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object(Timber\Post)#3742 (44) { ["ImageClass"]=> string(12) "Timber\Image" ["PostClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Post" ["TermClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Term" ["object_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["custom"]=> array(5) { ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(12) "S_308MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(7) "1517844" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(90331) "March 2008 The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research on major economic, social, and political issues. The institute’s goal is to raise public awareness and to give elected representatives and other decisionmakers a more informed basis for developing policies and programs. The institute’s research focuses on the underlying forces shaping California’s future, cutting across a wide range of public policy concerns, including economic development, education, environment and resources, governance, population, public finance, and social and health policy. PPIC is a private, nonprofit organization. It does not take or support positions on any ballot measures or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. PPIC was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. Mark Baldassare is President and Chief Executive Officer of PPIC. Thomas C. Sutton is Chair of the Board of Directors. PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, California 94111 phone: 415.291.4400 fax: 415.291.4401 PPIC Sacramento Center Senator Office Building 1121 L Street, Suite 801 Sacramento, California 95814 phone: 916.440.1120 fax: 916.440.1121 www.ppic.org survey@ppic.org TABLE OF CONTENTS About the Survey Press Release State Issues National Issues Regional Map Methodology Questionnaire and Results 1 3 7 15 24 25 27 ABOUT THE SURVEY The PPIC Statewide Survey provides policymakers, the media, and the general public with objective, advocacy-free information on the perceptions, opinions, and public policy preferences of California residents. Inaugurated in April 1998, this is the 84th PPIC Statewide Survey in a series that has generated a database that includes the responses of more than 178,000 Californians. This survey is the 28th in the Californians and Their Government series, which is conducted periodically to examine the social, economic, and political trends that influence public policy preferences and ballot choices. It is supported with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. The current survey seeks to raise public awareness, inform decisionmakers, and stimulate public discussion on state and national issues, the presidential election, and the state’s June primary election. The context for this survey includes the presidential primary season, a downturn in the national economy, and a multi-billion dollar gap between spending and revenues in the state budget. The survey examines Californians’ opinions of the economy and the overall direction of the state and the nation, their trust in the state and federal governments, and their perceptions of the elected officials who represent them in Sacramento and Washington. We also examine voters’ perceptions of candidates and major political parties, preferences in the presidential election, and their support for two eminent domain initiatives, Propositions 98 and 99, on the June ballot. We also analyze residents’ attitudes regarding immigration policy and the situation in Iraq. This report presents the responses of 2,002 California adult residents on these specific topics: „ State issues, including approval ratings for Governor Schwarzenegger and the state legislature; perceptions of the most important issue facing California today; opinions about the general direction of the state and the outlook for the state’s economy; trust in state government; support for Propositions 98 and 99 and the perceived need for change in eminent domain laws, and perceptions of rent control. We also examine attitudes about the state’s fiscal situation, including perceptions of the state budget, preferred methods for dealing with the state’s multi-billion dollar budget deficit, and perceived need for change in the budget process. „ National issues, including overall approval ratings for President Bush and his handling of the situation in Iraq; the general direction of the nation, the outlook for the U.S. economy, and trust in the federal government; overall approval ratings of Congress, Senators Boxer and Feinstein, House Speaker Pelosi, and respondents’ own congressional representatives; attitudes toward the situation in Iraq and immigration policy; perceptions of the major political parties’ handling of specific national issues, candidate favorability ratings, and preferences in the presidential election. „ The extent to which Californians—based on their political party affiliation, region of residence, race/ethnicity, and other demographics—may differ with regard to perceptions, attitudes, and preferences involving state and national issues. Copies of this report may be ordered online (www.ppic.org) or by phone (415-291-4400). For questions about the survey, please contact survey@ppic.org. View our searchable PPIC Statewide Survey database online at http://www.ppic.org/main/survAdvancedSearch.asp. 1 PRESS RELEASE Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: http://www.ppic.org/main/pressreleaseindex.asp PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT As Budget Angst Grows, Californians Take Stock of Fiscal Options And Take Aim at Elected Leaders MOST RESIDENTS BELIEVE STATE IS IN A RECESSION; OBAMA LEADS MCCAIN IN PRESIDENTIAL MATCHUP; CLINTON VS. MCCAIN A DRAW SAN FRANCISCO, California, March 26, 2008 — Pink slips for public school teachers and other reductions in services for vulnerable Californians are making state residents reconsider the wisdom of using spending cuts to balance the budget, according to a survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. Californians are becoming increasingly gloomy about California’s precarious fiscal condition and bleak economic outlook. And that gloom is taking its toll in their assessment of elected leaders. Nearly all Californians (94%) see the state budget situation as at least somewhat of a problem today. With the reality of state spending cuts hitting home, concern about the effects has grown dramatically. Today, 56 percent of Californians say they are very concerned about the effects of spending reductions in the governor’s budget plan, up 20 points since January (36%). The upshot is that Californians are now apparently more willing to consider tax increases as part of a solution to the budget crisis. When asked how they would most prefer to deal with the state’s budget gap, 42 percent of Californians choose a mix of spending cuts and tax increases, up from 36 percent in December. And fewer seem to view spending cuts alone as an option (down from 42% in December to 30% today). Democrats and Republicans remain wide apart on budget solutions—but they have edged closer. Most significantly, Republicans today are less likely than in December to support dealing with the budget gap mostly through spending cuts (down from 61% in December to 50% today) and are more likely to support a mix of spending cuts and tax increases (up from 25% to 35%). One thing all sides can agree on? Majorities of Democrats (66%), independents (67%), and Republicans (69%) believe major changes are needed in California’s budget process. “Californians are rethinking their priorities, given what they’ve learned about spending cuts over the past couple of months,” says PPIC president and CEO Mark Baldassare. “Beyond that, they are feeling financially squeezed as a result of the economic downturn. Any reduction in state services may only add to their sense of vulnerability.” IT’S A RECESSION, STUPID Although experts and elected officials are reluctant to utter the “r-word,” a solid majority of Californians (72%) say the state is already in economic recession. Over half (58%) believe that this recession is serious (26%) or moderate (32%). And they don’t expect it to get better any time soon: Most state residents (76%) expect bad economic times for California in the coming year—a 4 point increase since January (72%) and an 11 point increase since December (65%). Pessimism about the state’s economy is now at its highest point since the PPIC statewide survey was launched a decade ago. These growing fiscal anxieties only intensify broader concerns about the future: Nearly two in three Californians (63%) 3 Californians and Their Government today believe the state is generally headed in the wrong direction—a 9 point jump since January (54%) and approaching the level of pessimism residents felt in the fall of 2003. Things go from bad to worse when Californians consider the state of the nation. Seventy-three percent of state residents say that the nation is headed in the wrong direction, a 10 point increase from June 2007 (63%). Three in four residents (76%) also believe that the nation will experience bad times financially in the coming year, a 23-point increase from last June (53%). These are record-shattering levels of negativity about the direction and economy of the United States. Not surprisingly, an increasing number of Californians are saying that the economy (35%) is the most important issue facing the state today, followed by education (13%), immigration (11%), and the state budget (8%). Mention of the economy has nearly doubled since December (from 18% to 35%). AS THE ECONOMY GOES, SO GO APPROVAL RATINGS With the state facing a multibillion dollar shortfall in revenues and the national economy slumping, do Californians think their leaders are up to the challenge? Increasingly, the answer is no. At the state level, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s ratings continue to slip. Currently, 44 percent of state residents approve of the way he is handling his job, down 6 points since January (50%) and 13 points since December (57%). And the governor is not alone in this downward slide: Approval ratings of the state legislature are also lower today (30%) than they were in January (34%) and December (41%). Residents have a more positive perception of their own assembly and senate representatives (42%), but this rating is significantly lower than it was in December (51%). Feeding the dissatisfaction with state leaders is a strong distrust of state government: Most Californians say they can trust Sacramento to do what is right only some of the time (59%), believe a lot of their tax dollars are wasted (57%), and view state government as pretty much run by a few big interests (63%). Although things look bad for state elected officials, they could be worse. Job approval ratings for President George W. Bush have hit a new low: Only 24 percent of Californians approve of his performance as president, down 5 points since December (29%). Approval ratings for the U.S. Congress have remained relatively steady since December (from 31% to 33% today). However, Californians are slightly less likely today than they were in December to approve of their own representative’s performance (from 51% in December to 47% today). While California’s U.S. Senators fare far better than President Bush and the Congress as a whole, their popularity has also taken a hit. Forty-four percent of Californians approve of Senator Dianne Feinstein’s job performance, down 5 points since September (from 49% to 44%). Senator Barbara Boxer’s job approval rating has dipped slightly to 41 percent today from 45 percent in September. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi receives positive marks from 43 percent of state residents, similar to her approval rating in September (45%). And Californians express even deeper distrust of their federal government than they do of their state government. Two in three Californians say they can trust Washington to do what is right only some of the time (64%), believe a lot of their tax dollars are wasted (63%), and view federal government as pretty much run by a few big interests (67%). IRAQ: FIVE YEARS LATER At the five-year anniversary, President Bush gets low marks for his handling of the U.S. invasion of Iraq: 72 percent of Californians disapprove of the job he is doing. Although state residents remain highly negative about the war—64 percent say things are not going well for the United States—the number holding this view has dropped 5 points since December (69%) and 10 points since September (74%). Even so, at 64 percent, Californians are far more negative than adults nationally (48%) about the war. They are also less likely to see the troop surge as a success: Only 34 percent of Californians say the 4 PPIC Statewide Survey Press Release deployment of additional troops to Iraq has made the situation better, compared to 42 percent of adults nationwide. Despite the marginal improvement in attitudes about Iraq, the majority of Californians (58%) still believe the United States should bring its troops home as soon as possible (only 38 percent favor keeping forces there until the situation has stabilized). These opinions are similar to those in December (60% bring troops home, 35% keep them there). Californians (58%) are considerably more likely than adults nationwide (49%) to favor bringing troops home as soon as possible. BRIGHT SPOT? POSITIVE ATTITUDE ABOUT IMMIGRANTS Despite all the economic and political negativity, Californians are basically positive on immigration. A majority of state residents (59%) believe immigrants are a benefit to California because of their hard work and job skills, compared to 34 percent who say they are a burden because they use public services. Belief that immigrants benefit the state has increased substantially over the past decade: In 1998, only 46 percent of Californians held this view. “Conventional wisdom would predict that attitudes about immigrants would deteriorate as economic conditions worsen, but that hasn’t happened recently,” says Baldassare. What about attitudes toward illegal immigrants? Here again, state residents take a positive view. Twothirds (66%) think illegal immigrants should be allowed to apply for work permits that would let them stay and work in the United States, about the same percentage as one year ago (64%). Strong majorities of Democrats (73%), independents (62%), and likely voters (60%) believe that illegal immigrants should be allowed to apply for work permits, while Republicans are divided (48% should be allowed, 50% should not). Taking it a step further, seven in 10 Californians (72%) think most illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the United States for at least two years should be given a chance to keep their jobs and apply for legal status; only one-quarter (25%) believe these immigrants should be deported. This supportive attitude is shared by majorities across all political parties (Democrats 80%, independents 72%, Republicans 52%) and among likely voters (65%) and is unchanged since December (72%). MAKINGS OF A CLOSE PRESIDENTIAL RACE COME NOVEMBER? California’s likely voters see the Democratic Party as more capable than the Republican Party on four key national issues. They give Democrats a 32-point advantage in handling health care (59% Democratic Party to 27% Republican Party), a 13-point advantage in handling the economy (50% to 37%), a 10-point edge in handling the situation in Iraq (48% to 38%), and a 5-point edge in handling immigration (42% to 37%). So how do California voters feel about their potential choices in November? Six in 10 likely voters (61%) say they have a favorable opinion of Democratic Senator Barack Obama. Just under half have a favorable view of Republican Senator John McCain (49%) and Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton (45%). Most Democrats have a positive impression of Obama (78%) and Clinton (74%), and most Republicans have a favorable opinion of McCain (75%). Who wins the popularity contest among independent voters? More independents have a favorable view of Obama (57%) than of McCain (47%) or Clinton (35%). If the election were held today, California’s likely voters would favor Obama over McCain by 9 points (49% to 40%). However, Obama and McCain split the independent vote (44% Obama, 42% McCain). Between Clinton and McCain, the race is a toss up: 46 percent of likely voters in the state support Clinton and 43 percent support McCain. Among independent voters, McCain has an 8-point edge over Clinton (44% to 36%). Nearly all likely voters (92%) say they are following news about the presidential election. March 2008 5 Californians and Their Government PARSING EMINENT DOMAIN INITIATIVES Before we get to the nominating conventions and general election, however, California faces yet another primary. Two of the initiatives on the June 3rd primary election ballot—Propositions 98 and 99—would limit the government’s power of eminent domain. In fact, 71 percent of likely voters believe this power needs major (38%) or minor (33%) changes, but they are much more in favor of Proposition 99 to do that job. One reason may be that besides blocking state and local government from taking private property to transfer it to another private party, Proposition 98 also prohibits rent control. And 53 percent of likely voters believe that rent control is a good thing (39 percent think it’s bad). Proposition 98’s rent control limit may help explain why only 37 percent of likely voters would give it a yes vote (41 percent would vote no). In contrast, at least half of likely voters (53%) would vote yes on Proposition 99, which confines itself to barring government from taking an owner-occupied home to transfer the property to another private party. Republicans (45%) are more likely than Democrats (29%) and independents (36%) to favor Proposition 98, but they are also even more likely to support Proposition 99 (Republicans, 58%; Democrats and independents, 50% each). OTHER KEY FINDINGS Did you know that a majority of parents of children ages 13 to 17 (55%) think their kids don’t get enough outdoor time because they are occupied with television, computers, and electronic entertainment? For analysis of survey questions related to youth and outdoor activities, please visit the statewide survey page at www.ppic.org to view our latest Just the Facts publication, “California’s Youth and Outdoor Activities: Parents’ Perspectives.” ABOUT THE SURVEY This edition of the PPIC Statewide Survey is part of the Californians and Their Government series and is supported by funding from The James Irvine Foundation. The survey is intended to raise public awareness, inform decisionmakers, and stimulate public discussions about the social, economic, and political trends that influence Californians’ public policy preferences and ballot choices. Findings are based on a telephone survey of 2,002 California adult residents interviewed between March 11 and 18, 2008. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish. The sampling error for the total sample is +/2% and for the 1,077 likely voters is +/- 3%. For more information on methodology, see page 25. Mark Baldassare is president and CEO of PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has directed since 1998. PPIC is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research on major economic, social, and political issues. The institute was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. This report will appear on PPIC’s website (www.ppic.org) after 10 p.m. on March 26, 2008. ### 6 PPIC Statewide Survey STATE ISSUES KEY FINDINGS „ The economy (35%) is mentioned ahead of other concerns when Californians are asked to name the most important issue facing their state today. Seven in 10 residents say California is in a recession and three in four expect the state to have bad economic times during the next 12 months. (page 8) „ Large majorities of residents and likely voters believe the state is headed in the wrong direction. Californians give mixed job approval ratings for the governor, and only three in 10 approve of the legislature’s overall performance. Four in 10 adults and likely voters approve of the performance of their individual legislators. (pages 8-10) „ Large majorities of residents and likely voters think the budget situation is a big problem and are at least somewhat concerned about the effects of spending reductions in the governor’s budget plan. Nearly half of likely voters say they prefer to deal with the budget gap through a mix of spending cuts and tax increases. Solid majorities say major changes are needed in the state’s budget process. (pages 10, 11) „ Nearly six in 10 Californians say they can trust state government to do what is right only some of the time. The same share say state government wastes a lot of the money they pay in taxes. (page 12) „ Two initiatives to limit the government’s power of eminent domain are on the June primary ballot. Likely voters’ support for Proposition 99 (53% yes, 27% no) is higher than for Proposition 98 (37% yes, 41% no) when ballot titles and labels are read to them. Four in 10 say that major changes to eminent domain are needed. (pages 13, 14) Economic Outlook for California 100 Expect good times financially Expect bad times financially 80 78 71 76 Percent all adults 60 51 46 47 44 47 45 51 40 38 43 43 39 40 20 15 20 16 0 Feb Jan Feb Feb Feb Jan Mar Mar Mar 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Approval Ratings of State Elected Officials 100 Governor Legislature 80 Percent who approve Percent all adults 59 61 60 60 51 46 50 44 37 40 33 36 40 37 32 41 34 34 30 20 25 0 Jan Sep Jan Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Assessing the Need for Change in the State Budget Process 6 6 23 All adults 65 Needs major changes Needs minor changes Fine the way it is Don't know 7 Californians and Their Government OVERALL MOOD As the nation’s economy continues to slump, Californians’ anxiety about the economy is evident. Thirtyfive percent of Californians name jobs and the economy as the most important issue facing people in the state today. Far fewer residents cite education and schools (13%), immigration (11%), or the state budget (8%). Mention of the economy has nearly doubled since December 2007 (18% to 35%). Today, Democrats (35%) and independents (31%) are more likely than Republicans (24%) to name the economy. Residents of the Central Valley (40%) are more likely than those in the Other Southern California region (34%), Los Angeles (34%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (32%) to name the economy as the most important issue. “Thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today?” Top four issues mentioned All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind Likely Voters Jobs, economy 35% 35% 24% 31% 31% Education, schools 13 17 10 16 16 Immigration, illegal immigration 11 5 22 13 12 State budget, deficit, taxes 8 8 13 7 12 Echoing their general economic concerns, the percentage of Californians who think the state will have bad times financially during the next 12 months has reached a new high—76 percent of residents hold this view. This is 4 percent higher than the previous high mark in January (72%). More than seven in 10 across regions and party, gender, and racial/ethnic groups share this negative view. With apprehension about the economy at record levels, seven in 10 residents say California is now in a serious (26%), moderate (32%), or mild recession (14%), while one in five (22%) say the state is not in a recession. Democrats (77%) are more likely than independents (68%) or Republicans (63%) to say the state is in a recession. Across regions, about 70 percent or more of Californians say the state is in a recession. The belief that California is in a serious recession is more likely to be held by Latinos (36%) than whites (20%), and by lower-income residents than by upper-income residents. “Would you say that California is in an economic recession or not? (if yes: Do you think it is in a serious, a moderate, or a mild recession?)” Yes, serious recession All Adults 26% Central Valley 27% Region San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles 23% 28% Other Southern California 26% Yes, moderate recession 32 34 32 30 30 Yes, mild recession 14 11 16 17 13 No, not in a recession 22 24 21 18 24 Don’t know 64 8 7 7 Likely Voters 24% 32 14 24 6 Californians are also pessimistic about the overall direction the state is heading. Only one in four (26%) think the state is headed in the right direction and 63 percent say the wrong direction. This level of pessimism about the direction of the state approaches levels held by residents in the fall of 2003 when the state was facing a serious economic downturn (66% August 2003, 67% September 2003, 67% October 2003). Today, about 60 percent or more of residents across regions and party, gender, and racial/ethnic groups express a negative outlook. 8 PPIC Statewide Survey State Issues JOB PERFORMANCE RATINGS OF STATE ELECTED OFFICIALS Amid the rising pessimism about the state’s direction and economic outlook, Governor Schwarzenegger’s job approval ratings continue to slip. Currently, 44 percent of residents approve of the way he is handling his job. His approval rating has dropped 6 points since January and 13 points since December. A year ago, 51 percent expressed approval. The last time the governor’s ratings were at today’s level was August 2006 (44%). At that time, his approval had been steadily increasing after reaching a low of 33 percent in October 2005, just before the special election that November. Likely voters today are more likely to approve (49%) than disapprove (45%) of the governor. Republicans are as likely to express approval (61%) as they were in January (62%), but approval among independents has dropped 12 points since January (from 55% to 43% today) and 6 points among Democrats (48% to 42%). Across all regions, fewer than half express approval, and approval is lowest in Los Angeles (35%). Although a majority of whites (52%) say they approve, a majority of Latinos say they disapprove (67%). Approve Disapprove Don’t know “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 44% 42% 61% 43% 49 53 34 48 7 559 Likely Voters 49% 45 6 Job approval of the California Legislature today (30%) has also declined since January (34%), December (41%), and last March (41%), to levels not seen since October 2006 (30%). While Democrats (34%) today are more likely to approve of the legislature than independents (26%) or Republicans (23%), majorities across political parties express disapproval. And while majorities across regions also express disapproval, approval is highest in the Other Southern California region (34%) and lowest in the Central Valley (21%). Latinos are more likely than whites (36% to 28%) to approve of the legislature’s job performance. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Approve 30% 34% 23% 26% 25% Disapprove 55 52 71 60 64 Don’t know 15 14 6 14 11 More residents say they approve of their own assembly and senate representatives (42%) than the state legislature overall (30%). Still, this marks a decline in approval of their own legislators from December (51%) and last March (47%). Today, Democrats (49%) are much more likely than Republicans (38%) or independents (36%) to express approval of their own legislators. Other Southern California (43%) and San Francisco Bay Area residents (42%) are the most likely to say they approve, followed by Los Angeles (40%) and Central Valley residents (37%). Latinos (41%) and whites (42%) express similar levels of approval of their own legislators. March 2008 9 Californians and Their Government JOB PERFORMANCE RATINGS OF STATE ELECTED OFFICIALS (CONTINUED) Approve Disapprove Don’t know “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that the state legislators representing your assembly and senate districts are doing at this time?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind 42% 49% 38% 36% 43% 40 37 46 48 42 18 14 16 16 15 CALIFORNIA STATE BUDGET As news about the California state budget worsens and the projected budget deficit continues to grow, a solid majority of residents (68%) think the budget situation is a big problem and another 26 percent say it is somewhat of a problem. In January, 64 percent said the budget situation was a big problem. In January 2007, just 45 percent of Californians called the budget situation a big problem. Today, likely voters (79%) are much more likely than all residents (68%) to call the budget situation a big problem and large majorities across political parties hold this view (69% independents, 74% Democrats, 79% Republicans). Regionally, negativity is highest in the San Francisco Bay Area (72% big problem) and lowest in the Central Valley (66% big problem). Across racial/ethnic groups, whites (74% big problem) are far more pessimistic than Latinos (56% big problem). Belief that the budget situation is a big problem rises sharply as residents’ ages and education and income levels increase. Among those who believe the state faces bad economic times in the next year, 72 percent call the budget situation a big problem. “Do you think the state budget situation in California—that is, the balance between government spending and revenues—is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Big problem 68% 74% 79% 69% 79% Somewhat of a problem 26 21 18 24 18 Not a problem 3 224 2 Don’t know 3 313 1 Announcements of teacher layoffs and other potential or actual budget cuts have figured prominently in the news between our January and March surveys, and the percentage of residents saying they are very concerned about the effects of spending reductions in the governor’s budget plan has jumped 20 points during that time (from 36% in January to 56% today). Similar percentages of likely voters today (57%) are very concerned about spending reductions. An overwhelming majority of Democrats (71%) are very concerned, compared to 53 percent of independents and 41 percent of Republicans. San Francisco Bay Area residents (63%) are the most likely to be very concerned and Central Valley residents (52%) the least likely. Latinos are much more likely than whites (64% to 51%) and women are much more likely than men (63% to 49%) to be very concerned. Of those who call the budget situation a big problem, 62 percent are vey concerned about the effects of spending reductions. 10 PPIC Statewide Survey State Issues CALIFORNIA STATE BUDGET (CONTINUED) “Overall, how concerned are you about the effects of the spending reductions in the governor's budget plan?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Very concerned 56% 71% 41% 53% 57% Somewhat concerned 26 21 27 26 24 Not too concerned 10 6 15 13 10 Not at all concerned 7 2 16 7 8 Don’t know 1 - 11 1 How do Californians prefer to deal with the state’s sizeable budget gap? A plurality (42%) prefer a mix of spending cuts and tax increases, while 30 percent prefer spending cuts alone, 8 percent prefer tax increases alone, and 9 percent say it’s okay for the state to borrow money and run a budget deficit. The percentage saying spending cuts alone has declined by 12 points since December (42% to 30%), before the governor released his budget proposal, and by 7 points since January (37% to 30%). The percentage naming a mix of spending cuts and tax increases today (42%) is similar to January (41%), but has increased 6 points since December (36%). Nearly half of likely voters today (47%) say a combination approach is best, compared to 44 percent in January and 41 percent in December. Fifty-two percent of Democrats and 46 percent of independents prefer a mix of tax increases and spending cuts, while 50 percent of Republicans prefer spending cuts alone. Still, the percentage of Republicans preferring spending cuts alone has declined by 6 points since January (56% to 50%) and by 11 points since December (61% to 50%). Pluralities in all regional and demographic groups today prefer using a mix of spending cuts and tax increases. Of those who are very concerned about the effects of budget cuts, 48 percent prefer a mix of spending cuts and tax increases. “How would you prefer to deal with the state's budget gap?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind Mostly through spending cuts 30% 18% 50% 30% Mostly through tax increases Through a mix of spending cuts and tax increases Okay for the state to borrow money and run a budget deficit Other 8 42 9 3 13 3 7 52 35 46 7 4 10 343 Don’t know 8 744 Likely Voters 32% 9 47 5 3 4 When it comes to the overall state budget process, in terms of both revenue and spending, most residents (65%) and likely voters (70%) believe major changes are needed. Another 23 percent in both groups say minor changes are needed, while just 6 percent of residents and 4 percent of likely voters say the process is fine the way it is. At least two in three Democrats (66%), independents (67%), and Republicans (69%) believe major changes are needed in the budget process. Solid majorities across regional and other demographic groups agree that significant reform is needed and this view is more likely to be held by older and more educated residents than by others. Of those calling the current budget situation a big problem, 75 percent believe that major changes are needed. March 2008 11 Californians and Their Government TRUST IN STATE GOVERNMENT Californians continue to express low levels of trust in government. Only 32 percent say that they can trust state government to do what is right just about always (4%) or most of the time (28%). This level of trust was the same a year ago. Today, levels of trust across parties are low, with fewer than one in three Democrats (32%), independents (29%), and Republicans (26%) saying they trust state government at least most of the time. One in three or fewer across regions say they trust state government at least most of the time (33% Los Angeles, 32% Central Valley, 30% San Francisco Bay Area, 29% Other Southern California region). “How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Sacramento to do what is right?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Just about always 4% 3% 2% 4% 2% Most of the time 28 29 24 25 24 Only some of the time 59 62 66 57 65 None of the time (vol) 6 4 8 11 6 Don’t know 3 2-3 3 Californians’ distrust extends to state government’s fiscal efficiency as well. Nearly six in 10 Californians (57%) and likely voters (58%) say Sacramento wastes a lot of the money paid in taxes. These percentages are similar to last March (55% adults and likely voters). Republicans (67%) are more likely than independents (60%) and Democrats (53%) to say the government wastes a lot of money. Residents of the Central Valley (65%) and Los Angeles (61%) are more likely than those in the Other Southern California region (55%) or the San Francisco Bay Area (51%) to say waste in state government is high. “Do you think the people in state government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes, waste some of it, or don’t waste very much of it?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind A lot 57% 53% 67% 60% Some 33 37 29 30 Don’t waste very much 6 836 Don’t know 4 214 Likely Voters 58% 35 5 2 Distrust is also evident when residents are asked about the influence of interest groups in state government. Sixty-three percent of Californians say state government is pretty much run by a few big interests rather than for the benefit of everyone. Pessimism is similar to a year ago (64%). Today, about 60 percent or more of residents across regions and party and demographic groups say that state government is run by a few big interests. This belief is more widely held among whites (65%) than Latinos (58%). 12 PPIC Statewide Survey State Issues JUNE STATE PRIMARY—PROPOSITION 98 The June 3rd statewide primary election ballot includes two state propositions to change the government’s power of eminent domain. Proposition 98 would block state and local governments from taking private property to transfer it to another private party. It prohibits rent control and similar measures, and includes other changes. When read the ballot title and label of Proposition 98, 37 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 41 percent would vote no, and 22 percent are unsure. More Democrats and independents would vote no than yes, while more Republicans would vote yes than no. Likely voters in the Central Valley and the Other Southern California regions are divided, while more San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles likely voters would vote no than yes. Given the initiative’s restriction on rent control, renters are more likely to vote no than yes; homeowners are divided. “Proposition 98 is called ‘Eminent Domain Limits on Government Authority Initiative Constitutional Amendment.’ It bars state and local governments from taking or damaging private property for private uses. It prohibits rent control and similar measures, eliminates deference to government in property rights cases, and changes condemnation rules. Fiscal impact includes increased costs to many governments due to the measure’s restrictions. The net statewide fiscal effect, however, probably would not be significant. If the June primary election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 98?” Likely Voters Only Yes No Don’t Know All Likely voters 37% 41% 22% Democrat 29 49 22 Party Republican 45 31 24 Independent 36 41 23 Central Valley 40 40 20 Region San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles 32 42 26 36 42 22 Other Southern California 41 40 19 Homeownership status Own Rent 37 39 24 35 48 17 When asked about the concept of rent control, 53 percent of all likely voters say it is a good thing and 39 percent call it a bad thing. Most Democrats (61%), independents (55%), and renters (67%) call rent control a good thing, but fewer Republicans (40%) and homeowners (48%) agree. Positive views of rent control decline sharply with age. Of those who would vote yes on Proposition 98, 41 percent call rent control a good thing, while 61 percent of those who would vote no call it a good thing. “Do you think rent control—that is, the ability of local governments to set limits on how much rents can be increased each year—is a good thing or a bad thing?” Likely Voters Only All Likely Voters Dem Party Rep Ind Homeownership Status Own Rent Good thing 53% 61% 40% 55% 48% 67% Bad thing 39 29 55 33 43 26 Don’t know 8 10 5 12 9 7 March 2008 13 Californians and Their Government JUNE STATE PRIMARY—PROPOSITION 99 Proposition 99, a ballot initiative competing with Proposition 98, would bar government from taking a single-family home (including a condominium) to transfer the property to another private party. It would allow the use of eminent domain for public uses. If Proposition 99 were to pass with more votes than Proposition 98, then Proposition 99 would take precedence. When read the ballot title and label of Proposition 99, 53 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 27 percent say they would vote no, and 20 percent are undecided. At least half of likely voters across parties would vote yes. Across regions, this measure has more support than opposition; support is higher among likely voters in the Central Valley (61%) and the Other Southern California region (60%) than in Los Angeles or the San Francisco Bay Area (47% each). Both homeowners (54%) and renters (53%) say they would vote yes. “Proposition 99 is called ‘Eminent Domain Limits on Government Acquisition of Owner-Occupied Residence Initiative Constitutional Amendment.’ It bars the use of eminent domain to acquire an owner-occupied residence for conveyance to a private person or business entity. It creates exceptions for public works, public health and safety, and crime prevention. There would be no significant fiscal impact on state or local governments. If the June primary election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 99?” Likely Voters Only Yes No Don’t Know All Likely voters 53% 27% 20% Democrat 50 29 21 Party Republican 58 23 19 Independent 50 30 20 Central Valley 61 25 14 Region San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles 47 27 26 47 32 21 Other Southern California 60 24 16 Homeownership status Own Rent 54 26 20 53 27 20 Thirty-eight percent of likely voters say that the government’s power of eminent domain is in need of major changes, and another 33 percent say minor changes are needed. Large majorities of likely voters across parties and demographic groups think that at least minor changes are needed, with Republicans and those living in the Other Southern California and Central Valley regions more likely to say major changes are needed. Of those who believe eminent domain is in need of change, major or minor, support is higher for Proposition 99 (60% yes, 26% no) than for Proposition 98 (41% yes, 40% no). Likely Voters Only Major changes Minor changes Fine the way it is Don’t know “Do you think the government’s power of eminent domain—that is, the ability of government to take private property for government use—is in need of major changes, minor changes, or is it fine the way it is?” All Likely Voters Dem Party Rep Ind Homeownership Status Own Rent 38% 33% 42% 38% 37% 40% 33 34 34 33 35 30 15 17 12 12 15 15 14 16 12 17 13 15 14 PPIC Statewide Survey NATIONAL ISSUES KEY FINDINGS „ Mirroring their pessimism about the state, overwhelming majorities of residents think the country is headed in the wrong direction and will experience bad economic times during the next year. (page 16) „ About one in four Californians approve of the way President Bush is handling his job. One in three approve of the way Congress is handling its job, while more approve of Senators Boxer and Feinstein, House Speaker Pelosi, and their own representative. (pages 17, 18) „ Most residents say that they trust the federal government only some or none of the time, that the federal government is run by a few big interests, and that a lot of federal tax dollars are wasted. (page 19) „ Optimism about progress in Iraq remains low, but is higher than a year ago. Most residents say the nation should bring troops home as soon as possible. (page 20) „ Majorities of residents believe immigrants benefit California and that illegal immigrants who have been working here should be allowed to apply for work permits, be given a chance to keep their jobs and be able to apply for legal status. (page 21) „ Asked who could do a better job handling four key issues, likely voters prefer the Democratic Party to the Republican Party— more on the economy and health care than Iraq and immigration. (page 22) „ If the 2008 presidential election were held today, likely voters say they prefer Barack Obama over John McCain (49% to 40%), while a race between Hillary Clinton and McCain would be closer (46% to 43%). Likely voters give Obama higher favorability ratings than Clinton or McCain. (page 23) Approval Rating of Elected Federal Officials 70 Percent saying they approve 60 Percent all adults 50 44 41 43 40 30 20 10 0 Dianne Feinstein Barbara Boxer Nancy Pelosi Effect of Immigrants on California Benefit for their work, job skills Burden for using public services 70 60 54 54 56 56 58 60 59 50 46 Percent all adults 40 42 30 34 36 20 35 36 35 33 34 10 0 Apr Feb Dec 98 00 01 Feb Sep Sep Mar Mar 04 05 06 07 08 Opinions of Presidential Candidates 70 61 60 50 52 45 Favorable Unfavorable 49 45 Percent likely voters 40 34 30 20 10 0 Barack Obama Hillary Clinton John McCain 15 Californians and Their Government NATIONAL MOOD With high levels of anxiety about the state and its economy, how do Californians feel about the direction of the nation? About three in four adults (73%) and likely voters (75%) say that things in the United States are generally going in the wrong direction. This is a 10 point increase from June 2007 and is now at its highest point in the 10-year history of the PPIC Statewide Survey. Californians are as likely as adults nationwide to express pessimism about the direction of the country, according to a recent Associated Press/Ipsos poll (22% right direction, 73% wrong track). Today, Democrats (80%) and independents (77%) are much more likely than Republicans (60%) to say the nation is heading in the wrong direction. Over two in three residents across regions express pessimism, with residents of Los Angeles (76%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (75%) being most likely to do so, followed by residents in the Other Southern California region (71%) and the Central Valley (67%). About 70 percent or more across demographic groups hold this negative view. “Do you think things in the United States are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Right direction 22% 16% 33% 19% 21% Wrong direction 73 80 60 77 75 Don't know 54744 Californians’ pessimism about the state economy extends to the national level, with three in four residents (76%) and eight in 10 likely voters (82%) saying that during the next 12 months the United States will have bad times financially. This percentage marks a 23 point increase from last June (53%) and a 30 point increase from January 2007 (46%), and is the deepest level of pessimism on this measure in the history of the PPIC Statewide Survey. Today, 70 percent or more of residents across regional, party, gender, and racial/ethnic groups express a gloomy outlook about the national economy. Across parties, Democrats (84%) and independents (81%) are more negative than Republicans (74%). Residents of the San Francisco Bay Area (79%) are the most likely to hold this downbeat view, followed by residents in Los Angeles (76%), the Other Southern California region (76%), and the Central Valley (72%). Whites (81%) are much more likely than Latinos (70%) and homeowners (80%) are more likely than renters (71%) to hold this view. Pessimism about the nation’s economy increases with higher education and income levels. Good times Bad times Don't know “Turning to economic conditions, do you think that during the next 12 months the United States will have good times financially or bad times?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind 18% 14% 21% 14% 13% 76 84 74 81 82 62555 16 PPIC Statewide Survey National Issues JOB PERFORMANCE RATINGS OF FEDERAL ELECTED OFFICIALS President Bush’s job approval ratings have reached a new low among Californians: Only 24 percent of residents approve of the job he is doing, while seven in 10 disapprove (72%). Among likely voters, 27 percent approve of his performance, while 70 percent disapprove. The president’s approval ratings among all adults have dropped 5 points since December (29% to 24%). Californians are somewhat more disapproving of President Bush than are Americans nationwide, according to a March CBS News poll (29% approve, 64% disapprove). While a majority of Republicans (57%) approve of Bush’s performance, overwhelming majorities of Democrats (90%) and independents (78%) disapprove. Solid majorities of residents in all regions disapprove of the president’s job performance, with the most negative ratings in the San Francisco Bay Area (81%) and Los Angeles (76%). Latinos (78%) are much more likely than whites (67%) to disapprove of President Bush. Approve Disapprove Don't know “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling his job as president of the United States?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 24% 8% 57% 18% 72 90 39 78 4244 Likely Voters 27% 70 3 Specific ratings of President Bush’s performance in handling the situation in Iraq are similarly low, with 24 percent of adults and 31 percent of likely voters approving, and 72 percent of adults and 66 percent of likely voters disapproving. Californians are also somewhat more disapproving on this issue than are adults nationwide, according to the March CBS News poll (30% approve, 65% disapprove). In California today, President Bush’s approval ratings on handling Iraq are relatively unchanged since last March (23% March, 21% June, 24% September, 24% today). Compared to five years ago, President Bush’s approval ratings have fallen 22 points (46% approve, February 2003). What about Congress? Today, 33 percent of residents and 30 percent of likely voters approve of the way Congress is handling its job, while 55 percent of residents and 63 percent of likely voters disapprove. Approval ratings are relatively unchanged since June 2007 (33% June, 33% September, 31% December, 33% today). However, approval has dropped since January 2007 (42%), when the Democrats took control. Californians are much more likely to approve of the way Congress is handing its job than are adults nationwide, according to a March Gallup poll (21% approve, 71% disapprove). Across political parties, approval ratings are somewhat higher among Democrats (37%) than independents (29%) and Republicans (25%), and higher among Latinos (39%) than whites (30%). Disapproval ratings of Congress rise with increases in age, education, and income. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Approve 33% 37% 25% 29% 30% Disapprove 55 55 66 63 63 Don't know 12 8 9 8 7 March 2008 17 Californians and Their Government JOB PERFORMANCE RATINGS OF FEDERAL ELECTED OFFICIALS (CONTINUED) When it comes to rating their own elected officials in the U.S. House of Representatives, about half of all adults (47%) and likely voters (52%) approve. Democrats (56%) and Republicans (52%) are more likely than independents (39%) to approve. Today, residents’ approval ratings of their representatives are down slightly since December (51% to 47%) and down 8 points since last March (55% to 47%). Approve Disapprove Don't know “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the U.S. House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind 47% 56% 52% 39% 52% 30 25 30 37 32 23 19 18 24 16 California’s elected representatives in Washington fare better than President Bush and Congress as a whole. Forty-four percent of residents and 49 percent of likely voters approve of Senator Dianne Feinstein. She receives positive marks from most Democrats (63%), mixed reviews from independents (40% approve, 40% disapprove), and negative marks from most Republicans (55%). Senator Feinstein’s approval rating is down 10 points from last March (54% to 44%) and 5 points since September (49% to 44%). Senator Barbara Boxer receives positive ratings from four in 10 residents (41%) and likely voters (44%). She receives positive marks from most Democrats (67%), but more disapproving than approving marks from independents (43% to 36%) and Republicans (66% to 18%). Senator Boxer’s approval rating is down 9 points from last March (50% to 41%) and 4 points since September (45% to 41%). Forty-three percent of residents and likely voters approve of the way that Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is handling her job. Across parties, Democrats (62%) are much more likely to approve of her performance, while 61 percent of Republicans disapprove, and independents are more disapproving than approving (36% approve, 46% disapprove). Speaker Pelosi’s approval ratings have dropped by 9 points since last March (52% to 43%) and today’s ratings are similar to those in September (45% to 43%). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that __________ is handling her job?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind Voters Approve 44% 63% 31% 40% 49% Senator Dianne Feinstein Disapprove 33 20 55 40 38 Don't know 23 17 14 20 13 Approve 41 67 18 36 44 Senator Barbara Boxer Disapprove 35 17 66 43 43 Don't know 24 16 16 21 13 Approve 43 62 25 36 43 House Speaker Nancy Pelosi Disapprove 37 22 61 46 45 Don't know 20 16 14 18 12 18 PPIC Statewide Survey National Issues TRUST IN FEDERAL GOVERNMENT Californians continue to mistrust the federal government. Fewer than three in 10 adults (27%) and only two in 10 likely voters (20%) say they trust the government in Washington to do what is right just about always or most of the time. Levels of trust among all adults today are slightly higher than last September (23%) and are almost identical to last March (28%). Trust has decreased by 11 points since February 2003 (38% to 27%), just before the start of the war in Iraq, and is 19 points down from the PPIC Statewide Survey high point of 46 percent (January 2002), measured in our first survey following 9/11. Fewer than three in 10 Republicans (28%) and about two in 10 Democrats (22%) and independents (19%) say they can trust the federal government at least most of the time. Across regions, trust is higher in the Central Valley (32%), followed by Los Angeles (28%), the Other Southern California region (26%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (21%). Trust is higher among Latinos (39%) than whites (22%). “How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington today to do what is right?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Just about always 5% 3% 2% 4% 2% Most of the time 22 19 26 15 18 Only some of the time 64 69 66 71 71 None of the time (volunteered) 7 8 5 10 8 Don't know 211 - 1 More than six in 10 Californians (63%) and seven in 10 likely voters (71%) think the people in federal government waste a lot of tax money. Among all adults, today’s view is similar to last September (65%), but has declined since last March (68%). The belief that the federal government is wasteful has been greater than 60 percent each time we have asked this question since February 2004. Democrats (65%), independents (68%), and Republicans (70%) say the federal government wastes a lot of tax money. Residents of the Other Southern California region (66%) are the most likely to hold this negative view, followed by those in the San Francisco Bay Area (64%), Los Angeles (62%), and the Central Valley (60%). Whites (67%) are much more likely than Latinos (54%) to believe this. “Do you think the people in the federal government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes, waste some of it, or don’t waste very much of it?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind A lot 63% 65% 70% 68% 71% Some 30 30 27 25 26 Don’t waste very much 4 4 2 5 2 Don't know 31121 Two in three Californians (67%) and three in four likely voters (76%) say the federal government is pretty much run by a few big interests. Among all adults, this level of belief is slightly lower than last September (71%), and last March (70%). Today, Democrats (76%) and independents (74%) are more likely than Republicans (64%) to hold this view. Over six in 10 across regions hold this view, and whites (72%) are more likely than Latinos (54%) to say the federal government is pretty much run by a few big interests. March 2008 19 Californians and Their Government WAR IN IRAQ At the five-year anniversary of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, 64 percent of Californians say things are not going well there (27% not too well, 37% not at all well). Among likely voters, nearly six in 10 hold this view (27% not too well, 32% not at all well). Although Californians remain highly negative about the war, the number saying things are not going well has dropped 5 points since December (69% to 64%) and 10 points since September (74% to 64%). Californians are far more pessimistic than are adults nationwide (48% not too or not at all well), according to a similar question in a February Pew Research Center survey. In California, a majority of Republicans (69%) say things are going at least somewhat well, while a majority of Democrats (79%) and independents (68%) say things are not going well. Whites are considerably more positive about the war than are Latinos (43% to 20% very or somewhat well). Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Don't know “In general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 7% 3% 17% 5% 27 16 52 26 27 30 18 36 37 49 12 32 2211 Likely Voters 8% 31 27 32 2 Fifteen months after President Bush ordered the deployment of additional troops to Iraq, 37 percent of Californians say this troop surge has had no impact on the situation, while 34 percent say it has made things better. Likely voters are more likely to see improvement (45%) than to say it has had no impact (35%). Most Republicans (67%) and 41 percent of independents say the troop surge has made the situation better, while Democrats (46%) are more likely to see no impact. Whites give a more positive assessment than do Latinos (47% to 13% better). The number of adults saying the troop surge has made the situation better has increased by 9 points since last September (25% to 34%) and 16 points since last June (18% to 34%). Californians are not as optimistic in their assessment of the troop surge as adults are nationwide, according to the CBS News poll (42% better, 34% no impact, 13% worse). A solid majority of residents (58%) believe the U.S. should bring its troops home as soon as possible, while 38 percent believe troops should be kept in Iraq until the situation has stabilized. Likely voters are divided (48% keep until stable, 49% bring home as soon as possible). These opinions are similar to December. A majority of Democrats (73%) and independents (57%) say the U.S. should bring its troops home, while most Republicans (75%) say troops should stay until the situation is stable. Latinos (80%) are far more likely than whites (44%) to favor troop withdrawal. Californians are more likely than adults nationwide to favor bringing home troops as soon as possible, according to the February Pew Research Center survey (47% keep until stabilized, 49% bring home as soon as possible). “Do you think the U.S. should keep military troops in Iraq until the situation has stabilized, or do you think the U.S. should bring its troops home as soon as possible?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Keep in Iraq until stabilized 38% 22% 75% 41% 48% Bring home as soon as possible 58 73 22 57 49 Don't know 45323 20 PPIC Statewide Survey National Issues IMMIGRATION POLICY A majority of Californians (59%) believe immigrants are a benefit to California for their hard work and job skills, while 34 percent say they are a burden because they use public services. Half of likely voters (52%) say immigrants are a benefit, while 41 percent say they are a burden. Democrats (66%) and independents (51%) are more likely to see immigrants as a benefit to the state, while Republicans (60%) are more likely to consider them a burden. The belief that immigrants benefit the state has increased 13 points since we first asked this question in April 1998 (46%). Today, one issue in the immigration debate is whether to allow immigrants who are in the United States illegally to apply for work permits, which would allow them to stay and work here. Two-thirds of Californians (66%) and six in 10 likely voters (60%) think illegal immigrants should be allowed to apply for work permits. Across parties, a solid majority of Democrats (73%) and independents (62%) think they should be allowed to apply for work permits, while half of Republicans (50%) say they should not. Findings today are similar to those a year ago (64% should be allowed, 32% should not be allowed). Majorities in all regions and demographic groups favor allowing illegal immigrants the opportunity to apply for work permits, although Latinos (91%) are far more likely to favor this plan than whites (55%). “Should immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally be allowed to apply for work permits which would allow them to stay and work in the United States, or shouldn’t they be allowed to do that?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Should be allowed 66% 73% 48% 62% 60% Should not be allowed 31 23 50 36 37 Don't know 34223 Another issue in the immigration debate is how to handle illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the United States for at least two years. One plan would give them a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status. Seven in 10 Californians and 65 percent of likely voters think most illegal immigrants should be given a chance to keep their jobs and apply for legal status, while one quarter of residents and 32 percent of likely voters believe they should be deported back to their native countries. Residents’ support for allowing illegal immigrants a chance to keep their jobs has been similarly high since we began asking this question last year (74% June 2007, 72% December 2007, 72% today). While majorities across all political parties think illegal immigrants should have an opportunity to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status, Democrats (80%) and independents (72%) are more likely than Republicans (52%) to hold this view. Latinos (91%) are more likely than whites (64%) to agree. “If you had to choose, what do you think should happen to most illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the United States for at least two years—they should be given a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status, or they should be deported back to their native country?” Should be given a chance to keep jobs Should be deported All Adults 72% 25 Dem 80% 18 Party Rep 52% 45 Likely Voters Ind 72% 65% 26 32 Don't know 32323 March 2008 21 Californians and Their Government VIEWS ON POLITICAL PARTIES We asked which political party could do a better job in handling four key areas: the economy, the situation in Iraq, immigration, and health care. In each of these areas, likely voters see the Democratic Party as more capable than the Republican Party. The Democratic Party has a 32 point edge in handling health care (59% to 27%), a 13 point edge on the economy (50% to 37%), a 10 point edge on Iraq (48% to 38%), and a narrow 5 point edge on immigration (42% to 37%). Among all adults nationwide, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey, the Democratic Party outpaces the Republican Party by 30 points on health care (56% to 26%), 19 points on the economy (53% to 34%), 10 points on the situation in Iraq (47% to 37%), and 5 points on immigration (43% to 38%). California voters’ preferences tend to reflect their political affiliation: in each of the four areas, Democrats favor the Democratic Party and Republicans favor the G.O.P. Independents choose Democrats over Republicans in each area except immigration, where they are divided (34% Democratic Party, 34% Republican Party), although 22 percent volunteer that neither party could do a better job. Likely Voters Only The economy The situation in Iraq Immigration Health care “Which party could do a better job of handling __________?” All Likely voters Dem Party Rep Democratic Party 50% 82% 12% Republican Party 37 10 75 Both equally (volunteered) 213 Neither (volunteered) 6 4 7 Don't know 533 Democratic Party 48 78 11 Republican Party 38 12 77 Both equally (volunteered) 211 Neither (volunteered) 8 4 6 Don't know 455 Democratic Party 42 72 10 Republican Party 37 15 69 Both equally (volunteered) 323 Neither (volunteered) 11 6 13 Don't know 755 Democratic Party 59 89 24 Republican Party 27 5 57 Both equally (volunteered) 315 Neither (volunteered) 8 3 9 Don't know 325 Ind 46% 33 4 10 7 43 35 3 15 4 34 34 3 22 7 54 23 3 16 4 22 PPIC Statewide Survey National Issues 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION With the California presidential primary complete, how are Californians now viewing the presidential candidates? Six in 10 likely voters have a favorable opinion of Barack Obama (61%), while fewer have a favorable view of John McCain (49%) and Hillary Clinton (45%). Most Democrats have favorable impressions of Obama (78%) and Clinton (74%), while most Republicans have favorable impressions of McCain (75%). Among independent voters, Obama (57%) has a higher favorability rating than McCain (47%) or Clinton (35%). If the general election were held today, likely voters in California would favor Obama over McCain by 9 points (49% to 40%). Obama’s support among Democrats (78%) is high; McCain has similarly high support among Republicans (78%), and independents are divided. Obama leads McCain among women (50% to 37%), while men are divided (47% Obama, 44% McCain). Obama has higher support than McCain among Latinos (70% to 20%), while whites are divided (46% McCain, 43% Obama). A recent national USA Today/Gallup poll finds a McCain-Obama race a toss-up among likely voters (49% Obama, 47% McCain). “If the November 4th presidential election were being held today and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?” Likely Voters Only Barack Obama, John McCain, the Democrat the Republican Someone else (volunteered) Don’t Know All Likely voters Party Gender Latinos Democrat Republican Independent Men Women 49% 40% 78 12 13 78 44 42 47 44 50 37 70 20 4% 4 3 5 3 5 7 7% 6 6 9 6 8 3 Among likely voters in California, 46 percent would support Clinton and 43 percent would support McCain if the presidential election were held today. Clinton enjoys solid support among Democrats (80%), while McCain has solid support among Republicans (85%). Among independents, 44 percent would vote for McCain and 36 percent would vote for Clinton. Clinton outpolls McCain among women (54% to 37%), while McCain leads Clinton among men (49% to 37%). Latinos solidly favor Clinton (74% to 18%), while whites are more likely to back McCain (50% to 39%). A recent national USA Today/Gallup poll finds Clinton with a slight edge among likely voters (51% Clinton, 46% McCain). “If the November 4th presidential election were being held today and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?” Likely Voters Only Hillary Clinton, the Democrat John McCain, the Republican Someone else (vol) Don’t know All Likely voters Party Gender Latinos Democrat Republican Independent Men Women 46% 43% 4% 7% 80 11 3 6 8 85 3 4 36 44 5 15 37 49 5 9 54 37 4 5 74 18 3 5 March 2008 23 REGIONAL MAP 24 METHODOLOGY The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance in research and writing from Jennifer Paluch, project manager for this survey, and survey research associates Dean Bonner and Sonja Petek. This survey was conducted with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. We benefited from discussions about the current issues with PPIC staff, foundation staff and grantees, and other policy experts. The methods, questions, and content of this report were solely determined by Mark Baldassare and the survey staff. The findings in this report are based on a telephone survey of 2,002 California adult residents interviewed from March 11–18, 2008. Interviewing took place on weekday nights and weekend days, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible. Telephone numbers in the survey sample were called up to six times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Each interview took an average of 18 minutes to complete. Interviewing was conducted in English or Spanish. Accent on Languages translated the survey into Spanish with assistance from Renatta DeFever. Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas, Inc. conducted the telephone interviewing. We used recent U.S. Census and state data to compare the demographic characteristics of the survey sample with characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the census and state figures. The survey data in this report were statistically weighted to account for any demographic differences. The sampling error for the total sample of 2,002 adults is +/- 2 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 2 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger: For the 1,450 registered voters, it is +/- 2.5 percent; for the 1,077 likely voters, it is +/-3 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. We present results for four geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, and “Other Southern California” includes Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. Residents from other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters. Sample sizes for these less populated areas are not large enough to report separately. We present specific results for Latinos because they account for about 30 percent of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest growing voter groups. Sample sizes for African Americans and Asian Americans are not large enough for separate analysis. We compare the opinions of registered Democrats, Republicans, and independents (those who are registered as “decline to state”). We also include the responses of “likely voters”— those who are most likely to vote in the state’s elections based on past voting, current interest, and voting intentions. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey results to those in our earlier surveys and to those in national surveys by Associated Press/Ipsos, CBS News, Gallup, Pew Research Center, and USA Today/Gallup. 25 QUESTIONNAIRE AND RESULTS CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT March 11-18, 2008 2,002 California Adult Residents: English, Spanish MARGIN OF ERROR +/-2% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE 1. First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today? [code, do not read] 35% jobs, economy 13 education, schools 11 immigration, illegal immigration 8 state budget, deficit, taxes 5 gasoline prices, oil prices 5 housing costs, housing availability, subprime housing crisis 4 health care, health costs 2 environment, pollution 14 other 3 don’t know 2. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 26% right direction 63 wrong direction 11 don’t know 3. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 16% good times 76 bad times 8 don’t know 4. Would you say that California is in an economic recession or not? (if yes: Do you think it is in a serious, a moderate, or a mild recession?) 26% yes, serious recession 32 yes, moderate recession 14 yes, mild recession 22 no, not in a recession 6 don’t know 5. Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote in California? 72% yes [ask q5a] 27 no [skip to q6e] 1 don’t know [skip to q6e] 5a. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or as an independent? 42% Democrat [ask q6] 32 Republican [skip to q6a] 4 another party (specify) [skip to q7] 22 independent [skip to q6b] 6. Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 62% strong 34 not very strong 4 don’t know [skip to q7] 27 Californians and Their Government 6a. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 56% strong 38 not very strong 6 don’t know [skip to q7] 6b. Would you join a political party if it was a good reflection of your political views or do you prefer to be unaffiliated with any specific party? 31% join a political party 67 remain unaffiliated 2 don’t know 6c. And were you previously registered with a major party or have you always been an independent? 44% previously registered [ask q6d] 54 always been an independent [skip to q6e] 2 don’t know [skip to q6e] 6d. And what party were you previously registered with? [code, do not read] 51% Republican Party 42 Democratic Party 2 Green Party 5 other (specify) 6e. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party? 21% Republican Party 43 Democratic Party 29 neither (volunteered) 7 don’t know [delayed skip: if q5=no or don’t know, skip to q21] [responses recorded for questions 7 to 20 are for likely voters only] [rotate questions 7 and 8] 7. If the November 4th presidential election were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? [rotate names] 46% Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 43 John McCain, the Republican 4 someone else (volunteered) 7 don’t know 8. If the November 4th presidential election were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? [rotate names] 49% Barack Obama, the Democrat 40 John McCain, the Republican 4 someone else (volunteered) 7 don’t know Next, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following presidential candidates. [rotate questions 9 through 11] 9. How about Hillary Clinton? 45% favorable 52 unfavorable 3 don’t know/never heard of her (volunteered) 10.How about Barack Obama? 61% favorable 34 unfavorable 5 don’t know/never heard of him (volunteered) 11. How about John McCain? 49% favorable 45 unfavorable 6 don’t know/never heard of him (volunteered ) 28 PPIC Statewide Survey 12.How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2008 presidential election? 50% very closely 42 fairly closely 7 not too closely 1 not at all closely Next, please tell me if you think the [rotate] Republican Party [or] the Democratic Party could do a better job of handling each of these national issues. First, [rotate questions 13 to 16] 13.Which party could do a better job of handling health care? 59% Democratic Party 27 Republican Party 3 both equally (volunteered) 8 neither (volunteered) 3 don’t know 14.Which party could do a better job of handling the economy? 50% Democratic Party 37 Republican Party 2 both equally (volunteered) 6 neither (volunteered) 5 don’t know 15. Which party could do a better job of handling the situation in Iraq? 48% Democratic Party 38 Republican Party 2 both equally (volunteered) 8 neither (volunteered) 4 don’t know 16.Which party could do a better job of handling immigration? 42% Democratic Party 37 Republican Party 3 both equally (volunteered) 11 neither (volunteered) 7 don’t know Next, the June 3rd statewide primary election includes two statewide ballot initiatives. [rotate questions 17 and 18] Questionnaire and Results 17.Proposition 98 is called “Eminent Domain Limits on Government Authority Initiative Constitutional Amendment.” It bars state and local governments from taking or damaging private property for private uses. It prohibits rent control and similar measures, eliminates deference to government in property rights cases, and changes condemnation rules. Fiscal impact includes increased costs to many governments due to the measure’s restrictions. The net statewide fiscal effect, however, probably would not be significant. If the June primary election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 98? 37% yes 41 no 22 don’t know 18.Proposition 99 is called “Eminent Domain Limits on Government Acquisition of OwnerOccupied Residence Initiative Constitutional Amendment.” It bars the use of eminent domain to acquire an owner-occupied residence for conveyance to a private person or business entity. It creates exceptions for public works, public health and safety, and crime prevention. There would be no significant fiscal impact on state or local governments. If the June primary election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 99? 53% yes 27 no 20 don’t know [rotate questions 19 and 20] 19.Do you think rent control—that is, the ability of local governments to set limits on how much rents can be increased each year—is a good thing or a bad thing? 53% good thing 39 bad thing 8 don’t know March 2008 29 Californians and Their Government 20. Do you think the government’s power of eminent domain—that is, the ability of government to take private property for government use—is in need of major changes, minor changes, or is it fine the way it is? 38% major changes 33 minor changes 15 fine the way it is 14 don’t know 21.On another topic, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California? 44% approve 49 disapprove 7 don’t know 22.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job? 30% approve 55 disapprove 15 don’t know 23. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that the state legislators representing your assembly and senate districts are doing at this time? 42% approve 40 disapprove 18 don’t know 24.On another topic, do you think the state budget situation in California—that is, the balance between government spending and revenues—is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today? 68% big problem 26 somewhat of a problem 3 not a problem 3 don’t know Recently, Governor Schwarzenegger proposed a budget plan for the next fiscal year that includes spending cuts across all state agencies, including K-12 public education, higher education, health and human services, prisons and corrections, and state parks. The plan includes no new taxes. 25.Overall, how concerned are you about the effects of the spending reductions in the governor's budget plan? 56% very concerned 26 somewhat concerned 10 not too concerned 7 not at all concerned 1 don’t know 26.As you may know, the state government has an annual budget of around $100 billion dollars and currently faces a multi-billion dollar gap between spending and revenues. How would you prefer to deal with the state's budget gap—mostly through spending cuts, mostly through tax increases, through a mix of spending cuts and tax increases, or do you think that it is okay for the state to borrow money and run a budget deficit? 30% spending cuts 8 tax increases 42 mix of spending cuts and tax increases 9 okay to borrow money and run a budget deficit 3 other (specify) 8 don’t know 26a.Overall, do you think the state budget process in California, in terms of both revenues and spending, is in need of major changes, minor changes, or do you think it is fine the way it is? 65% major changes 23 minor changes 6 fine the way it is 6 don’t know 30 PPIC Statewide Survey 27.Changing topics, how much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Sacramento to do what is right? 4% just about always 28 most of the time 59 only some of the time 6 none of the time (volunteered) 3 don’t know 28.Would you say the state government is pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves, or that it is run for the benefit of all of the people? 63% a few big interests 26 benefit of all of the people 11 don’t know 29.Do you think the people in state government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes, waste some of it, or don’t waste very much of it? 57% a lot 33 some 6 don’t waste very much 4 don’t know 30.Changing topics, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling his job as president of the United States? 24% approve 72 disapprove 4 don’t know 31.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling the situation in Iraq? 24% approve 72 disapprove 4 don’t know [rotate questions 32 and 33] 32.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Dianne Feinstein is handling her job as U.S. senator? 44% approve 33 disapprove 23 don’t know Questionnaire and Results 33.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barbara Boxer is handling her job as U.S. senator? 41% approve 35 disapprove 24 don’t know 34.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job? 33% approve 55 disapprove 12 don’t know 35.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is handling her job? 43% approve 37 disapprove 20 don’t know 36.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the U.S. House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job? 47% approve 30 disapprove 23 don’t know 37.Do you think things in the United States are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 22% right direction 73 wrong direction 5 don’t know 38.Turning to economic conditions, do you think that during the next 12 months the United States will have good times financially or bad times? 18% good times 76 bad times 6 don’t know March 2008 31 Californians and Their Government 39.On another topic, people have different ideas about the government in Washington. How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington today to do what is right? 5% just about always 22 most of the time 64 only some of the time 7 none of the time (volunteered) 2 don’t know 40.Would you say the federal government is pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves, or that it is run for the benefit of all of the people? 67% a few big interests 26 benefit of all of the people 7 don’t know 41.Do you think the people in the federal government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes, waste some of it, or don’t waste very much of it? 63% a lot 30 some 4 don’t waste very much 3 don’t know 42.Changing topics, in general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq? 7% very well 27 somewhat well 27 not too well 37 not at all well 2 don’t know 43.Do you think the U.S. should keep military troops in Iraq until the situation has stabilized, or do you think the U.S. should bring its troops home as soon as possible? 38% keep in Iraq until stabilized 58 bring home as soon as possible 4 don’t know 44. As you may know, the U.S. has sent a troop surge to Iraq. From what you have heard or read, would you say this troop increase is making the situation in Iraq better, making it worse, or is it having no impact on the situation in Iraq so far? 34% better 22 worse 37 no impact 7 don’t know 45.On another topic, please indicate which statement comes closest to your own view —even if neither is exactly right. [rotate] [1] Immigrants today are a benefit to California because of their hard work and job skills [or] [2] Immigrants today are a burden to California because they use public services. 59% immigrants are a benefit to California 34 immigrants are a burden to California 7 don’t know 46.Should immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally be allowed to apply for work permits which would allow them to stay and work in the United States, or shouldn’t they be allowed to do that? 66% should be allowed 31 should not be allowed 3 don’t know 47.If you had to choose, what do you think should happen to most illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the United States for at least two years? [rotate] [1] They should be given a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status [or] [2] They should be deported back to their native country. 72% chance to keep jobs 25 deported 3 don’t know 32 PPIC Statewide Survey 48.Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 10% very liberal 20 somewhat liberal 31 middle-of-the-road 23 somewhat conservative 12 very conservative 4 don’t know 49.Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics? 26% great deal 40 fair amount 29 only a little 5 none [d1–d4: demographic questions] [Responses recorded for questions d5 to d5f are for parents of children ages 13 to 17 only.] Please answer the following questions, thinking about your oldest or only child between the ages of 13 and 17. D5. How important to you is it that your child participates in outdoor activities? 76% very important 20 somewhat important 2 not too important 1 not at all important 1 don’t know D5a. Thinking about the past three months, how satisfied are you with the amount of time that your child has spent on outdoor activities? 43% very satisfied 37 somewhat satisfied 14 somewhat dissatisfied 5 very dissatisfied 1 don’t know I’m going to read you some reasons people give for why children are not spending more of their time on outdoor activities. For each of the following, please tell me if this applies to your child. Questionnaire and Results [rotate d5b to d5e] D5b. How about too much time spent on television, computers, and electronic entertainment? 55% yes, applies to my child 44 no, does not apply to my child 1 don’t know D5c. How about safety or crime concerns in your area? 37% yes, applies to my child 61 no, does not apply to my child 2 don’t know D5d. How about the money or expense to participate in outdoor activities? 33% yes, applies to my child 64 no, does not apply to my child 3 don’t know D5e. How about a lack of outdoor activities in your area? 32% yes, applies to my child 66 no, does not apply to my child 2 don’t know D5f. Overall, how satisfied are you with the outdoor activities that are available to your child? 44% very satisfied 36 somewhat satisfied 13 somewhat dissatisfied 6 very dissatisfied 1 don’t know [d6–d15: demographic questions] More analysis of questions related to youth and outdoor activities can be found in our Just the Facts series. Please visit the Statewide Survey page at www.ppic.org to view this publication, “California's Youth and Outdoor Activities: Parents’ Perspectives.” March 2008 33 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ruben Barrales President and Chief Executive Officer San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce Angela Blackwell Founder and Chief Executive Officer PolicyLink Paul Brest President The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Mollyann Brodie Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Executive Director University of California, Washington Center James E. Canales President The James Irvine Foundation Jon Cohen Director of Polling The Washington Post Matthew K. Fong Special Counsel Sheppard, Mullin, Richter & Hampton, LLP Russell Hancock President and Chief Executive Officer Joint Venture Silicon Valley Network William Hauck President California Business Roundtable Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Carol S. Larson President and Chief Executive Officer The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Monica Lozano Publisher and Chief Executive Officer La Opinión Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Dan Rosenheim News Director KPIX-TV Carol Stogsdill President Stogsdill Consulting Cathy Taylor Vice President and Editorial Commentary Director Orange County Register Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Emeritus Great Valley Center The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA BOARD OF DIRECTORS Thomas C. Sutton, Chair Retired Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Pacific Life Insurance Company Mark Baldassare President and Chief Executive Officer Public Policy Institute of California Ruben Barrales President and Chief Executive Officer San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce Linda Griego President and Chief Executive Officer Griego Enterprises, Inc. Edward K. Hamilton Chairman Hamilton, Rabinovitz & Associates, Inc. Gary K. Hart Former State Senator and Secretary of Education State of California Walter B. Hewlett Director Center for Computer Assisted Research in the Humanities Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Leon E. Panetta Director The Leon & Sylvia Panetta Institute for Public Policy Ki Suh Park Design and Managing Partner Gruen Associates Constance L. Rice Co-Director The Advancement Project Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Emeritus Great Valley Center Copyright © 2008 Public Policy Institute of California All rights reserved San Francisco, CA Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source and the above copyright notice is included. PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, California 94111 phone: 415.291.4400 fax: 415.291.4401 PPIC Sacramento Center Senator Office Building 1121 L Street, Suite 801 Sacramento, California 95814 phone: 916.440.1120 fax: 916.440.1121 www.ppic.org survey@ppic.org" } ["___content":protected]=> string(102) "

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" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(109) "https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-march-2008/s_308mbs/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(8640) ["ID"]=> int(8640) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:39:26" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(3900) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(8) "S 308MBS" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(8) "s_308mbs" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(12) "S_308MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(7) "1517844" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(90331) "March 2008 The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research on major economic, social, and political issues. The institute’s goal is to raise public awareness and to give elected representatives and other decisionmakers a more informed basis for developing policies and programs. The institute’s research focuses on the underlying forces shaping California’s future, cutting across a wide range of public policy concerns, including economic development, education, environment and resources, governance, population, public finance, and social and health policy. PPIC is a private, nonprofit organization. It does not take or support positions on any ballot measures or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. PPIC was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. Mark Baldassare is President and Chief Executive Officer of PPIC. Thomas C. Sutton is Chair of the Board of Directors. PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, California 94111 phone: 415.291.4400 fax: 415.291.4401 PPIC Sacramento Center Senator Office Building 1121 L Street, Suite 801 Sacramento, California 95814 phone: 916.440.1120 fax: 916.440.1121 www.ppic.org survey@ppic.org TABLE OF CONTENTS About the Survey Press Release State Issues National Issues Regional Map Methodology Questionnaire and Results 1 3 7 15 24 25 27 ABOUT THE SURVEY The PPIC Statewide Survey provides policymakers, the media, and the general public with objective, advocacy-free information on the perceptions, opinions, and public policy preferences of California residents. Inaugurated in April 1998, this is the 84th PPIC Statewide Survey in a series that has generated a database that includes the responses of more than 178,000 Californians. This survey is the 28th in the Californians and Their Government series, which is conducted periodically to examine the social, economic, and political trends that influence public policy preferences and ballot choices. It is supported with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. The current survey seeks to raise public awareness, inform decisionmakers, and stimulate public discussion on state and national issues, the presidential election, and the state’s June primary election. The context for this survey includes the presidential primary season, a downturn in the national economy, and a multi-billion dollar gap between spending and revenues in the state budget. The survey examines Californians’ opinions of the economy and the overall direction of the state and the nation, their trust in the state and federal governments, and their perceptions of the elected officials who represent them in Sacramento and Washington. We also examine voters’ perceptions of candidates and major political parties, preferences in the presidential election, and their support for two eminent domain initiatives, Propositions 98 and 99, on the June ballot. We also analyze residents’ attitudes regarding immigration policy and the situation in Iraq. This report presents the responses of 2,002 California adult residents on these specific topics: „ State issues, including approval ratings for Governor Schwarzenegger and the state legislature; perceptions of the most important issue facing California today; opinions about the general direction of the state and the outlook for the state’s economy; trust in state government; support for Propositions 98 and 99 and the perceived need for change in eminent domain laws, and perceptions of rent control. We also examine attitudes about the state’s fiscal situation, including perceptions of the state budget, preferred methods for dealing with the state’s multi-billion dollar budget deficit, and perceived need for change in the budget process. „ National issues, including overall approval ratings for President Bush and his handling of the situation in Iraq; the general direction of the nation, the outlook for the U.S. economy, and trust in the federal government; overall approval ratings of Congress, Senators Boxer and Feinstein, House Speaker Pelosi, and respondents’ own congressional representatives; attitudes toward the situation in Iraq and immigration policy; perceptions of the major political parties’ handling of specific national issues, candidate favorability ratings, and preferences in the presidential election. „ The extent to which Californians—based on their political party affiliation, region of residence, race/ethnicity, and other demographics—may differ with regard to perceptions, attitudes, and preferences involving state and national issues. Copies of this report may be ordered online (www.ppic.org) or by phone (415-291-4400). For questions about the survey, please contact survey@ppic.org. View our searchable PPIC Statewide Survey database online at http://www.ppic.org/main/survAdvancedSearch.asp. 1 PRESS RELEASE Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: http://www.ppic.org/main/pressreleaseindex.asp PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT As Budget Angst Grows, Californians Take Stock of Fiscal Options And Take Aim at Elected Leaders MOST RESIDENTS BELIEVE STATE IS IN A RECESSION; OBAMA LEADS MCCAIN IN PRESIDENTIAL MATCHUP; CLINTON VS. MCCAIN A DRAW SAN FRANCISCO, California, March 26, 2008 — Pink slips for public school teachers and other reductions in services for vulnerable Californians are making state residents reconsider the wisdom of using spending cuts to balance the budget, according to a survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. Californians are becoming increasingly gloomy about California’s precarious fiscal condition and bleak economic outlook. And that gloom is taking its toll in their assessment of elected leaders. Nearly all Californians (94%) see the state budget situation as at least somewhat of a problem today. With the reality of state spending cuts hitting home, concern about the effects has grown dramatically. Today, 56 percent of Californians say they are very concerned about the effects of spending reductions in the governor’s budget plan, up 20 points since January (36%). The upshot is that Californians are now apparently more willing to consider tax increases as part of a solution to the budget crisis. When asked how they would most prefer to deal with the state’s budget gap, 42 percent of Californians choose a mix of spending cuts and tax increases, up from 36 percent in December. And fewer seem to view spending cuts alone as an option (down from 42% in December to 30% today). Democrats and Republicans remain wide apart on budget solutions—but they have edged closer. Most significantly, Republicans today are less likely than in December to support dealing with the budget gap mostly through spending cuts (down from 61% in December to 50% today) and are more likely to support a mix of spending cuts and tax increases (up from 25% to 35%). One thing all sides can agree on? Majorities of Democrats (66%), independents (67%), and Republicans (69%) believe major changes are needed in California’s budget process. “Californians are rethinking their priorities, given what they’ve learned about spending cuts over the past couple of months,” says PPIC president and CEO Mark Baldassare. “Beyond that, they are feeling financially squeezed as a result of the economic downturn. Any reduction in state services may only add to their sense of vulnerability.” IT’S A RECESSION, STUPID Although experts and elected officials are reluctant to utter the “r-word,” a solid majority of Californians (72%) say the state is already in economic recession. Over half (58%) believe that this recession is serious (26%) or moderate (32%). And they don’t expect it to get better any time soon: Most state residents (76%) expect bad economic times for California in the coming year—a 4 point increase since January (72%) and an 11 point increase since December (65%). Pessimism about the state’s economy is now at its highest point since the PPIC statewide survey was launched a decade ago. These growing fiscal anxieties only intensify broader concerns about the future: Nearly two in three Californians (63%) 3 Californians and Their Government today believe the state is generally headed in the wrong direction—a 9 point jump since January (54%) and approaching the level of pessimism residents felt in the fall of 2003. Things go from bad to worse when Californians consider the state of the nation. Seventy-three percent of state residents say that the nation is headed in the wrong direction, a 10 point increase from June 2007 (63%). Three in four residents (76%) also believe that the nation will experience bad times financially in the coming year, a 23-point increase from last June (53%). These are record-shattering levels of negativity about the direction and economy of the United States. Not surprisingly, an increasing number of Californians are saying that the economy (35%) is the most important issue facing the state today, followed by education (13%), immigration (11%), and the state budget (8%). Mention of the economy has nearly doubled since December (from 18% to 35%). AS THE ECONOMY GOES, SO GO APPROVAL RATINGS With the state facing a multibillion dollar shortfall in revenues and the national economy slumping, do Californians think their leaders are up to the challenge? Increasingly, the answer is no. At the state level, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s ratings continue to slip. Currently, 44 percent of state residents approve of the way he is handling his job, down 6 points since January (50%) and 13 points since December (57%). And the governor is not alone in this downward slide: Approval ratings of the state legislature are also lower today (30%) than they were in January (34%) and December (41%). Residents have a more positive perception of their own assembly and senate representatives (42%), but this rating is significantly lower than it was in December (51%). Feeding the dissatisfaction with state leaders is a strong distrust of state government: Most Californians say they can trust Sacramento to do what is right only some of the time (59%), believe a lot of their tax dollars are wasted (57%), and view state government as pretty much run by a few big interests (63%). Although things look bad for state elected officials, they could be worse. Job approval ratings for President George W. Bush have hit a new low: Only 24 percent of Californians approve of his performance as president, down 5 points since December (29%). Approval ratings for the U.S. Congress have remained relatively steady since December (from 31% to 33% today). However, Californians are slightly less likely today than they were in December to approve of their own representative’s performance (from 51% in December to 47% today). While California’s U.S. Senators fare far better than President Bush and the Congress as a whole, their popularity has also taken a hit. Forty-four percent of Californians approve of Senator Dianne Feinstein’s job performance, down 5 points since September (from 49% to 44%). Senator Barbara Boxer’s job approval rating has dipped slightly to 41 percent today from 45 percent in September. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi receives positive marks from 43 percent of state residents, similar to her approval rating in September (45%). And Californians express even deeper distrust of their federal government than they do of their state government. Two in three Californians say they can trust Washington to do what is right only some of the time (64%), believe a lot of their tax dollars are wasted (63%), and view federal government as pretty much run by a few big interests (67%). IRAQ: FIVE YEARS LATER At the five-year anniversary, President Bush gets low marks for his handling of the U.S. invasion of Iraq: 72 percent of Californians disapprove of the job he is doing. Although state residents remain highly negative about the war—64 percent say things are not going well for the United States—the number holding this view has dropped 5 points since December (69%) and 10 points since September (74%). Even so, at 64 percent, Californians are far more negative than adults nationally (48%) about the war. They are also less likely to see the troop surge as a success: Only 34 percent of Californians say the 4 PPIC Statewide Survey Press Release deployment of additional troops to Iraq has made the situation better, compared to 42 percent of adults nationwide. Despite the marginal improvement in attitudes about Iraq, the majority of Californians (58%) still believe the United States should bring its troops home as soon as possible (only 38 percent favor keeping forces there until the situation has stabilized). These opinions are similar to those in December (60% bring troops home, 35% keep them there). Californians (58%) are considerably more likely than adults nationwide (49%) to favor bringing troops home as soon as possible. BRIGHT SPOT? POSITIVE ATTITUDE ABOUT IMMIGRANTS Despite all the economic and political negativity, Californians are basically positive on immigration. A majority of state residents (59%) believe immigrants are a benefit to California because of their hard work and job skills, compared to 34 percent who say they are a burden because they use public services. Belief that immigrants benefit the state has increased substantially over the past decade: In 1998, only 46 percent of Californians held this view. “Conventional wisdom would predict that attitudes about immigrants would deteriorate as economic conditions worsen, but that hasn’t happened recently,” says Baldassare. What about attitudes toward illegal immigrants? Here again, state residents take a positive view. Twothirds (66%) think illegal immigrants should be allowed to apply for work permits that would let them stay and work in the United States, about the same percentage as one year ago (64%). Strong majorities of Democrats (73%), independents (62%), and likely voters (60%) believe that illegal immigrants should be allowed to apply for work permits, while Republicans are divided (48% should be allowed, 50% should not). Taking it a step further, seven in 10 Californians (72%) think most illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the United States for at least two years should be given a chance to keep their jobs and apply for legal status; only one-quarter (25%) believe these immigrants should be deported. This supportive attitude is shared by majorities across all political parties (Democrats 80%, independents 72%, Republicans 52%) and among likely voters (65%) and is unchanged since December (72%). MAKINGS OF A CLOSE PRESIDENTIAL RACE COME NOVEMBER? California’s likely voters see the Democratic Party as more capable than the Republican Party on four key national issues. They give Democrats a 32-point advantage in handling health care (59% Democratic Party to 27% Republican Party), a 13-point advantage in handling the economy (50% to 37%), a 10-point edge in handling the situation in Iraq (48% to 38%), and a 5-point edge in handling immigration (42% to 37%). So how do California voters feel about their potential choices in November? Six in 10 likely voters (61%) say they have a favorable opinion of Democratic Senator Barack Obama. Just under half have a favorable view of Republican Senator John McCain (49%) and Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton (45%). Most Democrats have a positive impression of Obama (78%) and Clinton (74%), and most Republicans have a favorable opinion of McCain (75%). Who wins the popularity contest among independent voters? More independents have a favorable view of Obama (57%) than of McCain (47%) or Clinton (35%). If the election were held today, California’s likely voters would favor Obama over McCain by 9 points (49% to 40%). However, Obama and McCain split the independent vote (44% Obama, 42% McCain). Between Clinton and McCain, the race is a toss up: 46 percent of likely voters in the state support Clinton and 43 percent support McCain. Among independent voters, McCain has an 8-point edge over Clinton (44% to 36%). Nearly all likely voters (92%) say they are following news about the presidential election. March 2008 5 Californians and Their Government PARSING EMINENT DOMAIN INITIATIVES Before we get to the nominating conventions and general election, however, California faces yet another primary. Two of the initiatives on the June 3rd primary election ballot—Propositions 98 and 99—would limit the government’s power of eminent domain. In fact, 71 percent of likely voters believe this power needs major (38%) or minor (33%) changes, but they are much more in favor of Proposition 99 to do that job. One reason may be that besides blocking state and local government from taking private property to transfer it to another private party, Proposition 98 also prohibits rent control. And 53 percent of likely voters believe that rent control is a good thing (39 percent think it’s bad). Proposition 98’s rent control limit may help explain why only 37 percent of likely voters would give it a yes vote (41 percent would vote no). In contrast, at least half of likely voters (53%) would vote yes on Proposition 99, which confines itself to barring government from taking an owner-occupied home to transfer the property to another private party. Republicans (45%) are more likely than Democrats (29%) and independents (36%) to favor Proposition 98, but they are also even more likely to support Proposition 99 (Republicans, 58%; Democrats and independents, 50% each). OTHER KEY FINDINGS Did you know that a majority of parents of children ages 13 to 17 (55%) think their kids don’t get enough outdoor time because they are occupied with television, computers, and electronic entertainment? For analysis of survey questions related to youth and outdoor activities, please visit the statewide survey page at www.ppic.org to view our latest Just the Facts publication, “California’s Youth and Outdoor Activities: Parents’ Perspectives.” ABOUT THE SURVEY This edition of the PPIC Statewide Survey is part of the Californians and Their Government series and is supported by funding from The James Irvine Foundation. The survey is intended to raise public awareness, inform decisionmakers, and stimulate public discussions about the social, economic, and political trends that influence Californians’ public policy preferences and ballot choices. Findings are based on a telephone survey of 2,002 California adult residents interviewed between March 11 and 18, 2008. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish. The sampling error for the total sample is +/2% and for the 1,077 likely voters is +/- 3%. For more information on methodology, see page 25. Mark Baldassare is president and CEO of PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has directed since 1998. PPIC is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research on major economic, social, and political issues. The institute was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. This report will appear on PPIC’s website (www.ppic.org) after 10 p.m. on March 26, 2008. ### 6 PPIC Statewide Survey STATE ISSUES KEY FINDINGS „ The economy (35%) is mentioned ahead of other concerns when Californians are asked to name the most important issue facing their state today. Seven in 10 residents say California is in a recession and three in four expect the state to have bad economic times during the next 12 months. (page 8) „ Large majorities of residents and likely voters believe the state is headed in the wrong direction. Californians give mixed job approval ratings for the governor, and only three in 10 approve of the legislature’s overall performance. Four in 10 adults and likely voters approve of the performance of their individual legislators. (pages 8-10) „ Large majorities of residents and likely voters think the budget situation is a big problem and are at least somewhat concerned about the effects of spending reductions in the governor’s budget plan. Nearly half of likely voters say they prefer to deal with the budget gap through a mix of spending cuts and tax increases. Solid majorities say major changes are needed in the state’s budget process. (pages 10, 11) „ Nearly six in 10 Californians say they can trust state government to do what is right only some of the time. The same share say state government wastes a lot of the money they pay in taxes. (page 12) „ Two initiatives to limit the government’s power of eminent domain are on the June primary ballot. Likely voters’ support for Proposition 99 (53% yes, 27% no) is higher than for Proposition 98 (37% yes, 41% no) when ballot titles and labels are read to them. Four in 10 say that major changes to eminent domain are needed. (pages 13, 14) Economic Outlook for California 100 Expect good times financially Expect bad times financially 80 78 71 76 Percent all adults 60 51 46 47 44 47 45 51 40 38 43 43 39 40 20 15 20 16 0 Feb Jan Feb Feb Feb Jan Mar Mar Mar 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Approval Ratings of State Elected Officials 100 Governor Legislature 80 Percent who approve Percent all adults 59 61 60 60 51 46 50 44 37 40 33 36 40 37 32 41 34 34 30 20 25 0 Jan Sep Jan Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 Assessing the Need for Change in the State Budget Process 6 6 23 All adults 65 Needs major changes Needs minor changes Fine the way it is Don't know 7 Californians and Their Government OVERALL MOOD As the nation’s economy continues to slump, Californians’ anxiety about the economy is evident. Thirtyfive percent of Californians name jobs and the economy as the most important issue facing people in the state today. Far fewer residents cite education and schools (13%), immigration (11%), or the state budget (8%). Mention of the economy has nearly doubled since December 2007 (18% to 35%). Today, Democrats (35%) and independents (31%) are more likely than Republicans (24%) to name the economy. Residents of the Central Valley (40%) are more likely than those in the Other Southern California region (34%), Los Angeles (34%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (32%) to name the economy as the most important issue. “Thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today?” Top four issues mentioned All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind Likely Voters Jobs, economy 35% 35% 24% 31% 31% Education, schools 13 17 10 16 16 Immigration, illegal immigration 11 5 22 13 12 State budget, deficit, taxes 8 8 13 7 12 Echoing their general economic concerns, the percentage of Californians who think the state will have bad times financially during the next 12 months has reached a new high—76 percent of residents hold this view. This is 4 percent higher than the previous high mark in January (72%). More than seven in 10 across regions and party, gender, and racial/ethnic groups share this negative view. With apprehension about the economy at record levels, seven in 10 residents say California is now in a serious (26%), moderate (32%), or mild recession (14%), while one in five (22%) say the state is not in a recession. Democrats (77%) are more likely than independents (68%) or Republicans (63%) to say the state is in a recession. Across regions, about 70 percent or more of Californians say the state is in a recession. The belief that California is in a serious recession is more likely to be held by Latinos (36%) than whites (20%), and by lower-income residents than by upper-income residents. “Would you say that California is in an economic recession or not? (if yes: Do you think it is in a serious, a moderate, or a mild recession?)” Yes, serious recession All Adults 26% Central Valley 27% Region San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles 23% 28% Other Southern California 26% Yes, moderate recession 32 34 32 30 30 Yes, mild recession 14 11 16 17 13 No, not in a recession 22 24 21 18 24 Don’t know 64 8 7 7 Likely Voters 24% 32 14 24 6 Californians are also pessimistic about the overall direction the state is heading. Only one in four (26%) think the state is headed in the right direction and 63 percent say the wrong direction. This level of pessimism about the direction of the state approaches levels held by residents in the fall of 2003 when the state was facing a serious economic downturn (66% August 2003, 67% September 2003, 67% October 2003). Today, about 60 percent or more of residents across regions and party, gender, and racial/ethnic groups express a negative outlook. 8 PPIC Statewide Survey State Issues JOB PERFORMANCE RATINGS OF STATE ELECTED OFFICIALS Amid the rising pessimism about the state’s direction and economic outlook, Governor Schwarzenegger’s job approval ratings continue to slip. Currently, 44 percent of residents approve of the way he is handling his job. His approval rating has dropped 6 points since January and 13 points since December. A year ago, 51 percent expressed approval. The last time the governor’s ratings were at today’s level was August 2006 (44%). At that time, his approval had been steadily increasing after reaching a low of 33 percent in October 2005, just before the special election that November. Likely voters today are more likely to approve (49%) than disapprove (45%) of the governor. Republicans are as likely to express approval (61%) as they were in January (62%), but approval among independents has dropped 12 points since January (from 55% to 43% today) and 6 points among Democrats (48% to 42%). Across all regions, fewer than half express approval, and approval is lowest in Los Angeles (35%). Although a majority of whites (52%) say they approve, a majority of Latinos say they disapprove (67%). Approve Disapprove Don’t know “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 44% 42% 61% 43% 49 53 34 48 7 559 Likely Voters 49% 45 6 Job approval of the California Legislature today (30%) has also declined since January (34%), December (41%), and last March (41%), to levels not seen since October 2006 (30%). While Democrats (34%) today are more likely to approve of the legislature than independents (26%) or Republicans (23%), majorities across political parties express disapproval. And while majorities across regions also express disapproval, approval is highest in the Other Southern California region (34%) and lowest in the Central Valley (21%). Latinos are more likely than whites (36% to 28%) to approve of the legislature’s job performance. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Approve 30% 34% 23% 26% 25% Disapprove 55 52 71 60 64 Don’t know 15 14 6 14 11 More residents say they approve of their own assembly and senate representatives (42%) than the state legislature overall (30%). Still, this marks a decline in approval of their own legislators from December (51%) and last March (47%). Today, Democrats (49%) are much more likely than Republicans (38%) or independents (36%) to express approval of their own legislators. Other Southern California (43%) and San Francisco Bay Area residents (42%) are the most likely to say they approve, followed by Los Angeles (40%) and Central Valley residents (37%). Latinos (41%) and whites (42%) express similar levels of approval of their own legislators. March 2008 9 Californians and Their Government JOB PERFORMANCE RATINGS OF STATE ELECTED OFFICIALS (CONTINUED) Approve Disapprove Don’t know “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that the state legislators representing your assembly and senate districts are doing at this time?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind 42% 49% 38% 36% 43% 40 37 46 48 42 18 14 16 16 15 CALIFORNIA STATE BUDGET As news about the California state budget worsens and the projected budget deficit continues to grow, a solid majority of residents (68%) think the budget situation is a big problem and another 26 percent say it is somewhat of a problem. In January, 64 percent said the budget situation was a big problem. In January 2007, just 45 percent of Californians called the budget situation a big problem. Today, likely voters (79%) are much more likely than all residents (68%) to call the budget situation a big problem and large majorities across political parties hold this view (69% independents, 74% Democrats, 79% Republicans). Regionally, negativity is highest in the San Francisco Bay Area (72% big problem) and lowest in the Central Valley (66% big problem). Across racial/ethnic groups, whites (74% big problem) are far more pessimistic than Latinos (56% big problem). Belief that the budget situation is a big problem rises sharply as residents’ ages and education and income levels increase. Among those who believe the state faces bad economic times in the next year, 72 percent call the budget situation a big problem. “Do you think the state budget situation in California—that is, the balance between government spending and revenues—is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Big problem 68% 74% 79% 69% 79% Somewhat of a problem 26 21 18 24 18 Not a problem 3 224 2 Don’t know 3 313 1 Announcements of teacher layoffs and other potential or actual budget cuts have figured prominently in the news between our January and March surveys, and the percentage of residents saying they are very concerned about the effects of spending reductions in the governor’s budget plan has jumped 20 points during that time (from 36% in January to 56% today). Similar percentages of likely voters today (57%) are very concerned about spending reductions. An overwhelming majority of Democrats (71%) are very concerned, compared to 53 percent of independents and 41 percent of Republicans. San Francisco Bay Area residents (63%) are the most likely to be very concerned and Central Valley residents (52%) the least likely. Latinos are much more likely than whites (64% to 51%) and women are much more likely than men (63% to 49%) to be very concerned. Of those who call the budget situation a big problem, 62 percent are vey concerned about the effects of spending reductions. 10 PPIC Statewide Survey State Issues CALIFORNIA STATE BUDGET (CONTINUED) “Overall, how concerned are you about the effects of the spending reductions in the governor's budget plan?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Very concerned 56% 71% 41% 53% 57% Somewhat concerned 26 21 27 26 24 Not too concerned 10 6 15 13 10 Not at all concerned 7 2 16 7 8 Don’t know 1 - 11 1 How do Californians prefer to deal with the state’s sizeable budget gap? A plurality (42%) prefer a mix of spending cuts and tax increases, while 30 percent prefer spending cuts alone, 8 percent prefer tax increases alone, and 9 percent say it’s okay for the state to borrow money and run a budget deficit. The percentage saying spending cuts alone has declined by 12 points since December (42% to 30%), before the governor released his budget proposal, and by 7 points since January (37% to 30%). The percentage naming a mix of spending cuts and tax increases today (42%) is similar to January (41%), but has increased 6 points since December (36%). Nearly half of likely voters today (47%) say a combination approach is best, compared to 44 percent in January and 41 percent in December. Fifty-two percent of Democrats and 46 percent of independents prefer a mix of tax increases and spending cuts, while 50 percent of Republicans prefer spending cuts alone. Still, the percentage of Republicans preferring spending cuts alone has declined by 6 points since January (56% to 50%) and by 11 points since December (61% to 50%). Pluralities in all regional and demographic groups today prefer using a mix of spending cuts and tax increases. Of those who are very concerned about the effects of budget cuts, 48 percent prefer a mix of spending cuts and tax increases. “How would you prefer to deal with the state's budget gap?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind Mostly through spending cuts 30% 18% 50% 30% Mostly through tax increases Through a mix of spending cuts and tax increases Okay for the state to borrow money and run a budget deficit Other 8 42 9 3 13 3 7 52 35 46 7 4 10 343 Don’t know 8 744 Likely Voters 32% 9 47 5 3 4 When it comes to the overall state budget process, in terms of both revenue and spending, most residents (65%) and likely voters (70%) believe major changes are needed. Another 23 percent in both groups say minor changes are needed, while just 6 percent of residents and 4 percent of likely voters say the process is fine the way it is. At least two in three Democrats (66%), independents (67%), and Republicans (69%) believe major changes are needed in the budget process. Solid majorities across regional and other demographic groups agree that significant reform is needed and this view is more likely to be held by older and more educated residents than by others. Of those calling the current budget situation a big problem, 75 percent believe that major changes are needed. March 2008 11 Californians and Their Government TRUST IN STATE GOVERNMENT Californians continue to express low levels of trust in government. Only 32 percent say that they can trust state government to do what is right just about always (4%) or most of the time (28%). This level of trust was the same a year ago. Today, levels of trust across parties are low, with fewer than one in three Democrats (32%), independents (29%), and Republicans (26%) saying they trust state government at least most of the time. One in three or fewer across regions say they trust state government at least most of the time (33% Los Angeles, 32% Central Valley, 30% San Francisco Bay Area, 29% Other Southern California region). “How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Sacramento to do what is right?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Just about always 4% 3% 2% 4% 2% Most of the time 28 29 24 25 24 Only some of the time 59 62 66 57 65 None of the time (vol) 6 4 8 11 6 Don’t know 3 2-3 3 Californians’ distrust extends to state government’s fiscal efficiency as well. Nearly six in 10 Californians (57%) and likely voters (58%) say Sacramento wastes a lot of the money paid in taxes. These percentages are similar to last March (55% adults and likely voters). Republicans (67%) are more likely than independents (60%) and Democrats (53%) to say the government wastes a lot of money. Residents of the Central Valley (65%) and Los Angeles (61%) are more likely than those in the Other Southern California region (55%) or the San Francisco Bay Area (51%) to say waste in state government is high. “Do you think the people in state government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes, waste some of it, or don’t waste very much of it?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind A lot 57% 53% 67% 60% Some 33 37 29 30 Don’t waste very much 6 836 Don’t know 4 214 Likely Voters 58% 35 5 2 Distrust is also evident when residents are asked about the influence of interest groups in state government. Sixty-three percent of Californians say state government is pretty much run by a few big interests rather than for the benefit of everyone. Pessimism is similar to a year ago (64%). Today, about 60 percent or more of residents across regions and party and demographic groups say that state government is run by a few big interests. This belief is more widely held among whites (65%) than Latinos (58%). 12 PPIC Statewide Survey State Issues JUNE STATE PRIMARY—PROPOSITION 98 The June 3rd statewide primary election ballot includes two state propositions to change the government’s power of eminent domain. Proposition 98 would block state and local governments from taking private property to transfer it to another private party. It prohibits rent control and similar measures, and includes other changes. When read the ballot title and label of Proposition 98, 37 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 41 percent would vote no, and 22 percent are unsure. More Democrats and independents would vote no than yes, while more Republicans would vote yes than no. Likely voters in the Central Valley and the Other Southern California regions are divided, while more San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles likely voters would vote no than yes. Given the initiative’s restriction on rent control, renters are more likely to vote no than yes; homeowners are divided. “Proposition 98 is called ‘Eminent Domain Limits on Government Authority Initiative Constitutional Amendment.’ It bars state and local governments from taking or damaging private property for private uses. It prohibits rent control and similar measures, eliminates deference to government in property rights cases, and changes condemnation rules. Fiscal impact includes increased costs to many governments due to the measure’s restrictions. The net statewide fiscal effect, however, probably would not be significant. If the June primary election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 98?” Likely Voters Only Yes No Don’t Know All Likely voters 37% 41% 22% Democrat 29 49 22 Party Republican 45 31 24 Independent 36 41 23 Central Valley 40 40 20 Region San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles 32 42 26 36 42 22 Other Southern California 41 40 19 Homeownership status Own Rent 37 39 24 35 48 17 When asked about the concept of rent control, 53 percent of all likely voters say it is a good thing and 39 percent call it a bad thing. Most Democrats (61%), independents (55%), and renters (67%) call rent control a good thing, but fewer Republicans (40%) and homeowners (48%) agree. Positive views of rent control decline sharply with age. Of those who would vote yes on Proposition 98, 41 percent call rent control a good thing, while 61 percent of those who would vote no call it a good thing. “Do you think rent control—that is, the ability of local governments to set limits on how much rents can be increased each year—is a good thing or a bad thing?” Likely Voters Only All Likely Voters Dem Party Rep Ind Homeownership Status Own Rent Good thing 53% 61% 40% 55% 48% 67% Bad thing 39 29 55 33 43 26 Don’t know 8 10 5 12 9 7 March 2008 13 Californians and Their Government JUNE STATE PRIMARY—PROPOSITION 99 Proposition 99, a ballot initiative competing with Proposition 98, would bar government from taking a single-family home (including a condominium) to transfer the property to another private party. It would allow the use of eminent domain for public uses. If Proposition 99 were to pass with more votes than Proposition 98, then Proposition 99 would take precedence. When read the ballot title and label of Proposition 99, 53 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 27 percent say they would vote no, and 20 percent are undecided. At least half of likely voters across parties would vote yes. Across regions, this measure has more support than opposition; support is higher among likely voters in the Central Valley (61%) and the Other Southern California region (60%) than in Los Angeles or the San Francisco Bay Area (47% each). Both homeowners (54%) and renters (53%) say they would vote yes. “Proposition 99 is called ‘Eminent Domain Limits on Government Acquisition of Owner-Occupied Residence Initiative Constitutional Amendment.’ It bars the use of eminent domain to acquire an owner-occupied residence for conveyance to a private person or business entity. It creates exceptions for public works, public health and safety, and crime prevention. There would be no significant fiscal impact on state or local governments. If the June primary election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 99?” Likely Voters Only Yes No Don’t Know All Likely voters 53% 27% 20% Democrat 50 29 21 Party Republican 58 23 19 Independent 50 30 20 Central Valley 61 25 14 Region San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles 47 27 26 47 32 21 Other Southern California 60 24 16 Homeownership status Own Rent 54 26 20 53 27 20 Thirty-eight percent of likely voters say that the government’s power of eminent domain is in need of major changes, and another 33 percent say minor changes are needed. Large majorities of likely voters across parties and demographic groups think that at least minor changes are needed, with Republicans and those living in the Other Southern California and Central Valley regions more likely to say major changes are needed. Of those who believe eminent domain is in need of change, major or minor, support is higher for Proposition 99 (60% yes, 26% no) than for Proposition 98 (41% yes, 40% no). Likely Voters Only Major changes Minor changes Fine the way it is Don’t know “Do you think the government’s power of eminent domain—that is, the ability of government to take private property for government use—is in need of major changes, minor changes, or is it fine the way it is?” All Likely Voters Dem Party Rep Ind Homeownership Status Own Rent 38% 33% 42% 38% 37% 40% 33 34 34 33 35 30 15 17 12 12 15 15 14 16 12 17 13 15 14 PPIC Statewide Survey NATIONAL ISSUES KEY FINDINGS „ Mirroring their pessimism about the state, overwhelming majorities of residents think the country is headed in the wrong direction and will experience bad economic times during the next year. (page 16) „ About one in four Californians approve of the way President Bush is handling his job. One in three approve of the way Congress is handling its job, while more approve of Senators Boxer and Feinstein, House Speaker Pelosi, and their own representative. (pages 17, 18) „ Most residents say that they trust the federal government only some or none of the time, that the federal government is run by a few big interests, and that a lot of federal tax dollars are wasted. (page 19) „ Optimism about progress in Iraq remains low, but is higher than a year ago. Most residents say the nation should bring troops home as soon as possible. (page 20) „ Majorities of residents believe immigrants benefit California and that illegal immigrants who have been working here should be allowed to apply for work permits, be given a chance to keep their jobs and be able to apply for legal status. (page 21) „ Asked who could do a better job handling four key issues, likely voters prefer the Democratic Party to the Republican Party— more on the economy and health care than Iraq and immigration. (page 22) „ If the 2008 presidential election were held today, likely voters say they prefer Barack Obama over John McCain (49% to 40%), while a race between Hillary Clinton and McCain would be closer (46% to 43%). Likely voters give Obama higher favorability ratings than Clinton or McCain. (page 23) Approval Rating of Elected Federal Officials 70 Percent saying they approve 60 Percent all adults 50 44 41 43 40 30 20 10 0 Dianne Feinstein Barbara Boxer Nancy Pelosi Effect of Immigrants on California Benefit for their work, job skills Burden for using public services 70 60 54 54 56 56 58 60 59 50 46 Percent all adults 40 42 30 34 36 20 35 36 35 33 34 10 0 Apr Feb Dec 98 00 01 Feb Sep Sep Mar Mar 04 05 06 07 08 Opinions of Presidential Candidates 70 61 60 50 52 45 Favorable Unfavorable 49 45 Percent likely voters 40 34 30 20 10 0 Barack Obama Hillary Clinton John McCain 15 Californians and Their Government NATIONAL MOOD With high levels of anxiety about the state and its economy, how do Californians feel about the direction of the nation? About three in four adults (73%) and likely voters (75%) say that things in the United States are generally going in the wrong direction. This is a 10 point increase from June 2007 and is now at its highest point in the 10-year history of the PPIC Statewide Survey. Californians are as likely as adults nationwide to express pessimism about the direction of the country, according to a recent Associated Press/Ipsos poll (22% right direction, 73% wrong track). Today, Democrats (80%) and independents (77%) are much more likely than Republicans (60%) to say the nation is heading in the wrong direction. Over two in three residents across regions express pessimism, with residents of Los Angeles (76%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (75%) being most likely to do so, followed by residents in the Other Southern California region (71%) and the Central Valley (67%). About 70 percent or more across demographic groups hold this negative view. “Do you think things in the United States are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Right direction 22% 16% 33% 19% 21% Wrong direction 73 80 60 77 75 Don't know 54744 Californians’ pessimism about the state economy extends to the national level, with three in four residents (76%) and eight in 10 likely voters (82%) saying that during the next 12 months the United States will have bad times financially. This percentage marks a 23 point increase from last June (53%) and a 30 point increase from January 2007 (46%), and is the deepest level of pessimism on this measure in the history of the PPIC Statewide Survey. Today, 70 percent or more of residents across regional, party, gender, and racial/ethnic groups express a gloomy outlook about the national economy. Across parties, Democrats (84%) and independents (81%) are more negative than Republicans (74%). Residents of the San Francisco Bay Area (79%) are the most likely to hold this downbeat view, followed by residents in Los Angeles (76%), the Other Southern California region (76%), and the Central Valley (72%). Whites (81%) are much more likely than Latinos (70%) and homeowners (80%) are more likely than renters (71%) to hold this view. Pessimism about the nation’s economy increases with higher education and income levels. Good times Bad times Don't know “Turning to economic conditions, do you think that during the next 12 months the United States will have good times financially or bad times?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind 18% 14% 21% 14% 13% 76 84 74 81 82 62555 16 PPIC Statewide Survey National Issues JOB PERFORMANCE RATINGS OF FEDERAL ELECTED OFFICIALS President Bush’s job approval ratings have reached a new low among Californians: Only 24 percent of residents approve of the job he is doing, while seven in 10 disapprove (72%). Among likely voters, 27 percent approve of his performance, while 70 percent disapprove. The president’s approval ratings among all adults have dropped 5 points since December (29% to 24%). Californians are somewhat more disapproving of President Bush than are Americans nationwide, according to a March CBS News poll (29% approve, 64% disapprove). While a majority of Republicans (57%) approve of Bush’s performance, overwhelming majorities of Democrats (90%) and independents (78%) disapprove. Solid majorities of residents in all regions disapprove of the president’s job performance, with the most negative ratings in the San Francisco Bay Area (81%) and Los Angeles (76%). Latinos (78%) are much more likely than whites (67%) to disapprove of President Bush. Approve Disapprove Don't know “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling his job as president of the United States?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 24% 8% 57% 18% 72 90 39 78 4244 Likely Voters 27% 70 3 Specific ratings of President Bush’s performance in handling the situation in Iraq are similarly low, with 24 percent of adults and 31 percent of likely voters approving, and 72 percent of adults and 66 percent of likely voters disapproving. Californians are also somewhat more disapproving on this issue than are adults nationwide, according to the March CBS News poll (30% approve, 65% disapprove). In California today, President Bush’s approval ratings on handling Iraq are relatively unchanged since last March (23% March, 21% June, 24% September, 24% today). Compared to five years ago, President Bush’s approval ratings have fallen 22 points (46% approve, February 2003). What about Congress? Today, 33 percent of residents and 30 percent of likely voters approve of the way Congress is handling its job, while 55 percent of residents and 63 percent of likely voters disapprove. Approval ratings are relatively unchanged since June 2007 (33% June, 33% September, 31% December, 33% today). However, approval has dropped since January 2007 (42%), when the Democrats took control. Californians are much more likely to approve of the way Congress is handing its job than are adults nationwide, according to a March Gallup poll (21% approve, 71% disapprove). Across political parties, approval ratings are somewhat higher among Democrats (37%) than independents (29%) and Republicans (25%), and higher among Latinos (39%) than whites (30%). Disapproval ratings of Congress rise with increases in age, education, and income. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Approve 33% 37% 25% 29% 30% Disapprove 55 55 66 63 63 Don't know 12 8 9 8 7 March 2008 17 Californians and Their Government JOB PERFORMANCE RATINGS OF FEDERAL ELECTED OFFICIALS (CONTINUED) When it comes to rating their own elected officials in the U.S. House of Representatives, about half of all adults (47%) and likely voters (52%) approve. Democrats (56%) and Republicans (52%) are more likely than independents (39%) to approve. Today, residents’ approval ratings of their representatives are down slightly since December (51% to 47%) and down 8 points since last March (55% to 47%). Approve Disapprove Don't know “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the U.S. House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind 47% 56% 52% 39% 52% 30 25 30 37 32 23 19 18 24 16 California’s elected representatives in Washington fare better than President Bush and Congress as a whole. Forty-four percent of residents and 49 percent of likely voters approve of Senator Dianne Feinstein. She receives positive marks from most Democrats (63%), mixed reviews from independents (40% approve, 40% disapprove), and negative marks from most Republicans (55%). Senator Feinstein’s approval rating is down 10 points from last March (54% to 44%) and 5 points since September (49% to 44%). Senator Barbara Boxer receives positive ratings from four in 10 residents (41%) and likely voters (44%). She receives positive marks from most Democrats (67%), but more disapproving than approving marks from independents (43% to 36%) and Republicans (66% to 18%). Senator Boxer’s approval rating is down 9 points from last March (50% to 41%) and 4 points since September (45% to 41%). Forty-three percent of residents and likely voters approve of the way that Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is handling her job. Across parties, Democrats (62%) are much more likely to approve of her performance, while 61 percent of Republicans disapprove, and independents are more disapproving than approving (36% approve, 46% disapprove). Speaker Pelosi’s approval ratings have dropped by 9 points since last March (52% to 43%) and today’s ratings are similar to those in September (45% to 43%). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that __________ is handling her job?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind Voters Approve 44% 63% 31% 40% 49% Senator Dianne Feinstein Disapprove 33 20 55 40 38 Don't know 23 17 14 20 13 Approve 41 67 18 36 44 Senator Barbara Boxer Disapprove 35 17 66 43 43 Don't know 24 16 16 21 13 Approve 43 62 25 36 43 House Speaker Nancy Pelosi Disapprove 37 22 61 46 45 Don't know 20 16 14 18 12 18 PPIC Statewide Survey National Issues TRUST IN FEDERAL GOVERNMENT Californians continue to mistrust the federal government. Fewer than three in 10 adults (27%) and only two in 10 likely voters (20%) say they trust the government in Washington to do what is right just about always or most of the time. Levels of trust among all adults today are slightly higher than last September (23%) and are almost identical to last March (28%). Trust has decreased by 11 points since February 2003 (38% to 27%), just before the start of the war in Iraq, and is 19 points down from the PPIC Statewide Survey high point of 46 percent (January 2002), measured in our first survey following 9/11. Fewer than three in 10 Republicans (28%) and about two in 10 Democrats (22%) and independents (19%) say they can trust the federal government at least most of the time. Across regions, trust is higher in the Central Valley (32%), followed by Los Angeles (28%), the Other Southern California region (26%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (21%). Trust is higher among Latinos (39%) than whites (22%). “How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington today to do what is right?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Just about always 5% 3% 2% 4% 2% Most of the time 22 19 26 15 18 Only some of the time 64 69 66 71 71 None of the time (volunteered) 7 8 5 10 8 Don't know 211 - 1 More than six in 10 Californians (63%) and seven in 10 likely voters (71%) think the people in federal government waste a lot of tax money. Among all adults, today’s view is similar to last September (65%), but has declined since last March (68%). The belief that the federal government is wasteful has been greater than 60 percent each time we have asked this question since February 2004. Democrats (65%), independents (68%), and Republicans (70%) say the federal government wastes a lot of tax money. Residents of the Other Southern California region (66%) are the most likely to hold this negative view, followed by those in the San Francisco Bay Area (64%), Los Angeles (62%), and the Central Valley (60%). Whites (67%) are much more likely than Latinos (54%) to believe this. “Do you think the people in the federal government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes, waste some of it, or don’t waste very much of it?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind A lot 63% 65% 70% 68% 71% Some 30 30 27 25 26 Don’t waste very much 4 4 2 5 2 Don't know 31121 Two in three Californians (67%) and three in four likely voters (76%) say the federal government is pretty much run by a few big interests. Among all adults, this level of belief is slightly lower than last September (71%), and last March (70%). Today, Democrats (76%) and independents (74%) are more likely than Republicans (64%) to hold this view. Over six in 10 across regions hold this view, and whites (72%) are more likely than Latinos (54%) to say the federal government is pretty much run by a few big interests. March 2008 19 Californians and Their Government WAR IN IRAQ At the five-year anniversary of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, 64 percent of Californians say things are not going well there (27% not too well, 37% not at all well). Among likely voters, nearly six in 10 hold this view (27% not too well, 32% not at all well). Although Californians remain highly negative about the war, the number saying things are not going well has dropped 5 points since December (69% to 64%) and 10 points since September (74% to 64%). Californians are far more pessimistic than are adults nationwide (48% not too or not at all well), according to a similar question in a February Pew Research Center survey. In California, a majority of Republicans (69%) say things are going at least somewhat well, while a majority of Democrats (79%) and independents (68%) say things are not going well. Whites are considerably more positive about the war than are Latinos (43% to 20% very or somewhat well). Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Don't know “In general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 7% 3% 17% 5% 27 16 52 26 27 30 18 36 37 49 12 32 2211 Likely Voters 8% 31 27 32 2 Fifteen months after President Bush ordered the deployment of additional troops to Iraq, 37 percent of Californians say this troop surge has had no impact on the situation, while 34 percent say it has made things better. Likely voters are more likely to see improvement (45%) than to say it has had no impact (35%). Most Republicans (67%) and 41 percent of independents say the troop surge has made the situation better, while Democrats (46%) are more likely to see no impact. Whites give a more positive assessment than do Latinos (47% to 13% better). The number of adults saying the troop surge has made the situation better has increased by 9 points since last September (25% to 34%) and 16 points since last June (18% to 34%). Californians are not as optimistic in their assessment of the troop surge as adults are nationwide, according to the CBS News poll (42% better, 34% no impact, 13% worse). A solid majority of residents (58%) believe the U.S. should bring its troops home as soon as possible, while 38 percent believe troops should be kept in Iraq until the situation has stabilized. Likely voters are divided (48% keep until stable, 49% bring home as soon as possible). These opinions are similar to December. A majority of Democrats (73%) and independents (57%) say the U.S. should bring its troops home, while most Republicans (75%) say troops should stay until the situation is stable. Latinos (80%) are far more likely than whites (44%) to favor troop withdrawal. Californians are more likely than adults nationwide to favor bringing home troops as soon as possible, according to the February Pew Research Center survey (47% keep until stabilized, 49% bring home as soon as possible). “Do you think the U.S. should keep military troops in Iraq until the situation has stabilized, or do you think the U.S. should bring its troops home as soon as possible?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Keep in Iraq until stabilized 38% 22% 75% 41% 48% Bring home as soon as possible 58 73 22 57 49 Don't know 45323 20 PPIC Statewide Survey National Issues IMMIGRATION POLICY A majority of Californians (59%) believe immigrants are a benefit to California for their hard work and job skills, while 34 percent say they are a burden because they use public services. Half of likely voters (52%) say immigrants are a benefit, while 41 percent say they are a burden. Democrats (66%) and independents (51%) are more likely to see immigrants as a benefit to the state, while Republicans (60%) are more likely to consider them a burden. The belief that immigrants benefit the state has increased 13 points since we first asked this question in April 1998 (46%). Today, one issue in the immigration debate is whether to allow immigrants who are in the United States illegally to apply for work permits, which would allow them to stay and work here. Two-thirds of Californians (66%) and six in 10 likely voters (60%) think illegal immigrants should be allowed to apply for work permits. Across parties, a solid majority of Democrats (73%) and independents (62%) think they should be allowed to apply for work permits, while half of Republicans (50%) say they should not. Findings today are similar to those a year ago (64% should be allowed, 32% should not be allowed). Majorities in all regions and demographic groups favor allowing illegal immigrants the opportunity to apply for work permits, although Latinos (91%) are far more likely to favor this plan than whites (55%). “Should immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally be allowed to apply for work permits which would allow them to stay and work in the United States, or shouldn’t they be allowed to do that?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Should be allowed 66% 73% 48% 62% 60% Should not be allowed 31 23 50 36 37 Don't know 34223 Another issue in the immigration debate is how to handle illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the United States for at least two years. One plan would give them a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status. Seven in 10 Californians and 65 percent of likely voters think most illegal immigrants should be given a chance to keep their jobs and apply for legal status, while one quarter of residents and 32 percent of likely voters believe they should be deported back to their native countries. Residents’ support for allowing illegal immigrants a chance to keep their jobs has been similarly high since we began asking this question last year (74% June 2007, 72% December 2007, 72% today). While majorities across all political parties think illegal immigrants should have an opportunity to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status, Democrats (80%) and independents (72%) are more likely than Republicans (52%) to hold this view. Latinos (91%) are more likely than whites (64%) to agree. “If you had to choose, what do you think should happen to most illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the United States for at least two years—they should be given a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status, or they should be deported back to their native country?” Should be given a chance to keep jobs Should be deported All Adults 72% 25 Dem 80% 18 Party Rep 52% 45 Likely Voters Ind 72% 65% 26 32 Don't know 32323 March 2008 21 Californians and Their Government VIEWS ON POLITICAL PARTIES We asked which political party could do a better job in handling four key areas: the economy, the situation in Iraq, immigration, and health care. In each of these areas, likely voters see the Democratic Party as more capable than the Republican Party. The Democratic Party has a 32 point edge in handling health care (59% to 27%), a 13 point edge on the economy (50% to 37%), a 10 point edge on Iraq (48% to 38%), and a narrow 5 point edge on immigration (42% to 37%). Among all adults nationwide, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey, the Democratic Party outpaces the Republican Party by 30 points on health care (56% to 26%), 19 points on the economy (53% to 34%), 10 points on the situation in Iraq (47% to 37%), and 5 points on immigration (43% to 38%). California voters’ preferences tend to reflect their political affiliation: in each of the four areas, Democrats favor the Democratic Party and Republicans favor the G.O.P. Independents choose Democrats over Republicans in each area except immigration, where they are divided (34% Democratic Party, 34% Republican Party), although 22 percent volunteer that neither party could do a better job. Likely Voters Only The economy The situation in Iraq Immigration Health care “Which party could do a better job of handling __________?” All Likely voters Dem Party Rep Democratic Party 50% 82% 12% Republican Party 37 10 75 Both equally (volunteered) 213 Neither (volunteered) 6 4 7 Don't know 533 Democratic Party 48 78 11 Republican Party 38 12 77 Both equally (volunteered) 211 Neither (volunteered) 8 4 6 Don't know 455 Democratic Party 42 72 10 Republican Party 37 15 69 Both equally (volunteered) 323 Neither (volunteered) 11 6 13 Don't know 755 Democratic Party 59 89 24 Republican Party 27 5 57 Both equally (volunteered) 315 Neither (volunteered) 8 3 9 Don't know 325 Ind 46% 33 4 10 7 43 35 3 15 4 34 34 3 22 7 54 23 3 16 4 22 PPIC Statewide Survey National Issues 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION With the California presidential primary complete, how are Californians now viewing the presidential candidates? Six in 10 likely voters have a favorable opinion of Barack Obama (61%), while fewer have a favorable view of John McCain (49%) and Hillary Clinton (45%). Most Democrats have favorable impressions of Obama (78%) and Clinton (74%), while most Republicans have favorable impressions of McCain (75%). Among independent voters, Obama (57%) has a higher favorability rating than McCain (47%) or Clinton (35%). If the general election were held today, likely voters in California would favor Obama over McCain by 9 points (49% to 40%). Obama’s support among Democrats (78%) is high; McCain has similarly high support among Republicans (78%), and independents are divided. Obama leads McCain among women (50% to 37%), while men are divided (47% Obama, 44% McCain). Obama has higher support than McCain among Latinos (70% to 20%), while whites are divided (46% McCain, 43% Obama). A recent national USA Today/Gallup poll finds a McCain-Obama race a toss-up among likely voters (49% Obama, 47% McCain). “If the November 4th presidential election were being held today and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?” Likely Voters Only Barack Obama, John McCain, the Democrat the Republican Someone else (volunteered) Don’t Know All Likely voters Party Gender Latinos Democrat Republican Independent Men Women 49% 40% 78 12 13 78 44 42 47 44 50 37 70 20 4% 4 3 5 3 5 7 7% 6 6 9 6 8 3 Among likely voters in California, 46 percent would support Clinton and 43 percent would support McCain if the presidential election were held today. Clinton enjoys solid support among Democrats (80%), while McCain has solid support among Republicans (85%). Among independents, 44 percent would vote for McCain and 36 percent would vote for Clinton. Clinton outpolls McCain among women (54% to 37%), while McCain leads Clinton among men (49% to 37%). Latinos solidly favor Clinton (74% to 18%), while whites are more likely to back McCain (50% to 39%). A recent national USA Today/Gallup poll finds Clinton with a slight edge among likely voters (51% Clinton, 46% McCain). “If the November 4th presidential election were being held today and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?” Likely Voters Only Hillary Clinton, the Democrat John McCain, the Republican Someone else (vol) Don’t know All Likely voters Party Gender Latinos Democrat Republican Independent Men Women 46% 43% 4% 7% 80 11 3 6 8 85 3 4 36 44 5 15 37 49 5 9 54 37 4 5 74 18 3 5 March 2008 23 REGIONAL MAP 24 METHODOLOGY The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance in research and writing from Jennifer Paluch, project manager for this survey, and survey research associates Dean Bonner and Sonja Petek. This survey was conducted with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. We benefited from discussions about the current issues with PPIC staff, foundation staff and grantees, and other policy experts. The methods, questions, and content of this report were solely determined by Mark Baldassare and the survey staff. The findings in this report are based on a telephone survey of 2,002 California adult residents interviewed from March 11–18, 2008. Interviewing took place on weekday nights and weekend days, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible. Telephone numbers in the survey sample were called up to six times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Each interview took an average of 18 minutes to complete. Interviewing was conducted in English or Spanish. Accent on Languages translated the survey into Spanish with assistance from Renatta DeFever. Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas, Inc. conducted the telephone interviewing. We used recent U.S. Census and state data to compare the demographic characteristics of the survey sample with characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the census and state figures. The survey data in this report were statistically weighted to account for any demographic differences. The sampling error for the total sample of 2,002 adults is +/- 2 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 2 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger: For the 1,450 registered voters, it is +/- 2.5 percent; for the 1,077 likely voters, it is +/-3 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. We present results for four geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, and “Other Southern California” includes Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. Residents from other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters. Sample sizes for these less populated areas are not large enough to report separately. We present specific results for Latinos because they account for about 30 percent of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest growing voter groups. Sample sizes for African Americans and Asian Americans are not large enough for separate analysis. We compare the opinions of registered Democrats, Republicans, and independents (those who are registered as “decline to state”). We also include the responses of “likely voters”— those who are most likely to vote in the state’s elections based on past voting, current interest, and voting intentions. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey results to those in our earlier surveys and to those in national surveys by Associated Press/Ipsos, CBS News, Gallup, Pew Research Center, and USA Today/Gallup. 25 QUESTIONNAIRE AND RESULTS CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT March 11-18, 2008 2,002 California Adult Residents: English, Spanish MARGIN OF ERROR +/-2% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE 1. First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today? [code, do not read] 35% jobs, economy 13 education, schools 11 immigration, illegal immigration 8 state budget, deficit, taxes 5 gasoline prices, oil prices 5 housing costs, housing availability, subprime housing crisis 4 health care, health costs 2 environment, pollution 14 other 3 don’t know 2. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 26% right direction 63 wrong direction 11 don’t know 3. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 16% good times 76 bad times 8 don’t know 4. Would you say that California is in an economic recession or not? (if yes: Do you think it is in a serious, a moderate, or a mild recession?) 26% yes, serious recession 32 yes, moderate recession 14 yes, mild recession 22 no, not in a recession 6 don’t know 5. Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote in California? 72% yes [ask q5a] 27 no [skip to q6e] 1 don’t know [skip to q6e] 5a. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or as an independent? 42% Democrat [ask q6] 32 Republican [skip to q6a] 4 another party (specify) [skip to q7] 22 independent [skip to q6b] 6. Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 62% strong 34 not very strong 4 don’t know [skip to q7] 27 Californians and Their Government 6a. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 56% strong 38 not very strong 6 don’t know [skip to q7] 6b. Would you join a political party if it was a good reflection of your political views or do you prefer to be unaffiliated with any specific party? 31% join a political party 67 remain unaffiliated 2 don’t know 6c. And were you previously registered with a major party or have you always been an independent? 44% previously registered [ask q6d] 54 always been an independent [skip to q6e] 2 don’t know [skip to q6e] 6d. And what party were you previously registered with? [code, do not read] 51% Republican Party 42 Democratic Party 2 Green Party 5 other (specify) 6e. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party? 21% Republican Party 43 Democratic Party 29 neither (volunteered) 7 don’t know [delayed skip: if q5=no or don’t know, skip to q21] [responses recorded for questions 7 to 20 are for likely voters only] [rotate questions 7 and 8] 7. If the November 4th presidential election were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? [rotate names] 46% Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 43 John McCain, the Republican 4 someone else (volunteered) 7 don’t know 8. If the November 4th presidential election were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? [rotate names] 49% Barack Obama, the Democrat 40 John McCain, the Republican 4 someone else (volunteered) 7 don’t know Next, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following presidential candidates. [rotate questions 9 through 11] 9. How about Hillary Clinton? 45% favorable 52 unfavorable 3 don’t know/never heard of her (volunteered) 10.How about Barack Obama? 61% favorable 34 unfavorable 5 don’t know/never heard of him (volunteered) 11. How about John McCain? 49% favorable 45 unfavorable 6 don’t know/never heard of him (volunteered ) 28 PPIC Statewide Survey 12.How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2008 presidential election? 50% very closely 42 fairly closely 7 not too closely 1 not at all closely Next, please tell me if you think the [rotate] Republican Party [or] the Democratic Party could do a better job of handling each of these national issues. First, [rotate questions 13 to 16] 13.Which party could do a better job of handling health care? 59% Democratic Party 27 Republican Party 3 both equally (volunteered) 8 neither (volunteered) 3 don’t know 14.Which party could do a better job of handling the economy? 50% Democratic Party 37 Republican Party 2 both equally (volunteered) 6 neither (volunteered) 5 don’t know 15. Which party could do a better job of handling the situation in Iraq? 48% Democratic Party 38 Republican Party 2 both equally (volunteered) 8 neither (volunteered) 4 don’t know 16.Which party could do a better job of handling immigration? 42% Democratic Party 37 Republican Party 3 both equally (volunteered) 11 neither (volunteered) 7 don’t know Next, the June 3rd statewide primary election includes two statewide ballot initiatives. [rotate questions 17 and 18] Questionnaire and Results 17.Proposition 98 is called “Eminent Domain Limits on Government Authority Initiative Constitutional Amendment.” It bars state and local governments from taking or damaging private property for private uses. It prohibits rent control and similar measures, eliminates deference to government in property rights cases, and changes condemnation rules. Fiscal impact includes increased costs to many governments due to the measure’s restrictions. The net statewide fiscal effect, however, probably would not be significant. If the June primary election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 98? 37% yes 41 no 22 don’t know 18.Proposition 99 is called “Eminent Domain Limits on Government Acquisition of OwnerOccupied Residence Initiative Constitutional Amendment.” It bars the use of eminent domain to acquire an owner-occupied residence for conveyance to a private person or business entity. It creates exceptions for public works, public health and safety, and crime prevention. There would be no significant fiscal impact on state or local governments. If the June primary election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 99? 53% yes 27 no 20 don’t know [rotate questions 19 and 20] 19.Do you think rent control—that is, the ability of local governments to set limits on how much rents can be increased each year—is a good thing or a bad thing? 53% good thing 39 bad thing 8 don’t know March 2008 29 Californians and Their Government 20. Do you think the government’s power of eminent domain—that is, the ability of government to take private property for government use—is in need of major changes, minor changes, or is it fine the way it is? 38% major changes 33 minor changes 15 fine the way it is 14 don’t know 21.On another topic, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California? 44% approve 49 disapprove 7 don’t know 22.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job? 30% approve 55 disapprove 15 don’t know 23. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that the state legislators representing your assembly and senate districts are doing at this time? 42% approve 40 disapprove 18 don’t know 24.On another topic, do you think the state budget situation in California—that is, the balance between government spending and revenues—is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today? 68% big problem 26 somewhat of a problem 3 not a problem 3 don’t know Recently, Governor Schwarzenegger proposed a budget plan for the next fiscal year that includes spending cuts across all state agencies, including K-12 public education, higher education, health and human services, prisons and corrections, and state parks. The plan includes no new taxes. 25.Overall, how concerned are you about the effects of the spending reductions in the governor's budget plan? 56% very concerned 26 somewhat concerned 10 not too concerned 7 not at all concerned 1 don’t know 26.As you may know, the state government has an annual budget of around $100 billion dollars and currently faces a multi-billion dollar gap between spending and revenues. How would you prefer to deal with the state's budget gap—mostly through spending cuts, mostly through tax increases, through a mix of spending cuts and tax increases, or do you think that it is okay for the state to borrow money and run a budget deficit? 30% spending cuts 8 tax increases 42 mix of spending cuts and tax increases 9 okay to borrow money and run a budget deficit 3 other (specify) 8 don’t know 26a.Overall, do you think the state budget process in California, in terms of both revenues and spending, is in need of major changes, minor changes, or do you think it is fine the way it is? 65% major changes 23 minor changes 6 fine the way it is 6 don’t know 30 PPIC Statewide Survey 27.Changing topics, how much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Sacramento to do what is right? 4% just about always 28 most of the time 59 only some of the time 6 none of the time (volunteered) 3 don’t know 28.Would you say the state government is pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves, or that it is run for the benefit of all of the people? 63% a few big interests 26 benefit of all of the people 11 don’t know 29.Do you think the people in state government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes, waste some of it, or don’t waste very much of it? 57% a lot 33 some 6 don’t waste very much 4 don’t know 30.Changing topics, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling his job as president of the United States? 24% approve 72 disapprove 4 don’t know 31.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling the situation in Iraq? 24% approve 72 disapprove 4 don’t know [rotate questions 32 and 33] 32.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Dianne Feinstein is handling her job as U.S. senator? 44% approve 33 disapprove 23 don’t know Questionnaire and Results 33.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barbara Boxer is handling her job as U.S. senator? 41% approve 35 disapprove 24 don’t know 34.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job? 33% approve 55 disapprove 12 don’t know 35.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is handling her job? 43% approve 37 disapprove 20 don’t know 36.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the U.S. House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job? 47% approve 30 disapprove 23 don’t know 37.Do you think things in the United States are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 22% right direction 73 wrong direction 5 don’t know 38.Turning to economic conditions, do you think that during the next 12 months the United States will have good times financially or bad times? 18% good times 76 bad times 6 don’t know March 2008 31 Californians and Their Government 39.On another topic, people have different ideas about the government in Washington. How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington today to do what is right? 5% just about always 22 most of the time 64 only some of the time 7 none of the time (volunteered) 2 don’t know 40.Would you say the federal government is pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves, or that it is run for the benefit of all of the people? 67% a few big interests 26 benefit of all of the people 7 don’t know 41.Do you think the people in the federal government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes, waste some of it, or don’t waste very much of it? 63% a lot 30 some 4 don’t waste very much 3 don’t know 42.Changing topics, in general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq? 7% very well 27 somewhat well 27 not too well 37 not at all well 2 don’t know 43.Do you think the U.S. should keep military troops in Iraq until the situation has stabilized, or do you think the U.S. should bring its troops home as soon as possible? 38% keep in Iraq until stabilized 58 bring home as soon as possible 4 don’t know 44. As you may know, the U.S. has sent a troop surge to Iraq. From what you have heard or read, would you say this troop increase is making the situation in Iraq better, making it worse, or is it having no impact on the situation in Iraq so far? 34% better 22 worse 37 no impact 7 don’t know 45.On another topic, please indicate which statement comes closest to your own view —even if neither is exactly right. [rotate] [1] Immigrants today are a benefit to California because of their hard work and job skills [or] [2] Immigrants today are a burden to California because they use public services. 59% immigrants are a benefit to California 34 immigrants are a burden to California 7 don’t know 46.Should immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally be allowed to apply for work permits which would allow them to stay and work in the United States, or shouldn’t they be allowed to do that? 66% should be allowed 31 should not be allowed 3 don’t know 47.If you had to choose, what do you think should happen to most illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the United States for at least two years? [rotate] [1] They should be given a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status [or] [2] They should be deported back to their native country. 72% chance to keep jobs 25 deported 3 don’t know 32 PPIC Statewide Survey 48.Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 10% very liberal 20 somewhat liberal 31 middle-of-the-road 23 somewhat conservative 12 very conservative 4 don’t know 49.Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics? 26% great deal 40 fair amount 29 only a little 5 none [d1–d4: demographic questions] [Responses recorded for questions d5 to d5f are for parents of children ages 13 to 17 only.] Please answer the following questions, thinking about your oldest or only child between the ages of 13 and 17. D5. How important to you is it that your child participates in outdoor activities? 76% very important 20 somewhat important 2 not too important 1 not at all important 1 don’t know D5a. Thinking about the past three months, how satisfied are you with the amount of time that your child has spent on outdoor activities? 43% very satisfied 37 somewhat satisfied 14 somewhat dissatisfied 5 very dissatisfied 1 don’t know I’m going to read you some reasons people give for why children are not spending more of their time on outdoor activities. For each of the following, please tell me if this applies to your child. Questionnaire and Results [rotate d5b to d5e] D5b. How about too much time spent on television, computers, and electronic entertainment? 55% yes, applies to my child 44 no, does not apply to my child 1 don’t know D5c. How about safety or crime concerns in your area? 37% yes, applies to my child 61 no, does not apply to my child 2 don’t know D5d. How about the money or expense to participate in outdoor activities? 33% yes, applies to my child 64 no, does not apply to my child 3 don’t know D5e. How about a lack of outdoor activities in your area? 32% yes, applies to my child 66 no, does not apply to my child 2 don’t know D5f. Overall, how satisfied are you with the outdoor activities that are available to your child? 44% very satisfied 36 somewhat satisfied 13 somewhat dissatisfied 6 very dissatisfied 1 don’t know [d6–d15: demographic questions] More analysis of questions related to youth and outdoor activities can be found in our Just the Facts series. Please visit the Statewide Survey page at www.ppic.org to view this publication, “California's Youth and Outdoor Activities: Parents’ Perspectives.” March 2008 33 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ruben Barrales President and Chief Executive Officer San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce Angela Blackwell Founder and Chief Executive Officer PolicyLink Paul Brest President The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Mollyann Brodie Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Executive Director University of California, Washington Center James E. Canales President The James Irvine Foundation Jon Cohen Director of Polling The Washington Post Matthew K. Fong Special Counsel Sheppard, Mullin, Richter & Hampton, LLP Russell Hancock President and Chief Executive Officer Joint Venture Silicon Valley Network William Hauck President California Business Roundtable Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Carol S. Larson President and Chief Executive Officer The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Monica Lozano Publisher and Chief Executive Officer La Opinión Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Dan Rosenheim News Director KPIX-TV Carol Stogsdill President Stogsdill Consulting Cathy Taylor Vice President and Editorial Commentary Director Orange County Register Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Emeritus Great Valley Center The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA BOARD OF DIRECTORS Thomas C. Sutton, Chair Retired Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Pacific Life Insurance Company Mark Baldassare President and Chief Executive Officer Public Policy Institute of California Ruben Barrales President and Chief Executive Officer San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce Linda Griego President and Chief Executive Officer Griego Enterprises, Inc. Edward K. Hamilton Chairman Hamilton, Rabinovitz & Associates, Inc. Gary K. Hart Former State Senator and Secretary of Education State of California Walter B. Hewlett Director Center for Computer Assisted Research in the Humanities Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Leon E. Panetta Director The Leon & Sylvia Panetta Institute for Public Policy Ki Suh Park Design and Managing Partner Gruen Associates Constance L. Rice Co-Director The Advancement Project Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Emeritus Great Valley Center Copyright © 2008 Public Policy Institute of California All rights reserved San Francisco, CA Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source and the above copyright notice is included. PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, California 94111 phone: 415.291.4400 fax: 415.291.4401 PPIC Sacramento Center Senator Office Building 1121 L Street, Suite 801 Sacramento, California 95814 phone: 916.440.1120 fax: 916.440.1121 www.ppic.org survey@ppic.org" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 09:39:26" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(8) "s_308mbs" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:39:26" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 09:39:26" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["guid"]=> string(50) "http://148.62.4.17/wp-content/uploads/S_308MBS.pdf" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_mime_type"]=> string(15) "application/pdf" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" ["status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["attachment_authors"]=> bool(false) }