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Report · February 2005

Urban Development Futures in the San Joaquin Valley

Michael B. Teitz, Charles Dietzel, and William Fulton

Urban Development Futures in the San Joaquin Valley models urban growth in San Joaquin Valley over the next four decades. Its results, which include color maps to illustrate the spread of urbanization, will help policymakers and the public to assess the implications of that growth and to consider a range of policy responses. Taken together, the scenarios point to a tripling of the urbanized land stock by 2040, lower densities, and significant declines in farmland. They also indicate, however, that the Valley’s actual growth will partly depend on which public policy goals are emphasized. Many of these decisions will be made by the Valley’s local governments, which control most land use planning and permitting powers.