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PPIC is a public charity. It does not take or support positions on any ballot measures or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political pa rties or candidates for public office. Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source. Research publications reflect the views of the authors and do no t necessarily reflect the views of the staff, officers, or board of directors of the Public Policy Institute of California. PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 3 CONTACT Linda Strean 415 -291 -4412 Serina Correa 415 -291 -4417 News Release EMBARGOED: Do not publish or broadcast until 9:00 PDT on Wednesday , May 25 , 2016 . Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: www.ppic.org/main/pressreleaseindex.asp PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: Clinton, Sanders in Close Race— Each Leads Trump in Fall Matchup HARRIS, SANCHEZ LEAD SENATE CONTEST, WITH NEARLY A THIRD OF LI KELY VOTERS UNDECIDED SAN FRANCISCO, May 25, 2016— Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are in a tight race in the Democratic presidential primary, while Donald Trump has the support of most Republican primary likely voters. In potential November matchups, Trump trails both Clinton and Sanders. These are among the key findings in a statewide survey release d today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. Among Democratic primary likely voters, 46 percent support Clinton and 44 percent support Sanders. These voters include Democrats and independents who say they will vote in the Democratic primary. Clinton has a slight lead over Sanders among registered Democrats (49% to 41%). Voters age 45 and older are more likely to support Clinton (59%), while younger voters are more likely to favor Sanders (66%). Both men (46% Sanders, 42% Clinton) and women (49% Clinton, 42% Sanders) are divided. Asked if they would vote for Trump or someone else, most Republican primary likely voters (67%) choose Trump , while 26 percent say they would vote for someone else. Men (72%) are more likely than women (62%) to say they would vote for Trump. In a fall presidential matchup, Clinton has support from 49 percent of likely voters , while 39 percent favor Trump , and another 11 percent would vote for someone else or are undecided. Women support Clinton by a wide margin (61% to 30%) , and men are more likely to favor Trump (49% to 38% Clinton). I n a matchup between Sanders and Trump, 53 percent of likely voters favor Sa nders, 36 percent support Trump, and 11 percent would vote for someone else or are undecided. Sanders has much more support than Trump among women (61% to 28%), but men are more divided (45% Sanders, 43% Trump). Compared to Clinton , Sanders performs bette r against Trump among independents (61% Sanders, 51% Clinton) and among younger voters (77% Sanders, 66% Clinton). Among Democratic primary likely voters, 85 percent of those who support Clinton in the primary would vote for Sanders against Trump in the fall, while 75 percent of Sanders supporters would choose Clinton over Trump. Fewer than half of California’s likely voters (42%) are satisfied with their choice of presidential candidates, lower than in May 2012 (57%). While most Democrats (53%) today are satisfied, just over a third of Republicans (36%) and independents (35%) are. Satisfaction among Republican likely voters has fallen each month since the survey began asking th is question in December 2015. PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 4 “California's June primary finds voters with polarized perceptions that will define their ballot choices,” said Mark Baldassare, PP IC president and CEO. “Most Republicans are unhappy, while most Democrats are satisfied with the political and economic status quo.” Harris, Sanchez Ahead in Senate Primary—Harris Leads in Fall Matchup In the race to replace retiring U .S . Senator Barbara Boxer, nearly a third of likely voters (31%) remain undecided less than a month before the primary. Among the candidates, Democrat Kamala Harris leads with the support of 27 percent of likely voters. Democratic U .S . Representative Loretta Sanchez has the s upport of 19 percent in a race in which the two candidates with the most votes —regardless of party — will advance to the November election. They are followed by Republicans Tom Del Beccaro (8%), Ron Unz (6%), and Duf Sundheim (3%). Among Democratic likely vo ters, Harris leads Sanchez (43% to 32%), with 19 percent undecided. Among Republicans, nearly half (46%) are undecided , as are 35 percent of independents. Latino voters are most likely to support Sanchez (48%), though 19 percent favor Harris. White voters are the most likely to be undecided (36%) or support Harris (24%). If Harris and Sanchez advance to the November election, 34 percent of likely voters say they would vote for Harris and 26 percent would vote for Sanchez (24% volunteer that they would not vote and 15% are undecided). Just under half of Democrats (46%) would vote for Harris, while half of Republicans (51%) say they would not vote. Latinos support Sanchez over Harris. Whites support Harris over Sanchez, with nearly a third saying they would n ot vote. Republican Party’s Favorability Falls Asked for their views on the two major political parties, half of Californians (49%) have a favorable impression of the Democratic Party, while only 23 percent have a favorable view of the Republican Party. Li kely voters are more inclined to have a favorable view of the Democratic Party than the Republican Party (42% to 23%). While favorability toward the Democratic Party is similar today to survey findings in December (51% adults, 47% likely voters favorable), favorability toward the Republican Party has declined by 7 points among all adults (23%, down from 30% in December) and by 10 points among likely voters (23%, down from 33%). Most Democrats (74%) view their party favorably, but only 38 percent of Republicans have a favorable view of theirs—a substantial drop from December when 74 percent of Republicans had a favorable impression of their party . Solid majorities of each racial/ethnic group have an unfavorable impression of the Republican Party (87% black, 69% Asian, 69% Latino, 69% white). “As the presidential primary season comes to a close, the Republican Party's favorability rating has declined while the Democratic Party's favorability rating has held steady,” Baldassare said. “Particularly noteworthy i s the big disconnect on immigration policy between Californians and the Republican front runner.” Most Oppose Building a Wall on the Border The survey asks Californians about two issues being debated in the presidential campaigns:  Immigration policy. A strong majority of likely voters (65%) oppose building a wall along the entire border with Mexico, as Trump has promised to do. There is a stark partisan divide: 86 percent of Democrats and 72 percent of independents oppose building a wall, while 59 percent of Republicans favor it. Asked whether or not undocumented immigrants living in the U nited States should be allowed to stay legally, 75 percent of likely voters favor allowing them to stay. Majorities across parties say undocumented immigrants should be allowed to stay.  U.S. Supreme Court . At a time when the court has issued rulings on a number of polarizing topics, California likely voters are divided in how they rate the court: 46 percent approve of the way the PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 5 court is handling its job and 44 perce nt disapprove. Asked whether they think the Senate should confirm Obama’s nominee, Merrick Garland, to the court, about half of likely voters (51%) say it should (33% should not). Just over half of likely voters (52%) approve of the way President Obama is handling his job. Among those who say they would vote for Clinton in the Democratic primary, 90 percent say they approve of Obama’s job performance. Job approval of the president is slightly lower among those who favor Sanders in the primary (83% approve). Just 12 percent of Republican likely voters approve of the president’s job performance. Only 15 percent of likely voters approve of the way Congress is handling its job. Strong m ajorities across parties disapprove of Congress’ job performance. Californians Balk at Vehicle Fee, Higher Gas Tax The survey asked about the governor’s revised state budget proposal for the next fiscal year, wh ich includes increased spending and funds to pay down state debt and build reserves. After hearing a description of the plan that includes these elements, most likely voters (60%) favor it. The budget also includes a proposal to raise revenue for transportation infrastructure projects with a new fee on all vehicles and an increase in the state gasoline tax. After hearing a description of this part of the governor’s proposal, likely voters are much less likely to support his budget plan (37%). Baldassare note d: “The governor’s budget plan includes a mix of increased spending and savings that has the public's backing, while hi s efforts to increase revenues for surface transportation have hit a serious roadblock.” Asked about other revenue sources for surface transportation projects, 52 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes on a state bond measure to pay for them. The idea of a local sales tax— which several local governments will have on their ballots this year —fares less well: 38 percent of likely voters would vote yes on such a measure, far short of the two -thirds majority required for passage. With the state project ed to have a budget surplus of several billion dollars, Californians were asked whether they would prefer to pay down state debt and build up the reserve or use part of the money to restore some social service programs that were cut in recent years. Likely voters prefer paying down debt (55% to 40% restore funding). In the wake of his budget revision, Governor Brown has a job approval rating of 50 percent among likely voters. The legislature’s job approval rating is lower, at 38 percent among likely voters. Majorities Favor Legalizing Marijuana, Raising Cigarette Tax The survey asked about three issues likely to be on the November ballot:  Marijuana legalization. A majority (60%) of likely voters say that, in general, marijuana use should be legal , and 37 percent say it should not be legal . It is estimated that the initiative to legalize marijuana —if passed—would generate about $1 billion in tax revenue annually, most of which would be directed toward substance abuse preventio n and treatment. Among likely voters, 43 percent say that spending the revenue this way is very important.  Extension of the Proposition 30 tax on high -earners. A majority of likely voters (58%) favor extending the tax on earnings above $250,000 for 12 years to fund education and health care (39% oppose).  Increase in cigarette tax . A strong majority of likely voters (67%) favor increasing the tax on the purchase of cigarettes to fund health care (31% oppose). Majorities across parties are in favor. “California seems poised to show its blue state credentials in the fall,” Baldassare said. “Voters today are signaling their early support for Democratic statewide can didates, tax initiatives, and marijuana legalization.” PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 6 Election and National Issues Key Findings  Fewer than half of likely voters (42%) are satisfied with their choice of presidential candidates; Democrats are much more likely than Republicans or independents to be satisfied. Hillary Clinton (46%) and Bernie Sanders ( 44%) are in a close race in the Democratic primary , while Donald Trump has the support of 6 7 percent of Rep ublican primary likely voters . In potential general election matchups, Trump trails both Clinton and Sanders . (page s 7, 8 )  Nearly six in 10 likely voters (57%) are satisfied with their choice of candidates for the open U.S. Senate seat; Democrats are much more likely than Republicans and independents to be satisfied. Three in 10 likely voters are unsure how they would vote if the primary were held today. As we found in March, Democrats Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez are currently the top two vote -getter s. In a November matchup, Harris leads Sanchez by 8 points . (page 9)  Six in 10 Californians (61 %) approve of President Obama, while three in 10 (28%) approve of Congress . (page 10)  Overwhelmingly , with majorities across parties , Californians say undocume nted immigrants currently in the United States should be able to stay legally if they meet certain requirements. Californians overall also overwhelmingly oppose building a wall along the Mexican border , though a majority of Republicans (59 %) favor this proposal. (page 11 )  Californians are divided on their opinion of the Supreme Court; half think the Senate should confirm Merrick Garland. (page 12)  About half of Californians (49%) view the Democratic Party favorably; one in four (23%) have a favorable i mpression of the Republican Party. (page 13) 61 28 0 20 40 60 80 May-12 May-13May-14May-15May-16 Percent all adults President Obama U.S. Congress Approval ratings of federal elected officials 49 53 39 36 0 20 40 60 80 Clinton Trump Sanders Trump Percent likely voters Potential November presidential matchups 4447 47 58 55 52 46 51 49 31 28 32 35 37 33 29 30 23 0 20 40 60 80 2010 201120122013201420152016 Percent Democratic Party Republican Party Party favorability over time PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 7 California Presidential Primary On June 7, California voters will weigh in on the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations. A majority of likely voters—including majorities across parties —say they are following news about the candidates very closely . Attention to news today (55% very closely, 34% fairly) is higher than in May 2012 (42% very closely, 4 4% fairly ). About four in 10 likely voters (42%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates for president —lower than in May 2012 (57%). Most Democrats (5 3%) today are satisfied, while fewer than half of R epublicans (36 %) and independent s (35%) are satisfied. Satisfaction among Republican likely voters has fallen each month since we began asking this question in December 2015 . Among Democratic primary likely voters ( including Democrats and independent voters who say they will vote in the Democratic primary), support for Hillary Clinton is at 46 percent, while 44 percent support Bernie Sanders. Clinton has a slight lead over Sanders among registered Democrats (49% to 41%). As we found in March, likely voters age 45 a nd older are more likely to support Clinton (59 %), while those younger than 45 are more likely to support Sanders (66%). Latino voters are slightly more likely to support Clinton (52 % to 43%), while white voters are more divided (47% Clinton, 41% Sanders ). Also divided are men (42% Clinton, 46% Sanders) and women (49% Clinton, 42% Sanders ). Sanders leads Clinton among those who are very liberal (64% to 35%). Clinton leads Sanders among t hose who describe themselves as politically somewhat liberal (54% to 33%) or middle -of -the -road (55% to 37%) . “If the 2016 Democratic primary for president were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?” Democratic primary likely voters only Likely voters Age Gender 18 to 44 45 and older Men Women Hillary Clinton 46% 27% 59% 42% 49% Bernie Sanders 44 66 28 46 42 Someone else 4 2 6 6 3 Would not vote in presidential primary (volunteered) 1 –22 – Don't know 4 4 5 3 5 With t he Republican nomination for president essentially decided since Donald Trump is the only candidate remaining in the race, we asked Republican primary likely voters if t hey would vote for Donald Trump or someone else . Most Republican likely voters (6 7%) say the y would vote for Trump , and 26 percent say t hey would vote for someone else; 6 percent are undecided . Men (72%) are more likely than women (62%) to support Trump. Likely voters who describe themselves as politically very conservative (76%) are much more likely than voters who describe themselves as somewhat conservative (56%) to support Trump. 53 36 35 0 20 40 60 80 Dec-15 Jan-16Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16May-16 Percent likely voters DemocratRepublicanIndependent Satisfaction with choices of candidates in the election for U.S. president in 2016 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 8 Presidential Race Looking ahead to potential presidential election matchups, Donald Trump trails Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders among likely voters . In a Clinton -Trump matchup, Hillary Clinton has the support of 49 percent of likely voter s, while 39 percent support Trump and another 11 percen t would vote for someone else (7 %) or are undecided ( 4%). Eighty -five percent of Democratic likely voters support Clinton and 7 8 percent of Republicans would vote for Trump, while half of independents support Clinton (51% , 33 % Trump). Most Latino likely voters support Clinton (71%, 17% Trump), but whites are more divided (40 % Clinton, 49% Trump). Women support Clinton o ver Trump by a wide margin (6 1% to 30% ), while men are more likely to support Trump (49 % to 38% ). Clinton leads Trump among like ly voters age 18 to 34 (66% to 2 8%), while those age 35 and older are divided (45 % Clinton, 42% Trump). Support for Clinton declines as income level increase s (6 8% under $40,000; 49% $ 40,000 to $80,000; 40 % $ 80,000 or higher). “If the November 8 presidential election were being held today, and these were the candidates, would you vote for ?” All likely voters Likely voters Party Race/Ethnicity Dem Rep Ind Latinos Whites Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 49% 85% 9% 51% 71% 40% Donald Trump, the Republican 39 11 78 33 17 49 Someone else (volunteered) 7 1 8 10 9 7 Don’t know 4 2 5 6 3 4 In a Sanders -Trump matchup, Bernie Sanders has the support of 5 3 percent of likely voters , 36 percent would vote for Donald Trump , and another 1 1 percent would vote for someone else ( 7%) or are undecided (4%). Most Democratic (85%) and independent (61%) likely voters support Sanders, while most Republicans support Trump (73% ). Three in 10 Latinos support Sanders (73% , 14% Trump) , while whites are more divided (4 3% Sanders, 45% Trump). Women support Sanders over Trump by a wide margin (61% to 28 %), but men a re more divided (45 % Sanders, 4 3% Trump). Support for Sanders is especially high among those age 18 to 34 (77% Sanders, 17% Trump), while those age 35 and older are more divided (47% Sanders , 40% Trump). Support for Sanders declines as income level increas es (67 % under $40,000; 56% $40,000 to $80,000; 45% $80,000 or higher). “If the November 8 presidential election were being held today, and these were the candidates, would you vote for?” All likely voters Likely voters Party Race/Ethnicity Dem Rep Ind Latinos Whites Bernie Sanders, the Democrat 53% 85% 15% 61% 73% 43% Donald Trump, the Republican 36 9 73 26 14 45 Someone else (volunteered) 7 4 7 6 10 7 Don’t know 4 2 6 7 2 4 There are notable differences in the two matchups : in a matchup with Trump, Sanders has more support than Clinton among independents (61% Sanders, 51% Clinton) and younger vo ters (77% Sanders, 66% Clinton). Among Democratic primary likely voters who support Clinton in the primary, 85 percent would vote for Sanders against Trump; 75 percent of Sanders supporters would vote for Clinton over Trump. PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 9 U.S. Senate Race Less than a month before the June election , nearly six in 10 likely voters (57%) are satisfied with their choice of candidates in the election for U.S. Senate. Most Democrats (7 1% ) are satisfied, while fewer independents (55%) and Republicans (43 %) are satisfied. Sati sfaction has increased since March (47%). Under California's top -two primary system , in place since 2011, the primary race to replace retiring Senator Barbara Boxer includes all candidates, regardless of party , and is open to all registered voters. The top two vote-getter s will advance to the November election. Today, 31 percent of likely voters say they are undecided. Among the candidates, state attorney general Kamala Harris, a Democrat, leads with support from 27 percent of likely voters, followed by De mocratic U.S. Representative Loretta Sanchez at 19 percent. Tom Del Beccaro, former chairman of the state Republican Party, has support from 8 percent of likely voters ; Ron Unz has 6 percent support and Duf Sundheim, also a former chairman of the state Rep ublican Party, has 3 percent support . Results were similar in our March survey, which was conducted before Ron Unz entered the race (26% Harris, 17% Sanchez, 31% don’t know). Today, Harris leads Sanchez among Democratic likely voters ( 43 % to 3 2%), with one in five ( 1 9 % ) undecided. Among Republican voters, 46 percent say they are undecid ed, while 35 percent of independents are undecided. Latino voters are most likely to support Sanchez (48 %), but 19 percent would vote for Harris. White voters are most lik ely to be undecided (36% ) or to support Harris (24 %). “If the June primary for U.S. senator were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?” All likely voters Likely voters Party Race/Ethnicity Dem Rep Ind Latinos Whites Kamala Harris, a Democrat 27% 43 % 7 % 33 % 19 % 24 % Loretta Sanchez, a Democrat 19 32 5 13 48 12 Tom Del Beccaro, a Republican 8 1 16 6 2 10 Ron Unz, a Republican 6 – 13 4 2 7 Duf Sundheim, a Republican 3 – 9 3 1 4 Someone else 6 4 4 6 9 6 Don’t know 31 19 46 35 18 36 If the current top -two primary leaders, both Democrats, a dvance to the general electi on, 34 percent of likely voters say they would support Harris, while 26 percent would support Sanchez . Twenty -four percent volu nteer that they would not vote , and 15 percent are undecided. Just under half of Democrats support Harris, while half of Republicans say they would not vote. Latinos support Sanchez over Harris , while whites support Harris over Sanchez , with three in 10 saying they would not vote. “If the November 8 election for the U.S. Senate were being held today, and these were the top -two candidates in the June Primary, would you vote for?” All likely voters Likely voters Party Race/Ethnicity Dem Rep Ind Latinos Whites Kamala Harris, a Democrat 34% 46 % 20 % 40 % 23 % 32 % Loretta Sanchez, a Democrat 26 36 13 27 53 21 Neither/would not vote (volunteered) 24 4 51 15 13 29 Don’t know 15 14 16 17 12 18 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 10 Approval Ratings of Federal Elected Officials Six in ten Californians (61%) and about half of likely voters (52%) approve of the way President Obama is handling his job. The president’s approval rating was similar in March (59% adults, 53% likely voters ), and a majority of Californians have expressed approval since January 2015. Californians are more likely to approve of the president than are adults nationwide (5 1% ), according to a May ABC/Washington Post poll. There are stark partisan differences : Democrats (84%) are far more likely than independents (57%) and Republicans (15%) to approve of the president. Across racial/ethnic groups, blacks (90%), Asians (74%), and Latinos (69%) are much more likely than whites (47%) to approve of the way President Obama is handling his job. Younger Calif ornians (age 18 to 34) are far more likely than older adults (age 55 or older) to approve of the president (76% to 49%). Among likely voters who say they would vote for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary, 90 percent say they approve of the way Presi dent Obama is handling his job. Among those who say they would vote for Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary, 83 percent approve of the president. Notably, only 12 percent of Republican likely voters approve of the president’s job performance. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president of the United States?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Approve 61% 84 % 15 % 57 % 52 % Disapprove 36 15 83 37 46 Don't know 2 1 2 6 2 Twenty-eight percent of Californians and 15 percent of likely voters approve of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job. Approval was similar in March (24% adults, 14% likely voters ) and has been similar over the past year. Californians in our sur vey are twice as likely to approve of Congres s compared to adults nationwide (14 % in a May CBS News/New York Times poll ). Unlike the stark partisan divide in the president’s approval ratings, approval of Congress is low across parties. Fewer than one in four Democrats (21%), independents (20%), and Republicans (17%) approve of the way Congress is handling its job. Across racial/ethnic groups, Latinos (43%), Asians (41%), and blacks (34%) are far more likely than whites (12%) to approve. Regionally, reside nts in Los Angeles ( 32 %) are the most likely to approve of Congress , while residents in the Central Valley (23%) are the least likely to express approval . Approval of Congress is lower among college graduates (19%) than among those with no college educatio n (38%). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Approve 28% 21 % 17 % 20 % 15 % Disapprove 67 75 81 75 82 Don't know 6 4 3 5 3 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 11 Immigration Policy An overwhelming majority of Californians (83%) say there should be a way for undocumented immigrants to stay in the United States legally, if certain requirements are met. Fourteen percent say they should not be allowed to stay. Overwhelming majorities of Democrats (90%) and independents (86%), as well as a majority of Republicans (58%), say undocumented immigrants should be allowed to stay. Indeed, three in four or more Californians across all regions and demographic groups say undocumented im migrants should be allowed to stay if certain requirements are met. A similar 82 percent said immigrants should be allowed to stay in our January survey . Californians are slightly more likely to say undocumented immigrants should be able to stay lega lly than adults nationwide (75% in a March 2016 Pew Research Center poll). “Which comes closer to your view about how to handle undocumented immigrants who are living in the U.S.? There should be a way for them to stay in the country legally, if certain requirements are met or they should not be allowed to stay in this country legally ?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Allowed to stay legally 83% 90 % 58 % 86 % 75 % Not allow ed to stay legally 14 7 38 12 22 Don't know 2 3 4 2 3 Donald Trump has promised that if he is elected president he will build a wall along the entire U.S. border with Mexico . How do Californians feel about this proposal? Seven in ten (71%) C alifornians and 65 percent of likely voters oppose building a wall along the Mexican border. Just 26 percent of Californians and a third of likely voters express support . Californians in our survey are less supportive of building a wall than adults nationw ide (34%, according to a March Pew Research Center poll) . There are stark party differences on this issue in California. While an overwh elming majority of Democrats (86 %) and a solid majority of independents (72%) oppose building a wall along the entire border with Mexico, 59 percent of Republicans favor this proposal. Today, majorities across all regions and demographic groups oppose building a wall. But men are somewhat more likely than women to favor this proposal (30% to 21%). Support for building a w all along the Mexican border increases as age and income increase. Across racial/ethnic groups, whites (39%) and Asians (26%) are more likely than blacks (15%) and Latinos (11%) to favor building a wall. Notably, among Republican likely voters who say they will vote for Trump in the primary, 78 percent favor building a wall along the Mexican border . “All in all, would you favor or oppose building a wall along the entire border with Mexico?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Favor 26% 13 % 59 % 25 % 33 % Oppose 71 86 37 72 65 Don't know 3 1 4 4 2 26 34 71 62 0 20 40 60 80 100 Californians Adults nationwide* Percent Favor Oppose *March2016 Pew Research Center poll Support for building a wall along the entire border with Mexico PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 12 Supreme Court Over the last year, the U.S. Supreme Court has issued rulings on a number of hotly debated topics , such as gay marriage and the Affordable Care Act. In light of recent rulings, how do Californians rate the Supreme Court? Today, Californians are divided , with 45 percent approving of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job while a similar proportion disapprove (42%). Approval of the Supreme Court was slightly higher in August 2005 (52% approve), shortly after Justice Sandra Day O’Connor announced her retirement. In a February CBS News poll, 49 percent of adults nationwide approve d of the way the Supreme Court wa s handling its job just days after the death of Justice A ntonin Scalia. Across parties, slightly more than half of California Democrats (53%) approve of the Supreme Court’s job performance , while a majority of Republicans (56%) disapprove. Independents are more divided (48% approve, 41% disapprove). Asians (62%) are more likely than whites (44%), Latinos (41%), and blacks (40%) to approve of the Court . Californians age 18 to 34 (51%) are more likely than those age 55 or older (40%) to approve of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job. “Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Approve 45% 53 % 33 % 48 % 46 % Disapprove 42 37 56 41 44 Don 't know 13 10 12 11 10 On March 16, President Obama nominated federal judge Merrick Garland to fill the current Supreme Court vacancy. Senate Republicans have refused to hold confirmation hearings for the nominee. Today, half of Californians (50%) say that the Senate should confirm Judge Garland to the Supreme Court , while one in four (24%) say the Senate should not. A quarter of Californians say they have not heard enough to have an opinion (14%) or ar e unsure (11%). In a March Pew Research Center poll, 46 percent of adults nationwide said the Senate should confirm Merrick Garland while 30 percent said the Senate should not. T here are stark partisan differences on this issue : a strong majority of Democrats (72%) are in favor of Judge Garland’s confirmation , while a solid majority of Republicans (64%) are opposed. Among independents, a slight majority (54%) favor confirming Judge Garland , while one in four (24%) say the Senate should no t confirm him. College graduates (56%) are more likely than those with no college education (45%) to say that the Senate should confirm Judge Garland. Across racial/ethnic groups, blacks (62%) and Asians (61%) are more likely than whites (47%) and Latinos (46%) to say the Senate should confirm him. “As you ma y know, Barack Obama has nominated federal judge Merrick Garland to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court. From what you've seen and heard so far, do you think the Senate should or should not confirm Merrick Garland?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Should confirm 50% 72 % 22 % 54 % 51 % Should not confirm 24 10 64 24 33 Have not heard enough to have an opinion (volunteered) 14 10 9 10 9 Don't know 11 8 5 11 7 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 13 Party Favorability With the 2016 election campaigns in full swing, how do Californians feel about the two major political parties? About half of Californians (49 %) have a favorable impression of the Democratic Party , and 23 percent have a favorable impression of the Republican Party. Among adults nationwide in the ABC/Washington Post poll, 48 percent have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party and 36 percent have a favorable view of the Republican Party. California l ikely voters are more inclined to have favorable impressions of the Democratic Party (42 %) than of th e Republican Party (23 %). While the Democratic Party ’s favorability was similar in December (51% favorable), the Republican Party ’s favorability was 7 percent age points higher (30%). Among likely voters, Republican Party favorability has declined by 1 0 perc entage points since December (23 %, down from 33%). According to the most recent report from the California Secretary of State, 44 percent of California voters are registered as Democrats, 28 percent as Republicans, 5 percent with other parties, and 24 percent as independents (i.e., no party preference). “Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of the Democratic Party?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Favorable 49% 74 % 10 % 41 % 42 % Unfavorable 44 23 87 50 54 Don't know 7 2 3 9 4 Among registe red Democrats, three in four (74 %) view their part y favorably, while one in four (23 %) view it unfavorably. Among registered Republicans, 38 percent view their party favorably —a notable decrease from December , when 74 percent had a favorable impression of their party. Half of registered independents have an unfavorable impres sion of the Democratic Party (50 %), and a strong majority have an unfavorable impression of the Republican Party (69 %). Across racial/ethnic grou ps, blacks (70%) and Latinos (61 %) are much more likely than Asians (46 %) and whites (38% ) to have a favorable impression of the Democratic Party. S olid majorities of each racial/ethnic group have an unfavor able impression of the Republican Party (69% Asian s, 69% Latino s, 69% whites, 87 % black s). “Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable imp ression of the Republican Party?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Favorable 23% 8 % 38 % 23 % 23 % Unfavorable 70 90 57 69 75 Don't know 7 2 4 8 3 68 75 72 86 83 77 73 76 74 54 55 59 72 58 66 58 74 38 0 20 40 60 80 1002010201120122013201420152016 Percent favorable Democrats Republicans Favorability toward their own party over time PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 14 State and Fiscal Issues Key Findings  Fifty -two percent of Californians approve of Governor Jerry Brown and 43 percent approve of the state legislature . (page 15)  Three in 10 Californians name jobs and the economy as the most important issue facing people in the state. Californian s are divided alon g party lines about whether the state is headed in the right direction or will have good times financially . (page 16)  Forty -four percent of California adults and 51 percent of likely voters say the state budget situation is a big problem . Californians are divided across parties in t heir preferences for using the budget surplus. (page 17)  Solid majorities of Californians and likely voters favor the governor’s budget proposal when his transportation plan is not mentioned . Support drops when the plan— which includes a new fee and a higher gasoline tax —is outlined . (page 18)  About six in 10 adults and likely voters favor extending the Proposition 30 income taxes to fund education and health care. About seven in 10 adults and likely voters favor increasing the tax on the purchase of c igarettes to fund health care . (page 19)  Majorities of Californians and likely voters would vote yes on a state bond to pay for surface transportation projects; D emocrats and Republicans are on opposing sides. About four in 10 adults an d likely voters wou ld vote yes to raise the local sales tax to fund transportation pro jects . (page 20)  M ajorit ies of adults and likely voters continue to favor marijuana legalization . Forty -five percent of Californians think it is very important that revenues from taxing marijuana go to substance abu se prevention and treatment . (page 21) 52 43 0 20 40 60 80 100 May-12 May-13May-14May-15 May-16 Percent all adults Governor Brown California Legislature Approval ratings of state elected officials 50 58 2551 39 3262 40 0 20 40 60 80 100 All adults DemRep IndPercent Good times Bad times Economic outlook for state 55 43 0 20 40 60 80 2010 201120122013201420152016 Percent all adults Yes, legal No, not legal Marijuana legalization PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 15 Approval Ratings of State Elected Officials Following the May budget revision , 52 percent of adults and 5 0 percent of likely voters approve of the way Jerry Brown is handling his job as California governor. Brown’s approval rating was s imilar in April (54% adults, 56% likely voters) and last Ma y (5 2% adults, 5 4% likely voters). Today, the governor’s approval rating is much higher among Democrats ( 66%) and independents (59 %) than among Republicans (2 7% ). Approval is slightly higher in the San Francisco Bay Area (58 %) than in other regions. Asians (59%), b lacks (58%), and Latinos (55% ) are somewhat more likely t han whites (48%) to approve. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California? ” Approve Disapprove Don’t know All adults 52% 28 % 20 % Likely voters 50 39 10 Party Democrats 66 21 14 Republicans 27 63 10 Independents 59 27 14 Region Central Valley 51 28 21 San Francisco Bay Area 58 18 24 Los Angeles 52 31 17 Orange/San Diego 50 33 17 Inland Empire 52 29 20 As state lawmakers approach the June budget deadline, 43 percent of adults and 38 percent of likely voters approve of the way the California Legislature is handling its job. Approval of the legislature was in a similar range in April (4 8% adults, 4 0% likely voters), but it was somewhat lower last May ( 37 % adult s, 30% likely voters). Today, a majority of Democrats (5 4% ) approve of the legislature , while fewer independents ( 44% ) and Republicans (1 7% ) hold this view. Asians (54 %), Latinos (51%) , and blacks ( 49%) are more likely than whites (33 %) to approve. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job?” Approve Disapprove Don’t know All adults 43% 37 % 20 % Likely voters 38 49 13 Party Democrats 54 29 17 Republicans 17 70 14 Independents 44 42 14 Region Central Valley 37 42 22 San Francisco Bay Area 47 32 22 Los Angeles 43 40 17 Orange/San Diego 44 36 20 Inland Empire 44 30 26 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 16 Overall Mood What is the public’s mood before the California Primary on June 7? When asked to identify the most important issue facing people in California today, most say either jobs and the economy (30%) or water and the drought (16%) . The same issues were on top in March (27% economy, 20% water) and last May (39% water, 20% economy) , but mention s of wat er and the drought have declined . Today, Central Valley residents are slightly more likely than others to mention water. Likely voters and all adults hold similar views on the top two issues . “Thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today?” Top five issues All adults Region Likely voters Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Jobs, economy 30% 29 % 29% 33% 26% 34% 32 % Water, drought 16 23 16 11 18 14 16 Immigration, illegal immigration 6 3 2 7 11 9 6 Education, schools, teachers 6 3 8 6 7 9 9 Crime, gangs, drugs 5 5 4 6 3 5 3 Californians are divided about the direction of the state. Fifty-one percent of all adults and 4 5 percent of likely voters say that things in California are generally going in the right direction. The view that the state is headed in the right direction was similar in March (5 0% adults, 4 5% likely voters) and slightly lower last Ma y ( 45 % adults, 4 0% likely voters). Today, Democrats (6 6% ) are more likely than independents ( 52%) and Republicans (1 9% ) to say that things are going in the right direction. San Francisco Bay Area residents ( 62 %) are more likely to say that things are going in the right direction t han residents in other regions ( 49% Inland Empire, 49% Orange/San Diego, 48 % Los Angeles, 43% Central Valley). Blacks (64%), Asians ( 62 %), and Latinos (55%) are much more likely than whites (42% ) to have this positive outl ook. “Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Right direction 51% 66 % 19 % 52 % 45 % Wrong direction 43 30 78 41 51 Don’t know 6 5 3 6 4 When it comes to the state’s economic outlook, half of all adults (50%) and 45 percent of likely voters say that California will have good times financially in the next 12 months. Expectations for good economic times were similar in March ( 51 % adults, 4 6% likely voters) and last May ( 48 % adults, 44 % likely voters). Today, Democrats (5 8% ) and independents (51%) are twice as likely as Republicans (25%) to expect good economic times . Half or more residents in Los Angeles (55%), the Inland Empire (5 4%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (51%) expect good economic times ( 46% Central Valley, 44% Orange/San Diego ). Latinos (59%) and Asians (54%) are somewhat more likely than blacks (46%) and whites (43%) to expect good economic times. Men (54%) are slightly more likely than women (47%) to have positive economic expectations, and these expectations decline with age. PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 17 State Budget Situation As the governor and legislature deliberate spending and revenues for the next year, 44 percent of California adults and 51 percent of likely voters say the budget situation is a big problem. Most Republicans ( 76 % ) call the budget a big problem , compared to far fewer independents (44%) and Democrats (34%) . The view that the budget situation is a big problem was similar in March (4 8% adults, 55% likely voters ) and last Ma y (4 7% adults, 5 2% likely voters). B ut this view is much less common now than it was a few years ago when the state had a large gap between annual spending and revenues . “D o you think the state budget situation in California —that is, the balance between government spending and revenues —is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Big problem 44% 34 % 76 % 44 % 51 % Somewhat of a problem 37 45 17 41 33 Not a problem 13 16 5 11 13 Don't know 6 5 2 5 3 Wh en asked about how they would prefer to use the projected budget surplus, just under half of adults prefer to pay down debt and build the reserve (45%) while half would restore funding for social service s (50%). L ikely voters prefer paying down debt and building up the reserve (55 %, 40% restore funding ). The se responses are consistent with results from January for all adults (48% pay debt ; 48% restore funding), and likely voters (54% pay debt ; 42% restore funding). Today, the majority of Democrats ( 60 %) prefer to restor e funding , while most Republicans (7 2%) and half of independents (5 2%) prefer to pay down debt and build the reserve . Blacks (62%), Latinos (59%), and Asians (52%) are more likely than whites (40 %) to prefer restoring funding for social services . Support for restoring social service funding is higher among women (5 7% ) than men (4 2%) and declines sharply with income . “The state is projected to have a budget surplus of several billion dollars. Would you prefer to pay down state debt and build up the reserve or would you prefer to use some of this money to restore some funding for social service programs t hat were cut in recent years?” 45 3672 52 50 60 2240 0 20 40 60 80 All adults DemRep Ind Percent Pay down debt, build reserve Restore social service funding 45 50 0 20 40 60 80 Percent all adults PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 18 Governor’s Budget Proposal On May 13, Governor Brown released his revised state budget proposal for the next fiscal year, which includes increased spending, funds to pay down state debt and build reserves, and a proposal to raise revenue for transportation infrastructure projects. After hearing a description of the budget that excludes the transportation proposal, solid majorities of adults (65%) and likely voters (6 0% ) are in favor. Democrats (7 4%) and independen ts (69%) are far more likely than Republicans (4 5% ) to favor the budget. At least six in 10 across regions and racial/ethnic, age, education, and income groups are in favor. Favorability toward the budget is linked to approval of Governor Brown, with 78 pe rcent of those who approve of the go vernor’s job performance favoring his budget. Last May, 73 percent of adults and 70 percent of likely voters favored the governor’s budget proposal. “Governor Brown recently released a revised budget plan for the next fi scal year that will increase spending on K –12 and higher education, health and human services, prisons, and courts. The plan includes funds to pay down the state’s debt and puts $2 billion into the state’s rainy day fun d. In general, do you favor or op pose the governor's budget plan?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Favor 65 % 74 % 45 % 69 % 60 % Oppose 26 20 45 22 32 Have not heard anything about the budget (volunteered) 3 2 3 3 3 Don't know 6 4 7 6 5 Governor Brown ’s budget proposal includes a new fee on vehicles and an increase in the state gasoline tax to fund transportation infrastructure projects. After this element is described , support for the governor’s budget plan drops to 3 5 percent among adults and 37 percent among likely voters. Across parties, a majority of Democrats (5 3% ) are in favor, but a majority of independents (55%) and eight in 10 Republicans (82%) are opposed. Majorities across age, education, and income groups are opposed. Fewer than h alf of those who initially favored the g overnor’s budget plan (47 %) remain in favor after hearing about the transportation proposal. In January, we assessed attitudes toward the governor’s initial budget proposal after providing a description that included i ncreased spending, funds to pay down debt and build the reserve, and the transportation proposal. At that time, we found that 48 percent of adults and 46 percent of likely voters favored the governor’s budget plan. “The proposed budget plan also includes a new fee on all vehicles and an increase in the state gasoline tax to fund transportation infrastructure projects. Knowing this, in general, do you favor or oppose the governor's budget plan? ” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Favor 35 % 53 % 15 % 38 % 37 % Oppose 61 44 82 55 59 Have not heard anything about the budget (volunteered) 2 1 1 3 1 Don't know 3 2 1 4 2 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 19 Raising Revenues In November 2012, voters passed Proposition 30 (55% yes) , which included a temporary income tax increase on wealth y Californians and a temporary state sales tax increase. This November ’s ballot is likely to include an initiative that would extend the Proposition 30 tax on earnings above $250,000 for 12 years to fund education and health care . About s ix in 10 adults (64% ) and likely voters (58% ) favor extending the tax for that purpose. Support for this proposal was similar in March (61% adults, 58% likely voters). Today, s olid majorities of Democrats (80%) and independents (68 %) favor extend ing the income tax increase , compared to only 31 percent of Republicans. Though majorities across regions and demographic groups favor the extension, support decreases as age and income levels increase . Those who say the state budget situation is a big problem are slightly more likely to favor extending the Proposition 30 income tax than to oppose it (52% to 46%) . Those who have a more positive view of the budget situation are much more likely to favor the extension (7 3% somewhat of a problem, 81 % not a problem). “As you may know, voters passed Proposition 30 in November 2012. It increased taxes on earnings over $250,000 until 2018 and sales taxes by one quarter cent until 2016. Do you favor or oppose extending for 12 years the tax increase on earnings over $250,000 to fund education and health care?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Favor 64% 80 % 31 % 68 % 58 % Oppose 32 17 66 29 39 Don't know 4 3 3 3 2 The November ballot may also include a tax increase on cigarettes to fund health care. About seven in 10 adults and likely voters favor increasing cigarette taxes for this purpose. In January, 53 percent of adults said that raising cigarette taxes to pay for health care was very important to them. Today, m ajorities across parties are in favo r, though Democrats (82%) are much more likely to favor an in crease than are independents (68 %) or Republicans (5 3% ). Across regions and racial/ethnic, age, education, and income groups , at least six in 10 favor increasing the tax on cigarettes. The initia tive that may appear on the November ballot would increase the cigarette tax by $2 per pack. In June 2012, Proposition 29 —which would have raised the state cigarette tax by $1 per pack to fund cancer research —fell short of the simple majority needed to pas s ( 49.8 % yes) . “ In general, would you favor or oppose increasing the tax on the purchase of cigarettes to fund health care?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Favor 69% 82 % 53 % 68 % 67 % Oppose 29 17 45 31 31 Don't know 2 2 2 2 2 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 20 Surface Transportation Funding In January, we asked Californians about their preferences for increas ing the state government’s current level of funding for roads and infrastructure projects . W e found that a plurality preferred using only surplus budget funds (31%), with an additional 24 percent preferring to issue state bonds. What is the level of support today for a state bond to fund transportation? Sixty -one percent of adults and 5 2 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes on a state bond mea sure to pay for surface transportation projects if it appeared on the ballot . Across parties, Democrats (69 %) are most likely to support a state bond measure , followed by 58 percent of independents and 37 percent of Republicans. Majorities across regions w ould vote yes ( 67% San Francisco Bay Area, 66% Los Angeles, 61% Orange/San Diego, 56% Inland Empire, 54% Central Valley). Strong majorities of Asians (76%) , blacks (74 %), and Latinos (69 %) would vote yes, and about half of whites ( 51%) would do so. In April , we found higher levels of support for a statewide bond measure to pay for school construction projects (76% adults, 63% likely voters), with at least half in favor across parties. “If the state ballot had a bond measure to pay for surface transportation projects in California, would you vote yes or no ?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Yes 61% 69 % 37 % 58 % 52 % No 32 26 56 36 42 Don't know 6 4 6 6 7 Another potential revenue source for surface transportation projects is a local sales tax increase, which has required a two -thirds majority since Proposition 13 passed. Local voters have passed these types of measures, and several local governments will h ave transportation tax measures on their ballot s this year. Statewide , we find that only 43 percent of adults and 38 percent of likely voters would vote yes on such a local tax, far short of the two-thirds majority requirement . Slightly more than half of Democrats (5 4% ) would vote yes, while majorities of independents (57%) and Republicans (73%) would vote no. Across the state, support does not exceed 50 percent in any region. Support for a local sales tax increase to pay for transportation projec ts is far higher among those who would vote yes on a transportation bond than among those who would vote no on such a bond (6 2% to 12%). Support is also far higher among those who favor the governor’s budget, including his transportation proposal, than amo ng those who oppose it (67% to 29% ). “If your local ballot had a measure to increase the local sales tax to pay for surface transportation projects in your part of California, would you vote yes or no ?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Yes 43% 54 % 23 % 37 % 38 % No 52 44 73 57 58 Don't know 5 2 4 6 5 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 21 Marijuana Legalization An initiative planned for th is November ’s ballot would legalize the recreational use of marijuana in California. In November 2010, Proposition 19 , which also sought to legalize marijuana, fell short of the majority needed to pass (46.5% yes). Today, 55 percent of adults and 60 percent of likely voters say that, in general, the use of marijuana should be legal. Public support was similar last May (54% adults, 56% likely voters). Democrats (6 9% ) and independents (6 5% ) are much more likely than Republicans (45%) to say the use of marijuana should be legal. Two in three adults under age 35 favor legalization, while about half of older adults are in favor. Across racial/ethnic groups, strong majorities of blacks (78% ) and whites (65 %) favor legalization, while fewer Asians (50 %) and Latinos (40%) do so. An overwhelming majority of those who say they have tried marijuana favor legalization (78%), while a sol id majority of those who have never tried it are opposed (63%). Compared to Californians in our survey (5 5% ), adults nationwide in an April CBS/New York Times poll (56%) are about as likely to say the use of marijuana should be legal. “In general, do you think the use of marijuana should be legal or not?” Yes, legal No, not legal Don’t know All adults 55% 43 % 3 % Likely voters 60 37 3 Party Democrats 69 29 2 Republicans 45 54 2 Independents 65 31 4 Age 18 to 34 66 33 1 35 to 54 50 46 3 55 and above 49 48 3 Ever tried marijuana? Yes 78 20 2 No 35 63 3 If the initiative passes , it is estimated that legalize d marijuana would generate about $1 billion in tax revenue annually, most of which would be directed toward substance abuse prevention and treatment programs . M ore than seven in 10 adults and likely say this is very or somewhat important. Those w ho favor or oppose legalization are equally likely to say this is very important (44% legal, 46% not legal). “An initiative on the Nove mber ballot would legalize, tax, and regulate the use of marijuana and is expected to generate about $1 billion annually in state and local tax revenues. How important is it to you that this revenue be spent on substance abuse prevention and treatment . Is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important ?” All adults Party Should marijuana be legal? Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 45% 50 % 34 % 43 % 44 % 46 % Somewhat important 27 28 26 29 31 23 Not too important 10 9 15 12 10 10 Not at all important 15 12 22 11 14 18 Don't know 2 1 3 4 1 3 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 22 Regional Map PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 201 6 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 23 Methodology The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance from associate survey director Dean Bonner , project manager for this survey, and survey research associates David Kordus and Lunna Lopes. The Californians and Their Government series is supported with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. The PPIC Statewide Survey invites input, comments, and suggestions from policy and public opin ion experts and from its own advisory committee, but survey methods, questions, and content are determined solely by PPIC’s survey team. Findings in this report are based on a survey of 1,70 4 California adult residents, including 85 3 interviewed on landline telephones and 85 1 interviewed on cell phones. Interviews took an average of 19 minutes to complete. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights from May 13 –22, 201 6. Landline interviews were conducted using a computer- generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible for selection, and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as six times to increase the likeliho od of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Cell phone interviews were conducted using a c omputer-generated random sample of cell phone numbers. All cell phone numbers with California area codes were eligible for selection, and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as eight times to increase the likelihood of reaching an eligible res pondent. Once a cell phone user was reached, it was verified that this person was age 18 or older, a resident of California, and in a safe place to continue the survey (e.g., not driving). Cell phone respondents were offered a small reimbursement to help defray the cost of the call. Cell phone interviews were conducted with adults who have cell phone service only and with those who have both cell phone and landline service in the household. Live landline and cell phone interviews were conducted by Abt SRB I, Inc., in English and Spanish, according to respondents’ preferences. Accent on Languages, Inc., translated new survey questions into Spanish, with assistance from Renatta DeFever. Abt SRBI uses the U.S. Census Bureau’s 201 0–201 4 American Community Surve y’s (ACS) Public Use Microdata Series for California (with regional coding information from the University of Minnesota’s Integrated Public Use Microdata Series for California) to compare certain demographic characteristics of the survey sample —region, age , gender, race/ethnicity, and education —with the characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the ACS figures. To estimate landline and cell phone service in California, Abt SRBI used 201 4 state -level estima tes released by the National Center for Health Statistics —which used data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the ACS —and 2015 estimates for the West Census Region in the latest NHIS report. The estimates for California were then compared against landline and cell phone service reported in this survey. We also used voter registration data from the California Secretary of State to compare the party registration of registered voters in our sample to party registration statewide. The landline and cell phone samples were then integrated using a frame integration weight, while sample balancing adjusted for differences across regional, age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, telephone service, and party registration groups. The sampling error, ta king design effects from weighting into consideration, is ±3. 3 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total unweighted sample of 1,70 4 adults. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 3. 3 percentage points of what they wo uld be if all adults in California PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 201 6 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 24 were interviewed. The sampling error for unweighted subgroups is larger: for the 1, 338 registered voters, the sampling error is ±3 .8 percent; for the 996 likely voters, it is ±4. 3 percent ; for the 552 Democratic Primary l ikely voters, it is ±5 .7 percent; for the 284 Republican Primary likely voters, it is ±7 .4 percent . Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. We present results for five geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin , Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, “In land Empire” refers to Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, and “Orange/San Diego” refers to Orange and San Diego Counties. Residents of other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes for these less populous areas are not large enough to report separately. We present specific results for non -Hispanic whites, who account for 43 percent of the state’s adult population, and also for Latinos, who account for about a third of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest- growing voter groups. We also present results for non -Hispanic Asians, who make up about 15 percent of the state’s adult population, and non -Hispanic blacks, who comprise about 6 percent. Resul ts for other racial/ethnic groups —such as Native Americans —are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes are not large enough for separate analysis. We compare the opinions of those who report t hey are registered Democrats, registered Republicans, and decline -to -state or independent voters; the results for those who say they are registered to vote in other parties are not large enough for separate analysis. We also analyze the responses of likely voters —so designated per their responses to voter registration survey questions, previous election participation, and current interest in politics. The percentages presented in the report tables and in the questionnaire may not add to 100 due to roundin g. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey results to those in our earlier surveys and to those in national surveys by ABC/Washington Post, CBS News, CBS News /New York Times , and Pew Research Center . Additional details about our methodology can be found at www.ppic.org/content/other/SurveyMethodology.pdf and are available upon request through surveys@ppic.org . PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 25 Questionnaire and Results CALIFORNIANS AND THE IR GOVERNMENT May 13–22, 2016 1 ,704 California Adult Residents: English, Spanish MARGIN OF ERROR ± 3.3% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100 D UE TO ROUNDING First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today? [code, don’t read] 30% jobs, economy 16 water, drought 6 education, schools, t eachers 6 immigration, illegal immigration 5 crime, gangs, drugs 4 environment, pollution, global warming 4 housing costs, housing availability 4 state budget, deficit, taxes 3 government in general , election 3 homelessness 2 health care, health insurance 2 infrastructure 11 other ( specify) 4 don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California? 52% approve 28 disapprove 20 don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job? 43% approve 37 disapprove 20 don’t know Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 51% right direction 43 wrong direction 6 don’t know Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 50% good times 39 bad times 11 don’t know Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote in California? 62% yes [ask Q6a] 38 no [skip to Q7f ] 6a. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or are you registered as a decline-to-state or independent voter? 43% Democrat [ask Q7] 28 Republican [skip to Q7a] 5 another party ( specify) [skip to Q9] 24 independent [skip to Q7b] Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 56% strong 41 not very strong 3 don’t know [skip to Q8a] PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 26 7a. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 51% strong 45 not very strong 4 don’t know [skip to Q8b] 7b. In a few words, can you tell me the main reason why you are registered as a decline- to-state or independent voter and not as a member of a political party? [code, don’t read] 41% not satisfied with parties, parties don’t reflect my views 23 vote for candidates, not party 5 corruption 5 privacy/confidentiality 3 don’t want political mailings or phone calls 2 politicians/ elected officials 15 other (specify) 6 don’t know 7c. And, were you previously registered with a major party or have you always been a decline -to-state or independent voter? 38% previously registered [ask Q7d ] 60 always been a decline -to-state or independent voter [skip to Q7e] 2 don’t know [skip to Q7e] 7d. And what party were you previously registered with? [code, don’t read] 49% Democratic Party 37 Republican Party 4 Libertarian Party 3 American Independent Party 4 other (specify) 3 don’t know 7e. Would you join a political party if it was a good reflection of your political views or do you prefer to be unaffiliated with any specific party? 41% join a political party 55 remain unaffiliated 4 don’t know 7f. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republ ican Party or Democratic Party? 21% Republican Party 52 Democratic Party 20 neither (volunteered) 7 don’t know 7g. [independent voters only] California voters like you will be able to choose between voting in the Democratic primary, or selecting a nonpartisan ballot on June 7th. Both ballots include state proposition measures. Do you plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary or on the nonpartisan ballot? 35% Democratic presidential primary [ask Q8a] 45 nonpartisan ballot [skip to Q9] 8 not planning to vote ( volunteered) [skip to Q9] 12 don’t know [skip to Q9] 8a. [Democratic p rimary likely voters only] If the 2016 Democratic primary for president were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? [rotate names and then ask “or someone else?”] 46% Hillary Clinton 44 Bernie Sanders 4 someone else ( specify) 1 would not vote in presidential primary (volunteered) 4 don’t know [skip to Q9] PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 27 8b. [Republican primary likely voters only] If the 2016 Republican primary for president were being held today, would you vote for Donald Trump or someone else? 67% Donald Trump 26 someone else ( specify) 1 would not vote in presidential primary (volunteered) 6 don’t know 9. [likely voters only] In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for U.S. President in 2016? 42% satisfied 55 not satisfied 1 both (volunteered) 2 don’t know 10. [likely voters only] How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2016 presidential election —very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 55% very closely 34 fairly closely 9 not too closely 3 not at all closely – don’t know [question 11 deleted] [rotate questions 12 and 12a] 12. [likely voters only] If the November 8th presidential election were being held today, and these were the candidates, would you vote fo r: [rotate in same order for Q12 and Q12a] (1) Hillary Clinton, the Democrat [or] (2) Donald Trump, the Republican? 49% Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 39 Donald Trump, the Republican 7 someone else (volunteered, specify) 4 don’t know 12a. [likely voters only] If the November 8th presidential election were being held today, and these were the candidates, would you vote for: [rotate in same order for Q12 and Q12a] (1) Bernie Sanders, the Democrat [or] (2) Donald Trump, the Republican? 53% Be rnie Sanders, the Democrat 36 Donald Trump, the Republican 7 someone else ( volunteered, specify) 4 don’t know 13. [likely voters only] As you may know, California now has a top -two primary system for statewide races in which voters can cast ballots for any candidate, regardless of party, and the two candidates receiving the most votes—regardless of party—will advance to the general electi on. If the June primary for U.S. Senator were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? [ rotate names and then ask “or someone else?”] 27% Kamala Harris , a Democrat 19 Loretta Sanchez, a Democrat 8 Tom Del Beccaro, a Repub lican 6 Ron Unz, a Republican 3 Duf Sundheim , a Republican 6 someone else ( specify) 31 don’t know 14. [likely voters only] In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for U.S. Senate in 2 016? 57% satisfied 21 not satisfied 1 both (volunteered) 21 don’t know 14a. [likely voters only] If the November 8th election for the U.S. Senate were being held today, and these were the top -two candidates in the June Primary, would you vote for: [rotate] (1) Kamala Harris, a Democrat [or] (2) Loretta Sanchez, a Democrat? 34% Kamal a Harris, a Democrat 26 Loretta Sanchez, a Democrat 24 neither/would not vote for U.S. Senator (volunteered ) 15 don’t know PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 28 15. Next, d o you think the state budget situation in California —that is, the balance between government spending and revenues—is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today? 44% big problem 37 somewhat of a problem 13 not a problem 6 don’t know 16. As you may know, voters passed Proposition 30 in November 2012. It increased taxes on earnings over $250,000 until 2018 and sales taxes by one quarter cent until 2016. Do you favor or oppose extending for 12 years the tax increase on earnings over $250,000 to fund education and healthcare? 64% favor 32 oppose 4 don’t know 17. In general, would you favor or oppose increasing the state tax on the purchase of cigarettes to fund healthcare? 69% favor 29 oppose 2 don’t know [question 18 deleted] 19. On another topic, Governor Brown recently released a revised budget plan for the next fiscal year that will increase spending on K –12 and higher education, health and human services, prisons, and courts. The plan includes funds to pay down the state’s debt and puts $2 billion into the state’s rainy day fund. In general, do you favor or oppose the governor’s budget plan? 65% favor 26 oppose 3 haven’t heard anything about the budget (volunteered) 6 don’t know 19a. The proposed budget plan also includes a new fee on all vehicles and an increase in the state gasoline tax to fund transportation infrastructure projects. Knowing this, in general, do you favor or oppose the governor’s budget plan? 35% favor 61 oppose 2 haven’t heard anything about the budget (volunteered) 3 don’t know 20. The state is projected to have a budget surplus of several billion dollars. In general, how would you prefer to use this extra money? [rotate ] (1) Would you prefer to pay down state debt and build up the reserve [or] (2) would you prefer to use some of this money to restore some funding for social service programs that were cut in recent years? 45% pay down debt and build up reserve 50 restore funding for social services 6 don’t know [question 21 deleted ] Next, please t ell me if you would vote yes or no on each of the following proposals to increase state and local funding for surface transportation projects in California. [ rotate questions 22 to 23] 22. If the state ballot had a bond measure to pay for surface transpor tation projects in California, would you vote yes or no? 61% yes 32 no 6 don’t know 23. If your local ballot had a measure to increase the local sales tax to pay for surface transportation projects in your part of California, would you vote yes or no? 43% yes 52 no 5 don’t know PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 29 24. On another topic, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president of the United States? 61% approve 36 disapprove 2 don’t know 25. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job? 28% approve 67 disapprove 6 don’t know [question 26 deleted] Changing topics, 27. Which comes closer to your view about how to handle undocumented immigrants who are living in the U.S.? [rotate ] (1) There should be a way for them to stay in the country legally, if certain requirements are met [or] (2) They should not be allowed to stay in this country legally. 83% allowed to stay legally 14 not allowed to stay legally 2 don’t know 28. All in all, would you favor or oppose building a wall along the entire border with Mexico? 26% favor 71 oppose 3 don’t know 29. On another topic, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job? 45% approve 42 disapprove 13 don’t know 30. As you many know, Barack Obama has nominated federal judge Merrick Garland to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court. From what you've seen and heard so far, do you think the Senate should or should not confirm Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court? 50% should confirm 24 should not confirm 14 have not heard enough to have an opinion (volunteered) 11 don’t know On another topic, [rotate questions 31 and 32] 31. Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of the Democratic Party? 49% favorable 44 unfavorable 7 don’t know 32. Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of the Republican Party? 23% favorable 70 unfavorable 7 don’t know Changing topics, 33. In general, do you think the use of marijuana should be legal, or not? 55% yes, legal 43 no, not legal 3 don’t know 34. An initiative on the November ballot would legalize, tax, and regulate the use of marijuana and is expected to generate about $1 billion annually in state and local tax revenues. How important is it to you that this revenue be spent on substance abuse prevention and treatment. Is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 45% very important 27 somewhat important 10 not too important 15 not at all important 2 don’t know PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 30 34a. Keeping in mind that all of your answers in the survey are confidential, have you ever tried marijuana? (If yes ask: H ave you used marijuana in the last 12 months?) 19% yes have tried marijuana, used in the past year 27 yes, have tried marijuana, not in the past year 54 no, have not tried marijuana 1 don’t know 35. Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order from top to bottom] 13% very liberal 19 somewhat liberal 27 middle -of-the -road 22 somewhat conservative 15 very conservative 3 don’t know 36. Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics —a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 25% great deal 34 fair amount 32 only a little 9 none – don’t know [d1 to d15: demographic questions] PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect Angela Glover Blackwell President and CEO PolicyLink Mollyann Brodie Senior Vice President Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director B ill Lane Center for the American West Stanford University Jon Cohen Vice President of Survey Research SurveyMonkey Joshua J. Dyck Co-Director Center for Public Opinion University of Massachusetts, Lowell Russell Hancock President and CEO Joint Venture Sil icon Valley Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Professor Sol Price School of Public Policy University of Southern California Robert Lapsley President California Business Roundtable Carol S. Larson President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Sonja Petek 2016 Master of Public Policy Candidate Goldman School of Public Policy, UC Berkeley Lisa Pitney Vice President of Government Relations The Walt Disney Company Mindy Romero Founder and Director California Civic Engagement Project at the UC Davis Center for Regional Change Robert K. Ross, MD President and CEO The California Endowment Most Reverend Jaime Soto Bishop of Sacramento Roman Catholic Diocese of Sacramento Carol Whiteside Principal California Strategies The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PPIC BOARD OF DIRECTORS Donna Lucas, Chair Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Mark Baldassare President and CEO Public Policy Institute of California Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect María Blanco Executive Director Undocumented Student Legal Services Center University of California Office of the President Louise Henry Bryson Chair Emerita, Board of Trustees J. Paul Getty Trust A. Marisa Chun Partner McDermott Will & Emery LLP Phil Isenberg Former Chair Delta Stewardship Council Mas Masumoto Author and Farmer Steven A. Merksamer Senior Partner Nielsen, Merksamer, Parrinello, Gross & Leoni, LLP Gerald L. Parsky Chairman Aurora Capital Group Kim Polese Chairman ClearStreet, Inc. Gaddi H. Vasquez Senior Vice President, Government Affairs Edison International Southern California Edison Public Policy Institute of California 500 Washington Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, CA 94111 T: 415.291.4400 F: 415.291.4401 PPIC.ORG PPIC Sacramento Center Senator Office Building 1121 L Street, Suite 801 Sacramento, CA 95814 T: 916.440.1120 F: 916.440.1121" } ["___content":protected]=> string(102) "

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" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(107) "https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-may-2016/s_516mbs/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(9012) ["ID"]=> int(9012) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:42:59" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(4554) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(8) "S 516MBS" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(8) "s_516mbs" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(12) "S_516MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "733089" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(79966) "PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 Californians & Their Government Mark Baldassare Dean Bonner David Kordus Lunna Lopes CONTENTS Press Release 3 Election and National Issues 6 State and Fiscal Issues 14 Regional Map 22 Methodology 23 Questionnaire and Results 25 Supported with funding from The James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle The PPIC Statewide Survey provides a voice for the public and likely voters— informing policymakers, encouraging discussion, and raising awareness on critical issues of the day. © 2016 Public Policy Institute of California The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. PPIC is a public charity. It does not take or support positions on any ballot measures or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political pa rties or candidates for public office. Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source. Research publications reflect the views of the authors and do no t necessarily reflect the views of the staff, officers, or board of directors of the Public Policy Institute of California. PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 3 CONTACT Linda Strean 415 -291 -4412 Serina Correa 415 -291 -4417 News Release EMBARGOED: Do not publish or broadcast until 9:00 PDT on Wednesday , May 25 , 2016 . Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: www.ppic.org/main/pressreleaseindex.asp PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: Clinton, Sanders in Close Race— Each Leads Trump in Fall Matchup HARRIS, SANCHEZ LEAD SENATE CONTEST, WITH NEARLY A THIRD OF LI KELY VOTERS UNDECIDED SAN FRANCISCO, May 25, 2016— Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are in a tight race in the Democratic presidential primary, while Donald Trump has the support of most Republican primary likely voters. In potential November matchups, Trump trails both Clinton and Sanders. These are among the key findings in a statewide survey release d today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. Among Democratic primary likely voters, 46 percent support Clinton and 44 percent support Sanders. These voters include Democrats and independents who say they will vote in the Democratic primary. Clinton has a slight lead over Sanders among registered Democrats (49% to 41%). Voters age 45 and older are more likely to support Clinton (59%), while younger voters are more likely to favor Sanders (66%). Both men (46% Sanders, 42% Clinton) and women (49% Clinton, 42% Sanders) are divided. Asked if they would vote for Trump or someone else, most Republican primary likely voters (67%) choose Trump , while 26 percent say they would vote for someone else. Men (72%) are more likely than women (62%) to say they would vote for Trump. In a fall presidential matchup, Clinton has support from 49 percent of likely voters , while 39 percent favor Trump , and another 11 percent would vote for someone else or are undecided. Women support Clinton by a wide margin (61% to 30%) , and men are more likely to favor Trump (49% to 38% Clinton). I n a matchup between Sanders and Trump, 53 percent of likely voters favor Sa nders, 36 percent support Trump, and 11 percent would vote for someone else or are undecided. Sanders has much more support than Trump among women (61% to 28%), but men are more divided (45% Sanders, 43% Trump). Compared to Clinton , Sanders performs bette r against Trump among independents (61% Sanders, 51% Clinton) and among younger voters (77% Sanders, 66% Clinton). Among Democratic primary likely voters, 85 percent of those who support Clinton in the primary would vote for Sanders against Trump in the fall, while 75 percent of Sanders supporters would choose Clinton over Trump. Fewer than half of California’s likely voters (42%) are satisfied with their choice of presidential candidates, lower than in May 2012 (57%). While most Democrats (53%) today are satisfied, just over a third of Republicans (36%) and independents (35%) are. Satisfaction among Republican likely voters has fallen each month since the survey began asking th is question in December 2015. PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 4 “California's June primary finds voters with polarized perceptions that will define their ballot choices,” said Mark Baldassare, PP IC president and CEO. “Most Republicans are unhappy, while most Democrats are satisfied with the political and economic status quo.” Harris, Sanchez Ahead in Senate Primary—Harris Leads in Fall Matchup In the race to replace retiring U .S . Senator Barbara Boxer, nearly a third of likely voters (31%) remain undecided less than a month before the primary. Among the candidates, Democrat Kamala Harris leads with the support of 27 percent of likely voters. Democratic U .S . Representative Loretta Sanchez has the s upport of 19 percent in a race in which the two candidates with the most votes —regardless of party — will advance to the November election. They are followed by Republicans Tom Del Beccaro (8%), Ron Unz (6%), and Duf Sundheim (3%). Among Democratic likely vo ters, Harris leads Sanchez (43% to 32%), with 19 percent undecided. Among Republicans, nearly half (46%) are undecided , as are 35 percent of independents. Latino voters are most likely to support Sanchez (48%), though 19 percent favor Harris. White voters are the most likely to be undecided (36%) or support Harris (24%). If Harris and Sanchez advance to the November election, 34 percent of likely voters say they would vote for Harris and 26 percent would vote for Sanchez (24% volunteer that they would not vote and 15% are undecided). Just under half of Democrats (46%) would vote for Harris, while half of Republicans (51%) say they would not vote. Latinos support Sanchez over Harris. Whites support Harris over Sanchez, with nearly a third saying they would n ot vote. Republican Party’s Favorability Falls Asked for their views on the two major political parties, half of Californians (49%) have a favorable impression of the Democratic Party, while only 23 percent have a favorable view of the Republican Party. Li kely voters are more inclined to have a favorable view of the Democratic Party than the Republican Party (42% to 23%). While favorability toward the Democratic Party is similar today to survey findings in December (51% adults, 47% likely voters favorable), favorability toward the Republican Party has declined by 7 points among all adults (23%, down from 30% in December) and by 10 points among likely voters (23%, down from 33%). Most Democrats (74%) view their party favorably, but only 38 percent of Republicans have a favorable view of theirs—a substantial drop from December when 74 percent of Republicans had a favorable impression of their party . Solid majorities of each racial/ethnic group have an unfavorable impression of the Republican Party (87% black, 69% Asian, 69% Latino, 69% white). “As the presidential primary season comes to a close, the Republican Party's favorability rating has declined while the Democratic Party's favorability rating has held steady,” Baldassare said. “Particularly noteworthy i s the big disconnect on immigration policy between Californians and the Republican front runner.” Most Oppose Building a Wall on the Border The survey asks Californians about two issues being debated in the presidential campaigns:  Immigration policy. A strong majority of likely voters (65%) oppose building a wall along the entire border with Mexico, as Trump has promised to do. There is a stark partisan divide: 86 percent of Democrats and 72 percent of independents oppose building a wall, while 59 percent of Republicans favor it. Asked whether or not undocumented immigrants living in the U nited States should be allowed to stay legally, 75 percent of likely voters favor allowing them to stay. Majorities across parties say undocumented immigrants should be allowed to stay.  U.S. Supreme Court . At a time when the court has issued rulings on a number of polarizing topics, California likely voters are divided in how they rate the court: 46 percent approve of the way the PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 5 court is handling its job and 44 perce nt disapprove. Asked whether they think the Senate should confirm Obama’s nominee, Merrick Garland, to the court, about half of likely voters (51%) say it should (33% should not). Just over half of likely voters (52%) approve of the way President Obama is handling his job. Among those who say they would vote for Clinton in the Democratic primary, 90 percent say they approve of Obama’s job performance. Job approval of the president is slightly lower among those who favor Sanders in the primary (83% approve). Just 12 percent of Republican likely voters approve of the president’s job performance. Only 15 percent of likely voters approve of the way Congress is handling its job. Strong m ajorities across parties disapprove of Congress’ job performance. Californians Balk at Vehicle Fee, Higher Gas Tax The survey asked about the governor’s revised state budget proposal for the next fiscal year, wh ich includes increased spending and funds to pay down state debt and build reserves. After hearing a description of the plan that includes these elements, most likely voters (60%) favor it. The budget also includes a proposal to raise revenue for transportation infrastructure projects with a new fee on all vehicles and an increase in the state gasoline tax. After hearing a description of this part of the governor’s proposal, likely voters are much less likely to support his budget plan (37%). Baldassare note d: “The governor’s budget plan includes a mix of increased spending and savings that has the public's backing, while hi s efforts to increase revenues for surface transportation have hit a serious roadblock.” Asked about other revenue sources for surface transportation projects, 52 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes on a state bond measure to pay for them. The idea of a local sales tax— which several local governments will have on their ballots this year —fares less well: 38 percent of likely voters would vote yes on such a measure, far short of the two -thirds majority required for passage. With the state project ed to have a budget surplus of several billion dollars, Californians were asked whether they would prefer to pay down state debt and build up the reserve or use part of the money to restore some social service programs that were cut in recent years. Likely voters prefer paying down debt (55% to 40% restore funding). In the wake of his budget revision, Governor Brown has a job approval rating of 50 percent among likely voters. The legislature’s job approval rating is lower, at 38 percent among likely voters. Majorities Favor Legalizing Marijuana, Raising Cigarette Tax The survey asked about three issues likely to be on the November ballot:  Marijuana legalization. A majority (60%) of likely voters say that, in general, marijuana use should be legal , and 37 percent say it should not be legal . It is estimated that the initiative to legalize marijuana —if passed—would generate about $1 billion in tax revenue annually, most of which would be directed toward substance abuse preventio n and treatment. Among likely voters, 43 percent say that spending the revenue this way is very important.  Extension of the Proposition 30 tax on high -earners. A majority of likely voters (58%) favor extending the tax on earnings above $250,000 for 12 years to fund education and health care (39% oppose).  Increase in cigarette tax . A strong majority of likely voters (67%) favor increasing the tax on the purchase of cigarettes to fund health care (31% oppose). Majorities across parties are in favor. “California seems poised to show its blue state credentials in the fall,” Baldassare said. “Voters today are signaling their early support for Democratic statewide can didates, tax initiatives, and marijuana legalization.” PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 6 Election and National Issues Key Findings  Fewer than half of likely voters (42%) are satisfied with their choice of presidential candidates; Democrats are much more likely than Republicans or independents to be satisfied. Hillary Clinton (46%) and Bernie Sanders ( 44%) are in a close race in the Democratic primary , while Donald Trump has the support of 6 7 percent of Rep ublican primary likely voters . In potential general election matchups, Trump trails both Clinton and Sanders . (page s 7, 8 )  Nearly six in 10 likely voters (57%) are satisfied with their choice of candidates for the open U.S. Senate seat; Democrats are much more likely than Republicans and independents to be satisfied. Three in 10 likely voters are unsure how they would vote if the primary were held today. As we found in March, Democrats Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez are currently the top two vote -getter s. In a November matchup, Harris leads Sanchez by 8 points . (page 9)  Six in 10 Californians (61 %) approve of President Obama, while three in 10 (28%) approve of Congress . (page 10)  Overwhelmingly , with majorities across parties , Californians say undocume nted immigrants currently in the United States should be able to stay legally if they meet certain requirements. Californians overall also overwhelmingly oppose building a wall along the Mexican border , though a majority of Republicans (59 %) favor this proposal. (page 11 )  Californians are divided on their opinion of the Supreme Court; half think the Senate should confirm Merrick Garland. (page 12)  About half of Californians (49%) view the Democratic Party favorably; one in four (23%) have a favorable i mpression of the Republican Party. (page 13) 61 28 0 20 40 60 80 May-12 May-13May-14May-15May-16 Percent all adults President Obama U.S. Congress Approval ratings of federal elected officials 49 53 39 36 0 20 40 60 80 Clinton Trump Sanders Trump Percent likely voters Potential November presidential matchups 4447 47 58 55 52 46 51 49 31 28 32 35 37 33 29 30 23 0 20 40 60 80 2010 201120122013201420152016 Percent Democratic Party Republican Party Party favorability over time PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 7 California Presidential Primary On June 7, California voters will weigh in on the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations. A majority of likely voters—including majorities across parties —say they are following news about the candidates very closely . Attention to news today (55% very closely, 34% fairly) is higher than in May 2012 (42% very closely, 4 4% fairly ). About four in 10 likely voters (42%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates for president —lower than in May 2012 (57%). Most Democrats (5 3%) today are satisfied, while fewer than half of R epublicans (36 %) and independent s (35%) are satisfied. Satisfaction among Republican likely voters has fallen each month since we began asking this question in December 2015 . Among Democratic primary likely voters ( including Democrats and independent voters who say they will vote in the Democratic primary), support for Hillary Clinton is at 46 percent, while 44 percent support Bernie Sanders. Clinton has a slight lead over Sanders among registered Democrats (49% to 41%). As we found in March, likely voters age 45 a nd older are more likely to support Clinton (59 %), while those younger than 45 are more likely to support Sanders (66%). Latino voters are slightly more likely to support Clinton (52 % to 43%), while white voters are more divided (47% Clinton, 41% Sanders ). Also divided are men (42% Clinton, 46% Sanders) and women (49% Clinton, 42% Sanders ). Sanders leads Clinton among those who are very liberal (64% to 35%). Clinton leads Sanders among t hose who describe themselves as politically somewhat liberal (54% to 33%) or middle -of -the -road (55% to 37%) . “If the 2016 Democratic primary for president were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?” Democratic primary likely voters only Likely voters Age Gender 18 to 44 45 and older Men Women Hillary Clinton 46% 27% 59% 42% 49% Bernie Sanders 44 66 28 46 42 Someone else 4 2 6 6 3 Would not vote in presidential primary (volunteered) 1 –22 – Don't know 4 4 5 3 5 With t he Republican nomination for president essentially decided since Donald Trump is the only candidate remaining in the race, we asked Republican primary likely voters if t hey would vote for Donald Trump or someone else . Most Republican likely voters (6 7%) say the y would vote for Trump , and 26 percent say t hey would vote for someone else; 6 percent are undecided . Men (72%) are more likely than women (62%) to support Trump. Likely voters who describe themselves as politically very conservative (76%) are much more likely than voters who describe themselves as somewhat conservative (56%) to support Trump. 53 36 35 0 20 40 60 80 Dec-15 Jan-16Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16May-16 Percent likely voters DemocratRepublicanIndependent Satisfaction with choices of candidates in the election for U.S. president in 2016 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 8 Presidential Race Looking ahead to potential presidential election matchups, Donald Trump trails Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders among likely voters . In a Clinton -Trump matchup, Hillary Clinton has the support of 49 percent of likely voter s, while 39 percent support Trump and another 11 percen t would vote for someone else (7 %) or are undecided ( 4%). Eighty -five percent of Democratic likely voters support Clinton and 7 8 percent of Republicans would vote for Trump, while half of independents support Clinton (51% , 33 % Trump). Most Latino likely voters support Clinton (71%, 17% Trump), but whites are more divided (40 % Clinton, 49% Trump). Women support Clinton o ver Trump by a wide margin (6 1% to 30% ), while men are more likely to support Trump (49 % to 38% ). Clinton leads Trump among like ly voters age 18 to 34 (66% to 2 8%), while those age 35 and older are divided (45 % Clinton, 42% Trump). Support for Clinton declines as income level increase s (6 8% under $40,000; 49% $ 40,000 to $80,000; 40 % $ 80,000 or higher). “If the November 8 presidential election were being held today, and these were the candidates, would you vote for ?” All likely voters Likely voters Party Race/Ethnicity Dem Rep Ind Latinos Whites Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 49% 85% 9% 51% 71% 40% Donald Trump, the Republican 39 11 78 33 17 49 Someone else (volunteered) 7 1 8 10 9 7 Don’t know 4 2 5 6 3 4 In a Sanders -Trump matchup, Bernie Sanders has the support of 5 3 percent of likely voters , 36 percent would vote for Donald Trump , and another 1 1 percent would vote for someone else ( 7%) or are undecided (4%). Most Democratic (85%) and independent (61%) likely voters support Sanders, while most Republicans support Trump (73% ). Three in 10 Latinos support Sanders (73% , 14% Trump) , while whites are more divided (4 3% Sanders, 45% Trump). Women support Sanders over Trump by a wide margin (61% to 28 %), but men a re more divided (45 % Sanders, 4 3% Trump). Support for Sanders is especially high among those age 18 to 34 (77% Sanders, 17% Trump), while those age 35 and older are more divided (47% Sanders , 40% Trump). Support for Sanders declines as income level increas es (67 % under $40,000; 56% $40,000 to $80,000; 45% $80,000 or higher). “If the November 8 presidential election were being held today, and these were the candidates, would you vote for?” All likely voters Likely voters Party Race/Ethnicity Dem Rep Ind Latinos Whites Bernie Sanders, the Democrat 53% 85% 15% 61% 73% 43% Donald Trump, the Republican 36 9 73 26 14 45 Someone else (volunteered) 7 4 7 6 10 7 Don’t know 4 2 6 7 2 4 There are notable differences in the two matchups : in a matchup with Trump, Sanders has more support than Clinton among independents (61% Sanders, 51% Clinton) and younger vo ters (77% Sanders, 66% Clinton). Among Democratic primary likely voters who support Clinton in the primary, 85 percent would vote for Sanders against Trump; 75 percent of Sanders supporters would vote for Clinton over Trump. PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 9 U.S. Senate Race Less than a month before the June election , nearly six in 10 likely voters (57%) are satisfied with their choice of candidates in the election for U.S. Senate. Most Democrats (7 1% ) are satisfied, while fewer independents (55%) and Republicans (43 %) are satisfied. Sati sfaction has increased since March (47%). Under California's top -two primary system , in place since 2011, the primary race to replace retiring Senator Barbara Boxer includes all candidates, regardless of party , and is open to all registered voters. The top two vote-getter s will advance to the November election. Today, 31 percent of likely voters say they are undecided. Among the candidates, state attorney general Kamala Harris, a Democrat, leads with support from 27 percent of likely voters, followed by De mocratic U.S. Representative Loretta Sanchez at 19 percent. Tom Del Beccaro, former chairman of the state Republican Party, has support from 8 percent of likely voters ; Ron Unz has 6 percent support and Duf Sundheim, also a former chairman of the state Rep ublican Party, has 3 percent support . Results were similar in our March survey, which was conducted before Ron Unz entered the race (26% Harris, 17% Sanchez, 31% don’t know). Today, Harris leads Sanchez among Democratic likely voters ( 43 % to 3 2%), with one in five ( 1 9 % ) undecided. Among Republican voters, 46 percent say they are undecid ed, while 35 percent of independents are undecided. Latino voters are most likely to support Sanchez (48 %), but 19 percent would vote for Harris. White voters are most lik ely to be undecided (36% ) or to support Harris (24 %). “If the June primary for U.S. senator were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?” All likely voters Likely voters Party Race/Ethnicity Dem Rep Ind Latinos Whites Kamala Harris, a Democrat 27% 43 % 7 % 33 % 19 % 24 % Loretta Sanchez, a Democrat 19 32 5 13 48 12 Tom Del Beccaro, a Republican 8 1 16 6 2 10 Ron Unz, a Republican 6 – 13 4 2 7 Duf Sundheim, a Republican 3 – 9 3 1 4 Someone else 6 4 4 6 9 6 Don’t know 31 19 46 35 18 36 If the current top -two primary leaders, both Democrats, a dvance to the general electi on, 34 percent of likely voters say they would support Harris, while 26 percent would support Sanchez . Twenty -four percent volu nteer that they would not vote , and 15 percent are undecided. Just under half of Democrats support Harris, while half of Republicans say they would not vote. Latinos support Sanchez over Harris , while whites support Harris over Sanchez , with three in 10 saying they would not vote. “If the November 8 election for the U.S. Senate were being held today, and these were the top -two candidates in the June Primary, would you vote for?” All likely voters Likely voters Party Race/Ethnicity Dem Rep Ind Latinos Whites Kamala Harris, a Democrat 34% 46 % 20 % 40 % 23 % 32 % Loretta Sanchez, a Democrat 26 36 13 27 53 21 Neither/would not vote (volunteered) 24 4 51 15 13 29 Don’t know 15 14 16 17 12 18 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 10 Approval Ratings of Federal Elected Officials Six in ten Californians (61%) and about half of likely voters (52%) approve of the way President Obama is handling his job. The president’s approval rating was similar in March (59% adults, 53% likely voters ), and a majority of Californians have expressed approval since January 2015. Californians are more likely to approve of the president than are adults nationwide (5 1% ), according to a May ABC/Washington Post poll. There are stark partisan differences : Democrats (84%) are far more likely than independents (57%) and Republicans (15%) to approve of the president. Across racial/ethnic groups, blacks (90%), Asians (74%), and Latinos (69%) are much more likely than whites (47%) to approve of the way President Obama is handling his job. Younger Calif ornians (age 18 to 34) are far more likely than older adults (age 55 or older) to approve of the president (76% to 49%). Among likely voters who say they would vote for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary, 90 percent say they approve of the way Presi dent Obama is handling his job. Among those who say they would vote for Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary, 83 percent approve of the president. Notably, only 12 percent of Republican likely voters approve of the president’s job performance. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president of the United States?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Approve 61% 84 % 15 % 57 % 52 % Disapprove 36 15 83 37 46 Don't know 2 1 2 6 2 Twenty-eight percent of Californians and 15 percent of likely voters approve of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job. Approval was similar in March (24% adults, 14% likely voters ) and has been similar over the past year. Californians in our sur vey are twice as likely to approve of Congres s compared to adults nationwide (14 % in a May CBS News/New York Times poll ). Unlike the stark partisan divide in the president’s approval ratings, approval of Congress is low across parties. Fewer than one in four Democrats (21%), independents (20%), and Republicans (17%) approve of the way Congress is handling its job. Across racial/ethnic groups, Latinos (43%), Asians (41%), and blacks (34%) are far more likely than whites (12%) to approve. Regionally, reside nts in Los Angeles ( 32 %) are the most likely to approve of Congress , while residents in the Central Valley (23%) are the least likely to express approval . Approval of Congress is lower among college graduates (19%) than among those with no college educatio n (38%). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Approve 28% 21 % 17 % 20 % 15 % Disapprove 67 75 81 75 82 Don't know 6 4 3 5 3 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 11 Immigration Policy An overwhelming majority of Californians (83%) say there should be a way for undocumented immigrants to stay in the United States legally, if certain requirements are met. Fourteen percent say they should not be allowed to stay. Overwhelming majorities of Democrats (90%) and independents (86%), as well as a majority of Republicans (58%), say undocumented immigrants should be allowed to stay. Indeed, three in four or more Californians across all regions and demographic groups say undocumented im migrants should be allowed to stay if certain requirements are met. A similar 82 percent said immigrants should be allowed to stay in our January survey . Californians are slightly more likely to say undocumented immigrants should be able to stay lega lly than adults nationwide (75% in a March 2016 Pew Research Center poll). “Which comes closer to your view about how to handle undocumented immigrants who are living in the U.S.? There should be a way for them to stay in the country legally, if certain requirements are met or they should not be allowed to stay in this country legally ?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Allowed to stay legally 83% 90 % 58 % 86 % 75 % Not allow ed to stay legally 14 7 38 12 22 Don't know 2 3 4 2 3 Donald Trump has promised that if he is elected president he will build a wall along the entire U.S. border with Mexico . How do Californians feel about this proposal? Seven in ten (71%) C alifornians and 65 percent of likely voters oppose building a wall along the Mexican border. Just 26 percent of Californians and a third of likely voters express support . Californians in our survey are less supportive of building a wall than adults nationw ide (34%, according to a March Pew Research Center poll) . There are stark party differences on this issue in California. While an overwh elming majority of Democrats (86 %) and a solid majority of independents (72%) oppose building a wall along the entire border with Mexico, 59 percent of Republicans favor this proposal. Today, majorities across all regions and demographic groups oppose building a wall. But men are somewhat more likely than women to favor this proposal (30% to 21%). Support for building a w all along the Mexican border increases as age and income increase. Across racial/ethnic groups, whites (39%) and Asians (26%) are more likely than blacks (15%) and Latinos (11%) to favor building a wall. Notably, among Republican likely voters who say they will vote for Trump in the primary, 78 percent favor building a wall along the Mexican border . “All in all, would you favor or oppose building a wall along the entire border with Mexico?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Favor 26% 13 % 59 % 25 % 33 % Oppose 71 86 37 72 65 Don't know 3 1 4 4 2 26 34 71 62 0 20 40 60 80 100 Californians Adults nationwide* Percent Favor Oppose *March2016 Pew Research Center poll Support for building a wall along the entire border with Mexico PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 12 Supreme Court Over the last year, the U.S. Supreme Court has issued rulings on a number of hotly debated topics , such as gay marriage and the Affordable Care Act. In light of recent rulings, how do Californians rate the Supreme Court? Today, Californians are divided , with 45 percent approving of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job while a similar proportion disapprove (42%). Approval of the Supreme Court was slightly higher in August 2005 (52% approve), shortly after Justice Sandra Day O’Connor announced her retirement. In a February CBS News poll, 49 percent of adults nationwide approve d of the way the Supreme Court wa s handling its job just days after the death of Justice A ntonin Scalia. Across parties, slightly more than half of California Democrats (53%) approve of the Supreme Court’s job performance , while a majority of Republicans (56%) disapprove. Independents are more divided (48% approve, 41% disapprove). Asians (62%) are more likely than whites (44%), Latinos (41%), and blacks (40%) to approve of the Court . Californians age 18 to 34 (51%) are more likely than those age 55 or older (40%) to approve of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job. “Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Approve 45% 53 % 33 % 48 % 46 % Disapprove 42 37 56 41 44 Don 't know 13 10 12 11 10 On March 16, President Obama nominated federal judge Merrick Garland to fill the current Supreme Court vacancy. Senate Republicans have refused to hold confirmation hearings for the nominee. Today, half of Californians (50%) say that the Senate should confirm Judge Garland to the Supreme Court , while one in four (24%) say the Senate should not. A quarter of Californians say they have not heard enough to have an opinion (14%) or ar e unsure (11%). In a March Pew Research Center poll, 46 percent of adults nationwide said the Senate should confirm Merrick Garland while 30 percent said the Senate should not. T here are stark partisan differences on this issue : a strong majority of Democrats (72%) are in favor of Judge Garland’s confirmation , while a solid majority of Republicans (64%) are opposed. Among independents, a slight majority (54%) favor confirming Judge Garland , while one in four (24%) say the Senate should no t confirm him. College graduates (56%) are more likely than those with no college education (45%) to say that the Senate should confirm Judge Garland. Across racial/ethnic groups, blacks (62%) and Asians (61%) are more likely than whites (47%) and Latinos (46%) to say the Senate should confirm him. “As you ma y know, Barack Obama has nominated federal judge Merrick Garland to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court. From what you've seen and heard so far, do you think the Senate should or should not confirm Merrick Garland?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Should confirm 50% 72 % 22 % 54 % 51 % Should not confirm 24 10 64 24 33 Have not heard enough to have an opinion (volunteered) 14 10 9 10 9 Don't know 11 8 5 11 7 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 13 Party Favorability With the 2016 election campaigns in full swing, how do Californians feel about the two major political parties? About half of Californians (49 %) have a favorable impression of the Democratic Party , and 23 percent have a favorable impression of the Republican Party. Among adults nationwide in the ABC/Washington Post poll, 48 percent have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party and 36 percent have a favorable view of the Republican Party. California l ikely voters are more inclined to have favorable impressions of the Democratic Party (42 %) than of th e Republican Party (23 %). While the Democratic Party ’s favorability was similar in December (51% favorable), the Republican Party ’s favorability was 7 percent age points higher (30%). Among likely voters, Republican Party favorability has declined by 1 0 perc entage points since December (23 %, down from 33%). According to the most recent report from the California Secretary of State, 44 percent of California voters are registered as Democrats, 28 percent as Republicans, 5 percent with other parties, and 24 percent as independents (i.e., no party preference). “Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of the Democratic Party?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Favorable 49% 74 % 10 % 41 % 42 % Unfavorable 44 23 87 50 54 Don't know 7 2 3 9 4 Among registe red Democrats, three in four (74 %) view their part y favorably, while one in four (23 %) view it unfavorably. Among registered Republicans, 38 percent view their party favorably —a notable decrease from December , when 74 percent had a favorable impression of their party. Half of registered independents have an unfavorable impres sion of the Democratic Party (50 %), and a strong majority have an unfavorable impression of the Republican Party (69 %). Across racial/ethnic grou ps, blacks (70%) and Latinos (61 %) are much more likely than Asians (46 %) and whites (38% ) to have a favorable impression of the Democratic Party. S olid majorities of each racial/ethnic group have an unfavor able impression of the Republican Party (69% Asian s, 69% Latino s, 69% whites, 87 % black s). “Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable imp ression of the Republican Party?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Favorable 23% 8 % 38 % 23 % 23 % Unfavorable 70 90 57 69 75 Don't know 7 2 4 8 3 68 75 72 86 83 77 73 76 74 54 55 59 72 58 66 58 74 38 0 20 40 60 80 1002010201120122013201420152016 Percent favorable Democrats Republicans Favorability toward their own party over time PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 14 State and Fiscal Issues Key Findings  Fifty -two percent of Californians approve of Governor Jerry Brown and 43 percent approve of the state legislature . (page 15)  Three in 10 Californians name jobs and the economy as the most important issue facing people in the state. Californian s are divided alon g party lines about whether the state is headed in the right direction or will have good times financially . (page 16)  Forty -four percent of California adults and 51 percent of likely voters say the state budget situation is a big problem . Californians are divided across parties in t heir preferences for using the budget surplus. (page 17)  Solid majorities of Californians and likely voters favor the governor’s budget proposal when his transportation plan is not mentioned . Support drops when the plan— which includes a new fee and a higher gasoline tax —is outlined . (page 18)  About six in 10 adults and likely voters favor extending the Proposition 30 income taxes to fund education and health care. About seven in 10 adults and likely voters favor increasing the tax on the purchase of c igarettes to fund health care . (page 19)  Majorities of Californians and likely voters would vote yes on a state bond to pay for surface transportation projects; D emocrats and Republicans are on opposing sides. About four in 10 adults an d likely voters wou ld vote yes to raise the local sales tax to fund transportation pro jects . (page 20)  M ajorit ies of adults and likely voters continue to favor marijuana legalization . Forty -five percent of Californians think it is very important that revenues from taxing marijuana go to substance abu se prevention and treatment . (page 21) 52 43 0 20 40 60 80 100 May-12 May-13May-14May-15 May-16 Percent all adults Governor Brown California Legislature Approval ratings of state elected officials 50 58 2551 39 3262 40 0 20 40 60 80 100 All adults DemRep IndPercent Good times Bad times Economic outlook for state 55 43 0 20 40 60 80 2010 201120122013201420152016 Percent all adults Yes, legal No, not legal Marijuana legalization PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 15 Approval Ratings of State Elected Officials Following the May budget revision , 52 percent of adults and 5 0 percent of likely voters approve of the way Jerry Brown is handling his job as California governor. Brown’s approval rating was s imilar in April (54% adults, 56% likely voters) and last Ma y (5 2% adults, 5 4% likely voters). Today, the governor’s approval rating is much higher among Democrats ( 66%) and independents (59 %) than among Republicans (2 7% ). Approval is slightly higher in the San Francisco Bay Area (58 %) than in other regions. Asians (59%), b lacks (58%), and Latinos (55% ) are somewhat more likely t han whites (48%) to approve. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California? ” Approve Disapprove Don’t know All adults 52% 28 % 20 % Likely voters 50 39 10 Party Democrats 66 21 14 Republicans 27 63 10 Independents 59 27 14 Region Central Valley 51 28 21 San Francisco Bay Area 58 18 24 Los Angeles 52 31 17 Orange/San Diego 50 33 17 Inland Empire 52 29 20 As state lawmakers approach the June budget deadline, 43 percent of adults and 38 percent of likely voters approve of the way the California Legislature is handling its job. Approval of the legislature was in a similar range in April (4 8% adults, 4 0% likely voters), but it was somewhat lower last May ( 37 % adult s, 30% likely voters). Today, a majority of Democrats (5 4% ) approve of the legislature , while fewer independents ( 44% ) and Republicans (1 7% ) hold this view. Asians (54 %), Latinos (51%) , and blacks ( 49%) are more likely than whites (33 %) to approve. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job?” Approve Disapprove Don’t know All adults 43% 37 % 20 % Likely voters 38 49 13 Party Democrats 54 29 17 Republicans 17 70 14 Independents 44 42 14 Region Central Valley 37 42 22 San Francisco Bay Area 47 32 22 Los Angeles 43 40 17 Orange/San Diego 44 36 20 Inland Empire 44 30 26 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 16 Overall Mood What is the public’s mood before the California Primary on June 7? When asked to identify the most important issue facing people in California today, most say either jobs and the economy (30%) or water and the drought (16%) . The same issues were on top in March (27% economy, 20% water) and last May (39% water, 20% economy) , but mention s of wat er and the drought have declined . Today, Central Valley residents are slightly more likely than others to mention water. Likely voters and all adults hold similar views on the top two issues . “Thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today?” Top five issues All adults Region Likely voters Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Jobs, economy 30% 29 % 29% 33% 26% 34% 32 % Water, drought 16 23 16 11 18 14 16 Immigration, illegal immigration 6 3 2 7 11 9 6 Education, schools, teachers 6 3 8 6 7 9 9 Crime, gangs, drugs 5 5 4 6 3 5 3 Californians are divided about the direction of the state. Fifty-one percent of all adults and 4 5 percent of likely voters say that things in California are generally going in the right direction. The view that the state is headed in the right direction was similar in March (5 0% adults, 4 5% likely voters) and slightly lower last Ma y ( 45 % adults, 4 0% likely voters). Today, Democrats (6 6% ) are more likely than independents ( 52%) and Republicans (1 9% ) to say that things are going in the right direction. San Francisco Bay Area residents ( 62 %) are more likely to say that things are going in the right direction t han residents in other regions ( 49% Inland Empire, 49% Orange/San Diego, 48 % Los Angeles, 43% Central Valley). Blacks (64%), Asians ( 62 %), and Latinos (55%) are much more likely than whites (42% ) to have this positive outl ook. “Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Right direction 51% 66 % 19 % 52 % 45 % Wrong direction 43 30 78 41 51 Don’t know 6 5 3 6 4 When it comes to the state’s economic outlook, half of all adults (50%) and 45 percent of likely voters say that California will have good times financially in the next 12 months. Expectations for good economic times were similar in March ( 51 % adults, 4 6% likely voters) and last May ( 48 % adults, 44 % likely voters). Today, Democrats (5 8% ) and independents (51%) are twice as likely as Republicans (25%) to expect good economic times . Half or more residents in Los Angeles (55%), the Inland Empire (5 4%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (51%) expect good economic times ( 46% Central Valley, 44% Orange/San Diego ). Latinos (59%) and Asians (54%) are somewhat more likely than blacks (46%) and whites (43%) to expect good economic times. Men (54%) are slightly more likely than women (47%) to have positive economic expectations, and these expectations decline with age. PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 17 State Budget Situation As the governor and legislature deliberate spending and revenues for the next year, 44 percent of California adults and 51 percent of likely voters say the budget situation is a big problem. Most Republicans ( 76 % ) call the budget a big problem , compared to far fewer independents (44%) and Democrats (34%) . The view that the budget situation is a big problem was similar in March (4 8% adults, 55% likely voters ) and last Ma y (4 7% adults, 5 2% likely voters). B ut this view is much less common now than it was a few years ago when the state had a large gap between annual spending and revenues . “D o you think the state budget situation in California —that is, the balance between government spending and revenues —is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Big problem 44% 34 % 76 % 44 % 51 % Somewhat of a problem 37 45 17 41 33 Not a problem 13 16 5 11 13 Don't know 6 5 2 5 3 Wh en asked about how they would prefer to use the projected budget surplus, just under half of adults prefer to pay down debt and build the reserve (45%) while half would restore funding for social service s (50%). L ikely voters prefer paying down debt and building up the reserve (55 %, 40% restore funding ). The se responses are consistent with results from January for all adults (48% pay debt ; 48% restore funding), and likely voters (54% pay debt ; 42% restore funding). Today, the majority of Democrats ( 60 %) prefer to restor e funding , while most Republicans (7 2%) and half of independents (5 2%) prefer to pay down debt and build the reserve . Blacks (62%), Latinos (59%), and Asians (52%) are more likely than whites (40 %) to prefer restoring funding for social services . Support for restoring social service funding is higher among women (5 7% ) than men (4 2%) and declines sharply with income . “The state is projected to have a budget surplus of several billion dollars. Would you prefer to pay down state debt and build up the reserve or would you prefer to use some of this money to restore some funding for social service programs t hat were cut in recent years?” 45 3672 52 50 60 2240 0 20 40 60 80 All adults DemRep Ind Percent Pay down debt, build reserve Restore social service funding 45 50 0 20 40 60 80 Percent all adults PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 18 Governor’s Budget Proposal On May 13, Governor Brown released his revised state budget proposal for the next fiscal year, which includes increased spending, funds to pay down state debt and build reserves, and a proposal to raise revenue for transportation infrastructure projects. After hearing a description of the budget that excludes the transportation proposal, solid majorities of adults (65%) and likely voters (6 0% ) are in favor. Democrats (7 4%) and independen ts (69%) are far more likely than Republicans (4 5% ) to favor the budget. At least six in 10 across regions and racial/ethnic, age, education, and income groups are in favor. Favorability toward the budget is linked to approval of Governor Brown, with 78 pe rcent of those who approve of the go vernor’s job performance favoring his budget. Last May, 73 percent of adults and 70 percent of likely voters favored the governor’s budget proposal. “Governor Brown recently released a revised budget plan for the next fi scal year that will increase spending on K –12 and higher education, health and human services, prisons, and courts. The plan includes funds to pay down the state’s debt and puts $2 billion into the state’s rainy day fun d. In general, do you favor or op pose the governor's budget plan?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Favor 65 % 74 % 45 % 69 % 60 % Oppose 26 20 45 22 32 Have not heard anything about the budget (volunteered) 3 2 3 3 3 Don't know 6 4 7 6 5 Governor Brown ’s budget proposal includes a new fee on vehicles and an increase in the state gasoline tax to fund transportation infrastructure projects. After this element is described , support for the governor’s budget plan drops to 3 5 percent among adults and 37 percent among likely voters. Across parties, a majority of Democrats (5 3% ) are in favor, but a majority of independents (55%) and eight in 10 Republicans (82%) are opposed. Majorities across age, education, and income groups are opposed. Fewer than h alf of those who initially favored the g overnor’s budget plan (47 %) remain in favor after hearing about the transportation proposal. In January, we assessed attitudes toward the governor’s initial budget proposal after providing a description that included i ncreased spending, funds to pay down debt and build the reserve, and the transportation proposal. At that time, we found that 48 percent of adults and 46 percent of likely voters favored the governor’s budget plan. “The proposed budget plan also includes a new fee on all vehicles and an increase in the state gasoline tax to fund transportation infrastructure projects. Knowing this, in general, do you favor or oppose the governor's budget plan? ” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Favor 35 % 53 % 15 % 38 % 37 % Oppose 61 44 82 55 59 Have not heard anything about the budget (volunteered) 2 1 1 3 1 Don't know 3 2 1 4 2 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 19 Raising Revenues In November 2012, voters passed Proposition 30 (55% yes) , which included a temporary income tax increase on wealth y Californians and a temporary state sales tax increase. This November ’s ballot is likely to include an initiative that would extend the Proposition 30 tax on earnings above $250,000 for 12 years to fund education and health care . About s ix in 10 adults (64% ) and likely voters (58% ) favor extending the tax for that purpose. Support for this proposal was similar in March (61% adults, 58% likely voters). Today, s olid majorities of Democrats (80%) and independents (68 %) favor extend ing the income tax increase , compared to only 31 percent of Republicans. Though majorities across regions and demographic groups favor the extension, support decreases as age and income levels increase . Those who say the state budget situation is a big problem are slightly more likely to favor extending the Proposition 30 income tax than to oppose it (52% to 46%) . Those who have a more positive view of the budget situation are much more likely to favor the extension (7 3% somewhat of a problem, 81 % not a problem). “As you may know, voters passed Proposition 30 in November 2012. It increased taxes on earnings over $250,000 until 2018 and sales taxes by one quarter cent until 2016. Do you favor or oppose extending for 12 years the tax increase on earnings over $250,000 to fund education and health care?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Favor 64% 80 % 31 % 68 % 58 % Oppose 32 17 66 29 39 Don't know 4 3 3 3 2 The November ballot may also include a tax increase on cigarettes to fund health care. About seven in 10 adults and likely voters favor increasing cigarette taxes for this purpose. In January, 53 percent of adults said that raising cigarette taxes to pay for health care was very important to them. Today, m ajorities across parties are in favo r, though Democrats (82%) are much more likely to favor an in crease than are independents (68 %) or Republicans (5 3% ). Across regions and racial/ethnic, age, education, and income groups , at least six in 10 favor increasing the tax on cigarettes. The initia tive that may appear on the November ballot would increase the cigarette tax by $2 per pack. In June 2012, Proposition 29 —which would have raised the state cigarette tax by $1 per pack to fund cancer research —fell short of the simple majority needed to pas s ( 49.8 % yes) . “ In general, would you favor or oppose increasing the tax on the purchase of cigarettes to fund health care?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Favor 69% 82 % 53 % 68 % 67 % Oppose 29 17 45 31 31 Don't know 2 2 2 2 2 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 20 Surface Transportation Funding In January, we asked Californians about their preferences for increas ing the state government’s current level of funding for roads and infrastructure projects . W e found that a plurality preferred using only surplus budget funds (31%), with an additional 24 percent preferring to issue state bonds. What is the level of support today for a state bond to fund transportation? Sixty -one percent of adults and 5 2 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes on a state bond mea sure to pay for surface transportation projects if it appeared on the ballot . Across parties, Democrats (69 %) are most likely to support a state bond measure , followed by 58 percent of independents and 37 percent of Republicans. Majorities across regions w ould vote yes ( 67% San Francisco Bay Area, 66% Los Angeles, 61% Orange/San Diego, 56% Inland Empire, 54% Central Valley). Strong majorities of Asians (76%) , blacks (74 %), and Latinos (69 %) would vote yes, and about half of whites ( 51%) would do so. In April , we found higher levels of support for a statewide bond measure to pay for school construction projects (76% adults, 63% likely voters), with at least half in favor across parties. “If the state ballot had a bond measure to pay for surface transportation projects in California, would you vote yes or no ?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Yes 61% 69 % 37 % 58 % 52 % No 32 26 56 36 42 Don't know 6 4 6 6 7 Another potential revenue source for surface transportation projects is a local sales tax increase, which has required a two -thirds majority since Proposition 13 passed. Local voters have passed these types of measures, and several local governments will h ave transportation tax measures on their ballot s this year. Statewide , we find that only 43 percent of adults and 38 percent of likely voters would vote yes on such a local tax, far short of the two-thirds majority requirement . Slightly more than half of Democrats (5 4% ) would vote yes, while majorities of independents (57%) and Republicans (73%) would vote no. Across the state, support does not exceed 50 percent in any region. Support for a local sales tax increase to pay for transportation projec ts is far higher among those who would vote yes on a transportation bond than among those who would vote no on such a bond (6 2% to 12%). Support is also far higher among those who favor the governor’s budget, including his transportation proposal, than amo ng those who oppose it (67% to 29% ). “If your local ballot had a measure to increase the local sales tax to pay for surface transportation projects in your part of California, would you vote yes or no ?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Yes 43% 54 % 23 % 37 % 38 % No 52 44 73 57 58 Don't know 5 2 4 6 5 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 21 Marijuana Legalization An initiative planned for th is November ’s ballot would legalize the recreational use of marijuana in California. In November 2010, Proposition 19 , which also sought to legalize marijuana, fell short of the majority needed to pass (46.5% yes). Today, 55 percent of adults and 60 percent of likely voters say that, in general, the use of marijuana should be legal. Public support was similar last May (54% adults, 56% likely voters). Democrats (6 9% ) and independents (6 5% ) are much more likely than Republicans (45%) to say the use of marijuana should be legal. Two in three adults under age 35 favor legalization, while about half of older adults are in favor. Across racial/ethnic groups, strong majorities of blacks (78% ) and whites (65 %) favor legalization, while fewer Asians (50 %) and Latinos (40%) do so. An overwhelming majority of those who say they have tried marijuana favor legalization (78%), while a sol id majority of those who have never tried it are opposed (63%). Compared to Californians in our survey (5 5% ), adults nationwide in an April CBS/New York Times poll (56%) are about as likely to say the use of marijuana should be legal. “In general, do you think the use of marijuana should be legal or not?” Yes, legal No, not legal Don’t know All adults 55% 43 % 3 % Likely voters 60 37 3 Party Democrats 69 29 2 Republicans 45 54 2 Independents 65 31 4 Age 18 to 34 66 33 1 35 to 54 50 46 3 55 and above 49 48 3 Ever tried marijuana? Yes 78 20 2 No 35 63 3 If the initiative passes , it is estimated that legalize d marijuana would generate about $1 billion in tax revenue annually, most of which would be directed toward substance abuse prevention and treatment programs . M ore than seven in 10 adults and likely say this is very or somewhat important. Those w ho favor or oppose legalization are equally likely to say this is very important (44% legal, 46% not legal). “An initiative on the Nove mber ballot would legalize, tax, and regulate the use of marijuana and is expected to generate about $1 billion annually in state and local tax revenues. How important is it to you that this revenue be spent on substance abuse prevention and treatment . Is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important ?” All adults Party Should marijuana be legal? Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 45% 50 % 34 % 43 % 44 % 46 % Somewhat important 27 28 26 29 31 23 Not too important 10 9 15 12 10 10 Not at all important 15 12 22 11 14 18 Don't know 2 1 3 4 1 3 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 22 Regional Map PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 201 6 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 23 Methodology The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance from associate survey director Dean Bonner , project manager for this survey, and survey research associates David Kordus and Lunna Lopes. The Californians and Their Government series is supported with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. The PPIC Statewide Survey invites input, comments, and suggestions from policy and public opin ion experts and from its own advisory committee, but survey methods, questions, and content are determined solely by PPIC’s survey team. Findings in this report are based on a survey of 1,70 4 California adult residents, including 85 3 interviewed on landline telephones and 85 1 interviewed on cell phones. Interviews took an average of 19 minutes to complete. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights from May 13 –22, 201 6. Landline interviews were conducted using a computer- generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible for selection, and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as six times to increase the likeliho od of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Cell phone interviews were conducted using a c omputer-generated random sample of cell phone numbers. All cell phone numbers with California area codes were eligible for selection, and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as eight times to increase the likelihood of reaching an eligible res pondent. Once a cell phone user was reached, it was verified that this person was age 18 or older, a resident of California, and in a safe place to continue the survey (e.g., not driving). Cell phone respondents were offered a small reimbursement to help defray the cost of the call. Cell phone interviews were conducted with adults who have cell phone service only and with those who have both cell phone and landline service in the household. Live landline and cell phone interviews were conducted by Abt SRB I, Inc., in English and Spanish, according to respondents’ preferences. Accent on Languages, Inc., translated new survey questions into Spanish, with assistance from Renatta DeFever. Abt SRBI uses the U.S. Census Bureau’s 201 0–201 4 American Community Surve y’s (ACS) Public Use Microdata Series for California (with regional coding information from the University of Minnesota’s Integrated Public Use Microdata Series for California) to compare certain demographic characteristics of the survey sample —region, age , gender, race/ethnicity, and education —with the characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the ACS figures. To estimate landline and cell phone service in California, Abt SRBI used 201 4 state -level estima tes released by the National Center for Health Statistics —which used data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the ACS —and 2015 estimates for the West Census Region in the latest NHIS report. The estimates for California were then compared against landline and cell phone service reported in this survey. We also used voter registration data from the California Secretary of State to compare the party registration of registered voters in our sample to party registration statewide. The landline and cell phone samples were then integrated using a frame integration weight, while sample balancing adjusted for differences across regional, age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, telephone service, and party registration groups. The sampling error, ta king design effects from weighting into consideration, is ±3. 3 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total unweighted sample of 1,70 4 adults. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 3. 3 percentage points of what they wo uld be if all adults in California PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 201 6 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 24 were interviewed. The sampling error for unweighted subgroups is larger: for the 1, 338 registered voters, the sampling error is ±3 .8 percent; for the 996 likely voters, it is ±4. 3 percent ; for the 552 Democratic Primary l ikely voters, it is ±5 .7 percent; for the 284 Republican Primary likely voters, it is ±7 .4 percent . Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. We present results for five geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin , Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, “In land Empire” refers to Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, and “Orange/San Diego” refers to Orange and San Diego Counties. Residents of other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes for these less populous areas are not large enough to report separately. We present specific results for non -Hispanic whites, who account for 43 percent of the state’s adult population, and also for Latinos, who account for about a third of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest- growing voter groups. We also present results for non -Hispanic Asians, who make up about 15 percent of the state’s adult population, and non -Hispanic blacks, who comprise about 6 percent. Resul ts for other racial/ethnic groups —such as Native Americans —are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes are not large enough for separate analysis. We compare the opinions of those who report t hey are registered Democrats, registered Republicans, and decline -to -state or independent voters; the results for those who say they are registered to vote in other parties are not large enough for separate analysis. We also analyze the responses of likely voters —so designated per their responses to voter registration survey questions, previous election participation, and current interest in politics. The percentages presented in the report tables and in the questionnaire may not add to 100 due to roundin g. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey results to those in our earlier surveys and to those in national surveys by ABC/Washington Post, CBS News, CBS News /New York Times , and Pew Research Center . Additional details about our methodology can be found at www.ppic.org/content/other/SurveyMethodology.pdf and are available upon request through surveys@ppic.org . PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 25 Questionnaire and Results CALIFORNIANS AND THE IR GOVERNMENT May 13–22, 2016 1 ,704 California Adult Residents: English, Spanish MARGIN OF ERROR ± 3.3% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100 D UE TO ROUNDING First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today? [code, don’t read] 30% jobs, economy 16 water, drought 6 education, schools, t eachers 6 immigration, illegal immigration 5 crime, gangs, drugs 4 environment, pollution, global warming 4 housing costs, housing availability 4 state budget, deficit, taxes 3 government in general , election 3 homelessness 2 health care, health insurance 2 infrastructure 11 other ( specify) 4 don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California? 52% approve 28 disapprove 20 don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job? 43% approve 37 disapprove 20 don’t know Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 51% right direction 43 wrong direction 6 don’t know Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 50% good times 39 bad times 11 don’t know Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote in California? 62% yes [ask Q6a] 38 no [skip to Q7f ] 6a. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or are you registered as a decline-to-state or independent voter? 43% Democrat [ask Q7] 28 Republican [skip to Q7a] 5 another party ( specify) [skip to Q9] 24 independent [skip to Q7b] Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 56% strong 41 not very strong 3 don’t know [skip to Q8a] PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 26 7a. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 51% strong 45 not very strong 4 don’t know [skip to Q8b] 7b. In a few words, can you tell me the main reason why you are registered as a decline- to-state or independent voter and not as a member of a political party? [code, don’t read] 41% not satisfied with parties, parties don’t reflect my views 23 vote for candidates, not party 5 corruption 5 privacy/confidentiality 3 don’t want political mailings or phone calls 2 politicians/ elected officials 15 other (specify) 6 don’t know 7c. And, were you previously registered with a major party or have you always been a decline -to-state or independent voter? 38% previously registered [ask Q7d ] 60 always been a decline -to-state or independent voter [skip to Q7e] 2 don’t know [skip to Q7e] 7d. And what party were you previously registered with? [code, don’t read] 49% Democratic Party 37 Republican Party 4 Libertarian Party 3 American Independent Party 4 other (specify) 3 don’t know 7e. Would you join a political party if it was a good reflection of your political views or do you prefer to be unaffiliated with any specific party? 41% join a political party 55 remain unaffiliated 4 don’t know 7f. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republ ican Party or Democratic Party? 21% Republican Party 52 Democratic Party 20 neither (volunteered) 7 don’t know 7g. [independent voters only] California voters like you will be able to choose between voting in the Democratic primary, or selecting a nonpartisan ballot on June 7th. Both ballots include state proposition measures. Do you plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary or on the nonpartisan ballot? 35% Democratic presidential primary [ask Q8a] 45 nonpartisan ballot [skip to Q9] 8 not planning to vote ( volunteered) [skip to Q9] 12 don’t know [skip to Q9] 8a. [Democratic p rimary likely voters only] If the 2016 Democratic primary for president were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? [rotate names and then ask “or someone else?”] 46% Hillary Clinton 44 Bernie Sanders 4 someone else ( specify) 1 would not vote in presidential primary (volunteered) 4 don’t know [skip to Q9] PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 27 8b. [Republican primary likely voters only] If the 2016 Republican primary for president were being held today, would you vote for Donald Trump or someone else? 67% Donald Trump 26 someone else ( specify) 1 would not vote in presidential primary (volunteered) 6 don’t know 9. [likely voters only] In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for U.S. President in 2016? 42% satisfied 55 not satisfied 1 both (volunteered) 2 don’t know 10. [likely voters only] How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2016 presidential election —very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 55% very closely 34 fairly closely 9 not too closely 3 not at all closely – don’t know [question 11 deleted] [rotate questions 12 and 12a] 12. [likely voters only] If the November 8th presidential election were being held today, and these were the candidates, would you vote fo r: [rotate in same order for Q12 and Q12a] (1) Hillary Clinton, the Democrat [or] (2) Donald Trump, the Republican? 49% Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 39 Donald Trump, the Republican 7 someone else (volunteered, specify) 4 don’t know 12a. [likely voters only] If the November 8th presidential election were being held today, and these were the candidates, would you vote for: [rotate in same order for Q12 and Q12a] (1) Bernie Sanders, the Democrat [or] (2) Donald Trump, the Republican? 53% Be rnie Sanders, the Democrat 36 Donald Trump, the Republican 7 someone else ( volunteered, specify) 4 don’t know 13. [likely voters only] As you may know, California now has a top -two primary system for statewide races in which voters can cast ballots for any candidate, regardless of party, and the two candidates receiving the most votes—regardless of party—will advance to the general electi on. If the June primary for U.S. Senator were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? [ rotate names and then ask “or someone else?”] 27% Kamala Harris , a Democrat 19 Loretta Sanchez, a Democrat 8 Tom Del Beccaro, a Repub lican 6 Ron Unz, a Republican 3 Duf Sundheim , a Republican 6 someone else ( specify) 31 don’t know 14. [likely voters only] In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for U.S. Senate in 2 016? 57% satisfied 21 not satisfied 1 both (volunteered) 21 don’t know 14a. [likely voters only] If the November 8th election for the U.S. Senate were being held today, and these were the top -two candidates in the June Primary, would you vote for: [rotate] (1) Kamala Harris, a Democrat [or] (2) Loretta Sanchez, a Democrat? 34% Kamal a Harris, a Democrat 26 Loretta Sanchez, a Democrat 24 neither/would not vote for U.S. Senator (volunteered ) 15 don’t know PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 28 15. Next, d o you think the state budget situation in California —that is, the balance between government spending and revenues—is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today? 44% big problem 37 somewhat of a problem 13 not a problem 6 don’t know 16. As you may know, voters passed Proposition 30 in November 2012. It increased taxes on earnings over $250,000 until 2018 and sales taxes by one quarter cent until 2016. Do you favor or oppose extending for 12 years the tax increase on earnings over $250,000 to fund education and healthcare? 64% favor 32 oppose 4 don’t know 17. In general, would you favor or oppose increasing the state tax on the purchase of cigarettes to fund healthcare? 69% favor 29 oppose 2 don’t know [question 18 deleted] 19. On another topic, Governor Brown recently released a revised budget plan for the next fiscal year that will increase spending on K –12 and higher education, health and human services, prisons, and courts. The plan includes funds to pay down the state’s debt and puts $2 billion into the state’s rainy day fund. In general, do you favor or oppose the governor’s budget plan? 65% favor 26 oppose 3 haven’t heard anything about the budget (volunteered) 6 don’t know 19a. The proposed budget plan also includes a new fee on all vehicles and an increase in the state gasoline tax to fund transportation infrastructure projects. Knowing this, in general, do you favor or oppose the governor’s budget plan? 35% favor 61 oppose 2 haven’t heard anything about the budget (volunteered) 3 don’t know 20. The state is projected to have a budget surplus of several billion dollars. In general, how would you prefer to use this extra money? [rotate ] (1) Would you prefer to pay down state debt and build up the reserve [or] (2) would you prefer to use some of this money to restore some funding for social service programs that were cut in recent years? 45% pay down debt and build up reserve 50 restore funding for social services 6 don’t know [question 21 deleted ] Next, please t ell me if you would vote yes or no on each of the following proposals to increase state and local funding for surface transportation projects in California. [ rotate questions 22 to 23] 22. If the state ballot had a bond measure to pay for surface transpor tation projects in California, would you vote yes or no? 61% yes 32 no 6 don’t know 23. If your local ballot had a measure to increase the local sales tax to pay for surface transportation projects in your part of California, would you vote yes or no? 43% yes 52 no 5 don’t know PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 29 24. On another topic, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president of the United States? 61% approve 36 disapprove 2 don’t know 25. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job? 28% approve 67 disapprove 6 don’t know [question 26 deleted] Changing topics, 27. Which comes closer to your view about how to handle undocumented immigrants who are living in the U.S.? [rotate ] (1) There should be a way for them to stay in the country legally, if certain requirements are met [or] (2) They should not be allowed to stay in this country legally. 83% allowed to stay legally 14 not allowed to stay legally 2 don’t know 28. All in all, would you favor or oppose building a wall along the entire border with Mexico? 26% favor 71 oppose 3 don’t know 29. On another topic, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job? 45% approve 42 disapprove 13 don’t know 30. As you many know, Barack Obama has nominated federal judge Merrick Garland to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court. From what you've seen and heard so far, do you think the Senate should or should not confirm Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court? 50% should confirm 24 should not confirm 14 have not heard enough to have an opinion (volunteered) 11 don’t know On another topic, [rotate questions 31 and 32] 31. Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of the Democratic Party? 49% favorable 44 unfavorable 7 don’t know 32. Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of the Republican Party? 23% favorable 70 unfavorable 7 don’t know Changing topics, 33. In general, do you think the use of marijuana should be legal, or not? 55% yes, legal 43 no, not legal 3 don’t know 34. An initiative on the November ballot would legalize, tax, and regulate the use of marijuana and is expected to generate about $1 billion annually in state and local tax revenues. How important is it to you that this revenue be spent on substance abuse prevention and treatment. Is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 45% very important 27 somewhat important 10 not too important 15 not at all important 2 don’t know PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 30 34a. Keeping in mind that all of your answers in the survey are confidential, have you ever tried marijuana? (If yes ask: H ave you used marijuana in the last 12 months?) 19% yes have tried marijuana, used in the past year 27 yes, have tried marijuana, not in the past year 54 no, have not tried marijuana 1 don’t know 35. Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order from top to bottom] 13% very liberal 19 somewhat liberal 27 middle -of-the -road 22 somewhat conservative 15 very conservative 3 don’t know 36. Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics —a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 25% great deal 34 fair amount 32 only a little 9 none – don’t know [d1 to d15: demographic questions] PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect Angela Glover Blackwell President and CEO PolicyLink Mollyann Brodie Senior Vice President Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director B ill Lane Center for the American West Stanford University Jon Cohen Vice President of Survey Research SurveyMonkey Joshua J. Dyck Co-Director Center for Public Opinion University of Massachusetts, Lowell Russell Hancock President and CEO Joint Venture Sil icon Valley Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Professor Sol Price School of Public Policy University of Southern California Robert Lapsley President California Business Roundtable Carol S. Larson President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Sonja Petek 2016 Master of Public Policy Candidate Goldman School of Public Policy, UC Berkeley Lisa Pitney Vice President of Government Relations The Walt Disney Company Mindy Romero Founder and Director California Civic Engagement Project at the UC Davis Center for Regional Change Robert K. Ross, MD President and CEO The California Endowment Most Reverend Jaime Soto Bishop of Sacramento Roman Catholic Diocese of Sacramento Carol Whiteside Principal California Strategies The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PPIC BOARD OF DIRECTORS Donna Lucas, Chair Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Mark Baldassare President and CEO Public Policy Institute of California Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect María Blanco Executive Director Undocumented Student Legal Services Center University of California Office of the President Louise Henry Bryson Chair Emerita, Board of Trustees J. Paul Getty Trust A. Marisa Chun Partner McDermott Will & Emery LLP Phil Isenberg Former Chair Delta Stewardship Council Mas Masumoto Author and Farmer Steven A. Merksamer Senior Partner Nielsen, Merksamer, Parrinello, Gross & Leoni, LLP Gerald L. Parsky Chairman Aurora Capital Group Kim Polese Chairman ClearStreet, Inc. Gaddi H. Vasquez Senior Vice President, Government Affairs Edison International Southern California Edison Public Policy Institute of California 500 Washington Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, CA 94111 T: 415.291.4400 F: 415.291.4401 PPIC.ORG PPIC Sacramento Center Senator Office Building 1121 L Street, Suite 801 Sacramento, CA 95814 T: 916.440.1120 F: 916.440.1121" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 09:42:59" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(8) "s_516mbs" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:42:59" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 09:42:59" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["guid"]=> string(50) "http://148.62.4.17/wp-content/uploads/S_516MBS.pdf" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_mime_type"]=> string(15) "application/pdf" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" ["status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["attachment_authors"]=> bool(false) }