Donate
Independent, objective, nonpartisan research

PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government, October 2018

Database

This is the content currently stored in the post and postmeta tables.

View live version

object(Timber\Post)#3711 (44) { ["ImageClass"]=> string(12) "Timber\Image" ["PostClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Post" ["TermClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Term" ["object_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["custom"]=> array(5) { ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(38) "ppic-statewide-survey-october-2018.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(7) "2042309" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(74106) "PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Californians & Their Government Mark Baldassare Dean Bonner Alyssa Dykman Lunna Lopes CONTENTS Press Release 2018 California Election State and National Issues Regional Map Methodology Questionnaire and Results 3 6 12 20 21 23 Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle The PPIC Statewide Survey provides a voice for the public and likely voters— informing policymakers, encouraging discussion, and raising awareness on critical issues of the day. © 2018 Public Policy Institute of California The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. PPIC is a public charity. It does not take or support positions on any ballot measures or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source. Research publications reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or of the staff, officers, advisory councils, or board of directors of the Public Policy Institute of California. PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY News Release OCTOBER 2018 CONTACT Abby Cook 415-291-4436 EMBARGOED: Do not publish or broadcast until 9:00 p.m. PDT on Wednesday, October 24, 2018. Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: www.ppic.org/press-release/ PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT Newsom, Feinstein Lead—Gas Tax Repeal, Rent Control Lag DEMOCRATS MORE LIKELY THAN REPUBLICANS TO BE ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT VOTING FOR CONGRESS SAN FRANCISCO, October 24, 2018—In the closing weeks of the fall campaign, Gavin Newsom holds an 11 point lead among likely voters in the governor’s race and Dianne Feinstein is ahead by 16 points in the US Senate election. Two closely watched ballot measures—one to repeal the recent gas tax increase and another to expand local authority to enact rent control—are trailing. These are among the key findings of a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC). Democrat Newsom leads Republican John Cox among likely voters 49 percent to 38 percent, with 10 percent undecided. A large majority of Democratic likely voters (83%) favor Newsom, and a similar majority of Republicans (82%) support Cox. Independents are divided (43% Cox, 38% Newsom). Across racial/ ethnic groups, white likely voters are divided (45% Newsom, 45% Cox), while Latinos favor Newsom (65% to 23%). Likely voters in other racial/ethnic groups prefer Newsom by 25 points. (Sample sizes for Asian American and African American likely voters are too small for separate analysis.) Most likely voters (68%) say they are following news about the candidates at least fairly closely. And most (60%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in this race, with satisfaction higher among Democrats and Newsom supporters. US Senate: Feinstein Ahead by Double Digits Senator Dianne Feinstein, seeking her fifth US Senate term, leads fellow Democrat Kevin de León 43 percent to 27 percent, with a quarter of likely voters (23%) saying they will not vote in this race and 8 percent undecided. Democratic likely voters favor Feinstein three to one (66% to 22%). Half of Republicans (51%) and 22 percent of independents say they will not vote in the US Senate election. When those who say they would not vote are excluded, Feinstein leads by 20 points (55% to 35%). Feinstein leads among white likely voters (41% to 27%), Latino likely voters (45% to 34%), and likely voters in other racial/ethnic groups (50% to 19%). Feinstein leads by 27 points among women (50% to 23%), while men are divided (35% Feinstein, 31% de León). Likely voters age 45 and older prefer Feinstein (47% to 26%), while those age 18 to 44 are divided (34% Feinstein, 30% de León). About half of likely voters (53%) are satisfied with their choice of candidates in this race between two Democrats. A strong majority of Democrats (79%) are satisfied, compared to 40 percent of independents and 28 percent of Republicans. “Gavin Newsom and Dianne Feinstein continue to hold significant leads over their challengers as the governor’s and Senate races enter the final stretch,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 3 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Gas Tax Repeal: 41 Percent Would Vote for Proposition 6 Proposition 6 would repeal the fuel taxes and vehicle fees enacted last year. When read the ballot title and label of the measure, 48 percent of likely voters would vote no, compared to 41 percent who would vote yes and 11 percent who are undecided. Findings were similar in September (52% no, 39% yes, 8% undecided). Today, a slim majority of Republican likely voters (53%) and about half of independents (49%) would vote yes, while fewer Democrats (28%) would do so. Regionally, support for repeal is highest in Orange/San Diego (52%) and lowest in the Central Valley and the San Francisco Bay Area (36% each). Fewer than half across all demographic groups say they support the measure. Asked about the importance of the outcome of the vote on Proposition 6, 46 percent of likely voters say it is very important to them (35% somewhat important). Among those who favor repealing the gas tax increase, 57 percent say the outcome is very important. Among those who would vote no, 43 percent say the outcome is very important. If Proposition 6 passes, revenue from fuel and license fee increases that is now expected to fund transportation infrastructure projects would be eliminated. When likely voters are asked about traffic congestion on freeways and major roads, most (66%) say it is a big problem in their region. Rent Control: Proposition 10 Loses Ground Proposition 10 would expand the authority of local governments to enact rent control. When read the ballot title and label of this measure, 60 percent of likely voters would vote no, while 25 percent would vote yes and 15 percent are undecided. Opposition to Proposition 10 has increased since September (48% no, 36% yes, 16% undecided). Today, majorities across parties would vote no on the measure. Across all regions, less than a third of likely voters say they will vote yes. Although renters are more likely than homeowners to support Proposition 10 (34% to 22%), majorities in both groups would vote no if the election were held today. Indeed, majorities across all demographic groups would vote no. When they are asked about the importance of Proposition 10, 46 percent of likely voters say the outcome of the vote is very important to them. Those who would vote yes are about as likely as those who would vote no to say that the outcome of the vote is very important. When likely voters are asked more generally about housing affordability, 66 percent say it is a big problem in their part of the state. Those who say they would vote yes on Proposition 10 are more likely than opponents to say that housing affordability is a big problem (73% to 62%). “While most say that housing affordability is a problem, Proposition 10 trails,” Baldassare said. “Only half say the outcome of this ballot measure is very important to them.” Congress: Majority Favor Democratic Candidates for House As both parties focus on which one will control Congress, half of California likely voters say they are extremely enthusiastic (25%) or very enthusiastic (28%) about voting in congressional races this year. Democratic likely voters (67%) are more apt to say they are very or extremely enthusiastic than Republicans (45%) and independents (42%) are. If the election for the House of Representatives were held today, a majority of likely voters (55%) say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate, and 37 percent would vote for or lean toward the Republican. Partisan likely voters support the candidate from their own party, while independents are divided. In districts held by a Democratic representative, likely voters prefer the Democratic candidate by a 30 point margin (60% to 30%). In districts held by a Republican, likely voters prefer the Republican candidate by 15 points (55% to 40%). In the 11 districts deemed competitive by the Cook Political Report, likely voters are divided (49% Republican candidate, 44% Democratic candidate). Nine of these seats are now held by Republicans. (For more information, see page 22 of the PPIC survey report.) PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 4 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 The PPIC survey asks if it is more important that candidates for Congress work with the Trump administration or push back. Likely voters are divided: 45 percent prefer working with the administration and 48 percent prefer pushing back. Few Approve of Congress or the Senate Vote to Confirm Kavanaugh When California likely voters are asked about their current leaders, half (50%) approve of Governor Jerry Brown; his approval ratings were similar in September 2017 (55%).The state legislature’s approval rating among likely voters is 43 percent. President Trump’s approval rating—39 percent among likely voters today—was similar when he took office in January 2017 (34%). Just 20 percent of California likely voters approve of the way Congress is doing its job. Asked about the US Senate’s vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh’s appointment to the Supreme Court, a majority of likely voters (56%) disapprove. Most Have Bad Impression of Major Parties Asked for their impressions of the major political parties, fewer than half of likely voters have a favorable view of the Democratic Party (41%) and fewer than a third have a favorable impression of the Republican Party (31%). Notably, the favorability of the Democratic Party was somewhat higher in October 2016 (50%) before the last statewide election, while the favorability of the Republican Party was somewhat lower (24%). One finding has changed little: most likely voters say the parties do such a poor job that a third major party is needed (61% today, 62% October 2016). Baldassare said: “As likely voters ponder who they should elect to represent them in Washington, views about the major political parties and Congress are in negative territory.” As the election nears, likely voters are conflicted about the state of the nation. About half are feeling optimistic about the economy—47 percent expect good economic times in California in the next year, and 53 percent expect good economic times in the nation. In contrast, just 38 percent say that things in the United States are generally going in the right direction. ACA Gets Favorable Marks, Border Wall Does Not The survey asks likely voters about three key national issues:  Majority view Affordable Care Act favorably: 53 percent of likely voters hold a generally favorable view of the health reform law and 43 percent view it unfavorably. A solid majority (59%) say it is the responsibility of the federal government to make sure all Americans have health care coverage. Likely voters are divided on whether health insurance should be provided through a single national insurance system (28%) or through a mix of private insurance and government programs (27%). Baldassare summed up: “Most California likely voters think that the federal government should be responsible for providing health coverage for all, while less than a third favor a single-payer system.”  Two-thirds oppose building a border wall: 65 percent of likely voters oppose building a wall along the entire border with Mexico. As the US Department of Justice pursues a lawsuit against California over three immigration laws the state enacted, the survey asks whether California should make its own policies to protect the rights of undocumented immigrants. A slim majority of likely voters (52%) say it should and 44 percent say no.  Most want stricter gun laws: A majority of likely voters (59%) say laws covering the sale of guns should be stricter, while 18 percent say laws should be less strict and 22 percent favor keeping gun laws the way they are. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 5 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY 2018 California Election OCTOBER 2018 Key Findings  In the closing weeks of the governor’s race, Gavin Newsom has an 11 point lead over John Cox. Six in ten likely voters are satisfied with their choices of candidates, with Democrats slightly more likely to be satisfied than Republicans. (page 7)  In the US Senate election, Senator Dianne Feinstein has a 16 point lead over Kevin de León. One in four likely voters—including half of Republicans—volunteer that they would not vote in this race. Half of likely voters are satisfied with their choices of candidates, with Democrats far more likely than Republicans to be satisfied. (page 8)  Half of likely voters are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting in congressional races this year. Fifty-five percent of likely voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their House of Representatives election. When it comes to candidates for Congress, likely voters are divided on whether it’s more important to work with (45%) or push back against (48%) the Trump administration. (page 9)  Forty-one percent of likely voters would vote yes on Proposition 6 (repeal gas tax increase) and 48 percent would vote no. Forty-six percent of likely voters say the outcome of the vote on Proposition 6 is very important, with yes voters 14 points more likely than no voters to say this. (page 10)  Twenty-five percent of likely voters would vote yes on Proposition 10 (expand rent control authority) and 60 percent would vote no. Forty-six percent of likely voters say the outcome of the vote on Proposition 10 is very important, with yes and no voters similarly likely to say this. (page 11) Percent likely voters Percent likely voters Percent likely voters 2018 gubernatorial election 100 Gavin Newsom John Cox 80 Would not vote for governor (vol) Don’t know 60 51 39 40 49 38 20 7 3 0 September 10 2 October 2018 US Senate election 100 80 Dianne Feinstein Kevin de León Would not vote for US senator (vol) Don’t know 60 40 40 29 23 20 8 43 27 23 8 0 September October Support for November 2018 ballot measures 100 Prop 6: Repeal gas tax increase Prop 10: Expand 80 rent control authority 60 40 39 36 20 41 25 0 September October PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 6 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Gubernatorial Election In the closing weeks of the governor’s race, nearly seven in ten likely voters are following news about the candidates very (28%) or fairly (40%) closely. Attention to news is higher than in September (21% very, 41% fairly) but is lower than in October 2010 (39% very, 50% fairly)—when California had partisan primaries and an open gubernatorial election featuring Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman. In the gubernatorial election, Democrat Gavin Newsom has an 11 point lead over Republican John Cox (49% to 38%) among likely voters, with 10 percent undecided. Newsom held a similar lead in September (51% to 39%) but had a larger lead in July (55% to 31%). Today, 83 percent of Democrats support Newsom and 82 percent of Republicans support Cox. Independents are divided (43% Cox, 38% Newsom) with 14 percent undecided. Newsom leads Cox by 42 points among Latino likely voters (65% to 23%), while white likely voters are divided (45% Newsom, 45% Cox). Likely voters in other racial/ethnic groups prefer Newsom by 25 points. (Sample sizes for Asian American and African American likely voters are too small for separate analysis.) Across regions, Newsom has majority support among likely voters in Los Angeles (55%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (54%), while Cox leads in the Inland Empire (50% Cox, 41% Newsom). Likely voters are divided in the Central Valley (45% Cox, 44% Newsom) and Orange/San Diego (44% Cox, 49% Newsom). Women favor Newsom over Cox by 26 points (56% to 30%), while men are divided (48% Cox, 42% Newsom). Newsom leads Cox among likely voters age 18 to 44 (48% to 39%), those age 45 and older (50% to 38%), those without a college degree (47% to 39%), and college graduates (53% to 37%). “If the November 6 election for governor were being held today, would you vote for John Cox, a Republican, or Gavin Newsom, a Democrat?” Likely voters only All likely voters Gavin Newsom, a Democrat 49% Dem 83% Party Rep 11% Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups 38% 65% 45% 52% John Cox, a Republican Would not vote for governor (volunteered) Don’t know 38 2 10 7 82 43 23 1 15 1 10 6 14 11 45 2 7 27 4 17 Six in ten likely voters (60%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the election for governor, while one in three are not satisfied (32%)—similar to the September PPIC survey (59% satisfied, 32% not satisfied). Satisfaction was slightly lower in October 2014 (52%) and much lower in October 2010 (42%). Today, satisfaction is slightly higher among Democrats (69%) and Newsom supporters (72%) than among Republicans (62%) and Cox supporters (55%). Independent likely voters are divided. Satisfaction is highest among likely voters in the Central Valley (64%), followed by Los Angeles (59%), the San Francisco Bay Area (59%), Orange/San Diego (58%), and the Inland Empire (53%). At least half of likely voters across age, education, income, and racial/ethnic groups are satisfied with their choices of candidates. “In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for governor on November 6?” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups Satisfied 60% 69% 62% 47% 59% 62% 56% Not satisfied 32 24 30 43 30 31 35 Don’t know 8 6 8 10 11 7 9 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 7 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 US Senate Election In the US Senate election, Dianne Feinstein—who is seeking her fifth full term as US Senator—leads fellow Democrat Kevin de León by 16 points (43% to 27%) among likely voters, with 23 percent reporting that they will not vote for US senator and 8 percent undecided. Feinstein held a similar lead in the September PPIC survey (40% to 29%) but had a larger lead in the July PPIC survey (46% to 24%). Today, Feinstein is favored over de León among Democrats by a three-to-one margin. Half of Republicans and one in five independents say they would not vote for US senator. Feinstein leads de León by 20 points (55% to 35%) when we exclude the 23 percent who volunteer they would not vote for either candidate. Feinstein is favored over de León among likely voters in the Central Valley (40% to 27%), Los Angeles (49% to 26%), Orange/San Diego (40% to 30%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (46% to 27%), while those in the Inland Empire (36% Feinstein, 30% de León) are divided. Feinstein leads de León among white likely voters (41% to 27%), Latinos (45% to 34%), and those in other racial/ethnic groups (50% to 19%). Feinstein leads de León by 27 points among women (50% to 23%), while men are divided (35% Feinstein, 31% de León). Likely voters age 45 and older favor Feinstein over de León by 21 points (47% to 26%), while those age 18 to 44 are divided (34% Feinstein, 30% de León). Newsom’s supporters favor Feinstein over de León (63% to 28%), while half of Cox’s supporters (50%) say they will not vote in the US Senate election between two Democrats. “If the November 6 election for the US Senate were being held today, would you vote for Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat, or Kevin de León, a Democrat?” Likely voters only Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat All likely voters 43% Dem 66% Party Rep 14% Ind 39% Latinos 45% Race/Ethnicity Whites 41% Other groups 50% Kevin de León, a Democrat 27 22 28 31 34 Would not vote for US senator (volunteered) 23 5 51 22 11 Don’t know 8 77 8 10 27 26 6 19 20 12 Half of likely voters (53%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the US Senate election—similar to our findings in September (55%). Satisfaction today is similar to that in October 2016 (51%), shortly before Senator Kamala Harris defeated fellow Democrat Loretta Sanchez, but is slightly lower than in October 2010 (62%), shortly before Senator Barbara Boxer defeated Republican Carly Fiorina. (We did not survey Feinstein’s 2012 reelection bid). Today, a strong majority of Democrats (79%) are satisfied, compared to four in ten independents (40%) and three in ten Republicans (28%). Satisfaction is highest in Los Angeles (55%). More than half across education and racial/ethnic groups say they are satisfied. Among those who are satisfied, Feinstein leads de León by 34 points (59% to 25%). Among those who are not satisfied, 40 percent say they would not vote for US senator (22% would vote for Feinstein, 32% for de León). “In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for US Senate on November 6?” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups Satisfied 53% 79% 28% 40% 64% 51% 54% Not satisfied 39 14 64 51 26 44 31 Don’t know 8 8 8 9 10 5 14 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 8 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Congressional Elections Whether or not Democrats take control of the US Congress is a major plotline in the 2018 election. Half of likely voters (53%) say they are extremely (25%) or very enthusiastic (28%) about voting in congressional races this year—similar to our findings in May (46%). According to an October CNN poll, registered voters nationwide (33% extremely, 22% very) are somewhat more likely than registered voters in our survey (21% extremely, 24% very) to be enthusiastic. Among California likely voters, Democrats (67%) are more likely than Republicans (45%) and independents (42%) to be at least very enthusiastic about voting in races for Congress this year. If the 2018 election for the US House of Representatives were held today, a majority of likely voters (55%) would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate, while 37 percent would vote for or lean toward the Republican candidate. The Democratic candidate was preferred by similar margins in our September survey (54% to 37%) and our May survey (52% to 38%). Findings among registered voters (57% Democratic candidate, 35% Republican candidate) are similar to nationwide findings in an October ABC News/ Washington Post poll (53% Democratic candidate, 42% Republican candidate). Most partisan likely voters would support their own party, while independents are more divided. Democratic candidates are preferred by a 30 point margin (60% to 30%) in Democratic-held districts, while Republican candidates are preferred by a 15 point margin (55% to 40%) in Republican-held districts. In the 11 California districts deemed competitive by the Cook Political Report, likely voters are divided (49% Republican candidate, 44% Democratic candidate). (Nine of these seats are currently held by Republicans; for more information see page 22). The Democratic candidate is preferred by large margins in Los Angeles (62% to 30%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (60% to 28%), and by narrower margins in Orange/San Diego (53% to 42%). The Republican candidate is preferred by narrower margins in the Inland Empire (50% to 45%); those in the Central Valley (47% Democratic candidate, 46% Republican candidate) are divided. “If the 2018 election for US House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district? (If other/unsure: As of today, do you lean more toward the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?)” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Ind Race/Ethnicity Latinos Whites Other groups Competitive House districts Republican/Lean Republican 37% 4% 89% 36% 19% 45% 27% 49% Democratic/Lean Democratic 55 91 8 44 74 49 57 44 Don’t know 8 4 3 20 7 6 16 7 Californians are divided on whether candidates for US Congress should work with the Trump administration (45%) or push back against the Trump administration (48%). Partisan likely voters are divided, and half of independents prefer working with Trump. Latinos are more likely to prefer pushing back while whites are more likely to prefer working with the administration. At least half in the Central Valley (50%), Inland Empire (61%), and Orange/San Diego (51%) say work with, while majorities in Los Angeles (52%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (56%) say push back. “Which of the following is more important to you in candidates for US Congress—that they work with the Trump administration or that they push back against the Trump administration?” Likely voters only Work with the Trump administration Push back against the Trump administration Both (volunteered) All likely voters 45% 48 2 Party Dem Rep 18% 76 3 85% 11 – Ind 51% 41 1 Race/Ethnicity Latinos Whites Other groups 28% 52% 35% 63 42 56 314 Competitive House districts 59% 37 2 Don’t know 5 4 38 6 5 5 2 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 9 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Proposition 6: Repealing the Gas Tax Increase In November, Californians will vote on Proposition 6, which would repeal recently enacted fuel taxes and vehicle fees passed by the legislature in April 2017. When read the Proposition 6 ballot title and label, 48 percent of likely voters would vote no; 41 percent would vote yes and 11 percent are undecided. Findings were similar in September (52% no, 39% yes, 8% undecided). Today, a slight majority of Republican likely voters (53%) and nearly half of independents would vote yes on Proposition 6, while fewer Democrats (28%) would do so. Regionally, support is highest in Orange/San Diego (52%) and lowest in the Central Valley and the San Francisco Bay Area (36% each). Indeed, fewer than half of likely voters across all demographic groups say they would vote yes on Proposition 6. “Proposition 6 is called the ‘Eliminates Certain Road Repair and Transportation Funding. Requires Certain Fuel Taxes and Vehicle Fees be Approved by the Electorate. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 6?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 41% 48% 11% Democrats 28 59 12 Party Republicans 53 35 12 Independents 49 43 8 Central Valley 36 56 9 Inland Empire 43 42 15 Region Los Angeles 41 48 11 Orange/San Diego 52 38 10 San Francisco Bay Area 36 51 13 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 24. Forty-six percent of likely voters say that the outcome of Proposition 6 is very important to them, while a further 35 percent say it is somewhat important. A slight majority of Republican likely voters (53%) say the outcome of Proposition 6 is very important to them while fewer Democratic (44%) and independent (41%) likely voters feel the same. Among those who would vote yes on Proposition 6, 57 percent say the outcome is very important; among those who would vote no, 43 percent say the outcome is very important. “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 6?” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Ind Vote on Proposition 6 Yes No Very important 46% 44% 53% 41% 57% 43% Somewhat important 35 38 32 38 33 40 Not too important 10 11 6 12 10 12 Not at all important 2 2 1 3 – 3 Don’t know 7 5 86 – 1 If Proposition 6 passes, it would eliminate the revenue from the recent increases in fuel tax and vehicle fees which are currently expected to fund transportation infrastructure projects. When asked about traffic congestion on freeways and major roads in their region, a solid majority of likely voters (66%) say it is a big problem (23% somewhat of a problem, 10% not a problem). More than six in ten likely voters across parties, and both supporters and opponents of Proposition 6 say traffic congestion is a big problem. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 10 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Proposition 10: Expanding Rent Control Authority Proposition 10 would expand the authority of local governments to enact rent control. When read the Proposition 10 ballot title and label, 60 percent of likely voters would vote no, 25 percent would vote yes, and 15 percent are undecided. Opposition to Proposition 10 has increased since September, when 48 percent of likely voters said they would vote no and 36 percent said they would vote yes. Today, majorities across parties would vote no on the measure. Across all regions, fewer than a third of likely voters say they will vote yes on Proposition 10. Though likely voters who rent are more likely than those who own to support Proposition 10 (34% to 22%), majorities in both groups would vote no if the election were held today. Indeed, majorities across all demographic groups would vote no on Proposition 10. “Proposition 10 is called the ‘Expands Local Governments’ Authority to Enact Rent Control on Residential Property. Initiative Statute.’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 10?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 25% 60% 15% Democrats 28 54 18 Party Republicans 15 72 12 Independents 28 61 11 Central Valley 24 62 14 Inland Empire 29 57 14 Region Los Angeles 22 65 13 Orange/San Diego 24 63 12 San Francisco Bay Area 31 53 15 Home ownership Own Rent 22 63 34 53 15 14 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 25. Forty-six percent of likely voters say that the outcome of the vote on Proposition 10 is very important to them, while a further 35 percent say it is somewhat important. Republican likely voters are slightly more likely than Democrats to say the outcome of Proposition 10 is very important to them. The proportion saying it is very important is similar among those who would vote yes and those who would vote no. “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 10?” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Ind Vote on Proposition 10 Yes No Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Don’t know 46% 45% 52% 46% 49% 35 37 29 34 42 11 11 7 11 7 2 1 44 2 7 6 86 – 48% 34 14 2 2 When asked about housing affordability in their part of the state, 66 percent of likely voters say it is a big problem (23% somewhat of a problem, 8% not a problem). Democratic (76%) and independent (63%) likely voters are more likely than Republican likely voters (55%) to say it is a big problem. Notably, those who say they would vote yes on Proposition 10 are more likely than opponents of Proposition 10 to say housing affordability is a big problem (73% to 62%). PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 11 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY State and National Issues OCTOBER 2018 Key Findings  Forty-eight percent of Californians approve of Governor Brown’s job performance, while 45 percent approve of the state legislature. These ratings were similar a year ago. (page 13)  Twenty-nine percent of Californians approve of President Trump, while 25 percent approve of the US Congress. Majorities of Californians disapprove of the US Senate vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh. (page 14)  About half of Californians expect good economic times in the state (48%) and the nation (48%) over the next 12 months. Thirty-six percent say the US is heading in the right direction. (page 15)  Fifty-four percent of Californians would rather have a bigger government providing more services than a smaller government providing fewer services (39%). Sixty-four percent of Californians think gun laws should be stricter. (page 16)  Fifty-eight percent of California adults favor state and local governments making their own policies to protect undocumented immigrants. Three in four oppose the border wall. (page 17)  Six in ten Californians have a favorable opinion of the Affordable Care Act. Two in three think it is the responsibility of the government to provide health care coverage for all Americans, but Californians are divided on single payer versus a mix of public and private programs. (page 18)  Forty-six percent of Californians view the Democratic Party favorably, while 29 percent have a favorable impression of the Republican Party. Fifty-five percent of adults say that a third major party is needed. (page 19) Percent all adults Percent all adults Percent all adults Approval ratings of state elected officials 100 Governor Brown California Legislature 80 60 4485 40 20 0 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Approval ratings of federal elected officials 100 President Trump US Congress 80 60 40 33 20 30 29 25 0 Approval of Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation to the US Supreme Court 100 Approve Disapprove 80 59 60 40 31 51 41 20 0 Californians Adults nationwide* *October 2018, ABC News-Washington Post poll PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 12 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Approval Ratings of State Elected Officials With the gubernatorial election approaching, how do Californians view the current officeholder? Governor Jerry Brown’s approval rating stands at 48 percent among California adults and 50 percent among likely voters. The governor’s approval ratings were in similar in September (49% adults, 53% likely voters) and slightly higher last November (55% adults, 56% likely voters). Today, the approval rating stands at 68 percent among Democrats, 43 percent among independents, and 15 percent among Republicans. Majorities in the San Francisco Bay Area (58%)—but fewer elsewhere—approve. Latinos (60%) more often approve than African Americans (44%), whites (44%), and Asian Americans (40%). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California?” Approve Disapprove All adults 48% 31% Likely voters 50 42 Democrats 68 17 Party Republicans 15 78 Independents 43 41 Central Valley 46 35 Inland Empire 37 40 Region Los Angeles 49 28 Orange/San Diego 43 37 San Francisco Bay Area 58 22 Don’t know 20% 9 15 7 16 19 23 23 19 20 With 100 state assembly and senate seats on the November ballot, the California Legislature’s approval rating is at 45 percent among all adults and 43 percent among likely voters. Approval of the legislature was similar in September (46% adults, 44% likely voters) and last November (48% adults, 45% likely voters). Today, 61 percent of Democrats, 40 percent of independents, and 14 percent of Republicans approve. About half of adults in Los Angeles (50%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (49%)—but fewer elsewhere—approve. Latinos (55%) and Asian Americans (51%) are more likely than African Americans (41%) and whites (38%) to approve. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California legislature is handling its job?” Approve Disapprove Don’t know All adults 45% 37% 18% Likely voters 43 48 10 Democrats 61 25 14 Party Republicans 14 79 8 Independents 40 47 13 Central Valley 43 40 17 Inland Empire 39 42 19 Region Los Angeles 50 32 18 Orange/San Diego 40 46 13 San Francisco Bay Area 49 30 21 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 13 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Approval Ratings of Federal Elected Officials With the midterm election drawing closer, 29 percent of California adults and 39 percent of likely voters approve of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president. The president’s approval rating was similar in September (30% adults, 37% likely voters) and it was similar when he entered office in January 2017 (30% adults, 34% likely voters). Today, 78 percent of Republicans, 38 percent of independents, and 8 percent of Democrats approve. The president’s approval rating is below 40 percent across the state’s major regions. Across racial/ethnic groups, whites (43%) are more likely than African Americans (20%), Asian Americans (18%), and Latinos (17%) to approve. According to a recent Gallup weekly tracking poll, 44 percent of adults nationwide approve of President Trump. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president?” Approve Disapprove Don’t know All adults 29% 64% 7% Likely voters 39 58 3 Democrats 8 90 2 Party Republicans 78 21 1 Independents 38 56 6 Central Valley 33 61 6 Inland Empire 30 65 5 Region Los Angeles 25 68 7 Orange/San Diego 38 55 7 San Francisco Bay Area 22 69 9 A quarter of California adults (25%) and 20 percent of likely voters approve of the US Congress. Approval was similar in September (28% adults, 20% likely voters) and in October 2016 (31% adults, 17% likely voters). Majorities disapprove across parties, regions, and racial/ethnic groups. Congress’s approval was at 21 percent in an October national Gallup poll. Relatedly, majorities of Californians (59% adults, 56% likely voters) disapprove of the US Senate vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh’s appointment to the US Supreme Court—with deep partisan divisions. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the US Congress is handling its job?” Approve Disapprove Don’t know All adults 25% 64% 11% Likely voters 20 75 6 Democrats 11 84 4 Party Republicans 40 52 9 Independents 25 71 4 Central Valley 25 61 14 Inland Empire 31 56 13 Region Los Angeles 24 66 10 Orange/San Diego 28 63 10 San Francisco Bay Area 22 65 14 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 14 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Overall Mood As the fall election campaigns enter the home stretch, about half of Californians expect good economic times for the state (48% adults, 47% likely voters) and the nation (48% adults, 53% likely voters). Democrats are more likely to expect good economic times in the state (52%) than in the nation (36%), and Republicans are more likely to expect good economic times in the nation (73%) than in the state (34%), while positive expectations among independents are similar for the nation (47%) and the state (44%). In October 2016, expectations for good economic times were similar for the state (47% adults, 46% likely voters) but likely voters had less positive expectations for the nation (46% adults, 44% likely voters). “Turning to economic conditions, do you think that during the next 12 months the United States will have good times financially or bad times?” Good times Bad times Don’t know All adults 48% 42% 10% Likely voters 53 39 9 Democrats 36 56 8 Party Republicans 73 21 6 Independents 47 46 7 Central Valley 49 41 10 Inland Empire 48 46 6 Region Los Angeles 42 49 9 Orange/San Diego 58 35 8 San Francisco Bay Area 49 38 12 By contrast, fewer than four in ten Californians (36% adults, 38% likely voters) say that things in the United States are generally going in the right direction. The belief that things in the United States are going in the right direction is more prevalent today than it was last December (29% adults, 27% likely voters); it was similar in October 2016 (43% adults, 40% likely voters). Today, majorities of Republicans (66%) but far fewer independents (40%) and Democrats (16%) say that things in the US are going in the right direction. Fewer than half across regions and racial/ethnic groups (42% whites, 37% Asian Americans, 30% Latinos, 25% African Americans) hold this positive view. “Do you think things in the United States are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?” Right direction Wrong direction Don’t know All adults 36% 57% 7% Likely voters 38 56 6 Democrats 16 80 5 Party Republicans 66 29 5 Independents 40 57 3 Central Valley 34 58 8 Inland Empire 39 51 10 Region Los Angeles 32 60 8 Orange/San Diego 47 49 4 San Francisco Bay Area 35 60 4 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 15 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Role of Government Asked about the size of government they would prefer, 54 percent of Californians prefer bigger government and more services, while 39 percent prefer smaller government and fewer services. Likely voters are more likely to prefer smaller government (53%). Similar majorities of Californians favored bigger government in May 2017 (54%) and March 2016 (57%). Today, partisans are divided on this question, with 66 percent of Democrats preferring bigger government and 83 percent of Republicans favoring smaller government; just over half of independents favor smaller government. Preference for bigger government is highest in the Inland Empire (63%), followed by Los Angeles (57%), the San Francisco Bay Area (56%), the Central Valley (51%), and Orange/San Diego (48%). Three in four Latinos (74%) and African Americans (73%) prefer bigger government, compared to fewer whites (41%) and Asian Americans (45%). Californians age 18 to 34 (59%) and age 35 to 54 (57%), those with just a high school diploma (69%), and those with lower income (67%) prefer a bigger government with more services. Women (59%) are more likely than men (49%) to prefer bigger government providing more services. “If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller government providing fewer services, or a bigger government providing more services?” All adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind voters Smaller government 39% 26% 83% 52% 53% Bigger government 54 66 15 41 41 Don’t know 67 2 76 Most Californians (64%) and likely voters (59%) continue to think that the laws covering the sale of guns should be made stricter. The belief that gun laws should be stricter was somewhat higher among adults in March (73%), shortly after the tragic high school shooting in Parkland, Florida. Californians are just as likely as adults nationwide in an October Gallup poll to say laws should be stricter (61% more strict, 30% kept as they are now, 8% less strict). An overwhelming majority of Democrats want gun laws to be more strict, as do about half of independents, while a plurality of Republicans prefer gun laws be kept as they are now. Majorities across regions prefer stricter gun laws; this preference is highest in Los Angeles (73%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (69%), followed by Orange/San Diego (62%), the Inland Empire (58%), and the Central Valley (54%). Preference for stricter gun laws is higher among Latinos (78%) and African Americans (73%) than among Asian Americans (62%) and whites (54%). Women (73%) are much more likely than men (55%) to prefer stricter gun laws. “In general, do you think laws covering the sale of guns should be made more strict, less strict, or kept as they are now?” All adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind voters More strict 64% 82% 31% 49% 59% Less strict 13 4 29 19 18 Kept as they are now 21 12 38 32 22 Don’t know 22 2 12 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 16 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Immigration Policy With a looming post-election battle over President Trump’s signature campaign promise of building a wall along the border with Mexico, a strong majority of Californians (74%) continue to be opposed to the idea. At least two in three Californians have opposed building a wall along the entire border with Mexico each of the six times we’ve asked this question since May 2016. There is a stark partisan divide: 90 percent of Democrats and 71 percent of independents are opposed, while two in three Republicans are in favor. Majorities across regions and demographic groups are opposed. Across regions, opposition is highest in the San Francisco Bay Area (80%), followed by Los Angeles (78%), the Inland Empire (73%), the Central Valley (71%), and Orange/San Diego (64%). Latinos (88%), Asian Americans (86%), and African Americans (77%) are more likely than whites (60%) to be opposed. Opposition to the wall is lower among older adults and those with higher household incomes. Two in three likely voters (65%) are opposed to building a wall along the entire border with Mexico, as are 56 percent of likely voters in competitive congressional districts. “All in all, would you favor or oppose building a wall along the entire border with Mexico?” All adults Dem Party Rep Race/Ethnicity Ind African Asian Americans Americans Latinos Favor 24% 8% 66% 26% 22% 10% 10% Oppose 74 90 32 71 77 86 88 Don't know 2 1 2 3 1 42 Whites 37% 60 2 With the US Department of Justice suing California over three immigration-related laws, how do Californians feel about state and local governments making their own policies and taking action— separate from the federal government—to protect the legal rights of undocumented immigrants in California? A majority of Californians (58%) are in favor. Majorities have favored state and local action each of the four times we have asked this question since January 2017. Three in four Democrats favor state and local action, while seven in ten Republicans oppose it and independents are divided. Latinos, Asian Americans, and African Americans are more likely than whites to be in favor. Majorities of adults in Los Angeles (63%), the San Francisco Bay Area (61%), the Central Valley (58%), and the Inland Empire (56%) are in favor, while those in Orange/San Diego (46% favor, 45% oppose) are divided. Support for these policies is lower among older adults. Likely voters (52% favor, 44% oppose) are divided over state and local governments taking action, including those in competitive congressional districts (51% favor, 47% oppose). “Do you favor or oppose the California state and local governments making their own policies and taking actions, separate from the federal government, to protect the legal rights of undocumented immigrants in California?” Favor All adults 58% Dem 76% Party Rep 26% Ind 49% African Americans 56% Race/Ethnicity Asian Americans Latinos 60% 70% Whites 49% Oppose 36 19 71 45 33 29 25 46 Don't know 6 5 3 5 11 11 5 5 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 17 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Heath Care Policy Covered California, California’s health insurance exchange, began open enrollment on October 15 and nationwide open enrollment for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) begins November 1. How do Californians feel about the ACA? A record-high 59 percent have a generally favorable view, while 33 percent have an unfavorable one. Opinions of the ACA were less favorable in May (45%), but similar in September 2017 (58%) when Republicans in Congress were attempting to repeal the law. According to an October Kaiser Family Foundation survey, adults nationwide are less likely to favor the health reform law (49% favorable, 42% unfavorable). Percent adults Support for the Affordable Care Act 100 Generally favorable 80 Generally unfavorable 60 59 40 20 33 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Strong majorities of Democrats view the ACA favorably and strong majorities of Republicans view it unfavorably; a slim majority of independents view it favorably. Favorable opinions of the ACA are most prevalent in the San Francisco Bay Area (69%) and Los Angeles (61%), followed by Orange/San Diego (59%), the Central Valley (54%), and the Inland Empire (54%). African Americans (79%) are the most positive about the ACA, followed by Latinos (66%), Asian Americans (61%), and whites (51%). Favorable opinions are higher among women (64%) than men (55%) and less common among older adults. “As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010, known commonly as the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it?” All adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind voters Favorable 59% 80% 24% 54% 53% Unfavorable 33 17 72 40 43 Don’t know 84 4 6 *December 2013 to May 2018 trend wording was “As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010.” 4 A solid majority of Californians and likely voters say that it is the responsibility of the federal government to make sure all Americans have health care coverage. Overwhelming majorities of Democrats say it is the government’s responsibility, as do six in ten independents; just one in four Republicans say this. Majorities across regions and demographic groups say it is the government’s responsibility. Californians are divided on whether health insurance should be provided via a single national health insurance system or through a mix of private insurance and government programs. “Do you think it is the responsibility of the federal government to make sure all Americans have health care coverage, or is that not the responsibility of the federal government? (If a responsibility: Should health insurance be provided through a single national health insurance system run by the government or continue to be provided through a mix of private insurance companies and government programs?)” All adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind voters Responsibility of government Single payer Mix of private and government Don’t know 65% 34 26 5 86% 45 35 6 28% 11 16 1 60% 36 20 4 59% 28 27 4 Not responsibility of government 31 14 70 36 38 Don’t know 41 3 43 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 18 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Party Perceptions With the 2018 midterm election fast approaching, how do Californians feel about the two major political parties? Today, 46 percent of adults and 41 percent of likely voters have a favorable impression of the Democratic Party; 29 percent of adults and 31 percent of likely voters have a favorable impression of the Republican Party. Notably, the Democratic Party’s favorability was somewhat higher in October 2016 (53% all adults, 50% likely voters), while Republican Party favorability was slightly lower before the last statewide election (23% all adults, 24% likely voters). Percent all adults Favorability of political parties over time 100 80 58 60 40 Democratic Party Republican Party 46 20 35 29 0 Today, 72 percent of Democrats have a favorable view of the Democratic Party and 69 percent of Republicans have a favorable view of the Republican Party. Slightly more than half of independents have an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party (52%), while a solid majority (62%) view the Republican Party unfavorably. Women (50%) are somewhat more likely than men (42%) to have a favorable impression of the Democratic Party, while a third or fewer of both men and women view the Republican Party favorably. Across racial/ethnic groups, Latinos (60%) and African Americans (56%) are more likely than Asian Americans (45%) and whites (37%) to have a favorable view of the Democratic Party. Notably, across all regions and demographic groups, fewer than four in ten adults have a favorable impression of the Republican Party. In an October CNN poll, 46 percent of registered voters nationwide had a favorable view of the Democratic Party while 40 percent had a favorable view of the Republican Party. Today, 22 percent of Californians and 26 percent of likely voters have an unfavorable view of both parties. “Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of the…?” All adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind voters Favorable 46% 72% 11% 40% 41% Democratic Party Unfavorable 41 24 86 52 54 Don't know 12 4 3 8 5 Favorable 29 10 69 29 31 Republican Party Unfavorable 61 85 29 62 65 Don't know 11 5 2 9 4 A majority of Californians (55%) and likely voters (61%) say that the Republican and Democratic parties do such a poor job that a third major party is needed. Majorities of adults have seen a third party as needed in December 2017 (60%) and in periodic PPIC Statewide Surveys since 2014. Today, majorities of Republicans (53%) and Democrats (56%) and three in four independents (75%) say a third party is needed. “In your view, do the Republican and Democratic Parties do an adequate job representing the American people, or do they do such a poor job that a third major party is needed?” All adults Dem Party Rep Ind Adequate job 32% 33% 34% 18% Third party is needed 55 56 53 75 Don't know 13 12 13 7 Likely voters 29% 61 10 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 19 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Regional Map OCTOBER 2018 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 20 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Methodology OCTOBER 2018 The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance from survey research associate Alyssa Dykman, project manager for this survey, associate survey director Dean Bonner, and survey research associate Lunna Lopes. The Californians and Their Government series is supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle. The PPIC Statewide Survey invites input, comments, and suggestions from policy and public opinion experts and from its own advisory committee members, but survey methods, questions, and content are determined solely by PPIC’s survey team. Findings in this report are based on a survey of 1,704 California adult residents, including 1,193 interviewed on cell phones and 511 interviewed on landline telephones. Interviews took an average of 18 minutes to complete. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights from October 12–21, 2018. Cell phone interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of cell phone numbers. All cell phone numbers with California area codes were eligible for selection. Once a cell phone user was reached, it was verified that this person was age 18 or older, a resident of California, and in a safe place to continue the survey (e.g., not driving). Cell phone respondents were offered a small reimbursement to help defray the cost of the call. Cell phone interviews were conducted with adults who have cell phone service only and with those who have both cell phone and landline service in the household. Landline interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible for selection. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. For both cell phones and landlines, telephone numbers were called as many as eight times. When no contact with an individual was made, calls to a number were limited to six. Also, to increase our ability to interview Asian American adults, we made up to three additional calls to phone numbers estimated by Survey Sampling International as likely to be associated with Asian American individuals. Live landline and cell phone interviews were conducted by Abt Associates in English and Spanish, according to respondents’ preferences. Accent on Languages, Inc., translated new survey questions into Spanish, with assistance from Renatta DeFever. Abt Associates uses the US Census Bureau’s 2012–2016 American Community Survey’s (ACS) Public Use Microdata Series for California (with regional coding information from the University of Minnesota’s Integrated Public Use Microdata Series for California) to compare certain demographic characteristics of the survey sample—region, age, gender, race/ethnicity, and education—with the characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the ACS figures. To estimate landline and cell phone service in California, Abt Associates used 2016 state-level estimates released by the National Center for Health Statistics—which used data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the ACS. The estimates for California were then compared against landline and cell phone service reported in this survey. We also used voter registration data from the California Secretary of State to compare the party registration of registered voters in our sample to party registration statewide. The landline and cell phone samples were then integrated using a frame integration weight, while sample balancing adjusted for differences across regional, age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, telephone service, and party registration groups. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 21 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 The sampling error, taking design effects from weighting into consideration, is ±3.3 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total unweighted sample of 1,704adults. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 3.3 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for unweighted subgroups is larger: for the 1,352 registered voters, the sampling error is ±3.6 percent; for the 989 likely voters, it is ±4.2 percent; for the 176 likely voters in competitive congressional districts, it is ±10.2 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. We present results for five geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, “Inland Empire” refers to Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, and “Orange/San Diego” refers to Orange and San Diego Counties. Residents of other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes for these less populous areas are not large enough to report separately. We also present results for congressional districts currently held by Democrats or Republicans, based on residential zip code and party of the local US House member. We analyze the results of those who live in competitive house districts as determined by the Cook Political Report’s 2018 House Race Ratings updated October 17, 2018. These districts are 4, 7, 10, 16, 21, 25, 39, 45, 48, 49, and 50; a map of California’s congressional districts can be found here. We present results for non-Hispanic whites, who account for 42 percent of the state’s adult population, and also for Latinos, who account for about a third of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest-growing voter groups. We also present results for non-Hispanic Asian Americans, who make up about 15 percent of the state’s adult population, and non-Hispanic African Americans, who comprise about 6 percent. Results for other racial/ethnic groups—such as Native Americans—are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes are not large enough for separate analysis. Results for African American and Asian American likely voters are combined with those of other racial/ethnic groups because sample sizes for African American and Asian American likely voters are too small for separate analysis. We compare the opinions of those who report they are registered Democrats, registered Republicans, and decline-to-state or independent voters; the results for those who say they are registered to vote in other parties are not large enough for separate analysis. We also analyze the responses of likely voters—so designated per their responses to survey questions about voter registration, previous election participation, intentions to vote this year, attention to election news, and current interest in politics. The percentages presented in the report tables and in the questionnaire may not add to 100 due to rounding. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey results to those in our earlier surveys and to those in national surveys by ABC/Washington Post, CNN, Gallup, and Kaiser Family Foundation. Additional details about our methodology can be found at www.ppic.org/wpcontent/uploads/SurveyMethodology.pdf and are available upon request through surveys@ppic.org. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 22 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Questionnaire and Results OCTOBER 2018 CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT October 12–21, 2018 1,704 California Adult Residents: English, Spanish MARGIN OF ERROR ±3.3% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100 DUE TO ROUNDING First, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California? 48% 31 20 approve disapprove don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job? 45% 37 18 approve disapprove don’t know Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 48% 39 12 good times bad times don’t know Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote in California? 67% yes [ask q4a] 33 no [skip to q5b] 4a. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or are you registered as a decline-to-state or independent voter? 45% 26 5 25 Democrat [ask q5] Republican [skip to q5a] another party (specify) [skip to q6] independent [skip to q5b] Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 64% 33 3 strong not very strong don’t know [skip to q6] 5a. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 63% 36 2 strong not very strong don’t know [skip to q6] 5b. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party? 20% 41 27 12 Republican Party Democratic Party neither (volunteered) don’t know [likely voters only] If the November 6 election for governor were being held today, would you vote for [rotate] [1] John Cox, a Republican, [or] [2] Gavin Newsom, a Democrat? 49% 38 2 10 Gavin Newsom, a Democrat John Cox, a Republican neither/would not vote for governor (volunteered) don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 23 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY [likely voters only] How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2018 governor’s election—very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 28% 40 21 10 1 very closely fairly closely not too closely not at all closely don’t know [likely voters only] In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for governor on November 6? 60% 32 8 satisfied not satisfied don’t know [likely voters only] If the November 6 election for the US Senate were being held today, would you vote for [rotate] [1] Kevin De León, a Democrat, [or] [2] Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat? 43% 27 23 8 Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat Kevin de León, a Democrat neither/would not vote for US Senator (volunteered) don’t know [likely voters only] In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for US Senate on November 6? 53% 39 8 satisfied not satisfied don’t know Changing topics, [likely voters only] If the 2018 election for US House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for [rotate] [1] the Republican candidate [or] [2] the Democratic candidate in your district? [If other/don’t know: As of today, do you lean more toward [read in same order as above] [1] the Republican candidate [or] [2] the Democratic candidate? 37% 55 8 Rep/lean Rep Dem/lean Dem don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 [likely voters only] Which of the following is more important to you in candidates for US Congress—[rotate] [1] that they work with the Trump Administration [or] [2] that they push back against the Trump Administration? 45% 48 2 5 work with the Trump Administration push back against the Trump Administration both (volunteered) don’t know [likely voters only] How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for Congress this year—extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic? 25% 28 28 10 8 1 extremely enthusiastic very enthusiastic somewhat enthusiastic not too enthusiastic not at all enthusiastic don’t know Next, we have a few questions to ask you about some of the propositions on the November ballot. [likely voters only] Proposition 6 is called the “Eliminates Certain Road Repair and Transportation Funding. Requires Certain Fuel Taxes and Vehicle Fees be Approved by the Electorate. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.” It repeals a 2017 transportation law’s taxes and fees designated for road repairs and public transportation. The fiscal impact is reduced ongoing revenues of $5.1 billion from state fuel and vehicle taxes that mainly would have paid for highway and road maintenance and repairs, as well as transit programs. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 6? 41% 48 11 yes no don’t know Californians and Their Government 24 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 6— is it very important, somewhat important, no too important, or not at all important? 46% 35 10 2 7 very important somewhat important not too important not at all important don’t know [likely voters only] Proposition 10 is called the “Expands Local Governments’ Authority to Enact Rent Control on Residential Property. Initiative Statute.” It repeals state law that currently restricts the scope of rent-control policies that cities and other local jurisdictions may impose on residential property. The fiscal impact is potential net reduction in state and local revenues of tens of millions of dollars per year in the long term. Depending on actions by local communities, revenue losses could be less or considerably more. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 10? 25% 60 15 yes no don’t know [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 10—is it very important, somewhat important, no too important, or not at all important? 46% 35 11 2 7 very important somewhat important not too important not at all important don’t know Next, [likely voters only] Would you say traffic congestion on freeways and major roads is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem in your region of California? 66% 23 10 1 big problem somewhat of a problem not a problem don’t know OCTOBER 2018 [likely voters only] How much of a problem is housing affordability in your part of California? Is it a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem? 66% 23 8 2 big problem somewhat of a problem not a problem don’t know On another topic, Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president? 29% 64 7 approve disapprove don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the US Congress is handling its job? 25% 64 11 approve disapprove don’t know Next, 21a.Do you approve or disapprove of the US Senate’s vote to confirm Trump’s nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the US Supreme Court? 31% 59 11 approve disapprove don’t know Changing topics, Do you think things in the United States are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 36% 57 7 right direction wrong direction don’t know Turning to economic conditions, do you think that during the next 12 months the United States will have good times financially or bad times? 48% 42 10 good times bad times don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 25 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Next, If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller government providing fewer services, or a bigger government providing more services? 39% 54 6 smaller government, fewer services bigger government, more services don’t know In general, do you think laws covering the sale of guns should be more strict, less strict, or kept as they are now? 64% 13 21 2 more strict less strict kept as they are now don’t know Changing topics, All in all, would you favor or oppose building a wall along the entire border with Mexico? 24% 74 2 favor oppose don’t know Do you favor or oppose the California state and local governments making their own policies and taking actions, separate from the federal government, to protect the legal rights of undocumented immigrants in California? 58% 36 6 favor oppose don’t know Next, As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010, known commonly as the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a [rotate] [1] generally favorable [or] [2] generally unfavorable opinion of it? 59% 33 8 generally favorable generally unfavorable don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Do you think it is the responsibility of the federal government to make sure all Americans have health care coverage, or is that not the responsibility of the federal government? (If “is responsibility of the government,” ask: Should health insurance [rotate] 1. Be provided through a single national health insurance system run by the government [or] 2. Continue to be provided through a mix of private insurance companies and government programs?) 65% 31 4 health care coverage is the responsibility of the federal government 34 and insurance should be provided through a single national health insurance system run by the government 26 and insurance should continue to be provided through a mix of private insurance companies and government programs 5 and don’t know health care coverage is not the responsibility of the federal government don’t know On another topic, [rotate questions 30 and 31] Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of the Democratic Party? 46% 41 12 favorable unfavorable don’t know Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of the Republican Party? 29% 61 11 favorable unfavorable don’t know In your view, do the Republican and Democratic parties do an adequate job representing the American people, or do they do such a poor job that a third major party is needed? 32% 55 13 adequate job third party is needed don’t know Californians and Their Government 26 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 16% 21 28 20 12 4 very liberal somewhat liberal middle-of-the-road somewhat conservative very conservative don’t know Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics—a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 24% 34 32 10 – great deal fair amount only a little none don’t know [likely voters only] Thinking about the November 6 election, are you more enthusiastic about voting than usual, or less enthusiastic? 69% 18 11 – 1 more enthusiastic less enthusiastic same/neither (volunteered) can’t vote (volunteered) don’t know [d1-d16 demographic questions] OCTOBER 2018 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 27 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect Angela Glover Blackwell Founder in Residence PolicyLink Mollyann Brodie Senior Vice President Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Bill Lane Center for the American West Stanford University Jon Cohen Vice President of Survey Research SurveyMonkey Joshua J. Dyck Co-Director Center for Public Opinion University of Massachusetts, Lowell Lisa García Bedolla Director Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley Russell Hancock President and CEO Joint Venture Silicon Valley Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Professor Sol Price School of Public Policy University of Southern California Robert Lapsley President California Business Roundtable Carol S. Larson President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Sonja Petek Fiscal and Policy Analyst California Legislative Analyst’s Office Lisa Pitney Vice President of Government Relations The Walt Disney Company Robert K. Ross, MD President and CEO The California Endowment Most Reverend Jaime Soto Bishop of Sacramento Roman Catholic Diocese of Sacramento Carol Whiteside Principal California Strategies The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PPIC BOARD OF DIRECTORS Steven A. Merksamer, Chair Senior Partner Nielsen, Merksamer, Parrinello, Gross & Leoni, LLP Mark Baldassare President and CEO Public Policy Institute of California Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect María Blanco Executive Director University of California Immigrant Legal Services Center Louise Henry Bryson Chair Emerita, Board of Trustees J. Paul Getty Trust A. Marisa Chun Partner McDermott Will & Emery LLP Chet Hewitt President and CEO Sierra Health Foundation Phil Isenberg Former Chair Delta Stewardship Council Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Mas Masumoto Author and Farmer Leon E. Panetta Chairman The Panetta Institute for Public Policy Gerald L. Parsky Chairman Aurora Capital Group Kim Polese Chairman ClearStreet, Inc. Gaddi H. Vasquez Senior Vice President, Government Affairs Edison International Southern California Edison Public Policy Institute of California 500 Washington Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, CA 94111 T: 415.291.4400 F: 415.291.4401 PPIC.ORG PPIC Sacramento Center Senator Office Building 1121 L Street, Suite 801 Sacramento, CA 95814 T: 916.440.1120 F: 916.440.1121" } ["___content":protected]=> string(190) "

PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government, October 2018

" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(137) "https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2018/ppic-statewide-survey-october-2018/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(16854) ["ID"]=> int(16854) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "4" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2018-10-24 20:51:44" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(16676) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(70) "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government, October 2018" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(34) "ppic-statewide-survey-october-2018" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(38) "ppic-statewide-survey-october-2018.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(7) "2042309" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(74106) "PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Californians & Their Government Mark Baldassare Dean Bonner Alyssa Dykman Lunna Lopes CONTENTS Press Release 2018 California Election State and National Issues Regional Map Methodology Questionnaire and Results 3 6 12 20 21 23 Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle The PPIC Statewide Survey provides a voice for the public and likely voters— informing policymakers, encouraging discussion, and raising awareness on critical issues of the day. © 2018 Public Policy Institute of California The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. PPIC is a public charity. It does not take or support positions on any ballot measures or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source. Research publications reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or of the staff, officers, advisory councils, or board of directors of the Public Policy Institute of California. PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY News Release OCTOBER 2018 CONTACT Abby Cook 415-291-4436 EMBARGOED: Do not publish or broadcast until 9:00 p.m. PDT on Wednesday, October 24, 2018. Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: www.ppic.org/press-release/ PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT Newsom, Feinstein Lead—Gas Tax Repeal, Rent Control Lag DEMOCRATS MORE LIKELY THAN REPUBLICANS TO BE ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT VOTING FOR CONGRESS SAN FRANCISCO, October 24, 2018—In the closing weeks of the fall campaign, Gavin Newsom holds an 11 point lead among likely voters in the governor’s race and Dianne Feinstein is ahead by 16 points in the US Senate election. Two closely watched ballot measures—one to repeal the recent gas tax increase and another to expand local authority to enact rent control—are trailing. These are among the key findings of a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC). Democrat Newsom leads Republican John Cox among likely voters 49 percent to 38 percent, with 10 percent undecided. A large majority of Democratic likely voters (83%) favor Newsom, and a similar majority of Republicans (82%) support Cox. Independents are divided (43% Cox, 38% Newsom). Across racial/ ethnic groups, white likely voters are divided (45% Newsom, 45% Cox), while Latinos favor Newsom (65% to 23%). Likely voters in other racial/ethnic groups prefer Newsom by 25 points. (Sample sizes for Asian American and African American likely voters are too small for separate analysis.) Most likely voters (68%) say they are following news about the candidates at least fairly closely. And most (60%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in this race, with satisfaction higher among Democrats and Newsom supporters. US Senate: Feinstein Ahead by Double Digits Senator Dianne Feinstein, seeking her fifth US Senate term, leads fellow Democrat Kevin de León 43 percent to 27 percent, with a quarter of likely voters (23%) saying they will not vote in this race and 8 percent undecided. Democratic likely voters favor Feinstein three to one (66% to 22%). Half of Republicans (51%) and 22 percent of independents say they will not vote in the US Senate election. When those who say they would not vote are excluded, Feinstein leads by 20 points (55% to 35%). Feinstein leads among white likely voters (41% to 27%), Latino likely voters (45% to 34%), and likely voters in other racial/ethnic groups (50% to 19%). Feinstein leads by 27 points among women (50% to 23%), while men are divided (35% Feinstein, 31% de León). Likely voters age 45 and older prefer Feinstein (47% to 26%), while those age 18 to 44 are divided (34% Feinstein, 30% de León). About half of likely voters (53%) are satisfied with their choice of candidates in this race between two Democrats. A strong majority of Democrats (79%) are satisfied, compared to 40 percent of independents and 28 percent of Republicans. “Gavin Newsom and Dianne Feinstein continue to hold significant leads over their challengers as the governor’s and Senate races enter the final stretch,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 3 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Gas Tax Repeal: 41 Percent Would Vote for Proposition 6 Proposition 6 would repeal the fuel taxes and vehicle fees enacted last year. When read the ballot title and label of the measure, 48 percent of likely voters would vote no, compared to 41 percent who would vote yes and 11 percent who are undecided. Findings were similar in September (52% no, 39% yes, 8% undecided). Today, a slim majority of Republican likely voters (53%) and about half of independents (49%) would vote yes, while fewer Democrats (28%) would do so. Regionally, support for repeal is highest in Orange/San Diego (52%) and lowest in the Central Valley and the San Francisco Bay Area (36% each). Fewer than half across all demographic groups say they support the measure. Asked about the importance of the outcome of the vote on Proposition 6, 46 percent of likely voters say it is very important to them (35% somewhat important). Among those who favor repealing the gas tax increase, 57 percent say the outcome is very important. Among those who would vote no, 43 percent say the outcome is very important. If Proposition 6 passes, revenue from fuel and license fee increases that is now expected to fund transportation infrastructure projects would be eliminated. When likely voters are asked about traffic congestion on freeways and major roads, most (66%) say it is a big problem in their region. Rent Control: Proposition 10 Loses Ground Proposition 10 would expand the authority of local governments to enact rent control. When read the ballot title and label of this measure, 60 percent of likely voters would vote no, while 25 percent would vote yes and 15 percent are undecided. Opposition to Proposition 10 has increased since September (48% no, 36% yes, 16% undecided). Today, majorities across parties would vote no on the measure. Across all regions, less than a third of likely voters say they will vote yes. Although renters are more likely than homeowners to support Proposition 10 (34% to 22%), majorities in both groups would vote no if the election were held today. Indeed, majorities across all demographic groups would vote no. When they are asked about the importance of Proposition 10, 46 percent of likely voters say the outcome of the vote is very important to them. Those who would vote yes are about as likely as those who would vote no to say that the outcome of the vote is very important. When likely voters are asked more generally about housing affordability, 66 percent say it is a big problem in their part of the state. Those who say they would vote yes on Proposition 10 are more likely than opponents to say that housing affordability is a big problem (73% to 62%). “While most say that housing affordability is a problem, Proposition 10 trails,” Baldassare said. “Only half say the outcome of this ballot measure is very important to them.” Congress: Majority Favor Democratic Candidates for House As both parties focus on which one will control Congress, half of California likely voters say they are extremely enthusiastic (25%) or very enthusiastic (28%) about voting in congressional races this year. Democratic likely voters (67%) are more apt to say they are very or extremely enthusiastic than Republicans (45%) and independents (42%) are. If the election for the House of Representatives were held today, a majority of likely voters (55%) say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate, and 37 percent would vote for or lean toward the Republican. Partisan likely voters support the candidate from their own party, while independents are divided. In districts held by a Democratic representative, likely voters prefer the Democratic candidate by a 30 point margin (60% to 30%). In districts held by a Republican, likely voters prefer the Republican candidate by 15 points (55% to 40%). In the 11 districts deemed competitive by the Cook Political Report, likely voters are divided (49% Republican candidate, 44% Democratic candidate). Nine of these seats are now held by Republicans. (For more information, see page 22 of the PPIC survey report.) PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 4 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 The PPIC survey asks if it is more important that candidates for Congress work with the Trump administration or push back. Likely voters are divided: 45 percent prefer working with the administration and 48 percent prefer pushing back. Few Approve of Congress or the Senate Vote to Confirm Kavanaugh When California likely voters are asked about their current leaders, half (50%) approve of Governor Jerry Brown; his approval ratings were similar in September 2017 (55%).The state legislature’s approval rating among likely voters is 43 percent. President Trump’s approval rating—39 percent among likely voters today—was similar when he took office in January 2017 (34%). Just 20 percent of California likely voters approve of the way Congress is doing its job. Asked about the US Senate’s vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh’s appointment to the Supreme Court, a majority of likely voters (56%) disapprove. Most Have Bad Impression of Major Parties Asked for their impressions of the major political parties, fewer than half of likely voters have a favorable view of the Democratic Party (41%) and fewer than a third have a favorable impression of the Republican Party (31%). Notably, the favorability of the Democratic Party was somewhat higher in October 2016 (50%) before the last statewide election, while the favorability of the Republican Party was somewhat lower (24%). One finding has changed little: most likely voters say the parties do such a poor job that a third major party is needed (61% today, 62% October 2016). Baldassare said: “As likely voters ponder who they should elect to represent them in Washington, views about the major political parties and Congress are in negative territory.” As the election nears, likely voters are conflicted about the state of the nation. About half are feeling optimistic about the economy—47 percent expect good economic times in California in the next year, and 53 percent expect good economic times in the nation. In contrast, just 38 percent say that things in the United States are generally going in the right direction. ACA Gets Favorable Marks, Border Wall Does Not The survey asks likely voters about three key national issues:  Majority view Affordable Care Act favorably: 53 percent of likely voters hold a generally favorable view of the health reform law and 43 percent view it unfavorably. A solid majority (59%) say it is the responsibility of the federal government to make sure all Americans have health care coverage. Likely voters are divided on whether health insurance should be provided through a single national insurance system (28%) or through a mix of private insurance and government programs (27%). Baldassare summed up: “Most California likely voters think that the federal government should be responsible for providing health coverage for all, while less than a third favor a single-payer system.”  Two-thirds oppose building a border wall: 65 percent of likely voters oppose building a wall along the entire border with Mexico. As the US Department of Justice pursues a lawsuit against California over three immigration laws the state enacted, the survey asks whether California should make its own policies to protect the rights of undocumented immigrants. A slim majority of likely voters (52%) say it should and 44 percent say no.  Most want stricter gun laws: A majority of likely voters (59%) say laws covering the sale of guns should be stricter, while 18 percent say laws should be less strict and 22 percent favor keeping gun laws the way they are. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 5 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY 2018 California Election OCTOBER 2018 Key Findings  In the closing weeks of the governor’s race, Gavin Newsom has an 11 point lead over John Cox. Six in ten likely voters are satisfied with their choices of candidates, with Democrats slightly more likely to be satisfied than Republicans. (page 7)  In the US Senate election, Senator Dianne Feinstein has a 16 point lead over Kevin de León. One in four likely voters—including half of Republicans—volunteer that they would not vote in this race. Half of likely voters are satisfied with their choices of candidates, with Democrats far more likely than Republicans to be satisfied. (page 8)  Half of likely voters are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting in congressional races this year. Fifty-five percent of likely voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their House of Representatives election. When it comes to candidates for Congress, likely voters are divided on whether it’s more important to work with (45%) or push back against (48%) the Trump administration. (page 9)  Forty-one percent of likely voters would vote yes on Proposition 6 (repeal gas tax increase) and 48 percent would vote no. Forty-six percent of likely voters say the outcome of the vote on Proposition 6 is very important, with yes voters 14 points more likely than no voters to say this. (page 10)  Twenty-five percent of likely voters would vote yes on Proposition 10 (expand rent control authority) and 60 percent would vote no. Forty-six percent of likely voters say the outcome of the vote on Proposition 10 is very important, with yes and no voters similarly likely to say this. (page 11) Percent likely voters Percent likely voters Percent likely voters 2018 gubernatorial election 100 Gavin Newsom John Cox 80 Would not vote for governor (vol) Don’t know 60 51 39 40 49 38 20 7 3 0 September 10 2 October 2018 US Senate election 100 80 Dianne Feinstein Kevin de León Would not vote for US senator (vol) Don’t know 60 40 40 29 23 20 8 43 27 23 8 0 September October Support for November 2018 ballot measures 100 Prop 6: Repeal gas tax increase Prop 10: Expand 80 rent control authority 60 40 39 36 20 41 25 0 September October PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 6 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Gubernatorial Election In the closing weeks of the governor’s race, nearly seven in ten likely voters are following news about the candidates very (28%) or fairly (40%) closely. Attention to news is higher than in September (21% very, 41% fairly) but is lower than in October 2010 (39% very, 50% fairly)—when California had partisan primaries and an open gubernatorial election featuring Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman. In the gubernatorial election, Democrat Gavin Newsom has an 11 point lead over Republican John Cox (49% to 38%) among likely voters, with 10 percent undecided. Newsom held a similar lead in September (51% to 39%) but had a larger lead in July (55% to 31%). Today, 83 percent of Democrats support Newsom and 82 percent of Republicans support Cox. Independents are divided (43% Cox, 38% Newsom) with 14 percent undecided. Newsom leads Cox by 42 points among Latino likely voters (65% to 23%), while white likely voters are divided (45% Newsom, 45% Cox). Likely voters in other racial/ethnic groups prefer Newsom by 25 points. (Sample sizes for Asian American and African American likely voters are too small for separate analysis.) Across regions, Newsom has majority support among likely voters in Los Angeles (55%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (54%), while Cox leads in the Inland Empire (50% Cox, 41% Newsom). Likely voters are divided in the Central Valley (45% Cox, 44% Newsom) and Orange/San Diego (44% Cox, 49% Newsom). Women favor Newsom over Cox by 26 points (56% to 30%), while men are divided (48% Cox, 42% Newsom). Newsom leads Cox among likely voters age 18 to 44 (48% to 39%), those age 45 and older (50% to 38%), those without a college degree (47% to 39%), and college graduates (53% to 37%). “If the November 6 election for governor were being held today, would you vote for John Cox, a Republican, or Gavin Newsom, a Democrat?” Likely voters only All likely voters Gavin Newsom, a Democrat 49% Dem 83% Party Rep 11% Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups 38% 65% 45% 52% John Cox, a Republican Would not vote for governor (volunteered) Don’t know 38 2 10 7 82 43 23 1 15 1 10 6 14 11 45 2 7 27 4 17 Six in ten likely voters (60%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the election for governor, while one in three are not satisfied (32%)—similar to the September PPIC survey (59% satisfied, 32% not satisfied). Satisfaction was slightly lower in October 2014 (52%) and much lower in October 2010 (42%). Today, satisfaction is slightly higher among Democrats (69%) and Newsom supporters (72%) than among Republicans (62%) and Cox supporters (55%). Independent likely voters are divided. Satisfaction is highest among likely voters in the Central Valley (64%), followed by Los Angeles (59%), the San Francisco Bay Area (59%), Orange/San Diego (58%), and the Inland Empire (53%). At least half of likely voters across age, education, income, and racial/ethnic groups are satisfied with their choices of candidates. “In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for governor on November 6?” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups Satisfied 60% 69% 62% 47% 59% 62% 56% Not satisfied 32 24 30 43 30 31 35 Don’t know 8 6 8 10 11 7 9 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 7 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 US Senate Election In the US Senate election, Dianne Feinstein—who is seeking her fifth full term as US Senator—leads fellow Democrat Kevin de León by 16 points (43% to 27%) among likely voters, with 23 percent reporting that they will not vote for US senator and 8 percent undecided. Feinstein held a similar lead in the September PPIC survey (40% to 29%) but had a larger lead in the July PPIC survey (46% to 24%). Today, Feinstein is favored over de León among Democrats by a three-to-one margin. Half of Republicans and one in five independents say they would not vote for US senator. Feinstein leads de León by 20 points (55% to 35%) when we exclude the 23 percent who volunteer they would not vote for either candidate. Feinstein is favored over de León among likely voters in the Central Valley (40% to 27%), Los Angeles (49% to 26%), Orange/San Diego (40% to 30%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (46% to 27%), while those in the Inland Empire (36% Feinstein, 30% de León) are divided. Feinstein leads de León among white likely voters (41% to 27%), Latinos (45% to 34%), and those in other racial/ethnic groups (50% to 19%). Feinstein leads de León by 27 points among women (50% to 23%), while men are divided (35% Feinstein, 31% de León). Likely voters age 45 and older favor Feinstein over de León by 21 points (47% to 26%), while those age 18 to 44 are divided (34% Feinstein, 30% de León). Newsom’s supporters favor Feinstein over de León (63% to 28%), while half of Cox’s supporters (50%) say they will not vote in the US Senate election between two Democrats. “If the November 6 election for the US Senate were being held today, would you vote for Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat, or Kevin de León, a Democrat?” Likely voters only Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat All likely voters 43% Dem 66% Party Rep 14% Ind 39% Latinos 45% Race/Ethnicity Whites 41% Other groups 50% Kevin de León, a Democrat 27 22 28 31 34 Would not vote for US senator (volunteered) 23 5 51 22 11 Don’t know 8 77 8 10 27 26 6 19 20 12 Half of likely voters (53%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the US Senate election—similar to our findings in September (55%). Satisfaction today is similar to that in October 2016 (51%), shortly before Senator Kamala Harris defeated fellow Democrat Loretta Sanchez, but is slightly lower than in October 2010 (62%), shortly before Senator Barbara Boxer defeated Republican Carly Fiorina. (We did not survey Feinstein’s 2012 reelection bid). Today, a strong majority of Democrats (79%) are satisfied, compared to four in ten independents (40%) and three in ten Republicans (28%). Satisfaction is highest in Los Angeles (55%). More than half across education and racial/ethnic groups say they are satisfied. Among those who are satisfied, Feinstein leads de León by 34 points (59% to 25%). Among those who are not satisfied, 40 percent say they would not vote for US senator (22% would vote for Feinstein, 32% for de León). “In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for US Senate on November 6?” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups Satisfied 53% 79% 28% 40% 64% 51% 54% Not satisfied 39 14 64 51 26 44 31 Don’t know 8 8 8 9 10 5 14 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 8 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Congressional Elections Whether or not Democrats take control of the US Congress is a major plotline in the 2018 election. Half of likely voters (53%) say they are extremely (25%) or very enthusiastic (28%) about voting in congressional races this year—similar to our findings in May (46%). According to an October CNN poll, registered voters nationwide (33% extremely, 22% very) are somewhat more likely than registered voters in our survey (21% extremely, 24% very) to be enthusiastic. Among California likely voters, Democrats (67%) are more likely than Republicans (45%) and independents (42%) to be at least very enthusiastic about voting in races for Congress this year. If the 2018 election for the US House of Representatives were held today, a majority of likely voters (55%) would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate, while 37 percent would vote for or lean toward the Republican candidate. The Democratic candidate was preferred by similar margins in our September survey (54% to 37%) and our May survey (52% to 38%). Findings among registered voters (57% Democratic candidate, 35% Republican candidate) are similar to nationwide findings in an October ABC News/ Washington Post poll (53% Democratic candidate, 42% Republican candidate). Most partisan likely voters would support their own party, while independents are more divided. Democratic candidates are preferred by a 30 point margin (60% to 30%) in Democratic-held districts, while Republican candidates are preferred by a 15 point margin (55% to 40%) in Republican-held districts. In the 11 California districts deemed competitive by the Cook Political Report, likely voters are divided (49% Republican candidate, 44% Democratic candidate). (Nine of these seats are currently held by Republicans; for more information see page 22). The Democratic candidate is preferred by large margins in Los Angeles (62% to 30%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (60% to 28%), and by narrower margins in Orange/San Diego (53% to 42%). The Republican candidate is preferred by narrower margins in the Inland Empire (50% to 45%); those in the Central Valley (47% Democratic candidate, 46% Republican candidate) are divided. “If the 2018 election for US House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district? (If other/unsure: As of today, do you lean more toward the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?)” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Ind Race/Ethnicity Latinos Whites Other groups Competitive House districts Republican/Lean Republican 37% 4% 89% 36% 19% 45% 27% 49% Democratic/Lean Democratic 55 91 8 44 74 49 57 44 Don’t know 8 4 3 20 7 6 16 7 Californians are divided on whether candidates for US Congress should work with the Trump administration (45%) or push back against the Trump administration (48%). Partisan likely voters are divided, and half of independents prefer working with Trump. Latinos are more likely to prefer pushing back while whites are more likely to prefer working with the administration. At least half in the Central Valley (50%), Inland Empire (61%), and Orange/San Diego (51%) say work with, while majorities in Los Angeles (52%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (56%) say push back. “Which of the following is more important to you in candidates for US Congress—that they work with the Trump administration or that they push back against the Trump administration?” Likely voters only Work with the Trump administration Push back against the Trump administration Both (volunteered) All likely voters 45% 48 2 Party Dem Rep 18% 76 3 85% 11 – Ind 51% 41 1 Race/Ethnicity Latinos Whites Other groups 28% 52% 35% 63 42 56 314 Competitive House districts 59% 37 2 Don’t know 5 4 38 6 5 5 2 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 9 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Proposition 6: Repealing the Gas Tax Increase In November, Californians will vote on Proposition 6, which would repeal recently enacted fuel taxes and vehicle fees passed by the legislature in April 2017. When read the Proposition 6 ballot title and label, 48 percent of likely voters would vote no; 41 percent would vote yes and 11 percent are undecided. Findings were similar in September (52% no, 39% yes, 8% undecided). Today, a slight majority of Republican likely voters (53%) and nearly half of independents would vote yes on Proposition 6, while fewer Democrats (28%) would do so. Regionally, support is highest in Orange/San Diego (52%) and lowest in the Central Valley and the San Francisco Bay Area (36% each). Indeed, fewer than half of likely voters across all demographic groups say they would vote yes on Proposition 6. “Proposition 6 is called the ‘Eliminates Certain Road Repair and Transportation Funding. Requires Certain Fuel Taxes and Vehicle Fees be Approved by the Electorate. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 6?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 41% 48% 11% Democrats 28 59 12 Party Republicans 53 35 12 Independents 49 43 8 Central Valley 36 56 9 Inland Empire 43 42 15 Region Los Angeles 41 48 11 Orange/San Diego 52 38 10 San Francisco Bay Area 36 51 13 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 24. Forty-six percent of likely voters say that the outcome of Proposition 6 is very important to them, while a further 35 percent say it is somewhat important. A slight majority of Republican likely voters (53%) say the outcome of Proposition 6 is very important to them while fewer Democratic (44%) and independent (41%) likely voters feel the same. Among those who would vote yes on Proposition 6, 57 percent say the outcome is very important; among those who would vote no, 43 percent say the outcome is very important. “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 6?” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Ind Vote on Proposition 6 Yes No Very important 46% 44% 53% 41% 57% 43% Somewhat important 35 38 32 38 33 40 Not too important 10 11 6 12 10 12 Not at all important 2 2 1 3 – 3 Don’t know 7 5 86 – 1 If Proposition 6 passes, it would eliminate the revenue from the recent increases in fuel tax and vehicle fees which are currently expected to fund transportation infrastructure projects. When asked about traffic congestion on freeways and major roads in their region, a solid majority of likely voters (66%) say it is a big problem (23% somewhat of a problem, 10% not a problem). More than six in ten likely voters across parties, and both supporters and opponents of Proposition 6 say traffic congestion is a big problem. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 10 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Proposition 10: Expanding Rent Control Authority Proposition 10 would expand the authority of local governments to enact rent control. When read the Proposition 10 ballot title and label, 60 percent of likely voters would vote no, 25 percent would vote yes, and 15 percent are undecided. Opposition to Proposition 10 has increased since September, when 48 percent of likely voters said they would vote no and 36 percent said they would vote yes. Today, majorities across parties would vote no on the measure. Across all regions, fewer than a third of likely voters say they will vote yes on Proposition 10. Though likely voters who rent are more likely than those who own to support Proposition 10 (34% to 22%), majorities in both groups would vote no if the election were held today. Indeed, majorities across all demographic groups would vote no on Proposition 10. “Proposition 10 is called the ‘Expands Local Governments’ Authority to Enact Rent Control on Residential Property. Initiative Statute.’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 10?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 25% 60% 15% Democrats 28 54 18 Party Republicans 15 72 12 Independents 28 61 11 Central Valley 24 62 14 Inland Empire 29 57 14 Region Los Angeles 22 65 13 Orange/San Diego 24 63 12 San Francisco Bay Area 31 53 15 Home ownership Own Rent 22 63 34 53 15 14 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 25. Forty-six percent of likely voters say that the outcome of the vote on Proposition 10 is very important to them, while a further 35 percent say it is somewhat important. Republican likely voters are slightly more likely than Democrats to say the outcome of Proposition 10 is very important to them. The proportion saying it is very important is similar among those who would vote yes and those who would vote no. “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 10?” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Ind Vote on Proposition 10 Yes No Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Don’t know 46% 45% 52% 46% 49% 35 37 29 34 42 11 11 7 11 7 2 1 44 2 7 6 86 – 48% 34 14 2 2 When asked about housing affordability in their part of the state, 66 percent of likely voters say it is a big problem (23% somewhat of a problem, 8% not a problem). Democratic (76%) and independent (63%) likely voters are more likely than Republican likely voters (55%) to say it is a big problem. Notably, those who say they would vote yes on Proposition 10 are more likely than opponents of Proposition 10 to say housing affordability is a big problem (73% to 62%). PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 11 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY State and National Issues OCTOBER 2018 Key Findings  Forty-eight percent of Californians approve of Governor Brown’s job performance, while 45 percent approve of the state legislature. These ratings were similar a year ago. (page 13)  Twenty-nine percent of Californians approve of President Trump, while 25 percent approve of the US Congress. Majorities of Californians disapprove of the US Senate vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh. (page 14)  About half of Californians expect good economic times in the state (48%) and the nation (48%) over the next 12 months. Thirty-six percent say the US is heading in the right direction. (page 15)  Fifty-four percent of Californians would rather have a bigger government providing more services than a smaller government providing fewer services (39%). Sixty-four percent of Californians think gun laws should be stricter. (page 16)  Fifty-eight percent of California adults favor state and local governments making their own policies to protect undocumented immigrants. Three in four oppose the border wall. (page 17)  Six in ten Californians have a favorable opinion of the Affordable Care Act. Two in three think it is the responsibility of the government to provide health care coverage for all Americans, but Californians are divided on single payer versus a mix of public and private programs. (page 18)  Forty-six percent of Californians view the Democratic Party favorably, while 29 percent have a favorable impression of the Republican Party. Fifty-five percent of adults say that a third major party is needed. (page 19) Percent all adults Percent all adults Percent all adults Approval ratings of state elected officials 100 Governor Brown California Legislature 80 60 4485 40 20 0 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Approval ratings of federal elected officials 100 President Trump US Congress 80 60 40 33 20 30 29 25 0 Approval of Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation to the US Supreme Court 100 Approve Disapprove 80 59 60 40 31 51 41 20 0 Californians Adults nationwide* *October 2018, ABC News-Washington Post poll PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 12 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Approval Ratings of State Elected Officials With the gubernatorial election approaching, how do Californians view the current officeholder? Governor Jerry Brown’s approval rating stands at 48 percent among California adults and 50 percent among likely voters. The governor’s approval ratings were in similar in September (49% adults, 53% likely voters) and slightly higher last November (55% adults, 56% likely voters). Today, the approval rating stands at 68 percent among Democrats, 43 percent among independents, and 15 percent among Republicans. Majorities in the San Francisco Bay Area (58%)—but fewer elsewhere—approve. Latinos (60%) more often approve than African Americans (44%), whites (44%), and Asian Americans (40%). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California?” Approve Disapprove All adults 48% 31% Likely voters 50 42 Democrats 68 17 Party Republicans 15 78 Independents 43 41 Central Valley 46 35 Inland Empire 37 40 Region Los Angeles 49 28 Orange/San Diego 43 37 San Francisco Bay Area 58 22 Don’t know 20% 9 15 7 16 19 23 23 19 20 With 100 state assembly and senate seats on the November ballot, the California Legislature’s approval rating is at 45 percent among all adults and 43 percent among likely voters. Approval of the legislature was similar in September (46% adults, 44% likely voters) and last November (48% adults, 45% likely voters). Today, 61 percent of Democrats, 40 percent of independents, and 14 percent of Republicans approve. About half of adults in Los Angeles (50%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (49%)—but fewer elsewhere—approve. Latinos (55%) and Asian Americans (51%) are more likely than African Americans (41%) and whites (38%) to approve. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California legislature is handling its job?” Approve Disapprove Don’t know All adults 45% 37% 18% Likely voters 43 48 10 Democrats 61 25 14 Party Republicans 14 79 8 Independents 40 47 13 Central Valley 43 40 17 Inland Empire 39 42 19 Region Los Angeles 50 32 18 Orange/San Diego 40 46 13 San Francisco Bay Area 49 30 21 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 13 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Approval Ratings of Federal Elected Officials With the midterm election drawing closer, 29 percent of California adults and 39 percent of likely voters approve of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president. The president’s approval rating was similar in September (30% adults, 37% likely voters) and it was similar when he entered office in January 2017 (30% adults, 34% likely voters). Today, 78 percent of Republicans, 38 percent of independents, and 8 percent of Democrats approve. The president’s approval rating is below 40 percent across the state’s major regions. Across racial/ethnic groups, whites (43%) are more likely than African Americans (20%), Asian Americans (18%), and Latinos (17%) to approve. According to a recent Gallup weekly tracking poll, 44 percent of adults nationwide approve of President Trump. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president?” Approve Disapprove Don’t know All adults 29% 64% 7% Likely voters 39 58 3 Democrats 8 90 2 Party Republicans 78 21 1 Independents 38 56 6 Central Valley 33 61 6 Inland Empire 30 65 5 Region Los Angeles 25 68 7 Orange/San Diego 38 55 7 San Francisco Bay Area 22 69 9 A quarter of California adults (25%) and 20 percent of likely voters approve of the US Congress. Approval was similar in September (28% adults, 20% likely voters) and in October 2016 (31% adults, 17% likely voters). Majorities disapprove across parties, regions, and racial/ethnic groups. Congress’s approval was at 21 percent in an October national Gallup poll. Relatedly, majorities of Californians (59% adults, 56% likely voters) disapprove of the US Senate vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh’s appointment to the US Supreme Court—with deep partisan divisions. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the US Congress is handling its job?” Approve Disapprove Don’t know All adults 25% 64% 11% Likely voters 20 75 6 Democrats 11 84 4 Party Republicans 40 52 9 Independents 25 71 4 Central Valley 25 61 14 Inland Empire 31 56 13 Region Los Angeles 24 66 10 Orange/San Diego 28 63 10 San Francisco Bay Area 22 65 14 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 14 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Overall Mood As the fall election campaigns enter the home stretch, about half of Californians expect good economic times for the state (48% adults, 47% likely voters) and the nation (48% adults, 53% likely voters). Democrats are more likely to expect good economic times in the state (52%) than in the nation (36%), and Republicans are more likely to expect good economic times in the nation (73%) than in the state (34%), while positive expectations among independents are similar for the nation (47%) and the state (44%). In October 2016, expectations for good economic times were similar for the state (47% adults, 46% likely voters) but likely voters had less positive expectations for the nation (46% adults, 44% likely voters). “Turning to economic conditions, do you think that during the next 12 months the United States will have good times financially or bad times?” Good times Bad times Don’t know All adults 48% 42% 10% Likely voters 53 39 9 Democrats 36 56 8 Party Republicans 73 21 6 Independents 47 46 7 Central Valley 49 41 10 Inland Empire 48 46 6 Region Los Angeles 42 49 9 Orange/San Diego 58 35 8 San Francisco Bay Area 49 38 12 By contrast, fewer than four in ten Californians (36% adults, 38% likely voters) say that things in the United States are generally going in the right direction. The belief that things in the United States are going in the right direction is more prevalent today than it was last December (29% adults, 27% likely voters); it was similar in October 2016 (43% adults, 40% likely voters). Today, majorities of Republicans (66%) but far fewer independents (40%) and Democrats (16%) say that things in the US are going in the right direction. Fewer than half across regions and racial/ethnic groups (42% whites, 37% Asian Americans, 30% Latinos, 25% African Americans) hold this positive view. “Do you think things in the United States are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?” Right direction Wrong direction Don’t know All adults 36% 57% 7% Likely voters 38 56 6 Democrats 16 80 5 Party Republicans 66 29 5 Independents 40 57 3 Central Valley 34 58 8 Inland Empire 39 51 10 Region Los Angeles 32 60 8 Orange/San Diego 47 49 4 San Francisco Bay Area 35 60 4 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 15 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Role of Government Asked about the size of government they would prefer, 54 percent of Californians prefer bigger government and more services, while 39 percent prefer smaller government and fewer services. Likely voters are more likely to prefer smaller government (53%). Similar majorities of Californians favored bigger government in May 2017 (54%) and March 2016 (57%). Today, partisans are divided on this question, with 66 percent of Democrats preferring bigger government and 83 percent of Republicans favoring smaller government; just over half of independents favor smaller government. Preference for bigger government is highest in the Inland Empire (63%), followed by Los Angeles (57%), the San Francisco Bay Area (56%), the Central Valley (51%), and Orange/San Diego (48%). Three in four Latinos (74%) and African Americans (73%) prefer bigger government, compared to fewer whites (41%) and Asian Americans (45%). Californians age 18 to 34 (59%) and age 35 to 54 (57%), those with just a high school diploma (69%), and those with lower income (67%) prefer a bigger government with more services. Women (59%) are more likely than men (49%) to prefer bigger government providing more services. “If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller government providing fewer services, or a bigger government providing more services?” All adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind voters Smaller government 39% 26% 83% 52% 53% Bigger government 54 66 15 41 41 Don’t know 67 2 76 Most Californians (64%) and likely voters (59%) continue to think that the laws covering the sale of guns should be made stricter. The belief that gun laws should be stricter was somewhat higher among adults in March (73%), shortly after the tragic high school shooting in Parkland, Florida. Californians are just as likely as adults nationwide in an October Gallup poll to say laws should be stricter (61% more strict, 30% kept as they are now, 8% less strict). An overwhelming majority of Democrats want gun laws to be more strict, as do about half of independents, while a plurality of Republicans prefer gun laws be kept as they are now. Majorities across regions prefer stricter gun laws; this preference is highest in Los Angeles (73%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (69%), followed by Orange/San Diego (62%), the Inland Empire (58%), and the Central Valley (54%). Preference for stricter gun laws is higher among Latinos (78%) and African Americans (73%) than among Asian Americans (62%) and whites (54%). Women (73%) are much more likely than men (55%) to prefer stricter gun laws. “In general, do you think laws covering the sale of guns should be made more strict, less strict, or kept as they are now?” All adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind voters More strict 64% 82% 31% 49% 59% Less strict 13 4 29 19 18 Kept as they are now 21 12 38 32 22 Don’t know 22 2 12 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 16 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Immigration Policy With a looming post-election battle over President Trump’s signature campaign promise of building a wall along the border with Mexico, a strong majority of Californians (74%) continue to be opposed to the idea. At least two in three Californians have opposed building a wall along the entire border with Mexico each of the six times we’ve asked this question since May 2016. There is a stark partisan divide: 90 percent of Democrats and 71 percent of independents are opposed, while two in three Republicans are in favor. Majorities across regions and demographic groups are opposed. Across regions, opposition is highest in the San Francisco Bay Area (80%), followed by Los Angeles (78%), the Inland Empire (73%), the Central Valley (71%), and Orange/San Diego (64%). Latinos (88%), Asian Americans (86%), and African Americans (77%) are more likely than whites (60%) to be opposed. Opposition to the wall is lower among older adults and those with higher household incomes. Two in three likely voters (65%) are opposed to building a wall along the entire border with Mexico, as are 56 percent of likely voters in competitive congressional districts. “All in all, would you favor or oppose building a wall along the entire border with Mexico?” All adults Dem Party Rep Race/Ethnicity Ind African Asian Americans Americans Latinos Favor 24% 8% 66% 26% 22% 10% 10% Oppose 74 90 32 71 77 86 88 Don't know 2 1 2 3 1 42 Whites 37% 60 2 With the US Department of Justice suing California over three immigration-related laws, how do Californians feel about state and local governments making their own policies and taking action— separate from the federal government—to protect the legal rights of undocumented immigrants in California? A majority of Californians (58%) are in favor. Majorities have favored state and local action each of the four times we have asked this question since January 2017. Three in four Democrats favor state and local action, while seven in ten Republicans oppose it and independents are divided. Latinos, Asian Americans, and African Americans are more likely than whites to be in favor. Majorities of adults in Los Angeles (63%), the San Francisco Bay Area (61%), the Central Valley (58%), and the Inland Empire (56%) are in favor, while those in Orange/San Diego (46% favor, 45% oppose) are divided. Support for these policies is lower among older adults. Likely voters (52% favor, 44% oppose) are divided over state and local governments taking action, including those in competitive congressional districts (51% favor, 47% oppose). “Do you favor or oppose the California state and local governments making their own policies and taking actions, separate from the federal government, to protect the legal rights of undocumented immigrants in California?” Favor All adults 58% Dem 76% Party Rep 26% Ind 49% African Americans 56% Race/Ethnicity Asian Americans Latinos 60% 70% Whites 49% Oppose 36 19 71 45 33 29 25 46 Don't know 6 5 3 5 11 11 5 5 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 17 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Heath Care Policy Covered California, California’s health insurance exchange, began open enrollment on October 15 and nationwide open enrollment for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) begins November 1. How do Californians feel about the ACA? A record-high 59 percent have a generally favorable view, while 33 percent have an unfavorable one. Opinions of the ACA were less favorable in May (45%), but similar in September 2017 (58%) when Republicans in Congress were attempting to repeal the law. According to an October Kaiser Family Foundation survey, adults nationwide are less likely to favor the health reform law (49% favorable, 42% unfavorable). Percent adults Support for the Affordable Care Act 100 Generally favorable 80 Generally unfavorable 60 59 40 20 33 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Strong majorities of Democrats view the ACA favorably and strong majorities of Republicans view it unfavorably; a slim majority of independents view it favorably. Favorable opinions of the ACA are most prevalent in the San Francisco Bay Area (69%) and Los Angeles (61%), followed by Orange/San Diego (59%), the Central Valley (54%), and the Inland Empire (54%). African Americans (79%) are the most positive about the ACA, followed by Latinos (66%), Asian Americans (61%), and whites (51%). Favorable opinions are higher among women (64%) than men (55%) and less common among older adults. “As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010, known commonly as the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it?” All adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind voters Favorable 59% 80% 24% 54% 53% Unfavorable 33 17 72 40 43 Don’t know 84 4 6 *December 2013 to May 2018 trend wording was “As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010.” 4 A solid majority of Californians and likely voters say that it is the responsibility of the federal government to make sure all Americans have health care coverage. Overwhelming majorities of Democrats say it is the government’s responsibility, as do six in ten independents; just one in four Republicans say this. Majorities across regions and demographic groups say it is the government’s responsibility. Californians are divided on whether health insurance should be provided via a single national health insurance system or through a mix of private insurance and government programs. “Do you think it is the responsibility of the federal government to make sure all Americans have health care coverage, or is that not the responsibility of the federal government? (If a responsibility: Should health insurance be provided through a single national health insurance system run by the government or continue to be provided through a mix of private insurance companies and government programs?)” All adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind voters Responsibility of government Single payer Mix of private and government Don’t know 65% 34 26 5 86% 45 35 6 28% 11 16 1 60% 36 20 4 59% 28 27 4 Not responsibility of government 31 14 70 36 38 Don’t know 41 3 43 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 18 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Party Perceptions With the 2018 midterm election fast approaching, how do Californians feel about the two major political parties? Today, 46 percent of adults and 41 percent of likely voters have a favorable impression of the Democratic Party; 29 percent of adults and 31 percent of likely voters have a favorable impression of the Republican Party. Notably, the Democratic Party’s favorability was somewhat higher in October 2016 (53% all adults, 50% likely voters), while Republican Party favorability was slightly lower before the last statewide election (23% all adults, 24% likely voters). Percent all adults Favorability of political parties over time 100 80 58 60 40 Democratic Party Republican Party 46 20 35 29 0 Today, 72 percent of Democrats have a favorable view of the Democratic Party and 69 percent of Republicans have a favorable view of the Republican Party. Slightly more than half of independents have an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party (52%), while a solid majority (62%) view the Republican Party unfavorably. Women (50%) are somewhat more likely than men (42%) to have a favorable impression of the Democratic Party, while a third or fewer of both men and women view the Republican Party favorably. Across racial/ethnic groups, Latinos (60%) and African Americans (56%) are more likely than Asian Americans (45%) and whites (37%) to have a favorable view of the Democratic Party. Notably, across all regions and demographic groups, fewer than four in ten adults have a favorable impression of the Republican Party. In an October CNN poll, 46 percent of registered voters nationwide had a favorable view of the Democratic Party while 40 percent had a favorable view of the Republican Party. Today, 22 percent of Californians and 26 percent of likely voters have an unfavorable view of both parties. “Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of the…?” All adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind voters Favorable 46% 72% 11% 40% 41% Democratic Party Unfavorable 41 24 86 52 54 Don't know 12 4 3 8 5 Favorable 29 10 69 29 31 Republican Party Unfavorable 61 85 29 62 65 Don't know 11 5 2 9 4 A majority of Californians (55%) and likely voters (61%) say that the Republican and Democratic parties do such a poor job that a third major party is needed. Majorities of adults have seen a third party as needed in December 2017 (60%) and in periodic PPIC Statewide Surveys since 2014. Today, majorities of Republicans (53%) and Democrats (56%) and three in four independents (75%) say a third party is needed. “In your view, do the Republican and Democratic Parties do an adequate job representing the American people, or do they do such a poor job that a third major party is needed?” All adults Dem Party Rep Ind Adequate job 32% 33% 34% 18% Third party is needed 55 56 53 75 Don't know 13 12 13 7 Likely voters 29% 61 10 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 19 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Regional Map OCTOBER 2018 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 20 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Methodology OCTOBER 2018 The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance from survey research associate Alyssa Dykman, project manager for this survey, associate survey director Dean Bonner, and survey research associate Lunna Lopes. The Californians and Their Government series is supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle. The PPIC Statewide Survey invites input, comments, and suggestions from policy and public opinion experts and from its own advisory committee members, but survey methods, questions, and content are determined solely by PPIC’s survey team. Findings in this report are based on a survey of 1,704 California adult residents, including 1,193 interviewed on cell phones and 511 interviewed on landline telephones. Interviews took an average of 18 minutes to complete. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights from October 12–21, 2018. Cell phone interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of cell phone numbers. All cell phone numbers with California area codes were eligible for selection. Once a cell phone user was reached, it was verified that this person was age 18 or older, a resident of California, and in a safe place to continue the survey (e.g., not driving). Cell phone respondents were offered a small reimbursement to help defray the cost of the call. Cell phone interviews were conducted with adults who have cell phone service only and with those who have both cell phone and landline service in the household. Landline interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible for selection. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. For both cell phones and landlines, telephone numbers were called as many as eight times. When no contact with an individual was made, calls to a number were limited to six. Also, to increase our ability to interview Asian American adults, we made up to three additional calls to phone numbers estimated by Survey Sampling International as likely to be associated with Asian American individuals. Live landline and cell phone interviews were conducted by Abt Associates in English and Spanish, according to respondents’ preferences. Accent on Languages, Inc., translated new survey questions into Spanish, with assistance from Renatta DeFever. Abt Associates uses the US Census Bureau’s 2012–2016 American Community Survey’s (ACS) Public Use Microdata Series for California (with regional coding information from the University of Minnesota’s Integrated Public Use Microdata Series for California) to compare certain demographic characteristics of the survey sample—region, age, gender, race/ethnicity, and education—with the characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the ACS figures. To estimate landline and cell phone service in California, Abt Associates used 2016 state-level estimates released by the National Center for Health Statistics—which used data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the ACS. The estimates for California were then compared against landline and cell phone service reported in this survey. We also used voter registration data from the California Secretary of State to compare the party registration of registered voters in our sample to party registration statewide. The landline and cell phone samples were then integrated using a frame integration weight, while sample balancing adjusted for differences across regional, age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, telephone service, and party registration groups. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 21 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 The sampling error, taking design effects from weighting into consideration, is ±3.3 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total unweighted sample of 1,704adults. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 3.3 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for unweighted subgroups is larger: for the 1,352 registered voters, the sampling error is ±3.6 percent; for the 989 likely voters, it is ±4.2 percent; for the 176 likely voters in competitive congressional districts, it is ±10.2 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. We present results for five geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, “Inland Empire” refers to Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, and “Orange/San Diego” refers to Orange and San Diego Counties. Residents of other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes for these less populous areas are not large enough to report separately. We also present results for congressional districts currently held by Democrats or Republicans, based on residential zip code and party of the local US House member. We analyze the results of those who live in competitive house districts as determined by the Cook Political Report’s 2018 House Race Ratings updated October 17, 2018. These districts are 4, 7, 10, 16, 21, 25, 39, 45, 48, 49, and 50; a map of California’s congressional districts can be found here. We present results for non-Hispanic whites, who account for 42 percent of the state’s adult population, and also for Latinos, who account for about a third of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest-growing voter groups. We also present results for non-Hispanic Asian Americans, who make up about 15 percent of the state’s adult population, and non-Hispanic African Americans, who comprise about 6 percent. Results for other racial/ethnic groups—such as Native Americans—are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes are not large enough for separate analysis. Results for African American and Asian American likely voters are combined with those of other racial/ethnic groups because sample sizes for African American and Asian American likely voters are too small for separate analysis. We compare the opinions of those who report they are registered Democrats, registered Republicans, and decline-to-state or independent voters; the results for those who say they are registered to vote in other parties are not large enough for separate analysis. We also analyze the responses of likely voters—so designated per their responses to survey questions about voter registration, previous election participation, intentions to vote this year, attention to election news, and current interest in politics. The percentages presented in the report tables and in the questionnaire may not add to 100 due to rounding. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey results to those in our earlier surveys and to those in national surveys by ABC/Washington Post, CNN, Gallup, and Kaiser Family Foundation. Additional details about our methodology can be found at www.ppic.org/wpcontent/uploads/SurveyMethodology.pdf and are available upon request through surveys@ppic.org. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 22 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Questionnaire and Results OCTOBER 2018 CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT October 12–21, 2018 1,704 California Adult Residents: English, Spanish MARGIN OF ERROR ±3.3% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100 DUE TO ROUNDING First, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California? 48% 31 20 approve disapprove don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job? 45% 37 18 approve disapprove don’t know Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 48% 39 12 good times bad times don’t know Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote in California? 67% yes [ask q4a] 33 no [skip to q5b] 4a. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or are you registered as a decline-to-state or independent voter? 45% 26 5 25 Democrat [ask q5] Republican [skip to q5a] another party (specify) [skip to q6] independent [skip to q5b] Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 64% 33 3 strong not very strong don’t know [skip to q6] 5a. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 63% 36 2 strong not very strong don’t know [skip to q6] 5b. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party? 20% 41 27 12 Republican Party Democratic Party neither (volunteered) don’t know [likely voters only] If the November 6 election for governor were being held today, would you vote for [rotate] [1] John Cox, a Republican, [or] [2] Gavin Newsom, a Democrat? 49% 38 2 10 Gavin Newsom, a Democrat John Cox, a Republican neither/would not vote for governor (volunteered) don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 23 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY [likely voters only] How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2018 governor’s election—very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 28% 40 21 10 1 very closely fairly closely not too closely not at all closely don’t know [likely voters only] In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for governor on November 6? 60% 32 8 satisfied not satisfied don’t know [likely voters only] If the November 6 election for the US Senate were being held today, would you vote for [rotate] [1] Kevin De León, a Democrat, [or] [2] Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat? 43% 27 23 8 Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat Kevin de León, a Democrat neither/would not vote for US Senator (volunteered) don’t know [likely voters only] In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for US Senate on November 6? 53% 39 8 satisfied not satisfied don’t know Changing topics, [likely voters only] If the 2018 election for US House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for [rotate] [1] the Republican candidate [or] [2] the Democratic candidate in your district? [If other/don’t know: As of today, do you lean more toward [read in same order as above] [1] the Republican candidate [or] [2] the Democratic candidate? 37% 55 8 Rep/lean Rep Dem/lean Dem don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 [likely voters only] Which of the following is more important to you in candidates for US Congress—[rotate] [1] that they work with the Trump Administration [or] [2] that they push back against the Trump Administration? 45% 48 2 5 work with the Trump Administration push back against the Trump Administration both (volunteered) don’t know [likely voters only] How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for Congress this year—extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic? 25% 28 28 10 8 1 extremely enthusiastic very enthusiastic somewhat enthusiastic not too enthusiastic not at all enthusiastic don’t know Next, we have a few questions to ask you about some of the propositions on the November ballot. [likely voters only] Proposition 6 is called the “Eliminates Certain Road Repair and Transportation Funding. Requires Certain Fuel Taxes and Vehicle Fees be Approved by the Electorate. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.” It repeals a 2017 transportation law’s taxes and fees designated for road repairs and public transportation. The fiscal impact is reduced ongoing revenues of $5.1 billion from state fuel and vehicle taxes that mainly would have paid for highway and road maintenance and repairs, as well as transit programs. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 6? 41% 48 11 yes no don’t know Californians and Their Government 24 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 6— is it very important, somewhat important, no too important, or not at all important? 46% 35 10 2 7 very important somewhat important not too important not at all important don’t know [likely voters only] Proposition 10 is called the “Expands Local Governments’ Authority to Enact Rent Control on Residential Property. Initiative Statute.” It repeals state law that currently restricts the scope of rent-control policies that cities and other local jurisdictions may impose on residential property. The fiscal impact is potential net reduction in state and local revenues of tens of millions of dollars per year in the long term. Depending on actions by local communities, revenue losses could be less or considerably more. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 10? 25% 60 15 yes no don’t know [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 10—is it very important, somewhat important, no too important, or not at all important? 46% 35 11 2 7 very important somewhat important not too important not at all important don’t know Next, [likely voters only] Would you say traffic congestion on freeways and major roads is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem in your region of California? 66% 23 10 1 big problem somewhat of a problem not a problem don’t know OCTOBER 2018 [likely voters only] How much of a problem is housing affordability in your part of California? Is it a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem? 66% 23 8 2 big problem somewhat of a problem not a problem don’t know On another topic, Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president? 29% 64 7 approve disapprove don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the US Congress is handling its job? 25% 64 11 approve disapprove don’t know Next, 21a.Do you approve or disapprove of the US Senate’s vote to confirm Trump’s nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the US Supreme Court? 31% 59 11 approve disapprove don’t know Changing topics, Do you think things in the United States are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 36% 57 7 right direction wrong direction don’t know Turning to economic conditions, do you think that during the next 12 months the United States will have good times financially or bad times? 48% 42 10 good times bad times don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 25 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Next, If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller government providing fewer services, or a bigger government providing more services? 39% 54 6 smaller government, fewer services bigger government, more services don’t know In general, do you think laws covering the sale of guns should be more strict, less strict, or kept as they are now? 64% 13 21 2 more strict less strict kept as they are now don’t know Changing topics, All in all, would you favor or oppose building a wall along the entire border with Mexico? 24% 74 2 favor oppose don’t know Do you favor or oppose the California state and local governments making their own policies and taking actions, separate from the federal government, to protect the legal rights of undocumented immigrants in California? 58% 36 6 favor oppose don’t know Next, As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010, known commonly as the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a [rotate] [1] generally favorable [or] [2] generally unfavorable opinion of it? 59% 33 8 generally favorable generally unfavorable don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY OCTOBER 2018 Do you think it is the responsibility of the federal government to make sure all Americans have health care coverage, or is that not the responsibility of the federal government? (If “is responsibility of the government,” ask: Should health insurance [rotate] 1. Be provided through a single national health insurance system run by the government [or] 2. Continue to be provided through a mix of private insurance companies and government programs?) 65% 31 4 health care coverage is the responsibility of the federal government 34 and insurance should be provided through a single national health insurance system run by the government 26 and insurance should continue to be provided through a mix of private insurance companies and government programs 5 and don’t know health care coverage is not the responsibility of the federal government don’t know On another topic, [rotate questions 30 and 31] Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of the Democratic Party? 46% 41 12 favorable unfavorable don’t know Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of the Republican Party? 29% 61 11 favorable unfavorable don’t know In your view, do the Republican and Democratic parties do an adequate job representing the American people, or do they do such a poor job that a third major party is needed? 32% 55 13 adequate job third party is needed don’t know Californians and Their Government 26 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 16% 21 28 20 12 4 very liberal somewhat liberal middle-of-the-road somewhat conservative very conservative don’t know Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics—a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 24% 34 32 10 – great deal fair amount only a little none don’t know [likely voters only] Thinking about the November 6 election, are you more enthusiastic about voting than usual, or less enthusiastic? 69% 18 11 – 1 more enthusiastic less enthusiastic same/neither (volunteered) can’t vote (volunteered) don’t know [d1-d16 demographic questions] OCTOBER 2018 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 27 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect Angela Glover Blackwell Founder in Residence PolicyLink Mollyann Brodie Senior Vice President Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Bill Lane Center for the American West Stanford University Jon Cohen Vice President of Survey Research SurveyMonkey Joshua J. Dyck Co-Director Center for Public Opinion University of Massachusetts, Lowell Lisa García Bedolla Director Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley Russell Hancock President and CEO Joint Venture Silicon Valley Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Professor Sol Price School of Public Policy University of Southern California Robert Lapsley President California Business Roundtable Carol S. Larson President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Sonja Petek Fiscal and Policy Analyst California Legislative Analyst’s Office Lisa Pitney Vice President of Government Relations The Walt Disney Company Robert K. Ross, MD President and CEO The California Endowment Most Reverend Jaime Soto Bishop of Sacramento Roman Catholic Diocese of Sacramento Carol Whiteside Principal California Strategies The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PPIC BOARD OF DIRECTORS Steven A. Merksamer, Chair Senior Partner Nielsen, Merksamer, Parrinello, Gross & Leoni, LLP Mark Baldassare President and CEO Public Policy Institute of California Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect María Blanco Executive Director University of California Immigrant Legal Services Center Louise Henry Bryson Chair Emerita, Board of Trustees J. Paul Getty Trust A. Marisa Chun Partner McDermott Will & Emery LLP Chet Hewitt President and CEO Sierra Health Foundation Phil Isenberg Former Chair Delta Stewardship Council Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Mas Masumoto Author and Farmer Leon E. Panetta Chairman The Panetta Institute for Public Policy Gerald L. Parsky Chairman Aurora Capital Group Kim Polese Chairman ClearStreet, Inc. Gaddi H. Vasquez Senior Vice President, Government Affairs Edison International Southern California Edison Public Policy Institute of California 500 Washington Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, CA 94111 T: 415.291.4400 F: 415.291.4401 PPIC.ORG PPIC Sacramento Center Senator Office Building 1121 L Street, Suite 801 Sacramento, CA 95814 T: 916.440.1120 F: 916.440.1121" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2018-10-25 03:51:44" ["comment_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(34) "ppic-statewide-survey-october-2018" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2018-10-24 20:52:07" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2018-10-25 03:52:07" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["guid"]=> string(77) "http://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/ppic-statewide-survey-october-2018.pdf" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_mime_type"]=> string(15) "application/pdf" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" ["status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["attachment_authors"]=> bool(false) }