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object(Timber\Post)#3742 (44) { ["ImageClass"]=> string(12) "Timber\Image" ["PostClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Post" ["TermClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Term" ["object_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["custom"]=> array(5) { ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(12) "S_306MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(7) "1511649" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(92281) "PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY M A R C H 2006 Public Policy Institute of California Californians and Their Government ○○○○○ Mark Baldassare Research Director & Survey Director The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) is a private operating foundation established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. The Institute is dedicated to improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. PPIC’s research agenda focuses on three program areas: population, economy, and governance and public finance. Studies within these programs are examining the underlying forces shaping California’s future, cutting across a wide range of public policy concerns, including education, health care, immigration, income distribution, welfare, urban growth, and state and local finance. PPIC was created because three concerned citizens – William R. Hewlett, Roger W. Heyns, and Arjay Miller – recognized the need for linking objective research to the realities of California public policy. Their goal was to help the state’s leaders better understand the intricacies and implications of contemporary issues and make informed public policy decisions when confronted with challenges in the future. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. David W. Lyon is founding President and Chief Executive Officer of PPIC. Thomas C. Sutton is Chair of the Board of Directors. Public Policy Institute of California 500 Washington Street, Suite 800 • San Francisco, California 94111 Telephone: (415) 291-4400 • Fax: (415) 291-4401 info@ppic.org • www.ppic.org Preface The PPIC Statewide Survey series provides policymakers, the media, and the general public with objective, advocacy-free information on the perceptions, opinions, and public policy preferences of California residents. Inaugurated in April 1998, the survey series has generated a database that includes the responses of more than 134,000 Californians. The current survey is the twentieth in our Californians and Their Government series, which is conducted periodically throughout the state’s election cycles with funding by the Public Policy Institute of California. The series examines the social, economic, and political trends that underlie public policy preferences and ballot choices. The current survey focuses on the 2006 elections. It examines voters’ preferences on June primary ballot issues, including the Democratic gubernatorial primary and two state propositions, as well as Californians’ attitudes toward the elected officials who now represent them in Sacramento and Washington. It looks at residents’ perceptions of the governor’s and legislature’s plans to improve the state’s infrastructure, and of other state and national issues, including disaster preparedness of California households, confidence in state and local government to respond to disasters, and public officials’ ethics. This report presents the responses of 2,002 adult residents throughout the state to issues that include: • The California 2006 elections, including likely voter preferences in the Democratic gubernatorial primary on June 6th, potential match-ups of major party gubernatorial candidates in November, the images voters hold of candidates in the gubernatorial race, voters’ attention to gubernatorial election news, and the importance that voters place on issues related to the gubernatorial election. The survey also presents measures of support for Proposition 81 (library bond) and 82 (public preschool initiative) on the June ballot, and voters’ attitudes related to support for these ballot measures. • State policies, including overall approval ratings of Governor Schwarzenegger and the state legislature, and ratings of Governor Schwarzenegger and the state legislature on their handling of the issue of transportation and infrastructure; support for the governor’s and legislature’s infrastructure plans; and voters’ perceptions of disaster management and preparedness. • National policies, including overall approval ratings of President Bush, the U.S. Congress, and the two U.S. senators from California; specific approval ratings of President Bush on ethics in government and disaster preparedness; attitudes toward the U.S. Congress in relationship to ethics and lobbying; perceptions of the major political parties; and confidence in government to handle major disasters. • The extent to which Californians may differ in their 2006 ballot choices and on state and national policies, by party affiliation, demographics, race/ethnicity, and region of residence. This is the 65th PPIC Statewide Survey in the series, which has included a number of special surveys on topics such as the environment, housing, land use, population growth, the state budget, the initiative process, and the future, and on regional issues in areas including the Central Valley, Los Angeles County, Orange County, and San Diego County. Copies of this report may be ordered by e-mail (order@ppic.org) or phone (415-291-4400). Copies of this and earlier reports are posted on the publications page of the PPIC web site (www.ppic.org). For questions about the survey, please contact survey@ppic.org. -i- - ii - Contents Preface Press Release California 2006 Election State Policies National Policies Survey Methodology Survey Questions and Results Survey Advisory Committee i v 1 7 13 19 21 26 - iii - Press Release Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: http://www.ppic.org/main/pressreleaseindex.asp OPPORTUNITY SQUANDERED, LEADERS TAKE A HIT; STALLED INFRASTRUCTURE PLANS WERE POPULAR WITH PUBLIC Faith In Bipartisanship Plunges; Legislature Biggest Public Opinion Loser; Angelides, Westly Race A Story Of “Undecideds” SAN FRANCISCO, California, March 30, 2006 — In a rare convergence of public opinion, Californians of all political persuasions and in all regions approved of the major infrastructure measures that state leaders recently proposed – but couldn’t work together to put on the June ballot – according to a survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC). In the aftermath, the legislature’s approval rating has dropped to its lowest level in over a year, and belief that Governor Schwarzenegger and lawmakers can work together in the future has tumbled. “It’s an unfortunate irony that state leaders were unable to reconcile their differences, while voters – who are often deeply split along partisan lines – were very much in agreement,” says PPIC Statewide Survey director Mark Baldassare. “This was an opportunity to give the public something it collectively wanted.” Californians overwhelmingly support (69%) Governor Schwarzenegger’s plan to restore and expand the state’s deteriorating infrastructure by spending $222 billion over 10 years – and public approval is as high today as it was when he announced the plan in January (68%). There is also strong majority support (59%) for the governor’s proposal to issue $70 billion in state bonds, as part of his larger infrastructure package. And approval for both plans crosses all party and regional lines. Residents also strongly favor the legislature’s infrastructure proposals: 60 percent favor the Democrats’ plan to issue $50 billion in bonds in 2006 and 2008 to fund a variety of public works; 65 percent support the Republicans’ plan for a pay-as-you-go system that would set aside 1 percent of the state’s annual revenue for ten years to pay for infrastructure. “Essentially, all of these competing plans that were headed for the June ballot were very popular,” says Baldassare. However, when comparing ways to fund infrastructure, more residents like the idea of paying for projects out of the general fund (32%) than by issuing bonds (25%), raising taxes (16%) or increasing user fees (13%). Fallout from the leaders’ failure to reach a compromise solution has been significant: The number of Californians who believe the governor and legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year has plunged to 30 percent – a 13 point drop since January, and is just as low among likely voters (31%). In fact, 57 percent of likely voters do not believe lawmakers and the governor can work together, up 6 points from January. Let the Blame Game Begin… Who takes the most blame for the infrastructure crash? Lawmakers, not the governor, seem to be bearing the brunt of residents’ displeasure: The legislature’s approval rating has dropped from an already dismal 29 percent in January, to 25 percent today – similar to its lowest point (24%) since PPIC first asked this question in 2000. Approval among likely voters is slightly lower (23%), and on infrastructure specifically, only 21 percent of likely voters like the job lawmakers are doing. Disapproval of the legislature is high across party lines (Democrats 55%, Independents 63%, Republicans 67%) and geographic regions (SF Bay Area, 56%; Central Valley, 58%; Los Angeles and Other Southern California, 61% each). -v- Press Release In contrast, although the governor’s job performance ratings remain low, they haven’t, apparently, been negatively affected by recent events – and they are notably higher than the legislature’s. The governor now has an overall approval rating of 37 percent; it was 35 percent in February. Among likely voters, his approval is nearing the halfway mark (47%). His own party is much happier with him than Democrats are: Nearly three-fourths (72%) of Republicans like the job he is doing, but very few Democrats (21%), and less than a majority of independents (40%), agree. On the issue of infrastructure, approval of the governor is only slightly lower among residents (36%) and likely voters (45%) than his overall rating. The governor’s ratings may be holding steady because of his personal appeal: 71 percent of likely voters say they like Schwarzenegger, even though a majority (53%) dislike his policies. This congenial personal view of the governor holds across party lines (Democrats 57%, Independents 70%, Republicans 86%) and among Latinos (61%). Less than one-quarter (24%) of likely voters dislike Schwarzenegger personally. Angelides, Westly In Dead Heat, Making Little Impression So Far In the wake of Schwarzenegger’s failure to get an infrastructure measure on the ballot, voters still support him over Democratic gubernatorial candidates Phil Angelides and Steve Westly. Among likely voters today, 41 percent say they would vote for Schwarzenegger over Angelides (29%) and 39 percent would vote for him over Westly (31%). There is a big undecided factor (30%) in both potential match-ups. Not surprisingly, there are vast partisan differences: Republicans prefer Schwarzenegger to Angelides (72% to 4%) or Westly (71% to 7%), and Democrats prefer Angelides (55% to 15%) and Westly (55% to 16%) to Schwarzenegger. Independents are divided between Westly and Schwarzenegger (29% to 26%), and favor Schwarzenegger over Angelides (32% to 24%). Both Democratic candidates do better with Latino voters (Angelides 42% to Schwarzenegger 26%, and Westly 42% to Schwarzenegger 24%.). The race between the two Democrats is in a statistical dead heat: Among likely Democratic primary voters, 22 percent would vote for Angelides, 23 percent for Westly, and a majority 55 percent don’t know. The undecided vote is by far the biggest factor in this race. When asked about the candidates’ political ideologies, most voters say they don’t know where Angelides (57%) or Westly (58%) fall on the liberal-conservative scale. Among likely Democratic primary voters, who presumably would be better informed about these candidates, the “don’t knows” are almost as high (Angelides 56%, Westly 55%). If the match-up remains tight, independents could be the wild card, says Baldassare. “If the race is close among Democratic voters, independents will become a very important part of the equation,” he says. “They may account for less than 10 percent of voters in the Democratic primary, but that may be enough to tip the scales.” At this point, most independent likely voters (57%) say they will choose a nonpartisan ballot, but 19 percent say they will vote in the Democratic primary, and 12 percent don’t know. Immigration Rises In Importance; Majority Support For Reiner-Backed Prop 82 What one issue do likely voters most want to hear about in the upcoming elections? Once again, education and public schools top the list (23%), a response similar to one when PPIC asked this question before the 2002 primary election (21%). In fact, only one issue has significantly changed in terms of voter interest since 2002 – immigration. Immigration, legal or illegal, has jumped 10 points (4% to 14%) and now holds the number two spot among the issues voters most want to hear candidates discuss. Among Republicans (22%), it is the number one issue. Voters also appear to be focused on Proposition 82 (on the June ballot), which would raise income tax on high-income residents to fund voluntary pre-school education for all four-year olds. About half (52%) support the measure, 41 percent oppose it, and only 7 percent say they don’t know. “This is a particularly low number of undecideds at this stage in this campaign,” says Baldassare. Voter resolve may be partly explained - vi - Press Release by the fact that most (66%) of those who support the proposition believe it is generally a good idea to link a specific tax to a specific service. Among the proposition’s opponents, a majority (56%) think such linkage is a bad idea. Bush Approval Hits Record Low; Low Marks In Ethics, Disaster Preparedness This month, President Bush’s approval ratings in California hit their lowest point since he first took office in 2001. Only 34 percent of adults and 38 percent of likely voters approve of the job he is doing. And Californians are only slightly less approving than adults nationwide (34% to 37%), according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll from mid-March. In California, on ethics in government and disaster preparedness, Bush fares as badly or worse (34% and 28% approval, respectively) than he does overall. With respect to disaster readiness, the federal government as a whole commands little confidence: A strong majority of Californians (58%) say they have little or no confidence that the U.S. government is ready to respond if a major natural disaster hits the state. More Key Findings • Under the Radar…(page 4) At this stage in the lead-up to the California governor’s election, nearly half (48%) of likely voters say they are not following news about the candidates very closely or at all. • Disaster’s Coming, But We’re Prepared (pages 11,12) Nearly three-fourths (73%) of Californians think their area will be hit with a major disaster in the next ten years; 81 percent say they know how to prepare, and 60 percent have a disaster supplies kit in their home. • Congressional Corruption…(page 16) Nearly four in ten Californians (39%) believe that most members of the U.S. Congress are corrupt. • … But Not In My Backyard (pages 14,15) Despite cynicism about ethics in Washington, likely voters approve of their own representatives (59%), Senator Dianne Feinstein (56%), and Senator Barbara Boxer (50%). About the Survey The purpose of the PPIC Statewide Survey is to develop an in-depth profile of the social, economic, and political forces affecting California elections and public policy preferences. Findings of this survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,002 California adult residents interviewed between March 15th and March 22nd, 2006. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The sampling error for the total sample is +/- 2%. The size and sampling error for subgroups is as follows: For the 1490 registered voters, the sampling error is +/- 2.5%; for the 1008 likely voters, it is +/- 3%; and for the 444 Democratic primary likely voters it is +/- 5%. For more information on methodology, see page 19. Mark Baldassare is research director at PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has directed since 1998. His recent book, A California State of Mind: The Conflicted Voter in a Changing World, is available at www.ppic.org. PPIC is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to improving public policy through objective, nonpartisan research on the economic, social, and political issues that affect Californians. The institute was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. This report will appear on PPIC’s website (www.ppic.org) on March 30. ### - vii - Democratic Gubernatorial Primary 22 55 23 Percent of Democratic primary likely voters Phil Angelides Steve Westly Other/ don't know Proposition 81—Library Bond 9 Percent likely voters Potential Governor Match-Ups 60 50 41 40 29 30 39 31 20 10 0 Arnold Phil Schw arzenegger Angelides Arnold Steve Schw arzenegger Westly Proposition 82—Preschool Initiative 7 50 41 41 52 Percent All Adults Percent likely voters Percent likely voters Yes No Don't know Percent Approval for Governor's 10 Year Infrastructure Plan 80 75 68 70 68 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Dems Reps Inds Percent likely voters Yes No Don't know Approval Ratings 80 70 60 50 38 40 30 20 10 0 President 47 Governor 50 Senator Boxer 56 Senator Feinstein California 2006 Elections Governor’s Race With the June 6 Democratic gubernatorial primary campaign in its early stages, State Treasurer Phil Angelides and State Controller Steve Westly are currently in a statistical tie. Among likely Democratic primary voters, which include both registered Democrats and registered independents who say they would choose to take a Democratic primary ballot, one in four would vote either for Angelides (22%) or for Westly (23%), if the Democratic gubernatorial primary were held today. Over half (55%) of all Democratic primary likely voters, including both men and women, say they are undecided or would choose others on the ballot. With only two major candidates vying to run against incumbent GOP Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in the fall election, the race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination appears to be close as the campaign season enters a more active phase. “If the Democratic primary for governor were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?” Phil Angelides Steve Westly Other/don't know Democratic Primary Likely Voters 22% 23 55 Gender Men Women 25% 19% 21 25 54 56 The primary rules allow for independents to select a party ballot or a nonpartisan ballot. Three in 10 independent or “decline to state” voters currently say they will choose a major party ballot, over half say they will select a nonpartisan ballot, and one in 10 are undecided. Since only two in 10 independents at this time say they will select a Democratic ballot, independents may account for less than 10 percent of all Democratic primary voters. Still, independent voters could be an important factor in a close race for the Democratic nomination. “Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or on the nonpartisan ballot?” Democratic primary Republican primary Nonpartisan ballot Don't know Independent Likely Voters 19% 12 7 12 Among all likely voters, Governor Schwarzenegger is currently leading in the 2006 governor’s race. At this early stage, he leads a hypothetical contest against Angelides (41% to 29%) and against Westly (39% to 31%), with about three in 10 voters undecided or opting for other candidates in either of these match-ups. “If these were the candidates in the November 2006 governor’s election would you vote for…” Arnold Schwarzenegger Phil Angelides Other/don't know Likely Voters 41% 29 30 Arnold Schwarzenegger Steve Westly Other/don't know Likely Voters 39% 31 30 -1- California 2006 Elections Schwarzenegger has stronger support among Republican likely voters than either Angelides or Westly has among Democratic likely voters. Independent likely voters are fairly divided between the Democratic challengers and the GOP governor, and many of them are undecided when asked about possible match-ups. Angelides and Westly are ahead of the GOP governor in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles, but Schwarzenegger leads the Democratic challengers in the Central Valley and the Other Southern California region. Latinos favor the Democratic candidates over Schwarzenegger, and whites favor the GOP governor over Angelides (45% to 26%) and Westly (45% to 27%). Men favor Schwarzenegger over both Angelides and Westly (43% to 27% each), and women are divided over Schwarzenegger and Westly (36% to 35%) but favor Schwarzenegger over Angelides (38% to 31%), while three in 10 men and women are undecided. “If these were the candidates in the November 2006 governor’s election would you vote for…” Likely Voters Only Arnold Schwarzenegger Phil Angelides Other/don't know Arnold Schwarzenegger Steve Westly Other/don’t know Dem 15% 55 30 16 55 29 Party Rep 72% 4 24 71 7 22 Ind 32% 24 44 26 29 45 Central Valley 43% 25 32 41 25 34 Region SF Bay Area 24% 46 30 24 47 29 Los Angeles 34% 32 34 35 35 30 Other Southern California 56% 16 28 54 19 27 Latinos 26% 42 32 24 42 34 Gubernatorial Candidates’ Images Governor Schwarzenegger’s political challenge in this election year stems more from his policies than from his personal style. As an indication of their conflicted views about the governor, 71 percent of likely voters say they like Schwarzenegger but 53 percent say they dislike his policies. Among the seven in 10 likely voters who say they like him, there is a division over his policies (38% like, 33% dislike). As for the 53 percent of likely voters who dislike the governor’s policies, more say they like him than dislike him (33% to 20%). Although likely voters across parties say they like the governor, only GOP voters also side with his policies, while majorities of Democrats and independents say they dislike his policies “Which of these statements is closest to your views about Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger…” Likely Voters Only I like Arnold Schwarzenegger and I like his policies I like Arnold Schwarzenegger but I dislike his policies I dislike Arnold Schwarzenegger but I like his policies I dislike Arnold Schwarzenegger and I dislike his policies Don't know Likely Voters 38% 33 4 20 5 Dem 18% 39 4 36 3 Party Rep 63% 23 4 5 5 Ind 31% 39 4 18 8 Latinos 23% 38 7 31 1 -2- California 2006 Elections For both of the Democratic gubernatorial candidates, a major challenge is a lack of political identity with the electorate. Among all likely voters, nearly six in 10 are not sure where either Angelides or Westly stands on the political spectrum. By contrast, nine in 10 likely voters say they know where Schwarzenegger stands in terms of his political ideology. More likely voters identify both Westly and Angelides as liberal rather than middle-of-the road and very few describe either one as conservative. “Do you consider each of these candidates for governor to be very liberal, somewhat liberal, middle-of-the-road, somewhat conservative, very conservative, or don’t you know enough to say?” Likely Voters Only Phil Angelides Arnold Schwarzenegger Steve Westly Very liberal 12% 3 8 Somewhat liberal 18% 11 17 Ideology Middle-of- Somewhat Very the-road conservative conservative 10% 2% 1% Don’t know 57% 28 35 13 10 13 3 1 58 Even among likely voters in the Democratic primary, Angelides and Westly are largely unknown in terms of their political ideology: Over half say they don’t know enough about either candidate to place him along the political spectrum (56% and 55%). Among the rest of likely Democratic primary voters, Angelides and Westly are similarly perceived as liberal (28% to 24%), middle of the road (13% to 17%), or conservative (3% to 4%). How does this breakdown compare with the profile of Democratic primary likely voters? Forty-nine percent say they are liberal, 36 percent say middle-of-the-road, and 15 percent are self-described conservatives. Democratic Primary Likely Voters Only Phil Angelides Steve Westly Very liberal 5% 5 Somewhat liberal 23% 19 Ideology Middle-of- Somewhat Very the-road conservative conservative 13% 2% 1% 17 3 1 Don’t know 56 55 In contrast to the general lack of knowledge about the Democratic candidates, the majority of likely voters in all party groups describe Schwarzenegger as either middle-of-the-road or somewhat conservative in his political orientation. Across party groups, relatively few Republicans, Democrats, or independents think of him as either liberal or as very conservative. As for the profile of all likely voters, 29 percent describe themselves as liberal, 33 percent as middle-of-the-road, 24 percent as somewhat conservative, and 13 percent as very conservative. Among all likely voters, 65 percent of independents, 66 percent of Republicans, and 46 percent of Democrats call themselves middle-of-the-road or somewhat conservative. “How about Arnold Schwarzenegger… very liberal, somewhat liberal, middle-of-the road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative, or don't you know enough to say?” Likely Voters Only Party Democrat Republican Independent Very liberal 3% 3 5 Somewhat liberal 9% 13 11 Ideology Middle-ofthe-road Somewhat conservative 22% 34% 33 38 30 30 Very conservative 19% 7 11 Don't know 13% 6 13 - 3 - March 2006 California 2006 Elections Voters’ Interest As California heads into the 2006 governor’s election, likely voters place education (23%) at the top of the list of issues they would most like candidates to talk about. This issue is followed by immigration (14%), jobs and the economy (11%), and state budget and taxes (10%). Only 6 percent name infrastructure as the single most important issue, although another 3 percent mention transportation and traffic congestion. Health care and costs are identified as the top issue by 4 percent of likely voters. Voters’ interests today are similar to their interests in our pre-primary survey four years ago: In February 2002, 21 percent mentioned education, 12 percent named the economy, and 11 percent named the state budget and taxes as the top issue. At that time immigration was named by 4 percent of likely voters. Today, Democrats (32%) and independents (23%) are more likely than Republicans (13%) to name education as the top issue. Republicans place more emphasis on immigration (22%) and the state budget and taxes (14%) than either Democrats or independents. Voters in Los Angeles and the Other Southern California region are more likely than those in other regions to mention immigration. Concerns about the economy are lower in the Central Valley than elsewhere. Latinos are more likely than whites to mention education (28% to 21%), although this issue tops the list for both groups. “Californians will go to the polls to elect a governor in 2006. Which one issue would you like to hear the candidates talk about this year?” Likely Voters Only Education, public schools Immigration, legal or illegal Jobs, the economy State budget, taxes Infrastructure Health care and costs Transportation, traffic Likely Voters 23% 14 11 10 6 4 3 Dem 32% 7 12 6 6 5 3 Party Rep 13% 22 12 14 5 2 4 Ind 23% 13 11 9 6 4 4 Is the election generating much interest yet? About half of likely voters say they are currently following the news about the governor’s election very (13%) or fairly closely (39%). Nearly half or more in all parties and demographic groups are very or fairly closely following the news. Voters’ close attention to election news today (52%) is slightly lower than it was in our February 2002 survey (56%). The 2002 state primary generated a 35 percent turnout of registered voters. “How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2006 governor's election—very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely?” Likely Voters Only Very closely Fairly closely Not too closely Not at all closely Likely Voters 13% 39 34 14 Dem 12% 40 35 13 Party Rep 13% 38 35 14 Ind 14% 42 29 15 -4- California 2006 Elections Proposition 81: Public Library Bond Proposition 81, a $600 million state bond measure placed on the ballot by the California Legislature, would fund the construction and renovation of public libraries in California. The public library bond is one of two state propositions on the June primary ballot. When likely voters are read the text of the measure that will appear on the ballot, 50 percent say they would vote yes if the election were held today, while 41 percent would vote no and 9 percent are undecided. There is a partisan divide over this measure. Proposition 81 is strongly favored among Democrats, with 62 percent supporting it and three in 10 opposed. The measure also leads, though by a narrower margin, among independent voters, with 51 percent in favor and 42 percent opposed. However, a majority of Republicans (53%) are opposed, with 38 percent are in favor. By region, the bond measure draws the strongest support in the San Francisco Bay Area (59%), followed by Los Angeles (51%), while it falls below a majority in the Central Valley (46%) and the Other Southern California region (42%). Support for Proposition 81 is slightly higher among Latinos (56%) than among whites (49%) and is similar among those with and without children in the home. Support for Proposition 81 rises with level of education. “Proposition 81 is called the California Reading and Literacy Improvement and Public Library Construction and Renovation Bond Act of 2006…. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 81?”* Likely Voters Only Yes No Don’t know Likely Voters 50% 41 9 Party Dem 62% 30 8 Rep 38% 53 9 Ind 51% 42 7 Central Valley 46% 48 6 Region SF Bay Area 59% 34 7 Los Angeles 51% 39 10 Other Southern California 42% 47 11 What about current library funding? Half of likely voters believe the current level of state funding for local public libraries is not enough, one in three say the funding is just right, and 8 percent think it’s more than enough. Of those planning to vote yes on the bond measure, seven in 10 think the current funding levels are inadequate; of those opposed to the bond, two in three think libraries already receive just enough (50%) or more than enough (16%) funding. Democrats (60%) are more inclined than Republicans (33%) or independents (51%) to think that library funding is inadequate. Latinos (52%) are more likely than whites (47%) to hold this view, and this perception also tends to increase with level of education. “Do you think that the current level of state funding for your local public libraries is more than enough, just enough, or not enough?” Likely Voters Only More than enough Just enough Not enough Don't know Likely Voters 8% 32 48 12 Prop. 81 Yes No 3% 16% 18 50 69 23 10 11 * For complete question wording, see question 18 in the survey questionnaire, page 22. -5- March 2006 California 2006 Elections Proposition 82: Public Preschool Education Tax Initiative The other measure on the June ballot, Proposition 82, would raise the income tax on high-income residents to fund voluntary, free preschool education for all four-year-olds in California. After hearing the text that will appear on the June ballot, 52 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes on Proposition 82 if the election were held today, while 41 percent would vote no. Again, this measure reveals a partisan divide: Democrats (67%) and independents (57%) are strongly in favor of it, while a solid majority of Republicans (59%) are opposed. Residents in the San Francisco Bay Area are more likely than residents in other regions of the state to favor Proposition 82. Support is considerably higher among Latinos than whites (62% to 49%) and among younger voters, and increases with level of education. “Proposition 82 is called the Public Preschool Education Tax Increase on Incomes Over $400,000 for Individuals; $800,000 for Couples Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.... If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 82?”* Likely Voters Only Yes No Don’t know Likely Voters 52% 41 7 Party Dem 67% 26 7 Rep 35% 59 6 Ind 57% 37 6 Central Valley 50% 45 5 Region SF Bay Area 59% 33 8 Los Angeles 50% 40 10 Other Southern California 47% 47 6 About half of likely voters (51%) approve of tying a specific tax to a specific service—the concept of earmarking found in Proposition 82—while 37 percent are opposed. More independents (57%) and Democrats (54%) than Republicans (49%) say earmarking is a good idea. Among Proposition 82 supporters, 66 percent are in favor of earmarking. Among those opposed to the measure, a majority (56%) say that it is a bad idea to tie a specific tax to a specific service. “Generally speaking do you think it is a good idea or a bad idea to have a specific tax directly tied to a specific service?” Likely Voters Only Good idea Bad idea Don't know Likely Voters 51% 37 12 Prop. 82 Yes No 66% 24 36% 56 10 8 Regardless of their position on Proposition 82, eight in 10 likely voters think that attending preschool is very (58%) or somewhat important (24%) to a student’s success in kindergarten to 12th grade. The perception of the high value of preschool education is more strongly held among Democrats (69% very important) and independents (57% very important) than Republicans (46% very important). Among those who would vote yes on Proposition 82, 78 percent believe that attending preschool is very important to later school success. As for those who would vote no on Proposition 82, 32 percent say that attending preschool is very important to later school success while another 34 percent say it is somewhat important. * For complete question wording, see question 20 in the survey questionnaire, page 23. -6- State Policies Governor’s Approval Ratings The majority of Californians continue to have a negative view of the way Governor Schwarzenegger is handling his job (52% disapprove, 37% approve). His approval rating among all adults was at 33 percent in October before November’s special election, and then increased to 40 percent in January. His approval dropped somewhat in February (35%) and is similar today (37%). His approval rating now is in range of a year ago (40%, April 2005) and significantly lower than two years ago (55%, February 2004). Today, Republicans (72%) overwhelmingly approve of the way Governor Schwarzenegger is handling his job while Democrats (70%) overwhelmingly disapprove. Independents are more divided but fall on the negative side (40% approve, 48% disapprove). Likely voters are divided in their assessment of his job performance (47% approve; 45% disapprove). Across regions, about six in 10 adults in Los Angeles (63%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (61%) disapprove, while close to half of residents in the Other Southern California region (49%) and the Central Valley (44%) approve of the governor’s job performance. Men are more likely than women (42% to 32%) and whites are more likely than Latinos (48% to 17%) to approve of the governor, and his approval increases with age, education, and income. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 37% 52 11 Party Dem 21% 70 9 Rep 72% 20 8 Ind 40% 48 12 Central Valley 44% 46 10 Region SF Bay Area 26% 61 13 Los Angeles 27% 63 10 Other Southern California 49% 41 10 Likely Voters 47% 45 8 When asked about his handling of transportation and other infrastructure projects, the governor’s approval ratings (36% all adults, 45% likely voters) are similar to his overall approval ratings. Although the governor has focused his efforts this year on the issue of rebuilding California through a variety of infrastructure projects, not all Californians are sure about his plans or whether they approve of them— nearly one in four adults and one in five likely voters says they don’t know about his performance in this area. Across regions, the governor receives the highest approval numbers in the Other Southern California area. His approval among Republican voters is lower on this specific issue (62%) than on his overall job performance (72%), while Democrats view him less negatively on this issue (52%) than on his overall job performance (70%). Fewer than half in all demographic categories approve of the governor on the issue of transportation and infrastructure projects, and approval increases with age, education, and income. “Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Schwarzenegger is handling the issue of transportation and other infrastructure projects?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 36% 40 24 Party Dem 27% 52 21 Rep 62% 16 22 Ind 37% 36 27 Central Valley 35% 39 26 Region SF Bay Area 29% 46 25 Los Angeles 30% 48 22 Other Southern California 45% 31 24 Likely Voters 45% 34 21 -7- State Policies Governor’s Infrastructure Plan After the defeat of all four of his ballot initiatives in last November’s special election, Governor Schwarzenegger dedicated himself in 2006 to the issue of rebuilding California’s aging infrastructure. He announced a plan in January to spend $222 billion over 10 years on transportation, educational facilities, water and flood control, jails and prisons, and courts. Although the governor and many of the state’s legislators had hoped to present voters with an initial bond proposal on the June primary ballot, they were unable to reach a compromise solution before the deadline. Nevertheless, Californians are overwhelmingly in support of the governor’s plans for the future—nearly seven in ten adults and likely voters approve of his $222 billion proposal for infrastructure. Solid majorities across parties, regions, and demographic groups voice approval for it. Approval of his plan remains constant since he first announced it in January (68%). “Do you approve or disapprove of the governor’s plan to spend $222 billion over 10 years on infrastructure projects including surface transportation, education facilities, air quality, water and flood control, jails and prisons, and courts?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 69% 22 9 Party Dem 68% 23 9 Rep 75% 18 7 Ind 68% 26 6 Central Valley 71% 22 7 Region SF Bay Area 66% 25 9 Los Angeles 68% 24 8 Other Southern California 72% 20 8 Likely Voters 71% 21 8 Although there may be some general agreement between the governor and state legislators about the need to spend more on infrastructure, consensus breaks down over issues of how much money should be spent, for what purposes, and where the money will come from. In our survey, we asked about the governor’s plan to issue about $70 billion in state bonds for public works from 2006 to 2014 as part of the overall infrastructure package. Six in ten adults (59%) and 54 percent of likely voters say they favor the governor’s plan. Majorities across parties, regions, and political ideologies (i.e. self-identified liberals, moderates, conservatives) approve of issuing $70 billion in state bonds. Although more than half in all demographic groups approve of his plan, support declines with age and education, and is higher among Latinos (70%) than whites (56%). Whether or not they approve of the governor’s overall job performance, majorities approve of his bond proposal. Of those who approve of his 10-year, $222 billion infrastructure plan, seven in 10 (71%) also approve of the $70 billion bond proposal. “Do you favor or oppose the governor’s plan to issue about $70 billion in new state bonds from 2006 to 2014 to fund flood protection, transportation, schools and universities, prisons and public safety projects?” Favor Oppose Don't know All Adults 59% 31 10 Party Dem 54% 35 11 Rep 59% 32 9 Ind 53% 37 10 Central Valley 61% 30 9 Region SF Bay Area 52% 33 15 Los Angeles 62% 28 10 Other Southern California 60% 31 9 Likely Voters 54% 35 11 -8- State Policies Legislature’s Approval Ratings The state legislature fares significantly worse than the governor in the ratings of Californians—only 25 percent of all adults and 23 percent of likely voters approve of the way the legislature is handling its job. Overall approval among adults is down from January of this year (29%) and it has hovered around 30 percent or less for more than a year. The PPIC Survey has measured job approval of the California Legislature since September 2000; the current approval rating rivals its low point of 24 percent in December 2005 and is 33 points below the record high of 58 percent in January 2001. Today, fewer than 30 percent across parties, regions, and demographic groups approve of the way the legislature is handling its job. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 25% 59 16 Party Dem 28% 55 17 Rep 23% 67 10 Ind 25% 63 12 Central Valley 28% 58 14 Region SF Bay Area 26% 56 18 Los Angeles 21% 61 18 Other Southern California 24% 61 15 Likely Voters 23% 65 12 Californians are also more negative in their ratings of the legislature than of the governor on the issue of transportation and other infrastructure projects. One in four adults (23%) and 21 percent of likely voters approve of the legislature on this issue. Approval is similarly low across parties and all demographic groups, with fewer than 30 percent approving. As is the case with the governor, many Californians (23% adults; 21% likely voters) are unsure about the legislature’s performance on this issue. In the wake of the failed attempt earlier this month to place an infrastructure bond on the June ballot, only three in ten adults (30%) and likely voters (31%) think their state elected officials will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year. Nearly six in ten adults (58%) and likely voters (57%) do not think the governor and state legislature will be able to work together. Republicans (39% yes, 49% no) are more likely than Democrats (27% yes, 63% no) and independents (30% yes, 58% no) to express optimism. Across regions, residents in the San Francisco Bay Area are the most pessimistic (24% yes, 64% no) while those in the Other Southern California region are the least pessimistic (35% yes, 53% no). Most of those who disapprove of the legislature’s (67%) and governor’s (75%) job performance do not believe the governor and legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot. Optimism about the ability of the governor and legislature to work together has dropped since January, when 43 percent said they would be able to work together and accomplish a lot and 48 percent said they would not. “Do you think that Governor Schwarzenegger and the state legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year, or not?” Yes No Don't know All Adults 30% 58 12 Party Dem 27% 63 10 Rep 39% 49 12 Ind 30% 58 12 Central Valley 32% 56 12 Region SF Bay Area 24% 64 12 Los Angeles 30% 60 10 Other Southern California 35% 53 12 Likely Voters 31% 57 12 - 9 - March 2006 State Policies Legislature’s Infrastructure Plans The legislature also attempted to craft legislation this year that would address the state’s infrastructure needs through borrowing and other funding mechanisms. While the parties in the two legislative houses did not succeed in these efforts, the proposals they put forward all received significant support from Californians. Democrats in the legislature had a proposal to issue $50 billion in new state bonds in 2006 and 2008 to fund flood protection, transportation, schools and universities, affordable housing, and parks. Sixty percent of Californians say they favor this proposal, while 30 percent oppose it. Among likely voters, 52 percent are in favor and 38 percent are opposed. Support is highest among Democrats (65%) and independents (58%), while Republicans are divided on this plan (43% favor, 47% oppose). Although there is solid majority support across the state’s regions, Latinos (76%) are more likely than whites (53%) to favor this proposal, and support declines with age, education, and income. Another proposal offered by Democrats in the legislature called for about $23 billion in state bonds in 2006 and 2008 for flood protection, schools, and universities. This legislative plan had the support of a majority of adults (54% favor, 33% oppose) while likely voters are divided (46% favor, 40% oppose). Republicans in the legislature proposed an infrastructure plan using a pay-as-you-go approach that would earmark one percent of state general fund revenues annually over the next 10 years to fund roads, university construction, and water projects. Two in three Californians (65%) and likely voters (64%) favor this proposal while about one in four in each of these groups opposes this particular plan. Support for this proposal is high across all of the state’s regions and party groups. Support among Latinos (71%) is somewhat higher than among whites (64%), and favor for this funding proposal decreases somewhat with age, education and income. What is the preferred method of payment for the state’s infrastructure projects? Californians are divided on this issue, with 32 percent of Californians saying they favor paying on a yearly basis out of the state’s existing general fund, while 25 percent would prefer to issue state bonds. Fewer favor a state sales tax hike (16%) or increasing user fees (13%) for new funding. Support for the pay-as-you-go approach is only slightly higher among Republicans (35%) and independents (34%) than Democrats (29%), while support for a state sales tax increase is only slightly higher among Democrats (18%) than Republicans (15%) and independents (13%). As for funding infrastructure projects through issuing new state bonds, one in four in all regions supports this idea; across parties, Democrats (27%) are only slightly more likely than Republicans (23%) and independents (24%) to prefer this funding method. “Do you you favor or oppose each proposal?” Party How about the plan proposed by some legislators… All Adults Dem Rep to issue about $50 billion in new state bonds in 2006 and 2008 to fund flood protection, transportation, schools and universities, affordable housing and parks? Favor Oppose Don't know 60% 30 10 65% 25 10 43% 47 10 for a pay-as-you go approach that Favor 65 66 60 would earmark one percent of state revenues annually over the next 10 Oppose 25 25 30 years to fund roads, university construction and water projects? Don't know 10 9 10 Region SF Other Central Bay Los Southern Likely Ind Valley Area Angeles California Voters 58% 32 61% 31 64% 24 61% 29 56% 35 52% 38 10 8 12 10 9 10 67 64 64 64 67 64 24 26 24 27 24 27 9 10 12 9 99 - 10 - State Policies Disaster Perceptions With 2006 marking the 100-year anniversary of the massive earthquake that shook San Francisco, and with Hurricane Katrina last summer as a recent backdrop, three in four Californians think it is very (32%) or somewhat (41%) likely that their part of California will experience a disaster, such as a major earthquake, in the next 10 years. Just one in four adults says that a disaster in their region is not too likely (18%) or not at all likely (6%). Residents in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles areas are more apt than those living in other regions to say a disaster is very likely. Latinos are slightly more likely than whites (36% to 29%) and women are slightly more inclined than men (34% to 29%) to think it is very likely that their part of the state will experience a disaster such as a major earthquake. “How likely do you think it is that your part of California will experience a disaster, such as a major earthquake, in the next 10 years? Would you say very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?” Very likely Somewhat likely Not too likely Not at all likely Don't know All Adults 32% 41 18 6 3 Central Valley 20% 30 34 15 1 Region SF Bay Area 34% 46 14 2 4 Los Angeles 38% 42 10 3 7 Other Southern California 31% 42 18 4 5 Latinos 36% 38 14 6 6 When respondents were asked how worried they are that they or a member of their household will experience personal injury, property damage, or a major disruption of their routine if there is a disaster such as a major earthquake, nearly six in 10 Californians are either very worried (20%) or somewhat worried (37%). Four in 10 adults reports being not too worried (30%) or not at all worried (12%) that a disaster will affect them. Across the state’s regions, the percent who are very worried is highest among Los Angeles residents (26%). Latinos (43%) are far more likely than whites (9%) to be very worried, while homeowners (13%) are much less likely to be very worried than those who rent their homes (33%). Concern about being affected by a disaster decreases with age, education and income. “How worried are you that you and the members of your household will experience personal injury, property damage or a major disruption of your routine if there is a disaster, such as a major earthquake? Would you say very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not at all worried?” Very worried Somewhat worried Not too worried Not at all worried Don’t know All Adults 20% 37 30 12 1 Central Valley 19% 31 33 16 1 Region SF Bay Area 17% 40 29 12 2 Los Angeles 26% 39 24 9 2 Other Southern California 18% 37 32 12 1 Latinos 43% 34 15 7 1 - 11 - March 2006 State Policies Disaster Preparedness When asked how much they how know about steps they can take to prepare for a disaster, such as a major earthquake, only three in 10 Californians (29%) say they are very knowledgeable, while just over half claim to be only somewhat knowledgeable (52%). Fewer than one in five residents admits to being not too (11%) or not at all (6%) knowledgeable about this subject. Knowledge about disaster preparedness is somewhat higher among residents of the San Francisco Bay Area, the Other Southern California and Los Angeles regions than among residents of the Central Valley. Whites (35%) are more likely than Latinos (17%) to say they are very knowledgeable about how to prepare for a disaster. Knowledge also increases with age, education, homeownership and income. “How knowledgeable would you say you are about steps you can take to prepare for a disaster, such as a major earthquake? Would you say you are very knowledgeable, somewhat knowledgeable, not too knowledgeable or not at all knowledgeable?” Region All Adults Central Valley SF Bay Area Los Angeles Other Southern California Latinos Very knowledgeable 29% 23% 30% 28% 30% 17% Somewhat knowledgeable 52 55 55 50 54 49 Not too knowledgeable 11 11 10 12 11 18 Not at all knowledgeable 6 10 4 8 5 14 Don’t know 21 1 2 02 Disaster preparedness is an important factor in surviving a disaster such as a flood or earthquake. Today, six in 10 Californians say they have a disaster supplies kit while four in 10 do not have one. Residents of the Other Southern California region and Los Angeles are more likely than others to have a disaster supplies kit. Whites (63%) are more likely than Latinos (55%) to have one, and the percentage of adults having a disaster supplies kit increases with age, education, homeownership and income. Having a definite plan for the household is another important element in disaster preparedness. Today, over half of Californians say they do not have a definite disaster plan. Residents in the Other Southern California region (54%) are more likely than others to have a definite plan. Whites (51%) are more likely than Latinos (37%) to have a definite disaster plan for their household. The proportion of Californians having a definite disaster plan increases with age, education, homeownership and income. Does your household have a disaster supplies kit equipped with food, water, and other essential supplies? Does your household have a definite disaster plan in case of an earthquake, flood, or other disaster? Yes No Yes No Not a definite plan (volunteered) All Adults 60% Central Valley 52% 40 48 47 41 48 55 54 Region SF Bay Area 58% Los Angeles 61% Other Southern California 64% Latinos 55% 42 39 36 45 44 45 54 37 50 51 42 60 64 4 3 - 12 - National Policies President’s Approval Ratings President Bush’s overall job approval rating in California is now at its lowest point since he took office in 2001. Only 34 percent of adults and 38 percent of likely voters approve of the way he is handling his job as president. This marks a four-point drop from our January survey, and a 46-point drop from the high point of his approval in November 2001. Californians are less approving than Americans overall: According to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll in mid-March, 37 percent of U.S. adults approved of Bush’s overall job performance. There are strong partisan and regional differences—Democrats (83%) and independents (69%) overwhelmingly disapprove of Bush, while two in three Republicans (68%) approve of the job he is doing. Larger majorities in the San Francisco Bay Area (76%) and Los Angeles (66%) than in the Central Valley (56%) and Other Southern California region (51%) disapprove of the president. While a majority of adults in all demographic groups disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job, whites are somewhat more favorable than Latinos (38% to 29%). Californians give the president similar ratings when asked about the way he is handling ethics in government, with 34 percent of adults and 39 percent of likely voters saying they approve of the way he handles this issue. Adults nationwide are more favorable toward his performance in this area: An ABC/Washington Post poll in January found that 42 percent of U.S. adults approved of the president’s handling of ethical issues and 56 percent disapproved. Strong majorities of Democrats (82%) and independents (65%) disapprove of Bush’s handling of ethics in government, while two in three Republicans approve of his performance; and, once again, residents of the Other Southern California region are more favorable than other Californians with respect to the president’s performance. As for disaster preparedness, Californians offer an even less favorable opinion of Bush’s performance, with only 28 percent of adults and 29 percent of likely voters saying they approve. There are no national comparisons on this issue. An overwhelming majority of Democrats (85%) and independents (77%) disapprove of the way Bush is handling disaster preparedness; and even among Republicans, approval ratings fall to 55 percent. Majorities in all regions disapprove of his performance. Approval ratings on this issue are similar among Latinos (27%) than whites (30%). More than six in 10 in all demographic groups disapprove of the president’s performance on disaster preparedness. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling…” his job as president of the United States? Approve Disapprove Don't know ethics in government? Approve Disapprove Don't know disaster preparedness? Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 34% 62 4 34 59 7 28 65 7 Party Dem 14% 83 3 15 82 3 12 85 3 Rep 68% 30 2 68 25 7 55 37 8 Region Other Central SF Bay Los Southern Likely Ind Valley Area Angeles California Voters 27% 39% 20% 30% 45% 38% 69 56 76 66 51 59 45 4 4 43 28 39 19 31 44 39 65 53 74 62 48 57 78 7 7 84 19 33 16 26 37 29 77 60 78 68 56 65 47 6 6 76 - 13 - National Policies Ratings of California’s U.S. Senators Half of California adults approve of the job being done by Senator Dianne Feinstein, who is seeking reelection this November. Senator Feinstein’s approval ratings are unchanged since October 2005, when we last asked this question. Likely voters give her an even higher approval rating, with 56 percent saying they approve and 34 percent saying they disapprove of how she is handling her job. There are partisan and regional differences in ratings of the Democratic U.S. Senator: A majority of Democrats (72%) and independents (56%) approve, while half of Republicans (53%) disapprove of her performance. Senator Feinstein has higher approval ratings in the San Francisco Bay Area (62%) and Los Angeles (52%) than in the Central Valley (47%) and Other Southern California region (45%). Half of Californians who think the state is going in the right direction approve of the way Senator Dianne Feinstein is handling her job. However, so do half of those who say the state is heading in the wrong direction. Approval of Senator Feinstein’s job performance increases with age, income, and education. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Dianne Feinstein is handling her job as U.S. Senator?” Approve Disapprove Don't know Party All Adults 51% 28 21 Dem 72% 15 13 Rep 35% 53 12 Central Ind Valley 56% 47% 27 32 17 21 Region SF Bay Los Area Angeles Other Southern California 62% 52% 45% 22 24 32 16 24 23 Likely Voters 56% 34 10 Ratings of Senator Barbara Boxer among all adults are similar to Senator Feinstein’s. Forty-eight percent approve of the way Senator Boxer is handling her job; 30 percent disapprove. Senator Boxer has a 50 percent approval rating among likely voters, while 38 percent say they disapprove. Her approval rating remains unchanged since October 2005 (48% all adults, 50% likely voters). There are strong partisan differences in ratings of the Democratic U.S. Senator: Seven in 10 Democrats approve but more than six in 10 Republicans disapprove of Senator Boxer’s job performance. Residents of the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles are more likely to express approval than those in the Central Valley and Other Southern California region. Approval of Senator Boxer increases with education, and women (51%) are somewhat more likely than men (45%) to approve of her performance in office. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barbara Boxer is handling her job as U.S. Senator?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 48% 30 22 Party Dem 74% 11 15 Rep 23% 62 15 Ind 51% 28 21 Central Valley 46% 31 23 Region SF Bay Area 58% 24 18 Los Angeles 50% 25 25 Other Southern California 40% 36 24 Likely Voters 50% 38 12 - 14 - National Policies Ratings of California’s Congressional Representatives and of Congress Overall Asked about their own representatives in Congress, 52 percent of adults and 59 percent of likely voters say they approve of the way their congressional representative is handling his or her job. These findings are similar to those in our October 2005 survey, when 53 percent of residents and 57 percent of likely voters approved of their representative’s performance. However, Californians are less likely than adults nationwide (64%) to approve of their own representative’s performance, according to an ABC/Washington Post poll in January. Although nearly half or more residents across regions and party groups say they approve of their congressional representative, Democrats (60%) are more likely than Republicans (55%) and independents (50%) to register approval. Approval also increases with age and income. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that your own representative to the U.S. House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 52% 24 24 Party Dem 60% 20 20 Rep 55% 26 19 Ind 50% 28 22 Central Valley 50% 23 27 Region SF Bay Area 58% 21 21 Los Angeles 50% 24 26 Other Southern California 50% 25 25 Likely Voters 59% 25 16 While Californians may be satisfied with the job performance of their own congressional representative, a majority of residents (54%) and an even greater percentage of likely voters (62%) disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job. Disapproval of Congress has risen since our October 2005 survey, when 46 percent of all adults and 55 percent of likely voters disapproved of Congress’s performance. Californians’ disapproval ratings of Congress today are similar to those of Americans as a whole (54%), as reported in a nationwide CBS News poll in March. Half or more of California adults in all major regions say they disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job. Although a majority in all party groups disapprove of Congress, Democrats (64%) and independents (62%) are more disapproving than Republicans (53%). Whites are far more likely than Latinos to disapprove of Congress (60% to 41%), and disapproval increases with income, age, and education. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 35% 54 11 Party Dem 28% 64 8 Rep 40% 53 7 Central Ind Valley 31% 37% 62 50 7 13 Region SF Bay Area 28% 63 9 Los Angeles 36% 53 11 Other Southern California 39% 52 9 Likely Voters 31% 62 7 - 15 - March 2006 National Policies Ethics and Lobbying While approval ratings for Congress as a whole are low, about half of Californians, and 56 percent of likely voters, say most members of Congress are not corrupt. Across party groups, Republicans (63%) are more likely than Democrats (52%) to hold this view, and independents are divided (48% corrupt, 44% not corrupt). Men (53%) are somewhat more likely than women (47%) to say that most members are not corrupt, and belief in the integrity of Congress also increases with age, education, and income. “Would you say that most members of Congress are corrupt or not corrupt?” Corrupt Not corrupt Don't know All Adults 39% 50 11 Dem 39% 52 9 Party Rep 29% 63 8 Ind 48% 44 8 Likely Voters 36% 56 8 When asked if bribery and corruption are more common now or no different than in the past, 59 percent of all adults and 62 percent of likely voters say there is no difference, while about one in three says they are now more common (34% adults, 33% likely voters). A February Pew Research Center survey found a similar 60 percent of Americans nationwide saying there is no difference and 36 percent saying corruption is more common now. Democrats (38%) are more likely than Republicans (27%) and independents (34%) to say corruption is more common now. However, a majority in all party and demographic groups say that corruption has not changed. In the wake of recent scandals involving lobbyists and politicians, Californians are dubious that Congress will pass tough new regulations on lobbying any time soon. A majority of adults (53%) and an even greater number of likely voters (61%) say it is somewhat unlikely or very unlikely that Congress will pass regulations on lobbying in the next year. Strong majorities in all political parties say this is somewhat unlikely or very unlikely. Latinos are more optimistic than whites (61% to 33%) that new regulations on lobbying are very likely or somewhat likely to be passed. Statewide, this optimism decreases with age, income, and education. These findings are similar to those in a January ABC News/Washington Post poll in which 51 percent nationwide thought it was very unlikely or somewhat unlikely that Congress would pass new lobbying regulations. “How likely do you think it is that Congress will pass tough new regulations on political lobbying in the next year?” All Adults Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely Don't know 11% 31 24 29 5 Dem 8% 27 28 33 4 Party Rep 8% 30 28 31 3 Likely Ind Voters 9% 9% 21 26 28 27 38 34 44 - 16 - National Policies Party Perceptions We asked Californians which of the two major parties (1) is able to manage the federal government well, (2) governs in an honest and ethical way, and (3) can bring about the kind of changes the country needs. Most Democrats and Republicans believe that these statements about good government better describe the party to which they belong. However, California voters who are not affiliated with any party—18 percent of all registered voters—are more likely to say these positive statements describe the Democratic than the Republican party, while about one in four say that the three statements about good government don’t apply to either major party. Overall, Californians choose the Democratic over the Republican party in ability to manage the federal government well (42% to 31%), governing in an honest and ethical way (41% to 26%), and bringing about the kind of changes the country needs (47% to 29%). Although likely voters are more inclined than all Californians to choose the Republican Party in each case, more of the likely voters still choose the Democratic Party. Latinos are more likely than whites to pick the Democratic Party in each area—55% to 35% (able to manage the federal government well), 53% to 35% (governs in an honest and ethical way), and 58% to 41% (can bring about the changes the country needs). The percentage choosing the Democratic Party declines with age, but there is little difference between men and women in their party preference in each area Nationwide, views are similar to Californians’ about which party is better able to manage the federal government (40% Democrats, 34% Republicans) and to govern in an honest and ethical way (37% Democrats, 30% Republicans), according to a January Pew Research Center survey. This recent national survey did not ask about Americans’ perceptions of the party that can bring about the kind of changes the country needs. “Please tell me if you think each of the following phrases better describes the Republican Party and its leaders or the Democratic Party and its leaders?” Able to manage the federal government well Governs in an honest and ethical way Can bring about the kind of changes the country needs Republican Party Democratic Party Both (volunteered) Neither (volunteered) Don't know Republican Party Democratic Party Both (volunteered) Neither (volunteered) Don't know Republican Party Democratic Party Both (volunteered) Neither (volunteered) Don't know All Adults 31% 42 3 14 10 26 41 5 18 10 29 47 2 13 9 Party Dem 11% 67 4 14 4 7 64 5 18 6 8 72 3 11 6 Rep 68% 9 4 15 4 60 9 5 19 7 66 13 3 14 4 Ind 25% 40 4 24 7 20 40 6 29 5 21 44 2 25 8 Liberal 13% 67 2 11 7 9 63 5 16 7 9 74 1 9 7 Ideology Likely Moderate Conservative Voters 27% 52% 36% 43 23 38 3 33 18 13 18 9 95 19 49 30 44 22 38 4 56 25 14 21 8 10 5 22 53 34 49 24 43 3 33 18 12 16 8 84 - 17 - March 2006 National Policies Confidence in Government Californians’ confidence in Washington’s ability to handle national disasters was shaken in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and the news concerning the federal government’s response. When asked specifically about their confidence in the federal government’s readiness to respond to disasters such as a major earthquake in California, only four in 10 adults express a great deal (9%) or some (32%) confidence, while about six in 10 adults say they have very little (34%) or no (24%) confidence. Likely voters’ views are similar. In our September 2005 survey, after the response to Hurricane Katrina, half of Californians reported they had less confidence in the government to handle a major terrorist attack (51%) or a California earthquake (54%). There are strong partisan differences in confidence in the federal government today: 57 percent of Republicans express at least some confidence in the government; only 36 percent of independents and 29 percent of Democrats express this same level of confidence. Regionally, 47 percent of residents in the Other Southern California area express a great deal or some confidence in the federal government’s ability to respond to disasters, while 68 percent of San Francisco Bay Area residents have very little or no confidence. Whites and Latinos express the same degree of confidence in the federal government (42% each). Confidence declines with age and education. Californians have greater confidence in their state and local governments, with about six in 10 adults saying they have some (46%) or a great deal (13%) of confidence in the readiness of governments at this level to respond to disasters. Likely voters hold similar views. Strong majorities in all party groups express at least some confidence in their state and local governments’ readiness; however, Republicans (67%) are more confident than Democrats (59%) or independents (62%). A majority of residents in all regions have at least some confidence, with residents in the Other Southern California region (62%) again expressing the most confidence. Whites (64%) are much more likely than Latinos (53%) to express at least some confidence in their state and local governments, and confidence increases with education and income. A majority of California adults (54%) and likely voters (51%) support a one-quarter cent state sales tax increase to pay for disaster preparedness and planning. Most Democrats (58%) and independents (53%) are in favor of a state sales tax increase for this purpose, and most Republicans (55%) are opposed. Support is higher among Latinos (69%) than whites (49%), and it declines with age, education, and income. “How much confidence do you have in the______________ in terms of their readiness to respond to disasters, such as a major earthquake in California?” federal government state and local government A great deal Some Very little None Don't know A great deal Some Very little None Don't know All Adults 9% 32 34 24 1 13 46 28 11 2 Party Dem 4% 25 37 32 2 11 48 26 12 3 Rep 13% 44 29 12 2 16 51 24 8 1 Ind 9% 27 33 29 2 18 44 25 12 1 Central Valley 10% 33 33 22 2 14 43 31 10 2 Region SF Bay Los Area Angeles 5% 8% 26 33 39 33 29 24 12 11 13 45 48 30 25 12 12 22 Other Southern California 12% 35 30 20 3 15 47 26 11 1 Likely Voters 8% 31 33 27 1 12 48 27 11 2 - 18 - Survey Methodology The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, research director and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance in research and writing from Dean Bonner, project manager for this survey, and survey research associates Lunna Lopes, Jennifer Paluch, and Sonja Petek. The findings of this report are based on a telephone survey of 2,002 California adult residents interviewed between March 15 and March 22, 2006. Interviewing took place on weekday nights and weekend days, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted telephone numbers were called. All telephone exchanges in California were eligible for calling. Telephone numbers in the survey sample were called as many as six times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing by using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Each interview took an average of 17 minutes to complete. Interviewing was conducted in English or Spanish. Accent on Languages translated the survey into Spanish with assistance from Renatta DeFever. Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas, Inc. conducted the telephone interviewing. We used recent U.S. Census and state figures to compare the demographic characteristics of the survey sample with characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the census and state figures and statistical weighting to account for demographic differences did not change any of the survey results in this report. The sampling error for the total sample of 2,002 adults is +/- 2 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 2 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger: for the 1,490 registered voters, it is +/- 2.5 percent; for the 1,008 likely voters it is +/- 3 percent; for the 444 Democratic primary likely voters it is +/- 5 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. Throughout the report, we present results for four geographic regions accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “SF Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, and “Other Southern California” includes Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. Residents from all other areas, such as the north coast, central coast, and mountain counties, are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters in this report. However, sample sizes for these less populated areas of California are not large enough to separately report in tables and text. We present specific results for Latinos because they account for about 30 percent of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest growing voter groups. The sample sizes for African Americans and Asians are not large enough for separate statistical analysis. We do compare the opinions of registered Democrats, Republicans, and independents. The “independents” category includes those who are registered to vote as “decline to state”—a growing group that accounts for 18 percent of the state’s electorate. We also include the responses of “likely voters”—those who are most likely to vote in the state’s elections. We compare current survey responses both to responses in earlier PPIC Statewide Surveys, to analyze trends over time in California, and to responses in national surveys conducted by ABC News/Washington Post, CBS News, CNN/USA Today/Gallup, and the Pew Research Center. - 19 - PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT MARCH 15-22, 2006 2,002 CALIFORNIA ADULT RESIDENTS: ENGLISH AND SPANISH MARGIN OF ERROR +/-2% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE 1. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California? 37% approve 52 disapprove 11 don’t know 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Schwarzenegger is handling the issue of transportation and other infrastructure projects? 36% approve 40 disapprove 24 don’t know 3. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California legislature is handling its job? 25% approve 59 disapprove 16 don't know 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California legislature is handling the issue of transportation and other infrastructure projects? 23% approve 54 disapprove 23 don't know [Question 4a was asked March 16—22] 4a. Do you think that Governor Schwarzenegger and the state legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year, or not? 30% yes, will be able to work together 58 no, will not be able to work together 12 don’t know 5. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 35% right direction 56 wrong direction 9 don’t know 6. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 45% good times 43 bad times 12 don’t know 7. On another topic, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote? 75% yes [ask q.7a] 25 no [skip to q.23] 7a. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party or as an independent? 43% Democrat [skip to q.9] 35 Republican [skip to q.10] 20 independent [ask q.8a] 2 another party (specify) [skip to q.10] 8a. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party? 25% Republican party 40 Democratic party 32 neither (volunteered) 3 don't know [Responses recorded for questions 8b through 22 are from likely voters only. All other responses are from all adults, except where noted.] 8b. California voters like yourself will be able to choose between voting in the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or selecting a nonpartisan ballot on June 6th. All three ballots include state proposition measures. Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or on the nonpartisan ballot? 19% Democratic primary [ask q.9] 12 Republican primary [skip to q.10] 57 nonpartisan ballot [skip to q.10] 12 don’t know [skip to q.10] 9. If the Democratic primary for Governor were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? 22% Phil Angelides 23 Steve Westly 55 other/don’t know - 21 - 10. Californians will go to the polls to elect a governor in 2006. Which one issue would you like to hear the candidates talk about this year? 23% education; schools 14 immigration 11 economy, jobs 10 state budget, taxes, deficit 6 infrastructure 4 health care, health costs, insurance 3 traffic, transportation 21 other (specify) 8 don’t know 11. How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2006 governor's election—very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 13% very closely 39 fairly closely 34 not too closely 14 not at all closely If these were the candidates in the November 2006 Governor’s election [rotate questions and pairs for q.12 and q.13 and then ask “or someone else”] 12. Would you vote for… 41% Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican 29 Phil Angelides, a Democrat 30 other/don’t know 13. Would you vote for… 39% Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican 31 Steve Westly, a Democrat 30 other/don’t know 14. Which of these statements is closest to your views about Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger? [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 38% I like Arnold Schwarzenegger and I like his policies. 33 I like Arnold Schwarzenegger but I dislike his policies. 4 I dislike Arnold Schwarzenegger but I like his policies. 20 I dislike Arnold Schwarzenegger and I dislike his policies. 5 don’t know Do you consider each of these candidates for governor to be very liberal, somewhat liberal, middle-of-the road, somewhat conservative, very conservative, or don’t you know enough to say? [rotate questions q.15 to q.17] 15. How about Phil Angelides? 12% very liberal 18 somewhat liberal 10 middle-of-the-road 2 somewhat conservative 1 very conservative 57 don't know 16. How about Arnold Schwarzenegger? 3% very liberal 11 somewhat liberal 28 middle-of-the-road 35 somewhat conservative 13 very conservative 10 don't know 17. How about Steve Westly? 8% very liberal 17 somewhat liberal 13 middle-of-the-road 3 somewhat conservative 1 very conservative 58 don't know Next, we have a few questions to ask you about the propositions on the upcoming June ballot [rotate 2 blocks: (1) q.18, q.19 (2) q.20, q.21, q.22] 18. Proposition 81 is called the California Reading and Literacy Improvement and Public Library Construction and Renovation Bond Act of 2006. It provides for a bond issue in the amount not to exceed a total of $600 million dollars for the construction and renovation of public library facilities in order to expand access to reading and literacy programs in California's public education system. It expands access to public library services for all residents of California. Fiscal impacts include a state cost of about $1.2 billion dollars over 30 years to pay off both the principal and interest costs of the bond and one-time local costs statewide of about $320 million dollars for local matching contributions. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 81? 50% yes 41 no 9 don’t know - 22 - 19. Do you think that the current level of state funding for your local public libraries is more than enough, just enough, or not enough? 8% more than enough 32 just enough 48 not enough 12 don’t know 20. Proposition 82 is called the Public Preschool Education Tax Increase on Incomes Over $400,000 for Individuals; $800,000 for Couples Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute. It establishes the right to voluntary preschool for all four-year olds and is funded by a 1.7% tax on individual incomes above $400,000 annually, and couples' income over $800,000. Fiscal impacts include increased annual revenues of $2.1 billion in 2007-2008, growing with the economy in future years. All revenues would be spent on the new preschool program. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 82? 52% yes 41 no 7 don’t know [rotate q.21 and q.22] 21. Generally speaking do you think it is a good idea or a bad idea to have a specific tax directly tied to a specific service? 51% good idea 37 bad idea 12 don’t know 22. How important is attending preschool to a student's success in kindergarten through 12th grade? 58% very important 24 somewhat important 8 not too important 7 not at all important 3 don’t know 23. Changing topics, do you approve or disapprove of the governor's plan to spend $222 billion over 10 years on infrastructure projects including surface transportation, education facilities, air quality, water and flood control, jails and prisons, and courts? 69% approve 22 disapprove 9 don’t know We have a few questions about different plans for infrastructure projects that the governor and legislature have proposed. Please tell me if you favor or oppose each proposal. [rotate q.24 to q.26a] 24.How about the Governor's plan to issue about $70 billion in new state bonds from 2006 to 2014 to fund flood protection, transportation, schools and universities and prisons and public safety projects? 59% favor 31 oppose 10 don’t know 25. How about the plan proposed by some legislators to issue about $50 billion in new state bonds in 2006 and 2008 to fund flood protection, transportation, schools and universities, affordable housing and parks? 60% favor 30 oppose 10 don’t know 26. How about the plan proposed by some legislators for a pay-as-you go approach that would earmark one percent of state revenues annually over the next 10 years to fund roads, university construction and water projects? 65% favor 25 oppose 10 don’t know [Question 26a was asked March 17-22) 26a.How about the plan proposed by some legislators to issue about $23 billion in new state bonds in 2006 and 2008 to fund flood protection, schools and universities? 54% favor 33 oppose 13 don’t know 27. How would you most prefer that the state government fund the proposed infrastructure projects [rotate] (1) a state sales tax increase for all Californians; (2) increases in user fees and charges; (3) state bonds paid for through the state's general fund [or] (4) payments on a yearly basis out of the state's existing general fund? 32% payments on a yearly basis out of the state's existing general fund 25 issue state bonds 16 state sales tax increase 13 increase user fees 2 should not spend money on infrastructure (volunteered) 2 other (specify) 10 don’t know We have a few questions to ask you about how prepared you are personally for earthquakes, floods, or other disasters. - 23 - March 2006 28.First, how knowledgeable would you say you are about steps you can take to prepare for a disaster, such as a major earthquake? Would you say you are very knowledgeable, somewhat knowledgeable, not too knowledgeable or not at all knowledgeable? 29% very knowledgeable 52 somewhat knowledgeable 11 not too knowledgeable 6 not at all knowledgeable 2 don’t know [rotate q.29 and q.30] 29. Does your household have a disaster supplies kit equipped with food, water, and other essential supplies? 60% yes 40 no 30. Does your household have a definite disaster plan in case of an earthquake, flood, or other disaster? 47% yes 48 no 5 not a definite plan (volunteered) 31. How likely do you think it is that your part of California will experience a disaster, such as a major earthquake in the next 10 years? Would you say very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely or not at all likely? 32% very likely 41 somewhat likely 18 not too likely 6 not at all likely 3 don’t know 32. How worried are you that you and the members of your household will experience personal injury, property damage or a major disruption of your routine if there is a disaster, such as a major earthquake? Would you say very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried or not at all worried? 20% very worried 37 somewhat worried 30 not too worried 12 not at all worried 1 don’t know [rotate q.33 and q.34] 33. How much confidence do you have in the federal government in terms of their readiness to respond to disasters, such as a major earthquake in California—a great deal, some, very little or none? 9% a great deal 32 some 34 very little 24 none 1 don’t know 34. How much confidence do you have in the state and local government in terms of their readiness to respond to disasters, such as a major earthquake in California—a great deal, some, very little or none? 13% a great deal 46 some 28 very little 11 none 2 don’t know 35. Would you favor or oppose a one-quarter cent state sales tax increase to pay for disaster preparedness and planning efforts? 54% favor 41 oppose 5 don’t know 36. Changing topics, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling his job as President of the United States? 34% approve 62 disapprove 4 don’t know [rotate q.37 and q.38] 37. And do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling ethics in government? 34% approve 59 disapprove 7 don’t know 38. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling disaster preparedness? 28% approve 65 disapprove 7 don't know [rotate q.39 and q.40] 39. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Dianne Feinstein is handling her job as U.S. Senator? 51% approve 28 disapprove 21 don’t know - 24 - 40. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barbara Boxer is handling her job as U.S. Senator? 48% approve 30 disapprove 22 don’t know 41. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the U.S. House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job? 52% approve 24 disapprove 24 don’t know 42. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job? 35% approve 54 disapprove 11 don’t know 43. Next, I'd like to ask you about most members of Congress. Would you say that most members of Congress are corrupt or not corrupt? 39% corrupt 50 not corrupt 11 don’t know 44. Do you think that bribery and corruption in Congress is more common now or no different from the past? 34% more common now 59 no different 7 don’t know 45. Just your best guess—How likely do you think it is that Congress will pass tough new regulations on political lobbying in the next year—very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely? 11% very likely 31 somewhat likely 24 somewhat unlikely 29 very unlikely 5 don’t know Please tell me if you think each of the following phrases better describe the Republican Party and its leaders or the Democratic Party and its leaders. [rotate q .46 to q.48] 46. Is able to manage the federal government well. 31% Republican Party 42 Democratic Party 3 both (volunteered) 14 neither (volunteered) 10 don’t know 47. Governs in an honest and ethical way. 26% Republican Party 41 Democratic Party 5 both (volunteered) 18 neither (volunteered) 10 don’t know 48. Can bring about the kind of changes the country needs. 29% Republican Party 47 Democratic Party 2 both (volunteered) 13 neither (volunteered) 9 don’t know 49. Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 8% very liberal 21 somewhat liberal 33 middle-of-the-road 24 somewhat conservative 12 very conservative 2 don’t know 50. Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics—a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 22% great deal 40 fair amount 32 only a little 6 none [q.51 to q.62: background and demographic questions] - 25 - March 2006 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Advisory Committee Angela Blackwell Founder and Chief Executive Officer PolicyLink Paul Brest President The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Mollyann Brodie Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley James E. Canales President The James Irvine Foundation Matthew K. Fong President Strategic Advisory Group William Hauck President California Business Roundtable Dennis A. Hunt Vice President Communications and Public Affairs The California Endowment Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Carol S. Larson President and Chief Executive Officer The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Monica Lozano Publisher and Chief Executive Officer La Opinión Dan Rosenheim News Director KPIX-TV Carol Stogsdill President Stogsdill Consulting Cathy Taylor Vice President and Editorial Commentary Director Orange County Register Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. - 26 - PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA Board of Directors Thomas C. Sutton, Chair Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Pacific Life Insurance Company David W. Lyon President and Chief Executive Officer Public Policy Institute of California Linda Griego President and Chief Executive Officer Griego Enterprises, Inc. Edward K. Hamilton Chairman Hamilton, Rabinovitz & Alschuler, Inc. Gary K. Hart Founder Institute for Education Reform California State University, Sacramento Cheryl White Mason Vice-President Litigation Legal Department Hospital Corporation of America Ki Suh Park Design and Managing Partner Gruen Associates Constance L. Rice Co-Director The Advancement Project Walter B. Hewlett Director Center for Computer Assisted Research in the Humanities Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center Advisory Council Clifford W. Graves General Manager Community Development Department City of Los Angeles Elizabeth G. Hill Legislative Analyst State of California Hilary W. Hoynes Associate Professor Department of Economics University of California, Davis Andrés E. Jiménez Director California Policy Research Center University of California Office of the President Norman R. King Director, University Transportation Center California State University, San Bernardino Daniel A. Mazmanian School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Dean Misczynski Director California Research Bureau Rudolf Nothenberg Chief Administrative Officer (Retired) City and County of San Francisco Manuel Pastor Professor, Latin American & Latino Studies University of California, Santa Cruz Peter Schrag Contributing Editor The Sacramento Bee James P. Smith Senior Economist RAND Corporation PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 800 O San Francisco, California 94111 Phone: (415) 291-4400 O Fax: (415) 291-4401 www.ppic.org O info@ppic.org" } ["___content":protected]=> string(102) "

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" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(109) "https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-march-2006/s_306mbs/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(8532) ["ID"]=> int(8532) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:38:25" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(3746) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(8) "S 306MBS" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(8) "s_306mbs" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(12) "S_306MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(7) "1511649" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(92281) "PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY M A R C H 2006 Public Policy Institute of California Californians and Their Government ○○○○○ Mark Baldassare Research Director & Survey Director The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) is a private operating foundation established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. The Institute is dedicated to improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. PPIC’s research agenda focuses on three program areas: population, economy, and governance and public finance. Studies within these programs are examining the underlying forces shaping California’s future, cutting across a wide range of public policy concerns, including education, health care, immigration, income distribution, welfare, urban growth, and state and local finance. PPIC was created because three concerned citizens – William R. Hewlett, Roger W. Heyns, and Arjay Miller – recognized the need for linking objective research to the realities of California public policy. Their goal was to help the state’s leaders better understand the intricacies and implications of contemporary issues and make informed public policy decisions when confronted with challenges in the future. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. David W. Lyon is founding President and Chief Executive Officer of PPIC. Thomas C. Sutton is Chair of the Board of Directors. Public Policy Institute of California 500 Washington Street, Suite 800 • San Francisco, California 94111 Telephone: (415) 291-4400 • Fax: (415) 291-4401 info@ppic.org • www.ppic.org Preface The PPIC Statewide Survey series provides policymakers, the media, and the general public with objective, advocacy-free information on the perceptions, opinions, and public policy preferences of California residents. Inaugurated in April 1998, the survey series has generated a database that includes the responses of more than 134,000 Californians. The current survey is the twentieth in our Californians and Their Government series, which is conducted periodically throughout the state’s election cycles with funding by the Public Policy Institute of California. The series examines the social, economic, and political trends that underlie public policy preferences and ballot choices. The current survey focuses on the 2006 elections. It examines voters’ preferences on June primary ballot issues, including the Democratic gubernatorial primary and two state propositions, as well as Californians’ attitudes toward the elected officials who now represent them in Sacramento and Washington. It looks at residents’ perceptions of the governor’s and legislature’s plans to improve the state’s infrastructure, and of other state and national issues, including disaster preparedness of California households, confidence in state and local government to respond to disasters, and public officials’ ethics. This report presents the responses of 2,002 adult residents throughout the state to issues that include: • The California 2006 elections, including likely voter preferences in the Democratic gubernatorial primary on June 6th, potential match-ups of major party gubernatorial candidates in November, the images voters hold of candidates in the gubernatorial race, voters’ attention to gubernatorial election news, and the importance that voters place on issues related to the gubernatorial election. The survey also presents measures of support for Proposition 81 (library bond) and 82 (public preschool initiative) on the June ballot, and voters’ attitudes related to support for these ballot measures. • State policies, including overall approval ratings of Governor Schwarzenegger and the state legislature, and ratings of Governor Schwarzenegger and the state legislature on their handling of the issue of transportation and infrastructure; support for the governor’s and legislature’s infrastructure plans; and voters’ perceptions of disaster management and preparedness. • National policies, including overall approval ratings of President Bush, the U.S. Congress, and the two U.S. senators from California; specific approval ratings of President Bush on ethics in government and disaster preparedness; attitudes toward the U.S. Congress in relationship to ethics and lobbying; perceptions of the major political parties; and confidence in government to handle major disasters. • The extent to which Californians may differ in their 2006 ballot choices and on state and national policies, by party affiliation, demographics, race/ethnicity, and region of residence. This is the 65th PPIC Statewide Survey in the series, which has included a number of special surveys on topics such as the environment, housing, land use, population growth, the state budget, the initiative process, and the future, and on regional issues in areas including the Central Valley, Los Angeles County, Orange County, and San Diego County. Copies of this report may be ordered by e-mail (order@ppic.org) or phone (415-291-4400). Copies of this and earlier reports are posted on the publications page of the PPIC web site (www.ppic.org). For questions about the survey, please contact survey@ppic.org. -i- - ii - Contents Preface Press Release California 2006 Election State Policies National Policies Survey Methodology Survey Questions and Results Survey Advisory Committee i v 1 7 13 19 21 26 - iii - Press Release Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: http://www.ppic.org/main/pressreleaseindex.asp OPPORTUNITY SQUANDERED, LEADERS TAKE A HIT; STALLED INFRASTRUCTURE PLANS WERE POPULAR WITH PUBLIC Faith In Bipartisanship Plunges; Legislature Biggest Public Opinion Loser; Angelides, Westly Race A Story Of “Undecideds” SAN FRANCISCO, California, March 30, 2006 — In a rare convergence of public opinion, Californians of all political persuasions and in all regions approved of the major infrastructure measures that state leaders recently proposed – but couldn’t work together to put on the June ballot – according to a survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC). In the aftermath, the legislature’s approval rating has dropped to its lowest level in over a year, and belief that Governor Schwarzenegger and lawmakers can work together in the future has tumbled. “It’s an unfortunate irony that state leaders were unable to reconcile their differences, while voters – who are often deeply split along partisan lines – were very much in agreement,” says PPIC Statewide Survey director Mark Baldassare. “This was an opportunity to give the public something it collectively wanted.” Californians overwhelmingly support (69%) Governor Schwarzenegger’s plan to restore and expand the state’s deteriorating infrastructure by spending $222 billion over 10 years – and public approval is as high today as it was when he announced the plan in January (68%). There is also strong majority support (59%) for the governor’s proposal to issue $70 billion in state bonds, as part of his larger infrastructure package. And approval for both plans crosses all party and regional lines. Residents also strongly favor the legislature’s infrastructure proposals: 60 percent favor the Democrats’ plan to issue $50 billion in bonds in 2006 and 2008 to fund a variety of public works; 65 percent support the Republicans’ plan for a pay-as-you-go system that would set aside 1 percent of the state’s annual revenue for ten years to pay for infrastructure. “Essentially, all of these competing plans that were headed for the June ballot were very popular,” says Baldassare. However, when comparing ways to fund infrastructure, more residents like the idea of paying for projects out of the general fund (32%) than by issuing bonds (25%), raising taxes (16%) or increasing user fees (13%). Fallout from the leaders’ failure to reach a compromise solution has been significant: The number of Californians who believe the governor and legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year has plunged to 30 percent – a 13 point drop since January, and is just as low among likely voters (31%). In fact, 57 percent of likely voters do not believe lawmakers and the governor can work together, up 6 points from January. Let the Blame Game Begin… Who takes the most blame for the infrastructure crash? Lawmakers, not the governor, seem to be bearing the brunt of residents’ displeasure: The legislature’s approval rating has dropped from an already dismal 29 percent in January, to 25 percent today – similar to its lowest point (24%) since PPIC first asked this question in 2000. Approval among likely voters is slightly lower (23%), and on infrastructure specifically, only 21 percent of likely voters like the job lawmakers are doing. Disapproval of the legislature is high across party lines (Democrats 55%, Independents 63%, Republicans 67%) and geographic regions (SF Bay Area, 56%; Central Valley, 58%; Los Angeles and Other Southern California, 61% each). -v- Press Release In contrast, although the governor’s job performance ratings remain low, they haven’t, apparently, been negatively affected by recent events – and they are notably higher than the legislature’s. The governor now has an overall approval rating of 37 percent; it was 35 percent in February. Among likely voters, his approval is nearing the halfway mark (47%). His own party is much happier with him than Democrats are: Nearly three-fourths (72%) of Republicans like the job he is doing, but very few Democrats (21%), and less than a majority of independents (40%), agree. On the issue of infrastructure, approval of the governor is only slightly lower among residents (36%) and likely voters (45%) than his overall rating. The governor’s ratings may be holding steady because of his personal appeal: 71 percent of likely voters say they like Schwarzenegger, even though a majority (53%) dislike his policies. This congenial personal view of the governor holds across party lines (Democrats 57%, Independents 70%, Republicans 86%) and among Latinos (61%). Less than one-quarter (24%) of likely voters dislike Schwarzenegger personally. Angelides, Westly In Dead Heat, Making Little Impression So Far In the wake of Schwarzenegger’s failure to get an infrastructure measure on the ballot, voters still support him over Democratic gubernatorial candidates Phil Angelides and Steve Westly. Among likely voters today, 41 percent say they would vote for Schwarzenegger over Angelides (29%) and 39 percent would vote for him over Westly (31%). There is a big undecided factor (30%) in both potential match-ups. Not surprisingly, there are vast partisan differences: Republicans prefer Schwarzenegger to Angelides (72% to 4%) or Westly (71% to 7%), and Democrats prefer Angelides (55% to 15%) and Westly (55% to 16%) to Schwarzenegger. Independents are divided between Westly and Schwarzenegger (29% to 26%), and favor Schwarzenegger over Angelides (32% to 24%). Both Democratic candidates do better with Latino voters (Angelides 42% to Schwarzenegger 26%, and Westly 42% to Schwarzenegger 24%.). The race between the two Democrats is in a statistical dead heat: Among likely Democratic primary voters, 22 percent would vote for Angelides, 23 percent for Westly, and a majority 55 percent don’t know. The undecided vote is by far the biggest factor in this race. When asked about the candidates’ political ideologies, most voters say they don’t know where Angelides (57%) or Westly (58%) fall on the liberal-conservative scale. Among likely Democratic primary voters, who presumably would be better informed about these candidates, the “don’t knows” are almost as high (Angelides 56%, Westly 55%). If the match-up remains tight, independents could be the wild card, says Baldassare. “If the race is close among Democratic voters, independents will become a very important part of the equation,” he says. “They may account for less than 10 percent of voters in the Democratic primary, but that may be enough to tip the scales.” At this point, most independent likely voters (57%) say they will choose a nonpartisan ballot, but 19 percent say they will vote in the Democratic primary, and 12 percent don’t know. Immigration Rises In Importance; Majority Support For Reiner-Backed Prop 82 What one issue do likely voters most want to hear about in the upcoming elections? Once again, education and public schools top the list (23%), a response similar to one when PPIC asked this question before the 2002 primary election (21%). In fact, only one issue has significantly changed in terms of voter interest since 2002 – immigration. Immigration, legal or illegal, has jumped 10 points (4% to 14%) and now holds the number two spot among the issues voters most want to hear candidates discuss. Among Republicans (22%), it is the number one issue. Voters also appear to be focused on Proposition 82 (on the June ballot), which would raise income tax on high-income residents to fund voluntary pre-school education for all four-year olds. About half (52%) support the measure, 41 percent oppose it, and only 7 percent say they don’t know. “This is a particularly low number of undecideds at this stage in this campaign,” says Baldassare. Voter resolve may be partly explained - vi - Press Release by the fact that most (66%) of those who support the proposition believe it is generally a good idea to link a specific tax to a specific service. Among the proposition’s opponents, a majority (56%) think such linkage is a bad idea. Bush Approval Hits Record Low; Low Marks In Ethics, Disaster Preparedness This month, President Bush’s approval ratings in California hit their lowest point since he first took office in 2001. Only 34 percent of adults and 38 percent of likely voters approve of the job he is doing. And Californians are only slightly less approving than adults nationwide (34% to 37%), according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll from mid-March. In California, on ethics in government and disaster preparedness, Bush fares as badly or worse (34% and 28% approval, respectively) than he does overall. With respect to disaster readiness, the federal government as a whole commands little confidence: A strong majority of Californians (58%) say they have little or no confidence that the U.S. government is ready to respond if a major natural disaster hits the state. More Key Findings • Under the Radar…(page 4) At this stage in the lead-up to the California governor’s election, nearly half (48%) of likely voters say they are not following news about the candidates very closely or at all. • Disaster’s Coming, But We’re Prepared (pages 11,12) Nearly three-fourths (73%) of Californians think their area will be hit with a major disaster in the next ten years; 81 percent say they know how to prepare, and 60 percent have a disaster supplies kit in their home. • Congressional Corruption…(page 16) Nearly four in ten Californians (39%) believe that most members of the U.S. Congress are corrupt. • … But Not In My Backyard (pages 14,15) Despite cynicism about ethics in Washington, likely voters approve of their own representatives (59%), Senator Dianne Feinstein (56%), and Senator Barbara Boxer (50%). About the Survey The purpose of the PPIC Statewide Survey is to develop an in-depth profile of the social, economic, and political forces affecting California elections and public policy preferences. Findings of this survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,002 California adult residents interviewed between March 15th and March 22nd, 2006. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The sampling error for the total sample is +/- 2%. The size and sampling error for subgroups is as follows: For the 1490 registered voters, the sampling error is +/- 2.5%; for the 1008 likely voters, it is +/- 3%; and for the 444 Democratic primary likely voters it is +/- 5%. For more information on methodology, see page 19. Mark Baldassare is research director at PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has directed since 1998. His recent book, A California State of Mind: The Conflicted Voter in a Changing World, is available at www.ppic.org. PPIC is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to improving public policy through objective, nonpartisan research on the economic, social, and political issues that affect Californians. The institute was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. This report will appear on PPIC’s website (www.ppic.org) on March 30. ### - vii - Democratic Gubernatorial Primary 22 55 23 Percent of Democratic primary likely voters Phil Angelides Steve Westly Other/ don't know Proposition 81—Library Bond 9 Percent likely voters Potential Governor Match-Ups 60 50 41 40 29 30 39 31 20 10 0 Arnold Phil Schw arzenegger Angelides Arnold Steve Schw arzenegger Westly Proposition 82—Preschool Initiative 7 50 41 41 52 Percent All Adults Percent likely voters Percent likely voters Yes No Don't know Percent Approval for Governor's 10 Year Infrastructure Plan 80 75 68 70 68 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Dems Reps Inds Percent likely voters Yes No Don't know Approval Ratings 80 70 60 50 38 40 30 20 10 0 President 47 Governor 50 Senator Boxer 56 Senator Feinstein California 2006 Elections Governor’s Race With the June 6 Democratic gubernatorial primary campaign in its early stages, State Treasurer Phil Angelides and State Controller Steve Westly are currently in a statistical tie. Among likely Democratic primary voters, which include both registered Democrats and registered independents who say they would choose to take a Democratic primary ballot, one in four would vote either for Angelides (22%) or for Westly (23%), if the Democratic gubernatorial primary were held today. Over half (55%) of all Democratic primary likely voters, including both men and women, say they are undecided or would choose others on the ballot. With only two major candidates vying to run against incumbent GOP Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in the fall election, the race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination appears to be close as the campaign season enters a more active phase. “If the Democratic primary for governor were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?” Phil Angelides Steve Westly Other/don't know Democratic Primary Likely Voters 22% 23 55 Gender Men Women 25% 19% 21 25 54 56 The primary rules allow for independents to select a party ballot or a nonpartisan ballot. Three in 10 independent or “decline to state” voters currently say they will choose a major party ballot, over half say they will select a nonpartisan ballot, and one in 10 are undecided. Since only two in 10 independents at this time say they will select a Democratic ballot, independents may account for less than 10 percent of all Democratic primary voters. Still, independent voters could be an important factor in a close race for the Democratic nomination. “Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or on the nonpartisan ballot?” Democratic primary Republican primary Nonpartisan ballot Don't know Independent Likely Voters 19% 12 7 12 Among all likely voters, Governor Schwarzenegger is currently leading in the 2006 governor’s race. At this early stage, he leads a hypothetical contest against Angelides (41% to 29%) and against Westly (39% to 31%), with about three in 10 voters undecided or opting for other candidates in either of these match-ups. “If these were the candidates in the November 2006 governor’s election would you vote for…” Arnold Schwarzenegger Phil Angelides Other/don't know Likely Voters 41% 29 30 Arnold Schwarzenegger Steve Westly Other/don't know Likely Voters 39% 31 30 -1- California 2006 Elections Schwarzenegger has stronger support among Republican likely voters than either Angelides or Westly has among Democratic likely voters. Independent likely voters are fairly divided between the Democratic challengers and the GOP governor, and many of them are undecided when asked about possible match-ups. Angelides and Westly are ahead of the GOP governor in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles, but Schwarzenegger leads the Democratic challengers in the Central Valley and the Other Southern California region. Latinos favor the Democratic candidates over Schwarzenegger, and whites favor the GOP governor over Angelides (45% to 26%) and Westly (45% to 27%). Men favor Schwarzenegger over both Angelides and Westly (43% to 27% each), and women are divided over Schwarzenegger and Westly (36% to 35%) but favor Schwarzenegger over Angelides (38% to 31%), while three in 10 men and women are undecided. “If these were the candidates in the November 2006 governor’s election would you vote for…” Likely Voters Only Arnold Schwarzenegger Phil Angelides Other/don't know Arnold Schwarzenegger Steve Westly Other/don’t know Dem 15% 55 30 16 55 29 Party Rep 72% 4 24 71 7 22 Ind 32% 24 44 26 29 45 Central Valley 43% 25 32 41 25 34 Region SF Bay Area 24% 46 30 24 47 29 Los Angeles 34% 32 34 35 35 30 Other Southern California 56% 16 28 54 19 27 Latinos 26% 42 32 24 42 34 Gubernatorial Candidates’ Images Governor Schwarzenegger’s political challenge in this election year stems more from his policies than from his personal style. As an indication of their conflicted views about the governor, 71 percent of likely voters say they like Schwarzenegger but 53 percent say they dislike his policies. Among the seven in 10 likely voters who say they like him, there is a division over his policies (38% like, 33% dislike). As for the 53 percent of likely voters who dislike the governor’s policies, more say they like him than dislike him (33% to 20%). Although likely voters across parties say they like the governor, only GOP voters also side with his policies, while majorities of Democrats and independents say they dislike his policies “Which of these statements is closest to your views about Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger…” Likely Voters Only I like Arnold Schwarzenegger and I like his policies I like Arnold Schwarzenegger but I dislike his policies I dislike Arnold Schwarzenegger but I like his policies I dislike Arnold Schwarzenegger and I dislike his policies Don't know Likely Voters 38% 33 4 20 5 Dem 18% 39 4 36 3 Party Rep 63% 23 4 5 5 Ind 31% 39 4 18 8 Latinos 23% 38 7 31 1 -2- California 2006 Elections For both of the Democratic gubernatorial candidates, a major challenge is a lack of political identity with the electorate. Among all likely voters, nearly six in 10 are not sure where either Angelides or Westly stands on the political spectrum. By contrast, nine in 10 likely voters say they know where Schwarzenegger stands in terms of his political ideology. More likely voters identify both Westly and Angelides as liberal rather than middle-of-the road and very few describe either one as conservative. “Do you consider each of these candidates for governor to be very liberal, somewhat liberal, middle-of-the-road, somewhat conservative, very conservative, or don’t you know enough to say?” Likely Voters Only Phil Angelides Arnold Schwarzenegger Steve Westly Very liberal 12% 3 8 Somewhat liberal 18% 11 17 Ideology Middle-of- Somewhat Very the-road conservative conservative 10% 2% 1% Don’t know 57% 28 35 13 10 13 3 1 58 Even among likely voters in the Democratic primary, Angelides and Westly are largely unknown in terms of their political ideology: Over half say they don’t know enough about either candidate to place him along the political spectrum (56% and 55%). Among the rest of likely Democratic primary voters, Angelides and Westly are similarly perceived as liberal (28% to 24%), middle of the road (13% to 17%), or conservative (3% to 4%). How does this breakdown compare with the profile of Democratic primary likely voters? Forty-nine percent say they are liberal, 36 percent say middle-of-the-road, and 15 percent are self-described conservatives. Democratic Primary Likely Voters Only Phil Angelides Steve Westly Very liberal 5% 5 Somewhat liberal 23% 19 Ideology Middle-of- Somewhat Very the-road conservative conservative 13% 2% 1% 17 3 1 Don’t know 56 55 In contrast to the general lack of knowledge about the Democratic candidates, the majority of likely voters in all party groups describe Schwarzenegger as either middle-of-the-road or somewhat conservative in his political orientation. Across party groups, relatively few Republicans, Democrats, or independents think of him as either liberal or as very conservative. As for the profile of all likely voters, 29 percent describe themselves as liberal, 33 percent as middle-of-the-road, 24 percent as somewhat conservative, and 13 percent as very conservative. Among all likely voters, 65 percent of independents, 66 percent of Republicans, and 46 percent of Democrats call themselves middle-of-the-road or somewhat conservative. “How about Arnold Schwarzenegger… very liberal, somewhat liberal, middle-of-the road, somewhat conservative, or very conservative, or don't you know enough to say?” Likely Voters Only Party Democrat Republican Independent Very liberal 3% 3 5 Somewhat liberal 9% 13 11 Ideology Middle-ofthe-road Somewhat conservative 22% 34% 33 38 30 30 Very conservative 19% 7 11 Don't know 13% 6 13 - 3 - March 2006 California 2006 Elections Voters’ Interest As California heads into the 2006 governor’s election, likely voters place education (23%) at the top of the list of issues they would most like candidates to talk about. This issue is followed by immigration (14%), jobs and the economy (11%), and state budget and taxes (10%). Only 6 percent name infrastructure as the single most important issue, although another 3 percent mention transportation and traffic congestion. Health care and costs are identified as the top issue by 4 percent of likely voters. Voters’ interests today are similar to their interests in our pre-primary survey four years ago: In February 2002, 21 percent mentioned education, 12 percent named the economy, and 11 percent named the state budget and taxes as the top issue. At that time immigration was named by 4 percent of likely voters. Today, Democrats (32%) and independents (23%) are more likely than Republicans (13%) to name education as the top issue. Republicans place more emphasis on immigration (22%) and the state budget and taxes (14%) than either Democrats or independents. Voters in Los Angeles and the Other Southern California region are more likely than those in other regions to mention immigration. Concerns about the economy are lower in the Central Valley than elsewhere. Latinos are more likely than whites to mention education (28% to 21%), although this issue tops the list for both groups. “Californians will go to the polls to elect a governor in 2006. Which one issue would you like to hear the candidates talk about this year?” Likely Voters Only Education, public schools Immigration, legal or illegal Jobs, the economy State budget, taxes Infrastructure Health care and costs Transportation, traffic Likely Voters 23% 14 11 10 6 4 3 Dem 32% 7 12 6 6 5 3 Party Rep 13% 22 12 14 5 2 4 Ind 23% 13 11 9 6 4 4 Is the election generating much interest yet? About half of likely voters say they are currently following the news about the governor’s election very (13%) or fairly closely (39%). Nearly half or more in all parties and demographic groups are very or fairly closely following the news. Voters’ close attention to election news today (52%) is slightly lower than it was in our February 2002 survey (56%). The 2002 state primary generated a 35 percent turnout of registered voters. “How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2006 governor's election—very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely?” Likely Voters Only Very closely Fairly closely Not too closely Not at all closely Likely Voters 13% 39 34 14 Dem 12% 40 35 13 Party Rep 13% 38 35 14 Ind 14% 42 29 15 -4- California 2006 Elections Proposition 81: Public Library Bond Proposition 81, a $600 million state bond measure placed on the ballot by the California Legislature, would fund the construction and renovation of public libraries in California. The public library bond is one of two state propositions on the June primary ballot. When likely voters are read the text of the measure that will appear on the ballot, 50 percent say they would vote yes if the election were held today, while 41 percent would vote no and 9 percent are undecided. There is a partisan divide over this measure. Proposition 81 is strongly favored among Democrats, with 62 percent supporting it and three in 10 opposed. The measure also leads, though by a narrower margin, among independent voters, with 51 percent in favor and 42 percent opposed. However, a majority of Republicans (53%) are opposed, with 38 percent are in favor. By region, the bond measure draws the strongest support in the San Francisco Bay Area (59%), followed by Los Angeles (51%), while it falls below a majority in the Central Valley (46%) and the Other Southern California region (42%). Support for Proposition 81 is slightly higher among Latinos (56%) than among whites (49%) and is similar among those with and without children in the home. Support for Proposition 81 rises with level of education. “Proposition 81 is called the California Reading and Literacy Improvement and Public Library Construction and Renovation Bond Act of 2006…. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 81?”* Likely Voters Only Yes No Don’t know Likely Voters 50% 41 9 Party Dem 62% 30 8 Rep 38% 53 9 Ind 51% 42 7 Central Valley 46% 48 6 Region SF Bay Area 59% 34 7 Los Angeles 51% 39 10 Other Southern California 42% 47 11 What about current library funding? Half of likely voters believe the current level of state funding for local public libraries is not enough, one in three say the funding is just right, and 8 percent think it’s more than enough. Of those planning to vote yes on the bond measure, seven in 10 think the current funding levels are inadequate; of those opposed to the bond, two in three think libraries already receive just enough (50%) or more than enough (16%) funding. Democrats (60%) are more inclined than Republicans (33%) or independents (51%) to think that library funding is inadequate. Latinos (52%) are more likely than whites (47%) to hold this view, and this perception also tends to increase with level of education. “Do you think that the current level of state funding for your local public libraries is more than enough, just enough, or not enough?” Likely Voters Only More than enough Just enough Not enough Don't know Likely Voters 8% 32 48 12 Prop. 81 Yes No 3% 16% 18 50 69 23 10 11 * For complete question wording, see question 18 in the survey questionnaire, page 22. -5- March 2006 California 2006 Elections Proposition 82: Public Preschool Education Tax Initiative The other measure on the June ballot, Proposition 82, would raise the income tax on high-income residents to fund voluntary, free preschool education for all four-year-olds in California. After hearing the text that will appear on the June ballot, 52 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes on Proposition 82 if the election were held today, while 41 percent would vote no. Again, this measure reveals a partisan divide: Democrats (67%) and independents (57%) are strongly in favor of it, while a solid majority of Republicans (59%) are opposed. Residents in the San Francisco Bay Area are more likely than residents in other regions of the state to favor Proposition 82. Support is considerably higher among Latinos than whites (62% to 49%) and among younger voters, and increases with level of education. “Proposition 82 is called the Public Preschool Education Tax Increase on Incomes Over $400,000 for Individuals; $800,000 for Couples Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.... If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 82?”* Likely Voters Only Yes No Don’t know Likely Voters 52% 41 7 Party Dem 67% 26 7 Rep 35% 59 6 Ind 57% 37 6 Central Valley 50% 45 5 Region SF Bay Area 59% 33 8 Los Angeles 50% 40 10 Other Southern California 47% 47 6 About half of likely voters (51%) approve of tying a specific tax to a specific service—the concept of earmarking found in Proposition 82—while 37 percent are opposed. More independents (57%) and Democrats (54%) than Republicans (49%) say earmarking is a good idea. Among Proposition 82 supporters, 66 percent are in favor of earmarking. Among those opposed to the measure, a majority (56%) say that it is a bad idea to tie a specific tax to a specific service. “Generally speaking do you think it is a good idea or a bad idea to have a specific tax directly tied to a specific service?” Likely Voters Only Good idea Bad idea Don't know Likely Voters 51% 37 12 Prop. 82 Yes No 66% 24 36% 56 10 8 Regardless of their position on Proposition 82, eight in 10 likely voters think that attending preschool is very (58%) or somewhat important (24%) to a student’s success in kindergarten to 12th grade. The perception of the high value of preschool education is more strongly held among Democrats (69% very important) and independents (57% very important) than Republicans (46% very important). Among those who would vote yes on Proposition 82, 78 percent believe that attending preschool is very important to later school success. As for those who would vote no on Proposition 82, 32 percent say that attending preschool is very important to later school success while another 34 percent say it is somewhat important. * For complete question wording, see question 20 in the survey questionnaire, page 23. -6- State Policies Governor’s Approval Ratings The majority of Californians continue to have a negative view of the way Governor Schwarzenegger is handling his job (52% disapprove, 37% approve). His approval rating among all adults was at 33 percent in October before November’s special election, and then increased to 40 percent in January. His approval dropped somewhat in February (35%) and is similar today (37%). His approval rating now is in range of a year ago (40%, April 2005) and significantly lower than two years ago (55%, February 2004). Today, Republicans (72%) overwhelmingly approve of the way Governor Schwarzenegger is handling his job while Democrats (70%) overwhelmingly disapprove. Independents are more divided but fall on the negative side (40% approve, 48% disapprove). Likely voters are divided in their assessment of his job performance (47% approve; 45% disapprove). Across regions, about six in 10 adults in Los Angeles (63%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (61%) disapprove, while close to half of residents in the Other Southern California region (49%) and the Central Valley (44%) approve of the governor’s job performance. Men are more likely than women (42% to 32%) and whites are more likely than Latinos (48% to 17%) to approve of the governor, and his approval increases with age, education, and income. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 37% 52 11 Party Dem 21% 70 9 Rep 72% 20 8 Ind 40% 48 12 Central Valley 44% 46 10 Region SF Bay Area 26% 61 13 Los Angeles 27% 63 10 Other Southern California 49% 41 10 Likely Voters 47% 45 8 When asked about his handling of transportation and other infrastructure projects, the governor’s approval ratings (36% all adults, 45% likely voters) are similar to his overall approval ratings. Although the governor has focused his efforts this year on the issue of rebuilding California through a variety of infrastructure projects, not all Californians are sure about his plans or whether they approve of them— nearly one in four adults and one in five likely voters says they don’t know about his performance in this area. Across regions, the governor receives the highest approval numbers in the Other Southern California area. His approval among Republican voters is lower on this specific issue (62%) than on his overall job performance (72%), while Democrats view him less negatively on this issue (52%) than on his overall job performance (70%). Fewer than half in all demographic categories approve of the governor on the issue of transportation and infrastructure projects, and approval increases with age, education, and income. “Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Schwarzenegger is handling the issue of transportation and other infrastructure projects?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 36% 40 24 Party Dem 27% 52 21 Rep 62% 16 22 Ind 37% 36 27 Central Valley 35% 39 26 Region SF Bay Area 29% 46 25 Los Angeles 30% 48 22 Other Southern California 45% 31 24 Likely Voters 45% 34 21 -7- State Policies Governor’s Infrastructure Plan After the defeat of all four of his ballot initiatives in last November’s special election, Governor Schwarzenegger dedicated himself in 2006 to the issue of rebuilding California’s aging infrastructure. He announced a plan in January to spend $222 billion over 10 years on transportation, educational facilities, water and flood control, jails and prisons, and courts. Although the governor and many of the state’s legislators had hoped to present voters with an initial bond proposal on the June primary ballot, they were unable to reach a compromise solution before the deadline. Nevertheless, Californians are overwhelmingly in support of the governor’s plans for the future—nearly seven in ten adults and likely voters approve of his $222 billion proposal for infrastructure. Solid majorities across parties, regions, and demographic groups voice approval for it. Approval of his plan remains constant since he first announced it in January (68%). “Do you approve or disapprove of the governor’s plan to spend $222 billion over 10 years on infrastructure projects including surface transportation, education facilities, air quality, water and flood control, jails and prisons, and courts?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 69% 22 9 Party Dem 68% 23 9 Rep 75% 18 7 Ind 68% 26 6 Central Valley 71% 22 7 Region SF Bay Area 66% 25 9 Los Angeles 68% 24 8 Other Southern California 72% 20 8 Likely Voters 71% 21 8 Although there may be some general agreement between the governor and state legislators about the need to spend more on infrastructure, consensus breaks down over issues of how much money should be spent, for what purposes, and where the money will come from. In our survey, we asked about the governor’s plan to issue about $70 billion in state bonds for public works from 2006 to 2014 as part of the overall infrastructure package. Six in ten adults (59%) and 54 percent of likely voters say they favor the governor’s plan. Majorities across parties, regions, and political ideologies (i.e. self-identified liberals, moderates, conservatives) approve of issuing $70 billion in state bonds. Although more than half in all demographic groups approve of his plan, support declines with age and education, and is higher among Latinos (70%) than whites (56%). Whether or not they approve of the governor’s overall job performance, majorities approve of his bond proposal. Of those who approve of his 10-year, $222 billion infrastructure plan, seven in 10 (71%) also approve of the $70 billion bond proposal. “Do you favor or oppose the governor’s plan to issue about $70 billion in new state bonds from 2006 to 2014 to fund flood protection, transportation, schools and universities, prisons and public safety projects?” Favor Oppose Don't know All Adults 59% 31 10 Party Dem 54% 35 11 Rep 59% 32 9 Ind 53% 37 10 Central Valley 61% 30 9 Region SF Bay Area 52% 33 15 Los Angeles 62% 28 10 Other Southern California 60% 31 9 Likely Voters 54% 35 11 -8- State Policies Legislature’s Approval Ratings The state legislature fares significantly worse than the governor in the ratings of Californians—only 25 percent of all adults and 23 percent of likely voters approve of the way the legislature is handling its job. Overall approval among adults is down from January of this year (29%) and it has hovered around 30 percent or less for more than a year. The PPIC Survey has measured job approval of the California Legislature since September 2000; the current approval rating rivals its low point of 24 percent in December 2005 and is 33 points below the record high of 58 percent in January 2001. Today, fewer than 30 percent across parties, regions, and demographic groups approve of the way the legislature is handling its job. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 25% 59 16 Party Dem 28% 55 17 Rep 23% 67 10 Ind 25% 63 12 Central Valley 28% 58 14 Region SF Bay Area 26% 56 18 Los Angeles 21% 61 18 Other Southern California 24% 61 15 Likely Voters 23% 65 12 Californians are also more negative in their ratings of the legislature than of the governor on the issue of transportation and other infrastructure projects. One in four adults (23%) and 21 percent of likely voters approve of the legislature on this issue. Approval is similarly low across parties and all demographic groups, with fewer than 30 percent approving. As is the case with the governor, many Californians (23% adults; 21% likely voters) are unsure about the legislature’s performance on this issue. In the wake of the failed attempt earlier this month to place an infrastructure bond on the June ballot, only three in ten adults (30%) and likely voters (31%) think their state elected officials will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year. Nearly six in ten adults (58%) and likely voters (57%) do not think the governor and state legislature will be able to work together. Republicans (39% yes, 49% no) are more likely than Democrats (27% yes, 63% no) and independents (30% yes, 58% no) to express optimism. Across regions, residents in the San Francisco Bay Area are the most pessimistic (24% yes, 64% no) while those in the Other Southern California region are the least pessimistic (35% yes, 53% no). Most of those who disapprove of the legislature’s (67%) and governor’s (75%) job performance do not believe the governor and legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot. Optimism about the ability of the governor and legislature to work together has dropped since January, when 43 percent said they would be able to work together and accomplish a lot and 48 percent said they would not. “Do you think that Governor Schwarzenegger and the state legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year, or not?” Yes No Don't know All Adults 30% 58 12 Party Dem 27% 63 10 Rep 39% 49 12 Ind 30% 58 12 Central Valley 32% 56 12 Region SF Bay Area 24% 64 12 Los Angeles 30% 60 10 Other Southern California 35% 53 12 Likely Voters 31% 57 12 - 9 - March 2006 State Policies Legislature’s Infrastructure Plans The legislature also attempted to craft legislation this year that would address the state’s infrastructure needs through borrowing and other funding mechanisms. While the parties in the two legislative houses did not succeed in these efforts, the proposals they put forward all received significant support from Californians. Democrats in the legislature had a proposal to issue $50 billion in new state bonds in 2006 and 2008 to fund flood protection, transportation, schools and universities, affordable housing, and parks. Sixty percent of Californians say they favor this proposal, while 30 percent oppose it. Among likely voters, 52 percent are in favor and 38 percent are opposed. Support is highest among Democrats (65%) and independents (58%), while Republicans are divided on this plan (43% favor, 47% oppose). Although there is solid majority support across the state’s regions, Latinos (76%) are more likely than whites (53%) to favor this proposal, and support declines with age, education, and income. Another proposal offered by Democrats in the legislature called for about $23 billion in state bonds in 2006 and 2008 for flood protection, schools, and universities. This legislative plan had the support of a majority of adults (54% favor, 33% oppose) while likely voters are divided (46% favor, 40% oppose). Republicans in the legislature proposed an infrastructure plan using a pay-as-you-go approach that would earmark one percent of state general fund revenues annually over the next 10 years to fund roads, university construction, and water projects. Two in three Californians (65%) and likely voters (64%) favor this proposal while about one in four in each of these groups opposes this particular plan. Support for this proposal is high across all of the state’s regions and party groups. Support among Latinos (71%) is somewhat higher than among whites (64%), and favor for this funding proposal decreases somewhat with age, education and income. What is the preferred method of payment for the state’s infrastructure projects? Californians are divided on this issue, with 32 percent of Californians saying they favor paying on a yearly basis out of the state’s existing general fund, while 25 percent would prefer to issue state bonds. Fewer favor a state sales tax hike (16%) or increasing user fees (13%) for new funding. Support for the pay-as-you-go approach is only slightly higher among Republicans (35%) and independents (34%) than Democrats (29%), while support for a state sales tax increase is only slightly higher among Democrats (18%) than Republicans (15%) and independents (13%). As for funding infrastructure projects through issuing new state bonds, one in four in all regions supports this idea; across parties, Democrats (27%) are only slightly more likely than Republicans (23%) and independents (24%) to prefer this funding method. “Do you you favor or oppose each proposal?” Party How about the plan proposed by some legislators… All Adults Dem Rep to issue about $50 billion in new state bonds in 2006 and 2008 to fund flood protection, transportation, schools and universities, affordable housing and parks? Favor Oppose Don't know 60% 30 10 65% 25 10 43% 47 10 for a pay-as-you go approach that Favor 65 66 60 would earmark one percent of state revenues annually over the next 10 Oppose 25 25 30 years to fund roads, university construction and water projects? Don't know 10 9 10 Region SF Other Central Bay Los Southern Likely Ind Valley Area Angeles California Voters 58% 32 61% 31 64% 24 61% 29 56% 35 52% 38 10 8 12 10 9 10 67 64 64 64 67 64 24 26 24 27 24 27 9 10 12 9 99 - 10 - State Policies Disaster Perceptions With 2006 marking the 100-year anniversary of the massive earthquake that shook San Francisco, and with Hurricane Katrina last summer as a recent backdrop, three in four Californians think it is very (32%) or somewhat (41%) likely that their part of California will experience a disaster, such as a major earthquake, in the next 10 years. Just one in four adults says that a disaster in their region is not too likely (18%) or not at all likely (6%). Residents in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles areas are more apt than those living in other regions to say a disaster is very likely. Latinos are slightly more likely than whites (36% to 29%) and women are slightly more inclined than men (34% to 29%) to think it is very likely that their part of the state will experience a disaster such as a major earthquake. “How likely do you think it is that your part of California will experience a disaster, such as a major earthquake, in the next 10 years? Would you say very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?” Very likely Somewhat likely Not too likely Not at all likely Don't know All Adults 32% 41 18 6 3 Central Valley 20% 30 34 15 1 Region SF Bay Area 34% 46 14 2 4 Los Angeles 38% 42 10 3 7 Other Southern California 31% 42 18 4 5 Latinos 36% 38 14 6 6 When respondents were asked how worried they are that they or a member of their household will experience personal injury, property damage, or a major disruption of their routine if there is a disaster such as a major earthquake, nearly six in 10 Californians are either very worried (20%) or somewhat worried (37%). Four in 10 adults reports being not too worried (30%) or not at all worried (12%) that a disaster will affect them. Across the state’s regions, the percent who are very worried is highest among Los Angeles residents (26%). Latinos (43%) are far more likely than whites (9%) to be very worried, while homeowners (13%) are much less likely to be very worried than those who rent their homes (33%). Concern about being affected by a disaster decreases with age, education and income. “How worried are you that you and the members of your household will experience personal injury, property damage or a major disruption of your routine if there is a disaster, such as a major earthquake? Would you say very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not at all worried?” Very worried Somewhat worried Not too worried Not at all worried Don’t know All Adults 20% 37 30 12 1 Central Valley 19% 31 33 16 1 Region SF Bay Area 17% 40 29 12 2 Los Angeles 26% 39 24 9 2 Other Southern California 18% 37 32 12 1 Latinos 43% 34 15 7 1 - 11 - March 2006 State Policies Disaster Preparedness When asked how much they how know about steps they can take to prepare for a disaster, such as a major earthquake, only three in 10 Californians (29%) say they are very knowledgeable, while just over half claim to be only somewhat knowledgeable (52%). Fewer than one in five residents admits to being not too (11%) or not at all (6%) knowledgeable about this subject. Knowledge about disaster preparedness is somewhat higher among residents of the San Francisco Bay Area, the Other Southern California and Los Angeles regions than among residents of the Central Valley. Whites (35%) are more likely than Latinos (17%) to say they are very knowledgeable about how to prepare for a disaster. Knowledge also increases with age, education, homeownership and income. “How knowledgeable would you say you are about steps you can take to prepare for a disaster, such as a major earthquake? Would you say you are very knowledgeable, somewhat knowledgeable, not too knowledgeable or not at all knowledgeable?” Region All Adults Central Valley SF Bay Area Los Angeles Other Southern California Latinos Very knowledgeable 29% 23% 30% 28% 30% 17% Somewhat knowledgeable 52 55 55 50 54 49 Not too knowledgeable 11 11 10 12 11 18 Not at all knowledgeable 6 10 4 8 5 14 Don’t know 21 1 2 02 Disaster preparedness is an important factor in surviving a disaster such as a flood or earthquake. Today, six in 10 Californians say they have a disaster supplies kit while four in 10 do not have one. Residents of the Other Southern California region and Los Angeles are more likely than others to have a disaster supplies kit. Whites (63%) are more likely than Latinos (55%) to have one, and the percentage of adults having a disaster supplies kit increases with age, education, homeownership and income. Having a definite plan for the household is another important element in disaster preparedness. Today, over half of Californians say they do not have a definite disaster plan. Residents in the Other Southern California region (54%) are more likely than others to have a definite plan. Whites (51%) are more likely than Latinos (37%) to have a definite disaster plan for their household. The proportion of Californians having a definite disaster plan increases with age, education, homeownership and income. Does your household have a disaster supplies kit equipped with food, water, and other essential supplies? Does your household have a definite disaster plan in case of an earthquake, flood, or other disaster? Yes No Yes No Not a definite plan (volunteered) All Adults 60% Central Valley 52% 40 48 47 41 48 55 54 Region SF Bay Area 58% Los Angeles 61% Other Southern California 64% Latinos 55% 42 39 36 45 44 45 54 37 50 51 42 60 64 4 3 - 12 - National Policies President’s Approval Ratings President Bush’s overall job approval rating in California is now at its lowest point since he took office in 2001. Only 34 percent of adults and 38 percent of likely voters approve of the way he is handling his job as president. This marks a four-point drop from our January survey, and a 46-point drop from the high point of his approval in November 2001. Californians are less approving than Americans overall: According to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll in mid-March, 37 percent of U.S. adults approved of Bush’s overall job performance. There are strong partisan and regional differences—Democrats (83%) and independents (69%) overwhelmingly disapprove of Bush, while two in three Republicans (68%) approve of the job he is doing. Larger majorities in the San Francisco Bay Area (76%) and Los Angeles (66%) than in the Central Valley (56%) and Other Southern California region (51%) disapprove of the president. While a majority of adults in all demographic groups disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job, whites are somewhat more favorable than Latinos (38% to 29%). Californians give the president similar ratings when asked about the way he is handling ethics in government, with 34 percent of adults and 39 percent of likely voters saying they approve of the way he handles this issue. Adults nationwide are more favorable toward his performance in this area: An ABC/Washington Post poll in January found that 42 percent of U.S. adults approved of the president’s handling of ethical issues and 56 percent disapproved. Strong majorities of Democrats (82%) and independents (65%) disapprove of Bush’s handling of ethics in government, while two in three Republicans approve of his performance; and, once again, residents of the Other Southern California region are more favorable than other Californians with respect to the president’s performance. As for disaster preparedness, Californians offer an even less favorable opinion of Bush’s performance, with only 28 percent of adults and 29 percent of likely voters saying they approve. There are no national comparisons on this issue. An overwhelming majority of Democrats (85%) and independents (77%) disapprove of the way Bush is handling disaster preparedness; and even among Republicans, approval ratings fall to 55 percent. Majorities in all regions disapprove of his performance. Approval ratings on this issue are similar among Latinos (27%) than whites (30%). More than six in 10 in all demographic groups disapprove of the president’s performance on disaster preparedness. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling…” his job as president of the United States? Approve Disapprove Don't know ethics in government? Approve Disapprove Don't know disaster preparedness? Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 34% 62 4 34 59 7 28 65 7 Party Dem 14% 83 3 15 82 3 12 85 3 Rep 68% 30 2 68 25 7 55 37 8 Region Other Central SF Bay Los Southern Likely Ind Valley Area Angeles California Voters 27% 39% 20% 30% 45% 38% 69 56 76 66 51 59 45 4 4 43 28 39 19 31 44 39 65 53 74 62 48 57 78 7 7 84 19 33 16 26 37 29 77 60 78 68 56 65 47 6 6 76 - 13 - National Policies Ratings of California’s U.S. Senators Half of California adults approve of the job being done by Senator Dianne Feinstein, who is seeking reelection this November. Senator Feinstein’s approval ratings are unchanged since October 2005, when we last asked this question. Likely voters give her an even higher approval rating, with 56 percent saying they approve and 34 percent saying they disapprove of how she is handling her job. There are partisan and regional differences in ratings of the Democratic U.S. Senator: A majority of Democrats (72%) and independents (56%) approve, while half of Republicans (53%) disapprove of her performance. Senator Feinstein has higher approval ratings in the San Francisco Bay Area (62%) and Los Angeles (52%) than in the Central Valley (47%) and Other Southern California region (45%). Half of Californians who think the state is going in the right direction approve of the way Senator Dianne Feinstein is handling her job. However, so do half of those who say the state is heading in the wrong direction. Approval of Senator Feinstein’s job performance increases with age, income, and education. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Dianne Feinstein is handling her job as U.S. Senator?” Approve Disapprove Don't know Party All Adults 51% 28 21 Dem 72% 15 13 Rep 35% 53 12 Central Ind Valley 56% 47% 27 32 17 21 Region SF Bay Los Area Angeles Other Southern California 62% 52% 45% 22 24 32 16 24 23 Likely Voters 56% 34 10 Ratings of Senator Barbara Boxer among all adults are similar to Senator Feinstein’s. Forty-eight percent approve of the way Senator Boxer is handling her job; 30 percent disapprove. Senator Boxer has a 50 percent approval rating among likely voters, while 38 percent say they disapprove. Her approval rating remains unchanged since October 2005 (48% all adults, 50% likely voters). There are strong partisan differences in ratings of the Democratic U.S. Senator: Seven in 10 Democrats approve but more than six in 10 Republicans disapprove of Senator Boxer’s job performance. Residents of the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles are more likely to express approval than those in the Central Valley and Other Southern California region. Approval of Senator Boxer increases with education, and women (51%) are somewhat more likely than men (45%) to approve of her performance in office. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barbara Boxer is handling her job as U.S. Senator?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 48% 30 22 Party Dem 74% 11 15 Rep 23% 62 15 Ind 51% 28 21 Central Valley 46% 31 23 Region SF Bay Area 58% 24 18 Los Angeles 50% 25 25 Other Southern California 40% 36 24 Likely Voters 50% 38 12 - 14 - National Policies Ratings of California’s Congressional Representatives and of Congress Overall Asked about their own representatives in Congress, 52 percent of adults and 59 percent of likely voters say they approve of the way their congressional representative is handling his or her job. These findings are similar to those in our October 2005 survey, when 53 percent of residents and 57 percent of likely voters approved of their representative’s performance. However, Californians are less likely than adults nationwide (64%) to approve of their own representative’s performance, according to an ABC/Washington Post poll in January. Although nearly half or more residents across regions and party groups say they approve of their congressional representative, Democrats (60%) are more likely than Republicans (55%) and independents (50%) to register approval. Approval also increases with age and income. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that your own representative to the U.S. House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 52% 24 24 Party Dem 60% 20 20 Rep 55% 26 19 Ind 50% 28 22 Central Valley 50% 23 27 Region SF Bay Area 58% 21 21 Los Angeles 50% 24 26 Other Southern California 50% 25 25 Likely Voters 59% 25 16 While Californians may be satisfied with the job performance of their own congressional representative, a majority of residents (54%) and an even greater percentage of likely voters (62%) disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job. Disapproval of Congress has risen since our October 2005 survey, when 46 percent of all adults and 55 percent of likely voters disapproved of Congress’s performance. Californians’ disapproval ratings of Congress today are similar to those of Americans as a whole (54%), as reported in a nationwide CBS News poll in March. Half or more of California adults in all major regions say they disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job. Although a majority in all party groups disapprove of Congress, Democrats (64%) and independents (62%) are more disapproving than Republicans (53%). Whites are far more likely than Latinos to disapprove of Congress (60% to 41%), and disapproval increases with income, age, and education. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 35% 54 11 Party Dem 28% 64 8 Rep 40% 53 7 Central Ind Valley 31% 37% 62 50 7 13 Region SF Bay Area 28% 63 9 Los Angeles 36% 53 11 Other Southern California 39% 52 9 Likely Voters 31% 62 7 - 15 - March 2006 National Policies Ethics and Lobbying While approval ratings for Congress as a whole are low, about half of Californians, and 56 percent of likely voters, say most members of Congress are not corrupt. Across party groups, Republicans (63%) are more likely than Democrats (52%) to hold this view, and independents are divided (48% corrupt, 44% not corrupt). Men (53%) are somewhat more likely than women (47%) to say that most members are not corrupt, and belief in the integrity of Congress also increases with age, education, and income. “Would you say that most members of Congress are corrupt or not corrupt?” Corrupt Not corrupt Don't know All Adults 39% 50 11 Dem 39% 52 9 Party Rep 29% 63 8 Ind 48% 44 8 Likely Voters 36% 56 8 When asked if bribery and corruption are more common now or no different than in the past, 59 percent of all adults and 62 percent of likely voters say there is no difference, while about one in three says they are now more common (34% adults, 33% likely voters). A February Pew Research Center survey found a similar 60 percent of Americans nationwide saying there is no difference and 36 percent saying corruption is more common now. Democrats (38%) are more likely than Republicans (27%) and independents (34%) to say corruption is more common now. However, a majority in all party and demographic groups say that corruption has not changed. In the wake of recent scandals involving lobbyists and politicians, Californians are dubious that Congress will pass tough new regulations on lobbying any time soon. A majority of adults (53%) and an even greater number of likely voters (61%) say it is somewhat unlikely or very unlikely that Congress will pass regulations on lobbying in the next year. Strong majorities in all political parties say this is somewhat unlikely or very unlikely. Latinos are more optimistic than whites (61% to 33%) that new regulations on lobbying are very likely or somewhat likely to be passed. Statewide, this optimism decreases with age, income, and education. These findings are similar to those in a January ABC News/Washington Post poll in which 51 percent nationwide thought it was very unlikely or somewhat unlikely that Congress would pass new lobbying regulations. “How likely do you think it is that Congress will pass tough new regulations on political lobbying in the next year?” All Adults Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely Don't know 11% 31 24 29 5 Dem 8% 27 28 33 4 Party Rep 8% 30 28 31 3 Likely Ind Voters 9% 9% 21 26 28 27 38 34 44 - 16 - National Policies Party Perceptions We asked Californians which of the two major parties (1) is able to manage the federal government well, (2) governs in an honest and ethical way, and (3) can bring about the kind of changes the country needs. Most Democrats and Republicans believe that these statements about good government better describe the party to which they belong. However, California voters who are not affiliated with any party—18 percent of all registered voters—are more likely to say these positive statements describe the Democratic than the Republican party, while about one in four say that the three statements about good government don’t apply to either major party. Overall, Californians choose the Democratic over the Republican party in ability to manage the federal government well (42% to 31%), governing in an honest and ethical way (41% to 26%), and bringing about the kind of changes the country needs (47% to 29%). Although likely voters are more inclined than all Californians to choose the Republican Party in each case, more of the likely voters still choose the Democratic Party. Latinos are more likely than whites to pick the Democratic Party in each area—55% to 35% (able to manage the federal government well), 53% to 35% (governs in an honest and ethical way), and 58% to 41% (can bring about the changes the country needs). The percentage choosing the Democratic Party declines with age, but there is little difference between men and women in their party preference in each area Nationwide, views are similar to Californians’ about which party is better able to manage the federal government (40% Democrats, 34% Republicans) and to govern in an honest and ethical way (37% Democrats, 30% Republicans), according to a January Pew Research Center survey. This recent national survey did not ask about Americans’ perceptions of the party that can bring about the kind of changes the country needs. “Please tell me if you think each of the following phrases better describes the Republican Party and its leaders or the Democratic Party and its leaders?” Able to manage the federal government well Governs in an honest and ethical way Can bring about the kind of changes the country needs Republican Party Democratic Party Both (volunteered) Neither (volunteered) Don't know Republican Party Democratic Party Both (volunteered) Neither (volunteered) Don't know Republican Party Democratic Party Both (volunteered) Neither (volunteered) Don't know All Adults 31% 42 3 14 10 26 41 5 18 10 29 47 2 13 9 Party Dem 11% 67 4 14 4 7 64 5 18 6 8 72 3 11 6 Rep 68% 9 4 15 4 60 9 5 19 7 66 13 3 14 4 Ind 25% 40 4 24 7 20 40 6 29 5 21 44 2 25 8 Liberal 13% 67 2 11 7 9 63 5 16 7 9 74 1 9 7 Ideology Likely Moderate Conservative Voters 27% 52% 36% 43 23 38 3 33 18 13 18 9 95 19 49 30 44 22 38 4 56 25 14 21 8 10 5 22 53 34 49 24 43 3 33 18 12 16 8 84 - 17 - March 2006 National Policies Confidence in Government Californians’ confidence in Washington’s ability to handle national disasters was shaken in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and the news concerning the federal government’s response. When asked specifically about their confidence in the federal government’s readiness to respond to disasters such as a major earthquake in California, only four in 10 adults express a great deal (9%) or some (32%) confidence, while about six in 10 adults say they have very little (34%) or no (24%) confidence. Likely voters’ views are similar. In our September 2005 survey, after the response to Hurricane Katrina, half of Californians reported they had less confidence in the government to handle a major terrorist attack (51%) or a California earthquake (54%). There are strong partisan differences in confidence in the federal government today: 57 percent of Republicans express at least some confidence in the government; only 36 percent of independents and 29 percent of Democrats express this same level of confidence. Regionally, 47 percent of residents in the Other Southern California area express a great deal or some confidence in the federal government’s ability to respond to disasters, while 68 percent of San Francisco Bay Area residents have very little or no confidence. Whites and Latinos express the same degree of confidence in the federal government (42% each). Confidence declines with age and education. Californians have greater confidence in their state and local governments, with about six in 10 adults saying they have some (46%) or a great deal (13%) of confidence in the readiness of governments at this level to respond to disasters. Likely voters hold similar views. Strong majorities in all party groups express at least some confidence in their state and local governments’ readiness; however, Republicans (67%) are more confident than Democrats (59%) or independents (62%). A majority of residents in all regions have at least some confidence, with residents in the Other Southern California region (62%) again expressing the most confidence. Whites (64%) are much more likely than Latinos (53%) to express at least some confidence in their state and local governments, and confidence increases with education and income. A majority of California adults (54%) and likely voters (51%) support a one-quarter cent state sales tax increase to pay for disaster preparedness and planning. Most Democrats (58%) and independents (53%) are in favor of a state sales tax increase for this purpose, and most Republicans (55%) are opposed. Support is higher among Latinos (69%) than whites (49%), and it declines with age, education, and income. “How much confidence do you have in the______________ in terms of their readiness to respond to disasters, such as a major earthquake in California?” federal government state and local government A great deal Some Very little None Don't know A great deal Some Very little None Don't know All Adults 9% 32 34 24 1 13 46 28 11 2 Party Dem 4% 25 37 32 2 11 48 26 12 3 Rep 13% 44 29 12 2 16 51 24 8 1 Ind 9% 27 33 29 2 18 44 25 12 1 Central Valley 10% 33 33 22 2 14 43 31 10 2 Region SF Bay Los Area Angeles 5% 8% 26 33 39 33 29 24 12 11 13 45 48 30 25 12 12 22 Other Southern California 12% 35 30 20 3 15 47 26 11 1 Likely Voters 8% 31 33 27 1 12 48 27 11 2 - 18 - Survey Methodology The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, research director and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance in research and writing from Dean Bonner, project manager for this survey, and survey research associates Lunna Lopes, Jennifer Paluch, and Sonja Petek. The findings of this report are based on a telephone survey of 2,002 California adult residents interviewed between March 15 and March 22, 2006. Interviewing took place on weekday nights and weekend days, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted telephone numbers were called. All telephone exchanges in California were eligible for calling. Telephone numbers in the survey sample were called as many as six times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing by using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Each interview took an average of 17 minutes to complete. Interviewing was conducted in English or Spanish. Accent on Languages translated the survey into Spanish with assistance from Renatta DeFever. Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas, Inc. conducted the telephone interviewing. We used recent U.S. Census and state figures to compare the demographic characteristics of the survey sample with characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the census and state figures and statistical weighting to account for demographic differences did not change any of the survey results in this report. The sampling error for the total sample of 2,002 adults is +/- 2 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 2 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger: for the 1,490 registered voters, it is +/- 2.5 percent; for the 1,008 likely voters it is +/- 3 percent; for the 444 Democratic primary likely voters it is +/- 5 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. Throughout the report, we present results for four geographic regions accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “SF Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, and “Other Southern California” includes Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. Residents from all other areas, such as the north coast, central coast, and mountain counties, are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters in this report. However, sample sizes for these less populated areas of California are not large enough to separately report in tables and text. We present specific results for Latinos because they account for about 30 percent of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest growing voter groups. The sample sizes for African Americans and Asians are not large enough for separate statistical analysis. We do compare the opinions of registered Democrats, Republicans, and independents. The “independents” category includes those who are registered to vote as “decline to state”—a growing group that accounts for 18 percent of the state’s electorate. We also include the responses of “likely voters”—those who are most likely to vote in the state’s elections. We compare current survey responses both to responses in earlier PPIC Statewide Surveys, to analyze trends over time in California, and to responses in national surveys conducted by ABC News/Washington Post, CBS News, CNN/USA Today/Gallup, and the Pew Research Center. - 19 - PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT MARCH 15-22, 2006 2,002 CALIFORNIA ADULT RESIDENTS: ENGLISH AND SPANISH MARGIN OF ERROR +/-2% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE 1. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California? 37% approve 52 disapprove 11 don’t know 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Schwarzenegger is handling the issue of transportation and other infrastructure projects? 36% approve 40 disapprove 24 don’t know 3. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California legislature is handling its job? 25% approve 59 disapprove 16 don't know 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California legislature is handling the issue of transportation and other infrastructure projects? 23% approve 54 disapprove 23 don't know [Question 4a was asked March 16—22] 4a. Do you think that Governor Schwarzenegger and the state legislature will be able to work together and accomplish a lot in the next year, or not? 30% yes, will be able to work together 58 no, will not be able to work together 12 don’t know 5. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 35% right direction 56 wrong direction 9 don’t know 6. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 45% good times 43 bad times 12 don’t know 7. On another topic, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote? 75% yes [ask q.7a] 25 no [skip to q.23] 7a. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party or as an independent? 43% Democrat [skip to q.9] 35 Republican [skip to q.10] 20 independent [ask q.8a] 2 another party (specify) [skip to q.10] 8a. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party? 25% Republican party 40 Democratic party 32 neither (volunteered) 3 don't know [Responses recorded for questions 8b through 22 are from likely voters only. All other responses are from all adults, except where noted.] 8b. California voters like yourself will be able to choose between voting in the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or selecting a nonpartisan ballot on June 6th. All three ballots include state proposition measures. Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or on the nonpartisan ballot? 19% Democratic primary [ask q.9] 12 Republican primary [skip to q.10] 57 nonpartisan ballot [skip to q.10] 12 don’t know [skip to q.10] 9. If the Democratic primary for Governor were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? 22% Phil Angelides 23 Steve Westly 55 other/don’t know - 21 - 10. Californians will go to the polls to elect a governor in 2006. Which one issue would you like to hear the candidates talk about this year? 23% education; schools 14 immigration 11 economy, jobs 10 state budget, taxes, deficit 6 infrastructure 4 health care, health costs, insurance 3 traffic, transportation 21 other (specify) 8 don’t know 11. How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2006 governor's election—very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 13% very closely 39 fairly closely 34 not too closely 14 not at all closely If these were the candidates in the November 2006 Governor’s election [rotate questions and pairs for q.12 and q.13 and then ask “or someone else”] 12. Would you vote for… 41% Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican 29 Phil Angelides, a Democrat 30 other/don’t know 13. Would you vote for… 39% Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican 31 Steve Westly, a Democrat 30 other/don’t know 14. Which of these statements is closest to your views about Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger? [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 38% I like Arnold Schwarzenegger and I like his policies. 33 I like Arnold Schwarzenegger but I dislike his policies. 4 I dislike Arnold Schwarzenegger but I like his policies. 20 I dislike Arnold Schwarzenegger and I dislike his policies. 5 don’t know Do you consider each of these candidates for governor to be very liberal, somewhat liberal, middle-of-the road, somewhat conservative, very conservative, or don’t you know enough to say? [rotate questions q.15 to q.17] 15. How about Phil Angelides? 12% very liberal 18 somewhat liberal 10 middle-of-the-road 2 somewhat conservative 1 very conservative 57 don't know 16. How about Arnold Schwarzenegger? 3% very liberal 11 somewhat liberal 28 middle-of-the-road 35 somewhat conservative 13 very conservative 10 don't know 17. How about Steve Westly? 8% very liberal 17 somewhat liberal 13 middle-of-the-road 3 somewhat conservative 1 very conservative 58 don't know Next, we have a few questions to ask you about the propositions on the upcoming June ballot [rotate 2 blocks: (1) q.18, q.19 (2) q.20, q.21, q.22] 18. Proposition 81 is called the California Reading and Literacy Improvement and Public Library Construction and Renovation Bond Act of 2006. It provides for a bond issue in the amount not to exceed a total of $600 million dollars for the construction and renovation of public library facilities in order to expand access to reading and literacy programs in California's public education system. It expands access to public library services for all residents of California. Fiscal impacts include a state cost of about $1.2 billion dollars over 30 years to pay off both the principal and interest costs of the bond and one-time local costs statewide of about $320 million dollars for local matching contributions. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 81? 50% yes 41 no 9 don’t know - 22 - 19. Do you think that the current level of state funding for your local public libraries is more than enough, just enough, or not enough? 8% more than enough 32 just enough 48 not enough 12 don’t know 20. Proposition 82 is called the Public Preschool Education Tax Increase on Incomes Over $400,000 for Individuals; $800,000 for Couples Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute. It establishes the right to voluntary preschool for all four-year olds and is funded by a 1.7% tax on individual incomes above $400,000 annually, and couples' income over $800,000. Fiscal impacts include increased annual revenues of $2.1 billion in 2007-2008, growing with the economy in future years. All revenues would be spent on the new preschool program. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 82? 52% yes 41 no 7 don’t know [rotate q.21 and q.22] 21. Generally speaking do you think it is a good idea or a bad idea to have a specific tax directly tied to a specific service? 51% good idea 37 bad idea 12 don’t know 22. How important is attending preschool to a student's success in kindergarten through 12th grade? 58% very important 24 somewhat important 8 not too important 7 not at all important 3 don’t know 23. Changing topics, do you approve or disapprove of the governor's plan to spend $222 billion over 10 years on infrastructure projects including surface transportation, education facilities, air quality, water and flood control, jails and prisons, and courts? 69% approve 22 disapprove 9 don’t know We have a few questions about different plans for infrastructure projects that the governor and legislature have proposed. Please tell me if you favor or oppose each proposal. [rotate q.24 to q.26a] 24.How about the Governor's plan to issue about $70 billion in new state bonds from 2006 to 2014 to fund flood protection, transportation, schools and universities and prisons and public safety projects? 59% favor 31 oppose 10 don’t know 25. How about the plan proposed by some legislators to issue about $50 billion in new state bonds in 2006 and 2008 to fund flood protection, transportation, schools and universities, affordable housing and parks? 60% favor 30 oppose 10 don’t know 26. How about the plan proposed by some legislators for a pay-as-you go approach that would earmark one percent of state revenues annually over the next 10 years to fund roads, university construction and water projects? 65% favor 25 oppose 10 don’t know [Question 26a was asked March 17-22) 26a.How about the plan proposed by some legislators to issue about $23 billion in new state bonds in 2006 and 2008 to fund flood protection, schools and universities? 54% favor 33 oppose 13 don’t know 27. How would you most prefer that the state government fund the proposed infrastructure projects [rotate] (1) a state sales tax increase for all Californians; (2) increases in user fees and charges; (3) state bonds paid for through the state's general fund [or] (4) payments on a yearly basis out of the state's existing general fund? 32% payments on a yearly basis out of the state's existing general fund 25 issue state bonds 16 state sales tax increase 13 increase user fees 2 should not spend money on infrastructure (volunteered) 2 other (specify) 10 don’t know We have a few questions to ask you about how prepared you are personally for earthquakes, floods, or other disasters. - 23 - March 2006 28.First, how knowledgeable would you say you are about steps you can take to prepare for a disaster, such as a major earthquake? Would you say you are very knowledgeable, somewhat knowledgeable, not too knowledgeable or not at all knowledgeable? 29% very knowledgeable 52 somewhat knowledgeable 11 not too knowledgeable 6 not at all knowledgeable 2 don’t know [rotate q.29 and q.30] 29. Does your household have a disaster supplies kit equipped with food, water, and other essential supplies? 60% yes 40 no 30. Does your household have a definite disaster plan in case of an earthquake, flood, or other disaster? 47% yes 48 no 5 not a definite plan (volunteered) 31. How likely do you think it is that your part of California will experience a disaster, such as a major earthquake in the next 10 years? Would you say very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely or not at all likely? 32% very likely 41 somewhat likely 18 not too likely 6 not at all likely 3 don’t know 32. How worried are you that you and the members of your household will experience personal injury, property damage or a major disruption of your routine if there is a disaster, such as a major earthquake? Would you say very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried or not at all worried? 20% very worried 37 somewhat worried 30 not too worried 12 not at all worried 1 don’t know [rotate q.33 and q.34] 33. How much confidence do you have in the federal government in terms of their readiness to respond to disasters, such as a major earthquake in California—a great deal, some, very little or none? 9% a great deal 32 some 34 very little 24 none 1 don’t know 34. How much confidence do you have in the state and local government in terms of their readiness to respond to disasters, such as a major earthquake in California—a great deal, some, very little or none? 13% a great deal 46 some 28 very little 11 none 2 don’t know 35. Would you favor or oppose a one-quarter cent state sales tax increase to pay for disaster preparedness and planning efforts? 54% favor 41 oppose 5 don’t know 36. Changing topics, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling his job as President of the United States? 34% approve 62 disapprove 4 don’t know [rotate q.37 and q.38] 37. And do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling ethics in government? 34% approve 59 disapprove 7 don’t know 38. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling disaster preparedness? 28% approve 65 disapprove 7 don't know [rotate q.39 and q.40] 39. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Dianne Feinstein is handling her job as U.S. Senator? 51% approve 28 disapprove 21 don’t know - 24 - 40. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barbara Boxer is handling her job as U.S. Senator? 48% approve 30 disapprove 22 don’t know 41. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the U.S. House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job? 52% approve 24 disapprove 24 don’t know 42. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job? 35% approve 54 disapprove 11 don’t know 43. Next, I'd like to ask you about most members of Congress. Would you say that most members of Congress are corrupt or not corrupt? 39% corrupt 50 not corrupt 11 don’t know 44. Do you think that bribery and corruption in Congress is more common now or no different from the past? 34% more common now 59 no different 7 don’t know 45. Just your best guess—How likely do you think it is that Congress will pass tough new regulations on political lobbying in the next year—very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely? 11% very likely 31 somewhat likely 24 somewhat unlikely 29 very unlikely 5 don’t know Please tell me if you think each of the following phrases better describe the Republican Party and its leaders or the Democratic Party and its leaders. [rotate q .46 to q.48] 46. Is able to manage the federal government well. 31% Republican Party 42 Democratic Party 3 both (volunteered) 14 neither (volunteered) 10 don’t know 47. Governs in an honest and ethical way. 26% Republican Party 41 Democratic Party 5 both (volunteered) 18 neither (volunteered) 10 don’t know 48. Can bring about the kind of changes the country needs. 29% Republican Party 47 Democratic Party 2 both (volunteered) 13 neither (volunteered) 9 don’t know 49. Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 8% very liberal 21 somewhat liberal 33 middle-of-the-road 24 somewhat conservative 12 very conservative 2 don’t know 50. Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics—a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 22% great deal 40 fair amount 32 only a little 6 none [q.51 to q.62: background and demographic questions] - 25 - March 2006 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Advisory Committee Angela Blackwell Founder and Chief Executive Officer PolicyLink Paul Brest President The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Mollyann Brodie Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley James E. Canales President The James Irvine Foundation Matthew K. Fong President Strategic Advisory Group William Hauck President California Business Roundtable Dennis A. Hunt Vice President Communications and Public Affairs The California Endowment Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Carol S. Larson President and Chief Executive Officer The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Monica Lozano Publisher and Chief Executive Officer La Opinión Dan Rosenheim News Director KPIX-TV Carol Stogsdill President Stogsdill Consulting Cathy Taylor Vice President and Editorial Commentary Director Orange County Register Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. - 26 - PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA Board of Directors Thomas C. Sutton, Chair Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Pacific Life Insurance Company David W. Lyon President and Chief Executive Officer Public Policy Institute of California Linda Griego President and Chief Executive Officer Griego Enterprises, Inc. Edward K. Hamilton Chairman Hamilton, Rabinovitz & Alschuler, Inc. Gary K. Hart Founder Institute for Education Reform California State University, Sacramento Cheryl White Mason Vice-President Litigation Legal Department Hospital Corporation of America Ki Suh Park Design and Managing Partner Gruen Associates Constance L. Rice Co-Director The Advancement Project Walter B. Hewlett Director Center for Computer Assisted Research in the Humanities Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center Advisory Council Clifford W. Graves General Manager Community Development Department City of Los Angeles Elizabeth G. Hill Legislative Analyst State of California Hilary W. Hoynes Associate Professor Department of Economics University of California, Davis Andrés E. Jiménez Director California Policy Research Center University of California Office of the President Norman R. King Director, University Transportation Center California State University, San Bernardino Daniel A. Mazmanian School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Dean Misczynski Director California Research Bureau Rudolf Nothenberg Chief Administrative Officer (Retired) City and County of San Francisco Manuel Pastor Professor, Latin American & Latino Studies University of California, Santa Cruz Peter Schrag Contributing Editor The Sacramento Bee James P. Smith Senior Economist RAND Corporation PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 800 O San Francisco, California 94111 Phone: (415) 291-4400 O Fax: (415) 291-4401 www.ppic.org O info@ppic.org" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 09:38:25" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(8) "s_306mbs" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:38:25" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 09:38:25" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["guid"]=> string(50) "http://148.62.4.17/wp-content/uploads/S_306MBS.pdf" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_mime_type"]=> string(15) "application/pdf" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" ["status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["attachment_authors"]=> bool(false) }