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PPIC is a public charity. It does not take or support positions on any ballot measures or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political part ies or candidates for public office. Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source. Research publications reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or of the staff, officers, advisory councils, or board of directors of the Public Policy Institute of California. PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 3 CONTACT Linda Strean 415 -291 -4412 Serina Correa 415 -291 -4417 News Release EMBARGOED : Do not publish or broadcast until 9:00 p.m. PDT on Wednesday, September 21 , 2016. Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: www.ppic.org/main/pressreleaseindex.asp PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THE IR GOVERNMENT Clinton Has Big Lead Amid Strong Interest in Debates HARRIS AHEAD IN SENATE RACE —MAJORITIES FAVOR MARIJUANA MEASURE, TAXES ON CIGARETTES AND HIGH EARN INGS SAN FRANCISCO, September 21, 2016— California’s likely voters favor Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by a wide margin, and most say they are very interested in the upcoming presidential debates. When likely vo ters are asked what they would like to hear the candidates talk about, they are more likely to name jobs and the economy than any other issue. These are among the top findings of a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of Californ ia (PPIC), with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. Clinton leads Trump by 16 points (47% to 31%) among California likely voters. Her lead was 16 points in July (46 % Clinton, 30% Trump) , when the survey did not include the names of the candidates’ r unning mates, Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Mike Pence. The Libertarian ticket, Gary Johnson and Bill Weld, has 10 percent support among likely voters, and the Green Party’s Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka have 5 percent. Clinton leads Trump in all age, education, and income groups. Among other results:  Clinton and Trump have strong majority support in their own parties: 83 percent of Democrats favor Clinton and 73 percent of Republicans favor Trump. Clinton leads slightly among independents (40% to 32%).  Men support Clinton over Trump (41% to 30%), and women favor her by an even larger margin (52% to 32%).  Across racial/ethnic groups, whites are divided (39% Clinton, 37% Trump). Clinton leads Trump by large margins among Latinos (62% to 19%) and other ra cial/ethnic groups (59% to 19%). Sample sizes of Asian American and African American likely voters are too small for separate analysis. An overwhelming majority of likely voters (90%) say they are interested in the presidential debates, and 62 percent say they are very interested. Jobs and the economy ranks as the top issue (30%) likely voters would like the candidates to talk about. Immig ration and illegal immigration is a distant second (16%). Democrats (31%), Republicans (30%), and independents (28%) all name jobs and the economy as their top issue. Two other issues were mentioned by 5 percent or more of likely voters: foreign policy (8%) and terrorism and national security (7%). “ Most likely voters have made up their minds in the presidential race , but they are still very interested in the upcoming debates,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO . “Californians across the partisa n divide most want to hear from the presidential candidates about jobs and the economy .” PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 4 Echoing their strong interest in the debates, 61 percent of likely voters say they are following news about the candidates very closely —a higher percentage than in previous presidential races (48% September 2000, 51% September 2004, 52% September 2008, 53% September 2012). While likely voters’ interest in the election is high, their satisfaction with the choice of candidates is low. Only 42 percent are satisfied (64% September 2008, 66% September 2012). A slim majority of Democrats (52%) are satisfied, compared to fewer Republicans (42%) and even fewer independents (28%). Majorities across Parties Favor a Path for Undocumented to Stay Picking up a major theme in the presidential race, the survey asks questions about immigration policy. A strong majority of likely voters (80 %) say that there should be a way for undocumented immigrants to stay in the country legally if certain requirements are met, and just 18 percent say they should not be allowed to stay legally. Majorities across parties say undocumented immigrants should be allowed to stay ( 93% Democrats, 78% independents, 61% Republicans). Among likely voters supporting Trump, 52 percent say undocumented immigrants s hould be allowed to stay and 45 percent say they should not. Among Clinton supporters, 95 percent say these immigrants should be allowed to stay. The survey also asks if a wall should be built along the entire border with Mexico, as Trump has proposed. Am ong likely voters, 34 percent favor the idea and 64 percent are opposed. Most Republicans ( 66% ) are in favor, and most Democrats (90 %) and independents (62% ) are not. Trump supporters overwhelmingly favor building a wall (82%) and Clinton supporters overwhelmingly oppose it (92%). Harris Leads Sanchez, But 24 Percent Say They Won’t Vote for Either In the US Senate race, Kamala Harris leads Loretta Sanchez by 7 points (32% to 25%) among likely voters , with 19 percent undecided. Harris was ahead by 18 points (38 % to 20% ) in July, but the race was closer in May, when Harris led by 8 points ( 34% to 26% ). Today, 24 percent volunteer that they would not vote for either candidate. When this group is excluded, Harris leads by 10 points (4 3% to 33%). Half of Democrats (50%) support Harris, while independents are more divided (30% Harris, 25% Sanchez) and 42 percent of Republicans volunteer that they would not vote in this race. Sanchez leads Harris among Latinos (58% to 16%), while Harris is ahead amon g whites (33% to 17%) and other racial/ethnic groups (46% to 19%). About half of likely voters (48%) are satisfied with their choice of candidates in this election. Democrats (75%) are overwhelmingly satisfied, while far fewer independents (39%) express this view. Just 26 percent of Republicans are satisfied with their candidate choice. “This is an unusual statewide race between two candidates of the same party,” Baldassare said. “Kamala Harris continues to lead , with about one in three supporting her US Senate candidacy. At the same time, many Republicans and independents say they’re still undecided or won’t vote.” Just under Half Support School Bond Initiative The survey asks about four initiatives on the November ballot — all require simple majorities to pass.  Proposition 51. When likely voters are read the ballot title and label, 47 percent would vote yes and 43 percent would vote no on this measure, which would authorize the state to issue $9 billion in bonds to fund construction and modernization of K–12 schools and community college facilities. Support among public school parents (52%) and those with no children in the household (46%) is similar. When asked about the importance of the outcome of the vote on Proposition 51, 42 percent say it is very important. Those who would vote yes are more likely than those would vote no to say the outcome is very important (49% to 34%). PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 5  Proposition 55. A majority of likely voters (54%) say they would vote yes on this measure, which would extend by 12 years the te mporary tax increase on earnings over $250,000 (38% no). Revenue would be allocated to public schools, community colleges, and , in certain years, health care. This tax was enacted as part of Proposition 30 in 2012 and is set to expire in 2018. Asked to ass ess the importance of the outcome on this measure, 41 percent say it is very important to them —those who would vote yes and those who would vote no are similarly likely to hold this view.  Proposition 56. A majority of likely voters (59%) support this measu re to increase the cigarette tax by $2 per pack to fund health care, prevention of tobacco use, and law enforcement (36% no). There is majority support among Democratic and independent voters, while Republicans are more divided. Women (63%) are somewhat more likely than men (55%) to favor Proposition 56. Latinos (76%) and members of other racial/ethnic groups (68%) are more likely than whites (52%) to support it. How important is the outcome on this measure? Very important, according to 43 percent of likely voters. Those who would vote yes are more likely than those who would vote no to say so (50% to 35%).  Proposition 64. A majority of likely voters (60%) would vote yes on this measure to legalize marijuana use under state law by adults 21 and older and tax sales and cultivation (36% no). Most Democratic (65%) and independent (64%) likely voters support the proposition. Republicans are divided ( 46% yes, 52% no). Just over half of Latinos would vote yes, while support among whites and other racial/ethnic groups is slightly higher. Support is higher among those 18 to 34 years old (74%) than among older voters (59% 35 –54, 54% 55 and older). Half of likely voters (50%) say the outcome on Proposition 64 is very important. Those who would vote yes are much less li kely to say the outcome is very important than those who would vote no (46% to 59%). “Californians view the outcome of Proposition 64 as the most important of the four initiatives that we tested,” Baldassare said. “It’s interesting that the opponents of the marijuana legalization initiative are more likely than its proponents to say the outcome is very important to them.” As Californians prepare to vote on 17 state propositions, most likely voters (61%) say they are satisfied with the way the initiative process is working, although just 12 percent say they are very satisfied. Despite their general satisfaction, most (57%) say there are too many propositions on the state ballot. Most (64%) also say special interests have a lot of control over the initiative process. An even larger majority (79%) say the wording for initiatives is often too complicated and confusing. Legislature’s Job Approval Lower Than Brown’s But Better Than in 2014 A majority of likely voters (55%) approve of the way Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor. The legislature fares less well: 42 percent of likely voters approve and 48 percent disapprove of its job performance. But this is a higher rating than the legislature received before the last le gislative election (32% approved in September 2014). Asked to rate their own representatives in the state assembly and senate, about half of likely voters (49% ) approve, a higher share than two years ago (38% October 2014). As the end of President Obama’s second term approaches, 54 percent of California likely voters approve of the way he is doing his job . They give Congress an approval rating of 16 percent—id entical to the rating in September 2014, before the last congressional election. California likely voters today are much more likely to approve of their own representative s in the US House (47%) than of Congress overall. Divided on the State’s Direction The election comes at a time when fewer than half of likely voters (45%) say things in the state are going in the right direction (52% wrong direction), and a similar share (47%) expect California to have good times financially in the next year (42% bad times). Supporters of Clinton are more likely to say California is headed in the right direction (73%) and to expect good times financially (65%). Most Trump supporters say California is headed in the wrong direction (90%) and expect bad economic times in the year ahead (69%). PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 6 November 2016 Election Key Findings Hillary Clinton continues to lead Donald Trump by a wide margin (47 % to 31%) in the presidential race . A majority of likely voters are not satisfied with their choice of candidates . Six in ten are very interested in the upcoming presidential debate s, and just under half would most like to hear the candidates talk about jobs and the econo my or immigration . (page s 8, 9 ) Kamala Harris leads Loretta Sanchez in the US Senate race (32 % to 25%), with about four in ten likely voters undecided (19 %) or saying the y will not vote for US senator (2 4% ). (page 9) Forty -seven percent of likely voters would vote yes on Proposition 51 (school bond to fund construction projects), 4 3 percent would vote no, and 10 percent are unsure. Forty -two percent of likely voters say t he o utcome of the vote on Proposition 51 is very important. (page 10) Fifty -four per cent of likely voters would vote yes on Proposition 55 (tax extension on high incomes ), 38 percent would vote no, and 8 percent are unsure. Forty -one percent of likely voters say the outcome of the vote on Proposition 55 is very important . (page 11) Fifty -nine percent of likely voters would vote yes on Proposition 56 ( cigarette tax increase ), and 36 percent would vote no. Forty -three percent of likely voters say the outcome of the vote on Proposition 56 is very important. (page 12) Sixty percent of l ikely voters would vote yes on Proposition 64 (legalizing marijuana), and 36 percent would vote no. Fifty percent of likely voters say the outco me of the vote on Proposition 64 is very important. (page 13) 30 16 87 0 20 40 60 80 Jobs, economy Immigration, illegal immigration Foreign policy in general Terrorism, nationalsecurity Percent likely voters Issue you would most like to hear candidates talk about during presidential debates 38 32 20 25 28 24 14 19 0 20 40 60 80 July September Percent likely voters Kamala Harris Loretta Sanchez Would not vote Don't know US Senate race 47 54 59 60 0 20 40 60 80 Prop 51: School bond Prop 55: Tax extensionto fund education Prop 56: Cigarette tax Prop 64: Marijuana legalization Percent likely voters Support for some key propositions PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 7 Presidential Election As the presidential election enters the fall season, California likely voters favor Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by 16 points (47% to 31%). Clinton’s lead was also 16 points in the July PPIC Survey (46% Clinton, 30 % Trump) , when we were not including the vice presidential running mates. Today, Clinton has strong support among Democrats (83%) , Trump has strong support among Republicans (73%), and Clinton leads slightly among independents (40% to 32%). Clinton ’s lead is wider among women (52% to 32%) than among men (41% to 30%) . Clinton leads Trump by larger margins among Latinos and other racial/ethnic groups (sample sizes for Asian American and African American likely voters are too small for separate analysis), while the race is c lose among whites. Clinton is ahead of Trump in all age, education, and income groups. She leads by wide margins in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area , while the ra ce is close in Orange/San Diego, the Inland Empire, and the Central Valley. “If the November 8 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for: the Democratic ticket of Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Libertarian ticket of Gary Johnson and Bill Weld, or the G reen P arty ticket of Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka?” Likely voters only Clinton- Kaine Trump- Pence Johnson- Weld Stein- Baraka Someone else (volunteered) Would not vote for president (volunteered) Don’t know All likely voters 47% 31 % 10 % 5 % 2 % 2 % 4 % Party Democrats 83 3 3 5 1 1 5 Republicans 10 73 7 1 3 2 4 Independents 40 32 16 6 – 3 3 Gender Men 41 30 13 7 1 2 5 Women 52 32 6 2 2 2 4 Race/Ethnicity Latinos 62 19 5 8 1 1 4 Whites 39 37 10 4 2 2 5 Other groups 59 19 13 3 – 3 2 About four in ten likely voters (42%) are satisfied with their choices of presidential candidates—similar to the last time we asked this question in May, shortly before the California primary (42%). However, satisfaction levels today are far lower than th ey were four or eight years ago (66% September 2012, 64% September 2008). Today, half of Democrats (52%), fewer Republicans (42%), and even fewer independents (28%) are satisfied. Satisfaction is lower among those who describe themselves as political moder ates (29%) than among liberals (42%) or conservatives (50%). Satisfaction is below 50 percent among whites (40%) , Latinos (45%), and other racial/ethnic groups (48%). Satisfaction declines as education levels rise (37% college graduates) and increases with age. “In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for US president in 2016?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Age Dem Rep Ind 18 to 34 35 to 54 55 and older Satisfied 42% 52 % 42 % 28 % 28 % 35 % 54 % Not satisfied 56 46 57 69 72 61 45 Both (volunteered) 1 2 1 2 – 3 1 Don’t know – 1 – 1 – – 1 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 8 Presidential Election (continued) The first of three highly anticipated debates between Clinton and Trump will be held on September 26. When asked about the one issue they would most like to hear the candidates talk about in the presidential debates, likely voters are about twice as likely to mention jobs and the e conomy (30%) as immigration and illegal immigration (16%). Two other issues were mentioned by more than 5 percent: foreign policy (8%) and terrorism and national security (7%). Similar shares of Democrats (31%), Republicans (30%), and independents (28%) say that they want to hear the presidential candidates talk about jobs and the economy. Trump supporters (34%) and Clinton supporters (31%) are about equally likely to mention jobs and the economy, while more Trump supporters (24%) want to hear about immigration and illegal immigration (15% Clinton supporters ). Nine in ten California likely voters say they are interested in the upcoming presidential debates , and about six in ten say they are very interested. Majorities of Republicans (66%), Democrats (58%), and independents (64%) say they are very interested in the upcoming presidential debates. However, Trump supporters (71%) are more likely than Clinton supporters (60%) to say they are very interested. T he p roportio n who say they are very interested in the upcoming presidential debates rises slightly with age (64% for 55 and older), while it is similarly high among renters and homeowners and across education and income levels . About six in ten whites (64%), L atinos (57%), and other racial/ethnic groups (61%) say they are very interested in the upcoming presidential debates. “How interested, if at all, are you in the upcoming presidential debates: very interested, somewhat interested, not so interested, or no t at all interested?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Age Dem Rep Ind 18 to 34 35 to 54 55 and older Very interested 62% 58 % 66 % 64 % 57 % 61 % 64 % Somewhat interested 28 32 28 22 33 29 25 Not so interested 6 8 2 8 8 6 5 Not at all interested 4 2 5 6 2 4 5 About six in ten likely voters say they are very closely following the news about presidential candidates. While the current findings reflect an increase from our polling before the California primary in June and the national party conventions this summer, most likely voters have been very closely following the news about presidential candidates since March . Majorities across parties say they are following the news about the presidential candidates very closely (66% Republicans, 57% Democrats, 57% independents), as are Trump supporters (69%) and Clinton supporters (58%). The proportion who are very closely following the news about the presidential candidates is higher among older adults (66% 55 and older), college graduates (64%), homeowners (64%), and higher-inc ome adults (67% for $80,000 or more) . It is higher among whites (64%) than among Latinos (56%) and other racial/ethnic groups (54%). The 2016 presidential election is attracting a higher level of interest compared to previous election cycles (48% September 2000 , 51% Se ptember 2004, 52% Septem ber 2008, 53% September 2012, 61 % today). 4552 57 555361 0 20 40 60 80 Jan-16 Mar-16 Apr-16May-16 Jul-16Sep-16 Percent likely votersVery closely following news Attention to news about presidential candidates PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 9 US Senate Election In the two-person, one -party California US Senate election, likely voters prefer Kamala Harris over Loretta Sanchez by 7 points (32% to 25%), compared to a n 18 point margin in the July PPIC Statewide Survey ( 38% to 2 0% ). In May, the race was closer , with Harris leading Sanchez by 8 points (34% to 26%). Today, excluding the 24 percent who volunteer they would not vote for either Democratic candidate, Harris leads Sanchez by 10 points (43 % to 33%) . Harris has strong support among Democrats (50%), while independents are more divided, and 42 percent of Republicans volunteer they will not vote in the US Senate race. Sanchez lea ds Harris among Latinos, while Harris leads Sanchez among whites and other racial/ethnic groups . Harris’s support increases with age, education, and income and is similar among men and women. Clinton supporters favor Harris over Sanchez (51% to 28%) , while nearly half of Trump supporters (47%) say they w ill not cast a vote for US s enator. “If the November 8 US Senate election were being held today, would you vote for Kamala Harris, a Democrat , or Loretta Sanchez, a Democrat?” Likely voters only Kamala Harris Loretta Sanchez Would not vote for US senator (volunteered) Don’t know All likely voters 32% 25 % 24 % 19 % Party Democrats 50 30 4 16 Republicans 16 22 42 20 Independents 30 25 27 18 Income Less than $40,000 28 38 10 24 $40,000 to $80,000 32 28 22 17 $80,000 or more 36 17 29 17 Race/Ethnicity Latinos 16 58 11 15 Whites 33 17 29 21 Other groups 46 19 22 13 About half of likely voters (48%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the US Senate election —a 9 point decline since we last asked this question in May, shortly before the California primary (57%). Democrats (75%) are overwhelmingly satisfied , while just under four in ten independents (3 9%) and about one in four Republicans (26%) are satisfied with the ir candidate choices. Satisfaction with candidate choices is much higher among Clinton supporters (72%) than Trump supporters (24%). Latinos (66%) and other racial/ethnic groups (58%) are more likely to express satisfaction than whites (42%). Sa tisfaction is higher in Los Angeles (56%) than in other regions and lowest in the Central Valley (39%). “In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for US Senate in 2016?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Race/Ethnicity Dem Rep Ind Latinos Whites Other groups Satisfied 48% 75 % 26 % 39 % 66 % 42 % 58 % Not satisfied 35 14 57 36 22 40 24 Both (volunteered) 1 1 – 1 1 1 – Don’t know 16 10 17 24 10 17 18 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 10 Proposition 51 Proposition 51 is a citizens’ initiative that would authorize the state to issue $9 billion in bonds to fund construction and modernization of K –12 schools and community college facilities. It is estimated that it would cost $17.6 billion to pay off the pr incipal and interest on the bonds. This measure requires a simple majority to pass. When read the Proposition 51 ballot title and label, 47 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 43 percent would vote no, and 10 percent are undecided. Support fo r Proposition 51 is similar among public school parents (52 %) and those with no children in the household (46%). A solid majority of Democratic likely voters (62 %) would vote yes , while a similar share of Republicans ( 64%) would vote no. Independent likely voters are more lik ely to say they would vote yes (50 %) than no (4 2%). Latino likely voters (63 %) are much more lik ely than whites (41%) to support Proposition 51. Support declines as age increases and is far higher among renters than homeowners (64% to 39%). “Proposition 51 is called the ‘ School Bonds. Funding for K–12 School and Community College Facilities. Initiative Statute. ’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 51?” * Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 47% 43 % 10 % Public school parents 52 34 13 Party Democrats 62 26 12 Republicans 29 64 6 Independents 50 42 8 Region Central Valley 38 53 9 San Francisco Bay Area 54 34 12 Los Angeles 51 40 9 Orange/San Diego 47 44 10 Inland Empire 41 49 10 Income Under $40,000 57 36 7 $40,000 to $80,000 45 44 11 $80,000 or more 48 42 11 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 25. Forty -two percent of likely voters say the outcome of Proposition 51 is very important to them . Across parties, th is perception is lowest among independents. T hose who would vote yes on Proposition 51 are more likely than those who would vote no to say the outcome is very important to them . “ How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 51 ?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Vote on Proposition 51 Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 42% 45 % 40 % 34 % 49 % 34 % Somewhat important 40 38 41 43 39 42 Not too important 11 10 11 13 9 16 Not at all important 4 3 6 6 2 7 Don’t know 3 4 2 5 1 1 The response to our tracking question among likely voters indicates that support for Proposition 51 (47%) is lower than the level of general support for a state school bond (6 1% ). PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 11 Proposition 55 Proposition 55 is a citizens’ initiative that would extend by 12 years the temporary tax increase on earnings over $250,000 that was enacted in 2012 as part of Proposition 30 and is set to expire in 2018. Revenue from the tax increase would be allocated to K –12 schools, community colleges, and —in certain years —health care. It requires a simple majority to pass. When read the Proposition 55 ballot title and label, 54 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 3 8 percent would vote no, and 8 percent ar e undecided. Proposition 55 has overwhelming support among Democratic likely voters, while half of independents would vote yes and a solid majority of Republicans would vote no. About six in ten public school parents say they would vote yes. Latinos (68% ) and members of other racial/ethnic groups (6 6% ) are much more likely than whites (48 %) to support Proposition 55. S upport is higher among younger likely voters and those making less than $40,000 than among older and more affluent likely voters . “Proposition 55 is called the ‘Tax Extension to Fund Education and Healthcare. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 5 5?” * Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 54% 38 % 8 % Public school parents 58 34 7 Party Democrats 78 15 7 Republicans 33 61 6 Independents 51 42 7 Region Central Valley 46 45 9 San Francisco Bay Area 63 28 9 Los Angeles 61 33 6 Orange/San Diego 47 43 10 Inland Empire 42 54 4 Income Under $40,000 68 25 7 $40,000 to $80,000 56 36 8 $80,000 or more 50 41 8 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 25. Forty -one percent of likely voters say the outcome of Proposition 55 is very important to them . Similar shares of those who would vote yes and no hold this opinion Across parties, Democrats are the most likely to say the outcome is very important. “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 55?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Vote on Proposition 55 Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 41% 47 % 37 % 33 % 45 % 40 % Somewhat important 43 41 45 50 48 39 Not too important 10 7 12 12 6 14 Not at all important 3 2 5 4 1 7 Don’t know 3 4 1 2 – – Responses to our tracking question among likely voters indicate that support for Proposition 55 (54%) is similar to the level of general support for raising state income taxes on high incomes (59 %). PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 12 Proposition 56 Proposition 56 would increase the cigarette tax by $2.00 per pack to fund health care, tobacco use prevention, and law enforcement. Previous cigarette tax measures fell short of the simple majority needed to pass in November 2006 (Proposition 86: 48.3% yes ) and June 2012 (Proposition 29: 49.8% yes ). When r ead the Proposition 56 ballot title and label, 59 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 3 6 percent would vote no, and 5 percent are undecided. There is majority support among Democratic and independent likely voters, while Republicans are more divided. There is majority support across regions , except in the Inland Empire. More than 55 percent of likely voters across age, education, and income groups would vote yes . Women (63% ) are somewhat more likely to be in favor than men (5 5%), and Latinos ( 76%) and members of other racial/ethnic groups (6 8% ) are more likely than whites (5 2% ) to support Proposition 56. “Proposition 56 is called the ‘Cigarette Tax to Fund Healthcare, Tobacco Use Prevention, Research, and Law Enforcement. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 56?” * Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 59% 36 % 5 % Party Democrats 76 18 5 Republicans 44 53 3 Independents 58 37 5 Region Central Valley 55 41 4 San Francisco Bay Area 62 31 7 Los Angeles 65 31 4 Orange/San Diego 57 37 6 Inland Empire 47 51 1 Income Under $40,000 58 37 5 $40,000 to $80,000 60 37 4 $80,000 or more 61 33 6 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 25. Forty -three percent of likely voters call the outcome of Proposition 56 very important. Across parties , Democrats are most likely to hold this view . Th ose who would vote yes are more likely than those who would vote no on Proposition 56 to call the outcome very important to them ( 50% to 3 5% ). “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 56?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Vote on Proposition 56 Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 43% 50 % 41 % 34 % 50 % 35 % Somewhat important 37 32 36 43 38 34 Not too important 14 12 15 19 11 20 Not at all important 5 4 7 4 2 11 Don’t know 2 2 2 1 – – R esponse s to our tracking question among likely voters indicate that support for Proposition 56 ( 59 %) is similar to the level of general support for increasing the state taxes on the purchase of cigarettes (6 4% ). PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 13 Proposition 64 Proposition 64 would legalize marijuana under state law for use by adults age 21 or older and impose state taxes on sales and cultivation. A measure that would legalize marijuana failed six years ago (Proposition 19: 46.5% yes). When read the Proposition 64 ballot title and label, 60 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 36 percent would vote no, and 4 percent are undecided. Majorities of Democratic and independent likely voters support Proposition 64 , while Republicans are more divided (46% yes, 52% no) . Support is above half in all regions. W hile just over half of Latin os would vote yes, support among whites and other racial/ethnic groups is slightly higher . Support is highest among younger likely voters (7 4% age 18 to 34 ), but majorities of older likely voters also favor it (59% age 35 to 54, 54% 55 and older). Support is much higher among those who say they have tried marijuana than among those who have never tried it ( 70% to 48 %). “Proposition 64 is called the ‘Marijuana Legalization. Initiative Statute.’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Pr oposition 64?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 60% 36 % 4 % Party Democrats 65 29 6 Republicans 46 52 2 Independents 64 32 4 Region Central Valley 55 42 3 San Francisco Bay Area 65 31 3 Los Angeles 57 37 6 Orange/San Diego 60 38 2 Inland Empire 55 37 7 Race/Ethnicity Latinos 54 38 8 Whites 62 35 3 Other groups 61 35 4 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 26. Fifty percent of likely voters say the outcome of Proposition 64 is very important to them —this share is somewhat higher than the shares expressing the same view about Proposition 51 (4 2%), Proposition 55 (4 1% ), and Proposition 56 (4 3% ). Across parties, independents are most likely to hold this view . Those who would vote yes ar e much less likely than those who would vote no on Proposition 56 to call the outcome very important to them (46% to 59 %). “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 64?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Vote on Proposition 64 Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 50% 52 % 46 % 55 % 46 % 59 % Somewhat important 32 28 40 28 40 20 Not too important 12 15 9 13 12 13 Not at all important 4 4 4 4 1 7 Don’t know 1 2 1 1 – – Responses to our tracking question among likely voters indicate that support for Proposition 64 (60 %) is nearly identical to the level of general support for legalizing the use of marijuana (61 %). PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 14 State and National Issues Key Findings  Californians are somewhat more likely to approve of Governor Jerry Brown (55%) than of the state legislature overall (47%). Fifty -two percent of Californians approve of the state legislators representing their assembly and senate districts. (page 15)  A solid majority of Californians (64%) approve of President Barack Obama , but only 29 percent approve of the US Congress. About half of Californians (51%) approve of their representative to the US House . (page 16 )  Half of Californians and 45 percent of likely voters think things in the state are going in the right direction. Forty -eight percent of adults think that the state will have good times financially during the next 12 months . (page 17)  Californians (64%) continue to be satisfied with the way the state’s initiative process is working , although only 13 percent are very sa tisfied. Majorities across party lines say special interest s have a lot of control over the initiative process (69% Republicans, 61% independents, 54% Democrats). A s olid majorit y (59%) agree s that there are too many propositions , while even more (74%) agree that t he state ballot wording is often too complicated and confusing . (page 18)  Solid majorities across party lines thin k that undocumented immigrants living in the U nited States should be allowed to stay in the country legally , if certain requireme nts are met (91% Democrats, 82% independents, 59% Republicans). Only one in four Californians favor building a wall along the entire border with Mexico ; Republicans and Democrats are divided on this issue . (page 19) 55 47 0 20 40 60 80 100 Sep-12 Sep-13Sep-14Sep-15 Sep-16 Percent all adults Governor Brown California Legislature Approval ratings of state elected officials 64 29 0 20 40 60 80 100 Sep-12 Sep-13Sep-14Sep-15Sep-16 Percent all adults President Obama US Congress Approval ratings of federal elected officials 25 34 72 63 0 20 40 60 80 100 California NationwidePercent all adults Favor Oppose Support for building a wall along the entire border with Mexico *September 2016, ABC News/Washington Post poll PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 15 Approval Ratings of State Elected Officials Today, 55 percent of adults and likely voters approve of the way Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California. Approval of the governor was similar in July (54% adults, 53% likely voters) and a year ago (52% adults, 55% likely voters). In our current survey, three in four Democrats approve of Governor Brown, compared to 31 percent of Republicans and 47 percent of independents. Across regions, approval is highe r in the San Francisco Bay Area (63%) than elsewhere (57% Los Angeles, 52% Inland Empire, 51% Central Valley, 48% Orange/San Diego). Solid majorities of Latinos (64%), Asian Americans (61%), and African Americans (6 0% ) approve, while fewer than half of whites (46%) do so. In November, all seats in the California State Assembly and half of the seats in the California State Senate will be up for election. Today, 47 percent of Californians and 42 percent of likely voters approve of how the state l egislature is handling its job. Approval of the legislature was similar in July (45% adults, 42% likely voters) and a year ago (45% adults, 39% likely voters), but it is higher now than it was in September 2014 (37% adults, 32% likely voters), prior to the last statewide general election. A solid majority of Democrats (64%) approve of the legislature today, compared to fewer than half of independents (38%) and only 20 percent of Republicans. Across regions, Central Valley residents (41%) are the leas t likely to approve of the legislature (52% San Francisco Bay Area, 50% Los Angeles, 49% Inland Empire, 47% Orange/San Diego). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of …?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California Approve 55% 75% 31% 47% 55% Disapprove 28 14 58 31 38 Don't know 18 11 11 22 7 the way that the California Legislature is handling its job Approve 47 64 20 38 42 Disapprove 37 24 71 44 48 Don't know 16 13 9 18 9 How do Californians feel about their own state assemblymember and state senator? Fifty -two percent of adults and 49 percent of likely voters approve of the job that their own state legislators are doing. Approval was similar in January (49% adults, 45% lik ely voters), but it is higher today than it was in October 2014 (43% adults, 38% likely voters) , prior to the last statewide general election . Following the partisan trends for overall approval ratings of the state legislature, Democrats (64%) are much mor e likely than independents (41%) and Republicans (36%) to approve of their own state legislators. Residents of Los Angeles (56%), the San Francisco Bay Area (55%), and Orange/San Diego (54%) are slightly more likely than others (48% Central Valley, 47% Inland Empire) to express approval. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that the state legislators representing your assembly and senate districts are doing at this time? ” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Approve 52% 64% 36% 41% 49% Disapprove 32 24 55 40 40 Don't know 15 12 9 19 11 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 16 Approval Ratings of Federal Elected Officials With President Obama approaching the end of his eight years in office , how do Californians feel about his job performance? Sixty -four percent of adults and 54 percent of likely voters approve of the president, similar to July (60 % adults, 56% likely voters) and a year ago (60% adults, 53% likely voters). Eighty -nine percent of Democrats approve of the preside nt, as do a majority of independents (60%). But only 17 percent of Republicans approve. Across racial/ethnic groups, an overwhelming majority of African Americans (89%) approve, along with about three in four Latinos (75%) and Asian Americans (74%), and ha lf of whites (50%) . Majorities across age, education, and income groups approve, with Californians age 18 to 34 (71%), those with no college (74%), and those with annual incomes below $ 40,000 (71%) most likely to approve. Among likely voters supporting Hillary Clinton, 94 percent approve of Barack Obama, while 95 percent of Donald Trump’s supporters disapprove. Nationally, 58 percent of adults approve of the president, according to a September ABC News/Washington Post poll. In November, all 53 of California’s seats in the US House of Representatives and one of California’s seats in the US Senate will be up for election. Today, 29 percent of Californians and 16 percent of likely voters approve of the way the US Congress is han dling its job. Approval of Congress was similar in July (28% adults, 17% likely voters) and prior to the last Congressional elections (24% adults, 16% likely voters in September 2014). Across parties and regions, one in three or fewer approve of Congress. Approval is below half across racial/ethnic, age, education, and income groups, with whites (15%), older Californians (21% age 55 or older), and high -income Californians (17% $80,000 or more) less likely than others to approve. According to a September Gal lup poll, 20 percent of adults nationwide approve. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of …?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president of the United States Approve 64% 89% 17% 60% 54% Disapprove 33 10 80 38 45 Don't know 3 1 3 2 1 the way the US Congress is handling its job Approve 29 25 12 21 16 Disapprove 65 71 83 75 81 Don't know 6 4 5 4 3 Californians (51% adults, 47% likely voters) are much more likely to approve of their representative in the US House than of the Congress overall (29% adults, 16% likely voters). Approval was similar in January (54% adults, 51% likely voters) and prior to the last Congressional elections (48% adults, 47% likely voters in October 2014). Today, Democrats (61%) are more likely to approve than independents (45%) or Republicans (34%). Approval is at 54 percent in the San Francisco Bay Area, and about half in oth er regions (51% Central Valley, 50% Orange/San Diego, 49% Los Angeles, 49% Inland Empire). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the US House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job? All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Approve 51% 61% 34% 45% 47% Disapprove 36 28 59 40 44 Don't know 13 12 8 15 9 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 17 Overall Mood As the November election approaches, Californians are somewhat divided about the direction of the state. Fifty-two percent of all adults and 4 5 percent of likely voters say that things in California are generally going in the right direction. Optimism about the direction of the state was similar in May (51% adults, 45% likely voters) and in September 2015 (48% adu lts, 43% likely voters). Today, a strong majority of Democrats (68%) say things in California are generally going in the right direction, while fewer than half of independents (48%) and fewer than one in five Republicans (17%) hold this positive view . Regi onally, San Francisco Bay Area (58%) and Los Angeles (57%) residents are somewhat more likely tha n those in Orange/San Diego (50%), the Central Valley (47%), and the Inland Empire (46%) to say that the state is headed in the right direction. Across racial/ethnic groups, Asian Americans (71%) and Latinos (61 %) are more optimistic about the direction of the stat e than are African Americans (39 %) and whites (4 2% ). Among likely voters who say they will be voting for Hillary Clinton, 73 percent say the st ate is headed in the right direction. Conversely, among likely voters who say they will be voting for Donald Trump, 90 percent say the state is headed in the wrong direction. In the US Senate election, 64 percent of Kamala Harris supporters say the state i s headed in the right direction , while Loretta Sanchez supporters are more divided when asked how things are going in California ( 46% right direction, 52 % wrong direction). “Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or t he wrong direction?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Right direction 52% 68% 17% 48% 45% Wrong direction 42 27 80 49 52 Don’t know 6 5 3 3 3 When asked about the state’s economic condition , fewer than half of adults (48%) and likely voters (47 %) say that California will have good times financially in the next 12 months. Expectations for good economic times were similar in May (50% adults, 45% likely voters) and in September 2015 (48% adults, 46% likely voters). Today , a solid majority of Democrats (59 %) expect good economic times , but fewer than half of independents (48 %) and about one in four Republicans (28 %) have this expectation . Regionally, economic optimism ranges from 56 percent in Orange/San Diego to 40 percent in the Inland Empire . Among likely voters, Hillary Clinton supporters are more likely to have a positive ec onomic outlook for the state (65 % good times ), while most Donald Trump supporter s have negative expectations (69 % bad times). “Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Good times 48% 59% 28% 48% 47% Bad times 40 32 62 43 42 Don’t know 12 9 10 8 11 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 18 Initiative Process As Californians prepare to vote on 17 state propositions in November , a majority of adults are satisfied with the way the state’s initiative process is working. More than six in ten adults (64 %) and likely voters (61%) are satisfied, although only 13 percent of adults and 12 percent of likely voters say they are very satisfied. In twelve surveys since October 2000, a majority have been satisfied with the initiative process. Notably, while majorities across p arties are satisfied with the initiative process, Republicans (36 %) ar e more likely than Democrats (23 %) to say they are not satisfied with the process. Despite general satisfaction with the initiative system, a majority of Californians (54% adults , 64% likely voters) say that special interests have a lot of control over the state’s initiative process. Majorities have expressed this view when asked this question in eight surveys since 2001. Today, majorities across regions —excluding the Inland Empire —hold this view . Republicans (69%) and independents (61 %) ar e more likely than Democrats (54 %) to say that special interests have a lot of control. A cross racial/ethnic groups, w hites (63%) are the most likely to say special interests have a lot of control, fol lowed by African Americans (52 %), Latinos (47%), and Asian American s (46%). The share of adults saying special interests have a lot of control increases as education increases. Among those who are very satisfied with the initiative process, 54 percent say that special interests have a lot of control. “Overall, how much would you say that the initiative process in California today is controlled by special interests?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind A lot 54% 54% 69% 61% 64% Some 32 35 24 29 29 Not at all 7 7 3 3 4 Don’t know 7 5 4 7 3 How do Californians feel about the number of proposition s on the state ballot? Today, 59 percent of adults and 57 percent of likely voters agree that there are too many propositions on the state ballot. Findings were similar in August 2004 (60% adults, 60% likely voters), when there were 16 propositions on th e November ballot. While a majority of Californians feel th ere are too many propositions, an even larger proportion of adults (74 %) and likely voters (79 %) agree that the wording for citizen s’ initiative s is often too complicated and confusing. Majorities across parties and demographic groups hold this view. Among those who are very satisfied with the initiative process, 58 percent agree that there a re too many propositions and 76 percent agr ee that the wording for citizen s’ initiatives is too complicated. “For the following items, please say if you strongly agre e, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree .” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind There are too many propositions on the state ballot Agree 59% 56% 61% 57% 57% Disagree 33 40 36 40 40 Don't know 8 4 4 3 4 The ballot wording for citizens’ initiatives is often too complicated and confusing for voters to understand what happens if the initiative passes Agree 74 79 78 81 79 Disagree 21 18 21 18 19 Don't know 5 3 1 1 2 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 19 Immigration Policy Immigration, particularly the issue of undocumented immigrants living in the United States, has been a major theme of the presidential race. Eighty -three percent of Californians say that there should be a way for undocumented immigrants to stay in the country legally, if certain requirements are met. Only 15 percent say they should not be allowed to stay legally. Responses were similar in May (83% allowed to stay) , before the California p rimary, and in January (82% allowed to stay), before the presidential nominating co ntests began. Majorities across parties say undocumented immigrants should be allowed to stay, with 37 percent of Republicans saying they should not be allowed to stay . Among likely voters supporting Donald Trump, 52 percent say undocumented immigrants sho uld be allowed to stay and 45 percent say they should not. Ninety -five percent of Hillary Clinton supporters say undocumented immigrants should be allowed to stay. At least three in four across regions and racial/ethnic, age, education, and income groups s ay they should be allowed to stay. “Which comes closer to your view about how to handle undocumented immigrants who are living in the US? There should be a way for them to stay in the country legally, if certain requirements are met or they should not be allowed to stay in this country legally ?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Allowed to stay legally 83% 91% 59% 82% 80% Not allowed to stay legally 15 8 37 16 18 Don't know 2 2 3 2 2 Donald Trump has promised to build a wall along the US border with Mexico if he is elected president. Twenty - five percent of Californians and 34 percent of likely voters favor building a wall along the entire border. Responses were similar in May (26% a dults, 33% likely voters) , before the California primary. Today, a solid majority of Republicans (60%) are in favor, while strong majorities of Democrats (87%) and independents (66%) are opposed. Trump supporters (82%) overwhelmingly favor building a wall, while Clinton supporters (92%) overwhelmingly oppose a wall. Solid majorities across racial/ethnic groups are opposed, with Latinos (88%) and African Americans (79%) most likely to be opposed. At least six in ten are opposed across regions, as are strong majorities across age, education, and income groups. In a September ABC News/Washington Post poll, a dults nationwide ( 34 %) are slightly more likely to favor building a wall than are Californians in our survey (25 %). “All in all, would you favor or oppose building a wall along the entire border with Mexico?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Favor 25% 11% 60% 31% 34% Oppose 72 87 37 66 64 Don't know 3 1 3 3 3 80 34 95 7 52 82 0 20 40 60 80 100 Allow undocumentedimmigrants to stay Build a wall along the border with Mexico Percent Likely votersClinton votersTrump voters Support for immigration policy proposals PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 20 Regional Map PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 21 Methodology The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance from associate survey director Dean Bonner , project manager for this survey, and survey research associates David Kordus and Lunna Lopes. The Californians and Their Government series is supported with funding from The James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle . The PPIC Statewide Survey invites input, comments, and suggestions f rom policy and public opinion experts and from its own advisory committee, but survey methods, questions, and content are determined solely by PPIC’s survey team. Findings in this repor t are based on a survey of 1,702 California adult residents, including 851 interviewed on landline telephones and 85 1 interviewed on cell phones. Interviews took an average of 18 minutes to complete. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights from September 9 –18, 201 6. Landline interviews were conducted using a computer -generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible for selection, and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as six times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Cell phone inte rviews were conducted using a computer- generated random sample of cell phone numbers. All cell phone numbers with California area codes were eligible for selection, and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as eight times to increase the likelih ood of reaching an eligible respondent. Once a cell phone user was reached, it was verified that this person was age 18 or older, a resident of California, and in a safe place to continue the survey (e.g., not driving). Cell phone respondents were offered a small reimbursement to help defray the cost of the call. Cell phone interviews were conducted with adults who have cell phone service only and with those who have both cell phone and landline service in the household. Live landline and cell phone interviews were conducted by Abt SRBI, Inc., in English and Spanish, according to respondents’ preferences. Accent on Languages, Inc., translated new survey questions into Spanish, with assistance from Renatta DeFever. Abt SRBI uses the US Census Bureau’s 2010– 2014 American Community Survey’s (ACS) Public Use Microdata Series for California (with regional coding information from the University of Minnesota’s Integrated Public Use Microdata Series for California) to compare certain demographic characteristics of the survey sample —region, age, gender, race/ethnicity, and education —with the characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the ACS figures. To estimate landline and cell phone service in California, Abt SRBI used 2014 state -level estimates released by the National Center for Health Statistics —which used data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the ACS —and 2015 estimates for the West Census Region in the latest NHIS report. The estimates for C alifornia were then compared against landline and cell phone service reported in this survey. We also used voter registration data from the California Secretary of State to compare the party registration of registered voters in our sample to party registra tion statewide. The landline and cell phone samples were then integrated using a frame integration weight, while sample balancing adjusted for differences across regional, age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, telephone service, and party registration gr oups. The sampling error, taking design effects from weighting into consideration, is ±3. 5 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total unweighted sample of 1,70 2 adults. This means that 95 times out PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 22 of 100, the results will be within 3. 5 perc entage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for unweighted subgroups is larger: for the 1, 350 registered voters, the sampling error is ±4. 0 percent; for the 1, 055 likely voters, it is ±4. 5 percent. S ampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. We present results for five geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 perce nt of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” inclu des Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, “Inland Empire” refers to Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, and “Orange/San Diego” refers to Orange and San Diego Counties. Residents of other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes for these less populous areas are not large enough to report separately. We present sp ecific results for non -Hispanic whites, who account for 43 percent of the state’s adult population, and also for Latinos, who account for about a third of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest- growing voter groups. We also present results for non-Hispanic Asians, who make up about 15 percent of the state’s adult population, and non -Hispanic blacks, who comprise about 6 percent. Results for other racial/ethnic groups —such as Native Americans —are included in the results reported for a ll adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes are not large enough for separate analysis. We compare the opinions of those who report they are registered Democrats, registered Republicans, and decline -to -state or independent voters; the results for those who say they are registered to vote in other parties are not large enough for separate analysis. We also analyze the responses of likely voters —so designated per their responses to voter registration survey questions, previous election p articipation, and current interest in politics. The percentages presented in the report tables and in the questionnaire may not add to 100 due to rounding. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey results to those in our earlier surveys and to those in national surveys by ABC News/Washington Post and Gallup . Additional details about our methodology can be found at www.ppic.org/content/other/SurveyMethodology.pdf and are available upon request through surveys@ppic.org . PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 23 Questionnaire and Results CALIFORNIANS AND THE IR GOVERNMENT September 9–18 , 2016 1,702 California Adult Residents: English, Spanish MARGIN OF ERROR ± 3.5% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE P ERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100 D UE TO ROUNDING First, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California? 55% approve 28 disapprove 18 don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job? 47% approve 37 disapprove 16 don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that the state legislators representing your assembly and senate districts are doing at this time? 52% approve 32 disapprove 15 don’t know Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 52% right direction 42 wrong direction 6 don’t know Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 48% good times 40 bad times 12 don’t know Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote in California? 62% yes [ask Q6a] 38 no [skip to Q 7b] 6a. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or are you registered as a decline-to -state or independent voter? 43% Democrat [ask Q7] 28 Republican [skip to Q7a] 5 another party (specify) [skip to Q8] 24 independent [skip to Q7b] PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 24 Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 60% strong 38 not very strong 1 don’t know [skip to Q8 ] 7a. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 60% strong 37 not very strong 3 don’t know [skip to Q8 ] 7 b. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party? 23% Republican Party 49 Democratic Party 19 neither (volunteered) 9 don’t know [likely voters only] If the November 8 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for: [rotate] (1) the Democratic ticket of Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, (2) the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence, (3) the Libertarian ticket of Gary Johnson and Bill Weld, [or] (4) the Green Party ticket of Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka? 47% Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine 31 Donald Trump and Mike Pence 10 Gary Johnson and Bill Weld 5 Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka 2 someone else (specify) 2 would not vote for president (volunteered) 4 don’t know [likely voters only] In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for US president in 2016? 42% satisfied 56 not satisfied 1 both (volunteered) – don’t know [likely voters only] How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2016 presidential election —very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 61% very closely 33 fairly closely 5 not too closely 1 not at all closely – don’t know [likely voters only] Next, there will be a series of presidential debates leading up to the November 8th election. Which one issue would you most like to hear the presidential candidates talk about during the presidential deba tes? [code, don’t read] 30% jobs, economy 16 immigration, illegal immigration 8 foreign policy in general 7 terrorism, Islamic State, national security 4 candidate issues, government in general, partisanship, ethics, corruption 3 education, schools, teachers 3 health care, health costs, Obamacare 2 abortion 2 environment, pollution, global warming 2 federal budget, deficit spending, deficit 2 race relations, racial and ethnic issues 14 other (specify) 7 don’t know [question 12 not as ked] [likely voters only] How interested, if at all, are you in the upcoming presidential debates: very interested, somewhat interested, not so interested or not at all interested? 62% very interested 28 somewhat interested 6 not so interested 4 not at all interested – don’t know PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 25 [likely voters only] If the November 8 election for the US Senate were being held today, would you vote for: [rotate] (1) Kamala Harris, a Democrat [or] (2) Loretta Sanchez, a Democrat? 32% Kamala Harris, a Democrat 25 Loretta Sanchez, a Democrat 24 neither/would not vote for U S senator (volunteered) 19 don’t know [likely voters only] In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for US Senate in 2016? 48% satisfied 35 not satisfied 1 both (volunteered) 16 don’t know Next, we have a few questions to ask you about some of the propositions on the November ballot. [likely voters only] Proposition 51 is called the “School Bonds. Funding for K –12 School and Community College Facilities. Initiative Statute .” It authorizes $9 billion in general obligation bonds for new construction and modernization of K –12 public school facilities, charter schools and vocational education facilities, and California Community C olleges facilities. The fiscal impact is state costs of about $17.6 billion to pay off both the principal of $9 billion and interest of $8.6 billion on the bonds with payments of about $500 million per year for 35 years. If the election were held today, wo uld you vote yes or no on Proposition 51? 47% yes 43 no 10 don’t know [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 51—is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 42% very important 40 somewhat important 11 not too important 4 not at all important 3 don’t know [likely voters only] Proposition 55 is called the “Tax Extension to Fund Education and Healthcare. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.” It extends by 12 years the temporary personal income tax increases enacted in 2012 on earnings over $250,000, with revenues allocated to K –12 schools, California Community Colleges, and, in certain years, healthcare. The fi scal impacts are increased state revenues of $4 to $9 billion annually from 2019 through 2030—depending on the economy and stock market —and increased funding for schools, community colleges, health care for low-income people, budget reserves, and debt payments. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 55? 54% yes 38 no 8 don’t know [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 55—is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 41% very important 43 somewhat important 10 not too important 3 not at all important 3 don’t know [likely voters only] Proposition 56 is called the Cigarette Tax to Fund Healthcare, Tobacco Use Prevention, Research, and Law Enforcement. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.” It i ncreases the cigarette tax by $2.00 per pack, with an equivalent increase on other tobacco products and electronic cigarettes containing nicotine. The fiscal impacts are additional net state revenue of $1 to $1.4 billion in the next fiscal year, with potentially lower revenues in future years. This revenue would be used primarily to augment spending on health care for low - income Californians. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 56? 59% yes 36 no 5 don’t know PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 26 [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 56—is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 43% very important 37 somewhat important 14 not too important 5 not at all important 2 don’t know [likely voters only] Proposition 64 is called the “Marijuana Legalization. Initiative Statute.” It legalizes marijuana under state law, for use by adults 21 or older and imposes state taxes on sales and cultivation. It also provides for industry licensing and establishes standards for marijuana products and allows local regulation and taxation. The fiscal impacts are additional tax revenues ranging from high hundreds of millions of dollars to over $1 billion a nnually, mostly dedicated to specific purposes and reduced criminal justice costs of tens of millions of dollars annually. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 64? 60% yes 36 no 4 don’t know [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 64—is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 50% very important 32 somewhat important 12 not too important 4 not at all important 1 don’t know On another topic, California uses the direct initiative process, which enables voters to bypass the legislature and have issues put on the ballot — as state propositions—for voter approval or rejection. Generally speaking, would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, or not satisfied with the way the initiative process is working in California today? 13% very satisfied 51 somewhat satisfied 27 not satisfied 9 don’t know Overall, how much would you say that the initiative process in California t oday is controlled by special interests—a lot, some, or not at all? 54% a lot 32 some 7 not at all 7 don’t know For the following items, please say if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree. [rotate questions 26 and 27] There are too many propositions on the state ballot . 24% strongly agree 35 somewhat agree 22 somewhat disagree 11 strongly disagree 8 don’t know The ballot wording for citizens’ initiatives is often too complicated and confusing for voters to understand what happens if the initiative passes . 38% strongly agree 36 somewhat agree 14 somewhat disagree 7 strongly disagree 5 don’t know For each of the following, please say if you favor or oppose the proposal. [rotate 28 and 29] Do you favor o r oppose raising the top rate of the state income tax paid by the wealthiest Californians? 64% favor 33 oppose 4 don’t know PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 27 Do you favor or oppose increasing state taxes on the purchase of cigarettes? 68% favor 29 oppose 2 don’t know Next, If the state ballot had a bond measure to pay for school construction projects, would you vote yes or no? 74% yes 21 no 5 don’t know On another topic, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president of the United States? 64% approve 33 disapprove 3 don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the US Congress is handling its job? 29% approve 65 disapprove 6 don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the US House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job? 51% approve 36 disapprove 13 don’t know Changing topics, Which comes closer to your view about how to ha ndle undocumented immigrants who are living in the US? [rotate] (1 ) There should be a way for them to stay in the country legally, if certain requirements are met [or] (2 ) They should not be allowed to stay in this country legally. 83% allowed to stay legally 15 not allowed to stay legally 2 don’t know All in all, would you favor or oppose building a wall along the entire border with Mexico? 25% favor 72 oppose 3 don’t know On another topic, Next, in general, do you think the use of marijuana shoul d be legal, or not? 56% yes, legal 42 no, not legal 2 don’t know 36a. Keeping in mind that all of your answers in the survey are confidential, h ave you ever tried marijuana? (if yes, ask: have you used marijuana in the last 12 months?) 22% yes have tried marijuana, used in the past year 24 yes, have tried marijuana, not in the past year 54 no, have not tried marijuana 1 don’t know Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 13% very liberal 19 somewhat liberal 28 middle -of-the -road 25 somewhat conservative 12 very conservative 3 don’t know Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics —a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 27% great deal 36 fair amount 30 only a little 7 none – don’t know [d1–18: demographic questions] PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect Angela Glover Blackwell President and CEO PolicyLink Mollyann Brodie Senior Vice President Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director B ill Lane Center for the American West Stanford University Jon Cohen Vice President of Survey Research SurveyMonkey Joshua J. Dyck Co-Director Center for Public Opinion University of Massachusetts, Lowell Russell Hancock President and CEO Joint Venture Sil icon Valley Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Professor Sol Price School of Public Policy University of Southern California Robert Lapsley President California Business Roundtable Carol S. Larson President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Sonja Petek Fiscal and Policy Analyst California Legislative Analyst’s Office Lisa Pitney Vice President of Government Relations The Walt Disney Company Mindy Romero Founder and Director California Civic Engag ement Project at the UC Davis Center for Regional Change Robert K. Ross, MD President and CEO The California Endowment Most Reverend Jaime Soto Bishop of Sacramento Roman Catholic Diocese of Sacramento Carol Whiteside Principal California Strategies The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PPIC BOARD OF DIRECTORS Mas Masumoto, Chair Author and Farmer Mark Baldassare President and CEO Public Policy Institute of California Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect María Blanco Executive Director Undocumented Student Legal Services Center University of California Office of the President Louise Henry Bryson Chair Emerita, Board of Trustees J. Paul Getty Trust A. Marisa Chun Partner McDermott Will & Emery LLP Chet Hewitt President and CEO Sierra Health Foundation Phil Isenberg Former Chair Delta Stewardship Council Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Steven A. Merksamer Senior Partner Nielsen, Merksamer, Parrinello, Gross & Leoni, LLP Gerald L. Parsky Chairman Aurora Capital Group Kim Polese Chairman ClearStreet, Inc. Gaddi H. Vasquez Senior Vice President, Government Affairs Edison International Southern California Edison Public Policy Institute of California 500 Washington Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, CA 94111 T: 415.291.4400 F: 415.291.4401 PPIC.ORG PPIC Sacramento Center Senator Office Building 1121 L Street, Suite 801 Sacramento, C A 95814 T: 916.440.1120 F: 916.440.1121" } ["___content":protected]=> string(102) "

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" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(113) "https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2016/s_916mbs/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(9026) ["ID"]=> int(9026) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:43:09" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(4581) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(8) "S 916MBS" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(8) "s_916mbs" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(12) "S_916MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "689208" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(75260) "PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 Californians & Their Government Mark Baldassare Dean Bonner David Kordus Lunna Lopes CONTENTS Press Release 3 November 2016 Election 6 State and National Issues 14 Regional Map 20 Methodology 21 Questionnaire and Results 23 Supported with funding from The James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle The PPIC Statewide Survey provides a voice for the public and likely voters— informing policymakers, encouraging discussion, and raising awareness on critical issues of the day. © 2016 Public Policy Institute of California The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in Ca lifornia through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. PPIC is a public charity. It does not take or support positions on any ballot measures or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political part ies or candidates for public office. Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source. Research publications reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or of the staff, officers, advisory councils, or board of directors of the Public Policy Institute of California. PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 3 CONTACT Linda Strean 415 -291 -4412 Serina Correa 415 -291 -4417 News Release EMBARGOED : Do not publish or broadcast until 9:00 p.m. PDT on Wednesday, September 21 , 2016. Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: www.ppic.org/main/pressreleaseindex.asp PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THE IR GOVERNMENT Clinton Has Big Lead Amid Strong Interest in Debates HARRIS AHEAD IN SENATE RACE —MAJORITIES FAVOR MARIJUANA MEASURE, TAXES ON CIGARETTES AND HIGH EARN INGS SAN FRANCISCO, September 21, 2016— California’s likely voters favor Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by a wide margin, and most say they are very interested in the upcoming presidential debates. When likely vo ters are asked what they would like to hear the candidates talk about, they are more likely to name jobs and the economy than any other issue. These are among the top findings of a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of Californ ia (PPIC), with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. Clinton leads Trump by 16 points (47% to 31%) among California likely voters. Her lead was 16 points in July (46 % Clinton, 30% Trump) , when the survey did not include the names of the candidates’ r unning mates, Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Mike Pence. The Libertarian ticket, Gary Johnson and Bill Weld, has 10 percent support among likely voters, and the Green Party’s Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka have 5 percent. Clinton leads Trump in all age, education, and income groups. Among other results:  Clinton and Trump have strong majority support in their own parties: 83 percent of Democrats favor Clinton and 73 percent of Republicans favor Trump. Clinton leads slightly among independents (40% to 32%).  Men support Clinton over Trump (41% to 30%), and women favor her by an even larger margin (52% to 32%).  Across racial/ethnic groups, whites are divided (39% Clinton, 37% Trump). Clinton leads Trump by large margins among Latinos (62% to 19%) and other ra cial/ethnic groups (59% to 19%). Sample sizes of Asian American and African American likely voters are too small for separate analysis. An overwhelming majority of likely voters (90%) say they are interested in the presidential debates, and 62 percent say they are very interested. Jobs and the economy ranks as the top issue (30%) likely voters would like the candidates to talk about. Immig ration and illegal immigration is a distant second (16%). Democrats (31%), Republicans (30%), and independents (28%) all name jobs and the economy as their top issue. Two other issues were mentioned by 5 percent or more of likely voters: foreign policy (8%) and terrorism and national security (7%). “ Most likely voters have made up their minds in the presidential race , but they are still very interested in the upcoming debates,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO . “Californians across the partisa n divide most want to hear from the presidential candidates about jobs and the economy .” PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 4 Echoing their strong interest in the debates, 61 percent of likely voters say they are following news about the candidates very closely —a higher percentage than in previous presidential races (48% September 2000, 51% September 2004, 52% September 2008, 53% September 2012). While likely voters’ interest in the election is high, their satisfaction with the choice of candidates is low. Only 42 percent are satisfied (64% September 2008, 66% September 2012). A slim majority of Democrats (52%) are satisfied, compared to fewer Republicans (42%) and even fewer independents (28%). Majorities across Parties Favor a Path for Undocumented to Stay Picking up a major theme in the presidential race, the survey asks questions about immigration policy. A strong majority of likely voters (80 %) say that there should be a way for undocumented immigrants to stay in the country legally if certain requirements are met, and just 18 percent say they should not be allowed to stay legally. Majorities across parties say undocumented immigrants should be allowed to stay ( 93% Democrats, 78% independents, 61% Republicans). Among likely voters supporting Trump, 52 percent say undocumented immigrants s hould be allowed to stay and 45 percent say they should not. Among Clinton supporters, 95 percent say these immigrants should be allowed to stay. The survey also asks if a wall should be built along the entire border with Mexico, as Trump has proposed. Am ong likely voters, 34 percent favor the idea and 64 percent are opposed. Most Republicans ( 66% ) are in favor, and most Democrats (90 %) and independents (62% ) are not. Trump supporters overwhelmingly favor building a wall (82%) and Clinton supporters overwhelmingly oppose it (92%). Harris Leads Sanchez, But 24 Percent Say They Won’t Vote for Either In the US Senate race, Kamala Harris leads Loretta Sanchez by 7 points (32% to 25%) among likely voters , with 19 percent undecided. Harris was ahead by 18 points (38 % to 20% ) in July, but the race was closer in May, when Harris led by 8 points ( 34% to 26% ). Today, 24 percent volunteer that they would not vote for either candidate. When this group is excluded, Harris leads by 10 points (4 3% to 33%). Half of Democrats (50%) support Harris, while independents are more divided (30% Harris, 25% Sanchez) and 42 percent of Republicans volunteer that they would not vote in this race. Sanchez leads Harris among Latinos (58% to 16%), while Harris is ahead amon g whites (33% to 17%) and other racial/ethnic groups (46% to 19%). About half of likely voters (48%) are satisfied with their choice of candidates in this election. Democrats (75%) are overwhelmingly satisfied, while far fewer independents (39%) express this view. Just 26 percent of Republicans are satisfied with their candidate choice. “This is an unusual statewide race between two candidates of the same party,” Baldassare said. “Kamala Harris continues to lead , with about one in three supporting her US Senate candidacy. At the same time, many Republicans and independents say they’re still undecided or won’t vote.” Just under Half Support School Bond Initiative The survey asks about four initiatives on the November ballot — all require simple majorities to pass.  Proposition 51. When likely voters are read the ballot title and label, 47 percent would vote yes and 43 percent would vote no on this measure, which would authorize the state to issue $9 billion in bonds to fund construction and modernization of K–12 schools and community college facilities. Support among public school parents (52%) and those with no children in the household (46%) is similar. When asked about the importance of the outcome of the vote on Proposition 51, 42 percent say it is very important. Those who would vote yes are more likely than those would vote no to say the outcome is very important (49% to 34%). PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 5  Proposition 55. A majority of likely voters (54%) say they would vote yes on this measure, which would extend by 12 years the te mporary tax increase on earnings over $250,000 (38% no). Revenue would be allocated to public schools, community colleges, and , in certain years, health care. This tax was enacted as part of Proposition 30 in 2012 and is set to expire in 2018. Asked to ass ess the importance of the outcome on this measure, 41 percent say it is very important to them —those who would vote yes and those who would vote no are similarly likely to hold this view.  Proposition 56. A majority of likely voters (59%) support this measu re to increase the cigarette tax by $2 per pack to fund health care, prevention of tobacco use, and law enforcement (36% no). There is majority support among Democratic and independent voters, while Republicans are more divided. Women (63%) are somewhat more likely than men (55%) to favor Proposition 56. Latinos (76%) and members of other racial/ethnic groups (68%) are more likely than whites (52%) to support it. How important is the outcome on this measure? Very important, according to 43 percent of likely voters. Those who would vote yes are more likely than those who would vote no to say so (50% to 35%).  Proposition 64. A majority of likely voters (60%) would vote yes on this measure to legalize marijuana use under state law by adults 21 and older and tax sales and cultivation (36% no). Most Democratic (65%) and independent (64%) likely voters support the proposition. Republicans are divided ( 46% yes, 52% no). Just over half of Latinos would vote yes, while support among whites and other racial/ethnic groups is slightly higher. Support is higher among those 18 to 34 years old (74%) than among older voters (59% 35 –54, 54% 55 and older). Half of likely voters (50%) say the outcome on Proposition 64 is very important. Those who would vote yes are much less li kely to say the outcome is very important than those who would vote no (46% to 59%). “Californians view the outcome of Proposition 64 as the most important of the four initiatives that we tested,” Baldassare said. “It’s interesting that the opponents of the marijuana legalization initiative are more likely than its proponents to say the outcome is very important to them.” As Californians prepare to vote on 17 state propositions, most likely voters (61%) say they are satisfied with the way the initiative process is working, although just 12 percent say they are very satisfied. Despite their general satisfaction, most (57%) say there are too many propositions on the state ballot. Most (64%) also say special interests have a lot of control over the initiative process. An even larger majority (79%) say the wording for initiatives is often too complicated and confusing. Legislature’s Job Approval Lower Than Brown’s But Better Than in 2014 A majority of likely voters (55%) approve of the way Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor. The legislature fares less well: 42 percent of likely voters approve and 48 percent disapprove of its job performance. But this is a higher rating than the legislature received before the last le gislative election (32% approved in September 2014). Asked to rate their own representatives in the state assembly and senate, about half of likely voters (49% ) approve, a higher share than two years ago (38% October 2014). As the end of President Obama’s second term approaches, 54 percent of California likely voters approve of the way he is doing his job . They give Congress an approval rating of 16 percent—id entical to the rating in September 2014, before the last congressional election. California likely voters today are much more likely to approve of their own representative s in the US House (47%) than of Congress overall. Divided on the State’s Direction The election comes at a time when fewer than half of likely voters (45%) say things in the state are going in the right direction (52% wrong direction), and a similar share (47%) expect California to have good times financially in the next year (42% bad times). Supporters of Clinton are more likely to say California is headed in the right direction (73%) and to expect good times financially (65%). Most Trump supporters say California is headed in the wrong direction (90%) and expect bad economic times in the year ahead (69%). PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 6 November 2016 Election Key Findings Hillary Clinton continues to lead Donald Trump by a wide margin (47 % to 31%) in the presidential race . A majority of likely voters are not satisfied with their choice of candidates . Six in ten are very interested in the upcoming presidential debate s, and just under half would most like to hear the candidates talk about jobs and the econo my or immigration . (page s 8, 9 ) Kamala Harris leads Loretta Sanchez in the US Senate race (32 % to 25%), with about four in ten likely voters undecided (19 %) or saying the y will not vote for US senator (2 4% ). (page 9) Forty -seven percent of likely voters would vote yes on Proposition 51 (school bond to fund construction projects), 4 3 percent would vote no, and 10 percent are unsure. Forty -two percent of likely voters say t he o utcome of the vote on Proposition 51 is very important. (page 10) Fifty -four per cent of likely voters would vote yes on Proposition 55 (tax extension on high incomes ), 38 percent would vote no, and 8 percent are unsure. Forty -one percent of likely voters say the outcome of the vote on Proposition 55 is very important . (page 11) Fifty -nine percent of likely voters would vote yes on Proposition 56 ( cigarette tax increase ), and 36 percent would vote no. Forty -three percent of likely voters say the outcome of the vote on Proposition 56 is very important. (page 12) Sixty percent of l ikely voters would vote yes on Proposition 64 (legalizing marijuana), and 36 percent would vote no. Fifty percent of likely voters say the outco me of the vote on Proposition 64 is very important. (page 13) 30 16 87 0 20 40 60 80 Jobs, economy Immigration, illegal immigration Foreign policy in general Terrorism, nationalsecurity Percent likely voters Issue you would most like to hear candidates talk about during presidential debates 38 32 20 25 28 24 14 19 0 20 40 60 80 July September Percent likely voters Kamala Harris Loretta Sanchez Would not vote Don't know US Senate race 47 54 59 60 0 20 40 60 80 Prop 51: School bond Prop 55: Tax extensionto fund education Prop 56: Cigarette tax Prop 64: Marijuana legalization Percent likely voters Support for some key propositions PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 7 Presidential Election As the presidential election enters the fall season, California likely voters favor Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by 16 points (47% to 31%). Clinton’s lead was also 16 points in the July PPIC Survey (46% Clinton, 30 % Trump) , when we were not including the vice presidential running mates. Today, Clinton has strong support among Democrats (83%) , Trump has strong support among Republicans (73%), and Clinton leads slightly among independents (40% to 32%). Clinton ’s lead is wider among women (52% to 32%) than among men (41% to 30%) . Clinton leads Trump by larger margins among Latinos and other racial/ethnic groups (sample sizes for Asian American and African American likely voters are too small for separate analysis), while the race is c lose among whites. Clinton is ahead of Trump in all age, education, and income groups. She leads by wide margins in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area , while the ra ce is close in Orange/San Diego, the Inland Empire, and the Central Valley. “If the November 8 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for: the Democratic ticket of Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Libertarian ticket of Gary Johnson and Bill Weld, or the G reen P arty ticket of Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka?” Likely voters only Clinton- Kaine Trump- Pence Johnson- Weld Stein- Baraka Someone else (volunteered) Would not vote for president (volunteered) Don’t know All likely voters 47% 31 % 10 % 5 % 2 % 2 % 4 % Party Democrats 83 3 3 5 1 1 5 Republicans 10 73 7 1 3 2 4 Independents 40 32 16 6 – 3 3 Gender Men 41 30 13 7 1 2 5 Women 52 32 6 2 2 2 4 Race/Ethnicity Latinos 62 19 5 8 1 1 4 Whites 39 37 10 4 2 2 5 Other groups 59 19 13 3 – 3 2 About four in ten likely voters (42%) are satisfied with their choices of presidential candidates—similar to the last time we asked this question in May, shortly before the California primary (42%). However, satisfaction levels today are far lower than th ey were four or eight years ago (66% September 2012, 64% September 2008). Today, half of Democrats (52%), fewer Republicans (42%), and even fewer independents (28%) are satisfied. Satisfaction is lower among those who describe themselves as political moder ates (29%) than among liberals (42%) or conservatives (50%). Satisfaction is below 50 percent among whites (40%) , Latinos (45%), and other racial/ethnic groups (48%). Satisfaction declines as education levels rise (37% college graduates) and increases with age. “In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for US president in 2016?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Age Dem Rep Ind 18 to 34 35 to 54 55 and older Satisfied 42% 52 % 42 % 28 % 28 % 35 % 54 % Not satisfied 56 46 57 69 72 61 45 Both (volunteered) 1 2 1 2 – 3 1 Don’t know – 1 – 1 – – 1 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 8 Presidential Election (continued) The first of three highly anticipated debates between Clinton and Trump will be held on September 26. When asked about the one issue they would most like to hear the candidates talk about in the presidential debates, likely voters are about twice as likely to mention jobs and the e conomy (30%) as immigration and illegal immigration (16%). Two other issues were mentioned by more than 5 percent: foreign policy (8%) and terrorism and national security (7%). Similar shares of Democrats (31%), Republicans (30%), and independents (28%) say that they want to hear the presidential candidates talk about jobs and the economy. Trump supporters (34%) and Clinton supporters (31%) are about equally likely to mention jobs and the economy, while more Trump supporters (24%) want to hear about immigration and illegal immigration (15% Clinton supporters ). Nine in ten California likely voters say they are interested in the upcoming presidential debates , and about six in ten say they are very interested. Majorities of Republicans (66%), Democrats (58%), and independents (64%) say they are very interested in the upcoming presidential debates. However, Trump supporters (71%) are more likely than Clinton supporters (60%) to say they are very interested. T he p roportio n who say they are very interested in the upcoming presidential debates rises slightly with age (64% for 55 and older), while it is similarly high among renters and homeowners and across education and income levels . About six in ten whites (64%), L atinos (57%), and other racial/ethnic groups (61%) say they are very interested in the upcoming presidential debates. “How interested, if at all, are you in the upcoming presidential debates: very interested, somewhat interested, not so interested, or no t at all interested?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Age Dem Rep Ind 18 to 34 35 to 54 55 and older Very interested 62% 58 % 66 % 64 % 57 % 61 % 64 % Somewhat interested 28 32 28 22 33 29 25 Not so interested 6 8 2 8 8 6 5 Not at all interested 4 2 5 6 2 4 5 About six in ten likely voters say they are very closely following the news about presidential candidates. While the current findings reflect an increase from our polling before the California primary in June and the national party conventions this summer, most likely voters have been very closely following the news about presidential candidates since March . Majorities across parties say they are following the news about the presidential candidates very closely (66% Republicans, 57% Democrats, 57% independents), as are Trump supporters (69%) and Clinton supporters (58%). The proportion who are very closely following the news about the presidential candidates is higher among older adults (66% 55 and older), college graduates (64%), homeowners (64%), and higher-inc ome adults (67% for $80,000 or more) . It is higher among whites (64%) than among Latinos (56%) and other racial/ethnic groups (54%). The 2016 presidential election is attracting a higher level of interest compared to previous election cycles (48% September 2000 , 51% Se ptember 2004, 52% Septem ber 2008, 53% September 2012, 61 % today). 4552 57 555361 0 20 40 60 80 Jan-16 Mar-16 Apr-16May-16 Jul-16Sep-16 Percent likely votersVery closely following news Attention to news about presidential candidates PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 9 US Senate Election In the two-person, one -party California US Senate election, likely voters prefer Kamala Harris over Loretta Sanchez by 7 points (32% to 25%), compared to a n 18 point margin in the July PPIC Statewide Survey ( 38% to 2 0% ). In May, the race was closer , with Harris leading Sanchez by 8 points (34% to 26%). Today, excluding the 24 percent who volunteer they would not vote for either Democratic candidate, Harris leads Sanchez by 10 points (43 % to 33%) . Harris has strong support among Democrats (50%), while independents are more divided, and 42 percent of Republicans volunteer they will not vote in the US Senate race. Sanchez lea ds Harris among Latinos, while Harris leads Sanchez among whites and other racial/ethnic groups . Harris’s support increases with age, education, and income and is similar among men and women. Clinton supporters favor Harris over Sanchez (51% to 28%) , while nearly half of Trump supporters (47%) say they w ill not cast a vote for US s enator. “If the November 8 US Senate election were being held today, would you vote for Kamala Harris, a Democrat , or Loretta Sanchez, a Democrat?” Likely voters only Kamala Harris Loretta Sanchez Would not vote for US senator (volunteered) Don’t know All likely voters 32% 25 % 24 % 19 % Party Democrats 50 30 4 16 Republicans 16 22 42 20 Independents 30 25 27 18 Income Less than $40,000 28 38 10 24 $40,000 to $80,000 32 28 22 17 $80,000 or more 36 17 29 17 Race/Ethnicity Latinos 16 58 11 15 Whites 33 17 29 21 Other groups 46 19 22 13 About half of likely voters (48%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the US Senate election —a 9 point decline since we last asked this question in May, shortly before the California primary (57%). Democrats (75%) are overwhelmingly satisfied , while just under four in ten independents (3 9%) and about one in four Republicans (26%) are satisfied with the ir candidate choices. Satisfaction with candidate choices is much higher among Clinton supporters (72%) than Trump supporters (24%). Latinos (66%) and other racial/ethnic groups (58%) are more likely to express satisfaction than whites (42%). Sa tisfaction is higher in Los Angeles (56%) than in other regions and lowest in the Central Valley (39%). “In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for US Senate in 2016?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Race/Ethnicity Dem Rep Ind Latinos Whites Other groups Satisfied 48% 75 % 26 % 39 % 66 % 42 % 58 % Not satisfied 35 14 57 36 22 40 24 Both (volunteered) 1 1 – 1 1 1 – Don’t know 16 10 17 24 10 17 18 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 10 Proposition 51 Proposition 51 is a citizens’ initiative that would authorize the state to issue $9 billion in bonds to fund construction and modernization of K –12 schools and community college facilities. It is estimated that it would cost $17.6 billion to pay off the pr incipal and interest on the bonds. This measure requires a simple majority to pass. When read the Proposition 51 ballot title and label, 47 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 43 percent would vote no, and 10 percent are undecided. Support fo r Proposition 51 is similar among public school parents (52 %) and those with no children in the household (46%). A solid majority of Democratic likely voters (62 %) would vote yes , while a similar share of Republicans ( 64%) would vote no. Independent likely voters are more lik ely to say they would vote yes (50 %) than no (4 2%). Latino likely voters (63 %) are much more lik ely than whites (41%) to support Proposition 51. Support declines as age increases and is far higher among renters than homeowners (64% to 39%). “Proposition 51 is called the ‘ School Bonds. Funding for K–12 School and Community College Facilities. Initiative Statute. ’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 51?” * Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 47% 43 % 10 % Public school parents 52 34 13 Party Democrats 62 26 12 Republicans 29 64 6 Independents 50 42 8 Region Central Valley 38 53 9 San Francisco Bay Area 54 34 12 Los Angeles 51 40 9 Orange/San Diego 47 44 10 Inland Empire 41 49 10 Income Under $40,000 57 36 7 $40,000 to $80,000 45 44 11 $80,000 or more 48 42 11 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 25. Forty -two percent of likely voters say the outcome of Proposition 51 is very important to them . Across parties, th is perception is lowest among independents. T hose who would vote yes on Proposition 51 are more likely than those who would vote no to say the outcome is very important to them . “ How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 51 ?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Vote on Proposition 51 Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 42% 45 % 40 % 34 % 49 % 34 % Somewhat important 40 38 41 43 39 42 Not too important 11 10 11 13 9 16 Not at all important 4 3 6 6 2 7 Don’t know 3 4 2 5 1 1 The response to our tracking question among likely voters indicates that support for Proposition 51 (47%) is lower than the level of general support for a state school bond (6 1% ). PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 11 Proposition 55 Proposition 55 is a citizens’ initiative that would extend by 12 years the temporary tax increase on earnings over $250,000 that was enacted in 2012 as part of Proposition 30 and is set to expire in 2018. Revenue from the tax increase would be allocated to K –12 schools, community colleges, and —in certain years —health care. It requires a simple majority to pass. When read the Proposition 55 ballot title and label, 54 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 3 8 percent would vote no, and 8 percent ar e undecided. Proposition 55 has overwhelming support among Democratic likely voters, while half of independents would vote yes and a solid majority of Republicans would vote no. About six in ten public school parents say they would vote yes. Latinos (68% ) and members of other racial/ethnic groups (6 6% ) are much more likely than whites (48 %) to support Proposition 55. S upport is higher among younger likely voters and those making less than $40,000 than among older and more affluent likely voters . “Proposition 55 is called the ‘Tax Extension to Fund Education and Healthcare. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 5 5?” * Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 54% 38 % 8 % Public school parents 58 34 7 Party Democrats 78 15 7 Republicans 33 61 6 Independents 51 42 7 Region Central Valley 46 45 9 San Francisco Bay Area 63 28 9 Los Angeles 61 33 6 Orange/San Diego 47 43 10 Inland Empire 42 54 4 Income Under $40,000 68 25 7 $40,000 to $80,000 56 36 8 $80,000 or more 50 41 8 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 25. Forty -one percent of likely voters say the outcome of Proposition 55 is very important to them . Similar shares of those who would vote yes and no hold this opinion Across parties, Democrats are the most likely to say the outcome is very important. “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 55?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Vote on Proposition 55 Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 41% 47 % 37 % 33 % 45 % 40 % Somewhat important 43 41 45 50 48 39 Not too important 10 7 12 12 6 14 Not at all important 3 2 5 4 1 7 Don’t know 3 4 1 2 – – Responses to our tracking question among likely voters indicate that support for Proposition 55 (54%) is similar to the level of general support for raising state income taxes on high incomes (59 %). PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 12 Proposition 56 Proposition 56 would increase the cigarette tax by $2.00 per pack to fund health care, tobacco use prevention, and law enforcement. Previous cigarette tax measures fell short of the simple majority needed to pass in November 2006 (Proposition 86: 48.3% yes ) and June 2012 (Proposition 29: 49.8% yes ). When r ead the Proposition 56 ballot title and label, 59 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 3 6 percent would vote no, and 5 percent are undecided. There is majority support among Democratic and independent likely voters, while Republicans are more divided. There is majority support across regions , except in the Inland Empire. More than 55 percent of likely voters across age, education, and income groups would vote yes . Women (63% ) are somewhat more likely to be in favor than men (5 5%), and Latinos ( 76%) and members of other racial/ethnic groups (6 8% ) are more likely than whites (5 2% ) to support Proposition 56. “Proposition 56 is called the ‘Cigarette Tax to Fund Healthcare, Tobacco Use Prevention, Research, and Law Enforcement. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 56?” * Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 59% 36 % 5 % Party Democrats 76 18 5 Republicans 44 53 3 Independents 58 37 5 Region Central Valley 55 41 4 San Francisco Bay Area 62 31 7 Los Angeles 65 31 4 Orange/San Diego 57 37 6 Inland Empire 47 51 1 Income Under $40,000 58 37 5 $40,000 to $80,000 60 37 4 $80,000 or more 61 33 6 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 25. Forty -three percent of likely voters call the outcome of Proposition 56 very important. Across parties , Democrats are most likely to hold this view . Th ose who would vote yes are more likely than those who would vote no on Proposition 56 to call the outcome very important to them ( 50% to 3 5% ). “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 56?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Vote on Proposition 56 Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 43% 50 % 41 % 34 % 50 % 35 % Somewhat important 37 32 36 43 38 34 Not too important 14 12 15 19 11 20 Not at all important 5 4 7 4 2 11 Don’t know 2 2 2 1 – – R esponse s to our tracking question among likely voters indicate that support for Proposition 56 ( 59 %) is similar to the level of general support for increasing the state taxes on the purchase of cigarettes (6 4% ). PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 13 Proposition 64 Proposition 64 would legalize marijuana under state law for use by adults age 21 or older and impose state taxes on sales and cultivation. A measure that would legalize marijuana failed six years ago (Proposition 19: 46.5% yes). When read the Proposition 64 ballot title and label, 60 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes, 36 percent would vote no, and 4 percent are undecided. Majorities of Democratic and independent likely voters support Proposition 64 , while Republicans are more divided (46% yes, 52% no) . Support is above half in all regions. W hile just over half of Latin os would vote yes, support among whites and other racial/ethnic groups is slightly higher . Support is highest among younger likely voters (7 4% age 18 to 34 ), but majorities of older likely voters also favor it (59% age 35 to 54, 54% 55 and older). Support is much higher among those who say they have tried marijuana than among those who have never tried it ( 70% to 48 %). “Proposition 64 is called the ‘Marijuana Legalization. Initiative Statute.’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Pr oposition 64?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 60% 36 % 4 % Party Democrats 65 29 6 Republicans 46 52 2 Independents 64 32 4 Region Central Valley 55 42 3 San Francisco Bay Area 65 31 3 Los Angeles 57 37 6 Orange/San Diego 60 38 2 Inland Empire 55 37 7 Race/Ethnicity Latinos 54 38 8 Whites 62 35 3 Other groups 61 35 4 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 26. Fifty percent of likely voters say the outcome of Proposition 64 is very important to them —this share is somewhat higher than the shares expressing the same view about Proposition 51 (4 2%), Proposition 55 (4 1% ), and Proposition 56 (4 3% ). Across parties, independents are most likely to hold this view . Those who would vote yes ar e much less likely than those who would vote no on Proposition 56 to call the outcome very important to them (46% to 59 %). “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 64?” Likely voters only All likely voters Party Vote on Proposition 64 Dem Rep Ind Yes No Very important 50% 52 % 46 % 55 % 46 % 59 % Somewhat important 32 28 40 28 40 20 Not too important 12 15 9 13 12 13 Not at all important 4 4 4 4 1 7 Don’t know 1 2 1 1 – – Responses to our tracking question among likely voters indicate that support for Proposition 64 (60 %) is nearly identical to the level of general support for legalizing the use of marijuana (61 %). PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 14 State and National Issues Key Findings  Californians are somewhat more likely to approve of Governor Jerry Brown (55%) than of the state legislature overall (47%). Fifty -two percent of Californians approve of the state legislators representing their assembly and senate districts. (page 15)  A solid majority of Californians (64%) approve of President Barack Obama , but only 29 percent approve of the US Congress. About half of Californians (51%) approve of their representative to the US House . (page 16 )  Half of Californians and 45 percent of likely voters think things in the state are going in the right direction. Forty -eight percent of adults think that the state will have good times financially during the next 12 months . (page 17)  Californians (64%) continue to be satisfied with the way the state’s initiative process is working , although only 13 percent are very sa tisfied. Majorities across party lines say special interest s have a lot of control over the initiative process (69% Republicans, 61% independents, 54% Democrats). A s olid majorit y (59%) agree s that there are too many propositions , while even more (74%) agree that t he state ballot wording is often too complicated and confusing . (page 18)  Solid majorities across party lines thin k that undocumented immigrants living in the U nited States should be allowed to stay in the country legally , if certain requireme nts are met (91% Democrats, 82% independents, 59% Republicans). Only one in four Californians favor building a wall along the entire border with Mexico ; Republicans and Democrats are divided on this issue . (page 19) 55 47 0 20 40 60 80 100 Sep-12 Sep-13Sep-14Sep-15 Sep-16 Percent all adults Governor Brown California Legislature Approval ratings of state elected officials 64 29 0 20 40 60 80 100 Sep-12 Sep-13Sep-14Sep-15Sep-16 Percent all adults President Obama US Congress Approval ratings of federal elected officials 25 34 72 63 0 20 40 60 80 100 California NationwidePercent all adults Favor Oppose Support for building a wall along the entire border with Mexico *September 2016, ABC News/Washington Post poll PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 15 Approval Ratings of State Elected Officials Today, 55 percent of adults and likely voters approve of the way Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California. Approval of the governor was similar in July (54% adults, 53% likely voters) and a year ago (52% adults, 55% likely voters). In our current survey, three in four Democrats approve of Governor Brown, compared to 31 percent of Republicans and 47 percent of independents. Across regions, approval is highe r in the San Francisco Bay Area (63%) than elsewhere (57% Los Angeles, 52% Inland Empire, 51% Central Valley, 48% Orange/San Diego). Solid majorities of Latinos (64%), Asian Americans (61%), and African Americans (6 0% ) approve, while fewer than half of whites (46%) do so. In November, all seats in the California State Assembly and half of the seats in the California State Senate will be up for election. Today, 47 percent of Californians and 42 percent of likely voters approve of how the state l egislature is handling its job. Approval of the legislature was similar in July (45% adults, 42% likely voters) and a year ago (45% adults, 39% likely voters), but it is higher now than it was in September 2014 (37% adults, 32% likely voters), prior to the last statewide general election. A solid majority of Democrats (64%) approve of the legislature today, compared to fewer than half of independents (38%) and only 20 percent of Republicans. Across regions, Central Valley residents (41%) are the leas t likely to approve of the legislature (52% San Francisco Bay Area, 50% Los Angeles, 49% Inland Empire, 47% Orange/San Diego). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of …?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California Approve 55% 75% 31% 47% 55% Disapprove 28 14 58 31 38 Don't know 18 11 11 22 7 the way that the California Legislature is handling its job Approve 47 64 20 38 42 Disapprove 37 24 71 44 48 Don't know 16 13 9 18 9 How do Californians feel about their own state assemblymember and state senator? Fifty -two percent of adults and 49 percent of likely voters approve of the job that their own state legislators are doing. Approval was similar in January (49% adults, 45% lik ely voters), but it is higher today than it was in October 2014 (43% adults, 38% likely voters) , prior to the last statewide general election . Following the partisan trends for overall approval ratings of the state legislature, Democrats (64%) are much mor e likely than independents (41%) and Republicans (36%) to approve of their own state legislators. Residents of Los Angeles (56%), the San Francisco Bay Area (55%), and Orange/San Diego (54%) are slightly more likely than others (48% Central Valley, 47% Inland Empire) to express approval. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that the state legislators representing your assembly and senate districts are doing at this time? ” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Approve 52% 64% 36% 41% 49% Disapprove 32 24 55 40 40 Don't know 15 12 9 19 11 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 16 Approval Ratings of Federal Elected Officials With President Obama approaching the end of his eight years in office , how do Californians feel about his job performance? Sixty -four percent of adults and 54 percent of likely voters approve of the president, similar to July (60 % adults, 56% likely voters) and a year ago (60% adults, 53% likely voters). Eighty -nine percent of Democrats approve of the preside nt, as do a majority of independents (60%). But only 17 percent of Republicans approve. Across racial/ethnic groups, an overwhelming majority of African Americans (89%) approve, along with about three in four Latinos (75%) and Asian Americans (74%), and ha lf of whites (50%) . Majorities across age, education, and income groups approve, with Californians age 18 to 34 (71%), those with no college (74%), and those with annual incomes below $ 40,000 (71%) most likely to approve. Among likely voters supporting Hillary Clinton, 94 percent approve of Barack Obama, while 95 percent of Donald Trump’s supporters disapprove. Nationally, 58 percent of adults approve of the president, according to a September ABC News/Washington Post poll. In November, all 53 of California’s seats in the US House of Representatives and one of California’s seats in the US Senate will be up for election. Today, 29 percent of Californians and 16 percent of likely voters approve of the way the US Congress is han dling its job. Approval of Congress was similar in July (28% adults, 17% likely voters) and prior to the last Congressional elections (24% adults, 16% likely voters in September 2014). Across parties and regions, one in three or fewer approve of Congress. Approval is below half across racial/ethnic, age, education, and income groups, with whites (15%), older Californians (21% age 55 or older), and high -income Californians (17% $80,000 or more) less likely than others to approve. According to a September Gal lup poll, 20 percent of adults nationwide approve. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of …?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president of the United States Approve 64% 89% 17% 60% 54% Disapprove 33 10 80 38 45 Don't know 3 1 3 2 1 the way the US Congress is handling its job Approve 29 25 12 21 16 Disapprove 65 71 83 75 81 Don't know 6 4 5 4 3 Californians (51% adults, 47% likely voters) are much more likely to approve of their representative in the US House than of the Congress overall (29% adults, 16% likely voters). Approval was similar in January (54% adults, 51% likely voters) and prior to the last Congressional elections (48% adults, 47% likely voters in October 2014). Today, Democrats (61%) are more likely to approve than independents (45%) or Republicans (34%). Approval is at 54 percent in the San Francisco Bay Area, and about half in oth er regions (51% Central Valley, 50% Orange/San Diego, 49% Los Angeles, 49% Inland Empire). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the US House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job? All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Approve 51% 61% 34% 45% 47% Disapprove 36 28 59 40 44 Don't know 13 12 8 15 9 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 17 Overall Mood As the November election approaches, Californians are somewhat divided about the direction of the state. Fifty-two percent of all adults and 4 5 percent of likely voters say that things in California are generally going in the right direction. Optimism about the direction of the state was similar in May (51% adults, 45% likely voters) and in September 2015 (48% adu lts, 43% likely voters). Today, a strong majority of Democrats (68%) say things in California are generally going in the right direction, while fewer than half of independents (48%) and fewer than one in five Republicans (17%) hold this positive view . Regi onally, San Francisco Bay Area (58%) and Los Angeles (57%) residents are somewhat more likely tha n those in Orange/San Diego (50%), the Central Valley (47%), and the Inland Empire (46%) to say that the state is headed in the right direction. Across racial/ethnic groups, Asian Americans (71%) and Latinos (61 %) are more optimistic about the direction of the stat e than are African Americans (39 %) and whites (4 2% ). Among likely voters who say they will be voting for Hillary Clinton, 73 percent say the st ate is headed in the right direction. Conversely, among likely voters who say they will be voting for Donald Trump, 90 percent say the state is headed in the wrong direction. In the US Senate election, 64 percent of Kamala Harris supporters say the state i s headed in the right direction , while Loretta Sanchez supporters are more divided when asked how things are going in California ( 46% right direction, 52 % wrong direction). “Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or t he wrong direction?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Right direction 52% 68% 17% 48% 45% Wrong direction 42 27 80 49 52 Don’t know 6 5 3 3 3 When asked about the state’s economic condition , fewer than half of adults (48%) and likely voters (47 %) say that California will have good times financially in the next 12 months. Expectations for good economic times were similar in May (50% adults, 45% likely voters) and in September 2015 (48% adults, 46% likely voters). Today , a solid majority of Democrats (59 %) expect good economic times , but fewer than half of independents (48 %) and about one in four Republicans (28 %) have this expectation . Regionally, economic optimism ranges from 56 percent in Orange/San Diego to 40 percent in the Inland Empire . Among likely voters, Hillary Clinton supporters are more likely to have a positive ec onomic outlook for the state (65 % good times ), while most Donald Trump supporter s have negative expectations (69 % bad times). “Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Good times 48% 59% 28% 48% 47% Bad times 40 32 62 43 42 Don’t know 12 9 10 8 11 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 18 Initiative Process As Californians prepare to vote on 17 state propositions in November , a majority of adults are satisfied with the way the state’s initiative process is working. More than six in ten adults (64 %) and likely voters (61%) are satisfied, although only 13 percent of adults and 12 percent of likely voters say they are very satisfied. In twelve surveys since October 2000, a majority have been satisfied with the initiative process. Notably, while majorities across p arties are satisfied with the initiative process, Republicans (36 %) ar e more likely than Democrats (23 %) to say they are not satisfied with the process. Despite general satisfaction with the initiative system, a majority of Californians (54% adults , 64% likely voters) say that special interests have a lot of control over the state’s initiative process. Majorities have expressed this view when asked this question in eight surveys since 2001. Today, majorities across regions —excluding the Inland Empire —hold this view . Republicans (69%) and independents (61 %) ar e more likely than Democrats (54 %) to say that special interests have a lot of control. A cross racial/ethnic groups, w hites (63%) are the most likely to say special interests have a lot of control, fol lowed by African Americans (52 %), Latinos (47%), and Asian American s (46%). The share of adults saying special interests have a lot of control increases as education increases. Among those who are very satisfied with the initiative process, 54 percent say that special interests have a lot of control. “Overall, how much would you say that the initiative process in California today is controlled by special interests?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind A lot 54% 54% 69% 61% 64% Some 32 35 24 29 29 Not at all 7 7 3 3 4 Don’t know 7 5 4 7 3 How do Californians feel about the number of proposition s on the state ballot? Today, 59 percent of adults and 57 percent of likely voters agree that there are too many propositions on the state ballot. Findings were similar in August 2004 (60% adults, 60% likely voters), when there were 16 propositions on th e November ballot. While a majority of Californians feel th ere are too many propositions, an even larger proportion of adults (74 %) and likely voters (79 %) agree that the wording for citizen s’ initiative s is often too complicated and confusing. Majorities across parties and demographic groups hold this view. Among those who are very satisfied with the initiative process, 58 percent agree that there a re too many propositions and 76 percent agr ee that the wording for citizen s’ initiatives is too complicated. “For the following items, please say if you strongly agre e, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree .” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind There are too many propositions on the state ballot Agree 59% 56% 61% 57% 57% Disagree 33 40 36 40 40 Don't know 8 4 4 3 4 The ballot wording for citizens’ initiatives is often too complicated and confusing for voters to understand what happens if the initiative passes Agree 74 79 78 81 79 Disagree 21 18 21 18 19 Don't know 5 3 1 1 2 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 19 Immigration Policy Immigration, particularly the issue of undocumented immigrants living in the United States, has been a major theme of the presidential race. Eighty -three percent of Californians say that there should be a way for undocumented immigrants to stay in the country legally, if certain requirements are met. Only 15 percent say they should not be allowed to stay legally. Responses were similar in May (83% allowed to stay) , before the California p rimary, and in January (82% allowed to stay), before the presidential nominating co ntests began. Majorities across parties say undocumented immigrants should be allowed to stay, with 37 percent of Republicans saying they should not be allowed to stay . Among likely voters supporting Donald Trump, 52 percent say undocumented immigrants sho uld be allowed to stay and 45 percent say they should not. Ninety -five percent of Hillary Clinton supporters say undocumented immigrants should be allowed to stay. At least three in four across regions and racial/ethnic, age, education, and income groups s ay they should be allowed to stay. “Which comes closer to your view about how to handle undocumented immigrants who are living in the US? There should be a way for them to stay in the country legally, if certain requirements are met or they should not be allowed to stay in this country legally ?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Allowed to stay legally 83% 91% 59% 82% 80% Not allowed to stay legally 15 8 37 16 18 Don't know 2 2 3 2 2 Donald Trump has promised to build a wall along the US border with Mexico if he is elected president. Twenty - five percent of Californians and 34 percent of likely voters favor building a wall along the entire border. Responses were similar in May (26% a dults, 33% likely voters) , before the California primary. Today, a solid majority of Republicans (60%) are in favor, while strong majorities of Democrats (87%) and independents (66%) are opposed. Trump supporters (82%) overwhelmingly favor building a wall, while Clinton supporters (92%) overwhelmingly oppose a wall. Solid majorities across racial/ethnic groups are opposed, with Latinos (88%) and African Americans (79%) most likely to be opposed. At least six in ten are opposed across regions, as are strong majorities across age, education, and income groups. In a September ABC News/Washington Post poll, a dults nationwide ( 34 %) are slightly more likely to favor building a wall than are Californians in our survey (25 %). “All in all, would you favor or oppose building a wall along the entire border with Mexico?” All adults Party Likely voters Dem Rep Ind Favor 25% 11% 60% 31% 34% Oppose 72 87 37 66 64 Don't know 3 1 3 3 3 80 34 95 7 52 82 0 20 40 60 80 100 Allow undocumentedimmigrants to stay Build a wall along the border with Mexico Percent Likely votersClinton votersTrump voters Support for immigration policy proposals PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 20 Regional Map PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 21 Methodology The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance from associate survey director Dean Bonner , project manager for this survey, and survey research associates David Kordus and Lunna Lopes. The Californians and Their Government series is supported with funding from The James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle . The PPIC Statewide Survey invites input, comments, and suggestions f rom policy and public opinion experts and from its own advisory committee, but survey methods, questions, and content are determined solely by PPIC’s survey team. Findings in this repor t are based on a survey of 1,702 California adult residents, including 851 interviewed on landline telephones and 85 1 interviewed on cell phones. Interviews took an average of 18 minutes to complete. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights from September 9 –18, 201 6. Landline interviews were conducted using a computer -generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible for selection, and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as six times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Cell phone inte rviews were conducted using a computer- generated random sample of cell phone numbers. All cell phone numbers with California area codes were eligible for selection, and the sample telephone numbers were called as many as eight times to increase the likelih ood of reaching an eligible respondent. Once a cell phone user was reached, it was verified that this person was age 18 or older, a resident of California, and in a safe place to continue the survey (e.g., not driving). Cell phone respondents were offered a small reimbursement to help defray the cost of the call. Cell phone interviews were conducted with adults who have cell phone service only and with those who have both cell phone and landline service in the household. Live landline and cell phone interviews were conducted by Abt SRBI, Inc., in English and Spanish, according to respondents’ preferences. Accent on Languages, Inc., translated new survey questions into Spanish, with assistance from Renatta DeFever. Abt SRBI uses the US Census Bureau’s 2010– 2014 American Community Survey’s (ACS) Public Use Microdata Series for California (with regional coding information from the University of Minnesota’s Integrated Public Use Microdata Series for California) to compare certain demographic characteristics of the survey sample —region, age, gender, race/ethnicity, and education —with the characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the ACS figures. To estimate landline and cell phone service in California, Abt SRBI used 2014 state -level estimates released by the National Center for Health Statistics —which used data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the ACS —and 2015 estimates for the West Census Region in the latest NHIS report. The estimates for C alifornia were then compared against landline and cell phone service reported in this survey. We also used voter registration data from the California Secretary of State to compare the party registration of registered voters in our sample to party registra tion statewide. The landline and cell phone samples were then integrated using a frame integration weight, while sample balancing adjusted for differences across regional, age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, telephone service, and party registration gr oups. The sampling error, taking design effects from weighting into consideration, is ±3. 5 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total unweighted sample of 1,70 2 adults. This means that 95 times out PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 22 of 100, the results will be within 3. 5 perc entage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for unweighted subgroups is larger: for the 1, 350 registered voters, the sampling error is ±4. 0 percent; for the 1, 055 likely voters, it is ±4. 5 percent. S ampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. We present results for five geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 perce nt of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” inclu des Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, “Inland Empire” refers to Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, and “Orange/San Diego” refers to Orange and San Diego Counties. Residents of other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes for these less populous areas are not large enough to report separately. We present sp ecific results for non -Hispanic whites, who account for 43 percent of the state’s adult population, and also for Latinos, who account for about a third of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest- growing voter groups. We also present results for non-Hispanic Asians, who make up about 15 percent of the state’s adult population, and non -Hispanic blacks, who comprise about 6 percent. Results for other racial/ethnic groups —such as Native Americans —are included in the results reported for a ll adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes are not large enough for separate analysis. We compare the opinions of those who report they are registered Democrats, registered Republicans, and decline -to -state or independent voters; the results for those who say they are registered to vote in other parties are not large enough for separate analysis. We also analyze the responses of likely voters —so designated per their responses to voter registration survey questions, previous election p articipation, and current interest in politics. The percentages presented in the report tables and in the questionnaire may not add to 100 due to rounding. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey results to those in our earlier surveys and to those in national surveys by ABC News/Washington Post and Gallup . Additional details about our methodology can be found at www.ppic.org/content/other/SurveyMethodology.pdf and are available upon request through surveys@ppic.org . PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 23 Questionnaire and Results CALIFORNIANS AND THE IR GOVERNMENT September 9–18 , 2016 1,702 California Adult Residents: English, Spanish MARGIN OF ERROR ± 3.5% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE P ERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100 D UE TO ROUNDING First, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California? 55% approve 28 disapprove 18 don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job? 47% approve 37 disapprove 16 don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that the state legislators representing your assembly and senate districts are doing at this time? 52% approve 32 disapprove 15 don’t know Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 52% right direction 42 wrong direction 6 don’t know Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 48% good times 40 bad times 12 don’t know Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote in California? 62% yes [ask Q6a] 38 no [skip to Q 7b] 6a. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or are you registered as a decline-to -state or independent voter? 43% Democrat [ask Q7] 28 Republican [skip to Q7a] 5 another party (specify) [skip to Q8] 24 independent [skip to Q7b] PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 24 Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 60% strong 38 not very strong 1 don’t know [skip to Q8 ] 7a. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 60% strong 37 not very strong 3 don’t know [skip to Q8 ] 7 b. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party? 23% Republican Party 49 Democratic Party 19 neither (volunteered) 9 don’t know [likely voters only] If the November 8 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for: [rotate] (1) the Democratic ticket of Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, (2) the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence, (3) the Libertarian ticket of Gary Johnson and Bill Weld, [or] (4) the Green Party ticket of Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka? 47% Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine 31 Donald Trump and Mike Pence 10 Gary Johnson and Bill Weld 5 Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka 2 someone else (specify) 2 would not vote for president (volunteered) 4 don’t know [likely voters only] In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for US president in 2016? 42% satisfied 56 not satisfied 1 both (volunteered) – don’t know [likely voters only] How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2016 presidential election —very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 61% very closely 33 fairly closely 5 not too closely 1 not at all closely – don’t know [likely voters only] Next, there will be a series of presidential debates leading up to the November 8th election. Which one issue would you most like to hear the presidential candidates talk about during the presidential deba tes? [code, don’t read] 30% jobs, economy 16 immigration, illegal immigration 8 foreign policy in general 7 terrorism, Islamic State, national security 4 candidate issues, government in general, partisanship, ethics, corruption 3 education, schools, teachers 3 health care, health costs, Obamacare 2 abortion 2 environment, pollution, global warming 2 federal budget, deficit spending, deficit 2 race relations, racial and ethnic issues 14 other (specify) 7 don’t know [question 12 not as ked] [likely voters only] How interested, if at all, are you in the upcoming presidential debates: very interested, somewhat interested, not so interested or not at all interested? 62% very interested 28 somewhat interested 6 not so interested 4 not at all interested – don’t know PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 25 [likely voters only] If the November 8 election for the US Senate were being held today, would you vote for: [rotate] (1) Kamala Harris, a Democrat [or] (2) Loretta Sanchez, a Democrat? 32% Kamala Harris, a Democrat 25 Loretta Sanchez, a Democrat 24 neither/would not vote for U S senator (volunteered) 19 don’t know [likely voters only] In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for US Senate in 2016? 48% satisfied 35 not satisfied 1 both (volunteered) 16 don’t know Next, we have a few questions to ask you about some of the propositions on the November ballot. [likely voters only] Proposition 51 is called the “School Bonds. Funding for K –12 School and Community College Facilities. Initiative Statute .” It authorizes $9 billion in general obligation bonds for new construction and modernization of K –12 public school facilities, charter schools and vocational education facilities, and California Community C olleges facilities. The fiscal impact is state costs of about $17.6 billion to pay off both the principal of $9 billion and interest of $8.6 billion on the bonds with payments of about $500 million per year for 35 years. If the election were held today, wo uld you vote yes or no on Proposition 51? 47% yes 43 no 10 don’t know [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 51—is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 42% very important 40 somewhat important 11 not too important 4 not at all important 3 don’t know [likely voters only] Proposition 55 is called the “Tax Extension to Fund Education and Healthcare. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.” It extends by 12 years the temporary personal income tax increases enacted in 2012 on earnings over $250,000, with revenues allocated to K –12 schools, California Community Colleges, and, in certain years, healthcare. The fi scal impacts are increased state revenues of $4 to $9 billion annually from 2019 through 2030—depending on the economy and stock market —and increased funding for schools, community colleges, health care for low-income people, budget reserves, and debt payments. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 55? 54% yes 38 no 8 don’t know [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 55—is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 41% very important 43 somewhat important 10 not too important 3 not at all important 3 don’t know [likely voters only] Proposition 56 is called the Cigarette Tax to Fund Healthcare, Tobacco Use Prevention, Research, and Law Enforcement. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.” It i ncreases the cigarette tax by $2.00 per pack, with an equivalent increase on other tobacco products and electronic cigarettes containing nicotine. The fiscal impacts are additional net state revenue of $1 to $1.4 billion in the next fiscal year, with potentially lower revenues in future years. This revenue would be used primarily to augment spending on health care for low - income Californians. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 56? 59% yes 36 no 5 don’t know PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 26 [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 56—is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 43% very important 37 somewhat important 14 not too important 5 not at all important 2 don’t know [likely voters only] Proposition 64 is called the “Marijuana Legalization. Initiative Statute.” It legalizes marijuana under state law, for use by adults 21 or older and imposes state taxes on sales and cultivation. It also provides for industry licensing and establishes standards for marijuana products and allows local regulation and taxation. The fiscal impacts are additional tax revenues ranging from high hundreds of millions of dollars to over $1 billion a nnually, mostly dedicated to specific purposes and reduced criminal justice costs of tens of millions of dollars annually. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 64? 60% yes 36 no 4 don’t know [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 64—is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 50% very important 32 somewhat important 12 not too important 4 not at all important 1 don’t know On another topic, California uses the direct initiative process, which enables voters to bypass the legislature and have issues put on the ballot — as state propositions—for voter approval or rejection. Generally speaking, would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, or not satisfied with the way the initiative process is working in California today? 13% very satisfied 51 somewhat satisfied 27 not satisfied 9 don’t know Overall, how much would you say that the initiative process in California t oday is controlled by special interests—a lot, some, or not at all? 54% a lot 32 some 7 not at all 7 don’t know For the following items, please say if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree. [rotate questions 26 and 27] There are too many propositions on the state ballot . 24% strongly agree 35 somewhat agree 22 somewhat disagree 11 strongly disagree 8 don’t know The ballot wording for citizens’ initiatives is often too complicated and confusing for voters to understand what happens if the initiative passes . 38% strongly agree 36 somewhat agree 14 somewhat disagree 7 strongly disagree 5 don’t know For each of the following, please say if you favor or oppose the proposal. [rotate 28 and 29] Do you favor o r oppose raising the top rate of the state income tax paid by the wealthiest Californians? 64% favor 33 oppose 4 don’t know PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2016 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 27 Do you favor or oppose increasing state taxes on the purchase of cigarettes? 68% favor 29 oppose 2 don’t know Next, If the state ballot had a bond measure to pay for school construction projects, would you vote yes or no? 74% yes 21 no 5 don’t know On another topic, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president of the United States? 64% approve 33 disapprove 3 don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the US Congress is handling its job? 29% approve 65 disapprove 6 don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the US House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job? 51% approve 36 disapprove 13 don’t know Changing topics, Which comes closer to your view about how to ha ndle undocumented immigrants who are living in the US? [rotate] (1 ) There should be a way for them to stay in the country legally, if certain requirements are met [or] (2 ) They should not be allowed to stay in this country legally. 83% allowed to stay legally 15 not allowed to stay legally 2 don’t know All in all, would you favor or oppose building a wall along the entire border with Mexico? 25% favor 72 oppose 3 don’t know On another topic, Next, in general, do you think the use of marijuana shoul d be legal, or not? 56% yes, legal 42 no, not legal 2 don’t know 36a. Keeping in mind that all of your answers in the survey are confidential, h ave you ever tried marijuana? (if yes, ask: have you used marijuana in the last 12 months?) 22% yes have tried marijuana, used in the past year 24 yes, have tried marijuana, not in the past year 54 no, have not tried marijuana 1 don’t know Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 13% very liberal 19 somewhat liberal 28 middle -of-the -road 25 somewhat conservative 12 very conservative 3 don’t know Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics —a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 27% great deal 36 fair amount 30 only a little 7 none – don’t know [d1–18: demographic questions] PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect Angela Glover Blackwell President and CEO PolicyLink Mollyann Brodie Senior Vice President Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director B ill Lane Center for the American West Stanford University Jon Cohen Vice President of Survey Research SurveyMonkey Joshua J. Dyck Co-Director Center for Public Opinion University of Massachusetts, Lowell Russell Hancock President and CEO Joint Venture Sil icon Valley Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Professor Sol Price School of Public Policy University of Southern California Robert Lapsley President California Business Roundtable Carol S. Larson President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Sonja Petek Fiscal and Policy Analyst California Legislative Analyst’s Office Lisa Pitney Vice President of Government Relations The Walt Disney Company Mindy Romero Founder and Director California Civic Engag ement Project at the UC Davis Center for Regional Change Robert K. Ross, MD President and CEO The California Endowment Most Reverend Jaime Soto Bishop of Sacramento Roman Catholic Diocese of Sacramento Carol Whiteside Principal California Strategies The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PPIC BOARD OF DIRECTORS Mas Masumoto, Chair Author and Farmer Mark Baldassare President and CEO Public Policy Institute of California Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect María Blanco Executive Director Undocumented Student Legal Services Center University of California Office of the President Louise Henry Bryson Chair Emerita, Board of Trustees J. Paul Getty Trust A. Marisa Chun Partner McDermott Will & Emery LLP Chet Hewitt President and CEO Sierra Health Foundation Phil Isenberg Former Chair Delta Stewardship Council Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Steven A. Merksamer Senior Partner Nielsen, Merksamer, Parrinello, Gross & Leoni, LLP Gerald L. Parsky Chairman Aurora Capital Group Kim Polese Chairman ClearStreet, Inc. Gaddi H. Vasquez Senior Vice President, Government Affairs Edison International Southern California Edison Public Policy Institute of California 500 Washington Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, CA 94111 T: 415.291.4400 F: 415.291.4401 PPIC.ORG PPIC Sacramento Center Senator Office Building 1121 L Street, Suite 801 Sacramento, C A 95814 T: 916.440.1120 F: 916.440.1121" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 09:43:09" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(8) "s_916mbs" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:43:09" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 09:43:09" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["guid"]=> string(50) "http://148.62.4.17/wp-content/uploads/S_916MBS.pdf" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_mime_type"]=> string(15) "application/pdf" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" ["status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["attachment_authors"]=> bool(false) }