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PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government, September 2018

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PPIC is a public charity. It does not take or support positions on any ballot measures or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source. Research publications reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or of the staff, officers, advisory councils, or board of directors of the Public Policy Institute of California. PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY News Release SEPTEMBER 2018 CONTACT Abby Cook 415-291-4436 EMBARGOED: Do not publish or broadcast until 9:00 p.m. PDT on Wednesday, September 26, 2018. Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: www.ppic.org/press-release/ PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT Gas Tax Repeal, Rent Control Propositions Trailing NEWSOM, FEINSTEIN HOLD ON TO DOUBLE-DIGIT LEADS SAN FRANCISCO, September 26, 2018—A slim majority of California’s likely voters oppose Proposition 6, the measure on the November ballot to repeal recently enacted increases in the gas tax and vehicle registration fees. Proposition 10—which would expand the authority of local governments to enact rent control—is also trailing. These are among the key findings of a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC). When likely voters are read the Proposition 6 ballot title and label, 52 percent say they would vote no, 39 percent would vote yes, and 8 percent are undecided about the measure, which would repeal the tax increases on gasoline and diesel fuel signed into law last year to fund road repairs and public transportation. Across parties, half of Republican likely voters (50%) would vote yes. Fewer independents (42%) and Democrats (33%) would do so. Across all demographic groups, fewer than half of likely voters say they would vote yes. Asked about the importance of the outcome of the vote on the measure, 47 percent of likely voters say it is very important to them (37% say it is somewhat important). Among those who would vote yes, 55 percent say the outcome is very important, while 45 percent of those who would vote no express this view. “A slim majority of likely voters say they would vote no on Proposition 6, the gas tax repeal,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO. “Across all of the state’s major regions, fewer than half say they would vote yes.” Proposition 10 would repeal the 1995 Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act, which restricts cities’ ability to implement rent control. Among likely voters, 48 percent would vote no on the proposition; 36 percent would vote yes and 16 percent are undecided. Slim majorities of Republican and independent likely voters (52% each) would vote no on the measure. Democrats are divided (46% yes, 43% no). Regionally, support for Proposition 10 is highest in Los Angeles (45%) and lowest in the Inland Empire (29%). Across all demographic groups, support among likely voters for Proposition 10 tops 50 percent only among those age 18–34 (51%). When asked about the importance of the outcome of the Proposition 10 vote, 42 percent of likely voters say it is very important (33% somewhat important). “Proposition 10, the local rent control initiative, trails by a 12 point margin,” Baldassare said. “The yes votes are falling below a majority among both homeowners and renters.” PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 3 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 Newsom Still Has a Double-Digit Lead, But It’s Smaller In the governor’s race, Democrat Gavin Newsom maintains a double-digit lead over Republican John Cox among likely voters, although the 24 point lead Newsom had in July (55% to 31%) has narrowed to 12 points today. Today, about half (51%) say they would vote for Newsom, while 39 percent would vote for Cox and 7 percent are undecided. Most Democratic likely voters (86%) support Newsom and most Republicans support Cox (85%). Independents are divided (42% Newsom, 37% Cox, 15% undecided). Latino likely voters favor Newsom over Cox by 38 points, while white likely voters are divided. Likely voters in other racial/ethnic groups prefer Newsom by 16 points (sample sizes for Asian American and African American likely voters are too small for separate analysis). A majority of likely voters (59%) are satisfied with their choice of candidates in the governor’s race (32% not satisfied). Most likely voters say they are following news about the candidates very closely (21%) or fairly closely (41%). Feinstein Ahead by 11 Points Dianne Feinstein, who is seeking her fifth full term in the US Senate, leads fellow Democrat Kevin de León by 11 points (40% to 29%) among likely voters, with 8 percent undecided. The margin has also narrowed in this race: in July, Feinstein led by 22 points (46% to 24%). Today, about a quarter of likely voters (23%) volunteer that they would not vote for US senator. When this group is excluded, Feinstein leads de León 52 percent to 37 percent. Across parties, Democratic likely voters favor Feinstein by a two-to-one margin (60% to 30%), while about half of Republicans (52%) and a quarter of independents (26%) say they would not vote for US senator. Feinstein leads among women (46% to 30%), while men are divided (34% Feinstein, 28% de León). She leads among white likely voters (40% to 25%) and those in other racial/ethnic groups (41% to 32%). Latino likely voters are divided (40% Feinstein, 38% de León). Feinstein leads among likely voters age 18–44 (41% to 33%) and among those 45 and older (40% to 27%). Most likely voters (55%) are satisfied with their choice of candidates in this race. Baldassare summed up: “Lieutenant governor Gavin Newsom and incumbent US senator Dianne Feinstein lead their challengers by double digits although by smaller margins than in July.” Most Favor Democratic Candidates in House Races With control of Congress a much-discussed issue, half of California’s likely voters (52%) say this election is more important to them than past midterms. Democratic likely voters (64%) are much more likely than Republicans (48%) and independents (42%) to say this election is more important. Asked about the election for the US House of Representatives, most California likely voters (54%) say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate, while 37 percent would vote for or lean toward the Republican. Most partisans support their own party’s candidate, while independents prefer the Democratic candidate by 11 points. Democratic candidates are favored by a 35 point margin (63% to 28%) in districts held by Democratic members of the House. Republicans are favored by a 21 point margin (55% to 34%) in Republican-held districts. In the 11 districts deemed competitive by the Cook Political Report, likely voters are closely divided, with 44 percent favoring the Republican candidate and 43 percent favoring Democrat. (The competitive districts are 4, 7, 10, 16, 21, 25, 39, 45, 48, 49, and 50, as shown on this congressional map.) When likely voters are asked if they would prefer to elect a House candidate with experience in politics or someone without it, 46 percent prefer experience and fewer (36%) prefer a person new to politics. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 4 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 A Third of Likely Voters Approve of Trump President Trump’s approval rating is 37 percent among likely voters. A stark partisan divide persists: 81 percent of registered Republicans approve of his job performance, and 91 percent of registered Democrats disapprove. A majority of registered independents (60%) disapprove of Trump. Asked to rate Congress, 20 percent of likely voters approve. Majorities of registered voters across parties disapprove of the job Congress is doing (79% Democrats, 65% Republicans, 64% independents). By contrast, at the state level, 53 percent of California likely voters approve of Governor Brown’s job performance and 44 percent approve of the way the legislature is doing its job. When likely voters are asked to rate their own representatives at the state and national levels, 48 percent approve of the job their legislators in the assembly and senate are doing and 56 percent approve of their House representative. As Feinstein campaigns for reelection, she has an approval rating of 53 percent among likely voters. Senator Kamala Harris—who has had a high-profile role in the hearing on US Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh—has a 55 percent approval rating among likely voters. Most Say Supreme Court Choice Important to Them Personally As debate continues over the Kavanaugh nomination, 74 percent of likely voters view the choice of the next Supreme Court justice as very important to them personally (18% somewhat important). Majorities of registered voters across parties say the choice is very important. With abortion policy one of the central issues in the Supreme Court debate, the survey asks likely voters about Roe v. Wade, which established a woman’s constitutional right to abortion. Three-fourths (76%) say they do not want to see the decision overturned. Majorities of registered voters across parties express this view, although Republicans are far less likely to do so (83% Democrats, 75% independents, 53% Republicans). “Three in four likely voters say the choice of the next Supreme Court justice is very important to them,” Baldassare said. “They would not like to see the Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade.” Half Disapprove of Crackdown on Undocumented Immigrants Immigration is another national issue important to California. Half of likely voters (51%) say the federal crackdown on undocumented immigrants is a bad thing for the country. When asked if they worry that someone they know could be deported, 18 percent of likely voters say they worry a lot and 23 percent say they worry some. Jobs, Economy Seen as Most Important Issue Less than two months before the election, California’s likely voters are most likely to name jobs and the economy (18%), immigration (12%), and housing (11%) as the most important issues facing the state. Half (50%) say things in California are generally going in the right direction, and 55 percent say the state will have good times financially in the next year. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 5 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY 2018 California Election SEPTEMBER 2018 Key Findings  Gavin Newsom continues to lead John Cox in the gubernatorial election, but the double-digit margin is smaller than it was in July. Fifty-nine percent of likely voters are satisfied with their choices of candidates, with Democrats far more satisfied than Republicans. (page 7)  In the US Senate election, Senator Dianne Feinstein continues to lead Kevin de León, but the double-digit margin is smaller than it was in July. One in four likely voters— including half of Republicans—volunteer that they would not vote in this race. Fiftyfive percent of likely voters are satisfied with their choices of candidates, with Democrats far more likely than Republicans to be satisfied. (page 8)  Half of likely voters say voting this year is more important than in past midterm elections. Likely voters favor the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate in their House of Representatives election by 17 points, but partisans are divided. Forty-six percent of likely voters would prefer to elect a representative to Congress who has experience in politics instead of someone who is new to politics (36%). (page 9)  Thirty-nine percent of likely voters would vote yes on Proposition 6 (repeal gas tax increase) and 52 percent would vote no. Forty-seven percent of likely voters say the outcome of the vote on Proposition 6 is very important, with yes voters 10 points more likely than no voters to say this. (page 10)  Thirty-six percent of likely voters would vote yes on Proposition 10 (expand rent control authority) and 48 percent would vote no. Four in ten likely voters say the outcome of the vote on Proposition 10 is very important. (page 11) PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Percent likely voters Percent likely voters Percent likely voters 2018 gubernatorial election 100 80 Gavin Newsom John Cox Would not vote for governor (vol) Don’t know 60 55 51 40 31 39 20 9 5 0 July 7 3 September 2018 US Senate election 100 80 Dianne Feinstein Kevin de León Would not vote for US senator (vol) Don’t know 60 46 40 24 20 20 9 40 29 23 8 0 July September November 2018 ballot measures 100 80 Yes No Don’t know 60 52 39 40 20 8 0 Prop 6: Repeal gas tax increase 48 36 16 Prop 10: Expand rent control authority Californians and Their Government 6 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 Gubernatorial Election Less than two months before the November election, six in ten likely voters are following news about the candidates for governor very (21%) or fairly (41%) closely. Attention to news was similar in July (17% very, 42% fairly) but is lower than in September 2010 (30% very, 51% fairly)—when California had partisan primaries and an open gubernatorial election featuring Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman. In the gubernatorial election, Democrat Gavin Newsom leads Republican John Cox by a 12-point margin (51% to 39%) among likely voters, with 7 percent unsure of how they would vote. In our July survey Newsom led Cox by 24 points (55% to 31%). Today, Newsom enjoys the support of most Democrats (86%) while most Republicans (85%) support Cox; independents are divided (42% Newsom, 37% Cox) with 15 percent undecided. Latino likely voters favor Newsom over Cox by 38 points, while white likely voters are divided. Likely voters in other racial/ethnic groups prefer Newsom by 16 points. (Sample sizes for Asian American and African American likely voters are too small for separate analysis.) Likely voters in the San Francisco Bay Area favor Newsom by 44 points (66% to 22%); those in Los Angeles favor Newsom by 25 points (57% to 32%). Cox leads Newsom in the Central Valley (47% to 38%), the Inland Empire (53% to 40%), and in Orange/San Diego (53% to 39%). Men are divided (46% Newsom, 45% Cox), while women favor Newsom over Cox by 23 points (56% to 33%). Newsom leads Cox among likely voters age 18 to 44 by 23 points (56% to 33%); those age 45 and older are divided (48% to 42%). Newsom leads Cox by 25 points among college graduates (57% to 32%), while those without a degree are divided (47% Newsom, 44% Cox). “If the November 6 election for governor were being held today, would you vote for John Cox, a Republican, or Gavin Newsom, a Democrat?” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Gavin Newsom, a Democrat 51% 86% 9% 42% 64% 48% Other groups 51% John Cox, a Republican Would not vote for governor (volunteered) Don’t know 39 3 7 8 85 37 26 43 2 26 4 3 4 4 15 5 6 35 2 11 Six in ten likely voters (59%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the election for governor, while one in three are not satisfied (32%). Satisfaction was similar in September 2014 (55%), but was lower in September 2010 (45%). Today, satisfaction is much higher among Democrats than among Republicans or independents. Satisfaction is highest in the Inland Empire (66%) followed by likely voters in Los Angeles (62%), Orange/San Diego (59%), the San Francisco Bay Area (58%), and the Central Valley (51%). At least half of likely voters across age, income, education, and racial/ethnic groups are satisfied with their choices of candidates. “In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for governor on November 6?” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups Satisfied 59% 72% 44% 50% 65% 60% 52% Not satisfied 32 23 41 39 31 30 35 Don’t know 9 5 15 11 3 10 13 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 7 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 US Senate Election In the US Senate election, Dianne Feinstein—who is seeking her fifth full term as US Senator—leads fellow Democrat Kevin de León by 11 points (40% to 29%) among likely voters, with 23 percent reporting that they will not vote for US Senator and 8 percent undecided. In July Feinstein led de León by 22 points (46% to 24%). Among Democrats today, Feinstein is favored over de León by a two-to-one margin. Half of Republicans and one in four independents say they would not vote for US Senator. When we exclude those who volunteer they would not vote, a majority supports Feinstein over de León (52% to 37%). Feinstein is favored over de León among likely voters in the Central Valley (38% to 22%), Los Angeles (46% to 27%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (48% to 32%), while those in the Inland Empire (27% Feinstein, 32% de León) and Orange/San Diego (31% Feinstein, 37% de León) are divided. Feinstein leads de León by 16 points among women (46% to 30%), while men are divided (34% to 28%). Latino likely voters are divided (40% Feinstein, 38% de León), while Feinstein is favored among white likely voters (40% to 25%) and those in other racial/ethnic groups (41% to 32%). Feinstein leads among likely voters age 18 to 44 (41% to 33%) and among those age 45 and older (40% to 27%). Feinstein leads de León by 11 points among those with and without a college degree (40% to 29% each). “If the November 6 election for the US Senate were being held today, would you vote for Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat, or Kevin de León, a Democrat?” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Ind Latinos Race/Ethnicity Whites Other groups Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat 40% 60% 18% 33% 40% 40% 41% Kevin de León, a Democrat 29 30 21 28 38 Would not vote for US senator (volunteered) 23 3 52 26 17 Don’t know 8 7 9 13 5 25 26 9 32 16 10 A majority of likely voters (55%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the election for US Senate. Satisfaction today is similar to September 2016 (48%), when Senator Kamala Harris defeated fellow Democrat Loretta Sanchez, but is slightly lower than in September 2010 (64%), when Senator Barbara Boxer defeated Republican Carly Fiorina. (We did not survey Feinstein’s 2012 reelection bid.) There is a wide gap in satisfaction between Democrats and Republicans, with three in four Democrats satisfied and about two in three Republicans not satisfied. Independents are more likely to be satisfied than not satisfied. Satisfaction among likely voters is highest in the San Francisco Bay Area (65%), followed by Los Angeles (59%), the Central Valley (51%), Orange/San Diego (45%), and the Inland Empire (40%). Satisfaction is higher among likely voters age 18 to 44 (60%) than among older likely voters (52%), while it is similar among those who graduated college (56%) and those who have not (54%). Among those who are not satisfied, 49 percent say they would not vote for US Senator (19% would vote for Feinstein, 29% for de León). Among those who are satisfied, Feinstein leads de León by 27 points (57% to 30%). “In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for US Senate on November 6?” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups Satisfied 55% 76% 27% 48% 62% 48% 67% Not satisfied 37 17 64 38 30 42 26 Don’t know 8 6 9 14 7 9 8 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 8 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 Congressional Elections Much has been made of this midterm election and what it means regarding control of Congress. Half of California’s likely voters (52%) agree that this election is more important to them than past midterms. Forty-four percent say the importance of this midterm is about the same as that of past midterms. Findings were similar in March (51% more important, 48% about the same). Democratic likely voters (64%) are much more likely than Republicans (48%) and independents (42%) to say this election is more important. If the 2018 election for US House of Representatives were held today, a majority of likely voters (54%) say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate, while 37 percent would vote for or lean toward the Republican candidate. In our May survey the Democratic candidate was preferred by 14 points (52% to 38%). Findings among registered voters in our survey (54% Democratic candidate, 35% Republican candidate) are similar to nationwide findings in a September CNN poll (52% Democratic candidate, 40% Republican candidate). Most partisan likely voters would support their party’s candidate, while independents prefer the Democratic candidate by 11 points. Democratic candidates are preferred by a 35-point margin (63% to 28%) in Democratic-held districts, while Republican candidates are preferred by a 21-point margin (55% to 34%) in Republican-held districts. The Democratic candidate is preferred by large margins in the San Francisco Bay Area (72% to 26%) and Los Angeles (60% to 24%), while the Republican candidate is preferred by narrow margins in the Inland Empire (50% to 41%), Orange/San Diego (50% to 43%), and the Central Valley (45% to 40%). In the 11 districts currently deemed competitive by the Cook Political Report, likely voters are divided (44% Republican candidate, 43% Democratic candidate). (Nine of these seats are currently held by Republicans; for more information see page 22.) “If the 2018 election for US House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district? (If other/unsure: As of today, do you lean more toward the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?)” Likely voters only Republican/Lean Republican Democratic/Lean Democratic Don’t know All likely voters 37% 54 9 Dem 4% 92 3 Party Rep 87% 4 9 Ind 33% 44 23 Race/Ethnicity Latinos Whites Other groups 27% 46% 19% 68 47 65 6 7 16 Competitive house districts 44% 43 14 Forty-six percent prefer to elect a representative to Congress who has experience in politics, while 36 percent would prefer someone who is new to politics. Findings were similar in March (52% experience, 36% new to politics). Today, most Democrats (58%) prefer experience in politics while a plurality of Republicans prefer someone who is new to politics (46%). Experience is preferred in the Central Valley (44% to 37%), Los Angeles (47% to 38%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (52% to 32%), while being new to politics is preferred in the Inland Empire (44% to 34%) and Orange/San Diego (42% to 36%). “Would you prefer to elect a representative to Congress who has experience in politics, or is new to politics?” Likely voters only Has experience in politics Is new to politics Both (volunteered) All likely voters 46% 36 4 Dem 58% 27 4 Party Rep 32% 46 3 Ind 35% 41 6 Race/Ethnicity Latinos Whites Other groups 52% 44% 46% 41 33 40 – 62 Competitive house districts 42% 33 3 Don't know 14 10 19 18 7 18 12 21 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 9 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 Proposition 6: Repealing the Gas Tax Increase In April 2017, Senate Bill (SB) 1 was signed into law by Governor Brown. The new law increased taxes on gasoline and diesel fuel, and increased vehicle registration fees. The revenue generated by these tax and fee increases is expected to fund transportation infrastructure projects across the state. In November, Californians will vote on Proposition 6, which would repeal these recently enacted fuel taxes and vehicle fees. When read the Proposition 6 ballot title and label, a slight majority of likely voters (52%) would vote no; 39 percent would vote yes, and 8 percent are undecided. Half of Republican likely voters (50%) would vote yes on Proposition 6, while fewer independents (42%) and Democrats (33%) would do so. Proposition 6 fails to garner majority support across all regions of the state. Indeed, fewer than half of likely voters across all demographic groups say they would vote yes on Proposition 6. Notably, Californians with a household income below $40,000 are more likely than those with higher incomes to say they would vote yes on Proposition 6. When asked a more general question about repealing the recent increases, likely voters are divided (50% favor, 46% oppose). “Proposition 6 is called the ‘Eliminates Certain Road Repair and Transportation Funding. Requires Certain Fuel Taxes and Vehicle Fees be Approved by the Electorate. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 6?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 39% 52% 8% Democrats 33 62 5 Party Republicans 50 41 9 Independents 42 47 11 Central Valley 45 50 5 Inland Empire 38 57 5 Region Los Angeles 43 50 7 Orange/San Diego 35 50 15 San Francisco Bay Area 43 51 6 Under $40,000 47 44 9 Household Income $40,000 to under $80,000 39 57 5 $80,000 or more 37 55 8 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 25. Forty-seven percent of likely voters say that the outcome of the vote on Proposition 6 is very important to them, while a further 37 percent say it is somewhat important. Republican likely voters (61%) are much more likely than Democrats and independents (43% each) to say the outcome of Proposition 6 is very important. Among those who would vote yes on Proposition 6, 55 percent say the outcome is very important; among those who would vote no, 45 percent say the outcome of the vote is very important. “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 6?” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Ind Very important 47% 43% 61% 43% Somewhat important 37 41 26 39 Not too important 11 12 5 13 Not at all important 2 2 2 3 Don’t know 3 2 53 Vote on Proposition 6 Yes No 55% 45% 35 40 9 11 14 –1 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 10 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 Proposition 10: Expanding Rent Control Authority Proposition 10 would expand the authority local governments have to enact rent control by repealing the 1995 Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act, which limited the ability of cities to broaden the types of residential units that could be covered under rent control ordinances. When read the Proposition 10 ballot title and label, 48 percent of likely voters would vote no; 36 percent would vote yes, and 16 percent are undecided. Slight majorities of Republican and independent likely voters (52% each) would vote no on the measure, while Democrats are divided (46% yes, 43% no). Regionally, support for Proposition 10 is highest in Los Angeles (45%) and lowest in the Inland Empire (29%). Notably, slight majorities of likely voters in the San Francisco Bay Area (54%) and the Inland Empire (51%) say they would vote no on Proposition 10. Though renters are more likely than homeowners to support Proposition 10 (43% to 31%), about half of both groups would vote no if the election were held today. Across all demographic groups, support among likely voters for Proposition 10 exceeds 50 percent only among 18 to 34 year olds (51%). When asked a more general question about rent control by local governments, 52 percent of likely voters say it is a good thing, while 41 percent say it is a bad thing. “Proposition 10 is called the ‘Expands Local Governments’ Authority to Enact Rent Control on Residential Property. Initiative Statute.’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 10?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 36% 48% 16% Democrats 46 43 10 Party Republicans 22 52 26 Independents 31 52 17 Central Valley 39 47 15 Inland Empire 29 51 21 Region Los Angeles 45 45 10 Orange/San Diego 33 47 20 San Francisco Bay Area 32 54 15 Home ownership Own Rent 31 49 43 51 20 6 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 25. Forty-two percent of likely voters say that the outcome of the vote on Proposition 10 is very important to them, while a further 33 percent say it is somewhat important. Views on its importance are similar across parties and among those who would vote yes and those who would vote no on this proposition. Notably, renters (54%) are much more likely than homeowners (38%) to say that the outcome of the vote on Proposition 10 is very important to them. “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 10?” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Ind Very important 42% 44% 39% 45% Somewhat important 33 31 34 31 Not too important 16 17 19 13 Not at all important 4 3 4 3 Don’t know 5 5 47 Vote on Proposition 10 Yes No 46% 37 15 1 1 45% 32 17 6 1 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 11 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY State and National Issues SEPTEMBER 2018 Key Findings  Just under half of Californians approve of the job performance of Governor Brown, the state legislature overall, and the state legislator representing their assembly and senate districts. (page 13)  About three in ten Californians approve of the job performance of President Trump and that of Congress overall. Just under half of Californians approve of their representative to the US House of Representatives, while Senators Feinstein and Harris each have 44 percent approval. (pages 14, 15)  Jobs and the economy (22%) is mentioned most often when asked what is the most important issue facing California today. Half of Californians say things in California are going in the right direction and expect good times financially. (page 16)  Half of Californians—with partisans divided—think the federal crackdown on undocumented immigrants is a bad thing for the country. Half of adults—and seven in ten Latinos—say they worry a lot or some that someone they know will be deported as a result of increased federal immigration enforcement. (page 17)  Six in ten Californians—and majorities across partisan groups—say the choice of the next Supreme Court justice is very important to them personally. Two in three say they do not want to see the Supreme Court overturn its Roe v. Wade decision. (page 18)  Californians are divided on whether they prefer to pay higher taxes and have more state government services or pay lower taxes and have fewer services. A majority of Californians—with partisans divided—say the state government should do more to reduce the gap between rich and poor. (page 19) PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Percent Percent all adults Percent all adults Approval ratings of state elected officials 100 Governor Brown California Legislature 80 60 49 40 46 20 0 Approval ratings of federal elected officials 100 President Trump US Congress 80 60 40 33 30 20 30 28 0 Importance of choice of next Supreme Court justice 100 % saying very important 80 74 74 59 60 63 58 40 20 0 All adults Dem Rep Ind Likely voters Californians and Their Government 12 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 Approval Ratings of State Elected Officials In the wake of the Global Climate Action Summit that featured the state’s environmental leadership under Jerry Brown, the governor’s approval rating stands at 49 percent among California adults and 53 percent among likely voters. The governor’s approval ratings were in a similar range in July (52% adults, 54% likely voters) and last September (55% adults, 55% likely voters). Today, the governor’s approval rating stands at 71 percent among Democrats, 44 percent among independents, and 14 percent among Republicans. Majorities of adults approve in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles. Majorities of Asian Americans (55%), Latinos (54%), and African Americans (53%) approve; fewer whites (43%) do so. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California?” Approve Disapprove Don’t know All adults 49% 32% 20% Likely voters 53 41 7 Democrats 71 19 10 Party Republicans 14 75 11 Independents 44 33 23 Central Valley 43 38 18 Inland Empire 41 46 14 Region Los Angeles 58 29 13 Orange/San Diego 36 35 29 San Francisco Bay Area 58 20 23 The state legislature’s approval rating has held relatively steady at 46 percent among adults and 44 percent among likely voters. Approval of the legislature was similar in July (46% adults, 46% likely voters) and last September (49% adults, 44% likely voters). Today, 61 percent of Democrats, 37 percent of independents, and 17 percent of Republicans express approval. Majorities of adults in Los Angeles (54%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (51%)—but fewer than half in other regions—approve. Half or more of Asian Americans (59%), Latinos (53%), and African Americans (50%) approve; fewer whites (37%) do. Forty-seven percent of adults and 48 percent of likely voters approve of the way that the state legislators representing their assembly and senate districts are doing their jobs. The levels of approval were similar in March (49% adults, 46% likely voters) and in September 2016 (52% adults, 49% likely voters). Today, 62 percent of Democrats, 37 percent of independents, and 28 percent of Republicans approve. Majorities in Los Angeles (59%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (51%)—but fewer than half in other regions—express approval. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of …?” All adults the way that the California Legislature is handling its job the job that the state legislators representing your assembly and senate districts are doing at this time Approve Disapprove Don't know Approve Disapprove Don't know 46% 37 17 47 33 20 Dem 61% 27 12 62 25 13 Party Rep 17% 73 11 28 60 12 Likely Ind voters 37% 44% 44 46 19 10 37 48 39 39 24 14 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 13 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 Approval Ratings of Federal Elected Officials President Trump’s approval rating (30% adults, 37% likely voters) is similar to his rating in July (29% adults, 34% likely voters) and last September (27% adults, 31% likely voters). Today, 81 percent of Republicans, 34 percent of independents, and 9 percent of Democrats approve of President Trump. Across the state’s regions, the president’s approval rating is lower in the San Francisco Bay Area (20%) and Los Angeles (25%) than it is elsewhere (34% Central Valley, 34% Orange/San Diego, 40% Inland Empire). Across racial/ethnic groups, whites (42%) are more likely than Asian Americans (28%), Latinos (17%), and African Americans (14%) to approve. A recent Gallup weekly tracking poll had adults nationwide giving the president a somewhat higher approval rating (38% approve, 56% disapprove). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president?” Approve Disapprove Don’t know All adults 30% 66% 5% Likely voters 37 61 2 Democrats 9 91 1 Party Republicans 81 16 3 Independents 34 60 6 Central Valley 34 62 4 Inland Empire 40 56 5 Region Los Angeles 25 72 2 Orange/San Diego 34 55 11 San Francisco Bay Area 20 76 4 Twenty-eight percent of adults and 20 percent of likely voters approve of the way the US Congress is handling its job. Approval of the US Congress was similar in July (20% adults, 14% likely voters) and last September (24% adults, 18% likely voters). Today, one in four Republicans (26%) and independents (24%) approve, but fewer Democrats (16%) do. Across regions, fewer than one in three adults approve of the US Congress. Across racial/ethnic groups, approval is at 20 percent among whites, 25 percent among Asian Americans, 26 percent among African Americans, and 41 percent among Latinos. Nationwide approval of the US Congress was at 19 percent in a September Gallup poll. Forty-seven percent of adults and 56 percent of likely voters approve of their own representatives to the US House. Approval ratings among likely voters were similar in March (52% adults, 53% likely voters) and somewhat lower in September 2016 (51% adults, 47% likely voters). Today, majorities of Democrats (59%)—but fewer independents (49%) and Republicans (43%)—approve. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of …?” All adults the way the US Congress is handling its job the way your own representative to the US House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job Approve Disapprove Don't know Approve Disapprove Don't know 28% 61 10 47 32 20 Dem 16% 79 5 59 27 15 Party Rep 26% 65 8 43 43 14 Likely Ind voters 24% 20% 64 74 11 7 49 56 36 34 15 10 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 14 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 Approval Ratings of California’s Senators In the midst of a fall reelection campaign, 44 percent of adults and 53 percent of likely voters approve of the way that Senator Feinstein is handling her job. Approval was similar in March (45% adults, 54% likely voters) and last September (48% adults, 54% likely voters). Today, 68 percent of Democrats, 47 percent of independents, and 20 percent of Republicans approve. Majorities in the San Francisco Bay Area (54%) and Los Angeles (52%)—but fewer than half in other regions—approve. Approval is higher among African Americans (65%) than among other racial/ethnic groups (45% Asian Americans, 45% whites, 40% Latinos), and approval is higher among older adults (38% under 35, 46% 35 to 54, 50% 55 and older). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Dianne Feinstein is handling her job as US senator?” Approve Disapprove Don’t know All adults 44% 35% 20% Likely voters 53 42 6 Democrats 68 22 10 Party Republicans 20 75 4 Independents 47 39 15 Central Valley 38 37 25 Inland Empire 29 47 23 Region Los Angeles 52 31 17 Orange/San Diego 35 46 19 San Francisco Bay Area 54 25 21 In the wake of her high-profile role in the Senate hearings for the US Supreme Court nominee, Kamala Harris has a 44 percent approval rating among adults and 55 percent approval among likely voters. The senator’s approval rating among likely voters was somewhat lower in March (41% adults, 45% likely voters) and last September (42% adults, 47% likely voters). Today, 70 percent of Democrats, 48 percent of independents, and 18 percent of Republicans approve. About half in the San Francisco Bay Area (52%) and Los Angeles (49%) approve, while fewer approve in other regions. Approval is higher among African Americans (63%) and Asian Americans (56%) than among whites (43%) and Latinos (39%). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Kamala Harris is handling her job as US senator?” Approve Disapprove Don’t know All adults 44% 27% 29% Likely voters 55 31 14 Democrats 70 14 17 Republicans 18 55 28 Independents 48 30 22 Central Valley 35 28 37 Inland Empire 40 36 24 Region Los Angeles 49 25 26 Orange/San Diego 38 31 32 San Francisco Bay Area 52 19 29 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 15 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 Overall Mood Californians are most likely to name jobs and the economy (22% adults, 18% likely voters), immigration (10% adults, 12% likely voters), and housing (9% adults, 11% likely voters) as the most important issues facing California today. Jobs and the economy is the top issue across all regions. About half of adults (51%) and likely voters (50%) say that things in California are generally going in the right direction. Optimism levels were similar in January (57% adults, 54% likely voters) and last September (54% adults, 51% likely voters). Today, Democrats (70%) are far more likely than independents (45%) and Republicans (16%) to say things are going in the right direction. Majorities in Los Angeles (56%), the San Francisco Bay Area (56%), and Orange/San Diego (51%)—but fewer in the Central Valley (46%) and the Inland Empire (39%)—hold this view. Majorities of Asian Americans (59%), Latinos (57%), and African Americans (56%) think things are going in the right direction, while fewer whites (46%) have this perception. “Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?” Right direction Wrong direction Don’t know All adults 51% 43% 6% Likely voters 50 47 3 Democrats 70 25 5 Party Republicans 16 81 3 Independents 45 48 7 Central Valley 46 49 5 Inland Empire 39 52 9 Region Los Angeles 56 38 5 Orange/San Diego 51 47 2 San Francisco Bay Area 56 36 8 Slight majorities of adults (53%) and likely voters (55%) say that the state will have good times financially in the next 12 months. Expectations for good times were similar in May (51% adults, 50% likely voters) and last September (51% adults, 51% likely voters). Today, six in ten Democrats expect good times, compared with fewer independents (45%) and Republicans (43%). Majorities across regions—with the exception of the Inland Empire—expect good times financially. Asian Americans (64%), Latinos (54%), and whites (51%) are more likely than African Americans (42%) to expect good times. “Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?” Good times Bad times Don’t know All adults 53% 37% 10% Likely voters 55 38 7 Democrats 60 31 9 Party Republicans 43 52 5 Independents 45 48 7 Central Valley 51 43 7 Inland Empire 43 41 17 Region Los Angeles 52 36 11 Orange/San Diego 57 34 10 San Francisco Bay Area 56 34 9 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 16 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 Immigration Policy Amid continued federal immigration enforcement, half of California adults (51%) and likely voters (51%) think the federal crackdown on undocumented immigrants is a bad thing for the country. Findings were similar in March, when 51 percent of adults and 49 percent of likely voters saw the crackdown as a bad thing. Today, there are stark partisan differences on this issue: 78 percent of Democrats say the crackdown is a bad thing for the country but 74 percent of Republicans say it is a good thing. A majority of independents (56%) say it is a bad thing. At least half of African Americans (65%), Latinos (54%), and Asian Americans (52%) say the crackdown is a bad thing, while whites are divided (47% bad, 45% good). Majorities in Los Angeles (62%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (55%) say it is a bad thing, while fewer in other regions (46% Central Valley, 41% Inland Empire, 39% Orange/San Diego) hold this view. Californians age 18 to 34 (59%) are more likely than older residents (48% age 35 to 54, 46% age 55 and older) to say the crackdown is a bad thing. “Do you think the federal crackdown on undocumented immigrants is a good thing for the country or a bad thing for the country?” Good thing All adults 39% Dem 17% Party Rep 74% Ind 33% African Americans 26% Race/Ethnicity Asian Americans Latinos 38% 34% Whites 45% Bad thing 51 78 16 56 65 52 54 47 Mixed/neither (volunteered) 5 3 4 6 3 4 45 Don't know 5 2 5 5 6 6 73 Nearly half of Californians say they worry a lot (29%) or some (20%) that someone they know could be deported; among likely voters, 18 percent worry a lot and 23 percent worry some. Findings were similar among adults in December, when 28 percent said they worried a lot and 20 percent worried some. Today, Democrats (31% a lot, 25% some) and independents (27% a lot, 28% some) are far more likely than Republicans (7% a lot, 11% some) to worry a lot or some that someone they know will be deported. Notably, Latinos (55%) are more likely than other racial/ethnic groups (30% African Americans, 19% Asian Americans, 14% whites) to say they worry a lot. Californians under age 55 are more likely than older adults to say they worry a lot (33% to 22%). Across regions, residents of Los Angeles (39%) are the most likely to say they worry a lot (30% Central Valley, 26% San Francisco Bay Area, 21% Orange/San Diego, 20% Inland Empire). Californians with no college education (45%) are much more likely than those with some college (21%) and college graduates (17%) to say they worry a lot. Similarly, those with annual household incomes under $40,000 (43%) are much more likely than those with higher incomes (26% $40,000 to $80,000, 16% $80,000 or more) to say they worry a lot. “When it comes to increased federal immigration enforcement, how much do you worry that someone that you know could be deported? Would you say that you worry a lot, some, not much, or not at all?” A lot All adults 29% Dem 31% Party Rep 7% Ind 27% African Americans 30% Race/Ethnicity Asian Americans Latinos 19% 55% Whites 14% Some 20 25 11 28 16 26 18 19 Not much 15 17 16 14 21 21 8 18 Not at all 34 24 66 31 31 30 18 47 Don't know 2 3 – – 2 3 11 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 17 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 The Supreme Court and Abortion On July 9, President Trump nominated Brett Kavanaugh to replace Justice Anthony Kennedy on the US Supreme Court. This choice has the potential to solidify the conservative ideological balance of the court. Nearly all Californians view the choice of the next Supreme Court justice as either very (59%) or somewhat (24%) important to them personally. Likely voters are somewhat more likely to view the choice as important (74% very, 18% somewhat). While majorities across parties view the outcome as very important, Democrats (74%) are more likely than Republicans (63%) or independents (58%) to hold this view. Majorities across regions and demographic groups say the choice is personally very important. Similar proportions of men (61%) and women (58%) say the choice is very important. Among racial/ethnic groups, Asian Americans (65%) and whites (63%) are the most likely to say the choice is very important (58% African Americans, 54% Latinos). Similar shares of adults nationwide (63% very, 20% somewhat) said the choice was personally important to them in a July Pew Research Center poll. “How important is the choice of the next Supreme Court justice to you personally: very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important?” All adults 18-34 Age 35-54 55 and older African Americans Race/Ethnicity Asian Americans Latinos Very important 59% 53% 59% 68% 58% 65% 54% Somewhat important 24 29 25 17 23 19 27 Not too important 8 10 8 6 5 9 9 Not at all important 6 5 5 7 14 4 4 Don’t know 33 33 1 3 5 Whites 63% 23 8 6 1 As the Senate considers President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, abortion policy is a central issue. In 1973, the Supreme Court’s decision in Roe v. Wade established a women’s constitutional right to an abortion. Today, 66 percent of adults and 76 percent of likely voters say they do not want to see that decision overturned. Since 2005, in response to a similar question, at least 65 percent of Californians have held this view. Today, majorities across parties do not want Roe v. Wade overturned, with Democrats (83%) and independents (75%) far more likely than Republicans (53%) to hold this view. Support for not overturning Roe v. Wade rises with higher education and income levels, though majorities across education and income groups do not want it overturned. Two in three women (67%) and men (65%) and majorities across racial/ethnic groups do not want it overturned. Among those who say the decision should not be overturned, 62 percent say the choice of the next Supreme Court justice is personally very important to them. Among those who say the choice of the next Supreme Court justice is personally very important, 69 percent do not want Roe v. Wade overturned. In a June Kaiser Family Foundation survey, opinions among adults nationwide (67% do not want overturn, 29% overturn) were similar to those of Californians in our survey. “As you may know, the 1973 Supreme Court case Roe v. Wade established a women’s constitutional right to have an abortion. Would you like to see the Supreme Court overturn its Roe v. Wade decision, or not?” Yes, overturn All adults 26% 18-34 27% Age 35-54 26% 55 and older 26% African Americans 24% Race/Ethnicity Asian Americans Latinos 11% 38% No, not overturn 66 67 65 68 71 78 55 Don’t know 7 6 9 6 5 11 7 Whites 23% 72 5 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 18 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 Role of State Government About half of Californians (50% adults, 49% likely voters) say they would rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, while slightly fewer would rather pay lower taxes and have fewer services (44% adults, 46% likely voters). In January 2017, views were similar: about half of Californians (52% adults, 49% likely voters) said they would rather pay higher taxes and have more services, slightly fewer said they would prefer the opposite (43% adults, 47% likely voters). Today, Democrats (71%) are far more likely than independents (44%) and Republicans (20%) to prefer higher taxes and more services. The preference for higher taxes and more services is slightly more common in the San Francisco Bay Area (56%) and Los Angeles (55%) than in other regions (47% Orange/San Diego, 45% Central Valley, 38% Inland Empire). This view is also more common among women (56%) than men (44%). Latinos (60%) and African Americans (59%) are more likely than Asian Americans (48%) and whites (45%) to hold this view. The preference for paying higher taxes and having more services is less common among older adults, homeowners, and adults with higher incomes. “In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more: I’d rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, or I’d rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services?” Higher taxes and more services Lower taxes and fewer services Don’t know All adults 50% 44 6 Dem 71% 26 4 Party Rep 20% 75 5 Ind 44% 50 6 Race/Ethnicity African Asian Americans Americans Latinos 59% 48% 60% 39 50 33 3 27 Whites 45% 49 6 Six in ten adults (60%) and a majority of likely voters (53%) say the state government should do more to reduce the gap between rich and poor in California. A third of adults (32%) and four in ten likely voters (43%) say the state government should not do this. In our May 2017 survey, similar proportions said the state government should do more (61% adults, 52% likely voters). Today, three in four Democrats (77%) and a majority of independents (56%) say the state government should do more to reduce the gap, while seven in ten Republicans (71%) say the state should not do so. At least half of Californians across demographic groups say the state should do more. Renters (68%) and those with household incomes below $40,000 (68%) are more likely than homeowners (53%) and those with incomes of $80,000 or more (54%) to say the state should do more. Californians under age 55 are more likely than older adults to say the state should do more (65% to 51%). Across racial/ethnic groups, African Americans (82%) are the most likely to say the state should do more (68% Latinos, 66% Asian Americans, 50% whites). Among adults who prefer to pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, 77 percent say the state should do more, while 42 percent of those who prefer pay lower taxes and have fewer services hold this view. “Should the state government be doing more to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor in California, or is this something that the state government should not be doing?” Should do more All adults 60% Dem 77% Party Rep 25% Ind 56% African Americans 82% Race/Ethnicity Asian Americans Latinos 66% 68% Should not be doing 32 16 71 39 14 23 25 Don’t know 8 7 4 5 5 10 7 Whites 50% 43 6 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 19 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Regional Map SEPTEMBER 2018 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 20 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Methodology SEPTEMBER 2018 The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance from associate survey director Dean Bonner, project manager for this survey, and survey research associates Alyssa Dykman and Lunna Lopes. The Californians and Their Government series is supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle. The PPIC Statewide Survey invites input, comments, and suggestions from policy and public opinion experts and from its own advisory committee members, but survey methods, questions, and content are determined solely by PPIC’s survey team. Findings in this report are based on a survey of 1,710 California adult residents, including 1,195 interviewed on cell phones and 515 interviewed on landline telephones. Interviews took an average of 17 minutes to complete. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights from September 9–18, 2018. Cell phone interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of cell phone numbers. All cell phone numbers with California area codes were eligible for selection. Once a cell phone user was reached, it was verified that this person was age 18 or older, a resident of California, and in a safe place to continue the survey (e.g., not driving). Cell phone respondents were offered a small reimbursement to help defray the cost of the call. Cell phone interviews were conducted with adults who have cell phone service only and with those who have both cell phone and landline service in the household. Landline interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible for selection. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. For both cell phones and landlines, telephone numbers were called as many as eight times. When no contact with an individual was made, calls to a number were limited to six. Also, to increase our ability to interview Asian American adults, we made up to three additional calls to phone numbers estimated by Survey Sampling International as likely to be associated with Asian American individuals. Live landline and cell phone interviews were conducted by Abt Associates in English and Spanish, according to respondents’ preferences. Accent on Languages, Inc., translated new survey questions into Spanish, with assistance from Renatta DeFever. Abt Associates uses the US Census Bureau’s 2012–2016 American Community Survey’s (ACS) Public Use Microdata Series for California (with regional coding information from the University of Minnesota’s Integrated Public Use Microdata Series for California) to compare certain demographic characteristics of the survey sample—region, age, gender, race/ethnicity, and education—with the characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the ACS figures. To estimate landline and cell phone service in California, Abt Associates used 2016 state-level estimates released by the National Center for Health Statistics—which used data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the ACS. The estimates for California were then compared against landline and cell phone service reported in this survey. We also used voter registration data from the California Secretary of State to compare the party registration of registered voters in our sample to party registration statewide. The landline and cell phone samples were then integrated using a frame integration weight, while sample balancing adjusted for differences across regional, age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, telephone service, and party registration groups. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 21 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 The sampling error, taking design effects from weighting into consideration, is ±3.5 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total unweighted sample of 1,710 adults. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 3.5 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for unweighted subgroups is larger: for the 1,349 registered voters, the sampling error is ±4 percent; for the 964 likely voters, it is ±4.8 percent; for the 185 likely voters in competitive congressional districts, it is ±11.4 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. We present results for five geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, “Inland Empire” refers to Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, and “Orange/San Diego” refers to Orange and San Diego Counties. Residents of other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes for these less populous areas are not large enough to report separately. We also present results for congressional districts currently held by Democrats or Republicans, based on residential zip code and party of the local US House member. We analyze the results of those who live in competitive house districts as determined by the Cook Political Report’s 2018 House Race Ratings updated September 19, 2018. These districts are 4, 7, 10, 16, 21, 25, 39, 45, 48, 49, and 50 and a map of California’s congressional districts can be found here. We present results for non-Hispanic whites, who account for 42 percent of the state’s adult population, and also for Latinos, who account for about a third of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest-growing voter groups. We also present results for non-Hispanic Asian Americans, who make up about 15 percent of the state’s adult population, and non-Hispanic African Americans, who comprise about 6 percent. Results for other racial/ethnic groups—such as Native Americans—are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes are not large enough for separate analysis. Results for African American and Asian American likely voters are combined with those of other racial/ethnic groups because sample sizes for African American and Asian American likely voters are too small for separate analysis. We compare the opinions of those who report they are registered Democrats, registered Republicans, and decline-to-state or independent voters; the results for those who say they are registered to vote in other parties are not large enough for separate analysis. We also analyze the responses of likely voters—so designated per their responses to survey questions about voter registration, previous election participation, intentions to vote this year, attention to election news, and current interest in politics. The percentages presented in the report tables and in the questionnaire may not add to 100 due to rounding. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey results to those in our earlier surveys and to those in national surveys by ABC/Washington Post, CNN, Gallup, Kaiser Family Foundation, and Pew Research Center. Additional details about our methodology can be found at www.ppic.org/wpcontent/uploads/SurveyMethodology.pdf and are available upon request through surveys@ppic.org. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 22 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Questionnaire and Results SEPTEMBER 2018 CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT September 9-18, 2018 1,710 California Adult Residents: English, Spanish MARGIN OF ERROR ±3.5% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100 DUE TO ROUNDING First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today? [code, don’t read] 22% 10 9 7 6 6 5 5 5 3 3 2 13 4 jobs, economy immigration, illegal immigration housing costs, availability government in general, problems with elected officials, parties environment, pollution, global warming homelessness crime, gangs, drugs state budget, deficit, taxes water, drought infrastructure health care, health insurance education, schools, teachers other (specify) don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California? 49% approve 32 disapprove 20 don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job? 46% approve 37 disapprove 17 don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that the state legislators representing your assembly and senate districts are doing at this time? 47% 33 20 approve disapprove don’t know Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 51% 43 6 right direction wrong direction don’t know Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 53% 37 10 good times bad times don’t know Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote in California? 68% yes [ask q7a] 32 no [skip to q8b] 7a. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or are you registered as a decline-to-state or independent voter? 44% 25 5 25 Democrat [ask q8] Republican [skip to q8a] another party (specify) [skip to q9] independent [skip to q8b] PPIC.ORG/SURVEYCalifornians and Their GovernmentError! No document variable supplied.Error! No document variable supplied. 23 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 58% 41 2 strong not very strong don’t know [skip to q9] 8a. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 66% 27 7 strong not very strong don’t know [skip to q9] 8b. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party? 24% 45 23 8 Republican Party Democratic Party neither (volunteered) don’t know [likely voters only] If the November 6th election for governor were being held today, would you vote for [rotate] [1] John Cox, a Republican, [or] [2] Gavin Newsom, a Democrat? 51% 39 3 7 Gavin Newsom, a Democrat John Cox, a Republican neither/would not vote for governor (volunteered) don’t know [likely voters only] How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2018 governor’s election—very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 21% 41 27 11 – very closely fairly closely not too closely not at all closely don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 [likely voters only] In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for governor on November 6th? 59% 32 9 satisfied not satisfied don’t know [likely voters only] If the November 6th election for the US Senate were being held today, would you vote for [rotate] [1] Kevin De León, a Democrat, [or] [2] Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat? 40% 29 23 8 Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat Kevin de León, a Democrat neither/would not vote for US Senator (volunteered) don’t know [likely voters only] In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for US Senate on November 6th? 55% 37 8 satisfied not satisfied don’t know Changing topics, [likely voters only] Is voting this year more important to you than in past midterm elections, less important, or about the same? 52% 3 44 – – more important less important about the same first year that I’m eligible (volunteered) don’t know [likely voters only] If the 2018 election for US House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for [rotate] [1] the Republican candidate [or] [2] the Democratic candidate in your district? [If other/don’t know: As of today, do you lean more toward [read in same order as above] [1] the Republican candidate [or] [2] the Democratic candidate? 37% 54 9 Rep/lean Rep Dem/lean Dem don’t know Californians and Their Government 24 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY [likely voters only] Would you prefer to elect a representative to Congress who—[rotate] (1) has experience in politics [or] (2) is new to politics? 46% 36 4 14 has experience in politics is new to politics both (volunteered) don’t know Next, we have a few questions to ask you about some of the propositions on the November ballot. [likely voters only] Proposition 6 is called the “Eliminates Certain Road Repair and Transportation Funding. Requires Certain Fuel Taxes and Vehicle Fees be Approved by the Electorate. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.” It repeals a 2017 transportation law’s taxes and fees designated for road repairs and public transportation. The fiscal impact is reduced ongoing revenues of $5.1 billion from state fuel and vehicle taxes that mainly would have paid for highway and road maintenance and repairs, as well as transit programs. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 6? 39% 52 8 yes no don’t know [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 6— is it very important, somewhat important, no too important, or not at all important? 47% 37 11 2 3 very important somewhat important not too important not at all important don’t know SEPTEMBER 2018 [likely voters only] Proposition 10 is called the “Expands Local Governments’ Authority to Enact Rent Control on Residential Property. Initiative Statute.” It repeals state law that currently restricts the scope of rent-control policies that cities and other local jurisdictions may impose on residential property. The fiscal impact is potential net reduction in state and local revenues of tens of millions of dollars per year in the long term. Depending on actions by local communities, revenue losses could be less or considerably more. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 10? 36% 48 16 yes no don’t know [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 10—is it very important, somewhat important, no too important, or not at all important? 42% 33 16 4 5 very important somewhat important not too important not at all important don’t know Next, In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more— [rotate] (1) I’d rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, [or] (2) I’d rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services? 50% 44 6 higher taxes and more services lower taxes and fewer services don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 25 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Should the state government be doing more to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor in California, or is this something that the state government should not be doing? 60% 32 8 should do more should not do more don’t know Next, Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president? 30% 66 5 approve disapprove don’t know [rotate questions 24 and 25] Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Kamala Harris is handling her job as US senator? 44% 27 29 approve disapprove don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Dianne Feinstein is handling her job as US senator? 44% 35 20 approve disapprove don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the US Congress is handling its job? 28% 61 10 approve disapprove don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the US House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job? 47% 32 20 approve disapprove don’t know SEPTEMBER 2018 On another topic, Do you think the federal crackdown on undocumented immigrants has been a good thing for the country or a bad thing for the country? 39% 51 4 1 5 good thing bad thing mixed (volunteered) neither (volunteered) don’t know When it comes to increased federal immigration enforcement, how much do you worry that someone that you know could be deported? Would you say that you worry a lot, some, not much, or not at all? 29% 20 15 34 2 a lot some not much not at all don’t know Changing topics, How important is the choice of the next Supreme Court Justice to you personally: very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 59% 24 8 6 3 very important somewhat important not too important not at all important don’t know As you may know, the 1973 Supreme Court case Roe v. Wade established a women’s constitutional right to have an abortion. Would you like to see the Supreme Court overturn its Roe v. Wade decision, or not? 26% yes, overturn Roe versus Wade 66 no, not overturn Roe versus Wade 7 don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 26 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Changing topics, [likely voters only] In 2017, the California legislature passed and Governor Brown signed into law an increase in the state’s gasoline tax. Do you favor or oppose repealing the recently passed increase in the state gas tax? 50% 46 4 favor oppose don’t know [likely voters only] Do you think rent control—that is, the ability of local governments to set limits on how much rents can be increased each year—is a good thing or a bad thing? 52% 41 7 good thing bad thing don’t know SEPTEMBER 2018 Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 13% 19 31 22 12 3 very liberal somewhat liberal middle-of-the-road somewhat conservative very conservative don’t know Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics—a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 26% 35 29 10 1 great deal fair amount only a little none don’t know [d1-d16 demographic questions] PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 27 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect Angela Glover Blackwell President and CEO PolicyLink Mollyann Brodie Senior Vice President Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Bill Lane Center for the American West Stanford University Jon Cohen Vice President of Survey Research SurveyMonkey Joshua J. Dyck Co-Director Center for Public Opinion University of Massachusetts, Lowell Lisa García Bedolla Director Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley Russell Hancock President and CEO Joint Venture Silicon Valley Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Professor Sol Price School of Public Policy University of Southern California Robert Lapsley President California Business Roundtable Carol S. Larson President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Sonja Petek Fiscal and Policy Analyst California Legislative Analyst’s Office Lisa Pitney Vice President of Government Relations The Walt Disney Company Robert K. Ross, MD President and CEO The California Endowment Most Reverend Jaime Soto Bishop of Sacramento Roman Catholic Diocese of Sacramento Carol Whiteside Principal California Strategies The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PPIC BOARD OF DIRECTORS Steven A. Merksamer, Chair Senior Partner Nielsen, Merksamer, Parrinello, Gross & Leoni, LLP Mark Baldassare President and CEO Public Policy Institute of California Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect María Blanco Executive Director University of California Immigrant Legal Services Center Louise Henry Bryson Chair Emerita, Board of Trustees J. Paul Getty Trust A. Marisa Chun Partner McDermott Will & Emery LLP Chet Hewitt President and CEO Sierra Health Foundation Phil Isenberg Former Chair Delta Stewardship Council Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Mas Masumoto Author and Farmer Leon E. Panetta Chairman The Panetta Institute for Public Policy Gerald L. Parsky Chairman Aurora Capital Group Kim Polese Chairman ClearStreet, Inc. Gaddi H. Vasquez Senior Vice President, Government Affairs Edison International Southern California Edison Public Policy Institute of California 500 Washington Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, CA 94111 T: 415.291.4400 F: 415.291.4401 PPIC.ORG PPIC Sacramento Center Senator Office Building 1121 L Street, Suite 801 Sacramento, CA 95814 T: 916.440.1120 F: 916.440.1121" } ["___content":protected]=> string(194) "

PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government, September 2018

" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(141) "https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-september-2018/ppic-statewide-survey-september-2018/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(16390) ["ID"]=> int(16390) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "4" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2018-09-26 20:49:37" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(16321) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(72) "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government, September 2018" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(36) "ppic-statewide-survey-september-2018" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(40) "ppic-statewide-survey-september-2018.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(7) "2130714" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(73943) "PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 Californians & Their Government Mark Baldassare Dean Bonner Alyssa Dykman Lunna Lopes CONTENTS Press Release 2018 California Election State and National Issues Regional Map Methodology Questionnaire and Results 3 6 12 20 21 23 Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle The PPIC Statewide Survey provides a voice for the public and likely voters— informing policymakers, encouraging discussion, and raising awareness on critical issues of the day. © 2018 Public Policy Institute of California The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. PPIC is a public charity. It does not take or support positions on any ballot measures or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source. Research publications reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or of the staff, officers, advisory councils, or board of directors of the Public Policy Institute of California. PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY News Release SEPTEMBER 2018 CONTACT Abby Cook 415-291-4436 EMBARGOED: Do not publish or broadcast until 9:00 p.m. PDT on Wednesday, September 26, 2018. Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: www.ppic.org/press-release/ PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT Gas Tax Repeal, Rent Control Propositions Trailing NEWSOM, FEINSTEIN HOLD ON TO DOUBLE-DIGIT LEADS SAN FRANCISCO, September 26, 2018—A slim majority of California’s likely voters oppose Proposition 6, the measure on the November ballot to repeal recently enacted increases in the gas tax and vehicle registration fees. Proposition 10—which would expand the authority of local governments to enact rent control—is also trailing. These are among the key findings of a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC). When likely voters are read the Proposition 6 ballot title and label, 52 percent say they would vote no, 39 percent would vote yes, and 8 percent are undecided about the measure, which would repeal the tax increases on gasoline and diesel fuel signed into law last year to fund road repairs and public transportation. Across parties, half of Republican likely voters (50%) would vote yes. Fewer independents (42%) and Democrats (33%) would do so. Across all demographic groups, fewer than half of likely voters say they would vote yes. Asked about the importance of the outcome of the vote on the measure, 47 percent of likely voters say it is very important to them (37% say it is somewhat important). Among those who would vote yes, 55 percent say the outcome is very important, while 45 percent of those who would vote no express this view. “A slim majority of likely voters say they would vote no on Proposition 6, the gas tax repeal,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO. “Across all of the state’s major regions, fewer than half say they would vote yes.” Proposition 10 would repeal the 1995 Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act, which restricts cities’ ability to implement rent control. Among likely voters, 48 percent would vote no on the proposition; 36 percent would vote yes and 16 percent are undecided. Slim majorities of Republican and independent likely voters (52% each) would vote no on the measure. Democrats are divided (46% yes, 43% no). Regionally, support for Proposition 10 is highest in Los Angeles (45%) and lowest in the Inland Empire (29%). Across all demographic groups, support among likely voters for Proposition 10 tops 50 percent only among those age 18–34 (51%). When asked about the importance of the outcome of the Proposition 10 vote, 42 percent of likely voters say it is very important (33% somewhat important). “Proposition 10, the local rent control initiative, trails by a 12 point margin,” Baldassare said. “The yes votes are falling below a majority among both homeowners and renters.” PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 3 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 Newsom Still Has a Double-Digit Lead, But It’s Smaller In the governor’s race, Democrat Gavin Newsom maintains a double-digit lead over Republican John Cox among likely voters, although the 24 point lead Newsom had in July (55% to 31%) has narrowed to 12 points today. Today, about half (51%) say they would vote for Newsom, while 39 percent would vote for Cox and 7 percent are undecided. Most Democratic likely voters (86%) support Newsom and most Republicans support Cox (85%). Independents are divided (42% Newsom, 37% Cox, 15% undecided). Latino likely voters favor Newsom over Cox by 38 points, while white likely voters are divided. Likely voters in other racial/ethnic groups prefer Newsom by 16 points (sample sizes for Asian American and African American likely voters are too small for separate analysis). A majority of likely voters (59%) are satisfied with their choice of candidates in the governor’s race (32% not satisfied). Most likely voters say they are following news about the candidates very closely (21%) or fairly closely (41%). Feinstein Ahead by 11 Points Dianne Feinstein, who is seeking her fifth full term in the US Senate, leads fellow Democrat Kevin de León by 11 points (40% to 29%) among likely voters, with 8 percent undecided. The margin has also narrowed in this race: in July, Feinstein led by 22 points (46% to 24%). Today, about a quarter of likely voters (23%) volunteer that they would not vote for US senator. When this group is excluded, Feinstein leads de León 52 percent to 37 percent. Across parties, Democratic likely voters favor Feinstein by a two-to-one margin (60% to 30%), while about half of Republicans (52%) and a quarter of independents (26%) say they would not vote for US senator. Feinstein leads among women (46% to 30%), while men are divided (34% Feinstein, 28% de León). She leads among white likely voters (40% to 25%) and those in other racial/ethnic groups (41% to 32%). Latino likely voters are divided (40% Feinstein, 38% de León). Feinstein leads among likely voters age 18–44 (41% to 33%) and among those 45 and older (40% to 27%). Most likely voters (55%) are satisfied with their choice of candidates in this race. Baldassare summed up: “Lieutenant governor Gavin Newsom and incumbent US senator Dianne Feinstein lead their challengers by double digits although by smaller margins than in July.” Most Favor Democratic Candidates in House Races With control of Congress a much-discussed issue, half of California’s likely voters (52%) say this election is more important to them than past midterms. Democratic likely voters (64%) are much more likely than Republicans (48%) and independents (42%) to say this election is more important. Asked about the election for the US House of Representatives, most California likely voters (54%) say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate, while 37 percent would vote for or lean toward the Republican. Most partisans support their own party’s candidate, while independents prefer the Democratic candidate by 11 points. Democratic candidates are favored by a 35 point margin (63% to 28%) in districts held by Democratic members of the House. Republicans are favored by a 21 point margin (55% to 34%) in Republican-held districts. In the 11 districts deemed competitive by the Cook Political Report, likely voters are closely divided, with 44 percent favoring the Republican candidate and 43 percent favoring Democrat. (The competitive districts are 4, 7, 10, 16, 21, 25, 39, 45, 48, 49, and 50, as shown on this congressional map.) When likely voters are asked if they would prefer to elect a House candidate with experience in politics or someone without it, 46 percent prefer experience and fewer (36%) prefer a person new to politics. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 4 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 A Third of Likely Voters Approve of Trump President Trump’s approval rating is 37 percent among likely voters. A stark partisan divide persists: 81 percent of registered Republicans approve of his job performance, and 91 percent of registered Democrats disapprove. A majority of registered independents (60%) disapprove of Trump. Asked to rate Congress, 20 percent of likely voters approve. Majorities of registered voters across parties disapprove of the job Congress is doing (79% Democrats, 65% Republicans, 64% independents). By contrast, at the state level, 53 percent of California likely voters approve of Governor Brown’s job performance and 44 percent approve of the way the legislature is doing its job. When likely voters are asked to rate their own representatives at the state and national levels, 48 percent approve of the job their legislators in the assembly and senate are doing and 56 percent approve of their House representative. As Feinstein campaigns for reelection, she has an approval rating of 53 percent among likely voters. Senator Kamala Harris—who has had a high-profile role in the hearing on US Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh—has a 55 percent approval rating among likely voters. Most Say Supreme Court Choice Important to Them Personally As debate continues over the Kavanaugh nomination, 74 percent of likely voters view the choice of the next Supreme Court justice as very important to them personally (18% somewhat important). Majorities of registered voters across parties say the choice is very important. With abortion policy one of the central issues in the Supreme Court debate, the survey asks likely voters about Roe v. Wade, which established a woman’s constitutional right to abortion. Three-fourths (76%) say they do not want to see the decision overturned. Majorities of registered voters across parties express this view, although Republicans are far less likely to do so (83% Democrats, 75% independents, 53% Republicans). “Three in four likely voters say the choice of the next Supreme Court justice is very important to them,” Baldassare said. “They would not like to see the Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade.” Half Disapprove of Crackdown on Undocumented Immigrants Immigration is another national issue important to California. Half of likely voters (51%) say the federal crackdown on undocumented immigrants is a bad thing for the country. When asked if they worry that someone they know could be deported, 18 percent of likely voters say they worry a lot and 23 percent say they worry some. Jobs, Economy Seen as Most Important Issue Less than two months before the election, California’s likely voters are most likely to name jobs and the economy (18%), immigration (12%), and housing (11%) as the most important issues facing the state. Half (50%) say things in California are generally going in the right direction, and 55 percent say the state will have good times financially in the next year. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 5 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY 2018 California Election SEPTEMBER 2018 Key Findings  Gavin Newsom continues to lead John Cox in the gubernatorial election, but the double-digit margin is smaller than it was in July. Fifty-nine percent of likely voters are satisfied with their choices of candidates, with Democrats far more satisfied than Republicans. (page 7)  In the US Senate election, Senator Dianne Feinstein continues to lead Kevin de León, but the double-digit margin is smaller than it was in July. One in four likely voters— including half of Republicans—volunteer that they would not vote in this race. Fiftyfive percent of likely voters are satisfied with their choices of candidates, with Democrats far more likely than Republicans to be satisfied. (page 8)  Half of likely voters say voting this year is more important than in past midterm elections. Likely voters favor the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate in their House of Representatives election by 17 points, but partisans are divided. Forty-six percent of likely voters would prefer to elect a representative to Congress who has experience in politics instead of someone who is new to politics (36%). (page 9)  Thirty-nine percent of likely voters would vote yes on Proposition 6 (repeal gas tax increase) and 52 percent would vote no. Forty-seven percent of likely voters say the outcome of the vote on Proposition 6 is very important, with yes voters 10 points more likely than no voters to say this. (page 10)  Thirty-six percent of likely voters would vote yes on Proposition 10 (expand rent control authority) and 48 percent would vote no. Four in ten likely voters say the outcome of the vote on Proposition 10 is very important. (page 11) PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Percent likely voters Percent likely voters Percent likely voters 2018 gubernatorial election 100 80 Gavin Newsom John Cox Would not vote for governor (vol) Don’t know 60 55 51 40 31 39 20 9 5 0 July 7 3 September 2018 US Senate election 100 80 Dianne Feinstein Kevin de León Would not vote for US senator (vol) Don’t know 60 46 40 24 20 20 9 40 29 23 8 0 July September November 2018 ballot measures 100 80 Yes No Don’t know 60 52 39 40 20 8 0 Prop 6: Repeal gas tax increase 48 36 16 Prop 10: Expand rent control authority Californians and Their Government 6 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 Gubernatorial Election Less than two months before the November election, six in ten likely voters are following news about the candidates for governor very (21%) or fairly (41%) closely. Attention to news was similar in July (17% very, 42% fairly) but is lower than in September 2010 (30% very, 51% fairly)—when California had partisan primaries and an open gubernatorial election featuring Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman. In the gubernatorial election, Democrat Gavin Newsom leads Republican John Cox by a 12-point margin (51% to 39%) among likely voters, with 7 percent unsure of how they would vote. In our July survey Newsom led Cox by 24 points (55% to 31%). Today, Newsom enjoys the support of most Democrats (86%) while most Republicans (85%) support Cox; independents are divided (42% Newsom, 37% Cox) with 15 percent undecided. Latino likely voters favor Newsom over Cox by 38 points, while white likely voters are divided. Likely voters in other racial/ethnic groups prefer Newsom by 16 points. (Sample sizes for Asian American and African American likely voters are too small for separate analysis.) Likely voters in the San Francisco Bay Area favor Newsom by 44 points (66% to 22%); those in Los Angeles favor Newsom by 25 points (57% to 32%). Cox leads Newsom in the Central Valley (47% to 38%), the Inland Empire (53% to 40%), and in Orange/San Diego (53% to 39%). Men are divided (46% Newsom, 45% Cox), while women favor Newsom over Cox by 23 points (56% to 33%). Newsom leads Cox among likely voters age 18 to 44 by 23 points (56% to 33%); those age 45 and older are divided (48% to 42%). Newsom leads Cox by 25 points among college graduates (57% to 32%), while those without a degree are divided (47% Newsom, 44% Cox). “If the November 6 election for governor were being held today, would you vote for John Cox, a Republican, or Gavin Newsom, a Democrat?” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Gavin Newsom, a Democrat 51% 86% 9% 42% 64% 48% Other groups 51% John Cox, a Republican Would not vote for governor (volunteered) Don’t know 39 3 7 8 85 37 26 43 2 26 4 3 4 4 15 5 6 35 2 11 Six in ten likely voters (59%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the election for governor, while one in three are not satisfied (32%). Satisfaction was similar in September 2014 (55%), but was lower in September 2010 (45%). Today, satisfaction is much higher among Democrats than among Republicans or independents. Satisfaction is highest in the Inland Empire (66%) followed by likely voters in Los Angeles (62%), Orange/San Diego (59%), the San Francisco Bay Area (58%), and the Central Valley (51%). At least half of likely voters across age, income, education, and racial/ethnic groups are satisfied with their choices of candidates. “In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for governor on November 6?” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups Satisfied 59% 72% 44% 50% 65% 60% 52% Not satisfied 32 23 41 39 31 30 35 Don’t know 9 5 15 11 3 10 13 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 7 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 US Senate Election In the US Senate election, Dianne Feinstein—who is seeking her fifth full term as US Senator—leads fellow Democrat Kevin de León by 11 points (40% to 29%) among likely voters, with 23 percent reporting that they will not vote for US Senator and 8 percent undecided. In July Feinstein led de León by 22 points (46% to 24%). Among Democrats today, Feinstein is favored over de León by a two-to-one margin. Half of Republicans and one in four independents say they would not vote for US Senator. When we exclude those who volunteer they would not vote, a majority supports Feinstein over de León (52% to 37%). Feinstein is favored over de León among likely voters in the Central Valley (38% to 22%), Los Angeles (46% to 27%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (48% to 32%), while those in the Inland Empire (27% Feinstein, 32% de León) and Orange/San Diego (31% Feinstein, 37% de León) are divided. Feinstein leads de León by 16 points among women (46% to 30%), while men are divided (34% to 28%). Latino likely voters are divided (40% Feinstein, 38% de León), while Feinstein is favored among white likely voters (40% to 25%) and those in other racial/ethnic groups (41% to 32%). Feinstein leads among likely voters age 18 to 44 (41% to 33%) and among those age 45 and older (40% to 27%). Feinstein leads de León by 11 points among those with and without a college degree (40% to 29% each). “If the November 6 election for the US Senate were being held today, would you vote for Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat, or Kevin de León, a Democrat?” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Ind Latinos Race/Ethnicity Whites Other groups Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat 40% 60% 18% 33% 40% 40% 41% Kevin de León, a Democrat 29 30 21 28 38 Would not vote for US senator (volunteered) 23 3 52 26 17 Don’t know 8 7 9 13 5 25 26 9 32 16 10 A majority of likely voters (55%) are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the election for US Senate. Satisfaction today is similar to September 2016 (48%), when Senator Kamala Harris defeated fellow Democrat Loretta Sanchez, but is slightly lower than in September 2010 (64%), when Senator Barbara Boxer defeated Republican Carly Fiorina. (We did not survey Feinstein’s 2012 reelection bid.) There is a wide gap in satisfaction between Democrats and Republicans, with three in four Democrats satisfied and about two in three Republicans not satisfied. Independents are more likely to be satisfied than not satisfied. Satisfaction among likely voters is highest in the San Francisco Bay Area (65%), followed by Los Angeles (59%), the Central Valley (51%), Orange/San Diego (45%), and the Inland Empire (40%). Satisfaction is higher among likely voters age 18 to 44 (60%) than among older likely voters (52%), while it is similar among those who graduated college (56%) and those who have not (54%). Among those who are not satisfied, 49 percent say they would not vote for US Senator (19% would vote for Feinstein, 29% for de León). Among those who are satisfied, Feinstein leads de León by 27 points (57% to 30%). “In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for US Senate on November 6?” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Race/Ethnicity Ind Latinos Whites Other groups Satisfied 55% 76% 27% 48% 62% 48% 67% Not satisfied 37 17 64 38 30 42 26 Don’t know 8 6 9 14 7 9 8 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 8 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 Congressional Elections Much has been made of this midterm election and what it means regarding control of Congress. Half of California’s likely voters (52%) agree that this election is more important to them than past midterms. Forty-four percent say the importance of this midterm is about the same as that of past midterms. Findings were similar in March (51% more important, 48% about the same). Democratic likely voters (64%) are much more likely than Republicans (48%) and independents (42%) to say this election is more important. If the 2018 election for US House of Representatives were held today, a majority of likely voters (54%) say they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate, while 37 percent would vote for or lean toward the Republican candidate. In our May survey the Democratic candidate was preferred by 14 points (52% to 38%). Findings among registered voters in our survey (54% Democratic candidate, 35% Republican candidate) are similar to nationwide findings in a September CNN poll (52% Democratic candidate, 40% Republican candidate). Most partisan likely voters would support their party’s candidate, while independents prefer the Democratic candidate by 11 points. Democratic candidates are preferred by a 35-point margin (63% to 28%) in Democratic-held districts, while Republican candidates are preferred by a 21-point margin (55% to 34%) in Republican-held districts. The Democratic candidate is preferred by large margins in the San Francisco Bay Area (72% to 26%) and Los Angeles (60% to 24%), while the Republican candidate is preferred by narrow margins in the Inland Empire (50% to 41%), Orange/San Diego (50% to 43%), and the Central Valley (45% to 40%). In the 11 districts currently deemed competitive by the Cook Political Report, likely voters are divided (44% Republican candidate, 43% Democratic candidate). (Nine of these seats are currently held by Republicans; for more information see page 22.) “If the 2018 election for US House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district? (If other/unsure: As of today, do you lean more toward the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?)” Likely voters only Republican/Lean Republican Democratic/Lean Democratic Don’t know All likely voters 37% 54 9 Dem 4% 92 3 Party Rep 87% 4 9 Ind 33% 44 23 Race/Ethnicity Latinos Whites Other groups 27% 46% 19% 68 47 65 6 7 16 Competitive house districts 44% 43 14 Forty-six percent prefer to elect a representative to Congress who has experience in politics, while 36 percent would prefer someone who is new to politics. Findings were similar in March (52% experience, 36% new to politics). Today, most Democrats (58%) prefer experience in politics while a plurality of Republicans prefer someone who is new to politics (46%). Experience is preferred in the Central Valley (44% to 37%), Los Angeles (47% to 38%), and the San Francisco Bay Area (52% to 32%), while being new to politics is preferred in the Inland Empire (44% to 34%) and Orange/San Diego (42% to 36%). “Would you prefer to elect a representative to Congress who has experience in politics, or is new to politics?” Likely voters only Has experience in politics Is new to politics Both (volunteered) All likely voters 46% 36 4 Dem 58% 27 4 Party Rep 32% 46 3 Ind 35% 41 6 Race/Ethnicity Latinos Whites Other groups 52% 44% 46% 41 33 40 – 62 Competitive house districts 42% 33 3 Don't know 14 10 19 18 7 18 12 21 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 9 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 Proposition 6: Repealing the Gas Tax Increase In April 2017, Senate Bill (SB) 1 was signed into law by Governor Brown. The new law increased taxes on gasoline and diesel fuel, and increased vehicle registration fees. The revenue generated by these tax and fee increases is expected to fund transportation infrastructure projects across the state. In November, Californians will vote on Proposition 6, which would repeal these recently enacted fuel taxes and vehicle fees. When read the Proposition 6 ballot title and label, a slight majority of likely voters (52%) would vote no; 39 percent would vote yes, and 8 percent are undecided. Half of Republican likely voters (50%) would vote yes on Proposition 6, while fewer independents (42%) and Democrats (33%) would do so. Proposition 6 fails to garner majority support across all regions of the state. Indeed, fewer than half of likely voters across all demographic groups say they would vote yes on Proposition 6. Notably, Californians with a household income below $40,000 are more likely than those with higher incomes to say they would vote yes on Proposition 6. When asked a more general question about repealing the recent increases, likely voters are divided (50% favor, 46% oppose). “Proposition 6 is called the ‘Eliminates Certain Road Repair and Transportation Funding. Requires Certain Fuel Taxes and Vehicle Fees be Approved by the Electorate. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 6?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 39% 52% 8% Democrats 33 62 5 Party Republicans 50 41 9 Independents 42 47 11 Central Valley 45 50 5 Inland Empire 38 57 5 Region Los Angeles 43 50 7 Orange/San Diego 35 50 15 San Francisco Bay Area 43 51 6 Under $40,000 47 44 9 Household Income $40,000 to under $80,000 39 57 5 $80,000 or more 37 55 8 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 25. Forty-seven percent of likely voters say that the outcome of the vote on Proposition 6 is very important to them, while a further 37 percent say it is somewhat important. Republican likely voters (61%) are much more likely than Democrats and independents (43% each) to say the outcome of Proposition 6 is very important. Among those who would vote yes on Proposition 6, 55 percent say the outcome is very important; among those who would vote no, 45 percent say the outcome of the vote is very important. “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 6?” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Ind Very important 47% 43% 61% 43% Somewhat important 37 41 26 39 Not too important 11 12 5 13 Not at all important 2 2 2 3 Don’t know 3 2 53 Vote on Proposition 6 Yes No 55% 45% 35 40 9 11 14 –1 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 10 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 Proposition 10: Expanding Rent Control Authority Proposition 10 would expand the authority local governments have to enact rent control by repealing the 1995 Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act, which limited the ability of cities to broaden the types of residential units that could be covered under rent control ordinances. When read the Proposition 10 ballot title and label, 48 percent of likely voters would vote no; 36 percent would vote yes, and 16 percent are undecided. Slight majorities of Republican and independent likely voters (52% each) would vote no on the measure, while Democrats are divided (46% yes, 43% no). Regionally, support for Proposition 10 is highest in Los Angeles (45%) and lowest in the Inland Empire (29%). Notably, slight majorities of likely voters in the San Francisco Bay Area (54%) and the Inland Empire (51%) say they would vote no on Proposition 10. Though renters are more likely than homeowners to support Proposition 10 (43% to 31%), about half of both groups would vote no if the election were held today. Across all demographic groups, support among likely voters for Proposition 10 exceeds 50 percent only among 18 to 34 year olds (51%). When asked a more general question about rent control by local governments, 52 percent of likely voters say it is a good thing, while 41 percent say it is a bad thing. “Proposition 10 is called the ‘Expands Local Governments’ Authority to Enact Rent Control on Residential Property. Initiative Statute.’ If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 10?”* Likely voters only Yes No Don’t know All likely voters 36% 48% 16% Democrats 46 43 10 Party Republicans 22 52 26 Independents 31 52 17 Central Valley 39 47 15 Inland Empire 29 51 21 Region Los Angeles 45 45 10 Orange/San Diego 33 47 20 San Francisco Bay Area 32 54 15 Home ownership Own Rent 31 49 43 51 20 6 *For complete text of proposition question, see p. 25. Forty-two percent of likely voters say that the outcome of the vote on Proposition 10 is very important to them, while a further 33 percent say it is somewhat important. Views on its importance are similar across parties and among those who would vote yes and those who would vote no on this proposition. Notably, renters (54%) are much more likely than homeowners (38%) to say that the outcome of the vote on Proposition 10 is very important to them. “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 10?” Likely voters only All likely voters Dem Party Rep Ind Very important 42% 44% 39% 45% Somewhat important 33 31 34 31 Not too important 16 17 19 13 Not at all important 4 3 4 3 Don’t know 5 5 47 Vote on Proposition 10 Yes No 46% 37 15 1 1 45% 32 17 6 1 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 11 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY State and National Issues SEPTEMBER 2018 Key Findings  Just under half of Californians approve of the job performance of Governor Brown, the state legislature overall, and the state legislator representing their assembly and senate districts. (page 13)  About three in ten Californians approve of the job performance of President Trump and that of Congress overall. Just under half of Californians approve of their representative to the US House of Representatives, while Senators Feinstein and Harris each have 44 percent approval. (pages 14, 15)  Jobs and the economy (22%) is mentioned most often when asked what is the most important issue facing California today. Half of Californians say things in California are going in the right direction and expect good times financially. (page 16)  Half of Californians—with partisans divided—think the federal crackdown on undocumented immigrants is a bad thing for the country. Half of adults—and seven in ten Latinos—say they worry a lot or some that someone they know will be deported as a result of increased federal immigration enforcement. (page 17)  Six in ten Californians—and majorities across partisan groups—say the choice of the next Supreme Court justice is very important to them personally. Two in three say they do not want to see the Supreme Court overturn its Roe v. Wade decision. (page 18)  Californians are divided on whether they prefer to pay higher taxes and have more state government services or pay lower taxes and have fewer services. A majority of Californians—with partisans divided—say the state government should do more to reduce the gap between rich and poor. (page 19) PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Percent Percent all adults Percent all adults Approval ratings of state elected officials 100 Governor Brown California Legislature 80 60 49 40 46 20 0 Approval ratings of federal elected officials 100 President Trump US Congress 80 60 40 33 30 20 30 28 0 Importance of choice of next Supreme Court justice 100 % saying very important 80 74 74 59 60 63 58 40 20 0 All adults Dem Rep Ind Likely voters Californians and Their Government 12 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 Approval Ratings of State Elected Officials In the wake of the Global Climate Action Summit that featured the state’s environmental leadership under Jerry Brown, the governor’s approval rating stands at 49 percent among California adults and 53 percent among likely voters. The governor’s approval ratings were in a similar range in July (52% adults, 54% likely voters) and last September (55% adults, 55% likely voters). Today, the governor’s approval rating stands at 71 percent among Democrats, 44 percent among independents, and 14 percent among Republicans. Majorities of adults approve in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles. Majorities of Asian Americans (55%), Latinos (54%), and African Americans (53%) approve; fewer whites (43%) do so. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California?” Approve Disapprove Don’t know All adults 49% 32% 20% Likely voters 53 41 7 Democrats 71 19 10 Party Republicans 14 75 11 Independents 44 33 23 Central Valley 43 38 18 Inland Empire 41 46 14 Region Los Angeles 58 29 13 Orange/San Diego 36 35 29 San Francisco Bay Area 58 20 23 The state legislature’s approval rating has held relatively steady at 46 percent among adults and 44 percent among likely voters. Approval of the legislature was similar in July (46% adults, 46% likely voters) and last September (49% adults, 44% likely voters). Today, 61 percent of Democrats, 37 percent of independents, and 17 percent of Republicans express approval. Majorities of adults in Los Angeles (54%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (51%)—but fewer than half in other regions—approve. Half or more of Asian Americans (59%), Latinos (53%), and African Americans (50%) approve; fewer whites (37%) do. Forty-seven percent of adults and 48 percent of likely voters approve of the way that the state legislators representing their assembly and senate districts are doing their jobs. The levels of approval were similar in March (49% adults, 46% likely voters) and in September 2016 (52% adults, 49% likely voters). Today, 62 percent of Democrats, 37 percent of independents, and 28 percent of Republicans approve. Majorities in Los Angeles (59%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (51%)—but fewer than half in other regions—express approval. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of …?” All adults the way that the California Legislature is handling its job the job that the state legislators representing your assembly and senate districts are doing at this time Approve Disapprove Don't know Approve Disapprove Don't know 46% 37 17 47 33 20 Dem 61% 27 12 62 25 13 Party Rep 17% 73 11 28 60 12 Likely Ind voters 37% 44% 44 46 19 10 37 48 39 39 24 14 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 13 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 Approval Ratings of Federal Elected Officials President Trump’s approval rating (30% adults, 37% likely voters) is similar to his rating in July (29% adults, 34% likely voters) and last September (27% adults, 31% likely voters). Today, 81 percent of Republicans, 34 percent of independents, and 9 percent of Democrats approve of President Trump. Across the state’s regions, the president’s approval rating is lower in the San Francisco Bay Area (20%) and Los Angeles (25%) than it is elsewhere (34% Central Valley, 34% Orange/San Diego, 40% Inland Empire). Across racial/ethnic groups, whites (42%) are more likely than Asian Americans (28%), Latinos (17%), and African Americans (14%) to approve. A recent Gallup weekly tracking poll had adults nationwide giving the president a somewhat higher approval rating (38% approve, 56% disapprove). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president?” Approve Disapprove Don’t know All adults 30% 66% 5% Likely voters 37 61 2 Democrats 9 91 1 Party Republicans 81 16 3 Independents 34 60 6 Central Valley 34 62 4 Inland Empire 40 56 5 Region Los Angeles 25 72 2 Orange/San Diego 34 55 11 San Francisco Bay Area 20 76 4 Twenty-eight percent of adults and 20 percent of likely voters approve of the way the US Congress is handling its job. Approval of the US Congress was similar in July (20% adults, 14% likely voters) and last September (24% adults, 18% likely voters). Today, one in four Republicans (26%) and independents (24%) approve, but fewer Democrats (16%) do. Across regions, fewer than one in three adults approve of the US Congress. Across racial/ethnic groups, approval is at 20 percent among whites, 25 percent among Asian Americans, 26 percent among African Americans, and 41 percent among Latinos. Nationwide approval of the US Congress was at 19 percent in a September Gallup poll. Forty-seven percent of adults and 56 percent of likely voters approve of their own representatives to the US House. Approval ratings among likely voters were similar in March (52% adults, 53% likely voters) and somewhat lower in September 2016 (51% adults, 47% likely voters). Today, majorities of Democrats (59%)—but fewer independents (49%) and Republicans (43%)—approve. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of …?” All adults the way the US Congress is handling its job the way your own representative to the US House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job Approve Disapprove Don't know Approve Disapprove Don't know 28% 61 10 47 32 20 Dem 16% 79 5 59 27 15 Party Rep 26% 65 8 43 43 14 Likely Ind voters 24% 20% 64 74 11 7 49 56 36 34 15 10 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 14 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 Approval Ratings of California’s Senators In the midst of a fall reelection campaign, 44 percent of adults and 53 percent of likely voters approve of the way that Senator Feinstein is handling her job. Approval was similar in March (45% adults, 54% likely voters) and last September (48% adults, 54% likely voters). Today, 68 percent of Democrats, 47 percent of independents, and 20 percent of Republicans approve. Majorities in the San Francisco Bay Area (54%) and Los Angeles (52%)—but fewer than half in other regions—approve. Approval is higher among African Americans (65%) than among other racial/ethnic groups (45% Asian Americans, 45% whites, 40% Latinos), and approval is higher among older adults (38% under 35, 46% 35 to 54, 50% 55 and older). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Dianne Feinstein is handling her job as US senator?” Approve Disapprove Don’t know All adults 44% 35% 20% Likely voters 53 42 6 Democrats 68 22 10 Party Republicans 20 75 4 Independents 47 39 15 Central Valley 38 37 25 Inland Empire 29 47 23 Region Los Angeles 52 31 17 Orange/San Diego 35 46 19 San Francisco Bay Area 54 25 21 In the wake of her high-profile role in the Senate hearings for the US Supreme Court nominee, Kamala Harris has a 44 percent approval rating among adults and 55 percent approval among likely voters. The senator’s approval rating among likely voters was somewhat lower in March (41% adults, 45% likely voters) and last September (42% adults, 47% likely voters). Today, 70 percent of Democrats, 48 percent of independents, and 18 percent of Republicans approve. About half in the San Francisco Bay Area (52%) and Los Angeles (49%) approve, while fewer approve in other regions. Approval is higher among African Americans (63%) and Asian Americans (56%) than among whites (43%) and Latinos (39%). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Kamala Harris is handling her job as US senator?” Approve Disapprove Don’t know All adults 44% 27% 29% Likely voters 55 31 14 Democrats 70 14 17 Republicans 18 55 28 Independents 48 30 22 Central Valley 35 28 37 Inland Empire 40 36 24 Region Los Angeles 49 25 26 Orange/San Diego 38 31 32 San Francisco Bay Area 52 19 29 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 15 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 Overall Mood Californians are most likely to name jobs and the economy (22% adults, 18% likely voters), immigration (10% adults, 12% likely voters), and housing (9% adults, 11% likely voters) as the most important issues facing California today. Jobs and the economy is the top issue across all regions. About half of adults (51%) and likely voters (50%) say that things in California are generally going in the right direction. Optimism levels were similar in January (57% adults, 54% likely voters) and last September (54% adults, 51% likely voters). Today, Democrats (70%) are far more likely than independents (45%) and Republicans (16%) to say things are going in the right direction. Majorities in Los Angeles (56%), the San Francisco Bay Area (56%), and Orange/San Diego (51%)—but fewer in the Central Valley (46%) and the Inland Empire (39%)—hold this view. Majorities of Asian Americans (59%), Latinos (57%), and African Americans (56%) think things are going in the right direction, while fewer whites (46%) have this perception. “Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?” Right direction Wrong direction Don’t know All adults 51% 43% 6% Likely voters 50 47 3 Democrats 70 25 5 Party Republicans 16 81 3 Independents 45 48 7 Central Valley 46 49 5 Inland Empire 39 52 9 Region Los Angeles 56 38 5 Orange/San Diego 51 47 2 San Francisco Bay Area 56 36 8 Slight majorities of adults (53%) and likely voters (55%) say that the state will have good times financially in the next 12 months. Expectations for good times were similar in May (51% adults, 50% likely voters) and last September (51% adults, 51% likely voters). Today, six in ten Democrats expect good times, compared with fewer independents (45%) and Republicans (43%). Majorities across regions—with the exception of the Inland Empire—expect good times financially. Asian Americans (64%), Latinos (54%), and whites (51%) are more likely than African Americans (42%) to expect good times. “Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?” Good times Bad times Don’t know All adults 53% 37% 10% Likely voters 55 38 7 Democrats 60 31 9 Party Republicans 43 52 5 Independents 45 48 7 Central Valley 51 43 7 Inland Empire 43 41 17 Region Los Angeles 52 36 11 Orange/San Diego 57 34 10 San Francisco Bay Area 56 34 9 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 16 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 Immigration Policy Amid continued federal immigration enforcement, half of California adults (51%) and likely voters (51%) think the federal crackdown on undocumented immigrants is a bad thing for the country. Findings were similar in March, when 51 percent of adults and 49 percent of likely voters saw the crackdown as a bad thing. Today, there are stark partisan differences on this issue: 78 percent of Democrats say the crackdown is a bad thing for the country but 74 percent of Republicans say it is a good thing. A majority of independents (56%) say it is a bad thing. At least half of African Americans (65%), Latinos (54%), and Asian Americans (52%) say the crackdown is a bad thing, while whites are divided (47% bad, 45% good). Majorities in Los Angeles (62%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (55%) say it is a bad thing, while fewer in other regions (46% Central Valley, 41% Inland Empire, 39% Orange/San Diego) hold this view. Californians age 18 to 34 (59%) are more likely than older residents (48% age 35 to 54, 46% age 55 and older) to say the crackdown is a bad thing. “Do you think the federal crackdown on undocumented immigrants is a good thing for the country or a bad thing for the country?” Good thing All adults 39% Dem 17% Party Rep 74% Ind 33% African Americans 26% Race/Ethnicity Asian Americans Latinos 38% 34% Whites 45% Bad thing 51 78 16 56 65 52 54 47 Mixed/neither (volunteered) 5 3 4 6 3 4 45 Don't know 5 2 5 5 6 6 73 Nearly half of Californians say they worry a lot (29%) or some (20%) that someone they know could be deported; among likely voters, 18 percent worry a lot and 23 percent worry some. Findings were similar among adults in December, when 28 percent said they worried a lot and 20 percent worried some. Today, Democrats (31% a lot, 25% some) and independents (27% a lot, 28% some) are far more likely than Republicans (7% a lot, 11% some) to worry a lot or some that someone they know will be deported. Notably, Latinos (55%) are more likely than other racial/ethnic groups (30% African Americans, 19% Asian Americans, 14% whites) to say they worry a lot. Californians under age 55 are more likely than older adults to say they worry a lot (33% to 22%). Across regions, residents of Los Angeles (39%) are the most likely to say they worry a lot (30% Central Valley, 26% San Francisco Bay Area, 21% Orange/San Diego, 20% Inland Empire). Californians with no college education (45%) are much more likely than those with some college (21%) and college graduates (17%) to say they worry a lot. Similarly, those with annual household incomes under $40,000 (43%) are much more likely than those with higher incomes (26% $40,000 to $80,000, 16% $80,000 or more) to say they worry a lot. “When it comes to increased federal immigration enforcement, how much do you worry that someone that you know could be deported? Would you say that you worry a lot, some, not much, or not at all?” A lot All adults 29% Dem 31% Party Rep 7% Ind 27% African Americans 30% Race/Ethnicity Asian Americans Latinos 19% 55% Whites 14% Some 20 25 11 28 16 26 18 19 Not much 15 17 16 14 21 21 8 18 Not at all 34 24 66 31 31 30 18 47 Don't know 2 3 – – 2 3 11 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 17 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 The Supreme Court and Abortion On July 9, President Trump nominated Brett Kavanaugh to replace Justice Anthony Kennedy on the US Supreme Court. This choice has the potential to solidify the conservative ideological balance of the court. Nearly all Californians view the choice of the next Supreme Court justice as either very (59%) or somewhat (24%) important to them personally. Likely voters are somewhat more likely to view the choice as important (74% very, 18% somewhat). While majorities across parties view the outcome as very important, Democrats (74%) are more likely than Republicans (63%) or independents (58%) to hold this view. Majorities across regions and demographic groups say the choice is personally very important. Similar proportions of men (61%) and women (58%) say the choice is very important. Among racial/ethnic groups, Asian Americans (65%) and whites (63%) are the most likely to say the choice is very important (58% African Americans, 54% Latinos). Similar shares of adults nationwide (63% very, 20% somewhat) said the choice was personally important to them in a July Pew Research Center poll. “How important is the choice of the next Supreme Court justice to you personally: very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important?” All adults 18-34 Age 35-54 55 and older African Americans Race/Ethnicity Asian Americans Latinos Very important 59% 53% 59% 68% 58% 65% 54% Somewhat important 24 29 25 17 23 19 27 Not too important 8 10 8 6 5 9 9 Not at all important 6 5 5 7 14 4 4 Don’t know 33 33 1 3 5 Whites 63% 23 8 6 1 As the Senate considers President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, abortion policy is a central issue. In 1973, the Supreme Court’s decision in Roe v. Wade established a women’s constitutional right to an abortion. Today, 66 percent of adults and 76 percent of likely voters say they do not want to see that decision overturned. Since 2005, in response to a similar question, at least 65 percent of Californians have held this view. Today, majorities across parties do not want Roe v. Wade overturned, with Democrats (83%) and independents (75%) far more likely than Republicans (53%) to hold this view. Support for not overturning Roe v. Wade rises with higher education and income levels, though majorities across education and income groups do not want it overturned. Two in three women (67%) and men (65%) and majorities across racial/ethnic groups do not want it overturned. Among those who say the decision should not be overturned, 62 percent say the choice of the next Supreme Court justice is personally very important to them. Among those who say the choice of the next Supreme Court justice is personally very important, 69 percent do not want Roe v. Wade overturned. In a June Kaiser Family Foundation survey, opinions among adults nationwide (67% do not want overturn, 29% overturn) were similar to those of Californians in our survey. “As you may know, the 1973 Supreme Court case Roe v. Wade established a women’s constitutional right to have an abortion. Would you like to see the Supreme Court overturn its Roe v. Wade decision, or not?” Yes, overturn All adults 26% 18-34 27% Age 35-54 26% 55 and older 26% African Americans 24% Race/Ethnicity Asian Americans Latinos 11% 38% No, not overturn 66 67 65 68 71 78 55 Don’t know 7 6 9 6 5 11 7 Whites 23% 72 5 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 18 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 Role of State Government About half of Californians (50% adults, 49% likely voters) say they would rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, while slightly fewer would rather pay lower taxes and have fewer services (44% adults, 46% likely voters). In January 2017, views were similar: about half of Californians (52% adults, 49% likely voters) said they would rather pay higher taxes and have more services, slightly fewer said they would prefer the opposite (43% adults, 47% likely voters). Today, Democrats (71%) are far more likely than independents (44%) and Republicans (20%) to prefer higher taxes and more services. The preference for higher taxes and more services is slightly more common in the San Francisco Bay Area (56%) and Los Angeles (55%) than in other regions (47% Orange/San Diego, 45% Central Valley, 38% Inland Empire). This view is also more common among women (56%) than men (44%). Latinos (60%) and African Americans (59%) are more likely than Asian Americans (48%) and whites (45%) to hold this view. The preference for paying higher taxes and having more services is less common among older adults, homeowners, and adults with higher incomes. “In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more: I’d rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, or I’d rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services?” Higher taxes and more services Lower taxes and fewer services Don’t know All adults 50% 44 6 Dem 71% 26 4 Party Rep 20% 75 5 Ind 44% 50 6 Race/Ethnicity African Asian Americans Americans Latinos 59% 48% 60% 39 50 33 3 27 Whites 45% 49 6 Six in ten adults (60%) and a majority of likely voters (53%) say the state government should do more to reduce the gap between rich and poor in California. A third of adults (32%) and four in ten likely voters (43%) say the state government should not do this. In our May 2017 survey, similar proportions said the state government should do more (61% adults, 52% likely voters). Today, three in four Democrats (77%) and a majority of independents (56%) say the state government should do more to reduce the gap, while seven in ten Republicans (71%) say the state should not do so. At least half of Californians across demographic groups say the state should do more. Renters (68%) and those with household incomes below $40,000 (68%) are more likely than homeowners (53%) and those with incomes of $80,000 or more (54%) to say the state should do more. Californians under age 55 are more likely than older adults to say the state should do more (65% to 51%). Across racial/ethnic groups, African Americans (82%) are the most likely to say the state should do more (68% Latinos, 66% Asian Americans, 50% whites). Among adults who prefer to pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, 77 percent say the state should do more, while 42 percent of those who prefer pay lower taxes and have fewer services hold this view. “Should the state government be doing more to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor in California, or is this something that the state government should not be doing?” Should do more All adults 60% Dem 77% Party Rep 25% Ind 56% African Americans 82% Race/Ethnicity Asian Americans Latinos 66% 68% Should not be doing 32 16 71 39 14 23 25 Don’t know 8 7 4 5 5 10 7 Whites 50% 43 6 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 19 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Regional Map SEPTEMBER 2018 PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 20 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Methodology SEPTEMBER 2018 The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, president and CEO and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance from associate survey director Dean Bonner, project manager for this survey, and survey research associates Alyssa Dykman and Lunna Lopes. The Californians and Their Government series is supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle. The PPIC Statewide Survey invites input, comments, and suggestions from policy and public opinion experts and from its own advisory committee members, but survey methods, questions, and content are determined solely by PPIC’s survey team. Findings in this report are based on a survey of 1,710 California adult residents, including 1,195 interviewed on cell phones and 515 interviewed on landline telephones. Interviews took an average of 17 minutes to complete. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights from September 9–18, 2018. Cell phone interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of cell phone numbers. All cell phone numbers with California area codes were eligible for selection. Once a cell phone user was reached, it was verified that this person was age 18 or older, a resident of California, and in a safe place to continue the survey (e.g., not driving). Cell phone respondents were offered a small reimbursement to help defray the cost of the call. Cell phone interviews were conducted with adults who have cell phone service only and with those who have both cell phone and landline service in the household. Landline interviews were conducted using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All landline telephone exchanges in California were eligible for selection. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. For both cell phones and landlines, telephone numbers were called as many as eight times. When no contact with an individual was made, calls to a number were limited to six. Also, to increase our ability to interview Asian American adults, we made up to three additional calls to phone numbers estimated by Survey Sampling International as likely to be associated with Asian American individuals. Live landline and cell phone interviews were conducted by Abt Associates in English and Spanish, according to respondents’ preferences. Accent on Languages, Inc., translated new survey questions into Spanish, with assistance from Renatta DeFever. Abt Associates uses the US Census Bureau’s 2012–2016 American Community Survey’s (ACS) Public Use Microdata Series for California (with regional coding information from the University of Minnesota’s Integrated Public Use Microdata Series for California) to compare certain demographic characteristics of the survey sample—region, age, gender, race/ethnicity, and education—with the characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the ACS figures. To estimate landline and cell phone service in California, Abt Associates used 2016 state-level estimates released by the National Center for Health Statistics—which used data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the ACS. The estimates for California were then compared against landline and cell phone service reported in this survey. We also used voter registration data from the California Secretary of State to compare the party registration of registered voters in our sample to party registration statewide. The landline and cell phone samples were then integrated using a frame integration weight, while sample balancing adjusted for differences across regional, age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, telephone service, and party registration groups. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 21 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 The sampling error, taking design effects from weighting into consideration, is ±3.5 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total unweighted sample of 1,710 adults. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 3.5 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for unweighted subgroups is larger: for the 1,349 registered voters, the sampling error is ±4 percent; for the 964 likely voters, it is ±4.8 percent; for the 185 likely voters in competitive congressional districts, it is ±11.4 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. We present results for five geographic regions, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “San Francisco Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, “Inland Empire” refers to Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, and “Orange/San Diego” refers to Orange and San Diego Counties. Residents of other geographic areas are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes for these less populous areas are not large enough to report separately. We also present results for congressional districts currently held by Democrats or Republicans, based on residential zip code and party of the local US House member. We analyze the results of those who live in competitive house districts as determined by the Cook Political Report’s 2018 House Race Ratings updated September 19, 2018. These districts are 4, 7, 10, 16, 21, 25, 39, 45, 48, 49, and 50 and a map of California’s congressional districts can be found here. We present results for non-Hispanic whites, who account for 42 percent of the state’s adult population, and also for Latinos, who account for about a third of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest-growing voter groups. We also present results for non-Hispanic Asian Americans, who make up about 15 percent of the state’s adult population, and non-Hispanic African Americans, who comprise about 6 percent. Results for other racial/ethnic groups—such as Native Americans—are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters, but sample sizes are not large enough for separate analysis. Results for African American and Asian American likely voters are combined with those of other racial/ethnic groups because sample sizes for African American and Asian American likely voters are too small for separate analysis. We compare the opinions of those who report they are registered Democrats, registered Republicans, and decline-to-state or independent voters; the results for those who say they are registered to vote in other parties are not large enough for separate analysis. We also analyze the responses of likely voters—so designated per their responses to survey questions about voter registration, previous election participation, intentions to vote this year, attention to election news, and current interest in politics. The percentages presented in the report tables and in the questionnaire may not add to 100 due to rounding. We compare current PPIC Statewide Survey results to those in our earlier surveys and to those in national surveys by ABC/Washington Post, CNN, Gallup, Kaiser Family Foundation, and Pew Research Center. Additional details about our methodology can be found at www.ppic.org/wpcontent/uploads/SurveyMethodology.pdf and are available upon request through surveys@ppic.org. PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 22 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Questionnaire and Results SEPTEMBER 2018 CALIFORNIANS AND THEIR GOVERNMENT September 9-18, 2018 1,710 California Adult Residents: English, Spanish MARGIN OF ERROR ±3.5% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100 DUE TO ROUNDING First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today? [code, don’t read] 22% 10 9 7 6 6 5 5 5 3 3 2 13 4 jobs, economy immigration, illegal immigration housing costs, availability government in general, problems with elected officials, parties environment, pollution, global warming homelessness crime, gangs, drugs state budget, deficit, taxes water, drought infrastructure health care, health insurance education, schools, teachers other (specify) don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Jerry Brown is handling his job as governor of California? 49% approve 32 disapprove 20 don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job? 46% approve 37 disapprove 17 don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that the state legislators representing your assembly and senate districts are doing at this time? 47% 33 20 approve disapprove don’t know Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 51% 43 6 right direction wrong direction don’t know Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 53% 37 10 good times bad times don’t know Next, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote in California? 68% yes [ask q7a] 32 no [skip to q8b] 7a. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or are you registered as a decline-to-state or independent voter? 44% 25 5 25 Democrat [ask q8] Republican [skip to q8a] another party (specify) [skip to q9] independent [skip to q8b] PPIC.ORG/SURVEYCalifornians and Their GovernmentError! No document variable supplied.Error! No document variable supplied. 23 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 58% 41 2 strong not very strong don’t know [skip to q9] 8a. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 66% 27 7 strong not very strong don’t know [skip to q9] 8b. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party? 24% 45 23 8 Republican Party Democratic Party neither (volunteered) don’t know [likely voters only] If the November 6th election for governor were being held today, would you vote for [rotate] [1] John Cox, a Republican, [or] [2] Gavin Newsom, a Democrat? 51% 39 3 7 Gavin Newsom, a Democrat John Cox, a Republican neither/would not vote for governor (volunteered) don’t know [likely voters only] How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2018 governor’s election—very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 21% 41 27 11 – very closely fairly closely not too closely not at all closely don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2018 [likely voters only] In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for governor on November 6th? 59% 32 9 satisfied not satisfied don’t know [likely voters only] If the November 6th election for the US Senate were being held today, would you vote for [rotate] [1] Kevin De León, a Democrat, [or] [2] Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat? 40% 29 23 8 Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat Kevin de León, a Democrat neither/would not vote for US Senator (volunteered) don’t know [likely voters only] In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for US Senate on November 6th? 55% 37 8 satisfied not satisfied don’t know Changing topics, [likely voters only] Is voting this year more important to you than in past midterm elections, less important, or about the same? 52% 3 44 – – more important less important about the same first year that I’m eligible (volunteered) don’t know [likely voters only] If the 2018 election for US House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for [rotate] [1] the Republican candidate [or] [2] the Democratic candidate in your district? [If other/don’t know: As of today, do you lean more toward [read in same order as above] [1] the Republican candidate [or] [2] the Democratic candidate? 37% 54 9 Rep/lean Rep Dem/lean Dem don’t know Californians and Their Government 24 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY [likely voters only] Would you prefer to elect a representative to Congress who—[rotate] (1) has experience in politics [or] (2) is new to politics? 46% 36 4 14 has experience in politics is new to politics both (volunteered) don’t know Next, we have a few questions to ask you about some of the propositions on the November ballot. [likely voters only] Proposition 6 is called the “Eliminates Certain Road Repair and Transportation Funding. Requires Certain Fuel Taxes and Vehicle Fees be Approved by the Electorate. Initiative Constitutional Amendment.” It repeals a 2017 transportation law’s taxes and fees designated for road repairs and public transportation. The fiscal impact is reduced ongoing revenues of $5.1 billion from state fuel and vehicle taxes that mainly would have paid for highway and road maintenance and repairs, as well as transit programs. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 6? 39% 52 8 yes no don’t know [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 6— is it very important, somewhat important, no too important, or not at all important? 47% 37 11 2 3 very important somewhat important not too important not at all important don’t know SEPTEMBER 2018 [likely voters only] Proposition 10 is called the “Expands Local Governments’ Authority to Enact Rent Control on Residential Property. Initiative Statute.” It repeals state law that currently restricts the scope of rent-control policies that cities and other local jurisdictions may impose on residential property. The fiscal impact is potential net reduction in state and local revenues of tens of millions of dollars per year in the long term. Depending on actions by local communities, revenue losses could be less or considerably more. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 10? 36% 48 16 yes no don’t know [likely voters only] How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 10—is it very important, somewhat important, no too important, or not at all important? 42% 33 16 4 5 very important somewhat important not too important not at all important don’t know Next, In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more— [rotate] (1) I’d rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, [or] (2) I’d rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services? 50% 44 6 higher taxes and more services lower taxes and fewer services don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 25 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Should the state government be doing more to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor in California, or is this something that the state government should not be doing? 60% 32 8 should do more should not do more don’t know Next, Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president? 30% 66 5 approve disapprove don’t know [rotate questions 24 and 25] Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Kamala Harris is handling her job as US senator? 44% 27 29 approve disapprove don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Dianne Feinstein is handling her job as US senator? 44% 35 20 approve disapprove don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the US Congress is handling its job? 28% 61 10 approve disapprove don’t know Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way your own representative to the US House of Representatives in Congress is handling his or her job? 47% 32 20 approve disapprove don’t know SEPTEMBER 2018 On another topic, Do you think the federal crackdown on undocumented immigrants has been a good thing for the country or a bad thing for the country? 39% 51 4 1 5 good thing bad thing mixed (volunteered) neither (volunteered) don’t know When it comes to increased federal immigration enforcement, how much do you worry that someone that you know could be deported? Would you say that you worry a lot, some, not much, or not at all? 29% 20 15 34 2 a lot some not much not at all don’t know Changing topics, How important is the choice of the next Supreme Court Justice to you personally: very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 59% 24 8 6 3 very important somewhat important not too important not at all important don’t know As you may know, the 1973 Supreme Court case Roe v. Wade established a women’s constitutional right to have an abortion. Would you like to see the Supreme Court overturn its Roe v. Wade decision, or not? 26% yes, overturn Roe versus Wade 66 no, not overturn Roe versus Wade 7 don’t know PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 26 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Changing topics, [likely voters only] In 2017, the California legislature passed and Governor Brown signed into law an increase in the state’s gasoline tax. Do you favor or oppose repealing the recently passed increase in the state gas tax? 50% 46 4 favor oppose don’t know [likely voters only] Do you think rent control—that is, the ability of local governments to set limits on how much rents can be increased each year—is a good thing or a bad thing? 52% 41 7 good thing bad thing don’t know SEPTEMBER 2018 Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 13% 19 31 22 12 3 very liberal somewhat liberal middle-of-the-road somewhat conservative very conservative don’t know Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics—a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 26% 35 29 10 1 great deal fair amount only a little none don’t know [d1-d16 demographic questions] PPIC.ORG/SURVEY Californians and Their Government 27 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY ADVISORY COMMITTEE Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect Angela Glover Blackwell President and CEO PolicyLink Mollyann Brodie Senior Vice President Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Bill Lane Center for the American West Stanford University Jon Cohen Vice President of Survey Research SurveyMonkey Joshua J. Dyck Co-Director Center for Public Opinion University of Massachusetts, Lowell Lisa García Bedolla Director Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley Russell Hancock President and CEO Joint Venture Silicon Valley Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Professor Sol Price School of Public Policy University of Southern California Robert Lapsley President California Business Roundtable Carol S. Larson President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Sonja Petek Fiscal and Policy Analyst California Legislative Analyst’s Office Lisa Pitney Vice President of Government Relations The Walt Disney Company Robert K. Ross, MD President and CEO The California Endowment Most Reverend Jaime Soto Bishop of Sacramento Roman Catholic Diocese of Sacramento Carol Whiteside Principal California Strategies The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. PPIC BOARD OF DIRECTORS Steven A. Merksamer, Chair Senior Partner Nielsen, Merksamer, Parrinello, Gross & Leoni, LLP Mark Baldassare President and CEO Public Policy Institute of California Ruben Barrales President and CEO GROW Elect María Blanco Executive Director University of California Immigrant Legal Services Center Louise Henry Bryson Chair Emerita, Board of Trustees J. Paul Getty Trust A. Marisa Chun Partner McDermott Will & Emery LLP Chet Hewitt President and CEO Sierra Health Foundation Phil Isenberg Former Chair Delta Stewardship Council Donna Lucas Chief Executive Officer Lucas Public Affairs Mas Masumoto Author and Farmer Leon E. Panetta Chairman The Panetta Institute for Public Policy Gerald L. Parsky Chairman Aurora Capital Group Kim Polese Chairman ClearStreet, Inc. Gaddi H. Vasquez Senior Vice President, Government Affairs Edison International Southern California Edison Public Policy Institute of California 500 Washington Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, CA 94111 T: 415.291.4400 F: 415.291.4401 PPIC.ORG PPIC Sacramento Center Senator Office Building 1121 L Street, Suite 801 Sacramento, CA 95814 T: 916.440.1120 F: 916.440.1121" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2018-09-27 03:49:37" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(36) "ppic-statewide-survey-september-2018" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2018-09-26 20:50:20" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2018-09-27 03:50:20" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["guid"]=> string(79) "http://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/ppic-statewide-survey-september-2018.pdf" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_mime_type"]=> string(15) "application/pdf" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" ["status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["attachment_authors"]=> bool(false) }