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This is the 145 th PPIC Statewide Sur vey in a series that was inaugurated in April 1998 and has generated a database of responses from more than 304,000 Californians. This is the 64th in the Californians and Their Government series. The survey is conducted periodically to examine the social, economic, and political trends that influence public policy preferences and ballot choices. Suppor ted with funding from The James Ir vine Foundation, the series seeks to inform decisionmakers, raise public awareness, and stimulate policy discussions and debate about impor tant state and national issues. This sur vey took place in the final weeks leading up to the November 4 election. This election features six ballot propositions , including a bond measure to fund water projects —this in the midst of a severe drought . California v oters will also decide on the creation of a budget stabilization account , regulation of changes to health insurance rates, and chang es to sentencing requirements for cer tain offenses . The U.S. Supreme Cour t rejected cases to overturn bans on same -sex marriage in five states, and the Vatican is also consideri ng a more lenient stance toward div orce and gay marriage. The second open enrollment period under the 2010 health care law is about to begin. The sur vey presents the responses of 1,704 adult residents throughout California, inter viewed in English or Spanish by landline or cell phone. It includes findings on the following topics:  November 2014 election, including preferences in the governor’s race, s atisfaction with candidate choices , and enthusiasm about voting in the election; par ty preferences in the elections for the U.S. House of Representatives and the California State Assembly ; suppor t for and perceptions of the impor tance of four propositions: Proposition 1 (authorizes $7.5 billi on for water quality, supply, treatment, and storage projects), Proposition 2 (creates a state budget stabilization account), Proposition 45 (requires approval for changes to health insurance rates), Proposition 47 (changes sentencing for cer tain drug and proper ty offenses) .  State and national issues , including views on the state’s outlook; approval ratings of state and federal elected officials ; views on the seriousness of regional water supply issues , attention to news about the current drought, and perce ptions of the government’s response to the drought ; views on the seriousness of the state budget situation and suppor t for a rainy day fund; opinions of the 2010 health care reform law, as well the law ’s l o n g-term effect ; assessment s of crime level s in the state and confidence in local government ’s handling of the transfer of state prisoners to local jails ; suppor t for same- sex marriage and legalizing marijuana; perceptions of major par ties ; and Californians’ sources of news about politics and elections .  Time trends, national comparisons, and the extent to which Californians may differ in their perceptions, attitudes, and preferences regarding state and federal government based on political par ty affiliation, likelihood of voting, region of residence, race/ethnicity, and other demographics. This repor t may be downloaded free of charge from our website ( www.ppic.org). If you have questions about the sur vey, please contact sur vey@ppic.org . Tr y our PPIC Statewide Sur vey interactive tools online at www.ppic.org/main/sur vAdvancedSearch.asp. October 2014 Californians and Their Government 2 PPIC Statewide Survey CONTACT Linda Strean 415-291-4412 NEWS RELEASE EMBARGOED: Do not publish or broadcast until 9:00 p.m. PDT on Wednesday , October 22, 2014. Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: http://www.ppic.org/main/pressreleaseindex.asp PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT Most Favor Water Bo nd, Rainy Day Fund Gains Ground as Brown Keeps Lead MAJORITY SUPPORT FOR CHANGE IN CRIME SENTENCE S—HEALTH INSURANCE MEASURE LAGS SAN FRANCISCO, October 22 , 2014 —Jerry Brown maintains his strong lead among likely voters in the governor’s race against Neel Kashkari. Among two statewide ballot measures that Brown is campaigning for, Proposition 1 —the $7.5 billion water bond —continues t o have majority support and Proposition 2 — the “rainy day fund” —has gained ground since September, with about half of likely voters in favor today. A majority continue to favor Proposition 47, the measure to reduce sentences for some drug and property offenses. Support for Proposition 45 —which would give the state insurance commissioner authority over health insurance rates —has declined since last month and continues to fall short of a majority. These are among the key findings of a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), with support from The James Irvine Foundation. “The state propositions may end up driving voters to the polls who would otherwise sit out this midterm electi on in California,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO. “ Many likely voters say the election outcomes on the ballot measures dealing with water, the state budget, health care, and criminal sentencing are important to them.” Brown is ahead of Kas hkari, 52 to 36 percent —a 16 point lead . By comparison, Brown led by 19 points in July and 21 points in September . Among likely voters, 83 percent of Democrats support Brown and 71 percent of Republicans favor Kashkari. Independents are divided (44 % Brown , 40% Kashkari). Brown’s overall job approval rating is at 54 percent among likely voters. His record -high job approval rating is 60 percent, reached in January this year. About half of likely voters (52%) are satisfied with their choice of candidates. Dem ocrats (66%) and independents (54%) are far more likely to be satisfied than Republicans (36%). About half of likely voters say they are following news about the candidates very closely (18%) or fairly closely (34%) . A ttention to the news was higher in Oct ober 2006, the last gubernatorial election with an incumbent (19% very closely, 55% fairly closely). Weeks before Election Day, California’s likely voters are more upbeat than they were four years ago. While less than half say the state is going in the r ight direction (40%), just 12 percent expressed this view four years ago. And likely voters are twice as likely today to say the state will have good times economically in the next year (42%) than they were in 2010 (20%). October 2014 Californians and Their Government 3 PPIC Statewide Survey FOLLOWING THE NEWS OF DROUGHT CLOS ELY, MOST FAVOR PROPOSITION 1 When read the ballot title and label for Proposition 1, 56 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 32 percent no, and 12 percent don’t know. Most Democrats (68%) and independents (56%) favor the measure, which would fund water quality, supply, treatment, and storage projects. Republicans are evenly divided (43% yes, 43% no). Asked how important the outcome of the vote on Proposition 1 is to them, 54 percent of likely voters say it is very important and 33 percent say somewhat important. More than half of both supporters and opponents of Proposition 1 consider the outcome very important. Californians express support for the water bond as the state struggles with a severe drought. A vast majority of likely voters say th ey are following news about the drought either very closely (62%) or fairly closely (30%) —a far greater share than are following news about the gubernatorial candidates. Asked to name the most important issue facing Californians, likely voters today are now about as likely to name water and drought (28%) as jobs and the economy (30%). Four years ago, 59 percent named jobs and the economy as the top issue. An overwhelming majority (72%) say the supply of water is a big problem in their part of California. Those living in inland ar eas (74%) and coastal areas (72%) are equally likely to say water supply is a big problem. How do likely voters feel about gove rnment response to the drought? A solid majority (62%) say state and local governments are not doing en ough, while 28 percent say governments are doing the right amount and 4 percent say governments are doing too much. “Majorities across the major state regions say that water supply is a big problem in their part of California and that their state and local government is not doing enough about this issue,” Baldassare said. “Whatever the outcome in November, voters will want more action on water and the drought next year.” HALF OF LIKELY VOTER S SUPPORT PROPOSITION 2 Proposition 2 would establish a budget stabilization account, or rainy day fund, that would include a separate reserve for public schools. Today, 49 percent of likely voters would vote yes on the measure, 34 percent would vote no, and 17 percent are undecided. Support for Proposition 2 has incr eased 6 points since September (43% yes, 33% no, 24% undecided) . About half of Democrats (53%), Republicans (49%), and independents (49%) favor the proposition. A third (33%) of likely voters say the outcome on this measure is very important. The fiscal r eform concept behind Proposition 2— increasing the size of the rainy day fund and requiring that the state deposit above -average revenues into it —has majority support among likely voters (55%) today. In previous surveys, the general idea of increasing the r ainy day fund has had higher support (76% May 2010, 71% January 2011, 69% May 2011, 70% December 2012, 70% January 2014). A majority of likely voters (62%) today say the state’s budget situation is a big problem, but this is down significantly from two ye ars ago (80%) and four years ago (90%). PROPOSITION 45 FALTE RING Proposition 45 would require the insurance commissioner’s approval for changes to charges associated with health insurance. It has the support of 39 percent of likely voters, down 9 points from September (48%) . Today, 46 percent would vote no and 15 percent are uncertain (38% no, 14% uncertain in September). Just over half (53%) say the outcome of Proposition 45 is very important to them. California likely voters continue to be divided over the health care reform law itself (46% generally favorable, 46% unfavorable). Asked how much difference the law will make in the long run, they are split: 35 percent say it won’t make much difference, 33 percent say it will be a bad thing for them and thei r families, and 29 percent say it will be a good thing. October 2014 Californians and Their Government 4 PPIC Statewide Survey PROPOSITION 47 SUPPORT HOLDS STEADY Proposition 47 requires a misdemeanor sentence —rather than a felony —for certain drug and property offen ses . It does not apply to registered sex offenders or offenders with a prior conviction for serious or violent crimes. A majority of likely voters (59%) would vote yes on the measure, 29 percent would vote no, and 12 percent don’t know. Findings were similar in September ( 62 % yes, 2 5% no, 13% uncertain). Today, solid majorities of Democrats (67%) and independents (65%) would vote yes, while Republicans are more divided (48% yes, 40% no). Half of likely voters (49%) say the outcome of the vote on the proposition is very important. Just 2 percent of likely vote rs name crime, drugs, and gangs as the most important issue facing the state. However, an overwhelming majority say that crime is a big problem ( 54%) or somewhat of a problem (3 3%) in California . Under the state’s corrections realignment policy, local gov ernments have taken on responsibility for some of the state’s lower -risk inmates. However, less than half of likely voters are very confident (13%) or somewhat confident (33%) in their local government’s ability to take on these new tasks. LEGISLATURE’S RATING UP, OBAMA AT RE CORD LOW, CONGRESS I S LOWER Slightly more than a third of likely voters (37%) approve of the way the California Legislature is handling its job —up from 10 percent four years ago. They give a similar rating to their own assembly and stat e senate representatives (38%). This, too, is an improvement over 2010, when 30 percent approved of their own legislative representatives. Asked a general question about party preference, 48 percent of likely voters say they would vote for the Democratic c andidate for assembly in their district if the election were held today and 40 percent say they would vote for the Republican candidate. President Obama has a record -low 44 percent job approval rating among California likely voters, and they continue to disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job (16% approve, 79% disapprove). They give their own representative in the U.S. House a much higher rating of 47 percent. If the election were held today, 48 percent of likely voters would vote for t he Democratic candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in their district and 41 percent would vote for the Republican. California likely voters are more likely to have a favorable impression of the Democratic Party (44% favorable, 50% unfavorable) than the Republican Party (30% favorable, 64% unfavorable). But that does not mean they are satisfied. Favorability for both parties has declined since October 2012, when 53 percent had a favorable impression of the Democratic Party and 38 percent had a fa vorable impression of the Republican Party. Today, a solid majority (63%) say that both parties do such a poor job representing the American people that a third party is needed. The share of likely voters expressing this view has increased 11 points since October 2012 (52%). AN ‘ENTHUSIASM GAP’ THIS ELECTION YEAR How does all of this translate into likely voters’ level of enthusiasm for voting in November? While 40 percent say they are more enthusiastic than in previous elections, a similar share (42%) say they are less enthusiastic. Larger shares of likely voters said they were more enthusiastic about voting in the last gubernatorial election (53% October 2010) and in the last presidential election (61% October 2012). “California likely voters are signaling an enthusiasm gap that cuts across party lines,” Baldassare said. “ The potential for another low turnout election is troubling for California.” October 2014 Californians and Their Government 5 NOVEMBER 2014 ELECTION KEY FINDINGS  In the closing weeks of the governor’s race, incumbent Jerry Brown has a 16 point lead over challenger Neel Kashkari. (page 7 )  Attention to news about gubernatorial candidates and enthusiasm about v oting are both lower than in previous years; Democrats are far more satisfied than Republicans with their choice of gubernatorial candidates. (page 7 )  Asked which party’s candidate they would prefer in races for the California State Assembly and the U.S. House of Representatives , voters responded strongly along party lines . (page 8)  Fifty -six percent of likely voters would vote in favor of Proposition 1, which authorizes $7.5 billion for water quality, supply, treatment, and storage projects. More than half view the outcome of the vote as very important. (page 9 )  Forty -nine percent of likely voters (up 6 points from September) would vote yes on Proposition 2, which would establish a budget stabilization account ; 33 percent view the outcome as very important. ( page 10 )  Thirty -nine percent of likely voters (down 9 points from September), would vote yes on Proposition 45, which would require approval for changes to health insurance rates. About h alf consider the outcome of Proposition 45 very important. (page 11 )  On Proposition 47, 59 percent of likely voters would vote yes (down 3 points since September). This measure reduces sentences for certain drug and property offences. Forty -nine percent consider the outcome as very important. (page 12 ) 48 62 39 59 0 20 40 60 80 Prop 45: HealthcareInsurance, RateChanges Prop 47: CriminalSentences,Misdemeanor Penalties Percent likely voters September October Percent Supporting Propositions 45 and 47 58 43 56 49 0 20 40 60 80 Prop 1: Water Bond,Funding for WaterQuality, Supply,Treatment, andStorage Projects Prop 2: State Budget,Budget StabilizationAccount Percent likely voters September October Percent SupportingPropositions 1 and 2 525452 333336 424 11118 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 July September October Percent likely voters Jerry Brown Neel Kashkari Would not vote (volunteered) Don't know 2014 Gubernatorial Election October 2014 Californians and Their Government 6 PPIC Statewide S urvey GUBERNATORIAL ELECTI ON With just weeks remaining in the gubernatorial race, about half likely voters are either very (18%) or fairly ( 34 %) closely following news about the candidates. Attention to news was higher in October 2006, the most recent election that involved an incumbent (19% very, 55% fairly) . Attention to news is far l ower today than it was in October 2010 (39% very, 50% fairly). Incumbent Jerry Brown , a Democrat, has a 16 point lead over Republican Neel Kashkari (5 2% to 36 %) and he held a 21 point lead in September (54% to 33%) and a 19 point lead in July (52% to 33%) . Today, 83 percent of Democrats support Brown and 71 percent of Republicans support Kashkari. Similar shares of independents would vote for Brown (44 %) or Kashkari (40%) and 13 percent are still unsure. Brown has the support of at least half of likely vot ers in the San Francisco Bay Area (61%), Los Angeles (55%) , and the Central Valley (50 %). Kashkari has majority suppo rt only in Orange/San Diego (51%). Likely voters in the Inland Empire are divided (41% Brown, 44% Kashkari). M en and women are equally likely (52% each ) and Latinos (73 %) are far more likely than whites (44%) to support Brown. “If the November 4th election for governor were being held today, would you vote for Jerry Brown, a Democrat, or Neel Kashkari, a Republican?” Likely voters only Jerry Brown, a Democrat Neel Kashkari, a Republican Would not vote for governor (volunteered) Don’t know All likely voters 52% 36% 4% 8% Party Democrats 83 10 1 6 Republicans 14 71 5 10 Independents 44 40 3 13 Region Central Valley 50 41 1 8 San Francisco Bay Area 61 23 3 12 Los Angeles 55 32 5 8 Orange/San Diego 37 51 7 6 Inland Empire 41 44 3 12 Gender Men 52 38 5 5 Women 52 34 2 12 Race/Ethnicity* Latinos 73 19 1 8 Whites 44 45 4 7 *Sample sizes for Asian and black likely voters are too small for separate analysis . Fifty -two percent of likely voters are satisfied with their choice of candidates for governor, and 37 percent are not satisfied. Satisfaction today is similar to October 2006 (51%) but higher than in October 2010 (42%). Satisfaction is far higher among Democrats ( 66%) and Brown supporters (73%) than among Republicans (36%) and Kashkari (30 %) supporters. Over half of independents (54%) are satisfied . “In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for governor on November 4th?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Gubernatorial vote Dem Rep Ind Jerry Brown Neel Kashkari Satisfied 52% 66% 36% 54% 73% 30% Not satisfied 37 26 47 39 20 55 Don’t know 12 8 17 6 7 15 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 7 PPIC Statewide S urvey CONGRESSIONAL AND LE GISLATIVE ELECTIONS California’s likely voters are about as likely to be less enthusiastic ( 42%) as they are to be more enthusiastic ( 40%) than usual about voting in the November 4th election, while 15 percent say their level of enthusiasm is the same. Likely voters were much more likely to say they were more enthusiastic about voting in both the 2010 gubernatorial election (53% October 2010) and the 2012 presidential election (61% October 2012). Similar shares across parties ( 44% independents, 42% Democrats, 4 1% Republicans, ) express less enthusiasm about voting in this election. Among Kashkari supporters, 41 percent are less enthusiastic , and 38 percent of Brown supporters express less enthusiasm than usual. Women (47%) are more likely than men (3 6%) to express less enthusiasm. In a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey among registered voters nationwide, 44 percent of voters were more enthusiastic, 39 percent were less enthusiasti c, and 16 percent felt the same level of enthusiasm as in previous elections. “Thinking about the November 4th election, are you more enthusiastic about voting than usual, or less enthusiastic?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Race/ Ethnicity Dem Rep Ind Latino s White s More enthusiastic 40% 38% 44% 40% 42% 41% Less enthusiastic 42 42 41 44 37 42 Same/Neither (volunteered) 15 18 13 14 15 14 Don’t know 3 3 2 1 6 2 In races for the U.S. House of Representatives, likely voters prefer Democratic candidates over Republican candidates by 7 points (4 8% to 41%). Findings were similar in October 2006 , when Democratic candidates were preferred over Republican candidates by 11 points (52% to 41%). In a recent ABC News/Washington Post survey , registered voters nationwide were closely divided (46% Democratic candidate, 44% Republican candidate). In California, 84 percent of Democrats and 88 percent of Republicans would vote for their own party’s candidate. Among independents, 41 percent would vote Democratic, 35 percent would vote Republican, and 24 percent are unsure. “If the 2014 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district? ( If other/unsure: As of today, do you lean more toward the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate ?)” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Race/ Ethnicity Dem Rep Ind Latino s White s Republican candidate 41% 9% 88% 35% 17% 52% Democratic candidate 48 84 5 41 76 37 Don’t know 11 7 7 24 8 11 Similarly, if the 2014 election for the California State Assembly were held today, 48 percent of likely voters would vote for the Democratic candidate and 40 percent would vote for the Republican candidate in their district. Voter preferences fall strongly along party lines. Among independents, 40 percent favor the Democrat ic candidate and 35 percent favor the Republican candidate. A strong majority of Latinos ( 72 %) would vote for the Democrat, while half of white likely voters (50% ) would vote for the Republican. More than half of likely voters in the San Francisco Bay Area (57%) and Los Angeles (55%) favor the Democratic candidate; while at least half of like ly voters in Orange/San Diego (58%), the Inland Empire ( 55%), and the Central Valley (50%) prefer the Republican candidate. October 2014 Californians and Their Government 8 PPIC Statewide S urvey PROPOSITION 1 In the midst of a severe drought, California voters will be voting on Proposition 1, a $7.5 billion bond measure to fund water quality, supply, treatment, and storage projects. The measure was removed from previous years’ ballots and scaled down from $11.1 billion. When read the ballot title and label, 56 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 32 percent woul d vote no, and 12 percent are undecided. Findings were similar last month (58% yes, 29% no , 14% unsure). Proposition 1 has majority support among Democrats (68%) and independents (56 %); Republicans are closely divided (43% yes, 43% no). More than half of likely voters in Los Angeles (67%), the Central Valley (58%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (5 7%) support Proposition 1, while residents in Orange/San Diego (43% yes, 45% no) and the Inland Empire (44% yes, 48% no) are divided . Majorities of Latinos ( 62%) and whites (56%) as well as men ( 59 %) and women (54%) support Proposition 1. “Proposition 1 is called the ‘Water Bond. Funding for Water Quality, Supply, Treatment, and Storage Projects.’ If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on Proposi tion 1?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 56% 32% 12% Party Democrats 68 20 12 Republicans 43 43 14 Independents 56 35 9 Region Central Valley 58 30 12 San Francisco Bay Area 57 30 13 Los Angeles 67 21 12 Orange/San Diego 43 45 12 Inland Empire 44 48 8 Income Under $40,000 57 28 14 $40,000 to under $80,000 61 33 5 $80,000 or more 55 31 14 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 27 . Fifty -four percent of likely voters say the outcome of Proposition 1 is very important to them. The belief that the outcome is very important is highest among Democrats (57%), followed by independents (51%) and Republicans (48%) . More than half of s upporters and opponents of Proposition 1 consider the outcome to be very impo rtant. Majorities of Latinos (66%) and whites (51%) as well as men ( 55%) and women (54%) hold this view. Across regions, likely voters in the Central Valley (66%) are the most likely to view the outcome as very important, followed by those in San Francisco Bay Area (55%), the Inland Empire (54%), Los Angeles (50%), and Orange/San Diego (48%). “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 1?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Vote on Proposition 1 Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 54% 57% 48% 51% 57% 53% Somewhat important 33 34 38 33 37 31 Not too important 7 5 10 12 4 13 Not at all important 2 2 1 2 1 3 Don’t know 3 3 4 3 1 1 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 9 PPIC Statewide S urvey PROPOSITION 2 After passing Proposition 30 two years ago and with the state budget situation continuing to improve, voters will decide whether to require annual transfer of state general fund revenues to establish a budget stabilization account, or rainy day fund , to be used in repaying state debts and emergencies or budget deficits . Proposition 2 is a replacement for another rainy day fund amendment that was originally slated for the 2012 ballot. When read the ballot title and label, 49 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 34 percent would vote no, and 17 percent are undecided. Support is up 6 points from last month, when 4 3 percent of likely voters said they would vote yes, 33 percent said they would vote no, and 24 percent were unsure. Pluralities ac ross parties say they would vote yes. About half of likely voters in the Central Valley (51%), Los Angeles (50%), and Orange/San Diego (50%) would vote yes, while fewer than half in the Inland Empire (45%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (44%) would do so . About half of whites (5 0% , 32% no ) would vote yes, while Latinos are divided (44% yes, 39% no). Half of men ( 50%) and women ( 48%) would vote yes. Pluralities across education and income groups would vote yes on Proposition 2. “Proposition 2 is called the ‘State Budget. Budget Stabilization Account Legislative Constitutional Amendment.’ If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on Proposition 2?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 49% 34% 17% Party Democrats 53 30 16 Republicans 49 34 17 Independents 49 37 14 Region Central Valley 51 30 19 San Francisco Bay Area 44 36 20 Los Angeles 50 32 18 Orange/San Diego 50 38 12 Inland Empire 45 42 12 Income Under $40,000 52 33 15 $40,000 to under $80,000 55 33 12 $80,000 or more 45 33 22 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 27 . One in three likely voters ( 33%) say the outcome of Proposition 2 is very important to them. Independents (36%) are the most likely to hold this view , followed by Republicans (32%) and Democrats (29%). F ewer than f our in 10 of both supporters and opponents see the outcome as very important, but opponents are more likely than supporters to say it is not too or not at all important. “How important to you is the outco me of the vote on Proposition 2?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Vote on Proposition 2 Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 33% 29% 32% 36% 36% 33% Somewhat important 44 48 44 42 54 36 Not too important 13 13 12 16 6 24 Not at all important 4 4 5 1 3 5 Don’t know 7 6 7 5 1 1 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 10 PPIC Statewide S urvey PROPOSITION 45 Proposition 45 would require the insurance commissioner’s approval for changes to health insurance rates. When read the ballot title and label, 39 percent of likely voters would vote yes, 46 percent would vote no, and 15 percent are unsure. Support has declined 9 points since September, when 48 percent of likely voters said they would vote yes, 38 percent said they would vote no, and 14 percent were unsure. Democrats (4 8%) and independents ( 46 %) are more likely than Republicans (25%) to say they would vote yes. Support among likely voters is highest in the San Francisco Bay Area (44%) and Los Angeles (44%), followed by the Inland Empire (36%), the Central Valley (33%), and Orange/San Diego (29%). Latino likely voters (46 %) are much more likely than whites (34%) to say they would vote yes. Fewer than half of likely voters across education and income groups would vote yes on Proposition 45. “Proposition 45 is called the ‘Healthcare Insurance. Rate Changes. Initiative Statute.’ If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on Proposition 45?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 39% 46% 15% Party Democrats 48 38 15 Republicans 25 61 14 Independents 46 43 11 Region Central Valley 33 49 18 San Francisco Bay Area 44 39 17 Los Angeles 44 42 14 Orange/San Diego 29 59 12 Inland Empire 36 56 8 Income Under $40,000 48 35 16 $40,000 to under $80,000 41 53 6 $80,000 or more 34 51 15 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 28. Slightly more than half of likely voters ( 53%) say the outcome of Proposition 45 is very important to them. In September, 42 percent said the outcome was very important. Republicans (5 7%) and Democrats (53 %) are more likely than independents (43 %) to hold this view. More than half of those who favor (54%) and those who oppose (58%) Proposition 45 th ink the outcome of the vote is very important. “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 45?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Vote on Proposition 45 Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 53% 53% 57% 43% 54% 58% Somewhat important 32 38 26 40 38 32 Not too important 7 5 5 13 5 7 Not at all important 3 2 5 2 2 3 Don’t know 5 3 7 3 – 1 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 11 PPIC Statewide S urvey PROPOSITION 47 Proposition 47 requires misdemeanor instead of felony sentences for certain drug and property offenses but is inapplicable to registered sex offenders and persons with prior conviction s for serious or violent crimes. When read the ballot title and label, 5 9 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 29 percent would vote no, and 1 2 percent are unsure. Support was similar in September, when 62 percent of likely voters said they would vote yes, 25 percent said they would vote no, and 13 percent were unsure. Two in three Democrats (67 %) and independents ( 65%) say they would vote yes, while Republicans are more divided ( 48% yes, 40 % no). At least half of likely voters across regions would vote yes (64% San Francisco Bay Area, 59 % Los Angeles, 57% Orange/San Diego, 56% Inland Empire, 51% Central Valley) . White likely voters ( 60%) are somewhat more likely than Latinos ( 52%) to say they would vote yes. Majorities across i ncome groups would vote yes ; support is slightly higher among likely voters with at least some college (61%) than among those with a high school degree or less (53%) . “Proposition 47 is called the ‘Criminal Sentences. Misdemeanor Penalties. Initiative Statute.’ If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on Proposition 47?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 59% 29% 12% Party Democrats 67 22 11 Republicans 48 40 12 Independents 65 24 12 Region Central Valley 51 34 16 San Francisco Bay Area 64 23 13 Los Angeles 59 30 12 Orange/San Diego 57 30 14 Inland Empire 56 34 10 Income Under $40,000 64 26 10 $40,000 to under $80,000 60 30 10 $80,000 or more 57 31 11 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 28. Half of likely voters (4 9%) say the outcome of the vote on Proposition 47 is very important. In September, 42 percent said the outcome was very important. Half of Democrats and independents hold this view, as do nearly half of Republicans . Fifty -five percent of those who would vote yes and 48 percent of those who would vote no say the outcome is very important. “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 47?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Vote on Proposition 47 Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 49% 50% 46% 50% 55% 48% Somewhat important 35 34 36 35 36 34 Not too important 8 10 7 10 8 9 Not at all important 3 2 4 2 1 8 Don’t know 5 4 7 2 – 1 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 12 STATE AND NATIONAL ISSUES KEY FINDINGS  Californians mention jobs and the economy, and water and drought as the top issues facing the state. ( page 14)  Overall mood and economic outlook for the state has improved since the last gubernatorial election. (page 14 )  Leading up to the general election, 50 percent of adults and 54 percent of likely voters approve of Governor Brown. Approval of the legislature is at 41 percent; 43 percent of Californians approve of their own state le gislators. (page 15 )  President Obama’s approval remains near his record low. Despite low ratings for the U.S. Congress (2 4%), 48 percent of Californians approve of their own representative in the U.S. House of Representatives. (page 16 )  The share saying regional water supply is a big problem is at a record high (68%). Most Californians are following news about the current drought. Nearly s ix in 10 say state and local governments are not doing enough to respond to the drought. (page 17 )  A majority of Californians view the state budget situation as a big problem and favor the idea of a rainy day fund. (page 18 )  Half of Californians view crim e as a big problem in the state, with Central Valley residents being the most likely to hold this view. (page 19)  Californians continue to hold mixed views about the 2010 health care reform law. ( page 20 )  Favorable impressions of both major parties have declined since the last presidential election. (page 21 ) 42 58 50 28 4241 0 20 40 60 80 Percent all adults Governor Brown California Legislature Approval Ratings of State Elected Officials Oct 2012Jan 2014 Oct 2014 63 5349 262624 0 20 40 60 80 Percent all adults President Obama U.S. Congress Approval Ratings of FederalElected Officials Oct 2012Jan 2014 Oct 2014 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 13 PPIC Statewide S urvey OVERALL MOOD Californians today are as likely to say that the most important issue facing the state today is jobs/the economy (29%) as they are to say water /drought (26 %). Four years ago, 59 percent of adults named jobs /the economy. Trends are similar today for likely voters ( 30% jobs, 28% water). Across regions, w ater /drought is the top issue in the Central Valley (38 %) and the San Francisco Bay Area (31%), while fewer mention this issue in Orange/San Diego (20%), Los Angeles ( 18%), and the Inland Empire ( 14%). “First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today?” Top three issues mentioned All adults Region Likely voters Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Jobs, economy 29% 23 % 20% 35% 30% 38% 30 % Water, drought 26 38 31 18 20 14 28 Education, schools, teachers 6 3 9 8 6 3 5 At least four in 10 adults (47 %) and likely voters (4 0%) say things in California are generally going in the right direction. Four years ago, 16 percent of adults and 12 percent of likely voters held this view. Today, Democrats ( 61%) say right direction more often than independents (43 %) or Republicans (20%) do . San Francisco Bay Area residents ( 59%) are more likely to hold this view than those living elsewhere ( 53 % Orange/San Diego, 4 7% Los Angeles, 46% Inland Empire, 28% Central Valley). “Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Right direction 47% 61 % 20 % 43 % 40 % Wrong direction 46 30 74 52 54 Don’t know 7 9 6 5 6 Ab out four in 10 adults (4 5%) and likely voters ( 42%) say the state will have good times financially in the next 12 months. Four years ago, 25 percent of adults and 20 percent of likely voters held this view. Today, San Francisco Bay Area (58 %) residents are more likely to expect good economic times than residents in Los Angeles (47 %), the Inland Empire (42%), Orang e/San Diego (40%), and the Central Valley (3 5%) . Democrats ( 60%) express more economic optimism than independents (37%) and Republicans (2 5%). “Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?” All adults Region Likely voters Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Good times 45% 35 % 58% 47% 40% 42% 42 % Bad times 44 58 28 42 48 50 47 Don’t know 11 8 14 11 12 7 11 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 14 PPIC Statewide S urvey APPROVAL OF STATE ELECTED OFFICIALS Within a month of the November 4 election, 5 0 percent of adults and 5 4 percent of likely voters approve of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor. Two years ago, 42 percent of adults and 45 percent of likely voters approved of Governor Brown’s job performance. Today, the governor’s approval rating is far hi gher among Democrats (7 2%) than among independents ( 49%) or Republicans ( 26%). His approval rating is somewhat higher in the San Francisco Bay Area ( 59%) and Los Angeles (54%) than in the Central Valley (48%), the Inland Empire (41%), and Orange/San Diego (41 %). Approval is similar among men (5 2%) and women ( 48%); pluralities across age, education, income, and racial/ethnic groups approve of his job performance. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Approve 50% 72 % 26 % 49 % 54 % Disapprove 28 16 63 32 37 Don’t know 22 12 12 19 9 Forty -one percent of California adults and 37 percent of likely voters approve of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job. Two years ago, 28 percent of adults and 21 percent of likely voters approved of its performance. Four years ago, 16 percent of adults and 10 percent of likely voters approved of its job performance. Today, 54 percent of Democrats express approval, compared to 34 percent of independents and 14 percent of Republicans. Residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (50%) are the mostly likely to approve of the legislatur e, followed by Los Angeles (4 5%), Orange/San Diego ( 38 %), the Inland Empire ( 33%), and the Central Valley (27%) . Approval is similar among men ( 42%) and women ( 40%). Whites (2 9%) and blacks (39 %) express lower approval than Latinos (53 %). Approval of the legislature tend s to decline as income levels rise and is lower among homeowners than renters. Forty -three percent of adults and 38 percent of likely voters approve of the job of their own state legislators. These approval ratings were at 36 percent for adults and 35 percent for likely voters in September 2012, and at 31 percent for adults and 30 percent for likely voters in September 2010. Today, Democrats (5 2%) give higher approval ratings to their state legislators than do independents ( 42 %) or Republicans ( 24%). San Francisco Bay Area (50%) residents are the most likely to approve , followed by Los Angeles (45%), Orange/San Diego (43%), Central Valley (37%), and the Inland Empire (36%). Approval is identical among men and women (43 % each), while homeowners (4 0%) are slightly less likely than renters (4 8%) to hold this view . Approval is lower among blacks (36%) and whites (38%) than among Latinos (50%). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that…?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind the California Legislature is handling its job Approve 41% 54 % 14 % 34 % 37 % Disapprove 42 31 75 51 51 Don ’t know 17 16 11 15 13 the state legislators representing your assembly and senate districts are doing at this time Approve 43 52 24 42 38 Disapprove 39 34 62 45 50 Don ’t know 18 14 14 13 12 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 15 PPIC Statewide S urvey APPROVAL OF FEDERAL ELECTED OFFICIALS President Obama’s job approval rating remains near his record low. N early half (4 9%) of Californians say they approve of the way he is handling his job, while a similar proportion disapprove (46 %). Nationally, the president’s job approval among all adults stands at 40 percent (51% disapprove) in a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll. Likely voters in California are more likely to disapprove (5 3%) than to approve (4 4%). Partisan differences are notable, with nearly three in four Democrats (73 %) approving of President Obama and nine in 10 Republicans ( 90%) disapproving . Independents are more divided , with 4 4 percent approving and about half (5 1%) disapproving . M ajorities of blacks (80%) and Latinos (55 %) approve of the job the president is doing, but 37 percent of whites do so. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president of the United States?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Approve 49% 73 % 10 % 44 % 44 % Disapprove 46 22 90 51 53 Don’t know 5 5 1 5 3 A strong majority ( 68%) of Californians continue to disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job (2 4% approve). Among adults nationwide, Congress has an even lower approval rating , with only 15 percent saying they approve and 78 percent saying they disapprove in a recent CBS News poll. Eight in 10 California likely voters (79%) disapprove of the way the U .S. Congress is handling its job. Strong majorities of Democrats (7 2%), Republicans (8 0%) , and independents ( 74%) say they disapprove of the way the Congress is handling its job. Despite low approval of Congress overall , nearly half of Californians (48%) approve of the way their own representative is handling his or her job in the U.S. House of Representatives ( 39% disapprove ). These results are similar to those in May (48% approve, 36% disapprove). Today, nearly half of likely voters (4 7%) approve of thei r own representative ( 44 % disapprove ). Democrats (57 %) are more likely to approve of their own representative than are independents (44%) or Republicans (38%). Residents in the San Francisco Bay Area ( 55%) are the most likely to approve of their representative, followed by those in Los Angeles (5 1%) , Inland Empire (48%), Orange/San Diego (46%), and the Central Valley (37%). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way…?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind the U.S. Congress is handling its job Approve 24% 22 % 16 % 19 % 16 % Disapprove 68 72 80 74 79 Don ’t know 8 5 5 7 5 your own representative to the U.S. House of Representatives is handling his or her job Approve 48 57 38 44 47 Disapprove 39 35 52 44 44 Don ’t know 14 8 10 11 9 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 16 PPIC Statewide S urvey WATER POLICY At a time when water and the drought are of great concern, overwhelming majorities of Californians say the supply of water is a big problem ( 68%). This level of concern is at an all-time high this year ( 55% March, 59% May , 54% July, and 65% September). Those living in California’s inland areas (72%) are slightly more likely than those living in coastal areas ( 66%) to say water supply is a big problem. Moreover, r esidents in the Central Valley (7 9%), California’s primary agricultural region, are the most likely to say that the supply of water in their area is big problem , followed by those in Orange/San Diego (70%), Los Angeles (65%), the San Francisco Bay Area ( 65%), and the Inland Empire (63%). Across racial/ethnic groups, whites (76%) are more likely than blacks (68%) or Latinos (64 %) to say water supply is a big problem . Women (72 %) are somewhat more likely than men (64%) to hold this view. The perception that the supply of water is a big problem is more widely held among older, more educated, and more affluent Californians than others. “Would you say that the supply of water is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem in your part of California?” All adults Region Inland/Coastal Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Inland Coastal Big problem 68% 79 % 65 % 65 % 70 % 63 % 72 % 66 % Somewhat of a problem 17 11 22 17 18 18 14 19 Not much of a problem 13 7 13 17 12 17 12 14 Don’t know 1 3 1 1 – 2 2 1 A vast majority of Californians are following the news about the drought either very closely (50 %) or fairly closely (32%) ; far f ewer say not too closely (1 3%) or not at all closely ( 4%). With reports that drought conditions are not expected to abate during the upcoming winter, do Californians think their state and local governments are doing enough to respond to current conditions? A solid majority of Californians (5 7%) think their state and local governments are not doing enough, a small minority (5%) say that they are doing too much, and three in 10 (3 1%) say they are doing the right amount. Residents of the Central Valley and Orange/San Diego (62% each ) are slightly more li kely than residents in Los Angeles (56%), the Inland Empire (55%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (5 3%) to say governments are not doing enough. Across racial/ethnic groups, blacks (75%) are much more likely to hold this view than whites (60%) and Latinos (54%). The opinion that governments are not doing enough is higher among Californians age 18 to 34 (62 %) than it is among those age 35 to 54 (53%) or those older than 55 (5 8%). Among those who consider their regional water supply to be a big problem, 62 percent say their state and local government s are not doing enough. “Overall, do you think that the state and local governments are doing too much, the right amount, or not enough to respond to the current drought in California?” All adults Region Inland/Coastal Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Inland Coastal Too much 5% 4 % 6 % 6 % 5 % 5 % 4 % 6 % The right amount 31 23 36 32 27 34 28 32 Not enough 57 62 53 56 62 55 59 57 Don’t know 7 11 5 6 6 6 9 6 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 17 PPIC Statewide S urvey STATE BUDGET SITUATI ON A majority of Californians (54%) and likely voters ( 62%) say that the state budget situation in California is a big problem today. Two years ago, 70 percent of adults and 80 percent of likely voters said that the state budget situation was a big problem. This view was even more widespread in September 2010 (80% adults, 90% likely voters). Today, R epublicans (76%) are much more likely than independents ( 65%) or Democrats (48 %) to say the state budget situation is a big problem. San Francisco Bay Area (46 %) residents are less likely to think that it is a big problem than residents elsewhere (55 % Orange/San Diego, 55 % Los Angeles, 56% Inland Empire, 62% Central Valley). At least half of men (50 %) and women (57 %), as well as homeowners (57 %) and renters (50%), regard the state budget situation as a big problem. Whites (60%) are more likely than blacks (53%) or Latinos (48%) to hold this view. About three in four of those who expect bad times financially in the next 12 months (73%), and who perceive that the state is currently going in the wrong direction (7 5%), say that the state budget situation in California is a big problem today. “Do you think the state budget situation in California—that is, the balance between government spending and revenues—is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Big problem 54% 48 % 76 % 65 % 62 % Somewhat of a problem 33 42 17 29 29 Not a problem 7 7 4 4 6 Don’t know 6 3 3 2 3 The fiscal reform concept behind Proposition 2— increasing the size of the state’s rainy day fund and requiring above -average revenues to be deposited into it —has majority support among all adults (5 6%) and likely voters (5 5%). This concept has been supported by at least 70 percent of Californians since we first asked this question in May 2010 (74% May 2010, 73% January 2011, 70% May 2011, 72% December 2012, and 73% January 2014). Today, majorities of Democrats (5 8%) and independents (5 2%) and 49 percent of Republicans say they favor it. At least half across age, education, income, racial/ethnic , and regional groups are in favor of this proposal. Of those who say the state budget situation is a big problem today, 52 percent support this idea. Among the likely voters who say they will vote for Proposition 2, 7 0 percent are in favor of increasing the size of the rainy day fund. “Fiscal reforms have been proposed to address the structural issues in the state budget and local budget issues. Do you favor or oppose increasing the size of the state's rainy day fund and requiring above- average revenues to be deposited into it for use during economic downturns?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Favor 56% 58 % 49 % 52 % 55 % Oppose 29 30 33 33 30 Don’t know 15 12 17 15 15 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 18 PPIC Statewide S urvey PUBLIC SAFETY Although just 4 percent of C alifornians n ame crime, d rugs, and gangs a s the most important i ssue facing the state, n ine in 10 say t hat crime is a big problem ( 50%) or s omewhat of a problem (38%) i n California today. M ore Californians s aid crime was a b ig problem the f irst time w e asked t his question in May 19 98 (6 6% big pr oblem, 2 8% somewhat o f a problem). R esidents in the Central V alley (6 5%) are t he most l ikely t o view crime as a big problem , followed by those in th e Inland Empire (55%) , Los A ngeles (5 1%), the San Francisco Bay A rea (43%), and Orange/San Diego (3 8%). A cross p arties, R epublicans (63%) are more likel y than Democrats ( 52%) o r independents ( 46%) to s ay it is a big pr oblem. Blacks (62%) are more likely than Latinos (52%) or whites (53% ) to hold this view. Women (53% ) are slightly more likely than men (46% ) to hold this view. Younger Californians (3 8% age 18 to 34) are much less likely than older Californians (54% age 35 to 54; 58% age 55 and older) to view crime as a big problem. College graduates ( 38%) are much less likely than those with some college (54% ) or those with a high school education or less (54%) to hold this view. The perception of crime as a big problem is higher among those with annual household incomes of $40,000 or less (53% ) than among those with higher incomes (46% $40,000 to $ 80,000; 45% $80,000 or more). “In your opinion, how much of a problem is crime in California today? Is it a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem?” All adults Region Likely voters Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Big problem 50% 65% 43% 51% 38% 55% 54% Somewhat of a problem 38 27 41 38 49 36 33 Not much of a problem 11 7 14 11 13 9 12 Don’t know 1 1 1 – 1 – 1 C orrection s realignment began in October 2011 when some of the state’s lower -risk inmates were shifted from state prisons to county jails. How much confidence do Californians have in their local government’s ability to take on the responsibilities of corrections real ignment? About half of Californians are very (12 %) or somewhat confident (36 %) in their local government ’s ability to hand le this responsibility, while about half say they are not too ( 26%) or not at all confident (22 %). This confidence level was similar in September 2013 (40%), but was higher in September 2011 (48%), December 2011 (53%), January 2012 (50%), and January 2013 (49%). Confidence is somewhat higher in the Inland Empire (55%), Orange/San Diego ( 55%), and the San Francisco Bay Area ( 55%) than in Los Angeles (4 7%) and the Central Valley (37 %). Confidence is higher among Democrats ( 54%) and independents (50%) than among or Republicans (3 7%). “As you may know, state funding is being provided to shift some of the lower- risk inmates from state prisons to county jails to reduce prison overcrowding and lower state costs. How confident are you that your local government is able to take on this responsibility?” All adults Region Likely voters Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Very confident 12% 9% 11% 13% 13% 16% 13% Somewhat confident 36 28 44 34 42 39 33 Not too confident 26 33 24 27 23 17 29 Not at all confident 22 26 18 23 19 26 23 Don’t know 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 19 PPIC Statewide S urvey HEALTH CARE REFORM Californians continue to be closely divided on the federal health care reform law: 4 6 percent have a generally favorable opinion and 44 percent have a generally unfavorable one. Results are similar to those from December 2013, and the Ja nuary, March, May, and September surveys of this year. According to a September Kaiser Family Foundation poll, adults nationally are less likely to hold a favorable view of the health care law than Californians are (35% nationally, 46% California). The par tisan divide persists on this issue : a majority of Democrats (6 8%) say they have a generally favorable view of this law, a majority of Republicans (77 %) say they have a generally unfavorable view . Independents are equally divided (47 % favorable, 47% unfavorable ). Favorable views about the law are higher among college graduates (52%) than among those with some college ( 40%) or a high school education or less (46%). Similarly, residents earning more than $80,000 annually (52 %) are slightly more likely to have a favorable view than residents in lower income brackets (45 % $40,000 to $80,000, and 47 % $40,000 or less). As the second period of enrollment for the Affordable Care Act is set to begin, uninsured Californians are divided in their opinion of the law (47% favorable, 43% unfavorable) , as are those who have health insurance (4 7% favorable, 4 3% unfavorable). “As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it?” All adults Party Have health insurance Dem Rep Ind Yes No Generally favorable 46% 68 % 15 % 47 % 47 % 42 % Generally unfavorable 44 23 77 47 43 47 Don’t know 11 9 9 6 10 11 A plurality of Californians say the health care law will not make much difference (39%) in the long run, while about one in three say it will either be good (29%) or bad (28%) for them and their families. Similarly, among likely voters, 35 percent say it w ill not make much difference, while about one in three says it will either be good (29%) or bad (33 %). Findings were similar in March ( 34% good, 26 % bad, 36 % would not make much difference) . D ifferences exist across political parties : Democrats are far mor e likely (4 6%) than Republicans ( 6%) or independents (23 %) to say it will be good in the long run. Across racial/ethnic groups, blacks (45 %), and Latinos (32%) are more likely than whites (23 %) to hold an optimistic view . Residents in the San Francisco Ba y Area (35%) are the most likely —and those in the Central Valley (20%) are the least likely —to think the law will be good in the long run. In a similar question asked by the Pew Research Center in September among adults nationwide, 27 percent said the over all effect of the health care law over the coming years would be mostly positive, 38 percent said mostly negative, and 33 percent said it would not have much of an effect. “In the long run, do you think the health care law will be good or bad for you and your family, or won’t it make much difference?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Good 29% 46 % 6 % 23 % 29 % Bad 28 12 61 27 33 Won’t make much difference 39 37 31 45 35 Don’t know 4 4 1 5 3 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 20 PPIC Statewide S urvey PARTY PERCEPTIONS Californians are divided in their impressions of the Democratic Party (46% favorable, 4 3% unfavorable), but they are more likely to have an unfavorable view of the Republican Party (2 9% favorable, 59% unfavorable). Favorable impressions of both parties have declined since October 2012, when 58 percent of Californians had a positive view of the Democratic Party and 35 percent had a positive one of the Republican Party. In an October 2014 ABC/Washington Post poll among adults nationwide, at least half had an unfavorable impression of both the Democratic Party (39% favorable, 51% unfavorable) and the Republican Party (33% favorable, 56% unfavorable). Notably, Democrats are much more likely to have a favorable impres sion of the Democratic Party (73%), than Republicans are to have of the Republican Party (5 8%). A strong majority of independents (6 7%) have an unfavorable impression of the Republican Party and about half (5 2%) have an unfavorable impression of the Democr atic Party. While majorities of blacks ( 70%) and Latinos (55%) have a favorable impression of the Democratic Party, whites (3 5%) are less likely to share this view . One in three or fewer Latinos ( 29%) and white s (33 %) have a favorable impression of the Republican Party; even fewer blacks (20%) do so. “Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of…?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind the Democratic Party Favorable 46% 73 % 15 % 32 % 44 % Unfavorable 43 24 79 52 50 Don ’t know 10 3 6 15 6 the Republican Party Favorable 29 16 58 19 30 Unfavorable 59 79 33 67 64 Don ’t know 12 5 9 15 6 When asked if the Republican and Democratic parties do an adequate job representing the American people or whether they do such a poor job that a third party is needed, a majority of Californians (58 %) say there is a need for a third major party. O nly 29 percent of Californians believe that the Democratic and Republican parties are doing an adequate job —a decrease of 1 5 percentage points from October 2012 , when 44 percent said the two major parties did an adequate job. Independents (7 1%, up 1 2 points since October 2012) are much more likely than Republicans (59%) or Democrats (56%) to say that a third party is needed. A majority of Californians across age, gender, education, income, and regional groups believe in the need for a third party. In a September Gallup poll, the share of adults nationwide saying a third party is needed (58% , 35% adequate job) was identical to Californians in our survey today . “In your view, do the Republican and Democratic parties do an adequate job representing the American people, or do they do such a poor job that a third major party is needed?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Adequate job 29% 34 % 25 % 19 % 24 % Third party is needed 58 56 59 71 63 Don’t know 13 10 16 10 13 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 21 REGIONAL MAP October 2014 Californians and Their Government 22 METHODOLOGY The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance from Jui Shrestha , project manager for this survey, Dean Bonner, associate survey director, and survey research associates Renatta DeFever and Lunna Lopes . The Californians and Their Government series is supported with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. The PPIC Statewide Survey invites input, comments, and suggestions from polic y and public opinion experts and from its own advisory committee, but survey methods, questions, and content are determined solely by PPIC’s survey team. Findings in this report are based on a survey of 1,70 4 California adult residents, including 1,106 int erviewed on landline telephones and 598 interviewed on cell phones. Interviews took an average of 19 minutes to complete. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights from October 12–19, 2014. Landline interviews were conducted using a computer -generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible for selection, and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as six times t o increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Cell phone interviews w ere conducted using a computer -generated random sample of cell phone numbers. All cell phone numbers with California area codes were eligible for selection, and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as eight times to increase the likelihood of reaching an eligible respondent. Once a cell phone user was reached, it was verified that this person was age 18 or older, a resident of California, and in a safe place to continue the survey (e.g., not driving). Cell phone respondents were offered a smal l reimbursement to help defray the cost of the call. Cell phone interviews were conducted with adults who have cell phone service only and with those who have both cell phone and landline service in the h ousehold. Live landline and cell phone interviews w ere conducted by Abt SRBI, Inc., in English and Spanish, according to respondents’ preferences. Accent on Languages, Inc., translated new survey questions into Spanish. Abt SRBI uses the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2010– 2012 American Community Survey’s (ACS) Pub lic Use Microdata Series for California (with regional coding information from the University of Minnesota’s Integrated Public Use Microdata Series for California) to compare certain demographic characteristics of the survey sample— region, age, gender, race/ethnicity, and education —with the characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the ACS figures. To estimate landline and cell phone service in California, Abt SRBI used 2012 state -level estimates released by the National Center for Health Statistics —which used data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the ACS —and 2013 estimates for the West Census Region in the latest NHIS report. The estimates for California were then compared against landl ine and cell phone service reported in this survey. We also used voter registration data from the California Secretary of State to compare the party registration of registered voters in our sample to party registration statewide. The landline and cell phone samples were then integrated using a frame integration weight, while sample balancing adjusted for differences across regional, age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, telephone service, and party registration groups. October 2014 Californians and Their Government 23 PPIC Statewide Survey The sampling error, taking design effects from weighting into consideration, is ±3. 5 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total unweighted sample of 1,704 adults. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 3. 5 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for unweighted subgroups is larger: for the 1,281 registered voters, the sampling error is ±4. 1 percent; for the 976 likely voters, it is ±4.6 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to w hich surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. We present results for five geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “ Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, “Inland Empire” refers to Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, and “Orange/San Diego” refers to Orange and San Diego Counties. Residents of other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, likely voters, and primary likely voters, but sample sizes for these less populous areas are not large enough to report separately. In several places, we refer to coas tal and inland counties. The “ coastal” region refers to the counties along the California coast from Del Norte County to San Diego County and includes all the San Francisco Bay Area counties. All other counties are included in the “inland” region. We present specific results for non- Hispanic whites and also for Latinos, who account for about a third of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest -growing voter groups. We also present results for non -Hispanic blacks, who comprise about 6 percent of the state’s adult population. Results for other racial/ethnic groups —such as Asians and Nat ive Americans—are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, likely voters, but sample sizes are not large enough for separate anal ysis. We compare the opinions of those who report they are registered Democrats, registered Republicans, and decline -to -state or independent voters; the results for those who say they are registered to vote in other parties are not large enough for separat e analysis. We also analyze the responses of likely voters —so designated by their responses to voter registration survey questions, previous election participation, and current interest in politics. The percentages presented in the report tables and in the questionnaire may not add to 100 due to rounding. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey results to those in our earlier surveys and to those in national surveys by ABC News/Washington Post, CBS News , Gallup, Kaiser Family Foundation, NBC News/Wall Street Journal , and the Pew Research Center . A dditional details about our methodology can be found at www.ppic.org/content/other/SurveyMethodology.pdf and are available upon request through surveys@ppic.org . October 2014 Californians and Their Government 24 QUESTIONNAIRE AND RESULTS CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT October 12–19 , 2014 1,704 California Adult Residents: English, Spanish MARGIN OF ERROR ±3. 5% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMP LE PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100 D UE TO ROUNDING 1.First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today? [code, don’t read ] 29% jobs, economy 26 water, drought 6 education , schools, teachers 4 crime, gangs, drugs 4 health care, health reform, Obamacare 4 immigration, illegal immigration 4 state budget, deficit, taxes 3 environment, pollution, global warming 2 government in general 2 housing costs, availability 11 other 5 don’t know 2. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California? 50 % approve 28 disapprove 22 don’t know 3. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of th e wa y that the California Legislature is handling its job ? 41 % ap prove 42 disapprove 17 don’t know 4. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that the state legislators representing your assembly and senate districts ar e do ing at this time? 43 % approve 39 disapprove 18 don’t know 5. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or th e wr ong direction? 47 % right direction 46 wrong direction 7 don’t know 6. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 45 % good times 44 bad times 11 don’t know 7. Next, some people are registered to vot e an d others are not. Are you absolutel y cer tain that you are reg istered to vote in California? 66 % yes [ask q7 a] 34 no [skip to q 8e] O ctober 2014 Californians and Their Government 25 PPIC Statewide Survey 7a. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or are you registered as a decline -to -state or independent voter? 44 % Democrat [ask q 8] 28 Republican [ask q 8a] 5 another party (specify) [ask q9] 22 I ndependent [skip to q8b ] 8. Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 53 % strong 45 not very strong 2 don’t know [skip to q9] 8a. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 53 % strong 44 not very strong 3 don’t know [skip to q9] 8b. Would you join a political party if it was a good reflection of your political views or do you prefer to be unaffiliated with any specific party? 26 % join a political party 69 remain unaffiliated 5 don’t know 8c. And were you previously registered with a major party or have you always been a decline- to-state or independent voter? 35 % previously registered [ask q8d ] 62 always been a decline -to -state or independent voter [skip to q8e] 3 don’t know [skip to q8e ] 8d. And what party were you previously registered with? [code, don’t read ] 56% Republican Party 39 Democratic Party 1 other (specify) 4 don’t know 8e. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republ ican Party or Democratic Party? 24 % Republican Party 45 Democratic Party 22 neither (volunteered) 9 don’t know [questions 9 to 21 reported for likely voters] 9.[likely voters only] If the November 4th el ection for governor were being held today, would you vote for [rotate] (1) Jerry Brown, a De mocrat, [or] (2) Neel Kashkari a Republican? 52 % Jerry Brown, a Democrat 36 Neel Kashkari, a Republican 4 would not vote for governor (volunteered) 8 don’t know 10 . [likely voters only] How closely are you f ollowing news about candid ates for the 2014 governor’s election —very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 18 % very closely 34 f airly closely 34 not too closely 13 not at all closely 1 don’t know 11 . [likely voters only] In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for governor on November 4th? 52 % satisfied 37 not satisfied 12 don’t know October 2014 Californians and Their Government 26 PPIC Statewide Survey 12. If the 2014 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for [ rotate ] (1) (the Republican candidate ) [ or ] (2) (the Democratic candidate) in your district? [ If other/don’t know: “ As of today, do you lean more toward [ read in same order as above] (1) the Republican candidate [ or ] (2) the Democratic candidate? ”] 41% Rep/lean Rep 48 Dem/lean Dem 11 don’t know 13. If the 2014 election for the California State Assembly were being held today, would you vote for [ rotate ] (1) (the Republican candidate ) [ or ] (2) (the Democratic candidate) in your district? [ If other/don’t know: “ As of today, do you lean more toward [ read in same order as above] (1) the Republican candidate [ or ] (2) the Democratic candidate?” ] 40% Rep/lean Rep 48 Dem/lean Dem 1 other (specify) 11 don’t know Next, we have a few questions to ask you about some of the propositions on the November ballot. 14 . [likely voters only] Proposition 1 is called the “Water Bond. Funding for Water Quality, Supply, Treatment, and Storage Projects.” It authorizes $7.5 billion in general obligation bonds for state water supply infrastructure projects, including surface and groundwater storage, ecosystem and watershed protection and restoration, and drinking water protection. Fis cal impact is increased : state bond costs averaging $360 million annually over 40 years and local government savings for water -related projects, likely averaging a couple hundred million dollars annually over the next few decades. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 1? 56% yes 32 no 12 don’t know 15 . [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 1 — is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all impor tant? 54% very important 33 somewhat important 7 not too important 2 not at all important 3 don’t know 16 . [likely voters only] Proposition 2 is called the “State Budget. Budget Stabilization Account . Legislative Constitutional Amendment.” It requires annual transfer of state general fund revenues to budget stabilization account and requires half the revenues be used to repay state debts. It limits use of remaining funds to emergencies or budget deficits. Fiscal impact is long -term state sa vings from faster payment of existing debts and different levels of state budget reserves, depending on the economy and decisions by elected officials as well as smaller local reserves for some school districts. If the election were held today, would you v ote yes or no on Proposition 2? 49% yes 34 no 17 don’t know 1 7 . [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 2 —is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 33% very important 44 somewhat important 13 not too important 4 not at all important 7 don’t know October 2014 Californians and Their Government 27 PPIC Statewide Survey 18 . [likely voters only] Proposition 45 is called the “Healthcare Insurance. Rate Changes. Initiative Statute.” It requires the Insurance Commissioner’s a pproval before a health insurer can change its rates or anything else affecting the charges associated with health insurance. It provides for public notice, disclosure, and hearing, and subsequent judicial review , and exempts employer large group health pl ans. Fiscal impact is increased state administrative costs to regulate health insurance, likely not exceeding the low millions of dollars annually in most years, funded from fees paid by health insurance companies. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 45? 39% yes 46 no 15 don’t know 1 9 . [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 45— is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 53% very important 32 somewhat important 7 not too important 3 not at all important 5 don’t know 20 . [likely voters only] Proposition 47 is called the “Criminal Sentences. Misdemeanor Penalties. Init iative Statute. ” It requires a misdemeanor sentence in stead of a felony for certain drug and property offenses and is inapplicable to persons with prior conviction for serious or violent crime and registered sex offenders. Fiscal impact is state and county criminal justice savings potentially in the high hund reds of millions of dollars annually and state savings spent on school truancy and dropout prevention, mental health and substance abuse treatment, and victim services. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 47? 59% yes 29 no 12 don’t know 2 1 . [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 47— is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 49% very important 35 somewhat important 8 not too important 3 not at all important 5 don’t know 2 2 . Changing topics, do you think the state budget situation in California —that is, the balance between government spending and revenues —is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today? 54% big problem 33 somewhat of a problem 7 not a problem 6 don’t know October 2014 Californians and Their Government 28 PPIC Statewide Survey 23 . Fiscal reforms have been proposed to address the structural issues in the state budget and local budget issues. Do you favor or oppose increasing the size of the state's rainy day fund and requiring above - average revenues to be deposited into it for use during economic downturns? 56% favor 29 oppose 15 don’t know Changing topics, 2 4 . Would you say that the supply of water is a big problem, som ewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem in your part of California? 68% big problem 17 somewhat of a problem 13 not much of a problem 1 don’t know 25. How closely are you following news about the current drought in California —very closely, fair ly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 50% very closely 32 fairly closely 13 not too closely 4 not at all closely 1 don’t know 25a. Overall, do you think that the state and local governments are doing too much, the right amount, or not enough to respond to the current drought in California? 5% too much 31 the right amount 57 not enough 7 don’t know Next, 2 6 . In your opinion, how much of a problem is crime in California today? Is it a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem? 50% big problem 38 somewhat of a problem 11 not much of a problem 1 don’t know 2 7 . As you may know, state funding is being provided to shift some of the lower -risk inmates from state prisons to county jails to reduce prison overcrowding and lower state costs. How confident are you that your local government is able to take on this responsibility? Are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? 12% very confident 36 somewhat confident 26 not too conf ident 22 not at all confident 3 don’t know On another topic, 28 . Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president of the United States? 49% approve 46 disapprove 5 don’t know 29 . Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job? 24% approve 68 disapprove 8 don’t know 3 0 . Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the U.S. House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job? 48% approve 39 disapprove 14 don’t know Next, 3 1 . As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a [ rotate ] (1) [generally favorable] [or ] (2) [generally unfavorable] opinion of it? 46% generally favorable 44 generally unfavorable 11 don’t know October 2014 Californians and Their Government 29 PPIC Statewide Survey 32 . In the long run, do you think the health care law will be [ rotate ] (1) [good] [or ] (2) [bad] for you and your family, or won’t it make much difference? 29% good 28 bad 39 won’t make much difference 4 don’t know Changing topics, [rotate questions 33 and 33a] 33 . Do you favor or oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to be legally married? 56% favor 36 oppose 8 don’t know 3 3 a. In general, do you think the use of marijuana should be legal, or not? 51% yes, legal 44 no, not legal 5 don’t know Next , [ rotate questions 34 and 35] 34 . Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of the Democratic Party? 46% favorable 43 unfavorable 10 don’t know 35 . Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of the Republican Party? 29% favorable 59 unfavorable 12 don’t know 36 . In your view, do the Republican and Democratic parties do an adequate job representing the American people, or do they do such a poor job that a third major party is needed? 29% adequate job 58 third party is needed 13 don’t know Changing topics, 37 . W here do you get most of your information about what’s going on in politics today — from [ rotate ] television, newspapers, radio, the Internet, magazines, or talking to other people? 38% television [ask q37a ] 32 Internet [skip to q37c ] 10 newspapers [skip to q37b] 9 radio [skip to q37d ] 8 talking to other people [skip to q37d ] 1 magazines [skip to q37d ] 1 other (specify) [skip to q37d ] 1 don't know [skip to q37d ] 37a. Would th at be mostly major network TV, mostly local TV, or mostly cable news stations such as CNN, Fox, or MSNBC? 21% major network TV 27 local TV 48 cable TV 1 other (specify) 2 don’t know [skip to q 37 d] 37 b. Do you mostly read the paper version of newspapers, or do you mostly read newspapers online? 66% paper version 34 online version [ skip to q37 d] 37 c. Do you mostly read the websites of newspapers or mostly other types of news websites? 29% websites of newspapers 67 other types of news w ebsites 4 don’t know October 2014 Californians and Their Government 30 PPIC Statewide Survey 37 d.Do you ever go online to get news and information on California politics and elections? (I f yes: Do you do this often or only sometimes?) 18% yes, often 34 yes, sometimes 48 no 1 not applicable/don’t use the Internet (volunteered) 3 8 . Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 13% very liberal 20 somewhat liberal 28 middle -of -the -road 23 somewhat conservative 12 very conservative 3 don’t know 39 . Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics —a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 23% great deal 37 fair amount 33 only a little 7 none 1 don’t know 40. [likely voters only] Thinking about the November 4 th election, are y ou more enthusiastic about voting than usual, or less enthusiastic? 40% more enthusiastic 42 less enthusiastic 15 same/neither (volunteered) 3 don’t know October 2014 Californians and Their Government 31 PPIC Statewide Survey [d1 to d5: dem ographic questions] D6. Are you, yourself, now covered by any form of health insurance or health plan or do you not have health insurance at this time? D6a. Which of the following is your main source of health insurance coverage? Is it a plan through your e mployer, a plan through your spouse’s employer, a plan you purchased yourself either from an insurance company or the state or federal marketplace, are you covered by Medicare or Medi -Cal, or do you get your health insurance from somewhere else? 81% yes, covered by health insurance 26 through employer 14 Medi -Cal 13 Medicare 10 through spouse’s employer 9 self-purchased plan [ask d6b] 4 through parents/mother/ father (volunteered ) 4 somewhere else (specify) 1 other government plan (vol unteered ) 18 not insured 2 don’t know/refused D6 b. [of those who purchased a plan themselves] Did you purchase your plan directly from an insurance company, from the marketplace known as healthcare.gov or Covered California, or through an insurance agent or broker? ( if agent or broker: Do you know if the plan you purchased through a broker was a plan from the state or federal health insurance marketplace known as healthcare.gov or Covered California, or was it a plan purchased directly from an insurance company and not through an exchange or marketplace? ) 41 % from an insurance company, either directly or through a broker 52 from healthcare.gov/ Covered California, either directly or through a broker 8 don’t know/refused Summary of D6, D6a, D6b 81% yes, covered by health insurance 26 through employer 14 Medi -Cal 13 Medicare 10 through spouse’s em ployer 9 se lf -purchased plan 4 from an insurance company, either directly or through a broker 5 from healthcare.gov/ Covered California, either directly or through a broker 1 don’t know 4 through parents/mother/ father (volunteered) 4 somewhere else (specify) 1 other government plan (volunteered) 18 not insured 2 don’t know/refused [d7 to d17: demographic questions] October 2014 Californians and Their Government 32 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect Angela Blackwell Founder and CEO PolicyLink Mollyann Brodie Senior Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Bill Lane Center for the American West Stanford University Jon Cohen Vice President of Survey Research SurveyMonkey Joshua J. Dyck Co-Director Center for Public Opinion University of Massachusetts, Lowell Russell Hancock President and CEO Joint Venture Silicon Valley Network Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Robert Lapsley President California Business Roundtable Carol S. Larson President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Monica Lozano Chairman US Hispanic Media, Inc. Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Lisa Pitney Vice President, Government Relations The Walt Disney Company Robert K. Ross, M.D. President and CEO The California Endowment Most Reverend Jaime Soto Bishop of Sacramento Roman Catholic Diocese of Sacramento Carol Whiteside President Emeritus Great Valley Center The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PPIC BOARD OF DIRECTORS Donna Lucas, Chair Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Mark Baldassare President and CEO Public Policy Institute of California Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect María Blanco Vice President, Civic Engagement California Community Foundation Brigitte Bren Attorney Louise Henry Bryson Chair Emerita, Board of Trustees J. Paul Getty Trust Walter B. Hewlett Member, Board of Directors The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Phil Isenberg Vice Chair, Delta Stewardship Council Mas Masumoto Author and F armer Steven A. Merksamer Senior Partner Nielsen, Merksamer, Parrinello, Gross & Leoni , LLP Kim Polese Chairman ClearStreet, Inc. Thomas C. Sutton Retired Chairman and CEO Pacific Life Insurance Company The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research on major economic, social, and political issues. The institute’s goal is to raise public awareness and to give elected representatives and other decision makers a more informed basis for developing policies and programs. The institute’s research focuses on the underlying forces shaping California’s future, cutting across a wide range of public policy concerns, including economic development, education, environment and resources, governance, population, public finance, and social and health policy. PPIC is a public charity . It does not take or support positions on any ballot measures or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. PPIC was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. Mark Baldassare is President and CEO of PPIC. Donna Lucas is Chair of the Board of Directors. Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source and the copyright notice below is included. Copyright © 201 4 Public Policy Institute of California All rights reserved. San Francisco, CA PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, California 94111 phone: 415.291.4400 fax: 415.291.4401 PPIC SACRAMENTO CENT ER Senator Office Building 1121 L Street, Suite 801 Sacramento, California 95814 phone: 916.440.1120 fax: 916.440.1121 www.ppic.org survey@ppic.org" } ["___content":protected]=> string(104) "

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" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(112) "https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2014/s_1014mbs/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(8932) ["ID"]=> int(8932) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:42:13" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(4397) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(9) "S 1014MBS" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(9) "s_1014mbs" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(13) "S_1014MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "589515" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(88420) "CONTENTS About the Survey 2 Press Release 3 November 2014 Election 6 State and National Issues 13 Regional Map 22 Methodology 23 Questionnaire and Results 25 their government OCTOBER 2014 & P P I C S TAT E W I D E S U R V E Y Californians Mark Baldassare Dean Bonner Renatta DeFever Lunna Lopes Jui Shrestha i T ABOUT THE SURVEY The PPIC Statewide Sur vey provides policymakers, the media, and the public with objective, advocacy- free information on the perceptions, opinions, and public policy preferences of California residents. This is the 145 th PPIC Statewide Sur vey in a series that was inaugurated in April 1998 and has generated a database of responses from more than 304,000 Californians. This is the 64th in the Californians and Their Government series. The survey is conducted periodically to examine the social, economic, and political trends that influence public policy preferences and ballot choices. Suppor ted with funding from The James Ir vine Foundation, the series seeks to inform decisionmakers, raise public awareness, and stimulate policy discussions and debate about impor tant state and national issues. This sur vey took place in the final weeks leading up to the November 4 election. This election features six ballot propositions , including a bond measure to fund water projects —this in the midst of a severe drought . California v oters will also decide on the creation of a budget stabilization account , regulation of changes to health insurance rates, and chang es to sentencing requirements for cer tain offenses . The U.S. Supreme Cour t rejected cases to overturn bans on same -sex marriage in five states, and the Vatican is also consideri ng a more lenient stance toward div orce and gay marriage. The second open enrollment period under the 2010 health care law is about to begin. The sur vey presents the responses of 1,704 adult residents throughout California, inter viewed in English or Spanish by landline or cell phone. It includes findings on the following topics:  November 2014 election, including preferences in the governor’s race, s atisfaction with candidate choices , and enthusiasm about voting in the election; par ty preferences in the elections for the U.S. House of Representatives and the California State Assembly ; suppor t for and perceptions of the impor tance of four propositions: Proposition 1 (authorizes $7.5 billi on for water quality, supply, treatment, and storage projects), Proposition 2 (creates a state budget stabilization account), Proposition 45 (requires approval for changes to health insurance rates), Proposition 47 (changes sentencing for cer tain drug and proper ty offenses) .  State and national issues , including views on the state’s outlook; approval ratings of state and federal elected officials ; views on the seriousness of regional water supply issues , attention to news about the current drought, and perce ptions of the government’s response to the drought ; views on the seriousness of the state budget situation and suppor t for a rainy day fund; opinions of the 2010 health care reform law, as well the law ’s l o n g-term effect ; assessment s of crime level s in the state and confidence in local government ’s handling of the transfer of state prisoners to local jails ; suppor t for same- sex marriage and legalizing marijuana; perceptions of major par ties ; and Californians’ sources of news about politics and elections .  Time trends, national comparisons, and the extent to which Californians may differ in their perceptions, attitudes, and preferences regarding state and federal government based on political par ty affiliation, likelihood of voting, region of residence, race/ethnicity, and other demographics. This repor t may be downloaded free of charge from our website ( www.ppic.org). If you have questions about the sur vey, please contact sur vey@ppic.org . Tr y our PPIC Statewide Sur vey interactive tools online at www.ppic.org/main/sur vAdvancedSearch.asp. October 2014 Californians and Their Government 2 PPIC Statewide Survey CONTACT Linda Strean 415-291-4412 NEWS RELEASE EMBARGOED: Do not publish or broadcast until 9:00 p.m. PDT on Wednesday , October 22, 2014. Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: http://www.ppic.org/main/pressreleaseindex.asp PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT Most Favor Water Bo nd, Rainy Day Fund Gains Ground as Brown Keeps Lead MAJORITY SUPPORT FOR CHANGE IN CRIME SENTENCE S—HEALTH INSURANCE MEASURE LAGS SAN FRANCISCO, October 22 , 2014 —Jerry Brown maintains his strong lead among likely voters in the governor’s race against Neel Kashkari. Among two statewide ballot measures that Brown is campaigning for, Proposition 1 —the $7.5 billion water bond —continues t o have majority support and Proposition 2 — the “rainy day fund” —has gained ground since September, with about half of likely voters in favor today. A majority continue to favor Proposition 47, the measure to reduce sentences for some drug and property offenses. Support for Proposition 45 —which would give the state insurance commissioner authority over health insurance rates —has declined since last month and continues to fall short of a majority. These are among the key findings of a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), with support from The James Irvine Foundation. “The state propositions may end up driving voters to the polls who would otherwise sit out this midterm electi on in California,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO. “ Many likely voters say the election outcomes on the ballot measures dealing with water, the state budget, health care, and criminal sentencing are important to them.” Brown is ahead of Kas hkari, 52 to 36 percent —a 16 point lead . By comparison, Brown led by 19 points in July and 21 points in September . Among likely voters, 83 percent of Democrats support Brown and 71 percent of Republicans favor Kashkari. Independents are divided (44 % Brown , 40% Kashkari). Brown’s overall job approval rating is at 54 percent among likely voters. His record -high job approval rating is 60 percent, reached in January this year. About half of likely voters (52%) are satisfied with their choice of candidates. Dem ocrats (66%) and independents (54%) are far more likely to be satisfied than Republicans (36%). About half of likely voters say they are following news about the candidates very closely (18%) or fairly closely (34%) . A ttention to the news was higher in Oct ober 2006, the last gubernatorial election with an incumbent (19% very closely, 55% fairly closely). Weeks before Election Day, California’s likely voters are more upbeat than they were four years ago. While less than half say the state is going in the r ight direction (40%), just 12 percent expressed this view four years ago. And likely voters are twice as likely today to say the state will have good times economically in the next year (42%) than they were in 2010 (20%). October 2014 Californians and Their Government 3 PPIC Statewide Survey FOLLOWING THE NEWS OF DROUGHT CLOS ELY, MOST FAVOR PROPOSITION 1 When read the ballot title and label for Proposition 1, 56 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 32 percent no, and 12 percent don’t know. Most Democrats (68%) and independents (56%) favor the measure, which would fund water quality, supply, treatment, and storage projects. Republicans are evenly divided (43% yes, 43% no). Asked how important the outcome of the vote on Proposition 1 is to them, 54 percent of likely voters say it is very important and 33 percent say somewhat important. More than half of both supporters and opponents of Proposition 1 consider the outcome very important. Californians express support for the water bond as the state struggles with a severe drought. A vast majority of likely voters say th ey are following news about the drought either very closely (62%) or fairly closely (30%) —a far greater share than are following news about the gubernatorial candidates. Asked to name the most important issue facing Californians, likely voters today are now about as likely to name water and drought (28%) as jobs and the economy (30%). Four years ago, 59 percent named jobs and the economy as the top issue. An overwhelming majority (72%) say the supply of water is a big problem in their part of California. Those living in inland ar eas (74%) and coastal areas (72%) are equally likely to say water supply is a big problem. How do likely voters feel about gove rnment response to the drought? A solid majority (62%) say state and local governments are not doing en ough, while 28 percent say governments are doing the right amount and 4 percent say governments are doing too much. “Majorities across the major state regions say that water supply is a big problem in their part of California and that their state and local government is not doing enough about this issue,” Baldassare said. “Whatever the outcome in November, voters will want more action on water and the drought next year.” HALF OF LIKELY VOTER S SUPPORT PROPOSITION 2 Proposition 2 would establish a budget stabilization account, or rainy day fund, that would include a separate reserve for public schools. Today, 49 percent of likely voters would vote yes on the measure, 34 percent would vote no, and 17 percent are undecided. Support for Proposition 2 has incr eased 6 points since September (43% yes, 33% no, 24% undecided) . About half of Democrats (53%), Republicans (49%), and independents (49%) favor the proposition. A third (33%) of likely voters say the outcome on this measure is very important. The fiscal r eform concept behind Proposition 2— increasing the size of the rainy day fund and requiring that the state deposit above -average revenues into it —has majority support among likely voters (55%) today. In previous surveys, the general idea of increasing the r ainy day fund has had higher support (76% May 2010, 71% January 2011, 69% May 2011, 70% December 2012, 70% January 2014). A majority of likely voters (62%) today say the state’s budget situation is a big problem, but this is down significantly from two ye ars ago (80%) and four years ago (90%). PROPOSITION 45 FALTE RING Proposition 45 would require the insurance commissioner’s approval for changes to charges associated with health insurance. It has the support of 39 percent of likely voters, down 9 points from September (48%) . Today, 46 percent would vote no and 15 percent are uncertain (38% no, 14% uncertain in September). Just over half (53%) say the outcome of Proposition 45 is very important to them. California likely voters continue to be divided over the health care reform law itself (46% generally favorable, 46% unfavorable). Asked how much difference the law will make in the long run, they are split: 35 percent say it won’t make much difference, 33 percent say it will be a bad thing for them and thei r families, and 29 percent say it will be a good thing. October 2014 Californians and Their Government 4 PPIC Statewide Survey PROPOSITION 47 SUPPORT HOLDS STEADY Proposition 47 requires a misdemeanor sentence —rather than a felony —for certain drug and property offen ses . It does not apply to registered sex offenders or offenders with a prior conviction for serious or violent crimes. A majority of likely voters (59%) would vote yes on the measure, 29 percent would vote no, and 12 percent don’t know. Findings were similar in September ( 62 % yes, 2 5% no, 13% uncertain). Today, solid majorities of Democrats (67%) and independents (65%) would vote yes, while Republicans are more divided (48% yes, 40% no). Half of likely voters (49%) say the outcome of the vote on the proposition is very important. Just 2 percent of likely vote rs name crime, drugs, and gangs as the most important issue facing the state. However, an overwhelming majority say that crime is a big problem ( 54%) or somewhat of a problem (3 3%) in California . Under the state’s corrections realignment policy, local gov ernments have taken on responsibility for some of the state’s lower -risk inmates. However, less than half of likely voters are very confident (13%) or somewhat confident (33%) in their local government’s ability to take on these new tasks. LEGISLATURE’S RATING UP, OBAMA AT RE CORD LOW, CONGRESS I S LOWER Slightly more than a third of likely voters (37%) approve of the way the California Legislature is handling its job —up from 10 percent four years ago. They give a similar rating to their own assembly and stat e senate representatives (38%). This, too, is an improvement over 2010, when 30 percent approved of their own legislative representatives. Asked a general question about party preference, 48 percent of likely voters say they would vote for the Democratic c andidate for assembly in their district if the election were held today and 40 percent say they would vote for the Republican candidate. President Obama has a record -low 44 percent job approval rating among California likely voters, and they continue to disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job (16% approve, 79% disapprove). They give their own representative in the U.S. House a much higher rating of 47 percent. If the election were held today, 48 percent of likely voters would vote for t he Democratic candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in their district and 41 percent would vote for the Republican. California likely voters are more likely to have a favorable impression of the Democratic Party (44% favorable, 50% unfavorable) than the Republican Party (30% favorable, 64% unfavorable). But that does not mean they are satisfied. Favorability for both parties has declined since October 2012, when 53 percent had a favorable impression of the Democratic Party and 38 percent had a fa vorable impression of the Republican Party. Today, a solid majority (63%) say that both parties do such a poor job representing the American people that a third party is needed. The share of likely voters expressing this view has increased 11 points since October 2012 (52%). AN ‘ENTHUSIASM GAP’ THIS ELECTION YEAR How does all of this translate into likely voters’ level of enthusiasm for voting in November? While 40 percent say they are more enthusiastic than in previous elections, a similar share (42%) say they are less enthusiastic. Larger shares of likely voters said they were more enthusiastic about voting in the last gubernatorial election (53% October 2010) and in the last presidential election (61% October 2012). “California likely voters are signaling an enthusiasm gap that cuts across party lines,” Baldassare said. “ The potential for another low turnout election is troubling for California.” October 2014 Californians and Their Government 5 NOVEMBER 2014 ELECTION KEY FINDINGS  In the closing weeks of the governor’s race, incumbent Jerry Brown has a 16 point lead over challenger Neel Kashkari. (page 7 )  Attention to news about gubernatorial candidates and enthusiasm about v oting are both lower than in previous years; Democrats are far more satisfied than Republicans with their choice of gubernatorial candidates. (page 7 )  Asked which party’s candidate they would prefer in races for the California State Assembly and the U.S. House of Representatives , voters responded strongly along party lines . (page 8)  Fifty -six percent of likely voters would vote in favor of Proposition 1, which authorizes $7.5 billion for water quality, supply, treatment, and storage projects. More than half view the outcome of the vote as very important. (page 9 )  Forty -nine percent of likely voters (up 6 points from September) would vote yes on Proposition 2, which would establish a budget stabilization account ; 33 percent view the outcome as very important. ( page 10 )  Thirty -nine percent of likely voters (down 9 points from September), would vote yes on Proposition 45, which would require approval for changes to health insurance rates. About h alf consider the outcome of Proposition 45 very important. (page 11 )  On Proposition 47, 59 percent of likely voters would vote yes (down 3 points since September). This measure reduces sentences for certain drug and property offences. Forty -nine percent consider the outcome as very important. (page 12 ) 48 62 39 59 0 20 40 60 80 Prop 45: HealthcareInsurance, RateChanges Prop 47: CriminalSentences,Misdemeanor Penalties Percent likely voters September October Percent Supporting Propositions 45 and 47 58 43 56 49 0 20 40 60 80 Prop 1: Water Bond,Funding for WaterQuality, Supply,Treatment, andStorage Projects Prop 2: State Budget,Budget StabilizationAccount Percent likely voters September October Percent SupportingPropositions 1 and 2 525452 333336 424 11118 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 July September October Percent likely voters Jerry Brown Neel Kashkari Would not vote (volunteered) Don't know 2014 Gubernatorial Election October 2014 Californians and Their Government 6 PPIC Statewide S urvey GUBERNATORIAL ELECTI ON With just weeks remaining in the gubernatorial race, about half likely voters are either very (18%) or fairly ( 34 %) closely following news about the candidates. Attention to news was higher in October 2006, the most recent election that involved an incumbent (19% very, 55% fairly) . Attention to news is far l ower today than it was in October 2010 (39% very, 50% fairly). Incumbent Jerry Brown , a Democrat, has a 16 point lead over Republican Neel Kashkari (5 2% to 36 %) and he held a 21 point lead in September (54% to 33%) and a 19 point lead in July (52% to 33%) . Today, 83 percent of Democrats support Brown and 71 percent of Republicans support Kashkari. Similar shares of independents would vote for Brown (44 %) or Kashkari (40%) and 13 percent are still unsure. Brown has the support of at least half of likely vot ers in the San Francisco Bay Area (61%), Los Angeles (55%) , and the Central Valley (50 %). Kashkari has majority suppo rt only in Orange/San Diego (51%). Likely voters in the Inland Empire are divided (41% Brown, 44% Kashkari). M en and women are equally likely (52% each ) and Latinos (73 %) are far more likely than whites (44%) to support Brown. “If the November 4th election for governor were being held today, would you vote for Jerry Brown, a Democrat, or Neel Kashkari, a Republican?” Likely voters only Jerry Brown, a Democrat Neel Kashkari, a Republican Would not vote for governor (volunteered) Don’t know All likely voters 52% 36% 4% 8% Party Democrats 83 10 1 6 Republicans 14 71 5 10 Independents 44 40 3 13 Region Central Valley 50 41 1 8 San Francisco Bay Area 61 23 3 12 Los Angeles 55 32 5 8 Orange/San Diego 37 51 7 6 Inland Empire 41 44 3 12 Gender Men 52 38 5 5 Women 52 34 2 12 Race/Ethnicity* Latinos 73 19 1 8 Whites 44 45 4 7 *Sample sizes for Asian and black likely voters are too small for separate analysis . Fifty -two percent of likely voters are satisfied with their choice of candidates for governor, and 37 percent are not satisfied. Satisfaction today is similar to October 2006 (51%) but higher than in October 2010 (42%). Satisfaction is far higher among Democrats ( 66%) and Brown supporters (73%) than among Republicans (36%) and Kashkari (30 %) supporters. Over half of independents (54%) are satisfied . “In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for governor on November 4th?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Gubernatorial vote Dem Rep Ind Jerry Brown Neel Kashkari Satisfied 52% 66% 36% 54% 73% 30% Not satisfied 37 26 47 39 20 55 Don’t know 12 8 17 6 7 15 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 7 PPIC Statewide S urvey CONGRESSIONAL AND LE GISLATIVE ELECTIONS California’s likely voters are about as likely to be less enthusiastic ( 42%) as they are to be more enthusiastic ( 40%) than usual about voting in the November 4th election, while 15 percent say their level of enthusiasm is the same. Likely voters were much more likely to say they were more enthusiastic about voting in both the 2010 gubernatorial election (53% October 2010) and the 2012 presidential election (61% October 2012). Similar shares across parties ( 44% independents, 42% Democrats, 4 1% Republicans, ) express less enthusiasm about voting in this election. Among Kashkari supporters, 41 percent are less enthusiastic , and 38 percent of Brown supporters express less enthusiasm than usual. Women (47%) are more likely than men (3 6%) to express less enthusiasm. In a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey among registered voters nationwide, 44 percent of voters were more enthusiastic, 39 percent were less enthusiasti c, and 16 percent felt the same level of enthusiasm as in previous elections. “Thinking about the November 4th election, are you more enthusiastic about voting than usual, or less enthusiastic?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Race/ Ethnicity Dem Rep Ind Latino s White s More enthusiastic 40% 38% 44% 40% 42% 41% Less enthusiastic 42 42 41 44 37 42 Same/Neither (volunteered) 15 18 13 14 15 14 Don’t know 3 3 2 1 6 2 In races for the U.S. House of Representatives, likely voters prefer Democratic candidates over Republican candidates by 7 points (4 8% to 41%). Findings were similar in October 2006 , when Democratic candidates were preferred over Republican candidates by 11 points (52% to 41%). In a recent ABC News/Washington Post survey , registered voters nationwide were closely divided (46% Democratic candidate, 44% Republican candidate). In California, 84 percent of Democrats and 88 percent of Republicans would vote for their own party’s candidate. Among independents, 41 percent would vote Democratic, 35 percent would vote Republican, and 24 percent are unsure. “If the 2014 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district? ( If other/unsure: As of today, do you lean more toward the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate ?)” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Race/ Ethnicity Dem Rep Ind Latino s White s Republican candidate 41% 9% 88% 35% 17% 52% Democratic candidate 48 84 5 41 76 37 Don’t know 11 7 7 24 8 11 Similarly, if the 2014 election for the California State Assembly were held today, 48 percent of likely voters would vote for the Democratic candidate and 40 percent would vote for the Republican candidate in their district. Voter preferences fall strongly along party lines. Among independents, 40 percent favor the Democrat ic candidate and 35 percent favor the Republican candidate. A strong majority of Latinos ( 72 %) would vote for the Democrat, while half of white likely voters (50% ) would vote for the Republican. More than half of likely voters in the San Francisco Bay Area (57%) and Los Angeles (55%) favor the Democratic candidate; while at least half of like ly voters in Orange/San Diego (58%), the Inland Empire ( 55%), and the Central Valley (50%) prefer the Republican candidate. October 2014 Californians and Their Government 8 PPIC Statewide S urvey PROPOSITION 1 In the midst of a severe drought, California voters will be voting on Proposition 1, a $7.5 billion bond measure to fund water quality, supply, treatment, and storage projects. The measure was removed from previous years’ ballots and scaled down from $11.1 billion. When read the ballot title and label, 56 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 32 percent woul d vote no, and 12 percent are undecided. Findings were similar last month (58% yes, 29% no , 14% unsure). Proposition 1 has majority support among Democrats (68%) and independents (56 %); Republicans are closely divided (43% yes, 43% no). More than half of likely voters in Los Angeles (67%), the Central Valley (58%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (5 7%) support Proposition 1, while residents in Orange/San Diego (43% yes, 45% no) and the Inland Empire (44% yes, 48% no) are divided . Majorities of Latinos ( 62%) and whites (56%) as well as men ( 59 %) and women (54%) support Proposition 1. “Proposition 1 is called the ‘Water Bond. Funding for Water Quality, Supply, Treatment, and Storage Projects.’ If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on Proposi tion 1?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 56% 32% 12% Party Democrats 68 20 12 Republicans 43 43 14 Independents 56 35 9 Region Central Valley 58 30 12 San Francisco Bay Area 57 30 13 Los Angeles 67 21 12 Orange/San Diego 43 45 12 Inland Empire 44 48 8 Income Under $40,000 57 28 14 $40,000 to under $80,000 61 33 5 $80,000 or more 55 31 14 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 27 . Fifty -four percent of likely voters say the outcome of Proposition 1 is very important to them. The belief that the outcome is very important is highest among Democrats (57%), followed by independents (51%) and Republicans (48%) . More than half of s upporters and opponents of Proposition 1 consider the outcome to be very impo rtant. Majorities of Latinos (66%) and whites (51%) as well as men ( 55%) and women (54%) hold this view. Across regions, likely voters in the Central Valley (66%) are the most likely to view the outcome as very important, followed by those in San Francisco Bay Area (55%), the Inland Empire (54%), Los Angeles (50%), and Orange/San Diego (48%). “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 1?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Vote on Proposition 1 Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 54% 57% 48% 51% 57% 53% Somewhat important 33 34 38 33 37 31 Not too important 7 5 10 12 4 13 Not at all important 2 2 1 2 1 3 Don’t know 3 3 4 3 1 1 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 9 PPIC Statewide S urvey PROPOSITION 2 After passing Proposition 30 two years ago and with the state budget situation continuing to improve, voters will decide whether to require annual transfer of state general fund revenues to establish a budget stabilization account, or rainy day fund , to be used in repaying state debts and emergencies or budget deficits . Proposition 2 is a replacement for another rainy day fund amendment that was originally slated for the 2012 ballot. When read the ballot title and label, 49 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 34 percent would vote no, and 17 percent are undecided. Support is up 6 points from last month, when 4 3 percent of likely voters said they would vote yes, 33 percent said they would vote no, and 24 percent were unsure. Pluralities ac ross parties say they would vote yes. About half of likely voters in the Central Valley (51%), Los Angeles (50%), and Orange/San Diego (50%) would vote yes, while fewer than half in the Inland Empire (45%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (44%) would do so . About half of whites (5 0% , 32% no ) would vote yes, while Latinos are divided (44% yes, 39% no). Half of men ( 50%) and women ( 48%) would vote yes. Pluralities across education and income groups would vote yes on Proposition 2. “Proposition 2 is called the ‘State Budget. Budget Stabilization Account Legislative Constitutional Amendment.’ If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on Proposition 2?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 49% 34% 17% Party Democrats 53 30 16 Republicans 49 34 17 Independents 49 37 14 Region Central Valley 51 30 19 San Francisco Bay Area 44 36 20 Los Angeles 50 32 18 Orange/San Diego 50 38 12 Inland Empire 45 42 12 Income Under $40,000 52 33 15 $40,000 to under $80,000 55 33 12 $80,000 or more 45 33 22 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 27 . One in three likely voters ( 33%) say the outcome of Proposition 2 is very important to them. Independents (36%) are the most likely to hold this view , followed by Republicans (32%) and Democrats (29%). F ewer than f our in 10 of both supporters and opponents see the outcome as very important, but opponents are more likely than supporters to say it is not too or not at all important. “How important to you is the outco me of the vote on Proposition 2?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Vote on Proposition 2 Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 33% 29% 32% 36% 36% 33% Somewhat important 44 48 44 42 54 36 Not too important 13 13 12 16 6 24 Not at all important 4 4 5 1 3 5 Don’t know 7 6 7 5 1 1 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 10 PPIC Statewide S urvey PROPOSITION 45 Proposition 45 would require the insurance commissioner’s approval for changes to health insurance rates. When read the ballot title and label, 39 percent of likely voters would vote yes, 46 percent would vote no, and 15 percent are unsure. Support has declined 9 points since September, when 48 percent of likely voters said they would vote yes, 38 percent said they would vote no, and 14 percent were unsure. Democrats (4 8%) and independents ( 46 %) are more likely than Republicans (25%) to say they would vote yes. Support among likely voters is highest in the San Francisco Bay Area (44%) and Los Angeles (44%), followed by the Inland Empire (36%), the Central Valley (33%), and Orange/San Diego (29%). Latino likely voters (46 %) are much more likely than whites (34%) to say they would vote yes. Fewer than half of likely voters across education and income groups would vote yes on Proposition 45. “Proposition 45 is called the ‘Healthcare Insurance. Rate Changes. Initiative Statute.’ If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on Proposition 45?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 39% 46% 15% Party Democrats 48 38 15 Republicans 25 61 14 Independents 46 43 11 Region Central Valley 33 49 18 San Francisco Bay Area 44 39 17 Los Angeles 44 42 14 Orange/San Diego 29 59 12 Inland Empire 36 56 8 Income Under $40,000 48 35 16 $40,000 to under $80,000 41 53 6 $80,000 or more 34 51 15 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 28. Slightly more than half of likely voters ( 53%) say the outcome of Proposition 45 is very important to them. In September, 42 percent said the outcome was very important. Republicans (5 7%) and Democrats (53 %) are more likely than independents (43 %) to hold this view. More than half of those who favor (54%) and those who oppose (58%) Proposition 45 th ink the outcome of the vote is very important. “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 45?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Vote on Proposition 45 Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 53% 53% 57% 43% 54% 58% Somewhat important 32 38 26 40 38 32 Not too important 7 5 5 13 5 7 Not at all important 3 2 5 2 2 3 Don’t know 5 3 7 3 – 1 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 11 PPIC Statewide S urvey PROPOSITION 47 Proposition 47 requires misdemeanor instead of felony sentences for certain drug and property offenses but is inapplicable to registered sex offenders and persons with prior conviction s for serious or violent crimes. When read the ballot title and label, 5 9 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 29 percent would vote no, and 1 2 percent are unsure. Support was similar in September, when 62 percent of likely voters said they would vote yes, 25 percent said they would vote no, and 13 percent were unsure. Two in three Democrats (67 %) and independents ( 65%) say they would vote yes, while Republicans are more divided ( 48% yes, 40 % no). At least half of likely voters across regions would vote yes (64% San Francisco Bay Area, 59 % Los Angeles, 57% Orange/San Diego, 56% Inland Empire, 51% Central Valley) . White likely voters ( 60%) are somewhat more likely than Latinos ( 52%) to say they would vote yes. Majorities across i ncome groups would vote yes ; support is slightly higher among likely voters with at least some college (61%) than among those with a high school degree or less (53%) . “Proposition 47 is called the ‘Criminal Sentences. Misdemeanor Penalties. Initiative Statute.’ If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on Proposition 47?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 59% 29% 12% Party Democrats 67 22 11 Republicans 48 40 12 Independents 65 24 12 Region Central Valley 51 34 16 San Francisco Bay Area 64 23 13 Los Angeles 59 30 12 Orange/San Diego 57 30 14 Inland Empire 56 34 10 Income Under $40,000 64 26 10 $40,000 to under $80,000 60 30 10 $80,000 or more 57 31 11 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 28. Half of likely voters (4 9%) say the outcome of the vote on Proposition 47 is very important. In September, 42 percent said the outcome was very important. Half of Democrats and independents hold this view, as do nearly half of Republicans . Fifty -five percent of those who would vote yes and 48 percent of those who would vote no say the outcome is very important. “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 47?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Vote on Proposition 47 Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 49% 50% 46% 50% 55% 48% Somewhat important 35 34 36 35 36 34 Not too important 8 10 7 10 8 9 Not at all important 3 2 4 2 1 8 Don’t know 5 4 7 2 – 1 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 12 STATE AND NATIONAL ISSUES KEY FINDINGS  Californians mention jobs and the economy, and water and drought as the top issues facing the state. ( page 14)  Overall mood and economic outlook for the state has improved since the last gubernatorial election. (page 14 )  Leading up to the general election, 50 percent of adults and 54 percent of likely voters approve of Governor Brown. Approval of the legislature is at 41 percent; 43 percent of Californians approve of their own state le gislators. (page 15 )  President Obama’s approval remains near his record low. Despite low ratings for the U.S. Congress (2 4%), 48 percent of Californians approve of their own representative in the U.S. House of Representatives. (page 16 )  The share saying regional water supply is a big problem is at a record high (68%). Most Californians are following news about the current drought. Nearly s ix in 10 say state and local governments are not doing enough to respond to the drought. (page 17 )  A majority of Californians view the state budget situation as a big problem and favor the idea of a rainy day fund. (page 18 )  Half of Californians view crim e as a big problem in the state, with Central Valley residents being the most likely to hold this view. (page 19)  Californians continue to hold mixed views about the 2010 health care reform law. ( page 20 )  Favorable impressions of both major parties have declined since the last presidential election. (page 21 ) 42 58 50 28 4241 0 20 40 60 80 Percent all adults Governor Brown California Legislature Approval Ratings of State Elected Officials Oct 2012Jan 2014 Oct 2014 63 5349 262624 0 20 40 60 80 Percent all adults President Obama U.S. Congress Approval Ratings of FederalElected Officials Oct 2012Jan 2014 Oct 2014 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 13 PPIC Statewide S urvey OVERALL MOOD Californians today are as likely to say that the most important issue facing the state today is jobs/the economy (29%) as they are to say water /drought (26 %). Four years ago, 59 percent of adults named jobs /the economy. Trends are similar today for likely voters ( 30% jobs, 28% water). Across regions, w ater /drought is the top issue in the Central Valley (38 %) and the San Francisco Bay Area (31%), while fewer mention this issue in Orange/San Diego (20%), Los Angeles ( 18%), and the Inland Empire ( 14%). “First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today?” Top three issues mentioned All adults Region Likely voters Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Jobs, economy 29% 23 % 20% 35% 30% 38% 30 % Water, drought 26 38 31 18 20 14 28 Education, schools, teachers 6 3 9 8 6 3 5 At least four in 10 adults (47 %) and likely voters (4 0%) say things in California are generally going in the right direction. Four years ago, 16 percent of adults and 12 percent of likely voters held this view. Today, Democrats ( 61%) say right direction more often than independents (43 %) or Republicans (20%) do . San Francisco Bay Area residents ( 59%) are more likely to hold this view than those living elsewhere ( 53 % Orange/San Diego, 4 7% Los Angeles, 46% Inland Empire, 28% Central Valley). “Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Right direction 47% 61 % 20 % 43 % 40 % Wrong direction 46 30 74 52 54 Don’t know 7 9 6 5 6 Ab out four in 10 adults (4 5%) and likely voters ( 42%) say the state will have good times financially in the next 12 months. Four years ago, 25 percent of adults and 20 percent of likely voters held this view. Today, San Francisco Bay Area (58 %) residents are more likely to expect good economic times than residents in Los Angeles (47 %), the Inland Empire (42%), Orang e/San Diego (40%), and the Central Valley (3 5%) . Democrats ( 60%) express more economic optimism than independents (37%) and Republicans (2 5%). “Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?” All adults Region Likely voters Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Good times 45% 35 % 58% 47% 40% 42% 42 % Bad times 44 58 28 42 48 50 47 Don’t know 11 8 14 11 12 7 11 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 14 PPIC Statewide S urvey APPROVAL OF STATE ELECTED OFFICIALS Within a month of the November 4 election, 5 0 percent of adults and 5 4 percent of likely voters approve of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor. Two years ago, 42 percent of adults and 45 percent of likely voters approved of Governor Brown’s job performance. Today, the governor’s approval rating is far hi gher among Democrats (7 2%) than among independents ( 49%) or Republicans ( 26%). His approval rating is somewhat higher in the San Francisco Bay Area ( 59%) and Los Angeles (54%) than in the Central Valley (48%), the Inland Empire (41%), and Orange/San Diego (41 %). Approval is similar among men (5 2%) and women ( 48%); pluralities across age, education, income, and racial/ethnic groups approve of his job performance. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Approve 50% 72 % 26 % 49 % 54 % Disapprove 28 16 63 32 37 Don’t know 22 12 12 19 9 Forty -one percent of California adults and 37 percent of likely voters approve of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job. Two years ago, 28 percent of adults and 21 percent of likely voters approved of its performance. Four years ago, 16 percent of adults and 10 percent of likely voters approved of its job performance. Today, 54 percent of Democrats express approval, compared to 34 percent of independents and 14 percent of Republicans. Residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (50%) are the mostly likely to approve of the legislatur e, followed by Los Angeles (4 5%), Orange/San Diego ( 38 %), the Inland Empire ( 33%), and the Central Valley (27%) . Approval is similar among men ( 42%) and women ( 40%). Whites (2 9%) and blacks (39 %) express lower approval than Latinos (53 %). Approval of the legislature tend s to decline as income levels rise and is lower among homeowners than renters. Forty -three percent of adults and 38 percent of likely voters approve of the job of their own state legislators. These approval ratings were at 36 percent for adults and 35 percent for likely voters in September 2012, and at 31 percent for adults and 30 percent for likely voters in September 2010. Today, Democrats (5 2%) give higher approval ratings to their state legislators than do independents ( 42 %) or Republicans ( 24%). San Francisco Bay Area (50%) residents are the most likely to approve , followed by Los Angeles (45%), Orange/San Diego (43%), Central Valley (37%), and the Inland Empire (36%). Approval is identical among men and women (43 % each), while homeowners (4 0%) are slightly less likely than renters (4 8%) to hold this view . Approval is lower among blacks (36%) and whites (38%) than among Latinos (50%). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that…?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind the California Legislature is handling its job Approve 41% 54 % 14 % 34 % 37 % Disapprove 42 31 75 51 51 Don ’t know 17 16 11 15 13 the state legislators representing your assembly and senate districts are doing at this time Approve 43 52 24 42 38 Disapprove 39 34 62 45 50 Don ’t know 18 14 14 13 12 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 15 PPIC Statewide S urvey APPROVAL OF FEDERAL ELECTED OFFICIALS President Obama’s job approval rating remains near his record low. N early half (4 9%) of Californians say they approve of the way he is handling his job, while a similar proportion disapprove (46 %). Nationally, the president’s job approval among all adults stands at 40 percent (51% disapprove) in a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll. Likely voters in California are more likely to disapprove (5 3%) than to approve (4 4%). Partisan differences are notable, with nearly three in four Democrats (73 %) approving of President Obama and nine in 10 Republicans ( 90%) disapproving . Independents are more divided , with 4 4 percent approving and about half (5 1%) disapproving . M ajorities of blacks (80%) and Latinos (55 %) approve of the job the president is doing, but 37 percent of whites do so. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president of the United States?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Approve 49% 73 % 10 % 44 % 44 % Disapprove 46 22 90 51 53 Don’t know 5 5 1 5 3 A strong majority ( 68%) of Californians continue to disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job (2 4% approve). Among adults nationwide, Congress has an even lower approval rating , with only 15 percent saying they approve and 78 percent saying they disapprove in a recent CBS News poll. Eight in 10 California likely voters (79%) disapprove of the way the U .S. Congress is handling its job. Strong majorities of Democrats (7 2%), Republicans (8 0%) , and independents ( 74%) say they disapprove of the way the Congress is handling its job. Despite low approval of Congress overall , nearly half of Californians (48%) approve of the way their own representative is handling his or her job in the U.S. House of Representatives ( 39% disapprove ). These results are similar to those in May (48% approve, 36% disapprove). Today, nearly half of likely voters (4 7%) approve of thei r own representative ( 44 % disapprove ). Democrats (57 %) are more likely to approve of their own representative than are independents (44%) or Republicans (38%). Residents in the San Francisco Bay Area ( 55%) are the most likely to approve of their representative, followed by those in Los Angeles (5 1%) , Inland Empire (48%), Orange/San Diego (46%), and the Central Valley (37%). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way…?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind the U.S. Congress is handling its job Approve 24% 22 % 16 % 19 % 16 % Disapprove 68 72 80 74 79 Don ’t know 8 5 5 7 5 your own representative to the U.S. House of Representatives is handling his or her job Approve 48 57 38 44 47 Disapprove 39 35 52 44 44 Don ’t know 14 8 10 11 9 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 16 PPIC Statewide S urvey WATER POLICY At a time when water and the drought are of great concern, overwhelming majorities of Californians say the supply of water is a big problem ( 68%). This level of concern is at an all-time high this year ( 55% March, 59% May , 54% July, and 65% September). Those living in California’s inland areas (72%) are slightly more likely than those living in coastal areas ( 66%) to say water supply is a big problem. Moreover, r esidents in the Central Valley (7 9%), California’s primary agricultural region, are the most likely to say that the supply of water in their area is big problem , followed by those in Orange/San Diego (70%), Los Angeles (65%), the San Francisco Bay Area ( 65%), and the Inland Empire (63%). Across racial/ethnic groups, whites (76%) are more likely than blacks (68%) or Latinos (64 %) to say water supply is a big problem . Women (72 %) are somewhat more likely than men (64%) to hold this view. The perception that the supply of water is a big problem is more widely held among older, more educated, and more affluent Californians than others. “Would you say that the supply of water is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem in your part of California?” All adults Region Inland/Coastal Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Inland Coastal Big problem 68% 79 % 65 % 65 % 70 % 63 % 72 % 66 % Somewhat of a problem 17 11 22 17 18 18 14 19 Not much of a problem 13 7 13 17 12 17 12 14 Don’t know 1 3 1 1 – 2 2 1 A vast majority of Californians are following the news about the drought either very closely (50 %) or fairly closely (32%) ; far f ewer say not too closely (1 3%) or not at all closely ( 4%). With reports that drought conditions are not expected to abate during the upcoming winter, do Californians think their state and local governments are doing enough to respond to current conditions? A solid majority of Californians (5 7%) think their state and local governments are not doing enough, a small minority (5%) say that they are doing too much, and three in 10 (3 1%) say they are doing the right amount. Residents of the Central Valley and Orange/San Diego (62% each ) are slightly more li kely than residents in Los Angeles (56%), the Inland Empire (55%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (5 3%) to say governments are not doing enough. Across racial/ethnic groups, blacks (75%) are much more likely to hold this view than whites (60%) and Latinos (54%). The opinion that governments are not doing enough is higher among Californians age 18 to 34 (62 %) than it is among those age 35 to 54 (53%) or those older than 55 (5 8%). Among those who consider their regional water supply to be a big problem, 62 percent say their state and local government s are not doing enough. “Overall, do you think that the state and local governments are doing too much, the right amount, or not enough to respond to the current drought in California?” All adults Region Inland/Coastal Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Inland Coastal Too much 5% 4 % 6 % 6 % 5 % 5 % 4 % 6 % The right amount 31 23 36 32 27 34 28 32 Not enough 57 62 53 56 62 55 59 57 Don’t know 7 11 5 6 6 6 9 6 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 17 PPIC Statewide S urvey STATE BUDGET SITUATI ON A majority of Californians (54%) and likely voters ( 62%) say that the state budget situation in California is a big problem today. Two years ago, 70 percent of adults and 80 percent of likely voters said that the state budget situation was a big problem. This view was even more widespread in September 2010 (80% adults, 90% likely voters). Today, R epublicans (76%) are much more likely than independents ( 65%) or Democrats (48 %) to say the state budget situation is a big problem. San Francisco Bay Area (46 %) residents are less likely to think that it is a big problem than residents elsewhere (55 % Orange/San Diego, 55 % Los Angeles, 56% Inland Empire, 62% Central Valley). At least half of men (50 %) and women (57 %), as well as homeowners (57 %) and renters (50%), regard the state budget situation as a big problem. Whites (60%) are more likely than blacks (53%) or Latinos (48%) to hold this view. About three in four of those who expect bad times financially in the next 12 months (73%), and who perceive that the state is currently going in the wrong direction (7 5%), say that the state budget situation in California is a big problem today. “Do you think the state budget situation in California—that is, the balance between government spending and revenues—is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Big problem 54% 48 % 76 % 65 % 62 % Somewhat of a problem 33 42 17 29 29 Not a problem 7 7 4 4 6 Don’t know 6 3 3 2 3 The fiscal reform concept behind Proposition 2— increasing the size of the state’s rainy day fund and requiring above -average revenues to be deposited into it —has majority support among all adults (5 6%) and likely voters (5 5%). This concept has been supported by at least 70 percent of Californians since we first asked this question in May 2010 (74% May 2010, 73% January 2011, 70% May 2011, 72% December 2012, and 73% January 2014). Today, majorities of Democrats (5 8%) and independents (5 2%) and 49 percent of Republicans say they favor it. At least half across age, education, income, racial/ethnic , and regional groups are in favor of this proposal. Of those who say the state budget situation is a big problem today, 52 percent support this idea. Among the likely voters who say they will vote for Proposition 2, 7 0 percent are in favor of increasing the size of the rainy day fund. “Fiscal reforms have been proposed to address the structural issues in the state budget and local budget issues. Do you favor or oppose increasing the size of the state's rainy day fund and requiring above- average revenues to be deposited into it for use during economic downturns?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Favor 56% 58 % 49 % 52 % 55 % Oppose 29 30 33 33 30 Don’t know 15 12 17 15 15 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 18 PPIC Statewide S urvey PUBLIC SAFETY Although just 4 percent of C alifornians n ame crime, d rugs, and gangs a s the most important i ssue facing the state, n ine in 10 say t hat crime is a big problem ( 50%) or s omewhat of a problem (38%) i n California today. M ore Californians s aid crime was a b ig problem the f irst time w e asked t his question in May 19 98 (6 6% big pr oblem, 2 8% somewhat o f a problem). R esidents in the Central V alley (6 5%) are t he most l ikely t o view crime as a big problem , followed by those in th e Inland Empire (55%) , Los A ngeles (5 1%), the San Francisco Bay A rea (43%), and Orange/San Diego (3 8%). A cross p arties, R epublicans (63%) are more likel y than Democrats ( 52%) o r independents ( 46%) to s ay it is a big pr oblem. Blacks (62%) are more likely than Latinos (52%) or whites (53% ) to hold this view. Women (53% ) are slightly more likely than men (46% ) to hold this view. Younger Californians (3 8% age 18 to 34) are much less likely than older Californians (54% age 35 to 54; 58% age 55 and older) to view crime as a big problem. College graduates ( 38%) are much less likely than those with some college (54% ) or those with a high school education or less (54%) to hold this view. The perception of crime as a big problem is higher among those with annual household incomes of $40,000 or less (53% ) than among those with higher incomes (46% $40,000 to $ 80,000; 45% $80,000 or more). “In your opinion, how much of a problem is crime in California today? Is it a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem?” All adults Region Likely voters Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Big problem 50% 65% 43% 51% 38% 55% 54% Somewhat of a problem 38 27 41 38 49 36 33 Not much of a problem 11 7 14 11 13 9 12 Don’t know 1 1 1 – 1 – 1 C orrection s realignment began in October 2011 when some of the state’s lower -risk inmates were shifted from state prisons to county jails. How much confidence do Californians have in their local government’s ability to take on the responsibilities of corrections real ignment? About half of Californians are very (12 %) or somewhat confident (36 %) in their local government ’s ability to hand le this responsibility, while about half say they are not too ( 26%) or not at all confident (22 %). This confidence level was similar in September 2013 (40%), but was higher in September 2011 (48%), December 2011 (53%), January 2012 (50%), and January 2013 (49%). Confidence is somewhat higher in the Inland Empire (55%), Orange/San Diego ( 55%), and the San Francisco Bay Area ( 55%) than in Los Angeles (4 7%) and the Central Valley (37 %). Confidence is higher among Democrats ( 54%) and independents (50%) than among or Republicans (3 7%). “As you may know, state funding is being provided to shift some of the lower- risk inmates from state prisons to county jails to reduce prison overcrowding and lower state costs. How confident are you that your local government is able to take on this responsibility?” All adults Region Likely voters Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Very confident 12% 9% 11% 13% 13% 16% 13% Somewhat confident 36 28 44 34 42 39 33 Not too confident 26 33 24 27 23 17 29 Not at all confident 22 26 18 23 19 26 23 Don’t know 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 19 PPIC Statewide S urvey HEALTH CARE REFORM Californians continue to be closely divided on the federal health care reform law: 4 6 percent have a generally favorable opinion and 44 percent have a generally unfavorable one. Results are similar to those from December 2013, and the Ja nuary, March, May, and September surveys of this year. According to a September Kaiser Family Foundation poll, adults nationally are less likely to hold a favorable view of the health care law than Californians are (35% nationally, 46% California). The par tisan divide persists on this issue : a majority of Democrats (6 8%) say they have a generally favorable view of this law, a majority of Republicans (77 %) say they have a generally unfavorable view . Independents are equally divided (47 % favorable, 47% unfavorable ). Favorable views about the law are higher among college graduates (52%) than among those with some college ( 40%) or a high school education or less (46%). Similarly, residents earning more than $80,000 annually (52 %) are slightly more likely to have a favorable view than residents in lower income brackets (45 % $40,000 to $80,000, and 47 % $40,000 or less). As the second period of enrollment for the Affordable Care Act is set to begin, uninsured Californians are divided in their opinion of the law (47% favorable, 43% unfavorable) , as are those who have health insurance (4 7% favorable, 4 3% unfavorable). “As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it?” All adults Party Have health insurance Dem Rep Ind Yes No Generally favorable 46% 68 % 15 % 47 % 47 % 42 % Generally unfavorable 44 23 77 47 43 47 Don’t know 11 9 9 6 10 11 A plurality of Californians say the health care law will not make much difference (39%) in the long run, while about one in three say it will either be good (29%) or bad (28%) for them and their families. Similarly, among likely voters, 35 percent say it w ill not make much difference, while about one in three says it will either be good (29%) or bad (33 %). Findings were similar in March ( 34% good, 26 % bad, 36 % would not make much difference) . D ifferences exist across political parties : Democrats are far mor e likely (4 6%) than Republicans ( 6%) or independents (23 %) to say it will be good in the long run. Across racial/ethnic groups, blacks (45 %), and Latinos (32%) are more likely than whites (23 %) to hold an optimistic view . Residents in the San Francisco Ba y Area (35%) are the most likely —and those in the Central Valley (20%) are the least likely —to think the law will be good in the long run. In a similar question asked by the Pew Research Center in September among adults nationwide, 27 percent said the over all effect of the health care law over the coming years would be mostly positive, 38 percent said mostly negative, and 33 percent said it would not have much of an effect. “In the long run, do you think the health care law will be good or bad for you and your family, or won’t it make much difference?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Good 29% 46 % 6 % 23 % 29 % Bad 28 12 61 27 33 Won’t make much difference 39 37 31 45 35 Don’t know 4 4 1 5 3 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 20 PPIC Statewide S urvey PARTY PERCEPTIONS Californians are divided in their impressions of the Democratic Party (46% favorable, 4 3% unfavorable), but they are more likely to have an unfavorable view of the Republican Party (2 9% favorable, 59% unfavorable). Favorable impressions of both parties have declined since October 2012, when 58 percent of Californians had a positive view of the Democratic Party and 35 percent had a positive one of the Republican Party. In an October 2014 ABC/Washington Post poll among adults nationwide, at least half had an unfavorable impression of both the Democratic Party (39% favorable, 51% unfavorable) and the Republican Party (33% favorable, 56% unfavorable). Notably, Democrats are much more likely to have a favorable impres sion of the Democratic Party (73%), than Republicans are to have of the Republican Party (5 8%). A strong majority of independents (6 7%) have an unfavorable impression of the Republican Party and about half (5 2%) have an unfavorable impression of the Democr atic Party. While majorities of blacks ( 70%) and Latinos (55%) have a favorable impression of the Democratic Party, whites (3 5%) are less likely to share this view . One in three or fewer Latinos ( 29%) and white s (33 %) have a favorable impression of the Republican Party; even fewer blacks (20%) do so. “Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of…?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind the Democratic Party Favorable 46% 73 % 15 % 32 % 44 % Unfavorable 43 24 79 52 50 Don ’t know 10 3 6 15 6 the Republican Party Favorable 29 16 58 19 30 Unfavorable 59 79 33 67 64 Don ’t know 12 5 9 15 6 When asked if the Republican and Democratic parties do an adequate job representing the American people or whether they do such a poor job that a third party is needed, a majority of Californians (58 %) say there is a need for a third major party. O nly 29 percent of Californians believe that the Democratic and Republican parties are doing an adequate job —a decrease of 1 5 percentage points from October 2012 , when 44 percent said the two major parties did an adequate job. Independents (7 1%, up 1 2 points since October 2012) are much more likely than Republicans (59%) or Democrats (56%) to say that a third party is needed. A majority of Californians across age, gender, education, income, and regional groups believe in the need for a third party. In a September Gallup poll, the share of adults nationwide saying a third party is needed (58% , 35% adequate job) was identical to Californians in our survey today . “In your view, do the Republican and Democratic parties do an adequate job representing the American people, or do they do such a poor job that a third major party is needed?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Adequate job 29% 34 % 25 % 19 % 24 % Third party is needed 58 56 59 71 63 Don’t know 13 10 16 10 13 October 2014 Californians and Their Government 21 REGIONAL MAP October 2014 Californians and Their Government 22 METHODOLOGY The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance from Jui Shrestha , project manager for this survey, Dean Bonner, associate survey director, and survey research associates Renatta DeFever and Lunna Lopes . The Californians and Their Government series is supported with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. The PPIC Statewide Survey invites input, comments, and suggestions from polic y and public opinion experts and from its own advisory committee, but survey methods, questions, and content are determined solely by PPIC’s survey team. Findings in this report are based on a survey of 1,70 4 California adult residents, including 1,106 int erviewed on landline telephones and 598 interviewed on cell phones. Interviews took an average of 19 minutes to complete. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights from October 12–19, 2014. Landline interviews were conducted using a computer -generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible for selection, and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as six times t o increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Cell phone interviews w ere conducted using a computer -generated random sample of cell phone numbers. All cell phone numbers with California area codes were eligible for selection, and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as eight times to increase the likelihood of reaching an eligible respondent. Once a cell phone user was reached, it was verified that this person was age 18 or older, a resident of California, and in a safe place to continue the survey (e.g., not driving). Cell phone respondents were offered a smal l reimbursement to help defray the cost of the call. Cell phone interviews were conducted with adults who have cell phone service only and with those who have both cell phone and landline service in the h ousehold. Live landline and cell phone interviews w ere conducted by Abt SRBI, Inc., in English and Spanish, according to respondents’ preferences. Accent on Languages, Inc., translated new survey questions into Spanish. Abt SRBI uses the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2010– 2012 American Community Survey’s (ACS) Pub lic Use Microdata Series for California (with regional coding information from the University of Minnesota’s Integrated Public Use Microdata Series for California) to compare certain demographic characteristics of the survey sample— region, age, gender, race/ethnicity, and education —with the characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the ACS figures. To estimate landline and cell phone service in California, Abt SRBI used 2012 state -level estimates released by the National Center for Health Statistics —which used data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the ACS —and 2013 estimates for the West Census Region in the latest NHIS report. The estimates for California were then compared against landl ine and cell phone service reported in this survey. We also used voter registration data from the California Secretary of State to compare the party registration of registered voters in our sample to party registration statewide. The landline and cell phone samples were then integrated using a frame integration weight, while sample balancing adjusted for differences across regional, age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, telephone service, and party registration groups. October 2014 Californians and Their Government 23 PPIC Statewide Survey The sampling error, taking design effects from weighting into consideration, is ±3. 5 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total unweighted sample of 1,704 adults. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 3. 5 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for unweighted subgroups is larger: for the 1,281 registered voters, the sampling error is ±4. 1 percent; for the 976 likely voters, it is ±4.6 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to w hich surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. We present results for five geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “ Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, “Inland Empire” refers to Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, and “Orange/San Diego” refers to Orange and San Diego Counties. Residents of other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, likely voters, and primary likely voters, but sample sizes for these less populous areas are not large enough to report separately. In several places, we refer to coas tal and inland counties. The “ coastal” region refers to the counties along the California coast from Del Norte County to San Diego County and includes all the San Francisco Bay Area counties. All other counties are included in the “inland” region. We present specific results for non- Hispanic whites and also for Latinos, who account for about a third of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest -growing voter groups. We also present results for non -Hispanic blacks, who comprise about 6 percent of the state’s adult population. Results for other racial/ethnic groups —such as Asians and Nat ive Americans—are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, likely voters, but sample sizes are not large enough for separate anal ysis. We compare the opinions of those who report they are registered Democrats, registered Republicans, and decline -to -state or independent voters; the results for those who say they are registered to vote in other parties are not large enough for separat e analysis. We also analyze the responses of likely voters —so designated by their responses to voter registration survey questions, previous election participation, and current interest in politics. The percentages presented in the report tables and in the questionnaire may not add to 100 due to rounding. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey results to those in our earlier surveys and to those in national surveys by ABC News/Washington Post, CBS News , Gallup, Kaiser Family Foundation, NBC News/Wall Street Journal , and the Pew Research Center . A dditional details about our methodology can be found at www.ppic.org/content/other/SurveyMethodology.pdf and are available upon request through surveys@ppic.org . October 2014 Californians and Their Government 24 QUESTIONNAIRE AND RESULTS CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT October 12–19 , 2014 1,704 California Adult Residents: English, Spanish MARGIN OF ERROR ±3. 5% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMP LE PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100 D UE TO ROUNDING 1.First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today? [code, don’t read ] 29% jobs, economy 26 water, drought 6 education , schools, teachers 4 crime, gangs, drugs 4 health care, health reform, Obamacare 4 immigration, illegal immigration 4 state budget, deficit, taxes 3 environment, pollution, global warming 2 government in general 2 housing costs, availability 11 other 5 don’t know 2. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California? 50 % approve 28 disapprove 22 don’t know 3. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of th e wa y that the California Legislature is handling its job ? 41 % ap prove 42 disapprove 17 don’t know 4. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that the state legislators representing your assembly and senate districts ar e do ing at this time? 43 % approve 39 disapprove 18 don’t know 5. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or th e wr ong direction? 47 % right direction 46 wrong direction 7 don’t know 6. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 45 % good times 44 bad times 11 don’t know 7. Next, some people are registered to vot e an d others are not. Are you absolutel y cer tain that you are reg istered to vote in California? 66 % yes [ask q7 a] 34 no [skip to q 8e] O ctober 2014 Californians and Their Government 25 PPIC Statewide Survey 7a. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or are you registered as a decline -to -state or independent voter? 44 % Democrat [ask q 8] 28 Republican [ask q 8a] 5 another party (specify) [ask q9] 22 I ndependent [skip to q8b ] 8. Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 53 % strong 45 not very strong 2 don’t know [skip to q9] 8a. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 53 % strong 44 not very strong 3 don’t know [skip to q9] 8b. Would you join a political party if it was a good reflection of your political views or do you prefer to be unaffiliated with any specific party? 26 % join a political party 69 remain unaffiliated 5 don’t know 8c. And were you previously registered with a major party or have you always been a decline- to-state or independent voter? 35 % previously registered [ask q8d ] 62 always been a decline -to -state or independent voter [skip to q8e] 3 don’t know [skip to q8e ] 8d. And what party were you previously registered with? [code, don’t read ] 56% Republican Party 39 Democratic Party 1 other (specify) 4 don’t know 8e. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republ ican Party or Democratic Party? 24 % Republican Party 45 Democratic Party 22 neither (volunteered) 9 don’t know [questions 9 to 21 reported for likely voters] 9.[likely voters only] If the November 4th el ection for governor were being held today, would you vote for [rotate] (1) Jerry Brown, a De mocrat, [or] (2) Neel Kashkari a Republican? 52 % Jerry Brown, a Democrat 36 Neel Kashkari, a Republican 4 would not vote for governor (volunteered) 8 don’t know 10 . [likely voters only] How closely are you f ollowing news about candid ates for the 2014 governor’s election —very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 18 % very closely 34 f airly closely 34 not too closely 13 not at all closely 1 don’t know 11 . [likely voters only] In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for governor on November 4th? 52 % satisfied 37 not satisfied 12 don’t know October 2014 Californians and Their Government 26 PPIC Statewide Survey 12. If the 2014 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for [ rotate ] (1) (the Republican candidate ) [ or ] (2) (the Democratic candidate) in your district? [ If other/don’t know: “ As of today, do you lean more toward [ read in same order as above] (1) the Republican candidate [ or ] (2) the Democratic candidate? ”] 41% Rep/lean Rep 48 Dem/lean Dem 11 don’t know 13. If the 2014 election for the California State Assembly were being held today, would you vote for [ rotate ] (1) (the Republican candidate ) [ or ] (2) (the Democratic candidate) in your district? [ If other/don’t know: “ As of today, do you lean more toward [ read in same order as above] (1) the Republican candidate [ or ] (2) the Democratic candidate?” ] 40% Rep/lean Rep 48 Dem/lean Dem 1 other (specify) 11 don’t know Next, we have a few questions to ask you about some of the propositions on the November ballot. 14 . [likely voters only] Proposition 1 is called the “Water Bond. Funding for Water Quality, Supply, Treatment, and Storage Projects.” It authorizes $7.5 billion in general obligation bonds for state water supply infrastructure projects, including surface and groundwater storage, ecosystem and watershed protection and restoration, and drinking water protection. Fis cal impact is increased : state bond costs averaging $360 million annually over 40 years and local government savings for water -related projects, likely averaging a couple hundred million dollars annually over the next few decades. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 1? 56% yes 32 no 12 don’t know 15 . [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 1 — is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all impor tant? 54% very important 33 somewhat important 7 not too important 2 not at all important 3 don’t know 16 . [likely voters only] Proposition 2 is called the “State Budget. Budget Stabilization Account . Legislative Constitutional Amendment.” It requires annual transfer of state general fund revenues to budget stabilization account and requires half the revenues be used to repay state debts. It limits use of remaining funds to emergencies or budget deficits. Fiscal impact is long -term state sa vings from faster payment of existing debts and different levels of state budget reserves, depending on the economy and decisions by elected officials as well as smaller local reserves for some school districts. If the election were held today, would you v ote yes or no on Proposition 2? 49% yes 34 no 17 don’t know 1 7 . [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 2 —is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 33% very important 44 somewhat important 13 not too important 4 not at all important 7 don’t know October 2014 Californians and Their Government 27 PPIC Statewide Survey 18 . [likely voters only] Proposition 45 is called the “Healthcare Insurance. Rate Changes. Initiative Statute.” It requires the Insurance Commissioner’s a pproval before a health insurer can change its rates or anything else affecting the charges associated with health insurance. It provides for public notice, disclosure, and hearing, and subsequent judicial review , and exempts employer large group health pl ans. Fiscal impact is increased state administrative costs to regulate health insurance, likely not exceeding the low millions of dollars annually in most years, funded from fees paid by health insurance companies. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 45? 39% yes 46 no 15 don’t know 1 9 . [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 45— is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 53% very important 32 somewhat important 7 not too important 3 not at all important 5 don’t know 20 . [likely voters only] Proposition 47 is called the “Criminal Sentences. Misdemeanor Penalties. Init iative Statute. ” It requires a misdemeanor sentence in stead of a felony for certain drug and property offenses and is inapplicable to persons with prior conviction for serious or violent crime and registered sex offenders. Fiscal impact is state and county criminal justice savings potentially in the high hund reds of millions of dollars annually and state savings spent on school truancy and dropout prevention, mental health and substance abuse treatment, and victim services. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 47? 59% yes 29 no 12 don’t know 2 1 . [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 47— is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 49% very important 35 somewhat important 8 not too important 3 not at all important 5 don’t know 2 2 . Changing topics, do you think the state budget situation in California —that is, the balance between government spending and revenues —is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today? 54% big problem 33 somewhat of a problem 7 not a problem 6 don’t know October 2014 Californians and Their Government 28 PPIC Statewide Survey 23 . Fiscal reforms have been proposed to address the structural issues in the state budget and local budget issues. Do you favor or oppose increasing the size of the state's rainy day fund and requiring above - average revenues to be deposited into it for use during economic downturns? 56% favor 29 oppose 15 don’t know Changing topics, 2 4 . Would you say that the supply of water is a big problem, som ewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem in your part of California? 68% big problem 17 somewhat of a problem 13 not much of a problem 1 don’t know 25. How closely are you following news about the current drought in California —very closely, fair ly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 50% very closely 32 fairly closely 13 not too closely 4 not at all closely 1 don’t know 25a. Overall, do you think that the state and local governments are doing too much, the right amount, or not enough to respond to the current drought in California? 5% too much 31 the right amount 57 not enough 7 don’t know Next, 2 6 . In your opinion, how much of a problem is crime in California today? Is it a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem? 50% big problem 38 somewhat of a problem 11 not much of a problem 1 don’t know 2 7 . As you may know, state funding is being provided to shift some of the lower -risk inmates from state prisons to county jails to reduce prison overcrowding and lower state costs. How confident are you that your local government is able to take on this responsibility? Are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident? 12% very confident 36 somewhat confident 26 not too conf ident 22 not at all confident 3 don’t know On another topic, 28 . Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president of the United States? 49% approve 46 disapprove 5 don’t know 29 . Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job? 24% approve 68 disapprove 8 don’t know 3 0 . Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the U.S. House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job? 48% approve 39 disapprove 14 don’t know Next, 3 1 . As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a [ rotate ] (1) [generally favorable] [or ] (2) [generally unfavorable] opinion of it? 46% generally favorable 44 generally unfavorable 11 don’t know October 2014 Californians and Their Government 29 PPIC Statewide Survey 32 . In the long run, do you think the health care law will be [ rotate ] (1) [good] [or ] (2) [bad] for you and your family, or won’t it make much difference? 29% good 28 bad 39 won’t make much difference 4 don’t know Changing topics, [rotate questions 33 and 33a] 33 . Do you favor or oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to be legally married? 56% favor 36 oppose 8 don’t know 3 3 a. In general, do you think the use of marijuana should be legal, or not? 51% yes, legal 44 no, not legal 5 don’t know Next , [ rotate questions 34 and 35] 34 . Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of the Democratic Party? 46% favorable 43 unfavorable 10 don’t know 35 . Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of the Republican Party? 29% favorable 59 unfavorable 12 don’t know 36 . In your view, do the Republican and Democratic parties do an adequate job representing the American people, or do they do such a poor job that a third major party is needed? 29% adequate job 58 third party is needed 13 don’t know Changing topics, 37 . W here do you get most of your information about what’s going on in politics today — from [ rotate ] television, newspapers, radio, the Internet, magazines, or talking to other people? 38% television [ask q37a ] 32 Internet [skip to q37c ] 10 newspapers [skip to q37b] 9 radio [skip to q37d ] 8 talking to other people [skip to q37d ] 1 magazines [skip to q37d ] 1 other (specify) [skip to q37d ] 1 don't know [skip to q37d ] 37a. Would th at be mostly major network TV, mostly local TV, or mostly cable news stations such as CNN, Fox, or MSNBC? 21% major network TV 27 local TV 48 cable TV 1 other (specify) 2 don’t know [skip to q 37 d] 37 b. Do you mostly read the paper version of newspapers, or do you mostly read newspapers online? 66% paper version 34 online version [ skip to q37 d] 37 c. Do you mostly read the websites of newspapers or mostly other types of news websites? 29% websites of newspapers 67 other types of news w ebsites 4 don’t know October 2014 Californians and Their Government 30 PPIC Statewide Survey 37 d.Do you ever go online to get news and information on California politics and elections? (I f yes: Do you do this often or only sometimes?) 18% yes, often 34 yes, sometimes 48 no 1 not applicable/don’t use the Internet (volunteered) 3 8 . Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 13% very liberal 20 somewhat liberal 28 middle -of -the -road 23 somewhat conservative 12 very conservative 3 don’t know 39 . Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics —a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 23% great deal 37 fair amount 33 only a little 7 none 1 don’t know 40. [likely voters only] Thinking about the November 4 th election, are y ou more enthusiastic about voting than usual, or less enthusiastic? 40% more enthusiastic 42 less enthusiastic 15 same/neither (volunteered) 3 don’t know October 2014 Californians and Their Government 31 PPIC Statewide Survey [d1 to d5: dem ographic questions] D6. Are you, yourself, now covered by any form of health insurance or health plan or do you not have health insurance at this time? D6a. Which of the following is your main source of health insurance coverage? Is it a plan through your e mployer, a plan through your spouse’s employer, a plan you purchased yourself either from an insurance company or the state or federal marketplace, are you covered by Medicare or Medi -Cal, or do you get your health insurance from somewhere else? 81% yes, covered by health insurance 26 through employer 14 Medi -Cal 13 Medicare 10 through spouse’s employer 9 self-purchased plan [ask d6b] 4 through parents/mother/ father (volunteered ) 4 somewhere else (specify) 1 other government plan (vol unteered ) 18 not insured 2 don’t know/refused D6 b. [of those who purchased a plan themselves] Did you purchase your plan directly from an insurance company, from the marketplace known as healthcare.gov or Covered California, or through an insurance agent or broker? ( if agent or broker: Do you know if the plan you purchased through a broker was a plan from the state or federal health insurance marketplace known as healthcare.gov or Covered California, or was it a plan purchased directly from an insurance company and not through an exchange or marketplace? ) 41 % from an insurance company, either directly or through a broker 52 from healthcare.gov/ Covered California, either directly or through a broker 8 don’t know/refused Summary of D6, D6a, D6b 81% yes, covered by health insurance 26 through employer 14 Medi -Cal 13 Medicare 10 through spouse’s em ployer 9 se lf -purchased plan 4 from an insurance company, either directly or through a broker 5 from healthcare.gov/ Covered California, either directly or through a broker 1 don’t know 4 through parents/mother/ father (volunteered) 4 somewhere else (specify) 1 other government plan (volunteered) 18 not insured 2 don’t know/refused [d7 to d17: demographic questions] October 2014 Californians and Their Government 32 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect Angela Blackwell Founder and CEO PolicyLink Mollyann Brodie Senior Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Bill Lane Center for the American West Stanford University Jon Cohen Vice President of Survey Research SurveyMonkey Joshua J. Dyck Co-Director Center for Public Opinion University of Massachusetts, Lowell Russell Hancock President and CEO Joint Venture Silicon Valley Network Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Robert Lapsley President California Business Roundtable Carol S. Larson President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Monica Lozano Chairman US Hispanic Media, Inc. Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Lisa Pitney Vice President, Government Relations The Walt Disney Company Robert K. Ross, M.D. President and CEO The California Endowment Most Reverend Jaime Soto Bishop of Sacramento Roman Catholic Diocese of Sacramento Carol Whiteside President Emeritus Great Valley Center The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PPIC BOARD OF DIRECTORS Donna Lucas, Chair Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Mark Baldassare President and CEO Public Policy Institute of California Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect María Blanco Vice President, Civic Engagement California Community Foundation Brigitte Bren Attorney Louise Henry Bryson Chair Emerita, Board of Trustees J. Paul Getty Trust Walter B. Hewlett Member, Board of Directors The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Phil Isenberg Vice Chair, Delta Stewardship Council Mas Masumoto Author and F armer Steven A. Merksamer Senior Partner Nielsen, Merksamer, Parrinello, Gross & Leoni , LLP Kim Polese Chairman ClearStreet, Inc. Thomas C. Sutton Retired Chairman and CEO Pacific Life Insurance Company The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research on major economic, social, and political issues. The institute’s goal is to raise public awareness and to give elected representatives and other decision makers a more informed basis for developing policies and programs. The institute’s research focuses on the underlying forces shaping California’s future, cutting across a wide range of public policy concerns, including economic development, education, environment and resources, governance, population, public finance, and social and health policy. PPIC is a public charity . It does not take or support positions on any ballot measures or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. PPIC was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. Mark Baldassare is President and CEO of PPIC. Donna Lucas is Chair of the Board of Directors. Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source and the copyright notice below is included. Copyright © 201 4 Public Policy Institute of California All rights reserved. San Francisco, CA PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, California 94111 phone: 415.291.4400 fax: 415.291.4401 PPIC SACRAMENTO CENT ER Senator Office Building 1121 L Street, Suite 801 Sacramento, California 95814 phone: 916.440.1120 fax: 916.440.1121 www.ppic.org survey@ppic.org" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 09:42:13" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(9) "s_1014mbs" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:42:13" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 09:42:13" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["guid"]=> string(51) "http://148.62.4.17/wp-content/uploads/S_1014MBS.pdf" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_mime_type"]=> string(15) "application/pdf" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" ["status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["attachment_authors"]=> bool(false) }