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object(Timber\Post)#3742 (44) { ["ImageClass"]=> string(12) "Timber\Image" ["PostClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Post" ["TermClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Term" ["object_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["custom"]=> array(5) { ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(12) "S_805MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(7) "1385420" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(94814) "PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY AUGUST 2005 Public Policy Institute of California Special Survey on Californians and the Initiative Process in collaboration with The James Irvine Foundation ○○○○○ Mark Baldassare Research Director & Survey Director The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) is a private operating foundation established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. The Institute is dedicated to improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. PPIC’s research agenda focuses on three program areas: population, economy, and governance and public finance. Studies within these programs are examining the underlying forces shaping California’s future, cutting across a wide range of public policy concerns, including education, health care, immigration, income distribution, welfare, urban growth, and state and local finance. PPIC was created because three concerned citizens – William R. Hewlett, Roger W. Heyns, and Arjay Miller – recognized the need for linking objective research to the realities of California public policy. Their goal was to help the state’s leaders better understand the intricacies and implications of contemporary issues and make informed public policy decisions when confronted with challenges in the future. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. David W. Lyon is founding President and Chief Executive Officer of PPIC. Thomas C. Sutton is Chair of the Board of Directors. Public Policy Institute of California 500 Washington Street, Suite 800 • San Francisco, California 94111 Telephone: (415) 291-4400 • Fax: (415) 291-4401 info@ppic.org • www.ppic.org Preface The PPIC Statewide Survey series provides policymakers, the media, and the general public with objective, advocacy-free information on the perceptions, opinions, and public policy preferences of California residents. Inaugurated in April 1998, the survey series has generated a database that includes the responses of more than 120,000 Californians. The current survey is the first in a series of three special surveys on Californians and the Initiative Process, supported by funding from The James Irvine Foundation. On November 8th, California voters will have the opportunity to participate in a special election. The state ballot will not include candidates but will present eight citizens’ initiatives on a wide range of topics. The last statewide special election was held in 2003, recalling the governor, and before that, there were three proposition-only special elections in 1973, 1979, and 1993. The three special surveys we are conducting in August, September, and October are designed to provide information on Californians’ attitudes toward the citizens’ initiative process, their reactions to the special election and its state ballot measures, and the role of government distrust in shaping public opinion about the legislative process, the initiative process, and fiscal and governance reforms. This survey series seeks to raise public awareness, inform decisionmakers, and stimulate public discussions about the state’s system of governance, the initiative process, and fiscal and governance reforms. This report presents the responses of 2,004 adult residents throughout the state on a wide range of issues: • The November special election, including interest in the election and specific ballot measures and awareness of election news, voter support and underlying attitudes toward the state ballot measures on parental notification of abortion (Proposition 73), teacher tenure and dismissal (Proposition 74), public employee union dues and political contributions (Proposition 75), state spending and school funding limits (Proposition 76), and reapportionment (Proposition 77). • State issues, including overall approval ratings for Governor Schwarzenegger and approval ratings on his handling of governance reforms and budget issues, overall approval ratings for the legislature and the specific legislators representing the local legislative district, general direction of the state and outlook for the state’s economy, trust in state government officials in Sacramento, and general attitudes toward the citizens’ initiative process in California. • National issues, including overall approval ratings for President Bush and approval ratings for the president on his handling of the situation in Iraq and homeland security; attitudes regarding U.S. military involvement in Iraq and U.S. homeland security; policy preferences on social issues such as abortion restrictions, same-sex marriage, religious displays in public buildings, and a constitutional amendment on flag burning; and opinions about the Supreme Court. • The extent to which Californians – based on their party affiliation, demographics, race/ethnicity, and region of residence – may differ with regard to attitudes toward the initiative process, the November 8th special election and its specific ballot measures, and governance and fiscal reforms. This is the 58th PPIC Statewide Survey, which has included a number of special editions on the Central Valley (11/99, 3/01, 4/02, 4/03, 4/04), Los Angeles County (3/03, 3/04, 3/05), Orange County (9/01, 12/02, 12/03, 12/04), San Diego County (7/02), population growth (5/01), land use (11/01, 11/02), housing (11/04), the environment (6/00, 6/02, 7/03, 11/03, 7/04, 7/05), the state budget (6/03, 1/04, 5/04, 1/05, 5/05), and California’s future (8/04). Copies of this report may be ordered by e-mail (order@ppic.org) or phone (415-291-4400). Copies of this and earlier reports are posted on the publications page of the PPIC web site (www.ppic.org). For questions about the survey, please contact survey@ppic.org. -i- - ii - Contents Preface Press Release Special Election State Issues National Issues Survey Methodology Survey Questions and Results Survey Advisory Committee i v 1 7 13 19 21 26 - iii - Press Release Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: http://www.ppic.org/main/pressreleaseindex.asp SPECIAL SURVEY ON CALIFORNIANS AND THE INITIATIVE PROCESS BAD TIME FOR THE BALLOT BOX: CALIFORNIANS DISAPPROVE OF SPECIAL ELECTION, SCHWARZENEGGER, STATE GOVERNMENT Commitment to Initiative Process Not Enough To Overcome Distaste for November Election SAN FRANCISCO, California, August 25, 2005 — Californians’ steadfast endorsement of the initiative process is not triggering support for this fall’s initiative-focused special election – nor for the man who called it, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Among Californians who are most likely to vote in November, support for the once-popular governor, and the propositions he is backing, ranges from shaky to poor, according to a new survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. A majority of likely voters across age, income, education, racial and ethnic groups, and in every region of the state, oppose holding a special election this fall and would prefer to shelve the ballot measures until the state’s next scheduled election in 2006. Only 36 percent believe it’s better to hold the special election; 60 percent say it’s better to wait. Even among registered Republicans, holding a special election has a bare majority of support (52%) and substantial opposition (41%). Democrats (76%) are overwhelmingly against holding the election, as are a majority of independents (56%). Negative attitudes toward the election seem to extend to measures supported by the governor; and in opposing them, voters are rejecting key components of the overall reform agenda Schwarzenegger has proposed: • Teacher tenure (Proposition 74) – Likely voters are split over whether or not to increase probationary periods for public school teachers (49% support, 42% oppose, 9% undecided) – despite the fact that 75 percent say poor teacher performance is at least somewhat of a problem in the state. • Spending and funding limits (Proposition 76) – The measure to limit state spending and change school funding requirements is behind by a large margin (61% oppose, 28% support, 11% undecided). • Redistricting (Proposition 77) – More voters oppose (49%) rather than support (34%) the proposal to have a panel of retired judges rather than lawmakers draw legislative districts. However, a hefty 17 percent remain undecided. “None of the propositions favored by the governor’s administration are inspiring much passion or enthusiasm among voters,” says PPIC survey director Mark Baldassare. “With little connecting them to this election, support for the entire enterprise is low.” But that doesn’t mean voters are not paying attention: Two-thirds (68%) say they are either very closely or fairly closely following election-related news. Still, this represents a much lower level of interest than voters had in the August 2003 recall election (89%). One telling sign of special election discontent? When asked which ballot issue was most important to them, more likely voters (16%) volunteered the answer “none” than named any one measure. Of the propositions included in this survey, only Proposition 75, which requires employees’ consent to use union dues for political contributions – and is not part of Schwarzenegger’s reform agenda – currently has majority support. Over half (58%) of likely voters favor the measure, with strong support from Republicans (72%) and independents (64%) and measured support from Democrats (46%). -v- Press Release The Irresistible Initiative? Although many would just as soon forgo November’s initiative fest, Californians of all ages, political persuasions, regions of the state, and racial/ethnic groups are still committed to the initiative process. Well over half (57%) say policies made by citizens’ initiatives are better than those made by state lawmakers, while one-quarter (25%) say they are worse. Nevertheless, there are misgivings about how the initiative process actually works. Only one in ten residents say they are very satisfied with the way the initiative process is working in the state, while one in four say they are not satisfied (58% are somewhat satisfied). “Because Californians support the idea of making public policy at the ballot box doesn’t mean they like the way the process is working,” says Baldassare. “Their support for direct democracy needs to be balanced with their concerns in thinking about the future of ballot-box policymaking in the state.” California’s faith in the initiative shouldn’t be too surprising, given residents’ patent distrust of state government: Only 30 percent say they trust the government to do what is right just about always or most of the time – a scant improvement from the historic 27 percent low the PPIC Statewide Survey registered in the week before the 2003 recall election. Feeding the distrust are highly negative impressions about who runs the state – and how. Two-thirds (65%) of Californians believe that Sacramento is run by a few big interests rather than for the benefit of the people. And in another sign of dissatisfaction, more adults (61%) now believe the state government wastes a lot of taxpayer money than at any time since PPIC first asked this question in January 2001. The Higher They Climb… Schwarzenegger’s Dwindling Approval So how is the governor faring, given the sour mood? Heading into an election that bears heavily on the future of his political career, Governor Schwarzenegger’s approval ratings are at a low point. Currently, over half (54%) of Californians disapprove of the way he is handling his job, while only one-third (34%) approve (among likely voters, 50% disapprove, 41% approve). In his effort to reform state government, the governor receives similarly poor reviews – 35 percent approve but 50 percent disapprove of his performance. This is a sharp decline from earlier this year when 58 percent approved and only 30 percent disapproved of his reform efforts (see PPIC Statewide Survey, January 2005). Among residents, Latinos are especially negative in their assessment of the governor’s overall performance (73% disapprove, 17% approve). And overall, nearly six in 10 Californians say the state is generally going in the wrong direction. Bush Report Card: Low Marks for Iraq, High Marks for Supreme Court Nominee The governor is not the only one feeling heat from state residents. President Bush’s job approval ratings remain at the same low level they have been for the past year (58% disapprove, 38% approve). And the war in Iraq is very likely a contributing factor: Only three in 10 Californians approve of the president’s handling of the Iraq situation – a 24-point drop from the 55 percent approval rating he received in the prewar days of September 2002. Californians are generally pessimistic about the war, with a mere 6 percent saying things are going very well, 24 percent saying they are going somewhat well, and 67 percent saying they are not going too well or not going well at all. Moreover, only one-third (33%) of residents believe the war has helped in the fight against terrorism, although they give President Bush mixed ratings in his handling of terrorism and homeland security issues (46% approve, 49% disapprove). In contrast, President Bush’s nomination of Judge John Roberts to the U.S. Supreme Court has generated considerable support in the state. Far more Californians favor (49%) rather than oppose (24%) Judge Roberts’ confirmation – and when asked about his ideology, more residents say his ideas are about right (38%), than those who say they are too conservative (29%), or those who say they are not conservative enough (10%). Indeed, when it comes to the nation’s highest court, across California’s political spectrum, voters who are often at odds show striking agreement in their favorable view (52% of Democrats, and 53% of Republicans and independents approve of the job the Supreme Court is doing). - vi - Press Release On Social Issues Partisanship Persists However, when turning to social issues related to family, religious, patriotic, and moral beliefs, partisan division revives with a vengeance. And the special election is not exempt. Proposition 73, which requires doctors to notify parents when a minor seeks an abortion, is deeply dividing California’s likely voters, with 48 percent opposing and 44 percent supporting the measure. Democrats are responsible for most of the opposition (60% oppose, 34% support), while Republicans account for most of the support (61% support, 31% oppose). Independents are closely split (45% support, 47% oppose). In an exceptional area of agreement on abortion issues, strong majorities of California’s Democrats (81%), independents (75%), and Republicans (60%) oppose overturning Roe versus Wade. On other social issues, voters are also divided along party lines. When it comes to same-sex marriage, independents and Democrats (both 56%) favor the right of same-sex couples to be legally married, compared to just 24 percent of Republicans. And while Republicans strongly favor (61%) a constitutional amendment making it illegal to burn the American flag, neither Democrats (42%) nor independents (44%) give the idea – which has passed the U.S. House of Representatives – majority support. More Key Findings • Where the power really lies… (page 7) Heavy use of the initiative in California hasn’t changed beliefs about who holds the reins of power: More residents think the governor (34%) and the state legislature (35%) have the most influence in making public policy decisions than think initiatives are most influential (19%). • Trust issue worse among voters (page 10) Likely voters in California are even less likely than other adults (24% to 30%) to say they trust state government to do what’s right most of the time or just about always. • Most important issue? (page 12) The economy, jobs, and unemployment top Californian’s list (20%) of the most important problems facing the state today, followed by education and schools (15%) and immigration (9%). About the Survey This survey on the initiative process and special election – made possible by funding from The James Irvine Foundation – is a special edition of the PPIC Statewide Survey. This is the first in a series of three surveys designed to provide information about Californians attitudes toward the state’s initiative process and this November’s special election. Findings of this survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,004 California adult residents interviewed between August 8 and August 15, 2005. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The sampling error for the total sample is +/- 2%. The sampling error for subgroups is larger. For more information on methodology, see page 19. Mark Baldassare is research director at PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has directed since 1998. His recent book, A California State of Mind: The Conflicted Voter in a Changing World, is available at www.ppic.org. PPIC is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to improving public policy through objective, nonpartisan research on the economic, social, and political issues that affect Californians. The institute was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. This report will appear on PPIC’s website (www.ppic.org) on August 25. ### - vii - Proposition 73: Waiting Period and Parental Notification Before Termination of a Minor's Pregnancy 8 Proposition 74: Public School Teachers Waiting Period for Permanent Status and Dismissal 9 44 42 48 49 Likely voters Yes No Don't know Likely voters Yes No Don't know Proposition 75: Public Employee Union Dues, Restrictions on Political Contributions, Employee Consent Requirement 9 Proposition 76: State Spending and School Funding Limits 11 28 33 58 61 Likely voters Yes No Don't know Proposition 77: Reapportionment 17 34 Likely voters Yes No Don't know Approval Ratings of Elected Officials 38 34 27 49 Percent all adults 10 20 30 40 50 Likely voters Yes No Don't know 0 President Governor Legislature Special Election Special Election in 2005 California voters who are most likely to vote in elections continue to express little enthusiasm for the November special election that Governor Schwarzenegger has called to pass his reform initiatives. Six in 10 likely voters would prefer to wait until the next statewide election in June 2006, while 36 percent think it is better to hold a special election later this year. Support for a special election among likely voters is similar today to support in July and May (33%) but has dropped by 8 points since January (44%). In all regions of the state, and across age, education, income, and racial/ethnic categories, a majority of likely voters oppose the special election. Democrats and independents would prefer to wait until June 2006, while a majority of Republicans would like to hold the election this fall. Liberals and moderates are strongly opposed to the special election (77% and 62%, respectively), while 53 percent of conservatives favor it. Sixty-three percent of those who approve of the governor’s performance in office support his special election proposal. However, of those who disapprove of the governor’s performance, 82 percent prefer to wait until the next scheduled statewide election. Still, the special election has caught the attention of two in three likely voters, who say that they are very closely or fairly closely following the news about this topic. Interest is similarly high across regions of the state and partisan groups; however, the percentage of likely voters closely following this issue is much higher today among college graduates (79%) than among those with no college education (40%) and also higher among whites (70%) than Latinos (56%). Interest in news about the special election (68%) is currently much lower than interest in the presidential election in August 2004 or the governor’s recall in August 2003 (89% each). “Governor Schwarzenegger has called a special election in November 2005 to vote on budget, educational, and governmental reform measures. Do you think it is better to have a special election later this year, or is it better to have waited until the next scheduled statewide election in June 2006? Likely Voters Only Better to have a special election Better to have waited until scheduled election in 2006 Don't know All Likely Voters 36% 60 4 Party Dem Rep 20% 52% 76 41 47 Ind 44% 56 0 Central Valley 38% 60 2 Region SF Bay Area 28% Los Angeles 36% Other Southern California 40% 69 58 36 54 6 “How closely are you following news about the special election on November 8th?” Likely Voters Only Very closely Fairly closely Not too closely Not at all closely Don't know All Likely Voters 21% 47 23 8 1 Dem 21% 46 25 8 0 Party Rep 20% 46 26 8 0 Ind 20% 53 16 11 0 -1- Central Valley 18% 53 22 7 0 Region SF Bay Area 19% 56 16 8 1 Los Angeles 22% 41 27 10 0 Other Southern California 25% 44 24 6 1 Special Election Proposition 73: Parental Notification Before Termination of Minor’s Pregnancy With the special election just three months away, voters are divided about a citizens’ initiative, Proposition 73, that would require doctors to notify parents when a minor seeks an abortion: 48 percent would vote no on Proposition 73, while 44 percent would vote yes, when they are read the ballot measure. There are sharp partisan differences in response to Proposition 73. Six in 10 Republicans support the measure, while a similar proportion of Democrats are opposed; independents are divided (45% yes, 47% no). Supporters outnumber opponents in the Central Valley and Other Southern California, while Los Angeles voters are divided and a majority of San Francisco Bay Area voters are opposed. Two in three conservatives would vote yes, while three in four liberals would vote no. Women are more likely than men to oppose Proposition 73 (51% to 46%). Opposition is similar among Latinos (47%) and whites (49%). Voters with children currently living at home are slightly more likely than those without children to say they would vote yes (47% to 43%). Among voters who frequently attend religious services, support for Proposition 73 stands at 59 percent. Opposition to the proposition tends to increase with education and income, while support for the measure increases with age. Among 18 to 34 year olds, 35 percent would vote yes and 61 percent would vote no. Eight in 10 likely voters say the outcome of the vote on this measure is important to them, including half who say it is very important. Women (58%) are more likely than men (41%), and Democrats (55%) are more likely than Republicans (44%) and independents (46%), to say that the outcome of Proposition 73 at the ballot box is very important to them. Among likely voters who frequently attend religious services, 60 percent consider the outcome of Proposition 73 of great importance. Although both supporters and opponents of Proposition 73 consider the outcome important, those who would currently vote yes on the proposition are slightly more likely than those who would vote no to say that the outcome is very important (54% to 50%). “Proposition 73 is called the Waiting Period and Parental Notification Before Termination of Minor's Pregnancy Initiative Constitutional Amendment.... If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on Proposition 73?”* Likely Voters Only Yes No Don't know All Likely Voters 44% 48 8 Party Dem 34% 60 6 Rep 61% 31 8 Ind 45% 47 8 Central Valley 50% 43 7 Region SF Bay Los Area Angeles Other Southern California 33% 46% 50% 61 46 43 68 7 “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 73?” Likely Voters Only Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Don't know All Likely Voters 50% 33 10 4 3 Proposition 73 Yes No 54% 35 9 2 0 50% 31 11 6 2 * For complete question wording, see question 13 in the survey questionnaire, page 22. -2- Special Election Proposition 74: Teachers Waiting Period for Permanent Status and Dismissal One of the ballot initiatives supported by the governor, Proposition 74, would increase the probationary period for public school teachers from two to five years and modify the process by which school boards can dismiss an employee with two consecutive unsatisfactory performance evaluations. When read the ballot language describing Proposition 74, 49 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes and 42 percent say they would vote no on the measure if the election were held today. While a majority of Democrats would vote no, a majority of Republicans would vote yes, and more independents would vote yes than no on the initiative (49% to 41%). Similarly, 66 percent of conservatives say they would vote yes, and 57 percent of liberals say they would vote no. Seventy percent of those who approve of the governor’s performance in office favor this ballot measure, while 58 percent of those who disapprove of his performance say they oppose it. Support for Proposition 74 increases with age and income and is somewhat higher among whites (50%) than Latinos (46%). Three in four voters say that poor teacher performance is at least somewhat of a problem in the state’s public schools, while 36 percent rate it as a big problem. Republicans (44%), conservatives (42%), and voters who approve of the governor’s performance (45%) are among the most likely to rate this issue as a big problem. At the same time, Democrats (31%), liberals (28%), and those who disapprove of the governor’s performance (30%) are among the least likely to rate poor teacher performance as a major problem. Latinos (43%) are more likely than whites (33%), and those with incomes under $40,000 (40%) are more likely than those with incomes of $80,000 or more (30%), to rate poor teacher performance as a big problem. Among those who would vote yes on Proposition 74, nine in 10 rate poor teacher performance as at least somewhat of a problem, and half say it is a big problem. Those who are inclined to vote against the measure are much less likely to rate poor teacher performance as a big problem in the public schools. “Proposition 74 is called the Public School Teachers Waiting Period for Permanent Status and Dismissal Initiative…. If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on Proposition 74?”* Likely Voters Only Yes No Don't know All Likely Voters 49% 42 9 Dem 38% 54 8 Party Rep 63% 26 11 Central Ind Valley 49% 48% 41 44 10 8 Region SF Bay Los Area Angeles 45% 48% 47 44 88 Other Southern California 57% 35 8 “Do you think that poor teacher performance is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem in California's public schools today?” Likely Voters Only Big problem Somewhat of a problem Not much of a problem Not at all a problem (volunteered) Don't know All Likely Voters 36% 39 19 2 4 Proposition 74 Yes 50% 41 7 1 1 No 22% 38 34 2 4 * For complete question wording, see question 15 in the survey questionnaire, page 22. -3- August 2005 Special Election Proposition 75: Public Employee Union Dues and Political Contributions Proposition 75 would prohibit using public employee union dues for political contributions without individual employees’ prior consent. The proposition is currently favored by 58 percent of likely voters and opposed by 33 percent. Republicans (72%) and independents (64%) strongly support Proposition 75, while Democrats are currently divided (46% favor, 42% oppose). The measure is favored by a majority of likely voters in all regions; however, support is lower in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area than in other regions. Support for the proposition tends to increase with education and income, and the measure is equally favored by white and Latino voters (59% each). More generally, California’s likely voters endorse the idea of restricting union funding of political causes (55% approve, 38% disapprove). A majority of Republicans and independents favor such restrictions, while Democrats are divided. Likely voters also support restrictions on corporate contributions to political causes (61% yes; 31% no), with a majority across political parties favoring the idea. Likely voters who would vote yes on Proposition 75 if the special election were held today clearly favor restrictions on both unions (70%) and businesses (67%). In our May 1998 survey, similar questions elicited majority support in favor of restricting contributions to candidates and ballot initiatives by unions (50%) and corporations (55%). “Proposition 75 is called the Public Employee Union Dues, Restrictions on Political Contributions, Employee Consent Requirement Initiative…. If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on Proposition 75?”* Likely Voters Only Yes No Don't know All Likely Voters 58% 33 9 Party Dem 46% 42 12 Rep 72% 20 8 Region Central Ind Valley 64% 64% 28 30 86 SF Bay Los Area Angeles 58% 54% 37 36 5 10 Other Southern California 62% 28 10 “Do you approve or disapprove of placing restrictions on the ability of labor unions to contribute to political candidates and ballot initiatives?” Likely Voters Only Approve Disapprove Don't know All Likely Voters 55% 38 7 Dem 47% 46 7 Party Rep 67% 28 5 Ind 54% 38 8 “Do you approve or disapprove of placing restrictions on the ability of business corporations to contribute to political candidates and ballot initiatives?” Likely Voters Only Approve Disapprove Don't know All Likely Voters 61% 31 8 Dem 59% 35 6 Party Rep 62% 30 8 Ind 63% 29 8 * For complete question wording, see question 17 in the survey questionnaire, page 22. -4- Special Election Proposition 76: State Spending and School Funding Limits Another initiative favored by the governor, Proposition 76, would limit state spending to the prior year’s level plus three years’ average revenue growth. This measure would also change the minimum school funding requirements passed by the voters in Proposition 98 and permit the governor, under some conditions, to reduce budget appropriations of the governor’s choosing. When likely voters are read the ballot language describing Proposition 76, 61 percent say they would vote no, and 28 percent say they would vote yes, if the election were held today. Republicans favor this measure (49% to 38%), while majorities of Democrats (79%) and independents (59%) are opposed to it. Voter opposition to the state spending and school funding limits is currently strongest in the San Francisco Bay Area. Among those who approve of the governor’s performance in office, 56 percent say they would vote yes, while 85 percent of those who disapprove of his performance say they would vote no. Support for Proposition 76 tends to increase slightly with age, education, and income, and it is higher among whites (32%) than Latinos (17%) and among homeowners (29%) than renters (23%). Still, voter support for Proposition 76 currently falls well short of a majority in all racial/ethnic and demographic groups. While seven in 10 say that the outcome of the vote on Proposition 76 is at least somewhat important in terms of dealing with future budget situations, this widely held perception is not, at this time, strongly related to voter support for the initiative. Two in three inclined to vote no on this ballot measure say that the outcome will be at least somewhat important when it comes to dealing with future budget situations, with 40 percent rating the outcome as very important. Nearly all who are inclined to vote yes today rate the outcome on Proposition 76 as at least somewhat important for future budget situations. Moreover, Republicans and Democrats, and liberals and conservatives, are fairly similar in their views that the outcome of the Proposition 76 vote will be very important in future budget situations. “Proposition 76 is called the State Spending and School Funding Limits Initiative Constitutional Amendment…. If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on Proposition 76?”* Likely Voters Only Yes No Don't know All Likely Voters 28% 61 11 Party Dem 13% 79 8 Rep 49% 38 13 Ind 27% 59 14 Central Valley 33% 58 9 Region Other SF Bay Los Southern Area Angeles California 23% 69 25% 61 34% 54 8 14 12 “In terms of dealing with future state budget conditions, how important is it whether Proposition 76 passes?” Likely Voters Only Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Don't know All Likely Voters 41% 29 9 12 9 Proposition 76 Yes 53% 40 3 2 2 No 40% 25 13 18 4 * For complete question wording, see question 20 in the survey questionnaire, page 23. -5- August 2005 Special Election Proposition 77: Reapportionment Proposition 77—a citizens’ initiative supported by Governor Schwarzenegger—would take the responsibility of redistricting California’s Senate, Assembly, Congressional, and Board of Equalization districts out of the hands of the governor and state legislature and give it instead to a three-member panel of retired judges selected by legislative leaders. When read the ballot language describing this initiative, 34 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes on this measure if the election were held today, and 49 percent say they would vote no; seventeen percent remained undecided. Half of Republicans would vote yes, while about six in 10 Democrats would vote no; independents are also inclined to vote no on the measure (30% yes, 50% no, 20% don’t know). At this time, support for Proposition 77 falls below 40 percent in all of the state’s major regions. Those who say they approve of the governor’s performance in office tend to support Proposition 77 (55% yes, 27% no), while those who disapprove of the governor’s performance tend to oppose the measure (18% yes, 69% no). Similarly, those who favor a special election support Proposition 77 (53% yes, 29% no), while those against a special election tend to oppose it (24% yes, 62% no). Forty-six percent of likely voters believe they would have Congressional and state legislators who would more effectively represent their districts if the voting districts were redrawn by an independent panel of judges. Among those who would vote yes on Proposition 77, eight in 10 believe that the redistricting process called for in Proposition 77 would provide them with more effective representatives than they have today. Among those who have currently decided to vote no on the proposition, only about one in four believes that an independent panel of judges would bring about more effective legislators. The perception that an independent panel of judges would result in more effective legislators is most strongly held by Republicans (54%), conservatives (57%), those who approve of the governor’s performance (59%), and those who are in favor of having a special election this year (59%). “Proposition 77 is called the Reapportionment Initiative Constitutional Amendment…. If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on Proposition 77?”* Likely Voters Only Yes No Don't know All Likely Voters 34% 49 17 Party Dem 22% 62 16 Rep 51% 31 18 Ind 30% 50 20 Central Valley 35% 52 13 Region SF Bay Los Area Angeles Other Southern California 39% 32% 36% 48 51 44 13 17 20 “If voting districts were redrawn by an independent panel of judges, do you think California would generally have Congressional and state legislators who more effectively represent their districts than legislators do today, or not?” Likely Voters Only Yes, would represent more effectively No, would not represent more effectively Don't know All Likely Voters 46% 35 19 Proposition 77 Yes 82% 11 7 No 26% 59 15 * For complete question wording, see question 22 in the survey questionnaire, page 23. -6- State Issues Citizens’ Initiative Process As Californians head to a November special election that contains eight initiatives, they are confident in what they are doing. Fifty-seven percent of Californians think that public policy made through the initiative process is probably better than public policy decisions made by the governor and legislature. Only one in four ranks voters’ decisions as probably worse than those made by their elected officials. This perception is largely unchanged over the course of the past five years, and a belief in the advantages of initiatives is widely held across racial/ethnic, age, education, income, and political groups. While a majority of Californians have a favorable impression of making public policy at the ballot box, many also say the initiative process is less than perfect. Only one in 10 is very satisfied with the way that the initiative process is working in California today, while the majority are only somewhat satisfied (58%) and about one in four is not satisfied. Satisfaction with the initiative process is unchanged during the past five years. Republicans, conservatives, and those who approve of the governor’s performance are the least likely to say they are not satisfied with the way the initiative process is working today. Although it is not seen as the most dominant element in making public policy, the initiative process overall is viewed very favorably by the public. Nearly seven in 10 (68%) say it is a good thing that a majority of voters can make laws and change public policies by passing initiatives, while only 24 percent think it is a bad thing. This positive perception of the initiative process is also largely unchanged over the past five years, and it is widely held across political groups, regions of the state, and racial/ethnic groups. Despite their support for the initiative process, Californians think the governor (34%) and the state legislature (35%) have the most influence in making public policy decisions, while about one in five (19%) mentions state ballot initiatives as being influential. A year ago, residents ranked the governor (39%) over the state legislature (31%) as the most influential force in the public policy arena in California. The public’s perception that the legislature has the most policy influence increases with voter registration, frequent voting, age, education, and income. “Overall, do you think public policy decisions made through the initiative process by California voters are probably better or probably worse than public policy decisions made by the governor and state legislature?” Probably better Probably worse Same (volunteered) Don't know All Adults 57% 25 6 12 Dem 54% 30 5 11 Party Rep 64% 18 6 12 Ind 58% 24 8 10 Likely Voters 58% 26 7 9 “Generally speaking, would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, or not satisfied with the way the initiative process is working in California today?” Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Not satisfied Don't know All Adults 10% 58 26 6 Dem 7% 54 34 5 Party Rep 12% 66 17 5 Ind 10% 56 27 7 Likely Voters 9% 60 26 5 -7- State Issues Governor’s Approval Ratings Governor Schwarzenegger’s approval ratings are at a low point heading into the special election. Currently, 34 percent of Californians approve of the way he is handling his job, while 54 percent disapprove. These approval ratings are down sharply from a year ago, when 65 percent approved and 28 percent disapproved of his job performance. How does Governor Schwarzenegger compare with his predecessor? When Gray Davis faced a recall in a special election two years ago, 67 percent disapproved of his performance as governor. Today, the governor’s approval ratings are higher among likely voters (41%). Republicans (69%) are much more likely than Democrats (18%) or independents (38%) to approve of Governor Schwarzenegger’s performance in office. Similarly, the governor’s approval ratings are much higher among conservatives (52%) than moderates (34%) and liberals (16%). Although whites are evenly divided on the governor’s performance (45% approve, 43% disapprove), Latinos are highly negative in their assessments of Governor Schwarzenegger (17% approve, 73% disapprove). Approval ratings for the governor tend to rise with increases in age, education, income, and homeownership. Similarly, 35 percent approve and 50 percent disapprove of the governor’s handling of the issue of reforming California government. The governor’s approval ratings in this area have declined sharply since January (58% approve, 30% disapprove) and May (40% approve, 45% disapprove). Among likely voters, 41 percent approve of his performance in reforming government, while 48 percent say they disapprove. Most Democrats say they disapprove of the governor’s handling of this issue, while most Republicans give him positive marks; independents are divided in their assessments of Schwarzenegger‘s handling of this issue. Fifty-five percent of residents disapprove of the way the governor is handling the state budget and taxes, and only 33 percent say they approve. This is a sharp turnaround from a year ago, when 58 percent approved and 34 percent disapproved of his performance on fiscal issues. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 34% 54 12 Party Dem 18% 72 10 Rep 69% 20 11 Central Ind Valley 38% 39% 50 47 12 14 Region SF Bay Los Area Angeles Other Southern California 27% 31% 40% 59 60 48 14 9 12 Likely Voters 41% 50 9 “Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Schwarzenegger is handling the issue of reforming California government?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 35% 50 15 Party Dem 19% 67 14 Rep 64% 23 13 Central Ind Valley 41% 40% 45 46 14 14 Region SF Bay Los Area Angeles Other Southern California 29% 32% 37% 56 56 46 15 12 17 Likely Voters 41% 48 11 -8- State Issues Legislature’s Approval Ratings The legislature fares even worse than the governor in approval ratings. Only 27 percent of residents approve of the state legislature’s performance, while 56 percent disapprove. This rating is similar to May’s (26% approve, 58% disapprove) and is down significantly from a year ago (42% approve, 45% disapprove). The legislature’s ratings are at the low point reached in August 2003, just before the October 2003 recall election, when 28 percent approved and 58 percent disapproved of its job performance. Likely voters are even more negative than all adult residents, with 64 percent saying they disapprove and 23 percent saying they approve of the overall performance of the legislature. Republicans (61%) and independents (63%) are more negative than Democrats (55%) toward the Democratic-controlled legislature. Majorities across the liberal-to-conservative political spectrum, across regions of the state, and across education and income categories all disapprove of the way that the California legislature is handling its job. When it comes to the specific issue of handling the budget and taxes, the legislature receives ratings that are even lower (62% disapprove, 23% approve) than its overall ratings, and lower than those the governor received on the same issue. The current ratings of the legislature on the budget issue are lower than a year ago (53% disapprove, 35% approve) and nearing their lowest point, in August 2003, which was two months before the October 2003 governor’s recall election. (71% disapprove, 19% approve). However, when asked about the job performance of legislators from their own districts, residents are much more positive. Thirty-eight percent approve and 40 percent disapprove of their own legislators’ performance in office. However, likely voters are more negative in their assessments (44% disapprove, 39% approve), and Democrats are much more likely than Republicans and independents to express approval for their state legislators. Also, approval ratings for local legislators are declining, when compared to May 2005 (47%), October 2004 (49%), and December 2001 (61%). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California legislature is handling its job?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 27% 56 17 Party Dem 29% 55 16 Rep 24% 61 15 Central Ind Valley 24% 30% 63 53 13 17 Region Other SF Bay Los Southern Area Angeles California 26% 29% 24% 59 55 15 16 58 18 Likely Voters 23% 64 13 “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that the state legislators representing your assembly and state senate districts are doing at this time?” Approve Disapprove Mixed (volunteered) Don't know All Adults 38% 40 5 17 Party Dem 46% 36 Rep 34% 46 64 12 16 Central Ind Valley 33% 43% 44 37 Region Other SF Bay Los Southern Area Angeles California 39% 40% 33% 41 39 45 34 5 6 4 20 16 15 15 18 Likely Voters 39% 44 5 12 - 9 - August 2005 State Issues Distrust in State Government Consistent with their doubts about the legislative process and their support for citizens’ initiatives, only 30 percent of Californians say they think they can trust the state government to do what is right just about always or most of the time. The level of distrust in state government is unchanged throughout this year and shows little improvement since a historically low 27 percent in the week before the 2003 recall election. All of these levels of trust in state government are much lower than they were in January 2001 (46%) and January 2002 (47%). Trust in state government fell below 40 percent during the 2002 election. Today, likely voters (24%) are even less inclined than all registered voters (27%) or all adults (30%) to say that they can trust their state government just about always or most of the time. Distrust in state government is consistent across voter groups, with more than six in 10 independents, Republicans, and Democrats saying they can trust the government in Sacramento only some of the time. Distrust tends to increase with age, education, and income categories. Latinos (42%) are much more likely than whites (26%) to say they trust their state government to do what is right at least most of the time. Californians’ distrust of their state government is reflected in their negative impressions of who runs it and how efficiently it operates. Sixty-five percent of residents believe Sacramento is run by a few big interests rather than for the benefit of all the people. The belief that the state government is being run by a few big interests is unchanged since the October 2003 recall (65% in January 2004, 67% in May 2005) and has increased somewhat since the Davis Administration (60% in January 2001; 54% in January 2002). The belief that state government is run by a few big interests is even stronger today among likely voters (71%), and is one widely held among Democrats (71%), independents (69%) and Republicans (65%). Solid majorities across all demographic groups say the state government is run by big interests looking out for themselves, but whites (67%) are more likely than Latinos (58%) to hold this view. Meanwhile, 61 percent of adults believe that the state government wastes a lot of taxpayer money; this is the highest percentage holding this belief since the question was first asked in January 2001. “How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Sacramento to do what is right?” Just about always Most of the time Only some of the time None of the time (volunteered) Don't know All Adults 5% 25 62 5 3 Dem 3% 24 65 5 3 Party Rep 3% 25 64 6 2 Ind 4% 23 64 9 0 Likely Voters 2% 22 69 6 1 “Would you say the state government is pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves, or that it is run for the benefit of all of the people?” A few big interests Benefit of all of the people Don't know All Adults 65% 26 9 Dem 71% 20 9 Party Rep 65% 25 10 Ind 69% 22 9 Likely Voters 71% 21 8 - 10 - State Issues Overall Mood The public’s mood about the state of the state is pessimistic today, with nearly six in 10 Californians (57%) saying that things in the state are generally going in the wrong direction. This outlook is similar to their downbeat view in May (35% right direction, 57% wrong direction); a year ago, residents were divided in their assessment of the state of the state (44% right direction, 42% wrong direction). Before the 2003 recall election, 66 percent of residents said that the state was generally going in the wrong direction. Today, likely voters have a similar outlook (34% right direction, 58% wrong direction) as all adults, while Republicans (49% right direction, 41% wrong direction) are much more upbeat than Democrats (24% right direction, 68% wrong direction) or independents (34% right direction, 56% wrong direction). For those who express approval of the governor, 59 percent say the state is headed in the right direction, while of those who say they disapprove of the governor, 77 percent say it is going in the wrong direction. A majority of residents across the state’s regions, racial/ethnic groups, and age, education, and income categories say that the state is headed in the wrong direction. Moreover, half of residents predict the state will have bad times financially in the next year, while fewer than four in 10 expect good economic times. This view is similar across all regions of the state. This lack of consumer confidence now is similar to May’s (49% bad times, 39% good times) and reflects a more pessimistic view than a year ago (40% bad times, 45% good times). Likely voters now are only slightly more optimistic, with 42 percent expecting good economic times in the state. Republicans (54%) are much more likely than Democrats (29%) and independents (37%) to expect good financial times. Similar to views on the state of the state, 58 percent of those who approve of Governor Schwarzenegger’s job performance expect good economic times, while 64 percent who disapprove of his job performance expect bad economic times. Across the state’s major regions, residents have similarly negative appraisals of the state economic outlook for the next 12 months. “Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?” Right direction Wrong direction Don't know All Adults 34% 57 9 Central Valley 39% 54 7 Region SF Bay Area 34% 59 7 Los Angeles 32% 58 10 Other Southern California 34% 57 9 Likely Voters 34% 58 8 “Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?” Good times Bad times Don't know All Adults 38% 51 11 Central Valley 39% 50 11 Region SF Bay Area 42% 48 10 Los Angeles 36% 53 11 Other Southern California 40% 48 12 Likely Voters 42% 47 11 - 11 - August 2005 State Issues Most Important Problem When asked to name the most important issue facing California, the state’s job market and economic conditions and its education and schools continue to top the list of Californians’ concerns. About one in five residents mentions jobs, the economy, and unemployment, while one in six adults names education and schools. One in 10 residents names legal and illegal immigration as the top issue, while fewer mention crime and gangs, housing costs and availability, state budget and taxes, health care, and gasoline prices. The current rankings are similar to May’s, when Californians named the economy (20%) and schools (19%) as their top concerns, followed by legal and illegal immigration (9%), crime and gangs (8%), and the state budget deficit (7%). Two years ago, in August 2003, 34 percent named the economy as the most important issue, followed by the state budget (12%), and schools and the governor’s recall (11% each), while only 3 percent mentioned immigration as the most important problem facing people in California. In all of the major regions of the state, the economy ranks among the most important issues facing the people of California today. However, there are important regional differences in the mention of other issues. San Francisco Bay Area residents are more likely than others to single out schools, while Los Angeles residents are more likely than others to name crime and gangs, and Other Southern California adults are more likely than others to say that immigration is the state’s top issue. Jobs and the economy are the top issues across racial/ethnic, income, and other demographic groups. Latinos (18%) are more likely than whites (3%) to name crime and gangs as the most important problem, while 17 percent of whites rank schools as their top issue, compared to 10 percent of Latinos. Only 7 percent of Latinos name immigration as the top state issue, compared to 12 percent of whites. State residents who are most likely to vote rank the economy, schools, and immigration as their major concerns. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to name immigration (18% to 5%), while Democrats are more likely than Republicans to name schools (20% to 13%) as the top issue. “Thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today?” Economy, jobs, unemployment Education, schools Immigration, illegal immigration Crime, gangs, drugs Housing costs, availability State budget, deficit, taxes Health care/costs, HMO reform Gasoline prices Other (specify) Don't know All Adults 20% 15 9 8 7 5 4 3 22 7 Central Valley 22% 12 6 7 7 8 3 4 22 9 Region Other SF Bay Los Southern Area Angeles California 22% 19% 18% 22 13 15 6 9 16 5 13 5 96 7 44 7 44 4 33 2 21 22 19 47 7 Likely Voters 19% 17 13 4 6 8 4 3 23 3 - 12 - National Issues President’s Approval Ratings Californians’ negative assessment of state government officials extends to Washington D.C. President Bush’s job approval ratings remain at the same low level they have been for the past year, with only 38 percent of Californians today approving of the way he is handling his job, and 58 percent disapproving. The president’s current approval rating is identical to the one he received in July (38% approve) and is similar to his rating in August 2004 (40% approve). Bush’s approval today is 41 points lower than its high of 79 percent in December 2001. Californians are more negative about the president than are Americans overall, according to August surveys by the Gallup Organization and CBS News/ New York Times, which both found 45 percent of respondents nationwide approving of Bush’s performance. The views of likely voters are similar to those of all Californians, but approval ratings for Bush vary widely by party registration. Eighty-three percent of Democrats disapprove of the president’s performance in office, while 71 percent of Republicans approve. Independents are twice as likely to disapprove than approve (64% to 32%). Bush’s support, however, differs somewhat between Latinos (37%) and whites (42%). Although Bush’s approval ratings are higher in the Central Valley (48%) and Other Southern California (46%) regions than in the San Francisco Bay Area (25%) and in Los Angeles (36%), fewer than half in any region say they approve of the way he is handling his job. On the issue of Iraq, Bush’s ratings remain low, with only three in 10 Californians approving of his handling of the situation there. Bush’s ratings on Iraq are down slightly since January (34% approval), and have dropped 24 points from his 55 percent approval rating in September 2002. Californians are more negative than all Americans, who gave Bush a 39 percent approval rating in a nationwide survey in July by NBC News/Wall Street Journal. Again, most California Democrats (87%) and independents (68%) disapprove of Bush’s performance on Iraq, while two in three Republicans approve. Among likely voters, approval rises slightly to 34 percent. Men are more positive about the president’s handling of the Iraq situation than are women (35% to 28%). While Californians are fairly negative in rating Bush’s handling of the situation in Iraq, they offer a mixed review when asked about terrorism and homeland security (46% approve, 49% disapprove). This is similar to Bush’s approval ratings on this issue in August 2004 (47%) but is down sharply from the high point of 85 percent in January 2002. There are differences by party registration, with Democrats nearly as likely to disapprove of the president’s performance on homeland security (70%) as Republicans are to approve (75%); independents’ responses are more likely to be unfavorable than favorable (57% to 39%). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that …” George W. Bush is handling his job as president of the United States? President Bush is handling the situation in Iraq? President Bush is handling terrorism and homeland security issues? Approve Disapprove Don't know Approve Disapprove Don't know Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 38% 58 4 31 65 4 46 49 5 Dem 15% 83 2 11 87 2 26 70 4 Party Rep 71% 24 5 64 30 6 75 21 4 Ind 32% 64 4 29 68 3 39 57 4 Likely Voters 39% 58 3 34 64 2 44 52 4 - 13 - National Issues U.S. Efforts in Iraq Californians continue to be very pessimistic about the U.S. situation in Iraq, with only 6 percent saying things are going very well, and four in 10 saying they are going not at all well. These opinions are similar to January’s survey, when 43 percent said things in Iraq were going not at all well for the U.S., and this pessimism has risen markedly since August 2003 (19%). Today, a majority of Democrats (57%) and 41 percent of independents say things are going not at all well for the U.S. in Iraq, while 58 percent of Republicans say things are going at least somewhat well. Pessimism about Iraq is greater in the San Francisco Bay Area and in Los Angeles than elsewhere in the state. Latinos (46%) are more likely than whites (36%) to say that things are going not at all well for the U.S. in Iraq. “In general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq?” Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Don't know All Adults 6% 24 27 40 3 Dem 2% 13 27 57 1 Party Rep 15% 43 24 15 3 Ind 4% 24 29 41 2 Likely Voters 7% 26 25 41 1 A majority of California’s adults (64%) and likely voters (61%) think that it was not worth going to war in Iraq. While solid majorities of Democrats (81%) and independents (66%) think the war was not worth it, most Republicans (62%) say it was. A majority in all regions of the state now believe that it was not worth going to war in Iraq. Moreover, a majority across racial/ethnic groups also think the war was not worth it, although whites (57%) are less likely than Latinos (72%) to hold this view. According to an August national survey by the CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, Americans in general (44%) are more likely than Californians (31%) to feel that it was worth going to war. Only 33 percent of Californians think the war in Iraq has helped the war on terrorism, while 56 percent think it has hurt it. A majority of Democrats (73%) and independents (57%) feel that the Iraq war has hurt the war on terrorism, while most Republicans (62%) feel it has helped fight terrorism. Latinos (65%) are more likely than whites (49%) to think that the Iraq war has hurt the war on terrorism. Pessimism is greater in the San Francisco Bay Area and in Los Angeles than elsewhere. Californians are even more negative in this view than are Americans nationwide—a July Pew Research Center survey found that 39 percent of Americans think the Iraq war has helped the war on terror. “All in all, do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq, or not?” Worth it Not worth it Don't know All Adults 31% 64 5 Dem 16% 81 3 Party Rep 62% 30 8 Ind 31% 66 3 Likely Voters 35% 61 4 - 14 - National Issues U.S. Homeland Security As the fourth anniversary of the September 11th terrorist attack approaches, and with the memory of recent subway bombings in London still fresh, a solid majority of Californians are concerned about another terrorist attack in the United States. Almost seven in 10 state residents say they are very (27%) or somewhat (41%) worried there will be another attack soon, while 31 percent say they are not too worried (21%) or not at all worried (10%). Californians are about as worried as Americans nationwide (69% are at least somewhat worried), according to a national survey by the Pew Research Center in July. Strong majorities in all parties are concerned about another terrorist attack, with Democrats (69%) slightly more worried than Republicans (64%) and independents (65%). More than two in three in all regions are concerned, with fears greatest in the Los Angeles and Other Southern California regions (71% each). Latinos (75%) are more likely than whites (64%) to be at least somewhat worried. Similarly, 68 percent of residents rate the issue of terrorism and homeland security as at least somewhat of a problem in California today, with 29 percent considering it a big problem. The proportion who rank this issue as a problem today is higher than it was in response to a similar question in August 2004 (66%), August 2003 (61%), and August 2002 (64%), but lower than in December 2001 (73%). “How worried are you that there will soon be another terrorist attack in the United States?” Very worried Somewhat worried Not too worried Not at all worried Don't know All Adults 27% 41 21 10 1 Dem 25% 44 20 10 1 Party Rep 24% 40 28 8 0 Ind 24% 41 24 11 0 Likely Voters 24% 42 23 10 1 Relating to fears about terrorist attacks, 46 percent of Californians say government policies have not gone far enough to protect the country, while 36 percent are concerned that these policies have gone too far in restricting civil liberties. Republicans (60%) are much more inclined than Democrats (40%) or independents (47%) to say that anti-terrorism policies have not gone far enough, and Los Angeles and San Francisco Bay Area residents are more likely than others to say that they have gone too far. Latinos (46%) are more inclined than whites (32%), and naturalized citizens (43%) are more likely than U.S.-born adults (33%), to say these government policies have gone too far. Californians are less likely than adults nationwide to say that anti-terrorism policies have not gone far enough (46% to 52%), according to the July survey by the Pew Research Center. “What concerns you more about the government's anti-terrorism policies, that they have not gone far enough to protect the country or that they have gone too far in restricting the average person’s civil liberties?” Not gone far enough Gone too far Neither (volunteered) Don't know All Adults 46% 36 11 7 Dem 40% 43 9 8 Party Rep 60% 19 15 6 Ind 47% 37 12 4 Likely Voters 47% 35 12 6 - 15 - August 2005 National Issues Supreme Court In a state that has sharply partisan differences about the performance of the president and governor, there is striking agreement in views of the Supreme Court. Californians express a generally favorable opinion of the Supreme Court and of President Bush’s nominee John Roberts to fill the seat of retiring Justice Sandra Day O’Connor. Overall, 52 percent of Californians approve of the way the nation’s highest court is doing its job, while 33 percent disapprove. Among likely voters, approval drops slightly to 50 percent, and disapproval rises to 38 percent, while 12 percent have no opinion. Approval is also similar in all geographic regions. Approval rises with education and income, while disapproval increases with age, but supporters outnumber detractors across demographic groups. Majority approval is also evident among whites and Latinos (54% each), and across education and income groups, when they are asked to evaluate how the Supreme Court is handling its job. “Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 52% 33 15 Dem 52% 34 14 Party Rep 53% 37 10 Ind 53% 34 13 Likely Voters 50% 38 12 John Roberts currently enjoys more support than opposition for confirmation among Californians. While support is short of a majority (49%), it is twice as high as the number opposed to confirming Roberts (24%). However, nearly three in 10 Californians are undecided. Among likely voters, support for Roberts’s confirmation rises to 54 percent. Republicans strongly support Roberts (72%), and independents are just short of a majority (49%), while Democrats are less enthusiastic (36%). Men favor Roberts more than do women (54% to 44%). Those who approve of the job that Bush is doing as president support confirmation (70%), while those who disapprove give a mixed response (35% confirm, 37% not confirm). Nationwide, Roberts draws stronger support, with 59 percent supporting his confirmation, according to a July ABC News/Washington Post poll. As for Roberts’s ideology, Californians are more inclined to say his views are about right (38%) given what they now know about him, rather than to consider him more conservative (29%) or less conservative (10%) than they would like. Californians are less approving than adults nationally, however, with 58 percent nationwide finding Roberts about right, according to a July ABC News/Washington Post poll. “As you may know, George W. Bush has nominated federal judge John Roberts to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court. Do you think the U.S. Senate should or should not confirm Roberts's nomination to the Supreme Court?” All Adults Should confirm Should not confirm Don't know 49% 24 27 Dem 36% 37 27 Party Rep 72% 8 20 Ind 49% 24 27 Likely Voters 54% 24 22 - 16 - National Issues Abortion Rights and Same-Sex Marriage Californians strongly support the Roe vs. Wade decision that legalized abortion in the U.S., with seven in 10 adults, and nearly three in four likely voters, opposed to the idea of the Supreme Court overturning the decision. Californians’ views are stronger than the nation’s, with 65 percent of adults in a nationwide Pew Research Center survey in July opposed to overturning the Roe vs. Wade decision. While Democrats (81%) and independents (75%) express a strongly pro-choice view on abortion, a majority of Republicans (60%) also would not like to see Roe vs. Wade overturned. Support for the 1973 decision increases with education, income, and among those without children, and is higher among liberals and moderates than conservatives. Men (70%) and women (69%) are equally in favor of upholding the decision. Whites (76%) are more in favor of the 1973 decision than are Latinos (56%). While a majority in all regions favor abortion rights, support is strongest in the San Francisco Bay area (81%), compared to the Central Valley (68%), Other Southern California (67%), and Los Angeles (65%) regions. Support for Roe vs. Wade also tends to decline with greater attendance at religious services. “In 1973, the Roe versus Wade decision established a woman's constitutional right to an abortion, at least in the first three months of pregnancy. Would you like to see the Supreme Court completely overturn the Roe versus Wade decision, or not?” Yes, overturn Roe versus Wade No, not overturn Roe versus Wade Don't know All Adults 24% 70 6 Dem 15% 81 4 Party Rep 33% 60 7 Ind 21% 75 4 Likely Voters 21% 74 5 As for same-sex marriage, Californians’ attitudes are divided, with 44 percent favoring and 48 percent opposing allowing gay and lesbian couples to be legally married. This division is similar to the one in February 2004 (44% favor; 50% oppose). Californians’ views are more favorable than those in the U.S. as a whole, given that 53 percent of adults in a nationwide Pew Research Center survey in July 2005 were opposed to allowing gay and lesbian couples to be legally married. Likely voters in California are evenly split on the issue of same-sex marriage. A majority of Democrats and independents (56% each) favor gay marital rights, while seven in 10 Republicans are opposed. Support for gay marriage also increases with education and income, and opposition increases with age. Women are more likely than men to favor same-sex marriage (48% to 40%), and whites (49%) express more support than do Latinos (36%). Gay and lesbian marriages are favored by 59 percent in the San Francisco Bay Area, compared to about four in 10 elsewhere. Opposition to same-sex marriage also tends to increase with greater attendance at religious services. “Do you favor or oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to be legally married?” Favor Oppose Don't know All Adults 44% 48 8 Dem 56% 35 9 Party Rep 24% 68 8 Ind 56% 36 8 Likely Voters 46% 46 8 - 17 - August 2005 National Issues Religious Displays and Flag Burning Californians strongly favor allowing certain religious displays in government settings. Sixty percent of residents approve of displaying a Ten Commandments monument in a public school or government building. Likely voters are no different. However, this support is lower in California than it is nationwide, with 70 percent of Americans in a national survey conducted by CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll in September 2003 approving of a Ten Commandments display. While about half of Democrats and independents favor displaying the Ten Commandments in public places, approval soars to nearly eight in 10 Republicans. At least six in 10 approve in the Los Angeles (59%), Other Southern California (66%) and Central Valley (70%) regions, but this drops to 46 percent in the San Francisco Bay Area. Approval for display is highest among older residents and those with less education. As would be expected, support for displaying a monument to the Ten Commandments in a public school or government building rises sharply among those who regularly attend religious services. “Do you approve or disapprove of a display of a monument to the Ten Commandments in a public school or government building?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 60% 34 6 Dem 54% 41 5 Party Rep 79% 16 5 Ind 50% 42 8 Likely Voters 58% 36 6 The national issue of outlawing flag burning is also a divisive one for Californians, with 47 percent favoring a constitutional amendment that would make it illegal to burn the American flag, and 48 percent opposing. Opposition increases slightly to 51 percent among likely voters. California is less supportive of this proposal than the nation, where 55 percent favor a constitutional amendment – which has passed the U.S. House of Representatives – while 42 percent are opposed, according to a June CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Republicans strongly favor a flag burning amendment (61%), while Democrats are opposed (54%) and independents are fairly divided (44% favor, 50% oppose). The proposed constitutional amendment is opposed by a majority of adults in the San Francisco Bay Area, while residents in the Los Angeles and Other Southern California regions are divided. A majority in the Central Valley favor a constitutional amendment. Support is greatest among those with less education, in lower- and middle-income groups, and among older residents. There are no differences in support for the constitutional amendment on flag burning across racial/ethnic groups. “Do you favor or oppose a constitutional amendment that would allow Congress and state governments to make it illegal to burn the American flag?” Favor constitutional amendment Oppose constitutional amendment Don't know All Adults 47% 48 5 Dem 42% 54 4 Party Rep 61% 35 4 Ind 44% 50 6 Likely Voters 46% 51 3 - 18 - Survey Methodology The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, research director and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance in research and writing from Douglas Strand, associate survey director; Kristy Michaud and Jennifer Paluch, survey research associates; and Lunna Lopes, survey intern. The survey was conducted with funding from The James Irvine Foundation and benefited from discussions with program staff, grantees, and others with expertise and interest in the state’s initiative process, in addition to regional focus groups with voters, also funded by the foundation; however, the survey methods, questions, and content of the report were solely determined by Mark Baldassare. The findings of this survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,004 California adult residents interviewed between August 8 and August 15, 2005. Interviewing took place mostly on weekday and weekend evenings, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All telephone exchanges in California were eligible for calling. Telephone numbers in the survey sample were called up to six times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing by using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Interviews took an average of 20.9 minutes to complete. Interviewing was conducted in English or Spanish. Accent on Languages translated the survey into Spanish, and Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas, Inc. conducted the telephone interviewing. We used recent U.S. Census and state figures to compare the demographic characteristics of the survey sample with characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the census and state figures. The survey data in this report were statistically weighted to account for any demographic differences. The sampling error for the total sample of 2,004 adults is +/- 2 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 2 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger. The sampling error for the 1,556 registered voters is +/- 2.5 percent. The sampling error for the 988 likely voters is +/- 3 percent, and the sampling error for each of the half samples is also +/- 3 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. Throughout the report, we refer to four geographic regions. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “SF Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, and “Other Southern California” includes the mostly suburban regions of Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. These four regions were chosen for analysis because they are major population centers that account for approximately 90 percent of the state population. We present specific results for Latinos because they account for about 30 percent of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest growing voter groups. The sample sizes for the African American and Asian subgroups are not large enough for separate statistical analysis. We also compare the opinions of registered Democrats, Republicans, and independents. The “independents” category includes only those who are registered to vote as “decline to state.” We compare PPIC Statewide Survey responses to responses recorded in national surveys conducted by ABC News/Washington Post, CBS News/New York Times, NBC News/Wall Street Journal, CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, the Gallup Organization, and the Pew Research Center. We use earlier PPIC Statewide Surveys to analyze trends over time in California. - 19 - PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: SPECIAL SURVEY ON CALIFORNIANS AND THE INITIATIVE PROCESS AUGUST 8 – 15, 2005 2,004 CALIFORNIA ADULT RESIDENTS: ENGLISH AND SPANISH MARGIN OF ERROR +/-2% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE 1. Thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today? [code, don’t read] 20% economy, jobs, unemployment 15 education, schools 9 immigration, illegal immigration 8 crime, gangs, drugs 7 housing costs, availability 5 state budget, deficit, taxes 4 health care/costs, HMO reform 3 gasoline prices 2 electricity costs, energy crisis 2 environment, pollution 2 government regulations 2 population growth, development 2 traffic, transportation 12 other (specify) 7 don’t know 2. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California? 34% approve 54 disapprove 12 don't know [rotate questions 3 and 4] 3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Schwarzenegger is handling the issue of reforming California government? 35% approve 50 disapprove 15 don't know 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Schwarzenegger is handling the issue of the state budget and taxes? 33% approve 55 disapprove 12 don't know 5. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California legislature is handling its job? 27% approve 56 disapprove 17 don't know - 21 - [rotate questions 6 and 7] 6. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California legislature is handling the issue of the state budget and taxes? 23% approve 62 disapprove 15 don't know 7. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that the state legislators representing your assembly and state senate districts are doing at this time? 38% approve 40 disapprove 5 mixed (volunteered) 17 don't know 8. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 34% right direction 57 wrong direction 9 don't know 9. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 38% good times 51 bad times 11 don't know [Responses recorded for questions 10 through 23 are from likely voters only. All other responses are from all adults, except where noted.] 10. Governor Schwarzenegger has called a special election in November 2005 to vote on budget, educational, and governmental reform measures. Do you think it is better to have a special election later this year, or is it better to have waited until the next scheduled statewide election in June 2006? 36% better to have a special election 60 better to have waited until scheduled election in 2006 4 don't know 11. On another topic, how closely are you following news about the special election on November 8th—very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 21% very closely 47 fairly closely 23 not too closely 8 not at all closely 1 don’t know 12. Which one of the state propositions on the November 8th ballot are you most interested in? [code, don’t read] 2% Proposition 73 12 Proposition 74 4 Proposition 75 9 Proposition 76 13 Proposition 77 1 Proposition 78 0 Proposition 79 1 Proposition 80 16 none of them (volunteered) 5 all equally (volunteered) 3 other (specify) 34 don’t know We have a few questions to ask you about some of the propositions on the November ballot. [rotate five blocks of questions randomly: (1)13, 14; (2) 15, 16; (3) 17, 18, 19 (4) 20, 21; (5) 22, 23] 13. Proposition 73 is called the "Waiting Period and Parental Notification Before Termination of Minor's Pregnancy Initiative Constitutional Amendment." It defines and prohibits abortion for an unemancipated minor until 48 hours after the physician notifies the minor's parent or legal guardian, except in a medical emergency or with parental waiver. It mandates reporting requirements and authorizes monetary damages against physicians for violations. The potential state costs would be several million dollars annually for health and social service programs, the courts, and state administration combined. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 73? 44% yes 48 no 8 don't know 14. How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 73—is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 50% very important 33 somewhat important 10 not too important 4 not at all important 3 don't know 15. Proposition 74 is called the "Public School Teachers Waiting Period for Permanent Status and Dismissal Initiative." It increases the probationary period for public school teachers from two years to five years. It modifies the process by which school boards can dismiss a teaching employee who receives two consecutive unsatisfactory performance evaluations. There would be unknown net effects on school districts' costs and costs would vary significantly by district. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 74? 49% yes 42 no 9 don't know 16. Do you think that poor teacher performance is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem in California's public schools today? 36% big problem 39 somewhat of a problem 19 not much of a problem 2 not at all a problem (volunteered) 4 don't know 17. Proposition 75 is called the "Public Employee Union Dues, Restrictions on Political Contributions, Employee Consent Requirement Initiative." It prohibits using public employee union dues for political contributions without individual employees' prior consent. It excludes contributions benefiting charities or employees and requires unions to report political contributions to the Fair Political Practices Commission. Fiscal impacts are probably minor state and local government costs and would potentially be offset from fines and fees. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 75? 58% yes 33 no 9 don't know - 22 - [rotate questions 18 and 19] 18. Do you approve or disapprove of placing restrictions on the ability of labor unions to contribute to political candidates and ballot initiatives? 55% approve 38 disapprove 7 don't know 19. Do you approve or disapprove of placing restrictions on the ability of business corporations to contribute to political candidates and ballot initiatives? 61% approve 31 disapprove 8 don't know 20. Proposition 76 is called the "State Spending and School Funding Limits Initiative Constitutional Amendment." It limits state spending to the prior year's level plus three years' average revenue growth. It changes state minimum school funding requirements under Proposition 98. It permits the governor, under specified circumstances, to reduce budget appropriations of the governor's choosing. State spending is likely to be reduced relative to current law, due to the additional spending limit and new powers granted to the governor. Reductions could apply to schools and shift costs to other local governments. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 76? 28% yes 61 no 11 don't know 21. In terms of dealing with future state budget conditions, how important is it whether Proposition 76 passes— very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 41% very important 29 somewhat important 9 not too important 12 not at all important 9 don't know 22. Proposition 77 is called the "Reapportionment Initiative Constitutional Amendment." It amends the state Constitution's process for redistricting California's Senate, Assembly, Congressional, and Board of Equalization districts. It requires a three-member panel of retired judges selected by legislative leaders. The one-time state redistricting costs total no more than 1.5 million dollars and county costs are in the range of 1 million dollars. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 77? 34% yes 49 no 17 don't know - 23 - 23. If voting districts were redrawn by an independent panel of judges, do you think California would generally have Congressional and state legislators who more effectively represent their districts than legislators do today, or not? 46% yes, would represent more effectively 35 no, would not represent more effectively 19 don't know 24. Changing topics, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling his job as president of the United States? 38% approve 58 disapprove 4 don't know [rotate questions 25 and 26] 25. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling the situation in Iraq? 31% approve 65 disapprove 4 don't know 26. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling terrorism and homeland security issues? 46% approve 49 disapprove 5 don't know 27. In general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq—very well, somewhat well, not too well, or not at all well? 6% very well 24 somewhat well 27 not too well 40 not at all well 3 don't know 28. All in all, do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq, or not? 31% worth it 64 not worth it 5 don't know 29. Do you think the war in Iraq has helped the war on terrorism, or has it hurt the war on terrorism? 33% helped 56 hurt 11 don't know August 2005 30. How worried are you that there will soon be another terrorist attack in the United States—very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not at all worried? 27% very worried 41 somewhat worried 21 not too worried 10 not at all worried 1 don't know 31. What concerns you more about the government's antiterrorism policies [rotate] (1) that they have not gone far enough to protect the country [or] (2) that they have gone too far in restricting the average person's civil liberties? 46% not gone far enough 36 gone too far 11 neither (volunteered) 7 don't know 32. How much of a problem is terrorism and homeland security in California today? Is it a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem? 29% big problem 39 somewhat of a problem 28 not much of a problem 4 don't know On another topic… [rotate questions 33 to 36] 33. In 1973, the Roe versus Wade decision established a woman's constitutional right to an abortion, at least in the first three months of pregnancy. Would you like to see the Supreme Court completely overturn the Roe versus Wade decision, or not? 24% yes, overturn Roe versus Wade 70 no, not overturn Roe versus Wade 6 don't know 34. Do you favor or oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to be legally married? 44% favor 48 oppose 8 don't know 35. Do you approve or disapprove of a display of a monument to the Ten Commandments in a public school or government building? 60% approve 34 disapprove 6 don't know 36. Do you favor or oppose a constitutional amendment that would allow Congress and state governments to make it illegal to burn the American flag? 47% favor constitutional amendment 48 oppose constitutional amendment 5 don't know 37. On another topic, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job? 52% approve 33 disapprove 15 don't know 38. As you may know, George W. Bush has nominated federal judge John Roberts to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court. Do you think the U.S. Senate should or should not confirm Roberts's nomination to the Supreme Court? 49% should confirm 24 should not confirm 27 don't know 39. Given what you know, do you think Roberts is [rotate 1 and 2 randomly] (1) a more conservative nominee than you would have liked [or] (2) a less conservative nominee than you would have liked, [or] (3) about right? 29% more conservative 10 less conservative 38 about right 23 don't know 40. Next, how much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Sacramento to do what is right—just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time? 5% just about always 25 most of the time 62 only some of the time 5 none of the time (volunteered) 3 don't know 41. Would you say the state government is pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves, or that it is run for the benefit of all of the people? 65% a few big interests 26 benefit of all of the people 9 don't know - 24 - 42. Do you think the people in state government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes, waste some of it, or don't waste very much of it? 61% a lot 31 some 6 don't waste very much 2 don't know 43. On another topic, in California state government today, which of the following do you think has the most influence over public policy—[rotate] (1) the governor, (2) the legislature, [or] (3) initiatives on the state ballot? 34% the governor 35 the legislature 19 initiatives on the state ballot 2 other answer (specify) 10 don't know California uses the direct initiative process, which enables voters to bypass the legislature and have issues put on the ballot as state propositions for voter approval or rejection. 44. In general, do you think it is a good thing or a bad thing that a majority of voters can make laws and change public policies by passing initiatives? 68% good thing 24 bad thing 2 other (volunteered) 6 don't know 45. Overall, do you think public policy decisions made through the initiative process by California voters are probably better or probably worse than public policy decisions made by the governor and state legislature? 57% probably better 25 probably worse 6 same (volunteered) 12 don't know 46. Generally speaking, would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, or not satisfied with the way the initiative process is working in California today? 10% very satisfied 58 somewhat satisfied 26 not satisfied 6 don't know 47. On another topic, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote? 78% yes [ask q 48] 22 no [skip to q 49a] 48. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or as an independent? 43% Democrat [skip to q 49b] 34 Republican [skip to q 49c] 4 another party (specify) [skip to q 50] 19 independent [ask q 49a] 49a.Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party? 25% Republican party 43 Democratic party 23 neither (volunteered) 9 don't know [go to q 50] 49b.Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 54% strong 45 not very strong 1 don't know [go to q 50] 49c.Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 52% strong 44 not very strong 4 don't know 50. On another topic, would you consider yourself to be politically: [rotate list as a set, starting from either the top or the bottom; read list] 10% very liberal 22 somewhat liberal 31 middle-of-the-road 25 somewhat conservative 10 very conservative 2 don't know 51. Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics-a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 24% great deal 44 fair amount 25 only a little 6 none 1 don't know [52–70: background and demographic questions] - 25 - August 2005 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Advisory Committee Angela Blackwell Founder and CEO PolicyLink Paul Brest President The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Mollyann Brodie Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley James E. Canales President The James Irvine Foundation Matthew K. Fong President Strategic Advisory Group William Hauck President California Business Roundtable Dennis A. Hunt Vice President Communications and Public Affairs The California Endowment Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Carol S. Larson President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Monica Lozano Publisher and CEO La Opinión Donna Lucas Deputy Chief of Staff Office of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger Mark Paul Deputy Treasurer California Treasurer Phil Angelides Dan Rosenheim News Director KPIX-TV Carol Stogsdill President Stogsdill Consulting Cathy Taylor Vice President and Editorial Commentary Director Orange County Register Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. - 26 - PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA Board of Directors Thomas C. Sutton, Chair Chairman and CEO Pacific Life Insurance Company Edward K. Hamilton Chairman Hamilton, Rabinovitz & Alschuler, Inc. Gary K. Hart Founder Institute for Education Reform California State University, Sacramento Arjay Miller Dean Emeritus Graduate School of Business Stanford University Ki Suh Park Design and Managing Partner Gruen Associates Constance L. Rice Co-Director The Advancement Project Walter B. Hewlett Director Center for Computer Assisted Research in the Humanities David W. Lyon President and CEO Public Policy Institute of California Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center Cheryl White Mason Vice-President Litigation Legal Department Hospital Corporation of America Advisory Council Clifford W. Graves General Manager Community Development Department City of Los Angeles Daniel A. Mazmanian C. Erwin and Ione Piper Dean and Professor School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Elizabeth G. Hill Legislative Analyst State of California Dean Misczynski Director California Research Bureau Hilary W. Hoynes Associate Professor Department of Economics University of California, Davis Andrés E. Jiménez Director California Policy Research Center University of California Office of the President Norman R. King Executive Director San Bernardino Associated Governments Robin M. Kramer Senior Director The Broad Foundation Rudolf Nothenberg Chief Administrative Officer (Retired) City and County of San Francisco Manuel Pastor Professor, Latin American & Latino Studies University of California, Santa Cruz Peter Schrag Contributing Editor The Sacramento Bee James P. Smith Senior Economist RAND Corporation PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 800 O San Francisco, California 94111 Phone: (415) 291-4400 O Fax: (415) 291-4401 www.ppic.org O info@ppic.org" } ["___content":protected]=> string(102) "

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" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(134) "https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-special-survey-on-californians-and-the-initiative-process-august-2005/s_805mbs/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(8497) ["ID"]=> int(8497) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:38:08" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(3709) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(8) "S 805MBS" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(8) "s_805mbs" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(12) "S_805MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(7) "1385420" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(94814) "PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY AUGUST 2005 Public Policy Institute of California Special Survey on Californians and the Initiative Process in collaboration with The James Irvine Foundation ○○○○○ Mark Baldassare Research Director & Survey Director The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) is a private operating foundation established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. The Institute is dedicated to improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. PPIC’s research agenda focuses on three program areas: population, economy, and governance and public finance. Studies within these programs are examining the underlying forces shaping California’s future, cutting across a wide range of public policy concerns, including education, health care, immigration, income distribution, welfare, urban growth, and state and local finance. PPIC was created because three concerned citizens – William R. Hewlett, Roger W. Heyns, and Arjay Miller – recognized the need for linking objective research to the realities of California public policy. Their goal was to help the state’s leaders better understand the intricacies and implications of contemporary issues and make informed public policy decisions when confronted with challenges in the future. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. David W. Lyon is founding President and Chief Executive Officer of PPIC. Thomas C. Sutton is Chair of the Board of Directors. Public Policy Institute of California 500 Washington Street, Suite 800 • San Francisco, California 94111 Telephone: (415) 291-4400 • Fax: (415) 291-4401 info@ppic.org • www.ppic.org Preface The PPIC Statewide Survey series provides policymakers, the media, and the general public with objective, advocacy-free information on the perceptions, opinions, and public policy preferences of California residents. Inaugurated in April 1998, the survey series has generated a database that includes the responses of more than 120,000 Californians. The current survey is the first in a series of three special surveys on Californians and the Initiative Process, supported by funding from The James Irvine Foundation. On November 8th, California voters will have the opportunity to participate in a special election. The state ballot will not include candidates but will present eight citizens’ initiatives on a wide range of topics. The last statewide special election was held in 2003, recalling the governor, and before that, there were three proposition-only special elections in 1973, 1979, and 1993. The three special surveys we are conducting in August, September, and October are designed to provide information on Californians’ attitudes toward the citizens’ initiative process, their reactions to the special election and its state ballot measures, and the role of government distrust in shaping public opinion about the legislative process, the initiative process, and fiscal and governance reforms. This survey series seeks to raise public awareness, inform decisionmakers, and stimulate public discussions about the state’s system of governance, the initiative process, and fiscal and governance reforms. This report presents the responses of 2,004 adult residents throughout the state on a wide range of issues: • The November special election, including interest in the election and specific ballot measures and awareness of election news, voter support and underlying attitudes toward the state ballot measures on parental notification of abortion (Proposition 73), teacher tenure and dismissal (Proposition 74), public employee union dues and political contributions (Proposition 75), state spending and school funding limits (Proposition 76), and reapportionment (Proposition 77). • State issues, including overall approval ratings for Governor Schwarzenegger and approval ratings on his handling of governance reforms and budget issues, overall approval ratings for the legislature and the specific legislators representing the local legislative district, general direction of the state and outlook for the state’s economy, trust in state government officials in Sacramento, and general attitudes toward the citizens’ initiative process in California. • National issues, including overall approval ratings for President Bush and approval ratings for the president on his handling of the situation in Iraq and homeland security; attitudes regarding U.S. military involvement in Iraq and U.S. homeland security; policy preferences on social issues such as abortion restrictions, same-sex marriage, religious displays in public buildings, and a constitutional amendment on flag burning; and opinions about the Supreme Court. • The extent to which Californians – based on their party affiliation, demographics, race/ethnicity, and region of residence – may differ with regard to attitudes toward the initiative process, the November 8th special election and its specific ballot measures, and governance and fiscal reforms. This is the 58th PPIC Statewide Survey, which has included a number of special editions on the Central Valley (11/99, 3/01, 4/02, 4/03, 4/04), Los Angeles County (3/03, 3/04, 3/05), Orange County (9/01, 12/02, 12/03, 12/04), San Diego County (7/02), population growth (5/01), land use (11/01, 11/02), housing (11/04), the environment (6/00, 6/02, 7/03, 11/03, 7/04, 7/05), the state budget (6/03, 1/04, 5/04, 1/05, 5/05), and California’s future (8/04). Copies of this report may be ordered by e-mail (order@ppic.org) or phone (415-291-4400). Copies of this and earlier reports are posted on the publications page of the PPIC web site (www.ppic.org). For questions about the survey, please contact survey@ppic.org. -i- - ii - Contents Preface Press Release Special Election State Issues National Issues Survey Methodology Survey Questions and Results Survey Advisory Committee i v 1 7 13 19 21 26 - iii - Press Release Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: http://www.ppic.org/main/pressreleaseindex.asp SPECIAL SURVEY ON CALIFORNIANS AND THE INITIATIVE PROCESS BAD TIME FOR THE BALLOT BOX: CALIFORNIANS DISAPPROVE OF SPECIAL ELECTION, SCHWARZENEGGER, STATE GOVERNMENT Commitment to Initiative Process Not Enough To Overcome Distaste for November Election SAN FRANCISCO, California, August 25, 2005 — Californians’ steadfast endorsement of the initiative process is not triggering support for this fall’s initiative-focused special election – nor for the man who called it, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Among Californians who are most likely to vote in November, support for the once-popular governor, and the propositions he is backing, ranges from shaky to poor, according to a new survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. A majority of likely voters across age, income, education, racial and ethnic groups, and in every region of the state, oppose holding a special election this fall and would prefer to shelve the ballot measures until the state’s next scheduled election in 2006. Only 36 percent believe it’s better to hold the special election; 60 percent say it’s better to wait. Even among registered Republicans, holding a special election has a bare majority of support (52%) and substantial opposition (41%). Democrats (76%) are overwhelmingly against holding the election, as are a majority of independents (56%). Negative attitudes toward the election seem to extend to measures supported by the governor; and in opposing them, voters are rejecting key components of the overall reform agenda Schwarzenegger has proposed: • Teacher tenure (Proposition 74) – Likely voters are split over whether or not to increase probationary periods for public school teachers (49% support, 42% oppose, 9% undecided) – despite the fact that 75 percent say poor teacher performance is at least somewhat of a problem in the state. • Spending and funding limits (Proposition 76) – The measure to limit state spending and change school funding requirements is behind by a large margin (61% oppose, 28% support, 11% undecided). • Redistricting (Proposition 77) – More voters oppose (49%) rather than support (34%) the proposal to have a panel of retired judges rather than lawmakers draw legislative districts. However, a hefty 17 percent remain undecided. “None of the propositions favored by the governor’s administration are inspiring much passion or enthusiasm among voters,” says PPIC survey director Mark Baldassare. “With little connecting them to this election, support for the entire enterprise is low.” But that doesn’t mean voters are not paying attention: Two-thirds (68%) say they are either very closely or fairly closely following election-related news. Still, this represents a much lower level of interest than voters had in the August 2003 recall election (89%). One telling sign of special election discontent? When asked which ballot issue was most important to them, more likely voters (16%) volunteered the answer “none” than named any one measure. Of the propositions included in this survey, only Proposition 75, which requires employees’ consent to use union dues for political contributions – and is not part of Schwarzenegger’s reform agenda – currently has majority support. Over half (58%) of likely voters favor the measure, with strong support from Republicans (72%) and independents (64%) and measured support from Democrats (46%). -v- Press Release The Irresistible Initiative? Although many would just as soon forgo November’s initiative fest, Californians of all ages, political persuasions, regions of the state, and racial/ethnic groups are still committed to the initiative process. Well over half (57%) say policies made by citizens’ initiatives are better than those made by state lawmakers, while one-quarter (25%) say they are worse. Nevertheless, there are misgivings about how the initiative process actually works. Only one in ten residents say they are very satisfied with the way the initiative process is working in the state, while one in four say they are not satisfied (58% are somewhat satisfied). “Because Californians support the idea of making public policy at the ballot box doesn’t mean they like the way the process is working,” says Baldassare. “Their support for direct democracy needs to be balanced with their concerns in thinking about the future of ballot-box policymaking in the state.” California’s faith in the initiative shouldn’t be too surprising, given residents’ patent distrust of state government: Only 30 percent say they trust the government to do what is right just about always or most of the time – a scant improvement from the historic 27 percent low the PPIC Statewide Survey registered in the week before the 2003 recall election. Feeding the distrust are highly negative impressions about who runs the state – and how. Two-thirds (65%) of Californians believe that Sacramento is run by a few big interests rather than for the benefit of the people. And in another sign of dissatisfaction, more adults (61%) now believe the state government wastes a lot of taxpayer money than at any time since PPIC first asked this question in January 2001. The Higher They Climb… Schwarzenegger’s Dwindling Approval So how is the governor faring, given the sour mood? Heading into an election that bears heavily on the future of his political career, Governor Schwarzenegger’s approval ratings are at a low point. Currently, over half (54%) of Californians disapprove of the way he is handling his job, while only one-third (34%) approve (among likely voters, 50% disapprove, 41% approve). In his effort to reform state government, the governor receives similarly poor reviews – 35 percent approve but 50 percent disapprove of his performance. This is a sharp decline from earlier this year when 58 percent approved and only 30 percent disapproved of his reform efforts (see PPIC Statewide Survey, January 2005). Among residents, Latinos are especially negative in their assessment of the governor’s overall performance (73% disapprove, 17% approve). And overall, nearly six in 10 Californians say the state is generally going in the wrong direction. Bush Report Card: Low Marks for Iraq, High Marks for Supreme Court Nominee The governor is not the only one feeling heat from state residents. President Bush’s job approval ratings remain at the same low level they have been for the past year (58% disapprove, 38% approve). And the war in Iraq is very likely a contributing factor: Only three in 10 Californians approve of the president’s handling of the Iraq situation – a 24-point drop from the 55 percent approval rating he received in the prewar days of September 2002. Californians are generally pessimistic about the war, with a mere 6 percent saying things are going very well, 24 percent saying they are going somewhat well, and 67 percent saying they are not going too well or not going well at all. Moreover, only one-third (33%) of residents believe the war has helped in the fight against terrorism, although they give President Bush mixed ratings in his handling of terrorism and homeland security issues (46% approve, 49% disapprove). In contrast, President Bush’s nomination of Judge John Roberts to the U.S. Supreme Court has generated considerable support in the state. Far more Californians favor (49%) rather than oppose (24%) Judge Roberts’ confirmation – and when asked about his ideology, more residents say his ideas are about right (38%), than those who say they are too conservative (29%), or those who say they are not conservative enough (10%). Indeed, when it comes to the nation’s highest court, across California’s political spectrum, voters who are often at odds show striking agreement in their favorable view (52% of Democrats, and 53% of Republicans and independents approve of the job the Supreme Court is doing). - vi - Press Release On Social Issues Partisanship Persists However, when turning to social issues related to family, religious, patriotic, and moral beliefs, partisan division revives with a vengeance. And the special election is not exempt. Proposition 73, which requires doctors to notify parents when a minor seeks an abortion, is deeply dividing California’s likely voters, with 48 percent opposing and 44 percent supporting the measure. Democrats are responsible for most of the opposition (60% oppose, 34% support), while Republicans account for most of the support (61% support, 31% oppose). Independents are closely split (45% support, 47% oppose). In an exceptional area of agreement on abortion issues, strong majorities of California’s Democrats (81%), independents (75%), and Republicans (60%) oppose overturning Roe versus Wade. On other social issues, voters are also divided along party lines. When it comes to same-sex marriage, independents and Democrats (both 56%) favor the right of same-sex couples to be legally married, compared to just 24 percent of Republicans. And while Republicans strongly favor (61%) a constitutional amendment making it illegal to burn the American flag, neither Democrats (42%) nor independents (44%) give the idea – which has passed the U.S. House of Representatives – majority support. More Key Findings • Where the power really lies… (page 7) Heavy use of the initiative in California hasn’t changed beliefs about who holds the reins of power: More residents think the governor (34%) and the state legislature (35%) have the most influence in making public policy decisions than think initiatives are most influential (19%). • Trust issue worse among voters (page 10) Likely voters in California are even less likely than other adults (24% to 30%) to say they trust state government to do what’s right most of the time or just about always. • Most important issue? (page 12) The economy, jobs, and unemployment top Californian’s list (20%) of the most important problems facing the state today, followed by education and schools (15%) and immigration (9%). About the Survey This survey on the initiative process and special election – made possible by funding from The James Irvine Foundation – is a special edition of the PPIC Statewide Survey. This is the first in a series of three surveys designed to provide information about Californians attitudes toward the state’s initiative process and this November’s special election. Findings of this survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,004 California adult residents interviewed between August 8 and August 15, 2005. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The sampling error for the total sample is +/- 2%. The sampling error for subgroups is larger. For more information on methodology, see page 19. Mark Baldassare is research director at PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has directed since 1998. His recent book, A California State of Mind: The Conflicted Voter in a Changing World, is available at www.ppic.org. PPIC is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to improving public policy through objective, nonpartisan research on the economic, social, and political issues that affect Californians. The institute was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. This report will appear on PPIC’s website (www.ppic.org) on August 25. ### - vii - Proposition 73: Waiting Period and Parental Notification Before Termination of a Minor's Pregnancy 8 Proposition 74: Public School Teachers Waiting Period for Permanent Status and Dismissal 9 44 42 48 49 Likely voters Yes No Don't know Likely voters Yes No Don't know Proposition 75: Public Employee Union Dues, Restrictions on Political Contributions, Employee Consent Requirement 9 Proposition 76: State Spending and School Funding Limits 11 28 33 58 61 Likely voters Yes No Don't know Proposition 77: Reapportionment 17 34 Likely voters Yes No Don't know Approval Ratings of Elected Officials 38 34 27 49 Percent all adults 10 20 30 40 50 Likely voters Yes No Don't know 0 President Governor Legislature Special Election Special Election in 2005 California voters who are most likely to vote in elections continue to express little enthusiasm for the November special election that Governor Schwarzenegger has called to pass his reform initiatives. Six in 10 likely voters would prefer to wait until the next statewide election in June 2006, while 36 percent think it is better to hold a special election later this year. Support for a special election among likely voters is similar today to support in July and May (33%) but has dropped by 8 points since January (44%). In all regions of the state, and across age, education, income, and racial/ethnic categories, a majority of likely voters oppose the special election. Democrats and independents would prefer to wait until June 2006, while a majority of Republicans would like to hold the election this fall. Liberals and moderates are strongly opposed to the special election (77% and 62%, respectively), while 53 percent of conservatives favor it. Sixty-three percent of those who approve of the governor’s performance in office support his special election proposal. However, of those who disapprove of the governor’s performance, 82 percent prefer to wait until the next scheduled statewide election. Still, the special election has caught the attention of two in three likely voters, who say that they are very closely or fairly closely following the news about this topic. Interest is similarly high across regions of the state and partisan groups; however, the percentage of likely voters closely following this issue is much higher today among college graduates (79%) than among those with no college education (40%) and also higher among whites (70%) than Latinos (56%). Interest in news about the special election (68%) is currently much lower than interest in the presidential election in August 2004 or the governor’s recall in August 2003 (89% each). “Governor Schwarzenegger has called a special election in November 2005 to vote on budget, educational, and governmental reform measures. Do you think it is better to have a special election later this year, or is it better to have waited until the next scheduled statewide election in June 2006? Likely Voters Only Better to have a special election Better to have waited until scheduled election in 2006 Don't know All Likely Voters 36% 60 4 Party Dem Rep 20% 52% 76 41 47 Ind 44% 56 0 Central Valley 38% 60 2 Region SF Bay Area 28% Los Angeles 36% Other Southern California 40% 69 58 36 54 6 “How closely are you following news about the special election on November 8th?” Likely Voters Only Very closely Fairly closely Not too closely Not at all closely Don't know All Likely Voters 21% 47 23 8 1 Dem 21% 46 25 8 0 Party Rep 20% 46 26 8 0 Ind 20% 53 16 11 0 -1- Central Valley 18% 53 22 7 0 Region SF Bay Area 19% 56 16 8 1 Los Angeles 22% 41 27 10 0 Other Southern California 25% 44 24 6 1 Special Election Proposition 73: Parental Notification Before Termination of Minor’s Pregnancy With the special election just three months away, voters are divided about a citizens’ initiative, Proposition 73, that would require doctors to notify parents when a minor seeks an abortion: 48 percent would vote no on Proposition 73, while 44 percent would vote yes, when they are read the ballot measure. There are sharp partisan differences in response to Proposition 73. Six in 10 Republicans support the measure, while a similar proportion of Democrats are opposed; independents are divided (45% yes, 47% no). Supporters outnumber opponents in the Central Valley and Other Southern California, while Los Angeles voters are divided and a majority of San Francisco Bay Area voters are opposed. Two in three conservatives would vote yes, while three in four liberals would vote no. Women are more likely than men to oppose Proposition 73 (51% to 46%). Opposition is similar among Latinos (47%) and whites (49%). Voters with children currently living at home are slightly more likely than those without children to say they would vote yes (47% to 43%). Among voters who frequently attend religious services, support for Proposition 73 stands at 59 percent. Opposition to the proposition tends to increase with education and income, while support for the measure increases with age. Among 18 to 34 year olds, 35 percent would vote yes and 61 percent would vote no. Eight in 10 likely voters say the outcome of the vote on this measure is important to them, including half who say it is very important. Women (58%) are more likely than men (41%), and Democrats (55%) are more likely than Republicans (44%) and independents (46%), to say that the outcome of Proposition 73 at the ballot box is very important to them. Among likely voters who frequently attend religious services, 60 percent consider the outcome of Proposition 73 of great importance. Although both supporters and opponents of Proposition 73 consider the outcome important, those who would currently vote yes on the proposition are slightly more likely than those who would vote no to say that the outcome is very important (54% to 50%). “Proposition 73 is called the Waiting Period and Parental Notification Before Termination of Minor's Pregnancy Initiative Constitutional Amendment.... If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on Proposition 73?”* Likely Voters Only Yes No Don't know All Likely Voters 44% 48 8 Party Dem 34% 60 6 Rep 61% 31 8 Ind 45% 47 8 Central Valley 50% 43 7 Region SF Bay Los Area Angeles Other Southern California 33% 46% 50% 61 46 43 68 7 “How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 73?” Likely Voters Only Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Don't know All Likely Voters 50% 33 10 4 3 Proposition 73 Yes No 54% 35 9 2 0 50% 31 11 6 2 * For complete question wording, see question 13 in the survey questionnaire, page 22. -2- Special Election Proposition 74: Teachers Waiting Period for Permanent Status and Dismissal One of the ballot initiatives supported by the governor, Proposition 74, would increase the probationary period for public school teachers from two to five years and modify the process by which school boards can dismiss an employee with two consecutive unsatisfactory performance evaluations. When read the ballot language describing Proposition 74, 49 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes and 42 percent say they would vote no on the measure if the election were held today. While a majority of Democrats would vote no, a majority of Republicans would vote yes, and more independents would vote yes than no on the initiative (49% to 41%). Similarly, 66 percent of conservatives say they would vote yes, and 57 percent of liberals say they would vote no. Seventy percent of those who approve of the governor’s performance in office favor this ballot measure, while 58 percent of those who disapprove of his performance say they oppose it. Support for Proposition 74 increases with age and income and is somewhat higher among whites (50%) than Latinos (46%). Three in four voters say that poor teacher performance is at least somewhat of a problem in the state’s public schools, while 36 percent rate it as a big problem. Republicans (44%), conservatives (42%), and voters who approve of the governor’s performance (45%) are among the most likely to rate this issue as a big problem. At the same time, Democrats (31%), liberals (28%), and those who disapprove of the governor’s performance (30%) are among the least likely to rate poor teacher performance as a major problem. Latinos (43%) are more likely than whites (33%), and those with incomes under $40,000 (40%) are more likely than those with incomes of $80,000 or more (30%), to rate poor teacher performance as a big problem. Among those who would vote yes on Proposition 74, nine in 10 rate poor teacher performance as at least somewhat of a problem, and half say it is a big problem. Those who are inclined to vote against the measure are much less likely to rate poor teacher performance as a big problem in the public schools. “Proposition 74 is called the Public School Teachers Waiting Period for Permanent Status and Dismissal Initiative…. If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on Proposition 74?”* Likely Voters Only Yes No Don't know All Likely Voters 49% 42 9 Dem 38% 54 8 Party Rep 63% 26 11 Central Ind Valley 49% 48% 41 44 10 8 Region SF Bay Los Area Angeles 45% 48% 47 44 88 Other Southern California 57% 35 8 “Do you think that poor teacher performance is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem in California's public schools today?” Likely Voters Only Big problem Somewhat of a problem Not much of a problem Not at all a problem (volunteered) Don't know All Likely Voters 36% 39 19 2 4 Proposition 74 Yes 50% 41 7 1 1 No 22% 38 34 2 4 * For complete question wording, see question 15 in the survey questionnaire, page 22. -3- August 2005 Special Election Proposition 75: Public Employee Union Dues and Political Contributions Proposition 75 would prohibit using public employee union dues for political contributions without individual employees’ prior consent. The proposition is currently favored by 58 percent of likely voters and opposed by 33 percent. Republicans (72%) and independents (64%) strongly support Proposition 75, while Democrats are currently divided (46% favor, 42% oppose). The measure is favored by a majority of likely voters in all regions; however, support is lower in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area than in other regions. Support for the proposition tends to increase with education and income, and the measure is equally favored by white and Latino voters (59% each). More generally, California’s likely voters endorse the idea of restricting union funding of political causes (55% approve, 38% disapprove). A majority of Republicans and independents favor such restrictions, while Democrats are divided. Likely voters also support restrictions on corporate contributions to political causes (61% yes; 31% no), with a majority across political parties favoring the idea. Likely voters who would vote yes on Proposition 75 if the special election were held today clearly favor restrictions on both unions (70%) and businesses (67%). In our May 1998 survey, similar questions elicited majority support in favor of restricting contributions to candidates and ballot initiatives by unions (50%) and corporations (55%). “Proposition 75 is called the Public Employee Union Dues, Restrictions on Political Contributions, Employee Consent Requirement Initiative…. If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on Proposition 75?”* Likely Voters Only Yes No Don't know All Likely Voters 58% 33 9 Party Dem 46% 42 12 Rep 72% 20 8 Region Central Ind Valley 64% 64% 28 30 86 SF Bay Los Area Angeles 58% 54% 37 36 5 10 Other Southern California 62% 28 10 “Do you approve or disapprove of placing restrictions on the ability of labor unions to contribute to political candidates and ballot initiatives?” Likely Voters Only Approve Disapprove Don't know All Likely Voters 55% 38 7 Dem 47% 46 7 Party Rep 67% 28 5 Ind 54% 38 8 “Do you approve or disapprove of placing restrictions on the ability of business corporations to contribute to political candidates and ballot initiatives?” Likely Voters Only Approve Disapprove Don't know All Likely Voters 61% 31 8 Dem 59% 35 6 Party Rep 62% 30 8 Ind 63% 29 8 * For complete question wording, see question 17 in the survey questionnaire, page 22. -4- Special Election Proposition 76: State Spending and School Funding Limits Another initiative favored by the governor, Proposition 76, would limit state spending to the prior year’s level plus three years’ average revenue growth. This measure would also change the minimum school funding requirements passed by the voters in Proposition 98 and permit the governor, under some conditions, to reduce budget appropriations of the governor’s choosing. When likely voters are read the ballot language describing Proposition 76, 61 percent say they would vote no, and 28 percent say they would vote yes, if the election were held today. Republicans favor this measure (49% to 38%), while majorities of Democrats (79%) and independents (59%) are opposed to it. Voter opposition to the state spending and school funding limits is currently strongest in the San Francisco Bay Area. Among those who approve of the governor’s performance in office, 56 percent say they would vote yes, while 85 percent of those who disapprove of his performance say they would vote no. Support for Proposition 76 tends to increase slightly with age, education, and income, and it is higher among whites (32%) than Latinos (17%) and among homeowners (29%) than renters (23%). Still, voter support for Proposition 76 currently falls well short of a majority in all racial/ethnic and demographic groups. While seven in 10 say that the outcome of the vote on Proposition 76 is at least somewhat important in terms of dealing with future budget situations, this widely held perception is not, at this time, strongly related to voter support for the initiative. Two in three inclined to vote no on this ballot measure say that the outcome will be at least somewhat important when it comes to dealing with future budget situations, with 40 percent rating the outcome as very important. Nearly all who are inclined to vote yes today rate the outcome on Proposition 76 as at least somewhat important for future budget situations. Moreover, Republicans and Democrats, and liberals and conservatives, are fairly similar in their views that the outcome of the Proposition 76 vote will be very important in future budget situations. “Proposition 76 is called the State Spending and School Funding Limits Initiative Constitutional Amendment…. If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on Proposition 76?”* Likely Voters Only Yes No Don't know All Likely Voters 28% 61 11 Party Dem 13% 79 8 Rep 49% 38 13 Ind 27% 59 14 Central Valley 33% 58 9 Region Other SF Bay Los Southern Area Angeles California 23% 69 25% 61 34% 54 8 14 12 “In terms of dealing with future state budget conditions, how important is it whether Proposition 76 passes?” Likely Voters Only Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Don't know All Likely Voters 41% 29 9 12 9 Proposition 76 Yes 53% 40 3 2 2 No 40% 25 13 18 4 * For complete question wording, see question 20 in the survey questionnaire, page 23. -5- August 2005 Special Election Proposition 77: Reapportionment Proposition 77—a citizens’ initiative supported by Governor Schwarzenegger—would take the responsibility of redistricting California’s Senate, Assembly, Congressional, and Board of Equalization districts out of the hands of the governor and state legislature and give it instead to a three-member panel of retired judges selected by legislative leaders. When read the ballot language describing this initiative, 34 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes on this measure if the election were held today, and 49 percent say they would vote no; seventeen percent remained undecided. Half of Republicans would vote yes, while about six in 10 Democrats would vote no; independents are also inclined to vote no on the measure (30% yes, 50% no, 20% don’t know). At this time, support for Proposition 77 falls below 40 percent in all of the state’s major regions. Those who say they approve of the governor’s performance in office tend to support Proposition 77 (55% yes, 27% no), while those who disapprove of the governor’s performance tend to oppose the measure (18% yes, 69% no). Similarly, those who favor a special election support Proposition 77 (53% yes, 29% no), while those against a special election tend to oppose it (24% yes, 62% no). Forty-six percent of likely voters believe they would have Congressional and state legislators who would more effectively represent their districts if the voting districts were redrawn by an independent panel of judges. Among those who would vote yes on Proposition 77, eight in 10 believe that the redistricting process called for in Proposition 77 would provide them with more effective representatives than they have today. Among those who have currently decided to vote no on the proposition, only about one in four believes that an independent panel of judges would bring about more effective legislators. The perception that an independent panel of judges would result in more effective legislators is most strongly held by Republicans (54%), conservatives (57%), those who approve of the governor’s performance (59%), and those who are in favor of having a special election this year (59%). “Proposition 77 is called the Reapportionment Initiative Constitutional Amendment…. If the election were held today would you vote yes or no on Proposition 77?”* Likely Voters Only Yes No Don't know All Likely Voters 34% 49 17 Party Dem 22% 62 16 Rep 51% 31 18 Ind 30% 50 20 Central Valley 35% 52 13 Region SF Bay Los Area Angeles Other Southern California 39% 32% 36% 48 51 44 13 17 20 “If voting districts were redrawn by an independent panel of judges, do you think California would generally have Congressional and state legislators who more effectively represent their districts than legislators do today, or not?” Likely Voters Only Yes, would represent more effectively No, would not represent more effectively Don't know All Likely Voters 46% 35 19 Proposition 77 Yes 82% 11 7 No 26% 59 15 * For complete question wording, see question 22 in the survey questionnaire, page 23. -6- State Issues Citizens’ Initiative Process As Californians head to a November special election that contains eight initiatives, they are confident in what they are doing. Fifty-seven percent of Californians think that public policy made through the initiative process is probably better than public policy decisions made by the governor and legislature. Only one in four ranks voters’ decisions as probably worse than those made by their elected officials. This perception is largely unchanged over the course of the past five years, and a belief in the advantages of initiatives is widely held across racial/ethnic, age, education, income, and political groups. While a majority of Californians have a favorable impression of making public policy at the ballot box, many also say the initiative process is less than perfect. Only one in 10 is very satisfied with the way that the initiative process is working in California today, while the majority are only somewhat satisfied (58%) and about one in four is not satisfied. Satisfaction with the initiative process is unchanged during the past five years. Republicans, conservatives, and those who approve of the governor’s performance are the least likely to say they are not satisfied with the way the initiative process is working today. Although it is not seen as the most dominant element in making public policy, the initiative process overall is viewed very favorably by the public. Nearly seven in 10 (68%) say it is a good thing that a majority of voters can make laws and change public policies by passing initiatives, while only 24 percent think it is a bad thing. This positive perception of the initiative process is also largely unchanged over the past five years, and it is widely held across political groups, regions of the state, and racial/ethnic groups. Despite their support for the initiative process, Californians think the governor (34%) and the state legislature (35%) have the most influence in making public policy decisions, while about one in five (19%) mentions state ballot initiatives as being influential. A year ago, residents ranked the governor (39%) over the state legislature (31%) as the most influential force in the public policy arena in California. The public’s perception that the legislature has the most policy influence increases with voter registration, frequent voting, age, education, and income. “Overall, do you think public policy decisions made through the initiative process by California voters are probably better or probably worse than public policy decisions made by the governor and state legislature?” Probably better Probably worse Same (volunteered) Don't know All Adults 57% 25 6 12 Dem 54% 30 5 11 Party Rep 64% 18 6 12 Ind 58% 24 8 10 Likely Voters 58% 26 7 9 “Generally speaking, would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, or not satisfied with the way the initiative process is working in California today?” Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Not satisfied Don't know All Adults 10% 58 26 6 Dem 7% 54 34 5 Party Rep 12% 66 17 5 Ind 10% 56 27 7 Likely Voters 9% 60 26 5 -7- State Issues Governor’s Approval Ratings Governor Schwarzenegger’s approval ratings are at a low point heading into the special election. Currently, 34 percent of Californians approve of the way he is handling his job, while 54 percent disapprove. These approval ratings are down sharply from a year ago, when 65 percent approved and 28 percent disapproved of his job performance. How does Governor Schwarzenegger compare with his predecessor? When Gray Davis faced a recall in a special election two years ago, 67 percent disapproved of his performance as governor. Today, the governor’s approval ratings are higher among likely voters (41%). Republicans (69%) are much more likely than Democrats (18%) or independents (38%) to approve of Governor Schwarzenegger’s performance in office. Similarly, the governor’s approval ratings are much higher among conservatives (52%) than moderates (34%) and liberals (16%). Although whites are evenly divided on the governor’s performance (45% approve, 43% disapprove), Latinos are highly negative in their assessments of Governor Schwarzenegger (17% approve, 73% disapprove). Approval ratings for the governor tend to rise with increases in age, education, income, and homeownership. Similarly, 35 percent approve and 50 percent disapprove of the governor’s handling of the issue of reforming California government. The governor’s approval ratings in this area have declined sharply since January (58% approve, 30% disapprove) and May (40% approve, 45% disapprove). Among likely voters, 41 percent approve of his performance in reforming government, while 48 percent say they disapprove. Most Democrats say they disapprove of the governor’s handling of this issue, while most Republicans give him positive marks; independents are divided in their assessments of Schwarzenegger‘s handling of this issue. Fifty-five percent of residents disapprove of the way the governor is handling the state budget and taxes, and only 33 percent say they approve. This is a sharp turnaround from a year ago, when 58 percent approved and 34 percent disapproved of his performance on fiscal issues. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 34% 54 12 Party Dem 18% 72 10 Rep 69% 20 11 Central Ind Valley 38% 39% 50 47 12 14 Region SF Bay Los Area Angeles Other Southern California 27% 31% 40% 59 60 48 14 9 12 Likely Voters 41% 50 9 “Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Schwarzenegger is handling the issue of reforming California government?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 35% 50 15 Party Dem 19% 67 14 Rep 64% 23 13 Central Ind Valley 41% 40% 45 46 14 14 Region SF Bay Los Area Angeles Other Southern California 29% 32% 37% 56 56 46 15 12 17 Likely Voters 41% 48 11 -8- State Issues Legislature’s Approval Ratings The legislature fares even worse than the governor in approval ratings. Only 27 percent of residents approve of the state legislature’s performance, while 56 percent disapprove. This rating is similar to May’s (26% approve, 58% disapprove) and is down significantly from a year ago (42% approve, 45% disapprove). The legislature’s ratings are at the low point reached in August 2003, just before the October 2003 recall election, when 28 percent approved and 58 percent disapproved of its job performance. Likely voters are even more negative than all adult residents, with 64 percent saying they disapprove and 23 percent saying they approve of the overall performance of the legislature. Republicans (61%) and independents (63%) are more negative than Democrats (55%) toward the Democratic-controlled legislature. Majorities across the liberal-to-conservative political spectrum, across regions of the state, and across education and income categories all disapprove of the way that the California legislature is handling its job. When it comes to the specific issue of handling the budget and taxes, the legislature receives ratings that are even lower (62% disapprove, 23% approve) than its overall ratings, and lower than those the governor received on the same issue. The current ratings of the legislature on the budget issue are lower than a year ago (53% disapprove, 35% approve) and nearing their lowest point, in August 2003, which was two months before the October 2003 governor’s recall election. (71% disapprove, 19% approve). However, when asked about the job performance of legislators from their own districts, residents are much more positive. Thirty-eight percent approve and 40 percent disapprove of their own legislators’ performance in office. However, likely voters are more negative in their assessments (44% disapprove, 39% approve), and Democrats are much more likely than Republicans and independents to express approval for their state legislators. Also, approval ratings for local legislators are declining, when compared to May 2005 (47%), October 2004 (49%), and December 2001 (61%). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California legislature is handling its job?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 27% 56 17 Party Dem 29% 55 16 Rep 24% 61 15 Central Ind Valley 24% 30% 63 53 13 17 Region Other SF Bay Los Southern Area Angeles California 26% 29% 24% 59 55 15 16 58 18 Likely Voters 23% 64 13 “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that the state legislators representing your assembly and state senate districts are doing at this time?” Approve Disapprove Mixed (volunteered) Don't know All Adults 38% 40 5 17 Party Dem 46% 36 Rep 34% 46 64 12 16 Central Ind Valley 33% 43% 44 37 Region Other SF Bay Los Southern Area Angeles California 39% 40% 33% 41 39 45 34 5 6 4 20 16 15 15 18 Likely Voters 39% 44 5 12 - 9 - August 2005 State Issues Distrust in State Government Consistent with their doubts about the legislative process and their support for citizens’ initiatives, only 30 percent of Californians say they think they can trust the state government to do what is right just about always or most of the time. The level of distrust in state government is unchanged throughout this year and shows little improvement since a historically low 27 percent in the week before the 2003 recall election. All of these levels of trust in state government are much lower than they were in January 2001 (46%) and January 2002 (47%). Trust in state government fell below 40 percent during the 2002 election. Today, likely voters (24%) are even less inclined than all registered voters (27%) or all adults (30%) to say that they can trust their state government just about always or most of the time. Distrust in state government is consistent across voter groups, with more than six in 10 independents, Republicans, and Democrats saying they can trust the government in Sacramento only some of the time. Distrust tends to increase with age, education, and income categories. Latinos (42%) are much more likely than whites (26%) to say they trust their state government to do what is right at least most of the time. Californians’ distrust of their state government is reflected in their negative impressions of who runs it and how efficiently it operates. Sixty-five percent of residents believe Sacramento is run by a few big interests rather than for the benefit of all the people. The belief that the state government is being run by a few big interests is unchanged since the October 2003 recall (65% in January 2004, 67% in May 2005) and has increased somewhat since the Davis Administration (60% in January 2001; 54% in January 2002). The belief that state government is run by a few big interests is even stronger today among likely voters (71%), and is one widely held among Democrats (71%), independents (69%) and Republicans (65%). Solid majorities across all demographic groups say the state government is run by big interests looking out for themselves, but whites (67%) are more likely than Latinos (58%) to hold this view. Meanwhile, 61 percent of adults believe that the state government wastes a lot of taxpayer money; this is the highest percentage holding this belief since the question was first asked in January 2001. “How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Sacramento to do what is right?” Just about always Most of the time Only some of the time None of the time (volunteered) Don't know All Adults 5% 25 62 5 3 Dem 3% 24 65 5 3 Party Rep 3% 25 64 6 2 Ind 4% 23 64 9 0 Likely Voters 2% 22 69 6 1 “Would you say the state government is pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves, or that it is run for the benefit of all of the people?” A few big interests Benefit of all of the people Don't know All Adults 65% 26 9 Dem 71% 20 9 Party Rep 65% 25 10 Ind 69% 22 9 Likely Voters 71% 21 8 - 10 - State Issues Overall Mood The public’s mood about the state of the state is pessimistic today, with nearly six in 10 Californians (57%) saying that things in the state are generally going in the wrong direction. This outlook is similar to their downbeat view in May (35% right direction, 57% wrong direction); a year ago, residents were divided in their assessment of the state of the state (44% right direction, 42% wrong direction). Before the 2003 recall election, 66 percent of residents said that the state was generally going in the wrong direction. Today, likely voters have a similar outlook (34% right direction, 58% wrong direction) as all adults, while Republicans (49% right direction, 41% wrong direction) are much more upbeat than Democrats (24% right direction, 68% wrong direction) or independents (34% right direction, 56% wrong direction). For those who express approval of the governor, 59 percent say the state is headed in the right direction, while of those who say they disapprove of the governor, 77 percent say it is going in the wrong direction. A majority of residents across the state’s regions, racial/ethnic groups, and age, education, and income categories say that the state is headed in the wrong direction. Moreover, half of residents predict the state will have bad times financially in the next year, while fewer than four in 10 expect good economic times. This view is similar across all regions of the state. This lack of consumer confidence now is similar to May’s (49% bad times, 39% good times) and reflects a more pessimistic view than a year ago (40% bad times, 45% good times). Likely voters now are only slightly more optimistic, with 42 percent expecting good economic times in the state. Republicans (54%) are much more likely than Democrats (29%) and independents (37%) to expect good financial times. Similar to views on the state of the state, 58 percent of those who approve of Governor Schwarzenegger’s job performance expect good economic times, while 64 percent who disapprove of his job performance expect bad economic times. Across the state’s major regions, residents have similarly negative appraisals of the state economic outlook for the next 12 months. “Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?” Right direction Wrong direction Don't know All Adults 34% 57 9 Central Valley 39% 54 7 Region SF Bay Area 34% 59 7 Los Angeles 32% 58 10 Other Southern California 34% 57 9 Likely Voters 34% 58 8 “Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?” Good times Bad times Don't know All Adults 38% 51 11 Central Valley 39% 50 11 Region SF Bay Area 42% 48 10 Los Angeles 36% 53 11 Other Southern California 40% 48 12 Likely Voters 42% 47 11 - 11 - August 2005 State Issues Most Important Problem When asked to name the most important issue facing California, the state’s job market and economic conditions and its education and schools continue to top the list of Californians’ concerns. About one in five residents mentions jobs, the economy, and unemployment, while one in six adults names education and schools. One in 10 residents names legal and illegal immigration as the top issue, while fewer mention crime and gangs, housing costs and availability, state budget and taxes, health care, and gasoline prices. The current rankings are similar to May’s, when Californians named the economy (20%) and schools (19%) as their top concerns, followed by legal and illegal immigration (9%), crime and gangs (8%), and the state budget deficit (7%). Two years ago, in August 2003, 34 percent named the economy as the most important issue, followed by the state budget (12%), and schools and the governor’s recall (11% each), while only 3 percent mentioned immigration as the most important problem facing people in California. In all of the major regions of the state, the economy ranks among the most important issues facing the people of California today. However, there are important regional differences in the mention of other issues. San Francisco Bay Area residents are more likely than others to single out schools, while Los Angeles residents are more likely than others to name crime and gangs, and Other Southern California adults are more likely than others to say that immigration is the state’s top issue. Jobs and the economy are the top issues across racial/ethnic, income, and other demographic groups. Latinos (18%) are more likely than whites (3%) to name crime and gangs as the most important problem, while 17 percent of whites rank schools as their top issue, compared to 10 percent of Latinos. Only 7 percent of Latinos name immigration as the top state issue, compared to 12 percent of whites. State residents who are most likely to vote rank the economy, schools, and immigration as their major concerns. Republicans are more likely than Democrats to name immigration (18% to 5%), while Democrats are more likely than Republicans to name schools (20% to 13%) as the top issue. “Thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today?” Economy, jobs, unemployment Education, schools Immigration, illegal immigration Crime, gangs, drugs Housing costs, availability State budget, deficit, taxes Health care/costs, HMO reform Gasoline prices Other (specify) Don't know All Adults 20% 15 9 8 7 5 4 3 22 7 Central Valley 22% 12 6 7 7 8 3 4 22 9 Region Other SF Bay Los Southern Area Angeles California 22% 19% 18% 22 13 15 6 9 16 5 13 5 96 7 44 7 44 4 33 2 21 22 19 47 7 Likely Voters 19% 17 13 4 6 8 4 3 23 3 - 12 - National Issues President’s Approval Ratings Californians’ negative assessment of state government officials extends to Washington D.C. President Bush’s job approval ratings remain at the same low level they have been for the past year, with only 38 percent of Californians today approving of the way he is handling his job, and 58 percent disapproving. The president’s current approval rating is identical to the one he received in July (38% approve) and is similar to his rating in August 2004 (40% approve). Bush’s approval today is 41 points lower than its high of 79 percent in December 2001. Californians are more negative about the president than are Americans overall, according to August surveys by the Gallup Organization and CBS News/ New York Times, which both found 45 percent of respondents nationwide approving of Bush’s performance. The views of likely voters are similar to those of all Californians, but approval ratings for Bush vary widely by party registration. Eighty-three percent of Democrats disapprove of the president’s performance in office, while 71 percent of Republicans approve. Independents are twice as likely to disapprove than approve (64% to 32%). Bush’s support, however, differs somewhat between Latinos (37%) and whites (42%). Although Bush’s approval ratings are higher in the Central Valley (48%) and Other Southern California (46%) regions than in the San Francisco Bay Area (25%) and in Los Angeles (36%), fewer than half in any region say they approve of the way he is handling his job. On the issue of Iraq, Bush’s ratings remain low, with only three in 10 Californians approving of his handling of the situation there. Bush’s ratings on Iraq are down slightly since January (34% approval), and have dropped 24 points from his 55 percent approval rating in September 2002. Californians are more negative than all Americans, who gave Bush a 39 percent approval rating in a nationwide survey in July by NBC News/Wall Street Journal. Again, most California Democrats (87%) and independents (68%) disapprove of Bush’s performance on Iraq, while two in three Republicans approve. Among likely voters, approval rises slightly to 34 percent. Men are more positive about the president’s handling of the Iraq situation than are women (35% to 28%). While Californians are fairly negative in rating Bush’s handling of the situation in Iraq, they offer a mixed review when asked about terrorism and homeland security (46% approve, 49% disapprove). This is similar to Bush’s approval ratings on this issue in August 2004 (47%) but is down sharply from the high point of 85 percent in January 2002. There are differences by party registration, with Democrats nearly as likely to disapprove of the president’s performance on homeland security (70%) as Republicans are to approve (75%); independents’ responses are more likely to be unfavorable than favorable (57% to 39%). “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that …” George W. Bush is handling his job as president of the United States? President Bush is handling the situation in Iraq? President Bush is handling terrorism and homeland security issues? Approve Disapprove Don't know Approve Disapprove Don't know Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 38% 58 4 31 65 4 46 49 5 Dem 15% 83 2 11 87 2 26 70 4 Party Rep 71% 24 5 64 30 6 75 21 4 Ind 32% 64 4 29 68 3 39 57 4 Likely Voters 39% 58 3 34 64 2 44 52 4 - 13 - National Issues U.S. Efforts in Iraq Californians continue to be very pessimistic about the U.S. situation in Iraq, with only 6 percent saying things are going very well, and four in 10 saying they are going not at all well. These opinions are similar to January’s survey, when 43 percent said things in Iraq were going not at all well for the U.S., and this pessimism has risen markedly since August 2003 (19%). Today, a majority of Democrats (57%) and 41 percent of independents say things are going not at all well for the U.S. in Iraq, while 58 percent of Republicans say things are going at least somewhat well. Pessimism about Iraq is greater in the San Francisco Bay Area and in Los Angeles than elsewhere in the state. Latinos (46%) are more likely than whites (36%) to say that things are going not at all well for the U.S. in Iraq. “In general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq?” Very well Somewhat well Not too well Not at all well Don't know All Adults 6% 24 27 40 3 Dem 2% 13 27 57 1 Party Rep 15% 43 24 15 3 Ind 4% 24 29 41 2 Likely Voters 7% 26 25 41 1 A majority of California’s adults (64%) and likely voters (61%) think that it was not worth going to war in Iraq. While solid majorities of Democrats (81%) and independents (66%) think the war was not worth it, most Republicans (62%) say it was. A majority in all regions of the state now believe that it was not worth going to war in Iraq. Moreover, a majority across racial/ethnic groups also think the war was not worth it, although whites (57%) are less likely than Latinos (72%) to hold this view. According to an August national survey by the CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, Americans in general (44%) are more likely than Californians (31%) to feel that it was worth going to war. Only 33 percent of Californians think the war in Iraq has helped the war on terrorism, while 56 percent think it has hurt it. A majority of Democrats (73%) and independents (57%) feel that the Iraq war has hurt the war on terrorism, while most Republicans (62%) feel it has helped fight terrorism. Latinos (65%) are more likely than whites (49%) to think that the Iraq war has hurt the war on terrorism. Pessimism is greater in the San Francisco Bay Area and in Los Angeles than elsewhere. Californians are even more negative in this view than are Americans nationwide—a July Pew Research Center survey found that 39 percent of Americans think the Iraq war has helped the war on terror. “All in all, do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq, or not?” Worth it Not worth it Don't know All Adults 31% 64 5 Dem 16% 81 3 Party Rep 62% 30 8 Ind 31% 66 3 Likely Voters 35% 61 4 - 14 - National Issues U.S. Homeland Security As the fourth anniversary of the September 11th terrorist attack approaches, and with the memory of recent subway bombings in London still fresh, a solid majority of Californians are concerned about another terrorist attack in the United States. Almost seven in 10 state residents say they are very (27%) or somewhat (41%) worried there will be another attack soon, while 31 percent say they are not too worried (21%) or not at all worried (10%). Californians are about as worried as Americans nationwide (69% are at least somewhat worried), according to a national survey by the Pew Research Center in July. Strong majorities in all parties are concerned about another terrorist attack, with Democrats (69%) slightly more worried than Republicans (64%) and independents (65%). More than two in three in all regions are concerned, with fears greatest in the Los Angeles and Other Southern California regions (71% each). Latinos (75%) are more likely than whites (64%) to be at least somewhat worried. Similarly, 68 percent of residents rate the issue of terrorism and homeland security as at least somewhat of a problem in California today, with 29 percent considering it a big problem. The proportion who rank this issue as a problem today is higher than it was in response to a similar question in August 2004 (66%), August 2003 (61%), and August 2002 (64%), but lower than in December 2001 (73%). “How worried are you that there will soon be another terrorist attack in the United States?” Very worried Somewhat worried Not too worried Not at all worried Don't know All Adults 27% 41 21 10 1 Dem 25% 44 20 10 1 Party Rep 24% 40 28 8 0 Ind 24% 41 24 11 0 Likely Voters 24% 42 23 10 1 Relating to fears about terrorist attacks, 46 percent of Californians say government policies have not gone far enough to protect the country, while 36 percent are concerned that these policies have gone too far in restricting civil liberties. Republicans (60%) are much more inclined than Democrats (40%) or independents (47%) to say that anti-terrorism policies have not gone far enough, and Los Angeles and San Francisco Bay Area residents are more likely than others to say that they have gone too far. Latinos (46%) are more inclined than whites (32%), and naturalized citizens (43%) are more likely than U.S.-born adults (33%), to say these government policies have gone too far. Californians are less likely than adults nationwide to say that anti-terrorism policies have not gone far enough (46% to 52%), according to the July survey by the Pew Research Center. “What concerns you more about the government's anti-terrorism policies, that they have not gone far enough to protect the country or that they have gone too far in restricting the average person’s civil liberties?” Not gone far enough Gone too far Neither (volunteered) Don't know All Adults 46% 36 11 7 Dem 40% 43 9 8 Party Rep 60% 19 15 6 Ind 47% 37 12 4 Likely Voters 47% 35 12 6 - 15 - August 2005 National Issues Supreme Court In a state that has sharply partisan differences about the performance of the president and governor, there is striking agreement in views of the Supreme Court. Californians express a generally favorable opinion of the Supreme Court and of President Bush’s nominee John Roberts to fill the seat of retiring Justice Sandra Day O’Connor. Overall, 52 percent of Californians approve of the way the nation’s highest court is doing its job, while 33 percent disapprove. Among likely voters, approval drops slightly to 50 percent, and disapproval rises to 38 percent, while 12 percent have no opinion. Approval is also similar in all geographic regions. Approval rises with education and income, while disapproval increases with age, but supporters outnumber detractors across demographic groups. Majority approval is also evident among whites and Latinos (54% each), and across education and income groups, when they are asked to evaluate how the Supreme Court is handling its job. “Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 52% 33 15 Dem 52% 34 14 Party Rep 53% 37 10 Ind 53% 34 13 Likely Voters 50% 38 12 John Roberts currently enjoys more support than opposition for confirmation among Californians. While support is short of a majority (49%), it is twice as high as the number opposed to confirming Roberts (24%). However, nearly three in 10 Californians are undecided. Among likely voters, support for Roberts’s confirmation rises to 54 percent. Republicans strongly support Roberts (72%), and independents are just short of a majority (49%), while Democrats are less enthusiastic (36%). Men favor Roberts more than do women (54% to 44%). Those who approve of the job that Bush is doing as president support confirmation (70%), while those who disapprove give a mixed response (35% confirm, 37% not confirm). Nationwide, Roberts draws stronger support, with 59 percent supporting his confirmation, according to a July ABC News/Washington Post poll. As for Roberts’s ideology, Californians are more inclined to say his views are about right (38%) given what they now know about him, rather than to consider him more conservative (29%) or less conservative (10%) than they would like. Californians are less approving than adults nationally, however, with 58 percent nationwide finding Roberts about right, according to a July ABC News/Washington Post poll. “As you may know, George W. Bush has nominated federal judge John Roberts to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court. Do you think the U.S. Senate should or should not confirm Roberts's nomination to the Supreme Court?” All Adults Should confirm Should not confirm Don't know 49% 24 27 Dem 36% 37 27 Party Rep 72% 8 20 Ind 49% 24 27 Likely Voters 54% 24 22 - 16 - National Issues Abortion Rights and Same-Sex Marriage Californians strongly support the Roe vs. Wade decision that legalized abortion in the U.S., with seven in 10 adults, and nearly three in four likely voters, opposed to the idea of the Supreme Court overturning the decision. Californians’ views are stronger than the nation’s, with 65 percent of adults in a nationwide Pew Research Center survey in July opposed to overturning the Roe vs. Wade decision. While Democrats (81%) and independents (75%) express a strongly pro-choice view on abortion, a majority of Republicans (60%) also would not like to see Roe vs. Wade overturned. Support for the 1973 decision increases with education, income, and among those without children, and is higher among liberals and moderates than conservatives. Men (70%) and women (69%) are equally in favor of upholding the decision. Whites (76%) are more in favor of the 1973 decision than are Latinos (56%). While a majority in all regions favor abortion rights, support is strongest in the San Francisco Bay area (81%), compared to the Central Valley (68%), Other Southern California (67%), and Los Angeles (65%) regions. Support for Roe vs. Wade also tends to decline with greater attendance at religious services. “In 1973, the Roe versus Wade decision established a woman's constitutional right to an abortion, at least in the first three months of pregnancy. Would you like to see the Supreme Court completely overturn the Roe versus Wade decision, or not?” Yes, overturn Roe versus Wade No, not overturn Roe versus Wade Don't know All Adults 24% 70 6 Dem 15% 81 4 Party Rep 33% 60 7 Ind 21% 75 4 Likely Voters 21% 74 5 As for same-sex marriage, Californians’ attitudes are divided, with 44 percent favoring and 48 percent opposing allowing gay and lesbian couples to be legally married. This division is similar to the one in February 2004 (44% favor; 50% oppose). Californians’ views are more favorable than those in the U.S. as a whole, given that 53 percent of adults in a nationwide Pew Research Center survey in July 2005 were opposed to allowing gay and lesbian couples to be legally married. Likely voters in California are evenly split on the issue of same-sex marriage. A majority of Democrats and independents (56% each) favor gay marital rights, while seven in 10 Republicans are opposed. Support for gay marriage also increases with education and income, and opposition increases with age. Women are more likely than men to favor same-sex marriage (48% to 40%), and whites (49%) express more support than do Latinos (36%). Gay and lesbian marriages are favored by 59 percent in the San Francisco Bay Area, compared to about four in 10 elsewhere. Opposition to same-sex marriage also tends to increase with greater attendance at religious services. “Do you favor or oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to be legally married?” Favor Oppose Don't know All Adults 44% 48 8 Dem 56% 35 9 Party Rep 24% 68 8 Ind 56% 36 8 Likely Voters 46% 46 8 - 17 - August 2005 National Issues Religious Displays and Flag Burning Californians strongly favor allowing certain religious displays in government settings. Sixty percent of residents approve of displaying a Ten Commandments monument in a public school or government building. Likely voters are no different. However, this support is lower in California than it is nationwide, with 70 percent of Americans in a national survey conducted by CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll in September 2003 approving of a Ten Commandments display. While about half of Democrats and independents favor displaying the Ten Commandments in public places, approval soars to nearly eight in 10 Republicans. At least six in 10 approve in the Los Angeles (59%), Other Southern California (66%) and Central Valley (70%) regions, but this drops to 46 percent in the San Francisco Bay Area. Approval for display is highest among older residents and those with less education. As would be expected, support for displaying a monument to the Ten Commandments in a public school or government building rises sharply among those who regularly attend religious services. “Do you approve or disapprove of a display of a monument to the Ten Commandments in a public school or government building?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 60% 34 6 Dem 54% 41 5 Party Rep 79% 16 5 Ind 50% 42 8 Likely Voters 58% 36 6 The national issue of outlawing flag burning is also a divisive one for Californians, with 47 percent favoring a constitutional amendment that would make it illegal to burn the American flag, and 48 percent opposing. Opposition increases slightly to 51 percent among likely voters. California is less supportive of this proposal than the nation, where 55 percent favor a constitutional amendment – which has passed the U.S. House of Representatives – while 42 percent are opposed, according to a June CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Republicans strongly favor a flag burning amendment (61%), while Democrats are opposed (54%) and independents are fairly divided (44% favor, 50% oppose). The proposed constitutional amendment is opposed by a majority of adults in the San Francisco Bay Area, while residents in the Los Angeles and Other Southern California regions are divided. A majority in the Central Valley favor a constitutional amendment. Support is greatest among those with less education, in lower- and middle-income groups, and among older residents. There are no differences in support for the constitutional amendment on flag burning across racial/ethnic groups. “Do you favor or oppose a constitutional amendment that would allow Congress and state governments to make it illegal to burn the American flag?” Favor constitutional amendment Oppose constitutional amendment Don't know All Adults 47% 48 5 Dem 42% 54 4 Party Rep 61% 35 4 Ind 44% 50 6 Likely Voters 46% 51 3 - 18 - Survey Methodology The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, research director and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance in research and writing from Douglas Strand, associate survey director; Kristy Michaud and Jennifer Paluch, survey research associates; and Lunna Lopes, survey intern. The survey was conducted with funding from The James Irvine Foundation and benefited from discussions with program staff, grantees, and others with expertise and interest in the state’s initiative process, in addition to regional focus groups with voters, also funded by the foundation; however, the survey methods, questions, and content of the report were solely determined by Mark Baldassare. The findings of this survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,004 California adult residents interviewed between August 8 and August 15, 2005. Interviewing took place mostly on weekday and weekend evenings, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted numbers were called. All telephone exchanges in California were eligible for calling. Telephone numbers in the survey sample were called up to six times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing by using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Interviews took an average of 20.9 minutes to complete. Interviewing was conducted in English or Spanish. Accent on Languages translated the survey into Spanish, and Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas, Inc. conducted the telephone interviewing. We used recent U.S. Census and state figures to compare the demographic characteristics of the survey sample with characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the census and state figures. The survey data in this report were statistically weighted to account for any demographic differences. The sampling error for the total sample of 2,004 adults is +/- 2 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 2 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger. The sampling error for the 1,556 registered voters is +/- 2.5 percent. The sampling error for the 988 likely voters is +/- 3 percent, and the sampling error for each of the half samples is also +/- 3 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. Throughout the report, we refer to four geographic regions. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “SF Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, and “Other Southern California” includes the mostly suburban regions of Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. These four regions were chosen for analysis because they are major population centers that account for approximately 90 percent of the state population. We present specific results for Latinos because they account for about 30 percent of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest growing voter groups. The sample sizes for the African American and Asian subgroups are not large enough for separate statistical analysis. We also compare the opinions of registered Democrats, Republicans, and independents. The “independents” category includes only those who are registered to vote as “decline to state.” We compare PPIC Statewide Survey responses to responses recorded in national surveys conducted by ABC News/Washington Post, CBS News/New York Times, NBC News/Wall Street Journal, CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, the Gallup Organization, and the Pew Research Center. We use earlier PPIC Statewide Surveys to analyze trends over time in California. - 19 - PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: SPECIAL SURVEY ON CALIFORNIANS AND THE INITIATIVE PROCESS AUGUST 8 – 15, 2005 2,004 CALIFORNIA ADULT RESIDENTS: ENGLISH AND SPANISH MARGIN OF ERROR +/-2% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE 1. Thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today? [code, don’t read] 20% economy, jobs, unemployment 15 education, schools 9 immigration, illegal immigration 8 crime, gangs, drugs 7 housing costs, availability 5 state budget, deficit, taxes 4 health care/costs, HMO reform 3 gasoline prices 2 electricity costs, energy crisis 2 environment, pollution 2 government regulations 2 population growth, development 2 traffic, transportation 12 other (specify) 7 don’t know 2. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California? 34% approve 54 disapprove 12 don't know [rotate questions 3 and 4] 3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Schwarzenegger is handling the issue of reforming California government? 35% approve 50 disapprove 15 don't know 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Schwarzenegger is handling the issue of the state budget and taxes? 33% approve 55 disapprove 12 don't know 5. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California legislature is handling its job? 27% approve 56 disapprove 17 don't know - 21 - [rotate questions 6 and 7] 6. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California legislature is handling the issue of the state budget and taxes? 23% approve 62 disapprove 15 don't know 7. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that the state legislators representing your assembly and state senate districts are doing at this time? 38% approve 40 disapprove 5 mixed (volunteered) 17 don't know 8. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 34% right direction 57 wrong direction 9 don't know 9. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 38% good times 51 bad times 11 don't know [Responses recorded for questions 10 through 23 are from likely voters only. All other responses are from all adults, except where noted.] 10. Governor Schwarzenegger has called a special election in November 2005 to vote on budget, educational, and governmental reform measures. Do you think it is better to have a special election later this year, or is it better to have waited until the next scheduled statewide election in June 2006? 36% better to have a special election 60 better to have waited until scheduled election in 2006 4 don't know 11. On another topic, how closely are you following news about the special election on November 8th—very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 21% very closely 47 fairly closely 23 not too closely 8 not at all closely 1 don’t know 12. Which one of the state propositions on the November 8th ballot are you most interested in? [code, don’t read] 2% Proposition 73 12 Proposition 74 4 Proposition 75 9 Proposition 76 13 Proposition 77 1 Proposition 78 0 Proposition 79 1 Proposition 80 16 none of them (volunteered) 5 all equally (volunteered) 3 other (specify) 34 don’t know We have a few questions to ask you about some of the propositions on the November ballot. [rotate five blocks of questions randomly: (1)13, 14; (2) 15, 16; (3) 17, 18, 19 (4) 20, 21; (5) 22, 23] 13. Proposition 73 is called the "Waiting Period and Parental Notification Before Termination of Minor's Pregnancy Initiative Constitutional Amendment." It defines and prohibits abortion for an unemancipated minor until 48 hours after the physician notifies the minor's parent or legal guardian, except in a medical emergency or with parental waiver. It mandates reporting requirements and authorizes monetary damages against physicians for violations. The potential state costs would be several million dollars annually for health and social service programs, the courts, and state administration combined. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 73? 44% yes 48 no 8 don't know 14. How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 73—is it very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 50% very important 33 somewhat important 10 not too important 4 not at all important 3 don't know 15. Proposition 74 is called the "Public School Teachers Waiting Period for Permanent Status and Dismissal Initiative." It increases the probationary period for public school teachers from two years to five years. It modifies the process by which school boards can dismiss a teaching employee who receives two consecutive unsatisfactory performance evaluations. There would be unknown net effects on school districts' costs and costs would vary significantly by district. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 74? 49% yes 42 no 9 don't know 16. Do you think that poor teacher performance is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem in California's public schools today? 36% big problem 39 somewhat of a problem 19 not much of a problem 2 not at all a problem (volunteered) 4 don't know 17. Proposition 75 is called the "Public Employee Union Dues, Restrictions on Political Contributions, Employee Consent Requirement Initiative." It prohibits using public employee union dues for political contributions without individual employees' prior consent. It excludes contributions benefiting charities or employees and requires unions to report political contributions to the Fair Political Practices Commission. Fiscal impacts are probably minor state and local government costs and would potentially be offset from fines and fees. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 75? 58% yes 33 no 9 don't know - 22 - [rotate questions 18 and 19] 18. Do you approve or disapprove of placing restrictions on the ability of labor unions to contribute to political candidates and ballot initiatives? 55% approve 38 disapprove 7 don't know 19. Do you approve or disapprove of placing restrictions on the ability of business corporations to contribute to political candidates and ballot initiatives? 61% approve 31 disapprove 8 don't know 20. Proposition 76 is called the "State Spending and School Funding Limits Initiative Constitutional Amendment." It limits state spending to the prior year's level plus three years' average revenue growth. It changes state minimum school funding requirements under Proposition 98. It permits the governor, under specified circumstances, to reduce budget appropriations of the governor's choosing. State spending is likely to be reduced relative to current law, due to the additional spending limit and new powers granted to the governor. Reductions could apply to schools and shift costs to other local governments. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 76? 28% yes 61 no 11 don't know 21. In terms of dealing with future state budget conditions, how important is it whether Proposition 76 passes— very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 41% very important 29 somewhat important 9 not too important 12 not at all important 9 don't know 22. Proposition 77 is called the "Reapportionment Initiative Constitutional Amendment." It amends the state Constitution's process for redistricting California's Senate, Assembly, Congressional, and Board of Equalization districts. It requires a three-member panel of retired judges selected by legislative leaders. The one-time state redistricting costs total no more than 1.5 million dollars and county costs are in the range of 1 million dollars. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 77? 34% yes 49 no 17 don't know - 23 - 23. If voting districts were redrawn by an independent panel of judges, do you think California would generally have Congressional and state legislators who more effectively represent their districts than legislators do today, or not? 46% yes, would represent more effectively 35 no, would not represent more effectively 19 don't know 24. Changing topics, overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that George W. Bush is handling his job as president of the United States? 38% approve 58 disapprove 4 don't know [rotate questions 25 and 26] 25. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling the situation in Iraq? 31% approve 65 disapprove 4 don't know 26. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that President Bush is handling terrorism and homeland security issues? 46% approve 49 disapprove 5 don't know 27. In general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq—very well, somewhat well, not too well, or not at all well? 6% very well 24 somewhat well 27 not too well 40 not at all well 3 don't know 28. All in all, do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq, or not? 31% worth it 64 not worth it 5 don't know 29. Do you think the war in Iraq has helped the war on terrorism, or has it hurt the war on terrorism? 33% helped 56 hurt 11 don't know August 2005 30. How worried are you that there will soon be another terrorist attack in the United States—very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not at all worried? 27% very worried 41 somewhat worried 21 not too worried 10 not at all worried 1 don't know 31. What concerns you more about the government's antiterrorism policies [rotate] (1) that they have not gone far enough to protect the country [or] (2) that they have gone too far in restricting the average person's civil liberties? 46% not gone far enough 36 gone too far 11 neither (volunteered) 7 don't know 32. How much of a problem is terrorism and homeland security in California today? Is it a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not much of a problem? 29% big problem 39 somewhat of a problem 28 not much of a problem 4 don't know On another topic… [rotate questions 33 to 36] 33. In 1973, the Roe versus Wade decision established a woman's constitutional right to an abortion, at least in the first three months of pregnancy. Would you like to see the Supreme Court completely overturn the Roe versus Wade decision, or not? 24% yes, overturn Roe versus Wade 70 no, not overturn Roe versus Wade 6 don't know 34. Do you favor or oppose allowing gay and lesbian couples to be legally married? 44% favor 48 oppose 8 don't know 35. Do you approve or disapprove of a display of a monument to the Ten Commandments in a public school or government building? 60% approve 34 disapprove 6 don't know 36. Do you favor or oppose a constitutional amendment that would allow Congress and state governments to make it illegal to burn the American flag? 47% favor constitutional amendment 48 oppose constitutional amendment 5 don't know 37. On another topic, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job? 52% approve 33 disapprove 15 don't know 38. As you may know, George W. Bush has nominated federal judge John Roberts to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court. Do you think the U.S. Senate should or should not confirm Roberts's nomination to the Supreme Court? 49% should confirm 24 should not confirm 27 don't know 39. Given what you know, do you think Roberts is [rotate 1 and 2 randomly] (1) a more conservative nominee than you would have liked [or] (2) a less conservative nominee than you would have liked, [or] (3) about right? 29% more conservative 10 less conservative 38 about right 23 don't know 40. Next, how much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Sacramento to do what is right—just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time? 5% just about always 25 most of the time 62 only some of the time 5 none of the time (volunteered) 3 don't know 41. Would you say the state government is pretty much run by a few big interests looking out for themselves, or that it is run for the benefit of all of the people? 65% a few big interests 26 benefit of all of the people 9 don't know - 24 - 42. Do you think the people in state government waste a lot of the money we pay in taxes, waste some of it, or don't waste very much of it? 61% a lot 31 some 6 don't waste very much 2 don't know 43. On another topic, in California state government today, which of the following do you think has the most influence over public policy—[rotate] (1) the governor, (2) the legislature, [or] (3) initiatives on the state ballot? 34% the governor 35 the legislature 19 initiatives on the state ballot 2 other answer (specify) 10 don't know California uses the direct initiative process, which enables voters to bypass the legislature and have issues put on the ballot as state propositions for voter approval or rejection. 44. In general, do you think it is a good thing or a bad thing that a majority of voters can make laws and change public policies by passing initiatives? 68% good thing 24 bad thing 2 other (volunteered) 6 don't know 45. Overall, do you think public policy decisions made through the initiative process by California voters are probably better or probably worse than public policy decisions made by the governor and state legislature? 57% probably better 25 probably worse 6 same (volunteered) 12 don't know 46. Generally speaking, would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, or not satisfied with the way the initiative process is working in California today? 10% very satisfied 58 somewhat satisfied 26 not satisfied 6 don't know 47. On another topic, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote? 78% yes [ask q 48] 22 no [skip to q 49a] 48. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or as an independent? 43% Democrat [skip to q 49b] 34 Republican [skip to q 49c] 4 another party (specify) [skip to q 50] 19 independent [ask q 49a] 49a.Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party? 25% Republican party 43 Democratic party 23 neither (volunteered) 9 don't know [go to q 50] 49b.Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or not a very strong Democrat? 54% strong 45 not very strong 1 don't know [go to q 50] 49c.Would you call yourself a strong Republican or not a very strong Republican? 52% strong 44 not very strong 4 don't know 50. On another topic, would you consider yourself to be politically: [rotate list as a set, starting from either the top or the bottom; read list] 10% very liberal 22 somewhat liberal 31 middle-of-the-road 25 somewhat conservative 10 very conservative 2 don't know 51. Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics-a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 24% great deal 44 fair amount 25 only a little 6 none 1 don't know [52–70: background and demographic questions] - 25 - August 2005 PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Advisory Committee Angela Blackwell Founder and CEO PolicyLink Paul Brest President The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Mollyann Brodie Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley James E. Canales President The James Irvine Foundation Matthew K. Fong President Strategic Advisory Group William Hauck President California Business Roundtable Dennis A. Hunt Vice President Communications and Public Affairs The California Endowment Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Carol S. Larson President and CEO The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Monica Lozano Publisher and CEO La Opinión Donna Lucas Deputy Chief of Staff Office of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger Mark Paul Deputy Treasurer California Treasurer Phil Angelides Dan Rosenheim News Director KPIX-TV Carol Stogsdill President Stogsdill Consulting Cathy Taylor Vice President and Editorial Commentary Director Orange County Register Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. - 26 - PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA Board of Directors Thomas C. Sutton, Chair Chairman and CEO Pacific Life Insurance Company Edward K. Hamilton Chairman Hamilton, Rabinovitz & Alschuler, Inc. Gary K. Hart Founder Institute for Education Reform California State University, Sacramento Arjay Miller Dean Emeritus Graduate School of Business Stanford University Ki Suh Park Design and Managing Partner Gruen Associates Constance L. Rice Co-Director The Advancement Project Walter B. Hewlett Director Center for Computer Assisted Research in the Humanities David W. Lyon President and CEO Public Policy Institute of California Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center Cheryl White Mason Vice-President Litigation Legal Department Hospital Corporation of America Advisory Council Clifford W. Graves General Manager Community Development Department City of Los Angeles Daniel A. Mazmanian C. Erwin and Ione Piper Dean and Professor School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Elizabeth G. Hill Legislative Analyst State of California Dean Misczynski Director California Research Bureau Hilary W. Hoynes Associate Professor Department of Economics University of California, Davis Andrés E. Jiménez Director California Policy Research Center University of California Office of the President Norman R. King Executive Director San Bernardino Associated Governments Robin M. Kramer Senior Director The Broad Foundation Rudolf Nothenberg Chief Administrative Officer (Retired) City and County of San Francisco Manuel Pastor Professor, Latin American & Latino Studies University of California, Santa Cruz Peter Schrag Contributing Editor The Sacramento Bee James P. Smith Senior Economist RAND Corporation PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 800 O San Francisco, California 94111 Phone: (415) 291-4400 O Fax: (415) 291-4401 www.ppic.org O info@ppic.org" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 09:38:08" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(8) "s_805mbs" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:38:08" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 09:38:08" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["guid"]=> string(50) "http://148.62.4.17/wp-content/uploads/S_805MBS.pdf" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_mime_type"]=> string(15) "application/pdf" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" ["status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["attachment_authors"]=> bool(false) }