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Inaugurated in April 1998, this is the 78th PPIC Statewide Survey in a series that has generated a database that includes the responses of over 162,000 Californians. This survey is the 24th in our Californians and Their Government series, which is conducted periodically to examine the social, economic, and political trends that influence public policy preferences and ballot choices. It is supported by funding from The James Irvine Foundation. The current survey seeks to raise public awareness, inform decision makers, and stimulate public discussion of state and national issues. The survey examines Californians’ opinions about the overall direction of the state and the nation, their attitudes toward the job performance of the state and federal elected officials who represent them, and their early preferences in the 2008 presidential primaries. We also ask residents about their attitudes and preferences regarding current policy issues such as health care coverage, immigration, and Iraq. This report presents the responses of 2,003 California adult residents throughout the state on the following topics: „ State issues, including approval ratings for Governor Schwarzenegger and the state legislature; perceptions of the most important issues facing California today; opinions about the general direction of the state and the outlook for the state’s economy; and knowledge of elected state officials. We also consider perceptions of health care reform, including whether changes to the health care system are needed; levels of concern about the number of uninsured Californians; attitudes toward requiring health insurance for all Californians; opinions about the responsibility of the federal government to provide insurance for all Americans or for all children under 18; and personal levels of concern over affordable health care. „ National issues, including overall approval ratings for President Bush and his handling of immigration and the situation in Iraq; perceptions of the overall direction and economic outlook of the nation; overall approval ratings of Congress and Speaker Pelosi; attitudes toward the situation in Iraq, including the impact of the addition of more than 20,000 newly deployed troops and setting a timetable for withdrawl from Iraq. We also consider the issue of U.S. immigration policy reform, including perceptions of whether changes are needed; attitudes toward a guest worker program; and preferences toward the admission priority of prospective immigrants. Other issues include attitudes toward abortion rights; attitudes toward legalizing same-sex marriage; and early candidate preferences in the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries. „ The extent to which Californians—based on their political party affiliation, region of residence, race/ethnicity, and other demographics—may differ with regard to perceptions, attitudes, and preferences involving state and national issues. Copies of this report may be ordered online (www.ppic.org) or by phone (415-291-4400). For questions about the survey, please contact survey@ppic.org. View our searchable PPIC Statewide Survey database online at http://www.ppic.org/main/survAdvancedSearch.asp. 1 PRESS RELEASE Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: http://www.ppic.org/main/pressreleaseindex.asp SURVEY ON CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT State Has Immigration Jitters And Post-Partisan Depression LITTLE FAITH THAT BUSH, CONGRESS OR GOVERNOR, LEGISLATURE CAN WORK TOGETHER; REPUBLICANS ALMOST AS NEGATIVE AS DEMOCRATS ABOUT BUSH’S JOB ON IMMIGRATION SAN FRANCISCO, California, June 27, 2007 — When it comes to Californians’ public policy priorities, immigration is leaving other issues in the proverbial dust, according to a survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), supported by funding from The James Irvine Foundation. Although California residents support some of the federal proposals for immigration reform, they have little faith that the Republican president and Democratic-led Congress can work together effectively in the coming year. And they feel the same way about the “post-partisan” circumstances in Sacramento. Immigration tops just about everyone’s list of the most important issues facing California today. This holds true across regions, political parties, racial and ethnic groups, and gender. One-quarter (25%) of all residents name immigration/illegal immigration as the state’s most pressing issue. The economy (11%) and health care (8%) lag behind, a distant second and third. Results are almost identical for likely voters (27% immigration, 11% health care, 9% economy). Although Republicans (39%) are far more likely than Democrats (15%) and much more likely than independents (25%) to name immigration as the state’s most important issue, it still holds first place across parties. It is also the most important issue among Latinos (23%), whites (28%), men (26%), and women (24%). “Considering how much more leeway the state has to address the state’s pressing health care, education, and budget problems, this pervasive fixation on immigration is troubling,” says PPIC president and statewide survey director Mark Baldassare. “State leaders cannot make immigration policy, but they will continue to feel the fallout of voter discontent over its effects.” And, as he notes, Californians have identified immigration as their most important issue in every PPIC survey since April of 2006. SUPPORT FOR FEDERAL IMMIGRATION REFORM About three-fourths (74%) of all residents say U.S. immigration policy needs major changes, a belief shared by at least two-thirds in all political parties and all demographic and racial and ethnic groups. And they support many of the proposals in the Senate’s current immigration reform bill. Nearly three-fourths (74%) say illegal immigrants who have lived in the United States for more than two years should be given a chance to keep their jobs and apply for legal status. Only about one-fourth (23%) say these immigrants should be deported to their native countries. Support for providing a path to legalization is also very high among the state’s likely voters (65%). However, it is higher among Democrats (79%) and independents (72%) than among Republicans (51%). There are also partisan differences in support for another proposed reform—temporary guest worker programs. Seven in 10 Republicans (71%) support the idea of allowing foreigners to be employed as guest workers in the United States, and then requiring them to return home, compared to 64 percent of 3 Californians and Their Government Democrats and 59 percent of independents. About two-thirds of all adults (63%) and likely voters (67%) favor this kind of guest worker program. However, Californians are more divided over another element in the Senate bill—who should be given priority in being admitted to the country. About half of residents (49%) think priority should be given to immigrants with job skills and education, while 35 percent choose family ties in the United States as the most important criterion (9% say it depends and 7% don’t know). Among likely voters, preference for skills and education reaches a majority (56%), while fewer (30%) favor family status. HONEYMOON OVER FOR NEW CONGRESS, PELOSI Despite this support for federal immigration reform, residents have little faith that Republican President George W. Bush and the Democratic-led Congress will work together to accomplish a lot this year: 68 percent say they will not. Only 28 percent believe they will—a 10-point drop from the 38 percent who believed this in January. In general, the new Congress’s grace period is definitely over. Only one-third (33%) of Californians give Congress positive ratings, a 9-point drop since the new Democratic majority took over in January (42%). The news is similar for Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, whose approval ratings have fallen 13 points among her fellow Californians since March (52% to 39%). On the whole, only about one-third (31%) of Californians say things in the nation are going in the right direction, while nearly two-thirds (63%) say they are going in the wrong direction. Likely voters are even more pessimistic (26% right direction, 68% wrong direction). Majorities across political parties also believe things are going in the wrong direction (Democrats 74%, independents 66%, Republicans 54%), although Republicans (40%) are twice as likely as Democrats (20%) to say things are going in the right direction. BUSH: WAR TORN AND IMMIGRATION BASHED While Congressional ratings are slumping, approval for President Bush may be nearing rock bottom. The president’s ratings remain at the historic low mark they reached in March: 68 percent disapprove of the job he is doing and only 28 percent approve. And likely voters feel about the same (69% disapprove, 29% approve). Moreover, the partisan differences in his ratings are not as wide as might be expected. While a majority of Republicans (56%) approve of the president’s job performance, the share who disapprove—40 percent—is at the highest point ever. Among Democrats and independents, disapproval is very high (88% and 76%, respectively). The president’s low approval ratings reflect his ratings on the Iraq conflict. Disapproval is overwhelming among all Californians (75% disapprove, 21% approve), Democrats (91% disapprove, 7% approve) and independents (80% disapprove, 19% approve). However, Republicans are closely split (47% disapprove, 49% approve). The attitude most residents have about progress in Iraq may explain a lot about the president’s low approval on the issue: Over half (53%) say things are going not at all well, 26 percent say they are not going too well, 15 percent say they are going somewhat well, and only 3 percent say they are going very well. These views precisely mirror those of likely voters. Moreover, most Californians today (71%) say it was not worth going to war in Iraq in the first place. This is a 10-point jump since PPIC first asked this question in August 2004. Although a majority of Republicans (57%) continue to say the effort was worthwhile, this is much smaller than the majority of Democrats (88%) and independents (71%) who disagree. “The public’s loss of faith has settled pretty deeply on Iraq and will almost certainly make leading and going forward on the issue very difficult,” says Baldassare. Case in point: As the administration continues to increase troop numbers in Iraq, most Californians say the action is either making the situation worse (40%) or making no difference (37%). Second case in point: Nearly seven in 10 (69%) residents think the 4 PPIC Statewide Survey Press Release United States should set a timetable to withdraw from Iraq sometime in 2008, something the Bush administration strongly opposes. As bad as Iraq has been for the president’s ratings, immigration may be hurting him as much—or even more among Republicans. Sixty-two percent of Republicans disapprove of how the president is handing the issue of immigration; only 29 percent approve. These numbers are not so far from ratings by Democrats (72% disapprove, 20% approve) and are very close to independents’ ratings (65% disapprove, 26% approve). Perceptions are also similar among all likely voters (69% disapprove, 22% approve). POST-PARTISAN DEPRESSION AND HEALTH CARE BLUES? The growing misgivings Californians have about partisanship at the national level reflect their misgivings about state government. Residents are much less likely today than they were in January to believe that state leaders will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the coming year. Confidence that Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and the state legislature will be able to work together has dropped 13 points from a solid majority (62%) in January, to just about half (49%) today. This has not, however, affected approval ratings for the governor (57% all adults and 65% likely voters approve), or the legislature (39% all adults and 35% likely voters approve). These numbers have remained about the same as they were in January. So why the lack of faith? “A number of recent events could be signaling trouble and affecting the public’s confidence in state leadership,” says Baldassare. “For example, at the beginning of the year, there was big fanfare about health care from Sacramento, but people have seen little progress.” And Californians do think health care is in crisis. Three-quarters (75%) of all residents and likely voters say the number of people without health insurance is a big problem in the state today, a view held by seven in 10 residents in every regional and demographic group. Little wonder that seven in 10 (72%) Californians also think the state’s health care system is in need of major changes. What kind of changes? Residents (72%) and likely voters (65%) strongly support Governor Schwarzenegger’s plan to require residents to have health insurance, and have employers, health care providers, and individuals share the costs. In fact, majorities across the political spectrum support the proposal (Democrats 81%, independents 69%, Republicans 52%). Some of the push for change may reflect Californians’ personal fears about being able to afford health care if a member of their family gets sick: A majority (56%) are very concerned, 15 percent are somewhat concerned, and only 28 percent say they are not too concerned or not at all concerned. Given the current health care debate, and the competing plans being circulated by the governor and other legislative leaders, it is important to note that among residents who currently have health insurance, twothirds are either very worried (40%) or somewhat worried (27%) about having to pay more for their health care or insurance. Fewer are very worried (19%) or somewhat worried (17%) about losing their coverage. On this question, most are either not at all worried (40%) or not too worried (23%). However, there are major differences across income levels, with households earning less than $40,000 per year far more likely to be very worried about losing their insurance than households earning over $80,000 annually (30% to 8%, respectively). WHO’S MINDING THE STORE? PPIC’s May survey found very low levels of knowledge among likely voters about policy issues. This month’s survey finds that incredibly few likely voters know who some of the state’s top elected officials and most powerful decisionmakers are. Only 11 percent can name Fabian Núñez as the speaker of the state assembly, and about half that number (6%) can name Don Perata as the president pro tem of the state senate. In contrast, Governor Schwarzenegger enjoys just about universal recognition among likely voters (97%). A mere 3 percent of likely voters can correctly name all three. June 2007 5 Californians and Their Government MORE KEY FINDINGS ƒ National Health Insurance — Page 13 Two-thirds (66%) of residents think the U.S. government should provide a national health insurance program even if it means higher taxes. Even more (73%) support such a program for children under the age of 18. ƒ Abortion Rights — Page 22 Most Californians (61%) say the ability to get an abortion should either stay the same or be easier; one-third (33%) believe it should be more difficult—a 7-point jump since September 2006. ƒ Same-Sex Marriage Splits Residents — Page 22 Californians remain deeply divided on the issue of allowing same-sex couples to be legally married. Almost half (49%) are opposed, while 45 percent are in favor, and 6 percent don’t know. Attitudes on this question have barely budged in the three times PPIC has asked it since February 2004. ƒ Clinton, Guiliani Early Favorites in ’08 Primary — Pages 23 and 24 Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama (35% to 20%) among likely Democratic primary voters; Rudy Guiliani leads John McCain (29% to 15%) among likely Republican primary voters. ƒ Democrats Happier With Choice Of Candidates — Pages 23 and 24 Likely Democratic primary voters are much more satisfied with their choice of candidates than likely Republican primary voters are with theirs (74% to 57% respectively). Members of both groups are highly engaged even at this early stage, with 75 percent of Democrats and 72 percent of Republicans following news about the candidates either fairly or very closely. ABOUT THE SURVEY This edition of the PPIC Statewide Survey is the 24th in the institute’s Californians and Their Government series and is supported by funding from The James Irvine Foundation. This survey is intended to raise public awareness, inform decisionmakers, and stimulate public discussions about Californians’ attitudes toward the social, economic, and political trends that influence public policy preferences. Findings are based on a telephone survey of 2,003 California adult residents interviewed between June 12 and June 19, 2007. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish. The sampling error for the total sample is +/2%. The sampling error for subgroups is larger: For the 1,451 registered voters it is +/-2.5%, and for the 983 likely voters it is +/- 3%. For more information on methodology, including the sampling error for additional subgroups, see page 27. Mark Baldassare is president and CEO of PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has directed since 1998. PPIC is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to improving public policy through objective, nonpartisan research on the economic, social, and political issues that affect Californians. The institute was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. This report will appear on PPIC’s website (www.ppic.org) after 10 p.m. on June 27. ### 6 PPIC Statewide Survey STATE ISSUES KEY FINDINGS „ A strong majority of Californians approve of the governor’s job performance. The state legislature’s approval ratings this year, though still well below a majority, are significantly higher than last year. (page 10) „ Immigration (25%) continues to top the list of Californians’ most important issues facing the state today. Fewer mention jobs and the economy (11%), health care and health costs (8%), crime or gangs (7%), and education and schools (7%). (page 8) „ Californians’ outlook for the state is mixed (44% right direction, 46% wrong direction), while 63 percent think things in the country are headed in the wrong direction. (page 9) „ Over nine in 10 Californians can name Arnold Schwarzenegger as the governor of the state, but few can name Fabian Núñez as the speaker of the state assembly (8%), or Don Perata as the president pro tem of the state senate (3%). (page 11) „ About three in four residents see the number of people without health insurance as a big problem in California today and believe that California’s health care system is in need of major changes. (page 12) „ Most Californians want the U.S. government to provide a national health insurance program for all Americans (66%) and believe the federal government should provide a national health insurance program for children under 18 (73%), even if these programs mean higher taxes. (page 13) „ Most Californians are concerned about being able to afford health care when a family member gets sick and worry about paying more for their health care and health insurance. Fewer worry about losing their health insurance or express dissatisfaction with their health insurance plan. (page 14) Approval Ratings of Elected Officials Percent all adults 100 Governor Legislature 80 64 59 60 60 58 57 40 40 36 40 36 20 40 37 26 40 39 29 26 0 2007 2007 2006 2006 2004 2004 2005 2005 June May Jan Jan M ay Jan May Jan Most Important Issue Immigration, illegal immigration Jobs, economy Education, schools 40 Percent all adults 30 20 10 0 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Sept 2005 April 2006 June 2007 Percent all adults Health Care Plan Requiring All Californians to Have Health Insurance 100 80 72 81 Favor Oppose 69 60 40 22 20 52 42 13 25 0 All adults Dem Rep Ind 7 Californians and Their Government MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE One in four Californians name immigration as the most important issue facing the state today. Fewer mention jobs and the economy (11%), health care and health costs (8%), crime, gangs, and drugs (7%), or education and schools (7%). Immigration is also the top concern among likely voters. Since our April 2006 survey, Californians have continued to identify immigration as the state’s most important issue. Today, immigration is the top concern across political groups; however, Republicans (39%) are much more likely than independents (25%) and Democrats (15%) to name immigration as their number one issue. Many Democrats mention jobs and the economy (13%) and health care (11%) as the most important issue. Immigration is also the top concern across regions. Residents in the Other Southern California region (35%) are the most likely to name immigration, followed by Los Angeles (27%) and Central Valley (22%) residents. San Francisco Bay Area residents are the least likely to name immigration (15%) and the most likely to name education and schools (13%) as the top state issue today. Immigration is the most important issue across all demographic groups as well. Whites (28%) and Latinos (23%) both name immigration ahead of other concerns. Among Latinos, jobs and the economy (17%), and crime, gangs, and drugs (15%) are also frequently mentioned as top concerns. The issue of crime, gangs, and drugs is much more likely to be mentioned by Latinos (15%) than whites (2%). For both foreign-born and native-born residents, immigration is the top concern (25% each). Immigration is the top issue mentioned among men and women, and across age, education, and income groups. Among the California residents who name immigration as their top concern, 83 percent think that major changes are needed in U.S. immigration policy. “Thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today?” Top five issues mentioned Immigration, illegal immigration Jobs, economy Health care, health costs Crime, gangs, and drugs Education, schools All Adults 25% 11% 8% 7% 7% Democrat 15 13 11 5 9 Party Republican 39 8 6 3 6 Independent 25 9 10 4 8 Central Valley 22 11 10 7 5 San Francisco Bay Area 15 13 9 6 13 Region Los Angeles 27 11 7 10 7 Other Southern California 35 10 6 5 4 Race/Ethnicity Latinos Whites 23 17 5 15 5 28 7 9 2 8 Likely Voters 27 9 11 3 9 8 PPIC Statewide Survey State Issues OVERALL MOOD Californians are divided when asked about the overall outlook for the state, with 44 percent saying it is going in the right direction and 46 percent saying it is going in the wrong direction. The overall mood was more upbeat in January (55% right direction, 37% wrong direction), but is largely unchanged since March. Half of San Francisco Bay Area residents (51%) say things are headed in the right direction, compared to 45 percent of Central Valley residents and even fewer residents in the Other Southern California region (43%) and Los Angeles (40%). Findings are similar across political parties, while men (47%) and whites (47%) are slightly more likely than women (42%) and Latinos (43%) to say things are headed in the right direction. Optimism about the state’s direction increases with education, income, and homeownership. When asked about the state’s economy for the coming year residents are somewhat more pessimistic than optimistic. Forty-nine percent of residents think that during the next 12 months we will have bad times financially, while 40 percent say they expect good economic times. Again, the mood was more upbeat in January (50% good times, 39% bad times), but is largely unchanged since March. Residents are more pessimistic in the Central Valley (55%), followed by residents in Los Angeles (50%), the Other Southern California region (49%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (42%). Latinos (55%) and women (53%) are somewhat more likely than whites (45%) and men (45%) to think that over the next 12 months California will have bad economic times. “Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Right direction 44% 45% 42% 44% 44% Wrong direction 46 46 49 45 47 Don’t know 10 9 9 11 9 Californians are much more pessimistic about the direction of their country than of their state. Sixty-three percent of residents say things in the United States are headed in the wrong direction. These results are similar to January (60% wrong direction). Majorities across political parties are pessimistic. Strong majorities across all regional and demographic groups are also pessimistic. However, Californians are less pessimistic about the direction of the country than are adults nationwide, according to a recent Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll (24% right direction, 69% wrong direction). Californians’ perceptions of the U.S. economy during the next 12 months mirror their views of the state’s economy. About half (53%) of all adults now think bad economic times are to come; only 39 percent expect good economic times. Californians were more optimistic about the U.S. economy in January (47% good times, 46% bad times). Across all regions and demographic groups, residents are more likely to say the country will have bad times than good times. Republicans (55%) are much more likely than independents (37%) and Democrats (29%) to believe that the country will have good economic times. “Do you think things in the United States are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Right direction 31% 20% 40% 28% 26% Wrong direction 63 74 54 66 68 Don’t know 6 6 6 6 6 June 2007 9 Californians and Their Government APPROVAL RATINGS OF ELECTED STATE OFFICIALS Today, 57 percent of adults and 65 percent of likely voters approve of the way Governor Schwarzenegger is handling his job. The governor’s approval ratings among all adults have increased slightly from May (53%) and are now similar to January (58%). His approval ratings among all adults today are much higher than in May 2006 (36%) and May 2005 (40%), but are lower than they were in May 2004 (64%). While the governor receives majority approval across political parties, his approval ratings are higher among Republicans (78%) than independents (60%) or Democrats (54%). Across regions, his approval ratings are higher in the Central Valley (62%), San Francisco Bay Area (59%), and the Other Southern California region (59%) than in Los Angeles (49%). Governor Schwarzenegger’s approval ratings are significantly higher among whites than Latinos (72% to 34%) and slightly higher among men than women (60% to 54%). His approval ratings increase with age, education, income, and home ownership. Approve Disapprove Don’t know “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 57% 54% 78% 60% 31 35 15 27 12 11 7 13 Likely Voters 65% 24 11 Today, 39 percent of all adults and 35 percent of likely voters approve of the way the California Legislature is handling its job. Approval of the legislature among all adults continues to hover around 40 percent this year (40% January, 41% March, 38% April, 37% May, 39% today). The legislature’s approval ratings today are 13 points higher than in May 2006 and May 2005 (26% each) and are similar to May 2004 (40%). Democrats (47%) are much more likely than independents (35%) and Republicans (30%) to approve of the legislature. Across regions, residents of the Central Valley (43%) are more likely than those in the San Francisco Bay Area (39%), Los Angeles (38%), and the Other Southern California region (36%) to approve. Latinos (44%) are more likely than whites (37%) to approve, while approval is similar among men and women and across education and income levels. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Approve 39% 47% 30% 35% 35% Disapprove 40 34 52 42 47 Don’t know 21 19 18 23 18 At the beginning of this year, six in 10 adults (62%) and likely voters (60%) were optimistic that the governor and legislature would be able to work together during the new legislative session. Today, about half of all adults and likely voters (49% each) say the governor and legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year. Expectations are similar among Republicans (52%), Democrats (49%), and independents (47%). Hopes for this year have declined across all political groups since January. 10 PPIC Statewide Survey State Issues RECOGNITION OF ELECTED STATE OFFICIALS When asked to give the name of their governor, almost all California adults (93%) and likely voters (97%) can name Arnold Schwarzenegger. Recognition is high across political parties, with Republicans (98%) slightly more likely to name Governor Schwarzenegger than Democrats (94%) and independents (93%). Across all regional and demographic groups nearly nine in 10 or more are able to name Arnold Schwarzenegger as governor. Californians are as likely as adults nationwide to correctly identify Arnold Schwarzenegger as the governor of California, according to a Pew Research Center survey earlier this year (93% answered correctly). In September 1999, less than one year after Gray Davis’s election and the start of his first term, 64 percent of California adults and 76 percent of likely voters were able to correctly identify their governor. Knowledge of the individuals who hold two of the major state legislative offices today is much lower. Eight percent of California adults and 11 percent of likely voters are able to correctly name Fabian Núñez as speaker of the California State Assembly. Núñez has held that legislative position since February 2004. Núñez has higher recognition as assembly speaker in Los Angeles (11%), where his legislative district is located, while recognition among Latinos is at 7 percent. Even fewer Californians can name Don Perata as president pro tem of the California State Senate; 3 percent of residents and 6 percent of likely voters correctly identified Perata. Perata has held that legislative position since December 2004. His recognition increases slightly among San Francisco Bay Area (8%) residents, where his legislative district is located, but nearly nine in 10 or more Californians in all regions and demographic groups are unsure of who holds this state legislative office. The ability to identify the president pro tem is highest among residents over 55 years of age (5%), those with a college education (6%), and residents with household incomes over $80,000 (7%). In September 1999, 4 percent of residents correctly identified Antonio Villaraigosa as speaker of the state assembly and only 1 percent could name John Burton as president pro tem of the state senate; this was when they had each been in those legislative positions since February 1998. Today, only 2 percent of California adults and 3 percent of likely voters can correctly name the governor, speaker of the state assembly, and president pro tem of the state senate. “Some people can’t remember the names of state officeholders, while some people can remember them. Can you give me the name of the…” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Arnold Schwarzenegger 93% 94% 98% 93% 97% California Governor Other 1 - -1 - Don’t know 6 626 3 Speaker of the California State Assembly Fabian Núñez Other Don’t know 8 8 9 10 3 334 89 89 88 86 11 3 86 President Pro Tem of the California State Senate Don Perata Other Don’t know 3 532 3 352 94 92 92 96 6 3 91 June 2007 11 Californians and Their Government CALIFORNIA’S HEALTH CARE SYSTEM Governor Schwarzenegger and the Democratic-controlled legislature have made health care reform a priority this year, leading to several proposals and much debate on the issue of expanding health care coverage. Do residents perceive the number of people without health insurance in California today as a problem? Seventy-five percent of Californians think the number of uninsured Californians is a big problem, 17 percent say it is somewhat of a problem, and only 6 percent say it is not a problem. Across political parties, strong majorities say that the number of uninsured Californians is a big problem, with Democrats (85%) and independents (78%) more likely than Republicans (63%) to say it is a big problem. Over seven in 10 residents across all regional and demographic groups say the number of uninsured is a big problem. Women (79%) see it as a bigger problem than men do (71%). Latinos (76%) and whites (74%) are similarly likely to say it is a big problem today. “Do you think the number of people without health insurance is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem in California today?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Big problem 75% 85% 63% 78% 75% Somewhat of a problem 17 10 27 17 18 Not a problem 64956 Don’t know 211 - 1 The governor and legislature are working on health care reform issues at a time when the public wants action on this topic. When asked about how much change is needed to the California health care system, about seven in 10 residents say major changes are needed, only 17 percent say minor changes, and 8 percent say it is fine the way it is. Findings for likely voters are similar. Across parties, Democrats (81%) and independents (70%) are more likely to say major changes are needed, though 59 percent of Republicans agree. Over two in three across regions say major changes are needed. Women (75%) and Latinos (76%) are more likely than men (68%) and whites (68%) to say major changes are needed. “Do you think California’s health care system is in need of major changes or minor changes or that it is basically fine the way it is?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Major changes 72% 81% 59% 70% 71% Minor changes 17 12 24 19 17 Fine the way it is 8 4 12 8 7 Don't know 33535 12 PPIC Statewide Survey State Issues CALIFORNIA AND U.S. HEALTH COVERAGE PROPOSALS One health care plan proposed by the governor would require all Californians to have health insurance, with costs shared by employers, health care providers, and individuals. A majority of residents (72%) and likely voters (65%) favor this proposal. Findings for adults are similar to March (71% favor, 24% oppose). “Would you favor or oppose a plan requiring all Californians to have health insurance, with costs shared by employers, health care providers, and individuals?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Favor 72% 81% 52% 69% 65% Oppose 22 13 42 25 29 Don’t know 66666 Even as state policymakers discuss proposals to extend health care coverage for California residents, a majority of California adults (66%) and likely voters (58%) think that the U.S. government should provide a national health insurance program for all citizens, even if it requires increasing taxes. Our results mirror the views of all Americans in a national poll by CNN/Opinion Research Corporation in May (64% yes, 35% no). Attitudes in California vary greatly across political parties, receiving the greatest support among Democrats (78%) and independents (64%), with significantly less support among Republicans (35%). Majorities in all regions and demographic groups favor the proposal. However, support is much higher among Latinos (82%) than whites (56%) and decreases with age, education, and income. “Do you think the U.S. government should provide a national health insurance program for all Americans, even if this would require higher taxes?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Yes 66% 78% 35% 64% 58% No 30 18 61 33 39 Don’t know 4 4 4 3 3 Californians are even more inclined to support a federal program that would provide health insurance for all children under the age of 18. Seventy-three percent of all adults and 63 percent of likely voters think the U.S. government should provide this type of program, even if it would require paying higher taxes. The California results are again similar to the CNN national poll (73% yes, 25% no). Democrats (85%) continue to be more supportive than Republicans (43%) of national health insurance programs. More than six in 10 in all regions and demographic groups support a national health insurance program for all children under the age of 18. Among California residents with health insurance, 63 percent favor a national health insurance program to cover all Americans, 70 percent favor national coverage for all children under 18, and 70 percent favor the plan to require all Californians to have health insurance, with costs shared by several parties. “Do you think the U.S. government should provide a national health insurance program for all children under the age of 18, even if this would require higher taxes?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Yes 73% 85% 43% 70% 63% No 23 12 52 27 33 Don’t know 4 3 5 3 4 June 2007 13 Californians and Their Government PERSONAL HEALTH CARE COSTS AND INSURANCE COVERAGE Are health care issues a personal concern for Californians? An overwhelming majority of all adults (71%) are very (56%) or somewhat (15%) concerned personally about being able to afford necessary health care when a family member gets sick. Likely voters are less likely to be very (44%) or somewhat (16%) concerned. Today, the level of concern with health care affordability among California adults is comparable to September 2004 (57% very, 20% somewhat, 10% not very, 13% not at all concerned). There are sharp differences across income groups. Nearly three in four adults (74%) with a total annual household income of less than $40,000 are very concerned about being able to afford necessary health care, while less than four in 10 adults (36%) with household earnings over $80,000 share the same level of concern. Majorities in all demographic groups are at least somewhat concerned. Democrats (73%) and independents (72%) are far more likely than Republicans (54%) to be at least somewhat concerned. More than six in 10 residents in all regions voice at least some concern, with concern highest in Los Angeles (77%) and the Central Valley (75%). In the context of current policy discussions, it is important to note that two in three residents also say they are very (40%) or somewhat (27%) worried about having to pay more for their health care or health insurance coverage. “How concerned are you personally about being able to afford necessary health care when a family member gets sick?” Very concerned All Adults 56% Under $40,000 74% Income $40,000 to $79,000 51% $80,000 or more 36% Somewhat concerned 15 13 18 18 Not too concerned 13 7 12 23 Not at all concerned 15 6 18 23 Don’t know 1- 1 - Likely Voters 44% 16 19 20 1 When it comes to losing health coverage, how worried are currently insured residents? Thirty-six percent of all insured adults and 27 percent of insured likely voters say they are at least somewhat worried. Once again, there are strong differences across income groups, with households earning less than $40,000 (30%) far more likely than households earning $80,000 or more (8%) to be very worried about losing their insurance coverage. Across parties, Democrats (38%) are far more likely than Republicans (20%) to be at least somewhat worried about losing their health insurance. As policy discussions about health coverage continue, it is also important to note that almost nine in 10 insured Californians are very satisfied (49%) or somewhat satisfied (38%) with their current health coverage. Insured only Very worried Somewhat worried Not too worried Not at all worried Don’t know “How worried are you about losing your health insurance coverage?” All Adults 19% Under $40,000 30% Income $40,000 to $79,000 20% $80,000 or more 8% 17 18 18 17 23 19 20 30 40 32 42 45 11 - - Likely Voters 12% 15 27 46 - 14 PPIC Statewide Survey NATIONAL ISSUES KEY FINDINGS „ Only three in 10 California adults and likely voters approve of President Bush’s overall job performance, with his ratings on Iraq even lower; two in three disapprove of his performance on immigration. (page 16) „ Approval ratings of the U.S. Congress have declined 9 points since January. Speaker Pelosi’s approval ratings have declined since March and she now receives mixed reviews (39% approve, 31% disapprove, 30% unsure). (page 17) „ Pessimism about Iraq continues to rise. Majorities of adults and likely voters (53% each) say things are going not at all well in Iraq, and seven in 10 adults think it was not worth going to war. (page 18) „ Residents are not favorable toward the recent troop surge in Iraq. Four in 10 say the additional troops are making the situation in Iraq worse. More than two in three residents favor imposing a timeline for U.S. troop withdrawal. (page 19) „ Three in four adults and likely voters say major changes are needed to U.S. immigration policy. Most want illegal immigrants to be able to keep their jobs and apply for legal status, support a guest worker program, and prefer priority to be given to immigrants with education, job skills and work experience. (pages 20, 21) „ Californians remain strongly pro-choice on abortion but are divided on legalizing samesex marriage, with opinions varying sharply along party lines. (page 22) „ Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani are early favorites in the February 2008 presidential primary. (pages 23, 24) Approval Ratings of Elected Officials 100 President Bush U.S. Congress 80 Percent all adults 60 42 40 36 20 35 33 34 37 42 33 29 28 0 Oct March Sept Jan June 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 Worth Going to War in Iraq? 100 Yes No Percent all adults 80 64 60 60 69 71 62 65 40 36 20 34 31 31 27 25 0 Aug Aug Jan Sept Jan June 2004 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 Legalizing Same-Sex Marriage 100 80 Favor Oppose Percent all adults 60 55 50 48 48 49 40 38 44 44 44 45 20 0 Jan Feb Aug Sept Jun 2000 2004 2005 2006 2007 15 Californians and Their Government APPROVAL RATINGS OF ELECTED FEDERAL OFFICIALS President Bush’s approval ratings remain at the historic low they reached in March. Today, only 28 percent of adults approve of the way the president is handling his job. Bush’s job approval ratings have hovered around 30 percent since last fall (33% September 2006, 32% October 2006, 29% January 2007, 28% March 2007). Likely voters are similar in their approval ratings of the president. Californians are slightly less favorable than are Americans nationwide. According to a Gallup Poll earlier this month, 32 percent of Americans approve of the way Bush is handling the presidency and 65 percent disapprove. Sharp partisan differences exist in the president’s approval ratings, with Republicans (56%) far more approving than independents (23%) and Democrats (11%). Majorities in all regions are negative, with disapproval highest in the San Francisco Bay Area (81%), followed by Los Angeles (69%), the Other Southern California region (62%), and the Central Valley (59%). The president’s ratings are low in all demographic groups and are similar among whites (30%) and Latinos (32%). His approval drops as education level rises. Approve Disapprove Don’t know “Changing topics, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling his job as president of the United States?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 28% 11% 56% 23% 68 88 40 76 41 4 1 Likely Voters 29% 69 2 Bush’s approval ratings on Iraq reach a new low this month, with only 21 percent of adults and 25 percent of likely voters approving. This marks a 12-point drop in approval among all adults from January 2006 (33%) and a 34-point drop from his high point on this issue in September 2002 (55%). Californians are more negative about the president’s handling of Iraq than are adults nationwide, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll earlier this month (31% approve, 67% disapprove). California Democrats (7%) and independents (19%) are much less favorable than Republicans (49%), and disapproval is strong across regions and demographic groups. Latinos are much more disapproving than whites (82% to 69%). Californians are also negative about Bush’s handling of immigration, with 28 percent of adults and 22 percent of likely voters approving of his performance on this issue. Adults nationwide are equally negative, according to a May CBS News/New York Times poll (27% approve, 60% disapprove). The large partisan divide in the president’s other approval ratings is not nearly as wide on immigration (20% Democrats, 26% independents, 29% Republicans). Approval on immigration is low in all regions, higher among men than women (31% to 25%), and drops as income and education increase. Latinos are more likely than whites (40% to 25%) to approve of the president’s performance on immigration. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling the issue of…?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Approve 21% 7% 49% 19% 25% Iraq? Disapprove 75 91 47 80 72 Don't know 4 241 3 Approve 28 20 29 26 22 Immigration? Disapprove 63 72 62 65 69 Don't know 9 999 9 16 PPIC Statewide Survey National Issues APPROVAL RATINGS OF ELECTED FEDERAL OFFICIALS (CONTINUED) As Nancy Pelosi approaches her sixth month as speaker of the House of Representatives, her approval ratings among adults reflect a 13-point drop from March (52%). Today, about four in 10 adults (39%) and likely voters (43%) approve of the way she is handling her job. Californians’ approval ratings are similar to Americans’ nationwide, according to a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll earlier this month (36% approve, 39% disapprove). California Democrats (56%) and independents (40%) are more likely than Republicans (22%) to approve of Speaker Pelosi. However, support among Democrats has dropped 14 points since March (70%). Regionally, the speaker receives her highest marks from the San Francisco Bay Area (52%), where her congressional district is located, while it is lower in Los Angeles (40%), the Central Valley (35%), and the Other Southern California region (34%). Speaker Pelosi receives similar approval among men and women, and Latinos and whites. Her approval increases with age, education, and income. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is handling her job?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Approve 39% 56% 22% 40% 43% Disapprove 31 20 60 36 42 Don’t know 30 24 18 24 15 Approval ratings of the U.S. Congress, meanwhile, have declined this year. Today, only one in three Californians (33%) and three in 10 likely voters (30%) approve of the way Congress is performing. This marks a 9-point decrease among all adults since January (42%). Today, Democrats (38%) and independents (30%) are more likely than Republicans (23%) to approve of the Democratic-majority Congress. Compared to January, approval ratings of Congress have dropped by 8 points among Democrats, 13 points among Republicans, and 10 points among independents. Today, approval ratings of Congress are similar across regions. Latinos are more likely than whites (40% to 30%) to approve of Congress, while disapproval of Congress rises with age, education, and income. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Approve 33% 38% 23% 30% 30% Disapprove 54 52 68 56 62 Don’t know 13 10 9 14 8 In January, four in 10 adults (38%) and three in 10 likely voters (30%) thought that President Bush and the U.S. Congress would be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year. Today, 28 percent of adults and 15 percent of likely voters think so. Positive expectations are similar among Republicans (24%), Democrats (19%), and independents (20%). Hopes for bipartisanship for this year have declined across all political groups since January. June 2007 17 Californians and Their Government U.S. SITUATION IN IRAQ With the war in Iraq now more than four years old, and disapproval of Bush’s handling of this issue rising, most Californians continue to say things are not going well at all. As in January, a majority of Californians hold this negative view (53%), with fewer than one in five saying things are going very (3%) or somewhat (15%) well for the U.S. in Iraq. Positive assessments have dropped 17 points since January 2006 (8% very, 27% somewhat). Californians’ views appear to be more negative than Americans’ nationwide, judging from a similar question in a May CBS News/New York Times poll that found 23 percent saying U.S. efforts to bring stability and order to Iraq were going very or somewhat well. While many in California say things are going not at all well for the U.S. in Iraq, division is wide across parties, regions, and racial/ethnic groups. Seventy percent of Democrats and 57 percent of independents say things are going not at all well, while only 27 percent of Republicans hold this view. Regionally, residents of the San Francisco Bay Area (64%) and Los Angeles (56%) are more likely than those in the Central Valley (50%) or the Other Southern California region (46%) to say things are going not at all well. Latinos (59%) are more likely than whites (47%) and women (57%) are more likely than men (50%) to say the same. Negative perceptions about Iraq also increase slightly with education. Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Don’t know “In general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 3% 1% 5% 3% 15 4 32 11 26 23 35 27 53 70 27 57 32 1 2 Likely Voters 3% 16 26 53 2 For the first time in a PPIC Statewide Survey, more than seven in 10 Californians say it was not worth going to war in Iraq. Only 25 percent of Californians now say it was worth going to war – a 9-point drop since January 2006. Large majorities of Californians this year (69% January, 71% today) have said the war was not worth the effort, compared to when we first asked this question in August 2004 (61%). Again, Californians appear to be more negative than adults nationwide: A similar question in a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll found that 61 percent believe the war in Iraq was not worth fighting. Today, large majorities of Democrats (88%) and independents (71%) say it was not worth going to war in Iraq, while a smaller majority of Republicans (57%) say the effort was worthwhile. Majorities in all regions are negative about the invasion; however, residents of the San Francisco Bay Area (82%) and Los Angeles (73%) are more likely than those in the Central Valley (64%) and the Other Southern California region (63%) to hold this pessimistic view. Women (74%) are more likely than men (68%) and Latinos (79%) more likely than whites (63%) to say that going to war was not worth it, and this belief increases with income. Yes, worth it No, not worth it Don’t know “All in all, do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq or not?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 25% 10% 57% 25% 71 88 38 71 42 5 4 Likely Voters 30% 67 3 18 PPIC Statewide Survey National Issues U.S. SITUATION IN IRAQ (CONTINUED) In our January survey, conducted shortly after President Bush announced a troop increase, 26 percent of Californians said they supported the president’s proposal, while 70 percent were opposed. Five months later, only 18 percent say the troop increase has made the situation in Iraq better. Most Californians believe that it has had either no impact (37%) or has made the situation worse (40%). Californians today are more negative about the troop increase than are Americans nationwide, according to a May CBS News/New York Times poll (20% better, 26% worse, 50% no difference). Perceptions of the impact of the troop increase vary by party, with nearly half of Republicans saying the troop increase has made the situation better, half of Democrats saying it has made the situation worse, and nearly half of independents saying the troop increase has had no impact. Across regions, at least seven in 10 residents say the troop increase has been either negative or had no impact, with residents of the San Francisco Bay Area (82%) and Los Angeles (80%) most likely to hold these views. Women (81%) are more likely than men (72%), and Latinos (86%) more likely than whites (69%) to hold these views. “As you may know, the U.S. is sending more than 20,000 additional troops to Iraq. From what you have heard or read, would you say this troop increase is making the situation in Iraq better, making it worse, or is it having no impact on the situation in Iraq so far?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Better 18% 7% 46% 17% 27% Worse 40 50 14 33 30 No impact 37 40 33 46 39 Don’t know 5 3 7 4 4 Nearly seven in 10 Californians (69%) and six in 10 likely voters (60%) think the United States should set a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq sometime in 2008. Californians are more supportive of a timetable than are Americans nationwide, according to a similar question asked earlier this month in a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll (57% should set a timetable, 39% should not). The partisan divide on this issue is deep, with 83 percent of Democrats and 64 percent of independents supporting a timetable, while a majority of Republicans (57%) are against it. More than six in 10 in each region think the United States should set a timetable, with residents of the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles (73% each) being the most supportive. Support for setting a timetable is greater among women than men (76% to 63%), and among Latinos than whites (84% to 59%), and declines with age, education, and income. Of those who say it was not worth going to war in Iraq, 83 percent want a timetable for withdrawing U.S. troops, while 61 percent of those who believe going to war in Iraq was worthwhile are opposed to this proposal. Should Should not Don’t know “Do you think the United States should or should not set a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq sometime in 2008?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 69% 83% 39% 64% 27 13 57 32 44 4 4 Likely Voters 60% 36 4 June 2007 19 Californians and Their Government IMMIGRATION POLICY As President Bush and members of Congress attempt to revive immigration reform efforts, there is consensus that U.S. immigration policy needs attention. Three in four adults (74%) and likely voters (75%) and at least seven in 10 residents across all political parties and regions say the current policy needs major changes. This viewpoint is shared by at least two in three residents in all racial/ethnic and demographic groups. Fewer than one in 10 believes the current policy is fine the way it is. The perception that major changes are needed is somewhat higher among Latinos than whites (78% to 73%), and among women than men (79% to 69%), and increases with age. “Do you think that immigration policy in the United States today is in need of major changes, minor changes, or is it basically fine the way it is? All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind Major changes 74% 75% 71% 70% Minor changes 18 18 20 21 Fine the way it is 6577 Don't know 2222 Likely Voters 75% 17 6 2 In considering the effects that immigrants have on the state, a majority of Californians (60%) continue to say immigrants are a benefit because of their hard work and job skills, while one in three (32%) says they are a burden because they use public services. Most Republicans (57%) say immigrants are a burden while most Democrats (62%) and independents (55%) say they are a benefit. Since we began asking this question in February 2000, a majority of adults have said immigrants are a benefit to California. One controversial aspect of immigration reform is how to handle illegal immigrants who have already been living and working in the United States. Three in four California adults (74%) and two in three likely voters (65%) favor giving illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the U.S. for at least two years a chance to keep their jobs and to apply for eventual legal status. Twenty-three percent of adults and 31 percent of likely voters would prefer that these illegal immigrants be deported back to their native countries. Californians are much more likely than adults nationwide (62%) to favor giving these illegal immigrants an opportunity to stay in the U.S., according to a May CBS News/New York Times poll. In California, Republicans (51%) are far less likely than Democrats (79%) and independents (72%) to favor giving illegal immigrants a pathway to legal status. This preference for providing a pathway to legal status is strong across demographic groups, but is higher among Latinos than whites (93% to 64%), and higher among foreign-born than among U.S.-born residents (90% to 67%). Of those who say major immigration policy changes are needed, 74 percent support giving illegal immigrants a chance to stay in the United States. “If you had to choose, what do you think should happen to most illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the United States for at least two years?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind They should be given a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status 74% 79% 51% 72% They should be deported back to their native country 23 17 44 24 65% 31 Don't know 34 5 4 4 20 PPIC Statewide Survey National Issues IMMIGRATION POLICY (CONTINUED) Another element of the immigration reform debate concerns temporary guest workers. Among Californians, 63 percent of adults and 67 percent of likely voters would favor allowing guest workers to come to the United States for a temporary period of time and then be required to return to their home countries. Californians’ views are similar to those of adults nationwide (66% favor, 30% oppose), according to the May CBS News/New York Times poll. Republicans (71%) are more likely than Democrats (64%) or independents (59%) to favor a guest worker program. This proposal draws less support in Los Angeles (56%) than in the Other Southern California region (63%), the San Francisco Bay Area (65%), or the Central Valley (67%), and less support among Latinos (56%) than whites (68%). Being in favor of a guest worker program increases with education and income, and is higher among foreign-born naturalized citizens (71%) than among U.S.-born citizens (65%) or foreign-born non-citizens (52%). “Would you favor or oppose a program allowing people from other countries to be guest workers in the U.S. for a temporary period of time and then be required to return to their home country?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Favor 63% 64% 71% 59% 67% Oppose 31 29 24 35 28 Don’t know 6 7 5 6 5 Recently, there has been debate about whether current immigration policies should change to give higher preference to applicants who have the education, job skills, and work experience to fill U.S. jobs. Present policy gives priority to those who already have family members in the United States. About half of all adults (49%) would favor giving priority to those with job skills, while 35 percent would favor giving priority based on family status. Californians’ views on this issue are nearly identical to those of adults nationwide (51% job skills, 34% family) according to the May CBS/New York Times poll. While pluralities in all political parties believe priority should be given to those with job skills, Republicans (64%) are much more likely to hold this view than independents (52%) or Democrats (47%). Across regions, residents are more likely to favor priority for job skills over family unification, and this preference is highest among Other Southern California residents (56%). Belief that job skills should outweigh family unification increases with education and income and is higher among men than women (54% to 44%). While 58 percent of whites believe priority should be given to immigrants with job skills, 53 percent of Latinos believe preference should be given to those with family members in the United States. Support for giving priority to those with job skills is higher among U.S.-born citizens (56%) than foreign-born naturalized citizens (41%) or foreign-born non-citizens (31%). Of those who say major immigration policy changes are needed, 48 percent favor giving priority to those with job skills. “When the U.S. government is deciding which immigrants to admit to this country, should priority be given to people who have…” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Education, job skills, and work experience 49% 47% 64% 52% 56% Family members already living in the U.S. 35 38 22 32 30 It depends (volunteered) 97 8 10 7 Don’t know 78 6 6 7 June 2007 21 Californians and Their Government ABORTION AND SAME-SEX MARRIAGE Californians continue to support the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that prevents the enactment of state laws restricting the right of women to choose an abortion. Sixty-five percent of Californians do not want the U.S. Supreme Court to completely overturn Roe v. Wade, compared to 30 percent who would like to see the decision overturned. Still, the proportion who would like to completely overturn Roe v. Wade is somewhat higher today (30%) than in August 2005 (24%) and December 2005 (22%), when decisions were being made about appointments to the Supreme Court. Currently, 61 percent of Californians would like the Supreme Court to leave access to abortion the same as it is now (47%) or make it easier (14%). Residents today are 7 points more likely than in September 2006 to say it should be harder to get an abortion (33% today, 26% September), although the proportion holding this view today is similar to October 2005 (35%) when this question was first asked. At least six in 10 residents have said they prefer the status quo or easing abortion access in all four surveys in which this question was asked. While Republicans (41%) are much more likely than independents (24%) or Democrats (22%) to want to make it harder to get an abortion, majorities across parties (74% Democrats, 71% independents, 53% Republicans) would like to keep the status quo or make it easier. Latinos (50%) are twice as likely as whites (25%) to favor restricting access to abortion. “Would you like to see the Supreme Court make it harder to get an abortion than it is now, make it easier to get an abortion than it is now, or leave the ability to get an abortion the same as it is now?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Harder 33% 22% 41% 24% 27% Easier 14 18 6 16 15 Same 47 56 47 55 53 Don’t know 6 4 6 5 5 On the issue of same-sex marriage, Californians remain divided. Forty-five percent of adults and 46 percent of likely voters are in favor of allowing gay and lesbian couples to be legally married, while about half in each group (49% adults, 48% likely voters) are opposed. Findings have been nearly identical all three times this question has been asked since February 2004. The number of those favoring the legalization of same-sex marriage was lower when we first asked this question in January 2000 (38%). Across political parties today, majorities of Democrats (59%) and independents (52%) are in favor of allowing gay and lesbian couples to be legally married, while a majority of Republicans are opposed (68%). More than half of San Francisco Bay Area residents (58%) favor allowing same-sex marriage, while majorities in other regions are opposed. Favor for legalizing same-sex marriage declines with age and increases with education and income. Opposition is higher among Latinos than whites (54% to 45%). Favor Oppose Don’t know “Do you favor or oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to be legally married?” All Adults 45% Central Valley 38% Region San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles 58% 41% Other Southern California 40% Likely Voters 46% 49 56 36 52 54 48 66 6 7 66 22 PPIC Statewide Survey National Issues 2008 PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY With the early California presidential primary playing a prominent role in national politics, who are California’s likely voters endorsing as their party’s candidate for the 2008 presidential election? Among Democratic primary likely voters, who include Democrats as well as independents who say they’ll vote the Democratic primary ballot, Senator Hillary Clinton (35%) leads, followed by Senator Barack Obama (20%), former Vice President Al Gore (19%), former Senator John Edwards (9%), and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson (3%). Six percent would vote for other candidates, and 8 percent are undecided. Although Al Gore has not given any indication that he will enter the race, he has not ruled it out either. We thus asked a follow-up question of Gore supporters. If Gore’s supporters’ second choices are considered, Clinton (41%), Obama (25%), and Edwards (12%) would all gain some ground, but the margins of difference between these candidates would be similar. Californians are nearly identical to adults nationwide—with or without Gore in the race—according to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted in mid-June. When we presented California’s Democratic primary likely voters with a shorter list in March (including Clinton, Obama, Edwards, and Richardson), 35 percent supported Clinton, 24 percent supported Obama, 14 percent Edwards, and 6 percent Richardson. Clinton is the leading candidate today among liberals (33%) and others (37%), and men (31%) and women (37%). Liberals are less likely than others to support Clinton and more likely than others to support Obama and Edwards. Men are less likely than women to support Clinton. Democratic primary likely voters only “If the Democratic primary for president were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?” Likely Voters Ideology Liberal Other Male Gender Female Hillary Clinton 35% 33% 37% 31% 37% Barack Obama 20 22 18 19 20 Al Gore 19 19 18 22 17 John Edwards 9 11 7 7 10 Bill Richardson 33452 Other candidates* 6 6 5 8 5 Don't know 8 6 11 8 9 *For a complete list of candidates, see question 40a on p.33. Seventy-four percent of Democratic primary likely voters say they are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the presidential primary, while 21 percent are not satisfied. At this early stage, three in four Democratic primary likely voters say they are following news about candidates for the 2008 presidential election either very (21%) or fairly closely (54%) while one in four is following news not too or not at all closely. June 2007 23 Californians and Their Government 2008 PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (CONTINUED) On the Republican side, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (29%) enjoys a lead over other candidates among Republican primary likely voters. Senator John McCain (15%), former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (12%), and former Senator Fred Thompson (11%) are clustered together in a second tier, while former speaker of the House of Representatives, Newt Gingrich, has support from 6 percent. Fifteen percent would vote for other candidates, and 12 percent are undecided. At this point, neither Thompson nor Gingrich have declared their candidacies, although Fred Thompson has inched closer to running by recently forming a “testing the waters” committee. We thus asked a follow-up question of Gingrich supporters. If Gingrich’s supporters’ second choices are considered, the standings remain about the same (31% Giuliani, 16% McCain, 13% Romney, 13% Thompson). At the national level, Giuliani is also the front runner—with or without Gingrich in the race—according to the mid-June USA Today/Gallup poll, with Thompson and McCain nearly tied for second place. When California’s Republican primary likely voters were presented with a shorter list this past March that included Giuliani, McCain, Gingrich, and Romney, 33 percent supported Giuliani, 19 percent supported McCain, 14 percent Gingrich, and 7 percent Romney. Giuliani is the leading candidate today among conservatives (26%) and others (35%), and both men (27%) and women (31%). Conservatives are less likely than others to support Giuliani and more likely than others to support Romney and Thompson. After Giuliani, men are more likely than women to support McCain and Thompson, while women are more likely than men to support Romney. Republican primary likely voters only “If the Republican primary for president were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?” Likely Voters Ideology Conservative Other Male Gender Female Rudy Giuliani 29% 26% 35% 27% 31% John McCain 15 16 14 17 12 Mitt Romney 12 15 7 11 15 Fred Thompson 11 14 6 13 8 Newt Gingrich 67 5 5 8 Other candidates* 15 12 18 16 12 Don't know 12 10 15 11 14 *For a complete list of candidates, see question 40b on p.34. Fewer Republican primary likely voters (57%) than Democratic primary likely voters (74%) say they are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the presidential primary. Republican primary likely voters are as likely as Democratic primary likely voters to be following news about candidates for the 2008 presidential election, with three in four Republican primary likely voters saying they are following news very (22%) or fairly closely (50%), while one in four is following news not too or not at all closely. 24 PPIC Statewide Survey REGIONAL MAP 25 METHODOLOGY The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance in research and writing from Jennifer Paluch, project manager for this survey, survey research associates Dean Bonner and Sonja Petek, and survey intern Stephanie Stone. This survey was conducted with funding from The James Irvine Foundation and benefited from discussions with policy experts; however, the survey methods, questions, and content of this report were solely determined by Mark Baldassare. The findings in this report are based on a telephone survey of 2,003 California adult residents interviewed from June 12 to 19, 2007. Interviewing took place on weekday nights and weekend days, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All telephone exchanges in California were eligible. Telephone numbers in the survey sample were called up to six times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Each interview took an average of 18 minutes to complete and was conducted in English or Spanish. Accent on Languages translated the survey into Spanish with assistance from Renatta DeFever and Stephanie Stone. Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas, Inc. conducted the telephone interviewing. We used recent U.S. Census and state data to compare the demographic characteristics of the survey sample with characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to census and state figures. The survey data in this report were statistically weighted to account for any demographic differences. The sampling error for the total sample of 2,003 adults is +/- 2 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 2 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger: For the 1,451 registered voters, it is +/- 2.5 percent; for the 983 likely voters, it is +/- 3 percent; for the 431 Democratic presidential primary likely voters and the 334 Republican presidential primary likely voters, it is 5 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. We present results for four geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, and “Other Southern California” includes Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. Residents from other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters. Sample sizes for these less populated areas are not large enough to report separately. We present specific results for Latinos because they account for about 30 percent of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest growing voter groups. Sample sizes for African Americans and Asian Americans are not large enough for separate analysis. We compare the opinions of registered Democrats, Republicans, and independents (those who are registered as “decline to state”). We also include the responses of “likely voters”— those who are most likely to vote in the state’s elections based on past voting, current interest, and voting intentions. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey results to those in national surveys by ABC News/Washington Post, CBS News/New York Times, CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, Gallup, Kaiser Family Foundation, Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg, Pew Research Center, and USA Today/Gallup. 27 QUESTIONNAIRE AND RESULTS CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT June 12-19, 2007 2,003 California Adult Residents: English, Spanish MARGIN OF ERROR +/-2% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE 1. First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today? [code, don’t read] 25% immigration, illegal immigration 11 jobs, economy 8 health care, health costs 7 crime, gangs, drugs 7 education, schools 6 gasoline prices 5 environment, pollution 4 housing costs 3 state budget, deficit, taxes 3 traffic, transportation, infrastructure 14 other 7 don’t know 2. On another topic, some people can’t remember the names of state officeholders, while some people can remember them. Can you give me the name of the California governor? [code, don’t read] 93% Arnold Schwarzenegger 1 other 6 no/don’t know/unable to name 3. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California? 57% approve 31 disapprove 12 don’t know [rotate questions 4 and 5] 4. Can you give me the name of the speaker of the California State Assembly? [code, don’t read] 8% Fabian Núñez 3 other 89 no/don’t know/unable to name 5. Can you give me the name of the president pro tem of the California State Senate? [code, don’t read] 3% Don Perata 3 other 94 no/don’t know/unable to name 6. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job? 39% approve 40 disapprove 21 don’t know 7. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 44% right direction 46 wrong direction 10 don’t know 8. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 40% good times 49 bad times 11 don’t know 29 Californians and Their Government 9. Do you think that Governor Schwarzenegger and the state legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year or not? 49% yes, will be able to work together 40 no, will not be able to work together 11 don’t know 10.Changing topics, do you think the number of people without health insurance is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem in California today? 75% big problem 17 somewhat of a problem 6 not a problem 2 don’t know 11.How concerned are you personally about being able to afford necessary health care when a family member gets sick? 56% very concerned 15 somewhat concerned 13 not too concerned 15 not at all concerned 1 don’t know 12.Do you think California’s health care system is in need of major changes or minor changes or that it is basically fine the way it is? 72% major changes 17 minor changes 8 fine the way it is 3 don’t know 13.Would you favor or oppose a plan requiring all Californians to have health insurance, with costs shared by employers, health care providers, and individuals? 72% favor 22 oppose 6 don’t know [rotate questions 14 and 15] 14.Do you think the U.S. government should provide a national health insurance program for all Americans, even if this would require higher taxes? 66% yes 30 no 4 don’t know 15.Do you think the U.S. government should provide a national health insurance program for all children under the age of 18, even if this would require higher taxes? 73% yes 23 no 4 don’t know 16.Changing topics, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling his job as president of the United States? 28% approve 68 disapprove 4 don’t know [rotate questions 17 and 18] 17.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling the issue of immigration? 28% approve 63 disapprove 9 don’t know 18.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling the situation in Iraq? 21% approve 75 disapprove 4 don’t know 19.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is handling her job? 39% approve 31 disapprove 30 don’t know 30 PPIC Statewide Survey 20.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job? 33% approve 54 disapprove 13 don’t know 21.Do you think things in the United States are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 31% right direction 63 wrong direction 6 don’t know 22.Turning to economic conditions, do you think that during the next 12 months the United States will have good times financially or bad times? 39% good times 53 bad times 8 don’t know 23.Do you think that President Bush and the U.S. Congress will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year or not? 28% yes, will be able to work together 68 no, will not be able to work together 4 don’t know 24.Changing topics, in general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq? 3% very well 15 somewhat well 26 not too well 53 not at all well 3 don’t know 25.All in all, do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq or not? 25% yes, worth it 71 no, not worth it 4 don’t know Questionnaire and Results 26.As you may know, the U.S. is sending more than 20,000 additional troops to Iraq. From what you have heard or read, would you say this troop increase is making the situation in Iraq better, making it worse, or is it having no impact on the situation in Iraq so far? 18% better 40 worse 37 no impact 5 don’t know 27.Do you think the United States should or should not set a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq sometime in 2008? 69% should 27 should not 4 don’t know 28.On another topic, please indicate which statement comes closest to your own view —even if neither is exactly right: [rotate] [1] Immigrants today are a benefit to California because of their hard work and job skills [or] [2] Immigrants today are a burden to California because they use public services. 60% immigrants are a benefit to California 32 immigrants are a burden to California 8 don’t know 29.Next, do you think that immigration policy in the United States today is in need of major changes, minor changes, or is it basically fine the way it is? 74% major changes 18 minor changes 6 fine the way it is 2 don’t know June 2007 31 Californians and Their Government 30.If you had to choose, what do you think should happen to most illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the United States for at least two years? [rotate] [1] They should be given a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status [or] [2] They should be deported back to their native country. 74% chance to keep jobs 23 deported 3 don’t know 31.Would you favor or oppose a program allowing people from other countries to be guest workers in the U.S. for a temporary period of time and then be required to return to their home country? 63% favor 31 oppose 6 don’t know 32.When the U.S. government is deciding which immigrants to admit to this country, [rotate] [1] should priority be given to people who have family members already living in the U.S. [or] [2] should priority be given to people based on education, job skills and work experience? 49% education, job skills, work experience 35 family members already in U.S. 9 it depends (volunteered) 7 don’t know On another topic, [rotate questions 33 and 34] 33.Would you like to see the Supreme Court make it harder to get an abortion than it is now, make it easier to get an abortion than it is now, or leave the ability to get an abortion the same as it is now? 33% harder 14 easier 47 same 6 don’t know 34.In 1973, the Roe v. Wade decision established a woman’s constitutional right to an abortion, at least in the first three months of pregnancy. Would you like to see the Supreme Court completely overturn the Roe vs. Wade decision, or not? 30% yes, overturn Roe vs. Wade 65 no, not overturn Roe vs. Wade 5 don’t know 35.Changing topics, do you favor or oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to be legally married? 45% favor 49 oppose 6 don’t know Next, thinking about the issue of poverty, [rotate questions 36 and 37] 36.Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: It is the responsibility of government to take care of people who can’t take care of themselves. Do you completely agree, mostly agree, mostly disagree, or completely disagree with this statement? 25% completely agree 41 mostly agree 20 mostly disagree 11 completely disagree 3 don’t know 37.Please indicate which statement comes closest to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. [rotate] [1] Poor people have it easy because they can get government benefits without doing anything in return [or] [2] Poor people have hard lives because government benefits don’t go far enough to help them live decently. 29% poor people have it easy 59 poor people have hard lives 12 don’t know 32 PPIC Statewide Survey 38.Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote? 73% yes [ask q38a] 27 no [skip to q39f] 38a.Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or as an independent? 42% Democrat [ask q39a] 32 Republican [skip to q39b] 5 another party (specify) [skip to q41] 21 independent [skip to q39c] 39a.Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 51% strong 46 not very strong 3 don’t know [skip to q40a] 39b.Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 47% strong 50 not very strong 3 don’t know [skip to q40b] 39c.Would you join a political party if it was a good reflection of your political views or do you prefer to be unaffiliated with any specific party? 25% join a political party 71 remain unaffiliated 4 don’t know 39d.And were you previously registered with a major party or have you always been an independent? 38% previously registered [ask q39e] 60 always been an independent [skip to q39f] 2 don’t know [skip to q39f] Questionnaire and Results 39e.And what party were you previously registered with? [code, don’t read] 37% Republican Party 54 Democratic Party 1 Libertarian 1 American Independent 4 other (specify) 3 don’t know 39f.Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party? 22% Republican Party 46 Democratic Party 24 neither 8 don’t know 39g.California voters like yourself will be able to choose between voting in the Democratic primary or selecting a nonpartisan ballot on February 5th. Both ballots include state proposition measures. Do you plan to vote in the Democratic primary or on the nonpartisan ballot? 16% Democratic primary [ask q40a] 60 nonpartisan ballot [skip to q40c] 3 not planning to vote [skip to q40c] 21 don’t know [skip to q40c] [Responses recorded for questions 40a-40c are for likely voters only.] 40a.If the Democratic primary for president were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? [rotate names and then ask “or someone else”] 35% Hillary Clinton 20 Barack Obama 19 Al Gore 9 John Edwards 3 Bill Richardson 2 Dennis Kucinich 2 Joe Biden -- Chris Dodd -- Mike Gravel 2 someone else (specify) 8 don’t know June 2007 33 Californians and Their Government Without Gore (recalculated, based on second choice of Gore voters): 41% Hillary Clinton 25 Barack Obama 12 John Edwards 4 Bill Richardson 3 Joe Biden 2 Dennis Kucinich -- Chris Dodd -- Mike Gravel 2 someone else (specify) 11 don’t know [skip to q40c] 40b.If the Republican primary for president were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? [rotate names and then ask “or someone else”] 29% Rudy Giuliani 15 John McCain 12 Mitt Romney 11 Fred Thompson 6 Newt Gingrich 3 Duncan Hunter 3 Tom Tancredo 2 Ron Paul 1 Sam Brownback 1 Mike Huckabee -- Jim Gilmore -- Tommy Thompson 5 someone else (specify) 12 don’t know Without Gingrich (recalculated, based on second choice of Gingrich voters): 31% Rudy Giuliani 16 John McCain 13 Mitt Romney 13 Fred Thompson 3 Duncan Hunter 3 Tom Tancredo 2 Ron Paul 1 Sam Brownback 1 Mike Huckabee -- Jim Gilmore -- Tommy Thompson 5 someone else (specify) 12 don’t know 40c.In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with the choices of candidates in the presidential primary? 63% satisfied 31 not satisfied 6 don’t know 41.How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2008 presidential election? 14% very closely 41 fairly closely 30 not too closely 15 not at all closely 42.Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 9% very liberal 22 somewhat liberal 29 middle-of-the-road 25 somewhat conservative 12 very conservative 3 don’t know 34 PPIC Statewide Survey 43.Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics? 23% great deal 38 fair amount 30 only a little 8 none 1 don’t know 44.How often would you say you vote? 49% always 17 nearly always 10 part of the time 5 seldom 19 never 45.Changing topics, do you yourself ever use a computer at home, at work, or at school? If yes: Do you use a computer often or only sometimes? 59% yes, often [ask q46] 16 yes, sometimes [ask q46] 25 no [skip to q47] 46.Do you ever go online to access the Internet or worldwide web or send or receive email? If yes: Do you do this often or only sometimes? 54% yes, often 16 yes, sometimes 30 no/do not use a computer 47.Do you have any type of personal computer, including laptops, in your home? These do not include game machines. If yes: Do you use your home computer often, only sometimes, or never? 52% yes, often [ask q48] 14 yes, sometimes [ask q48] 6 yes, never use [ask q48] 28 no, do not have any computers at home [skip to d1] Questionnaire and Results 48.What kind of Internet connection do you have at home? Do you use a dial-up telephone line, or do you have some other type of connection, such as a DSL-enabled phone line, a cable modem, or a T-1 or fiber optic connection? 31% DSL-enabled phone line 18 cable modem 12 dial-up telephone line 2 T-1 or fiber optic connection 2 other (specify) 31 do not have Internet access/no computer at home 4 don’t know [d1-d5: demographic questions] d6. On another topic, are you, yourself, now covered by any form of health insurance or health plan? 78% yes [ask d6a] 20 no [skip to d6e] 2 don’t know d6a.Which type of insurance do you now have? Is it a plan through your or your spouse’s employer, a plan you purchased yourself, are you covered by Medicare or Medi-cal, some other government program, or do you get your health insurance from somewhere else? 60% private plan though your or your spouse’s employer 12 plan purchased yourself 11 Medi-care 7 Medi-cal 5 some other government program 3 somewhere else (specify) 2 don’t know June 2007 35 Californians and Their Government d6b.Overall, how do you feel about your current health insurance policy? 49% very satisfied 38 somewhat satisfied 7 not too satisfied 4 not at all satisfied 2 don’t know d6c.How worried are you about losing your health insurance coverage? 19% very worried 17 somewhat worried 23 not too worried 40 not at all worried 1 don’t know d6d.At any time in the past 12 months, have you or a family member been without health insurance? 18% yes 81 no 1 don’t know d6e.How worried are you about having to pay more for your health care or health insurance? 40% very worried 27 somewhat worried 16 not too worried 16 not at all worried 1 don’t know [d7-d11: demographic questions] 36 PPIC Statewide Survey PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ruben Barrales President and Chief Executive Officer San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce Angela Blackwell Founder and Chief Executive Officer PolicyLink Paul Brest President The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Mollyann Brodie Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director University of California Washington Center James E. Canales President The James Irvine Foundation Jon Cohen Director of Polling The Washington Post Matthew K. Fong Special Counsel Sheppard, Mullin, Richter & Hampton, LLP William Hauck President California Business Roundtable Russell Hancock President and CEO Joint Venture Silicon Valley Network Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Carol S. Larson President and Chief Executive Officer The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Monica Lozano Publisher and Chief Executive Officer La Opinión Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Dan Rosenheim News Director KPIX-TV Carol Stogsdill President Stogsdill Consulting Cathy Taylor Vice President and Editorial Commentary Director Orange County Register Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA BOARD OF DIRECTORS Thomas C. Sutton, Chair Retired Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Pacific Life Insurance Company Mark Baldassare President and Chief Executive Officer Public Policy Institute of California Linda Griego President and Chief Executive Officer Griego Enterprises, Inc. Edward K. Hamilton Chairman Hamilton, Rabinovitz & Alschuler, Inc. Gary K. Hart Former State Senator and Secretary of Education State of California Walter B. Hewlett Director Center for Computer Assisted Research in the Humanities Ki Suh Park Design and Managing Partner Gruen Associates Constance L. Rice Co-Director The Advancement Project Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center Copyright © 2007 by Public Policy Institute of California All rights reserved San Francisco, CA Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source and the above copyright notice is included. PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 800 San Francisco, California 94111 phone: 415.291.4400 fax: 415.291.4401 www.ppic.org survey@ppic.org" } ["___content":protected]=> string(102) "

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" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(108) "https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-june-2007/s_607mbs/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(8607) ["ID"]=> int(8607) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:39:06" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(3844) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(8) "S 607MBS" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(8) "s_607mbs" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(12) "S_607MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(7) "1515216" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(93417) "J u n e 2 0 0 7 &Californians their government in collaboration with The James Irvine Foundation Mark Baldassare Dean Bonner Jennifer Paluch Sonja Petek PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 800 San Francisco, California 94111 phone: 415.291.4400 fax: 415.291.4401 www.ppic.org survey@ppic.org TABLE OF CONTENTS About the Survey Press Release State Issues National Issues Regional Map Methodology Questionnaire and Results 1 3 7 15 25 27 29 ABOUT THE SURVEY The PPIC Statewide Survey provides policymakers, the media, and the general public with objective, advocacy-free information on the perceptions, opinions, and public policy preferences of California residents. Inaugurated in April 1998, this is the 78th PPIC Statewide Survey in a series that has generated a database that includes the responses of over 162,000 Californians. This survey is the 24th in our Californians and Their Government series, which is conducted periodically to examine the social, economic, and political trends that influence public policy preferences and ballot choices. It is supported by funding from The James Irvine Foundation. The current survey seeks to raise public awareness, inform decision makers, and stimulate public discussion of state and national issues. The survey examines Californians’ opinions about the overall direction of the state and the nation, their attitudes toward the job performance of the state and federal elected officials who represent them, and their early preferences in the 2008 presidential primaries. We also ask residents about their attitudes and preferences regarding current policy issues such as health care coverage, immigration, and Iraq. This report presents the responses of 2,003 California adult residents throughout the state on the following topics: „ State issues, including approval ratings for Governor Schwarzenegger and the state legislature; perceptions of the most important issues facing California today; opinions about the general direction of the state and the outlook for the state’s economy; and knowledge of elected state officials. We also consider perceptions of health care reform, including whether changes to the health care system are needed; levels of concern about the number of uninsured Californians; attitudes toward requiring health insurance for all Californians; opinions about the responsibility of the federal government to provide insurance for all Americans or for all children under 18; and personal levels of concern over affordable health care. „ National issues, including overall approval ratings for President Bush and his handling of immigration and the situation in Iraq; perceptions of the overall direction and economic outlook of the nation; overall approval ratings of Congress and Speaker Pelosi; attitudes toward the situation in Iraq, including the impact of the addition of more than 20,000 newly deployed troops and setting a timetable for withdrawl from Iraq. We also consider the issue of U.S. immigration policy reform, including perceptions of whether changes are needed; attitudes toward a guest worker program; and preferences toward the admission priority of prospective immigrants. Other issues include attitudes toward abortion rights; attitudes toward legalizing same-sex marriage; and early candidate preferences in the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries. „ The extent to which Californians—based on their political party affiliation, region of residence, race/ethnicity, and other demographics—may differ with regard to perceptions, attitudes, and preferences involving state and national issues. Copies of this report may be ordered online (www.ppic.org) or by phone (415-291-4400). For questions about the survey, please contact survey@ppic.org. View our searchable PPIC Statewide Survey database online at http://www.ppic.org/main/survAdvancedSearch.asp. 1 PRESS RELEASE Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: http://www.ppic.org/main/pressreleaseindex.asp SURVEY ON CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT State Has Immigration Jitters And Post-Partisan Depression LITTLE FAITH THAT BUSH, CONGRESS OR GOVERNOR, LEGISLATURE CAN WORK TOGETHER; REPUBLICANS ALMOST AS NEGATIVE AS DEMOCRATS ABOUT BUSH’S JOB ON IMMIGRATION SAN FRANCISCO, California, June 27, 2007 — When it comes to Californians’ public policy priorities, immigration is leaving other issues in the proverbial dust, according to a survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), supported by funding from The James Irvine Foundation. Although California residents support some of the federal proposals for immigration reform, they have little faith that the Republican president and Democratic-led Congress can work together effectively in the coming year. And they feel the same way about the “post-partisan” circumstances in Sacramento. Immigration tops just about everyone’s list of the most important issues facing California today. This holds true across regions, political parties, racial and ethnic groups, and gender. One-quarter (25%) of all residents name immigration/illegal immigration as the state’s most pressing issue. The economy (11%) and health care (8%) lag behind, a distant second and third. Results are almost identical for likely voters (27% immigration, 11% health care, 9% economy). Although Republicans (39%) are far more likely than Democrats (15%) and much more likely than independents (25%) to name immigration as the state’s most important issue, it still holds first place across parties. It is also the most important issue among Latinos (23%), whites (28%), men (26%), and women (24%). “Considering how much more leeway the state has to address the state’s pressing health care, education, and budget problems, this pervasive fixation on immigration is troubling,” says PPIC president and statewide survey director Mark Baldassare. “State leaders cannot make immigration policy, but they will continue to feel the fallout of voter discontent over its effects.” And, as he notes, Californians have identified immigration as their most important issue in every PPIC survey since April of 2006. SUPPORT FOR FEDERAL IMMIGRATION REFORM About three-fourths (74%) of all residents say U.S. immigration policy needs major changes, a belief shared by at least two-thirds in all political parties and all demographic and racial and ethnic groups. And they support many of the proposals in the Senate’s current immigration reform bill. Nearly three-fourths (74%) say illegal immigrants who have lived in the United States for more than two years should be given a chance to keep their jobs and apply for legal status. Only about one-fourth (23%) say these immigrants should be deported to their native countries. Support for providing a path to legalization is also very high among the state’s likely voters (65%). However, it is higher among Democrats (79%) and independents (72%) than among Republicans (51%). There are also partisan differences in support for another proposed reform—temporary guest worker programs. Seven in 10 Republicans (71%) support the idea of allowing foreigners to be employed as guest workers in the United States, and then requiring them to return home, compared to 64 percent of 3 Californians and Their Government Democrats and 59 percent of independents. About two-thirds of all adults (63%) and likely voters (67%) favor this kind of guest worker program. However, Californians are more divided over another element in the Senate bill—who should be given priority in being admitted to the country. About half of residents (49%) think priority should be given to immigrants with job skills and education, while 35 percent choose family ties in the United States as the most important criterion (9% say it depends and 7% don’t know). Among likely voters, preference for skills and education reaches a majority (56%), while fewer (30%) favor family status. HONEYMOON OVER FOR NEW CONGRESS, PELOSI Despite this support for federal immigration reform, residents have little faith that Republican President George W. Bush and the Democratic-led Congress will work together to accomplish a lot this year: 68 percent say they will not. Only 28 percent believe they will—a 10-point drop from the 38 percent who believed this in January. In general, the new Congress’s grace period is definitely over. Only one-third (33%) of Californians give Congress positive ratings, a 9-point drop since the new Democratic majority took over in January (42%). The news is similar for Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, whose approval ratings have fallen 13 points among her fellow Californians since March (52% to 39%). On the whole, only about one-third (31%) of Californians say things in the nation are going in the right direction, while nearly two-thirds (63%) say they are going in the wrong direction. Likely voters are even more pessimistic (26% right direction, 68% wrong direction). Majorities across political parties also believe things are going in the wrong direction (Democrats 74%, independents 66%, Republicans 54%), although Republicans (40%) are twice as likely as Democrats (20%) to say things are going in the right direction. BUSH: WAR TORN AND IMMIGRATION BASHED While Congressional ratings are slumping, approval for President Bush may be nearing rock bottom. The president’s ratings remain at the historic low mark they reached in March: 68 percent disapprove of the job he is doing and only 28 percent approve. And likely voters feel about the same (69% disapprove, 29% approve). Moreover, the partisan differences in his ratings are not as wide as might be expected. While a majority of Republicans (56%) approve of the president’s job performance, the share who disapprove—40 percent—is at the highest point ever. Among Democrats and independents, disapproval is very high (88% and 76%, respectively). The president’s low approval ratings reflect his ratings on the Iraq conflict. Disapproval is overwhelming among all Californians (75% disapprove, 21% approve), Democrats (91% disapprove, 7% approve) and independents (80% disapprove, 19% approve). However, Republicans are closely split (47% disapprove, 49% approve). The attitude most residents have about progress in Iraq may explain a lot about the president’s low approval on the issue: Over half (53%) say things are going not at all well, 26 percent say they are not going too well, 15 percent say they are going somewhat well, and only 3 percent say they are going very well. These views precisely mirror those of likely voters. Moreover, most Californians today (71%) say it was not worth going to war in Iraq in the first place. This is a 10-point jump since PPIC first asked this question in August 2004. Although a majority of Republicans (57%) continue to say the effort was worthwhile, this is much smaller than the majority of Democrats (88%) and independents (71%) who disagree. “The public’s loss of faith has settled pretty deeply on Iraq and will almost certainly make leading and going forward on the issue very difficult,” says Baldassare. Case in point: As the administration continues to increase troop numbers in Iraq, most Californians say the action is either making the situation worse (40%) or making no difference (37%). Second case in point: Nearly seven in 10 (69%) residents think the 4 PPIC Statewide Survey Press Release United States should set a timetable to withdraw from Iraq sometime in 2008, something the Bush administration strongly opposes. As bad as Iraq has been for the president’s ratings, immigration may be hurting him as much—or even more among Republicans. Sixty-two percent of Republicans disapprove of how the president is handing the issue of immigration; only 29 percent approve. These numbers are not so far from ratings by Democrats (72% disapprove, 20% approve) and are very close to independents’ ratings (65% disapprove, 26% approve). Perceptions are also similar among all likely voters (69% disapprove, 22% approve). POST-PARTISAN DEPRESSION AND HEALTH CARE BLUES? The growing misgivings Californians have about partisanship at the national level reflect their misgivings about state government. Residents are much less likely today than they were in January to believe that state leaders will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the coming year. Confidence that Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and the state legislature will be able to work together has dropped 13 points from a solid majority (62%) in January, to just about half (49%) today. This has not, however, affected approval ratings for the governor (57% all adults and 65% likely voters approve), or the legislature (39% all adults and 35% likely voters approve). These numbers have remained about the same as they were in January. So why the lack of faith? “A number of recent events could be signaling trouble and affecting the public’s confidence in state leadership,” says Baldassare. “For example, at the beginning of the year, there was big fanfare about health care from Sacramento, but people have seen little progress.” And Californians do think health care is in crisis. Three-quarters (75%) of all residents and likely voters say the number of people without health insurance is a big problem in the state today, a view held by seven in 10 residents in every regional and demographic group. Little wonder that seven in 10 (72%) Californians also think the state’s health care system is in need of major changes. What kind of changes? Residents (72%) and likely voters (65%) strongly support Governor Schwarzenegger’s plan to require residents to have health insurance, and have employers, health care providers, and individuals share the costs. In fact, majorities across the political spectrum support the proposal (Democrats 81%, independents 69%, Republicans 52%). Some of the push for change may reflect Californians’ personal fears about being able to afford health care if a member of their family gets sick: A majority (56%) are very concerned, 15 percent are somewhat concerned, and only 28 percent say they are not too concerned or not at all concerned. Given the current health care debate, and the competing plans being circulated by the governor and other legislative leaders, it is important to note that among residents who currently have health insurance, twothirds are either very worried (40%) or somewhat worried (27%) about having to pay more for their health care or insurance. Fewer are very worried (19%) or somewhat worried (17%) about losing their coverage. On this question, most are either not at all worried (40%) or not too worried (23%). However, there are major differences across income levels, with households earning less than $40,000 per year far more likely to be very worried about losing their insurance than households earning over $80,000 annually (30% to 8%, respectively). WHO’S MINDING THE STORE? PPIC’s May survey found very low levels of knowledge among likely voters about policy issues. This month’s survey finds that incredibly few likely voters know who some of the state’s top elected officials and most powerful decisionmakers are. Only 11 percent can name Fabian Núñez as the speaker of the state assembly, and about half that number (6%) can name Don Perata as the president pro tem of the state senate. In contrast, Governor Schwarzenegger enjoys just about universal recognition among likely voters (97%). A mere 3 percent of likely voters can correctly name all three. June 2007 5 Californians and Their Government MORE KEY FINDINGS ƒ National Health Insurance — Page 13 Two-thirds (66%) of residents think the U.S. government should provide a national health insurance program even if it means higher taxes. Even more (73%) support such a program for children under the age of 18. ƒ Abortion Rights — Page 22 Most Californians (61%) say the ability to get an abortion should either stay the same or be easier; one-third (33%) believe it should be more difficult—a 7-point jump since September 2006. ƒ Same-Sex Marriage Splits Residents — Page 22 Californians remain deeply divided on the issue of allowing same-sex couples to be legally married. Almost half (49%) are opposed, while 45 percent are in favor, and 6 percent don’t know. Attitudes on this question have barely budged in the three times PPIC has asked it since February 2004. ƒ Clinton, Guiliani Early Favorites in ’08 Primary — Pages 23 and 24 Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama (35% to 20%) among likely Democratic primary voters; Rudy Guiliani leads John McCain (29% to 15%) among likely Republican primary voters. ƒ Democrats Happier With Choice Of Candidates — Pages 23 and 24 Likely Democratic primary voters are much more satisfied with their choice of candidates than likely Republican primary voters are with theirs (74% to 57% respectively). Members of both groups are highly engaged even at this early stage, with 75 percent of Democrats and 72 percent of Republicans following news about the candidates either fairly or very closely. ABOUT THE SURVEY This edition of the PPIC Statewide Survey is the 24th in the institute’s Californians and Their Government series and is supported by funding from The James Irvine Foundation. This survey is intended to raise public awareness, inform decisionmakers, and stimulate public discussions about Californians’ attitudes toward the social, economic, and political trends that influence public policy preferences. Findings are based on a telephone survey of 2,003 California adult residents interviewed between June 12 and June 19, 2007. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish. The sampling error for the total sample is +/2%. The sampling error for subgroups is larger: For the 1,451 registered voters it is +/-2.5%, and for the 983 likely voters it is +/- 3%. For more information on methodology, including the sampling error for additional subgroups, see page 27. Mark Baldassare is president and CEO of PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has directed since 1998. PPIC is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to improving public policy through objective, nonpartisan research on the economic, social, and political issues that affect Californians. The institute was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. This report will appear on PPIC’s website (www.ppic.org) after 10 p.m. on June 27. ### 6 PPIC Statewide Survey STATE ISSUES KEY FINDINGS „ A strong majority of Californians approve of the governor’s job performance. The state legislature’s approval ratings this year, though still well below a majority, are significantly higher than last year. (page 10) „ Immigration (25%) continues to top the list of Californians’ most important issues facing the state today. Fewer mention jobs and the economy (11%), health care and health costs (8%), crime or gangs (7%), and education and schools (7%). (page 8) „ Californians’ outlook for the state is mixed (44% right direction, 46% wrong direction), while 63 percent think things in the country are headed in the wrong direction. (page 9) „ Over nine in 10 Californians can name Arnold Schwarzenegger as the governor of the state, but few can name Fabian Núñez as the speaker of the state assembly (8%), or Don Perata as the president pro tem of the state senate (3%). (page 11) „ About three in four residents see the number of people without health insurance as a big problem in California today and believe that California’s health care system is in need of major changes. (page 12) „ Most Californians want the U.S. government to provide a national health insurance program for all Americans (66%) and believe the federal government should provide a national health insurance program for children under 18 (73%), even if these programs mean higher taxes. (page 13) „ Most Californians are concerned about being able to afford health care when a family member gets sick and worry about paying more for their health care and health insurance. Fewer worry about losing their health insurance or express dissatisfaction with their health insurance plan. (page 14) Approval Ratings of Elected Officials Percent all adults 100 Governor Legislature 80 64 59 60 60 58 57 40 40 36 40 36 20 40 37 26 40 39 29 26 0 2007 2007 2006 2006 2004 2004 2005 2005 June May Jan Jan M ay Jan May Jan Most Important Issue Immigration, illegal immigration Jobs, economy Education, schools 40 Percent all adults 30 20 10 0 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Sept 2005 April 2006 June 2007 Percent all adults Health Care Plan Requiring All Californians to Have Health Insurance 100 80 72 81 Favor Oppose 69 60 40 22 20 52 42 13 25 0 All adults Dem Rep Ind 7 Californians and Their Government MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE One in four Californians name immigration as the most important issue facing the state today. Fewer mention jobs and the economy (11%), health care and health costs (8%), crime, gangs, and drugs (7%), or education and schools (7%). Immigration is also the top concern among likely voters. Since our April 2006 survey, Californians have continued to identify immigration as the state’s most important issue. Today, immigration is the top concern across political groups; however, Republicans (39%) are much more likely than independents (25%) and Democrats (15%) to name immigration as their number one issue. Many Democrats mention jobs and the economy (13%) and health care (11%) as the most important issue. Immigration is also the top concern across regions. Residents in the Other Southern California region (35%) are the most likely to name immigration, followed by Los Angeles (27%) and Central Valley (22%) residents. San Francisco Bay Area residents are the least likely to name immigration (15%) and the most likely to name education and schools (13%) as the top state issue today. Immigration is the most important issue across all demographic groups as well. Whites (28%) and Latinos (23%) both name immigration ahead of other concerns. Among Latinos, jobs and the economy (17%), and crime, gangs, and drugs (15%) are also frequently mentioned as top concerns. The issue of crime, gangs, and drugs is much more likely to be mentioned by Latinos (15%) than whites (2%). For both foreign-born and native-born residents, immigration is the top concern (25% each). Immigration is the top issue mentioned among men and women, and across age, education, and income groups. Among the California residents who name immigration as their top concern, 83 percent think that major changes are needed in U.S. immigration policy. “Thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today?” Top five issues mentioned Immigration, illegal immigration Jobs, economy Health care, health costs Crime, gangs, and drugs Education, schools All Adults 25% 11% 8% 7% 7% Democrat 15 13 11 5 9 Party Republican 39 8 6 3 6 Independent 25 9 10 4 8 Central Valley 22 11 10 7 5 San Francisco Bay Area 15 13 9 6 13 Region Los Angeles 27 11 7 10 7 Other Southern California 35 10 6 5 4 Race/Ethnicity Latinos Whites 23 17 5 15 5 28 7 9 2 8 Likely Voters 27 9 11 3 9 8 PPIC Statewide Survey State Issues OVERALL MOOD Californians are divided when asked about the overall outlook for the state, with 44 percent saying it is going in the right direction and 46 percent saying it is going in the wrong direction. The overall mood was more upbeat in January (55% right direction, 37% wrong direction), but is largely unchanged since March. Half of San Francisco Bay Area residents (51%) say things are headed in the right direction, compared to 45 percent of Central Valley residents and even fewer residents in the Other Southern California region (43%) and Los Angeles (40%). Findings are similar across political parties, while men (47%) and whites (47%) are slightly more likely than women (42%) and Latinos (43%) to say things are headed in the right direction. Optimism about the state’s direction increases with education, income, and homeownership. When asked about the state’s economy for the coming year residents are somewhat more pessimistic than optimistic. Forty-nine percent of residents think that during the next 12 months we will have bad times financially, while 40 percent say they expect good economic times. Again, the mood was more upbeat in January (50% good times, 39% bad times), but is largely unchanged since March. Residents are more pessimistic in the Central Valley (55%), followed by residents in Los Angeles (50%), the Other Southern California region (49%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (42%). Latinos (55%) and women (53%) are somewhat more likely than whites (45%) and men (45%) to think that over the next 12 months California will have bad economic times. “Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Right direction 44% 45% 42% 44% 44% Wrong direction 46 46 49 45 47 Don’t know 10 9 9 11 9 Californians are much more pessimistic about the direction of their country than of their state. Sixty-three percent of residents say things in the United States are headed in the wrong direction. These results are similar to January (60% wrong direction). Majorities across political parties are pessimistic. Strong majorities across all regional and demographic groups are also pessimistic. However, Californians are less pessimistic about the direction of the country than are adults nationwide, according to a recent Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll (24% right direction, 69% wrong direction). Californians’ perceptions of the U.S. economy during the next 12 months mirror their views of the state’s economy. About half (53%) of all adults now think bad economic times are to come; only 39 percent expect good economic times. Californians were more optimistic about the U.S. economy in January (47% good times, 46% bad times). Across all regions and demographic groups, residents are more likely to say the country will have bad times than good times. Republicans (55%) are much more likely than independents (37%) and Democrats (29%) to believe that the country will have good economic times. “Do you think things in the United States are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Right direction 31% 20% 40% 28% 26% Wrong direction 63 74 54 66 68 Don’t know 6 6 6 6 6 June 2007 9 Californians and Their Government APPROVAL RATINGS OF ELECTED STATE OFFICIALS Today, 57 percent of adults and 65 percent of likely voters approve of the way Governor Schwarzenegger is handling his job. The governor’s approval ratings among all adults have increased slightly from May (53%) and are now similar to January (58%). His approval ratings among all adults today are much higher than in May 2006 (36%) and May 2005 (40%), but are lower than they were in May 2004 (64%). While the governor receives majority approval across political parties, his approval ratings are higher among Republicans (78%) than independents (60%) or Democrats (54%). Across regions, his approval ratings are higher in the Central Valley (62%), San Francisco Bay Area (59%), and the Other Southern California region (59%) than in Los Angeles (49%). Governor Schwarzenegger’s approval ratings are significantly higher among whites than Latinos (72% to 34%) and slightly higher among men than women (60% to 54%). His approval ratings increase with age, education, income, and home ownership. Approve Disapprove Don’t know “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 57% 54% 78% 60% 31 35 15 27 12 11 7 13 Likely Voters 65% 24 11 Today, 39 percent of all adults and 35 percent of likely voters approve of the way the California Legislature is handling its job. Approval of the legislature among all adults continues to hover around 40 percent this year (40% January, 41% March, 38% April, 37% May, 39% today). The legislature’s approval ratings today are 13 points higher than in May 2006 and May 2005 (26% each) and are similar to May 2004 (40%). Democrats (47%) are much more likely than independents (35%) and Republicans (30%) to approve of the legislature. Across regions, residents of the Central Valley (43%) are more likely than those in the San Francisco Bay Area (39%), Los Angeles (38%), and the Other Southern California region (36%) to approve. Latinos (44%) are more likely than whites (37%) to approve, while approval is similar among men and women and across education and income levels. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Approve 39% 47% 30% 35% 35% Disapprove 40 34 52 42 47 Don’t know 21 19 18 23 18 At the beginning of this year, six in 10 adults (62%) and likely voters (60%) were optimistic that the governor and legislature would be able to work together during the new legislative session. Today, about half of all adults and likely voters (49% each) say the governor and legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year. Expectations are similar among Republicans (52%), Democrats (49%), and independents (47%). Hopes for this year have declined across all political groups since January. 10 PPIC Statewide Survey State Issues RECOGNITION OF ELECTED STATE OFFICIALS When asked to give the name of their governor, almost all California adults (93%) and likely voters (97%) can name Arnold Schwarzenegger. Recognition is high across political parties, with Republicans (98%) slightly more likely to name Governor Schwarzenegger than Democrats (94%) and independents (93%). Across all regional and demographic groups nearly nine in 10 or more are able to name Arnold Schwarzenegger as governor. Californians are as likely as adults nationwide to correctly identify Arnold Schwarzenegger as the governor of California, according to a Pew Research Center survey earlier this year (93% answered correctly). In September 1999, less than one year after Gray Davis’s election and the start of his first term, 64 percent of California adults and 76 percent of likely voters were able to correctly identify their governor. Knowledge of the individuals who hold two of the major state legislative offices today is much lower. Eight percent of California adults and 11 percent of likely voters are able to correctly name Fabian Núñez as speaker of the California State Assembly. Núñez has held that legislative position since February 2004. Núñez has higher recognition as assembly speaker in Los Angeles (11%), where his legislative district is located, while recognition among Latinos is at 7 percent. Even fewer Californians can name Don Perata as president pro tem of the California State Senate; 3 percent of residents and 6 percent of likely voters correctly identified Perata. Perata has held that legislative position since December 2004. His recognition increases slightly among San Francisco Bay Area (8%) residents, where his legislative district is located, but nearly nine in 10 or more Californians in all regions and demographic groups are unsure of who holds this state legislative office. The ability to identify the president pro tem is highest among residents over 55 years of age (5%), those with a college education (6%), and residents with household incomes over $80,000 (7%). In September 1999, 4 percent of residents correctly identified Antonio Villaraigosa as speaker of the state assembly and only 1 percent could name John Burton as president pro tem of the state senate; this was when they had each been in those legislative positions since February 1998. Today, only 2 percent of California adults and 3 percent of likely voters can correctly name the governor, speaker of the state assembly, and president pro tem of the state senate. “Some people can’t remember the names of state officeholders, while some people can remember them. Can you give me the name of the…” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Arnold Schwarzenegger 93% 94% 98% 93% 97% California Governor Other 1 - -1 - Don’t know 6 626 3 Speaker of the California State Assembly Fabian Núñez Other Don’t know 8 8 9 10 3 334 89 89 88 86 11 3 86 President Pro Tem of the California State Senate Don Perata Other Don’t know 3 532 3 352 94 92 92 96 6 3 91 June 2007 11 Californians and Their Government CALIFORNIA’S HEALTH CARE SYSTEM Governor Schwarzenegger and the Democratic-controlled legislature have made health care reform a priority this year, leading to several proposals and much debate on the issue of expanding health care coverage. Do residents perceive the number of people without health insurance in California today as a problem? Seventy-five percent of Californians think the number of uninsured Californians is a big problem, 17 percent say it is somewhat of a problem, and only 6 percent say it is not a problem. Across political parties, strong majorities say that the number of uninsured Californians is a big problem, with Democrats (85%) and independents (78%) more likely than Republicans (63%) to say it is a big problem. Over seven in 10 residents across all regional and demographic groups say the number of uninsured is a big problem. Women (79%) see it as a bigger problem than men do (71%). Latinos (76%) and whites (74%) are similarly likely to say it is a big problem today. “Do you think the number of people without health insurance is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem in California today?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Big problem 75% 85% 63% 78% 75% Somewhat of a problem 17 10 27 17 18 Not a problem 64956 Don’t know 211 - 1 The governor and legislature are working on health care reform issues at a time when the public wants action on this topic. When asked about how much change is needed to the California health care system, about seven in 10 residents say major changes are needed, only 17 percent say minor changes, and 8 percent say it is fine the way it is. Findings for likely voters are similar. Across parties, Democrats (81%) and independents (70%) are more likely to say major changes are needed, though 59 percent of Republicans agree. Over two in three across regions say major changes are needed. Women (75%) and Latinos (76%) are more likely than men (68%) and whites (68%) to say major changes are needed. “Do you think California’s health care system is in need of major changes or minor changes or that it is basically fine the way it is?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Major changes 72% 81% 59% 70% 71% Minor changes 17 12 24 19 17 Fine the way it is 8 4 12 8 7 Don't know 33535 12 PPIC Statewide Survey State Issues CALIFORNIA AND U.S. HEALTH COVERAGE PROPOSALS One health care plan proposed by the governor would require all Californians to have health insurance, with costs shared by employers, health care providers, and individuals. A majority of residents (72%) and likely voters (65%) favor this proposal. Findings for adults are similar to March (71% favor, 24% oppose). “Would you favor or oppose a plan requiring all Californians to have health insurance, with costs shared by employers, health care providers, and individuals?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Favor 72% 81% 52% 69% 65% Oppose 22 13 42 25 29 Don’t know 66666 Even as state policymakers discuss proposals to extend health care coverage for California residents, a majority of California adults (66%) and likely voters (58%) think that the U.S. government should provide a national health insurance program for all citizens, even if it requires increasing taxes. Our results mirror the views of all Americans in a national poll by CNN/Opinion Research Corporation in May (64% yes, 35% no). Attitudes in California vary greatly across political parties, receiving the greatest support among Democrats (78%) and independents (64%), with significantly less support among Republicans (35%). Majorities in all regions and demographic groups favor the proposal. However, support is much higher among Latinos (82%) than whites (56%) and decreases with age, education, and income. “Do you think the U.S. government should provide a national health insurance program for all Americans, even if this would require higher taxes?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Yes 66% 78% 35% 64% 58% No 30 18 61 33 39 Don’t know 4 4 4 3 3 Californians are even more inclined to support a federal program that would provide health insurance for all children under the age of 18. Seventy-three percent of all adults and 63 percent of likely voters think the U.S. government should provide this type of program, even if it would require paying higher taxes. The California results are again similar to the CNN national poll (73% yes, 25% no). Democrats (85%) continue to be more supportive than Republicans (43%) of national health insurance programs. More than six in 10 in all regions and demographic groups support a national health insurance program for all children under the age of 18. Among California residents with health insurance, 63 percent favor a national health insurance program to cover all Americans, 70 percent favor national coverage for all children under 18, and 70 percent favor the plan to require all Californians to have health insurance, with costs shared by several parties. “Do you think the U.S. government should provide a national health insurance program for all children under the age of 18, even if this would require higher taxes?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Yes 73% 85% 43% 70% 63% No 23 12 52 27 33 Don’t know 4 3 5 3 4 June 2007 13 Californians and Their Government PERSONAL HEALTH CARE COSTS AND INSURANCE COVERAGE Are health care issues a personal concern for Californians? An overwhelming majority of all adults (71%) are very (56%) or somewhat (15%) concerned personally about being able to afford necessary health care when a family member gets sick. Likely voters are less likely to be very (44%) or somewhat (16%) concerned. Today, the level of concern with health care affordability among California adults is comparable to September 2004 (57% very, 20% somewhat, 10% not very, 13% not at all concerned). There are sharp differences across income groups. Nearly three in four adults (74%) with a total annual household income of less than $40,000 are very concerned about being able to afford necessary health care, while less than four in 10 adults (36%) with household earnings over $80,000 share the same level of concern. Majorities in all demographic groups are at least somewhat concerned. Democrats (73%) and independents (72%) are far more likely than Republicans (54%) to be at least somewhat concerned. More than six in 10 residents in all regions voice at least some concern, with concern highest in Los Angeles (77%) and the Central Valley (75%). In the context of current policy discussions, it is important to note that two in three residents also say they are very (40%) or somewhat (27%) worried about having to pay more for their health care or health insurance coverage. “How concerned are you personally about being able to afford necessary health care when a family member gets sick?” Very concerned All Adults 56% Under $40,000 74% Income $40,000 to $79,000 51% $80,000 or more 36% Somewhat concerned 15 13 18 18 Not too concerned 13 7 12 23 Not at all concerned 15 6 18 23 Don’t know 1- 1 - Likely Voters 44% 16 19 20 1 When it comes to losing health coverage, how worried are currently insured residents? Thirty-six percent of all insured adults and 27 percent of insured likely voters say they are at least somewhat worried. Once again, there are strong differences across income groups, with households earning less than $40,000 (30%) far more likely than households earning $80,000 or more (8%) to be very worried about losing their insurance coverage. Across parties, Democrats (38%) are far more likely than Republicans (20%) to be at least somewhat worried about losing their health insurance. As policy discussions about health coverage continue, it is also important to note that almost nine in 10 insured Californians are very satisfied (49%) or somewhat satisfied (38%) with their current health coverage. Insured only Very worried Somewhat worried Not too worried Not at all worried Don’t know “How worried are you about losing your health insurance coverage?” All Adults 19% Under $40,000 30% Income $40,000 to $79,000 20% $80,000 or more 8% 17 18 18 17 23 19 20 30 40 32 42 45 11 - - Likely Voters 12% 15 27 46 - 14 PPIC Statewide Survey NATIONAL ISSUES KEY FINDINGS „ Only three in 10 California adults and likely voters approve of President Bush’s overall job performance, with his ratings on Iraq even lower; two in three disapprove of his performance on immigration. (page 16) „ Approval ratings of the U.S. Congress have declined 9 points since January. Speaker Pelosi’s approval ratings have declined since March and she now receives mixed reviews (39% approve, 31% disapprove, 30% unsure). (page 17) „ Pessimism about Iraq continues to rise. Majorities of adults and likely voters (53% each) say things are going not at all well in Iraq, and seven in 10 adults think it was not worth going to war. (page 18) „ Residents are not favorable toward the recent troop surge in Iraq. Four in 10 say the additional troops are making the situation in Iraq worse. More than two in three residents favor imposing a timeline for U.S. troop withdrawal. (page 19) „ Three in four adults and likely voters say major changes are needed to U.S. immigration policy. Most want illegal immigrants to be able to keep their jobs and apply for legal status, support a guest worker program, and prefer priority to be given to immigrants with education, job skills and work experience. (pages 20, 21) „ Californians remain strongly pro-choice on abortion but are divided on legalizing samesex marriage, with opinions varying sharply along party lines. (page 22) „ Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani are early favorites in the February 2008 presidential primary. (pages 23, 24) Approval Ratings of Elected Officials 100 President Bush U.S. Congress 80 Percent all adults 60 42 40 36 20 35 33 34 37 42 33 29 28 0 Oct March Sept Jan June 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 Worth Going to War in Iraq? 100 Yes No Percent all adults 80 64 60 60 69 71 62 65 40 36 20 34 31 31 27 25 0 Aug Aug Jan Sept Jan June 2004 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 Legalizing Same-Sex Marriage 100 80 Favor Oppose Percent all adults 60 55 50 48 48 49 40 38 44 44 44 45 20 0 Jan Feb Aug Sept Jun 2000 2004 2005 2006 2007 15 Californians and Their Government APPROVAL RATINGS OF ELECTED FEDERAL OFFICIALS President Bush’s approval ratings remain at the historic low they reached in March. Today, only 28 percent of adults approve of the way the president is handling his job. Bush’s job approval ratings have hovered around 30 percent since last fall (33% September 2006, 32% October 2006, 29% January 2007, 28% March 2007). Likely voters are similar in their approval ratings of the president. Californians are slightly less favorable than are Americans nationwide. According to a Gallup Poll earlier this month, 32 percent of Americans approve of the way Bush is handling the presidency and 65 percent disapprove. Sharp partisan differences exist in the president’s approval ratings, with Republicans (56%) far more approving than independents (23%) and Democrats (11%). Majorities in all regions are negative, with disapproval highest in the San Francisco Bay Area (81%), followed by Los Angeles (69%), the Other Southern California region (62%), and the Central Valley (59%). The president’s ratings are low in all demographic groups and are similar among whites (30%) and Latinos (32%). His approval drops as education level rises. Approve Disapprove Don’t know “Changing topics, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling his job as president of the United States?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 28% 11% 56% 23% 68 88 40 76 41 4 1 Likely Voters 29% 69 2 Bush’s approval ratings on Iraq reach a new low this month, with only 21 percent of adults and 25 percent of likely voters approving. This marks a 12-point drop in approval among all adults from January 2006 (33%) and a 34-point drop from his high point on this issue in September 2002 (55%). Californians are more negative about the president’s handling of Iraq than are adults nationwide, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll earlier this month (31% approve, 67% disapprove). California Democrats (7%) and independents (19%) are much less favorable than Republicans (49%), and disapproval is strong across regions and demographic groups. Latinos are much more disapproving than whites (82% to 69%). Californians are also negative about Bush’s handling of immigration, with 28 percent of adults and 22 percent of likely voters approving of his performance on this issue. Adults nationwide are equally negative, according to a May CBS News/New York Times poll (27% approve, 60% disapprove). The large partisan divide in the president’s other approval ratings is not nearly as wide on immigration (20% Democrats, 26% independents, 29% Republicans). Approval on immigration is low in all regions, higher among men than women (31% to 25%), and drops as income and education increase. Latinos are more likely than whites (40% to 25%) to approve of the president’s performance on immigration. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling the issue of…?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Approve 21% 7% 49% 19% 25% Iraq? Disapprove 75 91 47 80 72 Don't know 4 241 3 Approve 28 20 29 26 22 Immigration? Disapprove 63 72 62 65 69 Don't know 9 999 9 16 PPIC Statewide Survey National Issues APPROVAL RATINGS OF ELECTED FEDERAL OFFICIALS (CONTINUED) As Nancy Pelosi approaches her sixth month as speaker of the House of Representatives, her approval ratings among adults reflect a 13-point drop from March (52%). Today, about four in 10 adults (39%) and likely voters (43%) approve of the way she is handling her job. Californians’ approval ratings are similar to Americans’ nationwide, according to a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll earlier this month (36% approve, 39% disapprove). California Democrats (56%) and independents (40%) are more likely than Republicans (22%) to approve of Speaker Pelosi. However, support among Democrats has dropped 14 points since March (70%). Regionally, the speaker receives her highest marks from the San Francisco Bay Area (52%), where her congressional district is located, while it is lower in Los Angeles (40%), the Central Valley (35%), and the Other Southern California region (34%). Speaker Pelosi receives similar approval among men and women, and Latinos and whites. Her approval increases with age, education, and income. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is handling her job?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Approve 39% 56% 22% 40% 43% Disapprove 31 20 60 36 42 Don’t know 30 24 18 24 15 Approval ratings of the U.S. Congress, meanwhile, have declined this year. Today, only one in three Californians (33%) and three in 10 likely voters (30%) approve of the way Congress is performing. This marks a 9-point decrease among all adults since January (42%). Today, Democrats (38%) and independents (30%) are more likely than Republicans (23%) to approve of the Democratic-majority Congress. Compared to January, approval ratings of Congress have dropped by 8 points among Democrats, 13 points among Republicans, and 10 points among independents. Today, approval ratings of Congress are similar across regions. Latinos are more likely than whites (40% to 30%) to approve of Congress, while disapproval of Congress rises with age, education, and income. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Approve 33% 38% 23% 30% 30% Disapprove 54 52 68 56 62 Don’t know 13 10 9 14 8 In January, four in 10 adults (38%) and three in 10 likely voters (30%) thought that President Bush and the U.S. Congress would be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year. Today, 28 percent of adults and 15 percent of likely voters think so. Positive expectations are similar among Republicans (24%), Democrats (19%), and independents (20%). Hopes for bipartisanship for this year have declined across all political groups since January. June 2007 17 Californians and Their Government U.S. SITUATION IN IRAQ With the war in Iraq now more than four years old, and disapproval of Bush’s handling of this issue rising, most Californians continue to say things are not going well at all. As in January, a majority of Californians hold this negative view (53%), with fewer than one in five saying things are going very (3%) or somewhat (15%) well for the U.S. in Iraq. Positive assessments have dropped 17 points since January 2006 (8% very, 27% somewhat). Californians’ views appear to be more negative than Americans’ nationwide, judging from a similar question in a May CBS News/New York Times poll that found 23 percent saying U.S. efforts to bring stability and order to Iraq were going very or somewhat well. While many in California say things are going not at all well for the U.S. in Iraq, division is wide across parties, regions, and racial/ethnic groups. Seventy percent of Democrats and 57 percent of independents say things are going not at all well, while only 27 percent of Republicans hold this view. Regionally, residents of the San Francisco Bay Area (64%) and Los Angeles (56%) are more likely than those in the Central Valley (50%) or the Other Southern California region (46%) to say things are going not at all well. Latinos (59%) are more likely than whites (47%) and women (57%) are more likely than men (50%) to say the same. Negative perceptions about Iraq also increase slightly with education. Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Don’t know “In general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 3% 1% 5% 3% 15 4 32 11 26 23 35 27 53 70 27 57 32 1 2 Likely Voters 3% 16 26 53 2 For the first time in a PPIC Statewide Survey, more than seven in 10 Californians say it was not worth going to war in Iraq. Only 25 percent of Californians now say it was worth going to war – a 9-point drop since January 2006. Large majorities of Californians this year (69% January, 71% today) have said the war was not worth the effort, compared to when we first asked this question in August 2004 (61%). Again, Californians appear to be more negative than adults nationwide: A similar question in a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll found that 61 percent believe the war in Iraq was not worth fighting. Today, large majorities of Democrats (88%) and independents (71%) say it was not worth going to war in Iraq, while a smaller majority of Republicans (57%) say the effort was worthwhile. Majorities in all regions are negative about the invasion; however, residents of the San Francisco Bay Area (82%) and Los Angeles (73%) are more likely than those in the Central Valley (64%) and the Other Southern California region (63%) to hold this pessimistic view. Women (74%) are more likely than men (68%) and Latinos (79%) more likely than whites (63%) to say that going to war was not worth it, and this belief increases with income. Yes, worth it No, not worth it Don’t know “All in all, do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq or not?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 25% 10% 57% 25% 71 88 38 71 42 5 4 Likely Voters 30% 67 3 18 PPIC Statewide Survey National Issues U.S. SITUATION IN IRAQ (CONTINUED) In our January survey, conducted shortly after President Bush announced a troop increase, 26 percent of Californians said they supported the president’s proposal, while 70 percent were opposed. Five months later, only 18 percent say the troop increase has made the situation in Iraq better. Most Californians believe that it has had either no impact (37%) or has made the situation worse (40%). Californians today are more negative about the troop increase than are Americans nationwide, according to a May CBS News/New York Times poll (20% better, 26% worse, 50% no difference). Perceptions of the impact of the troop increase vary by party, with nearly half of Republicans saying the troop increase has made the situation better, half of Democrats saying it has made the situation worse, and nearly half of independents saying the troop increase has had no impact. Across regions, at least seven in 10 residents say the troop increase has been either negative or had no impact, with residents of the San Francisco Bay Area (82%) and Los Angeles (80%) most likely to hold these views. Women (81%) are more likely than men (72%), and Latinos (86%) more likely than whites (69%) to hold these views. “As you may know, the U.S. is sending more than 20,000 additional troops to Iraq. From what you have heard or read, would you say this troop increase is making the situation in Iraq better, making it worse, or is it having no impact on the situation in Iraq so far?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Better 18% 7% 46% 17% 27% Worse 40 50 14 33 30 No impact 37 40 33 46 39 Don’t know 5 3 7 4 4 Nearly seven in 10 Californians (69%) and six in 10 likely voters (60%) think the United States should set a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq sometime in 2008. Californians are more supportive of a timetable than are Americans nationwide, according to a similar question asked earlier this month in a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll (57% should set a timetable, 39% should not). The partisan divide on this issue is deep, with 83 percent of Democrats and 64 percent of independents supporting a timetable, while a majority of Republicans (57%) are against it. More than six in 10 in each region think the United States should set a timetable, with residents of the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles (73% each) being the most supportive. Support for setting a timetable is greater among women than men (76% to 63%), and among Latinos than whites (84% to 59%), and declines with age, education, and income. Of those who say it was not worth going to war in Iraq, 83 percent want a timetable for withdrawing U.S. troops, while 61 percent of those who believe going to war in Iraq was worthwhile are opposed to this proposal. Should Should not Don’t know “Do you think the United States should or should not set a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq sometime in 2008?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 69% 83% 39% 64% 27 13 57 32 44 4 4 Likely Voters 60% 36 4 June 2007 19 Californians and Their Government IMMIGRATION POLICY As President Bush and members of Congress attempt to revive immigration reform efforts, there is consensus that U.S. immigration policy needs attention. Three in four adults (74%) and likely voters (75%) and at least seven in 10 residents across all political parties and regions say the current policy needs major changes. This viewpoint is shared by at least two in three residents in all racial/ethnic and demographic groups. Fewer than one in 10 believes the current policy is fine the way it is. The perception that major changes are needed is somewhat higher among Latinos than whites (78% to 73%), and among women than men (79% to 69%), and increases with age. “Do you think that immigration policy in the United States today is in need of major changes, minor changes, or is it basically fine the way it is? All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind Major changes 74% 75% 71% 70% Minor changes 18 18 20 21 Fine the way it is 6577 Don't know 2222 Likely Voters 75% 17 6 2 In considering the effects that immigrants have on the state, a majority of Californians (60%) continue to say immigrants are a benefit because of their hard work and job skills, while one in three (32%) says they are a burden because they use public services. Most Republicans (57%) say immigrants are a burden while most Democrats (62%) and independents (55%) say they are a benefit. Since we began asking this question in February 2000, a majority of adults have said immigrants are a benefit to California. One controversial aspect of immigration reform is how to handle illegal immigrants who have already been living and working in the United States. Three in four California adults (74%) and two in three likely voters (65%) favor giving illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the U.S. for at least two years a chance to keep their jobs and to apply for eventual legal status. Twenty-three percent of adults and 31 percent of likely voters would prefer that these illegal immigrants be deported back to their native countries. Californians are much more likely than adults nationwide (62%) to favor giving these illegal immigrants an opportunity to stay in the U.S., according to a May CBS News/New York Times poll. In California, Republicans (51%) are far less likely than Democrats (79%) and independents (72%) to favor giving illegal immigrants a pathway to legal status. This preference for providing a pathway to legal status is strong across demographic groups, but is higher among Latinos than whites (93% to 64%), and higher among foreign-born than among U.S.-born residents (90% to 67%). Of those who say major immigration policy changes are needed, 74 percent support giving illegal immigrants a chance to stay in the United States. “If you had to choose, what do you think should happen to most illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the United States for at least two years?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind They should be given a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status 74% 79% 51% 72% They should be deported back to their native country 23 17 44 24 65% 31 Don't know 34 5 4 4 20 PPIC Statewide Survey National Issues IMMIGRATION POLICY (CONTINUED) Another element of the immigration reform debate concerns temporary guest workers. Among Californians, 63 percent of adults and 67 percent of likely voters would favor allowing guest workers to come to the United States for a temporary period of time and then be required to return to their home countries. Californians’ views are similar to those of adults nationwide (66% favor, 30% oppose), according to the May CBS News/New York Times poll. Republicans (71%) are more likely than Democrats (64%) or independents (59%) to favor a guest worker program. This proposal draws less support in Los Angeles (56%) than in the Other Southern California region (63%), the San Francisco Bay Area (65%), or the Central Valley (67%), and less support among Latinos (56%) than whites (68%). Being in favor of a guest worker program increases with education and income, and is higher among foreign-born naturalized citizens (71%) than among U.S.-born citizens (65%) or foreign-born non-citizens (52%). “Would you favor or oppose a program allowing people from other countries to be guest workers in the U.S. for a temporary period of time and then be required to return to their home country?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Favor 63% 64% 71% 59% 67% Oppose 31 29 24 35 28 Don’t know 6 7 5 6 5 Recently, there has been debate about whether current immigration policies should change to give higher preference to applicants who have the education, job skills, and work experience to fill U.S. jobs. Present policy gives priority to those who already have family members in the United States. About half of all adults (49%) would favor giving priority to those with job skills, while 35 percent would favor giving priority based on family status. Californians’ views on this issue are nearly identical to those of adults nationwide (51% job skills, 34% family) according to the May CBS/New York Times poll. While pluralities in all political parties believe priority should be given to those with job skills, Republicans (64%) are much more likely to hold this view than independents (52%) or Democrats (47%). Across regions, residents are more likely to favor priority for job skills over family unification, and this preference is highest among Other Southern California residents (56%). Belief that job skills should outweigh family unification increases with education and income and is higher among men than women (54% to 44%). While 58 percent of whites believe priority should be given to immigrants with job skills, 53 percent of Latinos believe preference should be given to those with family members in the United States. Support for giving priority to those with job skills is higher among U.S.-born citizens (56%) than foreign-born naturalized citizens (41%) or foreign-born non-citizens (31%). Of those who say major immigration policy changes are needed, 48 percent favor giving priority to those with job skills. “When the U.S. government is deciding which immigrants to admit to this country, should priority be given to people who have…” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Education, job skills, and work experience 49% 47% 64% 52% 56% Family members already living in the U.S. 35 38 22 32 30 It depends (volunteered) 97 8 10 7 Don’t know 78 6 6 7 June 2007 21 Californians and Their Government ABORTION AND SAME-SEX MARRIAGE Californians continue to support the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that prevents the enactment of state laws restricting the right of women to choose an abortion. Sixty-five percent of Californians do not want the U.S. Supreme Court to completely overturn Roe v. Wade, compared to 30 percent who would like to see the decision overturned. Still, the proportion who would like to completely overturn Roe v. Wade is somewhat higher today (30%) than in August 2005 (24%) and December 2005 (22%), when decisions were being made about appointments to the Supreme Court. Currently, 61 percent of Californians would like the Supreme Court to leave access to abortion the same as it is now (47%) or make it easier (14%). Residents today are 7 points more likely than in September 2006 to say it should be harder to get an abortion (33% today, 26% September), although the proportion holding this view today is similar to October 2005 (35%) when this question was first asked. At least six in 10 residents have said they prefer the status quo or easing abortion access in all four surveys in which this question was asked. While Republicans (41%) are much more likely than independents (24%) or Democrats (22%) to want to make it harder to get an abortion, majorities across parties (74% Democrats, 71% independents, 53% Republicans) would like to keep the status quo or make it easier. Latinos (50%) are twice as likely as whites (25%) to favor restricting access to abortion. “Would you like to see the Supreme Court make it harder to get an abortion than it is now, make it easier to get an abortion than it is now, or leave the ability to get an abortion the same as it is now?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Harder 33% 22% 41% 24% 27% Easier 14 18 6 16 15 Same 47 56 47 55 53 Don’t know 6 4 6 5 5 On the issue of same-sex marriage, Californians remain divided. Forty-five percent of adults and 46 percent of likely voters are in favor of allowing gay and lesbian couples to be legally married, while about half in each group (49% adults, 48% likely voters) are opposed. Findings have been nearly identical all three times this question has been asked since February 2004. The number of those favoring the legalization of same-sex marriage was lower when we first asked this question in January 2000 (38%). Across political parties today, majorities of Democrats (59%) and independents (52%) are in favor of allowing gay and lesbian couples to be legally married, while a majority of Republicans are opposed (68%). More than half of San Francisco Bay Area residents (58%) favor allowing same-sex marriage, while majorities in other regions are opposed. Favor for legalizing same-sex marriage declines with age and increases with education and income. Opposition is higher among Latinos than whites (54% to 45%). Favor Oppose Don’t know “Do you favor or oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to be legally married?” All Adults 45% Central Valley 38% Region San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles 58% 41% Other Southern California 40% Likely Voters 46% 49 56 36 52 54 48 66 6 7 66 22 PPIC Statewide Survey National Issues 2008 PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY With the early California presidential primary playing a prominent role in national politics, who are California’s likely voters endorsing as their party’s candidate for the 2008 presidential election? Among Democratic primary likely voters, who include Democrats as well as independents who say they’ll vote the Democratic primary ballot, Senator Hillary Clinton (35%) leads, followed by Senator Barack Obama (20%), former Vice President Al Gore (19%), former Senator John Edwards (9%), and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson (3%). Six percent would vote for other candidates, and 8 percent are undecided. Although Al Gore has not given any indication that he will enter the race, he has not ruled it out either. We thus asked a follow-up question of Gore supporters. If Gore’s supporters’ second choices are considered, Clinton (41%), Obama (25%), and Edwards (12%) would all gain some ground, but the margins of difference between these candidates would be similar. Californians are nearly identical to adults nationwide—with or without Gore in the race—according to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted in mid-June. When we presented California’s Democratic primary likely voters with a shorter list in March (including Clinton, Obama, Edwards, and Richardson), 35 percent supported Clinton, 24 percent supported Obama, 14 percent Edwards, and 6 percent Richardson. Clinton is the leading candidate today among liberals (33%) and others (37%), and men (31%) and women (37%). Liberals are less likely than others to support Clinton and more likely than others to support Obama and Edwards. Men are less likely than women to support Clinton. Democratic primary likely voters only “If the Democratic primary for president were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?” Likely Voters Ideology Liberal Other Male Gender Female Hillary Clinton 35% 33% 37% 31% 37% Barack Obama 20 22 18 19 20 Al Gore 19 19 18 22 17 John Edwards 9 11 7 7 10 Bill Richardson 33452 Other candidates* 6 6 5 8 5 Don't know 8 6 11 8 9 *For a complete list of candidates, see question 40a on p.33. Seventy-four percent of Democratic primary likely voters say they are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the presidential primary, while 21 percent are not satisfied. At this early stage, three in four Democratic primary likely voters say they are following news about candidates for the 2008 presidential election either very (21%) or fairly closely (54%) while one in four is following news not too or not at all closely. June 2007 23 Californians and Their Government 2008 PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (CONTINUED) On the Republican side, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (29%) enjoys a lead over other candidates among Republican primary likely voters. Senator John McCain (15%), former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (12%), and former Senator Fred Thompson (11%) are clustered together in a second tier, while former speaker of the House of Representatives, Newt Gingrich, has support from 6 percent. Fifteen percent would vote for other candidates, and 12 percent are undecided. At this point, neither Thompson nor Gingrich have declared their candidacies, although Fred Thompson has inched closer to running by recently forming a “testing the waters” committee. We thus asked a follow-up question of Gingrich supporters. If Gingrich’s supporters’ second choices are considered, the standings remain about the same (31% Giuliani, 16% McCain, 13% Romney, 13% Thompson). At the national level, Giuliani is also the front runner—with or without Gingrich in the race—according to the mid-June USA Today/Gallup poll, with Thompson and McCain nearly tied for second place. When California’s Republican primary likely voters were presented with a shorter list this past March that included Giuliani, McCain, Gingrich, and Romney, 33 percent supported Giuliani, 19 percent supported McCain, 14 percent Gingrich, and 7 percent Romney. Giuliani is the leading candidate today among conservatives (26%) and others (35%), and both men (27%) and women (31%). Conservatives are less likely than others to support Giuliani and more likely than others to support Romney and Thompson. After Giuliani, men are more likely than women to support McCain and Thompson, while women are more likely than men to support Romney. Republican primary likely voters only “If the Republican primary for president were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?” Likely Voters Ideology Conservative Other Male Gender Female Rudy Giuliani 29% 26% 35% 27% 31% John McCain 15 16 14 17 12 Mitt Romney 12 15 7 11 15 Fred Thompson 11 14 6 13 8 Newt Gingrich 67 5 5 8 Other candidates* 15 12 18 16 12 Don't know 12 10 15 11 14 *For a complete list of candidates, see question 40b on p.34. Fewer Republican primary likely voters (57%) than Democratic primary likely voters (74%) say they are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the presidential primary. Republican primary likely voters are as likely as Democratic primary likely voters to be following news about candidates for the 2008 presidential election, with three in four Republican primary likely voters saying they are following news very (22%) or fairly closely (50%), while one in four is following news not too or not at all closely. 24 PPIC Statewide Survey REGIONAL MAP 25 METHODOLOGY The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance in research and writing from Jennifer Paluch, project manager for this survey, survey research associates Dean Bonner and Sonja Petek, and survey intern Stephanie Stone. This survey was conducted with funding from The James Irvine Foundation and benefited from discussions with policy experts; however, the survey methods, questions, and content of this report were solely determined by Mark Baldassare. The findings in this report are based on a telephone survey of 2,003 California adult residents interviewed from June 12 to 19, 2007. Interviewing took place on weekday nights and weekend days, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All telephone exchanges in California were eligible. Telephone numbers in the survey sample were called up to six times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Each interview took an average of 18 minutes to complete and was conducted in English or Spanish. Accent on Languages translated the survey into Spanish with assistance from Renatta DeFever and Stephanie Stone. Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas, Inc. conducted the telephone interviewing. We used recent U.S. Census and state data to compare the demographic characteristics of the survey sample with characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to census and state figures. The survey data in this report were statistically weighted to account for any demographic differences. The sampling error for the total sample of 2,003 adults is +/- 2 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 2 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger: For the 1,451 registered voters, it is +/- 2.5 percent; for the 983 likely voters, it is +/- 3 percent; for the 431 Democratic presidential primary likely voters and the 334 Republican presidential primary likely voters, it is 5 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. We present results for four geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, and “Other Southern California” includes Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. Residents from other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters. Sample sizes for these less populated areas are not large enough to report separately. We present specific results for Latinos because they account for about 30 percent of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest growing voter groups. Sample sizes for African Americans and Asian Americans are not large enough for separate analysis. We compare the opinions of registered Democrats, Republicans, and independents (those who are registered as “decline to state”). We also include the responses of “likely voters”— those who are most likely to vote in the state’s elections based on past voting, current interest, and voting intentions. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey results to those in national surveys by ABC News/Washington Post, CBS News/New York Times, CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, Gallup, Kaiser Family Foundation, Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg, Pew Research Center, and USA Today/Gallup. 27 QUESTIONNAIRE AND RESULTS CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT June 12-19, 2007 2,003 California Adult Residents: English, Spanish MARGIN OF ERROR +/-2% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE 1. First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today? [code, don’t read] 25% immigration, illegal immigration 11 jobs, economy 8 health care, health costs 7 crime, gangs, drugs 7 education, schools 6 gasoline prices 5 environment, pollution 4 housing costs 3 state budget, deficit, taxes 3 traffic, transportation, infrastructure 14 other 7 don’t know 2. On another topic, some people can’t remember the names of state officeholders, while some people can remember them. Can you give me the name of the California governor? [code, don’t read] 93% Arnold Schwarzenegger 1 other 6 no/don’t know/unable to name 3. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California? 57% approve 31 disapprove 12 don’t know [rotate questions 4 and 5] 4. Can you give me the name of the speaker of the California State Assembly? [code, don’t read] 8% Fabian Núñez 3 other 89 no/don’t know/unable to name 5. Can you give me the name of the president pro tem of the California State Senate? [code, don’t read] 3% Don Perata 3 other 94 no/don’t know/unable to name 6. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job? 39% approve 40 disapprove 21 don’t know 7. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 44% right direction 46 wrong direction 10 don’t know 8. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 40% good times 49 bad times 11 don’t know 29 Californians and Their Government 9. Do you think that Governor Schwarzenegger and the state legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year or not? 49% yes, will be able to work together 40 no, will not be able to work together 11 don’t know 10.Changing topics, do you think the number of people without health insurance is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem in California today? 75% big problem 17 somewhat of a problem 6 not a problem 2 don’t know 11.How concerned are you personally about being able to afford necessary health care when a family member gets sick? 56% very concerned 15 somewhat concerned 13 not too concerned 15 not at all concerned 1 don’t know 12.Do you think California’s health care system is in need of major changes or minor changes or that it is basically fine the way it is? 72% major changes 17 minor changes 8 fine the way it is 3 don’t know 13.Would you favor or oppose a plan requiring all Californians to have health insurance, with costs shared by employers, health care providers, and individuals? 72% favor 22 oppose 6 don’t know [rotate questions 14 and 15] 14.Do you think the U.S. government should provide a national health insurance program for all Americans, even if this would require higher taxes? 66% yes 30 no 4 don’t know 15.Do you think the U.S. government should provide a national health insurance program for all children under the age of 18, even if this would require higher taxes? 73% yes 23 no 4 don’t know 16.Changing topics, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling his job as president of the United States? 28% approve 68 disapprove 4 don’t know [rotate questions 17 and 18] 17.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling the issue of immigration? 28% approve 63 disapprove 9 don’t know 18.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling the situation in Iraq? 21% approve 75 disapprove 4 don’t know 19.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is handling her job? 39% approve 31 disapprove 30 don’t know 30 PPIC Statewide Survey 20.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job? 33% approve 54 disapprove 13 don’t know 21.Do you think things in the United States are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 31% right direction 63 wrong direction 6 don’t know 22.Turning to economic conditions, do you think that during the next 12 months the United States will have good times financially or bad times? 39% good times 53 bad times 8 don’t know 23.Do you think that President Bush and the U.S. Congress will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year or not? 28% yes, will be able to work together 68 no, will not be able to work together 4 don’t know 24.Changing topics, in general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq? 3% very well 15 somewhat well 26 not too well 53 not at all well 3 don’t know 25.All in all, do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq or not? 25% yes, worth it 71 no, not worth it 4 don’t know Questionnaire and Results 26.As you may know, the U.S. is sending more than 20,000 additional troops to Iraq. From what you have heard or read, would you say this troop increase is making the situation in Iraq better, making it worse, or is it having no impact on the situation in Iraq so far? 18% better 40 worse 37 no impact 5 don’t know 27.Do you think the United States should or should not set a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq sometime in 2008? 69% should 27 should not 4 don’t know 28.On another topic, please indicate which statement comes closest to your own view —even if neither is exactly right: [rotate] [1] Immigrants today are a benefit to California because of their hard work and job skills [or] [2] Immigrants today are a burden to California because they use public services. 60% immigrants are a benefit to California 32 immigrants are a burden to California 8 don’t know 29.Next, do you think that immigration policy in the United States today is in need of major changes, minor changes, or is it basically fine the way it is? 74% major changes 18 minor changes 6 fine the way it is 2 don’t know June 2007 31 Californians and Their Government 30.If you had to choose, what do you think should happen to most illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the United States for at least two years? [rotate] [1] They should be given a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status [or] [2] They should be deported back to their native country. 74% chance to keep jobs 23 deported 3 don’t know 31.Would you favor or oppose a program allowing people from other countries to be guest workers in the U.S. for a temporary period of time and then be required to return to their home country? 63% favor 31 oppose 6 don’t know 32.When the U.S. government is deciding which immigrants to admit to this country, [rotate] [1] should priority be given to people who have family members already living in the U.S. [or] [2] should priority be given to people based on education, job skills and work experience? 49% education, job skills, work experience 35 family members already in U.S. 9 it depends (volunteered) 7 don’t know On another topic, [rotate questions 33 and 34] 33.Would you like to see the Supreme Court make it harder to get an abortion than it is now, make it easier to get an abortion than it is now, or leave the ability to get an abortion the same as it is now? 33% harder 14 easier 47 same 6 don’t know 34.In 1973, the Roe v. Wade decision established a woman’s constitutional right to an abortion, at least in the first three months of pregnancy. Would you like to see the Supreme Court completely overturn the Roe vs. Wade decision, or not? 30% yes, overturn Roe vs. Wade 65 no, not overturn Roe vs. Wade 5 don’t know 35.Changing topics, do you favor or oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to be legally married? 45% favor 49 oppose 6 don’t know Next, thinking about the issue of poverty, [rotate questions 36 and 37] 36.Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: It is the responsibility of government to take care of people who can’t take care of themselves. Do you completely agree, mostly agree, mostly disagree, or completely disagree with this statement? 25% completely agree 41 mostly agree 20 mostly disagree 11 completely disagree 3 don’t know 37.Please indicate which statement comes closest to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. [rotate] [1] Poor people have it easy because they can get government benefits without doing anything in return [or] [2] Poor people have hard lives because government benefits don’t go far enough to help them live decently. 29% poor people have it easy 59 poor people have hard lives 12 don’t know 32 PPIC Statewide Survey 38.Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote? 73% yes [ask q38a] 27 no [skip to q39f] 38a.Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or as an independent? 42% Democrat [ask q39a] 32 Republican [skip to q39b] 5 another party (specify) [skip to q41] 21 independent [skip to q39c] 39a.Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 51% strong 46 not very strong 3 don’t know [skip to q40a] 39b.Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 47% strong 50 not very strong 3 don’t know [skip to q40b] 39c.Would you join a political party if it was a good reflection of your political views or do you prefer to be unaffiliated with any specific party? 25% join a political party 71 remain unaffiliated 4 don’t know 39d.And were you previously registered with a major party or have you always been an independent? 38% previously registered [ask q39e] 60 always been an independent [skip to q39f] 2 don’t know [skip to q39f] Questionnaire and Results 39e.And what party were you previously registered with? [code, don’t read] 37% Republican Party 54 Democratic Party 1 Libertarian 1 American Independent 4 other (specify) 3 don’t know 39f.Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party? 22% Republican Party 46 Democratic Party 24 neither 8 don’t know 39g.California voters like yourself will be able to choose between voting in the Democratic primary or selecting a nonpartisan ballot on February 5th. Both ballots include state proposition measures. Do you plan to vote in the Democratic primary or on the nonpartisan ballot? 16% Democratic primary [ask q40a] 60 nonpartisan ballot [skip to q40c] 3 not planning to vote [skip to q40c] 21 don’t know [skip to q40c] [Responses recorded for questions 40a-40c are for likely voters only.] 40a.If the Democratic primary for president were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? [rotate names and then ask “or someone else”] 35% Hillary Clinton 20 Barack Obama 19 Al Gore 9 John Edwards 3 Bill Richardson 2 Dennis Kucinich 2 Joe Biden -- Chris Dodd -- Mike Gravel 2 someone else (specify) 8 don’t know June 2007 33 Californians and Their Government Without Gore (recalculated, based on second choice of Gore voters): 41% Hillary Clinton 25 Barack Obama 12 John Edwards 4 Bill Richardson 3 Joe Biden 2 Dennis Kucinich -- Chris Dodd -- Mike Gravel 2 someone else (specify) 11 don’t know [skip to q40c] 40b.If the Republican primary for president were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? [rotate names and then ask “or someone else”] 29% Rudy Giuliani 15 John McCain 12 Mitt Romney 11 Fred Thompson 6 Newt Gingrich 3 Duncan Hunter 3 Tom Tancredo 2 Ron Paul 1 Sam Brownback 1 Mike Huckabee -- Jim Gilmore -- Tommy Thompson 5 someone else (specify) 12 don’t know Without Gingrich (recalculated, based on second choice of Gingrich voters): 31% Rudy Giuliani 16 John McCain 13 Mitt Romney 13 Fred Thompson 3 Duncan Hunter 3 Tom Tancredo 2 Ron Paul 1 Sam Brownback 1 Mike Huckabee -- Jim Gilmore -- Tommy Thompson 5 someone else (specify) 12 don’t know 40c.In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with the choices of candidates in the presidential primary? 63% satisfied 31 not satisfied 6 don’t know 41.How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2008 presidential election? 14% very closely 41 fairly closely 30 not too closely 15 not at all closely 42.Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 9% very liberal 22 somewhat liberal 29 middle-of-the-road 25 somewhat conservative 12 very conservative 3 don’t know 34 PPIC Statewide Survey 43.Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics? 23% great deal 38 fair amount 30 only a little 8 none 1 don’t know 44.How often would you say you vote? 49% always 17 nearly always 10 part of the time 5 seldom 19 never 45.Changing topics, do you yourself ever use a computer at home, at work, or at school? If yes: Do you use a computer often or only sometimes? 59% yes, often [ask q46] 16 yes, sometimes [ask q46] 25 no [skip to q47] 46.Do you ever go online to access the Internet or worldwide web or send or receive email? If yes: Do you do this often or only sometimes? 54% yes, often 16 yes, sometimes 30 no/do not use a computer 47.Do you have any type of personal computer, including laptops, in your home? These do not include game machines. If yes: Do you use your home computer often, only sometimes, or never? 52% yes, often [ask q48] 14 yes, sometimes [ask q48] 6 yes, never use [ask q48] 28 no, do not have any computers at home [skip to d1] Questionnaire and Results 48.What kind of Internet connection do you have at home? Do you use a dial-up telephone line, or do you have some other type of connection, such as a DSL-enabled phone line, a cable modem, or a T-1 or fiber optic connection? 31% DSL-enabled phone line 18 cable modem 12 dial-up telephone line 2 T-1 or fiber optic connection 2 other (specify) 31 do not have Internet access/no computer at home 4 don’t know [d1-d5: demographic questions] d6. On another topic, are you, yourself, now covered by any form of health insurance or health plan? 78% yes [ask d6a] 20 no [skip to d6e] 2 don’t know d6a.Which type of insurance do you now have? Is it a plan through your or your spouse’s employer, a plan you purchased yourself, are you covered by Medicare or Medi-cal, some other government program, or do you get your health insurance from somewhere else? 60% private plan though your or your spouse’s employer 12 plan purchased yourself 11 Medi-care 7 Medi-cal 5 some other government program 3 somewhere else (specify) 2 don’t know June 2007 35 Californians and Their Government d6b.Overall, how do you feel about your current health insurance policy? 49% very satisfied 38 somewhat satisfied 7 not too satisfied 4 not at all satisfied 2 don’t know d6c.How worried are you about losing your health insurance coverage? 19% very worried 17 somewhat worried 23 not too worried 40 not at all worried 1 don’t know d6d.At any time in the past 12 months, have you or a family member been without health insurance? 18% yes 81 no 1 don’t know d6e.How worried are you about having to pay more for your health care or health insurance? 40% very worried 27 somewhat worried 16 not too worried 16 not at all worried 1 don’t know [d7-d11: demographic questions] 36 PPIC Statewide Survey PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ruben Barrales President and Chief Executive Officer San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce Angela Blackwell Founder and Chief Executive Officer PolicyLink Paul Brest President The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Mollyann Brodie Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director University of California Washington Center James E. Canales President The James Irvine Foundation Jon Cohen Director of Polling The Washington Post Matthew K. Fong Special Counsel Sheppard, Mullin, Richter & Hampton, LLP William Hauck President California Business Roundtable Russell Hancock President and CEO Joint Venture Silicon Valley Network Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Carol S. Larson President and Chief Executive Officer The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Monica Lozano Publisher and Chief Executive Officer La Opinión Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Dan Rosenheim News Director KPIX-TV Carol Stogsdill President Stogsdill Consulting Cathy Taylor Vice President and Editorial Commentary Director Orange County Register Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA BOARD OF DIRECTORS Thomas C. Sutton, Chair Retired Chairman & Chief Executive Officer Pacific Life Insurance Company Mark Baldassare President and Chief Executive Officer Public Policy Institute of California Linda Griego President and Chief Executive Officer Griego Enterprises, Inc. Edward K. Hamilton Chairman Hamilton, Rabinovitz & Alschuler, Inc. Gary K. Hart Former State Senator and Secretary of Education State of California Walter B. Hewlett Director Center for Computer Assisted Research in the Humanities Ki Suh Park Design and Managing Partner Gruen Associates Constance L. Rice Co-Director The Advancement Project Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center Copyright © 2007 by Public Policy Institute of California All rights reserved San Francisco, CA Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source and the above copyright notice is included. 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