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object(Timber\Post)#3711 (44) { ["ImageClass"]=> string(12) "Timber\Image" ["PostClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Post" ["TermClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Term" ["object_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["custom"]=> array(5) { ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(12) "S_914MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "672628" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(94610) "CONTENTS About the Survey 2 Press Release 3 November 2014 Election 6 State and National Issues 13 Regional Map 24 Methodology25 Questionnaire and Results 2 7 th eir government SEPTEMBER 2014 & P P I C S TAT E W I D E S U R V E Y Californians Mark Baldassare Dean Bonner Renatta DeFever Lunna Lopes Jui Shrestha in collaboration with The James Irvine Foundation ABOUT THE SURVEY The PPIC Statewide Sur vey provides policymakers, the media, and the public with objective, advocacy- free information on the perceptions, opinions, and public policy preferences of California residents. This is the 144th PPIC Statewide Sur vey in a series that was inaugurated in April 1998 and has generated a database of responses from more than 302,000 Californians. This is the 63rd in the Californians and Their Government series. The survey is conducted periodically to examine the social, economic, and political trends that influence public policy preferences and ballot choices. Suppor ted with funding from The James Ir vine Foundation, the series seeks to inform decisionmakers, raise public awareness, and stimulate policy discussions and debate about impor tant state and national issues. This sur vey was conducted two months before a November gener al election in which Californians will vote on a full slate of statewide offices —including governor—as well as six ballot propositions. A mong the propositions are two measures put on the ballot by the legislature (Propositions 1 and 2) to address water and fiscal issues. Californians are enduring one of the most severe droughts in the state’s histor y , which has prompted state and local officials to take action. At the national level, the 2010 health care law remains a contentious issue as the second open-enrollment period approaches . And President Obama recently announced that he would not take executive action on immigration until after the election. The sur vey presents the responses of 1,702 adult residents throughout California, inter viewed in English or Spanish by landline or cell phone. It includes findings on the following topics:  November 2014 election, including preferences in the governor’s race, attention to news about the gubernatorial election, and satisfaction with choices of candidates; attitudes toward Democrats gaining a two- thirds majority in the California Legisla ture and outcome preferences for congressional elections; suppor t for and perceptions of the impor tance of four propositions: Proposition 1 (authorizes $7.5 billion for water quality, supply, treatment, and storage projects), Proposition 2 (creates a state budget stabilization account), Proposition 45 (requires approval for changes to health insurance rates), Proposition 47 (changes sentencing for certain drug and proper ty offenses) .  State and national issues, including approval ratings of Governor Brown and the legislature; views on the direction of the state and future economic outlook; perceptions of the state budget situation, the size of government, and the need for changes to the budget process; attitudes toward the initiative process , including the role of voters in making fiscal policy and the role that special inter ests play; views on the s eriousness of regional water supply problems and suppor t for a hypothetical local water bond; approval ratings of President Obama, Congress, and U.S. senators Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein; attitudes toward health care and immigration reform; and disaster preparedness and perceptions .  Time trends, national comparisons, and the extent to which Californians may differ in their perceptions, attitudes, and preferences regarding state and federal government based on political par ty affiliation, likelihood o f voting, region of residence, race/ethnicity, and other demographics. This repor t may be downloaded free of charge from our website ( www.ppic.org). If you have questions about the sur vey, please contact sur vey@ppic.org . Tr y our PPIC Statewide Sur vey interactive tools online at www.ppic.org/main/sur vAdvancedSearch.asp. September 2014 Californians and Their Government 2 PPIC Statewide Survey Underscoring their concern about water, 72 percent of likely voters say the supply of water is a big problem in their part of California— up 11 points in just two months (61% July). The survey also asked how Californians would vote if their local water district had a bond measure on the ballot to pay for water supply infrastructure projects. A strong majority of likely voters (67%) say they would vote yes. Majorities of registered Democrats (77%), independents (67%), and Republicans (56%) say they would vote yes, as do residents across regions. And, when asked the most important issue facing the state’s residents today, 29 percent of likely voters name water and drought, second only to jobs and the economy (32%). “The state water bond is supported by a 2– 1 margin,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO. “More and more Californians perceive the drought as the top state issue and their region’s water supply as a big problem.” SOLID MAJORITY FAVOR PROPOSITION 47 Proposition 47 would require a m isdemeanor sentence instead of a felony for certain drug and property offenses. It would not apply to offenders with prior convictions for serious or violent crime or to registered sex offenders. A majority of likely voters (62%) would vote yes on this mea sure, 25 percent would vote no, and 13 percent don’t know. Solid majorities of Democrats (69%) and independents (64%) would vote yes. Half of Republicans (50%) would vote yes (32% no, 19% don’t know). Asked about the importance of the vote on this measure, 42 percent say the outcome is very important to them. SUPPORT FOR PROPOSITION 2 FALLS SHORT OF MAJORITY Two years after passing Proposition 30, voters are being asked again to address the state’s budget situation. Proposition 2 would establish a budget s tabilization account, or rainy day fund, that would include a separate reserve for public schools. Among likely voters, 43 percent would vote yes, 33 percent would vote no, and 24 percent don’t know. The results are similar across parties , with less than h alf of partisans saying they would vote yes. Across all demographic groups, Proposition 2 has neither majority support or majority opposition. Just 30 percent of likely voters say the outcome of the vote on this measure is very important to them. At the s ame time, a solid majority of likely voters (62%) say the state’s budget situation is a big problem, and 53 percent say the state budget process is in need of major changes (31 % minor changes). “Support for Proposition 2 is falling short of a majority, ev en though many voters still think the state budget situation is a big problem and believe that California is headed into bad economic times,” Baldassare said. HALF FAVOR PROPOSITIO N 45 Proposition 45 would require the state insurance commissioner’s approva l for changes in health insurance rates or other charges. About half of likely voters (48%) favor this proposition, 38 percent are opposed , and 14 percent are undecided. A majority of Democrats (54%) and half of independents (49%) support Proposition 45. R epublicans are more likely to oppose (47%) than support it (39%). Among likely voters, 42 percent say the outcome of the vote on this measure is very important to them. Asked about their views of the federal health reform law, likely voters remain divided : 45 percent view it favorably and 49 percent unfavorably. Among all adults, Californians with health insurance are much more likely to have a favorable opinion of the law than those without (44% to 32%). The survey also asked about the effect of the law. A majority of likely voters (5 6 %) say it has had no direct impact on them or their families, while 18 percent say it has directly helped them or their families and 24 percent say it has hurt them. Among all adults, Californians with household incomes of less than $40,000 (27%) are more likely to say the law has helped them than those with higher September 2014 Californians and Their Government 4 PPIC Statewide Survey incomes (13% $40,000 to $80,000, 15% $80,000 or more). Latinos (26%) and blacks (25%) are the most likely to say the law has helped them, followed by Asians (20%) and whites (14%). CALIFORNIANS FEELING BETTER A BOUT THEIR STATE Californians are feeling more positive about the state than they were when they cast their ballots two years ago. Today, 43 percent of likel y voters say things in California are generally going in the right direction (29% September 2012), although 52 percent say it is going in the wrong direction. Asked about economic conditions, 44 percent of likely voters say the state will have good times f inancially in the next year (29% September 2012), while 46 percent expect bad times. Baldassare noted: “The mood of the California electorate is much more upbeat today than two years ago, and this is a trend that works in favor of the political status quo and incumbents this fall.” As the legislative session ended with a brighter state budget picture, 32 percent of likely voters say they approve of the way the state legislature is doing its job. Just 22 percent expressed th is view in September 2012. The legislature’s job approval rating has changed little this year (33% January) despite recent political scandals. Because of the legal problems of some members, legislative Democrats lost the supermajority they gained in 2012. Asked how they feel about the pos sibility that Democrats would regain a supermajority, likely voters are split: 34 percent say it would be a good thing, 37 percent say it would be a bad thing, and 28 percent say it would make no difference. OBAMA’S APPROVAL RAT ING AT RECORD LOW President Obama’s job approval rating among California likely voters matches the record -low 46 percent he got in January. Not surprisingly, there is a wide partisan divide, with 72 percent of registered Democrats approving and 82 percent of Republicans disapproving of the president’s job performance. Independents are more likely to disapprove (55%) than approve (39%). Congress continues to get a low rating, with just 16 percent of likely voters approving of its job performance. These results are similar to those i n recent surveys (14% May, 15% July). How would California’s likely voter s like to see this year’s congressional elections play out? Half (50%) prefer that Democrats control Congress, while 40 percent prefer that Republicans be in control (10% don’t know) . Asked to evaluate the state’s two Democratic senators, 55 percent of likely voters approve of the job Dianne Feinstein is doing, similar to last September (51%). Barbara Boxer’s rating is 10 points lower at 45 percent, also si milar to last September (48%) . MORE KEY FINDINGS  Happy with the initiative process —page 17 Most Californians (65%) and likely voters (66%) are at least somewhat satisfied with the way the initiative process is working. Large majorities (81% adults, 78% likely voters) say the state’s voters should make some of the decisions involved in the state budget —as they are in voting on Propositions 1 and 2 this fall .  Most see immigrants as a benefit rather than burden— page 21 A solid majority of Californians (61%) and half of likely voters (51%) say immigrants benefit the state. Californians are divided on whether securing the border or addressing the status of ill egal immigrants should be a higher priority .  Ready for a disaster? Half have an emergency kit —pag es 22, 23 In the wake of a 6.0 magnitude earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area , 64 percent of Californians say they are at least somewhat worried about the impact of a major disaster on their households . Half of Californians (52%) say they have a disaster supply kit in their households. September 2014 Californians and Their Government 5 NOVEMBER 2014 ELECTION KEY FINDINGS  In the governor’s race, Jerry Brown leads Neel Kas hkari among likely voters by a 21- point margin ( 54% to 3 3%). Fifty -five percent of likely voters are satisfied with their choice of candidates , with Democrats (7 1%) far mo re satisfied than Republicans (38 %). ( page 7 )  Likely voters are divided about whether it would be a good or bad thing if Democrats gain a two -thirds majority in the state legislature. Fifty percent of likely voters say that a Congress controlled by Democrats is their preferred outcome of congressional elections. (page 8 )  Fifty -eight percent of likely voters say they will vote in favor of Proposition 1, which authorizes $7.5 billion for water quality, supply, treatment, and storage projects. Half view the outcome of the proposition as very important . (page 9)  On Proposition 2, which would establish a budget stabilization account, 43 percent of likely voters would vote yes, 3 3 percent wo uld vote no, and 2 4 percent are undecided. Just three in 10 view the outcome of Proposition 2 as very important. ( page 10)  About half of likely voters (48%) would vote yes on Proposition 45, which requires approval of the insurance commi ssioner for changes to health insurance rates , and 38 percent would vote no. Four in 10 likely voters see the outcome of this proposition as very important. (page 11 )  On Proposition 47, which changes sentencing for certain drug and property offenses, 62 percent would vote yes and 2 5 percent would vote no. Forty -two percent of likely voters view the outcome of this proposition as very important. (page 12 ) 48 62 38 25 1413 0 20 40 60 80 Prop 45: HealthcareInsurance, RateChanges Prop 47: CriminalSentences,Misdemeanor Penalties Percent likely voters Yes No Don't know Vote on Propositions 45 and 47 58 43 2933 14 24 0 20 40 60 80 Prop 1: Water Bond,Funding for WaterQuality, Supply,Treatment, andStorage Projects Prop 2: State Budget,Budget StabilizationAccount Percent likely voters Yes No Don't know Vote on Propositions 1 and 2 5254 3333 42 1111 0 20 40 60 80 JulySeptember Percent likely voters Jerry Brown Neel Kashkari Would not vote (volunteered) Don't know 2014 Gubernatorial Election September 2014 Californians and Their Government 6 PPIC Statewide S urvey GUBERNATORIAL ELECTI ON With the gubernatorial election less than two months away, just half of likely voters are very (12%) or fairly closely (40%) following news about the candidates. Attention to news today is far lower than it was in September 2010 (30% very, 51% fairly). In September 2006, the last election involving an incumbent governor , attention to news was also much higher (17% very, 57% fairly) than it is today. In an election where few are paying very close attention to candidates, incumbent Democrat Jerry Brown leads Republican challenger Neel Kashkari by a 21 -point margin (54% to 33%) among likely voters. His lead today is similar to the 19 -point margin he had in July (52% to 33%). Brown enjoys the support of 86 percent of Democrats, while Kashkari has the support of 64 percent of Republicans . Independents prefer Brown to Kashkari by 14 points (45% to 31%) with 19 percent unsure . Neel Kashkari has majority support among likely voters in Orange/San Diego (51%), while Jerry Brown has the support of at least half of voters in the Central Valley (50%), Los Angeles (59%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (70%). Likely voters in the Inland Empire are divided (48% Brown, 44% Kashkari). Women (59%) are more likely than men (49%) and Latinos (74%) are far more likely than whites (44%) to support Brown. “If the November 4th election for governor were being held today, would you vote for Jerry Brown, a Democrat, or Neel Kashkari, a Republican?” Likely voters only Jerry Brown, a Democrat Neel Kashkari, a Republican Would not vote for governor (volunteered) Don’t know All likely voters 54% 33% 2% 11% Party Democrat s 86 8 2 5 Republican s 19 64 1 15 Independent s 45 31 5 19 Region Central Valley 50 37 4 9 San Francisco Bay Area 70 17 2 10 Los Angeles 59 29 3 9 Orange/San Diego 32 51 1 16 Inland Empire 48 44 – 8 Gender Men 49 38 3 10 Women 59 28 2 12 Race/E thnicity * Latino s 74 19 3 5 White s 44 41 3 12 *Sample sizes for Asian and black likely voters are too small for separate analysis Fifty-five percent of likely voters are satisfied with their choice of candidates for governor; 31 percent are not satisfied. By comparison, in September 2010 fewer than half were satisfied (45% satisfied, 49% not satisfied). Today, Democrats (71%) and Brown supporters (74%) are far more likely than Republicans (38%) and Kashkari supporters (39%) to be satisfied. Half of independents are satisfied (49%). “In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for governor on November 4th?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Gubernatorial vote choice Dem Rep Ind Jerry Brown Neel Kashkari Satisfied 55% 71% 38% 49% 74% 39% Not satisfied 31 19 43 32 15 50 Don’t know 14 10 19 19 11 11 September 2014 Californians and Their Government 7 PPIC Statewide S urvey OUTCOME OF LEGISLATI VE AND CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS In the wake of the 2012 electio n, Democrats in the California L egislature gained a supermajority, but the legal troubles of individual legislators erased this two -thirds majority about a year later. A s voters go to the polls in 2014, only 34 percent of likely voters view a potential Democratic supermajority as a good thing, while 37 percent view it as a bad thing and 28 percent say it would make no difference. Likely voters were slightly more optimisti c about the Democratic supermajority in January 2013 , when 41 percent said it was a good thing that Democrats had a two -thirds majority, 36 percent said it was a bad t hing, and 22 percent said it made no difference. Partisan likely voters differ greatly in their opinions of a Democratic supermajority: 62 percent of Democrats say it would be a good thing , while 73 percent of Republicans say bad thing. Independent likely voters are divided (37% makes no difference, 37% bad thing, 23% good thing ). A plurality of likely voters in the Central Valley (41%) and Orange/San Diego (47%) say bad thing, while a plurality of voters in the San Francisco Bay Area (42%) say good thing. Voters in Los Angeles (36% good thing, 30% bad thing, and 33% no difference) and the Inland Empire (35% good thing, 38% bad thing, and 23% no difference) are more divided. Nearly half of Latinos (48%) say good thing, while nearly half of whites (49%) say bad thing. “If the Democrats in the state legislature gained a two- thirds majority as a result of the November 2014 election, do you think that this would be a good thing or a bad thing for California, or does it make no difference?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Race/E thnicity Dem Rep Ind Latino White Good thing 34% 62% 6% 23% 48% 28% Bad thing 37 9 73 37 13 49 No difference 28 28 20 37 37 22 Don’t know 2 2 1 3 2 2 Half of likely voters (50%) prefer that this year’s congressional elections lead to a Congress controlled by Democrats; four in 10 say they prefer a Congress controlled by Republicans. Opinions were similar in September 2012 (52% Democratic control, 38% Republican control), but voters were more divided in October 2010 (45% Democratic control, 43% Republican control). In the lead-up to the 2006 election 55 percent of likely voters preferred Democratic control (37% Republican control). Today, m ost Democrat ic (87%) and Republican (81%) likely voters prefer that their party control Congress ; independents are evenly divided (41% Democratic control, 41% Republican control). Slightly more than half of voters in the Inland Empire (53%) and Orange/San Diego (54%) prefer Republican control, while majorities of voters in Los Angeles (58%) and the S an Francisco Bay Area (65%) prefer Democratic control. Likely voters in the Central Valley are divided (44% Democratic control, 44% Republican control). Two in three Latinos (68%) prefer Democratic control, while whites are divided (49% Democratic control, 40% Republican control). Nationally, in a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, registered voters were divided (43% Democratic control, 45% Republican control). “What is your preference for the outcome of this year's congressional elections: a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Race/ Ethnicity Dem Rep Ind Latino White Controlled by Republicans 40% 8% 81% 41% 23% 49% Controlled by Democrats 50 87 9 41 68 40 Don’t know 10 5 10 18 9 11 September 2014 Californians and Their Government 8 PPIC Statewide S urvey PROPOSITION 1 In the midst of a severe drought , California voters will vote on Proposition 1, a $7.5 billion bond to fund water quality, supply, treatment, and storage projects. The history of Proposition 1 dates back to fall 2009 , when the California L egislature passed the Safe, Clean, and Reliable Dr inking Water Supply Act of 2010 with a price tag of $11 .1 billion. The measure was removed from the ballot in both 2010 and 2012, and in 2014 it was scaled down and placed on the ballot as Proposition 1. When read the ballot title and label , 58 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 29 percent would vote no, and 14 percent are undecided. Proposition 1 has majority support among Democrats (68%) and independents (59%). Republican voters are divided (44% yes, 36% no) but one in five are undecided. W hile there is majority support across regions, support is highest in the San Francisco Bay Area (64%) and the Inland Empire (62%), followed by voters in the Central Valley (55%), Los Angeles (55%), and Orange/San Diego (51%). There is also majority support across all demographic groups. Among those who view the supply of water as a big problem, 61 percent support Proposition 1; among those who say the water supply is not much of a problem, only 32 percent would vote yes. “Proposition 1 is called the ‘Water Bond. Funding for Water Quality, Supply, Treatment, and Storage Projects.’ If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on Proposition 1?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 58% 29% 14% Party Democrat s 68 22 11 Republican s 44 36 20 Independent s 59 29 12 Region Central Valley 55 31 14 San Francisco Bay Area 64 25 11 Los Angeles 55 31 14 Orange/San Diego 51 27 22 Inland Empire 62 23 14 Income Under $40,000 65 22 13 $40,000 to under $80,000 51 30 19 $80,000 or more 59 30 10 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 28. Half of likely voters say the outcome of Proposition 1 is very important to them. This perception varies across parties and is higher among Latinos (62%) and women (55%) than whites (48%) and men (48%). The share saying it is very important is far higher a mong supporters than opponents of Proposition 1. “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 1?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Vote on Proposition 1 Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 51% 56% 49% 40% 60% 36% Somewhat important 35 29 38 47 35 39 Not too important 7 10 4 5 4 17 Not at all important 2 2 4 2 1 7 Don’t know 4 3 5 5 – 1 September 2014 Californians and Their Government 9 PPIC Statewide S urvey PROPOSITION 2 Two years after passing Proposition 30, voters will go to the polls to address the state’s budget situation again. This time it is to establish a budget stabilization account , or rainy day fund, that would include a separate reserve for public schools. Proposition 2 is a replacement for another amendment that was originally slated to be on the 2012 ballot . When read the ballot title and label , 43 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 33 percent would vote no, and 24 percent are undecided. The results are similar across parties, with fewer than half of partisans saying they would vote yes. About half of likely voters in the Inland Empire (50%), the Central Valley (49%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (48%) would vote yes, while those in Los Angeles and Orange/San Diego are more divided. Women (39%) are less likely than men (47%) to express support and a re twice as likely to be undecided (32% to 16%). Latinos are divided on Proposition 2 (43% yes, 44% no); whites are more likely to express support than opposition (41% yes, 32% no) but three in 10 are undecided. Importantly, Proposition 2 does not have majority support or majority opposition across demographic groups. “Proposition 2 is called the ‘State Budget. Budget Stabilization Account Legislative Constitutional Amendment.’ If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on Proposition 2?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 43% 33% 24% Party Democrat s 46 31 23 Republican s 39 34 26 Independent s 43 33 24 Region Central Valley 49 30 21 San Francisco Bay Area 48 23 29 Los Angeles 37 38 25 Orange/San Diego 41 33 26 Inland Empire 50 38 12 Household income Under $40,000 46 37 17 $40,000 to under $80,000 45 32 23 $80,000 or more 40 32 28 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 29. Three in 10 likely voters say the outcome of Proposition 2 is very important to them, and this perception is similar across parties (29% Democrats, 31% Republicans, 35% independents) . About one in three of both supporters and opponents of the proposition view the outcome as very important , but opponents are more l ikely than supporters to say the outcome is not too or not at all important. “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 2?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Vote on Proposition 2 Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 30% 29% 31% 35% 34% 31% Somewhat important 42 43 38 39 55 37 Not too important 14 17 9 16 11 22 Not at all important 3 1 5 3 – 7 Don’t know 11 10 16 7 – 3 September 2014 Californians and Their Government 10 PPIC Statewide S urvey PROPOSITION 45 Proposition 45 would require the insurance c ommissioner’s approval for changes to charges associated with health insurance. When read the ballot title and label, 48 percent of likely voters would vote yes, 38 percent would vote no, and 14 percent are unsure. A majority of Democrats (54%) and half of independents (49%) support Proposition 45. Republicans are more likely to oppose (47%) than support (39%) it. At least half of likely voters in the Inland Empire (55%), the San Francisco Bay Area (53%), and Los Angeles (50%) support Proposition 45 . Four in 10 residents in Orange/San Diego (41%) and the Central Valley (42%) express support. A majority of Latino likely voters (56%) would vote yes , while fewer white likely voters (45%) would do so. Support for Proposition 45 is much higher among likely voter s earning under $40,000 (58%) than those with higher incomes (41% $40,000 to less than $80,000, 46% $80,000 or more). A solid majority of likely voters who say the 2010 health reform law helped them would vote yes (67%) , as would 47 percent of those who say the law has had no direct impact on them; half of those who say the law hurt them would vote no (49%). “Proposition 45 is called the ‘Healthcare Insurance. Rate Changes. Initiative Statute.’ If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on Pro position 45?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 48% 38% 14% Party Democrat s 54 30 15 Republican s 39 47 14 Independent s 49 38 13 Region Central Valley 42 42 16 San Francisco Bay Area 53 33 15 Los Angeles 50 35 15 Orange/San Diego 41 47 12 Inland Empire 55 35 10 Impact of 2010 health reform law Helped 67 20 13 Hurt 39 49 12 No direct impact 47 38 15 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 29. Four in 10 likely voters (42%) say the outcome is very important to them and this perception is similar across parties ( 43% Republicans, 42% Democrats, 37% independents). Among those who would vote yes, half say the outcome is very important (51%). By comparison, 37 percent of those who would vote no think the outcome of the vote on Proposition 45 is very important. “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 45?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Vote on Proposition 45 Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 42% 42% 43% 37% 51% 37% Somewhat important 36 39 32 38 41 34 Not too important 13 11 15 15 7 21 Not at all important 4 2 5 6 – 7 Don’t know 6 6 6 5 – – September 2014 Californians and Their Government 11 PPIC Statewide S urvey PROPOSITION 47 Proposition 47 requires a misdemeanor sentence instead of a felony for certain drug and property offenses but is inapplicable to registered sex offenders and persons with a prior conviction for serious or violent crime s. When read the ballot title and labe l, 62 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 25 percent would vote no, and 13 percent are unsure. Solid majorities of Democrats (69%) and independents (64%) say they would vote yes, as would half of Republicans (50%, 32% say no). Strong majoriti es of liberals (79%) and moderates (73%) would vote yes; conservatives are divided (43% vote yes, 43% vote no). Across regions, support is highest in the Inland Empire (74%), followed by the San Francisco Bay Area (65%), Los Angeles (59%), Central Valley ( 57%), and Orange/San Diego (56%). Support is higher among likely voters earning annual incomes less than $40,000 (69%) than those with higher incomes (58% $40,000 or more). More than six in 10 Latinos (67%) , whites (62%), men (61%) , and women (63%) would v ote yes on Proposition 47. “Proposition 47 is called the ‘Criminal Sentences. Misdemeanor Penalties. Initiative Statute.’ If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on Proposition 47?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 62% 25% 13% Party Democrat s 69 22 10 Republican s 50 32 19 Independent s 64 25 12 Region Central Valley 57 31 12 San Francisco Bay Area 65 21 14 Los Angeles 59 29 12 Orange/San Diego 56 25 19 Inland Empire 74 16 10 Income Under $40,000 69 22 9 $40,000 to under $80,000 58 30 11 $80,000 or more 58 26 16 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 30. Regarding the importance of the outcome of the vote on Proposition 47, four in 10 likely voters (42%) say the outcome is very important. This perception varies slightly across parties (45% Democrats, 40% independents, 37% Republicans). Those who would vote yes (49%) are more likely than those who would vote no (38%) to say the outcome is very important. “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 47?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Vote on Proposition 47 Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 42% 45% 37% 40% 49% 38% Somewhat important 38 35 44 40 44 33 Not too important 11 11 9 9 6 23 Not at all important 3 2 2 6 1 4 Don’t know 6 7 8 4 – 2 September 2014 Californians and Their Government 12 STATE AND NATIONAL ISSUES KEY FINDINGS  With less than two months before the general election, 51 percent of Californians approve of Governor Brown’s job performance; 37 percent approve of the legislature. (page 14)  Slightly more than four in 10 Californians say the state is headed in the right direction and expect good times economically. (page 15)  Fifty -five percent of residents say the state budget situation is a big problem ; 5 3 percent of likely voters prefer lower taxes and smaller government . (page 16)  An overwhelming majority of Californians would prefer that voter s— rather than elected officials —make some of the decisions about spending and taxes. Nine in 10 say the initiati ve process in California is controlled by special interests . (page 17 )  Sixty -five percent of Californians say the water supply in their part of California is a big problem ; 6 7 percent of likely voters would vote yes on a local bond measure for water infra structure projects. ( page 18)  A record -low 48 percent approve of President Obama’s job performance , while 24 percent approve of Congress. (page 19 )  Californians continue to be divided over the 2010 health reform law but most say it has not had a direct impact on them. (page 20 )  Six in 10 view immigrants as a benefit to the state . Californians are divided when it comes to immigration policy priorities . (page 21 )  Two in three Californians are worried about the impact of a disaster on their household; one in four have a great deal of confiden ce in the federal government’s response to a disaster. ( pages 22, 23 ) 41 4851 30 3837 0 20 40 60 80 Sep 2012Sep 2013Sep 2014 Percent all adults Governor Brown California Legislature Approval Ratings of State Elected Officials 6055 48 272824 0 20 40 60 80 Sep 2012Sep 2013Sep 2014 Percent all adults President Obama U.S. Congress Approval Ratings of FederalElected Officials 41 59 46 31 85 CaliforniansAdults nationwide*0 20 40 60 80 Securing the border Status of illegal immigrants Both (volunteered) Priorities forImmigration Policy Percent all adults *CBS News, August 2014 September 2014 Californians and Their Government 13 PPIC Statewide S urvey APPROVAL OF STATE EL ECTED OFFICIALS With less than two months before the November election, 51 percent of adults and 55 percent of likely voters approve of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job. By comparison, 41 percent of adults and 42 percent of likely voters approved of his job performance in our September 2012 poll. The governor’s approval ratings had reached a record -high 58 percent among adults and 60 percent among likely voters in our January 2014 poll. Today, the governor’s approval rating is far higher among Democrats (72%) than among indepe ndents (49%) or Republicans (29%). His approval rating is higher in the San Francisco Bay Area (62%) and Los Angeles (51%) than in other regions (48% Orange/San Diego, 46% Central Valley, 41% Inland Empire) . Approval is similar among men (49%) and women (53%), and pluralities across age, education, income, and racial/ethnic groups approve of his job performance. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California?” Approve Disapprove Don’t know All adults 51% 28 % 21 % Likely voters 55 36 9 Party Democrats 72 13 15 Republicans 29 56 15 Independents 49 31 20 Region Central Valley 46 34 20 San Francisco Bay Area 62 18 20 Los Angeles 51 28 20 Orange/San Diego 48 30 23 Inland Empire 41 35 24 With the 2013– 14 legislative session ending this summer with a brighter state budget picture than in recent years, 37 percent of California adults and 32 percent of likely voters approve of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job. By comparison, 30 percent of adults and 22 percent of likely voters approved of its job performance in our September 2012 poll. The legislature’s approval ratings today have changed little since January (42% adu lts, 33% likely voters), even in the wake of recent political scandals. Today, 44 percent of Democrats express approval, compared to 33 percent of independents and 18 percent of Republicans. San Francisco Bay Area (43%) and Los Angeles residents (42%) are the most likely to approve, followed by residents in Orange/San Diego (39%), the Central Valley (32%), and the Inland Empire (25%). Approval is similar among men (39%) and women (36%). Whites (31%) and blacks (26%) express lower approval than Asians (48%) and Latinos (45%). Sixty percent of those who approve of Governor Brown’s job performance also approve of the legislature’s job performance. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Approve 37% 44 % 18 % 33 % 32 % Disapprove 42 32 69 49 54 Don’t know 20 23 13 18 14 September 2014 Californians and Their Government 14 PPIC Statewide S urvey OVERALL MOOD Californians say that the most important issue in the state today is jobs and the economy (33%), followed by water and the drought (24%). A year ago, 46 percent named jobs and the economy and just 2 percent named water and the drought. Other top issues mentioned today include education (5%), immigration (5%), the state b udget and taxes (4%), and crime, gangs, and drugs (3%). Water and the drought is the most important issue in the Central Valley (39%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (37%) , but is noted much less often in Orange/San Diego (14%), Los Angeles (14%), an d the Inland Empire (13%). An equal proportion of adults and likely voters (43% each) say things in California are generally going in the right direction. Two years ago, 33 percent of adults and 29 percent of likely voters held this view . In our January 20 14 poll, 53 percent of adults and 47 percent of likely voters said that things were going in the right direction. Today, 60 percent of Democrats say that things are going in the right direction, but fewer independents (40%) and Republicans (20%) agree. San Francisco Bay Area residents (60%) are the most likely to say that things are going in the right direction, followed by those living in Los Angeles (49%) , Orange/San Diego (36%), the Central Valley (35%), and the Inland Empire (28%). Men (48%) are somewhat more likely than women (39%) to say that things are going in the right direction. Sixty- six percent of those who approve of Governor Brown say that things in California are generally going in the right direction. “Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Right direction 43% 60 % 20 % 40 % 43 % Wrong direction 48 30 73 55 52 Don’t know 8 10 7 5 6 A similar share of adults and likely voters (44%) say the state will have good times financially in the next 12 months. Two years ago, 33 percent of adults and 29 percent of likely voters said this . In our January 2014 poll, 49 percent of adults and 46 percent of likely vot ers expected good economic times. Today, about half of San Francisco Bay Area (52%) and Orange/San Diego (49%) residents expect good economic times , while fewer hold this view in the Central Valley (45%), Los Angeles (41%), and the Inland Empire (34%). Democrats (53%) express more optimism about the state’s future economic conditions than independents (44%) and Republicans (30%) do . The expectation of good economic times in California is much higher among men (53%) than women (36%). About half of college graduates and those in households earning $80,000 or more expect good economic times ; among those with less education and lower incomes , fewer hold this view . Fifty-six percent of those who approve of Governor Brown expect goo d times financially during the next year. “Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?” All adults Region Likely voters Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Good times 44% 45 % 52% 41% 49% 34% 44 % Bad times 45 47 38 45 43 55 46 Don’t know 10 8 10 13 8 11 10 September 2014 Californians and Their Government 15 PPIC Statewide S urvey STATE BUDGET SITUATI ON A majority of Californians (55%) say that the state budget situation in California is a big problem today (32 % say somewhat of a problem) —even though the economy and fiscal situation have steadily improved in recent years. Likely voters hold similar views (62% big problem, 29% somewhat of a problem). In our September 2012 survey , 69 percent of adults and 83 percent of likely voters said that the state budget situation was a big problem. Today, R epublicans (80%) are much more likely than independents (62%) or Democrats (46%) to say the budget is a big problem. San Francisco Bay Area residents (42%) are the least likely to think that it is a big problem , while majorities of residents in hold this view ( 57% Central Valley, 57% Orange/San Diego, 59% Los Angeles, 62% Inland Empire). Among those who expect good times financially, 40 percent say the state budget situation is a big problem, while 72 percent of those who expect bad times hold this view . “Do you think the state budget situation in California—that is, the balance between government spending and revenues—is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Big problem 55% 46 % 80% 62% 62 % Somewhat of a problem 32 40 18 30 29 Not a problem 7 11 1 6 6 Don’t know 6 3 1 3 2 Californians not only perceive the state’s budget situation as a big problem, but 53 percent also say the state budget process is in need of major changes . Just 30 percent say it is in need of minor changes. And only 10 percent say the state budget process is fine the way it is. In six PPIC Statewide Surveys conducted in 2008 and 2009, the share of adults who said that major changes were needed ranged between 65 and 80 percent . Today, there are strong partisan differences over this issue , with 82 percent of Republicans, 53 percent of independents, and 41 percent of Democrats saying that major changes in the state budget process are needed. Californians are evenly divided when it comes to the size of state gove rnment, with 47 percent saying that they would rather pay higher taxes and have more services and 46 percent preferring to pay lower taxes and have fewer services. In past surveys, Californians have tended to prefer higher taxes and more services or be div ided on their preferred size of government . Today, a majority of likely voters (53%) prefer lower taxes and fewer services, while 41 percent favor higher taxes and more services. Seventy -five percent of Republicans prefer lower taxes and fewer services, 59 percent of Democrats prefer higher taxes and more services, and independents are divided. The preference for higher taxes and more services declines as income increases. Renters, those with a high school education or less, and younger Californians are more likely than others to prefer higher taxes and more services . “In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more—I’d rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, or I’d rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Higher taxes, more services 47% 59 % 19 % 40 % 41 % Lower taxes, fewer services 46 35 75 54 53 Don’t know 6 6 5 5 6 September 2014 Californians and Their Government 16 PPIC Statewide S urvey INITIATIVE PROCESS Who should make the tough choices involved in the state budget? This November, Californians are voting on a state water bond (Proposition 1) and a rainy day fund (Proposition 2) , both placed on the ballot by the governor and legislature . Californians have a strong preference for voters weighing in on issues involving spending and taxes. Eighty-one percent of adults say that California voters should make some of the se decisions at the ballot box; only 15 percent say the governor and legislature should make all of the decisions. Likely voters hold similar views (78% voters, 18% governor and legislature). In five surveys since May 2011, more than three in four adults have said that they prefer voters make some fiscal decisions. To day, strong majorities across political parties hold this view, as do more than seven in 10 adults across age, income, racial/ethnic, and regional groups. “When it comes to the tough choices involved in the state budget this year, would you prefer that t he governor and legislature make all of the decisions about spending and taxes, or that California voters make some of the decisions about spending and taxes at the ballot box?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Governor and legislature 15% 25 % 10 % 12 % 18 % California voters 81 72 85 86 78 Other/Both (volunteered) – – 2 – 1 Don’t know 3 2 3 2 2 Sixty -five percent of Californians are satisfied (11% very, 54% somewhat) with the way the initiative process is working today ; 27 percent are not satisfied. Likely voters have similar opinions (12% very, 54% somewhat, 31% not satisfied). Findings were similar among all adults last March (9% very, 56% somewhat, 29% not satisfied), and at least 55 percent of Californians have been satisfied with the initiative process since we began asking this question in October 2000. Today, strong majorities of Republicans (63%), Democrats (68%), and independents (72%) express satisfaction. Yet few say they are “very satisfied” with the initiativ e process (8% Republicans , 13% Democrat s, 14% independent s). While residents are generally happy with the initiative process, the influence of special interests has been a source of past complaints. Today, most Californians say that the initiative process is controlled a lot (55%) or some (33%) by special interests. Likely voters (65%) are more likely than all adults to say special interests have a lot of control. Majorities of Democrats (63%), Republicans (68%), and independents (58%) say special interests have a lot of control. This perception rises as age and income increase; half or more across regions hold this view. Majorities have consistently said the initiative process is controlled a lot by special interests (52% Jan uary 2001, 56% Sep tember 2005, 5 4% September 2011, 56% September 2012, 55% May 2013, 55% today). “Overall, how much would you say that the initiative process in California today is controlled by special interests?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind A lot 55% 63 % 68 % 58 % 65 % Some 33 28 26 34 27 Not at all 4 4 3 3 5 Don’t know 8 5 4 4 4 September 2014 Californians and Their Government 17 PPIC Statewide Survey September 2014 Californians and Their Government 18 WATER POLICY Second only to jobs and the economy, water and the drought is considered to be the most important issue facing the state; about one quarter of adults in California (24%) hold this view. In addition, strong majorities of adults (65%) consider the supply of water in their part of California a big problem. As drought conditions have worsened in the past six months, there has been a 10 point increase since earlier this year in the share of residents who consider water supply a big problem ( 55% March, 59% May, 54% July, 65% today). Today, likely voters (72%) are slightly more likely than all adults to consider water supply a big problem, up from July when 61 percent considered it a big problem. Residents in the Central Valley (74%), California’s most important agricultural region, are the most likely to consider water supply a big problem, followed by residents in Orange/San Diego (68%), the Inland Empire (67%), the San Francisco Bay Area (64%), and Los Angeles (60%). Those living in Ca lifornia’s inland regions (71%) are slightly more likely than coastal residents (63%) to say water supply is a big probl em. Across ethnic/racial groups, whites (70%) are more likely to say it is a big problem than Latinos ( 63%), blacks (58%), or Asians (57%). The view that this is a big problem rises sharply as age increases. “Would you say that the supply of water is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem in your part of Californ ia?” All adults Region Inland/Coastal Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Big problem 65% 74% 64% 60% 68% 67% 71% 63% Somewhat of a problem 22 18 22 24 20 26 21 22 Not much of a problem 12 8 13 15 12 7 8 14 Don’t know 1 – 1 1 – – – 1   As Californians get ready to decide on Proposition 1 in the November election, what do they think about voting on a local water district bond measure to pay for water supply infrastructure projects? Strong majorities of adults (72%) and likely voters (67%) say they would vo te yes; fewer than one in four would vote no (19% adults, 23% likely voters). San Francisco Bay Area residents (77%) are the most likely to say they would vote yes on this issue, followed by residents in the Central Valley and Los Angeles (72% each), Orange/San Diego (70%), and the Inland Empi re (69%). About seven in 10 inland (70%) and coastal (72%) residents say they would vote yes on a local water bond measure. Across parties, Democrats (77%) are more likely than independents (67%) and Republicans (56%) to vote yes. Support declines as age increases. Eighty-seven percent of residents who say they would vote yes on Proposition 1 on the November ballot say they would also vote yes on a local water bond. “If your local water district had a bond measure on the ballot to pay for water supply infrastructure projects, would you vote yes or no?” All adults Region Likely voters Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Yes 72% 72% 77% 72% 70% 69% 67% No 19 19 17 19 15 24 23 Don’t know 9 9 6 8 15 7 10 PPIC Statewide S urvey APPROVAL OF FEDERAL ELECTED OFFICIALS Today, President Obama’s job approval rating (48%) is at its record low and near previous lows in July (50%), May (51%), and last December (51%). Nationally, the president’s job approval among all adults was at 4 0 percent (50 % disapprove) in a recent CBS/New Yor k Times poll . Among likely voters in California , approval is at 46 percent, the same as in January (46%). The partisan divide on this question holds, with 72 percent of Democrats approving of the president’s job and 82 percent of Republicans disapproving. Independents are more likely to disapprove (55%) than to approve (39%). Blacks (82%) are far more likely than Asians (60%), Latinos (50%), or whites (38%) to approve of the job the president is doing. The U.S. Congress continues to have low approval ratings among Californians (24%). Approval today is similar to what it was last September (28%). Today, a pproval ratings are even lower among likely voters (16%), but they are similar to those in recent surveys (14% May, 15% July). Approval ratings for the U.S. Congress are similar across parties (20% Democrats, 15% Republicans, 16% independents). According to a CNN/ORC poll, 14 percent of all adults in the nation approve of the job the U .S. Congress is doing, while 83 percent disapprove. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that…?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Barack Obama is handling his job as president of the United States Approve 48% 72 % 16 % 39 % 46 % Disapprove 48 23 82 55 51 Don ’t know 4 4 2 5 3 The U.S. Congress is handling its job Approve 24 20 15 16 16 Disapprove 66 73 79 76 80 Don ’t know 10 8 7 8 5 Senator Dianne Feinstein’s approval rating is at 47 percent among all adults and 55 percent among likely voters. Last September , 49 percent approved. Today, her rating among likely voters is similar to what it was last September (55% today, 51% September 2013 ). Forty -one percent of Californians approve of Senator Barbara Boxer, compared to 47 percent last September . The current approval rating for Senator Boxer matches her record -low ratings in September 2010 (41%) and September 2003 (41%). Forty-five percent of likely voters approve of her performance today , similar to our findings last September (4 8%). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that…?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Dianne Feinste in is handling her job as U.S. s enator Approve 47% 70 % 31 % 47 % 55 % Disapprove 33 19 61 38 40 Don’ t know 20 12 8 15 6 Barbara Boxer is handling her job as U.S. s enator Approve 41 66 17 41 45 Disapprove 37 21 74 40 47 Don’t know 21 13 9 19 7 September 2014 Californians and Their Government 19 PPIC Statewide S urvey HEALTH CARE REFORM Californians remain divided between generally favorable (42%) and generally unfavorable (46%) opinions of the health care reform law. Results were similar in May (48% favorable and 43% unfavorable). According to a September Kaiser Family Foundation poll, adults nationwide are less likely than Californians in our survey to view the law favorably (35% favorable, 47% unfavorable). Most Democrats (61%) have a favorable view of the law, while an overwhelming majority of Republicans (80%) view it unfavorably. Independents are divided (41% favorable, 47% unfavorable). College graduates (50%) are somewhat more likely to have a favorab le opinion than those with some college (35%) or those with a high school education or less (43%). Californians with health insurance are much more likely to view the law favorably than those without health insurance ( 44% to 32% ). “As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it?” All adults Party Have health insurance Dem Rep Ind Yes No Generally favorable 42% 61 % 14 % 41 % 44 % 32 % Generally unfavorable 46 29 80 47 45 54 Don’t know 11 10 5 13 11 14 A majority of Californians (58%) say that the health care reform law has had no direct impact on them or their families. One in five adults (20%) say that they or their families have been directly helped by the law while a similar proportion say that they have been directly hurt (19%). Nationally, in a September Kaiser Family Foundation poll, adults nationwide are slightly more likely to say the law hurt them or their family (56% no direct impact, 14% helped, 27% hurt). In our survey, likely voters hold similar opinions to all adults . Republicans (37%) are far mor e likely than Democrats (13%) or independents (17%) to say that they have been directly hurt by the health care reform law. Those with an annual household income of less than $40,000 (27%) are more likely to say that they have been helped by the law than t hose with higher household incomes (13% $40,000 to $80,000, 15% $80,000 or more). Latinos (26%) and blacks (25%) are the most likely to say they have been helped, followed by Asians (20%) and whites (14%). “So far, would you say the health reform law has d irectly helped you and your family, directly hurt you and your family, or has it not had a direct impact?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Directly helped 20% 29 % 3 % 18 % 18 % Directly hurt 19 13 37 17 24 No direct impact 58 55 56 63 56 Both helped and hurt (volunteered) 1 1 2 – 1 Don’t know 2 2 1 1 1 Of the one in five Californians who say that they were helped by the health care reform law, 31 percent say that it allowed them or someone in their family to get or keep coverage. O ne in four (26%) say that the law made it easier to get health care, and one in five say it lowered health care costs (21%) . Of the one in five who say that they were hurt by the law, more than half say it led to increased costs (55%), while one in five say it made it more difficult to get health care (21%). September 2014 Californians and Their Government 20 PPIC Statewide S urvey IMMIGRATION POLICY A solid majority of Californians (61%) say that immigrants are a benefit to the state because of their hard work and job skills , while three in 10 adults (32%) say that immigrants are a burden because they use public services. These findings are similar to results from our March 2014 survey (65% benefit, 27% burden) and our May 2013 survey (61% benefit, 33% burden) . Likely voters are somewhat more divided, with half (51%) saying that immigrants are a benefit and four in 10 say ing they are a burden (41%). P erceptions differ across political parties, with Democrats (62%) and i ndependents (60%) far more likely than Republicans (33%) to say that immigrants are a benefit to the state. Younger Californians (age 18 to 34 , 74% ) are more likely than older Californians (age 35 to 54, 63%; age 55 and older , 45%) to say that immigrants are a benefit. Latinos (82%) and Asians (77%) are far more likely than blacks (49%) and whites (44%) to view immigrants as a benefit. “On another topic, please indicate which statement comes closest to your own view —even if neither is exactly right: Immigrants today are a benefit to California because of their hard work and job skills or Immigrants today are a burden to California because they use public services.” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Immigrants are a benefit to California 61 % 62 % 33 % 60 % 51 % Immigrants are a burden to California 32 27 61 34 41 Don’t know 7 11 6 6 8 Opinions are divided over priorities for immigration policy: securing the border (41%) or addressing the status of illegal immigrants (46%). These results are similar to those in our September 2013 survey (41% securing the border, 51% addressing the status of illegal immigrants). According to an August CBS News pol l, adults nationwide we re more likely than Californians in our survey to prioritize securing the border (59% securing the border, 31% addressing status of illegal immigrants) . Today, h alf of likely voters (52%) in California say that securing the border sh ould be a higher priority than addressing the status of illegal immigrants (36%). Partisans disagree on this issue: seven in 10 Republicans (69%) prefer secur ing the border, while half of Democrats (50%) prefer addressing the status of illegal immigrants. Independents are divided (43% secure border, 45% address status of illegal immigrants). “Which should be the higher priority now: securing the nation's border, or addressing the status of illegal immigrants currently in the U.S.?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Securing the border 41% 36 % 69 % 43 % 52 % Addressing the status of illegal immigrants 46 50 22 45 36 Both (volunteered) 8 7 7 7 9 Neither (volunteered) 2 2 1 2 1 Don’t know 3 5 2 2 2 Despite divided opinions on the priorities of immigration policy, an overwhelming majority of Californians (82%) favor providing a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants if they mee t certain requirements; 17 percent oppose this idea. These results are similar to those last September (85% favor, 14% oppose). Today, a solid majority who s ay that immigrants are a burden favor a path to citizenship (63%). Similarly, 67 percent of those who prioritize securing the border favor a path to citizenship. September 2014 Californians and Their Government 21 PPIC Statewide S urvey DISASTER PREPAREDNES S On August 24, shortly before our interviews began, the San Francisco Bay Area experienced a 6.0 magnitude earthquake, the strongest in the area in 25 years. In this context, how knowledgeable are Californians about prepar ing for a major disaster? Most Californians say they are very (33%) or somewhat (54%) knowledgeable, while only 12 percent say they are not too (8%) or not at all knowledgeable (4%). Levels of knowledge were similar in March 2006 (29% very, 52% somewhat knowledgeable; 17% not too/not at all knowledgeable) , the last time we asked this question. Half of Californians (52%) report having a disaster kit in their household, while 47 percent say they do not have one. Californians were slightly more likely to report having a disaster kit in 2006 (60%). Today, likely voters are slightly more likely (60%) than all adults (52%) to have one. Los Angeles residents (57%) are the most likely to have a disaster kit, followed by those in the San Francisco Bay Area (53%), Inland Empire (49%), Orange/San Diego (49%), and the C entral Valley (47%). Six in 10 Californians age 35 and older (59%) have a disaster kit, while a similar share of Californians age 18 to 34 (58%) do not have one. Across racial/ethnic groups, whites (55%) are the most likely to report having a disaster kit , followed by blacks (50%), Latinos (49%), and Asians (47%). Homeowners (58%) are more likely than renters (47%) to have a disaster kit . “Does your household have a disaster supplies kit equipped with food, water, and other essential supplies? ” All adults Region Home ownership Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Own Rent Yes 52% 47% 53% 57% 49% 49% 58% 47% No 47 52 47 42 48 51 41 52 Don’t know 1 1 1 1 3 – 1 1 Forty -four percent of Californians have a definite disaster plan in case of an earthquake, flood, or other disaster ; half of Californians (51%) do not have one. In 2006, Californians were as likely to have a disaster plan (47%) as they were to not have one (48%). Today, a major ity of likely voters have a disaster plan (54%). Central Valley residents (38%) are less likely than others to have a disaster plan. Asians (53%) and whites (48%) are more likely than blacks (39%) and Latinos (36%) to have a plan. Californians age 18 to 34 (37%) are less l ikely than older adults (age 35 to 54 , 47%; age 55 and older , 49%) to say their household has a definite disaster plan. The proportion of Californians with a definite disaster plan increases as education levels increase (37% high school or less, 47% some college, 51% college graduate). Homeowners (49%) are more likely than renters (39%) to have a disaster plan. “Does your household have a definite disaster plan in case of an earthquake, flood, or other disaster?” All adults Region Home ownership Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Own Rent Yes 44% 38% 45% 45% 48% 43% 49% 39% No 51 57 47 51 49 52 44 58 Not very definite (volunteered) 4 4 6 3 3 3 7 1 Don’t know 1 1 2 – 1 1 1 1 While t hirty-five percent of Californians report having both a disaster kit and a definite disaster plan, 36 percent say they do not have either one . September 2014 Californians and Their Government 22 PPIC Statewide S urvey DISASTER PREPAREDNES S (CONTINUED) How worried are Californians about a member of their household or themselves experiencing personal injury, property damage, or a major disruption of their routine in a major disaster ? Slightly more than six in 10 Californians say they are either very (28%) or somewhat worried ( 36%). A bout three in 10 Californians are not too (24%) or not at all worried (11%). In March 2006, nearly six in 10 were either very (20%) or somewhat (37%) worried, and four in 10 were not too (30%) or not at all (12%) worried. Today, Los Angeles residents (75%) are the most likely to be at least somewhat worried (67% Inland Empire, 63% San Francisco Bay Area, 57% Central Valley, 56% Orange/San Diego). “How worried are you that you and the members of your household will experience personal injury, property damage or a major disruption of your routine if there is a disaster, such as a major earthquake? Would you say very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not at all worried?” All adults Region Home ownership Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Own Rent Very worried 28% 29% 24% 38% 19% 22% 23% 35% Somewhat worried 36 28 39 37 37 45 38 32 Not too worried 24 26 29 15 33 21 27 21 Not at all worried 11 17 7 10 11 11 11 11 Don’t know – – 1 1 – 1 – – Two in three Californians have at least some confidence (20% a great deal, 46% some) in the federal government in terms of its readiness to respond to disasters in California; three in 10 say they have very little (22%) or none (10%). Confidence in the federal government is much higher today than in 2006 ( 66% to 41%). T oday, trust is higher in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles (70% each) and Orange/San Diego (66%) than in the Central Valley (60%) and the Inland Empire (56%). In terms of state and local government, seven in 10 Californians have at least some confidence (27% a great deal, 46% some) , while one in four have very little (18%) or none (7%). Confidence in state and local government is much higher today than in 2006 (73% to 59% ). Confidence is highest in Los Angeles (76%) followed by the San Francisco Bay Area (73%), Orange/San Diego (71%), Inland Empire (70%), and the Central Valley (68%). “How much confidence do you have in the __________ government in terms of their readiness to respond to disasters, such as a major earthquake in California? ” All adults Region Likely voters Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Federal A great deal 20% 17% 19% 26% 18% 16% 18% Some 46 43 51 44 48 40 45 Very little 22 27 19 20 21 27 24 None 10 13 10 8 9 16 12 Don’t know 2 1 – 2 5 1 1 State and local A great deal 27 24 31 31 26 19 24 Some 46 44 42 45 45 51 50 Very little 18 25 19 15 15 18 17 None 7 6 8 6 6 10 7 Don’t know 3 1 1 3 8 2 1 September 2014 Californians and Their Government 23 REGIONAL MAP September 2014 Californians and Their Government 24 METHODOLOGY The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance from Dean Bonner, associate survey director and project manager for this survey, and survey research associates Renatta DeFever, Lunna Lopes , and Jui Shrestha. The Californians and Their Government series is supported with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. The PPIC Statewide Survey invites input, comments, and suggestions from policy and public opinion experts and from its own advisory committee, but survey methods, questions, and content are determined solely by PPIC’s survey team. Findings in this report are based on a survey of 1,702 California adult residents, including 1,10 5 interviewed on landline telephones and 597 interviewed on cell phones. Interviews took an average of 20 minutes to complete. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights from September 8 –15, 2014. Landline interviews were conducted using a computer -generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible for selection, and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as six t imes to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Cell phone interv iews were conducted using a computer -generated random sample of cell phone numbers. All cell phone numbers with California area codes were eligible for selection, and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as eight times to increase the likelihood of reaching an eligible respondent. Once a cell phone user was reached, it was verified that this person was age 18 or older, a resident of California, and in a safe place to continue the survey (e.g., not driving). Cell phone respondents were offered a small reimbursement to help defray the cost of the call. Cell phone interviews were conducted with adults who have cell phone service only and with those who have both cell phone and landline service in the h ousehold. Live landline and cell phone intervi ews were conducted by Abt SRBI, Inc., in English and Spanish, according to respondents’ preferences. Accent on Languages, Inc., translated new survey questions into Spanish. Abt SRBI uses the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2010– 2012 American Community Survey’s (ACS ) Public Use Microdata Series for California (with regional coding information from the University of Minnesota’s Integrated Public Use Microdata Series for California) to compare certain demographic characteristics of the survey sample— region, age, gender, race/ethnicity, and education —with the characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the ACS figures. To estimate landline and cell phone service in California, Abt SRBI used 2012 state -level estimates rele ased by the National Center for Health Statistics —which used data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the ACS —and 2013 estimates for the West Census Region in the latest NHIS report. The estimates for California were then compared against landline and cell phone service reported in this survey. We also used voter registration data from the California Secretary of State to compare the party registration of registered voters in our sample to party registration statewide. The landline and cell phone samples were then integrated using a frame integration weight, while sample balancing adjusted for differences across regional, age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, telephone service, and party registration groups. September 2014 Californians and Their Government 25 PPIC Statewide Survey The sampling error, taking des ign effects from weighting into consideration, is ±3.6 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total unweighted sample of 1,702 adults. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 3.6 percentage points of what they would be i f all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for unweighted subgroups is larger: for the 1,321 registered voters, the sampling error is ±4.1 percent; for the 916 likely voters, it is ±4.9 percent . For questions 23, 25, 29, and 42 (652 re spondents), asked from September 8– 11, it is ±5.7 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. We present results for fi ve geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tul are, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “ Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, “Inland Empire” refers to Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, and “Orange/San Diego” refers to Orange and San Diego Counties. Residents of other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, likely voters, and primary likely voters, but sample sizes for these less populous areas are not large enough to report separately. In several places, we refer to coastal and inland counties. The “ coastal” region refers to the counties along the California coast from De l Norte County to San Diego County and includes all the San Francisco Bay Area counties. All other counties are included in the “inland” region. We present specific results for non- Hispanic whites and also for Latinos, who account for about a third of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest -growing voter groups. Results for other racial/ethnic groups —such as Asians, blacks, and Native Americans —are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, likely voters, and primary likely voter s, but sample sizes are not large enough for separate analysis. We compare the opinions of those who report they are registered Democrats, registered Republicans, and decline- to-state or independent voters; the results for those who say they are registered to vote in other parties are not large enough for separate analysis. We also analyze the responses of likely voters —so designated by their responses to voter registration survey questions, previous election participation, and current i nterest in politics. The percentages presented in the report tables and in the questionnaire may not add to 100 due to rounding. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey results to those in our earlier surveys and to those in national surveys by CBS Ne ws, CBS/New York Times, CNN/ORC, Kaiser Family Foundation, NBC/Wall Street Journal . A dditional details about our methodology can be found at www.ppic.org/content/other/SurveyMethodology.pdf and are available upon request through surveys@ppic.org . September 2014 Californians and Their Government 26 QUESTIONNAIRE AND RESULTS CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT September 8 –15, 2014 1,702 California Adult Residents: English , Spanish MARGIN OF ERROR ±3. 6% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMP LE PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100 D UE TO ROUNDING 1. First, thinki ng about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today? [code, don’t read ] 33 % jobs, economy 24 water, drought 5 education; schools, teachers 5 immigration, illegal immigration 4 state budget, deficit, taxes 3 crime, gangs, drugs 2 government In general 2 housing costs, availability 2 health care, health reform, Obamacare 2 environment, pollution, global warming 13 other 5 don’t know 2. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California? 51% approve 28 disapprove 21 don’t know 3. Overall , do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job? 37% approve 42 disapprove 20 don’t know 4. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 43% right direction 48 wrong direction 8 don’t know 5. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 44% good times 45 bad times 10 don’t know 6. Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are reg istered to vote in California? 65% yes [ask q6a] 35 no [skip to q7b ] 6a. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or are you registered as a decline -to -state or independent voter? 45% Democrat [ask q 7] 29 Republican [ask q 7a] 4 another party (specify) [ask q8] 22 Independent [skip to q 7b ] 7. Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 54% strong 44 not very strong 2 don’t know September 2014 Californians and Their Government 27 PPIC Statewide Survey [ skip to q8 ] 7a. Would you call yourself a strong Republican o r not a very strong Republican? 49% strong 46 not very strong 4 don’t know [skip to q8] 7b.Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republ ican Party or Democratic Party? 24% Republican Party 44 Democratic Party 24 neither (volunteered) 8 don’t know [questions 8 to 20 reported for likely voters] 8. [likely voters only] If the November 4th election for governor were being held today, would you vote for [ rotate ] (1) Jerry Brown, a Democrat, [ or ] (2) Neel Kashkari a Republican? 54% Jerry Brown, a Democrat 33 Neel Kashkari, a Republican 2 would not vote for governor (volunteered) 11 don’t know 9. [likely voters only] How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2014 governor’s election —very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 12% very closely 40 fairly closely 28 not too closely 19 not at all closely – don’t know 10. [likely voters only] In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for governor on November 4th? 55% satisfied 31 not satisfied 14 don’t know 11. [likely voters only] If the Democrats in the state legislature gained a two -thirds majority as a result of the November 2014 election, do you think that this would be [ rotate] (1) (a good thing) [or] (2) (a b ad thing) for California, or does it make no difference? 34% good thing 37 bad thing 28 no difference 2 don’t know 12. [likely voters only] What is your preference for the outcome of this year's congressional elections: [ rotate ] (1) a Congress controlled by Republicans [or] (2) a Congress controlled by Democrats? 40% controlled by Republicans 50 controlled by Democrats 10 don’t know Next, we have a few questions to ask you about some of the propositions on the November ballot. 13. [likely vot ers only] Proposition 1 is called the “Water Bond. Funding for Water Quality, Supply, Treatment, and Storage Projects.” It authorizes $7.5 billion in general obligation bonds for state water supply infrastructure projects, including surface and groundwater storage, ecosystem and watershed protection and restoration, and drinking water protection. Fiscal i mpact is increased state bond costs averaging $360 million annually over 40 years and local government savings for water -related projects, likely averaging a couple hundred million dollars annually over the next few decades. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 1? 58% yes 29 no 14 don’t know September 2014 Californians and Their Government 28 PPIC Statewide Survey 14. [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 1— is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 51% very important 35 somewhat important 7 not too important 2 not at all important 4 don’t know 15. [likely voters only] Proposition 2 is called the “State Budget. Budget Stabilization Account . Legislative Constitutional Amendment.” It requires annual transfer of state general fund revenues to budget stabilization account and requires half the revenues be used to repay state debts. It limits use of remaining funds to emergencies or budget deficits. Fiscal impact is long -term state savings from faster payment of existing debts and different levels of state budget reserves, depending on the economy and decisions by elected officials as well as smaller local reserves for some school districts. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 2? 43% yes 33 no 24 don’t know 16. [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 2 —is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 30% very important 42 somewhat important 14 not too important 3 not at all important 11 don’t know 17. [likely voters only] Proposition 45 is called the “Healthcare Insurance. Rate Changes. Initiative Statute.” It requires the Insurance Commissioner’s approval before a health insurer can change its rates or anything else affecting the charges associated with health insurance. It provides for public notice, disclosure, and hearing, and subsequent judicial review and exempts employer large group health plans. Fiscal impact is increased state administrative costs to regulate health insurance, likely not exceeding the low millions of dollars annually in most years, funded from fees p aid by health insurance companies. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 45? 48% yes 38 no 14 don’t know 18. [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 45— is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 42% very important 36 somewhat important 13 not too important 4 not at all important 6 don’t know September 2014 Californians and Their Government 29 PPIC Statewide Survey 19. [likely voters only] Proposition 47 is called the “Criminal Sentences. Misdemeanor Penalties. Init iative Statute. ” It requires a misdemeanor sentence instead of a felony for certain drug and property offenses and is inapplicable to persons with prior conviction for serious or violent crime and registered sex offenders. Fiscal impact is state and county criminal justice savings potentially in the high hundreds of millions of dollars annually and state savings spent on school truancy and dropout prevention, mental health and substance abuse treatment, and victim services. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 47? 62% yes 25 no 13 don’t know 20. [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 47— is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 42% very important 38 somewhat important 11 not too important 3 not at all important 6 don’t know 21. Changing topics, do you think the state budget situation in California —that is, the balance between government spending an d revenues —is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today? 55% big problem 32 somewhat of a problem 7 not a problem 6 don’t know 22. In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more — [rotate ] (1) I’d rather pay higher taxes and have a state government tha t provides more services, [or] (2) I’d rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services? 47% higher taxes and more services 46 lower taxes and fewer services 6 don’t know 23. [asked September 8 to 11 ] Overall, do you think the state budget process in California, in terms of both revenues and spending, is in need of major changes, minor changes, or do you think it is fine the way it is? 53% major changes 30 minor changes 10 fine the way it is 7 don’t know 24. When it comes to the tough choices involved in the state budget this year, would you prefer — [rotate ] (1) that the governor and legislature make all of the decisions about spending and taxes ; [or ] (2) that California voters make some of the decisions about spending and taxes at the ballot box? 15 % that the governor and legislature make all of the decisions 81 that California voters make some of the decisions about spending and taxes at the ballot box – other answer (specify) – both (volunteered) 3 don’t know September 2014 Californians and Their Government 30 PPIC Statewide Survey On another topic, California uses the direct initiative process, which enables voters to bypass the legislature and have issues put on the ballot—as state propositions —for voter approval or rejection. 25. [ asked September 8 to 11 ] Generally speaking, would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, or not satisfied with the way the initiative process is working in California today? 11% very satisfied 54 somewhat satisfied 27 not satisfied 9 don’t know 26. Overall, how much would you say that the initiative process in California today is controlled by special interests —a lot, some, or not at all? 55% a lot 33 some 4 not at all 8 don’t know Changing topics, 27. Would you say that the supply of water is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem in your part of California? 65% big problem 22 somewhat of a problem 12 not much of a problem 1 don’t know 28. If your local water district had a bond measure on the ballot to pay for water supply infrastructure projects, would you vote yes or no? 72% yes 19 no 9 don’t know We have a few questions to ask you about how prepared you are personally for earthquake s, floods, or other disasters. 29. [ asked September 8 to 11 ] First, how knowledgeable would you say you are about steps you can take to prepare for a disaster, such as a major earthquake? Would you say you are very knowledgeable, somewhat knowledgeable, n ot too knowledgeable or not at all knowledgeable? 33% very knowledgeable 54 somewhat knowledgeable 8 not too knowledgeable 4 not at all knowledgeable 1 don’t know [rotate questions 30 and 31 ] 30. Does your household have a disaster supplies kit equipped with food, water, and other essential supplies? 52% yes 47 no 1 don’t know 31. Does your household have a definite disaster plan in case of an earthquake, flood, or other disaster? 44% yes 51 no 4 not very definite; kind of have a plan (volunteered) 1 don’t know 32. How worried are you that you and the members of your household will experience personal injury, property damage , or a major disruption of your routine if there is a disaste r, such as a major earthquake? Would you say very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not at all worried? 28% very worried 36 somewhat worried 24 not too worried 11 not at all worried – don’t know September 2014 Californians and Their Government 31 PPIC Statewide Survey [ rotate questions 33 and 34 ] 33. How much confidence do you have in the federal government in terms of their readiness to respond to disasters, such as a major earthquake in California— a great deal, some, very little, or none? 20% a great deal 46 some 22 very little 10 none 2 don’t know 34. How much confidence do you have in the state and local government in terms of their readiness to respond to disasters, such as a major earthquake in California— a great deal, some, very little, or none? 27% a great deal 46 some 18 very little 7 none 3 don’t know On another topic, 35. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president of the United States? 48% approve 48 disapprove 4 don’t know [rotate questions 36 and 37 ] 36.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Dianne Feinstein is h andling her job as U.S. senator? 47% approve 33 disapprove 20 don’t know 37.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barbara Boxer is handling her job as U.S. senator? 41% approve 37 disapprove 21 don’t know 38. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job? 24% approve 66 disapprove 10 don’t know Next, 39. As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a [rotate] (1) [generally favorable ] [or] (2) [generally unfavorable] opinion of it? 42% generally favorable 46 generally unfavorable 11 don’t know 40. So far, would you say the health reform law has [ rotate] (1) [directly helped you and your family ], (2) [di rectl y hurt you and your family ], or has it not had a direct impact? 20% directly helped [ask q40a] 19 directly hurt [skip to q40b ] 58 no direct impact [skip to q41 ] 1 both helped and hurt [ask q40a] (volunteered) 2 don’t know [skip to q41 ] [skip to q41 ] 40a.[of those who say the health reform law helped/both helped and hurt] What would you say is the main way the health reform law has helped you and your family? Has it [ rotate 1 -3, keep 4 always last] (1) allowed someone in your family t o get or keep health coverage, (2) lowered your health care or health insurance costs (3) made it easier for you to get the health care you need [ or] (4) has it helped in some other way? 31% allowed someone in your family to get or keep health coverage 21 lowered your health care or health insurance costs 26 made it easier for you to get the health care you need 17 helped in some other way 5 don’t know September 2014 Californians and Their Government 32 PPIC Statewide Survey 40b. [of those who say the health reform law hurt/both helped and hurt] What would you say is the main way the health reform law has hurt you and your family? Has it [rotate 1 -3, keep 4 always last] (1) caused someone in your f amily to lose their insurance, (2) increased your health care or health insurance costs (3) made it more difficult for you t o get the health ca re you need (4) or has it hurt in some other way? 7% caused someone in your family to lose their insurance 55 increased your health care or health insurance costs 21 made it more difficult for you to get the health care you need 15 hurt in some other way 2 don’t know 41. On another topic, please indicate which statement comes closest to your own view —even if neither is exactly right. [rotate] (1) Immigrants today are a benefit to California because of their hard work and job skills [ or] (2) Immigrants today are a burden to California because they use public services. 61% immigrants are a benefit to California 32 immigrants are a burden to California 7 don’t know 42. [asked September 8 to 11 ] Would you favor or oppose providing a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants in the U.S. if they met certain requirements including a waiting period, paying fines and back taxes, passing criminal background checks, and learning English? 82% favor 17 oppose 2 don’t know 42a. Which should be the higher priority now: [ rotate] (1) securing the nation's border, [or ] (2) addressing the status of illegal immigrants currently in the U.S.? 41% securing the border 46 status of illegal immigrants 8 both (volunteered) 2 neither (volunteered) 3 don’t know 43. Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [ read list, rotate order top to bottom] 11% very liberal 20 somewhat liberal 29 middle -of -the -road 26 somewhat conservative 10 very conservative 4 don’t know 44.Generally speaking, how much inter est would you say you have in politics —a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 19% great deal 37 fair amount 34 only a little 9 none 1 don’t know September 2014 Californians and Their Government 33 PPIC Statewide Survey [d1 to d5: demographic questions] D6. Are you, yourself, now covered by any form of health insurance or health plan or do you not have health insurance at this time? D6a. Which of the following is your main source of health insurance coverage? Is it a plan through your employer, a plan through your spouse’s employer, a plan you purchased y ourself either from an insurance company or the state or federal marketplace, are you covered by Medicare or Medi -C al , or do you get your health insurance from somewhere else? 86% yes, covered by health insurance 30 through employer 13 Medicare 12 Medi -Cal 10 through spouse’s employer 11 self-purchased plan [ask d6b] 4 through parents/mother/ father (volunteered ) 3 somewhere else (specify) 1 other government plan (volunteered ) 13 not insured 1 don’t know/refused D6b. [of those who purchased a plan themselves] Did you purchase your plan directly from an insurance company, from the marketplace known as healthcare.gov or Covered California, or through an insurance agent or broker? ( if agent or broker: Do you know if the plan you purcha sed through a broker was a plan from the state or federal health insurance marketplace known as healthcare.gov or Covered California, or was it a plan purchased directly from an insurance company and not through an exchange or marketplace? ) 52% from an in surance company, either directly or through a broker 40 from healthcare.gov/ Covered California, either directly or through a broker 8 don’t know/refused Summary of D6, D6a, D6b 86 % yes, covered by health insurance 30 through employer 13 Medicare 12 Medi -Cal 10 through spouse’s employer 11 self-purchased plan 6 from an insurance company, either directly or through a broker 4 from healthcare.gov/ Covered California, either directly or through a broker 1 don’t know 4 through parents/mother/ father (volunteered) 3 somewhere else (specify) 1 other government plan (volunteered) 13 not insured 1 don’t know/refused [d7 to d17: demographic questions] September 2014 Californians and Their Government 34 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect Angela Blackwell Founder and CEO PolicyLink Mollyann Brodie Senior Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Bill Lane Center for the American West Stanford University Jon Cohen Vice President of Survey Research SurveyMonkey Joshua J. Dyck Co-Director Center for Public Opinion University of Massachusetts, Lowell Russell Hancock President and CEO Joint Venture Silicon Valley Network Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Robert Lapsley President California Business Roundtable Carol S. Larson President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Monica Lozano Chairman US Hispanic Media, Inc. Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Lisa Pitney Vice President, Government Relations The Walt Disney Company Robert K. Ross, M.D. President and CEO The California Endowment Most Reverend Jaime Soto Bishop of Sacramento Roman Catholic Diocese of Sacramento Carol Whiteside President Emeritus Great Valley Center The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PPIC BOARD OF DIRECTORS Donna Lucas, Chair Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Mark Baldassare President and CEO Public Policy Institute of California Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect María Blanco Vice President, Civic Engagement California Community Foundation Brigitte Bren Attorney Louise Henry Bryson Chair Emerita, Board of Trustees J. Paul Getty Trust Walter B. Hewlett Member, Board of Directors The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Phil Isenberg Vice Chair, Delta Stewardship Council Mas Masumoto Author and F armer Steven A. Merksamer Senior Partner Nielsen, Merksamer, Parrinello, Gross & Leoni , LLP Kim Polese Chairman ClearStreet, Inc. Thomas C. Sutton Retired Chairman and CEO Pacific Life Insurance Company The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research on major economic, social, and political issues. The institute’s goal is to raise public awareness and to give elected representatives and other decision makers a more informed basis for developing policies and programs. The institute’s research focuses on the underlying forces shaping California’s future, cutting across a wide range of public policy concerns, including economic development, education, environment and resources, governance, population, public finance, and social and health policy. PPIC is a public charity . It does not take or support positions on any ballot measures or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. PPIC was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. Mark Baldassare is President and CEO of PPIC. Donna Lucas is Chair of the Board of Directors. Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source and the copyright notice below is included. Copyright © 201 4 Public Policy Institute of California All rights reserved. San Francisco, CA PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, California 94111 phone: 415.291.4400 fax: 415.291.4401 PPIC SACRAMENTO CENT ER Senator Office Building 1121 L Street, Suite 801 Sacramento, California 95814 phone: 916.440.1120 fax: 916.440.1121 www.ppic.org survey@ppic.org" } ["___content":protected]=> string(102) "

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" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(113) "https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2014/s_914mbs/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(8929) ["ID"]=> int(8929) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:42:11" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(4391) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(8) "S 914MBS" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(8) "s_914mbs" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(12) "S_914MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "672628" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(94610) "CONTENTS About the Survey 2 Press Release 3 November 2014 Election 6 State and National Issues 13 Regional Map 24 Methodology25 Questionnaire and Results 2 7 th eir government SEPTEMBER 2014 & P P I C S TAT E W I D E S U R V E Y Californians Mark Baldassare Dean Bonner Renatta DeFever Lunna Lopes Jui Shrestha in collaboration with The James Irvine Foundation ABOUT THE SURVEY The PPIC Statewide Sur vey provides policymakers, the media, and the public with objective, advocacy- free information on the perceptions, opinions, and public policy preferences of California residents. This is the 144th PPIC Statewide Sur vey in a series that was inaugurated in April 1998 and has generated a database of responses from more than 302,000 Californians. This is the 63rd in the Californians and Their Government series. The survey is conducted periodically to examine the social, economic, and political trends that influence public policy preferences and ballot choices. Suppor ted with funding from The James Ir vine Foundation, the series seeks to inform decisionmakers, raise public awareness, and stimulate policy discussions and debate about impor tant state and national issues. This sur vey was conducted two months before a November gener al election in which Californians will vote on a full slate of statewide offices —including governor—as well as six ballot propositions. A mong the propositions are two measures put on the ballot by the legislature (Propositions 1 and 2) to address water and fiscal issues. Californians are enduring one of the most severe droughts in the state’s histor y , which has prompted state and local officials to take action. At the national level, the 2010 health care law remains a contentious issue as the second open-enrollment period approaches . And President Obama recently announced that he would not take executive action on immigration until after the election. The sur vey presents the responses of 1,702 adult residents throughout California, inter viewed in English or Spanish by landline or cell phone. It includes findings on the following topics:  November 2014 election, including preferences in the governor’s race, attention to news about the gubernatorial election, and satisfaction with choices of candidates; attitudes toward Democrats gaining a two- thirds majority in the California Legisla ture and outcome preferences for congressional elections; suppor t for and perceptions of the impor tance of four propositions: Proposition 1 (authorizes $7.5 billion for water quality, supply, treatment, and storage projects), Proposition 2 (creates a state budget stabilization account), Proposition 45 (requires approval for changes to health insurance rates), Proposition 47 (changes sentencing for certain drug and proper ty offenses) .  State and national issues, including approval ratings of Governor Brown and the legislature; views on the direction of the state and future economic outlook; perceptions of the state budget situation, the size of government, and the need for changes to the budget process; attitudes toward the initiative process , including the role of voters in making fiscal policy and the role that special inter ests play; views on the s eriousness of regional water supply problems and suppor t for a hypothetical local water bond; approval ratings of President Obama, Congress, and U.S. senators Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein; attitudes toward health care and immigration reform; and disaster preparedness and perceptions .  Time trends, national comparisons, and the extent to which Californians may differ in their perceptions, attitudes, and preferences regarding state and federal government based on political par ty affiliation, likelihood o f voting, region of residence, race/ethnicity, and other demographics. This repor t may be downloaded free of charge from our website ( www.ppic.org). If you have questions about the sur vey, please contact sur vey@ppic.org . Tr y our PPIC Statewide Sur vey interactive tools online at www.ppic.org/main/sur vAdvancedSearch.asp. September 2014 Californians and Their Government 2 PPIC Statewide Survey Underscoring their concern about water, 72 percent of likely voters say the supply of water is a big problem in their part of California— up 11 points in just two months (61% July). The survey also asked how Californians would vote if their local water district had a bond measure on the ballot to pay for water supply infrastructure projects. A strong majority of likely voters (67%) say they would vote yes. Majorities of registered Democrats (77%), independents (67%), and Republicans (56%) say they would vote yes, as do residents across regions. And, when asked the most important issue facing the state’s residents today, 29 percent of likely voters name water and drought, second only to jobs and the economy (32%). “The state water bond is supported by a 2– 1 margin,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO. “More and more Californians perceive the drought as the top state issue and their region’s water supply as a big problem.” SOLID MAJORITY FAVOR PROPOSITION 47 Proposition 47 would require a m isdemeanor sentence instead of a felony for certain drug and property offenses. It would not apply to offenders with prior convictions for serious or violent crime or to registered sex offenders. A majority of likely voters (62%) would vote yes on this mea sure, 25 percent would vote no, and 13 percent don’t know. Solid majorities of Democrats (69%) and independents (64%) would vote yes. Half of Republicans (50%) would vote yes (32% no, 19% don’t know). Asked about the importance of the vote on this measure, 42 percent say the outcome is very important to them. SUPPORT FOR PROPOSITION 2 FALLS SHORT OF MAJORITY Two years after passing Proposition 30, voters are being asked again to address the state’s budget situation. Proposition 2 would establish a budget s tabilization account, or rainy day fund, that would include a separate reserve for public schools. Among likely voters, 43 percent would vote yes, 33 percent would vote no, and 24 percent don’t know. The results are similar across parties , with less than h alf of partisans saying they would vote yes. Across all demographic groups, Proposition 2 has neither majority support or majority opposition. Just 30 percent of likely voters say the outcome of the vote on this measure is very important to them. At the s ame time, a solid majority of likely voters (62%) say the state’s budget situation is a big problem, and 53 percent say the state budget process is in need of major changes (31 % minor changes). “Support for Proposition 2 is falling short of a majority, ev en though many voters still think the state budget situation is a big problem and believe that California is headed into bad economic times,” Baldassare said. HALF FAVOR PROPOSITIO N 45 Proposition 45 would require the state insurance commissioner’s approva l for changes in health insurance rates or other charges. About half of likely voters (48%) favor this proposition, 38 percent are opposed , and 14 percent are undecided. A majority of Democrats (54%) and half of independents (49%) support Proposition 45. R epublicans are more likely to oppose (47%) than support it (39%). Among likely voters, 42 percent say the outcome of the vote on this measure is very important to them. Asked about their views of the federal health reform law, likely voters remain divided : 45 percent view it favorably and 49 percent unfavorably. Among all adults, Californians with health insurance are much more likely to have a favorable opinion of the law than those without (44% to 32%). The survey also asked about the effect of the law. A majority of likely voters (5 6 %) say it has had no direct impact on them or their families, while 18 percent say it has directly helped them or their families and 24 percent say it has hurt them. Among all adults, Californians with household incomes of less than $40,000 (27%) are more likely to say the law has helped them than those with higher September 2014 Californians and Their Government 4 PPIC Statewide Survey incomes (13% $40,000 to $80,000, 15% $80,000 or more). Latinos (26%) and blacks (25%) are the most likely to say the law has helped them, followed by Asians (20%) and whites (14%). CALIFORNIANS FEELING BETTER A BOUT THEIR STATE Californians are feeling more positive about the state than they were when they cast their ballots two years ago. Today, 43 percent of likel y voters say things in California are generally going in the right direction (29% September 2012), although 52 percent say it is going in the wrong direction. Asked about economic conditions, 44 percent of likely voters say the state will have good times f inancially in the next year (29% September 2012), while 46 percent expect bad times. Baldassare noted: “The mood of the California electorate is much more upbeat today than two years ago, and this is a trend that works in favor of the political status quo and incumbents this fall.” As the legislative session ended with a brighter state budget picture, 32 percent of likely voters say they approve of the way the state legislature is doing its job. Just 22 percent expressed th is view in September 2012. The legislature’s job approval rating has changed little this year (33% January) despite recent political scandals. Because of the legal problems of some members, legislative Democrats lost the supermajority they gained in 2012. Asked how they feel about the pos sibility that Democrats would regain a supermajority, likely voters are split: 34 percent say it would be a good thing, 37 percent say it would be a bad thing, and 28 percent say it would make no difference. OBAMA’S APPROVAL RAT ING AT RECORD LOW President Obama’s job approval rating among California likely voters matches the record -low 46 percent he got in January. Not surprisingly, there is a wide partisan divide, with 72 percent of registered Democrats approving and 82 percent of Republicans disapproving of the president’s job performance. Independents are more likely to disapprove (55%) than approve (39%). Congress continues to get a low rating, with just 16 percent of likely voters approving of its job performance. These results are similar to those i n recent surveys (14% May, 15% July). How would California’s likely voter s like to see this year’s congressional elections play out? Half (50%) prefer that Democrats control Congress, while 40 percent prefer that Republicans be in control (10% don’t know) . Asked to evaluate the state’s two Democratic senators, 55 percent of likely voters approve of the job Dianne Feinstein is doing, similar to last September (51%). Barbara Boxer’s rating is 10 points lower at 45 percent, also si milar to last September (48%) . MORE KEY FINDINGS  Happy with the initiative process —page 17 Most Californians (65%) and likely voters (66%) are at least somewhat satisfied with the way the initiative process is working. Large majorities (81% adults, 78% likely voters) say the state’s voters should make some of the decisions involved in the state budget —as they are in voting on Propositions 1 and 2 this fall .  Most see immigrants as a benefit rather than burden— page 21 A solid majority of Californians (61%) and half of likely voters (51%) say immigrants benefit the state. Californians are divided on whether securing the border or addressing the status of ill egal immigrants should be a higher priority .  Ready for a disaster? Half have an emergency kit —pag es 22, 23 In the wake of a 6.0 magnitude earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area , 64 percent of Californians say they are at least somewhat worried about the impact of a major disaster on their households . Half of Californians (52%) say they have a disaster supply kit in their households. September 2014 Californians and Their Government 5 NOVEMBER 2014 ELECTION KEY FINDINGS  In the governor’s race, Jerry Brown leads Neel Kas hkari among likely voters by a 21- point margin ( 54% to 3 3%). Fifty -five percent of likely voters are satisfied with their choice of candidates , with Democrats (7 1%) far mo re satisfied than Republicans (38 %). ( page 7 )  Likely voters are divided about whether it would be a good or bad thing if Democrats gain a two -thirds majority in the state legislature. Fifty percent of likely voters say that a Congress controlled by Democrats is their preferred outcome of congressional elections. (page 8 )  Fifty -eight percent of likely voters say they will vote in favor of Proposition 1, which authorizes $7.5 billion for water quality, supply, treatment, and storage projects. Half view the outcome of the proposition as very important . (page 9)  On Proposition 2, which would establish a budget stabilization account, 43 percent of likely voters would vote yes, 3 3 percent wo uld vote no, and 2 4 percent are undecided. Just three in 10 view the outcome of Proposition 2 as very important. ( page 10)  About half of likely voters (48%) would vote yes on Proposition 45, which requires approval of the insurance commi ssioner for changes to health insurance rates , and 38 percent would vote no. Four in 10 likely voters see the outcome of this proposition as very important. (page 11 )  On Proposition 47, which changes sentencing for certain drug and property offenses, 62 percent would vote yes and 2 5 percent would vote no. Forty -two percent of likely voters view the outcome of this proposition as very important. (page 12 ) 48 62 38 25 1413 0 20 40 60 80 Prop 45: HealthcareInsurance, RateChanges Prop 47: CriminalSentences,Misdemeanor Penalties Percent likely voters Yes No Don't know Vote on Propositions 45 and 47 58 43 2933 14 24 0 20 40 60 80 Prop 1: Water Bond,Funding for WaterQuality, Supply,Treatment, andStorage Projects Prop 2: State Budget,Budget StabilizationAccount Percent likely voters Yes No Don't know Vote on Propositions 1 and 2 5254 3333 42 1111 0 20 40 60 80 JulySeptember Percent likely voters Jerry Brown Neel Kashkari Would not vote (volunteered) Don't know 2014 Gubernatorial Election September 2014 Californians and Their Government 6 PPIC Statewide S urvey GUBERNATORIAL ELECTI ON With the gubernatorial election less than two months away, just half of likely voters are very (12%) or fairly closely (40%) following news about the candidates. Attention to news today is far lower than it was in September 2010 (30% very, 51% fairly). In September 2006, the last election involving an incumbent governor , attention to news was also much higher (17% very, 57% fairly) than it is today. In an election where few are paying very close attention to candidates, incumbent Democrat Jerry Brown leads Republican challenger Neel Kashkari by a 21 -point margin (54% to 33%) among likely voters. His lead today is similar to the 19 -point margin he had in July (52% to 33%). Brown enjoys the support of 86 percent of Democrats, while Kashkari has the support of 64 percent of Republicans . Independents prefer Brown to Kashkari by 14 points (45% to 31%) with 19 percent unsure . Neel Kashkari has majority support among likely voters in Orange/San Diego (51%), while Jerry Brown has the support of at least half of voters in the Central Valley (50%), Los Angeles (59%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (70%). Likely voters in the Inland Empire are divided (48% Brown, 44% Kashkari). Women (59%) are more likely than men (49%) and Latinos (74%) are far more likely than whites (44%) to support Brown. “If the November 4th election for governor were being held today, would you vote for Jerry Brown, a Democrat, or Neel Kashkari, a Republican?” Likely voters only Jerry Brown, a Democrat Neel Kashkari, a Republican Would not vote for governor (volunteered) Don’t know All likely voters 54% 33% 2% 11% Party Democrat s 86 8 2 5 Republican s 19 64 1 15 Independent s 45 31 5 19 Region Central Valley 50 37 4 9 San Francisco Bay Area 70 17 2 10 Los Angeles 59 29 3 9 Orange/San Diego 32 51 1 16 Inland Empire 48 44 – 8 Gender Men 49 38 3 10 Women 59 28 2 12 Race/E thnicity * Latino s 74 19 3 5 White s 44 41 3 12 *Sample sizes for Asian and black likely voters are too small for separate analysis Fifty-five percent of likely voters are satisfied with their choice of candidates for governor; 31 percent are not satisfied. By comparison, in September 2010 fewer than half were satisfied (45% satisfied, 49% not satisfied). Today, Democrats (71%) and Brown supporters (74%) are far more likely than Republicans (38%) and Kashkari supporters (39%) to be satisfied. Half of independents are satisfied (49%). “In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for governor on November 4th?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Gubernatorial vote choice Dem Rep Ind Jerry Brown Neel Kashkari Satisfied 55% 71% 38% 49% 74% 39% Not satisfied 31 19 43 32 15 50 Don’t know 14 10 19 19 11 11 September 2014 Californians and Their Government 7 PPIC Statewide S urvey OUTCOME OF LEGISLATI VE AND CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS In the wake of the 2012 electio n, Democrats in the California L egislature gained a supermajority, but the legal troubles of individual legislators erased this two -thirds majority about a year later. A s voters go to the polls in 2014, only 34 percent of likely voters view a potential Democratic supermajority as a good thing, while 37 percent view it as a bad thing and 28 percent say it would make no difference. Likely voters were slightly more optimisti c about the Democratic supermajority in January 2013 , when 41 percent said it was a good thing that Democrats had a two -thirds majority, 36 percent said it was a bad t hing, and 22 percent said it made no difference. Partisan likely voters differ greatly in their opinions of a Democratic supermajority: 62 percent of Democrats say it would be a good thing , while 73 percent of Republicans say bad thing. Independent likely voters are divided (37% makes no difference, 37% bad thing, 23% good thing ). A plurality of likely voters in the Central Valley (41%) and Orange/San Diego (47%) say bad thing, while a plurality of voters in the San Francisco Bay Area (42%) say good thing. Voters in Los Angeles (36% good thing, 30% bad thing, and 33% no difference) and the Inland Empire (35% good thing, 38% bad thing, and 23% no difference) are more divided. Nearly half of Latinos (48%) say good thing, while nearly half of whites (49%) say bad thing. “If the Democrats in the state legislature gained a two- thirds majority as a result of the November 2014 election, do you think that this would be a good thing or a bad thing for California, or does it make no difference?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Race/E thnicity Dem Rep Ind Latino White Good thing 34% 62% 6% 23% 48% 28% Bad thing 37 9 73 37 13 49 No difference 28 28 20 37 37 22 Don’t know 2 2 1 3 2 2 Half of likely voters (50%) prefer that this year’s congressional elections lead to a Congress controlled by Democrats; four in 10 say they prefer a Congress controlled by Republicans. Opinions were similar in September 2012 (52% Democratic control, 38% Republican control), but voters were more divided in October 2010 (45% Democratic control, 43% Republican control). In the lead-up to the 2006 election 55 percent of likely voters preferred Democratic control (37% Republican control). Today, m ost Democrat ic (87%) and Republican (81%) likely voters prefer that their party control Congress ; independents are evenly divided (41% Democratic control, 41% Republican control). Slightly more than half of voters in the Inland Empire (53%) and Orange/San Diego (54%) prefer Republican control, while majorities of voters in Los Angeles (58%) and the S an Francisco Bay Area (65%) prefer Democratic control. Likely voters in the Central Valley are divided (44% Democratic control, 44% Republican control). Two in three Latinos (68%) prefer Democratic control, while whites are divided (49% Democratic control, 40% Republican control). Nationally, in a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, registered voters were divided (43% Democratic control, 45% Republican control). “What is your preference for the outcome of this year's congressional elections: a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Race/ Ethnicity Dem Rep Ind Latino White Controlled by Republicans 40% 8% 81% 41% 23% 49% Controlled by Democrats 50 87 9 41 68 40 Don’t know 10 5 10 18 9 11 September 2014 Californians and Their Government 8 PPIC Statewide S urvey PROPOSITION 1 In the midst of a severe drought , California voters will vote on Proposition 1, a $7.5 billion bond to fund water quality, supply, treatment, and storage projects. The history of Proposition 1 dates back to fall 2009 , when the California L egislature passed the Safe, Clean, and Reliable Dr inking Water Supply Act of 2010 with a price tag of $11 .1 billion. The measure was removed from the ballot in both 2010 and 2012, and in 2014 it was scaled down and placed on the ballot as Proposition 1. When read the ballot title and label , 58 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 29 percent would vote no, and 14 percent are undecided. Proposition 1 has majority support among Democrats (68%) and independents (59%). Republican voters are divided (44% yes, 36% no) but one in five are undecided. W hile there is majority support across regions, support is highest in the San Francisco Bay Area (64%) and the Inland Empire (62%), followed by voters in the Central Valley (55%), Los Angeles (55%), and Orange/San Diego (51%). There is also majority support across all demographic groups. Among those who view the supply of water as a big problem, 61 percent support Proposition 1; among those who say the water supply is not much of a problem, only 32 percent would vote yes. “Proposition 1 is called the ‘Water Bond. Funding for Water Quality, Supply, Treatment, and Storage Projects.’ If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on Proposition 1?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 58% 29% 14% Party Democrat s 68 22 11 Republican s 44 36 20 Independent s 59 29 12 Region Central Valley 55 31 14 San Francisco Bay Area 64 25 11 Los Angeles 55 31 14 Orange/San Diego 51 27 22 Inland Empire 62 23 14 Income Under $40,000 65 22 13 $40,000 to under $80,000 51 30 19 $80,000 or more 59 30 10 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 28. Half of likely voters say the outcome of Proposition 1 is very important to them. This perception varies across parties and is higher among Latinos (62%) and women (55%) than whites (48%) and men (48%). The share saying it is very important is far higher a mong supporters than opponents of Proposition 1. “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 1?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Vote on Proposition 1 Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 51% 56% 49% 40% 60% 36% Somewhat important 35 29 38 47 35 39 Not too important 7 10 4 5 4 17 Not at all important 2 2 4 2 1 7 Don’t know 4 3 5 5 – 1 September 2014 Californians and Their Government 9 PPIC Statewide S urvey PROPOSITION 2 Two years after passing Proposition 30, voters will go to the polls to address the state’s budget situation again. This time it is to establish a budget stabilization account , or rainy day fund, that would include a separate reserve for public schools. Proposition 2 is a replacement for another amendment that was originally slated to be on the 2012 ballot . When read the ballot title and label , 43 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 33 percent would vote no, and 24 percent are undecided. The results are similar across parties, with fewer than half of partisans saying they would vote yes. About half of likely voters in the Inland Empire (50%), the Central Valley (49%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (48%) would vote yes, while those in Los Angeles and Orange/San Diego are more divided. Women (39%) are less likely than men (47%) to express support and a re twice as likely to be undecided (32% to 16%). Latinos are divided on Proposition 2 (43% yes, 44% no); whites are more likely to express support than opposition (41% yes, 32% no) but three in 10 are undecided. Importantly, Proposition 2 does not have majority support or majority opposition across demographic groups. “Proposition 2 is called the ‘State Budget. Budget Stabilization Account Legislative Constitutional Amendment.’ If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on Proposition 2?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 43% 33% 24% Party Democrat s 46 31 23 Republican s 39 34 26 Independent s 43 33 24 Region Central Valley 49 30 21 San Francisco Bay Area 48 23 29 Los Angeles 37 38 25 Orange/San Diego 41 33 26 Inland Empire 50 38 12 Household income Under $40,000 46 37 17 $40,000 to under $80,000 45 32 23 $80,000 or more 40 32 28 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 29. Three in 10 likely voters say the outcome of Proposition 2 is very important to them, and this perception is similar across parties (29% Democrats, 31% Republicans, 35% independents) . About one in three of both supporters and opponents of the proposition view the outcome as very important , but opponents are more l ikely than supporters to say the outcome is not too or not at all important. “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 2?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Vote on Proposition 2 Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 30% 29% 31% 35% 34% 31% Somewhat important 42 43 38 39 55 37 Not too important 14 17 9 16 11 22 Not at all important 3 1 5 3 – 7 Don’t know 11 10 16 7 – 3 September 2014 Californians and Their Government 10 PPIC Statewide S urvey PROPOSITION 45 Proposition 45 would require the insurance c ommissioner’s approval for changes to charges associated with health insurance. When read the ballot title and label, 48 percent of likely voters would vote yes, 38 percent would vote no, and 14 percent are unsure. A majority of Democrats (54%) and half of independents (49%) support Proposition 45. Republicans are more likely to oppose (47%) than support (39%) it. At least half of likely voters in the Inland Empire (55%), the San Francisco Bay Area (53%), and Los Angeles (50%) support Proposition 45 . Four in 10 residents in Orange/San Diego (41%) and the Central Valley (42%) express support. A majority of Latino likely voters (56%) would vote yes , while fewer white likely voters (45%) would do so. Support for Proposition 45 is much higher among likely voter s earning under $40,000 (58%) than those with higher incomes (41% $40,000 to less than $80,000, 46% $80,000 or more). A solid majority of likely voters who say the 2010 health reform law helped them would vote yes (67%) , as would 47 percent of those who say the law has had no direct impact on them; half of those who say the law hurt them would vote no (49%). “Proposition 45 is called the ‘Healthcare Insurance. Rate Changes. Initiative Statute.’ If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on Pro position 45?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 48% 38% 14% Party Democrat s 54 30 15 Republican s 39 47 14 Independent s 49 38 13 Region Central Valley 42 42 16 San Francisco Bay Area 53 33 15 Los Angeles 50 35 15 Orange/San Diego 41 47 12 Inland Empire 55 35 10 Impact of 2010 health reform law Helped 67 20 13 Hurt 39 49 12 No direct impact 47 38 15 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 29. Four in 10 likely voters (42%) say the outcome is very important to them and this perception is similar across parties ( 43% Republicans, 42% Democrats, 37% independents). Among those who would vote yes, half say the outcome is very important (51%). By comparison, 37 percent of those who would vote no think the outcome of the vote on Proposition 45 is very important. “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 45?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Vote on Proposition 45 Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 42% 42% 43% 37% 51% 37% Somewhat important 36 39 32 38 41 34 Not too important 13 11 15 15 7 21 Not at all important 4 2 5 6 – 7 Don’t know 6 6 6 5 – – September 2014 Californians and Their Government 11 PPIC Statewide S urvey PROPOSITION 47 Proposition 47 requires a misdemeanor sentence instead of a felony for certain drug and property offenses but is inapplicable to registered sex offenders and persons with a prior conviction for serious or violent crime s. When read the ballot title and labe l, 62 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 25 percent would vote no, and 13 percent are unsure. Solid majorities of Democrats (69%) and independents (64%) say they would vote yes, as would half of Republicans (50%, 32% say no). Strong majoriti es of liberals (79%) and moderates (73%) would vote yes; conservatives are divided (43% vote yes, 43% vote no). Across regions, support is highest in the Inland Empire (74%), followed by the San Francisco Bay Area (65%), Los Angeles (59%), Central Valley ( 57%), and Orange/San Diego (56%). Support is higher among likely voters earning annual incomes less than $40,000 (69%) than those with higher incomes (58% $40,000 or more). More than six in 10 Latinos (67%) , whites (62%), men (61%) , and women (63%) would v ote yes on Proposition 47. “Proposition 47 is called the ‘Criminal Sentences. Misdemeanor Penalties. Initiative Statute.’ If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on Proposition 47?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 62% 25% 13% Party Democrat s 69 22 10 Republican s 50 32 19 Independent s 64 25 12 Region Central Valley 57 31 12 San Francisco Bay Area 65 21 14 Los Angeles 59 29 12 Orange/San Diego 56 25 19 Inland Empire 74 16 10 Income Under $40,000 69 22 9 $40,000 to under $80,000 58 30 11 $80,000 or more 58 26 16 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 30. Regarding the importance of the outcome of the vote on Proposition 47, four in 10 likely voters (42%) say the outcome is very important. This perception varies slightly across parties (45% Democrats, 40% independents, 37% Republicans). Those who would vote yes (49%) are more likely than those who would vote no (38%) to say the outcome is very important. “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 47?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Vote on Proposition 47 Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 42% 45% 37% 40% 49% 38% Somewhat important 38 35 44 40 44 33 Not too important 11 11 9 9 6 23 Not at all important 3 2 2 6 1 4 Don’t know 6 7 8 4 – 2 September 2014 Californians and Their Government 12 STATE AND NATIONAL ISSUES KEY FINDINGS  With less than two months before the general election, 51 percent of Californians approve of Governor Brown’s job performance; 37 percent approve of the legislature. (page 14)  Slightly more than four in 10 Californians say the state is headed in the right direction and expect good times economically. (page 15)  Fifty -five percent of residents say the state budget situation is a big problem ; 5 3 percent of likely voters prefer lower taxes and smaller government . (page 16)  An overwhelming majority of Californians would prefer that voter s— rather than elected officials —make some of the decisions about spending and taxes. Nine in 10 say the initiati ve process in California is controlled by special interests . (page 17 )  Sixty -five percent of Californians say the water supply in their part of California is a big problem ; 6 7 percent of likely voters would vote yes on a local bond measure for water infra structure projects. ( page 18)  A record -low 48 percent approve of President Obama’s job performance , while 24 percent approve of Congress. (page 19 )  Californians continue to be divided over the 2010 health reform law but most say it has not had a direct impact on them. (page 20 )  Six in 10 view immigrants as a benefit to the state . Californians are divided when it comes to immigration policy priorities . (page 21 )  Two in three Californians are worried about the impact of a disaster on their household; one in four have a great deal of confiden ce in the federal government’s response to a disaster. ( pages 22, 23 ) 41 4851 30 3837 0 20 40 60 80 Sep 2012Sep 2013Sep 2014 Percent all adults Governor Brown California Legislature Approval Ratings of State Elected Officials 6055 48 272824 0 20 40 60 80 Sep 2012Sep 2013Sep 2014 Percent all adults President Obama U.S. Congress Approval Ratings of FederalElected Officials 41 59 46 31 85 CaliforniansAdults nationwide*0 20 40 60 80 Securing the border Status of illegal immigrants Both (volunteered) Priorities forImmigration Policy Percent all adults *CBS News, August 2014 September 2014 Californians and Their Government 13 PPIC Statewide S urvey APPROVAL OF STATE EL ECTED OFFICIALS With less than two months before the November election, 51 percent of adults and 55 percent of likely voters approve of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job. By comparison, 41 percent of adults and 42 percent of likely voters approved of his job performance in our September 2012 poll. The governor’s approval ratings had reached a record -high 58 percent among adults and 60 percent among likely voters in our January 2014 poll. Today, the governor’s approval rating is far higher among Democrats (72%) than among indepe ndents (49%) or Republicans (29%). His approval rating is higher in the San Francisco Bay Area (62%) and Los Angeles (51%) than in other regions (48% Orange/San Diego, 46% Central Valley, 41% Inland Empire) . Approval is similar among men (49%) and women (53%), and pluralities across age, education, income, and racial/ethnic groups approve of his job performance. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California?” Approve Disapprove Don’t know All adults 51% 28 % 21 % Likely voters 55 36 9 Party Democrats 72 13 15 Republicans 29 56 15 Independents 49 31 20 Region Central Valley 46 34 20 San Francisco Bay Area 62 18 20 Los Angeles 51 28 20 Orange/San Diego 48 30 23 Inland Empire 41 35 24 With the 2013– 14 legislative session ending this summer with a brighter state budget picture than in recent years, 37 percent of California adults and 32 percent of likely voters approve of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job. By comparison, 30 percent of adults and 22 percent of likely voters approved of its job performance in our September 2012 poll. The legislature’s approval ratings today have changed little since January (42% adu lts, 33% likely voters), even in the wake of recent political scandals. Today, 44 percent of Democrats express approval, compared to 33 percent of independents and 18 percent of Republicans. San Francisco Bay Area (43%) and Los Angeles residents (42%) are the most likely to approve, followed by residents in Orange/San Diego (39%), the Central Valley (32%), and the Inland Empire (25%). Approval is similar among men (39%) and women (36%). Whites (31%) and blacks (26%) express lower approval than Asians (48%) and Latinos (45%). Sixty percent of those who approve of Governor Brown’s job performance also approve of the legislature’s job performance. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Approve 37% 44 % 18 % 33 % 32 % Disapprove 42 32 69 49 54 Don’t know 20 23 13 18 14 September 2014 Californians and Their Government 14 PPIC Statewide S urvey OVERALL MOOD Californians say that the most important issue in the state today is jobs and the economy (33%), followed by water and the drought (24%). A year ago, 46 percent named jobs and the economy and just 2 percent named water and the drought. Other top issues mentioned today include education (5%), immigration (5%), the state b udget and taxes (4%), and crime, gangs, and drugs (3%). Water and the drought is the most important issue in the Central Valley (39%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (37%) , but is noted much less often in Orange/San Diego (14%), Los Angeles (14%), an d the Inland Empire (13%). An equal proportion of adults and likely voters (43% each) say things in California are generally going in the right direction. Two years ago, 33 percent of adults and 29 percent of likely voters held this view . In our January 20 14 poll, 53 percent of adults and 47 percent of likely voters said that things were going in the right direction. Today, 60 percent of Democrats say that things are going in the right direction, but fewer independents (40%) and Republicans (20%) agree. San Francisco Bay Area residents (60%) are the most likely to say that things are going in the right direction, followed by those living in Los Angeles (49%) , Orange/San Diego (36%), the Central Valley (35%), and the Inland Empire (28%). Men (48%) are somewhat more likely than women (39%) to say that things are going in the right direction. Sixty- six percent of those who approve of Governor Brown say that things in California are generally going in the right direction. “Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Right direction 43% 60 % 20 % 40 % 43 % Wrong direction 48 30 73 55 52 Don’t know 8 10 7 5 6 A similar share of adults and likely voters (44%) say the state will have good times financially in the next 12 months. Two years ago, 33 percent of adults and 29 percent of likely voters said this . In our January 2014 poll, 49 percent of adults and 46 percent of likely vot ers expected good economic times. Today, about half of San Francisco Bay Area (52%) and Orange/San Diego (49%) residents expect good economic times , while fewer hold this view in the Central Valley (45%), Los Angeles (41%), and the Inland Empire (34%). Democrats (53%) express more optimism about the state’s future economic conditions than independents (44%) and Republicans (30%) do . The expectation of good economic times in California is much higher among men (53%) than women (36%). About half of college graduates and those in households earning $80,000 or more expect good economic times ; among those with less education and lower incomes , fewer hold this view . Fifty-six percent of those who approve of Governor Brown expect goo d times financially during the next year. “Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?” All adults Region Likely voters Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Good times 44% 45 % 52% 41% 49% 34% 44 % Bad times 45 47 38 45 43 55 46 Don’t know 10 8 10 13 8 11 10 September 2014 Californians and Their Government 15 PPIC Statewide S urvey STATE BUDGET SITUATI ON A majority of Californians (55%) say that the state budget situation in California is a big problem today (32 % say somewhat of a problem) —even though the economy and fiscal situation have steadily improved in recent years. Likely voters hold similar views (62% big problem, 29% somewhat of a problem). In our September 2012 survey , 69 percent of adults and 83 percent of likely voters said that the state budget situation was a big problem. Today, R epublicans (80%) are much more likely than independents (62%) or Democrats (46%) to say the budget is a big problem. San Francisco Bay Area residents (42%) are the least likely to think that it is a big problem , while majorities of residents in hold this view ( 57% Central Valley, 57% Orange/San Diego, 59% Los Angeles, 62% Inland Empire). Among those who expect good times financially, 40 percent say the state budget situation is a big problem, while 72 percent of those who expect bad times hold this view . “Do you think the state budget situation in California—that is, the balance between government spending and revenues—is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Big problem 55% 46 % 80% 62% 62 % Somewhat of a problem 32 40 18 30 29 Not a problem 7 11 1 6 6 Don’t know 6 3 1 3 2 Californians not only perceive the state’s budget situation as a big problem, but 53 percent also say the state budget process is in need of major changes . Just 30 percent say it is in need of minor changes. And only 10 percent say the state budget process is fine the way it is. In six PPIC Statewide Surveys conducted in 2008 and 2009, the share of adults who said that major changes were needed ranged between 65 and 80 percent . Today, there are strong partisan differences over this issue , with 82 percent of Republicans, 53 percent of independents, and 41 percent of Democrats saying that major changes in the state budget process are needed. Californians are evenly divided when it comes to the size of state gove rnment, with 47 percent saying that they would rather pay higher taxes and have more services and 46 percent preferring to pay lower taxes and have fewer services. In past surveys, Californians have tended to prefer higher taxes and more services or be div ided on their preferred size of government . Today, a majority of likely voters (53%) prefer lower taxes and fewer services, while 41 percent favor higher taxes and more services. Seventy -five percent of Republicans prefer lower taxes and fewer services, 59 percent of Democrats prefer higher taxes and more services, and independents are divided. The preference for higher taxes and more services declines as income increases. Renters, those with a high school education or less, and younger Californians are more likely than others to prefer higher taxes and more services . “In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more—I’d rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, or I’d rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Higher taxes, more services 47% 59 % 19 % 40 % 41 % Lower taxes, fewer services 46 35 75 54 53 Don’t know 6 6 5 5 6 September 2014 Californians and Their Government 16 PPIC Statewide S urvey INITIATIVE PROCESS Who should make the tough choices involved in the state budget? This November, Californians are voting on a state water bond (Proposition 1) and a rainy day fund (Proposition 2) , both placed on the ballot by the governor and legislature . Californians have a strong preference for voters weighing in on issues involving spending and taxes. Eighty-one percent of adults say that California voters should make some of the se decisions at the ballot box; only 15 percent say the governor and legislature should make all of the decisions. Likely voters hold similar views (78% voters, 18% governor and legislature). In five surveys since May 2011, more than three in four adults have said that they prefer voters make some fiscal decisions. To day, strong majorities across political parties hold this view, as do more than seven in 10 adults across age, income, racial/ethnic, and regional groups. “When it comes to the tough choices involved in the state budget this year, would you prefer that t he governor and legislature make all of the decisions about spending and taxes, or that California voters make some of the decisions about spending and taxes at the ballot box?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Governor and legislature 15% 25 % 10 % 12 % 18 % California voters 81 72 85 86 78 Other/Both (volunteered) – – 2 – 1 Don’t know 3 2 3 2 2 Sixty -five percent of Californians are satisfied (11% very, 54% somewhat) with the way the initiative process is working today ; 27 percent are not satisfied. Likely voters have similar opinions (12% very, 54% somewhat, 31% not satisfied). Findings were similar among all adults last March (9% very, 56% somewhat, 29% not satisfied), and at least 55 percent of Californians have been satisfied with the initiative process since we began asking this question in October 2000. Today, strong majorities of Republicans (63%), Democrats (68%), and independents (72%) express satisfaction. Yet few say they are “very satisfied” with the initiativ e process (8% Republicans , 13% Democrat s, 14% independent s). While residents are generally happy with the initiative process, the influence of special interests has been a source of past complaints. Today, most Californians say that the initiative process is controlled a lot (55%) or some (33%) by special interests. Likely voters (65%) are more likely than all adults to say special interests have a lot of control. Majorities of Democrats (63%), Republicans (68%), and independents (58%) say special interests have a lot of control. This perception rises as age and income increase; half or more across regions hold this view. Majorities have consistently said the initiative process is controlled a lot by special interests (52% Jan uary 2001, 56% Sep tember 2005, 5 4% September 2011, 56% September 2012, 55% May 2013, 55% today). “Overall, how much would you say that the initiative process in California today is controlled by special interests?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind A lot 55% 63 % 68 % 58 % 65 % Some 33 28 26 34 27 Not at all 4 4 3 3 5 Don’t know 8 5 4 4 4 September 2014 Californians and Their Government 17 PPIC Statewide Survey September 2014 Californians and Their Government 18 WATER POLICY Second only to jobs and the economy, water and the drought is considered to be the most important issue facing the state; about one quarter of adults in California (24%) hold this view. In addition, strong majorities of adults (65%) consider the supply of water in their part of California a big problem. As drought conditions have worsened in the past six months, there has been a 10 point increase since earlier this year in the share of residents who consider water supply a big problem ( 55% March, 59% May, 54% July, 65% today). Today, likely voters (72%) are slightly more likely than all adults to consider water supply a big problem, up from July when 61 percent considered it a big problem. Residents in the Central Valley (74%), California’s most important agricultural region, are the most likely to consider water supply a big problem, followed by residents in Orange/San Diego (68%), the Inland Empire (67%), the San Francisco Bay Area (64%), and Los Angeles (60%). Those living in Ca lifornia’s inland regions (71%) are slightly more likely than coastal residents (63%) to say water supply is a big probl em. Across ethnic/racial groups, whites (70%) are more likely to say it is a big problem than Latinos ( 63%), blacks (58%), or Asians (57%). The view that this is a big problem rises sharply as age increases. “Would you say that the supply of water is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem in your part of Californ ia?” All adults Region Inland/Coastal Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Big problem 65% 74% 64% 60% 68% 67% 71% 63% Somewhat of a problem 22 18 22 24 20 26 21 22 Not much of a problem 12 8 13 15 12 7 8 14 Don’t know 1 – 1 1 – – – 1   As Californians get ready to decide on Proposition 1 in the November election, what do they think about voting on a local water district bond measure to pay for water supply infrastructure projects? Strong majorities of adults (72%) and likely voters (67%) say they would vo te yes; fewer than one in four would vote no (19% adults, 23% likely voters). San Francisco Bay Area residents (77%) are the most likely to say they would vote yes on this issue, followed by residents in the Central Valley and Los Angeles (72% each), Orange/San Diego (70%), and the Inland Empi re (69%). About seven in 10 inland (70%) and coastal (72%) residents say they would vote yes on a local water bond measure. Across parties, Democrats (77%) are more likely than independents (67%) and Republicans (56%) to vote yes. Support declines as age increases. Eighty-seven percent of residents who say they would vote yes on Proposition 1 on the November ballot say they would also vote yes on a local water bond. “If your local water district had a bond measure on the ballot to pay for water supply infrastructure projects, would you vote yes or no?” All adults Region Likely voters Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Yes 72% 72% 77% 72% 70% 69% 67% No 19 19 17 19 15 24 23 Don’t know 9 9 6 8 15 7 10 PPIC Statewide S urvey APPROVAL OF FEDERAL ELECTED OFFICIALS Today, President Obama’s job approval rating (48%) is at its record low and near previous lows in July (50%), May (51%), and last December (51%). Nationally, the president’s job approval among all adults was at 4 0 percent (50 % disapprove) in a recent CBS/New Yor k Times poll . Among likely voters in California , approval is at 46 percent, the same as in January (46%). The partisan divide on this question holds, with 72 percent of Democrats approving of the president’s job and 82 percent of Republicans disapproving. Independents are more likely to disapprove (55%) than to approve (39%). Blacks (82%) are far more likely than Asians (60%), Latinos (50%), or whites (38%) to approve of the job the president is doing. The U.S. Congress continues to have low approval ratings among Californians (24%). Approval today is similar to what it was last September (28%). Today, a pproval ratings are even lower among likely voters (16%), but they are similar to those in recent surveys (14% May, 15% July). Approval ratings for the U.S. Congress are similar across parties (20% Democrats, 15% Republicans, 16% independents). According to a CNN/ORC poll, 14 percent of all adults in the nation approve of the job the U .S. Congress is doing, while 83 percent disapprove. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that…?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Barack Obama is handling his job as president of the United States Approve 48% 72 % 16 % 39 % 46 % Disapprove 48 23 82 55 51 Don ’t know 4 4 2 5 3 The U.S. Congress is handling its job Approve 24 20 15 16 16 Disapprove 66 73 79 76 80 Don ’t know 10 8 7 8 5 Senator Dianne Feinstein’s approval rating is at 47 percent among all adults and 55 percent among likely voters. Last September , 49 percent approved. Today, her rating among likely voters is similar to what it was last September (55% today, 51% September 2013 ). Forty -one percent of Californians approve of Senator Barbara Boxer, compared to 47 percent last September . The current approval rating for Senator Boxer matches her record -low ratings in September 2010 (41%) and September 2003 (41%). Forty-five percent of likely voters approve of her performance today , similar to our findings last September (4 8%). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that…?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Dianne Feinste in is handling her job as U.S. s enator Approve 47% 70 % 31 % 47 % 55 % Disapprove 33 19 61 38 40 Don’ t know 20 12 8 15 6 Barbara Boxer is handling her job as U.S. s enator Approve 41 66 17 41 45 Disapprove 37 21 74 40 47 Don’t know 21 13 9 19 7 September 2014 Californians and Their Government 19 PPIC Statewide S urvey HEALTH CARE REFORM Californians remain divided between generally favorable (42%) and generally unfavorable (46%) opinions of the health care reform law. Results were similar in May (48% favorable and 43% unfavorable). According to a September Kaiser Family Foundation poll, adults nationwide are less likely than Californians in our survey to view the law favorably (35% favorable, 47% unfavorable). Most Democrats (61%) have a favorable view of the law, while an overwhelming majority of Republicans (80%) view it unfavorably. Independents are divided (41% favorable, 47% unfavorable). College graduates (50%) are somewhat more likely to have a favorab le opinion than those with some college (35%) or those with a high school education or less (43%). Californians with health insurance are much more likely to view the law favorably than those without health insurance ( 44% to 32% ). “As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it?” All adults Party Have health insurance Dem Rep Ind Yes No Generally favorable 42% 61 % 14 % 41 % 44 % 32 % Generally unfavorable 46 29 80 47 45 54 Don’t know 11 10 5 13 11 14 A majority of Californians (58%) say that the health care reform law has had no direct impact on them or their families. One in five adults (20%) say that they or their families have been directly helped by the law while a similar proportion say that they have been directly hurt (19%). Nationally, in a September Kaiser Family Foundation poll, adults nationwide are slightly more likely to say the law hurt them or their family (56% no direct impact, 14% helped, 27% hurt). In our survey, likely voters hold similar opinions to all adults . Republicans (37%) are far mor e likely than Democrats (13%) or independents (17%) to say that they have been directly hurt by the health care reform law. Those with an annual household income of less than $40,000 (27%) are more likely to say that they have been helped by the law than t hose with higher household incomes (13% $40,000 to $80,000, 15% $80,000 or more). Latinos (26%) and blacks (25%) are the most likely to say they have been helped, followed by Asians (20%) and whites (14%). “So far, would you say the health reform law has d irectly helped you and your family, directly hurt you and your family, or has it not had a direct impact?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Directly helped 20% 29 % 3 % 18 % 18 % Directly hurt 19 13 37 17 24 No direct impact 58 55 56 63 56 Both helped and hurt (volunteered) 1 1 2 – 1 Don’t know 2 2 1 1 1 Of the one in five Californians who say that they were helped by the health care reform law, 31 percent say that it allowed them or someone in their family to get or keep coverage. O ne in four (26%) say that the law made it easier to get health care, and one in five say it lowered health care costs (21%) . Of the one in five who say that they were hurt by the law, more than half say it led to increased costs (55%), while one in five say it made it more difficult to get health care (21%). September 2014 Californians and Their Government 20 PPIC Statewide S urvey IMMIGRATION POLICY A solid majority of Californians (61%) say that immigrants are a benefit to the state because of their hard work and job skills , while three in 10 adults (32%) say that immigrants are a burden because they use public services. These findings are similar to results from our March 2014 survey (65% benefit, 27% burden) and our May 2013 survey (61% benefit, 33% burden) . Likely voters are somewhat more divided, with half (51%) saying that immigrants are a benefit and four in 10 say ing they are a burden (41%). P erceptions differ across political parties, with Democrats (62%) and i ndependents (60%) far more likely than Republicans (33%) to say that immigrants are a benefit to the state. Younger Californians (age 18 to 34 , 74% ) are more likely than older Californians (age 35 to 54, 63%; age 55 and older , 45%) to say that immigrants are a benefit. Latinos (82%) and Asians (77%) are far more likely than blacks (49%) and whites (44%) to view immigrants as a benefit. “On another topic, please indicate which statement comes closest to your own view —even if neither is exactly right: Immigrants today are a benefit to California because of their hard work and job skills or Immigrants today are a burden to California because they use public services.” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Immigrants are a benefit to California 61 % 62 % 33 % 60 % 51 % Immigrants are a burden to California 32 27 61 34 41 Don’t know 7 11 6 6 8 Opinions are divided over priorities for immigration policy: securing the border (41%) or addressing the status of illegal immigrants (46%). These results are similar to those in our September 2013 survey (41% securing the border, 51% addressing the status of illegal immigrants). According to an August CBS News pol l, adults nationwide we re more likely than Californians in our survey to prioritize securing the border (59% securing the border, 31% addressing status of illegal immigrants) . Today, h alf of likely voters (52%) in California say that securing the border sh ould be a higher priority than addressing the status of illegal immigrants (36%). Partisans disagree on this issue: seven in 10 Republicans (69%) prefer secur ing the border, while half of Democrats (50%) prefer addressing the status of illegal immigrants. Independents are divided (43% secure border, 45% address status of illegal immigrants). “Which should be the higher priority now: securing the nation's border, or addressing the status of illegal immigrants currently in the U.S.?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Securing the border 41% 36 % 69 % 43 % 52 % Addressing the status of illegal immigrants 46 50 22 45 36 Both (volunteered) 8 7 7 7 9 Neither (volunteered) 2 2 1 2 1 Don’t know 3 5 2 2 2 Despite divided opinions on the priorities of immigration policy, an overwhelming majority of Californians (82%) favor providing a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants if they mee t certain requirements; 17 percent oppose this idea. These results are similar to those last September (85% favor, 14% oppose). Today, a solid majority who s ay that immigrants are a burden favor a path to citizenship (63%). Similarly, 67 percent of those who prioritize securing the border favor a path to citizenship. September 2014 Californians and Their Government 21 PPIC Statewide S urvey DISASTER PREPAREDNES S On August 24, shortly before our interviews began, the San Francisco Bay Area experienced a 6.0 magnitude earthquake, the strongest in the area in 25 years. In this context, how knowledgeable are Californians about prepar ing for a major disaster? Most Californians say they are very (33%) or somewhat (54%) knowledgeable, while only 12 percent say they are not too (8%) or not at all knowledgeable (4%). Levels of knowledge were similar in March 2006 (29% very, 52% somewhat knowledgeable; 17% not too/not at all knowledgeable) , the last time we asked this question. Half of Californians (52%) report having a disaster kit in their household, while 47 percent say they do not have one. Californians were slightly more likely to report having a disaster kit in 2006 (60%). Today, likely voters are slightly more likely (60%) than all adults (52%) to have one. Los Angeles residents (57%) are the most likely to have a disaster kit, followed by those in the San Francisco Bay Area (53%), Inland Empire (49%), Orange/San Diego (49%), and the C entral Valley (47%). Six in 10 Californians age 35 and older (59%) have a disaster kit, while a similar share of Californians age 18 to 34 (58%) do not have one. Across racial/ethnic groups, whites (55%) are the most likely to report having a disaster kit , followed by blacks (50%), Latinos (49%), and Asians (47%). Homeowners (58%) are more likely than renters (47%) to have a disaster kit . “Does your household have a disaster supplies kit equipped with food, water, and other essential supplies? ” All adults Region Home ownership Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Own Rent Yes 52% 47% 53% 57% 49% 49% 58% 47% No 47 52 47 42 48 51 41 52 Don’t know 1 1 1 1 3 – 1 1 Forty -four percent of Californians have a definite disaster plan in case of an earthquake, flood, or other disaster ; half of Californians (51%) do not have one. In 2006, Californians were as likely to have a disaster plan (47%) as they were to not have one (48%). Today, a major ity of likely voters have a disaster plan (54%). Central Valley residents (38%) are less likely than others to have a disaster plan. Asians (53%) and whites (48%) are more likely than blacks (39%) and Latinos (36%) to have a plan. Californians age 18 to 34 (37%) are less l ikely than older adults (age 35 to 54 , 47%; age 55 and older , 49%) to say their household has a definite disaster plan. The proportion of Californians with a definite disaster plan increases as education levels increase (37% high school or less, 47% some college, 51% college graduate). Homeowners (49%) are more likely than renters (39%) to have a disaster plan. “Does your household have a definite disaster plan in case of an earthquake, flood, or other disaster?” All adults Region Home ownership Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Own Rent Yes 44% 38% 45% 45% 48% 43% 49% 39% No 51 57 47 51 49 52 44 58 Not very definite (volunteered) 4 4 6 3 3 3 7 1 Don’t know 1 1 2 – 1 1 1 1 While t hirty-five percent of Californians report having both a disaster kit and a definite disaster plan, 36 percent say they do not have either one . September 2014 Californians and Their Government 22 PPIC Statewide S urvey DISASTER PREPAREDNES S (CONTINUED) How worried are Californians about a member of their household or themselves experiencing personal injury, property damage, or a major disruption of their routine in a major disaster ? Slightly more than six in 10 Californians say they are either very (28%) or somewhat worried ( 36%). A bout three in 10 Californians are not too (24%) or not at all worried (11%). In March 2006, nearly six in 10 were either very (20%) or somewhat (37%) worried, and four in 10 were not too (30%) or not at all (12%) worried. Today, Los Angeles residents (75%) are the most likely to be at least somewhat worried (67% Inland Empire, 63% San Francisco Bay Area, 57% Central Valley, 56% Orange/San Diego). “How worried are you that you and the members of your household will experience personal injury, property damage or a major disruption of your routine if there is a disaster, such as a major earthquake? Would you say very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not at all worried?” All adults Region Home ownership Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Own Rent Very worried 28% 29% 24% 38% 19% 22% 23% 35% Somewhat worried 36 28 39 37 37 45 38 32 Not too worried 24 26 29 15 33 21 27 21 Not at all worried 11 17 7 10 11 11 11 11 Don’t know – – 1 1 – 1 – – Two in three Californians have at least some confidence (20% a great deal, 46% some) in the federal government in terms of its readiness to respond to disasters in California; three in 10 say they have very little (22%) or none (10%). Confidence in the federal government is much higher today than in 2006 ( 66% to 41%). T oday, trust is higher in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles (70% each) and Orange/San Diego (66%) than in the Central Valley (60%) and the Inland Empire (56%). In terms of state and local government, seven in 10 Californians have at least some confidence (27% a great deal, 46% some) , while one in four have very little (18%) or none (7%). Confidence in state and local government is much higher today than in 2006 (73% to 59% ). Confidence is highest in Los Angeles (76%) followed by the San Francisco Bay Area (73%), Orange/San Diego (71%), Inland Empire (70%), and the Central Valley (68%). “How much confidence do you have in the __________ government in terms of their readiness to respond to disasters, such as a major earthquake in California? ” All adults Region Likely voters Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Los Angeles Orange/ San Diego Inland Empire Federal A great deal 20% 17% 19% 26% 18% 16% 18% Some 46 43 51 44 48 40 45 Very little 22 27 19 20 21 27 24 None 10 13 10 8 9 16 12 Don’t know 2 1 – 2 5 1 1 State and local A great deal 27 24 31 31 26 19 24 Some 46 44 42 45 45 51 50 Very little 18 25 19 15 15 18 17 None 7 6 8 6 6 10 7 Don’t know 3 1 1 3 8 2 1 September 2014 Californians and Their Government 23 REGIONAL MAP September 2014 Californians and Their Government 24 METHODOLOGY The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance from Dean Bonner, associate survey director and project manager for this survey, and survey research associates Renatta DeFever, Lunna Lopes , and Jui Shrestha. The Californians and Their Government series is supported with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. The PPIC Statewide Survey invites input, comments, and suggestions from policy and public opinion experts and from its own advisory committee, but survey methods, questions, and content are determined solely by PPIC’s survey team. Findings in this report are based on a survey of 1,702 California adult residents, including 1,10 5 interviewed on landline telephones and 597 interviewed on cell phones. Interviews took an average of 20 minutes to complete. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights from September 8 –15, 2014. Landline interviews were conducted using a computer -generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible for selection, and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as six t imes to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Cell phone interv iews were conducted using a computer -generated random sample of cell phone numbers. All cell phone numbers with California area codes were eligible for selection, and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as eight times to increase the likelihood of reaching an eligible respondent. Once a cell phone user was reached, it was verified that this person was age 18 or older, a resident of California, and in a safe place to continue the survey (e.g., not driving). Cell phone respondents were offered a small reimbursement to help defray the cost of the call. Cell phone interviews were conducted with adults who have cell phone service only and with those who have both cell phone and landline service in the h ousehold. Live landline and cell phone intervi ews were conducted by Abt SRBI, Inc., in English and Spanish, according to respondents’ preferences. Accent on Languages, Inc., translated new survey questions into Spanish. Abt SRBI uses the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2010– 2012 American Community Survey’s (ACS ) Public Use Microdata Series for California (with regional coding information from the University of Minnesota’s Integrated Public Use Microdata Series for California) to compare certain demographic characteristics of the survey sample— region, age, gender, race/ethnicity, and education —with the characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the ACS figures. To estimate landline and cell phone service in California, Abt SRBI used 2012 state -level estimates rele ased by the National Center for Health Statistics —which used data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the ACS —and 2013 estimates for the West Census Region in the latest NHIS report. The estimates for California were then compared against landline and cell phone service reported in this survey. We also used voter registration data from the California Secretary of State to compare the party registration of registered voters in our sample to party registration statewide. The landline and cell phone samples were then integrated using a frame integration weight, while sample balancing adjusted for differences across regional, age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, telephone service, and party registration groups. September 2014 Californians and Their Government 25 PPIC Statewide Survey The sampling error, taking des ign effects from weighting into consideration, is ±3.6 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total unweighted sample of 1,702 adults. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 3.6 percentage points of what they would be i f all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for unweighted subgroups is larger: for the 1,321 registered voters, the sampling error is ±4.1 percent; for the 916 likely voters, it is ±4.9 percent . For questions 23, 25, 29, and 42 (652 re spondents), asked from September 8– 11, it is ±5.7 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. We present results for fi ve geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tul are, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “ Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, “Inland Empire” refers to Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, and “Orange/San Diego” refers to Orange and San Diego Counties. Residents of other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, likely voters, and primary likely voters, but sample sizes for these less populous areas are not large enough to report separately. In several places, we refer to coastal and inland counties. The “ coastal” region refers to the counties along the California coast from De l Norte County to San Diego County and includes all the San Francisco Bay Area counties. All other counties are included in the “inland” region. We present specific results for non- Hispanic whites and also for Latinos, who account for about a third of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest -growing voter groups. Results for other racial/ethnic groups —such as Asians, blacks, and Native Americans —are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, likely voters, and primary likely voter s, but sample sizes are not large enough for separate analysis. We compare the opinions of those who report they are registered Democrats, registered Republicans, and decline- to-state or independent voters; the results for those who say they are registered to vote in other parties are not large enough for separate analysis. We also analyze the responses of likely voters —so designated by their responses to voter registration survey questions, previous election participation, and current i nterest in politics. The percentages presented in the report tables and in the questionnaire may not add to 100 due to rounding. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey results to those in our earlier surveys and to those in national surveys by CBS Ne ws, CBS/New York Times, CNN/ORC, Kaiser Family Foundation, NBC/Wall Street Journal . A dditional details about our methodology can be found at www.ppic.org/content/other/SurveyMethodology.pdf and are available upon request through surveys@ppic.org . September 2014 Californians and Their Government 26 QUESTIONNAIRE AND RESULTS CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT September 8 –15, 2014 1,702 California Adult Residents: English , Spanish MARGIN OF ERROR ±3. 6% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMP LE PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100 D UE TO ROUNDING 1. First, thinki ng about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today? [code, don’t read ] 33 % jobs, economy 24 water, drought 5 education; schools, teachers 5 immigration, illegal immigration 4 state budget, deficit, taxes 3 crime, gangs, drugs 2 government In general 2 housing costs, availability 2 health care, health reform, Obamacare 2 environment, pollution, global warming 13 other 5 don’t know 2. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California? 51% approve 28 disapprove 21 don’t know 3. Overall , do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job? 37% approve 42 disapprove 20 don’t know 4. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 43% right direction 48 wrong direction 8 don’t know 5. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 44% good times 45 bad times 10 don’t know 6. Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are reg istered to vote in California? 65% yes [ask q6a] 35 no [skip to q7b ] 6a. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or are you registered as a decline -to -state or independent voter? 45% Democrat [ask q 7] 29 Republican [ask q 7a] 4 another party (specify) [ask q8] 22 Independent [skip to q 7b ] 7. Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 54% strong 44 not very strong 2 don’t know September 2014 Californians and Their Government 27 PPIC Statewide Survey [ skip to q8 ] 7a. Would you call yourself a strong Republican o r not a very strong Republican? 49% strong 46 not very strong 4 don’t know [skip to q8] 7b.Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republ ican Party or Democratic Party? 24% Republican Party 44 Democratic Party 24 neither (volunteered) 8 don’t know [questions 8 to 20 reported for likely voters] 8. [likely voters only] If the November 4th election for governor were being held today, would you vote for [ rotate ] (1) Jerry Brown, a Democrat, [ or ] (2) Neel Kashkari a Republican? 54% Jerry Brown, a Democrat 33 Neel Kashkari, a Republican 2 would not vote for governor (volunteered) 11 don’t know 9. [likely voters only] How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2014 governor’s election —very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 12% very closely 40 fairly closely 28 not too closely 19 not at all closely – don’t know 10. [likely voters only] In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for governor on November 4th? 55% satisfied 31 not satisfied 14 don’t know 11. [likely voters only] If the Democrats in the state legislature gained a two -thirds majority as a result of the November 2014 election, do you think that this would be [ rotate] (1) (a good thing) [or] (2) (a b ad thing) for California, or does it make no difference? 34% good thing 37 bad thing 28 no difference 2 don’t know 12. [likely voters only] What is your preference for the outcome of this year's congressional elections: [ rotate ] (1) a Congress controlled by Republicans [or] (2) a Congress controlled by Democrats? 40% controlled by Republicans 50 controlled by Democrats 10 don’t know Next, we have a few questions to ask you about some of the propositions on the November ballot. 13. [likely vot ers only] Proposition 1 is called the “Water Bond. Funding for Water Quality, Supply, Treatment, and Storage Projects.” It authorizes $7.5 billion in general obligation bonds for state water supply infrastructure projects, including surface and groundwater storage, ecosystem and watershed protection and restoration, and drinking water protection. Fiscal i mpact is increased state bond costs averaging $360 million annually over 40 years and local government savings for water -related projects, likely averaging a couple hundred million dollars annually over the next few decades. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 1? 58% yes 29 no 14 don’t know September 2014 Californians and Their Government 28 PPIC Statewide Survey 14. [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 1— is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 51% very important 35 somewhat important 7 not too important 2 not at all important 4 don’t know 15. [likely voters only] Proposition 2 is called the “State Budget. Budget Stabilization Account . Legislative Constitutional Amendment.” It requires annual transfer of state general fund revenues to budget stabilization account and requires half the revenues be used to repay state debts. It limits use of remaining funds to emergencies or budget deficits. Fiscal impact is long -term state savings from faster payment of existing debts and different levels of state budget reserves, depending on the economy and decisions by elected officials as well as smaller local reserves for some school districts. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 2? 43% yes 33 no 24 don’t know 16. [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 2 —is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 30% very important 42 somewhat important 14 not too important 3 not at all important 11 don’t know 17. [likely voters only] Proposition 45 is called the “Healthcare Insurance. Rate Changes. Initiative Statute.” It requires the Insurance Commissioner’s approval before a health insurer can change its rates or anything else affecting the charges associated with health insurance. It provides for public notice, disclosure, and hearing, and subsequent judicial review and exempts employer large group health plans. Fiscal impact is increased state administrative costs to regulate health insurance, likely not exceeding the low millions of dollars annually in most years, funded from fees p aid by health insurance companies. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 45? 48% yes 38 no 14 don’t know 18. [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 45— is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 42% very important 36 somewhat important 13 not too important 4 not at all important 6 don’t know September 2014 Californians and Their Government 29 PPIC Statewide Survey 19. [likely voters only] Proposition 47 is called the “Criminal Sentences. Misdemeanor Penalties. Init iative Statute. ” It requires a misdemeanor sentence instead of a felony for certain drug and property offenses and is inapplicable to persons with prior conviction for serious or violent crime and registered sex offenders. Fiscal impact is state and county criminal justice savings potentially in the high hundreds of millions of dollars annually and state savings spent on school truancy and dropout prevention, mental health and substance abuse treatment, and victim services. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 47? 62% yes 25 no 13 don’t know 20. [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 47— is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 42% very important 38 somewhat important 11 not too important 3 not at all important 6 don’t know 21. Changing topics, do you think the state budget situation in California —that is, the balance between government spending an d revenues —is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today? 55% big problem 32 somewhat of a problem 7 not a problem 6 don’t know 22. In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more — [rotate ] (1) I’d rather pay higher taxes and have a state government tha t provides more services, [or] (2) I’d rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services? 47% higher taxes and more services 46 lower taxes and fewer services 6 don’t know 23. [asked September 8 to 11 ] Overall, do you think the state budget process in California, in terms of both revenues and spending, is in need of major changes, minor changes, or do you think it is fine the way it is? 53% major changes 30 minor changes 10 fine the way it is 7 don’t know 24. When it comes to the tough choices involved in the state budget this year, would you prefer — [rotate ] (1) that the governor and legislature make all of the decisions about spending and taxes ; [or ] (2) that California voters make some of the decisions about spending and taxes at the ballot box? 15 % that the governor and legislature make all of the decisions 81 that California voters make some of the decisions about spending and taxes at the ballot box – other answer (specify) – both (volunteered) 3 don’t know September 2014 Californians and Their Government 30 PPIC Statewide Survey On another topic, California uses the direct initiative process, which enables voters to bypass the legislature and have issues put on the ballot—as state propositions —for voter approval or rejection. 25. [ asked September 8 to 11 ] Generally speaking, would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, or not satisfied with the way the initiative process is working in California today? 11% very satisfied 54 somewhat satisfied 27 not satisfied 9 don’t know 26. Overall, how much would you say that the initiative process in California today is controlled by special interests —a lot, some, or not at all? 55% a lot 33 some 4 not at all 8 don’t know Changing topics, 27. Would you say that the supply of water is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem in your part of California? 65% big problem 22 somewhat of a problem 12 not much of a problem 1 don’t know 28. If your local water district had a bond measure on the ballot to pay for water supply infrastructure projects, would you vote yes or no? 72% yes 19 no 9 don’t know We have a few questions to ask you about how prepared you are personally for earthquake s, floods, or other disasters. 29. [ asked September 8 to 11 ] First, how knowledgeable would you say you are about steps you can take to prepare for a disaster, such as a major earthquake? Would you say you are very knowledgeable, somewhat knowledgeable, n ot too knowledgeable or not at all knowledgeable? 33% very knowledgeable 54 somewhat knowledgeable 8 not too knowledgeable 4 not at all knowledgeable 1 don’t know [rotate questions 30 and 31 ] 30. Does your household have a disaster supplies kit equipped with food, water, and other essential supplies? 52% yes 47 no 1 don’t know 31. Does your household have a definite disaster plan in case of an earthquake, flood, or other disaster? 44% yes 51 no 4 not very definite; kind of have a plan (volunteered) 1 don’t know 32. How worried are you that you and the members of your household will experience personal injury, property damage , or a major disruption of your routine if there is a disaste r, such as a major earthquake? Would you say very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not at all worried? 28% very worried 36 somewhat worried 24 not too worried 11 not at all worried – don’t know September 2014 Californians and Their Government 31 PPIC Statewide Survey [ rotate questions 33 and 34 ] 33. How much confidence do you have in the federal government in terms of their readiness to respond to disasters, such as a major earthquake in California— a great deal, some, very little, or none? 20% a great deal 46 some 22 very little 10 none 2 don’t know 34. How much confidence do you have in the state and local government in terms of their readiness to respond to disasters, such as a major earthquake in California— a great deal, some, very little, or none? 27% a great deal 46 some 18 very little 7 none 3 don’t know On another topic, 35. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president of the United States? 48% approve 48 disapprove 4 don’t know [rotate questions 36 and 37 ] 36.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Dianne Feinstein is h andling her job as U.S. senator? 47% approve 33 disapprove 20 don’t know 37.Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barbara Boxer is handling her job as U.S. senator? 41% approve 37 disapprove 21 don’t know 38. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job? 24% approve 66 disapprove 10 don’t know Next, 39. As you may know, a health reform bill was signed into law in 2010. Given what you know about the health reform law, do you have a [rotate] (1) [generally favorable ] [or] (2) [generally unfavorable] opinion of it? 42% generally favorable 46 generally unfavorable 11 don’t know 40. So far, would you say the health reform law has [ rotate] (1) [directly helped you and your family ], (2) [di rectl y hurt you and your family ], or has it not had a direct impact? 20% directly helped [ask q40a] 19 directly hurt [skip to q40b ] 58 no direct impact [skip to q41 ] 1 both helped and hurt [ask q40a] (volunteered) 2 don’t know [skip to q41 ] [skip to q41 ] 40a.[of those who say the health reform law helped/both helped and hurt] What would you say is the main way the health reform law has helped you and your family? Has it [ rotate 1 -3, keep 4 always last] (1) allowed someone in your family t o get or keep health coverage, (2) lowered your health care or health insurance costs (3) made it easier for you to get the health care you need [ or] (4) has it helped in some other way? 31% allowed someone in your family to get or keep health coverage 21 lowered your health care or health insurance costs 26 made it easier for you to get the health care you need 17 helped in some other way 5 don’t know September 2014 Californians and Their Government 32 PPIC Statewide Survey 40b. [of those who say the health reform law hurt/both helped and hurt] What would you say is the main way the health reform law has hurt you and your family? Has it [rotate 1 -3, keep 4 always last] (1) caused someone in your f amily to lose their insurance, (2) increased your health care or health insurance costs (3) made it more difficult for you t o get the health ca re you need (4) or has it hurt in some other way? 7% caused someone in your family to lose their insurance 55 increased your health care or health insurance costs 21 made it more difficult for you to get the health care you need 15 hurt in some other way 2 don’t know 41. On another topic, please indicate which statement comes closest to your own view —even if neither is exactly right. [rotate] (1) Immigrants today are a benefit to California because of their hard work and job skills [ or] (2) Immigrants today are a burden to California because they use public services. 61% immigrants are a benefit to California 32 immigrants are a burden to California 7 don’t know 42. [asked September 8 to 11 ] Would you favor or oppose providing a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants in the U.S. if they met certain requirements including a waiting period, paying fines and back taxes, passing criminal background checks, and learning English? 82% favor 17 oppose 2 don’t know 42a. Which should be the higher priority now: [ rotate] (1) securing the nation's border, [or ] (2) addressing the status of illegal immigrants currently in the U.S.? 41% securing the border 46 status of illegal immigrants 8 both (volunteered) 2 neither (volunteered) 3 don’t know 43. Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [ read list, rotate order top to bottom] 11% very liberal 20 somewhat liberal 29 middle -of -the -road 26 somewhat conservative 10 very conservative 4 don’t know 44.Generally speaking, how much inter est would you say you have in politics —a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 19% great deal 37 fair amount 34 only a little 9 none 1 don’t know September 2014 Californians and Their Government 33 PPIC Statewide Survey [d1 to d5: demographic questions] D6. Are you, yourself, now covered by any form of health insurance or health plan or do you not have health insurance at this time? D6a. Which of the following is your main source of health insurance coverage? Is it a plan through your employer, a plan through your spouse’s employer, a plan you purchased y ourself either from an insurance company or the state or federal marketplace, are you covered by Medicare or Medi -C al , or do you get your health insurance from somewhere else? 86% yes, covered by health insurance 30 through employer 13 Medicare 12 Medi -Cal 10 through spouse’s employer 11 self-purchased plan [ask d6b] 4 through parents/mother/ father (volunteered ) 3 somewhere else (specify) 1 other government plan (volunteered ) 13 not insured 1 don’t know/refused D6b. [of those who purchased a plan themselves] Did you purchase your plan directly from an insurance company, from the marketplace known as healthcare.gov or Covered California, or through an insurance agent or broker? ( if agent or broker: Do you know if the plan you purcha sed through a broker was a plan from the state or federal health insurance marketplace known as healthcare.gov or Covered California, or was it a plan purchased directly from an insurance company and not through an exchange or marketplace? ) 52% from an in surance company, either directly or through a broker 40 from healthcare.gov/ Covered California, either directly or through a broker 8 don’t know/refused Summary of D6, D6a, D6b 86 % yes, covered by health insurance 30 through employer 13 Medicare 12 Medi -Cal 10 through spouse’s employer 11 self-purchased plan 6 from an insurance company, either directly or through a broker 4 from healthcare.gov/ Covered California, either directly or through a broker 1 don’t know 4 through parents/mother/ father (volunteered) 3 somewhere else (specify) 1 other government plan (volunteered) 13 not insured 1 don’t know/refused [d7 to d17: demographic questions] September 2014 Californians and Their Government 34 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect Angela Blackwell Founder and CEO PolicyLink Mollyann Brodie Senior Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Bill Lane Center for the American West Stanford University Jon Cohen Vice President of Survey Research SurveyMonkey Joshua J. Dyck Co-Director Center for Public Opinion University of Massachusetts, Lowell Russell Hancock President and CEO Joint Venture Silicon Valley Network Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Robert Lapsley President California Business Roundtable Carol S. Larson President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Monica Lozano Chairman US Hispanic Media, Inc. Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Lisa Pitney Vice President, Government Relations The Walt Disney Company Robert K. Ross, M.D. President and CEO The California Endowment Most Reverend Jaime Soto Bishop of Sacramento Roman Catholic Diocese of Sacramento Carol Whiteside President Emeritus Great Valley Center The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PPIC BOARD OF DIRECTORS Donna Lucas, Chair Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Mark Baldassare President and CEO Public Policy Institute of California Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect María Blanco Vice President, Civic Engagement California Community Foundation Brigitte Bren Attorney Louise Henry Bryson Chair Emerita, Board of Trustees J. Paul Getty Trust Walter B. Hewlett Member, Board of Directors The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Phil Isenberg Vice Chair, Delta Stewardship Council Mas Masumoto Author and F armer Steven A. Merksamer Senior Partner Nielsen, Merksamer, Parrinello, Gross & Leoni , LLP Kim Polese Chairman ClearStreet, Inc. Thomas C. Sutton Retired Chairman and CEO Pacific Life Insurance Company The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research on major economic, social, and political issues. The institute’s goal is to raise public awareness and to give elected representatives and other decision makers a more informed basis for developing policies and programs. The institute’s research focuses on the underlying forces shaping California’s future, cutting across a wide range of public policy concerns, including economic development, education, environment and resources, governance, population, public finance, and social and health policy. PPIC is a public charity . It does not take or support positions on any ballot measures or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. PPIC was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. Mark Baldassare is President and CEO of PPIC. Donna Lucas is Chair of the Board of Directors. Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source and the copyright notice below is included. Copyright © 201 4 Public Policy Institute of California All rights reserved. San Francisco, CA PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, California 94111 phone: 415.291.4400 fax: 415.291.4401 PPIC SACRAMENTO CENT ER Senator Office Building 1121 L Street, Suite 801 Sacramento, California 95814 phone: 916.440.1120 fax: 916.440.1121 www.ppic.org survey@ppic.org" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 09:42:11" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(8) "s_914mbs" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:42:12" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 09:42:12" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["guid"]=> string(50) "http://148.62.4.17/wp-content/uploads/S_914MBS.pdf" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_mime_type"]=> string(15) "application/pdf" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" ["status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["attachment_authors"]=> bool(false) }