28% 38% Governor’s approach 22 14 33 26 23 Republicans’ approach 21 5 48 23 24 None (volunteered) 3 316 4 Other (specify) 2 122 2 Don't know 14 10 9 15 9 In January 2004, residents favored the governor (33%) over legislative Democrats (27%), and in May 2004, they were more divided (30% governor, 31% Democrats) when asked whose approach they most preferred. Since January 2005, pluralities of adult residents have favored the Democratic legislators in each of five PPIC Statewide Surveys. Across parties today, a strong majority of Democrats (67%) prefer the legislative Democrats’ approach, Republicans generally prefer the approach of legislative Republicans (48%), and independents are divided (28% Democrats’, 26% governor’s, 23% Republicans’). Across regions and demographic groups, pluralities prefer the legislative Democrats’ budgetary approach. January 2007 15 NATIONAL ISSUES KEY FINDINGS „ Ratings of Congress remain mixed (42% approve, 44% disapprove) but have gained five points since the November election. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has favorable ratings from about half of state residents and likely voters. (page 18) „ Majorities of California adults (56%) and likely voters (52%) approve of Democratic congressional leaders’ plans and policies for the future. Fewer, however, think the President and Congress will be able to work together. (page 19) „ President Bush’s job approval ratings continue to decline, with nearly seven in 10 California adults and likely voters disapproving. About six in 10 disapprove of his handling of health care policy. Only one in five approves of his handling of Iraq --- a new low. (page 20) „ Pessimism about Iraq is at a new high. A majority of Californians (52%) say that things in Iraq are going “not at all well.” Nearly seven in 10 adults think it was not worth going to war in Iraq. (page 21) „ Californians strongly oppose Bush’s proposal to send additional troops to Iraq (70%). Nearly nine in 10 Democrats, seven in 10 independents, and 36 percent of Republicans are opposed. (page 22) „ A solid majority of Californians believe the federal government spends too little on health care. A majority would prefer a universal health insurance system over the current system, and they favor this change even if it increases taxes. (page 23) Percent all adults President's Approval Ratings 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Approve Disapprove 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 July Jan July Jan July Jan Jan Direction of the Country Percent all adults 100 80 60 60 40 34 20 73 23 Right direction Wrong direction 52 43 65 29 0 All adults Dem Rep Ind Impression of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi 100 Favorable Unfavorable 80 72 Percent all adults 60 49 40 26 20 55 50 24 11 26 0 All adults Dem Rep Ind 17 Californians and Their Government ATTITUDES TOWARD U.S. CONGRESS As the new congressional session gets started, how do Californians view Congress? Residents give mixed ratings, with 42 percent approving of the way Congress is handling its job and 44 percent disapproving. Likely voters are inclined to be more negative: A majority (51%) disapproves while 37 percent approves. Nonetheless, these ratings represent a sizeable improvement from last September, before the midterm election, when fewer adults (37%) and likely voters (31%) had a favorable view of Congress. Californians’ approval today is similar to the high point seen when we first asked this question in October 2005 (42% approve, 46% disapprove), and to Americans nationwide, according to a January 2007 Washington Post-ABC News poll (43% approve, 50% disapprove). Democrats (46%) and independents (40%) are more positive than Republicans (36%) toward the new Democratic-majority Congress. Approval is also higher in Los Angeles (46%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (44%) than in the Other Southern California (43%) region and the Central Valley (38%). Latinos (56%) are far more likely to approve of Congress than are whites (36%). Approval ratings for Congress decrease among older, more educated, and higher-income residents. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Approve 42 46 36 40 37 Disapprove 44 40 53 49 51 Don’t know 14 14 11 11 12 Most Californians give positive responses when asked about their early impressions of Nancy Pelosi, the new speaker of the House. About half of all adults (49%) and likely voters (51%) give the California congresswoman a favorable rating, while 26 percent of all adults and 32 percent of likely voters give her an unfavorable one. A national survey by Newsweek earlier this month found Pelosi’s ratings to be 36 percent favorable and 23 percent unfavorable among all adults. Pelosi’s favorability ratings are highest in the San Francisco Bay Area (63%), which includes her congressional district, and drop to 49 percent in Los Angeles, 43 percent in the Other Southern California region, and 39 percent in the Central Valley. A strong partisan divide exists, with 72 percent of Democrats and 50 percent of independents viewing Pelosi favorably, and 55 percent of Republicans viewing her unfavorably. “Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi?” Favorable All Adults 49 Region Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles 39 63 49 Other Southern California 43 Likely Voters 51 Unfavorable 26 29 21 24 29 32 Don't know 25 32 16 27 28 17 Who should take the lead in solving the nation’s problems? California adults (53%) and likely voters (50%) pick Democratic congressional leaders as their top choice, while about one in three adults (30%) and likely voters (32%) say President Bush should take the lead. Californians’ preferences for leadership in solving the nation’s problems are similar to Americans as a whole, according to a November 2006 Pew Research Center poll (29% Bush, 51% Democrats in Congress). 18 PPIC Statewide Survey National Issues ATTITUDES TOWARD U.S. CONGRESS (CONTINUED) Californians may be divided in their assessment of the job performance of Congress as a whole, but so far they appear to like the ideas presented by the new Democratic leaders in Congress. A majority of adults (56%) and likely voters (52%) approve of the Democrats’ plans and policies. Not surprisingly, approval is much higher among Democrats (78%) and independents (57%) than among Republicans (20%). Californians are slightly more approving of Democratic leaders’ plans than are adults nationwide, according to the November 2006 Pew Research Center poll (50% approve, 21% disapprove). Approval is higher in the more Democratic-leaning areas of the state, including the San Francisco Bay Area (63%) and Los Angeles (58%), than in the Other Southern California region (51%) or in the Central Valley (48%), which are more Republican in their political leanings. Latinos (69%) are much more approving of the Democratic congressional leaders’ plans and politics than are whites (48%). Among residents who approve of the Democrats’ plans and policies, 75 percent would like to see the Democratic Congress take the lead in solving the nation’s problems, while among those who disapprove, 63 percent prefer to have President Bush take the lead. Approve Disapprove Don’t know “As best you can tell, do you approve or disapprove of Democratic congressional leaders’ policies and plans for the future?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 56 78 20 57 28 9 61 26 16 13 19 17 Likely Voters 52 32 16 Californians are not optimistic about President Bush and Congress working together in the next year. Only 38 percent of all adults, and even fewer likely voters (30%), think that they will be able to work together and accomplish a lot. In a relatively rare instance of agreement, Californians are similarly pessimistic across political parties. This response is very different from the expectation of bipartisan cooperation that Californians have for their own state leaders (62% say governor and legislature will work together, 29% say they will not). Latinos (58%) are more optimistic than whites (29%) about cooperation between the president and Congress this year. Pessimism increases sharply with age, education, income, and homeownership. This negative outlook is similar in California and across the nation. According to a CBS News Poll earlier this month, only 41 percent nationwide thought the president and Congress would be able to work together, while 51 percent thought they would not. Among California adults who think the two branches of government will not be able to accomplish much this year, 74 percent think the country is going in the wrong direction. “Do you think President Bush and the U.S. Congress will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year, or not?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Yes, will be able to work together 38 34 35 35 30 No, will not be able to work together 56 61 61 59 65 Don’t know 65 4 6 5 January 2007 19 Californians and Their Government PRESIDENT’S APPROVAL RATINGS Overall, six in 10 Californians (60%) think things in the country are headed in the wrong direction and only 34 percent think they are headed in the right direction, with voters divided along party lines (see chart on page 17). Californians are more optimistic than adults nationwide, according to the January Washington Post-ABC News poll (26% right direction). Californians’ views are similar today as in October 2006 (62% wrong direction), but more are pessimistic than in January 2005 (51% wrong direction). Approval of President Bush has reached a new low among Californians: Only 29 percent approve of his job performance, while 68 percent disapprove. Bush’s approval ratings have now hit a new low three times in a row, dropping from 33 percent in September 2006 to 32 percent in October 2006 to 29 percent today. Since January 2002, his approval has fallen 51 points. Californians are similar to the nation, according to the Washington Post-ABC News poll (33% approve, 65% disapprove). Among California residents, sharp partisan differences exist in ratings of Bush. Nine in 10 Democrats (89%) and seven in 10 independents (69%) disapprove of his performance, while 58 percent of Republicans approve. Still, six in 10 or more in all regions and demographic groups disapprove of Bush. Ratings of Bush’s performance on health care policy are also negative, with 29 percent approving and 58 percent disapproving of his handling of this area. As with Bush’s overall rating, a strong majority of Democrats (79%) and independents (64%) disapprove, while 48 percent of Republicans approve. Bush’s approval ratings are even lower when it comes to the situation in Iraq. Only 22 percent of Californians approve of the way he is handling this issue, while three in four disapprove. Nationwide, Americans are more approving, according to the Washington Post-ABC News poll (29% approve, 70% disapprove). Californians’ disapproval of the president’s Iraq policies has risen since September 2006 when the disapproval level was 68 percent and has climbed 10 points since January 2006 when it stood at 65 percent. Again, a sharp partisan divide exists, with nine in 10 Democrats (91%) and eight in 10 independents (78%) disapproving, while 51 percent of Republicans approve. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling…” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind Voters His job as president of the United States? Approve Disapprove Don’t know 29 9 58 29 29 68 89 37 69 68 32523 Approve 29 14 48 24 27 Health care policy? Disapprove 58 79 35 64 62 Don’t know 13 7 17 12 11 Approve 22 7 51 18 26 The situation in Iraq? Disapprove 75 91 45 78 72 Don’t know 32442 Californians are also negative about Bush’s handling of the federal budget and taxes, with 32 percent approving and 59 percent disapproving. His approval in this area was similar in October 2005 (30%); it is down from two years ago (40% January 2005). Today, eight in 10 Democrats (79%) and six in 10 independents (62%) disapprove, while 60 percent of Republicans like the way he is handing fiscal issues. 20 PPIC Statewide Survey National Issues SITUATION IN IRAQ With the Iraq war almost four years old, what do Californians now think about it? When asked how things are going for the U.S. in Iraq, only one in five residents says that things are going very well (3%) or somewhat well (17%), while nearly eight in 10 think that things are going not too well (26%) or not at all well (52%). This marks the first time in a PPIC Statewide Survey that more than half of Californians think things are going not at all well, and is a 15-point increase in this response from last January (37%). Californians are more pessimistic about Iraq than is the rest of nation. According to a recent Pew Research Center poll, six in 10 Americans think things are going not too well (32%) or not at all well (30%). In California today, there are sharp partisan differences over this issue. About seven in 10 Democrats (71%) and more than of independents (53%) say things are going not at all well, compared to one in four Republicans (25%) who say things are going not at all well for the U.S. in Iraq. Still, among Republicans this highly negative assessment has increased by 15 points since last January (10%). About one in four or fewer adults across regions of the state express positive sentiments about the situation in Iraq. About three in four or more adults across age, education, income, racial/ethnic, and gender groups are pessimistic, with nearly half in all groups saying things are going not at all well. Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Don’t know “In general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 3153 17 9 30 20 26 18 38 23 52 71 25 53 2121 Likely Voters 3 19 24 53 1 A majority of California adults (69%) continue to think that it was not worth going to war in Iraq. Positive sentiments have dipped to a new low, with only 27 percent of Californians thinking the war was worth it. These findings are slightly more negative than those in September 2006 (30% worth it, 65% not worth it) and positive assessments have dropped seven points since last January. In the January 2007 Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll, Americans as a whole were more positive (34% worth it, 62% not worth it) than Californians about the worthiness of the war. Again, Democrats (88%) and independents (70%) are much more likely than Republicans (36%) to think it was not worth going to war in Iraq. More than six in 10 residents in all regions say the war was not worth it. Latinos are considerably more negative than whites (77% to 62%), and women are somewhat more negative than men (71% to 66%) about this issue. Yes, worth it No, not worth it Don’t know “All in all, do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq, or not?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 27 10 58 27 69 88 36 70 4263 Likely Voters 31 65 4 January 2007 21 Californians and Their Government SITUATION IN IRAQ (CONTINUED) The need for additional U.S. military forces was the focal point of the president’s recent proposal on Iraq. What do Californians think about this new policy? Seven in 10 Californians (70%) oppose an increase in troops, while 26 percent support it. Once again, Californians are more negative than the rest of the country. Nationwide, 65 percent of Americans opposed this policy and 34 percent supported it in the Washington Post-ABC News poll. As with other attitudes about the Iraq war, deep partisan divisions are present in California. Democrats (87%) and independents (71%) are much more likely than Republicans (36%) to oppose a troop increase. Across the state at least six in 10 or more residents in each region oppose this policy, with Los Angeles (77%) and the San Francisco Bay Area residents (73%) voicing the greatest opposition. Latinos are much more likely than whites (83% to 61%) and women are more likely than men (74% to 66%) to oppose this policy. Support for sending more troops to Iraq increases with higher age and income. Support Oppose Don’t know “Do you support or oppose President Bush's proposal to send approximately 22,000 additional U.S. military forces to Iraq?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind 26 10 59 24 32 70 87 36 71 64 43554 Most Californians are not optimistic when asked about the likelihood of a stable democratic government being established in Iraq, with 31 percent saying that it is likely (7% very, 24% somewhat) and 65 percent stating that is not too (32%) or not at all (33%) likely. In a recent Associated Press/Ipsos Poll, 38 percent of Americans said a stable Iraq is likely, while 60 percent said it is unlikely. Sentiment regarding a stable democratic government in Iraq is sharply divided across political parties in California, with at least seven in 10 Democrats (74%) and independents (70%) stating that stability in Iraq is not too likely or not at all likely, while only 46 percent of Republicans hold this view. Fewer than four in 10 residents across the state’s regions think it is very likely or somewhat likely that a stable government in Iraq will be established; residents of the Other Southern California region are the most optimistic. More than six in 10 residents across age, education, income, racial/ethnic, and gender groups think it is not too likely or not at all likely that a stable democratic government will be established in Iraq. “How likely is it that a stable democratic government will be established in Iraq?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Very likely 74855 Somewhat likely 24 18 45 24 28 Not too likely 32 31 28 36 31 Not at all likely 33 43 18 34 33 Don’t know 44113 22 PPIC Statewide Survey National Issues HEALTH CARE POLICY As California’s state policymakers consider a variety of proposals to extend health coverage for the state’s residents, a majority of Californians (61%) think that the federal government is spending too little on health care. Democrats (73%) and independents (60%) are far more likely to hold this view than Republicans (39%). In a national survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation last November, 67 percent of adults nationwide said that the federal government spends too little on health care. Californians prefer a universal health insurance system, in which everyone is covered under a government program like Medicare, over the current system in which most health insurance is provided by employers or purchased privately. While three in 10 residents prefer the current system, six in 10 would opt for a universal health plan. Opinions regarding this issue vary sharply across party lines, with strong support for the current health insurance system among Republicans (58%) but strong support among independents (59%) and even more so among Democrats (73%) for changing to a universal health insurance program. Preference for a change to a universal health insurance program today is similar to the PPIC Statewide Surveys in September 2005 (59%) and September 2004 (60%). “Which would you prefer: (1) the current health insurance system in the United States, in which most people get their health insurance from private employers, but some people have no insurance, (or) (2) a universal health insurance program, in which everyone is covered under a program like Medicare that is run by the government and financed by taxpayers?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Current system 31 18 58 32 37 Universal health insurance system 61 73 36 59 54 Don’t know 89 6 9 9 In addition, 63 percent of all adults and 59 percent of likely voters say they favor the U.S. government guaranteeing health insurance for all citizens even if it means raising taxes. While Republicans are opposed to raising taxes for this purpose, Democrats and independents are strongly in favor of it. The preference for this proposal among adults today is the same as it was in September 2005 (63% favor). Favor Oppose Don’t know “Do you favor or oppose the U.S. government guaranteeing health insurance for all citizens, even if it means raising taxes?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind 63 76 41 64 59 34 20 56 32 38 34 3 4 3 A majority of Californians (55%) also believe the state government is spending too little on health care. More Democrats (68%) hold this perspective than independents (53%), while only 33 percent of Republicans have this perception about the level of state spending on health care. Moreover, 71 percent of Californians favor the state government making its own policies, separate from the federal government, to address the issue of health care. A strong preference for separate state government policies to address the issue of health care is found among likely voters (75%), across all political groups (77% Democrats, 68% Republicans, 74% independents), and the major regions of the state, and age, education, gender, homeownership, income, and racial/ethnic groups. January 2007 23 REGIONAL MAP 24 METHODOLOGY The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, research director and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance in research and writing from Jennifer Paluch, project manager for this survey, and survey research associates Dean Bonner and Sonja Petek. The surveys were conducted with funding from The James Irvine Foundation and benefited from discussions with foundation staff and grantees; however, survey methods, questions, and content of this report were solely determined by Mark Baldassare. The findings of this survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,014 California adult residents interviewed January 11-18, 2007. Interviewing took place on weekday nights and weekend days, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All telephone exchanges in California were eligible. Telephone numbers in the survey sample were called up to six times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Each interview took an average of 18 minutes to complete. Interviewing was conducted in English or Spanish. Accent on Languages translated the survey into Spanish with assistance from Renatta DeFever. Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas, Inc. conducted the telephone interviewing. We used recent U.S. Census and state figures to compare the demographic characteristics of the survey sample with characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the census and state figures. The survey data in this report were statistically weighted to account for any demographic differences. The sampling error for the total sample of 2,014 adults is +/- 2 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 2 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger: For the 1,567 registered voters, it is +/- 2.5 percent; for the 1,180 likely voters it is +/- 3 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. Throughout the report, we present results for four geographic regions accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, and “Other Southern California” includes Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. Residents from other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters. However, sample sizes for these less populated areas are not large enough to report separately in tables and text. We present specific results for Latinos because they account for about 30 percent of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest growing voter groups. The sample sizes for African Americans and Asians are not large enough for separate analysis. We do compare the opinions of registered Democrats, Republicans, and independents (those who are registered to vote as “decline to state”). We also include the responses of “likely voters”— those who are most likely to vote in the state’s elections based on past voting, current interest, and vote intentions. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey responses to earlier PPIC Statewide Surveys and we compare PPIC Statewide Survey responses to those in national surveys by Associated Press/Ipsos, Washington Post-ABC News, CBS News, Kaiser Family Foundation, Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg, Newsweek and the Pew Research Center. 25 QUESTIONNAIRE AND RESULTS CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT January 11-18, 2007 2,014 California Adult Residents: English, Spanish MARGIN OF ERROR +/-2% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE 1. First, which one issue facing California today do you think is the most important for the governor and state legislature to work on in 2007? [code, don’t read] 22% immigration, illegal immigration 18 education, schools 13 health care, health costs 7 jobs, economy 5 state budget, deficit, taxes 4 crime, gangs, drugs 4 environment, pollution 4 infrastructure, traffic, transportation 2 gas prices 11 other 10 don’t know 2. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California? 58% approve 32 disapprove 10 don’t know [rotate questions 3 to 7] 3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Schwarzenegger is handling the issue of the state budget and taxes? 47% approve 39 disapprove 14 don’t know 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Schwarzenegger is handling the state’s kindergarten through 12th grade public education system? 40% approve 39 disapprove 21 don’t know 5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Schwarzenegger is handling the issue of transportation and traffic congestion? 43% approve 34 disapprove 23 don’t know 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Schwarzenegger is handling environmental issues in California? 55% approve 25 disapprove 20 don’t know 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Schwarzenegger is handling the issue of health care policy in California? 43% approve 40 disapprove 17 don’t know 8. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California legislature is handling its job? 40% approve 44 disapprove 16 don’t know 27 Californians and Their Government 9. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 55% right direction 37 wrong direction 8 don’t know 10.Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 50% good times 39 bad times 11 don’t know 11.On another topic, do you think the state budget situation in California—that is, the balance between government spending and revenues—is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today? 45% big problem 42 somewhat of a problem 7 not a problem 6 don’t know 12.In the past two years, do you think the state budget situation has improved, gotten worse, or stayed the same? 32% improved 24 gotten worse 36 stayed the same 8 don’t know Now, I am going to ask about specific areas where the State of California spends money. For each area, please tell me if you think that the state government should spend more money than it does now, the same amount as now, or less money than now. [rotate questions 13 to 17] 13.How about the state’s corrections system, including prisons? 34% more money 31 same amount of money 29 less money 6 don’t know 14.How about the K-12 public education system? 68% more money 22 same amount of money 7 less money 3 don’t know 15.How about public colleges and universities? 55% more money 32 same amount of money 10 less money 3 don’t know 16.How about health and human services? 60% more money 23 same amount of money 12 less money 5 don’t know 17.How about roads and other infrastructure projects? 58% more money 30 same amount of money 8 less money 4 don’t know 18.When it comes to the tough choices involved in the state budget, both in deciding how much Californians should pay in taxes and how to fund state programs, whose approach do you most prefer—[rotate] (1) Governor Schwarzenegger’s, (2) the Democrats’ in the legislature, [or] (3) the Republicans’ in the legislature? 38% Democrats’ 22 Governor Schwarzenegger’s 21 Republicans’ 3 none (volunteered) 2 other (specify) 14 don’t know 28 PPIC Statewide Survey 19.And, in general, which of the following statements do you agree with more—I’d rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, or I’d rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services? 53% higher taxes and more services 40 lower taxes and fewer services 7 don’t know 20.Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of the plans and policies for California that Governor Schwarzenegger presented in his recent State of the State speech? 47% favorable 24 unfavorable 20 haven’t heard about the speech (volunteered) 9 don’t know Next, please tell me if you favor or oppose the following plans and policies that the governor presented in his speech. [rotate questions 21 to 24; rotate questions 22 to 23 as a set] 21.How about a plan for $43.3 billion in new infrastructure bonds to increase funding for education facilities, corrections and prisons, water storage and flood control, courthouses, and other infrastructure projects? 63% favor 30 oppose 7 don’t know [question 22a must follow 22] 22.How about a plan to guarantee medical coverage for children of low-income families, that is, a family of four earning under $60,000 a year? 79% favor 18 oppose 3 don’t know Questionnaire and Results 22a.What if this plan covered children of lowincome families regardless of their immigration status? 56% favor 40 oppose 4 don’t know 23.How about a plan requiring all Californians to have health insurance, with costs shared by employers, health care providers, and individuals? 71% favor 23 oppose 6 don’t know 24.How about the creation of a low carbon fuel standard that would reduce greenhouse gas emissions produced by vehicles? 76% favor 18 oppose 6 don’t know 25.Do you think that Governor Schwarzenegger and the state legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year, or not? 62% yes, will be able to work together 29 no, will not be able to work together 9 don’t know 26.Recently, Governor Schwarzenegger proposed a budget plan for the next fiscal year that includes increased spending on K12 education, health and human services, higher education, and corrections and prisons. The plan includes no new taxes. In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the governor’s budget plan? 68% satisfied 23 dissatisfied 3 haven’t heard anything about the budget (volunteered) 6 don’t know January 2007 29 Californians and Their Government The state will have somewhat more revenue this year than was expected. Do you favor or oppose the following proposals for how to use this year’s additional money in next year’s budget, which begins on July 1, 2007? [rotate questions 27 to 29] 27.Do you favor or oppose using some of this additional money to increase funding for prisons and corrections? 41% favor 54 oppose 5 don’t know 28.Do you favor or oppose using some of this additional money to increase K-12 public education funding? 79% favor 19 oppose 2 don’t know 29.Do you favor or oppose using some of this additional money to reduce the amount of state debt? 78% favor 18 oppose 4 don’t know 30.Changing topics, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling his job as president of the United States? 29% approve 68 disapprove 3 don’t know [rotate questions 31 to 33] 31.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling the federal budget and taxes? 32% approve 59 disapprove 9 don’t know 30 PPIC Statewide Survey 32.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling the situation in Iraq? 22% approve 75 disapprove 3 don’t know 33.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling health care policy? 29% approve 58 disapprove 13 don’t know 34.Do you think things in the United States are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 34% right direction 60 wrong direction 6 don’t know 35.Turning to economic conditions, do you think that during the next 12 months the United States will have good times financially or bad times? 47% good times 46 bad times 7 don’t know 36.In general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq? 3% very well 17 somewhat well 26 not too well 52 not at all well 2 don’t know 37.All in all, do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq, or not? 27% yes, worth it 69 no, not worth it 4 don’t know 38.Do you support or oppose President Bush's proposal to send approximately 22,000 additional U.S. military forces to Iraq? 26% support 70 oppose 4 don’t know 39.How likely is it that a stable, democratic government will be established in Iraq? 7% very likely 24 somewhat likely 32 not too likely 33 not at all likely 4 don’t know 40.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job? 42% approve 44 disapprove 14 don’t know 41.Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi? 49% favorable 26 unfavorable 25 don’t know [skip to q42] 41a.Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? 24% strongly favorable 25 somewhat favorable 10 somewhat unfavorable 16 strongly unfavorable 25 don’t know 42.Who in Washington do you think should take the lead in solving the nation’s problems— President Bush, or the Democratic congressional leaders? 53% Democratic congressional leaders 30 President Bush 6 both (volunteered) 6 neither (volunteered) 5 don’t know 43.As best you can tell, do you approve or disapprove of Democratic congressional leaders’ policies and plans for the future? 56% approve 28 disapprove 16 don’t know Questionnaire and Results 44.Do you think President Bush and the U.S. Congress will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year, or not? 38% yes, will be able to work together 56 no, will not be able to work together 6 don’t know Next, I’d like to ask you a few questions about the health care system. [rotate questions 45 and 46] 45.Do you think the federal government spends too much, too little, or the right amount on health care? 13% too much 61 too little 18 the right amount 8 don’t know 46.Do you think the state government spends too much, too little, or the right amount on health care? 14% too much 55 too little 22 the right amount 9 don’t know 47.Do you favor or oppose the California state government making its own policies, separate from the federal government, to address the issue of health care? 71% favor 22 oppose 7 don’t know 48. Which would you prefer—[rotate] [1] the current health insurance system in the United States, in which most people get their health insurance from private employers, but some people have no insurance [or] [2] a universal health insurance program, in which everyone is covered under a program like Medicare that is run by the government and financed by taxpayers? 31% current system 61 universal health insurance system 8 don’t know January 2007 31 Californians and Their Government 49.Do you favor or oppose the U.S. government guaranteeing health insurance for all citizens, even if it means raising taxes? 63% favor 34 oppose 3 don’t know 50.Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote? 78% yes [ask q51a] 21 no [skip to q52a] 1 don’t know [skip to q52a] 51a.Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or as an independent? 42% Democrat [skip to q52b] 33 Republican [skip to q52c] 5 another party (specify) [skip to q53] 20 independent [ask q52a] 52a.Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party? 21% Republican party 49 Democratic party 23 neither (volunteered) 7 don’t know [skip to q53] 52b.Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 56% strong 41 not very strong 3 don’t know [skip to q53] 52c.Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 45% strong 53 not very strong 2 don’t know 53.Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 10% very liberal 20 somewhat liberal 31 middle-of-the-road 23 somewhat conservative 12 very conservative 4 don’t know 54.Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics? 27% great deal 43 fair amount 24 only a little 5 none 1 don’t know 32 PPIC Statewide Survey PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Angela Blackwell Founder and Chief Executive Officer PolicyLink Paul Brest President The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Mollyann Brodie Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley James E. Canales President The James Irvine Foundation Jon Cohen Director of Polling The Washington Post Matthew K. Fong President Strategic Advisory Group William Hauck President California Business Roundtable Dennis A. Hunt Vice President Communications and Public Affairs The California Endowment Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Carol S. Larson President and Chief Executive Officer The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Monica Lozano Publisher and Chief Executive Officer La Opinión Donna Lucas CEO Lucas Public Affairs Dan Rosenheim News Director KPIX-TV Carol Stogsdill President Stogsdill Consulting Cathy Taylor Vice President and Editorial Commentary Director Orange County Register Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA BOARD OF DIRECTORS Thomas C. Sutton, Chair Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Pacific Life Insurance Company Linda Griego President and Chief Executive Officer Griego Enterprises, Inc. Edward K. Hamilton Chairman Hamilton, Rabinovitz & Alschuler, Inc. Gary K. Hart Founder Institute for Education Reform California State University, Sacramento Walter B. Hewlett Director Center for Computer Assisted Research in the Humanities ADVISORY COUNCIL Stuart A.Gabriel Director and Lusk Chair Lusk Center for Real Estate University of Southern California Clifford W. Graves Elizabeth G. Hill Legislative Analyst State of California Hilary W. Hoynes Associate Professor Department of Economics University of California, Davis Andrés E. Jiménez Director California Policy Research Center University of California Office of the President Norman R. King Director, University Transportation Center California State University, San Bernardino David W. Lyon President and Chief Executive Officer Public Policy Institute of California Ki Suh Park Design and Managing Partner Gruen Associates Constance L. Rice Co-Director The Advancement Project Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center Dean Misczynski Director California Research Bureau Rudolf Nothenberg Chief Administrative Officer (Retired) City and County of San Francisco Manuel Pastor Professor, Latin American & Latino Studies University of California, Santa Cruz Peter Schrag Contributing Editor The Sacramento Bee James P. Smith Senior Economist RAND Corporation Copyright © 2007 by Public Policy Institute of California All rights reserved San Francisco, CA Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source and the above copyright notice is included. PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 800 San Francisco, California 94111 phone: 415.291.4400 fax: 415.291.4401 www.ppic.org survey@ppic.org" } ["___content":protected]=> string(102) "

S 107MBS

" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(111) "https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-january-2007/s_107mbs/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(8587) ["ID"]=> int(8587) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:38:54" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(3816) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(8) "S 107MBS" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(8) "s_107mbs" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(12) "S_107MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(7) "1553581" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(85269) "j a n u a r y 2 0 0 7 &Californians their government in collaboration with The James Irvine Foundation Mark Baldassare Research Director & Survey Director The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) is a private operating foundation established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. The Institute is dedicated to improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. PPIC’s research agenda focuses on three program areas: population, economy, and governance and public finance. Studies within these programs are examining the underlying forces shaping California’s future, cutting across a wide range of public policy concerns: California in the global economy; demography; education; employment and income; environment, growth, and infrastructure; government and public finance; health and social policy; immigrants and immigration; key sectors in the California economy; and political participation. PPIC was created because three concerned citizens—William R. Hewlett, Roger W. Heyns, and Arjay Miller—recognized the need for linking objective research to the realities of California public policy. Their goal was to help the state’s leaders better understand the intricacies and implications of contemporary issues and make informed public policy decisions when confronted with challenges in the future. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political candidates for public office. David W. Lyon is founding President and Chief Executive Officer of PPIC. Thomas C. Sutton is Chair of the Board of Directors. PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 800 San Francisco, California 94111 phone: 415.291.4400 fax: 415.291.4401 www.ppic.org survey@ppic.org TABLE OF CONTENTS About the Survey Press Release State Issues National Issues Regional Map Methodology Questionnaire and Results 1 3 7 17 24 25 27 ABOUT THE SURVEY The PPIC Statewide Survey series provides policymakers, the media, and the general public with objective, advocacy-free information on the perceptions, opinions, and public policy preferences of California residents. Inaugurated in April 1998, this is the 74th PPIC Statewide Survey in a series that has generated a database that includes the responses of more than 154,000 Californians. This survey is the 21st in our Californians and Their Government series, which is conducted periodically to examine the social, economic, and political trends that underlie public policy preferences and ballot choices. It is supported by funding from The James Irvine Foundation. The current survey seeks to raise public awareness, inform decisionmakers, and stimulate public discussion on state and national issues and the current state budget. It also examines Californians’ attitudes towards the elected representatives who represent them in Sacramento and Washington. It looks at residents’ attitudes towards the governor’s state budget plan, plans to fund improvements of the state’s infrastructure, health care policy proposals, and perceptions of other state and national issues. This report presents the responses of 2,014 California adult residents throughout the state on topics including: „ State issues, including approval ratings for Governor Schwarzenegger and the state legislature; the governor’s approval ratings on specific issues; perceptions of the most important issues for the governor and legislature and whether they will be able to accomplish a lot in 2007; general direction of the state, and the outlook for the state’s economy; attitudes towards the governor’s State of the State address and towards proposals on health care, infrastructure, and global warming; and overall satisfaction with the governor’s budget and related proposals. „ California’s budget, including perceptions of the severity of the state budget situation and the fiscal direction in the past two years; priorities for state spending; preferences for the governor’s approach to the state budget, compared to Democratic and Republican legislators’; and overall preferences for higher or lower taxes and more or fewer services. „ National issues, including perceptions of the overall direction of the country and the outlook for the U.S. economy; overall approval ratings for President Bush and his handling of the war in Iraq; health care policy; federal budget and taxes; overall approval ratings of Congress; perceptions of the Democratic leadership and Speaker Nancy Pelosi; whether the president and Congress will be able to accomplish a lot in 2007; attitudes towards the Iraq war and new Iraq proposals by President Bush; and preferences for health care coverage for Americans. „ The extent to which Californians – based on their political party affiliation, region of residence, race/ethnicity, and other demographics – may differ with regard to perceptions, attitudes, and preferences involving state and national issues and state budget issues. Copies of this report may be ordered by e-mail (order@ppic.org) or phone (415-291-4400). Copies of this and earlier reports and the survey database are posted on the publications page of the PPIC web site (www.ppic.org). For questions about the survey, please contact survey@ppic.org. 1 PRESS RELEASE Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: http://www.ppic.org/main/pressreleaseindex.asp PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT Worried About Washington, Californians Pin Hopes on Sacramento ATTITUDE ABOUT IRAQ GOES FROM BAD TO WORSE; GROWING SUPPORT – AND EXPECTATIONS – FOR GOVERNOR, LEGISLATURE SAN FRANCISCO, California, January 24, 2007 — Despite Californians’ support for the stunning congressional power shift, they remain deeply unhappy about the direction of the country and skeptical about their national leaders’ ability to work together, according to a survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. Much – but not all – of this distress may arise from their increasingly bleak assessment of the situation in Iraq. The shift in power notwithstanding, Californians have decidedly mixed feelings about the performance of the U.S. Congress: 42 percent approve; 44 percent disapprove of the way Congress is doing its job. Still, this is higher than the 37 percent approval rating that residents gave Congress in September 2006. What’s driving the improvement? The recent leadership change is an important factor: Residents seem to like the ideas presented by the new Democratic majority in Congress, with 56 percent approving of their policies and plans for the future. Many Californians are also upbeat about Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi: Half of all adults (49%) and likely voters (51%) say they have a favorable impression of the San Francisco Democrat. Nevertheless, these positive developments haven’t dispelled the pessimism that Californians were feeling before the November election: Six in ten adults (60%) today, as in October 2006 (62%), say the United States is headed in the wrong direction. More Californians (53%) prefer to see Democratic congressional leaders rather than President George W. Bush (30%) take the lead in solving the nation’s problems. But no matter who calls the shots, a significant majority of state residents (56%) believe that the president and Congress will not be able to work together in the coming year. “Californians are skeptical that the change in congressional leadership will result in the kind of bipartisan productivity at the national level that they’ve come to expect in Sacramento,” says PPIC statewide survey director Mark Baldassare. Moreover, decreasing approval of President Bush’s performance in office reinforces pessimism about the country’s direction and national leadership. The president’s approval ratings have hit a new low: Only 29 percent of Californians now approve of the way he is handling his job (compared to 32 percent in October 2006); 68 percent disapprove. Majorities of state residents also disapprove of his handling of the federal budget and taxes (59%) and health care policy (58%). However, Californians deliver the most stinging assessment of the president’s performance for his handling of Iraq. Three in four state residents (75%) and likely voters (72%) – including 91 percent of Democrats, 45 percent of Republicans, and 78 percent of independents – disapprove of the way he is handling this situation. Disapproval of President Bush’s Iraq policy has grown by 10 points since January 2006 (65%). 3 Californians and Their Government STRONG OPPOSITION TO IRAQ TROOP SURGE When asked how things are going for the U.S. in Iraq, most Californians (78%) say poorly. For the first time in a PPIC statewide survey, a majority of state residents (52%) say things in Iraq are not going at all well, with another 26 percent saying they are not going too well. Although the percentages vary, majorities of Democrats (89%), Republicans (63%), and independents (76%) all describe the situation in negative terms. California is more pessimistic than the nation as a whole about Iraq: According to a recent Pew Research Center poll, six in 10 Americans think things are not going well. Adding to the gloom, many Californians don’t see light at the end of tunnel for the U.S. in Iraq. Only 31 percent say it is likely that a stable democratic government will be established there; 65 percent say it is unlikely. This perception may contribute to the growing sentiment that it was not worth going to war in the first place: 69 percent of Californians hold this view, up from 62 percent in January 2006. Against this bleak backdrop, it is not surprising that 70 percent of Californians oppose the president’s proposal to increase the size of U.S. military forces in Iraq; only 26 percent support the proposal. This overwhelming opposition masks some significant partisan differences: Majorities of Democrats (87%) and independents (71%) oppose the plan, while a majority of Republicans (59%) support it. Overall, however, Californians are more negative than Americans to this plan: An ABC News--Washington Post poll found that 65 percent of Americans opposed it. SUPPORT FOR BIPARTISAN APPROACH IN SACRAMENTO Californians’ negative assessment of the national scene is all the more stark when compared to their generally upbeat assessment of the state of the state. Many Californians think the state is headed in the right direction (55%) and expect good economic times in the coming 12 months (50%). And after a year in which Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and the state legislature shared a number of major legislative accomplishments, including passage of a historic bond package and legislation to combat global warming, Californians are far more positive in their ratings of state officials. Forty percent say they approve of the way the state legislature is doing its job, a better rating than at any time in 2005 or 2006. Ratings have also increased for Governor Schwarzenegger: Today, 58 percent of state residents approve of his performance in office, an 11-point increase since October (47%) and an 18-point increase from a year ago. And the governor gets his highest marks ever on a number of specific issues – including the environment (55%), transportation (43%), and K-12 education (40%). The governor’s State of the State address was also well received: About half of adults (47%) and likely voters (51%) say they had a favorable impression. The public reaction to two specific – and largely bipartisan – proposals in the State of the State speech is even more positive: 76 percent of Californians favor the creation of a low carbon fuel standard that would reduce vehicular greenhouse gas emissions and 63 percent support selling $43.3 billion in new infrastructure bonds for the construction of schools, prisons, reservoirs, and other projects. Two in three Californians (68%) say they are satisfied with the budget proposal, released January 10th by Governor Schwarzenegger, that called for increased spending without new taxes. But there is a twist: Despite their high approval of his performance and policies, state residents are more likely to prefer the approach of Democrats in the legislature (38%) rather than of the governor (22%) in making tough budget choices. “Californians have high hopes for their state leaders – as long as they continue to chart a moderate path together,” says Baldassare. “Schwarzenegger’s success depends heavily on continuing to find common ground with the Democratic legislature.” In sharp contrast with their view of national leadership dynamics, most Californians are optimistic about Sacramento bipartisanship: 62 percent think the governor and state legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year. 4 PPIC Statewide Survey Press Release IMMIGRATION STATUS COMPLICATES SUPPORT FOR HEALTH PROPOSAL Health care is increasingly on the minds of Californians. When asked to name the one issue that is most important for the governor and legislature to work on this year, state residents say immigration (22%), education and schools (18%), and health care (13%). A year ago, only 5 percent mentioned health care as a top issue. On January 8th, Governor Schwarzenegger outlined a proposal requiring all Californians to have health insurance, with costs shared by employers, health care providers, and individuals. Most state residents (71%) – including majorities of Democrats (79%), Republicans (55%), independents (68%), and likely voters (65%) – support the governor’s plan. Californians are even more enthusiastic about the governor’s proposal to guarantee medical coverage for children in low-income families: 79 percent of state residents and 72 percent of likely voters say they favor it. Support for this proposal drops substantially, however, when residents are asked specifically about providing medical coverage to lower-income children—regardless of their immigrations status. Fifty-six percent of Californians still approve in this case, but 40 percent are opposed. Among likely voters, opposition exceeds support (50% to 46%). Latinos strongly support the proposal (86% favor, 12% oppose), while a majority of whites oppose it (54% oppose, 41% favor). Four in ten Californians (43%) say they approve of Governor Schwarzenegger’s performance when it comes to health policy, but only 29 percent like the way President Bush is handling the issue. Still, most state residents believe both the state (55%) and the federal government (61%) are spending too little on health care. Californians prefer a universal health insurance system – in which people are covered under a government program like Medicare – to the current system in which most health insurance is provided by employers or purchased privately. And they are willing to ante up to get it: Six in 10 adults (63%) and likely voters (59%) say they favor such a system even if it means raising taxes. MORE KEY FINDINGS ƒ Little support for prisons in boosting state spending — Page 13 and 14 Prodded by the federal courts, Governor Schwarzenegger has made spending on corrections a priority in his budget. However, Californians are not convinced: 54 percent of state residents – including majorities of Democrats (55%), Republicans (53%), and independents (60%) -- oppose using the state’s additional revenue to increase funding for prisons and corrections, while 41 percent favor the proposal. Most residents would prefer to use the extra dollars to boost spending on K-12 education (79%) or to reduce the amount of state debt (78%). These preferences are consistent with Californians’ budget priorities generally: Majorities of residents say state government should spend more money on K-12 public education (68%), health and human services (60%), roads and infrastructure (58%), and public colleges and universities (55%). Only 34 percent believe the state should devote more resources to the prisons and corrections system, while 29 percent would have the state spend less in this area. ƒ Small majority likes big government — Page 13 A slim majority of state residents (53%) say they prefer paying more taxes and having state government provide more services. Still, a substantial proportion of adults in the state (40%) want lower taxes and fewer services. Likely voters are more divided than are residents in general on this issue: 49 percent favor more services and 44 percent want fewer. ƒ Residents see improvement on state budget — Page 15 Fewer than half of Californians today (45%) believe that the state budget is a big problem, a vast improvement from January 2004 and 2005 when 70 percent viewed the budget situation as a crisis. Still, most residents (87%) say the state budget remains at least somewhat of a problem. January 2007 5 Californians and Their Government ABOUT THE SURVEY The purpose of the PPIC Statewide Survey is to develop a profile of the social, economic, and political forces affecting California elections and public policy preferences. This survey was supported by funding from The James Irvine Foundation. Findings are based on a telephone survey of 2,014 California adult residents interviewed between January 11 and January 18, 2007. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish. The sampling error for the total sample is +/- 2%. The sampling error for the 1,180 likely voters is +/- 3%. For more information on methodology, see page 25. Mark Baldassare is research director at PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has directed since 1998. PPIC is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to improving public policy through objective, nonpartisan research on the economic, social, and political issues that affect Californians. The institute was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. This report will appear on PPIC’s website (www.ppic.org) after 10 p.m. on January 24. 6 PPIC Statewide Survey STATE ISSUES KEY FINDINGS „ Approval ratings for Governor Schwarzenegger and the state legislature have improved since last year. The governor also receives his highest approval ratings yet on environmental issues, transportation, and K-12 public education. (pages 8-9) „ After a year of considerable bipartisanship and productivity, most Californians are optimistic that the governor and legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in 2007. (page 10) „ Californians express favorable opinions of the governor’s state of the state speech, as well as his proposals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to issue $43.3 billion in infrastructure bonds. More than seven in 10 favor health insurance for all Californians, including a health plan to cover lower-income children, but support for the latter proposal drops sharply when it includes children regardless of their immigration status. (pages 10-12) „ Most Californians are satisfied with the governor’s budget plan. When asked how to use additional revenue, nearly eight in 10 favor increased spending on K-12 schools and on reducing the state’s debt, while a majority oppose increased spending on corrections. (pages 12-13) „ Residents favor increased state funding for K-12 education, health and human services, infrastructure, and public colleges and universities. They are split on whether the state should spend more on prisons and corrections and are divided along party lines on whether to provide more services through higher taxes. (pages 13-15) Percent all adults Governor's Approval Ratings 80 Approve 70 Disapprove 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2006 2006 2007 2005 2005 2004 2004 July Jan July Jan July Jan Jan Most Important Issue for Governor and Legislature to Work On Percent all adults 40 35 30 25 22 20 18 15 13 10 5 0 7 5 StaHteealbthuEdcdgauertcJe,,aotdibIhesoef,mina,lcemitictsh,gcortchnaaoootixsoltmoessyns Preference for State Spending on Prisons and Corrections 6 34 29 Percent all adults 31 More money Less money Same amount Don't know 7 Californians and Their Government JOB PERFORMANCE RATINGS FOR STATE OFFICIALS The new legislative session opens with the legislature enjoying a significant boost in its job approval rating, although it still lags far behind the job approval ratings of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. California adults are now divided in their overall assessment of the legislature (40% approve, 44% disapprove) compared to far more negative reviews in our October pre-election survey (30% approve, 52% disapprove) and our January 2006 survey (29% approve, 57% disapprove). The legislature’s approval ratings are more positive today than at any time in 2005 and 2006. Democrats today are more likely than independents or Republicans to approve of the legislature’s job performance. Legislative approval ratings are also higher among Latinos than whites (52% to 35%). Approval ratings decline with age, education, homeownership, and income. Likely voters are similar to all adults in their approval of the legislature’s job performance. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California legislature is handling its job?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Approve 40% 46% 32% 37% 37% Disapprove 44 39 55 51 49 Don't know 16 15 13 12 14 At the start of his second term, Governor Schwarzenegger has seen a sharp increase in his approval rating. Today, 58 percent of adults approve of his overall performance in office, an 11-point increase since our October survey (47%) and an 18-point increase from a year ago (40%). In fact, his approval ratings are now higher than at any time since January 2005, when they stood at 60 percent. Today, the GOP governor has the support of a majority of Democrats and independents as well as solid majority support among Republicans. His job approval ratings are higher among whites than Latinos (66% to 45%), and his approval ratings also increase with age, education, income, and homeownership. More than half of residents in all four major regions of the state approve of his job performance. We find little difference in his approval ratings between likely voters and all adults. Approve Disapprove Don't know “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind 58% 55% 72% 60% 61% 32 35 21 29 30 10 10 7 11 9 As Californians look forward in the new year, 55 percent think the state is heading in the right direction, while 37 percent believe it is heading in the wrong direction. Views about the state economy are similarly optimistic: 50 percent of California adults are expecting good economic times over the next 12 months, while 39 percent anticipate bad economic times. Last October, 44 percent said the state was headed in the right direction, and 50 percent expected good economic times. A year ago, only 37 percent said the state was headed in the right direction, while 48 percent expected good economic times. 8 PPIC Statewide Survey State Issues GOVERNOR’S REPORT CARD The governor’s approval ratings on five specific issues show a range of public support. However, the time trends point to recent improvements in the governor’s report card. Today, 55 percent of adults approve of the way he is handling environmental issues (the governor has already signed legislation and is now proposing new legislation to address the issue of global warming). Majorities of Democrats, Republicans, independents, and likely voters approve of his job performance on environmental issues. The governor’s current job approval ratings on environmental issues are the highest recorded in PPIC Statewide Surveys in two and a half years (39% July 2004, 32% July 2005, 39% July 2006, 55% today). Nearly half of all state residents (47%) approve of the governor’s handling of the state budget and taxes. Republicans offer a more favorable assessment than Democrats or independents but overall, the assessments by likely voters and all adults are similar. The governor’s current performance ratings on the budget are the highest he’s received in PPIC Statewide Surveys since January 2005 (48% approve). The governor receives mixed reviews on his handling of health care policy, both among all residents (43% approve, 40% disapprove) and among likely voters (43% approve, 42% disapprove). He receives slightly higher ratings from Democrats and independents than from Republicans. We currently have no data on trends over time for health care policy. In the wake of the recent passage of the infrastructure bonds in November, Californians are much more likely to approve than disapprove of the governor’s handling of transportation and traffic congestion (43% to 34%), while nearly one in four are undecided. The ratings offered by likely voters and all adults are similar. Republicans are more likely than independents or Democrats to give the governor positive ratings on this issue. The governor’s ratings today are higher than last year (38%) or two years ago (35%). The governor’s handling of K-12 education trails other specific ratings, as it did in January 2005 and January 2006, with adults and likely voters today about evenly divided. The proportion of Republicans offering positive ratings is far higher than among Democrats or independents. The governor’s approval ratings on public education are the highest since we began asking this question in January 2005. “Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Schwarzenegger is handling …” Environmental issues in California? Approve Disapprove Don't know The issue of the state budget and taxes? Approve Disapprove Don't know The issue of health care policy in California? Approve Disapprove Don't know The issue of transportation and traffic congestion? Approve Disapprove Don't know The state's kindergarten through twelfth grade public education system? Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 55% 25 20 47 39 14 43 40 17 43 34 23 40 39 21 Dem 54% 27 19 41 44 15 44 40 16 36 40 24 31 47 22 Party Rep 63% 19 18 62 26 12 39 43 18 53 24 23 51 30 19 Likely Ind Voters 56% 57% 26 25 18 18 50 50 40 37 10 13 43 43 42 42 15 15 42 41 36 34 22 25 33 38 44 41 23 21 January 2007 9 Californians and Their Government GOVERNOR AND STATE LEGISLATURE IN 2007 When Californians were asked to name the most important issue for the governor and legislature to work on this year (see chart on page 7), residents most often mentioned immigration (22%) and education and schools (18%), followed closely by health care (13%). Lower percentages mentioned jobs and the economy (7%), the state budget and taxes (5%), and other issues such as crime, the environment, gas prices, housing, and infrastructure. A year ago, more Californians were concerned about education (25%) and the state budget (12%), and fewer mentioned immigration (11%) and health care (5%). After a year in which bipartisan agreements were reached on many bills and on infrastructure bond measures for the ballot, six in 10 adults (62%) and likely voters (60%) are optimistic that the governor and legislature will be able to work together during the new legislative session. Majorities of Californians across political, regional, age, education, gender, homeownership, income, and racial/ethnic groups expect that the governor and legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot. Expectations that the legislature and governor could work together were similar among election voters in November (58%), but were much lower among adults (43%) and likely voters (41%) last January. “Do you think that Governor Schwarzenegger and the state legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year, or not?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind Voters Yes, will be able to work together 62% 63% 58% 63% 60% No, will not be able to work together 29 25 34 31 30 Don't know 9 12 8 6 10 STATE OF THE STATE ADDRESS As Governor Schwarzenegger begins his second term in office, about half of adults (47%) and likely voters (51%) say they have a favorable impression of the governor’s State of the State address. Opinions of his annual speech are much more favorable than they were a year ago (34%) and higher than in 2005 (42%) and 2004 (44%). Today, Republicans (54%), independents (49%), and Democrats (46%) all express generally positive reactions, but responses to specific proposals in the speech are even more positive. More than three in four adults (76%) and likely voters (77%) favor the governor’s proposal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by creating a low carbon standard for motor vehicle fuel. Supporters outnumber opponents by more than four to one, with fewer than one in five opposed. Strong majorities in all political parties support this proposal, although favor is higher among Democrats (86%) and independents (79%) than Republicans (62%). More than seven in 10 in all regions and demographic groups favor this proposal. Favor Oppose Don't know “How about the creation of a low carbon fuel standard that would reduce greenhouse gas emissions produced by vehicles?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 76% 86% 62% 79% 18 9 32 16 6565 Likely Voters 77% 18 5 10 PPIC Statewide Survey State Issues STATE OF THE STATE ADDRESS (CONTINUED) In the wake of the passage of five infrastructure bonds in November, 63 percent of adults and 58 percent of likely voters favor the governor’s proposal to sell another $43.3 billion in bonds for construction of schools, prisons, reservoirs, and other infrastructure projects. Three in 10 adults and 35 percent of likely voters are opposed. Again, support is higher among Democrats (66%) and independents (61%) than among Republicans (54%). A majority in all regions and demographic groups approve of the idea. “How about a plan for $43.3 billion in new infrastructure bonds to increase funding for education facilities, corrections and prisons, water storage and flood control, courthouses, and other infrastructure projects?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Favor 63% 66% 54% 61% 58% Oppose 30 28 39 31 35 Don't know 76787 GOVERNOR’S HEALTH CARE PROPOSAL Seven in 10 adults and 65 percent of likely voters say they favor a plan mentioned by the governor on January 8th that would require all Californians to have health insurance, with costs shared by employers, health care providers, and individuals. Fewer than one in three adults (23%) and likely voters (28%) are opposed to this idea. While a majority in all political groups approve of the governor’s health care plan, Democrats (79%) and independents (68%) are considerably more enthusiastic than Republicans (55%). More than six in 10 residents in all regions and demographic groups favor the proposal. However, support is higher among Latinos than whites (86% to 62%) and declines with age, education, and income. Favor Oppose Don't know “How about a plan requiring all Californians to have health insurance, with costs shared by employers, health care providers, and individuals?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind 71% 79% 55% 68% 65% 23 15 39 27 28 66657 Californians are even more favorably disposed toward the governor’s proposal to have the state provide medical coverage for children in lower-income families (under $60,000 annual income for a family of four). More than three in four adults (79%) and 72 percent of likely voters favor this idea. Fewer than one in four is opposed. As with the health insurance proposal noted above, majorities in all political groups favor providing state medical coverage to low-income children, but support is stronger among Democrats (86%) and independents (77%) than among Republicans (59%). At least 70 percent in all regions and demographic groups favor this policy. Support for this proposal drops markedly, however, when residents are asked specifically about providing medical coverage to low-income children regardless of their immigration status. In this case, 56 percent of adults favor the idea, while 40 percent are opposed. Among likely voters, opposition exceeds support (50% to 46%). Democrats continue to favor the proposal (65%), but independents are more divided (48% favor, 47% oppose) and a solid number of Republicans are opposed (68%). January 2007 11 Californians and Their Government GOVERNOR’S HEALTH CARE PROPOSAL (CONTINUED) When asked about providing medical coverage for low-income children without regard to their immigration status, residents in Los Angeles (61% favor, 36% oppose) and the San Francisco Bay Area (60% favor, 36% oppose) remain favorable, while those in the Central Valley (50% favor, 45% oppose) and Other Southern California region (50% favor, 46% oppose) are more divided. Latinos strongly support this proposal (86% favor, 12% oppose), while most white residents oppose it (54% oppose, 41% favor). Support also declines among older, more affluent, and more educated Californians. Overall, of those who favor providing state medical coverage to lower-income children, two in three are still in favor if coverage extends to all children, regardless of immigration status, while three in 10 become opposed. “Please say whether you favor or oppose the following plans and policies presented by Governor Schwarzenegger …” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind A plan to guarantee medical coverage for children of lowincome families, that is a family of four earning under $60,000 a year? Favor Oppose Don't know 79% 86% 59% 77% 18 11 36 18 3355 Favor 56 65 27 48 What if this plan covered children of low- income families regardless Oppose of their immigration status? 40 31 68 47 Don't know 4 4 5 5 Likely Voters 72% 24 4 46 50 4 GOVERNOR’S BUDGET PROPOSAL Two in three Californians are satisfied with the 2007-08 budget proposal released by the governor on January 10th, which calls for increased funding in the four largest budget categories (K-12 education, health and human services, higher education, and prisons and corrections) without raising taxes. Satisfaction with the budget proposal this year is higher than it was last January for last year’s budget proposal among all adults (68% to 60%) and among likely voters (65% to 58%). Reactions this year are much more favorable than they were in January 2005 (38% satisfied) and are even more positive than in 2004 (57% satisfied). This year, strong majorities of residents in all political groups are satisfied with the proposed new budget. “In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the governor's budget plan?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Satisfied 68% 65% 69% 71% 65% Dissatisfied 23 25 23 22 25 Haven't heard anything about the budget (vol.) 3 3 2 1 2 Don't know 67668 As for the specific use of additional revenues proposed in the governor’s budget, 79 percent of adults and 73 percent of likely voters favor increasing funding for K-12 public schools. The percentages in January 2006 were nearly identical (78% of adults, 73% of likely voters). Although majorities in all parties favor using the additional revenues for schools, support is higher among Democrats (86%) and independents (80%) than Republicans (63%). Latinos are more in favor of using additional revenues for schools than are whites (91% to 73%), and support declines with age, education, and income. 12 PPIC Statewide Survey State Issues GOVERNOR’S BUDGET PROPOSAL (CONTINUED) A similar 78 percent of adults favor using the additional revenues to reduce the amount of state debt. More than eight in 10 likely voters (83%) also favor this option. This is similar to the support expressed in January 2006, when 76 percent of adults and 83 percent of likely voters wanted to pay down debt. As in January 2006, Republicans today are especially positive about using additional state revenues for this purpose (87%), but more than three in four independents (79%) and Democrats (78%) also favor this idea. Support for this use of additional revenues increases with age, income, and education. Californians, however, appear to part ways with their governor on the issue of using additional revenues for prisons and corrections. Only about four in 10 adults and likely voters approve of using additional revenues for this purpose. While opposition exceeds support across all political parties and in all regions, opposition increases with education and income, and Latinos are as likely to oppose (47%) as to favor (49%) this particular use of additional revenues. This question was not asked in 2006. “The state will have somewhat more revenue this year than was expected. Do you favor or oppose the following proposals for how to use this year’s additional money in next year’s budget?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind Voters Increase K-12 public education funding Favor Oppose Don't know 79% 86% 63% 80% 73% 19 11 35 20 25 232 - 2 Reduce the amount of state debt Favor Oppose Don't know 78 78 87 79 83 18 18 9 19 13 44424 Increase funding for prisons and corrections Favor Oppose Don't know 41 39 44 38 38 54 55 53 60 57 56325 GENERAL FISCAL PREFERENCES AND PRIORITIES Californians appear to be willing to embrace most of the governor’s proposals that do not include any new taxes, but are instead funded through existing general fund revenues and new borrowing through state bonds. Were his proposals to include new taxes, residents’ responses may be different: 53% of Californians say they would prefer paying more taxes and having a state government that provides more services, while 40 percent would prefer paying lower taxes and having fewer government services. Likely voters are more divided on this issue (49% higher taxes, 44% lower taxes). “In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more – I’d rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, or I’d rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services …” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Higher taxes and more services 53% 69% 27% 53% 49% Lower taxes and fewer services 40 24 67 40 44 Don't know 77 6 77 January 2007 13 Californians and Their Government GENERAL FISCAL PREFERENCES AND PRIORITIES (CONTINUED) Between February 2003 through May 2005, the preference for higher taxes among adults ranged from 43 percent to 51 percent. Support for higher taxes was highest in January 2006 (61%) but has been declining since (55% May 2006, 53% today). Today, Democrats (69%) and liberals (75%) strongly favor higher taxes and more services, while Republicans (67%) and conservatives (55%) favor lower taxes and fewer services. Independents favor higher taxes and more services (53%), while 49 percent of moderates favor higher taxes and 42 percent favor lower taxes. Preference for higher taxes and more government services is lower among whites (47%) than Latinos (65%) and declines with increasing age, education, income, and homeownership. When asked about five of the state’s largest areas of spending, majorities of Californians say they believe the state should spend more money than it does now on K-12 public education (68%), health and human services (60%), roads and other infrastructure (58%), and public colleges and universities (55%). Only in the area of prisons and corrections are residents more divided (34% more money, 31% less money, 29% same amount). This prioritization of state spending preferences is consistent with past years, except in the area of infrastructure, which ranked below public colleges and universities in February 2003. “For each of the following, please tell me if you think the state government should spend more money than it does now, the same amount as now, or less money than now …” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind Voters More money 68% 77% 50% 70% 63% How about the K-12 public education system? Same amount of money Less money 22 7 18 31 22 24 2 15 6 9 Don't know 3 3424 More money 60 71 34 60 54 How about health and human services? Same amount of money Less money 23 12 19 35 24 26 5 26 14 16 Don't know 5 5524 More money 58 61 60 59 60 How about roads and other infrastructure projects? Same amount of money Less money 30 8 28 30 31 30 7 7 10 7 Don't know 4 43 - 3 More money 55 62 37 53 50 How about public colleges and universities? Same amount of money Less money 32 10 29 44 32 34 5 16 12 12 Don't know 3 4334 More money 34 33 37 31 33 How about the state's corrections system, including prisons? Same amount of money Less money 31 29 29 35 34 32 30 22 32 30 Don't know 6 8635 14 PPIC Statewide Survey State Issues GENERAL FISCAL PREFERENCES AND PRIORITIES (CONTINUED) As in past years, more than six in 10 residents today believe the state should spend more money on K-12 public education, although Democrats (77%) are more likely than independents (70%) and Republicans (50%) to favor this idea. Solid majorities of Democrats (71%) and independents (60%) also favor increased spending on health and human services, while Republicans are more divided (34% more spending, 35% the same, 26% less). Since the governor began promoting the issue of infrastructure in January 2006, support for increased spending in this particular budget area has increased. Today, about six in 10 across parties believe that infrastructure spending should be increased. And while majorities of Democrats (62%) and independents (53%) would also like to see more state spending on higher education, Republicans prefer the status quo (44% the same, 37% more spending). Although the governor has made spending on corrections a priority in his recent budget discussions, residents are not convinced that the state should spend more money in this area (34% more, 31% the same, 29% less). Still, they are less opposed to spending more money than in previous years. Residents were also asked about whether they think the state budget situation in California (the balance between government spending and revenues) is a problem today. Fewer than half believe it is a big problem (45%), which is far fewer than in January 2006 (61%), and especially January 2005 (70%) and January 2004 (70%). These findings reflect the state’s fiscal reality. In 2004 and 2005, the state faced multibillion dollar deficits. These deficits have declined significantly since then. Residents are also more positive about the budget situation than they were last year—32 percent believe the situation has improved in the past two years, compared to 26 percent in May 2006 and 21 percent in January 2006. Despite the governor’s improving job approval rating and the high level of public satisfaction with his proposed budget, Californians are more likely to say they prefer the approach of Democrats in the legislature (38%) when it comes to making tough budget choices. Twenty-two percent prefer the governor’s approach and 21 percent prefer the approach of Republican legislators. “When it comes to the tough choices involved in the state budget, both in deciding how much Californians should pay in taxes and how to fund state programs, whose approach do you most prefer — Governor Schwarzenegger’s, the Democrats’ in the legislature, or the Republicans’ in the legislature?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Democrats’ approach 38% 67% 7% 28% 38% Governor’s approach 22 14 33 26 23 Republicans’ approach 21 5 48 23 24 None (volunteered) 3 316 4 Other (specify) 2 122 2 Don't know 14 10 9 15 9 In January 2004, residents favored the governor (33%) over legislative Democrats (27%), and in May 2004, they were more divided (30% governor, 31% Democrats) when asked whose approach they most preferred. Since January 2005, pluralities of adult residents have favored the Democratic legislators in each of five PPIC Statewide Surveys. Across parties today, a strong majority of Democrats (67%) prefer the legislative Democrats’ approach, Republicans generally prefer the approach of legislative Republicans (48%), and independents are divided (28% Democrats’, 26% governor’s, 23% Republicans’). Across regions and demographic groups, pluralities prefer the legislative Democrats’ budgetary approach. January 2007 15 NATIONAL ISSUES KEY FINDINGS „ Ratings of Congress remain mixed (42% approve, 44% disapprove) but have gained five points since the November election. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has favorable ratings from about half of state residents and likely voters. (page 18) „ Majorities of California adults (56%) and likely voters (52%) approve of Democratic congressional leaders’ plans and policies for the future. Fewer, however, think the President and Congress will be able to work together. (page 19) „ President Bush’s job approval ratings continue to decline, with nearly seven in 10 California adults and likely voters disapproving. About six in 10 disapprove of his handling of health care policy. Only one in five approves of his handling of Iraq --- a new low. (page 20) „ Pessimism about Iraq is at a new high. A majority of Californians (52%) say that things in Iraq are going “not at all well.” Nearly seven in 10 adults think it was not worth going to war in Iraq. (page 21) „ Californians strongly oppose Bush’s proposal to send additional troops to Iraq (70%). Nearly nine in 10 Democrats, seven in 10 independents, and 36 percent of Republicans are opposed. (page 22) „ A solid majority of Californians believe the federal government spends too little on health care. A majority would prefer a universal health insurance system over the current system, and they favor this change even if it increases taxes. (page 23) Percent all adults President's Approval Ratings 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Approve Disapprove 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 July Jan July Jan July Jan Jan Direction of the Country Percent all adults 100 80 60 60 40 34 20 73 23 Right direction Wrong direction 52 43 65 29 0 All adults Dem Rep Ind Impression of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi 100 Favorable Unfavorable 80 72 Percent all adults 60 49 40 26 20 55 50 24 11 26 0 All adults Dem Rep Ind 17 Californians and Their Government ATTITUDES TOWARD U.S. CONGRESS As the new congressional session gets started, how do Californians view Congress? Residents give mixed ratings, with 42 percent approving of the way Congress is handling its job and 44 percent disapproving. Likely voters are inclined to be more negative: A majority (51%) disapproves while 37 percent approves. Nonetheless, these ratings represent a sizeable improvement from last September, before the midterm election, when fewer adults (37%) and likely voters (31%) had a favorable view of Congress. Californians’ approval today is similar to the high point seen when we first asked this question in October 2005 (42% approve, 46% disapprove), and to Americans nationwide, according to a January 2007 Washington Post-ABC News poll (43% approve, 50% disapprove). Democrats (46%) and independents (40%) are more positive than Republicans (36%) toward the new Democratic-majority Congress. Approval is also higher in Los Angeles (46%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (44%) than in the Other Southern California (43%) region and the Central Valley (38%). Latinos (56%) are far more likely to approve of Congress than are whites (36%). Approval ratings for Congress decrease among older, more educated, and higher-income residents. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Approve 42 46 36 40 37 Disapprove 44 40 53 49 51 Don’t know 14 14 11 11 12 Most Californians give positive responses when asked about their early impressions of Nancy Pelosi, the new speaker of the House. About half of all adults (49%) and likely voters (51%) give the California congresswoman a favorable rating, while 26 percent of all adults and 32 percent of likely voters give her an unfavorable one. A national survey by Newsweek earlier this month found Pelosi’s ratings to be 36 percent favorable and 23 percent unfavorable among all adults. Pelosi’s favorability ratings are highest in the San Francisco Bay Area (63%), which includes her congressional district, and drop to 49 percent in Los Angeles, 43 percent in the Other Southern California region, and 39 percent in the Central Valley. A strong partisan divide exists, with 72 percent of Democrats and 50 percent of independents viewing Pelosi favorably, and 55 percent of Republicans viewing her unfavorably. “Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi?” Favorable All Adults 49 Region Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles 39 63 49 Other Southern California 43 Likely Voters 51 Unfavorable 26 29 21 24 29 32 Don't know 25 32 16 27 28 17 Who should take the lead in solving the nation’s problems? California adults (53%) and likely voters (50%) pick Democratic congressional leaders as their top choice, while about one in three adults (30%) and likely voters (32%) say President Bush should take the lead. Californians’ preferences for leadership in solving the nation’s problems are similar to Americans as a whole, according to a November 2006 Pew Research Center poll (29% Bush, 51% Democrats in Congress). 18 PPIC Statewide Survey National Issues ATTITUDES TOWARD U.S. CONGRESS (CONTINUED) Californians may be divided in their assessment of the job performance of Congress as a whole, but so far they appear to like the ideas presented by the new Democratic leaders in Congress. A majority of adults (56%) and likely voters (52%) approve of the Democrats’ plans and policies. Not surprisingly, approval is much higher among Democrats (78%) and independents (57%) than among Republicans (20%). Californians are slightly more approving of Democratic leaders’ plans than are adults nationwide, according to the November 2006 Pew Research Center poll (50% approve, 21% disapprove). Approval is higher in the more Democratic-leaning areas of the state, including the San Francisco Bay Area (63%) and Los Angeles (58%), than in the Other Southern California region (51%) or in the Central Valley (48%), which are more Republican in their political leanings. Latinos (69%) are much more approving of the Democratic congressional leaders’ plans and politics than are whites (48%). Among residents who approve of the Democrats’ plans and policies, 75 percent would like to see the Democratic Congress take the lead in solving the nation’s problems, while among those who disapprove, 63 percent prefer to have President Bush take the lead. Approve Disapprove Don’t know “As best you can tell, do you approve or disapprove of Democratic congressional leaders’ policies and plans for the future?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 56 78 20 57 28 9 61 26 16 13 19 17 Likely Voters 52 32 16 Californians are not optimistic about President Bush and Congress working together in the next year. Only 38 percent of all adults, and even fewer likely voters (30%), think that they will be able to work together and accomplish a lot. In a relatively rare instance of agreement, Californians are similarly pessimistic across political parties. This response is very different from the expectation of bipartisan cooperation that Californians have for their own state leaders (62% say governor and legislature will work together, 29% say they will not). Latinos (58%) are more optimistic than whites (29%) about cooperation between the president and Congress this year. Pessimism increases sharply with age, education, income, and homeownership. This negative outlook is similar in California and across the nation. According to a CBS News Poll earlier this month, only 41 percent nationwide thought the president and Congress would be able to work together, while 51 percent thought they would not. Among California adults who think the two branches of government will not be able to accomplish much this year, 74 percent think the country is going in the wrong direction. “Do you think President Bush and the U.S. Congress will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year, or not?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Yes, will be able to work together 38 34 35 35 30 No, will not be able to work together 56 61 61 59 65 Don’t know 65 4 6 5 January 2007 19 Californians and Their Government PRESIDENT’S APPROVAL RATINGS Overall, six in 10 Californians (60%) think things in the country are headed in the wrong direction and only 34 percent think they are headed in the right direction, with voters divided along party lines (see chart on page 17). Californians are more optimistic than adults nationwide, according to the January Washington Post-ABC News poll (26% right direction). Californians’ views are similar today as in October 2006 (62% wrong direction), but more are pessimistic than in January 2005 (51% wrong direction). Approval of President Bush has reached a new low among Californians: Only 29 percent approve of his job performance, while 68 percent disapprove. Bush’s approval ratings have now hit a new low three times in a row, dropping from 33 percent in September 2006 to 32 percent in October 2006 to 29 percent today. Since January 2002, his approval has fallen 51 points. Californians are similar to the nation, according to the Washington Post-ABC News poll (33% approve, 65% disapprove). Among California residents, sharp partisan differences exist in ratings of Bush. Nine in 10 Democrats (89%) and seven in 10 independents (69%) disapprove of his performance, while 58 percent of Republicans approve. Still, six in 10 or more in all regions and demographic groups disapprove of Bush. Ratings of Bush’s performance on health care policy are also negative, with 29 percent approving and 58 percent disapproving of his handling of this area. As with Bush’s overall rating, a strong majority of Democrats (79%) and independents (64%) disapprove, while 48 percent of Republicans approve. Bush’s approval ratings are even lower when it comes to the situation in Iraq. Only 22 percent of Californians approve of the way he is handling this issue, while three in four disapprove. Nationwide, Americans are more approving, according to the Washington Post-ABC News poll (29% approve, 70% disapprove). Californians’ disapproval of the president’s Iraq policies has risen since September 2006 when the disapproval level was 68 percent and has climbed 10 points since January 2006 when it stood at 65 percent. Again, a sharp partisan divide exists, with nine in 10 Democrats (91%) and eight in 10 independents (78%) disapproving, while 51 percent of Republicans approve. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling…” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind Voters His job as president of the United States? Approve Disapprove Don’t know 29 9 58 29 29 68 89 37 69 68 32523 Approve 29 14 48 24 27 Health care policy? Disapprove 58 79 35 64 62 Don’t know 13 7 17 12 11 Approve 22 7 51 18 26 The situation in Iraq? Disapprove 75 91 45 78 72 Don’t know 32442 Californians are also negative about Bush’s handling of the federal budget and taxes, with 32 percent approving and 59 percent disapproving. His approval in this area was similar in October 2005 (30%); it is down from two years ago (40% January 2005). Today, eight in 10 Democrats (79%) and six in 10 independents (62%) disapprove, while 60 percent of Republicans like the way he is handing fiscal issues. 20 PPIC Statewide Survey National Issues SITUATION IN IRAQ With the Iraq war almost four years old, what do Californians now think about it? When asked how things are going for the U.S. in Iraq, only one in five residents says that things are going very well (3%) or somewhat well (17%), while nearly eight in 10 think that things are going not too well (26%) or not at all well (52%). This marks the first time in a PPIC Statewide Survey that more than half of Californians think things are going not at all well, and is a 15-point increase in this response from last January (37%). Californians are more pessimistic about Iraq than is the rest of nation. According to a recent Pew Research Center poll, six in 10 Americans think things are going not too well (32%) or not at all well (30%). In California today, there are sharp partisan differences over this issue. About seven in 10 Democrats (71%) and more than of independents (53%) say things are going not at all well, compared to one in four Republicans (25%) who say things are going not at all well for the U.S. in Iraq. Still, among Republicans this highly negative assessment has increased by 15 points since last January (10%). About one in four or fewer adults across regions of the state express positive sentiments about the situation in Iraq. About three in four or more adults across age, education, income, racial/ethnic, and gender groups are pessimistic, with nearly half in all groups saying things are going not at all well. Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Don’t know “In general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 3153 17 9 30 20 26 18 38 23 52 71 25 53 2121 Likely Voters 3 19 24 53 1 A majority of California adults (69%) continue to think that it was not worth going to war in Iraq. Positive sentiments have dipped to a new low, with only 27 percent of Californians thinking the war was worth it. These findings are slightly more negative than those in September 2006 (30% worth it, 65% not worth it) and positive assessments have dropped seven points since last January. In the January 2007 Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll, Americans as a whole were more positive (34% worth it, 62% not worth it) than Californians about the worthiness of the war. Again, Democrats (88%) and independents (70%) are much more likely than Republicans (36%) to think it was not worth going to war in Iraq. More than six in 10 residents in all regions say the war was not worth it. Latinos are considerably more negative than whites (77% to 62%), and women are somewhat more negative than men (71% to 66%) about this issue. Yes, worth it No, not worth it Don’t know “All in all, do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq, or not?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 27 10 58 27 69 88 36 70 4263 Likely Voters 31 65 4 January 2007 21 Californians and Their Government SITUATION IN IRAQ (CONTINUED) The need for additional U.S. military forces was the focal point of the president’s recent proposal on Iraq. What do Californians think about this new policy? Seven in 10 Californians (70%) oppose an increase in troops, while 26 percent support it. Once again, Californians are more negative than the rest of the country. Nationwide, 65 percent of Americans opposed this policy and 34 percent supported it in the Washington Post-ABC News poll. As with other attitudes about the Iraq war, deep partisan divisions are present in California. Democrats (87%) and independents (71%) are much more likely than Republicans (36%) to oppose a troop increase. Across the state at least six in 10 or more residents in each region oppose this policy, with Los Angeles (77%) and the San Francisco Bay Area residents (73%) voicing the greatest opposition. Latinos are much more likely than whites (83% to 61%) and women are more likely than men (74% to 66%) to oppose this policy. Support for sending more troops to Iraq increases with higher age and income. Support Oppose Don’t know “Do you support or oppose President Bush's proposal to send approximately 22,000 additional U.S. military forces to Iraq?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind 26 10 59 24 32 70 87 36 71 64 43554 Most Californians are not optimistic when asked about the likelihood of a stable democratic government being established in Iraq, with 31 percent saying that it is likely (7% very, 24% somewhat) and 65 percent stating that is not too (32%) or not at all (33%) likely. In a recent Associated Press/Ipsos Poll, 38 percent of Americans said a stable Iraq is likely, while 60 percent said it is unlikely. Sentiment regarding a stable democratic government in Iraq is sharply divided across political parties in California, with at least seven in 10 Democrats (74%) and independents (70%) stating that stability in Iraq is not too likely or not at all likely, while only 46 percent of Republicans hold this view. Fewer than four in 10 residents across the state’s regions think it is very likely or somewhat likely that a stable government in Iraq will be established; residents of the Other Southern California region are the most optimistic. More than six in 10 residents across age, education, income, racial/ethnic, and gender groups think it is not too likely or not at all likely that a stable democratic government will be established in Iraq. “How likely is it that a stable democratic government will be established in Iraq?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Very likely 74855 Somewhat likely 24 18 45 24 28 Not too likely 32 31 28 36 31 Not at all likely 33 43 18 34 33 Don’t know 44113 22 PPIC Statewide Survey National Issues HEALTH CARE POLICY As California’s state policymakers consider a variety of proposals to extend health coverage for the state’s residents, a majority of Californians (61%) think that the federal government is spending too little on health care. Democrats (73%) and independents (60%) are far more likely to hold this view than Republicans (39%). In a national survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation last November, 67 percent of adults nationwide said that the federal government spends too little on health care. Californians prefer a universal health insurance system, in which everyone is covered under a government program like Medicare, over the current system in which most health insurance is provided by employers or purchased privately. While three in 10 residents prefer the current system, six in 10 would opt for a universal health plan. Opinions regarding this issue vary sharply across party lines, with strong support for the current health insurance system among Republicans (58%) but strong support among independents (59%) and even more so among Democrats (73%) for changing to a universal health insurance program. Preference for a change to a universal health insurance program today is similar to the PPIC Statewide Surveys in September 2005 (59%) and September 2004 (60%). “Which would you prefer: (1) the current health insurance system in the United States, in which most people get their health insurance from private employers, but some people have no insurance, (or) (2) a universal health insurance program, in which everyone is covered under a program like Medicare that is run by the government and financed by taxpayers?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Current system 31 18 58 32 37 Universal health insurance system 61 73 36 59 54 Don’t know 89 6 9 9 In addition, 63 percent of all adults and 59 percent of likely voters say they favor the U.S. government guaranteeing health insurance for all citizens even if it means raising taxes. While Republicans are opposed to raising taxes for this purpose, Democrats and independents are strongly in favor of it. The preference for this proposal among adults today is the same as it was in September 2005 (63% favor). Favor Oppose Don’t know “Do you favor or oppose the U.S. government guaranteeing health insurance for all citizens, even if it means raising taxes?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind 63 76 41 64 59 34 20 56 32 38 34 3 4 3 A majority of Californians (55%) also believe the state government is spending too little on health care. More Democrats (68%) hold this perspective than independents (53%), while only 33 percent of Republicans have this perception about the level of state spending on health care. Moreover, 71 percent of Californians favor the state government making its own policies, separate from the federal government, to address the issue of health care. A strong preference for separate state government policies to address the issue of health care is found among likely voters (75%), across all political groups (77% Democrats, 68% Republicans, 74% independents), and the major regions of the state, and age, education, gender, homeownership, income, and racial/ethnic groups. January 2007 23 REGIONAL MAP 24 METHODOLOGY The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, research director and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance in research and writing from Jennifer Paluch, project manager for this survey, and survey research associates Dean Bonner and Sonja Petek. The surveys were conducted with funding from The James Irvine Foundation and benefited from discussions with foundation staff and grantees; however, survey methods, questions, and content of this report were solely determined by Mark Baldassare. The findings of this survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,014 California adult residents interviewed January 11-18, 2007. Interviewing took place on weekday nights and weekend days, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All telephone exchanges in California were eligible. Telephone numbers in the survey sample were called up to six times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Each interview took an average of 18 minutes to complete. Interviewing was conducted in English or Spanish. Accent on Languages translated the survey into Spanish with assistance from Renatta DeFever. Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas, Inc. conducted the telephone interviewing. We used recent U.S. Census and state figures to compare the demographic characteristics of the survey sample with characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the census and state figures. The survey data in this report were statistically weighted to account for any demographic differences. The sampling error for the total sample of 2,014 adults is +/- 2 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 2 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger: For the 1,567 registered voters, it is +/- 2.5 percent; for the 1,180 likely voters it is +/- 3 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. Throughout the report, we present results for four geographic regions accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, and “Other Southern California” includes Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. Residents from other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters. However, sample sizes for these less populated areas are not large enough to report separately in tables and text. We present specific results for Latinos because they account for about 30 percent of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest growing voter groups. The sample sizes for African Americans and Asians are not large enough for separate analysis. We do compare the opinions of registered Democrats, Republicans, and independents (those who are registered to vote as “decline to state”). We also include the responses of “likely voters”— those who are most likely to vote in the state’s elections based on past voting, current interest, and vote intentions. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey responses to earlier PPIC Statewide Surveys and we compare PPIC Statewide Survey responses to those in national surveys by Associated Press/Ipsos, Washington Post-ABC News, CBS News, Kaiser Family Foundation, Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg, Newsweek and the Pew Research Center. 25 QUESTIONNAIRE AND RESULTS CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT January 11-18, 2007 2,014 California Adult Residents: English, Spanish MARGIN OF ERROR +/-2% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE 1. First, which one issue facing California today do you think is the most important for the governor and state legislature to work on in 2007? [code, don’t read] 22% immigration, illegal immigration 18 education, schools 13 health care, health costs 7 jobs, economy 5 state budget, deficit, taxes 4 crime, gangs, drugs 4 environment, pollution 4 infrastructure, traffic, transportation 2 gas prices 11 other 10 don’t know 2. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California? 58% approve 32 disapprove 10 don’t know [rotate questions 3 to 7] 3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Schwarzenegger is handling the issue of the state budget and taxes? 47% approve 39 disapprove 14 don’t know 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Schwarzenegger is handling the state’s kindergarten through 12th grade public education system? 40% approve 39 disapprove 21 don’t know 5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Schwarzenegger is handling the issue of transportation and traffic congestion? 43% approve 34 disapprove 23 don’t know 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Schwarzenegger is handling environmental issues in California? 55% approve 25 disapprove 20 don’t know 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Schwarzenegger is handling the issue of health care policy in California? 43% approve 40 disapprove 17 don’t know 8. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California legislature is handling its job? 40% approve 44 disapprove 16 don’t know 27 Californians and Their Government 9. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 55% right direction 37 wrong direction 8 don’t know 10.Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 50% good times 39 bad times 11 don’t know 11.On another topic, do you think the state budget situation in California—that is, the balance between government spending and revenues—is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today? 45% big problem 42 somewhat of a problem 7 not a problem 6 don’t know 12.In the past two years, do you think the state budget situation has improved, gotten worse, or stayed the same? 32% improved 24 gotten worse 36 stayed the same 8 don’t know Now, I am going to ask about specific areas where the State of California spends money. For each area, please tell me if you think that the state government should spend more money than it does now, the same amount as now, or less money than now. [rotate questions 13 to 17] 13.How about the state’s corrections system, including prisons? 34% more money 31 same amount of money 29 less money 6 don’t know 14.How about the K-12 public education system? 68% more money 22 same amount of money 7 less money 3 don’t know 15.How about public colleges and universities? 55% more money 32 same amount of money 10 less money 3 don’t know 16.How about health and human services? 60% more money 23 same amount of money 12 less money 5 don’t know 17.How about roads and other infrastructure projects? 58% more money 30 same amount of money 8 less money 4 don’t know 18.When it comes to the tough choices involved in the state budget, both in deciding how much Californians should pay in taxes and how to fund state programs, whose approach do you most prefer—[rotate] (1) Governor Schwarzenegger’s, (2) the Democrats’ in the legislature, [or] (3) the Republicans’ in the legislature? 38% Democrats’ 22 Governor Schwarzenegger’s 21 Republicans’ 3 none (volunteered) 2 other (specify) 14 don’t know 28 PPIC Statewide Survey 19.And, in general, which of the following statements do you agree with more—I’d rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, or I’d rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services? 53% higher taxes and more services 40 lower taxes and fewer services 7 don’t know 20.Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of the plans and policies for California that Governor Schwarzenegger presented in his recent State of the State speech? 47% favorable 24 unfavorable 20 haven’t heard about the speech (volunteered) 9 don’t know Next, please tell me if you favor or oppose the following plans and policies that the governor presented in his speech. [rotate questions 21 to 24; rotate questions 22 to 23 as a set] 21.How about a plan for $43.3 billion in new infrastructure bonds to increase funding for education facilities, corrections and prisons, water storage and flood control, courthouses, and other infrastructure projects? 63% favor 30 oppose 7 don’t know [question 22a must follow 22] 22.How about a plan to guarantee medical coverage for children of low-income families, that is, a family of four earning under $60,000 a year? 79% favor 18 oppose 3 don’t know Questionnaire and Results 22a.What if this plan covered children of lowincome families regardless of their immigration status? 56% favor 40 oppose 4 don’t know 23.How about a plan requiring all Californians to have health insurance, with costs shared by employers, health care providers, and individuals? 71% favor 23 oppose 6 don’t know 24.How about the creation of a low carbon fuel standard that would reduce greenhouse gas emissions produced by vehicles? 76% favor 18 oppose 6 don’t know 25.Do you think that Governor Schwarzenegger and the state legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year, or not? 62% yes, will be able to work together 29 no, will not be able to work together 9 don’t know 26.Recently, Governor Schwarzenegger proposed a budget plan for the next fiscal year that includes increased spending on K12 education, health and human services, higher education, and corrections and prisons. The plan includes no new taxes. In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the governor’s budget plan? 68% satisfied 23 dissatisfied 3 haven’t heard anything about the budget (volunteered) 6 don’t know January 2007 29 Californians and Their Government The state will have somewhat more revenue this year than was expected. Do you favor or oppose the following proposals for how to use this year’s additional money in next year’s budget, which begins on July 1, 2007? [rotate questions 27 to 29] 27.Do you favor or oppose using some of this additional money to increase funding for prisons and corrections? 41% favor 54 oppose 5 don’t know 28.Do you favor or oppose using some of this additional money to increase K-12 public education funding? 79% favor 19 oppose 2 don’t know 29.Do you favor or oppose using some of this additional money to reduce the amount of state debt? 78% favor 18 oppose 4 don’t know 30.Changing topics, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling his job as president of the United States? 29% approve 68 disapprove 3 don’t know [rotate questions 31 to 33] 31.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling the federal budget and taxes? 32% approve 59 disapprove 9 don’t know 30 PPIC Statewide Survey 32.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling the situation in Iraq? 22% approve 75 disapprove 3 don’t know 33.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling health care policy? 29% approve 58 disapprove 13 don’t know 34.Do you think things in the United States are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 34% right direction 60 wrong direction 6 don’t know 35.Turning to economic conditions, do you think that during the next 12 months the United States will have good times financially or bad times? 47% good times 46 bad times 7 don’t know 36.In general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq? 3% very well 17 somewhat well 26 not too well 52 not at all well 2 don’t know 37.All in all, do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq, or not? 27% yes, worth it 69 no, not worth it 4 don’t know 38.Do you support or oppose President Bush's proposal to send approximately 22,000 additional U.S. military forces to Iraq? 26% support 70 oppose 4 don’t know 39.How likely is it that a stable, democratic government will be established in Iraq? 7% very likely 24 somewhat likely 32 not too likely 33 not at all likely 4 don’t know 40.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job? 42% approve 44 disapprove 14 don’t know 41.Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi? 49% favorable 26 unfavorable 25 don’t know [skip to q42] 41a.Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? 24% strongly favorable 25 somewhat favorable 10 somewhat unfavorable 16 strongly unfavorable 25 don’t know 42.Who in Washington do you think should take the lead in solving the nation’s problems— President Bush, or the Democratic congressional leaders? 53% Democratic congressional leaders 30 President Bush 6 both (volunteered) 6 neither (volunteered) 5 don’t know 43.As best you can tell, do you approve or disapprove of Democratic congressional leaders’ policies and plans for the future? 56% approve 28 disapprove 16 don’t know Questionnaire and Results 44.Do you think President Bush and the U.S. Congress will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year, or not? 38% yes, will be able to work together 56 no, will not be able to work together 6 don’t know Next, I’d like to ask you a few questions about the health care system. [rotate questions 45 and 46] 45.Do you think the federal government spends too much, too little, or the right amount on health care? 13% too much 61 too little 18 the right amount 8 don’t know 46.Do you think the state government spends too much, too little, or the right amount on health care? 14% too much 55 too little 22 the right amount 9 don’t know 47.Do you favor or oppose the California state government making its own policies, separate from the federal government, to address the issue of health care? 71% favor 22 oppose 7 don’t know 48. Which would you prefer—[rotate] [1] the current health insurance system in the United States, in which most people get their health insurance from private employers, but some people have no insurance [or] [2] a universal health insurance program, in which everyone is covered under a program like Medicare that is run by the government and financed by taxpayers? 31% current system 61 universal health insurance system 8 don’t know January 2007 31 Californians and Their Government 49.Do you favor or oppose the U.S. government guaranteeing health insurance for all citizens, even if it means raising taxes? 63% favor 34 oppose 3 don’t know 50.Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote? 78% yes [ask q51a] 21 no [skip to q52a] 1 don’t know [skip to q52a] 51a.Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or as an independent? 42% Democrat [skip to q52b] 33 Republican [skip to q52c] 5 another party (specify) [skip to q53] 20 independent [ask q52a] 52a.Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party? 21% Republican party 49 Democratic party 23 neither (volunteered) 7 don’t know [skip to q53] 52b.Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 56% strong 41 not very strong 3 don’t know [skip to q53] 52c.Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 45% strong 53 not very strong 2 don’t know 53.Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 10% very liberal 20 somewhat liberal 31 middle-of-the-road 23 somewhat conservative 12 very conservative 4 don’t know 54.Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics? 27% great deal 43 fair amount 24 only a little 5 none 1 don’t know 32 PPIC Statewide Survey PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Angela Blackwell Founder and Chief Executive Officer PolicyLink Paul Brest President The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Mollyann Brodie Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley James E. Canales President The James Irvine Foundation Jon Cohen Director of Polling The Washington Post Matthew K. Fong President Strategic Advisory Group William Hauck President California Business Roundtable Dennis A. Hunt Vice President Communications and Public Affairs The California Endowment Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Carol S. Larson President and Chief Executive Officer The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Monica Lozano Publisher and Chief Executive Officer La Opinión Donna Lucas CEO Lucas Public Affairs Dan Rosenheim News Director KPIX-TV Carol Stogsdill President Stogsdill Consulting Cathy Taylor Vice President and Editorial Commentary Director Orange County Register Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA BOARD OF DIRECTORS Thomas C. Sutton, Chair Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Pacific Life Insurance Company Linda Griego President and Chief Executive Officer Griego Enterprises, Inc. Edward K. Hamilton Chairman Hamilton, Rabinovitz & Alschuler, Inc. Gary K. Hart Founder Institute for Education Reform California State University, Sacramento Walter B. Hewlett Director Center for Computer Assisted Research in the Humanities ADVISORY COUNCIL Stuart A.Gabriel Director and Lusk Chair Lusk Center for Real Estate University of Southern California Clifford W. Graves Elizabeth G. Hill Legislative Analyst State of California Hilary W. Hoynes Associate Professor Department of Economics University of California, Davis Andrés E. Jiménez Director California Policy Research Center University of California Office of the President Norman R. King Director, University Transportation Center California State University, San Bernardino David W. Lyon President and Chief Executive Officer Public Policy Institute of California Ki Suh Park Design and Managing Partner Gruen Associates Constance L. Rice Co-Director The Advancement Project Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center Dean Misczynski Director California Research Bureau Rudolf Nothenberg Chief Administrative Officer (Retired) City and County of San Francisco Manuel Pastor Professor, Latin American & Latino Studies University of California, Santa Cruz Peter Schrag Contributing Editor The Sacramento Bee James P. Smith Senior Economist RAND Corporation Copyright © 2007 by Public Policy Institute of California All rights reserved San Francisco, CA Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source and the above copyright notice is included. PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 800 San Francisco, California 94111 phone: 415.291.4400 fax: 415.291.4401 www.ppic.org survey@ppic.org" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 09:38:54" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(8) "s_107mbs" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:38:54" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 09:38:54" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["guid"]=> string(50) "http://148.62.4.17/wp-content/uploads/S_107MBS.pdf" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_mime_type"]=> string(15) "application/pdf" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" ["status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["attachment_authors"]=> bool(false) }