PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government, May 2018
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string(72414) "PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 Californians & Their Government Mark Baldassare Dean Bonner Alyssa Dykman CONTENTS Press Release 2018 California Election State and National Issues Regional Map Methodology Questionnaire and Results 3 6 11 20 21 23 Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle The PPIC Statewide Survey provides a voice for the public and likely voters— informing policymakers, encouraging discussion, and raising awareness on critical issues of the day. © 2018 Public Policy Institute of California The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. PPIC is a public charity. It does not take or support positions on any ballot measures or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source. Research publications reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or of the staff, officers, advisory councils, or board of directors of the Public Policy Institute of California. PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY News Release MAY 2018 CONTACT Susan Gluss 415-291-4412 Abby Cook 415-291-4436 EMBARGOED: Do not publish or broadcast until 9:00 pm PDT on Wednesday, May 23, 2018 Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: www.ppic.org/press-release/ PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: Newsom on Top—Cox and Villaraigosa Vie for Second, Feinstein Holds Wide Lead over de León MAJORITIES SAY RUSSIA INFLUENCED 2016 ELECTION SAN FRANCISCO, May 23, 2018—Democrat Gavin Newsom remains the top choice among likely voters in the state’s gubernatorial primary, and Republican John Cox is in a close race with Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa to gain the second spot on November’s general election ballot. Senator Dianne Feinstein holds a double-digit lead over fellow Democrat Kevin de León. These are among the key findings of a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC). Democrat Gavin Newsom (25%) leads among likely voters, followed by Republican John Cox (19%), Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa (15%), Republican Travis Allen (11%), and Democrats John Chiang (9%) and Delaine Eastin (6%). Fifteen percent of likely voters are still undecided. Results were similar in an April PPIC poll (26% Newsom, 15% Cox, and 13% Villaraigosa). “Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom’s support has been consistent across five PPIC surveys, while John Cox’s support has sharply increased since our January survey,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO. A solid majority of likely voters (64%) are satisfied with their candidate choices in the gubernatorial race, a finding that holds across parties. However, Democrats (74%) are much more likely than independents (55%) or Republicans (60%) to be satisfied. The share of Republicans who are satisfied has increased since January (38%). Among likely voters, Democrats prefer Newsom to Villaraigosa by 23 points (42% to 19%), with 14 percent unsure. Republicans choose Cox over Allen (44% to 22%), with 14 percent unsure. Independent voters equally support Cox (18%) and Newsom (18%). Latinos form the backbone of support for Villaraigosa (39%), while whites are more likely to support Newsom (27%) or Cox (24%). With the June 5 primary less than two weeks away interest in the race continues to grow, with a majority (58%) of likely voters following election news very (19%) or somewhat (39%) closely. “Voters’ interest in the news about the gubernatorial candidates has nearly doubled since January, but 15 percent are still making up their minds about the June primary,” Baldassare said. Feinstein Holds Lead in Senate Race Senator Dianne Feinstein holds a commanding lead against fellow Democrat Kevin de León (41% to 17%) among likely voters, with 36 percent undecided. Among Democrats, a solid majority (65%) support Feinstein, while most Republicans (59%) and independents (47%) are undecided. Feinstein PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 3 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 leads among men (41% to 18%), women (42% to 17%), and whites (38% to 14%), while Latinos are divided (34% to 32%). The senator’s lead over de León increases as respondents’ age and education levels rise. Half of likely voters (50%) are satisfied with their choice of candidates in the US Senate race. A large majority of Democrats (74%) are satisfied, while more than half of Republicans (59%) are not. Democrats Enthused about Congressional Races California will be a battleground state in congressional elections this November, but just under half of the state’s likely voters (46%) say they are extremely (20%) or very enthusiastic (26%) about voting for Congress. Democratic likely voters (56%) are somewhat more likely than Republicans (42%) and independents (39%) to be extremely or very enthusiastic. If the election for the US House of Representatives were held today, a majority of likely voters (52%) say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate, while 38 percent would vote for or lean toward the Republican. Democratic candidates are preferred by a 32-point margin (61% to 29%) in Democratic-held districts, while Republican candidates are preferred by a 28-point margin (60% to 32%) in Republican-held districts. Republican candidates are also preferred in the 10 districts deemed competitive by the Cook Political Report (9 of the 10 are currently Republican-held seats). Likely voters are divided over whether they prefer candidates for Congress to work with the Trump administration (47%) or push back against it (46 %). There’s a wide partisan divide among registered voters on this question: 19 percent of Democrats say to work with the administration, compared to 87 percent of Republicans. Half of independents (49%) say candidates ought to work with Trump. As Californians prepare to cast their primary ballots, key issues for likely voters include immigration (19%), jobs and the economy (15%), and housing (9%). Majority Support for Single-Payer If No New Taxes Required With health care a key issue in the gubernatorial race, 53 percent of likely voters say they favor a singlepayer state plan. However, if this plan would require raising taxes, support declines to 41 percent. Among registered voters, a solid majority of Democrats (78%) favor a single-payer state system— 62 percent if it means raising taxes—while a solid majority of Republicans (67%) are opposed. Amid continued uncertainty over the future of the Affordable Care Act, 45 percent of likely voters have a generally favorable opinion of the 2010 Obamacare health reform law, while 43 percent have a generally unfavorable opinion—a drop in support from last September (58% favorable, 38% unfavorable). Among registered voters overall, a solid majority of Democrats (61%) have a favorable opinion of the law, while a strong majority of Republicans (66%) view it unfavorably; independents are divided (43% favorable, 42% unfavorable). Immigrants Viewed as Benefit to State The US Justice Department has sued California over its refusal to cooperate fully with federal immigration enforcement. Complicating matters, several of the state’s counties and cities have sided with the Trump administration against the so-called sanctuary laws. With these events as a backdrop, how do Californians currently view immigrants and immigration policy? A solid 67 percent of likely voters today say that immigrants benefit the state because of their hard work and job skills. Among registered voters, Democrats (86%) and independents (75%) are far more likely than Republicans (36%) to say immigrants are a benefit. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 4 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 The vast majority of likely voters (80%) say there should be a way for undocumented immigrants to stay in the US legally, if certain requirements are met. Overwhelming majorities of registered Democrats (93%) and independents (82%), and a strong majority of Republicans (66%), hold this view. “Majorities across the state’s regions continue to view immigrants as a benefit, while local tensions have been surfacing about federal and state roles in immigration enforcement,” Baldassare said. Majorities Favor Revised State Budget Governor Brown recently released the May revision of his state budget for the next fiscal year, which includes $138 billion in general fund spending—and no new taxes. Sixty-three percent of likely voters say they favor it. Among registered voters, Californians are divided along party lines, with 78 percent of Democrats, 58 percent of independents, and 36 percent of Republicans in favor. As part of the revised budget, the governor proposed nearly $4 billion in one-time general fund spending, with $2 billion for infrastructure work, $359 million for homelessness projects, and $312 million for mental health programs. When hearing a brief description of the budget plan, 78 percent of likely voters said it was a good idea. Overall, 52 percent of likely voters approve of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor. Fewer likely voters (42%) approve of the California Legislature. Split on Politics of Russia Probe, Agreement on Election Interference One year into the special counsel investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election, do Californians think the probe is justified or politically motivated? Opinions are split among likely voters: 49 percent say the investigation is justified, while 48 percent say it’s politically motivated. Partisans view this issue very differently: Among registered voters, 79 percent of Republicans and 57 percent of independents say the investigation is politically motivated, compared with only 22 percent of Democrats. While Californians are divided over the investigation itself, majorities across all regions and demographic groups think that the Russian government tried to influence the outcome of the 2016 election. A strong majority of likely voters (74%) hold this view, including half (50%) who also believe that members of the Trump campaign helped Russia. Registered Democrats (76%) are far more likely than independents (44%) or Republicans (18%) to think that the Trump campaign intentionally helped Russia interfere in the election. Among the state’s likely voters, President Trump’s approval rating (38%) remains relatively unchanged. Seventy-five percent of registered Republicans approve of Trump, compared to 36 percent of independents and 10 percent of Democrats. Just 18 percent of likely voters approve of Congress. A Distrust of Government Californians tend to distrust government, with far stronger animus toward the federal government. Just 18 percent of likely voters say you can trust the federal government in Washington to do what is right just about always (3%) or most of the time (15%). State government fares slightly better. About four in ten likely voters (38%) think that they can trust the state government to do what is right just about always (6%) or most of the time (32%). Sixty-one percent express distrust in state government—including 13 percent who volunteer that they can never trust it to do what is right. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 5 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY 2018 California Election MAY 2018 Key Findings Democrat Gavin Newsom continues to lead in the governor’s race, with John Cox and Antonio Villaraigosa vying for the second spot in the top-two primary. Fifteen percent of likely voters are undecided. Attention to news about candidates for governor continues to grow, with 58 percent of likely voters following news at least fairly closely. (page 7) Most likely voters are now satisfied with their choices of gubernatorial candidates— Democrats are more likely than Republicans to be satisfied. Eight in ten likely voters say that the candidates’ performances in debates is at least somewhat important in deciding who to vote for; Democrats are more likely than Republicans to hold this view. (page 8) In the US Senate primary race, incumbent Dianne Feinstein has the support of 41 percent of likely voters, while 17 percent support Kevin de León. Thirty-six percent of likely voters are undecided, including 59 percent of Republicans and 47 percent of independents. Half of likely voters are satisfied with their choices of candidates (40% not satisfied). Democrats are far more likely than Republicans or independents to be satisfied (74% to 27%). (page 9) Forty-six percent of likely voters are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting in congressional races this year. Fifty-two percent of likely voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their House of Representatives election, but partisans are divided. When it comes to candidates for Congress, likely voters are divided about whether it’s more important to work with (47%) or push back against (46%) the Trump administration. (page 10) Percent likely voters June 2018 gubernatorial primary Gavin Newsom 25 John Cox 19 Antonio Villaraigosa 15 Travis Allen 11 John Chiang 9 Delaine Eastin 6 Someone else 1 Don’t know 15 0 20 40 Percent likely voters June 2018 US Senate primary 60 Don’t know 36% Dianne Feinstein 41% Someone else 5% Kevin de León 17% Likely voters November 2018 House races 100 80 60 52 38 40 20 61 29 Would vote or lean Dem Would vote or lean Rep 60 61 32 32 0 All likely voters Democraticheld seats Republican- Competitive held seats House districts PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 6 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 June Gubernatorial Primary With the June primary just weeks away, interest in the race continues to grow, with six in ten Californians following news about candidates very (19%) or fairly closely (39%). This share has increased from 30 percent (7% very, 23% fairly) in January, to 48 percent (14% very, 34% fairly) in March, and 54 percent (18% very, 36% fairly) in April. Attention levels among likely voters were somewhat similar in May 2010 (21% very, 46% fairly) prior to California’s last open gubernatorial election. Attention to news is fairly similar across parties. Among racial/ethnic groups, white likely voters are more likely than Latinos to be following news at least fairly closely. (Sample sizes for Asian American and African American likely voters are too small for separate analysis.) Interest in election news increases with education. “How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2018 governor's election?” Likely voters only Very closely Somewhat closely Not too closely Not at all closely Don’t know All likely voters 19% 39 30 11 1 Dem 20% 38 33 7 1 Party Rep 21% 40 24 14 – Ind 17% 43 30 10 – Latinos 19% 32 32 15 2 Race/Ethnicity Whites Other groups 18% 26% 42 39 30 27 10 9 –– Democrat Gavin Newsom (25%) continues to be the top choice among likely voters; support for Newsom was similar in December (23%), January (23%), March (28%), and April (26%) PPIC Statewide Surveys. With only the top two candidates advancing to the November general election, the battle to finish second is extremely important. Currently, John Cox (19%) and Antonio Villaraigosa (15%) are vying for the second spot in the top-two primary followed by Republican Travis Allen (11%), and Democrats John Chiang (9%) and Delaine Eastin (6%) (Only candidates with independently verifiable campaign organizations and significant resources for statewide campaigning were included; six of the candidates met this criteria.) Fifteen percent of likely voters are undecided. In April, Cox (15%) and Villaraigosa (13%) were virtually tied for second place, followed by Allen (10%), Chiang (7%), and Eastin (6%), with 22 percent undecided. Today, Newsom leads Villaraigosa among Democrats (42% to 19%), while Cox leads Allen among Republicans (44% to 22%). Independent voters equally support Cox and Newsom. Latino likely voters prefer Villaraigosa, while whites are divided between Newsom and Cox. Newsom leads in the San Francisco Bay Area (42%), while Cox leads in the Central Valley (29%) and Orange/San Diego (30%), and Villaraigosa leads in Los Angeles (29%). Cox (20%) and Newsom (19%) are leading in the Inland Empire. “If the June primary for governor were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?”* Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups Gavin Newsom 25% 42% 7% 18% 15% 27% 32% John Cox 19 2 44 18 8 24 14 Antonio Villaraigosa 15 19 4 14 39 7 10 Travis Allen John Chiang 11 1 22 15 3 13 13 9 11 7 8 6 8 16 Delaine Eastin Someone else (specify) 69 1 7 8 4 6 11 1 1 – 1 – Don't know 15 14 14 19 20 16 *For complete text of this question, including ballot designations, see p. 24. 9 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 7 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 June Gubernatorial Primary (continued) As the election grows closer, the share of likely voters who are satisfied with their choices of candidates has also increased: 64 percent of likely voters are satisfied and 27 percent are not satisfied. In March, 55 percent were satisfied, and 54 percent were satisfied in January. Today, 74 percent of Democrats are satisfied, compared to fewer Republicans (60%) and independents (55%). The share of Republicans who are satisfied has increased since January (38% January, 42% March, 60% today), while satisfaction has not changed much among Democrats (71% January, 71% March, 74% today). Satisfaction is higher among Latinos than whites; a majority of women (67%) and men (61%) are satisfied with their choices. Across regions and demographic groups, six in ten or more are satisfied— the lone exception is Orange/San Diego (59%). “In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the primary election for governor this June?” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups Satisfied 64% 74% 60% 55% 71% 61% 67% Not satisfied 27 18 30 36 22 29 25 Don’t know 9 8 10 9 7 10 9 The final gubernatorial debate occurred days before we began the survey. When it comes to deciding who to vote for in the election, eight in ten likely voters say the candidates’ performances in public debates are very (41%) or somewhat important (41%). More than seven in ten likely voters across parties, regions, and demographic groups say the candidates’ performances are important, but this view is more prevalent among Democrats (88%) than among Republicans (74%); 82 percent of independents view debates as important. Latinos (92%) and whites (75%) call the debates important, as do 89 percent of members of other racial/ethnic groups. The importance of debate performances declines with increasing age, educational attainment, and household income. “In deciding who to vote for in the election for governor, how important to you are the candidates’ performances in public debates?” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups Very important 41% 44% 33% 42% 62% 30% 49% Somewhat important 41 44 41 40 30 45 40 Not too important 12 8 18 10 4 16 7 Not at all important 6 4 6 75 7 3 Don’t know 1 – 3 1– 1 1 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 8 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 June US Senate Primary Senator Dianne Feinstein, who is seeking her fifth full term as a US senator, continues to lead state senator and fellow Democrat Kevin de León by double digits (41% to 17%) among likely voters. (Only candidates with independently verifiable campaign organizations and significant resources for statewide campaigning were included; two of the candidates met this criteria.) Thirty-six percent of likely voters are undecided. Findings were similar in March (42% Feinstein, 16% de León) and January (46% Feinstein, 17% de León). Two in three Democrats support Feinstein, while 59 percent of Republicans and 47 percent of independents are undecided. Feinstein leads de León among men (41% to 18%) and women (42% to 17%) and among whites (38% to 14%), while Latinos are divided (34% to 32%). Feinstein also leads across regions (San Francisco Bay Area 52% to 12%, Los Angeles 45% to 21%, Orange/San Diego 37% to 21%, Central Valley 37% to 13%, Inland Empire 29% to 20%). Feinstein’s lead over de León increases with age and educational attainment. “Keeping in mind that California has the top-two primary system, if the June primary for US Senator were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?”* Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Ind Race/Ethnicity Latinos Whites Dianne Feinstein 41% 65% 22% Kevin de León 17 20 10 Someone else (specify) 5 29 Don't know 36 13 59 *For complete text of this question, including ballot designations, see p. 24. 28% 20 5 47 34% 32 2 31 38% 14 7 41 Other groups 61% 10 3 26 Half of likely voters (50%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the primary election for US senator; 40 percent are not satisfied. Satisfaction was similar in March (47% satisfied, 44% not satisfied). Democrats are nearly three times as likely as Republicans to be satisfied; a majority of independents are not satisfied. Latino likely voters are much more satisfied than whites and members of other racial/ethnic groups. Satisfaction is higher in the San Francisco Bay Area (57%), Los Angeles (55%), and the Inland Empire (52%) than in Orange/San Diego (43%) and the Central Valley (41%). Six in ten likely voters with only a high school education are satisfied, compared to fewer than half in other education groups. Women (54%) are somewhat more satisfied than men (45%). Among those who are satisfied with their choices of candidates, 59 percent support Feinstein (20% de León). Among those who are not satisfied, 57 percent are undecided. “In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the primary election for US senator this June?” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups Satisfied 50% 74% 27% 38% 70% 44% 50% Not satisfied 40 19 59 53 21 46 40 Don’t know 11 7 14 9 9 11 10 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 9 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 Congressional Elections With California set to be a battleground state in US House elections this November, almost half of likely voters (46%) say they are extremely (20%) or very enthusiastic (26%) about voting in races for Congress this year. Registered voters in our survey (15% extremely, 22% very) are somewhat less likely than voters nationwide in a May CNN poll (23% extremely, 22% very) to be enthusiastic. Among California likely voters, Democrats (56%) are somewhat more likely than Republicans (42%) and independents (39%) to be at least very enthusiastic about voting in races for Congress this year. If the 2018 election for US House of Representatives were held today, a majority of likely voters (52%) say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate, while 38 percent would vote for or lean toward the Republican candidate. Most partisans would support their own party, while independents are divided. Democratic candidates are preferred by a 32-point margin (61% to 29%) in Democratic-held districts, while Republican candidates are preferred by a 28-point margin (60% to 32%) in districts with Republican-held seats. Republican candidates are also preferred by similar margins in the 10 districts deemed competitive by the Cook Political Report (9 of the 10 are Republicanheld seats). The Democratic candidate is preferred by majorities in the San Francisco Bay Area (66% to 25%), Los Angeles (57% to 30%) and the Inland Empire (55% to 42%), while about half in the Central Valley (53% to 39%) and Orange/San Diego (50% to 41%) prefer the Republican candidate. Registered voters in our survey (56%) are more likely than voters nationwide in the CNN poll to prefer Democratic candidates (47% Democratic candidate, 44% Republican candidate). “If the 2018 election for US House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district? (If other/unsure: As of today, do you lean more toward the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?)” Likely voters only Republican/ Lean Republican Democratic/ Lean Democratic All likely voters 38% 52 Party Dem Rep 5% 86% 91 8 Ind 38% 43 Race/Ethnicity Latinos Whites Other groups 19% 49% 24% 63 44 69 Competitive House districts 61% 32 Don’t know 10 4 6 19 18 7 6 7 Californians are divided on whether candidates for US Congress should work with the Trump administration or push back against the Trump administration. There is a wide partisan divide, and half of independents prefer working with Trump. Notably, one in five Democrats say candidates should work with the Trump administration. Latinos are more likely to prefer pushing back while whites are more likely to prefer working with the administration. Majorities in the Central Valley (63%) and Orange/San Diego (55%) say work with, while a majority in the San Francisco Bay Area (54%) say push back against the Trump administration; Los Angeles (43% work with, 48% push back) and Inland Empire residents (50% work with, 45% push back) are divided. “Which of the following is more important to you in candidates for US Congress—that they work with the Trump administration or that they push back against the Trump administration?” Likely voters only Work with the Trump administration Push back against the Trump administration All likely voters 47% 46 Party Dem Rep 19% 73 87% 11 Ind 49% 38 Race/Ethnicity Latinos Whites Other groups 30% 54% 44% 61 41 43 Competitive House districts 62% 33 Both (volunteered) 3 4 16 4 2 6 – About the same 4 4 17 5 2 7 5 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 10 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY State and National Issues MAY 2018 Key Findings Forty-eight percent of Californians approve of Governor Brown’s job performance, while 44 percent approve of the state legislature. The ratings were similar a year ago. (page 12) Thirty percent of Californians approve of President Trump, while 24 percent approve of the US Congress. The president’s approval rating is higher in national polls. (page 13) Californians most often name jobs and the economy or immigration as the most important issues facing the people of California. Half expect good economic times in the state over the next 12 months. (page 14) Six in ten Californians are in favor of the governor’s revised budget plan for the 2018–19 fiscal year. Three in four say his plan for nearly $4 billion in one-time spending is a good idea. (page 15) A majority of Californians say the state government in Sacramento can be trusted only some of the time or never (56%). Seven in ten say this about the federal government (73%). (page 16) Three in four Californians view immigrants as a benefit to the state. More than eight in ten adults say that there should be a way for undocumented immigrants currently living in the US to stay in the country legally, if certain requirements are met. (page 17) Forty-five percent of Californians have a favorable opinion of the Affordable Care Act. A majority of adults (64%) favor single-payer health insurance; however, support declines (41%) if it means raising taxes. (page 18) Californians are divided over the motivation of the Russian investigation. Majorities say Russia tried to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. (page 19) Percent all adults Percent all adults Percent all adults Approval ratings of state elected officials 100 Governor Brown California Legislature 80 60 48 40 44 20 0 Approval ratings of federal elected officials 100 President Trump 80 US Congress 60 40 33 30 20 0 30 24 Belief that immigrants are a benefit to California 100 78 80 74 70 71 68 60 80 40 20 0 All adults Central Valley Inland Empire Los Orange/ San Angeles San Diego Francisco Bay Area PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 11 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 Approval Ratings of State Elected Officials As California voters are making ballot choices in the June gubernatorial primary, 48 percent of adults and 52 percent of likely voters approve of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job. Brown’s approval rating was similar in April (52% adults, 50% likely voters) and last May (52% adults, 50% likely voters). Today, Democrats (75%) are far more likely than independents (39%) and Republicans (23%) to approve. Half or more in the San Francisco Bay Area (57%), Inland Empire (51%), and Los Angeles (50%) approve, as do four in ten elsewhere (41% Central Valley, 40% Orange San Diego). African Americans (58%) and Latinos (54%) are more likely than Asian Americans (44%) and whites (43%) to approve. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California?” Approve Disapprove All adults 48% 31% Likely voters 52 41 Democrats 75 13 Party Republicans 23 71 Independents 39 43 Central Valley 41 37 Inland Empire 51 33 Region Los Angeles 50 28 Orange/San Diego 40 39 San Francisco Bay Area 57 23 Don’t know 21% 7 13 6 18 22 17 22 22 20 And as California voters consider their choices in legislative primaries, 44 percent of adults and 42 percent of likely voters approve of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job. Approval was similar in April (46% adults, 42% likely voters) and last May (46% adults, 41% likely voters). Today, Democrats (63%) are much more likely to approve than are independents (34%) and Republicans (20%). Across the state’s major regions, approval ranges from a high of 49 percent in the San Francisco Bay Area to a low of 37 percent in the Central Valley. A majority of Latinos (53%) say they approve, but fewer in other racial/ethnic groups agree (49% African Americans, 43% Asian Americans, 38% whites). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job?” Approve Disapprove Don’t know All adults 44% 38% 18% Likely voters 42 48 10 Democrats 63 21 16 Party Republicans 20 72 7 Independents 34 52 14 Central Valley 37 43 20 Inland Empire 42 37 21 Region Los Angeles 46 36 18 Orange/San Diego 43 41 16 San Francisco Bay Area 49 33 18 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 12 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 Approval Ratings of Federal Elected Officials President Trump’s approval rating (30% adults, 38% likely voters) is relatively unchanged from March (30% adults, 37% likely voters) and is slightly higher than last May (27% adults, 33% likely voters). Today, 75 percent of Republicans approve of President Trump, compared to 36 percent of independents and 10 percent of Democrats. Across the state’s regions, approval ranges from a high of four in ten in the Central Valley (41%) to one in four in Los Angeles (24%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (23%). Across racial/ethnic groups, whites (42%) are more likely to approve than Asian Americans (28%), Latinos (17%), and African Americans (5%). A recent Gallup weekly tracking poll showed Trump with a higher approval rating among adults nationwide (42% approve, 54% disapprove). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president?” Approve Disapprove Don’t know All adults 30% 63% 7% Likely voters 38 58 4 Democrats 10 87 3 Party Republicans 75 21 4 Independents 36 56 8 Central Valley 41 53 5 Inland Empire 29 62 9 Region Los Angeles 24 71 5 Orange/San Diego 39 55 6 San Francisco Bay Area 23 68 9 Approval levels for the US Congress (24% adults, 18% likely voters) are similar to those in March (29% adults, 22% likely voters) and last May (26% adults, 19% likely voters). Today, fewer than three in ten across parties (29% Republicans, 18% Democrats, 17% independents) approve. Fewer than three in ten adults approve across the state’s regions (29% Orange/San Diego, 28% Central Valley, 28% Inland Empire, 24% San Francisco Bay Area, 19% Los Angeles). Approval of Congress declines as income and education levels rise, and it is similar among men and women. A May Gallup poll found that adults nationwide (17% approve, 79% disapprove) are more disapproving than Californians. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the US Congress is handling its job?” All adults Likely voters Party Region Democrats Republicans Independents Central Valley Inland Empire Los Angeles Orange/San Diego San Francisco Bay Area Approve 24% 18 18 29 17 28 28 19 29 24 Disapprove 66% 78 77 67 74 60 62 70 66 67 Don’t know 10% 5 5 5 9 12 9 11 5 9 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 13 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 Most Important Issues Californians are most likely to name either jobs and the economy (18% adults, 15% likely voters) or immigration (15% adults, 19% likely voters) as the most important issue facing people in California today. Last May, jobs and the economy (22% adults, 19% likely voters) was mentioned most often as the top issue in California. Today, similar proportions of residents across the state’s regions mention jobs and economy as the top issue; however, in the San Francisco Bay Area residents are more likely to mention housing (21%). Democrats are more likely than Republicans to mention jobs and the economy (20% to 11%); Republicans are more likely than Democrats to mention immigration (28% to 11%). Latinos (18%) and whites (16%) name immigration as the most important issue more often than do Asian Americans (7%) and African Americans (5%). “First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today?” Top issues Jobs, economy All adults 18% Central Valley 18% Inland Empire 22% Region Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego 18% 17% San Francisco Bay Area 20% Immigration, illegal immigration Housing costs, housing availability Crime, gangs, drugs Government in general, problems with elected official, political parties Homelessness 15 9 6 5 5 17 4 7 5 3 15 7 7 4 4 15 7 4 5 8 17 9 7 6 4 11 21 4 5 4 Water, drought 56 6 5 8 2 Likely voters 15% 19 9 4 7 5 5 When asked about future economic conditions in California, about half of adults (51%) and likely voters (50%) say the state will have good times financially during the next 12 months. Californians had similar perceptions in January (56% adults, 56% likely voters) and last September (51% adults, 51% likely voters). Majorities in Orange/San Diego (58%), the San Francisco Bay Area (54%), and the Inland Empire (53%) are expecting good times; 46 percent in Los Angeles and 45 percent in the Central Valley say the same. Democrats (59%) are more optimistic than independents (44%) and Republicans (41%). Men (59%) are more optimistic than women (43%). Asian Americans (58%) expect good times financially more often than whites (51%), Latinos (49%), and African Americans (42%) do. “Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?” Good times All adults 51% Central Valley 45% Inland Empire 53% Region Los Angeles 46% Orange/ San Diego 58% San Francisco Bay Area 54% Bad times 39 47 40 46 30 34 Don’t know 10 8 7 8 12 12 Likely voters 50% 40 10 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 14 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 State Budget Governor Brown’s state budget proposal in January included $132 billion in General Fund spending. It increased spending on K–14 and higher education, health and human services, and prisons and corrections, while placing $5 billion in the state’s reserves—including $3.5 billion in the rainy day fund. It did not propose new taxes. After being read a brief description of the governor’s budget proposal in our January PPIC Statewide Survey, two in three Californians said they were in favor of it (67% adults, 66% likely voters), including majorities across the state’s regions and demographic groups. More recently, Governor Brown released the May revision of his plan—the last during his tenure. This version raises General Fund spending to $138 billion, and continues to call for increased spending on K–14 and higher education, health and human services, and prisons and corrections. It directs $4.4 billion to the state’s reserves and includes nearly $4 billion in one-time spending. The revised plan does not propose any new taxes. After being read a brief description of the revised budget plan, six in ten Californians (63% adults, 60% likely voters) say they favor it. Support is divided along party lines (78% Democrats, 58% independents, 36% Republicans), but majorities are in favor across regional, age, education, income, and racial/ethnic groups. “Governor Brown recently released a revised budget plan for the next fiscal year that includes about $138 billion in general fund spending. The proposed budget will increase spending on K–14 and higher education, health and human services, and prisons and corrections. The proposed budget plan puts $4.4 billion into the state’s reserves to bring the rainy day fund to 100 percent of its constitutional target. It includes nearly $4 billion in one-time spending and includes no new taxes. In general, do you favor or oppose the governor’s budget plan?” All adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind voters Favor 63% 78% 36% 58% 60% Oppose 25 13 52 32 31 Don’t know/have not heard anything about the budget 12 9 12 10 9 Where would the nearly $4 billion in one-time spending go? It is focused on three budget areas: $2 billion for infrastructure projects, $359 million to address homelessness, and $312 million for mental health programs. After hearing a brief description of the amount and purpose of this one-time spending plan, most Californians (78% adults, 71% likely voters) say this proposal is a good idea. Majorities of voters across parties say it is a good idea, but Republicans (53%) are less supportive than others. Strong majorities of Californians across the state’s regional, age, education, income, and racial/ethnic groups support this plan. “The nearly $4 billion in one-time general fund spending is focused in three areas with $2 billion going to infrastructure projects, $359 million to address homelessness, and $312 for mental health programs. In general, do you think this is a good idea or a bad idea?” All adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind voters Good idea 78% 89% 53% 73% 71% Bad idea 17 8 37 20 23 Don’t know 5 3 10 7 6 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 15 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 Trust in State and Federal Government Nearly half of Californians (47%) and likely voters (48%) think that they can trust the state government to do what is right only some of the time, while 9 percent of Californians and 13 percent of likely voters volunteer that they can never trust the state government to do what is right. In periodic surveys since August 2002, a majority of adults and likely voters have expressed distrust in state government; however, distrust is currently at its lowest level since 2002. Today, partisans are divided: Republicans (82%) and independents (68%) are much more likely than Democrats (40%) to trust the state government only some or none of the time. Among racial/ethnic groups, whites (62%) and African Americans (61%) are the most likely to express distrust, followed by Latinos (50%) and Asians (48%). Majorities across regions express distrust (62% Orange/San Diego, 59% Inland Empire, 58% Los Angeles, 55% Central Valley)— with the exception of the San Francisco Bay Area (46%). “How much of the time do you think you can trust the state government in Sacramento to do what is right?” All adults Dem Party Rep Ind Just about always 9% 7% 4% 3% Most of the time 32 51 13 28 Only some of the time 47 37 62 55 None of the time (volunteered) 9 3 20 13 Don’t know 32 1 1 Likely voters 6% 32 48 13 1 Californians continue to be distrustful of the federal government. A solid majority (62%) think the federal government can be trusted to do what is right only some of the time, while 11 percent of adults volunteer that it can never be trusted. Only 24 percent say the federal government can be trusted just about always (6%) or most of the time (18%). Likely voters are slightly more distrustful (68% only some of the time, 13% none of the time). Similar proportions of Californians held this view in our March 2017 survey (62% only some of the time, 7% none of the time). Today, Democrats (81%) and independents (80%) are somewhat more likely than Republicans (73%) to express distrust. Majorities of Californians across all regions and demographic groups express distrust toward the federal government. “How much of the time do you think you can trust the federal government in Washington today to do what is right?” All adults Dem Party Rep Ind Just about always 6% 2% 5% 3% Most of the time 18 15 20 16 Only some of the time 62 68 66 66 None of the time (volunteered) 11 13 7 14 Don’t know 32 2 1 Likely voters 3% 15 68 13 1 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 16 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 Immigration Policy In March, the US Justice Department announced that it was suing California over three immigration-related laws passed by the state legislature in 2017. Since then, 6 counties and at least 13 cities have voiced opposition to the state sanctuary laws, either by passing resolutions or by joining the Justice Department’s lawsuit against California. Following these events, how do residents view immigrants and immigration policy? Perception of immigrants in California 100 Immigrants are a benefit Immigrants are a burden 80 74 60 40 Percent adults Today, most adults (74%) and likely voters (67%) say that immigrants are a benefit to the state because of 20 20 their hard work and job skills. Californians held similar views last September (76%). Democrats (86%) and independents (75%) today are far more likely than 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Republicans (36%) to say immigrants are a benefit. At least six in ten across all regions and demographic groups hold this view. Across racial/ethnic groups, Latinos (86%), African Americans (81%), and Asians (80%) are the most likely to say immigrants are a benefit; fewer whites (64%) express this view. “Please indicate which statement comes closest to your own view —even if neither is exactly right. Immigrants today are a benefit to California because of their hard work and job skills or Immigrants today are a burden to California because they use public services.” Immigrants are a benefit Immigrants are a burden Don't know All adults 74% 20 6 Dem 86% 10 4 Party Rep 36% 55 9 Ind 75% 19 6 Race/Ethnicity African Asian Americans Americans Latinos 81% 80% 86% 13 14 9 6 65 Whites 64% 30 6 Most California adults (85%) and likely voters (80%) say there should be a way for undocumented immigrants to stay in the US legally, if certain requirement are met. Similar shares of Californians held these views in December (86% allowed to stay legally, 12% not allowed to stay). Overwhelming majorities of Democrats (93%) and independents (82%) say undocumented immigrants should be allowed to stay, as do a strong majority of Republicans (66%). Across regions, at least eight in ten adults say undocumented immigrants should be allowed to stay legally, and at least three-quarters of adults across age, education, income, and racial/ethnic groups say the same. Latinos (95%) are the most likely to say undocumented immigrants should be allowed to stay legally, followed by African Americans (82%), Asian Americans (also 82%), and whites (79%). “Which comes closer to your view about how to handle undocumented immigrants who are living in the US? There should be a way for them to stay in the country legally, if certain requirements are met, or they should not be allowed to stay in this country legally?” A way for them to stay legally Should not be allowed to stay Don't know All adults 85% 13 2 Dem 93% 6 1 Party Rep 66% 31 3 Ind 82% 15 3 Race/Ethnicity African Asian Americans Americans Latinos 82% 82% 95% 15 14 5 3 51 Whites 79% 19 2 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 17 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 Health Care Policy Support for the Affordable Care Act Amid continued uncertainty over the future of the federal Affordable Care Act (ACA), 45 percent of Californians have a generally favorable opinion of the 100 80 Generally favorable Generally unfavorable Percent adults health reform law, while 39 percent have a generally unfavorable opinion. Today’s finding marks a 60 45 decrease in the law’s favorability rating from last September (58% favorable, 37% unfavorable), but it is similar to the rating a year ago (48% favorable, 41% 40 20 39 unfavorable). Among likely voters today, 45 percent view the law favorably. A solid majority of Democrats 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (61%) have a favorable opinion of the ACA, while a strong majority of Republicans (66%) view it unfavorably. Independents are divided. Californians without health insurance (48%) are somewhat more likely than those with health insurance (38%) to have an unfavorable opinion of the law. Similar shares of adults nationwide have a favorable opinion of the law (49% favorable, 43% unfavorable), according to an April Kaiser Family Foundation survey. “As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it?” All adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind voters Favorable 45% 61% 22% 43% 45% Unfavorable 39 27 66 42 45 Don’t know 16 12 12 14 10 A single-payer state health insurance program is now under discussion. Senate Bill 562, which would establish such a program, passed in the senate last year and is currently held in the state assembly. How do Californians feel about this idea today? A majority of adults (64%) and likely voters (53%) favor a single-payer state plan. However, if this plan requires raising taxes, support declines (41% adults still favor, 41% likely voters still favor). Similar shares of adults and likely voters held this view last May. An overwhelming majority of Democrats (78%) favor a single-payer state system—including 62 percent even if it means raising taxes—while a strong majority of Republicans (67%) are opposed. A majority of independents (55%) are in favor, while 36 percent are opposed. Majorities across demographic groups favor a single-payer system, but if raising taxes is required, support falls below 50 percent for all groups—with the exception of college graduates (51%). “Do you favor or oppose having guaranteed health insurance coverage in which all Californians would get their insurance through a single state government health plan? (If favor: Do you favor it even if it means raising taxes?)” Favor Favor, even if it means raising taxes Favor, not if it means raising taxes Oppose All adults 64% 41 23 29 Dem 78% 62 16 16 Party Rep 30% 17 13 67 Ind 55% 39 16 36 Likely voters 53% 41 12 41 Don’t know 77 3 96 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 18 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 US Election and Russia One year into the special counsel investigation into Russian involvement in the 2016 election, what do Californians think? Is the investigation is justified or politically motivated? Residents are divided: 49 percent of Californians say the investigation is politically motivated, while 41 percent say it is justified. Responses are similar among likely voters. These responses are similar to those of adults nationwide in a May CBS News poll (53% politically motivated, 44% justified). Partisans view this issue very differently: 79 percent of Republicans and 57 percent of independents say the investigation is politically motivated, compared to only 22 percent of Democrats. Residents in Orange/San Diego (56%), the Inland Empire (54%), and the Central Valley (53%) are more likely to say that the investigation is politically motivated than are those in Los Angeles (48%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (38%). African Americans (68%) are the most likely to say that the investigation is justified (44% whites, 36% Asian Americans, 37% Latinos). “As you may know, there is an investigation into dealings between Trump associates and Russia. Do you think the investigation is justified, or is the investigation politically motivated?” All adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind voters Justified 41% 72% 17% 36% 49% Politically motivated 49 22 79 57 48 Don’t know 10 6 5 7 4 Despite these divisions, a strong majority (67% adults, 74% likely voters) think the Russian government tried to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. Majorities across parties, regions, and demographic groups think the Russian government tried to influence the election. The shares holding this view are somewhat higher today than when we asked this question last May (58% adults, 61% likely voters). Today, these shares include half of adults and likely voters who think members of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign intentionally helped Russian efforts. Last May, a similar proportion of California adults and likely voters held this view (47% each). Today, Democrats (76%) are far more likely than independents (44%) and Republicans (18%) to think the Trump campaign intentionally helped with Russian interference. Among those who say that the Trump campaign intentionally helped, 64 percent say the investigation into dealings between Trump associates and Russia is justified. Among those who say the investigation is justified, 76 percent say the Trump campaign intentionally helped with Russian interference. “Given what you’ve heard or read, do you think the Russian government tried to influence the outcome of the 2016 US presidential election, or not? (If yes: Do you think some members of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign intentionally helped Russian efforts to influence the election, or not?)” All adults Dem Party Rep Ind Likely voters Yes 67% 84% 54% 69% 74% Yes, and Trump campaign intentionally helped 50 76 18 44 Yes, and Trump campaign did not intentionally help 12 5 31 17 Yes, don’t know if Trump campaign intentionally helped 5 3 5 8 No 24 10 40 23 50 18 6 22 Don’t know 10 5 6 8 4 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 19 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Regional Map MAY 2018 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 20 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Methodology MAY 2018 The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance from associate survey director Dean Bonner and survey research associate Alyssa Dykman, co-project managers for this survey. Research support was provided by Lunna Lopes and Renatta DeFever. The Californians and Their Government series is supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle. The PPIC Statewide Survey invites input, comments, and suggestions from policy and public opinion experts and from its own advisory committee, but survey methods, questions, and content are determined solely by PPIC’s survey team. Findings in this report are based on a survey of 1,702 California adult residents, including 1,191 interviewed on cell phones and 511 interviewed on landline telephones. Interviews took an average of 17 minutes to complete. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights from May 11–20, 2018. Cell phone interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of cell phone numbers. All cell phone numbers with California area codes were eligible for selection. Once a cell phone user was reached, it was verified that this person was age 18 or older, a resident of California, and in a safe place to continue the survey (e.g., not driving). Cell phone respondents were offered a small reimbursement to help defray the cost of the call. Cell phone interviews were conducted with adults who have cell phone service only and with those who have both cell phone and landline service in the household. Landline interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible for selection. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using a “youngest male/female” method to avoid biases in age and gender. For both cell phones and landlines, telephone numbers were called as many as eight times. When no contact with an individual was made, calls to a number were limited to six. Also, to increase our ability to interview Asian American adults, we made up to three additional calls to phone numbers estimated by Survey Sampling International as likely to be associated with Asian American individuals. Live landline and cell phone interviews were conducted by Abt Associates in English and Spanish, according to respondents’ preferences. Accent on Languages, Inc., translated new survey questions into Spanish, with assistance from Renatta DeFever. Abt Associates uses the US Census Bureau’s 2012–2016 American Community Survey’s (ACS) Public Use Microdata Series for California (with regional coding information from the University of Minnesota’s Integrated Public Use Microdata Series for California) to compare certain demographic characteristics of the survey sample—region, age, gender, race/ethnicity, and education—with the characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the ACS figures. To estimate landline and cell phone service in California, Abt Associates used 2016 state-level estimates released by the National Center for Health Statistics—which used data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the ACS. The estimates for California were then compared against landline and cell phone service reported in this survey. We also used voter registration data from the California Secretary of State to compare the party registration of registered voters in our sample to party registration statewide. The landline and cell phone samples were then integrated using a frame integration weight, while sample balancing adjusted for differences across regional, age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, telephone service, and party registration groups. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 21 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 The sampling error, taking design effects from weighting into consideration, is ±3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total unweighted sample of 1,702 adults. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 3.1 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for unweighted subgroups is larger: for the 1,336 registered voters, the sampling error is ±3.4 percent; for the 901 likely voters, it is ±4.1 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. We present results for five geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, “Inland Empire” refers to Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, and “Orange/San Diego” refers to Orange and San Diego Counties. Residents of other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes for these less populous areas are not large enough to report separately. We also present results for congressional districts currently held by Democrats or Republicans, based on residential zip code and party of the local US House member. We analyze the results of those who live in competitive house districts as determined by the Cook Political Report’s 2018 House Race Ratings updated May 10, 2018. We present results for non-Hispanic whites, who account for 42 percent of the state’s adult population, and also for Latinos, who account for about a third of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest-growing voter groups. We also present results for non-Hispanic Asian Americans, who make up about 15 percent of the state’s adult population, and non-Hispanic African Americans, who comprise about 6 percent. Results for other racial/ethnic groups—such as Native Americans—are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes are not large enough for separate analysis. Results for African American and Asian American likely voters are combined with those of other racial/ethnic groups because sample sizes for African American and Asian American likely voters are too small for separate analysis. We compare the opinions of those who report they are registered Democrats, registered Republicans, and decline-to-state or independent voters; the results for those who say they are registered to vote in other parties are not large enough for separate analysis. We also analyze the responses of likely voters—so designated per their responses to survey questions about voter registration, previous election participation, intentions to vote this year, reportedly casting a mail ballot for the upcoming primary, attention to election news, and current interest in politics. The percentages presented in the report tables and in the questionnaire may not add to 100 due to rounding. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey results to those in our earlier surveys and to those in national surveys by CBS News, CNN, Gallup, and Kaiser Family Foundation. Additional details about our methodology can be found at www.ppic.org/wpcontent/uploads/SurveyMethodology.pdf and are available upon request through surveys@ppic.org. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 22 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Questionnaire and Results MAY 2018 CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT May 11–20, 2018 1,702 California Adult Residents: English, Spanish MARGIN OF ERROR ±3.1% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100 DUE TO ROUNDING First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today? [code, don’t read] 18% 15 9 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 9 5 jobs, economy immigration, illegal immigration housing costs, availability crime, gangs, drugs government in general, problems with elected officials, parties homelessness water, drought environment, pollution, global warming state budget, deficit, taxes education, schools, teachers gas prices, oil prices infrastructure guns, gun control, school safety health care, health insurance poverty, the poor other (specify) don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California? 48% 31 21 approve disapprove don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job? 44% 38 18 approve disapprove don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 51% 39 10 good times bad times don’t know Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote in California? 68% yes [ask q5a] 32 no [skip to q6b] 5a. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or are you registered as a decline-to-state or independent voter? 44% 26 5 25 Democrat [ask q6] Republican [skip to q6a] another party (specify) [skip to q7] independent [skip to q6b] Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 55% 41 4 strong not very strong don’t know [skip to q7] 6a. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 59% 36 5 strong not very strong don’t know [skip to q7] Californians and Their Government 23 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY 6b. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party? 21% 45 24 10 Republican Party Democratic Party neither (volunteered) don’t know [likely voters only] As you may know, California now has a top-two primary system for statewide races in which voters can cast ballots for any candidate, regardless of party, and the two candidates receiving the most votes— regardless of party—will advance to the general election. If the June primary for governor were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? [rotate names and then ask “or someone else?”] 25% 19 15 11 9 6 1 15 Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, Lieutenant Governor/Businessman John Cox, a Republican, Businessman/Taxpayer Advocate Antonio Villaraigosa, a Democrat, Public Policy Advisor Travis Allen, a Republican, California Assemblyman/Businessman John Chiang, a Democrat, California State Treasurer Delaine Eastin, a Democrat, Educator/Youth Advocate someone else (specify) don’t know [likely voters only] How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2018 governor’s election—very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 19% 39 30 11 1 very closely fairly closely not too closely not at all closely don’t know MAY 2018 [likely voters only] In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the primary election for governor this June? 64% 27 9 satisfied not satisfied don’t know [likely voters only] In deciding who to vote for in the election for governor, how important to you are the candidates’ performances in public debates—very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 41% 41 12 6 1 very important somewhat important not too important not at all important don’t know [likely voters only] Keeping in mind that California has the top-two primary system, if the June primary for US Senator were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? [rotate names and then ask “or someone else?”] 41% 17 5 36 Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat, US Senator Kevin de León, a Democrat, California Senator someone else (specify) don’t know [likely voters only] In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the primary election for US Senator this June? 50% 40 11 satisfied not satisfied don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 24 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Changing topics, [likely voters only] If the 2018 election for US House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for [rotate] (1) the Republican candidate [or] (2) the Democratic candidate] in your district? [If other/don’t know: As of today, do you lean more toward [read in same order as above] (1) the Republican candidate [or] (2) the Democratic candidate?] 38% 52 10 Rep/lean Rep Dem/lean Dem don’t know [likely voters only] Which of the following is more important to you in candidates for US Congress—[rotate] (1) that they work with the Trump Administration [or] (2) that they push back against the Trump Administration? 47% 46 3 4 work with the Trump Administration push back against the Trump Administration both (volunteered) don’t know [likely voters only] How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for Congress this year—extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic? 20% 26 32 14 6 1 extremely enthusiastic very enthusiastic somewhat enthusiastic not too enthusiastic not at all enthusiastic don’t know [question 16 not asked] PPIC.ORG/SURVEY MAY 2018 Next, Governor Brown recently released a revised budget plan for the next fiscal year that includes about $138 billion in general fund spending. The proposed budget will increase spending on K-14 and higher education, health and human services, and prisons and corrections. The proposed budget plan puts $4.4 billion into the state’s reserves to bring the rainy day fund to 100 percent of its constitutional target. It includes nearly $4 billion in one-time spending and includes no new taxes. In general, do you favor or oppose the governor’s budget plan? 63% 25 4 8 favor oppose haven’t heard anything about the budget (volunteered) don’t know 17a. The nearly $4 billion in one-time general fund spending is focused in three areas with $2 billion going to infrastructure projects, $359 million to address homelessness, and $312 million for mental health programs. In general, do you think this is a good idea or a bad idea? 78% 17 5 good idea bad idea don’t know [questions 18 and 19 not asked] Next, Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president? 30% 63 7 approve disapprove don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the US Congress is handling its job? 24% 66 10 approve disapprove don’t know [question 22 not asked] Californians and Their Government 25 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY On another topic, [rotate questions 23 and 24] How much of the time do you think you can trust the state government in Sacramento to do what is right—just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time? 9% 32 47 9 3 just about always most of the time only some of the time none of the time (volunteered) don’t know How much of the time do you think you can trust the federal government in Washington today to do what is right—just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time? 6% 18 62 11 3 just about always most of the time only some of the time none of the time (volunteered) don’t know Changing topics, Please indicate which statement comes closest to your own view—even if neither is exactly right. [rotate] (1) Immigrants today are a benefit to California because of their hard work and job skills [or] (2) Immigrants today are a burden to California because they use public services. 74% 20 6 immigrants are a benefit to California immigrants are a burden to California don’t know Which comes closer to your view about how to handle undocumented immigrants who are living in the US [rotate] (1) There should be a way for them to stay in the country legally, if certain requirements are met [or] (2) They should not be allowed to stay in this country legally? 85% 13 2 allowed to stay legally not allowed to stay legally don’t know [question 27 not asked] MAY 2018 Next, As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a [rotate] (1) [generally favorable] [or] (2) [generally unfavorable] opinion of it? [Interviewer note: If respondent asks if the health reform law refers to the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare, please answer “yes”] 45% 39 16 generally favorable generally unfavorable don’t know Do you favor or oppose having guaranteed health insurance coverage in which all Californians would get their insurance through a single state government health plan? (If favor, ask: “Do you favor it even if it means raising taxes?”) 64% 41 23 29 7 favor favor, even if it means raising taxes favor, not if it means raising taxes oppose don’t know [question 30 not asked] Next, As you may know, there is an investigation into dealings between Trump associates and Russia. Do you think the investigation is justified, or is the investigation politically motivated? 41% 49 10 justified politically motivated don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 26 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Given what you’ve heard or read, do you think the Russian government tried to influence the outcome of the 2016 US presidential election, or not? (If yes, ask: “Do you think some members of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign intentionally helped Russian efforts to influence the election, or not?”) 67% yes 50 yes, and Trump campaign intentionally helped 12 yes, but Trump campaign did not help 5 yes, don’t know if Trump campaign helped 24 no 10 don’t know Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 13% 20 30 19 13 4 very liberal somewhat liberal middle-of-the-road somewhat conservative very conservative don’t know MAY 2018 Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics—a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none?` 22% 38 29 10 1 great deal fair amount only a little none don’t know [d1-d18 demographic questions] PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 27 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect Angela Glover Blackwell President and CEO PolicyLink Mollyann Brodie Senior Vice President Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Bill Lane Center for the American West Stanford University Jon Cohen Vice President of Survey Research SurveyMonkey Joshua J. Dyck Co-Director Center for Public Opinion University of Massachusetts, Lowell Lisa García Bedolla Director Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley Russell Hancock President and CEO Joint Venture Silicon Valley Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Professor Sol Price School of Public Policy University of Southern California Robert Lapsley President California Business Roundtable Carol S. Larson President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Sonja Petek Fiscal and Policy Analyst California Legislative Analyst’s Office Lisa Pitney Vice President of Government Relations The Walt Disney Company Mindy Romero Founder and Director California Civic Engagement Project at the UC Davis Center for Regional Change Robert K. Ross, MD President and CEO The California Endowment Most Reverend Jaime Soto Bishop of Sacramento Roman Catholic Diocese of Sacramento Carol Whiteside Principal California Strategies The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PPIC BOARD OF DIRECTORS Mas Masumoto, Chair Author and Farmer Mark Baldassare President and CEO Public Policy Institute of California Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect María Blanco Executive Director University of California Immigrant Legal Services Center Louise Henry Bryson Chair Emerita, Board of Trustees J. Paul Getty Trust A. Marisa Chun Partner McDermott Will & Emery LLP Chet Hewitt President and CEO Sierra Health Foundation Phil Isenberg Former Chair Delta Stewardship Council Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Steven A. Merksamer Senior Partner Nielsen, Merksamer, Parrinello, Gross & Leoni, LLP Leon E. Panetta Chairman The Panetta Institute for Public Policy Gerald L. Parsky Chairman Aurora Capital Group Kim Polese Chairman ClearStreet, Inc. Gaddi H. Vasquez Senior Vice President, Government Affairs Edison International Southern California Edison Public Policy Institute of California 500 Washington Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, CA 94111 T: 415.291.4400 F: 415.291.4401 PPIC.ORG PPIC Sacramento Center Senator Office Building 1121 L Street, Suite 801 Sacramento, CA 95814 T: 916.440.1120 F: 916.440.1121"
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string(72414) "PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 Californians & Their Government Mark Baldassare Dean Bonner Alyssa Dykman CONTENTS Press Release 2018 California Election State and National Issues Regional Map Methodology Questionnaire and Results 3 6 11 20 21 23 Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle The PPIC Statewide Survey provides a voice for the public and likely voters— informing policymakers, encouraging discussion, and raising awareness on critical issues of the day. © 2018 Public Policy Institute of California The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. PPIC is a public charity. It does not take or support positions on any ballot measures or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source. Research publications reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or of the staff, officers, advisory councils, or board of directors of the Public Policy Institute of California. PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY News Release MAY 2018 CONTACT Susan Gluss 415-291-4412 Abby Cook 415-291-4436 EMBARGOED: Do not publish or broadcast until 9:00 pm PDT on Wednesday, May 23, 2018 Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: www.ppic.org/press-release/ PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: Newsom on Top—Cox and Villaraigosa Vie for Second, Feinstein Holds Wide Lead over de León MAJORITIES SAY RUSSIA INFLUENCED 2016 ELECTION SAN FRANCISCO, May 23, 2018—Democrat Gavin Newsom remains the top choice among likely voters in the state’s gubernatorial primary, and Republican John Cox is in a close race with Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa to gain the second spot on November’s general election ballot. Senator Dianne Feinstein holds a double-digit lead over fellow Democrat Kevin de León. These are among the key findings of a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC). Democrat Gavin Newsom (25%) leads among likely voters, followed by Republican John Cox (19%), Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa (15%), Republican Travis Allen (11%), and Democrats John Chiang (9%) and Delaine Eastin (6%). Fifteen percent of likely voters are still undecided. Results were similar in an April PPIC poll (26% Newsom, 15% Cox, and 13% Villaraigosa). “Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom’s support has been consistent across five PPIC surveys, while John Cox’s support has sharply increased since our January survey,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO. A solid majority of likely voters (64%) are satisfied with their candidate choices in the gubernatorial race, a finding that holds across parties. However, Democrats (74%) are much more likely than independents (55%) or Republicans (60%) to be satisfied. The share of Republicans who are satisfied has increased since January (38%). Among likely voters, Democrats prefer Newsom to Villaraigosa by 23 points (42% to 19%), with 14 percent unsure. Republicans choose Cox over Allen (44% to 22%), with 14 percent unsure. Independent voters equally support Cox (18%) and Newsom (18%). Latinos form the backbone of support for Villaraigosa (39%), while whites are more likely to support Newsom (27%) or Cox (24%). With the June 5 primary less than two weeks away interest in the race continues to grow, with a majority (58%) of likely voters following election news very (19%) or somewhat (39%) closely. “Voters’ interest in the news about the gubernatorial candidates has nearly doubled since January, but 15 percent are still making up their minds about the June primary,” Baldassare said. Feinstein Holds Lead in Senate Race Senator Dianne Feinstein holds a commanding lead against fellow Democrat Kevin de León (41% to 17%) among likely voters, with 36 percent undecided. Among Democrats, a solid majority (65%) support Feinstein, while most Republicans (59%) and independents (47%) are undecided. Feinstein PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 3 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 leads among men (41% to 18%), women (42% to 17%), and whites (38% to 14%), while Latinos are divided (34% to 32%). The senator’s lead over de León increases as respondents’ age and education levels rise. Half of likely voters (50%) are satisfied with their choice of candidates in the US Senate race. A large majority of Democrats (74%) are satisfied, while more than half of Republicans (59%) are not. Democrats Enthused about Congressional Races California will be a battleground state in congressional elections this November, but just under half of the state’s likely voters (46%) say they are extremely (20%) or very enthusiastic (26%) about voting for Congress. Democratic likely voters (56%) are somewhat more likely than Republicans (42%) and independents (39%) to be extremely or very enthusiastic. If the election for the US House of Representatives were held today, a majority of likely voters (52%) say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate, while 38 percent would vote for or lean toward the Republican. Democratic candidates are preferred by a 32-point margin (61% to 29%) in Democratic-held districts, while Republican candidates are preferred by a 28-point margin (60% to 32%) in Republican-held districts. Republican candidates are also preferred in the 10 districts deemed competitive by the Cook Political Report (9 of the 10 are currently Republican-held seats). Likely voters are divided over whether they prefer candidates for Congress to work with the Trump administration (47%) or push back against it (46 %). There’s a wide partisan divide among registered voters on this question: 19 percent of Democrats say to work with the administration, compared to 87 percent of Republicans. Half of independents (49%) say candidates ought to work with Trump. As Californians prepare to cast their primary ballots, key issues for likely voters include immigration (19%), jobs and the economy (15%), and housing (9%). Majority Support for Single-Payer If No New Taxes Required With health care a key issue in the gubernatorial race, 53 percent of likely voters say they favor a singlepayer state plan. However, if this plan would require raising taxes, support declines to 41 percent. Among registered voters, a solid majority of Democrats (78%) favor a single-payer state system— 62 percent if it means raising taxes—while a solid majority of Republicans (67%) are opposed. Amid continued uncertainty over the future of the Affordable Care Act, 45 percent of likely voters have a generally favorable opinion of the 2010 Obamacare health reform law, while 43 percent have a generally unfavorable opinion—a drop in support from last September (58% favorable, 38% unfavorable). Among registered voters overall, a solid majority of Democrats (61%) have a favorable opinion of the law, while a strong majority of Republicans (66%) view it unfavorably; independents are divided (43% favorable, 42% unfavorable). Immigrants Viewed as Benefit to State The US Justice Department has sued California over its refusal to cooperate fully with federal immigration enforcement. Complicating matters, several of the state’s counties and cities have sided with the Trump administration against the so-called sanctuary laws. With these events as a backdrop, how do Californians currently view immigrants and immigration policy? A solid 67 percent of likely voters today say that immigrants benefit the state because of their hard work and job skills. Among registered voters, Democrats (86%) and independents (75%) are far more likely than Republicans (36%) to say immigrants are a benefit. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 4 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 The vast majority of likely voters (80%) say there should be a way for undocumented immigrants to stay in the US legally, if certain requirements are met. Overwhelming majorities of registered Democrats (93%) and independents (82%), and a strong majority of Republicans (66%), hold this view. “Majorities across the state’s regions continue to view immigrants as a benefit, while local tensions have been surfacing about federal and state roles in immigration enforcement,” Baldassare said. Majorities Favor Revised State Budget Governor Brown recently released the May revision of his state budget for the next fiscal year, which includes $138 billion in general fund spending—and no new taxes. Sixty-three percent of likely voters say they favor it. Among registered voters, Californians are divided along party lines, with 78 percent of Democrats, 58 percent of independents, and 36 percent of Republicans in favor. As part of the revised budget, the governor proposed nearly $4 billion in one-time general fund spending, with $2 billion for infrastructure work, $359 million for homelessness projects, and $312 million for mental health programs. When hearing a brief description of the budget plan, 78 percent of likely voters said it was a good idea. Overall, 52 percent of likely voters approve of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor. Fewer likely voters (42%) approve of the California Legislature. Split on Politics of Russia Probe, Agreement on Election Interference One year into the special counsel investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election, do Californians think the probe is justified or politically motivated? Opinions are split among likely voters: 49 percent say the investigation is justified, while 48 percent say it’s politically motivated. Partisans view this issue very differently: Among registered voters, 79 percent of Republicans and 57 percent of independents say the investigation is politically motivated, compared with only 22 percent of Democrats. While Californians are divided over the investigation itself, majorities across all regions and demographic groups think that the Russian government tried to influence the outcome of the 2016 election. A strong majority of likely voters (74%) hold this view, including half (50%) who also believe that members of the Trump campaign helped Russia. Registered Democrats (76%) are far more likely than independents (44%) or Republicans (18%) to think that the Trump campaign intentionally helped Russia interfere in the election. Among the state’s likely voters, President Trump’s approval rating (38%) remains relatively unchanged. Seventy-five percent of registered Republicans approve of Trump, compared to 36 percent of independents and 10 percent of Democrats. Just 18 percent of likely voters approve of Congress. A Distrust of Government Californians tend to distrust government, with far stronger animus toward the federal government. Just 18 percent of likely voters say you can trust the federal government in Washington to do what is right just about always (3%) or most of the time (15%). State government fares slightly better. About four in ten likely voters (38%) think that they can trust the state government to do what is right just about always (6%) or most of the time (32%). Sixty-one percent express distrust in state government—including 13 percent who volunteer that they can never trust it to do what is right. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 5 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY 2018 California Election MAY 2018 Key Findings Democrat Gavin Newsom continues to lead in the governor’s race, with John Cox and Antonio Villaraigosa vying for the second spot in the top-two primary. Fifteen percent of likely voters are undecided. Attention to news about candidates for governor continues to grow, with 58 percent of likely voters following news at least fairly closely. (page 7) Most likely voters are now satisfied with their choices of gubernatorial candidates— Democrats are more likely than Republicans to be satisfied. Eight in ten likely voters say that the candidates’ performances in debates is at least somewhat important in deciding who to vote for; Democrats are more likely than Republicans to hold this view. (page 8) In the US Senate primary race, incumbent Dianne Feinstein has the support of 41 percent of likely voters, while 17 percent support Kevin de León. Thirty-six percent of likely voters are undecided, including 59 percent of Republicans and 47 percent of independents. Half of likely voters are satisfied with their choices of candidates (40% not satisfied). Democrats are far more likely than Republicans or independents to be satisfied (74% to 27%). (page 9) Forty-six percent of likely voters are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting in congressional races this year. Fifty-two percent of likely voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their House of Representatives election, but partisans are divided. When it comes to candidates for Congress, likely voters are divided about whether it’s more important to work with (47%) or push back against (46%) the Trump administration. (page 10) Percent likely voters June 2018 gubernatorial primary Gavin Newsom 25 John Cox 19 Antonio Villaraigosa 15 Travis Allen 11 John Chiang 9 Delaine Eastin 6 Someone else 1 Don’t know 15 0 20 40 Percent likely voters June 2018 US Senate primary 60 Don’t know 36% Dianne Feinstein 41% Someone else 5% Kevin de León 17% Likely voters November 2018 House races 100 80 60 52 38 40 20 61 29 Would vote or lean Dem Would vote or lean Rep 60 61 32 32 0 All likely voters Democraticheld seats Republican- Competitive held seats House districts PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 6 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 June Gubernatorial Primary With the June primary just weeks away, interest in the race continues to grow, with six in ten Californians following news about candidates very (19%) or fairly closely (39%). This share has increased from 30 percent (7% very, 23% fairly) in January, to 48 percent (14% very, 34% fairly) in March, and 54 percent (18% very, 36% fairly) in April. Attention levels among likely voters were somewhat similar in May 2010 (21% very, 46% fairly) prior to California’s last open gubernatorial election. Attention to news is fairly similar across parties. Among racial/ethnic groups, white likely voters are more likely than Latinos to be following news at least fairly closely. (Sample sizes for Asian American and African American likely voters are too small for separate analysis.) Interest in election news increases with education. “How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2018 governor's election?” Likely voters only Very closely Somewhat closely Not too closely Not at all closely Don’t know All likely voters 19% 39 30 11 1 Dem 20% 38 33 7 1 Party Rep 21% 40 24 14 – Ind 17% 43 30 10 – Latinos 19% 32 32 15 2 Race/Ethnicity Whites Other groups 18% 26% 42 39 30 27 10 9 –– Democrat Gavin Newsom (25%) continues to be the top choice among likely voters; support for Newsom was similar in December (23%), January (23%), March (28%), and April (26%) PPIC Statewide Surveys. With only the top two candidates advancing to the November general election, the battle to finish second is extremely important. Currently, John Cox (19%) and Antonio Villaraigosa (15%) are vying for the second spot in the top-two primary followed by Republican Travis Allen (11%), and Democrats John Chiang (9%) and Delaine Eastin (6%) (Only candidates with independently verifiable campaign organizations and significant resources for statewide campaigning were included; six of the candidates met this criteria.) Fifteen percent of likely voters are undecided. In April, Cox (15%) and Villaraigosa (13%) were virtually tied for second place, followed by Allen (10%), Chiang (7%), and Eastin (6%), with 22 percent undecided. Today, Newsom leads Villaraigosa among Democrats (42% to 19%), while Cox leads Allen among Republicans (44% to 22%). Independent voters equally support Cox and Newsom. Latino likely voters prefer Villaraigosa, while whites are divided between Newsom and Cox. Newsom leads in the San Francisco Bay Area (42%), while Cox leads in the Central Valley (29%) and Orange/San Diego (30%), and Villaraigosa leads in Los Angeles (29%). Cox (20%) and Newsom (19%) are leading in the Inland Empire. “If the June primary for governor were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?”* Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups Gavin Newsom 25% 42% 7% 18% 15% 27% 32% John Cox 19 2 44 18 8 24 14 Antonio Villaraigosa 15 19 4 14 39 7 10 Travis Allen John Chiang 11 1 22 15 3 13 13 9 11 7 8 6 8 16 Delaine Eastin Someone else (specify) 69 1 7 8 4 6 11 1 1 – 1 – Don't know 15 14 14 19 20 16 *For complete text of this question, including ballot designations, see p. 24. 9 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 7 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 June Gubernatorial Primary (continued) As the election grows closer, the share of likely voters who are satisfied with their choices of candidates has also increased: 64 percent of likely voters are satisfied and 27 percent are not satisfied. In March, 55 percent were satisfied, and 54 percent were satisfied in January. Today, 74 percent of Democrats are satisfied, compared to fewer Republicans (60%) and independents (55%). The share of Republicans who are satisfied has increased since January (38% January, 42% March, 60% today), while satisfaction has not changed much among Democrats (71% January, 71% March, 74% today). Satisfaction is higher among Latinos than whites; a majority of women (67%) and men (61%) are satisfied with their choices. Across regions and demographic groups, six in ten or more are satisfied— the lone exception is Orange/San Diego (59%). “In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the primary election for governor this June?” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups Satisfied 64% 74% 60% 55% 71% 61% 67% Not satisfied 27 18 30 36 22 29 25 Don’t know 9 8 10 9 7 10 9 The final gubernatorial debate occurred days before we began the survey. When it comes to deciding who to vote for in the election, eight in ten likely voters say the candidates’ performances in public debates are very (41%) or somewhat important (41%). More than seven in ten likely voters across parties, regions, and demographic groups say the candidates’ performances are important, but this view is more prevalent among Democrats (88%) than among Republicans (74%); 82 percent of independents view debates as important. Latinos (92%) and whites (75%) call the debates important, as do 89 percent of members of other racial/ethnic groups. The importance of debate performances declines with increasing age, educational attainment, and household income. “In deciding who to vote for in the election for governor, how important to you are the candidates’ performances in public debates?” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups Very important 41% 44% 33% 42% 62% 30% 49% Somewhat important 41 44 41 40 30 45 40 Not too important 12 8 18 10 4 16 7 Not at all important 6 4 6 75 7 3 Don’t know 1 – 3 1– 1 1 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 8 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 June US Senate Primary Senator Dianne Feinstein, who is seeking her fifth full term as a US senator, continues to lead state senator and fellow Democrat Kevin de León by double digits (41% to 17%) among likely voters. (Only candidates with independently verifiable campaign organizations and significant resources for statewide campaigning were included; two of the candidates met this criteria.) Thirty-six percent of likely voters are undecided. Findings were similar in March (42% Feinstein, 16% de León) and January (46% Feinstein, 17% de León). Two in three Democrats support Feinstein, while 59 percent of Republicans and 47 percent of independents are undecided. Feinstein leads de León among men (41% to 18%) and women (42% to 17%) and among whites (38% to 14%), while Latinos are divided (34% to 32%). Feinstein also leads across regions (San Francisco Bay Area 52% to 12%, Los Angeles 45% to 21%, Orange/San Diego 37% to 21%, Central Valley 37% to 13%, Inland Empire 29% to 20%). Feinstein’s lead over de León increases with age and educational attainment. “Keeping in mind that California has the top-two primary system, if the June primary for US Senator were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?”* Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Ind Race/Ethnicity Latinos Whites Dianne Feinstein 41% 65% 22% Kevin de León 17 20 10 Someone else (specify) 5 29 Don't know 36 13 59 *For complete text of this question, including ballot designations, see p. 24. 28% 20 5 47 34% 32 2 31 38% 14 7 41 Other groups 61% 10 3 26 Half of likely voters (50%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the primary election for US senator; 40 percent are not satisfied. Satisfaction was similar in March (47% satisfied, 44% not satisfied). Democrats are nearly three times as likely as Republicans to be satisfied; a majority of independents are not satisfied. Latino likely voters are much more satisfied than whites and members of other racial/ethnic groups. Satisfaction is higher in the San Francisco Bay Area (57%), Los Angeles (55%), and the Inland Empire (52%) than in Orange/San Diego (43%) and the Central Valley (41%). Six in ten likely voters with only a high school education are satisfied, compared to fewer than half in other education groups. Women (54%) are somewhat more satisfied than men (45%). Among those who are satisfied with their choices of candidates, 59 percent support Feinstein (20% de León). Among those who are not satisfied, 57 percent are undecided. “In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the primary election for US senator this June?” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups Satisfied 50% 74% 27% 38% 70% 44% 50% Not satisfied 40 19 59 53 21 46 40 Don’t know 11 7 14 9 9 11 10 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 9 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 Congressional Elections With California set to be a battleground state in US House elections this November, almost half of likely voters (46%) say they are extremely (20%) or very enthusiastic (26%) about voting in races for Congress this year. Registered voters in our survey (15% extremely, 22% very) are somewhat less likely than voters nationwide in a May CNN poll (23% extremely, 22% very) to be enthusiastic. Among California likely voters, Democrats (56%) are somewhat more likely than Republicans (42%) and independents (39%) to be at least very enthusiastic about voting in races for Congress this year. If the 2018 election for US House of Representatives were held today, a majority of likely voters (52%) say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate, while 38 percent would vote for or lean toward the Republican candidate. Most partisans would support their own party, while independents are divided. Democratic candidates are preferred by a 32-point margin (61% to 29%) in Democratic-held districts, while Republican candidates are preferred by a 28-point margin (60% to 32%) in districts with Republican-held seats. Republican candidates are also preferred by similar margins in the 10 districts deemed competitive by the Cook Political Report (9 of the 10 are Republicanheld seats). The Democratic candidate is preferred by majorities in the San Francisco Bay Area (66% to 25%), Los Angeles (57% to 30%) and the Inland Empire (55% to 42%), while about half in the Central Valley (53% to 39%) and Orange/San Diego (50% to 41%) prefer the Republican candidate. Registered voters in our survey (56%) are more likely than voters nationwide in the CNN poll to prefer Democratic candidates (47% Democratic candidate, 44% Republican candidate). “If the 2018 election for US House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district? (If other/unsure: As of today, do you lean more toward the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?)” Likely voters only Republican/ Lean Republican Democratic/ Lean Democratic All likely voters 38% 52 Party Dem Rep 5% 86% 91 8 Ind 38% 43 Race/Ethnicity Latinos Whites Other groups 19% 49% 24% 63 44 69 Competitive House districts 61% 32 Don’t know 10 4 6 19 18 7 6 7 Californians are divided on whether candidates for US Congress should work with the Trump administration or push back against the Trump administration. There is a wide partisan divide, and half of independents prefer working with Trump. Notably, one in five Democrats say candidates should work with the Trump administration. Latinos are more likely to prefer pushing back while whites are more likely to prefer working with the administration. Majorities in the Central Valley (63%) and Orange/San Diego (55%) say work with, while a majority in the San Francisco Bay Area (54%) say push back against the Trump administration; Los Angeles (43% work with, 48% push back) and Inland Empire residents (50% work with, 45% push back) are divided. “Which of the following is more important to you in candidates for US Congress—that they work with the Trump administration or that they push back against the Trump administration?” Likely voters only Work with the Trump administration Push back against the Trump administration All likely voters 47% 46 Party Dem Rep 19% 73 87% 11 Ind 49% 38 Race/Ethnicity Latinos Whites Other groups 30% 54% 44% 61 41 43 Competitive House districts 62% 33 Both (volunteered) 3 4 16 4 2 6 – About the same 4 4 17 5 2 7 5 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 10 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY State and National Issues MAY 2018 Key Findings Forty-eight percent of Californians approve of Governor Brown’s job performance, while 44 percent approve of the state legislature. The ratings were similar a year ago. (page 12) Thirty percent of Californians approve of President Trump, while 24 percent approve of the US Congress. The president’s approval rating is higher in national polls. (page 13) Californians most often name jobs and the economy or immigration as the most important issues facing the people of California. Half expect good economic times in the state over the next 12 months. (page 14) Six in ten Californians are in favor of the governor’s revised budget plan for the 2018–19 fiscal year. Three in four say his plan for nearly $4 billion in one-time spending is a good idea. (page 15) A majority of Californians say the state government in Sacramento can be trusted only some of the time or never (56%). Seven in ten say this about the federal government (73%). (page 16) Three in four Californians view immigrants as a benefit to the state. More than eight in ten adults say that there should be a way for undocumented immigrants currently living in the US to stay in the country legally, if certain requirements are met. (page 17) Forty-five percent of Californians have a favorable opinion of the Affordable Care Act. A majority of adults (64%) favor single-payer health insurance; however, support declines (41%) if it means raising taxes. (page 18) Californians are divided over the motivation of the Russian investigation. Majorities say Russia tried to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. (page 19) Percent all adults Percent all adults Percent all adults Approval ratings of state elected officials 100 Governor Brown California Legislature 80 60 48 40 44 20 0 Approval ratings of federal elected officials 100 President Trump 80 US Congress 60 40 33 30 20 0 30 24 Belief that immigrants are a benefit to California 100 78 80 74 70 71 68 60 80 40 20 0 All adults Central Valley Inland Empire Los Orange/ San Angeles San Diego Francisco Bay Area PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 11 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 Approval Ratings of State Elected Officials As California voters are making ballot choices in the June gubernatorial primary, 48 percent of adults and 52 percent of likely voters approve of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job. Brown’s approval rating was similar in April (52% adults, 50% likely voters) and last May (52% adults, 50% likely voters). Today, Democrats (75%) are far more likely than independents (39%) and Republicans (23%) to approve. Half or more in the San Francisco Bay Area (57%), Inland Empire (51%), and Los Angeles (50%) approve, as do four in ten elsewhere (41% Central Valley, 40% Orange San Diego). African Americans (58%) and Latinos (54%) are more likely than Asian Americans (44%) and whites (43%) to approve. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California?” Approve Disapprove All adults 48% 31% Likely voters 52 41 Democrats 75 13 Party Republicans 23 71 Independents 39 43 Central Valley 41 37 Inland Empire 51 33 Region Los Angeles 50 28 Orange/San Diego 40 39 San Francisco Bay Area 57 23 Don’t know 21% 7 13 6 18 22 17 22 22 20 And as California voters consider their choices in legislative primaries, 44 percent of adults and 42 percent of likely voters approve of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job. Approval was similar in April (46% adults, 42% likely voters) and last May (46% adults, 41% likely voters). Today, Democrats (63%) are much more likely to approve than are independents (34%) and Republicans (20%). Across the state’s major regions, approval ranges from a high of 49 percent in the San Francisco Bay Area to a low of 37 percent in the Central Valley. A majority of Latinos (53%) say they approve, but fewer in other racial/ethnic groups agree (49% African Americans, 43% Asian Americans, 38% whites). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job?” Approve Disapprove Don’t know All adults 44% 38% 18% Likely voters 42 48 10 Democrats 63 21 16 Party Republicans 20 72 7 Independents 34 52 14 Central Valley 37 43 20 Inland Empire 42 37 21 Region Los Angeles 46 36 18 Orange/San Diego 43 41 16 San Francisco Bay Area 49 33 18 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 12 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 Approval Ratings of Federal Elected Officials President Trump’s approval rating (30% adults, 38% likely voters) is relatively unchanged from March (30% adults, 37% likely voters) and is slightly higher than last May (27% adults, 33% likely voters). Today, 75 percent of Republicans approve of President Trump, compared to 36 percent of independents and 10 percent of Democrats. Across the state’s regions, approval ranges from a high of four in ten in the Central Valley (41%) to one in four in Los Angeles (24%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (23%). Across racial/ethnic groups, whites (42%) are more likely to approve than Asian Americans (28%), Latinos (17%), and African Americans (5%). A recent Gallup weekly tracking poll showed Trump with a higher approval rating among adults nationwide (42% approve, 54% disapprove). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president?” Approve Disapprove Don’t know All adults 30% 63% 7% Likely voters 38 58 4 Democrats 10 87 3 Party Republicans 75 21 4 Independents 36 56 8 Central Valley 41 53 5 Inland Empire 29 62 9 Region Los Angeles 24 71 5 Orange/San Diego 39 55 6 San Francisco Bay Area 23 68 9 Approval levels for the US Congress (24% adults, 18% likely voters) are similar to those in March (29% adults, 22% likely voters) and last May (26% adults, 19% likely voters). Today, fewer than three in ten across parties (29% Republicans, 18% Democrats, 17% independents) approve. Fewer than three in ten adults approve across the state’s regions (29% Orange/San Diego, 28% Central Valley, 28% Inland Empire, 24% San Francisco Bay Area, 19% Los Angeles). Approval of Congress declines as income and education levels rise, and it is similar among men and women. A May Gallup poll found that adults nationwide (17% approve, 79% disapprove) are more disapproving than Californians. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the US Congress is handling its job?” All adults Likely voters Party Region Democrats Republicans Independents Central Valley Inland Empire Los Angeles Orange/San Diego San Francisco Bay Area Approve 24% 18 18 29 17 28 28 19 29 24 Disapprove 66% 78 77 67 74 60 62 70 66 67 Don’t know 10% 5 5 5 9 12 9 11 5 9 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 13 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 Most Important Issues Californians are most likely to name either jobs and the economy (18% adults, 15% likely voters) or immigration (15% adults, 19% likely voters) as the most important issue facing people in California today. Last May, jobs and the economy (22% adults, 19% likely voters) was mentioned most often as the top issue in California. Today, similar proportions of residents across the state’s regions mention jobs and economy as the top issue; however, in the San Francisco Bay Area residents are more likely to mention housing (21%). Democrats are more likely than Republicans to mention jobs and the economy (20% to 11%); Republicans are more likely than Democrats to mention immigration (28% to 11%). Latinos (18%) and whites (16%) name immigration as the most important issue more often than do Asian Americans (7%) and African Americans (5%). “First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today?” Top issues Jobs, economy All adults 18% Central Valley 18% Inland Empire 22% Region Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego 18% 17% San Francisco Bay Area 20% Immigration, illegal immigration Housing costs, housing availability Crime, gangs, drugs Government in general, problems with elected official, political parties Homelessness 15 9 6 5 5 17 4 7 5 3 15 7 7 4 4 15 7 4 5 8 17 9 7 6 4 11 21 4 5 4 Water, drought 56 6 5 8 2 Likely voters 15% 19 9 4 7 5 5 When asked about future economic conditions in California, about half of adults (51%) and likely voters (50%) say the state will have good times financially during the next 12 months. Californians had similar perceptions in January (56% adults, 56% likely voters) and last September (51% adults, 51% likely voters). Majorities in Orange/San Diego (58%), the San Francisco Bay Area (54%), and the Inland Empire (53%) are expecting good times; 46 percent in Los Angeles and 45 percent in the Central Valley say the same. Democrats (59%) are more optimistic than independents (44%) and Republicans (41%). Men (59%) are more optimistic than women (43%). Asian Americans (58%) expect good times financially more often than whites (51%), Latinos (49%), and African Americans (42%) do. “Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?” Good times All adults 51% Central Valley 45% Inland Empire 53% Region Los Angeles 46% Orange/ San Diego 58% San Francisco Bay Area 54% Bad times 39 47 40 46 30 34 Don’t know 10 8 7 8 12 12 Likely voters 50% 40 10 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 14 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 State Budget Governor Brown’s state budget proposal in January included $132 billion in General Fund spending. It increased spending on K–14 and higher education, health and human services, and prisons and corrections, while placing $5 billion in the state’s reserves—including $3.5 billion in the rainy day fund. It did not propose new taxes. After being read a brief description of the governor’s budget proposal in our January PPIC Statewide Survey, two in three Californians said they were in favor of it (67% adults, 66% likely voters), including majorities across the state’s regions and demographic groups. More recently, Governor Brown released the May revision of his plan—the last during his tenure. This version raises General Fund spending to $138 billion, and continues to call for increased spending on K–14 and higher education, health and human services, and prisons and corrections. It directs $4.4 billion to the state’s reserves and includes nearly $4 billion in one-time spending. The revised plan does not propose any new taxes. After being read a brief description of the revised budget plan, six in ten Californians (63% adults, 60% likely voters) say they favor it. Support is divided along party lines (78% Democrats, 58% independents, 36% Republicans), but majorities are in favor across regional, age, education, income, and racial/ethnic groups. “Governor Brown recently released a revised budget plan for the next fiscal year that includes about $138 billion in general fund spending. The proposed budget will increase spending on K–14 and higher education, health and human services, and prisons and corrections. The proposed budget plan puts $4.4 billion into the state’s reserves to bring the rainy day fund to 100 percent of its constitutional target. It includes nearly $4 billion in one-time spending and includes no new taxes. In general, do you favor or oppose the governor’s budget plan?” All adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind voters Favor 63% 78% 36% 58% 60% Oppose 25 13 52 32 31 Don’t know/have not heard anything about the budget 12 9 12 10 9 Where would the nearly $4 billion in one-time spending go? It is focused on three budget areas: $2 billion for infrastructure projects, $359 million to address homelessness, and $312 million for mental health programs. After hearing a brief description of the amount and purpose of this one-time spending plan, most Californians (78% adults, 71% likely voters) say this proposal is a good idea. Majorities of voters across parties say it is a good idea, but Republicans (53%) are less supportive than others. Strong majorities of Californians across the state’s regional, age, education, income, and racial/ethnic groups support this plan. “The nearly $4 billion in one-time general fund spending is focused in three areas with $2 billion going to infrastructure projects, $359 million to address homelessness, and $312 for mental health programs. In general, do you think this is a good idea or a bad idea?” All adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind voters Good idea 78% 89% 53% 73% 71% Bad idea 17 8 37 20 23 Don’t know 5 3 10 7 6 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 15 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 Trust in State and Federal Government Nearly half of Californians (47%) and likely voters (48%) think that they can trust the state government to do what is right only some of the time, while 9 percent of Californians and 13 percent of likely voters volunteer that they can never trust the state government to do what is right. In periodic surveys since August 2002, a majority of adults and likely voters have expressed distrust in state government; however, distrust is currently at its lowest level since 2002. Today, partisans are divided: Republicans (82%) and independents (68%) are much more likely than Democrats (40%) to trust the state government only some or none of the time. Among racial/ethnic groups, whites (62%) and African Americans (61%) are the most likely to express distrust, followed by Latinos (50%) and Asians (48%). Majorities across regions express distrust (62% Orange/San Diego, 59% Inland Empire, 58% Los Angeles, 55% Central Valley)— with the exception of the San Francisco Bay Area (46%). “How much of the time do you think you can trust the state government in Sacramento to do what is right?” All adults Dem Party Rep Ind Just about always 9% 7% 4% 3% Most of the time 32 51 13 28 Only some of the time 47 37 62 55 None of the time (volunteered) 9 3 20 13 Don’t know 32 1 1 Likely voters 6% 32 48 13 1 Californians continue to be distrustful of the federal government. A solid majority (62%) think the federal government can be trusted to do what is right only some of the time, while 11 percent of adults volunteer that it can never be trusted. Only 24 percent say the federal government can be trusted just about always (6%) or most of the time (18%). Likely voters are slightly more distrustful (68% only some of the time, 13% none of the time). Similar proportions of Californians held this view in our March 2017 survey (62% only some of the time, 7% none of the time). Today, Democrats (81%) and independents (80%) are somewhat more likely than Republicans (73%) to express distrust. Majorities of Californians across all regions and demographic groups express distrust toward the federal government. “How much of the time do you think you can trust the federal government in Washington today to do what is right?” All adults Dem Party Rep Ind Just about always 6% 2% 5% 3% Most of the time 18 15 20 16 Only some of the time 62 68 66 66 None of the time (volunteered) 11 13 7 14 Don’t know 32 2 1 Likely voters 3% 15 68 13 1 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 16 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 Immigration Policy In March, the US Justice Department announced that it was suing California over three immigration-related laws passed by the state legislature in 2017. Since then, 6 counties and at least 13 cities have voiced opposition to the state sanctuary laws, either by passing resolutions or by joining the Justice Department’s lawsuit against California. Following these events, how do residents view immigrants and immigration policy? Perception of immigrants in California 100 Immigrants are a benefit Immigrants are a burden 80 74 60 40 Percent adults Today, most adults (74%) and likely voters (67%) say that immigrants are a benefit to the state because of 20 20 their hard work and job skills. Californians held similar views last September (76%). Democrats (86%) and independents (75%) today are far more likely than 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Republicans (36%) to say immigrants are a benefit. At least six in ten across all regions and demographic groups hold this view. Across racial/ethnic groups, Latinos (86%), African Americans (81%), and Asians (80%) are the most likely to say immigrants are a benefit; fewer whites (64%) express this view. “Please indicate which statement comes closest to your own view —even if neither is exactly right. Immigrants today are a benefit to California because of their hard work and job skills or Immigrants today are a burden to California because they use public services.” Immigrants are a benefit Immigrants are a burden Don't know All adults 74% 20 6 Dem 86% 10 4 Party Rep 36% 55 9 Ind 75% 19 6 Race/Ethnicity African Asian Americans Americans Latinos 81% 80% 86% 13 14 9 6 65 Whites 64% 30 6 Most California adults (85%) and likely voters (80%) say there should be a way for undocumented immigrants to stay in the US legally, if certain requirement are met. Similar shares of Californians held these views in December (86% allowed to stay legally, 12% not allowed to stay). Overwhelming majorities of Democrats (93%) and independents (82%) say undocumented immigrants should be allowed to stay, as do a strong majority of Republicans (66%). Across regions, at least eight in ten adults say undocumented immigrants should be allowed to stay legally, and at least three-quarters of adults across age, education, income, and racial/ethnic groups say the same. Latinos (95%) are the most likely to say undocumented immigrants should be allowed to stay legally, followed by African Americans (82%), Asian Americans (also 82%), and whites (79%). “Which comes closer to your view about how to handle undocumented immigrants who are living in the US? There should be a way for them to stay in the country legally, if certain requirements are met, or they should not be allowed to stay in this country legally?” A way for them to stay legally Should not be allowed to stay Don't know All adults 85% 13 2 Dem 93% 6 1 Party Rep 66% 31 3 Ind 82% 15 3 Race/Ethnicity African Asian Americans Americans Latinos 82% 82% 95% 15 14 5 3 51 Whites 79% 19 2 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 17 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 Health Care Policy Support for the Affordable Care Act Amid continued uncertainty over the future of the federal Affordable Care Act (ACA), 45 percent of Californians have a generally favorable opinion of the 100 80 Generally favorable Generally unfavorable Percent adults health reform law, while 39 percent have a generally unfavorable opinion. Today’s finding marks a 60 45 decrease in the law’s favorability rating from last September (58% favorable, 37% unfavorable), but it is similar to the rating a year ago (48% favorable, 41% 40 20 39 unfavorable). Among likely voters today, 45 percent view the law favorably. A solid majority of Democrats 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (61%) have a favorable opinion of the ACA, while a strong majority of Republicans (66%) view it unfavorably. Independents are divided. Californians without health insurance (48%) are somewhat more likely than those with health insurance (38%) to have an unfavorable opinion of the law. Similar shares of adults nationwide have a favorable opinion of the law (49% favorable, 43% unfavorable), according to an April Kaiser Family Foundation survey. “As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it?” All adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind voters Favorable 45% 61% 22% 43% 45% Unfavorable 39 27 66 42 45 Don’t know 16 12 12 14 10 A single-payer state health insurance program is now under discussion. Senate Bill 562, which would establish such a program, passed in the senate last year and is currently held in the state assembly. How do Californians feel about this idea today? A majority of adults (64%) and likely voters (53%) favor a single-payer state plan. However, if this plan requires raising taxes, support declines (41% adults still favor, 41% likely voters still favor). Similar shares of adults and likely voters held this view last May. An overwhelming majority of Democrats (78%) favor a single-payer state system—including 62 percent even if it means raising taxes—while a strong majority of Republicans (67%) are opposed. A majority of independents (55%) are in favor, while 36 percent are opposed. Majorities across demographic groups favor a single-payer system, but if raising taxes is required, support falls below 50 percent for all groups—with the exception of college graduates (51%). “Do you favor or oppose having guaranteed health insurance coverage in which all Californians would get their insurance through a single state government health plan? (If favor: Do you favor it even if it means raising taxes?)” Favor Favor, even if it means raising taxes Favor, not if it means raising taxes Oppose All adults 64% 41 23 29 Dem 78% 62 16 16 Party Rep 30% 17 13 67 Ind 55% 39 16 36 Likely voters 53% 41 12 41 Don’t know 77 3 96 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 18 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 US Election and Russia One year into the special counsel investigation into Russian involvement in the 2016 election, what do Californians think? Is the investigation is justified or politically motivated? Residents are divided: 49 percent of Californians say the investigation is politically motivated, while 41 percent say it is justified. Responses are similar among likely voters. These responses are similar to those of adults nationwide in a May CBS News poll (53% politically motivated, 44% justified). Partisans view this issue very differently: 79 percent of Republicans and 57 percent of independents say the investigation is politically motivated, compared to only 22 percent of Democrats. Residents in Orange/San Diego (56%), the Inland Empire (54%), and the Central Valley (53%) are more likely to say that the investigation is politically motivated than are those in Los Angeles (48%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (38%). African Americans (68%) are the most likely to say that the investigation is justified (44% whites, 36% Asian Americans, 37% Latinos). “As you may know, there is an investigation into dealings between Trump associates and Russia. Do you think the investigation is justified, or is the investigation politically motivated?” All adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind voters Justified 41% 72% 17% 36% 49% Politically motivated 49 22 79 57 48 Don’t know 10 6 5 7 4 Despite these divisions, a strong majority (67% adults, 74% likely voters) think the Russian government tried to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. Majorities across parties, regions, and demographic groups think the Russian government tried to influence the election. The shares holding this view are somewhat higher today than when we asked this question last May (58% adults, 61% likely voters). Today, these shares include half of adults and likely voters who think members of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign intentionally helped Russian efforts. Last May, a similar proportion of California adults and likely voters held this view (47% each). Today, Democrats (76%) are far more likely than independents (44%) and Republicans (18%) to think the Trump campaign intentionally helped with Russian interference. Among those who say that the Trump campaign intentionally helped, 64 percent say the investigation into dealings between Trump associates and Russia is justified. Among those who say the investigation is justified, 76 percent say the Trump campaign intentionally helped with Russian interference. “Given what you’ve heard or read, do you think the Russian government tried to influence the outcome of the 2016 US presidential election, or not? (If yes: Do you think some members of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign intentionally helped Russian efforts to influence the election, or not?)” All adults Dem Party Rep Ind Likely voters Yes 67% 84% 54% 69% 74% Yes, and Trump campaign intentionally helped 50 76 18 44 Yes, and Trump campaign did not intentionally help 12 5 31 17 Yes, don’t know if Trump campaign intentionally helped 5 3 5 8 No 24 10 40 23 50 18 6 22 Don’t know 10 5 6 8 4 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 19 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Regional Map MAY 2018 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 20 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Methodology MAY 2018 The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance from associate survey director Dean Bonner and survey research associate Alyssa Dykman, co-project managers for this survey. Research support was provided by Lunna Lopes and Renatta DeFever. The Californians and Their Government series is supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle. The PPIC Statewide Survey invites input, comments, and suggestions from policy and public opinion experts and from its own advisory committee, but survey methods, questions, and content are determined solely by PPIC’s survey team. Findings in this report are based on a survey of 1,702 California adult residents, including 1,191 interviewed on cell phones and 511 interviewed on landline telephones. Interviews took an average of 17 minutes to complete. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights from May 11–20, 2018. Cell phone interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of cell phone numbers. All cell phone numbers with California area codes were eligible for selection. Once a cell phone user was reached, it was verified that this person was age 18 or older, a resident of California, and in a safe place to continue the survey (e.g., not driving). Cell phone respondents were offered a small reimbursement to help defray the cost of the call. Cell phone interviews were conducted with adults who have cell phone service only and with those who have both cell phone and landline service in the household. Landline interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible for selection. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using a “youngest male/female” method to avoid biases in age and gender. For both cell phones and landlines, telephone numbers were called as many as eight times. When no contact with an individual was made, calls to a number were limited to six. Also, to increase our ability to interview Asian American adults, we made up to three additional calls to phone numbers estimated by Survey Sampling International as likely to be associated with Asian American individuals. Live landline and cell phone interviews were conducted by Abt Associates in English and Spanish, according to respondents’ preferences. Accent on Languages, Inc., translated new survey questions into Spanish, with assistance from Renatta DeFever. Abt Associates uses the US Census Bureau’s 2012–2016 American Community Survey’s (ACS) Public Use Microdata Series for California (with regional coding information from the University of Minnesota’s Integrated Public Use Microdata Series for California) to compare certain demographic characteristics of the survey sample—region, age, gender, race/ethnicity, and education—with the characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the ACS figures. To estimate landline and cell phone service in California, Abt Associates used 2016 state-level estimates released by the National Center for Health Statistics—which used data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the ACS. The estimates for California were then compared against landline and cell phone service reported in this survey. We also used voter registration data from the California Secretary of State to compare the party registration of registered voters in our sample to party registration statewide. The landline and cell phone samples were then integrated using a frame integration weight, while sample balancing adjusted for differences across regional, age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, telephone service, and party registration groups. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 21 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2018 The sampling error, taking design effects from weighting into consideration, is ±3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total unweighted sample of 1,702 adults. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 3.1 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for unweighted subgroups is larger: for the 1,336 registered voters, the sampling error is ±3.4 percent; for the 901 likely voters, it is ±4.1 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. We present results for five geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, “Inland Empire” refers to Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, and “Orange/San Diego” refers to Orange and San Diego Counties. Residents of other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes for these less populous areas are not large enough to report separately. We also present results for congressional districts currently held by Democrats or Republicans, based on residential zip code and party of the local US House member. We analyze the results of those who live in competitive house districts as determined by the Cook Political Report’s 2018 House Race Ratings updated May 10, 2018. We present results for non-Hispanic whites, who account for 42 percent of the state’s adult population, and also for Latinos, who account for about a third of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest-growing voter groups. We also present results for non-Hispanic Asian Americans, who make up about 15 percent of the state’s adult population, and non-Hispanic African Americans, who comprise about 6 percent. Results for other racial/ethnic groups—such as Native Americans—are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes are not large enough for separate analysis. Results for African American and Asian American likely voters are combined with those of other racial/ethnic groups because sample sizes for African American and Asian American likely voters are too small for separate analysis. We compare the opinions of those who report they are registered Democrats, registered Republicans, and decline-to-state or independent voters; the results for those who say they are registered to vote in other parties are not large enough for separate analysis. We also analyze the responses of likely voters—so designated per their responses to survey questions about voter registration, previous election participation, intentions to vote this year, reportedly casting a mail ballot for the upcoming primary, attention to election news, and current interest in politics. The percentages presented in the report tables and in the questionnaire may not add to 100 due to rounding. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey results to those in our earlier surveys and to those in national surveys by CBS News, CNN, Gallup, and Kaiser Family Foundation. Additional details about our methodology can be found at www.ppic.org/wpcontent/uploads/SurveyMethodology.pdf and are available upon request through surveys@ppic.org. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 22 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Questionnaire and Results MAY 2018 CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT May 11–20, 2018 1,702 California Adult Residents: English, Spanish MARGIN OF ERROR ±3.1% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100 DUE TO ROUNDING First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today? [code, don’t read] 18% 15 9 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 9 5 jobs, economy immigration, illegal immigration housing costs, availability crime, gangs, drugs government in general, problems with elected officials, parties homelessness water, drought environment, pollution, global warming state budget, deficit, taxes education, schools, teachers gas prices, oil prices infrastructure guns, gun control, school safety health care, health insurance poverty, the poor other (specify) don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California? 48% 31 21 approve disapprove don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job? 44% 38 18 approve disapprove don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 51% 39 10 good times bad times don’t know Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote in California? 68% yes [ask q5a] 32 no [skip to q6b] 5a. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or are you registered as a decline-to-state or independent voter? 44% 26 5 25 Democrat [ask q6] Republican [skip to q6a] another party (specify) [skip to q7] independent [skip to q6b] Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 55% 41 4 strong not very strong don’t know [skip to q7] 6a. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 59% 36 5 strong not very strong don’t know [skip to q7] Californians and Their Government 23 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY 6b. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party? 21% 45 24 10 Republican Party Democratic Party neither (volunteered) don’t know [likely voters only] As you may know, California now has a top-two primary system for statewide races in which voters can cast ballots for any candidate, regardless of party, and the two candidates receiving the most votes— regardless of party—will advance to the general election. If the June primary for governor were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? [rotate names and then ask “or someone else?”] 25% 19 15 11 9 6 1 15 Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, Lieutenant Governor/Businessman John Cox, a Republican, Businessman/Taxpayer Advocate Antonio Villaraigosa, a Democrat, Public Policy Advisor Travis Allen, a Republican, California Assemblyman/Businessman John Chiang, a Democrat, California State Treasurer Delaine Eastin, a Democrat, Educator/Youth Advocate someone else (specify) don’t know [likely voters only] How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2018 governor’s election—very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 19% 39 30 11 1 very closely fairly closely not too closely not at all closely don’t know MAY 2018 [likely voters only] In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the primary election for governor this June? 64% 27 9 satisfied not satisfied don’t know [likely voters only] In deciding who to vote for in the election for governor, how important to you are the candidates’ performances in public debates—very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 41% 41 12 6 1 very important somewhat important not too important not at all important don’t know [likely voters only] Keeping in mind that California has the top-two primary system, if the June primary for US Senator were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? [rotate names and then ask “or someone else?”] 41% 17 5 36 Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat, US Senator Kevin de León, a Democrat, California Senator someone else (specify) don’t know [likely voters only] In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the primary election for US Senator this June? 50% 40 11 satisfied not satisfied don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 24 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Changing topics, [likely voters only] If the 2018 election for US House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for [rotate] (1) the Republican candidate [or] (2) the Democratic candidate] in your district? [If other/don’t know: As of today, do you lean more toward [read in same order as above] (1) the Republican candidate [or] (2) the Democratic candidate?] 38% 52 10 Rep/lean Rep Dem/lean Dem don’t know [likely voters only] Which of the following is more important to you in candidates for US Congress—[rotate] (1) that they work with the Trump Administration [or] (2) that they push back against the Trump Administration? 47% 46 3 4 work with the Trump Administration push back against the Trump Administration both (volunteered) don’t know [likely voters only] How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for Congress this year—extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic? 20% 26 32 14 6 1 extremely enthusiastic very enthusiastic somewhat enthusiastic not too enthusiastic not at all enthusiastic don’t know [question 16 not asked] PPIC.ORG/SURVEY MAY 2018 Next, Governor Brown recently released a revised budget plan for the next fiscal year that includes about $138 billion in general fund spending. The proposed budget will increase spending on K-14 and higher education, health and human services, and prisons and corrections. The proposed budget plan puts $4.4 billion into the state’s reserves to bring the rainy day fund to 100 percent of its constitutional target. It includes nearly $4 billion in one-time spending and includes no new taxes. In general, do you favor or oppose the governor’s budget plan? 63% 25 4 8 favor oppose haven’t heard anything about the budget (volunteered) don’t know 17a. The nearly $4 billion in one-time general fund spending is focused in three areas with $2 billion going to infrastructure projects, $359 million to address homelessness, and $312 million for mental health programs. In general, do you think this is a good idea or a bad idea? 78% 17 5 good idea bad idea don’t know [questions 18 and 19 not asked] Next, Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president? 30% 63 7 approve disapprove don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the US Congress is handling its job? 24% 66 10 approve disapprove don’t know [question 22 not asked] Californians and Their Government 25 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY On another topic, [rotate questions 23 and 24] How much of the time do you think you can trust the state government in Sacramento to do what is right—just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time? 9% 32 47 9 3 just about always most of the time only some of the time none of the time (volunteered) don’t know How much of the time do you think you can trust the federal government in Washington today to do what is right—just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time? 6% 18 62 11 3 just about always most of the time only some of the time none of the time (volunteered) don’t know Changing topics, Please indicate which statement comes closest to your own view—even if neither is exactly right. [rotate] (1) Immigrants today are a benefit to California because of their hard work and job skills [or] (2) Immigrants today are a burden to California because they use public services. 74% 20 6 immigrants are a benefit to California immigrants are a burden to California don’t know Which comes closer to your view about how to handle undocumented immigrants who are living in the US [rotate] (1) There should be a way for them to stay in the country legally, if certain requirements are met [or] (2) They should not be allowed to stay in this country legally? 85% 13 2 allowed to stay legally not allowed to stay legally don’t know [question 27 not asked] MAY 2018 Next, As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a [rotate] (1) [generally favorable] [or] (2) [generally unfavorable] opinion of it? [Interviewer note: If respondent asks if the health reform law refers to the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare, please answer “yes”] 45% 39 16 generally favorable generally unfavorable don’t know Do you favor or oppose having guaranteed health insurance coverage in which all Californians would get their insurance through a single state government health plan? (If favor, ask: “Do you favor it even if it means raising taxes?”) 64% 41 23 29 7 favor favor, even if it means raising taxes favor, not if it means raising taxes oppose don’t know [question 30 not asked] Next, As you may know, there is an investigation into dealings between Trump associates and Russia. Do you think the investigation is justified, or is the investigation politically motivated? 41% 49 10 justified politically motivated don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 26 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Given what you’ve heard or read, do you think the Russian government tried to influence the outcome of the 2016 US presidential election, or not? (If yes, ask: “Do you think some members of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign intentionally helped Russian efforts to influence the election, or not?”) 67% yes 50 yes, and Trump campaign intentionally helped 12 yes, but Trump campaign did not help 5 yes, don’t know if Trump campaign helped 24 no 10 don’t know Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 13% 20 30 19 13 4 very liberal somewhat liberal middle-of-the-road somewhat conservative very conservative don’t know MAY 2018 Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics—a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none?` 22% 38 29 10 1 great deal fair amount only a little none don’t know [d1-d18 demographic questions] PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 27 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect Angela Glover Blackwell President and CEO PolicyLink Mollyann Brodie Senior Vice President Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Bill Lane Center for the American West Stanford University Jon Cohen Vice President of Survey Research SurveyMonkey Joshua J. Dyck Co-Director Center for Public Opinion University of Massachusetts, Lowell Lisa García Bedolla Director Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley Russell Hancock President and CEO Joint Venture Silicon Valley Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Professor Sol Price School of Public Policy University of Southern California Robert Lapsley President California Business Roundtable Carol S. Larson President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Sonja Petek Fiscal and Policy Analyst California Legislative Analyst’s Office Lisa Pitney Vice President of Government Relations The Walt Disney Company Mindy Romero Founder and Director California Civic Engagement Project at the UC Davis Center for Regional Change Robert K. Ross, MD President and CEO The California Endowment Most Reverend Jaime Soto Bishop of Sacramento Roman Catholic Diocese of Sacramento Carol Whiteside Principal California Strategies The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PPIC BOARD OF DIRECTORS Mas Masumoto, Chair Author and Farmer Mark Baldassare President and CEO Public Policy Institute of California Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect María Blanco Executive Director University of California Immigrant Legal Services Center Louise Henry Bryson Chair Emerita, Board of Trustees J. Paul Getty Trust A. Marisa Chun Partner McDermott Will & Emery LLP Chet Hewitt President and CEO Sierra Health Foundation Phil Isenberg Former Chair Delta Stewardship Council Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Steven A. Merksamer Senior Partner Nielsen, Merksamer, Parrinello, Gross & Leoni, LLP Leon E. Panetta Chairman The Panetta Institute for Public Policy Gerald L. Parsky Chairman Aurora Capital Group Kim Polese Chairman ClearStreet, Inc. Gaddi H. Vasquez Senior Vice President, Government Affairs Edison International Southern California Edison Public Policy Institute of California 500 Washington Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, CA 94111 T: 415.291.4400 F: 415.291.4401 PPIC.ORG PPIC Sacramento Center Senator Office Building 1121 L Street, Suite 801 Sacramento, CA 95814 T: 916.440.1120 F: 916.440.1121"
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