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Studies within these programs are examining the underlying forces shaping California’s future, cutting across a wide range of public policy concerns, including education, health care, immigration, income distribution, welfare, urban growth, and state and local finance. PPIC was created because three concerned citizens – William R. Hewlett, Roger W. Heyns, and Arjay Miller – recognized the need for linking objective research to the realities of California public policy. Their goal was to help the state’s leaders better understand the intricacies and implications of contemporary issues and make informed public policy decisions when confronted with challenges in the future. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. David W. Lyon is founding President and Chief Executive Officer of PPIC. Raymond L. Watson is Chairman of the Board of Directors. 500 Washington Street, Suite 800 • San Francisco, California 94111 Telephone: (415) 291-4400 • Fax: (415) 291-4401 info@ppic.org • www.ppic.org Preface The Central Valley Survey – an ongoing collaborative effort of the Public Policy Institute of California and the Great Valley Center – is a special edition of the PPIC Statewide Survey. This is the fifth PPIC survey of the Central Valley. The first was conducted in October 1999 (published in a survey report in November 1999); the second was conducted in February 2001 (published in a survey report in March 2001); and the third and fourth were conducted and published in survey reports in April 2002 and April 2003. The purpose of this survey series is to provide comprehensive, advocacy-free information on the opinions and public policy preferences of Central Valley residents. The Central Valley has been of considerable interest to researchers and state and national leaders for some time because of its increasingly significant role in the social, economic, and political life of California. The Central Valley – the inland area of California stretching 400 miles from Bakersfield to Redding –is home to 5.7 million residents and has been one of the fastest growing areas of the state. By the year 2025, the Central Valley is expected to see its population increase to 9.3 million people. Because the region is the agricultural center of the state – and because agriculture is one of the state’s leading industries – the urbanization of farmland in the Central Valley is of great concern to state policymakers. The impact of growth on the water supply, air quality, surface transportation, education facilities, housing affordability, economic conditions, and the perceived quality of life is a major concern today throughout the region. Since the Central Valley is a large geographic region that is socially, politically, and economically diverse, the public’s experiences with population growth vary considerably across population subgroups and parts of the Central Valley, and so do residents’ awareness of regional problems and preferences for policy solutions. This survey of 2,005 adult residents includes some of the “tracking” questions from the 1999, 2001, 2002, and 2003 surveys in order to measure changes in key political, social, and economic indicators. We are particularly interested in examining trends over time since the 1999 benchmark survey. The survey also includes questions from PPIC Statewide Surveys, providing comparisons with other major regions of California and the state as a whole. The following issues are explored in this edition of the survey: • Local, regional, and Central Valley issues, including each resident’s satisfaction with his or her community and trends in the quality of life of that community, ratings of local public services, satisfaction with conditions and perceptions of problems in each resident’s area of the Central Valley, the most important problem facing the Central Valley, perceptions of the current direction of the Central Valley, and degree of optimism about the future of the Central Valley. • Governance and policy preferences, including local government ratings, public education facilities, transportation projects, water supply and quality, air quality regulations, and planning for the future. • Economic, social, and political trends, including ratings of the Central Valley economy, perceptions of economic recession occurring in each resident’s area of the Central Valley, perceptions of household finances, concerns about employment security, the frequency of use of computers and the Internet, religious beliefs and values, political interests and involvement, and political beliefs and values. • Trends in attitudes over time and across four different subregions of the Central Valley (i.e., North Valley, Sacramento Metro, North San Joaquin, and South San Joaquin); between Latinos and non-Hispanic whites; and across demographic and political groups. Copies of this report may be ordered by e-mail (order@ppic.org) or phone (415-291-4400). This report and the November 1999, March 2001, April 2002, and April 2003 reports are posted on the publications page of the PPIC web site (www.ppic.org). For questions about the survey, please contact survey@ppic.org. -i- - ii - Contents Preface Press Release Local, Regional, and Central Valley Issues Governance and Policy Preferences Economic, Social, and Political Trends Survey Methodology Survey Questions and Results Survey Advisory Committee i v 1 7 13 19 21 27 - iii - Press Release Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: http://www.ppic.org/main/pressreleaseindex.asp SPECIAL SURVEY OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY THERE’S NO PLACE LIKE HOME! Despite Grim View of Regional Problems, Central Valley Residents Like Where They Live SAN FRANCISCO, California, April 29, 2004 — Amid booming population growth – and the severe problems it can bring – Central Valley residents genuinely like their local communities and are optimistic about the area’s future, according to a survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), in collaboration with the Great Valley Center. This upbeat attitude creates quite a paradox, considering that many residents also voice serious and growing concern about vital regional issues such as air pollution, school quality, affordable housing, lack of job opportunities, and traffic congestion. A full three-fourths (75%) of Valley residents say their local community or city is a good or excellent place to live. “The enthusiasm residents have for their communities is striking because so many (71%) perceive that their local area has grown rapidly over the past five years,” says PPIC Statewide Survey Director Mark Baldassare. “Bursts of growth and development tend to arouse negative feelings among people who live in an area, so it’s quite remarkable that most Valley residents believe life has either improved or stayed the same, but not grown worse.” In fact, over half (53%) of residents believe that things in the Central Valley are headed in the right direction, while less than a third (32%) say things are moving in the wrong direction. Moreover, a plurality of residents (42%) believe the Central Valley will be a better place to live in the future, outnumbering those who believe it will be a worse place (27%). When turning to the state’s biggest trouble spot – the economy – Central Valley denizens may have a gloomier outlook than in the past, but even on this issue, there appears to be some optimism in some parts of the region. Today, 38 percent of all residents rate the local economy as good or excellent, down from 55 percent in 1999. However, in the Sacramento Metro area, positive economic ratings have risen in the past year – from 39 percent to 45 percent. “That’s particularly surprising for Sacramento, given the recent and expected state government layoffs,” says Baldassare. Similarly, residents in the South San Joaquin area also give the economy slightly higher marks today than they did a year ago (33% to 37%). The Devil’s in the Details – Bright Outlook Dims on Closer Inspection Underlying the overall optimism, however, are distinctly negative feelings toward many of the region’s public services and facilities – and a belief that local problems are growing worse. Since 1999, concern over traffic congestion has nearly doubled from 23 percent to 44 percent. Air pollution – viewed as the Valley’s most important issue – is now considered a big problem by 45 percent of the population, up from 28 percent in 1999. Furthermore, residents express increasing dissatisfaction with the lack of affordable housing: Positive ratings have fallen from 37 percent to 19 percent since 1999. There has also been a decline in confidence – sometimes dramatic – in the region’s public services and infrastructure: The percentage of residents who give high ratings to their local streets and roads has dropped 14 points, from 58 percent to 44 percent, in the past five years. Positive school ratings have declined from 59 percent to 54 percent since 1999. -v- Press Release Happy? Depends on Who… and Where Adding to the mixed picture, distinct differences emerge along racial and ethnic lines. For example, Latinos (59%) are much less likely than whites (83%) to rate their community as good or excellent. The disparities extend to many public services as well. Whites (72%) give much higher ratings to local police protection and parks and recreational facilities than Latinos do (58% police protection, 56% parks). Furthermore, only one-quarter (25%) of Latinos say they are very satisfied with the availability of colleges and universities in the region, compared to over one-third (37%) of all residents. “The divide between Latinos and whites on these issues likely comes from persisting social and economic differences,” says Baldassare. “Satisfaction with higher education and recreational facilities tends to increase among residents who own their own homes, and have higher incomes and more education.” One of the greatest and perhaps most troubling differences is the growing disparity in computer and Internet use between whites and Latinos. In 1999, the gap between frequent Latino and white Internet users was 19 points (21% Latinos, 40% whites); today it has climbed to 34 points (25% Latinos, 59% whites). Frequent Internet use among all Valley residents has risen from 37 percent to 50 percent since 1999. In another comparison, the rate of computer ownership among Latinos remains virtually the same as it was five years ago (34%), while the number of all Central Valley homes that have a computer has risen from 55 percent to 62 percent since 1999. The Central Valley’s regions also diverge sharply from each other on a number of issues. On the whole, there is greater community satisfaction in the north than in the south: North Valley (84%) and Sacramento Metro (81%), compared to North San Joaquin (71%) and South San Joaquin (70%). However, optimism about the future of the region is greater in the far south than the far north: Only 33 percent of North Valley residents say the Valley will be a better place to live in the future, compared to 47 percent of South San Joaquin residents. But what about specific quality of life issues? Northern residents are far less likely to say air pollution is a big problem (17% North Valley to 62% South San Joaquin), and many more residents of Sacramento Metro (63%) are troubled by traffic congestion than are residents of the less urban North Valley (29%), North San Joaquin (49%), and South San Joaquin (27%). Religion and Politics? Central Valley residents are more likely than Californians as a whole to say religion is a very important part of their lives (53% to 45%). But within the region, differences surface along ethnic and political lines. For example, 56 percent of Latinos say they attended a religious service in the past week, compared to just 38 percent of whites. Furthermore, 62 percent of Latinos say that religion is personally very important to them, while fewer than half of whites (48%) say the same. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to attend religious services (50% to 39%), and to say that religion plays an important role in their lives (60% to 49%). Nearly half of the Valley’s Republican Christians (47%) consider themselves to be “born-again” or evangelical Christians. As has been the case over time, Central Valley residents continue to lean toward the conservative side of the political spectrum – but with a few twists. A plurality (42%) consider themselves to be conservative, while 29 percent each say they are either liberal or moderate. On fundamental issues such as big versus small government, the numbers track ideological bents: Forty-three percent favor smaller government with fewer services, while 48 percent favor larger government with more services – as many moderates agree with liberals on this issue. While Latinos tend to favor bigger government, they may not be weighing in as much: Only 46 percent say they have a great or fair amount of interest in politics, compared to 75 percent of whites. More Key Findings • Schools Rule (page 8) Out of a list of infrastructure projects, residents pick schools (49%) as the top priority, far more than the next most popular choice – surface transportation (18%). Moreover, 51 percent of likely voters say they would support an increase in their property taxes to provide more funds for local schools. - vi - Press Release • Agriculture Prevails (page 10) More residents (38%) think the top priority of future water policy should be farms and agriculture, as opposed to homes and residents (30%). • Get Me Out of Traffic! (page 9) A majority (64%) of the relatively conservative Central Valley population would be willing to increase their local sales tax to pay for transportation projects. Generally, streets and roads (25%) and freeways and highways (23%) take priority over light rail (15%) or bus systems (12%). • The Air They Breathe (page 11) Sixty-eight percent of residents would support tougher federal standards on air pollution… but the number falls to 44 percent if those regulations would hurt local economies. About the Survey The Central Valley Survey – an ongoing collaborative effort of the Public Policy Institute of California and the Great Valley Center – is a special edition of the PPIC Statewide Survey. The purpose of this survey is to provide a comprehensive, advocacy-free study of the political, social, and economic attitudes and public policy preferences of Central Valley residents. Previous PPIC surveys of the Central Valley were conducted in 1999, 2001, 2002, and 2003. Findings of the current survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,005 adult residents in the 19-county Central Valley region, interviewed between April 12 and April 20, 2004. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish. The sampling error for the total sample is +/- 2%. The sampling error for subgroups is larger. For more information on methodology, see page 19. Mark Baldassare is research director at PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has directed since 1998. His most recent book, A California State of Mind: The Conflicted Voter in a Changing World, is available at www.ppic.org. PPIC is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to improving public policy through objective, nonpartisan research on the economic, social, and political issues that affect Californians. The institute was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. This report will appear on PPIC’s website (www.ppic.org) on April 29. ### - vii - Percent all adults Percent Percent all adults What is the most important issue facing the Central Valley today? 20 19 12 12 10 8 8 0 Air Economy Pop. Crime & pollution/ & jobs grow th & gangs general dev. pollution Water Percent who are "very satisfied" with____ in their part of the Central Valley 1999 2004 50 43 39 40 48 37 37 30 23 19 20 13 10 0 Outdoor Public Housing you Job leisure colleges & can afford opportunities activities universities Percent of residents who describe themselves as politically conservative 80 70 60 50 42 40 30 20 10 0 All adults 69 22 Democrats Republicans Percent Percent all adults Percent saying air pollution is a "big problem" in their part of the Central Valley 80 70 60 50 37 39 40 30 17 20 10 0 North Valley Sacramento North San Metro Joaquin 62 South San Joaquin How would you rate the economy in the Central Valley? % excellent/ good 60 55% 49% 50 45% 40 35% 38% 30 20 10 0 Nov '99 March '01 April '02 April '03 April '04 Percent Percent saying they have attended religious services in the last seven days 80 70 60 50 44 40 30 20 10 0 All adults 38 w hites 56 Latinos Local, Regional, and Central Valley Issues Local Community Ratings Most Central Valley residents believe that life is good in their local communities. Three in four rate their city or community as an excellent or good place to live—a high degree of satisfaction that has persisted virtually unchanged across our five annual Central Valley surveys. However, there are differences across subregions and population groups. Satisfaction with the local community is somewhat higher in northern than in southern regions of the Central Valley and among whites (83%) than among Latinos (59%). Community satisfaction increases with age, education, income, and homeownership. Population growth has apparently not had much adverse effect on residents’ perceptions of local life. Seventy-one percent say their local communities have been growing rapidly in the past five years; this perception is most common among North San Joaquin (75%) and Sacramento Metro (74%) residents. Even with this growth, one in three residents say that their local communities have become better places to live in the past five years, and nearly half say that their communities have stayed about the same. Twenty-one percent of residents who have lived in the Central Valley for twenty years or more think that the region has become a worse place to live over the past five years, compared to 12 percent of those who have arrived in the region during the past five years. “Overall, how would you rate your city or community as a place to live?” Excellent / Good Fair Poor Don't know 1999 73% 21 6 0 2001 75% 20 5 0 2002 76% 20 4 0 2003 77% 18 4 1 2004 75% 19 5 1 Excellent / Good Fair Poor Don't know All Adults 75% 19 5 1 North Valley 84% 12 4 0 Subregion Sacramento North San South San Metro Joaquin Joaquin Latinos 81% 71% 70% 59% 15 24 22 33 3 4 88 1 1 00 “Overall, in the past five years, would you say the quality of life in your city or community has gotten better or gotten worse or has it stayed about the same?” Better Worse Same Don’t know All Adults 31% 17 48 4 North Valley 24% 15 56 5 Subregion Sacramento North San Metro Joaquin South San Joaquin Latinos 32% 34% 31% 32% 19 19 16 17 46 42 50 48 3 5 33 -1- Local, Regional, and Central Valley Issues Local Public Service Ratings Residents’ satisfaction with local public services might be expected to change in light of perceived rapid population growth and several years of tight state and local government budgets. However, evidence from the Central Valley is mixed. Over the course of the five annual surveys, two in three residents have continued to rate local police and local parks and recreation as excellent or good. Local public schools and local streets and roads have not fared as well: Excellent or good ratings of local public schools have declined by 5 points since 1999 (59% to 54%). Ratings of local streets and roads have dropped by 14 points since 1999 (58% to 44%) and 8 points since 2002 (52% to 44%). The public’s positive ratings of local police protection are fairly even across the Central Valley. However, the ratings of local parks and public recreation decline as one moves from north to south. Local public schools get the lowest positive ratings from North San Joaquin residents. Fewer than half across all subregions rate their local streets and roads as excellent or good. The declines in local public service ratings have also varied across subregions. For the local public schools, the largest declines in positive ratings since 1999 are among North San Joaquin (58% to 46%) and South San Joaquin (63% to 57%) residents. For local streets and roads, positive ratings have decreased since 2002 from 59 percent to 44 percent in the North Valley, from 56 percent to 48 percent in Sacramento Metro, from 49 percent to 45 percent in North San Joaquin, and from 50 percent to 41 percent in South San Joaquin. There are also noteworthy differences in local public service ratings across social and economic groups. For instance, whites are more likely than Latinos to give positive ratings to local police protection (72% to 58%) and local parks and public recreation (72% to 56%). Also, the longer residents have lived in the Central Valley, the lower the “excellent/good” rating of local streets and roads is likely to be (fewer than 5 years, 54%; 5 to 19 years, 49%; 20 or more years, 39%). Ratings of local public schools are similar across age, education, income, and racial/ethnic groups and among households with (56%) or without (52%) children at home. Percentage rating service excellent or good in their part of the Central Valley 1999 2001 2002 Local police protection Local parks and other public recreational facilities 69% 68 65 72% 68 Local public schools 59 58 58 Local streets and roads 58* 58* 52 *In the 1999 and 2001 Central Valley Surveys, “freeways” were included in this list. 2003 71% 71 56 49 2004 67% 67 54 44 Percentage rating service excellent or good in their part of the Central Valley Local police protection Local parks and other public recreational facilities Local public schools Local streets and roads All Adults 67% 67 54 44 North Valley 66% 74 63 44 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 68% 67% 73 64 52 46 48 45 South San Joaquin 66% Latinos 58% 60 56 57 54 41 44 -2- Local, Regional, and Central Valley Issues Regional Problems As in the previous four surveys, we asked Central Valley residents about how big a problem four conditions were in their parts of the region. More than four in 10 residents see air pollution and traffic congestion on freeways and major roads as big problems in their regions. Thirty-eight percent of residents identify the loss of farms and agriculture and 32 percent mentioned population growth and development as big problems in their parts of the Central Valley. The perception of these conditions as big problems has increased steadily over the past five years. Since the 1999 survey, concern has increased by 21 points for traffic congestion (23% to 44%), by 17 points for air pollution (28% to 45%), by 15 points for farm and agricultural land loss (23% to 38%), and by 11 points for population growth and development (21% to 32%). However, for the latter two problems, responses have changed very little over the past few years. Ratings differ across the valley’s subregions. Residents’ ratings of air pollution as a big problem increase sharply moving from north to south in the valley. Sacramento Metro residents are much more likely than residents elsewhere in the valley to say that traffic congestion is a big problem. Public concern about population growth and development and the loss of farms and agricultural lands are much more pronounced in the central subregions (i.e., Sacramento Metro, North San Joaquin) than at the northern and southern ends of the valley. Which subregions have seen the largest shifts in perceptions of problems since 1999? The proportion of residents rating air pollution as a big problem has grown by 34 percentage points in the South San Joaquin area (28% to 62%), while the proportion rating traffic congestion as a big problem has increased by 28 points in the North San Joaquin region (21% to 49%) and by 20 points in the Sacramento Metro area (43% to 63%). Perceptions of farmland loss and population growth and development increased in all subregions. The public’s perception of these four regional issues as big problems tends to increase with age, education, income, and years living in the Central Valley and is higher among whites than Latinos. Percentage seeing as a big problem in their part of the Central Valley Air pollution Traffic congestion on freeways and major roads Loss of farms and agricultural lands Population growth and development 1999 28% 23 23 21 2001 26% 29 34 26 2002 35% 33 38 29 2003 41% 41 40 31 2004 45% 44 38 32 Percentage seeing problem as a big Air pollution Traffic congestion on freeways and major roads Loss of farms and agricultural lands Population growth and development All Adults 45% 44 38 32 North Valley 17% 29 27 26 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 37% 39% 63 49 40 45 41 35 South San Joaquin 62% Latinos 43% 27 35 36 29 22 20 - 3 - April 2004 Local, Regional, and Central Valley Issues Regional Satisfaction Turning from problems to amenities, we asked Central Valley residents how satisfied they are with the availability of outdoor leisure activities, public colleges and universities, affordable housing, and job opportunities in their region of the valley. All in all, they are less satisfied than they were in the 1999 survey. Today, fewer than four in 10 residents say they are very satisfied with the availability of leisure activities and higher education, and fewer than two in 10 residents are very satisfied with housing and employment options. Satisfaction with affordable housing experienced the most dramatic drop—an 18-point decline in residents who say they are very satisfied (37% to 19%). There has been an 11-point decline in those who are very satisfied with the availability of public colleges and universities (48% to 37%), a 10-point drop in the percentage of those very satisfied with available job opportunities (23% to 13%), but only a 4-point decline in the percentage of residents who are very satisfied with outdoor recreation (43% to 39%). Since 1999, the percentages of residents who are not satisfied with housing (18% to 41%), jobs (31% to 37%), and higher education (10% to 15%) have grown. Dissatisfaction with outdoor leisure activities is unchanged (16%). Across the valley, North Valley residents give the highest ratings to their outdoor leisure activities and South San Joaquin residents are the most satisfied with affordable housing. The percentage of residents who are very satisfied with outdoor leisure activities is lowest among North San Joaquin residents. As for the significant subregional changes since the 1999 survey, North San Joaquin has seen a decline in the percentages of residents who are very satisfied with outdoor leisure (37% to 24%), public colleges and universities (48% to 34%), and affordable housing (36% to 15%). In the Sacramento Metro area, there has been a sharp drop in the proportions who are very satisfied with the availability of higher education (53% to 40%), affordable housing (31% to 13%) and employment opportunities (36% to 15%). There are also significant differences in levels of satisfaction across demographic groups. Latinos are less likely than whites to say they are very satisfied with the availability of outdoor leisure activities (24% to 47%) and public colleges and universities (25% to 43%). Satisfaction with these two domains tends to increase with age, education, income, and homeownership. There are few differences across racial/ethnic or demographic groups in satisfaction with affordable housing and job opportunities. Percentage saying they are very satisfied with the in their part of the Central Valley Availability of outdoor leisure activities Availability of public colleges and universities Availability of affordable housing Job opportunities 1999 43% 48 37 23 2004 39% 37 19 13 Percentage saying they are very satisfied with the in their part of the Central Valley Availability of outdoor leisure activities Availability of public colleges and universities Availability of affordable housing Job opportunities All Adults 39% 37 19 13 North Valley 64% 40 18 11 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 48% 24% 40 34 13 15 15 9 South San Joaquin 33% Latinos 24% 33 25 28 19 15 14 -4- Local, Regional, and Central Valley Issues Most Important Issue Nineteen percent of Central Valley residents identify air pollution or pollution in general as the most important issue confronting the Central Valley as a whole. The next most frequently mentioned issues on the public’s list of top concerns are jobs and the economy (12%), population growth and development (12%), water availability and quality (8%), crime and gangs (8%), and traffic (6%). The percentages of valley residents identifying air pollution or pollution in general as the top issue have increased dramatically over this survey series: Ten percent of residents mentioned air pollution and other types of pollution as the top issue facing the region in the 1999 survey, 9 percent in the 2001 survey, 14 percent in the 2002 survey, 16 percent in the 2003 survey, and 19 percent in the current survey. Perceptions of the most important issues in the Central Valley vary greatly across the four subregions. For example, South San Joaquin residents are much more likely to name air pollution and other types of pollution as the most important issue. In contrast, North Valley residents are very focused on water issues, while residents of other subregions do not tend to see water availability and quality as the top issue. Population growth and development is the most frequently cited issue among Sacramento Metro and North San Joaquin residents, while this issue is noted by far fewer residents at the northern and southern ends of the valley. Traffic congestion registers a substantial level of concern in the Sacramento Metro area, while few elsewhere mention it as the most important issue. There is relative consensus on only one issue across regions—the issue of jobs and the economy. Where are the largest changes in perceptions occurring over time? The most notable trend is in mentions of air pollution and pollution in general in South San Joaquin: Nine percent in 1999; 13 percent in 2001, 19 percent in 2002, 28 percent in 2003, and 32 percent in the current survey. Air pollution and pollution are at or near the top of the list of important issues across racial/ethnic groups and age, education, and income categories. Latinos are nearly three times more likely than whites to indicate that crime and gangs are the most important issue facing the Central Valley (14% to 5%). Latinos are also far less likely to report that population growth and development is the most important issue facing the Central Valley today (5% to 15%). “What do you think is the most important issue facing the Central Valley today?” Air pollution, pollution in general Jobs, unemployment, economy Population growth; development; sprawl Water availability and quality Crime, gangs Traffic, transportation Education, schools Housing costs, housing availability Drugs Other Don't know All Adults 19% 12 12 8 8 6 3 3 2 12 15 North Valley 5% 15 10 26 5 2 3 4 0 11 19 Subregion Sacramento North San South San Metro Joaquin Joaquin 12% 14% 32% 10 12 13 18 15 5 856 789 10 5 2 433 461 032 11 13 11 16 16 16 Latinos 17% 15 5 2 14 4 3 1 3 9 27 - 5 - April 2004 Local, Regional, and Central Valley Issues Overall Mood Despite concern about problems confronting the Central Valley and their particular region within it, residents are relatively upbeat about current trends and the future. They are more likely to say that things in the valley are going in the right than in the wrong direction (53% to 32%). Although there has been a downtrend in “right direction” responses, “wrong direction” responses have been fairly steady over the past five surveys. In general, Central Valley residents are more positive about the direction of their region than Californians were about the direction of the state in the February 2004 PPIC Statewide Survey (35% right direction, 51% wrong direction). The percentages saying the valley is going in the right direction vary across subregions, but the percentages saying the valley is going in the wrong direction are similar. Latinos are more likely than whites (58% to 50%) to see things going in the right direction. Perceptions that things are going right do not vary significantly across education and income groups. However, younger residents are more likely than older people to say that things are going in the right direction (under age 35, 58%; ages 35 to 54, 52%; age 55 and older, 48%). “Right direction” responses are also more common among recent than among longer-term Central Valley residents (fewer than 5 years, 60%; 5 to 20 years, 56%; 20 or more years, 49%) More residents think that the Central Valley will be a better place than a worse place to live in the future (42% to 27%), and the gap is larger than it was in the 1999 survey (37% to 33%). Latinos are more optimistic than whites (50% to 39%); and across the subregions, South San Joaquin residents are the most optimistic. “Do you think that things in the Central Valley are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?” Right direction Wrong direction Don't know 1999 63% 29 8 2001 59% 32 9 2002 55% 34 11 2003 58% 31 11 2004 53% 32 15 Right direction Wrong direction Don’t know All Adults 53% 32 15 North Valley 48% 32 20 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 50% 58% 34 32 16 10 South San Joaquin 54% 30 16 Latinos 58% 28 14 “In the future, do you think that the Central Valley will be a better place to live than it is now, or a worse place to live than it is now, or that there will be no change?” Better place Worse place No change Don’t know All Adults 42% 27 24 7 North Valley 33% 33 25 9 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 38% 44% 33 30 24 21 55 South San Joaquin 47% 19 25 9 Latinos 50% 16 27 7 -6- Governance and Policy Preferences Local Government Ratings Four in 10 Central Valley residents say that their city government is doing an excellent or good job in solving problems in their local area. These ratings of city government remain virtually the same as they were five years ago and are also similar to the excellent or good ratings cities reported in more recent surveys. Sacramento Metro residents are somewhat more positive toward their city governments than are residents of other Central Valley subregions: In the Sacramento area, 45 percent of residents say that their city government is doing an excellent or good job in solving local problems, compared to a low of 36 percent who give their city governments similar ratings in the North San Joaquin Valley. When residents are asked to rate the performance of their county government, 36 percent say their county government is doing an excellent or good job in solving county problems. The percentage of Central Valley residents rating their county government as excellent or good is down slightly from 1999 (41%). Overall, county governments receive somewhat lower positive ratings today than city governments and lower ratings than in previous surveys. There are only marginal differences in residents’ evaluations of their city and county governments across political party, age, household income, and length of residence. Overall, how would you rate the performance of your… City government in solving problems in your local area Excellent / Good Fair Poor Don’t know / don’t live in city County government in solving problems in your county Excellent / Good Fair Poor Don't know 1999 39% 38 15 8 41% 42 13 4 2001 40% 38 14 8 42% 40 13 5 2002 42% 37 13 8 44% 40 11 5 2003 44% 38 14 4 39% 43 14 4 2004 40% 39 14 7 36% 42 15 7 Overall, how would you rate the performance of your… All Adults City government in solving problems in your local area Excellent / Good Fair Poor Don’t know / don’t live in city County government in solving problems in your county Excellent / Good Fair Poor Don’t know 40% 39 14 7 36% 42 15 7 North Valley 37% 46 14 3 34% 41 21 4 Subregion Sacramento North San South San Metro Joaquin Joaquin 45% 35 36% 44 39% 38 13 12 17 Latinos 37% 46 12 7 8 65 39% 40 13 8 32% 47 15 6 35% 42 16 7 35% 45 12 8 -7- Governance and Policy Preferences School Facilities Presented with a list of various infrastructure projects, half of Central Valley residents (49%) highlight school facilities as the top priority for public funding. By comparison, just 18 percent choose surface transportation projects and 16 percent choose water systems as the top priority for public funding; fewer mention sewer systems (5%) and airports (2%). Residents’ priorities today are nearly the same as they were last year when we asked about priorities for 2025. As was also the case last year, prioritization of school facilities declines sharply with age, although it remains the top ranked infrastructure priority in all age groups. “Which infrastructure projects do you think should have top priority for public funding in the Central Valley?” School facilities Surface transportation Water systems Sewer systems Airports Something else Don’t know All Adults 49% 18 16 5 2 3 7 North Valley 53% 12 15 8 0 3 9 Subregion Sacramento North San Metro Joaquin 48% 24 49% 17 13 15 37 11 44 77 South San Joaquin 51% 13 20 4 3 2 7 Latinos 50% 12 15 6 3 2 12 In line with their strong support for school facilities, 56 percent of residents, and 51 percent of the region’s likely voters, say they would vote yes if there were a measure on their local ballot to increase property taxes in order to provide more funds for local schools. However, likely voter support falls short of the 55 percent supermajority needed to pass local tax increases for schools. Although there is majority support for local school tax measures across the Central Valley, Democrats (63%) and independents (56%) are more likely than Republicans (43%) to support tax increases. The University of California campus at Merced is currently one of the largest public higher education facility projects in the state of California. Central Valley residents appear to be enthusiastic about this project. Eight in 10 residents think the new campus is very (46%) or somewhat (35%) important to the future economy and quality of life in the Central Valley. Latinos (63%) and San Joaquin Valley residents are more likely than others to consider the construction of the new campus very important. Residents with and without children at home are nearly equally likely to view the new UC campus as very important. “A new university campus is being built in the Central Valley. How important is the University of California at Merced to the future economy and quality of life in the Central Valley?” Very important Somewhat important Not important Don’t know All Adults 46% 35 14 5 North Valley 37% 38 14 11 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 37% 53% 39 32 19 12 53 South San Joaquin 52% 33 12 3 Latinos 63% 26 7 4 -8- Governance and Policy Preferences Transportation Projects Asked to choose among surface transportation projects for the Central Valley, one in four residents thinks that local streets and roads should have the top priority for public spending. Nearly one in four give the top priority to freeways and highways, 15 percent to light rail systems, 12 percent to public buses, 12 percent to high-speed rail, and 6 percent to carpool lanes. Compared to last year’s survey, and in line with residents’ declining ratings of local streets and roads, residents today are somewhat more likely to identify local streets and roads (+ 6 percentage points) and freeways and highways (+ 5), and somewhat less likely to mention the public bus system (- 6), as the top priority for public funding. There are significant differences in transportation priorities across the Central Valley. In the North Valley and South San Joaquin, three in 10 residents give top priority to local streets and roads, while local streets and roads are the top transportation project for only 18 percent of residents in the Sacramento Metro area. In Sacramento Metro, one in four say that the light rail system is the top priority, compared to only 7 percent of South San Joaquin residents. Twenty-two percent of Latinos and only 8 percent of whites in the Central Valley say public bus systems should be the top priority for public transportation funding. “Which of the following types of surface transportation projects do you think should have top priority for public funding in the Central Valley?” Local streets and roads Freeways and highways Light rail system Public bus system High-speed rail Carpool lanes Something else Don’t know All Adults 25% 23 15 12 12 6 2 5 North Valley 35% 19 12 13 10 4 4 3 Subregion Sacramento North San Metro Joaquin 18% 23% 27 24 25 13 9 14 12 11 47 11 47 South San Joaquin 30% 20 7 16 13 6 1 7 Latinos 27% 16 7 22 9 8 1 10 Public support for increasing the local transportation sales tax is near the two-thirds supermajority needed for passage: Sixty-four percent of residents, and 65 percent of likely voters, would vote yes if there were a county measure to increase their local sales tax by ½ cent for local transportation projects. A $9.95 billion state bond measure to pay for the planning and construction of high-speed rail from Los Angeles to San Francisco through the Central Valley also receives majority support at this time: Fifty-five percent of residents, and 51 percent of likely voters, would vote yes if this measure were to appear on the state ballot. “What if there was a measure on your county ballot to increase the local sales tax for local transportation projects by one-half cent? Would you vote yes or no?” Yes No Don’t know All Adults 64% 32 4 North Valley 66% 32 2 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 63% 70% 32 26 54 South San Joaquin 59% 35 6 Latinos 65% 29 6 - 9 - April 2004 Governance and Policy Preferences Water Supply Central Valley residents are evenly divided in their opinions about the adequacy of their water supply through the next 10 years: Forty-six percent think that the water supply in their part of the Central Valley will be adequate, while 44 percent think that it will be somewhat (25%) or very (19%) inadequate in meeting their needs. North Valley residents express the most confidence that the water supply in their part of the valley will be adequate (57%), while under half of all residents in other parts of the Central Valley say the supply will be sufficient. One in five Sacramento Metro and South San Joaquin residents say the water supply will be very inadequate. Latinos are somewhat more likely than whites to say that there will be enough water (53% to 44%). Length of residence in the Central Valley also influences perceptions of the future water supply: Fifty percent of residents who have lived in the Central Valley for 20 years or more think that the water supply will be inadequate, compared to only 35 percent of those who have lived in the Central Valley for fewer than five years. “Do you think that the water supply available in your part of the Central Valley today will be adequate or inadequate to meet needs through the next 10 years?” (if yes: “Is that somewhat or very inadequate?”) Adequate Somewhat inadequate Very inadequate Don’t know All Adults 46% 25 19 10 North Valley 57% 19 12 12 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 43% 45% 27 29 21 17 99 South San Joaquin 47% 23 20 10 Latinos 53% 23 10 14 Many Central Valley residents are not that concerned about the quality of their water supply today: Forty-five percent say that water quality is not a problem in their part of the valley, 34 percent see it as somewhat of a problem, and only 19 percent consider it a big problem. The public is divided when asked about the most important priority for water policy in planning for the Central Valley’s future. While about four in 10 residents say that farms and agriculture should be the top priority, more than half say that homes and residents (30%) and protecting the environment (21%) should be more important issues when it comes to water policy. This preference ordering is evident across all subregions. Latinos favor homes and residents over farms and agriculture (37% to 22%), while whites favor farms and agriculture over homes and residents (47% to 25%). Prioritizing the environment is more common among Democrats (21%) and independents (28%) than among Republicans (11%). “Which of the following should be the most important priority for water policy in making plans for the future?” Farms and agriculture Homes and residents Protecting the environment Other answer Don’t know All Adults 38% 30 21 5 6 North Valley 40% 29 24 5 2 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 39% 30 39% 33 20 16 55 67 South San Joaquin 37% 28 23 4 8 Latinos 22% 37 31 2 8 - 10 - Governance and Policy Preferences Air Quality Regulations As noted in the previous chapter, air pollution tops the list of concerns of Central Valley residents. When asked which level of government should have primary responsibility for setting air quality standards in their part of the Central Valley, preferences are decidedly mixed: Twenty-nine percent of residents say the state government, 26 percent say the regional air resources board, 22 percent say local government, and 12 percent say the federal government. North Valley residents are more likely to favor giving the authority to local government (29%) or a regional board (30%), while Sacramento Metro residents lean toward the state government or a regional board (both 32%). In South San Joaquin—where residents are most likely to say that air pollution is a big problem—state government is favored over other levels of government when it comes to setting air quality standards. Whites are more likely than Latinos to say that state government (31% to 24%) and the regional air resources board (30% to 18%) should have primary responsibility for air quality standards. There are no significant differences across party or ideology. “Which level of government do you think should have the primary responsibility for setting air quality standards in your part of the Central Valley? Should it be...” State government Regional air resources board Local government Federal government Other answer Don’t know All Adults 29% 26 22 12 2 9 North Valley 23% 30 29 11 2 5 Subregion Sacramento North San Metro Joaquin 32% 24% 32 25 18 25 9 13 22 7 11 South San Joaquin 30% 20 22 14 3 11 Latinos 24% 18 23 17 0 18 Two in three Central Valley residents would be willing to see the federal government set tougher standards on air pollution. Forty-four percent of residents would support these regulations even if the regulations hurt the economy in their part of the Central Valley, while 24 percent would support new regulations only if they did not harm the economy. One in four residents does not favor any increase in air pollution regulation. Public support for tougher air pollution standards is evident across subregions. With respect to race/ethnicity, 81 percent of Latinos would be willing to see tougher air pollution standards compared to 63 percent of whites; Latinos and whites (both 44%) are equally likely to support new regulations, even if the regulations hurt local economies. Most Democrats (54%) and independents (53%) favor tougher standards, even if they might prove detrimental to the economy, while a plurality of Republicans (43%) do not want any more federal regulations on air pollution. “Would you be willing to see the federal government set tougher standards on air pollution?” (if yes: “Even if these regulations hurt the economy in your part of the Central Valley?”) All Adults Yes, even if regulations hurt economy Yes, but not if regulations hurt economy No Don’t know 44% 24 26 6 North Valley 47% 19 29 5 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 44% 41% 21 27 28 25 77 South San Joaquin 45% 26 24 5 Latinos 44% 37 12 7 - 11 - April 2004 Governance and Policy Preferences Planning for Future Growth Central Valley residents are more inclined to say that local authorities should handle growth and development policy in their part of the Central Valley. Fifty-nine percent say that either county or city government (37% and 22%, respectively) should bear most responsibility for growth and development policy (28 percent think the state government should be the most responsible policymaker, and 7 percent think it should be the federal government). Across each of the Central Valley’s subregions, most name local governments, with pluralities choosing county government as the most responsible party for growth policy. A somewhat higher percentage of Democrats than Republicans say state government should bear most responsibility in this policy area (31% to 25%), while a slightly higher percentage of Republicans than Democrats say county government should be most responsible (45% to 39%). Whites are more likely than Latinos to name county government as the responsible entity (42% to 27%). Residents who have lived at their current residence five years or more are more likely than those who have lived fewer years at their current residence to say that county government should be most responsible (40% to 33%). “Which level of government do you think should be most responsible for growth and development policy in your part of the Central Valley?” County government State government City government Federal government Other answer Don’t know All Adults 37% 28 22 7 1 5 North Valley 42% 24 27 4 0 3 Subregion Sacramento North San Metro Joaquin 38% 33% 30 24 19 30 56 21 66 South San Joaquin 36% 29 19 9 1 6 Latinos 27% 28 21 11 0 13 While a majority of residents favor local control of growth policies, most also prefer regional cooperation among local governments. Seven in ten residents think city and county government should get together and agree on land use and growth policy, while only one in four residents say that each city and county government should decide land use and growth policy on its own. Majorities in all subregions think local governments should work together, although North Valley residents are the most likely to say that each city and county government should determine growth policies on its own (30%). Across political and demographic groups, most residents agree that local governments should work together. “Which of the following statements is closer to your own view…” City and county government should get together and agree on land use and growth policy Each city and county government should decide land use and growth policy on its own Don’t know All Adults 69% 25 6 North Valley 65% Subregion Sacramento North San Metro Joaquin South San Joaquin Latinos 70% 71% 68% 66% 30 25 24 25 23 5 5 5 7 11 - 12 - Economic, Social, and Political Trends Economic Outlook Residents’ outlook on the Central Valley economy is somewhat gloomy: Only 38 percent rate the region’s economic health as excellent or good. This is similar to the relatively pessimistic economic outlook we witnessed one year ago and is below residents’ more positive ratings in 1999, 2001, and 2002. At the same time, ratings appear to be rebounding in the Sacramento Metro area—where 45 percent of residents now see the economy as excellent or good, up from 39 percent in 2003—and in South San Joaquin—where positive ratings have risen slightly from 33 percent in 2003 to 37 percent today. Economic assessments remain lower in the North Valley (29%) and North San Joaquin (30%). Latinos are considerably more negative in their economic outlook than whites (27% to 43%). Positive ratings of the Central Valley economy increase with age, education, income, and homeownership. Among residents with annual household incomes of $80,000 or more, 53 percent give the economy positive ratings. “How would you rate the economy in the Central Valley” Excellent / Good Fair Poor Don't know 1999 55% 35 9 1 2001 49% 37 13 1 2002 45% 41 12 2 2003 35% 49 15 1 2004 38% 44 15 3 Nearly three in 10 residents (29%) believe that their part of the Central Valley is in a serious or moderate recession today. This is virtually the same as in 2003, when 30 percent said that their area of the Central Valley was in a serious or moderate recession. However, 54 percent today say that their local area is not in recession, up slightly from the 49 percent who offered this assessment in 2003. The outlook is brightest in the Sacramento Metro area, where 59 percent think that there is no recession, compared to 49 percent in the North Valley, 51 percent in North San Joaquin, and 51 percent in South San Joaquin. About half of Latinos (53%) see their area as being in at least a mild recession compared to 33 percent of whites. Positive views of the local economy increase with income, education, and homeownership. “Thinking only about your part of the Central Valley, would you say that it is in an economic recession or not?” (if yes: “Do you think it is in a serious, a moderate, or a mild recession?”) Yes, serious recession Yes, moderate recession Yes, mild recession No, not in recession Don’t know All Adults 8% 21 10 54 7 North Valley 9% 19 12 49 11 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 6% 8% 18 22 10 9 59 51 7 10 South San Joaquin 9% 22 10 51 8 Latinos 9% 31 13 36 11 - 13 - Economic, Social, and Political Trends Personal Finances More than one in three Central Valley residents (37%) say they are better off financially today than they were a year ago, 14 percent say they are worse off, and nearly half (48%) say they are about the same. This is similar to April 2002, when 34 percent said they were better off than the previous year. Confidence is highest in South San Joaquin, where 42 percent feel they are better off today, compared to about one in three residents in the other subregions. Forty percent of Latinos and 36 percent of whites say they are financially better off today than they were a year ago. “As far as your own situation, would you say that you and your family are financially better off, worse off, or just about the same as you were a year ago?” Better off Worse off About the same Don’t know All Adults 37% 14 48 1 North Valley 33% 14 53 0 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 35% 15 34% 15 49 50 11 South San Joaquin 42% 13 44 1 Latinos 40% 12 47 1 Many Central Valley residents continue to be concerned about employment loss in their immediate family: Twenty-eight percent say they are very or somewhat worried that they or someone in their family will lose their job in the next year. In 2002, 22 percent expressed similar concerns about layoffs. Today, Latinos (42%) are twice as likely as whites (21%) to worry about job loss. Residents making under $40,000 (35%), those with high school or less education (33%), and non-citizens (58%) are more worried about unemployment than others. Fears about job loss are similar across all of the Central Valley’s subregions. “Are you concerned that you or someone in your family will lose their job in the next year, or not?” (if yes: “Are you very concerned or somewhat concerned?”) Yes, very concerned Yes, somewhat concerned No, not concerned Don’t know All Adults 14% 14 70 2 North Valley 16% 14 68 2 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 12% 15 71 2 15% 14 68 3 South San Joaquin 14% 13 71 2 Latinos 21% 21 55 3 Nonetheless, about half of Central Valley residents (47%) believe that they will be in better financial shape a year from now than they are today. In 2002, 41 percent felt that they would be better off in the following year. Today, only 7 percent think they will be financially worse off next year, and 41 percent say they will be about the same. Residents in the North Valley (35%) are less inclined to think they will be better off next year than those in the Sacramento Metro area (47%), North San Joaquin (48%), and South San Joaquin (50%). Financial optimism is at its highest point among 18 to 34 year olds (59%), households with annual incomes of $80,000 or more (58%), families with children at home (57%), Latinos (54%), and renters (54%). - 14 - Economic, Social, and Political Trends Computers and the Internet Computer use has risen in the past five years, with 56 percent of Central Valley residents today saying they frequently use a computer, up 7 points since 1999. Today, the 73 percent of Central Valley residents who at least occasionally use a computer is in line with the national average (75%: Pew Research Center, March 2004), and somewhat below the state average (78%: PPIC Statewide Survey, January 2002). Computer use is highest among Sacramento Metro residents, where 67 percent say they use a computer frequently at home, work, or school, and lowest in the South San Joaquin area, where fewer than half of residents (47%) frequently use a computer. Six in 10 North Valley residents (58%) and 52 percent in the North San Joaquin area use computers often. The digital divide between Central Valley Latinos and whites appears to be widening. Similar to 1999, 51 percent of Latinos report using a computer at least occasionally, but only 31 percent use one frequently. Meanwhile, among whites, frequent computer use has grown from 53 percent to 65 percent in the past five years, increasing the gap between Latinos and whites on frequent usage from 19 points in 1999 to 34 points today. Internet use in the Central Valley has risen by 13 points, with half of residents now going on line frequently, up from 37 percent five years ago. Central Valley residents are now as likely to use the Internet (66%) as Americans nationally (68%: Pew Research Center, March 2004), although they remain somewhat less likely than all Californians to access the Internet at least sometimes (72%: PPIC Statewide Survey, January 2002). Across the Central Valley, Internet use is highest in the Sacramento Metro area, where 62 percent go on line frequently, and lowest in South San Joaquin (40%). Four in 10 Latinos use the Internet, including 25 percent who use it frequently—a slight increase from 21 percent in 1999. However, there has been a widening gap between Latinos and whites in frequent use of the Internet: In 1999, the digital divide on Internet usage was 19 points (21% to 40%); today its stands at 34 points (25% to 59%). Nearly two in three Central Valley homes have a computer (62%), a significant increase from the 55 percent of homes owning a computer in 1999. In nearly half of Central Valley homes, the personal computer is used often (45%), an increase of 10 points in five years. Seven in 10 Sacramento Metro homes (72%) own computers, compared to 64 percent in the North Valley, 58 percent in the North San Joaquin Valley, and 54 percent in South San Joaquin. Computer ownership among Latinos is virtually the same today (34%) as it was in 1999 (35%). Do you yourself ever use a computer at home, at work, or at school? (if yes: Do you use a computer often or only sometimes?) Do you ever go on line to access the Internet or worldwide web or send or receive email? (if yes: Do you do this often or only sometimes?) Do you have any type of personal computer, including laptops, in your home? This does not include game machines. (if yes: Do you use your home computer often, only sometimes, or never?) Yes, often Yes, sometimes No Yes, often Yes, sometimes No / Don’t use computers Yes, often Yes, sometimes No computer 1999 49% 21 30 37% 17 46 35% 20 45 2004 56% 17 27 50% 16 34 45% 17 38 - 15 - April 2004 Economic, Social, and Political Trends Religious Beliefs and Values Comparing the current survey to the February 2004 PPIC Statewide Survey, we find that Central Valley residents are more likely than Californians as a whole to say that religion is “very important” in their own lives (53% to 45%). Nearly half of Central Valley residents (44%) attended a religious service in the past week, similar to 43 percent nationwide (Gallup Poll, November 2003). Most Central Valley residents (57%) also say that they are very or somewhat involved with religious activities. Three in four Central Valley residents describe themselves as Christians, including 42 percent who consider themselves Protestant and 32 percent who consider themselves Roman Catholic. Eight percent prefer another religion, and 14 percent do not adhere to any religious denomination. Nearly four in 10 Central Valley Christians (37%) consider themselves “born-again” or evangelical Christians. By comparison, Californians as a whole are more likely to say they have no religion (19%), and statewide Christians are somewhat less likely to consider themselves “born-again” or evangelical Christians (31%). There are strong variations across the Central Valley. For instance, church attendance is higher in North San Joaquin (48%) and South San Joaquin (50%) than in the North Valley (32%) and Sacramento Metro area (38%). Similarly, six in 10 in the San Joaquin valleys are at least somewhat involved in religious activities, compared to about half in the North Valley and Sacramento Metro area. There are also significant differences between Latinos and whites. Latinos are more regularly involved with religion, with 56 percent saying they attended a religious service in the past week, compared to 38 percent of whites. Sixty-three percent of Latinos say they are involved with religious organizations or activities, compared to 54 percent of whites. Sixty-two percent of Latinos say that religion is very important in their lives, compared to 48 percent of whites. Religious affiliation also varies significantly across these two groups: Seventy-three percent of Latinos are Roman Catholic, while 51 percent of whites are Protestant. Personal involvement in religious activities is higher among Republicans (65%) than Democrats (54%). Similarly, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to attend religious services (50% to 39%) and to say that religion is very important in their lives (60% to 49%). Nearly half of Republican Christians (47%) say they are born-again, compared to 33 percent of Democratic Christians. “Did you yourself happen to attend church or synagogue or a place of religious worship in the last seven days, or not?” All Adults North Valley Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin South San Joaquin Latinos Yes 44% 32% 38% 48% 50% 56% No 56 68 62 52 50 44 “How involved are you in religious or spiritual activities, including time spent with religious organizations?” Very involved Somewhat involved Not involved Don’t know All Adults 21% 36 42 1 North Valley 17% 33 50 0 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 19% 22% 32 40 49 37 01 South San Joaquin 24% 39 37 0 Latinos 17% 46 36 1 - 16 - Economic, Social, and Political Trends Political Interests and Involvement Central Valley residents report a high level of interest in government and public affairs, with 77 percent saying they follow what’s going on most (45%) or some (32%) of the time. In our 1999 survey, a similar 78 percent said they followed government and public affairs most (43%) or some (35%) of the time. Sixty-six percent of residents say they have a great deal or fair amount of interest in politics, comparable to the 68 percent of Californians who gave this response in our February 2004 PPIC Statewide Survey. Political interest is somewhat higher in the North Valley and Sacramento Metro area than in the San Joaquin Valley subregions. However, proximity to the state capitol does not appear to make a difference in terms of having a great deal or fair amount of interest in politics: Sacramento Metro residents (69%) have a somewhat similar level of interest as those in the North San Joaquin (64%) and South San Joaquin (62%) subregions and are actually less interested in politics than those living in the North Valley (76%). Latinos express considerably less interest in politics, with only 46 percent saying they have a great deal or fair amount of interest in politics, compared to 75 percent of whites. Also, 60 percent of Latinos say they follow what’s going on in government and public affairs most or some of the time, compared to 85 percent of whites. Moreover, following statewide trends, only 48 percent of Latinos report that they are registered to vote, compared to 86 percent of whites. Central Valley Republicans are more likely than Democrats to have a great deal or a fair amount of interest in politics (83% to 75%) and to follow government and public affairs most of the time (61% to 51%). Political interest is also higher among older, more educated, and more affluent residents. “Would you say you follow what's going on in government and public affairs most of the time, some of the time, only now and then, hardly ever, or never?” Most of the time Some of the time Only now and then Hardly ever Never Don’t know All Adults 45% 32 14 5 2 2 North Valley 51% 34 7 5 2 1 Subregion Sacramento North San Metro Joaquin 49% 42% 32 32 12 19 55 12 10 South San Joaquin 43% 33 15 5 4 0 Latinos 25% 35 29 6 5 0 “Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics?” Great deal Fair amount Only a little None Don’t know All Adults 23% 43 24 9 1 North Valley 28% 48 14 8 2 Subregion Sacramento North San Metro Joaquin 24% 22% 45 42 23 27 78 11 South San Joaquin Latinos 21% 14% 41 32 26 36 11 17 11 - 17 - April 2004 Economic, Social, and Political Trends Political Beliefs and Values The political profile of Central Valley residents is holding steady over time, with three in 10 residents calling themselves politically liberal (29%) or moderate (29%) and four in 10 (42%) describing themselves as conservative. This profile has remained about the same since our first Central Valley survey in 1999. Compared to the state as a whole, Central Valley residents lean slightly more to the conservative side of the political spectrum: Statewide, 35 percent of Californians describe themselves as politically conservative and 34 percent say they are liberal (PPIC Statewide Survey, February 2004). Across subregions, residents are as likely to be liberal as conservative in the North Valley (36% each) and Sacramento Metro area (32% to 38%), whereas they are much more likely to be conservative than liberal in the subregions of North San Joaquin (41% to 27%) and South San Joaquin (49% to 24%). Forty-two percent of Central Valley Democrats describe themselves as liberal, and 69 percent of Republicans describe themselves as conservative. Overall, there are only marginal differences in how Latinos and whites describe their political orientations. Asked their preference for the size of government, residents chose a larger government with more services by a narrow 6-point margin (48% to 43%). Bigger government is more popular among Latinos than among whites (77% to 34%), and favored by more Democrats than Republicans (55% to 21%). Across the subregions, smaller government is the favorite in the north, and bigger government is preferred in the south. “Would you consider yourself to be politically…” Liberal Moderate Conservative 1999 26% 31 43 2002 25% 32 43 2003 25% 31 44 2004 29% 29 42 Liberal Moderate Conservative All Adults 29% 29 42 North Valley 36% 28 36 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 32% 27% 30 32 38 41 South San Joaquin 24% 27 49 Party Registration Dem 42% 36 22 Rep 10% 21 69 “If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller government with fewer services or a bigger government providing more services?” Smaller government, fewer services Bigger government, more services Don’t know All Adults 43% 48 9 North Valley 55% Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 48% 38% 38 43 79 53 9 South San Joaquin 38% Party Registration Dem Rep 32% 71% 52 55 21 10 13 8 - 18 - Survey Methodology The Central Valley Survey is a special edition of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which is directed by Mark Baldassare, research director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance in research and writing from Jon Cohen, survey research manager, and Eliana Kaimowitz and Renatta DeFever, survey research associates. This project was conducted in collaboration with the Great Valley Center. The survey benefited from consultation with Carol Whiteside and Richard Cummings at the Great Valley Center, as well as conversations with other experts in the Central Valley region; however, Mark Baldassare made all final decisions about survey methodology, questions, and the content of this report. The findings of the survey are based on telephone interviews from April 12 to April 20, 2004, with 2,005 adult residents in the 19-county Central Valley region. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers, ensuring that both listed and unlisted telephone numbers were called. All telephone exchanges in the Central Valley were eligible for calling. Telephone numbers in the survey sample were called up to six times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Each interview took an average of 19 minutes to complete and was conducted in English or Spanish, as needed. We used recent U.S. Census and state figures to compare the demographic characteristics of the survey sample with characteristics of the Central Valley’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to U.S. Census and state figures. The survey data in this report were statistically weighted by age, gender, and region to account for any demographic differences. The sampling error for the total sample of 2,005 adults is +/- 2 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 2 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in the Central Valley were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger. Sampling error is just one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. Throughout this report, we refer to four geographic subregions in the Central Valley. “North Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, Glenn, Shasta, and Tehama Counties. “Sacramento Metro” includes El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “North San Joaquin” includes Merced, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus Counties. “South San Joaquin” includes Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, and Tulare Counties. Please note that these subregional definitions changed in 2003; in prior years, Sutter and Yuba were considered part of the North Valley, and El Dorado County was not designated as part of the Central Valley. In this report, all reported changes over time within subregions take account of the updated county classification. We frequently compare the results for Latinos with those for non-Hispanic whites. Latinos account for about 26 percent of the Central Valley’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest growing groups in this region. The Asian and black samples are not large enough for separate statistical analysis. In some cases, the current Central Valley Survey uses questions from the 1999, 2001, 2002, and 2003 PPIC Central Valley surveys or compares results to these surveys in order to highlight trends over time, and we use the 1998-2004 PPIC Statewide Surveys to compare opinions of Central Valley residents today with those of adult residents in the state as a whole and residents of the state’s other major regions. We also compare opinions in the Central Valley to those reported in national surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center and the Gallup Poll. - 19 - PPIC STATEWIDE: SPECIAL SURVEY ON THE CENTRAL VALLEY APRIL 12—APRIL 20, 2004 2,005 CALIFORNIA ADULT RESIDENTS; ENGLISH AND SPANISH MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 2% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE 1. Which of the following best describes the city or community where you live—is it a large city, a suburb of a large city, a small city or town, or a rural area? (if large city: Do you live in the central part of the city?) (if suburb: Would that be an older or newer suburb?) 11% large city, central part 10 large city, other part 8 suburb, older 5 suburb, newer 35 small city 16 town 14 rural area 1 don’t know 2. Overall, how would you rate your city or community as a place to live? Would you say it is excellent, good, fair, or poor? 31% excellent 44 good 19 fair 5 poor 1 don’t know 3. In the past five years, do you think the population of your city or community has been growing rapidly, growing slowly, staying about the same, or declining? 71% growing rapidly 16 growing slowly 8 staying about the same 1 declining 4 don’t know 4. Overall, in the past five years, would you say the quality of life in your city or community has gotten better or gotten worse or has it stayed about the same? 31% better 17 worse 48 same 4 don’t know 5. Next, we are interested in your opinions about the broader geographic area you live in—the Central Valley—which is the inland area of California stretching from Bakersfield to Redding. What do you think is the most important issue facing the Central Valley today? [Open-ended question] 19% air pollution, pollution in general 12 jobs, unemployment, economy 12 population growth and development 8 water availability and quality 8 crime, gangs 6 traffic, transportation 3 education, schools 3 housing costs and availability 2 drugs 12 other 15 don’t know 6. Do you think that things in the Central Valley are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 53% right direction 32 wrong direction 15 don’t know 7. In general, how would you rate the economy in the Central Valley? Would you say it is excellent, good, fair, or poor? 4% excellent 34 good 44 fair 15 poor 3 don’t know 8. Thinking about only your part of the Central Valley, would you say that it is in an economic recession or not? (if yes: Do you think it is in a serious, a moderate, or a mild recession?) 8% yes, serious recession 21 yes, moderate recession 10 yes, mild recession 54 no 7 don’t know - 21 - 9. In the future, do you think that the Central Valley will be a better place to live than it is now, or a worse place to live than it is now, or that there will be no change? 42% better place 27 worse place 24 no change 7 don’t know I’d like to ask how you would rate some of the public services in your local area. For each one, please tell me if you think it is excellent, good, fair, or poor. [rotate questions 10 to 13] 10. How about local parks and other public recreational facilities? 18% excellent 49 good 23 fair 8 poor 2 don’t know 11. How about local streets and roads? 7% excellent 37 good 35 fair 19 poor 2 don’t know 12. How about local police protection? 17% excellent 50 good 21 fair 9 poor 3 don’t know 13. How about local public schools? 14% excellent 40 good 26 fair 11 poor 9 don’t know [rotate questions 14 and 15] 14. Overall, how would you rate the performance of your city government in solving problems in your local area—excellent, good, fair, or poor? 5% excellent 35 good 39 fair 14 poor 2 not a city (volunteered) 5 don’t know 15. Overall, how would you rate the performance of county government in solving problems in your county—excellent, good, fair, or poor? 3% excellent 33 good 42 fair 15 poor 7 don’t know I am now going to read you a list of problems other people have told us about. For each one, please tell me if you think this is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem in your part of the Central Valley. [rotate questions 16 to 19] 16. How about traffic congestion on freeways and major roads? 44% big problem 33 somewhat of a problem 22 not a problem 1 don’t know 17. How about the loss of farms and agricultural lands? 38% big problem 30 somewhat of a problem 27 not a problem 5 don’t know 18. How about air pollution? 45% big problem 31 somewhat of a problem 23 not a problem 1 don’t know 19. How about population growth and development? 32% big problem 32 somewhat of a problem 35 not a problem 1 don’t know For each of the following, please tell me if you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, or not satisfied. [rotate questions 20 to 23] 20. How do you feel about the job opportunities that are available in your part of the Central Valley—are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, or not satisfied? 13% very satisfied 44 somewhat satisfied 37 not satisfied 6 don’t know - 22 - 21. How do you feel about the availability of housing that you can afford in your part of the Central Valley—are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, or not satisfied? 19% very satisfied 37 somewhat satisfied 41 not satisfied 3 don’t know 22. How do you feel about the availability of public colleges and universities in your part of the Central Valley—are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, or not satisfied? 37% very satisfied 43 somewhat satisfied 15 not satisfied 5 don’t know 23. How do you feel about the availability of outdoor leisure activities in your part of the Central Valley— are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, or not satisfied? 39% very satisfied 42 somewhat satisfied 16 not satisfied 3 don’t know 24. And which of these two views is closest to your own— [rotate] Immigrants today are a benefit to your part of the Central Valley because of their hard work and job skills, or immigrants today are a burden to your part of the Central Valley because they use public services. 60% benefit 28 burden 12 don’t know 25. And how much of a problem is illegal immigration into your part of the Central Valley—is it a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem? 25% big problem 31 somewhat of a problem 38 not a problem 6 don’t know 26. On another topic, how serious a health threat is air pollution in your part of the Central Valley to you and your immediate family—do you think that it is a very serious, somewhat serious, or not too serious health threat? 29% very serious 37 somewhat serious 32 not too serious 2 don’t know 27. Which level of government do you think should have the primary responsibility for setting air quality standards in your part of the Central Valley? Should it be … [read rotated list] 29% the state government 26 a regional air resources board 22 the local government 12 the federal government 2 other answer (specify) 9 don’t know 28. Would you be willing to see the federal government set tougher standards on air pollution? (if yes: Would this be true even if these regulations hurt the economy in your part of the Central Valley?) 44% yes, even if regulations hurt the economy 24 yes, but not if regulations hurt the economy 26 no 6 don’t know 29a. [half sample] On another topic, do you think that the water supply available in your part of the Central Valley today will be adequate or inadequate to meet needs through the next 10 years? (if inadequate: Is that somewhat inadequate or very inadequate?) 46% adequate 25 somewhat inadequate 19 very inadequate 10 don’t know 29b. [half sample] On another topic, do you think that the quality of the water supply in your part of the Central Valley today is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem? 19% big problem 34 somewhat of a problem 45 not a problem 2 don’t know 30a. [half sample] There is a limited amount of water supply available in the Central Valley. Which of the following do you think should be the most important priority for water policy in making plans for the valley’s future: [rotate] providing water for farms and agricultural uses, providing water for homes and residents, or protecting the environment? 38% farms and agriculture 30 homes and residents 21 protecting the environment 5 other (specify) 6 don’t know - 23 - April 2004 30b. [half sample] What do you think about farmers selling water they now receive for agricultural uses in order to provide the water for new housing and residents? Is this a good idea or a bad idea? 26% good idea 59 bad idea 15 don’t know 31. Next, you may know that the term “infrastructure” refers to a variety of public works projects. Which infrastructure projects do you think should have top priority for public funding in the Central Valley? [read rotated list, then ask “or something else?”] 49% school facilities 18 surface transportation 16 water systems 5 sewer systems 2 airports 3 something else (specify) 7 don’t know 32a. [half sample] A new university campus is being built in the Central Valley. How important is the University of California at Merced to the future economy and quality of life in the Central Valley—is it very important, somewhat important, or not important? 46% very important 35 somewhat important 14 not important 5 don’t know 32b. [half sample] What if there was a measure on your local ballot to increase property taxes in order to provide more funds for the local schools? Would you vote yes or no? 56% yes 40 no 4 don’t know 33. Which of the following types of surface transportation projects do you think should have top priority for public funding in the Central Valley? [read rotated list, then ask “or something else?”] 25% local streets and roads 23 freeways and highways 15 light rail system 12 public bus system 12 high-speed rail 6 carpool lanes 2 something else (specify) 5 don’t know 34a. [half sample] The November 2004 state ballot may include a 9.95 billion dollar bond measure that would fund the planning and construction of a high-speed train in California, linking Los Angeles to San Francisco via the Central Valley. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no? 55% yes 38 no 7 don’t know 34b. [half sample] What if there was a measure on your county ballot to increase the local sales tax for local transportation projects by one-half cent? Would you vote yes or no? 64% yes 32 no 4 don’t know 35. On another topic, which level of government do you think should be most responsible for growth and development policy in your part of the Central Valley? [read rotated list] 37% county government 28 state government 22 city government 7 federal government 1 other (specify) 5 don’t know 36. Which of the following statements is closer to your view: [rotate] City and county governments in your region should get together and agree on land use and growth policy, or each city and county government in your region should decide land use and growth policy on its own. 69% local governments should get together 25 local governments decide on their own 6 don’t know 37a. [half sample] Overall, when thinking about candidates for local offices, what are you most interested in learning about the candidates—is it their … [read rotated list] 40% stand on the issues 19 experience 17 character 11 intelligence 5 party platform 4 something else (volunteered) 4 don’t know - 24 - 37b.[half sample] Changing subjects, how important do you think it is to have a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization with the purpose of bringing together city and county governments, businesses, and citizens’ groups to work together on issues facing the Central Valley—is it very important, somewhat important, or not important? 55% very important 32 somewhat important 10 not important 3 don’t know [rotate questions 38 and 39] 38. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California? 62% approve 25 disapprove 13 don’t know 39. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president of the United States? 52% approve 41 disapprove 7 don’t know 40. Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics—a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 23% great deal 43 fair amount 24 only a little 9 none 1 don’t know 41. Would you say you follow what’s going on in government and public affairs most of the time, some of the time, only now and then, hardly ever, or never? 45% most of the time 32 some of the time 14 only now and then 5 hardly ever 2 never 2 don’t know 42. Some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote? 74% yes [ask q43] 26 no [skip to q44a] 43. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or as an independent? 40% Democrat [ask q44b] 42 Republican [ask q44c] 4 another party [specify] [skip to q45] 14 independent [ask q44a] 44a.Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party? 25% Republican party 37 Democratic party 25 neither (volunteered) 13 don’t know [skip to q45] 44b.Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 48% strong 49 not very strong 3 don’t know [skip to q45] 44c.Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 62% strong 36 not very strong 2 don’t know [ask q45] 45. If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller government with fewer services or a bigger government providing more services? 43% smaller government, fewer services 48 bigger government, more services 9 don’t know 46. How often would you say you vote—always, nearly always, part of the time, seldom, or never? 47% always 20 nearly always 9 part of the time 4 seldom 19 never 1 don’t know 47. On another topic, would you consider yourself to be politically ... (“don’t knows” coded as missing) 9% very liberal 20 somewhat liberal 29 middle-of-the-road 27 somewhat conservative 15 very conservative - 25 - April 2004 48. Do you yourself ever use a computer at home, at work, or at school? (if yes: Do you use a computer often or only sometimes?) 56% yes, often [ask q49] 17 yes, sometimes [ask q49] 27 no [skip to q50] 49. Do you ever go on line to access the Internet or worldwide web or send or receive email? (if yes: Do you do this often or only sometimes?) 50% yes, often 16 yes, sometimes 34 no 50. Do you have any type of personal computer, including laptops, in your home? These do not include game machines. (if yes: Do you use your home computer often, only sometimes, or never?) 45% yes, often 17 yes, sometimes 38 no computer/ never use 51. On another topic, as far as your own situation, would you say that you and your family are financially better off, worse off, or just about the same as you were a year ago? 37% better off 14 worse off 48 about the same 1 don’t know 52. Do you think that a year from now you and your family will be financially better off or worse off or just about the same as now? 47% better off 7 worse off 41 about the same 5 don’t know 53. And are you concerned that you or someone in your family will lose their job in the next year, or not? (if yes: Are you very concerned or somewhat concerned?) 14% yes, very concerned 14 yes, somewhat concerned 70 no, not concerned 2 don’t know 54. On another topic, how involved are you in religious or spiritual activities—including time spent with religious organizations—are you very involved, somewhat involved, or not involved? 21% very involved 36 somewhat involved 42 not involved 1 don’t know 55. And what is your religious preference—Protestant, Roman Catholic, Jewish, Muslim, Mormon, or an orthodox church such as the Greek or Russian Orthodox Church? 42% Protestant [include Baptist, Lutheran, Methodist, Presbyterian, Episcopalian, Pentecostal, Jehovah's Witness, Church of Christ, etc.] 32 Roman Catholic 1 Jewish [skip to q56] 2 Mormon [include Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints] 1 Orthodox Church [Greek or Russian] 8 other religion (specify) 14 no religion, not a believer, atheist, agnostic (volunteered) [skip to q56] 55a.Would you describe yourself as a "born again" or evangelical Christian, or not? 37% yes, would 58 no, would not 5 don’t know 56. How important would you say religion is in your own life? Would you say it is very important, fairly important, or not important? 53% very important 28 fairly important 18 not important 1 don’t know 57. Did you yourself happen to attend church or synagogue or a place of religious worship in the last seven days, or not? 44% yes 56 no [58-70: demographic questions] - 26 - PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Advisory Committee Mitchel Benson Director of Communications California Treasurer Phil Angelides Angela Blackwell President Policy Link Paul Brest President The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Mollyann Brodie Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley James E. Canales President The James Irvine Foundation Matt Fong Chairman Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation Advisory Committee William Hauck President California Business Roundtable Dennis A. Hunt Vice President Communications and Public Affairs The California Endowment Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Carol S. Larson President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Monica Lozano Publisher and CEO La Opinión Donna Lucas Deputy Chief of Staff Office of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger Max Neiman Professor Political Science Department University of California, Riverside Dan Rosenheim News Director KPIX-TV Carol Stogsdill President Stogsdill Consulting Cathy Taylor Vice President and Editorial Commentary Director Orange County Register Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center - 27- PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA Board of Directors Raymond L. Watson, Chairman Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Edward K. Hamilton Chairman Hamilton, Rabinovitz & Alschuler, Inc. Gary K. Hart Founder Institute for Education Reform California State University, Sacramento Walter B. Hewlett Director Center for Computer Assisted Research in the Humanities David W. Lyon President and CEO Public Policy Institute of California Vilma S. Martinez Partner Munger, Tolles & Olson LLP Cheryl White Mason Chief, Civil Liability Management Los Angeles City Attorney’s Office Arjay Miller Dean Emeritus Graduate School of Business Stanford University Ki Suh Park Design and Managing Partner Gruen Associates Constance L. Rice Co-Director The Advancement Project Thomas C. Sutton Chairman & CEO Pacific Life Insurance Company Cynthia A. Telles Department of Psychiatry UCLA School of Medicine Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center Advisory Council Mary C. Daly Research Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Clifford W. Graves General Manager Department of Community Development City of Los Angeles Elizabeth G. Hill Legislative Analyst State of California Hilary W. Hoynes Associate Professor Department of Economics University of California, Davis Andrés E. Jiménez Director California Policy Research Center University of California Office of the President Norman R. King Executive Director San Bernardino Associated Governments Daniel A. Mazmanian C. Erwin and Ione Piper Dean and Professor School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Dean Misczynski Director California Research Bureau Rudolf Nothenberg Chief Administrative Officer (Retired) City and County of San Francisco Manuel Pastor Professor, Latin American & Latino Studies University of California, Santa Cruz Peter Schrag Contributing Editor The Sacramento Bee James P. Smith Senior Economist RAND Corporation PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 800 San Francisco, California 94111 Phone: (415) 291-4400 Fax: (415) 291-4401 www.ppic.org info@ppic.org" } ["___content":protected]=> string(102) "

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" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(112) "https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-special-survey-of-the-central-valley-april-2004/s_404mbs/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(8404) ["ID"]=> int(8404) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:37:21" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(3600) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(8) "S 404MBS" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(8) "s_404mbs" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(12) "S_404MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(7) "1515569" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(93261) "PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY APRIL 2004 Public Policy Institute of California Special Survey of the Central Valley in collaboration with the Great Valley Center ○○○○○ Mark Baldassare Research Director & Survey Director The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) is a private operating foundation established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. The Institute is dedicated to improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. PPIC’s research agenda focuses on three program areas: population, economy, and governance and public finance. Studies within these programs are examining the underlying forces shaping California’s future, cutting across a wide range of public policy concerns, including education, health care, immigration, income distribution, welfare, urban growth, and state and local finance. PPIC was created because three concerned citizens – William R. Hewlett, Roger W. Heyns, and Arjay Miller – recognized the need for linking objective research to the realities of California public policy. Their goal was to help the state’s leaders better understand the intricacies and implications of contemporary issues and make informed public policy decisions when confronted with challenges in the future. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. David W. Lyon is founding President and Chief Executive Officer of PPIC. Raymond L. Watson is Chairman of the Board of Directors. 500 Washington Street, Suite 800 • San Francisco, California 94111 Telephone: (415) 291-4400 • Fax: (415) 291-4401 info@ppic.org • www.ppic.org Preface The Central Valley Survey – an ongoing collaborative effort of the Public Policy Institute of California and the Great Valley Center – is a special edition of the PPIC Statewide Survey. This is the fifth PPIC survey of the Central Valley. The first was conducted in October 1999 (published in a survey report in November 1999); the second was conducted in February 2001 (published in a survey report in March 2001); and the third and fourth were conducted and published in survey reports in April 2002 and April 2003. The purpose of this survey series is to provide comprehensive, advocacy-free information on the opinions and public policy preferences of Central Valley residents. The Central Valley has been of considerable interest to researchers and state and national leaders for some time because of its increasingly significant role in the social, economic, and political life of California. The Central Valley – the inland area of California stretching 400 miles from Bakersfield to Redding –is home to 5.7 million residents and has been one of the fastest growing areas of the state. By the year 2025, the Central Valley is expected to see its population increase to 9.3 million people. Because the region is the agricultural center of the state – and because agriculture is one of the state’s leading industries – the urbanization of farmland in the Central Valley is of great concern to state policymakers. The impact of growth on the water supply, air quality, surface transportation, education facilities, housing affordability, economic conditions, and the perceived quality of life is a major concern today throughout the region. Since the Central Valley is a large geographic region that is socially, politically, and economically diverse, the public’s experiences with population growth vary considerably across population subgroups and parts of the Central Valley, and so do residents’ awareness of regional problems and preferences for policy solutions. This survey of 2,005 adult residents includes some of the “tracking” questions from the 1999, 2001, 2002, and 2003 surveys in order to measure changes in key political, social, and economic indicators. We are particularly interested in examining trends over time since the 1999 benchmark survey. The survey also includes questions from PPIC Statewide Surveys, providing comparisons with other major regions of California and the state as a whole. The following issues are explored in this edition of the survey: • Local, regional, and Central Valley issues, including each resident’s satisfaction with his or her community and trends in the quality of life of that community, ratings of local public services, satisfaction with conditions and perceptions of problems in each resident’s area of the Central Valley, the most important problem facing the Central Valley, perceptions of the current direction of the Central Valley, and degree of optimism about the future of the Central Valley. • Governance and policy preferences, including local government ratings, public education facilities, transportation projects, water supply and quality, air quality regulations, and planning for the future. • Economic, social, and political trends, including ratings of the Central Valley economy, perceptions of economic recession occurring in each resident’s area of the Central Valley, perceptions of household finances, concerns about employment security, the frequency of use of computers and the Internet, religious beliefs and values, political interests and involvement, and political beliefs and values. • Trends in attitudes over time and across four different subregions of the Central Valley (i.e., North Valley, Sacramento Metro, North San Joaquin, and South San Joaquin); between Latinos and non-Hispanic whites; and across demographic and political groups. Copies of this report may be ordered by e-mail (order@ppic.org) or phone (415-291-4400). This report and the November 1999, March 2001, April 2002, and April 2003 reports are posted on the publications page of the PPIC web site (www.ppic.org). For questions about the survey, please contact survey@ppic.org. -i- - ii - Contents Preface Press Release Local, Regional, and Central Valley Issues Governance and Policy Preferences Economic, Social, and Political Trends Survey Methodology Survey Questions and Results Survey Advisory Committee i v 1 7 13 19 21 27 - iii - Press Release Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: http://www.ppic.org/main/pressreleaseindex.asp SPECIAL SURVEY OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY THERE’S NO PLACE LIKE HOME! Despite Grim View of Regional Problems, Central Valley Residents Like Where They Live SAN FRANCISCO, California, April 29, 2004 — Amid booming population growth – and the severe problems it can bring – Central Valley residents genuinely like their local communities and are optimistic about the area’s future, according to a survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), in collaboration with the Great Valley Center. This upbeat attitude creates quite a paradox, considering that many residents also voice serious and growing concern about vital regional issues such as air pollution, school quality, affordable housing, lack of job opportunities, and traffic congestion. A full three-fourths (75%) of Valley residents say their local community or city is a good or excellent place to live. “The enthusiasm residents have for their communities is striking because so many (71%) perceive that their local area has grown rapidly over the past five years,” says PPIC Statewide Survey Director Mark Baldassare. “Bursts of growth and development tend to arouse negative feelings among people who live in an area, so it’s quite remarkable that most Valley residents believe life has either improved or stayed the same, but not grown worse.” In fact, over half (53%) of residents believe that things in the Central Valley are headed in the right direction, while less than a third (32%) say things are moving in the wrong direction. Moreover, a plurality of residents (42%) believe the Central Valley will be a better place to live in the future, outnumbering those who believe it will be a worse place (27%). When turning to the state’s biggest trouble spot – the economy – Central Valley denizens may have a gloomier outlook than in the past, but even on this issue, there appears to be some optimism in some parts of the region. Today, 38 percent of all residents rate the local economy as good or excellent, down from 55 percent in 1999. However, in the Sacramento Metro area, positive economic ratings have risen in the past year – from 39 percent to 45 percent. “That’s particularly surprising for Sacramento, given the recent and expected state government layoffs,” says Baldassare. Similarly, residents in the South San Joaquin area also give the economy slightly higher marks today than they did a year ago (33% to 37%). The Devil’s in the Details – Bright Outlook Dims on Closer Inspection Underlying the overall optimism, however, are distinctly negative feelings toward many of the region’s public services and facilities – and a belief that local problems are growing worse. Since 1999, concern over traffic congestion has nearly doubled from 23 percent to 44 percent. Air pollution – viewed as the Valley’s most important issue – is now considered a big problem by 45 percent of the population, up from 28 percent in 1999. Furthermore, residents express increasing dissatisfaction with the lack of affordable housing: Positive ratings have fallen from 37 percent to 19 percent since 1999. There has also been a decline in confidence – sometimes dramatic – in the region’s public services and infrastructure: The percentage of residents who give high ratings to their local streets and roads has dropped 14 points, from 58 percent to 44 percent, in the past five years. Positive school ratings have declined from 59 percent to 54 percent since 1999. -v- Press Release Happy? Depends on Who… and Where Adding to the mixed picture, distinct differences emerge along racial and ethnic lines. For example, Latinos (59%) are much less likely than whites (83%) to rate their community as good or excellent. The disparities extend to many public services as well. Whites (72%) give much higher ratings to local police protection and parks and recreational facilities than Latinos do (58% police protection, 56% parks). Furthermore, only one-quarter (25%) of Latinos say they are very satisfied with the availability of colleges and universities in the region, compared to over one-third (37%) of all residents. “The divide between Latinos and whites on these issues likely comes from persisting social and economic differences,” says Baldassare. “Satisfaction with higher education and recreational facilities tends to increase among residents who own their own homes, and have higher incomes and more education.” One of the greatest and perhaps most troubling differences is the growing disparity in computer and Internet use between whites and Latinos. In 1999, the gap between frequent Latino and white Internet users was 19 points (21% Latinos, 40% whites); today it has climbed to 34 points (25% Latinos, 59% whites). Frequent Internet use among all Valley residents has risen from 37 percent to 50 percent since 1999. In another comparison, the rate of computer ownership among Latinos remains virtually the same as it was five years ago (34%), while the number of all Central Valley homes that have a computer has risen from 55 percent to 62 percent since 1999. The Central Valley’s regions also diverge sharply from each other on a number of issues. On the whole, there is greater community satisfaction in the north than in the south: North Valley (84%) and Sacramento Metro (81%), compared to North San Joaquin (71%) and South San Joaquin (70%). However, optimism about the future of the region is greater in the far south than the far north: Only 33 percent of North Valley residents say the Valley will be a better place to live in the future, compared to 47 percent of South San Joaquin residents. But what about specific quality of life issues? Northern residents are far less likely to say air pollution is a big problem (17% North Valley to 62% South San Joaquin), and many more residents of Sacramento Metro (63%) are troubled by traffic congestion than are residents of the less urban North Valley (29%), North San Joaquin (49%), and South San Joaquin (27%). Religion and Politics? Central Valley residents are more likely than Californians as a whole to say religion is a very important part of their lives (53% to 45%). But within the region, differences surface along ethnic and political lines. For example, 56 percent of Latinos say they attended a religious service in the past week, compared to just 38 percent of whites. Furthermore, 62 percent of Latinos say that religion is personally very important to them, while fewer than half of whites (48%) say the same. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to attend religious services (50% to 39%), and to say that religion plays an important role in their lives (60% to 49%). Nearly half of the Valley’s Republican Christians (47%) consider themselves to be “born-again” or evangelical Christians. As has been the case over time, Central Valley residents continue to lean toward the conservative side of the political spectrum – but with a few twists. A plurality (42%) consider themselves to be conservative, while 29 percent each say they are either liberal or moderate. On fundamental issues such as big versus small government, the numbers track ideological bents: Forty-three percent favor smaller government with fewer services, while 48 percent favor larger government with more services – as many moderates agree with liberals on this issue. While Latinos tend to favor bigger government, they may not be weighing in as much: Only 46 percent say they have a great or fair amount of interest in politics, compared to 75 percent of whites. More Key Findings • Schools Rule (page 8) Out of a list of infrastructure projects, residents pick schools (49%) as the top priority, far more than the next most popular choice – surface transportation (18%). Moreover, 51 percent of likely voters say they would support an increase in their property taxes to provide more funds for local schools. - vi - Press Release • Agriculture Prevails (page 10) More residents (38%) think the top priority of future water policy should be farms and agriculture, as opposed to homes and residents (30%). • Get Me Out of Traffic! (page 9) A majority (64%) of the relatively conservative Central Valley population would be willing to increase their local sales tax to pay for transportation projects. Generally, streets and roads (25%) and freeways and highways (23%) take priority over light rail (15%) or bus systems (12%). • The Air They Breathe (page 11) Sixty-eight percent of residents would support tougher federal standards on air pollution… but the number falls to 44 percent if those regulations would hurt local economies. About the Survey The Central Valley Survey – an ongoing collaborative effort of the Public Policy Institute of California and the Great Valley Center – is a special edition of the PPIC Statewide Survey. The purpose of this survey is to provide a comprehensive, advocacy-free study of the political, social, and economic attitudes and public policy preferences of Central Valley residents. Previous PPIC surveys of the Central Valley were conducted in 1999, 2001, 2002, and 2003. Findings of the current survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,005 adult residents in the 19-county Central Valley region, interviewed between April 12 and April 20, 2004. Interviews were conducted in English or Spanish. The sampling error for the total sample is +/- 2%. The sampling error for subgroups is larger. For more information on methodology, see page 19. Mark Baldassare is research director at PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has directed since 1998. His most recent book, A California State of Mind: The Conflicted Voter in a Changing World, is available at www.ppic.org. PPIC is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to improving public policy through objective, nonpartisan research on the economic, social, and political issues that affect Californians. The institute was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. This report will appear on PPIC’s website (www.ppic.org) on April 29. ### - vii - Percent all adults Percent Percent all adults What is the most important issue facing the Central Valley today? 20 19 12 12 10 8 8 0 Air Economy Pop. Crime & pollution/ & jobs grow th & gangs general dev. pollution Water Percent who are "very satisfied" with____ in their part of the Central Valley 1999 2004 50 43 39 40 48 37 37 30 23 19 20 13 10 0 Outdoor Public Housing you Job leisure colleges & can afford opportunities activities universities Percent of residents who describe themselves as politically conservative 80 70 60 50 42 40 30 20 10 0 All adults 69 22 Democrats Republicans Percent Percent all adults Percent saying air pollution is a "big problem" in their part of the Central Valley 80 70 60 50 37 39 40 30 17 20 10 0 North Valley Sacramento North San Metro Joaquin 62 South San Joaquin How would you rate the economy in the Central Valley? % excellent/ good 60 55% 49% 50 45% 40 35% 38% 30 20 10 0 Nov '99 March '01 April '02 April '03 April '04 Percent Percent saying they have attended religious services in the last seven days 80 70 60 50 44 40 30 20 10 0 All adults 38 w hites 56 Latinos Local, Regional, and Central Valley Issues Local Community Ratings Most Central Valley residents believe that life is good in their local communities. Three in four rate their city or community as an excellent or good place to live—a high degree of satisfaction that has persisted virtually unchanged across our five annual Central Valley surveys. However, there are differences across subregions and population groups. Satisfaction with the local community is somewhat higher in northern than in southern regions of the Central Valley and among whites (83%) than among Latinos (59%). Community satisfaction increases with age, education, income, and homeownership. Population growth has apparently not had much adverse effect on residents’ perceptions of local life. Seventy-one percent say their local communities have been growing rapidly in the past five years; this perception is most common among North San Joaquin (75%) and Sacramento Metro (74%) residents. Even with this growth, one in three residents say that their local communities have become better places to live in the past five years, and nearly half say that their communities have stayed about the same. Twenty-one percent of residents who have lived in the Central Valley for twenty years or more think that the region has become a worse place to live over the past five years, compared to 12 percent of those who have arrived in the region during the past five years. “Overall, how would you rate your city or community as a place to live?” Excellent / Good Fair Poor Don't know 1999 73% 21 6 0 2001 75% 20 5 0 2002 76% 20 4 0 2003 77% 18 4 1 2004 75% 19 5 1 Excellent / Good Fair Poor Don't know All Adults 75% 19 5 1 North Valley 84% 12 4 0 Subregion Sacramento North San South San Metro Joaquin Joaquin Latinos 81% 71% 70% 59% 15 24 22 33 3 4 88 1 1 00 “Overall, in the past five years, would you say the quality of life in your city or community has gotten better or gotten worse or has it stayed about the same?” Better Worse Same Don’t know All Adults 31% 17 48 4 North Valley 24% 15 56 5 Subregion Sacramento North San Metro Joaquin South San Joaquin Latinos 32% 34% 31% 32% 19 19 16 17 46 42 50 48 3 5 33 -1- Local, Regional, and Central Valley Issues Local Public Service Ratings Residents’ satisfaction with local public services might be expected to change in light of perceived rapid population growth and several years of tight state and local government budgets. However, evidence from the Central Valley is mixed. Over the course of the five annual surveys, two in three residents have continued to rate local police and local parks and recreation as excellent or good. Local public schools and local streets and roads have not fared as well: Excellent or good ratings of local public schools have declined by 5 points since 1999 (59% to 54%). Ratings of local streets and roads have dropped by 14 points since 1999 (58% to 44%) and 8 points since 2002 (52% to 44%). The public’s positive ratings of local police protection are fairly even across the Central Valley. However, the ratings of local parks and public recreation decline as one moves from north to south. Local public schools get the lowest positive ratings from North San Joaquin residents. Fewer than half across all subregions rate their local streets and roads as excellent or good. The declines in local public service ratings have also varied across subregions. For the local public schools, the largest declines in positive ratings since 1999 are among North San Joaquin (58% to 46%) and South San Joaquin (63% to 57%) residents. For local streets and roads, positive ratings have decreased since 2002 from 59 percent to 44 percent in the North Valley, from 56 percent to 48 percent in Sacramento Metro, from 49 percent to 45 percent in North San Joaquin, and from 50 percent to 41 percent in South San Joaquin. There are also noteworthy differences in local public service ratings across social and economic groups. For instance, whites are more likely than Latinos to give positive ratings to local police protection (72% to 58%) and local parks and public recreation (72% to 56%). Also, the longer residents have lived in the Central Valley, the lower the “excellent/good” rating of local streets and roads is likely to be (fewer than 5 years, 54%; 5 to 19 years, 49%; 20 or more years, 39%). Ratings of local public schools are similar across age, education, income, and racial/ethnic groups and among households with (56%) or without (52%) children at home. Percentage rating service excellent or good in their part of the Central Valley 1999 2001 2002 Local police protection Local parks and other public recreational facilities 69% 68 65 72% 68 Local public schools 59 58 58 Local streets and roads 58* 58* 52 *In the 1999 and 2001 Central Valley Surveys, “freeways” were included in this list. 2003 71% 71 56 49 2004 67% 67 54 44 Percentage rating service excellent or good in their part of the Central Valley Local police protection Local parks and other public recreational facilities Local public schools Local streets and roads All Adults 67% 67 54 44 North Valley 66% 74 63 44 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 68% 67% 73 64 52 46 48 45 South San Joaquin 66% Latinos 58% 60 56 57 54 41 44 -2- Local, Regional, and Central Valley Issues Regional Problems As in the previous four surveys, we asked Central Valley residents about how big a problem four conditions were in their parts of the region. More than four in 10 residents see air pollution and traffic congestion on freeways and major roads as big problems in their regions. Thirty-eight percent of residents identify the loss of farms and agriculture and 32 percent mentioned population growth and development as big problems in their parts of the Central Valley. The perception of these conditions as big problems has increased steadily over the past five years. Since the 1999 survey, concern has increased by 21 points for traffic congestion (23% to 44%), by 17 points for air pollution (28% to 45%), by 15 points for farm and agricultural land loss (23% to 38%), and by 11 points for population growth and development (21% to 32%). However, for the latter two problems, responses have changed very little over the past few years. Ratings differ across the valley’s subregions. Residents’ ratings of air pollution as a big problem increase sharply moving from north to south in the valley. Sacramento Metro residents are much more likely than residents elsewhere in the valley to say that traffic congestion is a big problem. Public concern about population growth and development and the loss of farms and agricultural lands are much more pronounced in the central subregions (i.e., Sacramento Metro, North San Joaquin) than at the northern and southern ends of the valley. Which subregions have seen the largest shifts in perceptions of problems since 1999? The proportion of residents rating air pollution as a big problem has grown by 34 percentage points in the South San Joaquin area (28% to 62%), while the proportion rating traffic congestion as a big problem has increased by 28 points in the North San Joaquin region (21% to 49%) and by 20 points in the Sacramento Metro area (43% to 63%). Perceptions of farmland loss and population growth and development increased in all subregions. The public’s perception of these four regional issues as big problems tends to increase with age, education, income, and years living in the Central Valley and is higher among whites than Latinos. Percentage seeing as a big problem in their part of the Central Valley Air pollution Traffic congestion on freeways and major roads Loss of farms and agricultural lands Population growth and development 1999 28% 23 23 21 2001 26% 29 34 26 2002 35% 33 38 29 2003 41% 41 40 31 2004 45% 44 38 32 Percentage seeing problem as a big Air pollution Traffic congestion on freeways and major roads Loss of farms and agricultural lands Population growth and development All Adults 45% 44 38 32 North Valley 17% 29 27 26 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 37% 39% 63 49 40 45 41 35 South San Joaquin 62% Latinos 43% 27 35 36 29 22 20 - 3 - April 2004 Local, Regional, and Central Valley Issues Regional Satisfaction Turning from problems to amenities, we asked Central Valley residents how satisfied they are with the availability of outdoor leisure activities, public colleges and universities, affordable housing, and job opportunities in their region of the valley. All in all, they are less satisfied than they were in the 1999 survey. Today, fewer than four in 10 residents say they are very satisfied with the availability of leisure activities and higher education, and fewer than two in 10 residents are very satisfied with housing and employment options. Satisfaction with affordable housing experienced the most dramatic drop—an 18-point decline in residents who say they are very satisfied (37% to 19%). There has been an 11-point decline in those who are very satisfied with the availability of public colleges and universities (48% to 37%), a 10-point drop in the percentage of those very satisfied with available job opportunities (23% to 13%), but only a 4-point decline in the percentage of residents who are very satisfied with outdoor recreation (43% to 39%). Since 1999, the percentages of residents who are not satisfied with housing (18% to 41%), jobs (31% to 37%), and higher education (10% to 15%) have grown. Dissatisfaction with outdoor leisure activities is unchanged (16%). Across the valley, North Valley residents give the highest ratings to their outdoor leisure activities and South San Joaquin residents are the most satisfied with affordable housing. The percentage of residents who are very satisfied with outdoor leisure activities is lowest among North San Joaquin residents. As for the significant subregional changes since the 1999 survey, North San Joaquin has seen a decline in the percentages of residents who are very satisfied with outdoor leisure (37% to 24%), public colleges and universities (48% to 34%), and affordable housing (36% to 15%). In the Sacramento Metro area, there has been a sharp drop in the proportions who are very satisfied with the availability of higher education (53% to 40%), affordable housing (31% to 13%) and employment opportunities (36% to 15%). There are also significant differences in levels of satisfaction across demographic groups. Latinos are less likely than whites to say they are very satisfied with the availability of outdoor leisure activities (24% to 47%) and public colleges and universities (25% to 43%). Satisfaction with these two domains tends to increase with age, education, income, and homeownership. There are few differences across racial/ethnic or demographic groups in satisfaction with affordable housing and job opportunities. Percentage saying they are very satisfied with the in their part of the Central Valley Availability of outdoor leisure activities Availability of public colleges and universities Availability of affordable housing Job opportunities 1999 43% 48 37 23 2004 39% 37 19 13 Percentage saying they are very satisfied with the in their part of the Central Valley Availability of outdoor leisure activities Availability of public colleges and universities Availability of affordable housing Job opportunities All Adults 39% 37 19 13 North Valley 64% 40 18 11 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 48% 24% 40 34 13 15 15 9 South San Joaquin 33% Latinos 24% 33 25 28 19 15 14 -4- Local, Regional, and Central Valley Issues Most Important Issue Nineteen percent of Central Valley residents identify air pollution or pollution in general as the most important issue confronting the Central Valley as a whole. The next most frequently mentioned issues on the public’s list of top concerns are jobs and the economy (12%), population growth and development (12%), water availability and quality (8%), crime and gangs (8%), and traffic (6%). The percentages of valley residents identifying air pollution or pollution in general as the top issue have increased dramatically over this survey series: Ten percent of residents mentioned air pollution and other types of pollution as the top issue facing the region in the 1999 survey, 9 percent in the 2001 survey, 14 percent in the 2002 survey, 16 percent in the 2003 survey, and 19 percent in the current survey. Perceptions of the most important issues in the Central Valley vary greatly across the four subregions. For example, South San Joaquin residents are much more likely to name air pollution and other types of pollution as the most important issue. In contrast, North Valley residents are very focused on water issues, while residents of other subregions do not tend to see water availability and quality as the top issue. Population growth and development is the most frequently cited issue among Sacramento Metro and North San Joaquin residents, while this issue is noted by far fewer residents at the northern and southern ends of the valley. Traffic congestion registers a substantial level of concern in the Sacramento Metro area, while few elsewhere mention it as the most important issue. There is relative consensus on only one issue across regions—the issue of jobs and the economy. Where are the largest changes in perceptions occurring over time? The most notable trend is in mentions of air pollution and pollution in general in South San Joaquin: Nine percent in 1999; 13 percent in 2001, 19 percent in 2002, 28 percent in 2003, and 32 percent in the current survey. Air pollution and pollution are at or near the top of the list of important issues across racial/ethnic groups and age, education, and income categories. Latinos are nearly three times more likely than whites to indicate that crime and gangs are the most important issue facing the Central Valley (14% to 5%). Latinos are also far less likely to report that population growth and development is the most important issue facing the Central Valley today (5% to 15%). “What do you think is the most important issue facing the Central Valley today?” Air pollution, pollution in general Jobs, unemployment, economy Population growth; development; sprawl Water availability and quality Crime, gangs Traffic, transportation Education, schools Housing costs, housing availability Drugs Other Don't know All Adults 19% 12 12 8 8 6 3 3 2 12 15 North Valley 5% 15 10 26 5 2 3 4 0 11 19 Subregion Sacramento North San South San Metro Joaquin Joaquin 12% 14% 32% 10 12 13 18 15 5 856 789 10 5 2 433 461 032 11 13 11 16 16 16 Latinos 17% 15 5 2 14 4 3 1 3 9 27 - 5 - April 2004 Local, Regional, and Central Valley Issues Overall Mood Despite concern about problems confronting the Central Valley and their particular region within it, residents are relatively upbeat about current trends and the future. They are more likely to say that things in the valley are going in the right than in the wrong direction (53% to 32%). Although there has been a downtrend in “right direction” responses, “wrong direction” responses have been fairly steady over the past five surveys. In general, Central Valley residents are more positive about the direction of their region than Californians were about the direction of the state in the February 2004 PPIC Statewide Survey (35% right direction, 51% wrong direction). The percentages saying the valley is going in the right direction vary across subregions, but the percentages saying the valley is going in the wrong direction are similar. Latinos are more likely than whites (58% to 50%) to see things going in the right direction. Perceptions that things are going right do not vary significantly across education and income groups. However, younger residents are more likely than older people to say that things are going in the right direction (under age 35, 58%; ages 35 to 54, 52%; age 55 and older, 48%). “Right direction” responses are also more common among recent than among longer-term Central Valley residents (fewer than 5 years, 60%; 5 to 20 years, 56%; 20 or more years, 49%) More residents think that the Central Valley will be a better place than a worse place to live in the future (42% to 27%), and the gap is larger than it was in the 1999 survey (37% to 33%). Latinos are more optimistic than whites (50% to 39%); and across the subregions, South San Joaquin residents are the most optimistic. “Do you think that things in the Central Valley are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?” Right direction Wrong direction Don't know 1999 63% 29 8 2001 59% 32 9 2002 55% 34 11 2003 58% 31 11 2004 53% 32 15 Right direction Wrong direction Don’t know All Adults 53% 32 15 North Valley 48% 32 20 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 50% 58% 34 32 16 10 South San Joaquin 54% 30 16 Latinos 58% 28 14 “In the future, do you think that the Central Valley will be a better place to live than it is now, or a worse place to live than it is now, or that there will be no change?” Better place Worse place No change Don’t know All Adults 42% 27 24 7 North Valley 33% 33 25 9 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 38% 44% 33 30 24 21 55 South San Joaquin 47% 19 25 9 Latinos 50% 16 27 7 -6- Governance and Policy Preferences Local Government Ratings Four in 10 Central Valley residents say that their city government is doing an excellent or good job in solving problems in their local area. These ratings of city government remain virtually the same as they were five years ago and are also similar to the excellent or good ratings cities reported in more recent surveys. Sacramento Metro residents are somewhat more positive toward their city governments than are residents of other Central Valley subregions: In the Sacramento area, 45 percent of residents say that their city government is doing an excellent or good job in solving local problems, compared to a low of 36 percent who give their city governments similar ratings in the North San Joaquin Valley. When residents are asked to rate the performance of their county government, 36 percent say their county government is doing an excellent or good job in solving county problems. The percentage of Central Valley residents rating their county government as excellent or good is down slightly from 1999 (41%). Overall, county governments receive somewhat lower positive ratings today than city governments and lower ratings than in previous surveys. There are only marginal differences in residents’ evaluations of their city and county governments across political party, age, household income, and length of residence. Overall, how would you rate the performance of your… City government in solving problems in your local area Excellent / Good Fair Poor Don’t know / don’t live in city County government in solving problems in your county Excellent / Good Fair Poor Don't know 1999 39% 38 15 8 41% 42 13 4 2001 40% 38 14 8 42% 40 13 5 2002 42% 37 13 8 44% 40 11 5 2003 44% 38 14 4 39% 43 14 4 2004 40% 39 14 7 36% 42 15 7 Overall, how would you rate the performance of your… All Adults City government in solving problems in your local area Excellent / Good Fair Poor Don’t know / don’t live in city County government in solving problems in your county Excellent / Good Fair Poor Don’t know 40% 39 14 7 36% 42 15 7 North Valley 37% 46 14 3 34% 41 21 4 Subregion Sacramento North San South San Metro Joaquin Joaquin 45% 35 36% 44 39% 38 13 12 17 Latinos 37% 46 12 7 8 65 39% 40 13 8 32% 47 15 6 35% 42 16 7 35% 45 12 8 -7- Governance and Policy Preferences School Facilities Presented with a list of various infrastructure projects, half of Central Valley residents (49%) highlight school facilities as the top priority for public funding. By comparison, just 18 percent choose surface transportation projects and 16 percent choose water systems as the top priority for public funding; fewer mention sewer systems (5%) and airports (2%). Residents’ priorities today are nearly the same as they were last year when we asked about priorities for 2025. As was also the case last year, prioritization of school facilities declines sharply with age, although it remains the top ranked infrastructure priority in all age groups. “Which infrastructure projects do you think should have top priority for public funding in the Central Valley?” School facilities Surface transportation Water systems Sewer systems Airports Something else Don’t know All Adults 49% 18 16 5 2 3 7 North Valley 53% 12 15 8 0 3 9 Subregion Sacramento North San Metro Joaquin 48% 24 49% 17 13 15 37 11 44 77 South San Joaquin 51% 13 20 4 3 2 7 Latinos 50% 12 15 6 3 2 12 In line with their strong support for school facilities, 56 percent of residents, and 51 percent of the region’s likely voters, say they would vote yes if there were a measure on their local ballot to increase property taxes in order to provide more funds for local schools. However, likely voter support falls short of the 55 percent supermajority needed to pass local tax increases for schools. Although there is majority support for local school tax measures across the Central Valley, Democrats (63%) and independents (56%) are more likely than Republicans (43%) to support tax increases. The University of California campus at Merced is currently one of the largest public higher education facility projects in the state of California. Central Valley residents appear to be enthusiastic about this project. Eight in 10 residents think the new campus is very (46%) or somewhat (35%) important to the future economy and quality of life in the Central Valley. Latinos (63%) and San Joaquin Valley residents are more likely than others to consider the construction of the new campus very important. Residents with and without children at home are nearly equally likely to view the new UC campus as very important. “A new university campus is being built in the Central Valley. How important is the University of California at Merced to the future economy and quality of life in the Central Valley?” Very important Somewhat important Not important Don’t know All Adults 46% 35 14 5 North Valley 37% 38 14 11 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 37% 53% 39 32 19 12 53 South San Joaquin 52% 33 12 3 Latinos 63% 26 7 4 -8- Governance and Policy Preferences Transportation Projects Asked to choose among surface transportation projects for the Central Valley, one in four residents thinks that local streets and roads should have the top priority for public spending. Nearly one in four give the top priority to freeways and highways, 15 percent to light rail systems, 12 percent to public buses, 12 percent to high-speed rail, and 6 percent to carpool lanes. Compared to last year’s survey, and in line with residents’ declining ratings of local streets and roads, residents today are somewhat more likely to identify local streets and roads (+ 6 percentage points) and freeways and highways (+ 5), and somewhat less likely to mention the public bus system (- 6), as the top priority for public funding. There are significant differences in transportation priorities across the Central Valley. In the North Valley and South San Joaquin, three in 10 residents give top priority to local streets and roads, while local streets and roads are the top transportation project for only 18 percent of residents in the Sacramento Metro area. In Sacramento Metro, one in four say that the light rail system is the top priority, compared to only 7 percent of South San Joaquin residents. Twenty-two percent of Latinos and only 8 percent of whites in the Central Valley say public bus systems should be the top priority for public transportation funding. “Which of the following types of surface transportation projects do you think should have top priority for public funding in the Central Valley?” Local streets and roads Freeways and highways Light rail system Public bus system High-speed rail Carpool lanes Something else Don’t know All Adults 25% 23 15 12 12 6 2 5 North Valley 35% 19 12 13 10 4 4 3 Subregion Sacramento North San Metro Joaquin 18% 23% 27 24 25 13 9 14 12 11 47 11 47 South San Joaquin 30% 20 7 16 13 6 1 7 Latinos 27% 16 7 22 9 8 1 10 Public support for increasing the local transportation sales tax is near the two-thirds supermajority needed for passage: Sixty-four percent of residents, and 65 percent of likely voters, would vote yes if there were a county measure to increase their local sales tax by ½ cent for local transportation projects. A $9.95 billion state bond measure to pay for the planning and construction of high-speed rail from Los Angeles to San Francisco through the Central Valley also receives majority support at this time: Fifty-five percent of residents, and 51 percent of likely voters, would vote yes if this measure were to appear on the state ballot. “What if there was a measure on your county ballot to increase the local sales tax for local transportation projects by one-half cent? Would you vote yes or no?” Yes No Don’t know All Adults 64% 32 4 North Valley 66% 32 2 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 63% 70% 32 26 54 South San Joaquin 59% 35 6 Latinos 65% 29 6 - 9 - April 2004 Governance and Policy Preferences Water Supply Central Valley residents are evenly divided in their opinions about the adequacy of their water supply through the next 10 years: Forty-six percent think that the water supply in their part of the Central Valley will be adequate, while 44 percent think that it will be somewhat (25%) or very (19%) inadequate in meeting their needs. North Valley residents express the most confidence that the water supply in their part of the valley will be adequate (57%), while under half of all residents in other parts of the Central Valley say the supply will be sufficient. One in five Sacramento Metro and South San Joaquin residents say the water supply will be very inadequate. Latinos are somewhat more likely than whites to say that there will be enough water (53% to 44%). Length of residence in the Central Valley also influences perceptions of the future water supply: Fifty percent of residents who have lived in the Central Valley for 20 years or more think that the water supply will be inadequate, compared to only 35 percent of those who have lived in the Central Valley for fewer than five years. “Do you think that the water supply available in your part of the Central Valley today will be adequate or inadequate to meet needs through the next 10 years?” (if yes: “Is that somewhat or very inadequate?”) Adequate Somewhat inadequate Very inadequate Don’t know All Adults 46% 25 19 10 North Valley 57% 19 12 12 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 43% 45% 27 29 21 17 99 South San Joaquin 47% 23 20 10 Latinos 53% 23 10 14 Many Central Valley residents are not that concerned about the quality of their water supply today: Forty-five percent say that water quality is not a problem in their part of the valley, 34 percent see it as somewhat of a problem, and only 19 percent consider it a big problem. The public is divided when asked about the most important priority for water policy in planning for the Central Valley’s future. While about four in 10 residents say that farms and agriculture should be the top priority, more than half say that homes and residents (30%) and protecting the environment (21%) should be more important issues when it comes to water policy. This preference ordering is evident across all subregions. Latinos favor homes and residents over farms and agriculture (37% to 22%), while whites favor farms and agriculture over homes and residents (47% to 25%). Prioritizing the environment is more common among Democrats (21%) and independents (28%) than among Republicans (11%). “Which of the following should be the most important priority for water policy in making plans for the future?” Farms and agriculture Homes and residents Protecting the environment Other answer Don’t know All Adults 38% 30 21 5 6 North Valley 40% 29 24 5 2 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 39% 30 39% 33 20 16 55 67 South San Joaquin 37% 28 23 4 8 Latinos 22% 37 31 2 8 - 10 - Governance and Policy Preferences Air Quality Regulations As noted in the previous chapter, air pollution tops the list of concerns of Central Valley residents. When asked which level of government should have primary responsibility for setting air quality standards in their part of the Central Valley, preferences are decidedly mixed: Twenty-nine percent of residents say the state government, 26 percent say the regional air resources board, 22 percent say local government, and 12 percent say the federal government. North Valley residents are more likely to favor giving the authority to local government (29%) or a regional board (30%), while Sacramento Metro residents lean toward the state government or a regional board (both 32%). In South San Joaquin—where residents are most likely to say that air pollution is a big problem—state government is favored over other levels of government when it comes to setting air quality standards. Whites are more likely than Latinos to say that state government (31% to 24%) and the regional air resources board (30% to 18%) should have primary responsibility for air quality standards. There are no significant differences across party or ideology. “Which level of government do you think should have the primary responsibility for setting air quality standards in your part of the Central Valley? Should it be...” State government Regional air resources board Local government Federal government Other answer Don’t know All Adults 29% 26 22 12 2 9 North Valley 23% 30 29 11 2 5 Subregion Sacramento North San Metro Joaquin 32% 24% 32 25 18 25 9 13 22 7 11 South San Joaquin 30% 20 22 14 3 11 Latinos 24% 18 23 17 0 18 Two in three Central Valley residents would be willing to see the federal government set tougher standards on air pollution. Forty-four percent of residents would support these regulations even if the regulations hurt the economy in their part of the Central Valley, while 24 percent would support new regulations only if they did not harm the economy. One in four residents does not favor any increase in air pollution regulation. Public support for tougher air pollution standards is evident across subregions. With respect to race/ethnicity, 81 percent of Latinos would be willing to see tougher air pollution standards compared to 63 percent of whites; Latinos and whites (both 44%) are equally likely to support new regulations, even if the regulations hurt local economies. Most Democrats (54%) and independents (53%) favor tougher standards, even if they might prove detrimental to the economy, while a plurality of Republicans (43%) do not want any more federal regulations on air pollution. “Would you be willing to see the federal government set tougher standards on air pollution?” (if yes: “Even if these regulations hurt the economy in your part of the Central Valley?”) All Adults Yes, even if regulations hurt economy Yes, but not if regulations hurt economy No Don’t know 44% 24 26 6 North Valley 47% 19 29 5 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 44% 41% 21 27 28 25 77 South San Joaquin 45% 26 24 5 Latinos 44% 37 12 7 - 11 - April 2004 Governance and Policy Preferences Planning for Future Growth Central Valley residents are more inclined to say that local authorities should handle growth and development policy in their part of the Central Valley. Fifty-nine percent say that either county or city government (37% and 22%, respectively) should bear most responsibility for growth and development policy (28 percent think the state government should be the most responsible policymaker, and 7 percent think it should be the federal government). Across each of the Central Valley’s subregions, most name local governments, with pluralities choosing county government as the most responsible party for growth policy. A somewhat higher percentage of Democrats than Republicans say state government should bear most responsibility in this policy area (31% to 25%), while a slightly higher percentage of Republicans than Democrats say county government should be most responsible (45% to 39%). Whites are more likely than Latinos to name county government as the responsible entity (42% to 27%). Residents who have lived at their current residence five years or more are more likely than those who have lived fewer years at their current residence to say that county government should be most responsible (40% to 33%). “Which level of government do you think should be most responsible for growth and development policy in your part of the Central Valley?” County government State government City government Federal government Other answer Don’t know All Adults 37% 28 22 7 1 5 North Valley 42% 24 27 4 0 3 Subregion Sacramento North San Metro Joaquin 38% 33% 30 24 19 30 56 21 66 South San Joaquin 36% 29 19 9 1 6 Latinos 27% 28 21 11 0 13 While a majority of residents favor local control of growth policies, most also prefer regional cooperation among local governments. Seven in ten residents think city and county government should get together and agree on land use and growth policy, while only one in four residents say that each city and county government should decide land use and growth policy on its own. Majorities in all subregions think local governments should work together, although North Valley residents are the most likely to say that each city and county government should determine growth policies on its own (30%). Across political and demographic groups, most residents agree that local governments should work together. “Which of the following statements is closer to your own view…” City and county government should get together and agree on land use and growth policy Each city and county government should decide land use and growth policy on its own Don’t know All Adults 69% 25 6 North Valley 65% Subregion Sacramento North San Metro Joaquin South San Joaquin Latinos 70% 71% 68% 66% 30 25 24 25 23 5 5 5 7 11 - 12 - Economic, Social, and Political Trends Economic Outlook Residents’ outlook on the Central Valley economy is somewhat gloomy: Only 38 percent rate the region’s economic health as excellent or good. This is similar to the relatively pessimistic economic outlook we witnessed one year ago and is below residents’ more positive ratings in 1999, 2001, and 2002. At the same time, ratings appear to be rebounding in the Sacramento Metro area—where 45 percent of residents now see the economy as excellent or good, up from 39 percent in 2003—and in South San Joaquin—where positive ratings have risen slightly from 33 percent in 2003 to 37 percent today. Economic assessments remain lower in the North Valley (29%) and North San Joaquin (30%). Latinos are considerably more negative in their economic outlook than whites (27% to 43%). Positive ratings of the Central Valley economy increase with age, education, income, and homeownership. Among residents with annual household incomes of $80,000 or more, 53 percent give the economy positive ratings. “How would you rate the economy in the Central Valley” Excellent / Good Fair Poor Don't know 1999 55% 35 9 1 2001 49% 37 13 1 2002 45% 41 12 2 2003 35% 49 15 1 2004 38% 44 15 3 Nearly three in 10 residents (29%) believe that their part of the Central Valley is in a serious or moderate recession today. This is virtually the same as in 2003, when 30 percent said that their area of the Central Valley was in a serious or moderate recession. However, 54 percent today say that their local area is not in recession, up slightly from the 49 percent who offered this assessment in 2003. The outlook is brightest in the Sacramento Metro area, where 59 percent think that there is no recession, compared to 49 percent in the North Valley, 51 percent in North San Joaquin, and 51 percent in South San Joaquin. About half of Latinos (53%) see their area as being in at least a mild recession compared to 33 percent of whites. Positive views of the local economy increase with income, education, and homeownership. “Thinking only about your part of the Central Valley, would you say that it is in an economic recession or not?” (if yes: “Do you think it is in a serious, a moderate, or a mild recession?”) Yes, serious recession Yes, moderate recession Yes, mild recession No, not in recession Don’t know All Adults 8% 21 10 54 7 North Valley 9% 19 12 49 11 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 6% 8% 18 22 10 9 59 51 7 10 South San Joaquin 9% 22 10 51 8 Latinos 9% 31 13 36 11 - 13 - Economic, Social, and Political Trends Personal Finances More than one in three Central Valley residents (37%) say they are better off financially today than they were a year ago, 14 percent say they are worse off, and nearly half (48%) say they are about the same. This is similar to April 2002, when 34 percent said they were better off than the previous year. Confidence is highest in South San Joaquin, where 42 percent feel they are better off today, compared to about one in three residents in the other subregions. Forty percent of Latinos and 36 percent of whites say they are financially better off today than they were a year ago. “As far as your own situation, would you say that you and your family are financially better off, worse off, or just about the same as you were a year ago?” Better off Worse off About the same Don’t know All Adults 37% 14 48 1 North Valley 33% 14 53 0 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 35% 15 34% 15 49 50 11 South San Joaquin 42% 13 44 1 Latinos 40% 12 47 1 Many Central Valley residents continue to be concerned about employment loss in their immediate family: Twenty-eight percent say they are very or somewhat worried that they or someone in their family will lose their job in the next year. In 2002, 22 percent expressed similar concerns about layoffs. Today, Latinos (42%) are twice as likely as whites (21%) to worry about job loss. Residents making under $40,000 (35%), those with high school or less education (33%), and non-citizens (58%) are more worried about unemployment than others. Fears about job loss are similar across all of the Central Valley’s subregions. “Are you concerned that you or someone in your family will lose their job in the next year, or not?” (if yes: “Are you very concerned or somewhat concerned?”) Yes, very concerned Yes, somewhat concerned No, not concerned Don’t know All Adults 14% 14 70 2 North Valley 16% 14 68 2 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 12% 15 71 2 15% 14 68 3 South San Joaquin 14% 13 71 2 Latinos 21% 21 55 3 Nonetheless, about half of Central Valley residents (47%) believe that they will be in better financial shape a year from now than they are today. In 2002, 41 percent felt that they would be better off in the following year. Today, only 7 percent think they will be financially worse off next year, and 41 percent say they will be about the same. Residents in the North Valley (35%) are less inclined to think they will be better off next year than those in the Sacramento Metro area (47%), North San Joaquin (48%), and South San Joaquin (50%). Financial optimism is at its highest point among 18 to 34 year olds (59%), households with annual incomes of $80,000 or more (58%), families with children at home (57%), Latinos (54%), and renters (54%). - 14 - Economic, Social, and Political Trends Computers and the Internet Computer use has risen in the past five years, with 56 percent of Central Valley residents today saying they frequently use a computer, up 7 points since 1999. Today, the 73 percent of Central Valley residents who at least occasionally use a computer is in line with the national average (75%: Pew Research Center, March 2004), and somewhat below the state average (78%: PPIC Statewide Survey, January 2002). Computer use is highest among Sacramento Metro residents, where 67 percent say they use a computer frequently at home, work, or school, and lowest in the South San Joaquin area, where fewer than half of residents (47%) frequently use a computer. Six in 10 North Valley residents (58%) and 52 percent in the North San Joaquin area use computers often. The digital divide between Central Valley Latinos and whites appears to be widening. Similar to 1999, 51 percent of Latinos report using a computer at least occasionally, but only 31 percent use one frequently. Meanwhile, among whites, frequent computer use has grown from 53 percent to 65 percent in the past five years, increasing the gap between Latinos and whites on frequent usage from 19 points in 1999 to 34 points today. Internet use in the Central Valley has risen by 13 points, with half of residents now going on line frequently, up from 37 percent five years ago. Central Valley residents are now as likely to use the Internet (66%) as Americans nationally (68%: Pew Research Center, March 2004), although they remain somewhat less likely than all Californians to access the Internet at least sometimes (72%: PPIC Statewide Survey, January 2002). Across the Central Valley, Internet use is highest in the Sacramento Metro area, where 62 percent go on line frequently, and lowest in South San Joaquin (40%). Four in 10 Latinos use the Internet, including 25 percent who use it frequently—a slight increase from 21 percent in 1999. However, there has been a widening gap between Latinos and whites in frequent use of the Internet: In 1999, the digital divide on Internet usage was 19 points (21% to 40%); today its stands at 34 points (25% to 59%). Nearly two in three Central Valley homes have a computer (62%), a significant increase from the 55 percent of homes owning a computer in 1999. In nearly half of Central Valley homes, the personal computer is used often (45%), an increase of 10 points in five years. Seven in 10 Sacramento Metro homes (72%) own computers, compared to 64 percent in the North Valley, 58 percent in the North San Joaquin Valley, and 54 percent in South San Joaquin. Computer ownership among Latinos is virtually the same today (34%) as it was in 1999 (35%). Do you yourself ever use a computer at home, at work, or at school? (if yes: Do you use a computer often or only sometimes?) Do you ever go on line to access the Internet or worldwide web or send or receive email? (if yes: Do you do this often or only sometimes?) Do you have any type of personal computer, including laptops, in your home? This does not include game machines. (if yes: Do you use your home computer often, only sometimes, or never?) Yes, often Yes, sometimes No Yes, often Yes, sometimes No / Don’t use computers Yes, often Yes, sometimes No computer 1999 49% 21 30 37% 17 46 35% 20 45 2004 56% 17 27 50% 16 34 45% 17 38 - 15 - April 2004 Economic, Social, and Political Trends Religious Beliefs and Values Comparing the current survey to the February 2004 PPIC Statewide Survey, we find that Central Valley residents are more likely than Californians as a whole to say that religion is “very important” in their own lives (53% to 45%). Nearly half of Central Valley residents (44%) attended a religious service in the past week, similar to 43 percent nationwide (Gallup Poll, November 2003). Most Central Valley residents (57%) also say that they are very or somewhat involved with religious activities. Three in four Central Valley residents describe themselves as Christians, including 42 percent who consider themselves Protestant and 32 percent who consider themselves Roman Catholic. Eight percent prefer another religion, and 14 percent do not adhere to any religious denomination. Nearly four in 10 Central Valley Christians (37%) consider themselves “born-again” or evangelical Christians. By comparison, Californians as a whole are more likely to say they have no religion (19%), and statewide Christians are somewhat less likely to consider themselves “born-again” or evangelical Christians (31%). There are strong variations across the Central Valley. For instance, church attendance is higher in North San Joaquin (48%) and South San Joaquin (50%) than in the North Valley (32%) and Sacramento Metro area (38%). Similarly, six in 10 in the San Joaquin valleys are at least somewhat involved in religious activities, compared to about half in the North Valley and Sacramento Metro area. There are also significant differences between Latinos and whites. Latinos are more regularly involved with religion, with 56 percent saying they attended a religious service in the past week, compared to 38 percent of whites. Sixty-three percent of Latinos say they are involved with religious organizations or activities, compared to 54 percent of whites. Sixty-two percent of Latinos say that religion is very important in their lives, compared to 48 percent of whites. Religious affiliation also varies significantly across these two groups: Seventy-three percent of Latinos are Roman Catholic, while 51 percent of whites are Protestant. Personal involvement in religious activities is higher among Republicans (65%) than Democrats (54%). Similarly, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to attend religious services (50% to 39%) and to say that religion is very important in their lives (60% to 49%). Nearly half of Republican Christians (47%) say they are born-again, compared to 33 percent of Democratic Christians. “Did you yourself happen to attend church or synagogue or a place of religious worship in the last seven days, or not?” All Adults North Valley Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin South San Joaquin Latinos Yes 44% 32% 38% 48% 50% 56% No 56 68 62 52 50 44 “How involved are you in religious or spiritual activities, including time spent with religious organizations?” Very involved Somewhat involved Not involved Don’t know All Adults 21% 36 42 1 North Valley 17% 33 50 0 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 19% 22% 32 40 49 37 01 South San Joaquin 24% 39 37 0 Latinos 17% 46 36 1 - 16 - Economic, Social, and Political Trends Political Interests and Involvement Central Valley residents report a high level of interest in government and public affairs, with 77 percent saying they follow what’s going on most (45%) or some (32%) of the time. In our 1999 survey, a similar 78 percent said they followed government and public affairs most (43%) or some (35%) of the time. Sixty-six percent of residents say they have a great deal or fair amount of interest in politics, comparable to the 68 percent of Californians who gave this response in our February 2004 PPIC Statewide Survey. Political interest is somewhat higher in the North Valley and Sacramento Metro area than in the San Joaquin Valley subregions. However, proximity to the state capitol does not appear to make a difference in terms of having a great deal or fair amount of interest in politics: Sacramento Metro residents (69%) have a somewhat similar level of interest as those in the North San Joaquin (64%) and South San Joaquin (62%) subregions and are actually less interested in politics than those living in the North Valley (76%). Latinos express considerably less interest in politics, with only 46 percent saying they have a great deal or fair amount of interest in politics, compared to 75 percent of whites. Also, 60 percent of Latinos say they follow what’s going on in government and public affairs most or some of the time, compared to 85 percent of whites. Moreover, following statewide trends, only 48 percent of Latinos report that they are registered to vote, compared to 86 percent of whites. Central Valley Republicans are more likely than Democrats to have a great deal or a fair amount of interest in politics (83% to 75%) and to follow government and public affairs most of the time (61% to 51%). Political interest is also higher among older, more educated, and more affluent residents. “Would you say you follow what's going on in government and public affairs most of the time, some of the time, only now and then, hardly ever, or never?” Most of the time Some of the time Only now and then Hardly ever Never Don’t know All Adults 45% 32 14 5 2 2 North Valley 51% 34 7 5 2 1 Subregion Sacramento North San Metro Joaquin 49% 42% 32 32 12 19 55 12 10 South San Joaquin 43% 33 15 5 4 0 Latinos 25% 35 29 6 5 0 “Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics?” Great deal Fair amount Only a little None Don’t know All Adults 23% 43 24 9 1 North Valley 28% 48 14 8 2 Subregion Sacramento North San Metro Joaquin 24% 22% 45 42 23 27 78 11 South San Joaquin Latinos 21% 14% 41 32 26 36 11 17 11 - 17 - April 2004 Economic, Social, and Political Trends Political Beliefs and Values The political profile of Central Valley residents is holding steady over time, with three in 10 residents calling themselves politically liberal (29%) or moderate (29%) and four in 10 (42%) describing themselves as conservative. This profile has remained about the same since our first Central Valley survey in 1999. Compared to the state as a whole, Central Valley residents lean slightly more to the conservative side of the political spectrum: Statewide, 35 percent of Californians describe themselves as politically conservative and 34 percent say they are liberal (PPIC Statewide Survey, February 2004). Across subregions, residents are as likely to be liberal as conservative in the North Valley (36% each) and Sacramento Metro area (32% to 38%), whereas they are much more likely to be conservative than liberal in the subregions of North San Joaquin (41% to 27%) and South San Joaquin (49% to 24%). Forty-two percent of Central Valley Democrats describe themselves as liberal, and 69 percent of Republicans describe themselves as conservative. Overall, there are only marginal differences in how Latinos and whites describe their political orientations. Asked their preference for the size of government, residents chose a larger government with more services by a narrow 6-point margin (48% to 43%). Bigger government is more popular among Latinos than among whites (77% to 34%), and favored by more Democrats than Republicans (55% to 21%). Across the subregions, smaller government is the favorite in the north, and bigger government is preferred in the south. “Would you consider yourself to be politically…” Liberal Moderate Conservative 1999 26% 31 43 2002 25% 32 43 2003 25% 31 44 2004 29% 29 42 Liberal Moderate Conservative All Adults 29% 29 42 North Valley 36% 28 36 Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 32% 27% 30 32 38 41 South San Joaquin 24% 27 49 Party Registration Dem 42% 36 22 Rep 10% 21 69 “If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller government with fewer services or a bigger government providing more services?” Smaller government, fewer services Bigger government, more services Don’t know All Adults 43% 48 9 North Valley 55% Subregion Sacramento Metro North San Joaquin 48% 38% 38 43 79 53 9 South San Joaquin 38% Party Registration Dem Rep 32% 71% 52 55 21 10 13 8 - 18 - Survey Methodology The Central Valley Survey is a special edition of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which is directed by Mark Baldassare, research director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance in research and writing from Jon Cohen, survey research manager, and Eliana Kaimowitz and Renatta DeFever, survey research associates. This project was conducted in collaboration with the Great Valley Center. The survey benefited from consultation with Carol Whiteside and Richard Cummings at the Great Valley Center, as well as conversations with other experts in the Central Valley region; however, Mark Baldassare made all final decisions about survey methodology, questions, and the content of this report. The findings of the survey are based on telephone interviews from April 12 to April 20, 2004, with 2,005 adult residents in the 19-county Central Valley region. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers, ensuring that both listed and unlisted telephone numbers were called. All telephone exchanges in the Central Valley were eligible for calling. Telephone numbers in the survey sample were called up to six times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Each interview took an average of 19 minutes to complete and was conducted in English or Spanish, as needed. We used recent U.S. Census and state figures to compare the demographic characteristics of the survey sample with characteristics of the Central Valley’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to U.S. Census and state figures. The survey data in this report were statistically weighted by age, gender, and region to account for any demographic differences. The sampling error for the total sample of 2,005 adults is +/- 2 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 2 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in the Central Valley were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger. Sampling error is just one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. Throughout this report, we refer to four geographic subregions in the Central Valley. “North Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, Glenn, Shasta, and Tehama Counties. “Sacramento Metro” includes El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “North San Joaquin” includes Merced, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus Counties. “South San Joaquin” includes Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, and Tulare Counties. Please note that these subregional definitions changed in 2003; in prior years, Sutter and Yuba were considered part of the North Valley, and El Dorado County was not designated as part of the Central Valley. In this report, all reported changes over time within subregions take account of the updated county classification. We frequently compare the results for Latinos with those for non-Hispanic whites. Latinos account for about 26 percent of the Central Valley’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest growing groups in this region. The Asian and black samples are not large enough for separate statistical analysis. In some cases, the current Central Valley Survey uses questions from the 1999, 2001, 2002, and 2003 PPIC Central Valley surveys or compares results to these surveys in order to highlight trends over time, and we use the 1998-2004 PPIC Statewide Surveys to compare opinions of Central Valley residents today with those of adult residents in the state as a whole and residents of the state’s other major regions. We also compare opinions in the Central Valley to those reported in national surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center and the Gallup Poll. - 19 - PPIC STATEWIDE: SPECIAL SURVEY ON THE CENTRAL VALLEY APRIL 12—APRIL 20, 2004 2,005 CALIFORNIA ADULT RESIDENTS; ENGLISH AND SPANISH MARGIN OF ERROR +/- 2% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE 1. Which of the following best describes the city or community where you live—is it a large city, a suburb of a large city, a small city or town, or a rural area? (if large city: Do you live in the central part of the city?) (if suburb: Would that be an older or newer suburb?) 11% large city, central part 10 large city, other part 8 suburb, older 5 suburb, newer 35 small city 16 town 14 rural area 1 don’t know 2. Overall, how would you rate your city or community as a place to live? Would you say it is excellent, good, fair, or poor? 31% excellent 44 good 19 fair 5 poor 1 don’t know 3. In the past five years, do you think the population of your city or community has been growing rapidly, growing slowly, staying about the same, or declining? 71% growing rapidly 16 growing slowly 8 staying about the same 1 declining 4 don’t know 4. Overall, in the past five years, would you say the quality of life in your city or community has gotten better or gotten worse or has it stayed about the same? 31% better 17 worse 48 same 4 don’t know 5. Next, we are interested in your opinions about the broader geographic area you live in—the Central Valley—which is the inland area of California stretching from Bakersfield to Redding. What do you think is the most important issue facing the Central Valley today? [Open-ended question] 19% air pollution, pollution in general 12 jobs, unemployment, economy 12 population growth and development 8 water availability and quality 8 crime, gangs 6 traffic, transportation 3 education, schools 3 housing costs and availability 2 drugs 12 other 15 don’t know 6. Do you think that things in the Central Valley are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 53% right direction 32 wrong direction 15 don’t know 7. In general, how would you rate the economy in the Central Valley? Would you say it is excellent, good, fair, or poor? 4% excellent 34 good 44 fair 15 poor 3 don’t know 8. Thinking about only your part of the Central Valley, would you say that it is in an economic recession or not? (if yes: Do you think it is in a serious, a moderate, or a mild recession?) 8% yes, serious recession 21 yes, moderate recession 10 yes, mild recession 54 no 7 don’t know - 21 - 9. In the future, do you think that the Central Valley will be a better place to live than it is now, or a worse place to live than it is now, or that there will be no change? 42% better place 27 worse place 24 no change 7 don’t know I’d like to ask how you would rate some of the public services in your local area. For each one, please tell me if you think it is excellent, good, fair, or poor. [rotate questions 10 to 13] 10. How about local parks and other public recreational facilities? 18% excellent 49 good 23 fair 8 poor 2 don’t know 11. How about local streets and roads? 7% excellent 37 good 35 fair 19 poor 2 don’t know 12. How about local police protection? 17% excellent 50 good 21 fair 9 poor 3 don’t know 13. How about local public schools? 14% excellent 40 good 26 fair 11 poor 9 don’t know [rotate questions 14 and 15] 14. Overall, how would you rate the performance of your city government in solving problems in your local area—excellent, good, fair, or poor? 5% excellent 35 good 39 fair 14 poor 2 not a city (volunteered) 5 don’t know 15. Overall, how would you rate the performance of county government in solving problems in your county—excellent, good, fair, or poor? 3% excellent 33 good 42 fair 15 poor 7 don’t know I am now going to read you a list of problems other people have told us about. For each one, please tell me if you think this is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem in your part of the Central Valley. [rotate questions 16 to 19] 16. How about traffic congestion on freeways and major roads? 44% big problem 33 somewhat of a problem 22 not a problem 1 don’t know 17. How about the loss of farms and agricultural lands? 38% big problem 30 somewhat of a problem 27 not a problem 5 don’t know 18. How about air pollution? 45% big problem 31 somewhat of a problem 23 not a problem 1 don’t know 19. How about population growth and development? 32% big problem 32 somewhat of a problem 35 not a problem 1 don’t know For each of the following, please tell me if you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, or not satisfied. [rotate questions 20 to 23] 20. How do you feel about the job opportunities that are available in your part of the Central Valley—are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, or not satisfied? 13% very satisfied 44 somewhat satisfied 37 not satisfied 6 don’t know - 22 - 21. How do you feel about the availability of housing that you can afford in your part of the Central Valley—are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, or not satisfied? 19% very satisfied 37 somewhat satisfied 41 not satisfied 3 don’t know 22. How do you feel about the availability of public colleges and universities in your part of the Central Valley—are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, or not satisfied? 37% very satisfied 43 somewhat satisfied 15 not satisfied 5 don’t know 23. How do you feel about the availability of outdoor leisure activities in your part of the Central Valley— are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, or not satisfied? 39% very satisfied 42 somewhat satisfied 16 not satisfied 3 don’t know 24. And which of these two views is closest to your own— [rotate] Immigrants today are a benefit to your part of the Central Valley because of their hard work and job skills, or immigrants today are a burden to your part of the Central Valley because they use public services. 60% benefit 28 burden 12 don’t know 25. And how much of a problem is illegal immigration into your part of the Central Valley—is it a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem? 25% big problem 31 somewhat of a problem 38 not a problem 6 don’t know 26. On another topic, how serious a health threat is air pollution in your part of the Central Valley to you and your immediate family—do you think that it is a very serious, somewhat serious, or not too serious health threat? 29% very serious 37 somewhat serious 32 not too serious 2 don’t know 27. Which level of government do you think should have the primary responsibility for setting air quality standards in your part of the Central Valley? Should it be … [read rotated list] 29% the state government 26 a regional air resources board 22 the local government 12 the federal government 2 other answer (specify) 9 don’t know 28. Would you be willing to see the federal government set tougher standards on air pollution? (if yes: Would this be true even if these regulations hurt the economy in your part of the Central Valley?) 44% yes, even if regulations hurt the economy 24 yes, but not if regulations hurt the economy 26 no 6 don’t know 29a. [half sample] On another topic, do you think that the water supply available in your part of the Central Valley today will be adequate or inadequate to meet needs through the next 10 years? (if inadequate: Is that somewhat inadequate or very inadequate?) 46% adequate 25 somewhat inadequate 19 very inadequate 10 don’t know 29b. [half sample] On another topic, do you think that the quality of the water supply in your part of the Central Valley today is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem? 19% big problem 34 somewhat of a problem 45 not a problem 2 don’t know 30a. [half sample] There is a limited amount of water supply available in the Central Valley. Which of the following do you think should be the most important priority for water policy in making plans for the valley’s future: [rotate] providing water for farms and agricultural uses, providing water for homes and residents, or protecting the environment? 38% farms and agriculture 30 homes and residents 21 protecting the environment 5 other (specify) 6 don’t know - 23 - April 2004 30b. [half sample] What do you think about farmers selling water they now receive for agricultural uses in order to provide the water for new housing and residents? Is this a good idea or a bad idea? 26% good idea 59 bad idea 15 don’t know 31. Next, you may know that the term “infrastructure” refers to a variety of public works projects. Which infrastructure projects do you think should have top priority for public funding in the Central Valley? [read rotated list, then ask “or something else?”] 49% school facilities 18 surface transportation 16 water systems 5 sewer systems 2 airports 3 something else (specify) 7 don’t know 32a. [half sample] A new university campus is being built in the Central Valley. How important is the University of California at Merced to the future economy and quality of life in the Central Valley—is it very important, somewhat important, or not important? 46% very important 35 somewhat important 14 not important 5 don’t know 32b. [half sample] What if there was a measure on your local ballot to increase property taxes in order to provide more funds for the local schools? Would you vote yes or no? 56% yes 40 no 4 don’t know 33. Which of the following types of surface transportation projects do you think should have top priority for public funding in the Central Valley? [read rotated list, then ask “or something else?”] 25% local streets and roads 23 freeways and highways 15 light rail system 12 public bus system 12 high-speed rail 6 carpool lanes 2 something else (specify) 5 don’t know 34a. [half sample] The November 2004 state ballot may include a 9.95 billion dollar bond measure that would fund the planning and construction of a high-speed train in California, linking Los Angeles to San Francisco via the Central Valley. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no? 55% yes 38 no 7 don’t know 34b. [half sample] What if there was a measure on your county ballot to increase the local sales tax for local transportation projects by one-half cent? Would you vote yes or no? 64% yes 32 no 4 don’t know 35. On another topic, which level of government do you think should be most responsible for growth and development policy in your part of the Central Valley? [read rotated list] 37% county government 28 state government 22 city government 7 federal government 1 other (specify) 5 don’t know 36. Which of the following statements is closer to your view: [rotate] City and county governments in your region should get together and agree on land use and growth policy, or each city and county government in your region should decide land use and growth policy on its own. 69% local governments should get together 25 local governments decide on their own 6 don’t know 37a. [half sample] Overall, when thinking about candidates for local offices, what are you most interested in learning about the candidates—is it their … [read rotated list] 40% stand on the issues 19 experience 17 character 11 intelligence 5 party platform 4 something else (volunteered) 4 don’t know - 24 - 37b.[half sample] Changing subjects, how important do you think it is to have a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization with the purpose of bringing together city and county governments, businesses, and citizens’ groups to work together on issues facing the Central Valley—is it very important, somewhat important, or not important? 55% very important 32 somewhat important 10 not important 3 don’t know [rotate questions 38 and 39] 38. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California? 62% approve 25 disapprove 13 don’t know 39. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president of the United States? 52% approve 41 disapprove 7 don’t know 40. Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics—a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 23% great deal 43 fair amount 24 only a little 9 none 1 don’t know 41. Would you say you follow what’s going on in government and public affairs most of the time, some of the time, only now and then, hardly ever, or never? 45% most of the time 32 some of the time 14 only now and then 5 hardly ever 2 never 2 don’t know 42. Some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote? 74% yes [ask q43] 26 no [skip to q44a] 43. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or as an independent? 40% Democrat [ask q44b] 42 Republican [ask q44c] 4 another party [specify] [skip to q45] 14 independent [ask q44a] 44a.Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party? 25% Republican party 37 Democratic party 25 neither (volunteered) 13 don’t know [skip to q45] 44b.Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 48% strong 49 not very strong 3 don’t know [skip to q45] 44c.Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 62% strong 36 not very strong 2 don’t know [ask q45] 45. If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller government with fewer services or a bigger government providing more services? 43% smaller government, fewer services 48 bigger government, more services 9 don’t know 46. How often would you say you vote—always, nearly always, part of the time, seldom, or never? 47% always 20 nearly always 9 part of the time 4 seldom 19 never 1 don’t know 47. On another topic, would you consider yourself to be politically ... (“don’t knows” coded as missing) 9% very liberal 20 somewhat liberal 29 middle-of-the-road 27 somewhat conservative 15 very conservative - 25 - April 2004 48. Do you yourself ever use a computer at home, at work, or at school? (if yes: Do you use a computer often or only sometimes?) 56% yes, often [ask q49] 17 yes, sometimes [ask q49] 27 no [skip to q50] 49. Do you ever go on line to access the Internet or worldwide web or send or receive email? (if yes: Do you do this often or only sometimes?) 50% yes, often 16 yes, sometimes 34 no 50. Do you have any type of personal computer, including laptops, in your home? These do not include game machines. (if yes: Do you use your home computer often, only sometimes, or never?) 45% yes, often 17 yes, sometimes 38 no computer/ never use 51. On another topic, as far as your own situation, would you say that you and your family are financially better off, worse off, or just about the same as you were a year ago? 37% better off 14 worse off 48 about the same 1 don’t know 52. Do you think that a year from now you and your family will be financially better off or worse off or just about the same as now? 47% better off 7 worse off 41 about the same 5 don’t know 53. And are you concerned that you or someone in your family will lose their job in the next year, or not? (if yes: Are you very concerned or somewhat concerned?) 14% yes, very concerned 14 yes, somewhat concerned 70 no, not concerned 2 don’t know 54. On another topic, how involved are you in religious or spiritual activities—including time spent with religious organizations—are you very involved, somewhat involved, or not involved? 21% very involved 36 somewhat involved 42 not involved 1 don’t know 55. And what is your religious preference—Protestant, Roman Catholic, Jewish, Muslim, Mormon, or an orthodox church such as the Greek or Russian Orthodox Church? 42% Protestant [include Baptist, Lutheran, Methodist, Presbyterian, Episcopalian, Pentecostal, Jehovah's Witness, Church of Christ, etc.] 32 Roman Catholic 1 Jewish [skip to q56] 2 Mormon [include Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints] 1 Orthodox Church [Greek or Russian] 8 other religion (specify) 14 no religion, not a believer, atheist, agnostic (volunteered) [skip to q56] 55a.Would you describe yourself as a "born again" or evangelical Christian, or not? 37% yes, would 58 no, would not 5 don’t know 56. How important would you say religion is in your own life? Would you say it is very important, fairly important, or not important? 53% very important 28 fairly important 18 not important 1 don’t know 57. Did you yourself happen to attend church or synagogue or a place of religious worship in the last seven days, or not? 44% yes 56 no [58-70: demographic questions] - 26 - PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Advisory Committee Mitchel Benson Director of Communications California Treasurer Phil Angelides Angela Blackwell President Policy Link Paul Brest President The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Mollyann Brodie Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley James E. Canales President The James Irvine Foundation Matt Fong Chairman Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation Advisory Committee William Hauck President California Business Roundtable Dennis A. Hunt Vice President Communications and Public Affairs The California Endowment Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Carol S. Larson President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Monica Lozano Publisher and CEO La Opinión Donna Lucas Deputy Chief of Staff Office of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger Max Neiman Professor Political Science Department University of California, Riverside Dan Rosenheim News Director KPIX-TV Carol Stogsdill President Stogsdill Consulting Cathy Taylor Vice President and Editorial Commentary Director Orange County Register Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center - 27- PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA Board of Directors Raymond L. Watson, Chairman Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Edward K. Hamilton Chairman Hamilton, Rabinovitz & Alschuler, Inc. Gary K. Hart Founder Institute for Education Reform California State University, Sacramento Walter B. Hewlett Director Center for Computer Assisted Research in the Humanities David W. Lyon President and CEO Public Policy Institute of California Vilma S. Martinez Partner Munger, Tolles & Olson LLP Cheryl White Mason Chief, Civil Liability Management Los Angeles City Attorney’s Office Arjay Miller Dean Emeritus Graduate School of Business Stanford University Ki Suh Park Design and Managing Partner Gruen Associates Constance L. Rice Co-Director The Advancement Project Thomas C. Sutton Chairman & CEO Pacific Life Insurance Company Cynthia A. Telles Department of Psychiatry UCLA School of Medicine Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center Advisory Council Mary C. Daly Research Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Clifford W. Graves General Manager Department of Community Development City of Los Angeles Elizabeth G. Hill Legislative Analyst State of California Hilary W. Hoynes Associate Professor Department of Economics University of California, Davis Andrés E. Jiménez Director California Policy Research Center University of California Office of the President Norman R. King Executive Director San Bernardino Associated Governments Daniel A. Mazmanian C. Erwin and Ione Piper Dean and Professor School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Dean Misczynski Director California Research Bureau Rudolf Nothenberg Chief Administrative Officer (Retired) City and County of San Francisco Manuel Pastor Professor, Latin American & Latino Studies University of California, Santa Cruz Peter Schrag Contributing Editor The Sacramento Bee James P. Smith Senior Economist RAND Corporation PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 800 San Francisco, California 94111 Phone: (415) 291-4400 Fax: (415) 291-4401 www.ppic.org info@ppic.org" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 09:37:21" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(8) "s_404mbs" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:37:21" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 09:37:21" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["guid"]=> string(50) "http://148.62.4.17/wp-content/uploads/S_404MBS.pdf" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_mime_type"]=> string(15) "application/pdf" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" ["status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["attachment_authors"]=> bool(false) }