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object(Timber\Post)#3742 (44) { ["ImageClass"]=> string(12) "Timber\Image" ["PostClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Post" ["TermClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Term" ["object_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["custom"]=> array(5) { ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(12) "S_506MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(7) "1021641" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(93296) "PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2006 Public Policy Institute of California Special Survey on the California State Budget in collaboration with The James Irvine Foundation Mark Baldassare Research Director & Survey Director The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) is a private operating foundation established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. The Institute is dedicated to improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. PPIC’s research agenda focuses on three program areas: population, economy, and governance and public finance. Studies within these programs are examining the underlying forces shaping California’s future, cutting across a wide range of public policy concerns, including education, health care, immigration, income distribution, welfare, urban growth, and state and local finance. PPIC was created because three concerned citizens – William R. Hewlett, Roger W. Heyns, and Arjay Miller – recognized the need for linking objective research to the realities of California public policy. Their goal was to help the state’s leaders better understand the intricacies and implications of contemporary issues and make informed public policy decisions when confronted with challenges in the future. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. David W. Lyon is founding President and Chief Executive Officer of PPIC. Thomas C. Sutton is Chair of the Board of Directors. Public Policy Institute of California 500 Washington Street, Suite 800 • San Francisco, California 94111 Telephone: (415) 291-4400 • Fax: (415) 291-4401 info@ppic.org • www.ppic.org Preface The PPIC Statewide Survey series provides policymakers, the media, and the general public with objective, advocacy-free information on the perceptions, opinions, and public policy preferences of California residents. Inaugurated in April 1998, the survey series has generated a database that includes the responses of more than 140,000 Californians. The current survey is the seventh in a series of special surveys on the California State Budget, begun in June 2003 and conducted in collaboration with The James Irvine Foundation. This survey series seeks to raise public awareness, inform decisionmakers, and stimulate public discussion about the current state budget and the underlying state and local finance systems. The current survey focuses on the 2006 election and state budget issues. It examines voters’ preferences on June 6 primary ballot issues, including the Democratic gubernatorial primary and two state propositions. Over the years, California voters have made significant fiscal decisions for the state at the ballot box. In June, the state’s voters will again have an important impact on the state and local fiscal system when they vote on a state bond measure for local libraries and an initiative that would raise taxes on the wealthy to pay for preschool for all four-year-olds. While the governor and legislature face the challenge of passing a state budget for the fiscal year beginning July 1, they also seek to address a persistent gap between state spending and state revenue and to find ways to fund improvements in the state’s infrastructure. This public opinion survey offers an opportunity to examine Californians’ views on elected officials, fiscal issues, and reform proposals. This report presents the responses of 2,000 adult residents throughout the state on a wide range of issues: • The 2006 elections, including likely voter preferences in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, potential match-ups of major party gubernatorial candidates in November, candidate popularity ratings, voters’ attention to election news and advertising, and issues of importance to voters. The survey also measures support for Propositions 81 (the library bond) and 82 (the preschool initiative) on the June ballot and tracks voters’ attitudes related to support for these ballot measures. • State fiscal issues, including attitudes toward the governor’s budget plan and related fiscal proposals, perceptions of the severity of the state budget situation and fiscal trends in the past two years, priorities for state spending on major categories of the state budget, fiscal policy preferences, attitudes towards lowering the two-thirds vote requirement for passing the state budget and local special taxes, and perceptions of state and local government spending and taxes in California compared to other states. • State policy issues, including support for state bond measures to pay for infrastructure projects headed for the November ballot, overall approval ratings of Governor Schwarzenegger and the state legislature, approval ratings for the governor on the state budget and taxes, approval ratings for local representatives to the state senate and assembly, attitudes toward political redistricting, legislative term limits, and campaign finance issues and related reform proposals. • The extent to which Californians may differ with regard to attitudes toward fiscal, political, and governance issues by party affiliation, demographics, race/ethnicity, and region of residence. This is the 67th PPIC Statewide Survey, which has included a number of special editions on the Central Valley (11/99, 3/01, 4/02, 4/03, 4/04), Los Angeles County (3/03, 3/04, 3/05), Orange County (9/01, 12/02, 12/03, 12/04), San Diego County (7/02), education (4/05, 4/06) population (5/01, 12/05), land use (11/01, 11/02), housing (11/04), the environment (6/00, 6/02, 7/03, 11/03, 7/04, 7/05, 2/06), the state budget (6/03, 1/04, 5/04, 1/05, 5/05, 1/06), California’s future (8/04), and the initiative process (08/05, 09/05, 10/05, 11/05). Copies of this report may be ordered by e-mail (order@ppic.org) or phone (415-291-4400). Copies of this and earlier reports are posted on the publications page of the PPIC web site (www.ppic.org). For questions about the survey, please contact survey@ppic.org. -i- - ii - Contents Preface Press Release California 2006 Elections State Fiscal Issues State Policies Survey Methodology Survey Questions and Results Survey Advisory Committee i v 1 7 13 19 21 27 - iii - Press Release Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: http://www.ppic.org/main/pressreleaseindex.asp SPECIAL SURVEY ON THE CALIFORNIA STATE BUDGET STATE OF UNCERTAINTY: CALIFORNIANS UNDECIDED ABOUT PRIMARY, DIVIDED ABOUT LEADERSHIP, FUTURE Governor’s May Budget is Popular, But He Gets Little Credit; Early Support for Infrastructure Measures SAN FRANCISCO, California, May 25, 2006 — Californians’ growing economic angst and chronic doubts about the quality and probity of state government are bringing less, not more, clarity to the final weeks of the primary campaign, according to a survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. The upshot? Far higher levels of undecided voters than in previous years. The context: Rising gas prices, a declining stock market, and inflation worries have taken their toll on consumer confidence: 52 percent of state residents say they expect bad times financially in the coming year, up from 43 percent in March. A majority of Californians (57%) think the state is headed in the wrong direction – and their assessment of state elected leaders is equally glum. State residents are far more likely to disapprove than to approve of the job performance of the governor (52% disapprove, 36% approve) and state legislature (54% disapprove, 26% approve). The consequences: With the Democratic gubernatorial primary just two weeks away, one third of Democratic primary likely voters (33%) are still undecided. By comparison, in the weeks before the 2002 and 1998 gubernatorial primaries, about one in four voters were still undecided. Further, in hypothetical match-ups between Democratic challengers and the incumbent governor, about one in four voters are undecided or name others, compared to one in six voters in 2002. “California voters seem very indecisive at the moment,” says PPIC survey director Mark Baldassare. “But it’s not because they are uninformed; they are simply uncertain about the type of leadership they want for the state.” In fact, more likely voters say they are very closely or fairly closely following news about candidates for governor today than a month ago (68% today to 60% in April). And most Democratic primary likely voters (79%) say they have seen advertisements for State Treasurer Phil Angelides (26%), State Controller Steve Westly (28%), or both (25%). Women the Deciders in Democratic Primary Angelides and Westly are locked in a statistical dead heat among Democratic primary likely voters (35% to 32%). Angelides has made the largest gains in the past month – up from 20 percent in April compared to Westly’s 26 percent. Still, the situation is highly volatile because large number of Democratic primary voters (33%) are undecided or would choose someone else. Who are these undecided voters? Women. They are more likely than men (37% to 28%) to say they are undecided. “Since women outnumber men in the Democratic electorate, undecided women will be pivotal in determining the winner in this primary election,” says Baldassare. Currently, men favor Angelides by a wide margin (43% Angelides vs. 29% Westly) and women favor Westly by a narrower margin (35% Westly vs. 28% Angelides). But regardless of who wins the June Democratic primary, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger appears to be headed for a close race come fall. The race is a toss-up in hypothetical contests between Schwarzenegger and Angelides (38% each) and Schwarzenegger and Westly (36% each). The governor’s comparative advantage over Angelides and Westly – namely, his name ID – is also his weakness: Most voters know him, but they are as likely to have an unfavorable view of him (47%) as a favorable one (45%). Angelides and Westly have the reverse problem: They -v- Press Release have far lower unfavorable ratings than Schwarzenegger (26% Angelides, 19% Westly) but they are also unknown to much of the electorate (45% Angelides, 50% Westly). “Independent voters – who know little about these Democratic candidates today but who will cast the swing votes in November – are getting their first exposure to them through more frequent and more negative paid advertising in the run up to the primary,” says Baldassare. Schwarzenegger’s Budget Popular, His Approach Not The state budget is already a big issue in the gubernatorial race. How do residents feel about the current state of fiscal affairs? A majority of Californians (57%) say they are satisfied with the governor’s revised budget plan, which he released on May 12. This plan has much higher support than his last year’s budget proposal (57% today compared to 44% in May 2005). Strong majorities back the governor’s plans for using some unexpected new state revenues to increase spending on K-12 education (77%), reduce state debt and reserve cash (76%), and fund levee repairs (67%). But there’s a twist. Although Californians support the governor’s proposal, only 19 percent prefer his approach to making tough choices about the budget, while 35 percent prefer the approach of Democrats in the state legislature, and 20 percent prefer the approach of legislative Republicans. A majority of Californians (52%) – and nearly half of likely voters (47%) – still disapprove of Schwarzenegger’s handling of the state budget and taxes. “Californians appear to be wary of the feast or famine budget situation they’ve seen in recent years,” says Baldassare. In fact, a majority (58%) believe the state’s fiscal situation remains a big problem. And, although one in four residents (26%) say it has improved in the past two years, two in three say it has stayed the same (34%) or gotten worse (32%). Even though many Californians have serious concerns about the state fisc, many would still like to see increased spending in some major budget categories – K-12 education (68%), health and human services (60%), and public colleges and universities (57%). The exception? State residents would prefer to spend less money (32%) rather than more (24%) on prisons. Overall, 55 percent of Californians favor a state government with higher taxes and more services. But are they willing to support reforms that would make it easier to raise taxes and pass budgets? No. More state residents say it would be a bad idea to lower either the supermajority vote requirement for local special taxes (52% bad idea, 38% good idea) or the two-thirds vote requirement for state budgets (46% bad idea, 42% good idea). Support Builds for Infrastructure Measures Seven in 10 Californians (70%) support the governor’s plan to invest $222 billion over the next 10 years on infrastructure projects. A majority (58%) want to increase spending on infrastructure, and believe education facilities (50%) should be the top priority when it comes to allocating additional state funding, followed by surface transportation projects (24%), and flood protection (15%). In November, Californians will go to the polls to vote on four infrastructure bond measures – totaling about $37 billion – that the legislature placed on the ballot with the governor’s support. But does support for increased infrastructure spending hold when the rubber hits the road? Currently, the $10 billion bond for school and university construction and renovation has the strongest support among likely voters (68%). More than six in 10 likely voters also say they would vote yes on a $20 billion bond measure for surface transportation projects (65%) and a $4 billion bond for flood protection projects (62%). Voters are divided, however, on a $3 billion bond for affordable housing (49% yes, 47% no). Interestingly, although Californians are generally enthusiastic about this bond package, they give the state legislature little credit for it: 51 percent of state residents – and 57 percent of likely voters – say they disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling the issues of transportation and infrastructure. June Ballot Measures Are Partisan Affairs Proposition 81 – the $600 million state bond measure that would fund the construction and renovation of public libraries in California – is currently supported by 51 percent of likely voters, with 41 percent opposed. Democrats support the measure by a wide margin (65% yes, 26% no), while Republicans are opposed (38% yes, 53% no) and - vi - Press Release independents are torn (45% yes, 47% no). Three in four voters (75%) say expanding access to public libraries is at least somewhat important. Proposition 82 – which would fund voluntary preschool education for all four-year-olds in California through a tax on high-income state residents – is currently supported by 50 percent of likely voters, with 43 percent opposed. Support for this measure has changed little since April (51% yes, 40% no). Even though most likely voters (82%) agree that attending preschool is at least somewhat important to later school success, Democrats (63%) are more likely than Republicans (36%) to back the measure. Half of likely voters (52%) like the idea of tying a specific tax to a specific service, while 34 percent think earmarking is a bad idea. More Key Findings • Independent Voters Just Say No to Partisan Ballots (page 1) Although primary rules allow independent voters to select a party ballot instead of a nonpartisan one, few independents today say they plan to select a Democratic (21%) or Republican (8%) ballot. • Immigration Remains Top Concern (page 4) Likely voters rank immigration (24%) as the top issue they want candidates for governor to discuss, followed by education and schools (23%). Republicans (32%) and independents (29%) are more likely than Democrats (15%) to name immigration as their top issue. • Redistricting Reform Still Hot… (page 16) Despite the defeat of Proposition 77 on last year’s ballot, many voters (64%) still say the redistricting process needs change. Six in 10 (62%) would prefer to have an independent commission of citizens, rather than the governor and legislature, in charge of the redistricting process. • … Term Limits Reform Not (page 17) Two in three likely voters (67%) say term limits are a good thing, and an equal number oppose changing the system to let state legislators serve up to 14 years in either the senate or assembly. • Lukewarm Support for Public Funding of Campaigns (page 18) A strong majority of likely voters (64%) say campaign contributions have a bad effect on policymaking in Sacramento. Half (51%) would pay for a system of public funding for state and legislative campaigns. About the Survey This survey on the California state budget – made possible with funding from The James Irvine Foundation – is a special edition of the PPIC Statewide Survey. This is the seventh survey in a series intended to raise public awareness, inform decisionmakers, and stimulate public discussions about issues related to the California state budget and underlying fiscal system. Findings of this survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,000 California adult residents interviewed between May 14 and May 21, 2006. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The sampling error for the total sample is +/- 2%. The sampling error for subgroups is larger: For the 986 likely voters it is +/- 3% and for the 435 Democratic primary likely voters it is +/- 5%. For more information on methodology, see page 19. Mark Baldassare is research director at PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has directed since 1998. PPIC is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to improving public policy through objective, nonpartisan research on the economic, social, and political issues that affect Californians. The institute was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. This report will appear on PPIC’s website (www.ppic.org) on May 25. ### - vii - Democratic Gubernatorial Primary 33 35 32 Democratic Primary Likely Voters Phil Angelides Steve Westly Other/Don't know Proposition 81—Library Bond 8 Likely Voters Likely Voters' Opinions of Gubernatorial Candidates 100 Favorable opinion 80 Unfavorable opinion 60 40 29 26 20 45 47 31 19 0 Angelides Schw arzenegger Westly Proposition 82—Preschool Initiative 7 51 41 43 50 Likely Voters Yes No Don't know Governor's Budget Plan 100 Percent saying they are "satisfied" with his budget plan 80 71 60 57 40 43 55 20 0 All Adults Dem Rep Ind Likely Voters Yes No Don't know Infrastructure Bonds 100 Percent saying they would vote "yes" 80 68 65 62 60 49 40 20 0 $10 B1illion $20 2Billion $4 B3illion $3 B4illion Schools Transportation Flood A f f ordable Protection Housing All Adults Likely Voters California 2006 Elections Democratic Primary for Governor With the June 6 Democratic gubernatorial primary campaign in its final days, State Treasurer Phil Angelides and State Controller Steve Westly are in a close contest (35% to 32%); however, one in three voters are still undecided or saying they would choose someone else to run against Arnold Schwarzenegger in November. In the past month, Angelides has experienced the largest gains of the entire campaign season. In contrast, Westly has shown modest increases in support over time. Still, with limited time remaining before the primary, a large percent of voters have yet to choose a favorite candidate in the Democratic primary for governor. “If the Democratic primary for governor were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for...?” Democratic Primary Likely Voters Phil Angelides, State Treasurer Steve Westly, State Controller Other/don’t know March 06 22% 23 55 April 06 20% 26 54 May 06 35% 32 33 Women outnumber men in the Democratic electorate, thus, the large number of undecided women will play an important role in determining the winner on June 6. Currently, men favor Angelides by a wide margin, and women favor Westly by a narrower margin. Phil Angelides Steve Westly Other/don't know Democratic Primary Likely Voters 35% 32 33 Gender Men Women 43% 28% 29 35 28 37 Apparently, the gubernatorial and other candidates in the Democratic primaries are not attracting much interest among the “decline to state” or independent voters. Although the primary rules allow for independents to select a party ballot instead of a nonpartisan ballot, just two in 10 independents at this time say they will select a Democratic ballot. Interest in voting in the Democratic primary has not changed much as the campaign season has progressed. Since the ballot choices of independent voters will be an important factor in the fall election—neither Democrats nor Republicans have 50 percent of registered voters and independents now make up 18 percent of the California electorate—their party participation and candidate leanings in the June primary will be closely watched. “Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or on the nonpartisan ballot?” Independent Likely Voters Only Democratic primary Republican primary Nonpartisan ballot Don't know March 06 19% 12 57 12 April 06 18% 14 56 12 May 06 21% 8 54 17 -1- California 2006 Elections Potential November Match-ups Governor Schwarzenegger appears to be headed for a close election in the 2006 governor’s race no matter who he faces in November. The race is a toss-up in a hypothetical contest between Schwarzenegger and Angelides (38% to 38%) or Schwarzenegger and Westly (36% to 36%). At this stage, about one in four voters would opt for other candidates or are undecided in these two gubernatorial match-ups. “If these were the candidates in the November 2006 governor's election would you vote for…?” Arnold Schwarzenegger Phil Angelides Other/don't know Likely Voters 38% 38 24 Arnold Schwarzenegger Steve Westly Other/don't know Likely Voters 36% 36 28 The pattern of partisan support for Schwarzenegger is remarkably similar whether Angelides or Westly is the Democratic candidate for governor. About two in three Democrats would support either Angelides or Westly against Schwarzenegger. Meanwhile, about two in three Republicans would favor Schwarzenegger, whether the Democratic candidate is Westly or Angelides. Independents are divided in match-ups between Schwarzenegger and Angelides or Westly, but large percentages of independents are undecided or name other candidates. The choices made by these undecided independents are certain to play a decisive role in determining the outcome of the November election. In terms of regional differences, both Angelides and Westly have their strongest showing against Schwarzenegger in the Democratic-leaning San Francisco Bay Area, while Schwarzenegger leads both Democratic challengers in the Central Valley and the Other Southern California region. About one in four Latinos say they would vote for Schwarzenegger over Angelides or Westly, while more express support for either Angelides or Westly. Whites favor Schwarzenegger over Angelides (45% to 33%) and Westly (42% to 34%). Men favor Schwarzenegger over Angelides (45% to 36%) and Westly (42% to 33%), while women favor Angelides (41% to 31%) and Westly (40% to 29%) over Schwarzenegger. “If these were the candidates in the November 2006 governor's election would you vote for…?” Likely Voters Only Arnold Schwarzenegger Phil Angelides Other/don’t know Arnold Schwarzenegger Steve Westly Other/don’t know Dem 14% 65 21 14 62 24 Party Rep 67% 10 23 65 9 26 Ind 33% 35 32 27 32 41 Region Central Valley 45% 31 24 44 31 25 SF Bay Area 25% 51 24 24 46 30 Los Angeles 37% 42 21 38 36 26 Other Southern California 44% 30 26 39 31 30 Latinos 26% 47 27 24 36 40 -2- California 2006 Elections Candidate Popularity Ratings Many Democratic primary likely voters are not all that familiar with the two major candidates in the gubernatorial primary—even in the closing days of this campaign. About four in 10 say they don’t know enough about Angelides or Westly to have opinions about either one. Still, perceptions of both candidates are mostly, and about equally, favorable. Only about one in 10 Democratic primary likely voters have unfavorable opinions of Angelides or Westly—over four in 10 have favorable opinions of them. “Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of _____________, or don’t you know enough about him to have an opinion?” Democratic Primary Likely Voters Only Phil Angelides Steve Westly Favorable 48% 44 Favorability Unfavorable 12% 10 Don’t Know 40% 46 Currently, the two Democratic primary candidates are far less well known than Governor Schwarzenegger. In the broader electorate of all likely voters, about half have no opinion of Angelides and Westly, compared to less than one in 10 for Schwarzenegger. Three in 10 voters have favorable opinions toward both Angelides and Westly. Californians’ opinions are divided over Schwarzenegger— 45 percent are favorable toward him, while 47 percent are unfavorable. Among likely voters, more express favorable opinions of Schwarzenegger than either Democratic hopeful, but at the same time, more express unfavorable opinions of Schwarzenegger than either Democrat. Schwarzenegger is highly popular among Republicans and highly unpopular among Democrats. Among independents, 37 percent have a favorable opinion and 52 percent have an unfavorable opinion. Westly and Angelides have similar popularity levels among Democrats. Westly is more popular than Angelides among independents and Republicans. Schwarzenegger is most popular in the Central Valley and the Other Southern California region, and least popular in the San Francisco Bay Area, where Westly and Angelides have their highest popularity ratings. Likely Voters Only Phil Angelides Arnold Schwarzenegger Steve Westly Favorable Unfavorable Don't know Favorable Unfavorable Don't know Favorable Unfavorable Don't know All Likely Voters 29% 26 45 45 47 8 31 19 50 Dem 48% 12 40 21 69 10 45 10 45 Party Rep 10% 39 51 75 17 8 18 26 56 Ind 23% 26 51 37 52 11 28 18 54 Central Valley 20% 28 52 52 37 11 28 20 52 Region SF Bay Area 39% 21 40 34 60 6 39 17 44 Los Angeles 30% 26 44 44 47 9 31 19 50 Other Southern California 24% 31 45 51 42 7 27 20 53 - 3 - May 2006 California 2006 Elections Voters’ Interests and Awareness Likely voters place immigration (24%) and education (23%) at the top of the list of issues they would most like the candidates for governor to talk about this year. By comparison, just 12 percent name the state budget and taxes, and 10 percent mention jobs and the economy. Only 4 percent name infrastructure as the single most important issue, and another 2 percent mention transportation and traffic congestion. Other topics mentioned at less than 4 percent each include crime, the environment, gasoline prices, gay rights, government reform, health care, housing, and terrorism. Democratic voters—and those most likely to vote in the Democratic primary—tend to focus most on education. Republicans and independents focus most on the issue of immigration. “Californians will go to the polls to elect a governor in 2006. Which one issue would you like to hear the candidates talk about this year?” Likely Voters Only Immigration, illegal immigration Education, schools State budget, deficit, taxes Economy, jobs Infrastructure All Likely Voters 24% 23 12 10 4 Dem 15% 30 9 13 5 Party Rep 32% 18 14 6 3 Ind 29% 20 14 9 2 Democratic Primary Likely Voters 15% 29 9 12 5 The gubernatorial election appears to be generating more interest now than it did earlier this spring. Today, 68 percent of all likely voters say they are very or fairly closely following the news about it. In March (52%) and April (60%), fewer likely voters were very or fairly closely following the election news. Today, 73 percent of those who are Democratic primary likely voters are very or fairly closely following news about the candidates for governor. This past month, the Democratic gubernatorial primary has been in an active period of paid television commercials, which is evident in the three in four voters who have noticed advertisements from both Angelides and Westly. Likely voters are about equally likely to say they recall seeing ads by either Angelides or Westly, and this pattern is also evident among the Democratic primary likely voters. Clearly, these ads reach a broader audience than simply the Democratic primary likely voter. As Californians wait to learn who Schwarzenegger will face in November, solid majorities of Republican and independent voters have also seen the Angelides and Westly advertisements. “In the past month, have you seen any television advertisements by the candidates for governor? Whose ads have you seen the most—Phil Angelides’ or Steve Westly’s?” Likely Voters Only Yes, Angelides’ ads Yes, Westly’s ads Yes, both equally (volunteered) No/don't know All Likely Voters 27% 28 21 24 Dem 25% 29 25 21 Party Rep 28% 26 20 26 Ind 30% 30 20 20 Democratic Primary Likely Voters 26% 28 25 21 -4- California 2006 Elections Proposition 81: Public Library Bond Proposition 81 is a $600 million state bond measure that would fund the construction and renovation of public libraries in California. When likely voters are read the text of this measure that will require a simple majority vote to pass on the June ballot, 51 percent say they would vote yes and 41 percent would vote no. In our March survey, the level of support for Proposition 81 was similar (50% yes, 41% no). Today, Democrats (65%) are much more likely than Republicans (38%) and independents (45%) to say they would vote yes on this bond. By region, this bond measure draws the most support in the San Francisco Bay Area (57%) and Los Angeles (53%), while support in the Central Valley (45%) and the Other Southern California region (46%) is lower. Support for Proposition 81 is similar across income groups and is higher among Latinos than whites. Moreover, support rises sharply with level of education. “Proposition 81 is called the California Reading and Literacy Improvement and Public Library Construction and Renovation Bond Act of 2006…. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 81?”* Likely Voters Only Yes No Don’t know All Likely Voters 51% 41 8 Party Dem 65% 26 9 Rep 38% 53 9 Ind 45% 47 8 Central Valley 45% 45 10 Region SF Bay Area 57% 34 9 Los Angeles 53% 39 8 Other Southern California 46% 44 10 How important is the issue of expanding access to public libraries? Three in four voters say this issue is at least somewhat important, though just under half (44%) say it is very important to them. Of those planning to vote yes on Proposition 81, almost seven in 10 say this issue is very important, while about half of those who would vote no say it is either not too important (31%) or not at all important (20%). Democrats (57%) are more likely than Republicans (33%) or independents (39%) to say public library access is very important. Women (51%) are more likely than men (38%) to say it is very important. Regionally, San Francisco Bay Area residents are more likely than others to say this issue is very important. “How important to you is the issue of expanding access to public libraries?” Likely Voters Only Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Don’t know Likely Voters 44% 31 14 9 2 Prop. 81 – Libraries Yes No 68% 15% 29 33 3 31 0 20 01 * For complete question wording, see question 18 in the survey questionnaire, page 23. -5- May 2006 California 2006 Elections Proposition 82: Public Preschool Education Tax Initiative Proposition 82 is a citizens’ initiative on the statewide ballot that would raise the income tax on highincome residents to fund voluntary, free preschool education for all four-year-olds in California. After hearing the text that will appear on the June ballot, 50 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes on Proposition 82, while 43 percent would vote no. Support for this initiative, which requires a simple majority to pass, was also around 50 percent in March (52% yes, 41% no) and April (51% yes, 40% no). Today’s findings point to a partisan division on Proposition 82, with Democrats (63%) strongly in favor and Republicans equally opposed (60%). Independents are more divided (51% yes, 42% no). While a solid majority of San Francisco Bay Area residents back this initiative, support falls below 50 percent in other major regions. Support is higher among Latinos than whites (62% to 44%), but is similar among those with (49% yes) and without (50% yes) children. Support declines sharply with age. “Proposition 82 is called the Public Preschool Education Tax Increase on Incomes Over $400,000 for Individuals; $800,000 for Couples Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.... If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 82?”* Likely Voters Only Yes No Don’t know All Likely Voters 50% 43 7 Party Dem 63% 28 9 Rep 36% 60 4 Ind 51% 42 7 Central Valley 40% 50 10 Region SF Bay Area 61% 32 7 Los Angeles 47% 46 7 Other Southern California 49% 43 8 How do Californians react to the fiscal practice of having a specific tax tied to a specific service, known as earmarking, which is what would occur if Proposition 82 passes? About half of likely voters (52%) say it is a good idea, while 34 percent think it is a bad idea. More Democrats (56%) and independents (57%) than Republicans (44%) say earmarking is a good idea. Among Proposition 82 supporters, 69 percent are in favor of this practice. Among those opposed to the measure, a majority (53%) think it is a bad idea. “Generally speaking do you think it is a good idea or a bad idea to have a specific tax directly tied to a specific service?” Likely Voters Only Good idea Bad idea Don't know All Likely Voters 52% 34 14 Prop. 82– Pre School Yes No 69% 18 13 36% 53 11 Regardless of their position on Proposition 82, eight in 10 likely voters think that attending preschool is very (57%) or somewhat important (25%) to a student’s success in kindergarten through grade 12. This finding was similar in PPIC’s March survey. Among those who support Proposition 82, nearly eight in 10 believe that attending preschool is very important to later school success. Among those opposed to Proposition 82, only one in three say that attending preschool is very important to later school success. * For complete question wording, see question 20 in the survey questionnaire, page 23. -6- State Fiscal Issues Governor’s Budget Proposal On May 12, Governor Schwarzenegger released a revised budget plan for the 2006-2007 fiscal year that includes a surge in new state revenues since January from personal income tax collections. Similar to the January budget, the May budget revision includes increased state spending for K-12 public schools, health and human services, higher education, corrections and prisons, and transportation—without any new taxes. The majority of Californians (57%) say they are satisfied with the governor’s budget plan, while three in 10 are not satisfied. Californians were somewhat more favorably disposed toward the 2006-2007 budget released in January (60% satisfied, 28% dissatisfied), but they were much less favorably disposed toward the governor’s revised budget last May (44% satisfied, 47% dissatisfied). There are partisan differences in satisfaction with the governor’s budget plans: Seven in 10 Republicans, compared to four in 10 Democrats and 55 percent of independents, are satisfied with the governor’s budget plan. Nonetheless, Democrats are more satisfied with the governor’s budget plan today than they were last May (26% satisfied, 64% dissatisfied). Overall, majorities across regional, age, education, and income groups are satisfied with the governor’s budget plan. “In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the governor's budget plan?” Satisfied Dissatisfied Haven't heard anything about the budget (volunteered) Don't know All Adults 57% 30 6 7 Dem 43% 40 8 9 Party Rep 71% 17 7 5 Ind 55% 30 9 6 Likely Voters 53% 32 7 8 We asked about three spending areas in which the governor has proposed to use the additional state revenues. Californians support the governor’s plans to increase K-12 public education funding (77%), reduce the amount of state debt and place money in reserve (76%), and fund levee repairs (67%). There is broad support across the state’s regions and demographic groups for using the additional money for these purposes. While there is little difference across party lines on funding levee repairs, Democrats and independents are more supportive of increased K-12 spending, and Republicans are far more supportive of reducing state debt and increasing reserves. “Do you favor or oppose using some of this additional money to …” Increase K-12 public education funding? Reduce the amount of state debt and place money in reserve? Fund levee repairs? Favor Oppose Don't know Favor Oppose Don't know Favor Oppose Don't know All Adults 77% 20 3 76 17 7 67 24 9 Dem 84% 14 2 74 20 6 72 21 7 Party Rep 62% 36 2 90 8 2 67 28 5 Ind 77% 21 2 76 19 5 71 24 5 Likely Voters 71% 27 2 84 12 4 70 24 6 -7- State Fiscal Issues Fiscal Perceptions Many fiscal experts, including the Legislative Analyst’s Office, maintain a cautious outlook with regard to the state’s budget situation because of an expected shortfall of revenue compared to expenditures in future years. Indeed, many Californians are expressing concern about the state’s budget situation, even though the state currently has additional revenues rather than the sizable deficits it experienced a few years ago. After Governor Schwarzenegger released his fiscal 2006-2007 revised budget on May 12, nearly six in 10 adults and 64 percent of likely voters considered the balance between spending and revenues a big problem. In January of this year, a similar 61 percent said the state’s budget situation was a big problem. In May 2005, a higher proportion of adults—71 percent—considered the budget situation a big problem. In January 2004 and January 2005, when the state actually faced a multibillion dollar gap between spending and revenues, seven in 10 Californians said the state’s budget situation was a big problem for California. Today, a majority of the residents in every region of the state consider the budget gap between spending and revenues to be a major problem. Independents (65%) are about as likely Democrats (61%) and Republicans (63%) to rate this issue as a big problem. Concern about the state’s fiscal situation increases with age, education, and income. “Do you think the state budget situation in California—that is, the balance between government spending and revenues—is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today?” Big problem Somewhat of a problem Not a problem Don't know All Adults 58% 31 5 6 Central Valley 60% 29 3 8 Region SF Bay Area 61% 28 5 6 Los Angeles 53% 35 7 5 Other Southern California 59% 32 4 5 Likely Voters 64% 30 2 4 Two in three Californians say there has been no improvement in the state’s budget situation over the past two years. While one in four thinks the state budget situation has improved, one in three believes it has remained the same, and one in three believes it has deteriorated. Likely voters are somewhat more inclined to say that improvements have occurred in the past two years, although their overall views are not that different from all adults. While four in 10 Republicans believe the budget situation has improved, far fewer Democrats and independents hold with this opinion. Those who approve of Schwarzenegger’s job performance mostly see improvements in the past two years (45%), while those who disapprove mostly see the budget getting worse (46%). Perceptions of improvements in the state budget are similar across major regions of the state, and tend to increase with age, education, and income. “In the past two years, do you think the state budget situation has improved, gotten worse, or stayed the same?” Improved Gotten worse Stayed the same Don't know All Adults 26% 32 34 8 Dem 21% 38 34 7 Party Rep 41% 20 31 8 Ind 27% 32 35 6 Likely Voters 32% 29 34 5 -8- State Fiscal Issues Spending Priorities Although many Californians express concern about the balance between government revenues and spending in the state budget, many would still like to see spending increases in three of the four major categories of the state budget—K-12 public education, health and human services, and public colleges and universities. Moreover, there is a strong appetite for increasing state spending on roads and infrastructure in the wake of discussions by the governor and legislature this year. Among the major items in the state budget, Californians are most interested in increasing spending on K-12 public education (68% of all adults, 61% of likely voters). About half of Republicans want more money spent on K-12 public schools compared to large majorities of Democrats (75%) and independents (69%). While majorities also want more spending on health and human services (60% of adults, 50% of likely voters) and higher education (57% of adults, 50% of likely voters), Democrats and independents are much more supportive than Republicans of increased spending in these areas. By contrast, just one in four adults would like to see more spending on corrections such as prisons—a preference that is similarly low across political groups. About six in 10 Californians want more state spending on roads and infrastructure (58% of adults, 63% of likely voters). There is solid majority support for spending in this area across political groups and regions (60% Central Valley, 60% Other Southern California, 59% San Francisco Bay Area, 55% Los Angeles). “For each area, please tell me if you think that the state government should spend more money than it does now, the same amount as now, or less money than now …” How about the K-12 public education system? How about health and human services? How about roads and other infrastructure projects? How about public colleges and universities? How about the state's corrections system, including prisons? More money Same amount of money Less money Don't know More money Same amount of money Less money Don't know More money Same amount of money Less money Don't know More money Same amount of money Less money Don't know More money Same amount of money Less money Don't know All Adults 68% 22 8 2 60 25 12 3 58 32 7 3 57 31 8 4 24 37 32 7 Dem 75% 18 4 3 69 22 7 2 58 31 7 4 65 27 7 1 25 35 35 5 Party Rep 51% 33 14 2 36 36 24 4 57 34 6 3 35 45 16 4 25 41 30 4 Ind 69% 20 8 3 61 24 12 3 63 28 6 3 56 37 4 3 19 43 33 5 Likely Voters 61% 28 9 2 50 31 16 3 63 29 5 3 50 38 9 3 23 40 33 4 - 9 - May 2006 State Fiscal Issues Fiscal Policy Preferences While Californians are satisfied with the governor’s budget plan, they prefer the approach of the Democrats in the legislature (35%) to that of the Republicans in the legislature (20%) or the governor (19%) when it comes to the tough choices involved in the state budget. Two years ago, 30 percent of adults supported the governor’s approach, while 31 percent favored the approach of the Democrats in the legislature. Sharp partisan differences exist today: two in three Democrats prefer the Democrats in the legislature, while four in 10 Republicans prefer the Republicans in the legislature and one in three prefer the governor’s approach. Independents are more divided: Three in 10 prefer the Democrats in the legislature, one in four favors the governor, and 16 percent prefer the GOP legislators. Preferences for the approach of the Democrats in the legislature is higher in the San Francisco Bay Area (44%) and Los Angeles (41%) than in other regions and is somewhat higher among Latinos (38%) than whites (31%) and among women (38%) than men (32%). “When it comes to the tough choices involved in the state budget, both in deciding how much Californians should pay in taxes and how to fund state programs, whose approach do you most prefer?” Democrats' in the legislature Republicans' in the legislature Governor Schwarzenegger's Other None (volunteered) Don’t know All Adults 35% 20 19 1 5 20 Dem 64% 5 11 1 4 15 Party Rep 6% 42 32 0 2 18 Ind 28% 16 23 1 7 25 Likely Voters 34% 21 22 1 5 17 Over half of Californians (55%) favor a state government with higher taxes and more services. Likely voters are more divided on this issue, with 49 percent favoring higher taxes and more services and 44 percent supporting lower taxes and fewer services. As for partisan differences, 68 percent of Democrats and 53 percent of independents prefer higher taxes and more services, while 66 percent of Republicans favor lower taxes and fewer services. Across regions, residents of the San Francisco Bay Area (59%) are the most likely to favor higher taxes and more services. Latinos (68%) are much more likely than whites (46%) to favor higher taxes and more services. Preference for lower taxes and fewer services increases with age, education, and income. “Which of the following statements do you agree with more—I’d rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, or I’d rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services?” Higher taxes and more services Lower taxes and fewer services Don’t know All Adults 55% 38 7 Dem 68% 26 6 Party Rep 28% 66 6 Ind 53% 41 6 Likely Voters 49% 44 7 - 10 - State Fiscal Issues Supermajority Vote While there are no fiscal reform measures under active consideration, proposals such as lowering the supermajority vote have often been discussed. In 2004, Proposition 56, which would have lowered the two-thirds threshold needed for passing a state budget, was rejected. Other ideas called for lowering the supermajority vote to pass local special taxes, but our previous surveys have found voters skeptical on this issue as well. Nearly four in 10 California residents and likely voters think that replacing the two-thirds vote requirement with a 55 percent majority vote for voters to pass local special taxes is a good idea, while over half think it is a bad idea. The percent of residents who think this local fiscal reform is a good idea has declined from 46 percent in June 2003 to 43 percent in January 2005 to 38 percent today. Democrats (43%) are more likely than Republicans (30%) and independents (37%) to say that replacing the local two-thirds vote for local taxes is a good idea, although support falls below a majority in all groups. Across California’s regions, residents of the Central Valley (33%) are the least likely to say this is a good idea. Latinos (42%) are more likely than whites (34%) to think this local fiscal reform is a good idea. The percent saying this is a good idea declines with age. “Spending and tax reforms have been proposed to address issues in the state budget. For each of the following, please indicate whether you think this is a good idea or a bad idea: How about replacing the two-thirds vote requirement with a 55 percent majority vote for voters to pass local special taxes?” Good idea Bad idea Don’t Know All Adults 38% 52 10 Dem 43% 48 9 Party Rep 30% 65 5 Ind 37% 57 6 Likely Voters 37% 57 6 Even though the governor and legislature have often failed to pass the state budget on time in recent years, fewer than half of Californians think it is a good idea to replace the two-thirds vote requirement with a 55 percent majority vote for the state legislature to pass a budget. The percent saying that this particular fiscal reform is a good idea has declined slightly over the past three years (46% in June 2003; 45% in January 2005; 42% today). Democrats (45%) are more likely than Republicans (35%) and independents (36%) to think this state fiscal reform is a good idea but, again, support falls below 50 percent in all these groups. Latinos (49%) are much more likely than whites (37%) to say that making it easier to pass the state budget is a good idea. There is a strong correlation between support for changing the local and state supermajority vote restrictions. Of those who think that changing the two-thirds vote requirement to a 55 percent majority for local special taxes is a good idea, seven in 10 also think that it is a good idea to replace the two-thirds vote with a 55 percent majority vote to pass a state budget. “How about replacing the two-thirds vote requirement with a 55 percent majority vote for the state legislature to pass a budget?” Good idea Bad idea Don’t Know All Adults 42% 46 12 Dem 45% 44 11 Party Rep 35% 57 8 Ind 36% 54 10 Likely Voters 40% 52 8 - 11 - May 2006 State Fiscal Issues State Comparisons When asked where California currently ranks in state and local government spending per capita and state and local tax burden per capita, most Californians believe that the state ranks average or higher on both issues. When comparing California to other states, nearly half of Californians say that government spending per capita is near the top (23%) or above average (23%), one in four says average (24%), and one in six says below average (12%) or near the bottom (5%). Across party lines, six in 10 Republicans think spending is above par, compared to half of independents and four in 10 Democrats. Regionally, residents of the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles are less likely than residents of the Central Valley and the Other Southern California region to say that spending is near the top or above average. Whites (51%) are more likely than Latinos (40%) to say that government per capita spending is higher than average. The belief that state and local government spending is higher than average increases slightly with income. According to the Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan tax research group, California in 2002 ranked 4th in state and local government spending per capita. “Where do you think California currently ranks in state and local government spending per capita? Compared to other states, is California’s spending per capita near the top, above average, average, below average, or near the bottom?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind Voters Near the top 23% 17% 33% 26% 23% Above average 23 23 27 23 25 Average 24 24 18 22 21 Below average 12 15 10 11 14 Near the bottom 57 2 5 5 Don't know 13 14 10 13 12 When it comes to rating the government tax burden, Californians are even more likely to think their state is a national leader. Nearly six in 10 residents think that California ranks near the top (29%) or above average (28%), one in five believes California’s tax burden is average (22%), and one in 10 believes that California ranks below average (6%) or near the bottom (4%). Across partisan lines, Republicans (72%) are much more likely than Democrats (55%) and independents (65%) to think California’s tax burden is higher than average. Latinos (42%) are much less likely than whites (65%) to say that the tax burden is near the top or above average. The belief that the tax burden is higher than average increases sharply with income. According to the Tax Foundation, California in 2005 ranked 11th in state and local tax burden per capita. “Where do you think California currently ranks in state and local tax burden per capita? Compared to other states, is California’s tax burden per capita near the top, above average, average, below average, or near the bottom?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind Voters Near the top 29% 27% 40% 32% 33% Above average 28 28 32 33 31 Average 22 21 13 18 17 Below average 68 5 5 6 Near the bottom 44 2 3 2 Don't know 11 12 8 9 11 - 12 - State Policies Infrastructure Priorities and Funding Californians will go the polls this November to vote on four infrastructure bond measures totaling about $37 billion, placed on the ballot by the legislature. This is the largest package of bonds in the state’s history and includes funds for education facilities, surface transportation, flood protection, and affordable housing. With 58 percent of Californians already in support of the state spending more money on roads and other infrastructure projects, how would they vote on the four bond measures that will each require a simple majority vote to pass in November? A $10 billion bond for school and university construction and renovation has the strongest support (74% adults, 68% likely voters). Democrats (80%) are much more likely to support this bond measure than independents (68%) and Republicans (59%), although majorities in all political groups support it. Support for this measure decreases with age, education, and income. When asked about a $20 billion bond for surface transportation projects, more than six in 10 Californians (62%) and likely voters (65%) would vote yes on this bond. Support is similar across political parties. Strong majorities across regions would vote yes. Six in 10 adults and likely voters (62% each) also support a $4 billion bond for flood protection projects. Majorities across political parties support this measure. Regionally, residents in the Central Valley (71%) and San Francisco Bay Area (70%) are more likely to vote yes on this bond than residents in Los Angeles (60%) and the Other Southern California region (55%). Latinos (71%) are much more likely than whites (58%) to support the flood protection bond. Another bond on the November ballot includes $3 billion for new affordable housing projects. Six in 10 adults (60%) support this bond, while likely voters are divided (49% yes, 47% no). A majority of Democrats (66%) and independents (58%) would vote yes, but a majority of Republicans (62%) oppose this measure. Support also decreases with age, education, and income. “The legislature recently passed a package of state bonds for the November ballot totaling about $37 billion for infrastructure projects such as education facilities, surface transportation, flood protection, and affordable housing to be paid through the state’s general funds with no new taxes. For each one, please tell me if you would vote yes or no if the election were held today. How about a bond of about…” $10 billion for school and university construction and renovation? $20 billion for surface transportation projects? $4 billion for flood protection projects? $3 billion for new affordable housing? Yes No Don't know Yes No Don't know Yes No Don't know Yes No Don't know All Adults 74% 22 4 62 32 6 62 34 4 60 37 3 Dem 80% 16 4 63 30 7 66 29 5 66 29 5 Party Rep 59% 37 4 61 35 4 54 42 4 34 62 4 Ind 68% 28 4 62 33 5 59 37 4 58 39 3 Likely Voters 68% 28 4 65 30 5 62 35 3 49 47 4 - 13 - State Policies Governor’s Approval Ratings Governor Schwarzenegger’s job approval ratings continue to be low, marking a year of approval ratings below 50 percent. For adults today, 36 percent approve and 52 percent disapprove of his performance in office. Likely voters are more positive (42% approve, 48% disapprove). His approval rating is similar to last year (40% May 2005), and much lower than two years ago (64% May 2004). A strong majority of Republicans (65%) approve of the governor’s job performance, while most Democrats disapprove (69%); independents remain divided (41% approve, 49% disapprove). The governor’s approval ratings among political groups are similar when we compare those today to those of last May (Democrats 22%, Republicans 72%, independents 42%). Across regions today, approval ratings are higher in the Central Valley (43%) and the Other Southern California region (39%) than in Los Angeles (32%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (30%). Whites (48%) are more than twice as likely as Latinos (19%) to approve of the governor’s job performance, and men are more favorable towards the governor than are women (40% to 32%). Governor Schwarzenegger’s job approval ratings also increase with age, education, and income. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 36% 52 12 Party Dem 21% 69 10 Rep 65% 22 13 Region Ind 41% 49 10 Central Valley 43% 47 10 SF Bay Area 30% 56 14 Los Angeles 32% 55 13 Other Southern California 39% 46 15 Likely Voters 42% 48 10 With the release of his revised budget proposal, which includes greater than anticipated revenues for additional spending, Schwarzenegger still receives similar ratings on his handling of the budget and taxes as on his job overall (34% approve, 52% disapprove). Since January, when the governor’s original budget plan was released, his ratings have remained unchanged. Mirroring his overall ratings, Republicans (63%) continue to be more supportive of the governor’s fiscal actions than Democrats (19%) and independents (42%). Approval ratings remain low across regions. While 17 percent of Latinos approve of the governor’s handling of fiscal issues, almost half of whites approve (46%). Men are more likely than women (39% to 29%) to approve of the governor on this issue, and approval increases with age, education, and income. “Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Schwarzenegger is handling the issue of the state budget and taxes?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 34% 52 14 Party Dem 19% 69 12 Rep 63% 25 12 Region Ind 42% 47 11 Central Valley 35% 47 18 SF Bay Area 31% 55 14 Los Angeles 32% 56 12 Other Southern California 40% 47 13 Likely Voters 43% 47 10 - 14 - State Policies Legislature’s Approval Ratings Despite their bipartisan success earlier this month—passing the largest package of infrastructure bond measures in state history—the legislature still receives low approval ratings. Twenty-six percent of all adults approve of the legislature’s handling of its job, while 54 percent disapprove. These low ratings are similar to one year ago (26% approve, 58% disapprove) and are relatively unchanged since the beginning of this year (29% approve, 57% disapprove). Among likely voters today, 23 percent approve while 61 percent disapprove. Nearly half or more of residents across all political groups, regions of the state, and demographic groups disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its responsibilities. Republicans (63%) and independents (59%) are more negative in their ratings than Democrats (54%), although majorities across parties disapprove. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 26% 54 20 Party Dem 26% 54 20 Rep 23% 63 14 Region Ind 24% 59 17 Central Valley 23% 57 20 SF Bay Area 28% 52 20 Los Angeles 27% 53 20 Other Southern California 27% 56 17 Likely Voters 23% 61 16 When asked about the legislature’s handling of transportation and other infrastructure projects, 30 percent approve and 51 percent disapprove. This marks an improvement from March when legislators failed to pass an infrastructure bond package (23% approve, 54% disapprove). Latinos (38%) are more approving than whites (25%) on the legislature’s handling of this issue. “Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling the issue of transportation and other infrastructure projects?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 30% 51 19 Party Dem 31% 51 18 Rep 24% 57 19 Region Ind 26% 57 17 Central Valley 31% 50 19 SF Bay Area 29% 52 19 Los Angeles 31% 49 20 Other Southern California 29% 52 19 Likely Voters 24% 57 19 Californians are more positive about their individual representatives than about the legislature as a whole. When asked to rate the job performance of the legislators representing their own assembly and senate districts, four in 10 adults (39%) and likely voters (41%) approve of their performance. These ratings are similar to October 2005 (38% approve) but much lower than a year ago (47% approve). Individual representatives’ approval ratings fall below a majority for all political groups, regions of the state, and demographic groups. These approval ratings increase with education and income but do not reach 50 percent in any group. Latinos and whites, and men and women, give similar approval ratings. - 15 - May 2006 State Policies Redistricting Reform In last November’s special election, voters defeated Proposition 77, a citizens’ initiative that would have taken the responsibility of redrawing California’s voting districts away from the governor and legislature and given it to a panel of three retired judges. Although Californians voted this measure down, they believed then and continue to believe now that the redistricting process needs change. Nearly two in three residents today say the redistricting process needs major (40%) or minor changes (23%), while only one in four (23%) says it is fine the way it is. Likely voters express similar views about redistricting. Last October, 69 percent of likely voters said the system needed major (44%) or minor changes (25%), and one year ago, 63 percent also agreed (37% major changes, 26% minor changes). Across parties, independents (46% major, 24% minor) and Republicans (39% major, 26% minor) are more likely than Democrats (38% major, 21% minor) to believe the system needs changes. Across regions, Los Angeles residents are the most likely to believe the system needs major changes (47%) as compared to residents of the San Francisco Bay Area (39%), the Central Valley (38%), or the Other Southern California region (37%). “As you may know, redistricting is the process in which the physical boundaries of voting districts are changed. Do you think the way the governor and legislature go about the redistricting process in California is in need of major changes, minor changes, or is it fine the way it is?” Major changes Minor changes Fine the way it is Don't know All Adults 40% 23 23 14 Dem 38% 21 28 13 Party Rep 39% 26 22 13 Ind 46% 24 18 12 Likely Voters 42% 22 24 12 Although voters did not support the three-member panel of retired judges to lead the redistricting process, six in 10 adults (60%) and likely voters (62%) do support having an independent commission of citizens take this responsibility. When asked a similar question in September 2004, residents were divided about establishing an independent state commission (39% favor, 40% oppose). Seven years ago, likely voters were also divided when asked how they would vote on a ballot initiative that would establish an independent commission (46% yes, 41% no). Today, the idea of an independent citizens’ commission receives majority support across parties. About six in 10 residents across regions and racial/ethnic groups favor an independent commission for redistricting. Favor increases with education and income. Of those who say the redistricting process is in need of major changes, seven in 10 favor (71%) the independent commission. “Would you favor or oppose a redistricting reform that requires an independent commission of citizens, instead of the state legislature and governor, to adopt a new redistricting plan after each census?” Favor Oppose Don't know All Adults 60% 25 15 Dem 56% 31 13 Party Rep 65% 22 13 Ind 61% 27 12 Likely Voters 62% 25 13 - 16 - State Policies Term Limits Reform Residents continue to believe in the state legislative term limits established by initiative in 1990. Sixty percent of adults and 67 percent of likely voters say it’s a good thing for California to limit the number of terms that members of the state senate and state assembly can hold their elected offices. Five out of six times this question has been asked, majorities of adults have said term limits are a good thing (65%, October 1998; 45% December 2001; 61%, September 2004; 57%, October 2005; 60% today). Today, although majorities across parties agree, Republicans (74%) are much more likely than independents (63%) or Democrats to (59%) say term limits are a good thing. Residents of the Other Southern California region (66%) and the Central Valley (62%) are more likely than residents of Los Angeles (56%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (54%) to believe that term limits are beneficial, and whites are much more likely than Latinos (67% to 48%) to say they are a good thing. As age, income, and education levels increase, residents are more likely to say term limits are a good thing for California. “The California Legislature has operated under term limits since 1990, meaning that members of the state senate and state assembly are limited in the number of terms they can hold their elected office. Do you think that term limits are a good thing or a bad thing for California, or do they make no difference?” Good thing Bad thing No difference Don't know All Adults 60% 15 21 4 Dem 59% 21 17 3 Party Rep 74% 10 15 1 Ind 63% 15 19 3 Likely Voters 67% 18 13 2 Demonstrating their strong belief in the current term limit system, which restricts a legislator to serving six years in the assembly and eight years in the senate, over two in three adults (68%) and likely voters (67%) oppose changing the system to allow members to serve up to 14 years of total legislative service in either branch. Last October, 62 percent of residents also expressed opposition to this proposed change. Only about three in 10 today (28%) and last October (29%) said they would favor this change. This idea receives strong majority opposition across political and demographic groups. About seven in 10 Republicans and independents, and 63 percent of Democrats oppose this idea. Seven in 10 residents in Los Angeles, the Other Southern California region, and the Central Valley, and six in 10 residents in the San Francisco Bay Area oppose the idea. Opposition decreases with education and income, but increases slightly with age. Of those who say term limits are a good thing, 81 percent oppose this change. “Under current term limits, a legislator is allowed to serve six years in the state assembly and eight years in the state senate. Would you favor or oppose a change in term limits that would allow members to serve up to 14 years of total legislative service in either branch?” Favor Oppose Don't know All Adults 28% 68 4 Dem 33% 63 4 Party Rep 25% 72 3 Ind 28% 68 4 Likely Voters 30% 67 3 - 17 - May 2006 State Policies Campaign Finance Reform Majorities of adults (55%) and likely voters (64%) think campaign contributions are currently having a bad effect on the public policy decisions made by elected officials in Sacramento. Only one in 10 believes that contributions are having a good effect, while one in four thinks they make no difference in the policy arena. These findings are similar to last October (53% bad effect) and September 1999 (56% bad effect). Residents across political parties and demographic groups have negative perceptions of the effects of campaign contributions, but independents (65%) and Democrats (63%) are more likely than Republicans (57%) to believe they have a bad effect. San Francisco Bay Area residents (61%) are more likely than residents of the Other Southern California region (56%), the Central Valley (52%), or Los Angeles (50%) to believe contributions have a bad effect, and negative attitudes increase with age, education, and income. While most whites (64%) say campaign contributions are having a bad effect on policy decisions, Latinos are divided on this issue (36% bad effect, 21% good effect, 30% no difference). “Do you think that campaign contributions are currently having a good effect or a bad effect on the public policy decisions made by state elected officials in Sacramento, or are campaign contributions making no difference?” Good effect Bad effect No difference Both (volunteered) Don't know All Adults 12% 55 23 1 9 Dem 11% 63 17 1 8 Party Rep 10% 57 21 2 10 Ind 7% 65 21 1 6 Likely Voters 8% 64 18 2 8 Half of adults (47%) and likely voters (51%) would favor a system of public funding for campaigns, even if it cost each taxpayer a few dollars a year to run. Public support for this proposal is at a relative high point today compared to PPIC survey results over the past six years (38% August 2000; 50% November 2002; 41% October 2003; 35% September 2004; 45% October 2005; 47% today). Democrats (55%) and independents (51%) are more likely to favor this proposal than Republicans (44%). San Francisco Bay Area (58%) residents are more likely to favor this idea, while Central Valley (50%), Los Angeles (49%), and Other Southern California (48%) residents are more likely to oppose it. A majority of whites (52%) supports public funding, while a majority of Latinos (54%) opposes it. Favor for this idea increases with age, education, and income. Of those who say campaign contributions are having a bad effect on policy, 57 percent favor public funding and 38 percent oppose it. “Would you favor or oppose having a system of public funding for state and legislative campaigns in California if it cost each taxpayer a few dollars a year to run?” Favor Oppose Don't know All Adults 47% 46 7 Dem 55% 40 5 Party Rep 44% 50 6 Ind 51% 46 3 Likely Voters 51% 44 5 - 18 - Survey Methodology The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, research director and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance in research and writing from Dean Bonner, project manager for this survey, and survey research associates Lunna Lopes, Jennifer Paluch, and Sonja Petek. The survey was conducted with funding from The James Irvine Foundation and benefited from discussions with Irvine Foundation staff and grantees, as well as from regional voter focus groups funded by the Foundation; however, the survey methods, questions, and content of the report were solely determined by Mark Baldassare. The findings of this survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,000 California adult residents interviewed between May 14 and May 21, 2006. Interviewing took place on weekday nights and weekend days, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted telephone numbers were called. All telephone exchanges in California were eligible for calling. Telephone numbers in the survey sample were called up to six times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Each interview took an average of 19 minutes to complete. Interviewing was conducted in English or Spanish. Accent on Languages translated the survey into Spanish with assistance from Renatta DeFever. Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas, Inc. conducted the telephone interviewing. We used recent U.S. Census and state figures to compare the demographic characteristics of the survey sample with characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the census and state figures. The survey data in this report were statistically weighted to account for any demographic differences. The sampling error for the total sample of 2,000 adults is +/- 2 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 2 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger: For the 1,484 registered voters, it is +/- 2.5 percent; for the 986 likely voters it is +/- 3 percent; for the 435 Democratic primary likely voters it is +/- 5 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. Throughout the report, we present results for four geographic regions accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “SF Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, and “Other Southern California” includes Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. Residents from all other areas, such as the north coast, central coast, and mountain counties, are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters in this report. However, sample sizes for these less populated areas of California are not large enough to report separately in tables and text. We present specific results for Latinos because they account for about 30 percent of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest growing voter groups. The sample sizes for African Americans and Asians are not large enough for separate statistical analysis. We do compare the opinions of registered Democrats, Republicans, and independents. The “independents” category includes those who are registered to vote as “decline to state.” We also include the responses of “likely voters”— those who are most likely to vote in the state’s elections. We compare PPIC Statewide Survey responses to earlier PPIC Statewide Surveys to analyze trends over time in California. - 19 - PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: SPECIAL SURVEY ON THE CALIFORNIA STATE BUDGET MAY 14 – 21, 2006 2,000 CALIFORNIA ADULT RESIDENTS: ENGLISH AND SPANISH MARGIN OF ERROR +/-2% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE 1. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California? 36% approve 52 disapprove 12 don't know 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Schwarzenegger is handling the issue of the state budget and taxes? 34% approve 52 disapprove 14 don't know 3. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job? 26% approve 54 disapprove 20 don't know 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling the issue of transportation and other infrastructure projects? 30% approve 51 disapprove 19 don't know 4a. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that the state legislators representing your assembly and state senate districts are doing at this time? 39% approve 42 disapprove 3 mixed (volunteered) 16 don't know 5. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 35% right direction 57 wrong direction 8 don't know 6. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 37% good times 52 bad times 11 don't know 7. On another topic, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote? 74% yes 25 no 1 don't know [ask q.7a] [skip to q.23] [skip to q.23] 7a. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or as an independent? 42% Democratic Party 34 Republican Party 19 independent 5 another party (specify) [skip to q.9] [skip to q.10] [ask q.8a] [skip to q.10] 8a. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party? 29% Republican party 39 Democratic party 29 neither (volunteered) 3 don't know [Responses recorded for questions 8b through 22 are from likely voters only. All other responses are from all adults, except where noted.] 8b. California voters like yourself will be able to choose between voting in the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or selecting a nonpartisan ballot on June 6th. All three ballots include state proposition measures. Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or on the nonpartisan ballot? 21% Democratic primary 8 Republican primary 54 nonpartisan ballot 17 don't know [ask q.9] [skip to q.10] [skip to q.10] [skip to q.10] 9. If the Democratic primary for governor were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? [rotate names and then ask “or someone else”] 35% Phil Angelides, state treasurer 32 Steve Westly, state controller 33 other/don’t know - 21 - 10. How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2006 governor's election—very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 18% very closely 50 fairly closely 24 not too closely 6 not at all closely 2 don't know 11. In the past month, have you seen any television advertisements by the candidates for governor? 81% yes 19 no [ask q.11a] [skip to q.12] 11a.Whose ads have you seen the most—Phil Angelides' or Steve Westly's? 33% Phil Angelides' ads 35 Steve Westly's ads 27 both equally (volunteered) 5 other/don't know 12. In deciding who to vote for in the election for governor, how important to you are the candidates' performances in public debates—very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 33% very important 41 somewhat important 14 not too important 10 not at all important 2 don't know 12a.Californians will go to the polls to elect a governor in 2006. Which one issue would you like to hear the candidates talk about this year? [code, don’t read] 24% immigration, illegal immigration 23 education, schools 12 state budget, deficit, taxes 10 economy, jobs 4 infrastructure 3 gas prices 3 environment, pollution 2 health care, health costs, insurance 2 traffic, transportation 11 other (specify) 6 don’t know If these were the candidates in the November 2006 governor’s election… [rotate questions and pairs for questions 13 and 14 and then ask “or someone else”] 13. Would you vote for… 38% Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican 38 Phil Angelides, a Democrat 24 other/don't know 14. Would you vote for… 36% Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican 36 Steve Westly, a Democrat 28 other/don't know Next, please tell me if you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of each of these candidates for governor or don’t you know enough about him to have an opinion? [rotate questions 15 to 17] 15. How about Arnold Schwarzenegger? 45% favorable 47 unfavorable 8 don't know 16. How about Phil Angelides? 29% favorable 26 unfavorable 45 don't know 17. How about Steve Westly? 31% favorable 19 unfavorable 50 don't know Next, we have a few questions to ask you about the propositions on the upcoming June ballot. [rotate 2 blocks: (1) questions 18, 19 (2) questions 20, 21, 22] - 22 - 18. Proposition 81 is called the California Reading and Literacy Improvement and Public Library Construction and Renovation Bond Act of 2006. It provides for a bond issue in the amount not to exceed a total of $600 million for the construction and renovation of public library facilities in order to expand access to reading and literacy programs in California's public education system. It expands access to public library services for all residents of California. Fiscal impacts include a state cost of about $1.2 billion over 30 years to pay off both the principal and interest costs of the bond and one-time local costs statewide of about $320 million for local matching contributions. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 81? 51% yes 41 no 8 don't know 19. How important to you is the issue of expanding access to public libraries—very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 44% very important 31 somewhat important 14 not too important 9 not at all important 2 don't know 20. Proposition 82 is called the Preschool Education Tax on Incomes Over $400,000 for Individuals; $800,000 for Couples, Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute. It establishes the right to voluntary preschool for all four-year-olds and is funded by a 1.7% tax on individual income over $400,000; couples' income over $800,000. Fiscal impacts include increased annual revenues of $2.1 billion in 2007-2008, growing with the economy in future years. All revenues would be spent on the new preschool program. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 82? 50% yes 43 no 7 don't know [rotate questions 21 and 22] 21. Generally speaking do you think it is a good idea or a bad idea to have a specific tax directly tied to a specific service? 52% good idea 34 bad idea 14 don't know 22. How important is attending preschool to a student's success in kindergarten through grade 12—very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 57% very important 25 somewhat important 9 not too important 7 not at all important 2 don't know 23. On another issue, do you think the state budget situation in California—that is, the balance between government spending and revenues—is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today? 58% big problem 31 somewhat of a problem 5 not a problem 6 don't know 24. In the past two years, do you think the state budget situation has improved, gotten worse, or stayed the same? 26% improved 32 gotten worse 34 stayed the same 8 don't know Now, I am going to ask about specific areas where the state of California spends money. For each area, please tell me if you think that the state government should spend more money than it does now, the same amount as now, or less money than now. [rotate questions 25 to 29] 25. How about the state's corrections system, including prisons? 24% more money 37 same amount of money 32 less money 7 don't know 26. How about the K-12 public education system? 68% more money 22 same amount of money 8 less money 2 don't know 27. How about public colleges and universities? 57% more money 31 same amount of money 8 less money 4 don't know - 23 - May 2006 28. How about health and human services? 60% more money 25 same amount of money 12 less money 3 don't know 29. How about roads and other infrastructure projects? 58% more money 32 same amount of money 7 less money 3 don't know 30. Governor Schwarzenegger proposed a budget plan for the next fiscal year that includes increased spending on K-12 public education, health and human services, higher education, corrections and prisons, and transportation. The plan includes no new taxes. In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the Governor's budget plan? 57% satisfied 30 dissatisfied 6 haven't heard anything about the budget (volunteered) 7 don't know The state will have somewhat more revenue this year than was expected. Do you favor or oppose the following proposals for how to use this year’s additional money in next year’s budget, which begins on July 1, 2006? [rotate questions 31 to 32a] 31. Do you favor or oppose using some of this additional money to reduce the amount of state debt and place money in reserve? 76% favor 17 oppose 7 don't know 32. Do you favor or oppose using some of this additional money to increase K-12 public education funding? 77% favor 20 oppose 3 don't know 32a.Do you favor or oppose using some of this additional money to fund levee repairs? 67% favor 24 oppose 9 don't know 33. When it comes to the tough choices involved in the state budget, both in deciding how much Californians should pay in taxes and how to fund state programs, whose approach do you most prefer—[rotate] (1) Governor Schwarzenegger's, (2) the Democrats' in the legislature, [or] (3) the Republicans' in the legislature? 35% the Democrats' in the legislature 20 the Republicans' in the legislature 19 Governor Schwarzenegger's 1 other answer (specify) 5 none (volunteered) 20 don't know 34. In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more—I'd rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, or I'd rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services? 55% higher taxes and more services 38 lower taxes and fewer services 7 don't know Spending and tax reforms have been proposed to address issues in the state budget. For each of the following, please indicate whether you think this is a good idea or a bad idea. [rotate questions 35 and 36] 35. How about replacing the two-thirds vote requirement with a 55 percent majority vote for voters to pass local special taxes? 38% good idea 52 bad idea 10 don't know 36. How about replacing the two-thirds vote requirement with a 55 percent majority vote for the state legislature to pass a budget? 42% good idea 46 bad idea 12 don't know On another topic, [rotate questions 37 and 38] - 24 - 37. Where do you think California currently ranks in state and local government spending per capita? Compared to other states, is California's spending per capita near the top, above average, average, below average, or near the bottom? 23% near the top 23 above average 24 average 12 below average 5 near the bottom 13 don't know 38. Where do you think California currently ranks in state and local tax burden per capita? Compared to other states, is California's tax burden per capita near the top, above average, average, below average, or near the bottom? 29% near the top 28 above average 22 average 6 below average 4 near the bottom 11 don't know 39. As you may know, redistricting is the process in which the physical boundaries of voting districts are changed. Do you think the way the governor and legislature go about the redistricting process in California is in need of major changes, minor changes, or is it fine the way it is? 40% major changes 23 minor changes 23 fine the way it is 14 don't know 40. Would you favor or oppose a redistricting reform that requires an independent commission of citizens, instead of the state legislature and governor, to adopt a new redistricting plan after each census? 60% favor 25 oppose 15 don't know 41. On another topic, the California legislature has operated under term limits since 1990, meaning that members of the state senate and state assembly are limited in the number of terms they can hold their elected office. Do you think that term limits are a good thing or a bad thing for California, or do they make no difference? 60% good thing 15 bad thing 21 no difference 4 don't know 42. Under current term limits, a legislator is allowed to serve six years in the state assembly and eight years in the state senate. Would you favor or oppose a change in term limits that would allow members to serve up to 14 years of total legislative service in either branch? 28% favor 68 oppose 4 don't know 43. Changing topics, do you think that campaign contributions are currently having a good effect or a bad effect on the public policy decisions made by state elected officials in Sacramento, or are campaign contributions making no difference? 12% good effect 55 bad effect 23 making no difference 1 both (volunteered) 9 don't know 44. Would you favor or oppose having a system of public funding for state and legislative campaigns in California if it cost each taxpayer a few dollars a year to run? 47% favor 46 oppose 7 don't know 45. Next, do you approve or disapprove of the governor's plan to spend $222 billion over 10 years on infrastructure projects, including surface transportation, education facilities, air quality, water and flood control, jails and prisons, and courts? 70% approve 21 disapprove 9 don't know 46. Next, you may know the term "infrastructure" refers to a variety of public works projects. Which of the following do you think should have the top priority for additional state funding—[read rotated list and then ask "or something else?"] surface transportation, education facilities, flood protection? 50% education facilities 24 surface transportation 15 flood protection 7 something else (specify) 4 don't know - 25 - May 2006 The legislature recently passed a package of state bonds for the November ballot totaling about $37 billion for infrastructure projects such as education facilities, surface transportation, flood protection, and affordable housing to be paid through the state’s general funds with no new taxes. For each one, please tell me if you would vote yes or no if the election were held today. [rotate questions 47 to 48a] 47. How about a bond of about $20 billion for surface transportation projects? 62% yes 32 no 6 don't know 47a. How about a bond of about $10 billion for school and university construction and renovation? 74% yes 22 no 4 don't know 48. How about a bond of about $4 billion for flood protection projects? 62% yes 34 no 4 don't know 48a.How about a bond of about $3 billion for new affordable housing? 60% yes 37 no 3 don't know 49. Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 10% very liberal 19 somewhat liberal 31 middle-of-the-road 26 somewhat conservative 10 very conservative 4 don't know 50. Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics—a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 21% great deal 45 fair amount 27 only a little 6 none 1 don't know [D1-D12: demographic questions] - 26 - PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Advisory Committee Angela Blackwell Founder and Chief Executive Officer PolicyLink Paul Brest President The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Mollyann Brodie Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley James E. Canales President The James Irvine Foundation Matthew K. Fong President Strategic Advisory Group William Hauck President California Business Roundtable Dennis A. Hunt Vice President Communications and Public Affairs The California Endowment Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Carol S. Larson President and Chief Executive Officer The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Monica Lozano Publisher and Chief Executive Officer La Opinión Donna Lucas CEO Lucas Public Affairs Dan Rosenheim News Director KPIX-TV Carol Stogsdill President Stogsdill Consulting Cathy Taylor Vice President and Editorial Commentary Director Orange County Register Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. - 27 - PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA Board of Directors Thomas C. Sutton, Chair Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Pacific Life Insurance Company David W. Lyon President and Chief Executive Officer Public Policy Institute of California Linda Griego President and Chief Executive Officer Griego Enterprises, Inc. Edward K. Hamilton Chairman Hamilton, Rabinovitz & Alschuler, Inc. Gary K. Hart Founder Institute for Education Reform California State University, Sacramento Cheryl White Mason Vice-President Litigation Legal Department Hospital Corporation of America Ki Suh Park Design and Managing Partner Gruen Associates Constance L. Rice Co-Director The Advancement Project Walter B. Hewlett Director Center for Computer Assisted Research in the Humanities Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center Advisory Council Clifford W. Graves General Manager Community Development Department City of Los Angeles Elizabeth G. Hill Legislative Analyst State of California Hilary W. Hoynes Associate Professor Department of Economics University of California, Davis Andrés E. Jiménez Director California Policy Research Center University of California Office of the President Norman R. King Director, University Transportation Center California State University, San Bernardino Daniel A. Mazmanian School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Dean Misczynski Director California Research Bureau Rudolf Nothenberg Chief Administrative Officer (Retired) City and County of San Francisco Manuel Pastor Professor, Latin American & Latino Studies University of California, Santa Cruz Peter Schrag Contributing Editor The Sacramento Bee James P. Smith Senior Economist RAND Corporation PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 800 O San Francisco, California 94111 Phone: (415) 291-4400 O Fax: (415) 291-4401 www.ppic.org O info@ppic.org" } ["___content":protected]=> string(102) "

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" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(119) "https://www.ppic.org/publication/ppic-statewide-survey-special-survey-on-the-california-state-budget-may-2006/s_506mbs/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(8547) ["ID"]=> int(8547) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "1" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:38:34" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(3765) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(8) "S 506MBS" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(8) "s_506mbs" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(12) "S_506MBS.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(7) "1021641" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(93296) "PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY MAY 2006 Public Policy Institute of California Special Survey on the California State Budget in collaboration with The James Irvine Foundation Mark Baldassare Research Director & Survey Director The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) is a private operating foundation established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. The Institute is dedicated to improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. PPIC’s research agenda focuses on three program areas: population, economy, and governance and public finance. Studies within these programs are examining the underlying forces shaping California’s future, cutting across a wide range of public policy concerns, including education, health care, immigration, income distribution, welfare, urban growth, and state and local finance. PPIC was created because three concerned citizens – William R. Hewlett, Roger W. Heyns, and Arjay Miller – recognized the need for linking objective research to the realities of California public policy. Their goal was to help the state’s leaders better understand the intricacies and implications of contemporary issues and make informed public policy decisions when confronted with challenges in the future. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. David W. Lyon is founding President and Chief Executive Officer of PPIC. Thomas C. Sutton is Chair of the Board of Directors. Public Policy Institute of California 500 Washington Street, Suite 800 • San Francisco, California 94111 Telephone: (415) 291-4400 • Fax: (415) 291-4401 info@ppic.org • www.ppic.org Preface The PPIC Statewide Survey series provides policymakers, the media, and the general public with objective, advocacy-free information on the perceptions, opinions, and public policy preferences of California residents. Inaugurated in April 1998, the survey series has generated a database that includes the responses of more than 140,000 Californians. The current survey is the seventh in a series of special surveys on the California State Budget, begun in June 2003 and conducted in collaboration with The James Irvine Foundation. This survey series seeks to raise public awareness, inform decisionmakers, and stimulate public discussion about the current state budget and the underlying state and local finance systems. The current survey focuses on the 2006 election and state budget issues. It examines voters’ preferences on June 6 primary ballot issues, including the Democratic gubernatorial primary and two state propositions. Over the years, California voters have made significant fiscal decisions for the state at the ballot box. In June, the state’s voters will again have an important impact on the state and local fiscal system when they vote on a state bond measure for local libraries and an initiative that would raise taxes on the wealthy to pay for preschool for all four-year-olds. While the governor and legislature face the challenge of passing a state budget for the fiscal year beginning July 1, they also seek to address a persistent gap between state spending and state revenue and to find ways to fund improvements in the state’s infrastructure. This public opinion survey offers an opportunity to examine Californians’ views on elected officials, fiscal issues, and reform proposals. This report presents the responses of 2,000 adult residents throughout the state on a wide range of issues: • The 2006 elections, including likely voter preferences in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, potential match-ups of major party gubernatorial candidates in November, candidate popularity ratings, voters’ attention to election news and advertising, and issues of importance to voters. The survey also measures support for Propositions 81 (the library bond) and 82 (the preschool initiative) on the June ballot and tracks voters’ attitudes related to support for these ballot measures. • State fiscal issues, including attitudes toward the governor’s budget plan and related fiscal proposals, perceptions of the severity of the state budget situation and fiscal trends in the past two years, priorities for state spending on major categories of the state budget, fiscal policy preferences, attitudes towards lowering the two-thirds vote requirement for passing the state budget and local special taxes, and perceptions of state and local government spending and taxes in California compared to other states. • State policy issues, including support for state bond measures to pay for infrastructure projects headed for the November ballot, overall approval ratings of Governor Schwarzenegger and the state legislature, approval ratings for the governor on the state budget and taxes, approval ratings for local representatives to the state senate and assembly, attitudes toward political redistricting, legislative term limits, and campaign finance issues and related reform proposals. • The extent to which Californians may differ with regard to attitudes toward fiscal, political, and governance issues by party affiliation, demographics, race/ethnicity, and region of residence. This is the 67th PPIC Statewide Survey, which has included a number of special editions on the Central Valley (11/99, 3/01, 4/02, 4/03, 4/04), Los Angeles County (3/03, 3/04, 3/05), Orange County (9/01, 12/02, 12/03, 12/04), San Diego County (7/02), education (4/05, 4/06) population (5/01, 12/05), land use (11/01, 11/02), housing (11/04), the environment (6/00, 6/02, 7/03, 11/03, 7/04, 7/05, 2/06), the state budget (6/03, 1/04, 5/04, 1/05, 5/05, 1/06), California’s future (8/04), and the initiative process (08/05, 09/05, 10/05, 11/05). Copies of this report may be ordered by e-mail (order@ppic.org) or phone (415-291-4400). Copies of this and earlier reports are posted on the publications page of the PPIC web site (www.ppic.org). For questions about the survey, please contact survey@ppic.org. -i- - ii - Contents Preface Press Release California 2006 Elections State Fiscal Issues State Policies Survey Methodology Survey Questions and Results Survey Advisory Committee i v 1 7 13 19 21 27 - iii - Press Release Para ver este comunicado de prensa en español, por favor visite nuestra página de internet: http://www.ppic.org/main/pressreleaseindex.asp SPECIAL SURVEY ON THE CALIFORNIA STATE BUDGET STATE OF UNCERTAINTY: CALIFORNIANS UNDECIDED ABOUT PRIMARY, DIVIDED ABOUT LEADERSHIP, FUTURE Governor’s May Budget is Popular, But He Gets Little Credit; Early Support for Infrastructure Measures SAN FRANCISCO, California, May 25, 2006 — Californians’ growing economic angst and chronic doubts about the quality and probity of state government are bringing less, not more, clarity to the final weeks of the primary campaign, according to a survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) with funding from The James Irvine Foundation. The upshot? Far higher levels of undecided voters than in previous years. The context: Rising gas prices, a declining stock market, and inflation worries have taken their toll on consumer confidence: 52 percent of state residents say they expect bad times financially in the coming year, up from 43 percent in March. A majority of Californians (57%) think the state is headed in the wrong direction – and their assessment of state elected leaders is equally glum. State residents are far more likely to disapprove than to approve of the job performance of the governor (52% disapprove, 36% approve) and state legislature (54% disapprove, 26% approve). The consequences: With the Democratic gubernatorial primary just two weeks away, one third of Democratic primary likely voters (33%) are still undecided. By comparison, in the weeks before the 2002 and 1998 gubernatorial primaries, about one in four voters were still undecided. Further, in hypothetical match-ups between Democratic challengers and the incumbent governor, about one in four voters are undecided or name others, compared to one in six voters in 2002. “California voters seem very indecisive at the moment,” says PPIC survey director Mark Baldassare. “But it’s not because they are uninformed; they are simply uncertain about the type of leadership they want for the state.” In fact, more likely voters say they are very closely or fairly closely following news about candidates for governor today than a month ago (68% today to 60% in April). And most Democratic primary likely voters (79%) say they have seen advertisements for State Treasurer Phil Angelides (26%), State Controller Steve Westly (28%), or both (25%). Women the Deciders in Democratic Primary Angelides and Westly are locked in a statistical dead heat among Democratic primary likely voters (35% to 32%). Angelides has made the largest gains in the past month – up from 20 percent in April compared to Westly’s 26 percent. Still, the situation is highly volatile because large number of Democratic primary voters (33%) are undecided or would choose someone else. Who are these undecided voters? Women. They are more likely than men (37% to 28%) to say they are undecided. “Since women outnumber men in the Democratic electorate, undecided women will be pivotal in determining the winner in this primary election,” says Baldassare. Currently, men favor Angelides by a wide margin (43% Angelides vs. 29% Westly) and women favor Westly by a narrower margin (35% Westly vs. 28% Angelides). But regardless of who wins the June Democratic primary, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger appears to be headed for a close race come fall. The race is a toss-up in hypothetical contests between Schwarzenegger and Angelides (38% each) and Schwarzenegger and Westly (36% each). The governor’s comparative advantage over Angelides and Westly – namely, his name ID – is also his weakness: Most voters know him, but they are as likely to have an unfavorable view of him (47%) as a favorable one (45%). Angelides and Westly have the reverse problem: They -v- Press Release have far lower unfavorable ratings than Schwarzenegger (26% Angelides, 19% Westly) but they are also unknown to much of the electorate (45% Angelides, 50% Westly). “Independent voters – who know little about these Democratic candidates today but who will cast the swing votes in November – are getting their first exposure to them through more frequent and more negative paid advertising in the run up to the primary,” says Baldassare. Schwarzenegger’s Budget Popular, His Approach Not The state budget is already a big issue in the gubernatorial race. How do residents feel about the current state of fiscal affairs? A majority of Californians (57%) say they are satisfied with the governor’s revised budget plan, which he released on May 12. This plan has much higher support than his last year’s budget proposal (57% today compared to 44% in May 2005). Strong majorities back the governor’s plans for using some unexpected new state revenues to increase spending on K-12 education (77%), reduce state debt and reserve cash (76%), and fund levee repairs (67%). But there’s a twist. Although Californians support the governor’s proposal, only 19 percent prefer his approach to making tough choices about the budget, while 35 percent prefer the approach of Democrats in the state legislature, and 20 percent prefer the approach of legislative Republicans. A majority of Californians (52%) – and nearly half of likely voters (47%) – still disapprove of Schwarzenegger’s handling of the state budget and taxes. “Californians appear to be wary of the feast or famine budget situation they’ve seen in recent years,” says Baldassare. In fact, a majority (58%) believe the state’s fiscal situation remains a big problem. And, although one in four residents (26%) say it has improved in the past two years, two in three say it has stayed the same (34%) or gotten worse (32%). Even though many Californians have serious concerns about the state fisc, many would still like to see increased spending in some major budget categories – K-12 education (68%), health and human services (60%), and public colleges and universities (57%). The exception? State residents would prefer to spend less money (32%) rather than more (24%) on prisons. Overall, 55 percent of Californians favor a state government with higher taxes and more services. But are they willing to support reforms that would make it easier to raise taxes and pass budgets? No. More state residents say it would be a bad idea to lower either the supermajority vote requirement for local special taxes (52% bad idea, 38% good idea) or the two-thirds vote requirement for state budgets (46% bad idea, 42% good idea). Support Builds for Infrastructure Measures Seven in 10 Californians (70%) support the governor’s plan to invest $222 billion over the next 10 years on infrastructure projects. A majority (58%) want to increase spending on infrastructure, and believe education facilities (50%) should be the top priority when it comes to allocating additional state funding, followed by surface transportation projects (24%), and flood protection (15%). In November, Californians will go to the polls to vote on four infrastructure bond measures – totaling about $37 billion – that the legislature placed on the ballot with the governor’s support. But does support for increased infrastructure spending hold when the rubber hits the road? Currently, the $10 billion bond for school and university construction and renovation has the strongest support among likely voters (68%). More than six in 10 likely voters also say they would vote yes on a $20 billion bond measure for surface transportation projects (65%) and a $4 billion bond for flood protection projects (62%). Voters are divided, however, on a $3 billion bond for affordable housing (49% yes, 47% no). Interestingly, although Californians are generally enthusiastic about this bond package, they give the state legislature little credit for it: 51 percent of state residents – and 57 percent of likely voters – say they disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling the issues of transportation and infrastructure. June Ballot Measures Are Partisan Affairs Proposition 81 – the $600 million state bond measure that would fund the construction and renovation of public libraries in California – is currently supported by 51 percent of likely voters, with 41 percent opposed. Democrats support the measure by a wide margin (65% yes, 26% no), while Republicans are opposed (38% yes, 53% no) and - vi - Press Release independents are torn (45% yes, 47% no). Three in four voters (75%) say expanding access to public libraries is at least somewhat important. Proposition 82 – which would fund voluntary preschool education for all four-year-olds in California through a tax on high-income state residents – is currently supported by 50 percent of likely voters, with 43 percent opposed. Support for this measure has changed little since April (51% yes, 40% no). Even though most likely voters (82%) agree that attending preschool is at least somewhat important to later school success, Democrats (63%) are more likely than Republicans (36%) to back the measure. Half of likely voters (52%) like the idea of tying a specific tax to a specific service, while 34 percent think earmarking is a bad idea. More Key Findings • Independent Voters Just Say No to Partisan Ballots (page 1) Although primary rules allow independent voters to select a party ballot instead of a nonpartisan one, few independents today say they plan to select a Democratic (21%) or Republican (8%) ballot. • Immigration Remains Top Concern (page 4) Likely voters rank immigration (24%) as the top issue they want candidates for governor to discuss, followed by education and schools (23%). Republicans (32%) and independents (29%) are more likely than Democrats (15%) to name immigration as their top issue. • Redistricting Reform Still Hot… (page 16) Despite the defeat of Proposition 77 on last year’s ballot, many voters (64%) still say the redistricting process needs change. Six in 10 (62%) would prefer to have an independent commission of citizens, rather than the governor and legislature, in charge of the redistricting process. • … Term Limits Reform Not (page 17) Two in three likely voters (67%) say term limits are a good thing, and an equal number oppose changing the system to let state legislators serve up to 14 years in either the senate or assembly. • Lukewarm Support for Public Funding of Campaigns (page 18) A strong majority of likely voters (64%) say campaign contributions have a bad effect on policymaking in Sacramento. Half (51%) would pay for a system of public funding for state and legislative campaigns. About the Survey This survey on the California state budget – made possible with funding from The James Irvine Foundation – is a special edition of the PPIC Statewide Survey. This is the seventh survey in a series intended to raise public awareness, inform decisionmakers, and stimulate public discussions about issues related to the California state budget and underlying fiscal system. Findings of this survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,000 California adult residents interviewed between May 14 and May 21, 2006. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The sampling error for the total sample is +/- 2%. The sampling error for subgroups is larger: For the 986 likely voters it is +/- 3% and for the 435 Democratic primary likely voters it is +/- 5%. For more information on methodology, see page 19. Mark Baldassare is research director at PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has directed since 1998. PPIC is a private, nonprofit organization dedicated to improving public policy through objective, nonpartisan research on the economic, social, and political issues that affect Californians. The institute was established in 1994 with an endowment from William R. Hewlett. PPIC does not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. This report will appear on PPIC’s website (www.ppic.org) on May 25. ### - vii - Democratic Gubernatorial Primary 33 35 32 Democratic Primary Likely Voters Phil Angelides Steve Westly Other/Don't know Proposition 81—Library Bond 8 Likely Voters Likely Voters' Opinions of Gubernatorial Candidates 100 Favorable opinion 80 Unfavorable opinion 60 40 29 26 20 45 47 31 19 0 Angelides Schw arzenegger Westly Proposition 82—Preschool Initiative 7 51 41 43 50 Likely Voters Yes No Don't know Governor's Budget Plan 100 Percent saying they are "satisfied" with his budget plan 80 71 60 57 40 43 55 20 0 All Adults Dem Rep Ind Likely Voters Yes No Don't know Infrastructure Bonds 100 Percent saying they would vote "yes" 80 68 65 62 60 49 40 20 0 $10 B1illion $20 2Billion $4 B3illion $3 B4illion Schools Transportation Flood A f f ordable Protection Housing All Adults Likely Voters California 2006 Elections Democratic Primary for Governor With the June 6 Democratic gubernatorial primary campaign in its final days, State Treasurer Phil Angelides and State Controller Steve Westly are in a close contest (35% to 32%); however, one in three voters are still undecided or saying they would choose someone else to run against Arnold Schwarzenegger in November. In the past month, Angelides has experienced the largest gains of the entire campaign season. In contrast, Westly has shown modest increases in support over time. Still, with limited time remaining before the primary, a large percent of voters have yet to choose a favorite candidate in the Democratic primary for governor. “If the Democratic primary for governor were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for...?” Democratic Primary Likely Voters Phil Angelides, State Treasurer Steve Westly, State Controller Other/don’t know March 06 22% 23 55 April 06 20% 26 54 May 06 35% 32 33 Women outnumber men in the Democratic electorate, thus, the large number of undecided women will play an important role in determining the winner on June 6. Currently, men favor Angelides by a wide margin, and women favor Westly by a narrower margin. Phil Angelides Steve Westly Other/don't know Democratic Primary Likely Voters 35% 32 33 Gender Men Women 43% 28% 29 35 28 37 Apparently, the gubernatorial and other candidates in the Democratic primaries are not attracting much interest among the “decline to state” or independent voters. Although the primary rules allow for independents to select a party ballot instead of a nonpartisan ballot, just two in 10 independents at this time say they will select a Democratic ballot. Interest in voting in the Democratic primary has not changed much as the campaign season has progressed. Since the ballot choices of independent voters will be an important factor in the fall election—neither Democrats nor Republicans have 50 percent of registered voters and independents now make up 18 percent of the California electorate—their party participation and candidate leanings in the June primary will be closely watched. “Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or on the nonpartisan ballot?” Independent Likely Voters Only Democratic primary Republican primary Nonpartisan ballot Don't know March 06 19% 12 57 12 April 06 18% 14 56 12 May 06 21% 8 54 17 -1- California 2006 Elections Potential November Match-ups Governor Schwarzenegger appears to be headed for a close election in the 2006 governor’s race no matter who he faces in November. The race is a toss-up in a hypothetical contest between Schwarzenegger and Angelides (38% to 38%) or Schwarzenegger and Westly (36% to 36%). At this stage, about one in four voters would opt for other candidates or are undecided in these two gubernatorial match-ups. “If these were the candidates in the November 2006 governor's election would you vote for…?” Arnold Schwarzenegger Phil Angelides Other/don't know Likely Voters 38% 38 24 Arnold Schwarzenegger Steve Westly Other/don't know Likely Voters 36% 36 28 The pattern of partisan support for Schwarzenegger is remarkably similar whether Angelides or Westly is the Democratic candidate for governor. About two in three Democrats would support either Angelides or Westly against Schwarzenegger. Meanwhile, about two in three Republicans would favor Schwarzenegger, whether the Democratic candidate is Westly or Angelides. Independents are divided in match-ups between Schwarzenegger and Angelides or Westly, but large percentages of independents are undecided or name other candidates. The choices made by these undecided independents are certain to play a decisive role in determining the outcome of the November election. In terms of regional differences, both Angelides and Westly have their strongest showing against Schwarzenegger in the Democratic-leaning San Francisco Bay Area, while Schwarzenegger leads both Democratic challengers in the Central Valley and the Other Southern California region. About one in four Latinos say they would vote for Schwarzenegger over Angelides or Westly, while more express support for either Angelides or Westly. Whites favor Schwarzenegger over Angelides (45% to 33%) and Westly (42% to 34%). Men favor Schwarzenegger over Angelides (45% to 36%) and Westly (42% to 33%), while women favor Angelides (41% to 31%) and Westly (40% to 29%) over Schwarzenegger. “If these were the candidates in the November 2006 governor's election would you vote for…?” Likely Voters Only Arnold Schwarzenegger Phil Angelides Other/don’t know Arnold Schwarzenegger Steve Westly Other/don’t know Dem 14% 65 21 14 62 24 Party Rep 67% 10 23 65 9 26 Ind 33% 35 32 27 32 41 Region Central Valley 45% 31 24 44 31 25 SF Bay Area 25% 51 24 24 46 30 Los Angeles 37% 42 21 38 36 26 Other Southern California 44% 30 26 39 31 30 Latinos 26% 47 27 24 36 40 -2- California 2006 Elections Candidate Popularity Ratings Many Democratic primary likely voters are not all that familiar with the two major candidates in the gubernatorial primary—even in the closing days of this campaign. About four in 10 say they don’t know enough about Angelides or Westly to have opinions about either one. Still, perceptions of both candidates are mostly, and about equally, favorable. Only about one in 10 Democratic primary likely voters have unfavorable opinions of Angelides or Westly—over four in 10 have favorable opinions of them. “Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of _____________, or don’t you know enough about him to have an opinion?” Democratic Primary Likely Voters Only Phil Angelides Steve Westly Favorable 48% 44 Favorability Unfavorable 12% 10 Don’t Know 40% 46 Currently, the two Democratic primary candidates are far less well known than Governor Schwarzenegger. In the broader electorate of all likely voters, about half have no opinion of Angelides and Westly, compared to less than one in 10 for Schwarzenegger. Three in 10 voters have favorable opinions toward both Angelides and Westly. Californians’ opinions are divided over Schwarzenegger— 45 percent are favorable toward him, while 47 percent are unfavorable. Among likely voters, more express favorable opinions of Schwarzenegger than either Democratic hopeful, but at the same time, more express unfavorable opinions of Schwarzenegger than either Democrat. Schwarzenegger is highly popular among Republicans and highly unpopular among Democrats. Among independents, 37 percent have a favorable opinion and 52 percent have an unfavorable opinion. Westly and Angelides have similar popularity levels among Democrats. Westly is more popular than Angelides among independents and Republicans. Schwarzenegger is most popular in the Central Valley and the Other Southern California region, and least popular in the San Francisco Bay Area, where Westly and Angelides have their highest popularity ratings. Likely Voters Only Phil Angelides Arnold Schwarzenegger Steve Westly Favorable Unfavorable Don't know Favorable Unfavorable Don't know Favorable Unfavorable Don't know All Likely Voters 29% 26 45 45 47 8 31 19 50 Dem 48% 12 40 21 69 10 45 10 45 Party Rep 10% 39 51 75 17 8 18 26 56 Ind 23% 26 51 37 52 11 28 18 54 Central Valley 20% 28 52 52 37 11 28 20 52 Region SF Bay Area 39% 21 40 34 60 6 39 17 44 Los Angeles 30% 26 44 44 47 9 31 19 50 Other Southern California 24% 31 45 51 42 7 27 20 53 - 3 - May 2006 California 2006 Elections Voters’ Interests and Awareness Likely voters place immigration (24%) and education (23%) at the top of the list of issues they would most like the candidates for governor to talk about this year. By comparison, just 12 percent name the state budget and taxes, and 10 percent mention jobs and the economy. Only 4 percent name infrastructure as the single most important issue, and another 2 percent mention transportation and traffic congestion. Other topics mentioned at less than 4 percent each include crime, the environment, gasoline prices, gay rights, government reform, health care, housing, and terrorism. Democratic voters—and those most likely to vote in the Democratic primary—tend to focus most on education. Republicans and independents focus most on the issue of immigration. “Californians will go to the polls to elect a governor in 2006. Which one issue would you like to hear the candidates talk about this year?” Likely Voters Only Immigration, illegal immigration Education, schools State budget, deficit, taxes Economy, jobs Infrastructure All Likely Voters 24% 23 12 10 4 Dem 15% 30 9 13 5 Party Rep 32% 18 14 6 3 Ind 29% 20 14 9 2 Democratic Primary Likely Voters 15% 29 9 12 5 The gubernatorial election appears to be generating more interest now than it did earlier this spring. Today, 68 percent of all likely voters say they are very or fairly closely following the news about it. In March (52%) and April (60%), fewer likely voters were very or fairly closely following the election news. Today, 73 percent of those who are Democratic primary likely voters are very or fairly closely following news about the candidates for governor. This past month, the Democratic gubernatorial primary has been in an active period of paid television commercials, which is evident in the three in four voters who have noticed advertisements from both Angelides and Westly. Likely voters are about equally likely to say they recall seeing ads by either Angelides or Westly, and this pattern is also evident among the Democratic primary likely voters. Clearly, these ads reach a broader audience than simply the Democratic primary likely voter. As Californians wait to learn who Schwarzenegger will face in November, solid majorities of Republican and independent voters have also seen the Angelides and Westly advertisements. “In the past month, have you seen any television advertisements by the candidates for governor? Whose ads have you seen the most—Phil Angelides’ or Steve Westly’s?” Likely Voters Only Yes, Angelides’ ads Yes, Westly’s ads Yes, both equally (volunteered) No/don't know All Likely Voters 27% 28 21 24 Dem 25% 29 25 21 Party Rep 28% 26 20 26 Ind 30% 30 20 20 Democratic Primary Likely Voters 26% 28 25 21 -4- California 2006 Elections Proposition 81: Public Library Bond Proposition 81 is a $600 million state bond measure that would fund the construction and renovation of public libraries in California. When likely voters are read the text of this measure that will require a simple majority vote to pass on the June ballot, 51 percent say they would vote yes and 41 percent would vote no. In our March survey, the level of support for Proposition 81 was similar (50% yes, 41% no). Today, Democrats (65%) are much more likely than Republicans (38%) and independents (45%) to say they would vote yes on this bond. By region, this bond measure draws the most support in the San Francisco Bay Area (57%) and Los Angeles (53%), while support in the Central Valley (45%) and the Other Southern California region (46%) is lower. Support for Proposition 81 is similar across income groups and is higher among Latinos than whites. Moreover, support rises sharply with level of education. “Proposition 81 is called the California Reading and Literacy Improvement and Public Library Construction and Renovation Bond Act of 2006…. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 81?”* Likely Voters Only Yes No Don’t know All Likely Voters 51% 41 8 Party Dem 65% 26 9 Rep 38% 53 9 Ind 45% 47 8 Central Valley 45% 45 10 Region SF Bay Area 57% 34 9 Los Angeles 53% 39 8 Other Southern California 46% 44 10 How important is the issue of expanding access to public libraries? Three in four voters say this issue is at least somewhat important, though just under half (44%) say it is very important to them. Of those planning to vote yes on Proposition 81, almost seven in 10 say this issue is very important, while about half of those who would vote no say it is either not too important (31%) or not at all important (20%). Democrats (57%) are more likely than Republicans (33%) or independents (39%) to say public library access is very important. Women (51%) are more likely than men (38%) to say it is very important. Regionally, San Francisco Bay Area residents are more likely than others to say this issue is very important. “How important to you is the issue of expanding access to public libraries?” Likely Voters Only Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important Don’t know Likely Voters 44% 31 14 9 2 Prop. 81 – Libraries Yes No 68% 15% 29 33 3 31 0 20 01 * For complete question wording, see question 18 in the survey questionnaire, page 23. -5- May 2006 California 2006 Elections Proposition 82: Public Preschool Education Tax Initiative Proposition 82 is a citizens’ initiative on the statewide ballot that would raise the income tax on highincome residents to fund voluntary, free preschool education for all four-year-olds in California. After hearing the text that will appear on the June ballot, 50 percent of likely voters say they would vote yes on Proposition 82, while 43 percent would vote no. Support for this initiative, which requires a simple majority to pass, was also around 50 percent in March (52% yes, 41% no) and April (51% yes, 40% no). Today’s findings point to a partisan division on Proposition 82, with Democrats (63%) strongly in favor and Republicans equally opposed (60%). Independents are more divided (51% yes, 42% no). While a solid majority of San Francisco Bay Area residents back this initiative, support falls below 50 percent in other major regions. Support is higher among Latinos than whites (62% to 44%), but is similar among those with (49% yes) and without (50% yes) children. Support declines sharply with age. “Proposition 82 is called the Public Preschool Education Tax Increase on Incomes Over $400,000 for Individuals; $800,000 for Couples Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute.... If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 82?”* Likely Voters Only Yes No Don’t know All Likely Voters 50% 43 7 Party Dem 63% 28 9 Rep 36% 60 4 Ind 51% 42 7 Central Valley 40% 50 10 Region SF Bay Area 61% 32 7 Los Angeles 47% 46 7 Other Southern California 49% 43 8 How do Californians react to the fiscal practice of having a specific tax tied to a specific service, known as earmarking, which is what would occur if Proposition 82 passes? About half of likely voters (52%) say it is a good idea, while 34 percent think it is a bad idea. More Democrats (56%) and independents (57%) than Republicans (44%) say earmarking is a good idea. Among Proposition 82 supporters, 69 percent are in favor of this practice. Among those opposed to the measure, a majority (53%) think it is a bad idea. “Generally speaking do you think it is a good idea or a bad idea to have a specific tax directly tied to a specific service?” Likely Voters Only Good idea Bad idea Don't know All Likely Voters 52% 34 14 Prop. 82– Pre School Yes No 69% 18 13 36% 53 11 Regardless of their position on Proposition 82, eight in 10 likely voters think that attending preschool is very (57%) or somewhat important (25%) to a student’s success in kindergarten through grade 12. This finding was similar in PPIC’s March survey. Among those who support Proposition 82, nearly eight in 10 believe that attending preschool is very important to later school success. Among those opposed to Proposition 82, only one in three say that attending preschool is very important to later school success. * For complete question wording, see question 20 in the survey questionnaire, page 23. -6- State Fiscal Issues Governor’s Budget Proposal On May 12, Governor Schwarzenegger released a revised budget plan for the 2006-2007 fiscal year that includes a surge in new state revenues since January from personal income tax collections. Similar to the January budget, the May budget revision includes increased state spending for K-12 public schools, health and human services, higher education, corrections and prisons, and transportation—without any new taxes. The majority of Californians (57%) say they are satisfied with the governor’s budget plan, while three in 10 are not satisfied. Californians were somewhat more favorably disposed toward the 2006-2007 budget released in January (60% satisfied, 28% dissatisfied), but they were much less favorably disposed toward the governor’s revised budget last May (44% satisfied, 47% dissatisfied). There are partisan differences in satisfaction with the governor’s budget plans: Seven in 10 Republicans, compared to four in 10 Democrats and 55 percent of independents, are satisfied with the governor’s budget plan. Nonetheless, Democrats are more satisfied with the governor’s budget plan today than they were last May (26% satisfied, 64% dissatisfied). Overall, majorities across regional, age, education, and income groups are satisfied with the governor’s budget plan. “In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the governor's budget plan?” Satisfied Dissatisfied Haven't heard anything about the budget (volunteered) Don't know All Adults 57% 30 6 7 Dem 43% 40 8 9 Party Rep 71% 17 7 5 Ind 55% 30 9 6 Likely Voters 53% 32 7 8 We asked about three spending areas in which the governor has proposed to use the additional state revenues. Californians support the governor’s plans to increase K-12 public education funding (77%), reduce the amount of state debt and place money in reserve (76%), and fund levee repairs (67%). There is broad support across the state’s regions and demographic groups for using the additional money for these purposes. While there is little difference across party lines on funding levee repairs, Democrats and independents are more supportive of increased K-12 spending, and Republicans are far more supportive of reducing state debt and increasing reserves. “Do you favor or oppose using some of this additional money to …” Increase K-12 public education funding? Reduce the amount of state debt and place money in reserve? Fund levee repairs? Favor Oppose Don't know Favor Oppose Don't know Favor Oppose Don't know All Adults 77% 20 3 76 17 7 67 24 9 Dem 84% 14 2 74 20 6 72 21 7 Party Rep 62% 36 2 90 8 2 67 28 5 Ind 77% 21 2 76 19 5 71 24 5 Likely Voters 71% 27 2 84 12 4 70 24 6 -7- State Fiscal Issues Fiscal Perceptions Many fiscal experts, including the Legislative Analyst’s Office, maintain a cautious outlook with regard to the state’s budget situation because of an expected shortfall of revenue compared to expenditures in future years. Indeed, many Californians are expressing concern about the state’s budget situation, even though the state currently has additional revenues rather than the sizable deficits it experienced a few years ago. After Governor Schwarzenegger released his fiscal 2006-2007 revised budget on May 12, nearly six in 10 adults and 64 percent of likely voters considered the balance between spending and revenues a big problem. In January of this year, a similar 61 percent said the state’s budget situation was a big problem. In May 2005, a higher proportion of adults—71 percent—considered the budget situation a big problem. In January 2004 and January 2005, when the state actually faced a multibillion dollar gap between spending and revenues, seven in 10 Californians said the state’s budget situation was a big problem for California. Today, a majority of the residents in every region of the state consider the budget gap between spending and revenues to be a major problem. Independents (65%) are about as likely Democrats (61%) and Republicans (63%) to rate this issue as a big problem. Concern about the state’s fiscal situation increases with age, education, and income. “Do you think the state budget situation in California—that is, the balance between government spending and revenues—is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today?” Big problem Somewhat of a problem Not a problem Don't know All Adults 58% 31 5 6 Central Valley 60% 29 3 8 Region SF Bay Area 61% 28 5 6 Los Angeles 53% 35 7 5 Other Southern California 59% 32 4 5 Likely Voters 64% 30 2 4 Two in three Californians say there has been no improvement in the state’s budget situation over the past two years. While one in four thinks the state budget situation has improved, one in three believes it has remained the same, and one in three believes it has deteriorated. Likely voters are somewhat more inclined to say that improvements have occurred in the past two years, although their overall views are not that different from all adults. While four in 10 Republicans believe the budget situation has improved, far fewer Democrats and independents hold with this opinion. Those who approve of Schwarzenegger’s job performance mostly see improvements in the past two years (45%), while those who disapprove mostly see the budget getting worse (46%). Perceptions of improvements in the state budget are similar across major regions of the state, and tend to increase with age, education, and income. “In the past two years, do you think the state budget situation has improved, gotten worse, or stayed the same?” Improved Gotten worse Stayed the same Don't know All Adults 26% 32 34 8 Dem 21% 38 34 7 Party Rep 41% 20 31 8 Ind 27% 32 35 6 Likely Voters 32% 29 34 5 -8- State Fiscal Issues Spending Priorities Although many Californians express concern about the balance between government revenues and spending in the state budget, many would still like to see spending increases in three of the four major categories of the state budget—K-12 public education, health and human services, and public colleges and universities. Moreover, there is a strong appetite for increasing state spending on roads and infrastructure in the wake of discussions by the governor and legislature this year. Among the major items in the state budget, Californians are most interested in increasing spending on K-12 public education (68% of all adults, 61% of likely voters). About half of Republicans want more money spent on K-12 public schools compared to large majorities of Democrats (75%) and independents (69%). While majorities also want more spending on health and human services (60% of adults, 50% of likely voters) and higher education (57% of adults, 50% of likely voters), Democrats and independents are much more supportive than Republicans of increased spending in these areas. By contrast, just one in four adults would like to see more spending on corrections such as prisons—a preference that is similarly low across political groups. About six in 10 Californians want more state spending on roads and infrastructure (58% of adults, 63% of likely voters). There is solid majority support for spending in this area across political groups and regions (60% Central Valley, 60% Other Southern California, 59% San Francisco Bay Area, 55% Los Angeles). “For each area, please tell me if you think that the state government should spend more money than it does now, the same amount as now, or less money than now …” How about the K-12 public education system? How about health and human services? How about roads and other infrastructure projects? How about public colleges and universities? How about the state's corrections system, including prisons? More money Same amount of money Less money Don't know More money Same amount of money Less money Don't know More money Same amount of money Less money Don't know More money Same amount of money Less money Don't know More money Same amount of money Less money Don't know All Adults 68% 22 8 2 60 25 12 3 58 32 7 3 57 31 8 4 24 37 32 7 Dem 75% 18 4 3 69 22 7 2 58 31 7 4 65 27 7 1 25 35 35 5 Party Rep 51% 33 14 2 36 36 24 4 57 34 6 3 35 45 16 4 25 41 30 4 Ind 69% 20 8 3 61 24 12 3 63 28 6 3 56 37 4 3 19 43 33 5 Likely Voters 61% 28 9 2 50 31 16 3 63 29 5 3 50 38 9 3 23 40 33 4 - 9 - May 2006 State Fiscal Issues Fiscal Policy Preferences While Californians are satisfied with the governor’s budget plan, they prefer the approach of the Democrats in the legislature (35%) to that of the Republicans in the legislature (20%) or the governor (19%) when it comes to the tough choices involved in the state budget. Two years ago, 30 percent of adults supported the governor’s approach, while 31 percent favored the approach of the Democrats in the legislature. Sharp partisan differences exist today: two in three Democrats prefer the Democrats in the legislature, while four in 10 Republicans prefer the Republicans in the legislature and one in three prefer the governor’s approach. Independents are more divided: Three in 10 prefer the Democrats in the legislature, one in four favors the governor, and 16 percent prefer the GOP legislators. Preferences for the approach of the Democrats in the legislature is higher in the San Francisco Bay Area (44%) and Los Angeles (41%) than in other regions and is somewhat higher among Latinos (38%) than whites (31%) and among women (38%) than men (32%). “When it comes to the tough choices involved in the state budget, both in deciding how much Californians should pay in taxes and how to fund state programs, whose approach do you most prefer?” Democrats' in the legislature Republicans' in the legislature Governor Schwarzenegger's Other None (volunteered) Don’t know All Adults 35% 20 19 1 5 20 Dem 64% 5 11 1 4 15 Party Rep 6% 42 32 0 2 18 Ind 28% 16 23 1 7 25 Likely Voters 34% 21 22 1 5 17 Over half of Californians (55%) favor a state government with higher taxes and more services. Likely voters are more divided on this issue, with 49 percent favoring higher taxes and more services and 44 percent supporting lower taxes and fewer services. As for partisan differences, 68 percent of Democrats and 53 percent of independents prefer higher taxes and more services, while 66 percent of Republicans favor lower taxes and fewer services. Across regions, residents of the San Francisco Bay Area (59%) are the most likely to favor higher taxes and more services. Latinos (68%) are much more likely than whites (46%) to favor higher taxes and more services. Preference for lower taxes and fewer services increases with age, education, and income. “Which of the following statements do you agree with more—I’d rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, or I’d rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services?” Higher taxes and more services Lower taxes and fewer services Don’t know All Adults 55% 38 7 Dem 68% 26 6 Party Rep 28% 66 6 Ind 53% 41 6 Likely Voters 49% 44 7 - 10 - State Fiscal Issues Supermajority Vote While there are no fiscal reform measures under active consideration, proposals such as lowering the supermajority vote have often been discussed. In 2004, Proposition 56, which would have lowered the two-thirds threshold needed for passing a state budget, was rejected. Other ideas called for lowering the supermajority vote to pass local special taxes, but our previous surveys have found voters skeptical on this issue as well. Nearly four in 10 California residents and likely voters think that replacing the two-thirds vote requirement with a 55 percent majority vote for voters to pass local special taxes is a good idea, while over half think it is a bad idea. The percent of residents who think this local fiscal reform is a good idea has declined from 46 percent in June 2003 to 43 percent in January 2005 to 38 percent today. Democrats (43%) are more likely than Republicans (30%) and independents (37%) to say that replacing the local two-thirds vote for local taxes is a good idea, although support falls below a majority in all groups. Across California’s regions, residents of the Central Valley (33%) are the least likely to say this is a good idea. Latinos (42%) are more likely than whites (34%) to think this local fiscal reform is a good idea. The percent saying this is a good idea declines with age. “Spending and tax reforms have been proposed to address issues in the state budget. For each of the following, please indicate whether you think this is a good idea or a bad idea: How about replacing the two-thirds vote requirement with a 55 percent majority vote for voters to pass local special taxes?” Good idea Bad idea Don’t Know All Adults 38% 52 10 Dem 43% 48 9 Party Rep 30% 65 5 Ind 37% 57 6 Likely Voters 37% 57 6 Even though the governor and legislature have often failed to pass the state budget on time in recent years, fewer than half of Californians think it is a good idea to replace the two-thirds vote requirement with a 55 percent majority vote for the state legislature to pass a budget. The percent saying that this particular fiscal reform is a good idea has declined slightly over the past three years (46% in June 2003; 45% in January 2005; 42% today). Democrats (45%) are more likely than Republicans (35%) and independents (36%) to think this state fiscal reform is a good idea but, again, support falls below 50 percent in all these groups. Latinos (49%) are much more likely than whites (37%) to say that making it easier to pass the state budget is a good idea. There is a strong correlation between support for changing the local and state supermajority vote restrictions. Of those who think that changing the two-thirds vote requirement to a 55 percent majority for local special taxes is a good idea, seven in 10 also think that it is a good idea to replace the two-thirds vote with a 55 percent majority vote to pass a state budget. “How about replacing the two-thirds vote requirement with a 55 percent majority vote for the state legislature to pass a budget?” Good idea Bad idea Don’t Know All Adults 42% 46 12 Dem 45% 44 11 Party Rep 35% 57 8 Ind 36% 54 10 Likely Voters 40% 52 8 - 11 - May 2006 State Fiscal Issues State Comparisons When asked where California currently ranks in state and local government spending per capita and state and local tax burden per capita, most Californians believe that the state ranks average or higher on both issues. When comparing California to other states, nearly half of Californians say that government spending per capita is near the top (23%) or above average (23%), one in four says average (24%), and one in six says below average (12%) or near the bottom (5%). Across party lines, six in 10 Republicans think spending is above par, compared to half of independents and four in 10 Democrats. Regionally, residents of the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles are less likely than residents of the Central Valley and the Other Southern California region to say that spending is near the top or above average. Whites (51%) are more likely than Latinos (40%) to say that government per capita spending is higher than average. The belief that state and local government spending is higher than average increases slightly with income. According to the Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan tax research group, California in 2002 ranked 4th in state and local government spending per capita. “Where do you think California currently ranks in state and local government spending per capita? Compared to other states, is California’s spending per capita near the top, above average, average, below average, or near the bottom?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind Voters Near the top 23% 17% 33% 26% 23% Above average 23 23 27 23 25 Average 24 24 18 22 21 Below average 12 15 10 11 14 Near the bottom 57 2 5 5 Don't know 13 14 10 13 12 When it comes to rating the government tax burden, Californians are even more likely to think their state is a national leader. Nearly six in 10 residents think that California ranks near the top (29%) or above average (28%), one in five believes California’s tax burden is average (22%), and one in 10 believes that California ranks below average (6%) or near the bottom (4%). Across partisan lines, Republicans (72%) are much more likely than Democrats (55%) and independents (65%) to think California’s tax burden is higher than average. Latinos (42%) are much less likely than whites (65%) to say that the tax burden is near the top or above average. The belief that the tax burden is higher than average increases sharply with income. According to the Tax Foundation, California in 2005 ranked 11th in state and local tax burden per capita. “Where do you think California currently ranks in state and local tax burden per capita? Compared to other states, is California’s tax burden per capita near the top, above average, average, below average, or near the bottom?” All Adults Dem Party Rep Likely Ind Voters Near the top 29% 27% 40% 32% 33% Above average 28 28 32 33 31 Average 22 21 13 18 17 Below average 68 5 5 6 Near the bottom 44 2 3 2 Don't know 11 12 8 9 11 - 12 - State Policies Infrastructure Priorities and Funding Californians will go the polls this November to vote on four infrastructure bond measures totaling about $37 billion, placed on the ballot by the legislature. This is the largest package of bonds in the state’s history and includes funds for education facilities, surface transportation, flood protection, and affordable housing. With 58 percent of Californians already in support of the state spending more money on roads and other infrastructure projects, how would they vote on the four bond measures that will each require a simple majority vote to pass in November? A $10 billion bond for school and university construction and renovation has the strongest support (74% adults, 68% likely voters). Democrats (80%) are much more likely to support this bond measure than independents (68%) and Republicans (59%), although majorities in all political groups support it. Support for this measure decreases with age, education, and income. When asked about a $20 billion bond for surface transportation projects, more than six in 10 Californians (62%) and likely voters (65%) would vote yes on this bond. Support is similar across political parties. Strong majorities across regions would vote yes. Six in 10 adults and likely voters (62% each) also support a $4 billion bond for flood protection projects. Majorities across political parties support this measure. Regionally, residents in the Central Valley (71%) and San Francisco Bay Area (70%) are more likely to vote yes on this bond than residents in Los Angeles (60%) and the Other Southern California region (55%). Latinos (71%) are much more likely than whites (58%) to support the flood protection bond. Another bond on the November ballot includes $3 billion for new affordable housing projects. Six in 10 adults (60%) support this bond, while likely voters are divided (49% yes, 47% no). A majority of Democrats (66%) and independents (58%) would vote yes, but a majority of Republicans (62%) oppose this measure. Support also decreases with age, education, and income. “The legislature recently passed a package of state bonds for the November ballot totaling about $37 billion for infrastructure projects such as education facilities, surface transportation, flood protection, and affordable housing to be paid through the state’s general funds with no new taxes. For each one, please tell me if you would vote yes or no if the election were held today. How about a bond of about…” $10 billion for school and university construction and renovation? $20 billion for surface transportation projects? $4 billion for flood protection projects? $3 billion for new affordable housing? Yes No Don't know Yes No Don't know Yes No Don't know Yes No Don't know All Adults 74% 22 4 62 32 6 62 34 4 60 37 3 Dem 80% 16 4 63 30 7 66 29 5 66 29 5 Party Rep 59% 37 4 61 35 4 54 42 4 34 62 4 Ind 68% 28 4 62 33 5 59 37 4 58 39 3 Likely Voters 68% 28 4 65 30 5 62 35 3 49 47 4 - 13 - State Policies Governor’s Approval Ratings Governor Schwarzenegger’s job approval ratings continue to be low, marking a year of approval ratings below 50 percent. For adults today, 36 percent approve and 52 percent disapprove of his performance in office. Likely voters are more positive (42% approve, 48% disapprove). His approval rating is similar to last year (40% May 2005), and much lower than two years ago (64% May 2004). A strong majority of Republicans (65%) approve of the governor’s job performance, while most Democrats disapprove (69%); independents remain divided (41% approve, 49% disapprove). The governor’s approval ratings among political groups are similar when we compare those today to those of last May (Democrats 22%, Republicans 72%, independents 42%). Across regions today, approval ratings are higher in the Central Valley (43%) and the Other Southern California region (39%) than in Los Angeles (32%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (30%). Whites (48%) are more than twice as likely as Latinos (19%) to approve of the governor’s job performance, and men are more favorable towards the governor than are women (40% to 32%). Governor Schwarzenegger’s job approval ratings also increase with age, education, and income. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 36% 52 12 Party Dem 21% 69 10 Rep 65% 22 13 Region Ind 41% 49 10 Central Valley 43% 47 10 SF Bay Area 30% 56 14 Los Angeles 32% 55 13 Other Southern California 39% 46 15 Likely Voters 42% 48 10 With the release of his revised budget proposal, which includes greater than anticipated revenues for additional spending, Schwarzenegger still receives similar ratings on his handling of the budget and taxes as on his job overall (34% approve, 52% disapprove). Since January, when the governor’s original budget plan was released, his ratings have remained unchanged. Mirroring his overall ratings, Republicans (63%) continue to be more supportive of the governor’s fiscal actions than Democrats (19%) and independents (42%). Approval ratings remain low across regions. While 17 percent of Latinos approve of the governor’s handling of fiscal issues, almost half of whites approve (46%). Men are more likely than women (39% to 29%) to approve of the governor on this issue, and approval increases with age, education, and income. “Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Schwarzenegger is handling the issue of the state budget and taxes?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 34% 52 14 Party Dem 19% 69 12 Rep 63% 25 12 Region Ind 42% 47 11 Central Valley 35% 47 18 SF Bay Area 31% 55 14 Los Angeles 32% 56 12 Other Southern California 40% 47 13 Likely Voters 43% 47 10 - 14 - State Policies Legislature’s Approval Ratings Despite their bipartisan success earlier this month—passing the largest package of infrastructure bond measures in state history—the legislature still receives low approval ratings. Twenty-six percent of all adults approve of the legislature’s handling of its job, while 54 percent disapprove. These low ratings are similar to one year ago (26% approve, 58% disapprove) and are relatively unchanged since the beginning of this year (29% approve, 57% disapprove). Among likely voters today, 23 percent approve while 61 percent disapprove. Nearly half or more of residents across all political groups, regions of the state, and demographic groups disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its responsibilities. Republicans (63%) and independents (59%) are more negative in their ratings than Democrats (54%), although majorities across parties disapprove. “Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 26% 54 20 Party Dem 26% 54 20 Rep 23% 63 14 Region Ind 24% 59 17 Central Valley 23% 57 20 SF Bay Area 28% 52 20 Los Angeles 27% 53 20 Other Southern California 27% 56 17 Likely Voters 23% 61 16 When asked about the legislature’s handling of transportation and other infrastructure projects, 30 percent approve and 51 percent disapprove. This marks an improvement from March when legislators failed to pass an infrastructure bond package (23% approve, 54% disapprove). Latinos (38%) are more approving than whites (25%) on the legislature’s handling of this issue. “Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling the issue of transportation and other infrastructure projects?” Approve Disapprove Don't know All Adults 30% 51 19 Party Dem 31% 51 18 Rep 24% 57 19 Region Ind 26% 57 17 Central Valley 31% 50 19 SF Bay Area 29% 52 19 Los Angeles 31% 49 20 Other Southern California 29% 52 19 Likely Voters 24% 57 19 Californians are more positive about their individual representatives than about the legislature as a whole. When asked to rate the job performance of the legislators representing their own assembly and senate districts, four in 10 adults (39%) and likely voters (41%) approve of their performance. These ratings are similar to October 2005 (38% approve) but much lower than a year ago (47% approve). Individual representatives’ approval ratings fall below a majority for all political groups, regions of the state, and demographic groups. These approval ratings increase with education and income but do not reach 50 percent in any group. Latinos and whites, and men and women, give similar approval ratings. - 15 - May 2006 State Policies Redistricting Reform In last November’s special election, voters defeated Proposition 77, a citizens’ initiative that would have taken the responsibility of redrawing California’s voting districts away from the governor and legislature and given it to a panel of three retired judges. Although Californians voted this measure down, they believed then and continue to believe now that the redistricting process needs change. Nearly two in three residents today say the redistricting process needs major (40%) or minor changes (23%), while only one in four (23%) says it is fine the way it is. Likely voters express similar views about redistricting. Last October, 69 percent of likely voters said the system needed major (44%) or minor changes (25%), and one year ago, 63 percent also agreed (37% major changes, 26% minor changes). Across parties, independents (46% major, 24% minor) and Republicans (39% major, 26% minor) are more likely than Democrats (38% major, 21% minor) to believe the system needs changes. Across regions, Los Angeles residents are the most likely to believe the system needs major changes (47%) as compared to residents of the San Francisco Bay Area (39%), the Central Valley (38%), or the Other Southern California region (37%). “As you may know, redistricting is the process in which the physical boundaries of voting districts are changed. Do you think the way the governor and legislature go about the redistricting process in California is in need of major changes, minor changes, or is it fine the way it is?” Major changes Minor changes Fine the way it is Don't know All Adults 40% 23 23 14 Dem 38% 21 28 13 Party Rep 39% 26 22 13 Ind 46% 24 18 12 Likely Voters 42% 22 24 12 Although voters did not support the three-member panel of retired judges to lead the redistricting process, six in 10 adults (60%) and likely voters (62%) do support having an independent commission of citizens take this responsibility. When asked a similar question in September 2004, residents were divided about establishing an independent state commission (39% favor, 40% oppose). Seven years ago, likely voters were also divided when asked how they would vote on a ballot initiative that would establish an independent commission (46% yes, 41% no). Today, the idea of an independent citizens’ commission receives majority support across parties. About six in 10 residents across regions and racial/ethnic groups favor an independent commission for redistricting. Favor increases with education and income. Of those who say the redistricting process is in need of major changes, seven in 10 favor (71%) the independent commission. “Would you favor or oppose a redistricting reform that requires an independent commission of citizens, instead of the state legislature and governor, to adopt a new redistricting plan after each census?” Favor Oppose Don't know All Adults 60% 25 15 Dem 56% 31 13 Party Rep 65% 22 13 Ind 61% 27 12 Likely Voters 62% 25 13 - 16 - State Policies Term Limits Reform Residents continue to believe in the state legislative term limits established by initiative in 1990. Sixty percent of adults and 67 percent of likely voters say it’s a good thing for California to limit the number of terms that members of the state senate and state assembly can hold their elected offices. Five out of six times this question has been asked, majorities of adults have said term limits are a good thing (65%, October 1998; 45% December 2001; 61%, September 2004; 57%, October 2005; 60% today). Today, although majorities across parties agree, Republicans (74%) are much more likely than independents (63%) or Democrats to (59%) say term limits are a good thing. Residents of the Other Southern California region (66%) and the Central Valley (62%) are more likely than residents of Los Angeles (56%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (54%) to believe that term limits are beneficial, and whites are much more likely than Latinos (67% to 48%) to say they are a good thing. As age, income, and education levels increase, residents are more likely to say term limits are a good thing for California. “The California Legislature has operated under term limits since 1990, meaning that members of the state senate and state assembly are limited in the number of terms they can hold their elected office. Do you think that term limits are a good thing or a bad thing for California, or do they make no difference?” Good thing Bad thing No difference Don't know All Adults 60% 15 21 4 Dem 59% 21 17 3 Party Rep 74% 10 15 1 Ind 63% 15 19 3 Likely Voters 67% 18 13 2 Demonstrating their strong belief in the current term limit system, which restricts a legislator to serving six years in the assembly and eight years in the senate, over two in three adults (68%) and likely voters (67%) oppose changing the system to allow members to serve up to 14 years of total legislative service in either branch. Last October, 62 percent of residents also expressed opposition to this proposed change. Only about three in 10 today (28%) and last October (29%) said they would favor this change. This idea receives strong majority opposition across political and demographic groups. About seven in 10 Republicans and independents, and 63 percent of Democrats oppose this idea. Seven in 10 residents in Los Angeles, the Other Southern California region, and the Central Valley, and six in 10 residents in the San Francisco Bay Area oppose the idea. Opposition decreases with education and income, but increases slightly with age. Of those who say term limits are a good thing, 81 percent oppose this change. “Under current term limits, a legislator is allowed to serve six years in the state assembly and eight years in the state senate. Would you favor or oppose a change in term limits that would allow members to serve up to 14 years of total legislative service in either branch?” Favor Oppose Don't know All Adults 28% 68 4 Dem 33% 63 4 Party Rep 25% 72 3 Ind 28% 68 4 Likely Voters 30% 67 3 - 17 - May 2006 State Policies Campaign Finance Reform Majorities of adults (55%) and likely voters (64%) think campaign contributions are currently having a bad effect on the public policy decisions made by elected officials in Sacramento. Only one in 10 believes that contributions are having a good effect, while one in four thinks they make no difference in the policy arena. These findings are similar to last October (53% bad effect) and September 1999 (56% bad effect). Residents across political parties and demographic groups have negative perceptions of the effects of campaign contributions, but independents (65%) and Democrats (63%) are more likely than Republicans (57%) to believe they have a bad effect. San Francisco Bay Area residents (61%) are more likely than residents of the Other Southern California region (56%), the Central Valley (52%), or Los Angeles (50%) to believe contributions have a bad effect, and negative attitudes increase with age, education, and income. While most whites (64%) say campaign contributions are having a bad effect on policy decisions, Latinos are divided on this issue (36% bad effect, 21% good effect, 30% no difference). “Do you think that campaign contributions are currently having a good effect or a bad effect on the public policy decisions made by state elected officials in Sacramento, or are campaign contributions making no difference?” Good effect Bad effect No difference Both (volunteered) Don't know All Adults 12% 55 23 1 9 Dem 11% 63 17 1 8 Party Rep 10% 57 21 2 10 Ind 7% 65 21 1 6 Likely Voters 8% 64 18 2 8 Half of adults (47%) and likely voters (51%) would favor a system of public funding for campaigns, even if it cost each taxpayer a few dollars a year to run. Public support for this proposal is at a relative high point today compared to PPIC survey results over the past six years (38% August 2000; 50% November 2002; 41% October 2003; 35% September 2004; 45% October 2005; 47% today). Democrats (55%) and independents (51%) are more likely to favor this proposal than Republicans (44%). San Francisco Bay Area (58%) residents are more likely to favor this idea, while Central Valley (50%), Los Angeles (49%), and Other Southern California (48%) residents are more likely to oppose it. A majority of whites (52%) supports public funding, while a majority of Latinos (54%) opposes it. Favor for this idea increases with age, education, and income. Of those who say campaign contributions are having a bad effect on policy, 57 percent favor public funding and 38 percent oppose it. “Would you favor or oppose having a system of public funding for state and legislative campaigns in California if it cost each taxpayer a few dollars a year to run?” Favor Oppose Don't know All Adults 47% 46 7 Dem 55% 40 5 Party Rep 44% 50 6 Ind 51% 46 3 Likely Voters 51% 44 5 - 18 - Survey Methodology The PPIC Statewide Survey is directed by Mark Baldassare, research director and survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California, with assistance in research and writing from Dean Bonner, project manager for this survey, and survey research associates Lunna Lopes, Jennifer Paluch, and Sonja Petek. The survey was conducted with funding from The James Irvine Foundation and benefited from discussions with Irvine Foundation staff and grantees, as well as from regional voter focus groups funded by the Foundation; however, the survey methods, questions, and content of the report were solely determined by Mark Baldassare. The findings of this survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,000 California adult residents interviewed between May 14 and May 21, 2006. Interviewing took place on weekday nights and weekend days, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers that ensured that both listed and unlisted telephone numbers were called. All telephone exchanges in California were eligible for calling. Telephone numbers in the survey sample were called up to six times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (age 18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing using the “last birthday method” to avoid biases in age and gender. Each interview took an average of 19 minutes to complete. Interviewing was conducted in English or Spanish. Accent on Languages translated the survey into Spanish with assistance from Renatta DeFever. Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas, Inc. conducted the telephone interviewing. We used recent U.S. Census and state figures to compare the demographic characteristics of the survey sample with characteristics of California’s adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the census and state figures. The survey data in this report were statistically weighted to account for any demographic differences. The sampling error for the total sample of 2,000 adults is +/- 2 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 2 percentage points of what they would be if all adults in California were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger: For the 1,484 registered voters, it is +/- 2.5 percent; for the 986 likely voters it is +/- 3 percent; for the 435 Democratic primary likely voters it is +/- 5 percent. Sampling error is only one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. Throughout the report, we present results for four geographic regions accounting for approximately 90 percent of the state population. “Central Valley” includes Butte, Colusa, El Dorado, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Counties. “SF Bay Area” includes Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma Counties. “Los Angeles” refers to Los Angeles County, and “Other Southern California” includes Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego Counties. Residents from all other areas, such as the north coast, central coast, and mountain counties, are included in the results reported for all adults, registered voters, and likely voters in this report. However, sample sizes for these less populated areas of California are not large enough to report separately in tables and text. We present specific results for Latinos because they account for about 30 percent of the state’s adult population and constitute one of the fastest growing voter groups. The sample sizes for African Americans and Asians are not large enough for separate statistical analysis. We do compare the opinions of registered Democrats, Republicans, and independents. The “independents” category includes those who are registered to vote as “decline to state.” We also include the responses of “likely voters”— those who are most likely to vote in the state’s elections. We compare PPIC Statewide Survey responses to earlier PPIC Statewide Surveys to analyze trends over time in California. - 19 - PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY: SPECIAL SURVEY ON THE CALIFORNIA STATE BUDGET MAY 14 – 21, 2006 2,000 CALIFORNIA ADULT RESIDENTS: ENGLISH AND SPANISH MARGIN OF ERROR +/-2% AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR TOTAL SAMPLE 1. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California? 36% approve 52 disapprove 12 don't know 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Governor Schwarzenegger is handling the issue of the state budget and taxes? 34% approve 52 disapprove 14 don't know 3. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling its job? 26% approve 54 disapprove 20 don't know 4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that the California Legislature is handling the issue of transportation and other infrastructure projects? 30% approve 51 disapprove 19 don't know 4a. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job that the state legislators representing your assembly and state senate districts are doing at this time? 39% approve 42 disapprove 3 mixed (volunteered) 16 don't know 5. Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction? 35% right direction 57 wrong direction 8 don't know 6. Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times? 37% good times 52 bad times 11 don't know 7. On another topic, some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you absolutely certain that you are registered to vote? 74% yes 25 no 1 don't know [ask q.7a] [skip to q.23] [skip to q.23] 7a. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, another party, or as an independent? 42% Democratic Party 34 Republican Party 19 independent 5 another party (specify) [skip to q.9] [skip to q.10] [ask q.8a] [skip to q.10] 8a. Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or Democratic Party? 29% Republican party 39 Democratic party 29 neither (volunteered) 3 don't know [Responses recorded for questions 8b through 22 are from likely voters only. All other responses are from all adults, except where noted.] 8b. California voters like yourself will be able to choose between voting in the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or selecting a nonpartisan ballot on June 6th. All three ballots include state proposition measures. Do you plan to vote in the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or on the nonpartisan ballot? 21% Democratic primary 8 Republican primary 54 nonpartisan ballot 17 don't know [ask q.9] [skip to q.10] [skip to q.10] [skip to q.10] 9. If the Democratic primary for governor were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for? [rotate names and then ask “or someone else”] 35% Phil Angelides, state treasurer 32 Steve Westly, state controller 33 other/don’t know - 21 - 10. How closely are you following news about candidates for the 2006 governor's election—very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely? 18% very closely 50 fairly closely 24 not too closely 6 not at all closely 2 don't know 11. In the past month, have you seen any television advertisements by the candidates for governor? 81% yes 19 no [ask q.11a] [skip to q.12] 11a.Whose ads have you seen the most—Phil Angelides' or Steve Westly's? 33% Phil Angelides' ads 35 Steve Westly's ads 27 both equally (volunteered) 5 other/don't know 12. In deciding who to vote for in the election for governor, how important to you are the candidates' performances in public debates—very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 33% very important 41 somewhat important 14 not too important 10 not at all important 2 don't know 12a.Californians will go to the polls to elect a governor in 2006. Which one issue would you like to hear the candidates talk about this year? [code, don’t read] 24% immigration, illegal immigration 23 education, schools 12 state budget, deficit, taxes 10 economy, jobs 4 infrastructure 3 gas prices 3 environment, pollution 2 health care, health costs, insurance 2 traffic, transportation 11 other (specify) 6 don’t know If these were the candidates in the November 2006 governor’s election… [rotate questions and pairs for questions 13 and 14 and then ask “or someone else”] 13. Would you vote for… 38% Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican 38 Phil Angelides, a Democrat 24 other/don't know 14. Would you vote for… 36% Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican 36 Steve Westly, a Democrat 28 other/don't know Next, please tell me if you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of each of these candidates for governor or don’t you know enough about him to have an opinion? [rotate questions 15 to 17] 15. How about Arnold Schwarzenegger? 45% favorable 47 unfavorable 8 don't know 16. How about Phil Angelides? 29% favorable 26 unfavorable 45 don't know 17. How about Steve Westly? 31% favorable 19 unfavorable 50 don't know Next, we have a few questions to ask you about the propositions on the upcoming June ballot. [rotate 2 blocks: (1) questions 18, 19 (2) questions 20, 21, 22] - 22 - 18. Proposition 81 is called the California Reading and Literacy Improvement and Public Library Construction and Renovation Bond Act of 2006. It provides for a bond issue in the amount not to exceed a total of $600 million for the construction and renovation of public library facilities in order to expand access to reading and literacy programs in California's public education system. It expands access to public library services for all residents of California. Fiscal impacts include a state cost of about $1.2 billion over 30 years to pay off both the principal and interest costs of the bond and one-time local costs statewide of about $320 million for local matching contributions. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 81? 51% yes 41 no 8 don't know 19. How important to you is the issue of expanding access to public libraries—very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 44% very important 31 somewhat important 14 not too important 9 not at all important 2 don't know 20. Proposition 82 is called the Preschool Education Tax on Incomes Over $400,000 for Individuals; $800,000 for Couples, Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute. It establishes the right to voluntary preschool for all four-year-olds and is funded by a 1.7% tax on individual income over $400,000; couples' income over $800,000. Fiscal impacts include increased annual revenues of $2.1 billion in 2007-2008, growing with the economy in future years. All revenues would be spent on the new preschool program. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 82? 50% yes 43 no 7 don't know [rotate questions 21 and 22] 21. Generally speaking do you think it is a good idea or a bad idea to have a specific tax directly tied to a specific service? 52% good idea 34 bad idea 14 don't know 22. How important is attending preschool to a student's success in kindergarten through grade 12—very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important? 57% very important 25 somewhat important 9 not too important 7 not at all important 2 don't know 23. On another issue, do you think the state budget situation in California—that is, the balance between government spending and revenues—is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today? 58% big problem 31 somewhat of a problem 5 not a problem 6 don't know 24. In the past two years, do you think the state budget situation has improved, gotten worse, or stayed the same? 26% improved 32 gotten worse 34 stayed the same 8 don't know Now, I am going to ask about specific areas where the state of California spends money. For each area, please tell me if you think that the state government should spend more money than it does now, the same amount as now, or less money than now. [rotate questions 25 to 29] 25. How about the state's corrections system, including prisons? 24% more money 37 same amount of money 32 less money 7 don't know 26. How about the K-12 public education system? 68% more money 22 same amount of money 8 less money 2 don't know 27. How about public colleges and universities? 57% more money 31 same amount of money 8 less money 4 don't know - 23 - May 2006 28. How about health and human services? 60% more money 25 same amount of money 12 less money 3 don't know 29. How about roads and other infrastructure projects? 58% more money 32 same amount of money 7 less money 3 don't know 30. Governor Schwarzenegger proposed a budget plan for the next fiscal year that includes increased spending on K-12 public education, health and human services, higher education, corrections and prisons, and transportation. The plan includes no new taxes. In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the Governor's budget plan? 57% satisfied 30 dissatisfied 6 haven't heard anything about the budget (volunteered) 7 don't know The state will have somewhat more revenue this year than was expected. Do you favor or oppose the following proposals for how to use this year’s additional money in next year’s budget, which begins on July 1, 2006? [rotate questions 31 to 32a] 31. Do you favor or oppose using some of this additional money to reduce the amount of state debt and place money in reserve? 76% favor 17 oppose 7 don't know 32. Do you favor or oppose using some of this additional money to increase K-12 public education funding? 77% favor 20 oppose 3 don't know 32a.Do you favor or oppose using some of this additional money to fund levee repairs? 67% favor 24 oppose 9 don't know 33. When it comes to the tough choices involved in the state budget, both in deciding how much Californians should pay in taxes and how to fund state programs, whose approach do you most prefer—[rotate] (1) Governor Schwarzenegger's, (2) the Democrats' in the legislature, [or] (3) the Republicans' in the legislature? 35% the Democrats' in the legislature 20 the Republicans' in the legislature 19 Governor Schwarzenegger's 1 other answer (specify) 5 none (volunteered) 20 don't know 34. In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more—I'd rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, or I'd rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services? 55% higher taxes and more services 38 lower taxes and fewer services 7 don't know Spending and tax reforms have been proposed to address issues in the state budget. For each of the following, please indicate whether you think this is a good idea or a bad idea. [rotate questions 35 and 36] 35. How about replacing the two-thirds vote requirement with a 55 percent majority vote for voters to pass local special taxes? 38% good idea 52 bad idea 10 don't know 36. How about replacing the two-thirds vote requirement with a 55 percent majority vote for the state legislature to pass a budget? 42% good idea 46 bad idea 12 don't know On another topic, [rotate questions 37 and 38] - 24 - 37. Where do you think California currently ranks in state and local government spending per capita? Compared to other states, is California's spending per capita near the top, above average, average, below average, or near the bottom? 23% near the top 23 above average 24 average 12 below average 5 near the bottom 13 don't know 38. Where do you think California currently ranks in state and local tax burden per capita? Compared to other states, is California's tax burden per capita near the top, above average, average, below average, or near the bottom? 29% near the top 28 above average 22 average 6 below average 4 near the bottom 11 don't know 39. As you may know, redistricting is the process in which the physical boundaries of voting districts are changed. Do you think the way the governor and legislature go about the redistricting process in California is in need of major changes, minor changes, or is it fine the way it is? 40% major changes 23 minor changes 23 fine the way it is 14 don't know 40. Would you favor or oppose a redistricting reform that requires an independent commission of citizens, instead of the state legislature and governor, to adopt a new redistricting plan after each census? 60% favor 25 oppose 15 don't know 41. On another topic, the California legislature has operated under term limits since 1990, meaning that members of the state senate and state assembly are limited in the number of terms they can hold their elected office. Do you think that term limits are a good thing or a bad thing for California, or do they make no difference? 60% good thing 15 bad thing 21 no difference 4 don't know 42. Under current term limits, a legislator is allowed to serve six years in the state assembly and eight years in the state senate. Would you favor or oppose a change in term limits that would allow members to serve up to 14 years of total legislative service in either branch? 28% favor 68 oppose 4 don't know 43. Changing topics, do you think that campaign contributions are currently having a good effect or a bad effect on the public policy decisions made by state elected officials in Sacramento, or are campaign contributions making no difference? 12% good effect 55 bad effect 23 making no difference 1 both (volunteered) 9 don't know 44. Would you favor or oppose having a system of public funding for state and legislative campaigns in California if it cost each taxpayer a few dollars a year to run? 47% favor 46 oppose 7 don't know 45. Next, do you approve or disapprove of the governor's plan to spend $222 billion over 10 years on infrastructure projects, including surface transportation, education facilities, air quality, water and flood control, jails and prisons, and courts? 70% approve 21 disapprove 9 don't know 46. Next, you may know the term "infrastructure" refers to a variety of public works projects. Which of the following do you think should have the top priority for additional state funding—[read rotated list and then ask "or something else?"] surface transportation, education facilities, flood protection? 50% education facilities 24 surface transportation 15 flood protection 7 something else (specify) 4 don't know - 25 - May 2006 The legislature recently passed a package of state bonds for the November ballot totaling about $37 billion for infrastructure projects such as education facilities, surface transportation, flood protection, and affordable housing to be paid through the state’s general funds with no new taxes. For each one, please tell me if you would vote yes or no if the election were held today. [rotate questions 47 to 48a] 47. How about a bond of about $20 billion for surface transportation projects? 62% yes 32 no 6 don't know 47a. How about a bond of about $10 billion for school and university construction and renovation? 74% yes 22 no 4 don't know 48. How about a bond of about $4 billion for flood protection projects? 62% yes 34 no 4 don't know 48a.How about a bond of about $3 billion for new affordable housing? 60% yes 37 no 3 don't know 49. Next, would you consider yourself to be politically: [read list, rotate order top to bottom] 10% very liberal 19 somewhat liberal 31 middle-of-the-road 26 somewhat conservative 10 very conservative 4 don't know 50. Generally speaking, how much interest would you say you have in politics—a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or none? 21% great deal 45 fair amount 27 only a little 6 none 1 don't know [D1-D12: demographic questions] - 26 - PPIC STATEWIDE SURVEY Advisory Committee Angela Blackwell Founder and Chief Executive Officer PolicyLink Paul Brest President The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Mollyann Brodie Vice President Kaiser Family Foundation Bruce E. Cain Director Institute of Governmental Studies University of California, Berkeley James E. Canales President The James Irvine Foundation Matthew K. Fong President Strategic Advisory Group William Hauck President California Business Roundtable Dennis A. Hunt Vice President Communications and Public Affairs The California Endowment Sherry Bebitch Jeffe Senior Scholar School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Carol S. Larson President and Chief Executive Officer The David and Lucile Packard Foundation Monica Lozano Publisher and Chief Executive Officer La Opinión Donna Lucas CEO Lucas Public Affairs Dan Rosenheim News Director KPIX-TV Carol Stogsdill President Stogsdill Consulting Cathy Taylor Vice President and Editorial Commentary Director Orange County Register Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center The PPIC Statewide Survey Advisory Committee is a diverse group of experts who provide advice on survey issues. However, survey methods, questions, content, and timing are determined solely by PPIC. - 27 - PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA Board of Directors Thomas C. Sutton, Chair Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Pacific Life Insurance Company David W. Lyon President and Chief Executive Officer Public Policy Institute of California Linda Griego President and Chief Executive Officer Griego Enterprises, Inc. Edward K. Hamilton Chairman Hamilton, Rabinovitz & Alschuler, Inc. Gary K. Hart Founder Institute for Education Reform California State University, Sacramento Cheryl White Mason Vice-President Litigation Legal Department Hospital Corporation of America Ki Suh Park Design and Managing Partner Gruen Associates Constance L. Rice Co-Director The Advancement Project Walter B. Hewlett Director Center for Computer Assisted Research in the Humanities Raymond L. Watson Vice Chairman of the Board Emeritus The Irvine Company Carol Whiteside President Great Valley Center Advisory Council Clifford W. Graves General Manager Community Development Department City of Los Angeles Elizabeth G. Hill Legislative Analyst State of California Hilary W. Hoynes Associate Professor Department of Economics University of California, Davis Andrés E. Jiménez Director California Policy Research Center University of California Office of the President Norman R. King Director, University Transportation Center California State University, San Bernardino Daniel A. Mazmanian School of Policy, Planning, and Development University of Southern California Dean Misczynski Director California Research Bureau Rudolf Nothenberg Chief Administrative Officer (Retired) City and County of San Francisco Manuel Pastor Professor, Latin American & Latino Studies University of California, Santa Cruz Peter Schrag Contributing Editor The Sacramento Bee James P. Smith Senior Economist RAND Corporation PUBLIC POLICY INSTITUTE OF CALIFORNIA 500 Washington Street, Suite 800 O San Francisco, California 94111 Phone: (415) 291-4400 O Fax: (415) 291-4401 www.ppic.org O info@ppic.org" ["post_date_gmt"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 09:38:34" ["comment_status"]=> string(4) "open" ["ping_status"]=> string(6) "closed" ["post_password"]=> string(0) "" ["post_name"]=> string(8) "s_506mbs" ["to_ping"]=> string(0) "" ["pinged"]=> string(0) "" ["post_modified"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 02:38:34" ["post_modified_gmt"]=> string(19) "2017-05-20 09:38:34" ["post_content_filtered"]=> string(0) "" ["guid"]=> string(50) "http://148.62.4.17/wp-content/uploads/S_506MBS.pdf" ["menu_order"]=> int(0) ["post_mime_type"]=> string(15) "application/pdf" ["comment_count"]=> string(1) "0" ["filter"]=> string(3) "raw" ["status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["attachment_authors"]=> bool(false) }