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object(Timber\Post)#3711 (44) { ["ImageClass"]=> string(12) "Timber\Image" ["PostClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Post" ["TermClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Term" ["object_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["custom"]=> array(5) { ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(12) "S_910MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "796612" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(92206) "ppic statewide survey SEPTEMBER 2010 &Californians their government Mark Baldassare Dean Bonner Sonja Petek Nicole Willcoxon CONTENTS About the Survey 2 Press Release 3 November 2010 Election 6 State and National Issues 14 Regional Map 24 Methodology 25 Questionnaire and Results 27 in collaboration with The James Irvine Foundation ABOUT THE SURVEY The PPIC Statewide Survey series provides policymakers, the media, and the public with objective, advocacy-free information on the perceptions, opinions, and public policy preferences of California residents. Inaugurated in April 1998, this is the 109th PPIC Statewide Survey in a series that has generated a database of responses from more than 232,000 Californians. This survey is the 42nd in the Californians and Their Government series, which is conducted periodically to examine the social, economic, and political trends that influence public policy preferences and ballot choices. The series is supported with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. This survey seeks to raise public awareness, inform decisionmakers, and stimulate public discussion and debate about important state and national issues and the November general election. Poor economic conditions and a state budget impasse set the stage for this survey, which was conducted just over a month before the November general election that features competitive races for governor and U.S. senator. Several citizens’ initiatives on the ballot are linked by proponents to economic and fiscal recovery, from legalizing marijuana to suspending climate change legislation, repealing recently enacted legislation reducing business tax liability, and lowering the legislative vote threshold for passing the state budget. Despite reports that the national recession officially ended in June 2009, California continues to face double-digit unemployment—the third highest in the nation. The state also faces a fiscal crisis with its multibillion-dollar budget gap, but legislators have yet to pass a budget—three months past the constitutional deadline. As poor economic indicators persist at the national level, President Obama and Congress have been grappling over a jobs bill, the extension of tax cuts, and whether the economic stimulus has helped fuel recovery. This survey presents the responses of 2,004 adult residents throughout the state, interviewed in English or Spanish and reached by landline or cell phone. It includes findings on these topics:  The 2010 general election, including preferences for candidates in both the governor’s and U.S. senate races, satisfaction with choices of candidates in each race, and thoughts about candidate qualities; and support for, perceived importance of, and general attitudes about four propositions: Proposition 19 (legalizes marijuana under California law), Proposition 23 (suspends AB 32 implementation), Proposition 24 (repeals legislation allowing businesses to lower tax liability), and Proposition 25 (changes budget approval requirement from two-thirds to a simple majority).  State and national issues, including the direction of the state, perceptions of the economy and unemployment, and future economic outlook; approval ratings of Governor Schwarzenegger, the California Legislature, and respondents’ own state legislators; approval ratings of President Obama, Congress, U.S. Senators Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein, and respondents’ own congressional representatives; views of the severity of the state budget situation and of how to deal with it; attitudes toward the president’s economic policies and job creation efforts; opinions on immigration; and preferences regarding gay marriage.  Time trends, national comparisons, and the extent to which Californians—based on their political party affiliation, region of residence, race/ethnicity, and other demographics—may differ in their perceptions, attitudes, and preferences regarding the 2010 general election and state and national issues. This report may be downloaded free of charge from our website (www.ppic.org). For questions about the survey, please contact survey@ppic.org. View our searchable PPIC Statewide Survey database online at http://www.ppic.org/main/survAdvancedSearch.asp. September 2010 Californians and Their Government 2 PPIC Statewide Survey CONTACT Linda Strean 415-291-4412 Andrew Hattori 415-291-4417 NEWS RELEASE EMBARGOED: Do not publish or broadcast until 9:00 p.m. PDT on Wednesday, September 29, 2010. Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: http://www.ppic.org/main/pressreleaseindex.asp PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT Whitman, Brown Deadlocked—Boxer Holds Narrow Lead HALF OF VOTERS FAVOR LEGALIZING MARIJUANA, FEWER FAVOR LOWERING BUDGET THRESHOLD—THEY’RE DIVIDED ON SUSPENDING AB 32 SAN FRANCISCO, September 29, 2010—A month before the election, the races for California governor and U.S. senator are close and many likely voters are still undecided, according to a survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. In the governor’s race, Democrat Jerry Brown (37%) and Republican Meg Whitman (38%) are locked in a virtual tie among likely voters with 18 percent undecided. In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer (42%) leads Republican Carly Fiorina (35%) by 7 points, with 17 percent undecided. A sluggish national economy, double-digit unemployment, and a record-long state budget crisis are very much on the minds of Californians as the election approaches. Unconvinced by reports that the recession ended last year, nearly all residents (89%) say the state is in a recession. Asked to name the most important issue facing people in California, 62 percent say jobs and the economy—-nearly matching the record-high 63 percent who gave this answer in February 2009. More than four in 10 residents say they are very concerned or somewhat concerned that they or someone in their family could lose a job in the next year. Californians’ views of state and federal elected officials are reflected in approval ratings that are at or near record lows. And a significant number of likely voters are unhappy with the choice of candidates in the governor’s race as well. Only 45 percent are satisfied. Of four ballot propositions included in the PPIC survey, just one exceeded the 50 percent threshold of support needed for passage, and it barely did so: Proposition 19, which would legalize marijuana and allow it to be regulated and taxed in California (52% would vote yes, 41% no, 7% undecided). “Neither the candidates nor the ballot measures have captured the imagination of the California electorate,” says Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO. “There’s consensus about the problems, and voters are looking for a game-changer. They don’t see one on this ballot.” MORE INDEPENDENTS FAVOR WHITMAN The survey—completed just before a series of televised debates between the candidates—reveals a governor’s race that remains close among likely voters, as it was in July (34% Whitman, 37% Brown, 23% undecided). Independents were divided in July (30% Brown, 28% Whitman, 30% undecided) but have shifted toward Whitman (38% Whitman, 30% Brown, 19% undecided). Whitman is favored more by Republicans (71%) than Brown is by Democrats (63%). September 2010 Californians and Their Government 3 PPIC Statewide Survey IS EXPERIENCE IN BUSINESS OR POLITICS MORE IMPORTANT? VOTERS DIVIDED The elections for governor and U.S. Senate offer Californians a choice between seasoned politicians and former heads of large corporations. What is more important: experience in government or experience running a business? Likely voters are evenly divided (44% experience in elected office, 43% experience running a business). Partisan affiliations are key: 63 percent of Democrats value experience in elected office more and 68 percent of Republicans value experience running a business more. Independents are more likely to favor experience in office (46%) to experience in business (39%). In an election year in which campaign financing has emerged as a prominent issue, the PPIC survey asked whether voters view more positively candidates who use mostly their own money for campaigning or those who use mostly money collected from supporters. A majority (56%) have a more positive view of candidates who use money mainly from supporters. Most Democrats (63%) and independents (56%) hold this view, as do a plurality of Republicans (44%). BOXER LEADS WHILE HER APPROVAL RATING DROPS In contrast to the governor’s race, 64 percent of likely voters say they are satisfied with their choices in the U.S. Senate race. The Senate contest was closer in July (39% Boxer, 34% Fiorina, 22% undecided) than in the current survey, completed just before the second debate between the candidates. Independent likely voters are divided in their support (34% Fiorina, 32% Boxer, 20% undecided), while they favored Boxer slightly in July (35% Boxer, 29% Fiorina, 25% undecided). Boxer has the support of more Latinos (49% Boxer, 19% Fiorina) and women (45% Boxer, 31% Fiorina), while men (39% Boxer, 40% Fiorina) and whites (38% Boxer, 41% Fiorina) are split. At the same time, incumbent Senator Boxer’s approval rating among all adults is 41 percent, matching her record low in March 2008. Across parties, her approval rating has dropped since May among Democrats (67% today, down 10 points), independents (41%, down 12 points), and Republicans (7%, down 6 points). Disapproval of her job performance is at a new high of 45 percent. APPROVAL OF FEINSTEIN, OBAMA, CONGRESS DECLINE Senator Dianne Feinstein’s approval rating among Californians has also tied her record low of 44 percent, first reached in March 2008. Her disapproval rating is at a record-high 39 percent. With midterm elections approaching, approval ratings for the president and Congress have dropped as well. President Barack Obama’s approval rating in the state is at a record-low 52 percent, although Californians feel more favorably toward him than do Americans nationwide (42% approve in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll). Californians feel much more negative about Congress: 26 percent approve, similar to Americans nationwide (21% approve in a CBS News/New York Times poll). Although Californians are more likely to approve (43%) than disapprove (39%) of their own congressional representative, this approval rating has hit a new low. About a third of state residents (32%) say the president’s economic policies have made economic conditions better, a similar proportion (28%) say his policies have made conditions worse, and 38 percent say there’s been no effect or it’s too soon to tell. About two-thirds (64%) and solid majorities across parties say Congress and the Obama administration are not doing enough to create jobs. HALF FAVOR MARIJUANA MEASURE—PROPS. 23, 24, 25 FALL SHORT OF MAJORITY Among California’s likely voters, 52 percent favor the proposition to legalize marijuana. Strong majorities of independent (65%), Democratic (63%), and Latino (63%) likely voters support Proposition 19 when read the full ballot title and label, as do those age 18–34 (70%). Half of voters (49%) say the outcome of Proposition 19 is very important, with those opposed to the initiative feeling stronger about the outcome: September 2010 Californians and Their Government 4 PPIC Statewide Survey 65 percent of those who plan to vote no say the outcome is very important, compared to 42 percent of likely voters who plan to vote yes. Likely voters are divided on Proposition 23 (43% yes, 42% no, 15% don’t know), which would suspend California’s air pollution control law (AB 32) until unemployment falls to at least 5.5 percent for a full year. The divide is reflected across parties, regions, and demographic groups. Half of Democrats (48%) would vote no, a plurality of Republicans (45%) would vote yes, and independents are split (43% no, 42% yes). Proponents of this measure—as well as the other propositions in the PPIC survey—have linked the outcome to economic recovery. Proposition 23’s advocates contend that AB 32 will cost the state large numbers of jobs in tough economic times, while opponents say the law encourages growth of green jobs. Asked what impact state actions to reduce global warming will have on jobs, a plurality (41%) of likely voters in the PPIC survey say the result will be more jobs, 24 percent say the number of jobs will not be affected, and 26 percent see fewer jobs as the result. An overwhelming majority (81%) of likely voters say the outcome of Proposition 23 is very important (45%) or somewhat important (36%) to them, with 53 percent of those who plan to vote yes and 45 percent of those who plan to vote no viewing the outcome as very important. Three in 10 (30%) likely voters are undecided about Proposition 24 (35% yes, 35% no), which would repeal recent legislation that allows businesses to lower their tax liability. Proposition 24 has neither majority support nor opposition in any political, regional, or demographic group except among likely voters age 18–34 (57% yes). The results of another survey question indicate that most likely voters are not in the mood to raise corporate taxes to ease the state’s budget problems: 50 percent oppose raising the state taxes paid by corporations while 42 percent are in favor. Almost half (48%) of likely voters would vote yes on Proposition 25, while 35 percent would vote no and 17 percent are undecided. The ballot measure would lower the two-thirds vote necessary to pass a budget in the legislature to a simple majority. But it would retain the two-thirds vote requirement to raise taxes. The measure would also require that legislators forfeit their pay and expense reimbursements when the budget is late. Democrats (52%) and independents (53%) are much more likely than Republicans (42%) to favor Proposition 25. Half of likely voters say the vote on Proposition 25 is very important, with supporters and opponents equally likely to hold this view. MORE KEY FINDINGS  State elected leaders get poor ratings, budget troubles seen as big problem—pages 17, 20 Governor Schwarzenegger’s 28 percent approval rating is up somewhat from his record-low 23 percent. The legislature’s 16 percent approval is near its record low of 14 percent. Just 31 percent of residents and 30 percent of likely voters approve of the jobs their own legislative representatives are doing. And 80 percent of Californians view the state budget situation as a big problem.  Majority favor path to citizenship for illegal immigrant workers—page 22 Most Californians (66%) say illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the U.S. for at least two years should be given a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status, while 30 percent say these immigrants should be deported to their native countries. Over half of Californians (54%) say immigrants are a benefit to the state and 39 percent say immigrants are a burden.  Record-high 52 percent support gay marriage—page 23 Half of Californians (52%) and likely voters (53%) favor allowing same-sex couples to marry, the highest percentage since PPIC began tracking the issue in 2000. But they are divided (46% agree, 48% disagree) over a federal judge’s ruling that Proposition 8—which banned gay marriage—is unconstitutional. September 2010 Californians and Their Government 5 NOVEMBER 2010 ELECTION KEY FINDINGS  The governor’s race remains tight: 37 percent of likely voters would vote for Jerry Brown, 38 percent would vote for Meg Whitman, and 18 percent are undecided. Only 45 percent are satisfied with their choices of candidates for governor. (page 7)  In the U.S. senate race, Barbara Boxer holds a 7-point lead over Carly Fiorina. The percentage of undecided likely voters is down 5 points from July. Over six in 10 are satisfied with their choices of candidates in this election. (page 8)  Likely voters are split over their preference for candidates with experience either in elected office or running a business. Candidates who fund their campaigns with money from supporters rather than with their own money are viewed more positively. (page 9)  Fifty-two percent of likely voters say they will vote in favor of Proposition 19, which would legalize marijuana in the state. Half view the outcome of the proposition as very important. (page 10)  On Proposition 23, which would suspend California’s air pollution control law (AB 32), 43 percent of likely voters would vote yes, 42 percent would vote no, and 16 percent are undecided. (page 11)  Likely voters are divided on Proposition 24, which would repeal a law that grants businesses a lower tax liability. Three in 10 are undecided. (page 12)  Nearly half of likely voters are in favor of Proposition 25, which would change the legislative vote requirement to pass a budget from two-thirds to a simple majority. Half consider the outcome of Proposition 25 very important. (page 13) September 2010 Californians and Their Government Percent likely voters Percent likely voters Percent likely voters Governor's Race 70 60 50 40 37 34 30 23 20 10 6 0 July Jerry Brown Meg Whitman Other candidates Don't know 37 38 18 7 September U.S. Senate Race 70 60 50 40 39 34 30 20 22 10 5 0 July Barbara Boxer Carly Fiorina Other candidates Don't know 42 35 17 6 September Percent Supporting State Ballot Initiatives 70 60 52 50 43 48 40 35 30 20 10 0 Prop 19 Prop 23 Prop 24 Marijuana AB 32 Business Legalization Suspension Tax Liability Prop 25 Majority Budget Vote 6 PPIC Statewide Survey GOVERNOR’S RACE With just over a month until the November general election, the governor’s race remains close (38% Whitman, 37% Brown, 18% undecided; July: 34% Whitman, 37% Brown, 23% undecided). Although support follows party lines, Whitman is favored more by Republicans (71%)—up slightly since July (67%)—than Brown is by Democrats (63% today, 64% July). Independents now prefer Whitman over Brown by 8 points; in July they were split (28% Whitman, 30% Brown). Seven in 10 liberals and a plurality of moderates favor Brown; two-thirds of conservatives favor Whitman. Brown is favored in the San Francisco Bay Area while Whitman is favored in the Other Southern California region and the Central Valley; Los Angeles voters are divided (35% Brown, 32% Whitman). Latinos are 7 points more likely to favor Brown; in July they were 24 points more likely. Whites are somewhat more likely to prefer Whitman (43%) over Brown (38%). Men are now split; in July they preferred Whitman by 7 points. Women today are also divided, but favored Brown by 12 points in July. “If the November 2nd election for governor were being held today, would you vote for…?” Likely voters only Jerry Brown Meg Whitman Other candidates* Don’t know All Likely Voters 37% 38% 7% 18% Democrats 63 13 5 19 Party Republicans 10 71 5 14 Independents 30 38 13 19 Central Valley 32 47 3 18 San Francisco Bay Area 50 29 8 13 Region Los Angeles 35 32 12 21 Other Southern California 33 45 5 17 Gender Race/ethnicity Men Women Latinos Whites 39 39 8 14 35 37 6 22 32 25 17 26 38 43 3 16 * For full list of candidates, see question 7 on page 28 About eight in 10 likely voters say they are following news about the governor’s election very (30%) or fairly (51%) closely. Republicans (36%) are more likely than Democrats (27%) to say very closely. Among those following the news very closely, Whitman receives more support than Brown. In September 2006, before the last governor’s race, 17 percent said that they followed election news very closely. Half report they are not satisfied with their choices of candidates for governor. Half of Democrats and Republicans say they are satisfied, while 56 percent of independents are not satisfied. “In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for governor on November 2nd?” Likely voters only All Likely Voters Dem Party Rep Ind Satisfied 45% 48% 48% 39% Not satisfied 49 46 47 56 Don’t know 6 6 5 5 Latinos 48% 48 4 September 2010 Californians and Their Government 7 PPIC Statewide Survey U.S. SENATE RACE Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer holds a 7-point lead over Republican Carly Fiorina in the U.S. senate race, with 17 percent of likely voters undecided. In July, the race was closer (39% Boxer, 34% Fiorina, 22% undecided). Today, Democrats (72%) support Boxer at much the same level as they did in July (68%); Republican support for Fiorina is also consistent (72% today, 72% July). Independents are currently divided in their support for Fiorina (34%) and Boxer (32%); in July, independents were somewhat more likely to prefer Boxer (35%) over Fiorina (29%). Boxer receives overwhelming support from liberals (74%) while 66 percent of conservatives favor Fiorina. A plurality of moderates say they will vote for Boxer (46%) rather than Fiorina (25%). Six in 10 likely voters in the San Francisco Bay Area and a plurality in Los Angeles (44%) say they will vote for Boxer, while half in the Other Southern California region and a plurality in the Central Valley (39%) support Fiorina. Latinos and women are much more likely to support Boxer, while men and whites are divided. Boxer holds a plurality of support among younger and middle-aged voters; older voters are split. “If the November 2nd election for U.S. senate were being held today, would you vote for…?” Likely voters only Barbara Boxer Carly Fiorina Other candidates* Don’t know All Likely Voters 42% 35% 6% 17% Democrats 72 8 6 14 Party Republicans 8 72 3 17 Independents 32 34 14 20 Central Valley 28 39 6 27 San Francisco Bay Area 58 24 4 14 Region Los Angeles 44 28 8 20 Other Southern California 35 48 7 10 Gender Race/ethnicity Men Women Latinos Whites 39 40 10 11 45 31 5 19 49 19 11 21 38 41 5 16 * For full list of candidates, see question 10 on page 28. Sixty-four percent of likely voters are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the election for U.S. senate. In this race, majorities across parties are satisfied with their choices, but Democrats are the most likely to say this. Among those who say they are satisfied, half say they will vote for Boxer, while four in 10 favor Fiorina. At least six in 10 across demographic groups express satisfaction with their choices. “In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for U.S. Senator on November 2nd?” Likely voters only All Likely Voters Dem Party Rep Ind Satisfied 64% 71% 62% 54% Not satisfied 29 24 29 38 Don’t know 7 5 9 8 Latinos 67% 25 8 September 2010 Californians and Their Government 8 PPIC Statewide Survey CANDIDATE QUALITIES In the races for governor and U.S. senate, voters are offered a choice between seasoned politicians and former chief executive officers of large corporations. Is experience in elected office or experience running a business more important? On this question likely voters are evenly divided. Democrats (63%) and a plurality of independents (46%) view experience in elected office as more important, while Republicans (68%) say experience running a business is more important. Two-thirds of liberals and half of moderates believe that having been in elected office is more important; two-thirds of conservatives view running a business as more important. Half of Latinos think experience in elected office is more important, while whites are divided (45% business, 41% elected office). A plurality of women prefer a candidate with experience in office, whereas a plurality of men prefer a candidate with experience running a business. Among those who favor experience in office, 62 percent support Jerry Brown for governor and 66 percent prefer Barbara Boxer for senate; among those who prefer a candidate with business experience, 66 percent support Meg Whitman for governor and 63 percent support Carly Fiorina for senate. “People have different ideas about the qualifications they want when they vote for candidates for statewide office, such as governor or U.S. senator. Which of these is most important to you…?” Likely voters only Experience in elected office Experience running a business Neither (volunteered) All Likely Voters 44% 43 5 Dem 63% 26 5 Party Rep 19% 68 3 Ideology Ind Liberal Moderate Conservative 46% 66% 51% 22% 39 19 38 66 67 4 3 Both (volunteered) 6 667 6 5 7 Don’t know 2 –42 2 2 2 Meg Whitman has broken spending records to finance her own gubernatorial campaign while Jerry Brown is heavily relying on outside supporters for his funding. How do voters view different approaches to campaign spending? A majority have a more positive view of candidates who use mostly money from their supporters rather than their own money to pay for political campaigning. Majorities of Democrats and independents view using money from supporters more favorably, as do a plurality of Republicans. Nearly half of voters who view candidates more positively if they use their own money favor Whitman and nearly half of those who think using supporters’ money is better prefer Brown. In the senate race, 40 percent of those who think candidates should use their own money favor Carly Fiorina, and 51 percent of those favoring the use of supporters’ money would vote for Barbara Boxer. “People have different ideas on how candidates for statewide office should pay for their political campaigns. Which of these do you view most positively? A candidate using mostly his or her own money to pay for political campaigning, or a candidate using mostly money collected from his or her supporters to pay for political campaigning?” Likely voters only All Likely Voters Dem Party Rep Ind Liberal Ideology Moderate Conservative His or her own money Money collected from supporters Don’t know 32% 30% 36% 35% 27% 32% 37% 56 63 44 56 66 59 45 12 7 20 9 7 9 18 September 2010 Californians and Their Government 9 PPIC Statewide Survey PROPOSITION 19—MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION When read the ballot title and label for Proposition 19—an initiative on the November ballot that would legalize marijuana in California and allow it to be regulated and taxed—52 percent of likely voters are in favor. Forty-one percent are opposed and 7 percent are undecided. The propensity to vote in favor of the initiative follows party lines: Strong majorities of Democrats and independents favor it, while a strong majority of Republicans oppose it. At least half in the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, and the Other Southern California region support legalization, while a majority in the Central Valley do not. Latinos (63%) are much more likely than whites (50%) to say they would vote yes on the initiative. Young adults (70%) overwhelmingly support the proposition; those 35 and older are divided. “Proposition 19 is called the ‘Legalizes Marijuana Under California but Not Federal Law. Permits Local Governments to Regulate and Tax Commercial Production, Distribution, and Sale of Marijuana. Initiative Statute.’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 19?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All Likely Voters 52% 41% 7% Party Democrats Republicans 63 29 32 62 8 6 Independents 65 31 4 Gender Men Women 55 39 49 43 6 8 Race/ethnicity Latinos Whites 63 33 50 43 4 7 18–34 Age 35–54 55 and older 70 22 49 44 47 46 8 7 7 * For complete text of proposition question, see page 29. Half of likely voters think the outcome of Proposition 19 is very important and three in 10 see it as somewhat important. Republicans are the most likely to say the outcome is very important while independents are the least likely. Those opposed to the initiative feel more strongly about the outcome: 65 percent of no voters say the outcome is very important, compared to 42 percent of yes voters. “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 19?” All Likely Party Vote on Proposition 19 Voters Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 49% 48% 55% 43% 42% 65% Somewhat important 31 32 28 36 37 22 Not too important 13 15 11 11 16 7 Not at all important 5 4 3 8 4 5 Don’t know 213211 Asked a generic question about support for marijuana legalization, 51 percent of likely voters are in favor while 45 percent oppose. Support among parties tracks support for the proposition, with strong majorities of Democrats and independents in favor of legalization, and a strong majority of Republicans opposed. September 2010 Californians and Their Government 10 PPIC Statewide Survey PROPOSITION 23—AB 32 SUSPENSION Likely voters are divided over Proposition 23, which would suspend California’s air pollution control law (AB 32) until unemployment falls to at least 5.5 percent for a full year. When read the full title and label, 43 percent of voters favor the initiative, 42 percent oppose it, and 15 percent are undecided. The divide is reflected across parties, regions, and demographic groups. Nearly half of Democrats say they would vote no on the suspension of AB 32, a plurality of Republicans say they would vote yes, and independents are divided. A majority of Latinos favor the initiative, while a plurality of whites oppose it. Half of voters in the Other Southern California region support the initiative, while a plurality in the Central Valley oppose it; San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles voters are more divided. The percentage saying they would vote yes decreases with age. “Proposition 23 is called the ‘Suspends Implementation of Air Pollution Control Law (AB 32) Requiring Major Sources of Emissions to Report and Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions That Cause Global Warming, Until Unemployment Drops to 5.5 Percent or Less for Full Year. Initiative Statute.’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 23?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All Likely Voters 43% 42% 15% Party Democrats Republicans 40 48 12 45 35 20 Independents 42 43 15 Gender Men Women 46 44 10 39 40 21 Race/Ethnicity Latinos Whites 54 36 10 38 45 17 * For complete text of proposition question, see page 29. Proponents of Proposition 23 contend that AB 32 will cost the state large numbers of jobs in a time of economic insecurity, while opponents think AB 32 is spurring growth in green jobs. In general, what effect do voters think state action to reduce global warming would have on jobs? A plurality say it would result in more jobs, 24 percent think there would be no effect, and 26 percent think there would be fewer jobs. Of Proposition 23 yes-voters, 31 percent say fewer jobs would result from state action on global warming, 38 percent think there will be more jobs, and 24 percent say jobs would not be affected. Half of no-voters say state action would result in more jobs. “Next, do you think that California doing things to reduce global warming in the future would cause there to be more jobs for people around the state, would cause there to be fewer jobs, or wouldn’t affect the number of jobs for people around the state?” All Likely Party Vote on Proposition 23 Voters Dem Rep Ind Yes No More jobs 41% 60% 18% 42% 38% 49% Fewer jobs 26 11 45 25 31 22 Wouldn’t affect number of jobs 24 20 29 25 24 24 Don’t know 998875 Eight in 10 say the outcome of Proposition 23 is either very (45%) or somewhat (36%) important. Half of Democrats say it is very important, as do four in 10 Republicans and independents. Fifty-three percent of yes-voters and 45 percent of no-voters say the outcome is very important. September 2010 Californians and Their Government 11 PPIC Statewide Survey PROPOSITION 24—BUSINESS TAX LIABILITY Of the four ballot propositions included in this survey, likely voters are the most undecided about Proposition 24, which would repeal recent legislation allowing businesses to lower their tax liability. After being read the ballot title and label, 35 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 35 percent would vote no, and 30 percent are undecided. Proposition 24 currently has neither majority support nor opposition in any political, regional, or demographic group, except among likely voters age 18 to 34 (57% yes). Democrats, at just 40 percent, are much more likely than Republicans (30%) to support it. “Proposition 24 is called the ‘Repeals Recent Legislation That Would Allow Businesses to Lower Their Tax Liability. Initiative Statute.’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 24?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All Likely Voters 35% 35% 30% Party Democrats Republicans Independents 40 30 30 30 37 33 36 40 24 Gender Men Women 39 36 25 31 35 34 Race/Ethnicity Latinos Whites 47 32 21 31 35 34 Under $40,000 38 29 33 Household income $40,000 to under $80,000 34 38 28 $80,000 or more 35 37 28 * For complete text of proposition question, see page 30. Compared to the other three propositions in this survey, likely voters place the least importance on the outcome of Proposition 24. Three in 10 consider the outcome very important and four in 10 say it is somewhat important. Thirty-two percent of yes-voters and 36 percent of no-voters say the outcome is very important. Yes-voters are much more likely than no-voters to consider the outcome somewhat important. “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 24?” All Likely Party Vote on Proposition 24 Voters Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 29% 27% 30% 31% 32% 36% Somewhat important 41 43 38 44 53 43 Not too important 12 12 11 13 13 14 Not at all important 3 4 3 4 2 6 Don’t know 15 14 18 8 -- 1 According to the Legislative Analyst, this measure would repeal legislation set to take effect in 2011, thereby raising state revenues through higher taxes paid by corporations. But most likely voters are not in the mood to raise corporate taxes to aid the state’s budget: Another survey question shows that 50 percent oppose raising state taxes paid by corporations, while 42 percent favor it. An overwhelming 73 percent of Republicans are opposed, while 58 percent of Democrats are in favor. In the past, and as recently as May, support among likely voters has been higher than opposition for raising corporate taxes. September 2010 Californians and Their Government 12 PPIC Statewide Survey PROPOSITION 25—MAJORITY BUDGET VOTE California is currently one of three states that requires a supermajority vote by the legislature to pass a state budget and state taxes. Proposition 25 would lower the requirement to pass a state budget to a simple majority vote, while retaining a two-thirds vote for taxes. It would also require legislators to forfeit their pay and expenses when a budget is late. When read the ballot title and label, just under half of likely voters say they would vote yes on this proposition, 35 percent would vote no, and 17 percent are undecided. Democrats (52%) and independents (53%) are much more likely than Republicans (42%) to say they would vote yes. A majority of San Francisco Bay Area voters (54% yes, 27% no) and pluralities of voters in Los Angeles (48% yes, 35% no) and the Central Valley (42% yes, 36% no) would vote yes, while Other Southern California voters are divided (43% yes, 40% no). “Proposition 25 is called the ‘Changes Legislative Vote Requirement to Pass Budget and Budget-related Legislation from Two-Thirds to a Simple Majority. Retains Two-Thirds Vote Requirement for Taxes. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 25?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All Likely Voters 48% 35% 17% Party Democrats Republicans Independents 52 27 21 42 43 15 53 34 13 Gender Men Women 48 38 14 48 31 21 Race/Ethnicity Latinos Whites 47 39 14 49 33 18 * For complete text of proposition question, see page 30. Half of likely voters say the outcome of the vote on Proposition 25 is very important and another third say it is somewhat important. Proposition supporters and opponents are equally likely to say the outcome is very important. Republicans are more likely than Democrats and independents to hold this view. Should the legislature also shift from a supermajority to a simple majority vote for passing both a state budget and state taxes? California’s likely voters are not convinced, with 44 percent calling this a good idea and 46 percent saying it’s a bad idea. This issue deeply divides the electorate, with most Democrats saying lowering the vote requirement for both budget and taxes is a good idea and most Republicans calling it a bad one. Independents are divided on the issue. Sixty-seven percent of the likely voters supporting Proposition 25 think it’s a good idea to lower the vote requirement to pass both a budget and state taxes, while three in four no voters say it’s a bad idea. “Do you think it is a good idea or bad idea to lower the vote requirement to pass a state budget and state taxes from a two-thirds vote to a simple majority or 50 percent plus one vote?” All Likely Party Vote on Proposition 25 Voters Dem Rep Ind Yes No Good idea 44% 60% 25% 49% 67% 20% Bad idea 46 28 65 45 27 76 Don’t know 10 12 10 6 6 4 September 2010 Californians and Their Government 13 STATE AND NATIONAL ISSUES KEY FINDINGS  Californians cite jobs and the economy (62%) as the state’s most important issue. Seven in 10 think California is headed in the wrong direction, six in 10 say bad financial times are ahead, and about half say the state is in a serious recession. (pages 15, 16)  Nearly two-thirds disapprove of the governor’s job performance. The state legislature and respondents’ own state representatives receive record high disapproval ratings. (page 17)  About half of Californians approve of President Obama’s job performance—a record low—and Senators Boxer and Feinstein receive record-high disapproval ratings. Only a quarter approve of Congress, and 43 percent approve of their own congressional representative. (pages 18, 19)  Most Californians continue to view the state budget situation as a big problem. Four in 10 prefer spending cuts alone to deal with the state budget gap, while an equal share prefer a mix of cuts and tax increases. (page 20)  Residents disagree about the effects of Obama’s economic policies. Yet a strong majority think the president and Congress are not doing enough to help create jobs and six in 10 say the U.S. faces bad economic times ahead. (page 21)  Democrats and Republicans hold starkly different perceptions of immigrants in the state. (page 22)  A record high 52 percent favor allowing same-sex marriage. But Californians are divided about a federal court ruling that Proposition 8 is unconstitutional. (page 23) September 2010 Californians and Their Government Percent all adults Percent all adults Percent all adults Approval Ratings of State Elected Officals 80 Governor Legislature 60 46 50 38 40 30 28 34 34 20 21 21 16 0 Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep 06 07 08 09 10 Approval Ratings of Senators 80 Boxer Feinstein 60 53 50 51 49 48 54 51 53 44 40 48 46 45 44 41 20 0 Oct Oct Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Economic Outlook For the United States 100 Percent saying "bad times" 80 76 60 70 71 53 40 46 58 58 20 0 Oct Jun Mar Aug Jan Dec Sep 06 07 08 08 09 09 10 14 PPIC Statewide Survey OVERALL MOOD With a sluggish economy and double-digit unemployment, six in 10 Californians (62%) name jobs and the economy as the most important issue facing the state today. Far fewer mention the state budget, despite the current record-long budget stalemate. Concern about jobs and the economy nearly matches the record high reached in February 2009 (63%) and has topped the list of concerns since January 2008; it has not dropped below 50 percent since January 2009. Jobs and the economy continues to top the list of concerns—above 55 percent—across parties, regions, and demographic groups. Republicans are somewhat more likely than Democrats to mention immigration as the most important issue facing the state (9% to 2%), while Democrats (66%) are much more likely than Republicans (55%) to mention jobs and the economy. Among racial/ethnic groups, Latinos (70%) are much more likely than whites (57%) to say the economy is the most important issue, while whites (14%) are much more likely than Latinos (4%) to name the state’s budget situation. Mention of the state budget situation increases with higher income. “Thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today?” Top four issues mentioned All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind Jobs, economy 62% 66% 55% 56% State budget, deficit, taxes 11 13 16 11 Education, schools Immigration, illegal immigration 7767 5296 Likely Voters 62% 13 8 5 Seven in 10 Californians continue to think that the state is generally headed in the wrong direction, although this negative perception has dropped 10 points since July. At least two in three since June 2008 have said the state is headed in the wrong direction. The perception that the state is heading in the wrong direction is widely held across political parties, regions, and demographic groups. Although pessimism is high, some differences among groups emerge. Republicans (87%) are far more likely than independents (69%) or Democrats (68%) to say the state is headed in the wrong direction. Across regions, eight in 10 Central Valley residents (80%) agree, compared to fewer in Los Angeles (69%), the Other Southern California region (67%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (63%). Whites (74%) are much more likely than Latinos (62%) to say wrong direction; younger, less educated, and less affluent Californians are less likely than others to hold this negative view. Those who disapprove of the governor (78%) or legislature (79%) are far more likely than those who approve to say the state is going in the wrong direction. “Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Right direction 20% 20% 7% 21% 13% Wrong direction 69 68 87 69 77 Don’t know 11 12 6 10 10 September 2010 Californians and Their Government 15 PPIC Statewide Survey ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Californians’ pessimism about the state’s direction is echoed in their economic outlook. Six in 10 continue to say that the state will have bad times financially during the next year; at least 59 percent have held this view since September 2007. Although more than half across parties are pessimistic, Republicans (72%) and independents (64%) are much more likely than Democrats (54%) to hold a negative view. The belief that bad economic times lie ahead is less widely held among younger, less educated, and lower-income Californians; Latinos (47%) are far less likely than whites (68%) to think this. Good times Bad times Don’t know “Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?” All Adults 29% Under $40,000 37% Household income $40,000 to under $80,000 26% $80,000 or more 24% 59 53 61 64 12 10 13 12 Likely Voters 24% 62 14 Nearly all Californians say the state is in a recession, with 52 percent calling it a serious recession. Only 8 percent of Californians say that the state is not in a recession. Perceptions today are similar to May’s; more than half of Californians have said that the state is in a serious recession since January 2009. Democrats (50%) and independents (51%) are far less likely than Republicans (67%) to say the state is in a serious recession and half or more across regions hold this view. Whites (57%) are far more likely than Latinos (41%) to hold this view. The belief that the state is in a serious recession is far lower among those aged 18 to 34 (36%), than those aged 35 to 54 (58%) and adults 55 and older (62%). Those with a high school diploma or less (48%), and those with annual household incomes of less than $40,000 (47%) are less likely than others to say the state is in a serious recession. “Would you say that California is in an economic recession, or not? Do you think it is in a serious, a moderate, or a mild recession?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind Yes, serious recession 52% 50% 67% 51% Yes, moderate recession 29 33 24 25 Yes, mild recession 8 5 3 14 No, not in recession 8849 Don’t know 3421 Likely Voters 59% 27 5 7 2 With a negative outlook about economic conditions and most believing the state is in a recession, how concerned are Californians about the possibility of job loss? More than four in 10 Californians say they are very concerned (28%) or somewhat concerned (16%) that they or someone in their family could lose a job in the next year. Nearly half say that they are not concerned and 8 percent volunteer that their household has already experienced job loss. Concern has decreased 6 points since March and 14 points from its record high in January 2009 (58%). Today, about four in 10 Republicans (38%), Democrats (40%), and independents (43%) express concern. Across regions, Los Angeles residents (52%) express the highest concern, while San Francisco Bay Area residents express the lowest (36%). Latinos (58%) are far more likely than whites (34%) to express concern about job loss. Adults in households earning less than $40,000 are twice as likely as those earning $80,000 and over to be very concerned. September 2010 Californians and Their Government 16 PPIC Statewide Survey STATE ELECTED OFFICIALS’ APPROVAL RATINGS With a poor economy and a budget impasse that has now reached a record for tardiness, Californians continue to give poor marks to their elected officials’ job performance. Governor Schwarzenegger receives a 28 percent approval rating among all adults and likely voters, with more than six in 10 disapproving of his job performance. The governor has improved somewhat from his record low approval rating of 23 percent in May, but his disapproval rating still hovers near the record high of 65 percent reached in May. The governor’s approval rating has been below 50 percent since March 2008. Approval of the governor is low across parties (33% Republicans, 30% independents, and 25% Democrats) and regions (highest in San Francisco Bay Area, 33%; lowest in the Central Valley, 23%). Approval is higher among whites (33%) than Latinos (21%). The state legislature fares even worse than the governor, with approval near the record low of 14 percent reached in March; disapproval reaches a new record high of 75 percent. Approval has not topped 30 percent since January 2008 and disapproval has not dropped below 50 percent since December 2007. Among likely voters, an overwhelming 85 percent disapprove of the legislature. Strong majorities across parties and regions disapprove of the legislature, and whites (81%) are far more likely than Latinos (63%) to disapprove. Disapproval of the legislature increases with age, education, and income, and over eight in 10 Californians who say the state can expect bad economic times disapprove of the legislature’s job performance. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that…” All Adults Dem Party Rep …Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California? Approve Disapprove Don't know 28% 25% 33% 64 70 61 856 …the California Legislature is handling its job? Approve Disapprove Don't know 16 14 8 75 79 87 975 Ind 30% 63 7 16 77 7 Likely Voters 28% 66 6 11 85 4 Californians’ approval of their individual state legislators’ job performance remains low at 31 percent, with 56 percent disapproving. Likely voters are even more likely to disapprove of their individual assembly or state senate representative. Among all adults, approval is near the low of 27 percent in March, and disapproval has reached a new high. Today, Democrats (53%) are much less likely than independents (63%) and Republicans (69%) to disapprove. Majorities across regions disapprove of their state legislators. Whites (59%) are more likely than Latinos (50%) to disapprove, men (57%) and women (56%) hold similar views, and disapproval increases with rising age. Approve Disapprove Don't know “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that the state legislators representing your assembly and senate districts are doing at this time?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 31% 38% 21% 26% 56 53 69 63 13 9 10 11 Likely Voters 30% 63 7 September 2010 Californians and Their Government 17 PPIC Statewide Survey FEDERAL ELECTED OFFICIALS’ APPROVAL RATINGS Amid a sluggish economy and with midterm elections quickly approaching, approval of President Obama’s job performance has reached another record low—52 percent—and his disapproval reaches a record high—43 percent. Approval of the president’s performance among adults is down 4 points from July and is 11 points lower than September 2009. Californians are more approving than Americans nationwide, according to a recent CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll (42% approve, 54% disapprove). For the first time since the president took office, California likely voters are equally divided in their ratings of him (48% approve, 48% disapprove). Three in four Democrats (75%) approve, while an overwhelming majority of Republicans (85%) disapprove. Half of independents approve of Obama’s job performance. Approval is down 7 points among Democrats since last September, 9 points among independents, and 18 points among Republicans. Approval is highest in the San Francisco Bay Area (61%) and lowest in the Central Valley (45%). Latinos (62%) are more likely than whites (44%) to approve. Just one in four approve and two in three disapprove of Congress. Both approval and disapproval are near records first reached in October 2008 (23% approve, 71% disapprove), prior to the last general election. Californians’ approval of Congress is just higher than approval held by Americans nationwide, according to a CBS News/New York Times poll (21% approve, 70% disapprove). Across parties in California, Democrats (29%) and independents (24%) are much more likely than Republicans (10%) to approve of Congress. Regionally, approval of Congress ranges from a low of 21 percent in the Central Valley to a high of 29 percent in the Other Southern California region. Latinos (36%) are far more likely than whites (20%) to approve; approval is higher among younger, less educated, and less affluent adults. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that…” All Adults Dem Party Rep … Barack Obama is handling his job as president of the United States? Approve Disapprove Don't know 52% 75% 11% 43 20 85 554 … the U.S. Congress is handling its job? Approve Disapprove Don't know 26 29 10 66 63 87 883 Ind 50% 46 4 24 72 4 Likely Voters 48% 48 4 21 74 5 When it comes to their own congressional representatives, Californians are slightly more likely to approve (43%) than disapprove (39%), but approval and disapproval are each at record levels. Just under half of likely voters approve, 5 points lower than in September 2008. Approval among all adults has decreased 13 points since last September (56%). Today, Democrats (52%) are far more likely than Republicans (34%) to approve, while independents are divided (42% approve, 41% disapprove). Approval of individual representatives is highest in the San Francisco Bay Area (48%) and lowest in the Central Valley (35%). Approve Disapprove Don't know “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the U.S. House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind 43% 52% 34% 42% 47% 39 34 53 41 42 18 14 13 17 11 September 2010 Californians and Their Government 18 PPIC Statewide Survey FEDERAL ELECTED OFFICIALS’ APPROVAL RATINGS (CONTINUED) Facing a competitive challenge for her fourth term as U.S. senator, Barbara Boxer has a 41 percent job approval rating, matching her record low from March 2008. Her approval has dropped 9 points since May (50%) and 12 points since last September (53%). Disapproval (45%) has reached a record high. Across parties today, Senator Boxer’s approval has dropped since May among Democrats (67% today, down 10 points), Republicans (7% today, down 6 points), and independents (41% today, down 12 points). Among likely voters, 43 percent approve of Senator Boxer. Prior to her last re-election bid in 2004, likely voters were 11 points more likely to express approval (54% October 2004). Senator Boxer receives her highest job approval rating in the San Francisco Bay Area (50%) and her lowest in the Central Valley (30%). Latinos (45%) are 9 points more approving than whites (36%), while whites (53%) are 18 points more disapproving than Latinos (45%). Although men (39%) and women (43%) hold similar levels of approval, men (49%) are more likely than women (41%) to disapprove. Disapproval increases with older age. Among Californians who approve of President Obama or Congress, two in three also approve of Senator Boxer; among those who approve of Senator Dianne Feinstein three in four also approve of Senator Boxer. Approve Disapprove Don't know “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barbara Boxer is handling her job as U.S. senator?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 41% 67% 7% 41% 45 24 88 46 14 9 5 13 Likely Voters 43% 52 5 Approval of Senator Feinstein has tied her low of 44 percent first reached in March 2008, and disapproval has set a new record high of 39 percent. Approval has decreased 6 points since May and 10 points since last September. Today, Democrats (67%) are far more likely than independents (42%) or Republicans (18%) to approve of her job performance. Her approval among partisans has dipped since May among Democrats (down 5 points), Republicans (down 5 points) and independents (down 7 points). Across regions, residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (53%) are the most approving followed by those in Los Angeles (50%), the Other Southern California region (38%) and the Central Valley (37%). Once again, Latinos (50%) are more approving than whites (41%), and whites (46%) are far more disapproving than Latinos (27%). Women are somewhat more likely to approve (44%) than disapprove (37%), while men are divided (43% approve, 41% disapprove). About two in three of those who approve of President Obama or Congress also approve of Senator Feinstein. Among those who approve of Senator Boxer, eight in 10 also approve of Senator Feinstein. Approve Disapprove Don't know “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Dianne Feinstein is handling her job as U.S. senator?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 44% 67% 18% 42% 39 20 74 44 17 13 8 14 Likely Voters 49% 44 7 September 2010 Californians and Their Government 19 PPIC Statewide Survey STATE BUDGET Facing a record-long stalemate over the 2010–2011 budget and a projected $19 billion deficit, the vast majority of Californians (80%) say the state budget situation is a big problem. Another 17 percent say it is somewhat of a problem and just 2 percent say it is not a problem. Since January 2008, more than six in 10 Californians have said the state’s budget situation is a big problem. Today, more than three in four across parties and regions consider it a big problem. Strong majorities across demographic groups agree, although Latinos are far less likely than whites (64% to 87%) to hold this view. Those who are aged 18 to 34, have a high school education or less, or make less than $40,000 a year are less likely than older, more educated, and higher-income Californians to say the budget situation is a big problem. “…Do you think the state budget situation in California—that is, the balance between government spending and revenues—is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Big problem 80% 85% 92% 82% 90% Somewhat of a problem 17 13 8 17 9 Not a problem 21–11 Don’t know 11– – – Californians are divided about the best way to deal with the state’s budget deficit. Four in 10 say the gap should be closed mostly through spending cuts and four in 10 say a mix of spending cuts and tax increases is needed. Very few (7%) believe mostly tax increases should be used or that it’s okay for the state to borrow money and run a deficit (7%). Since last December, Californians have expressed divided views about using spending cuts or a mix of spending cuts and tax increases. A strong majority of Republicans favor using mostly spending cuts to deal with the gap, while about half of Democrats and pluralities of independents prefer a mix of cuts and taxes. Across regions, San Francisco Bay Area residents are the most likely to say both cuts and taxes are needed, while Other Southern California residents are the most likely to say mostly spending cuts should be made. Central Valley residents are more divided, while Los Angeles residents slightly prefer spending cuts alone. Whites, men, and woman are divided, with about four in 10 in each group preferring cuts and about the same proportion preferring a mix. Four in 10 Latinos prefer cuts, but fewer (33%) prefer a mix, and 15 percent say it’s okay for the state to borrow money and run a deficit. “How would you prefer to deal with the state's budget gap—mostly through spending cuts, mostly through tax increases, through a mix of spending cuts and tax increases, or do you think that it is okay for the state to borrow money and run a budget deficit?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Mostly spending cuts 40% 26% 66% 35% 43% Mix of spending cuts and tax increases 40 51 26 43 42 Mostly tax increases 7 11 1 7 7 Okay to borrow money and run a deficit 7 4 1 10 3 Other 2 132 2 Don’t know 4 733 3 September 2010 Californians and Their Government 20 PPIC Statewide Survey FEDERAL ECONOMIC POLICY Most Californians (58%) say the United States will have bad economic times in the next year; just one in three predict good times. A recent CBS News/New York Times survey found adults nationwide expressing nearly identical views about the country’s direction (33% right direction, 60% wrong track). Findings in California were identical last December, whereas in August 2008, heading into the presidential election, residents were much more pessimistic (70% bad times, 23% good times). Among likely voters today, 63 percent expect bad financial times, 4 points lower than last December (67%). Across parties, Republicans (79%) are far more likely than independents (61%) and Democrats (53%) to think the country faces bad times. Whites are far more pessimistic than Latinos (67% to 46% bad times). Pessimism increases with rising age and income; it is lower among those with a high school education or less than it is among those with at least some college. Californians disagree about the effect that Barack Obama’s economic policies have had on the U.S. economy. About three in 10 say the policies have made conditions better; about the same proportion say his policies have made conditions worse and nearly four in 10 say they have had no effect so far or volunteer that it is too soon to tell. Since we first asked this question last December, fewer say there has been no effect and more say the policies have made things worse (December 2009: 31% better, 21% worse, 46% no effect yet; today: 32% better, 28% worse, 38% no effect yet). Half of Democrats (49%) believe Obama’s policies have helped, while a strong majority of Republicans (67%) believe they’ve hurt. A plurality of independents say there has been no effect so far or that it is too soon to tell. Better Worse No effect so far/ too soon to tell Don’t know “Next, since taking office, have Barack Obama’s economic policies made economic conditions better, worse, or not had an effect so far?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 32% 49% 7% 28% 28 9 67 26 38 40 25 45 2211 Likely Voters 32% 33 33 2 Jobs and the economy are the main focal point of most candidates’ election campaigns. Nearly two in three Californians, and solid majorities across parties, think that Congress and the Obama administration are not doing enough to create jobs. Attitudes about job creation are similar to March when 61 percent said Congress and the Obama administration were not doing enough. Across parties, Democrats (58%) and independents (62%) are far less likely than Republicans (85%) to say not enough is being done. Majorities across regions and demographic groups hold this view, with San Francisco Bay Area residents less negative than residents in other regions, and Latinos (59%) much less negative than whites (70%). “Overall, do you think that Congress and the Obama administration are doing more than enough, just enough, or not enough to help create jobs?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind More than enough 7% 7% 5% 4% Just enough 26 32 6 30 Not enough 64 58 85 62 Don’t know 3344 Likely Voters 6% 23 68 3 September 2010 Californians and Their Government 21 PPIC Statewide Survey IMMIGRATION The debate over comprehensive immigration reform has received increased attention in recent months, in part because of the passage of Arizona’s strict immigration law, SB 1070. Although Congress has yet to act on comprehensive reform, how do Californians perceive immigrants in their state? More than half view immigrants as a benefit because of their hard work and job skills. Four in 10 say immigrants are a burden because they use public services. The percentage saying immigrants are a benefit is the same as in March and similar to last September (58%). Likely voters are divided (47% benefit, 44% burden). Across parties, Democrats (62%) and independents (54%) call immigrants a benefit while two in three Republicans say a burden. Los Angeles (61%) and San Francisco Bay Area (59%) residents are much more likely than Other Southern California (49%) and Central Valley (47%) residents to view immigrants as a benefit. Views among Latinos and whites sharply diverge: 83 percent of Latinos think immigrants are a benefit, compared to 39 percent of whites. “…which statement comes closest to your own view—even if neither is exactly right. Immigrants today are a benefit to California because of their hard work and job skills or Immigrants today are a burden to California because they use public services.” All Adults Dem Party Rep Latinos Ind Immigrants are a benefit to California 54% 62% 21% 54% 83% Immigrants are a burden to California 39 32 66 40 14 Don’t know 7 6 13 6 3 A strong majority of California adults (66%) and likely voters (61%) think most illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the United States for at least two years should be given a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status; three in 10 adults and 35 percent of likely voters believe they should be deported back to their native countries. The percentage who say illegal immigrants should have a chance to keep their jobs is at an all-time low in the PPIC Statewide Survey, but is somewhat similar to the last time we asked the question in March (70%). Of Californians who view immigrants as a benefit to the state, 87 percent say they should keep their jobs; 57 percent of those who say immigrants are a burden also say illegal immigrants should be deported. There are sharp partisan differences in preferences for what should happen to illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the U.S. for at least two years: Three in four Democrats and six in 10 independents think they should have a chance to keep their jobs, while half of Republicans think they should be deported. Nearly eight in 10 of those who have immigrated to the United States think there should be a chance to keep jobs, as do 62 percent of those born in the United States. Majorities of Latinos and whites prefer that illegal immigrants be given a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status, but nearly nine in 10 Latinos hold this view compared to far fewer whites (59%). “If you had to choose, what do you think should happen to most illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the United States for at least two years? They should be given a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status or they should be deported back to their native country?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Latinos Ind Chance to keep their jobs 66% 77% 44% 61% 87% Deported back to their native country 30 20 51 35 11 Don’t know 43542 September 2010 Californians and Their Government 22 PPIC Statewide Survey SAME-SEX MARRIAGE Half of Californians (52% favor, 42% oppose) and likely voters (53% favor, 42% oppose) favor allowing same-sex couples to marry—a record high for both groups. The PPIC Statewide Survey has tracked this contentious issue since January 2000, just before voters passed an initiative defining marriage as between a man and a woman. At that time, most opposed allowing gay marriage, but since August 2005, opinion has been more divided. This March, support reached 50 percent for the first time, with 45 percent opposed. Support is divided along party lines; independents are in favor. A strong majority of upper-income adults (64%) favor allowing same-sex marriage, whereas others are divided. Californians who have never married are much more likely than married residents to express support (66% to 47%). Most evangelical Christians (66%) oppose allowing same-sex marriage. “Do you favor or oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to be legally married?” Favor Oppose Don’t Know All adults 52% 42% 6% Democrat 68 28 4 Party Republican 29 64 7 Independent 63 31 6 Gender Men Women 49 45 55 39 6 6 Race/ethnicity Latinos Whites 47 47 57 38 6 5 18–34 63 32 5 Age 35–54 49 45 6 55 and older 45 48 7 Evangelical/born-again Christian Yes No 26 66 61 34 8 5 Likely voters 53 42 5 California voters passed Proposition 8 in November 2008, eliminating the right of same-sex couples to marry. A federal judge recently ruled that Proposition 8 is unconstitutional; initiative proponents are appealing. Californians are divided (46% agree, 48% disagree) about whether they agree with the ruling that Proposition 8 is unconstitutional. A solid majority of Democrats agree with the decision, while the vast majority of Republicans disagree. Among those who favor allowing same-sex marriage, 59 percent agree and 38 percent disagree that Proposition 8 is unconstitutional; among those who oppose allowing same-sex marriage, 34 percent agree and 63 percent disagree that it is unconstitutional. “…Proposition 8, which eliminated the right of same-sex couples to marry, was approved by voters in November 2008. Last month, a United States district court struck down Proposition 8, ruling it unconstitutional. Do you agree or disagree with the court’s ruling that Proposition 8 is unconstitutional?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Agree 46% 59% 25% 45% 42% Disagree 48 38 71 49 53 Don’t know 63465 September 2010 Californians and Their Government 23 REGIONAL MAP September 2010 Californians and Their Government 24 METHODOLOGY The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance from Nicole Willcoxon, project manager for this survey, and survey research associates Dean Bonner and Sonja Petek. The Californians and Their Government series is supported with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. We benefit from discussions with PPIC staff, foundation staff, and other policy experts; however, the methods, questions, and content of this report were solely determined by Mark Baldassare and the survey staff. Findings in this report are based on a survey of 2,004 California adult residents, including 1,804 interviewed on landline telephones and 200 interviewed on cell phones. Interviewing took place on weekday nights and weekend days between September 19 and 26, 2010. Interviews took an average of 18 minutes to complete. Landline interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible for selection and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as six times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Cell phone interviews were included in this survey to account for the growing number of Californians who use them. These interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of cell phone numbers. All cell phone numbers with California area codes were eligible for selection and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as eight times to increase the likelihood of reaching an eligible respondent. Once a cell phone user was reached, it was verified that this person was age 18 or older, a resident of California, and in a safe place to continue the survey (e.g., not driving). Cell phone respondents were offered a small reimbursement to help defray the potential cost of the call. Cell phone interviews were conducted with adults who have cell phone service only and with those who have both cell phone and landline service in the household. Landline and cell phone interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish according to respondents’ preferences. Accent on Languages, Inc. translated the survey into Spanish, with assistance from Renatta DeFever. Abt SRBI Inc. conducted the telephone interviewing. With assistance from Abt SRBI we used recent U.S. Census and state figures to compare the demographic characteristics of the survey sample with characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the census and state figures. Abt SRBI used data from the 2008 National Health Interview Survey and data from the 2005–2007 American Community Survey for California, both to estimate landline and cell phone service in California and to compare it against landline and cell phone service reported in the survey. The survey data in this report were statistically weighted to account for any differences in demographics and telephone service. The sampling error, taking design effects from weighting into consideration, is ±3 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total sample of 2,004 adults. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 3 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger: For the 1,563 registered voters, it is ±3.3 percent; for the 1,104 likely voters, it is ±3.6 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. September 2010 Californians and Their Government 25 PPIC Statewide Survey We present results for four geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, and “Other Southern California” includes Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. Residents from other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes for these less populated areas are not large enough to report separately. We present specific results for Latinos because they account for about a third of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest growing voter groups. Sample sizes for African Americans and Asian Americans are not large enough for separate analysis. We compare the opinions of registered Democrats, Republicans, and independents (those registered as “decline to state”). We also analyze the responses of likely voters—so designated by their responses to survey questions on past voting, current interest in politics, and voting intentions. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey results to those in our earlier surveys and to those in national surveys by CBS News/New York Times and by CNN/Opinion Research Corporation. September 2010 Californians and Their Government 26 QUESTIONNAIRE AND RESULTS CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT September 19–26, 2010 2,004 California Adult Residents: English, Spanish Margin of error, taking the design effect from weighting into consideration, is ±3% at 95% confidence level for total sample 1. First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today? [code, don’t read] 62% jobs, economy 11 state budget, deficit, taxes 7 education, schools 5 immigration, illegal immigration 2 crime, gangs, drugs 11 other 2 don’t know 2. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 20% right direction 69 wrong direction 11 don’t know 3. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 29% good times 59 bad times 12 don’t know 4. Would you say that California is in an economic recession, or not? (if yes: Do you think it is in a serious, a moderate, or a mild recession?) 52% yes, serious recession 29 yes, moderate recession 8 yes, mild recession 8 no 3 don’t know 4a. Are you concerned that you or someone in your family will lose their job in the next year, or not? (if yes: Are you very concerned or somewhat concerned?) 28% yes, very concerned 16 yes, somewhat 47 no 8 have lost job already (volunteered) 1 don’t know 5. Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote in California? 79% yes [ask q5a] 21 no [skip to q6b] 5a.Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or as an independent? 45% Democrat [ask q6] 31 Republican [skip to q6a] 1 another party (specify) [skip to q7] 23 independent [skip to q6b] 6. Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 51% strong 45 not very strong 4 don’t know [skip to q7] September 2010 Californians and Their Government 27 PPIC Statewide Survey 6a. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 58% strong 36 not very strong 6 don’t know [skip to q7] 6b. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party? 24% Republican Party 43 Democratic Party 27 neither (volunteered) 6 don’t know [delayed skip: if q5=no or don’t know, skip to q22] [responses recorded for questions 7 to 21 are for likely voters only] 7. If the November 2nd election for governor were being held today, would you vote for [rotate] (1) Meg Whitman, the Republican; (2) Jerry Brown, the Democrat; (3) Dale F. Ogden, the Libertarian; (4) Chelene Nightingale, the American Independent; (5) Laura Wells, the Green; (6) Carlos Alvarez, the Peace and Freedom candidate; or someone else? 38% Meg Whitman, the Republican 37 Jerry Brown, the Democrat 2 Dale F. Ogden, the Libertarian 1 Chelene Nightingale, the American Independent 2 Laura Wells, the Green 2 Carlos Alvarez, the Peace and Freedom candidate – someone else (specify) 18 don’t know 8. In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for governor on November 2nd? 45% satisfied 49 not satisfied 6 don’t know 9. How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2010 governor’s election? 30% very closely 51 fairly closely 16 not too closely 2 not at all closely 1 don’t know 10.If the November 2nd election for U.S. senate were being held today, would you vote for [rotate] (1) Carly Fiorina, the Republican; (2) Barbara Boxer, the Democrat; (3) Gail K. Lightfoot, the Libertarian; (4) Edward C. Noonan, the American Independent; (5) Duane Roberts, the Green; (6) Marsha Feinland, the Peace and Freedom candidate; or someone else? 35% Carly Fiorina, the Republican 42 Barbara Boxer, the Democrat 1 Gail K. Lightfoot, the Libertarian 1 Edward C. Noonan, the American Independent 2 Duane Roberts, the Green 1 Marsha Feinland, the Peace and Freedom candidate 1 someone else (specify) 17 don’t know 11.In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for U.S. senator on November 2nd? 64% satisfied 29 not satisfied 7 don’t know September 2010 Californians and Their Government 28 PPIC Statewide Survey [rotate questions 12 and 13] 12. People have different ideas about the qualifications they want when they vote for candidates for statewide office, such as governor or U.S. senator. Which of these is most important to you? [rotate] (1) That the candidate has experience in elected office, [or] (2) That the candidate has experience running a business? 44% experience in elected office 43 experience running a business 5 neither (volunteered) 6 both (volunteered) 2 don’t know 13. People have different ideas on how candidates for statewide office should pay for their political campaigns. Which of these do you view most positively? [rotate] (1) A candidate using mostly his or her own money to pay for political campaigning, [or] (2) A candidate using mostly money collected from his or her supporters to pay for political campaigning? 32% own money 56 money from supporters 12 don’t know Next, we have a few questions to ask you about some of the propositions on the November ballot. [rotate 4 blocks of questions randomly: (1) 14, 15; (2) 16, 17; (3) 18, 19; (4) 20, 21] 14. Proposition 19 is called the “Legalizes Marijuana Under California but Not Federal Law. Permits Local Governments to Regulate and Tax Commercial Production, Distribution, and Sale of Marijuana. Initiative Statute.” It allows people 21 years old or older to possess, cultivate, or transport marijuana for personal use. Depending on federal, state, and local government actions, fiscal impact is potential increased tax and fee revenues in the hundreds of millions of dollars annually and potential correctional savings of several tens of millions of dollars annually. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 19? 52% yes 41 no 7 don’t know 15.How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 19—is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 49% very important 31 somewhat important 13 not too important 5 not at all important 2 don’t know 16. Proposition 23 is called the “Suspends Implementation of Air Pollution Control Law (AB 32) Requiring Major Sources of Emissions to Report and Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions That Cause Global Warming, Until Unemployment Drops to 5.5 Percent or Less for Full Year. Initiative Statute.” Fiscal Impact is a likely modest net increase in overall economic activity in the state from suspension of greenhouse gases regulatory activity, resulting in a potentially significant net increase in state and local revenues. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 23? 43% yes 42 no 15 don’t know September 2010 Californians and Their Government 29 PPIC Statewide Survey 17.How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 23—is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 45% very important 36 somewhat important 10 not too important 2 not at all important 7 don’t know 18.Proposition 24 is called the “Repeals Recent Legislation That Would Allow Businesses to Lower Their Tax Liability. Initiative Statute.” Fiscal Impact is increased state revenues of about $1.3 billion each year by 2012-13 from higher taxes paid by some businesses and smaller increases in 2010-11 and 2011-12. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 24? 35% yes 35 no 30 don’t know 19.How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 24—is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 29% very important 41 somewhat important 12 not too important 3 not at all important 15 don’t know 20.Proposition 25 is called the “Changes Legislative Vote Requirement to Pass Budget and Budget-related Legislation from Two-Thirds to a Simple Majority. Retains Two-Thirds Vote Requirement for Taxes. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.” The legislature permanently forfeits daily salary and expenses until budget bill passes. Fiscal Impact is, in some years, the contents of the state budget could be changed due to the lower legislative vote requirement in this measure. The extent of changes would depend on the Legislature’s future actions. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 25? 48% yes 35 no 17 don’t know 21.How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 25—is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 49% very important 33 somewhat important 9 not too important 2 not at all important 7 don’t know Changing topics, 22.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California? 28% approve 64 disapprove 8 don’t know 23.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job? 16% approve 75 disapprove 9 don’t know September 2010 Californians and Their Government 30 PPIC Statewide Survey 24.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that the state legislators representing your assembly and senate districts are doing at this time? 31% approve 56 disapprove 13 don’t know 25.On another topic, do you think the state budget situation in California—that is, the balance between government spending and revenues—is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today? 80% big problem 17 somewhat of a problem 2 not a problem 1 don’t know 26.As you may know, the state government currently has an annual budget of around 85 billion dollars and faces a multibillion-dollar gap between spending and revenues. How would you prefer to deal with the state's budget gap—mostly through spending cuts, mostly through tax increases, through a mix of spending cuts and tax increases, or do you think that it is okay for the state to borrow money and run a budget deficit? 40% mostly through spending cuts 7 mostly through tax increases 40 mix of spending cuts and tax increases 7 okay to borrow money and run a budget deficit 2 other (specify) 4 don’t know [responses recorded for questions 27 to 30 are for likely voters] 27.[likely voters only] Do you think it is a good idea or bad idea to lower the vote requirement to pass a state budget and state taxes from a two-thirds vote to a simple majority or 50 percent plus one vote? 44% good idea 46 bad idea 10 don’t know 28.[likely voters only] Do you favor or oppose raising the state taxes paid by California corporations to address the state budget deficit? 42% favor 50 oppose 8 don’t know 29.[likely voters only] Next, do you think that California doing things to reduce global warming in the future would cause there to be more jobs for people around the state, would cause there to be fewer jobs, or wouldn’t affect the number of jobs for people around the state? 41% more jobs 26 fewer jobs 24 wouldn’t affect the number of jobs 9 don’t know 30.[likely voters only] In general, do you think the use of marijuana should be made legal, or not? 51% yes, legal 45 no, illegal 4 don’t know 31.Changing topics, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president of the United States? 52% approve 43 disapprove 5 don’t know [rotate questions 32 and 33] 32.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Dianne Feinstein is handling her job as U.S. senator? 44% approve 39 disapprove 17 don’t know 33.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barbara Boxer is handling her job as U.S. senator? 41% approve 45 disapprove 14 don’t know September 2010 Californians and Their Government 31 PPIC Statewide Survey 34.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job? 26% approve 66 disapprove 8 don’t know 35.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the U.S. House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job? 43% approve 39 disapprove 18 don’t know 36.Turning to economic conditions, do you think that during the next 12 months the United States will have good times financially or bad times? 35% good times 58 bad times 7 don’t know 37.Next, since taking office, have Barack Obama’s economic policies made economic conditions better, worse, or not had an effect so far? 32% better 28 worse 36 no effect so far 2 too soon to tell (volunteered) 2 don’t know 38.Overall, do you think that [rotate] (1) Congress [and] (2) the Obama administration are doing more than enough, just enough, or not enough to help create jobs? 7% more than enough 26 just enough 64 not enough 3 don’t know 39.On another topic, please indicate which statement comes closest to your own view—even if neither is exactly right. [rotate] (1) Immigrants today are a benefit to California because of their hard work and job skills [or] (2) Immigrants today are a burden to California because they use public services? 54% immigrants are a benefit to California 39 immigrants are a burden to California 7 don’t know 40.If you had to choose, what do you think should happen to most illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the United States for at least two years? [rotate] (1) They should be given a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status [or] (2) They should be deported back to their native country? 66% chance to keep their jobs 30 deported back to their native country 4 don’t know 41.On another topic, do you favor or oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to be legally married? 52% favor 42 oppose 6 don’t know 42. As you may know, Proposition 8, which eliminated the right of same-sex couples to marry, was approved by voters in November 2008. Last month, a United States district court struck down Proposition 8, ruling it unconstitutional. Do you agree or disagree with the court’s ruling that Proposition 8 is unconstitutional? 46% agree 48 disagree 6 don’t know September 2010 Californians and Their Government 32 PPIC Statewide Survey 43.Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 9% very liberal 23 somewhat liberal 29 middle-of-the-road 24 somewhat conservative 14 very conservative 1 don’t know 44.Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics? 25% great deal 40 fair amount 27 only a little 7 none 1 don’t know [d1-d18: demographic questions] September 2010 Californians and Their Government 33 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ruben Barrales President and Chief Executive Officer San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce Angela Blackwell Founder and Chief Executive Officer PolicyLink Paul Brest President The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Mollyann Brodie Senior Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Executive Director University of California Washington Center James E. Canales President The James Irvine Foundation Jon Cohen Director of Polling The Washington Post Matthew K. Fong Special Counsel Sheppard, Mullin, Richter & Hampton, LLP Russell Hancock President and Chief Executive Officer Joint Venture Silicon Valley Network William Hauck President California Business Roundtable Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Carol S. Larson President and Chief Executive Officer The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Monica Lozano Publisher and Chief Executive Officer La Opinión Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Dan Rosenheim News Director KPIX-TV Robert K. Ross, M.D. President and Chief Executive Officer The California Endowment Most Reverend Jaime Soto Bishop of Sacramento Roman Catholic Diocese of Sacramento Cathy Taylor Vice President and Editorial Commentary Director Orange County Register Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Emeritus Great Valley Center The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PPIC BOARD OF DIRECTORS Walter B. Hewlett, Chair Director Center for Computer Assisted Research in the Humanities Mark Baldassare President and Chief Executive Officer Public Policy Institute of California Ruben Barrales President and Chief Executive Officer San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce Maria Blanco Executive Director Chief Justice Earl Warren Institute on Race, Ethnicity and Diversity University of California, Berkeley School of Law John E. Bryson Retired Chairman and CEO Edison International Gary K. Hart Former State Senator and Secretary of Education State of California Robert M. Hertzberg Partner Mayer Brown, LLP Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs David Mas Masumoto Author and farmer Steven A. Merksamer Senior Partner Nielsen, Merksamer, Parrinello, Mueller & Naylor, LLP Constance L. Rice Co-Director The Advancement Project Thomas C. Sutton Retired Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Pacific Life Insurance Company The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research on major economic, social, and political issues. The institute’s goal is to raise public awareness and to give elected representatives and other decisionmakers a more informed basis for developing policies and programs. The institute’s research focuses on the underlying forces shaping California’s future, cutting across a wide range of public policy concerns, including economic development, education, environment and resources, governance, population, public finance, and social and health policy. PPIC is a private operating foundation. It does not take or support positions on any ballot measures or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. PPIC was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. Mark Baldassare is President and Chief Executive Officer of PPIC. Walter B. Hewlett is Chair of the Board of Directors. Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source and the copyright notice below is included. Copyright © 2010 Public Policy Institute of California All rights reserved. San Francisco, CA PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, California 94111 phone: 415.291.4400 fax: 415.291.4401 www.ppic.org survey@ppic.org PPIC SACRAMENTO CENTER Senator Office Building 1121 L Street, Suite 801 Sacramento, California 95814 phone: 916.440.1120 fax: 916.440.1121" } ["___content":protected]=> string(102) "

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" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(113) "https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2010/s_910mbs/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(8779) ["ID"]=> int(8779) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:40:47" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(4115) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(8) "S 910MBS" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(8) "s_910mbs" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(12) "S_910MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "796612" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(92206) "ppic statewide survey SEPTEMBER 2010 &Californians their government Mark Baldassare Dean Bonner Sonja Petek Nicole Willcoxon CONTENTS About the Survey 2 Press Release 3 November 2010 Election 6 State and National Issues 14 Regional Map 24 Methodology 25 Questionnaire and Results 27 in collaboration with The James Irvine Foundation ABOUT THE SURVEY The PPIC Statewide Survey series provides policymakers, the media, and the public with objective, advocacy-free information on the perceptions, opinions, and public policy preferences of California residents. Inaugurated in April 1998, this is the 109th PPIC Statewide Survey in a series that has generated a database of responses from more than 232,000 Californians. This survey is the 42nd in the Californians and Their Government series, which is conducted periodically to examine the social, economic, and political trends that influence public policy preferences and ballot choices. The series is supported with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. This survey seeks to raise public awareness, inform decisionmakers, and stimulate public discussion and debate about important state and national issues and the November general election. Poor economic conditions and a state budget impasse set the stage for this survey, which was conducted just over a month before the November general election that features competitive races for governor and U.S. senator. Several citizens’ initiatives on the ballot are linked by proponents to economic and fiscal recovery, from legalizing marijuana to suspending climate change legislation, repealing recently enacted legislation reducing business tax liability, and lowering the legislative vote threshold for passing the state budget. Despite reports that the national recession officially ended in June 2009, California continues to face double-digit unemployment—the third highest in the nation. The state also faces a fiscal crisis with its multibillion-dollar budget gap, but legislators have yet to pass a budget—three months past the constitutional deadline. As poor economic indicators persist at the national level, President Obama and Congress have been grappling over a jobs bill, the extension of tax cuts, and whether the economic stimulus has helped fuel recovery. This survey presents the responses of 2,004 adult residents throughout the state, interviewed in English or Spanish and reached by landline or cell phone. It includes findings on these topics:  The 2010 general election, including preferences for candidates in both the governor’s and U.S. senate races, satisfaction with choices of candidates in each race, and thoughts about candidate qualities; and support for, perceived importance of, and general attitudes about four propositions: Proposition 19 (legalizes marijuana under California law), Proposition 23 (suspends AB 32 implementation), Proposition 24 (repeals legislation allowing businesses to lower tax liability), and Proposition 25 (changes budget approval requirement from two-thirds to a simple majority).  State and national issues, including the direction of the state, perceptions of the economy and unemployment, and future economic outlook; approval ratings of Governor Schwarzenegger, the California Legislature, and respondents’ own state legislators; approval ratings of President Obama, Congress, U.S. Senators Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein, and respondents’ own congressional representatives; views of the severity of the state budget situation and of how to deal with it; attitudes toward the president’s economic policies and job creation efforts; opinions on immigration; and preferences regarding gay marriage.  Time trends, national comparisons, and the extent to which Californians—based on their political party affiliation, region of residence, race/ethnicity, and other demographics—may differ in their perceptions, attitudes, and preferences regarding the 2010 general election and state and national issues. This report may be downloaded free of charge from our website (www.ppic.org). For questions about the survey, please contact survey@ppic.org. View our searchable PPIC Statewide Survey database online at http://www.ppic.org/main/survAdvancedSearch.asp. September 2010 Californians and Their Government 2 PPIC Statewide Survey CONTACT Linda Strean 415-291-4412 Andrew Hattori 415-291-4417 NEWS RELEASE EMBARGOED: Do not publish or broadcast until 9:00 p.m. PDT on Wednesday, September 29, 2010. Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: http://www.ppic.org/main/pressreleaseindex.asp PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT Whitman, Brown Deadlocked—Boxer Holds Narrow Lead HALF OF VOTERS FAVOR LEGALIZING MARIJUANA, FEWER FAVOR LOWERING BUDGET THRESHOLD—THEY’RE DIVIDED ON SUSPENDING AB 32 SAN FRANCISCO, September 29, 2010—A month before the election, the races for California governor and U.S. senator are close and many likely voters are still undecided, according to a survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. In the governor’s race, Democrat Jerry Brown (37%) and Republican Meg Whitman (38%) are locked in a virtual tie among likely voters with 18 percent undecided. In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer (42%) leads Republican Carly Fiorina (35%) by 7 points, with 17 percent undecided. A sluggish national economy, double-digit unemployment, and a record-long state budget crisis are very much on the minds of Californians as the election approaches. Unconvinced by reports that the recession ended last year, nearly all residents (89%) say the state is in a recession. Asked to name the most important issue facing people in California, 62 percent say jobs and the economy—-nearly matching the record-high 63 percent who gave this answer in February 2009. More than four in 10 residents say they are very concerned or somewhat concerned that they or someone in their family could lose a job in the next year. Californians’ views of state and federal elected officials are reflected in approval ratings that are at or near record lows. And a significant number of likely voters are unhappy with the choice of candidates in the governor’s race as well. Only 45 percent are satisfied. Of four ballot propositions included in the PPIC survey, just one exceeded the 50 percent threshold of support needed for passage, and it barely did so: Proposition 19, which would legalize marijuana and allow it to be regulated and taxed in California (52% would vote yes, 41% no, 7% undecided). “Neither the candidates nor the ballot measures have captured the imagination of the California electorate,” says Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO. “There’s consensus about the problems, and voters are looking for a game-changer. They don’t see one on this ballot.” MORE INDEPENDENTS FAVOR WHITMAN The survey—completed just before a series of televised debates between the candidates—reveals a governor’s race that remains close among likely voters, as it was in July (34% Whitman, 37% Brown, 23% undecided). Independents were divided in July (30% Brown, 28% Whitman, 30% undecided) but have shifted toward Whitman (38% Whitman, 30% Brown, 19% undecided). Whitman is favored more by Republicans (71%) than Brown is by Democrats (63%). September 2010 Californians and Their Government 3 PPIC Statewide Survey IS EXPERIENCE IN BUSINESS OR POLITICS MORE IMPORTANT? VOTERS DIVIDED The elections for governor and U.S. Senate offer Californians a choice between seasoned politicians and former heads of large corporations. What is more important: experience in government or experience running a business? Likely voters are evenly divided (44% experience in elected office, 43% experience running a business). Partisan affiliations are key: 63 percent of Democrats value experience in elected office more and 68 percent of Republicans value experience running a business more. Independents are more likely to favor experience in office (46%) to experience in business (39%). In an election year in which campaign financing has emerged as a prominent issue, the PPIC survey asked whether voters view more positively candidates who use mostly their own money for campaigning or those who use mostly money collected from supporters. A majority (56%) have a more positive view of candidates who use money mainly from supporters. Most Democrats (63%) and independents (56%) hold this view, as do a plurality of Republicans (44%). BOXER LEADS WHILE HER APPROVAL RATING DROPS In contrast to the governor’s race, 64 percent of likely voters say they are satisfied with their choices in the U.S. Senate race. The Senate contest was closer in July (39% Boxer, 34% Fiorina, 22% undecided) than in the current survey, completed just before the second debate between the candidates. Independent likely voters are divided in their support (34% Fiorina, 32% Boxer, 20% undecided), while they favored Boxer slightly in July (35% Boxer, 29% Fiorina, 25% undecided). Boxer has the support of more Latinos (49% Boxer, 19% Fiorina) and women (45% Boxer, 31% Fiorina), while men (39% Boxer, 40% Fiorina) and whites (38% Boxer, 41% Fiorina) are split. At the same time, incumbent Senator Boxer’s approval rating among all adults is 41 percent, matching her record low in March 2008. Across parties, her approval rating has dropped since May among Democrats (67% today, down 10 points), independents (41%, down 12 points), and Republicans (7%, down 6 points). Disapproval of her job performance is at a new high of 45 percent. APPROVAL OF FEINSTEIN, OBAMA, CONGRESS DECLINE Senator Dianne Feinstein’s approval rating among Californians has also tied her record low of 44 percent, first reached in March 2008. Her disapproval rating is at a record-high 39 percent. With midterm elections approaching, approval ratings for the president and Congress have dropped as well. President Barack Obama’s approval rating in the state is at a record-low 52 percent, although Californians feel more favorably toward him than do Americans nationwide (42% approve in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll). Californians feel much more negative about Congress: 26 percent approve, similar to Americans nationwide (21% approve in a CBS News/New York Times poll). Although Californians are more likely to approve (43%) than disapprove (39%) of their own congressional representative, this approval rating has hit a new low. About a third of state residents (32%) say the president’s economic policies have made economic conditions better, a similar proportion (28%) say his policies have made conditions worse, and 38 percent say there’s been no effect or it’s too soon to tell. About two-thirds (64%) and solid majorities across parties say Congress and the Obama administration are not doing enough to create jobs. HALF FAVOR MARIJUANA MEASURE—PROPS. 23, 24, 25 FALL SHORT OF MAJORITY Among California’s likely voters, 52 percent favor the proposition to legalize marijuana. Strong majorities of independent (65%), Democratic (63%), and Latino (63%) likely voters support Proposition 19 when read the full ballot title and label, as do those age 18–34 (70%). Half of voters (49%) say the outcome of Proposition 19 is very important, with those opposed to the initiative feeling stronger about the outcome: September 2010 Californians and Their Government 4 PPIC Statewide Survey 65 percent of those who plan to vote no say the outcome is very important, compared to 42 percent of likely voters who plan to vote yes. Likely voters are divided on Proposition 23 (43% yes, 42% no, 15% don’t know), which would suspend California’s air pollution control law (AB 32) until unemployment falls to at least 5.5 percent for a full year. The divide is reflected across parties, regions, and demographic groups. Half of Democrats (48%) would vote no, a plurality of Republicans (45%) would vote yes, and independents are split (43% no, 42% yes). Proponents of this measure—as well as the other propositions in the PPIC survey—have linked the outcome to economic recovery. Proposition 23’s advocates contend that AB 32 will cost the state large numbers of jobs in tough economic times, while opponents say the law encourages growth of green jobs. Asked what impact state actions to reduce global warming will have on jobs, a plurality (41%) of likely voters in the PPIC survey say the result will be more jobs, 24 percent say the number of jobs will not be affected, and 26 percent see fewer jobs as the result. An overwhelming majority (81%) of likely voters say the outcome of Proposition 23 is very important (45%) or somewhat important (36%) to them, with 53 percent of those who plan to vote yes and 45 percent of those who plan to vote no viewing the outcome as very important. Three in 10 (30%) likely voters are undecided about Proposition 24 (35% yes, 35% no), which would repeal recent legislation that allows businesses to lower their tax liability. Proposition 24 has neither majority support nor opposition in any political, regional, or demographic group except among likely voters age 18–34 (57% yes). The results of another survey question indicate that most likely voters are not in the mood to raise corporate taxes to ease the state’s budget problems: 50 percent oppose raising the state taxes paid by corporations while 42 percent are in favor. Almost half (48%) of likely voters would vote yes on Proposition 25, while 35 percent would vote no and 17 percent are undecided. The ballot measure would lower the two-thirds vote necessary to pass a budget in the legislature to a simple majority. But it would retain the two-thirds vote requirement to raise taxes. The measure would also require that legislators forfeit their pay and expense reimbursements when the budget is late. Democrats (52%) and independents (53%) are much more likely than Republicans (42%) to favor Proposition 25. Half of likely voters say the vote on Proposition 25 is very important, with supporters and opponents equally likely to hold this view. MORE KEY FINDINGS  State elected leaders get poor ratings, budget troubles seen as big problem—pages 17, 20 Governor Schwarzenegger’s 28 percent approval rating is up somewhat from his record-low 23 percent. The legislature’s 16 percent approval is near its record low of 14 percent. Just 31 percent of residents and 30 percent of likely voters approve of the jobs their own legislative representatives are doing. And 80 percent of Californians view the state budget situation as a big problem.  Majority favor path to citizenship for illegal immigrant workers—page 22 Most Californians (66%) say illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the U.S. for at least two years should be given a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status, while 30 percent say these immigrants should be deported to their native countries. Over half of Californians (54%) say immigrants are a benefit to the state and 39 percent say immigrants are a burden.  Record-high 52 percent support gay marriage—page 23 Half of Californians (52%) and likely voters (53%) favor allowing same-sex couples to marry, the highest percentage since PPIC began tracking the issue in 2000. But they are divided (46% agree, 48% disagree) over a federal judge’s ruling that Proposition 8—which banned gay marriage—is unconstitutional. September 2010 Californians and Their Government 5 NOVEMBER 2010 ELECTION KEY FINDINGS  The governor’s race remains tight: 37 percent of likely voters would vote for Jerry Brown, 38 percent would vote for Meg Whitman, and 18 percent are undecided. Only 45 percent are satisfied with their choices of candidates for governor. (page 7)  In the U.S. senate race, Barbara Boxer holds a 7-point lead over Carly Fiorina. The percentage of undecided likely voters is down 5 points from July. Over six in 10 are satisfied with their choices of candidates in this election. (page 8)  Likely voters are split over their preference for candidates with experience either in elected office or running a business. Candidates who fund their campaigns with money from supporters rather than with their own money are viewed more positively. (page 9)  Fifty-two percent of likely voters say they will vote in favor of Proposition 19, which would legalize marijuana in the state. Half view the outcome of the proposition as very important. (page 10)  On Proposition 23, which would suspend California’s air pollution control law (AB 32), 43 percent of likely voters would vote yes, 42 percent would vote no, and 16 percent are undecided. (page 11)  Likely voters are divided on Proposition 24, which would repeal a law that grants businesses a lower tax liability. Three in 10 are undecided. (page 12)  Nearly half of likely voters are in favor of Proposition 25, which would change the legislative vote requirement to pass a budget from two-thirds to a simple majority. Half consider the outcome of Proposition 25 very important. (page 13) September 2010 Californians and Their Government Percent likely voters Percent likely voters Percent likely voters Governor's Race 70 60 50 40 37 34 30 23 20 10 6 0 July Jerry Brown Meg Whitman Other candidates Don't know 37 38 18 7 September U.S. Senate Race 70 60 50 40 39 34 30 20 22 10 5 0 July Barbara Boxer Carly Fiorina Other candidates Don't know 42 35 17 6 September Percent Supporting State Ballot Initiatives 70 60 52 50 43 48 40 35 30 20 10 0 Prop 19 Prop 23 Prop 24 Marijuana AB 32 Business Legalization Suspension Tax Liability Prop 25 Majority Budget Vote 6 PPIC Statewide Survey GOVERNOR’S RACE With just over a month until the November general election, the governor’s race remains close (38% Whitman, 37% Brown, 18% undecided; July: 34% Whitman, 37% Brown, 23% undecided). Although support follows party lines, Whitman is favored more by Republicans (71%)—up slightly since July (67%)—than Brown is by Democrats (63% today, 64% July). Independents now prefer Whitman over Brown by 8 points; in July they were split (28% Whitman, 30% Brown). Seven in 10 liberals and a plurality of moderates favor Brown; two-thirds of conservatives favor Whitman. Brown is favored in the San Francisco Bay Area while Whitman is favored in the Other Southern California region and the Central Valley; Los Angeles voters are divided (35% Brown, 32% Whitman). Latinos are 7 points more likely to favor Brown; in July they were 24 points more likely. Whites are somewhat more likely to prefer Whitman (43%) over Brown (38%). Men are now split; in July they preferred Whitman by 7 points. Women today are also divided, but favored Brown by 12 points in July. “If the November 2nd election for governor were being held today, would you vote for…?” Likely voters only Jerry Brown Meg Whitman Other candidates* Don’t know All Likely Voters 37% 38% 7% 18% Democrats 63 13 5 19 Party Republicans 10 71 5 14 Independents 30 38 13 19 Central Valley 32 47 3 18 San Francisco Bay Area 50 29 8 13 Region Los Angeles 35 32 12 21 Other Southern California 33 45 5 17 Gender Race/ethnicity Men Women Latinos Whites 39 39 8 14 35 37 6 22 32 25 17 26 38 43 3 16 * For full list of candidates, see question 7 on page 28 About eight in 10 likely voters say they are following news about the governor’s election very (30%) or fairly (51%) closely. Republicans (36%) are more likely than Democrats (27%) to say very closely. Among those following the news very closely, Whitman receives more support than Brown. In September 2006, before the last governor’s race, 17 percent said that they followed election news very closely. Half report they are not satisfied with their choices of candidates for governor. Half of Democrats and Republicans say they are satisfied, while 56 percent of independents are not satisfied. “In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for governor on November 2nd?” Likely voters only All Likely Voters Dem Party Rep Ind Satisfied 45% 48% 48% 39% Not satisfied 49 46 47 56 Don’t know 6 6 5 5 Latinos 48% 48 4 September 2010 Californians and Their Government 7 PPIC Statewide Survey U.S. SENATE RACE Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer holds a 7-point lead over Republican Carly Fiorina in the U.S. senate race, with 17 percent of likely voters undecided. In July, the race was closer (39% Boxer, 34% Fiorina, 22% undecided). Today, Democrats (72%) support Boxer at much the same level as they did in July (68%); Republican support for Fiorina is also consistent (72% today, 72% July). Independents are currently divided in their support for Fiorina (34%) and Boxer (32%); in July, independents were somewhat more likely to prefer Boxer (35%) over Fiorina (29%). Boxer receives overwhelming support from liberals (74%) while 66 percent of conservatives favor Fiorina. A plurality of moderates say they will vote for Boxer (46%) rather than Fiorina (25%). Six in 10 likely voters in the San Francisco Bay Area and a plurality in Los Angeles (44%) say they will vote for Boxer, while half in the Other Southern California region and a plurality in the Central Valley (39%) support Fiorina. Latinos and women are much more likely to support Boxer, while men and whites are divided. Boxer holds a plurality of support among younger and middle-aged voters; older voters are split. “If the November 2nd election for U.S. senate were being held today, would you vote for…?” Likely voters only Barbara Boxer Carly Fiorina Other candidates* Don’t know All Likely Voters 42% 35% 6% 17% Democrats 72 8 6 14 Party Republicans 8 72 3 17 Independents 32 34 14 20 Central Valley 28 39 6 27 San Francisco Bay Area 58 24 4 14 Region Los Angeles 44 28 8 20 Other Southern California 35 48 7 10 Gender Race/ethnicity Men Women Latinos Whites 39 40 10 11 45 31 5 19 49 19 11 21 38 41 5 16 * For full list of candidates, see question 10 on page 28. Sixty-four percent of likely voters are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the election for U.S. senate. In this race, majorities across parties are satisfied with their choices, but Democrats are the most likely to say this. Among those who say they are satisfied, half say they will vote for Boxer, while four in 10 favor Fiorina. At least six in 10 across demographic groups express satisfaction with their choices. “In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for U.S. Senator on November 2nd?” Likely voters only All Likely Voters Dem Party Rep Ind Satisfied 64% 71% 62% 54% Not satisfied 29 24 29 38 Don’t know 7 5 9 8 Latinos 67% 25 8 September 2010 Californians and Their Government 8 PPIC Statewide Survey CANDIDATE QUALITIES In the races for governor and U.S. senate, voters are offered a choice between seasoned politicians and former chief executive officers of large corporations. Is experience in elected office or experience running a business more important? On this question likely voters are evenly divided. Democrats (63%) and a plurality of independents (46%) view experience in elected office as more important, while Republicans (68%) say experience running a business is more important. Two-thirds of liberals and half of moderates believe that having been in elected office is more important; two-thirds of conservatives view running a business as more important. Half of Latinos think experience in elected office is more important, while whites are divided (45% business, 41% elected office). A plurality of women prefer a candidate with experience in office, whereas a plurality of men prefer a candidate with experience running a business. Among those who favor experience in office, 62 percent support Jerry Brown for governor and 66 percent prefer Barbara Boxer for senate; among those who prefer a candidate with business experience, 66 percent support Meg Whitman for governor and 63 percent support Carly Fiorina for senate. “People have different ideas about the qualifications they want when they vote for candidates for statewide office, such as governor or U.S. senator. Which of these is most important to you…?” Likely voters only Experience in elected office Experience running a business Neither (volunteered) All Likely Voters 44% 43 5 Dem 63% 26 5 Party Rep 19% 68 3 Ideology Ind Liberal Moderate Conservative 46% 66% 51% 22% 39 19 38 66 67 4 3 Both (volunteered) 6 667 6 5 7 Don’t know 2 –42 2 2 2 Meg Whitman has broken spending records to finance her own gubernatorial campaign while Jerry Brown is heavily relying on outside supporters for his funding. How do voters view different approaches to campaign spending? A majority have a more positive view of candidates who use mostly money from their supporters rather than their own money to pay for political campaigning. Majorities of Democrats and independents view using money from supporters more favorably, as do a plurality of Republicans. Nearly half of voters who view candidates more positively if they use their own money favor Whitman and nearly half of those who think using supporters’ money is better prefer Brown. In the senate race, 40 percent of those who think candidates should use their own money favor Carly Fiorina, and 51 percent of those favoring the use of supporters’ money would vote for Barbara Boxer. “People have different ideas on how candidates for statewide office should pay for their political campaigns. Which of these do you view most positively? A candidate using mostly his or her own money to pay for political campaigning, or a candidate using mostly money collected from his or her supporters to pay for political campaigning?” Likely voters only All Likely Voters Dem Party Rep Ind Liberal Ideology Moderate Conservative His or her own money Money collected from supporters Don’t know 32% 30% 36% 35% 27% 32% 37% 56 63 44 56 66 59 45 12 7 20 9 7 9 18 September 2010 Californians and Their Government 9 PPIC Statewide Survey PROPOSITION 19—MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION When read the ballot title and label for Proposition 19—an initiative on the November ballot that would legalize marijuana in California and allow it to be regulated and taxed—52 percent of likely voters are in favor. Forty-one percent are opposed and 7 percent are undecided. The propensity to vote in favor of the initiative follows party lines: Strong majorities of Democrats and independents favor it, while a strong majority of Republicans oppose it. At least half in the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, and the Other Southern California region support legalization, while a majority in the Central Valley do not. Latinos (63%) are much more likely than whites (50%) to say they would vote yes on the initiative. Young adults (70%) overwhelmingly support the proposition; those 35 and older are divided. “Proposition 19 is called the ‘Legalizes Marijuana Under California but Not Federal Law. Permits Local Governments to Regulate and Tax Commercial Production, Distribution, and Sale of Marijuana. Initiative Statute.’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 19?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All Likely Voters 52% 41% 7% Party Democrats Republicans 63 29 32 62 8 6 Independents 65 31 4 Gender Men Women 55 39 49 43 6 8 Race/ethnicity Latinos Whites 63 33 50 43 4 7 18–34 Age 35–54 55 and older 70 22 49 44 47 46 8 7 7 * For complete text of proposition question, see page 29. Half of likely voters think the outcome of Proposition 19 is very important and three in 10 see it as somewhat important. Republicans are the most likely to say the outcome is very important while independents are the least likely. Those opposed to the initiative feel more strongly about the outcome: 65 percent of no voters say the outcome is very important, compared to 42 percent of yes voters. “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 19?” All Likely Party Vote on Proposition 19 Voters Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 49% 48% 55% 43% 42% 65% Somewhat important 31 32 28 36 37 22 Not too important 13 15 11 11 16 7 Not at all important 5 4 3 8 4 5 Don’t know 213211 Asked a generic question about support for marijuana legalization, 51 percent of likely voters are in favor while 45 percent oppose. Support among parties tracks support for the proposition, with strong majorities of Democrats and independents in favor of legalization, and a strong majority of Republicans opposed. September 2010 Californians and Their Government 10 PPIC Statewide Survey PROPOSITION 23—AB 32 SUSPENSION Likely voters are divided over Proposition 23, which would suspend California’s air pollution control law (AB 32) until unemployment falls to at least 5.5 percent for a full year. When read the full title and label, 43 percent of voters favor the initiative, 42 percent oppose it, and 15 percent are undecided. The divide is reflected across parties, regions, and demographic groups. Nearly half of Democrats say they would vote no on the suspension of AB 32, a plurality of Republicans say they would vote yes, and independents are divided. A majority of Latinos favor the initiative, while a plurality of whites oppose it. Half of voters in the Other Southern California region support the initiative, while a plurality in the Central Valley oppose it; San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles voters are more divided. The percentage saying they would vote yes decreases with age. “Proposition 23 is called the ‘Suspends Implementation of Air Pollution Control Law (AB 32) Requiring Major Sources of Emissions to Report and Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions That Cause Global Warming, Until Unemployment Drops to 5.5 Percent or Less for Full Year. Initiative Statute.’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 23?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All Likely Voters 43% 42% 15% Party Democrats Republicans 40 48 12 45 35 20 Independents 42 43 15 Gender Men Women 46 44 10 39 40 21 Race/Ethnicity Latinos Whites 54 36 10 38 45 17 * For complete text of proposition question, see page 29. Proponents of Proposition 23 contend that AB 32 will cost the state large numbers of jobs in a time of economic insecurity, while opponents think AB 32 is spurring growth in green jobs. In general, what effect do voters think state action to reduce global warming would have on jobs? A plurality say it would result in more jobs, 24 percent think there would be no effect, and 26 percent think there would be fewer jobs. Of Proposition 23 yes-voters, 31 percent say fewer jobs would result from state action on global warming, 38 percent think there will be more jobs, and 24 percent say jobs would not be affected. Half of no-voters say state action would result in more jobs. “Next, do you think that California doing things to reduce global warming in the future would cause there to be more jobs for people around the state, would cause there to be fewer jobs, or wouldn’t affect the number of jobs for people around the state?” All Likely Party Vote on Proposition 23 Voters Dem Rep Ind Yes No More jobs 41% 60% 18% 42% 38% 49% Fewer jobs 26 11 45 25 31 22 Wouldn’t affect number of jobs 24 20 29 25 24 24 Don’t know 998875 Eight in 10 say the outcome of Proposition 23 is either very (45%) or somewhat (36%) important. Half of Democrats say it is very important, as do four in 10 Republicans and independents. Fifty-three percent of yes-voters and 45 percent of no-voters say the outcome is very important. September 2010 Californians and Their Government 11 PPIC Statewide Survey PROPOSITION 24—BUSINESS TAX LIABILITY Of the four ballot propositions included in this survey, likely voters are the most undecided about Proposition 24, which would repeal recent legislation allowing businesses to lower their tax liability. After being read the ballot title and label, 35 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 35 percent would vote no, and 30 percent are undecided. Proposition 24 currently has neither majority support nor opposition in any political, regional, or demographic group, except among likely voters age 18 to 34 (57% yes). Democrats, at just 40 percent, are much more likely than Republicans (30%) to support it. “Proposition 24 is called the ‘Repeals Recent Legislation That Would Allow Businesses to Lower Their Tax Liability. Initiative Statute.’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 24?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All Likely Voters 35% 35% 30% Party Democrats Republicans Independents 40 30 30 30 37 33 36 40 24 Gender Men Women 39 36 25 31 35 34 Race/Ethnicity Latinos Whites 47 32 21 31 35 34 Under $40,000 38 29 33 Household income $40,000 to under $80,000 34 38 28 $80,000 or more 35 37 28 * For complete text of proposition question, see page 30. Compared to the other three propositions in this survey, likely voters place the least importance on the outcome of Proposition 24. Three in 10 consider the outcome very important and four in 10 say it is somewhat important. Thirty-two percent of yes-voters and 36 percent of no-voters say the outcome is very important. Yes-voters are much more likely than no-voters to consider the outcome somewhat important. “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 24?” All Likely Party Vote on Proposition 24 Voters Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 29% 27% 30% 31% 32% 36% Somewhat important 41 43 38 44 53 43 Not too important 12 12 11 13 13 14 Not at all important 3 4 3 4 2 6 Don’t know 15 14 18 8 -- 1 According to the Legislative Analyst, this measure would repeal legislation set to take effect in 2011, thereby raising state revenues through higher taxes paid by corporations. But most likely voters are not in the mood to raise corporate taxes to aid the state’s budget: Another survey question shows that 50 percent oppose raising state taxes paid by corporations, while 42 percent favor it. An overwhelming 73 percent of Republicans are opposed, while 58 percent of Democrats are in favor. In the past, and as recently as May, support among likely voters has been higher than opposition for raising corporate taxes. September 2010 Californians and Their Government 12 PPIC Statewide Survey PROPOSITION 25—MAJORITY BUDGET VOTE California is currently one of three states that requires a supermajority vote by the legislature to pass a state budget and state taxes. Proposition 25 would lower the requirement to pass a state budget to a simple majority vote, while retaining a two-thirds vote for taxes. It would also require legislators to forfeit their pay and expenses when a budget is late. When read the ballot title and label, just under half of likely voters say they would vote yes on this proposition, 35 percent would vote no, and 17 percent are undecided. Democrats (52%) and independents (53%) are much more likely than Republicans (42%) to say they would vote yes. A majority of San Francisco Bay Area voters (54% yes, 27% no) and pluralities of voters in Los Angeles (48% yes, 35% no) and the Central Valley (42% yes, 36% no) would vote yes, while Other Southern California voters are divided (43% yes, 40% no). “Proposition 25 is called the ‘Changes Legislative Vote Requirement to Pass Budget and Budget-related Legislation from Two-Thirds to a Simple Majority. Retains Two-Thirds Vote Requirement for Taxes. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 25?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All Likely Voters 48% 35% 17% Party Democrats Republicans Independents 52 27 21 42 43 15 53 34 13 Gender Men Women 48 38 14 48 31 21 Race/Ethnicity Latinos Whites 47 39 14 49 33 18 * For complete text of proposition question, see page 30. Half of likely voters say the outcome of the vote on Proposition 25 is very important and another third say it is somewhat important. Proposition supporters and opponents are equally likely to say the outcome is very important. Republicans are more likely than Democrats and independents to hold this view. Should the legislature also shift from a supermajority to a simple majority vote for passing both a state budget and state taxes? California’s likely voters are not convinced, with 44 percent calling this a good idea and 46 percent saying it’s a bad idea. This issue deeply divides the electorate, with most Democrats saying lowering the vote requirement for both budget and taxes is a good idea and most Republicans calling it a bad one. Independents are divided on the issue. Sixty-seven percent of the likely voters supporting Proposition 25 think it’s a good idea to lower the vote requirement to pass both a budget and state taxes, while three in four no voters say it’s a bad idea. “Do you think it is a good idea or bad idea to lower the vote requirement to pass a state budget and state taxes from a two-thirds vote to a simple majority or 50 percent plus one vote?” All Likely Party Vote on Proposition 25 Voters Dem Rep Ind Yes No Good idea 44% 60% 25% 49% 67% 20% Bad idea 46 28 65 45 27 76 Don’t know 10 12 10 6 6 4 September 2010 Californians and Their Government 13 STATE AND NATIONAL ISSUES KEY FINDINGS  Californians cite jobs and the economy (62%) as the state’s most important issue. Seven in 10 think California is headed in the wrong direction, six in 10 say bad financial times are ahead, and about half say the state is in a serious recession. (pages 15, 16)  Nearly two-thirds disapprove of the governor’s job performance. The state legislature and respondents’ own state representatives receive record high disapproval ratings. (page 17)  About half of Californians approve of President Obama’s job performance—a record low—and Senators Boxer and Feinstein receive record-high disapproval ratings. Only a quarter approve of Congress, and 43 percent approve of their own congressional representative. (pages 18, 19)  Most Californians continue to view the state budget situation as a big problem. Four in 10 prefer spending cuts alone to deal with the state budget gap, while an equal share prefer a mix of cuts and tax increases. (page 20)  Residents disagree about the effects of Obama’s economic policies. Yet a strong majority think the president and Congress are not doing enough to help create jobs and six in 10 say the U.S. faces bad economic times ahead. (page 21)  Democrats and Republicans hold starkly different perceptions of immigrants in the state. (page 22)  A record high 52 percent favor allowing same-sex marriage. But Californians are divided about a federal court ruling that Proposition 8 is unconstitutional. (page 23) September 2010 Californians and Their Government Percent all adults Percent all adults Percent all adults Approval Ratings of State Elected Officals 80 Governor Legislature 60 46 50 38 40 30 28 34 34 20 21 21 16 0 Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep 06 07 08 09 10 Approval Ratings of Senators 80 Boxer Feinstein 60 53 50 51 49 48 54 51 53 44 40 48 46 45 44 41 20 0 Oct Oct Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Economic Outlook For the United States 100 Percent saying "bad times" 80 76 60 70 71 53 40 46 58 58 20 0 Oct Jun Mar Aug Jan Dec Sep 06 07 08 08 09 09 10 14 PPIC Statewide Survey OVERALL MOOD With a sluggish economy and double-digit unemployment, six in 10 Californians (62%) name jobs and the economy as the most important issue facing the state today. Far fewer mention the state budget, despite the current record-long budget stalemate. Concern about jobs and the economy nearly matches the record high reached in February 2009 (63%) and has topped the list of concerns since January 2008; it has not dropped below 50 percent since January 2009. Jobs and the economy continues to top the list of concerns—above 55 percent—across parties, regions, and demographic groups. Republicans are somewhat more likely than Democrats to mention immigration as the most important issue facing the state (9% to 2%), while Democrats (66%) are much more likely than Republicans (55%) to mention jobs and the economy. Among racial/ethnic groups, Latinos (70%) are much more likely than whites (57%) to say the economy is the most important issue, while whites (14%) are much more likely than Latinos (4%) to name the state’s budget situation. Mention of the state budget situation increases with higher income. “Thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today?” Top four issues mentioned All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind Jobs, economy 62% 66% 55% 56% State budget, deficit, taxes 11 13 16 11 Education, schools Immigration, illegal immigration 7767 5296 Likely Voters 62% 13 8 5 Seven in 10 Californians continue to think that the state is generally headed in the wrong direction, although this negative perception has dropped 10 points since July. At least two in three since June 2008 have said the state is headed in the wrong direction. The perception that the state is heading in the wrong direction is widely held across political parties, regions, and demographic groups. Although pessimism is high, some differences among groups emerge. Republicans (87%) are far more likely than independents (69%) or Democrats (68%) to say the state is headed in the wrong direction. Across regions, eight in 10 Central Valley residents (80%) agree, compared to fewer in Los Angeles (69%), the Other Southern California region (67%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (63%). Whites (74%) are much more likely than Latinos (62%) to say wrong direction; younger, less educated, and less affluent Californians are less likely than others to hold this negative view. Those who disapprove of the governor (78%) or legislature (79%) are far more likely than those who approve to say the state is going in the wrong direction. “Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Right direction 20% 20% 7% 21% 13% Wrong direction 69 68 87 69 77 Don’t know 11 12 6 10 10 September 2010 Californians and Their Government 15 PPIC Statewide Survey ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Californians’ pessimism about the state’s direction is echoed in their economic outlook. Six in 10 continue to say that the state will have bad times financially during the next year; at least 59 percent have held this view since September 2007. Although more than half across parties are pessimistic, Republicans (72%) and independents (64%) are much more likely than Democrats (54%) to hold a negative view. The belief that bad economic times lie ahead is less widely held among younger, less educated, and lower-income Californians; Latinos (47%) are far less likely than whites (68%) to think this. Good times Bad times Don’t know “Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?” All Adults 29% Under $40,000 37% Household income $40,000 to under $80,000 26% $80,000 or more 24% 59 53 61 64 12 10 13 12 Likely Voters 24% 62 14 Nearly all Californians say the state is in a recession, with 52 percent calling it a serious recession. Only 8 percent of Californians say that the state is not in a recession. Perceptions today are similar to May’s; more than half of Californians have said that the state is in a serious recession since January 2009. Democrats (50%) and independents (51%) are far less likely than Republicans (67%) to say the state is in a serious recession and half or more across regions hold this view. Whites (57%) are far more likely than Latinos (41%) to hold this view. The belief that the state is in a serious recession is far lower among those aged 18 to 34 (36%), than those aged 35 to 54 (58%) and adults 55 and older (62%). Those with a high school diploma or less (48%), and those with annual household incomes of less than $40,000 (47%) are less likely than others to say the state is in a serious recession. “Would you say that California is in an economic recession, or not? Do you think it is in a serious, a moderate, or a mild recession?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind Yes, serious recession 52% 50% 67% 51% Yes, moderate recession 29 33 24 25 Yes, mild recession 8 5 3 14 No, not in recession 8849 Don’t know 3421 Likely Voters 59% 27 5 7 2 With a negative outlook about economic conditions and most believing the state is in a recession, how concerned are Californians about the possibility of job loss? More than four in 10 Californians say they are very concerned (28%) or somewhat concerned (16%) that they or someone in their family could lose a job in the next year. Nearly half say that they are not concerned and 8 percent volunteer that their household has already experienced job loss. Concern has decreased 6 points since March and 14 points from its record high in January 2009 (58%). Today, about four in 10 Republicans (38%), Democrats (40%), and independents (43%) express concern. Across regions, Los Angeles residents (52%) express the highest concern, while San Francisco Bay Area residents express the lowest (36%). Latinos (58%) are far more likely than whites (34%) to express concern about job loss. Adults in households earning less than $40,000 are twice as likely as those earning $80,000 and over to be very concerned. September 2010 Californians and Their Government 16 PPIC Statewide Survey STATE ELECTED OFFICIALS’ APPROVAL RATINGS With a poor economy and a budget impasse that has now reached a record for tardiness, Californians continue to give poor marks to their elected officials’ job performance. Governor Schwarzenegger receives a 28 percent approval rating among all adults and likely voters, with more than six in 10 disapproving of his job performance. The governor has improved somewhat from his record low approval rating of 23 percent in May, but his disapproval rating still hovers near the record high of 65 percent reached in May. The governor’s approval rating has been below 50 percent since March 2008. Approval of the governor is low across parties (33% Republicans, 30% independents, and 25% Democrats) and regions (highest in San Francisco Bay Area, 33%; lowest in the Central Valley, 23%). Approval is higher among whites (33%) than Latinos (21%). The state legislature fares even worse than the governor, with approval near the record low of 14 percent reached in March; disapproval reaches a new record high of 75 percent. Approval has not topped 30 percent since January 2008 and disapproval has not dropped below 50 percent since December 2007. Among likely voters, an overwhelming 85 percent disapprove of the legislature. Strong majorities across parties and regions disapprove of the legislature, and whites (81%) are far more likely than Latinos (63%) to disapprove. Disapproval of the legislature increases with age, education, and income, and over eight in 10 Californians who say the state can expect bad economic times disapprove of the legislature’s job performance. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that…” All Adults Dem Party Rep …Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California? Approve Disapprove Don't know 28% 25% 33% 64 70 61 856 …the California Legislature is handling its job? Approve Disapprove Don't know 16 14 8 75 79 87 975 Ind 30% 63 7 16 77 7 Likely Voters 28% 66 6 11 85 4 Californians’ approval of their individual state legislators’ job performance remains low at 31 percent, with 56 percent disapproving. Likely voters are even more likely to disapprove of their individual assembly or state senate representative. Among all adults, approval is near the low of 27 percent in March, and disapproval has reached a new high. Today, Democrats (53%) are much less likely than independents (63%) and Republicans (69%) to disapprove. Majorities across regions disapprove of their state legislators. Whites (59%) are more likely than Latinos (50%) to disapprove, men (57%) and women (56%) hold similar views, and disapproval increases with rising age. Approve Disapprove Don't know “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that the state legislators representing your assembly and senate districts are doing at this time?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 31% 38% 21% 26% 56 53 69 63 13 9 10 11 Likely Voters 30% 63 7 September 2010 Californians and Their Government 17 PPIC Statewide Survey FEDERAL ELECTED OFFICIALS’ APPROVAL RATINGS Amid a sluggish economy and with midterm elections quickly approaching, approval of President Obama’s job performance has reached another record low—52 percent—and his disapproval reaches a record high—43 percent. Approval of the president’s performance among adults is down 4 points from July and is 11 points lower than September 2009. Californians are more approving than Americans nationwide, according to a recent CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll (42% approve, 54% disapprove). For the first time since the president took office, California likely voters are equally divided in their ratings of him (48% approve, 48% disapprove). Three in four Democrats (75%) approve, while an overwhelming majority of Republicans (85%) disapprove. Half of independents approve of Obama’s job performance. Approval is down 7 points among Democrats since last September, 9 points among independents, and 18 points among Republicans. Approval is highest in the San Francisco Bay Area (61%) and lowest in the Central Valley (45%). Latinos (62%) are more likely than whites (44%) to approve. Just one in four approve and two in three disapprove of Congress. Both approval and disapproval are near records first reached in October 2008 (23% approve, 71% disapprove), prior to the last general election. Californians’ approval of Congress is just higher than approval held by Americans nationwide, according to a CBS News/New York Times poll (21% approve, 70% disapprove). Across parties in California, Democrats (29%) and independents (24%) are much more likely than Republicans (10%) to approve of Congress. Regionally, approval of Congress ranges from a low of 21 percent in the Central Valley to a high of 29 percent in the Other Southern California region. Latinos (36%) are far more likely than whites (20%) to approve; approval is higher among younger, less educated, and less affluent adults. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that…” All Adults Dem Party Rep … Barack Obama is handling his job as president of the United States? Approve Disapprove Don't know 52% 75% 11% 43 20 85 554 … the U.S. Congress is handling its job? Approve Disapprove Don't know 26 29 10 66 63 87 883 Ind 50% 46 4 24 72 4 Likely Voters 48% 48 4 21 74 5 When it comes to their own congressional representatives, Californians are slightly more likely to approve (43%) than disapprove (39%), but approval and disapproval are each at record levels. Just under half of likely voters approve, 5 points lower than in September 2008. Approval among all adults has decreased 13 points since last September (56%). Today, Democrats (52%) are far more likely than Republicans (34%) to approve, while independents are divided (42% approve, 41% disapprove). Approval of individual representatives is highest in the San Francisco Bay Area (48%) and lowest in the Central Valley (35%). Approve Disapprove Don't know “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the U.S. House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind 43% 52% 34% 42% 47% 39 34 53 41 42 18 14 13 17 11 September 2010 Californians and Their Government 18 PPIC Statewide Survey FEDERAL ELECTED OFFICIALS’ APPROVAL RATINGS (CONTINUED) Facing a competitive challenge for her fourth term as U.S. senator, Barbara Boxer has a 41 percent job approval rating, matching her record low from March 2008. Her approval has dropped 9 points since May (50%) and 12 points since last September (53%). Disapproval (45%) has reached a record high. Across parties today, Senator Boxer’s approval has dropped since May among Democrats (67% today, down 10 points), Republicans (7% today, down 6 points), and independents (41% today, down 12 points). Among likely voters, 43 percent approve of Senator Boxer. Prior to her last re-election bid in 2004, likely voters were 11 points more likely to express approval (54% October 2004). Senator Boxer receives her highest job approval rating in the San Francisco Bay Area (50%) and her lowest in the Central Valley (30%). Latinos (45%) are 9 points more approving than whites (36%), while whites (53%) are 18 points more disapproving than Latinos (45%). Although men (39%) and women (43%) hold similar levels of approval, men (49%) are more likely than women (41%) to disapprove. Disapproval increases with older age. Among Californians who approve of President Obama or Congress, two in three also approve of Senator Boxer; among those who approve of Senator Dianne Feinstein three in four also approve of Senator Boxer. Approve Disapprove Don't know “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barbara Boxer is handling her job as U.S. senator?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 41% 67% 7% 41% 45 24 88 46 14 9 5 13 Likely Voters 43% 52 5 Approval of Senator Feinstein has tied her low of 44 percent first reached in March 2008, and disapproval has set a new record high of 39 percent. Approval has decreased 6 points since May and 10 points since last September. Today, Democrats (67%) are far more likely than independents (42%) or Republicans (18%) to approve of her job performance. Her approval among partisans has dipped since May among Democrats (down 5 points), Republicans (down 5 points) and independents (down 7 points). Across regions, residents in the San Francisco Bay Area (53%) are the most approving followed by those in Los Angeles (50%), the Other Southern California region (38%) and the Central Valley (37%). Once again, Latinos (50%) are more approving than whites (41%), and whites (46%) are far more disapproving than Latinos (27%). Women are somewhat more likely to approve (44%) than disapprove (37%), while men are divided (43% approve, 41% disapprove). About two in three of those who approve of President Obama or Congress also approve of Senator Feinstein. Among those who approve of Senator Boxer, eight in 10 also approve of Senator Feinstein. Approve Disapprove Don't know “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Dianne Feinstein is handling her job as U.S. senator?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 44% 67% 18% 42% 39 20 74 44 17 13 8 14 Likely Voters 49% 44 7 September 2010 Californians and Their Government 19 PPIC Statewide Survey STATE BUDGET Facing a record-long stalemate over the 2010–2011 budget and a projected $19 billion deficit, the vast majority of Californians (80%) say the state budget situation is a big problem. Another 17 percent say it is somewhat of a problem and just 2 percent say it is not a problem. Since January 2008, more than six in 10 Californians have said the state’s budget situation is a big problem. Today, more than three in four across parties and regions consider it a big problem. Strong majorities across demographic groups agree, although Latinos are far less likely than whites (64% to 87%) to hold this view. Those who are aged 18 to 34, have a high school education or less, or make less than $40,000 a year are less likely than older, more educated, and higher-income Californians to say the budget situation is a big problem. “…Do you think the state budget situation in California—that is, the balance between government spending and revenues—is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Big problem 80% 85% 92% 82% 90% Somewhat of a problem 17 13 8 17 9 Not a problem 21–11 Don’t know 11– – – Californians are divided about the best way to deal with the state’s budget deficit. Four in 10 say the gap should be closed mostly through spending cuts and four in 10 say a mix of spending cuts and tax increases is needed. Very few (7%) believe mostly tax increases should be used or that it’s okay for the state to borrow money and run a deficit (7%). Since last December, Californians have expressed divided views about using spending cuts or a mix of spending cuts and tax increases. A strong majority of Republicans favor using mostly spending cuts to deal with the gap, while about half of Democrats and pluralities of independents prefer a mix of cuts and taxes. Across regions, San Francisco Bay Area residents are the most likely to say both cuts and taxes are needed, while Other Southern California residents are the most likely to say mostly spending cuts should be made. Central Valley residents are more divided, while Los Angeles residents slightly prefer spending cuts alone. Whites, men, and woman are divided, with about four in 10 in each group preferring cuts and about the same proportion preferring a mix. Four in 10 Latinos prefer cuts, but fewer (33%) prefer a mix, and 15 percent say it’s okay for the state to borrow money and run a deficit. “How would you prefer to deal with the state's budget gap—mostly through spending cuts, mostly through tax increases, through a mix of spending cuts and tax increases, or do you think that it is okay for the state to borrow money and run a budget deficit?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Mostly spending cuts 40% 26% 66% 35% 43% Mix of spending cuts and tax increases 40 51 26 43 42 Mostly tax increases 7 11 1 7 7 Okay to borrow money and run a deficit 7 4 1 10 3 Other 2 132 2 Don’t know 4 733 3 September 2010 Californians and Their Government 20 PPIC Statewide Survey FEDERAL ECONOMIC POLICY Most Californians (58%) say the United States will have bad economic times in the next year; just one in three predict good times. A recent CBS News/New York Times survey found adults nationwide expressing nearly identical views about the country’s direction (33% right direction, 60% wrong track). Findings in California were identical last December, whereas in August 2008, heading into the presidential election, residents were much more pessimistic (70% bad times, 23% good times). Among likely voters today, 63 percent expect bad financial times, 4 points lower than last December (67%). Across parties, Republicans (79%) are far more likely than independents (61%) and Democrats (53%) to think the country faces bad times. Whites are far more pessimistic than Latinos (67% to 46% bad times). Pessimism increases with rising age and income; it is lower among those with a high school education or less than it is among those with at least some college. Californians disagree about the effect that Barack Obama’s economic policies have had on the U.S. economy. About three in 10 say the policies have made conditions better; about the same proportion say his policies have made conditions worse and nearly four in 10 say they have had no effect so far or volunteer that it is too soon to tell. Since we first asked this question last December, fewer say there has been no effect and more say the policies have made things worse (December 2009: 31% better, 21% worse, 46% no effect yet; today: 32% better, 28% worse, 38% no effect yet). Half of Democrats (49%) believe Obama’s policies have helped, while a strong majority of Republicans (67%) believe they’ve hurt. A plurality of independents say there has been no effect so far or that it is too soon to tell. Better Worse No effect so far/ too soon to tell Don’t know “Next, since taking office, have Barack Obama’s economic policies made economic conditions better, worse, or not had an effect so far?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind 32% 49% 7% 28% 28 9 67 26 38 40 25 45 2211 Likely Voters 32% 33 33 2 Jobs and the economy are the main focal point of most candidates’ election campaigns. Nearly two in three Californians, and solid majorities across parties, think that Congress and the Obama administration are not doing enough to create jobs. Attitudes about job creation are similar to March when 61 percent said Congress and the Obama administration were not doing enough. Across parties, Democrats (58%) and independents (62%) are far less likely than Republicans (85%) to say not enough is being done. Majorities across regions and demographic groups hold this view, with San Francisco Bay Area residents less negative than residents in other regions, and Latinos (59%) much less negative than whites (70%). “Overall, do you think that Congress and the Obama administration are doing more than enough, just enough, or not enough to help create jobs?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Ind More than enough 7% 7% 5% 4% Just enough 26 32 6 30 Not enough 64 58 85 62 Don’t know 3344 Likely Voters 6% 23 68 3 September 2010 Californians and Their Government 21 PPIC Statewide Survey IMMIGRATION The debate over comprehensive immigration reform has received increased attention in recent months, in part because of the passage of Arizona’s strict immigration law, SB 1070. Although Congress has yet to act on comprehensive reform, how do Californians perceive immigrants in their state? More than half view immigrants as a benefit because of their hard work and job skills. Four in 10 say immigrants are a burden because they use public services. The percentage saying immigrants are a benefit is the same as in March and similar to last September (58%). Likely voters are divided (47% benefit, 44% burden). Across parties, Democrats (62%) and independents (54%) call immigrants a benefit while two in three Republicans say a burden. Los Angeles (61%) and San Francisco Bay Area (59%) residents are much more likely than Other Southern California (49%) and Central Valley (47%) residents to view immigrants as a benefit. Views among Latinos and whites sharply diverge: 83 percent of Latinos think immigrants are a benefit, compared to 39 percent of whites. “…which statement comes closest to your own view—even if neither is exactly right. Immigrants today are a benefit to California because of their hard work and job skills or Immigrants today are a burden to California because they use public services.” All Adults Dem Party Rep Latinos Ind Immigrants are a benefit to California 54% 62% 21% 54% 83% Immigrants are a burden to California 39 32 66 40 14 Don’t know 7 6 13 6 3 A strong majority of California adults (66%) and likely voters (61%) think most illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the United States for at least two years should be given a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status; three in 10 adults and 35 percent of likely voters believe they should be deported back to their native countries. The percentage who say illegal immigrants should have a chance to keep their jobs is at an all-time low in the PPIC Statewide Survey, but is somewhat similar to the last time we asked the question in March (70%). Of Californians who view immigrants as a benefit to the state, 87 percent say they should keep their jobs; 57 percent of those who say immigrants are a burden also say illegal immigrants should be deported. There are sharp partisan differences in preferences for what should happen to illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the U.S. for at least two years: Three in four Democrats and six in 10 independents think they should have a chance to keep their jobs, while half of Republicans think they should be deported. Nearly eight in 10 of those who have immigrated to the United States think there should be a chance to keep jobs, as do 62 percent of those born in the United States. Majorities of Latinos and whites prefer that illegal immigrants be given a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status, but nearly nine in 10 Latinos hold this view compared to far fewer whites (59%). “If you had to choose, what do you think should happen to most illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the United States for at least two years? They should be given a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status or they should be deported back to their native country?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Latinos Ind Chance to keep their jobs 66% 77% 44% 61% 87% Deported back to their native country 30 20 51 35 11 Don’t know 43542 September 2010 Californians and Their Government 22 PPIC Statewide Survey SAME-SEX MARRIAGE Half of Californians (52% favor, 42% oppose) and likely voters (53% favor, 42% oppose) favor allowing same-sex couples to marry—a record high for both groups. The PPIC Statewide Survey has tracked this contentious issue since January 2000, just before voters passed an initiative defining marriage as between a man and a woman. At that time, most opposed allowing gay marriage, but since August 2005, opinion has been more divided. This March, support reached 50 percent for the first time, with 45 percent opposed. Support is divided along party lines; independents are in favor. A strong majority of upper-income adults (64%) favor allowing same-sex marriage, whereas others are divided. Californians who have never married are much more likely than married residents to express support (66% to 47%). Most evangelical Christians (66%) oppose allowing same-sex marriage. “Do you favor or oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to be legally married?” Favor Oppose Don’t Know All adults 52% 42% 6% Democrat 68 28 4 Party Republican 29 64 7 Independent 63 31 6 Gender Men Women 49 45 55 39 6 6 Race/ethnicity Latinos Whites 47 47 57 38 6 5 18–34 63 32 5 Age 35–54 49 45 6 55 and older 45 48 7 Evangelical/born-again Christian Yes No 26 66 61 34 8 5 Likely voters 53 42 5 California voters passed Proposition 8 in November 2008, eliminating the right of same-sex couples to marry. A federal judge recently ruled that Proposition 8 is unconstitutional; initiative proponents are appealing. Californians are divided (46% agree, 48% disagree) about whether they agree with the ruling that Proposition 8 is unconstitutional. A solid majority of Democrats agree with the decision, while the vast majority of Republicans disagree. Among those who favor allowing same-sex marriage, 59 percent agree and 38 percent disagree that Proposition 8 is unconstitutional; among those who oppose allowing same-sex marriage, 34 percent agree and 63 percent disagree that it is unconstitutional. “…Proposition 8, which eliminated the right of same-sex couples to marry, was approved by voters in November 2008. Last month, a United States district court struck down Proposition 8, ruling it unconstitutional. Do you agree or disagree with the court’s ruling that Proposition 8 is unconstitutional?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Voters Ind Agree 46% 59% 25% 45% 42% Disagree 48 38 71 49 53 Don’t know 63465 September 2010 Californians and Their Government 23 REGIONAL MAP September 2010 Californians and Their Government 24 METHODOLOGY The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance from Nicole Willcoxon, project manager for this survey, and survey research associates Dean Bonner and Sonja Petek. The Californians and Their Government series is supported with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. We benefit from discussions with PPIC staff, foundation staff, and other policy experts; however, the methods, questions, and content of this report were solely determined by Mark Baldassare and the survey staff. Findings in this report are based on a survey of 2,004 California adult residents, including 1,804 interviewed on landline telephones and 200 interviewed on cell phones. Interviewing took place on weekday nights and weekend days between September 19 and 26, 2010. Interviews took an average of 18 minutes to complete. Landline interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible for selection and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as six times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Cell phone interviews were included in this survey to account for the growing number of Californians who use them. These interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of cell phone numbers. All cell phone numbers with California area codes were eligible for selection and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as eight times to increase the likelihood of reaching an eligible respondent. Once a cell phone user was reached, it was verified that this person was age 18 or older, a resident of California, and in a safe place to continue the survey (e.g., not driving). Cell phone respondents were offered a small reimbursement to help defray the potential cost of the call. Cell phone interviews were conducted with adults who have cell phone service only and with those who have both cell phone and landline service in the household. Landline and cell phone interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish according to respondents’ preferences. Accent on Languages, Inc. translated the survey into Spanish, with assistance from Renatta DeFever. Abt SRBI Inc. conducted the telephone interviewing. With assistance from Abt SRBI we used recent U.S. Census and state figures to compare the demographic characteristics of the survey sample with characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the census and state figures. Abt SRBI used data from the 2008 National Health Interview Survey and data from the 2005–2007 American Community Survey for California, both to estimate landline and cell phone service in California and to compare it against landline and cell phone service reported in the survey. The survey data in this report were statistically weighted to account for any differences in demographics and telephone service. The sampling error, taking design effects from weighting into consideration, is ±3 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total sample of 2,004 adults. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 3 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger: For the 1,563 registered voters, it is ±3.3 percent; for the 1,104 likely voters, it is ±3.6 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. September 2010 Californians and Their Government 25 PPIC Statewide Survey We present results for four geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, and “Other Southern California” includes Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. Residents from other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes for these less populated areas are not large enough to report separately. We present specific results for Latinos because they account for about a third of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest growing voter groups. Sample sizes for African Americans and Asian Americans are not large enough for separate analysis. We compare the opinions of registered Democrats, Republicans, and independents (those registered as “decline to state”). We also analyze the responses of likely voters—so designated by their responses to survey questions on past voting, current interest in politics, and voting intentions. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey results to those in our earlier surveys and to those in national surveys by CBS News/New York Times and by CNN/Opinion Research Corporation. September 2010 Californians and Their Government 26 QUESTIONNAIRE AND RESULTS CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT September 19–26, 2010 2,004 California Adult Residents: English, Spanish Margin of error, taking the design effect from weighting into consideration, is ±3% at 95% confidence level for total sample 1. First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today? [code, don’t read] 62% jobs, economy 11 state budget, deficit, taxes 7 education, schools 5 immigration, illegal immigration 2 crime, gangs, drugs 11 other 2 don’t know 2. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 20% right direction 69 wrong direction 11 don’t know 3. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 29% good times 59 bad times 12 don’t know 4. Would you say that California is in an economic recession, or not? (if yes: Do you think it is in a serious, a moderate, or a mild recession?) 52% yes, serious recession 29 yes, moderate recession 8 yes, mild recession 8 no 3 don’t know 4a. Are you concerned that you or someone in your family will lose their job in the next year, or not? (if yes: Are you very concerned or somewhat concerned?) 28% yes, very concerned 16 yes, somewhat 47 no 8 have lost job already (volunteered) 1 don’t know 5. Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote in California? 79% yes [ask q5a] 21 no [skip to q6b] 5a.Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or as an independent? 45% Democrat [ask q6] 31 Republican [skip to q6a] 1 another party (specify) [skip to q7] 23 independent [skip to q6b] 6. Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 51% strong 45 not very strong 4 don’t know [skip to q7] September 2010 Californians and Their Government 27 PPIC Statewide Survey 6a. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 58% strong 36 not very strong 6 don’t know [skip to q7] 6b. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party? 24% Republican Party 43 Democratic Party 27 neither (volunteered) 6 don’t know [delayed skip: if q5=no or don’t know, skip to q22] [responses recorded for questions 7 to 21 are for likely voters only] 7. If the November 2nd election for governor were being held today, would you vote for [rotate] (1) Meg Whitman, the Republican; (2) Jerry Brown, the Democrat; (3) Dale F. Ogden, the Libertarian; (4) Chelene Nightingale, the American Independent; (5) Laura Wells, the Green; (6) Carlos Alvarez, the Peace and Freedom candidate; or someone else? 38% Meg Whitman, the Republican 37 Jerry Brown, the Democrat 2 Dale F. Ogden, the Libertarian 1 Chelene Nightingale, the American Independent 2 Laura Wells, the Green 2 Carlos Alvarez, the Peace and Freedom candidate – someone else (specify) 18 don’t know 8. In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for governor on November 2nd? 45% satisfied 49 not satisfied 6 don’t know 9. How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2010 governor’s election? 30% very closely 51 fairly closely 16 not too closely 2 not at all closely 1 don’t know 10.If the November 2nd election for U.S. senate were being held today, would you vote for [rotate] (1) Carly Fiorina, the Republican; (2) Barbara Boxer, the Democrat; (3) Gail K. Lightfoot, the Libertarian; (4) Edward C. Noonan, the American Independent; (5) Duane Roberts, the Green; (6) Marsha Feinland, the Peace and Freedom candidate; or someone else? 35% Carly Fiorina, the Republican 42 Barbara Boxer, the Democrat 1 Gail K. Lightfoot, the Libertarian 1 Edward C. Noonan, the American Independent 2 Duane Roberts, the Green 1 Marsha Feinland, the Peace and Freedom candidate 1 someone else (specify) 17 don’t know 11.In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for U.S. senator on November 2nd? 64% satisfied 29 not satisfied 7 don’t know September 2010 Californians and Their Government 28 PPIC Statewide Survey [rotate questions 12 and 13] 12. People have different ideas about the qualifications they want when they vote for candidates for statewide office, such as governor or U.S. senator. Which of these is most important to you? [rotate] (1) That the candidate has experience in elected office, [or] (2) That the candidate has experience running a business? 44% experience in elected office 43 experience running a business 5 neither (volunteered) 6 both (volunteered) 2 don’t know 13. People have different ideas on how candidates for statewide office should pay for their political campaigns. Which of these do you view most positively? [rotate] (1) A candidate using mostly his or her own money to pay for political campaigning, [or] (2) A candidate using mostly money collected from his or her supporters to pay for political campaigning? 32% own money 56 money from supporters 12 don’t know Next, we have a few questions to ask you about some of the propositions on the November ballot. [rotate 4 blocks of questions randomly: (1) 14, 15; (2) 16, 17; (3) 18, 19; (4) 20, 21] 14. Proposition 19 is called the “Legalizes Marijuana Under California but Not Federal Law. Permits Local Governments to Regulate and Tax Commercial Production, Distribution, and Sale of Marijuana. Initiative Statute.” It allows people 21 years old or older to possess, cultivate, or transport marijuana for personal use. Depending on federal, state, and local government actions, fiscal impact is potential increased tax and fee revenues in the hundreds of millions of dollars annually and potential correctional savings of several tens of millions of dollars annually. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 19? 52% yes 41 no 7 don’t know 15.How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 19—is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 49% very important 31 somewhat important 13 not too important 5 not at all important 2 don’t know 16. Proposition 23 is called the “Suspends Implementation of Air Pollution Control Law (AB 32) Requiring Major Sources of Emissions to Report and Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions That Cause Global Warming, Until Unemployment Drops to 5.5 Percent or Less for Full Year. Initiative Statute.” Fiscal Impact is a likely modest net increase in overall economic activity in the state from suspension of greenhouse gases regulatory activity, resulting in a potentially significant net increase in state and local revenues. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 23? 43% yes 42 no 15 don’t know September 2010 Californians and Their Government 29 PPIC Statewide Survey 17.How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 23—is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 45% very important 36 somewhat important 10 not too important 2 not at all important 7 don’t know 18.Proposition 24 is called the “Repeals Recent Legislation That Would Allow Businesses to Lower Their Tax Liability. Initiative Statute.” Fiscal Impact is increased state revenues of about $1.3 billion each year by 2012-13 from higher taxes paid by some businesses and smaller increases in 2010-11 and 2011-12. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 24? 35% yes 35 no 30 don’t know 19.How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 24—is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 29% very important 41 somewhat important 12 not too important 3 not at all important 15 don’t know 20.Proposition 25 is called the “Changes Legislative Vote Requirement to Pass Budget and Budget-related Legislation from Two-Thirds to a Simple Majority. Retains Two-Thirds Vote Requirement for Taxes. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.” The legislature permanently forfeits daily salary and expenses until budget bill passes. Fiscal Impact is, in some years, the contents of the state budget could be changed due to the lower legislative vote requirement in this measure. The extent of changes would depend on the Legislature’s future actions. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 25? 48% yes 35 no 17 don’t know 21.How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 25—is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 49% very important 33 somewhat important 9 not too important 2 not at all important 7 don’t know Changing topics, 22.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California? 28% approve 64 disapprove 8 don’t know 23.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job? 16% approve 75 disapprove 9 don’t know September 2010 Californians and Their Government 30 PPIC Statewide Survey 24.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that the state legislators representing your assembly and senate districts are doing at this time? 31% approve 56 disapprove 13 don’t know 25.On another topic, do you think the state budget situation in California—that is, the balance between government spending and revenues—is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today? 80% big problem 17 somewhat of a problem 2 not a problem 1 don’t know 26.As you may know, the state government currently has an annual budget of around 85 billion dollars and faces a multibillion-dollar gap between spending and revenues. How would you prefer to deal with the state's budget gap—mostly through spending cuts, mostly through tax increases, through a mix of spending cuts and tax increases, or do you think that it is okay for the state to borrow money and run a budget deficit? 40% mostly through spending cuts 7 mostly through tax increases 40 mix of spending cuts and tax increases 7 okay to borrow money and run a budget deficit 2 other (specify) 4 don’t know [responses recorded for questions 27 to 30 are for likely voters] 27.[likely voters only] Do you think it is a good idea or bad idea to lower the vote requirement to pass a state budget and state taxes from a two-thirds vote to a simple majority or 50 percent plus one vote? 44% good idea 46 bad idea 10 don’t know 28.[likely voters only] Do you favor or oppose raising the state taxes paid by California corporations to address the state budget deficit? 42% favor 50 oppose 8 don’t know 29.[likely voters only] Next, do you think that California doing things to reduce global warming in the future would cause there to be more jobs for people around the state, would cause there to be fewer jobs, or wouldn’t affect the number of jobs for people around the state? 41% more jobs 26 fewer jobs 24 wouldn’t affect the number of jobs 9 don’t know 30.[likely voters only] In general, do you think the use of marijuana should be made legal, or not? 51% yes, legal 45 no, illegal 4 don’t know 31.Changing topics, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president of the United States? 52% approve 43 disapprove 5 don’t know [rotate questions 32 and 33] 32.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Dianne Feinstein is handling her job as U.S. senator? 44% approve 39 disapprove 17 don’t know 33.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barbara Boxer is handling her job as U.S. senator? 41% approve 45 disapprove 14 don’t know September 2010 Californians and Their Government 31 PPIC Statewide Survey 34.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job? 26% approve 66 disapprove 8 don’t know 35.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the U.S. House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job? 43% approve 39 disapprove 18 don’t know 36.Turning to economic conditions, do you think that during the next 12 months the United States will have good times financially or bad times? 35% good times 58 bad times 7 don’t know 37.Next, since taking office, have Barack Obama’s economic policies made economic conditions better, worse, or not had an effect so far? 32% better 28 worse 36 no effect so far 2 too soon to tell (volunteered) 2 don’t know 38.Overall, do you think that [rotate] (1) Congress [and] (2) the Obama administration are doing more than enough, just enough, or not enough to help create jobs? 7% more than enough 26 just enough 64 not enough 3 don’t know 39.On another topic, please indicate which statement comes closest to your own view—even if neither is exactly right. [rotate] (1) Immigrants today are a benefit to California because of their hard work and job skills [or] (2) Immigrants today are a burden to California because they use public services? 54% immigrants are a benefit to California 39 immigrants are a burden to California 7 don’t know 40.If you had to choose, what do you think should happen to most illegal immigrants who have lived and worked in the United States for at least two years? [rotate] (1) They should be given a chance to keep their jobs and eventually apply for legal status [or] (2) They should be deported back to their native country? 66% chance to keep their jobs 30 deported back to their native country 4 don’t know 41.On another topic, do you favor or oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to be legally married? 52% favor 42 oppose 6 don’t know 42. As you may know, Proposition 8, which eliminated the right of same-sex couples to marry, was approved by voters in November 2008. Last month, a United States district court struck down Proposition 8, ruling it unconstitutional. Do you agree or disagree with the court’s ruling that Proposition 8 is unconstitutional? 46% agree 48 disagree 6 don’t know September 2010 Californians and Their Government 32 PPIC Statewide Survey 43.Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 9% very liberal 23 somewhat liberal 29 middle-of-the-road 24 somewhat conservative 14 very conservative 1 don’t know 44.Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics? 25% great deal 40 fair amount 27 only a little 7 none 1 don’t know [d1-d18: demographic questions] September 2010 Californians and Their Government 33 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ruben Barrales President and Chief Executive Officer San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce Angela Blackwell Founder and Chief Executive Officer PolicyLink Paul Brest President The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Mollyann Brodie Senior Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Executive Director University of California Washington Center James E. Canales President The James Irvine Foundation Jon Cohen Director of Polling The Washington Post Matthew K. Fong Special Counsel Sheppard, Mullin, Richter & Hampton, LLP Russell Hancock President and Chief Executive Officer Joint Venture Silicon Valley Network William Hauck President California Business Roundtable Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Carol S. Larson President and Chief Executive Officer The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Monica Lozano Publisher and Chief Executive Officer La Opinión Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Dan Rosenheim News Director KPIX-TV Robert K. Ross, M.D. President and Chief Executive Officer The California Endowment Most Reverend Jaime Soto Bishop of Sacramento Roman Catholic Diocese of Sacramento Cathy Taylor Vice President and Editorial Commentary Director Orange County Register Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Emeritus Great Valley Center The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PPIC BOARD OF DIRECTORS Walter B. Hewlett, Chair Director Center for Computer Assisted Research in the Humanities Mark Baldassare President and Chief Executive Officer Public Policy Institute of California Ruben Barrales President and Chief Executive Officer San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce Maria Blanco Executive Director Chief Justice Earl Warren Institute on Race, Ethnicity and Diversity University of California, Berkeley School of Law John E. Bryson Retired Chairman and CEO Edison International Gary K. Hart Former State Senator and Secretary of Education State of California Robert M. Hertzberg Partner Mayer Brown, LLP Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs David Mas Masumoto Author and farmer Steven A. Merksamer Senior Partner Nielsen, Merksamer, Parrinello, Mueller & Naylor, LLP Constance L. Rice Co-Director The Advancement Project Thomas C. Sutton Retired Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Pacific Life Insurance Company The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research on major economic, social, and political issues. The institute’s goal is to raise public awareness and to give elected representatives and other decisionmakers a more informed basis for developing policies and programs. The institute’s research focuses on the underlying forces shaping California’s future, cutting across a wide range of public policy concerns, including economic development, education, environment and resources, governance, population, public finance, and social and health policy. PPIC is a private operating foundation. It does not take or support positions on any ballot measures or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. PPIC was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. Mark Baldassare is President and Chief Executive Officer of PPIC. Walter B. Hewlett is Chair of the Board of Directors. Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source and the copyright notice below is included. Copyright © 2010 Public Policy Institute of California All rights reserved. San Francisco, CA PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, California 94111 phone: 415.291.4400 fax: 415.291.4401 www.ppic.org survey@ppic.org PPIC SACRAMENTO CENTER Senator Office Building 1121 L Street, Suite 801 Sacramento, California 95814 phone: 916.440.1120 fax: 916.440.1121" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 09:40:47" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(8) "s_910mbs" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:40:47" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 09:40:47" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["guid"]=> string(50) "http://148.62.4.17/wp-content/uploads/S_910MBS.pdf" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_mime_type"]=> string(15) "application/pdf" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" ["status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["attachment_authors"]=> bool(false) }