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California Cities and the Local Sales Tax

By Paul Lewis, Elisa Barbour

In California, local sales tax revenues accrue to the jurisdiction in which the sale occurs. This gives cities an incentive to promote the location of retail businesses within their boundaries. Although sales taxes account for only a modest portion of total city revenues, cities regard them highly because they represent a major share of their discretionary income. This study focuses on two crucial questions related to cities' pursuit of these revenues.  First, how does the sales tax affect land-use decisions?  If cities are systematically favoring retail development over other types of growth, this may negatively affect overall economic development in the state. Second, which types of communities are doing better or worse in the quest for these revenues?

Report

Will California Run Out of College Graduates?

By Hans Johnson, Sarah Bohn, Marisol Cuellar Mejia

California’s higher education system is a critical driver of the state’s economic progress. As the state’s economy continues to change, will its workforce be ready for the jobs of tomorrow?

This report updates and extends projections of California’s workforce skills through 2030, focusing on the supply and demand for workers with a bachelor’s degree. We find that the state will fall about 1.1 million college graduates short of economic demand if current trends persist—a problem we call the workforce skills gap. Even the arrival of highly educated workers from elsewhere is unlikely to be large enough to fill this gap.

Today’s college graduates have better economic outcomes than those who do not hold a bachelor’s degree. Over time, college graduates have seen lower rates of unemployment and higher wages than other workers—even through the Great Recession—suggesting that college degrees have become increasingly valuable in California’s labor market.

The future workforce skills gap looms large. But California and its higher education institutions can take several practical steps to close it. The core of a new plan for higher education should include increasing access to the state’s four-year institutions, improving college completion rates, expanding transfer pathways from community colleges, and being smart about aid programs.

Report

Immigrant Legalization: Assessing the Labor Market Effects

By Joseph Hayes, Laura Hill, Magnus Lofstrom

This report finds that a legalization program for unauthorized immigrants is unlikely to lead to dramatic changes in the labor market, for immigrant or native workers. It also finds little evidence to support expectations of significant effects on the broader economy, particularly in terms of tax revenues or public assistance programs. To assess labor market outcomes, the authors examined the work and migration histories of both unauthorized and continuously legal immigrants, comparing their experiences both before and after they became legal permanent residents.

Occasional Paper, Report

The Economic Effects of Mandated Wage Floors

By David Neumark

Presentation at forum: "Living Wage: What Business Groups Need to Know," U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Washington, D.C., February 20, 2004

California Counts, Report

How Immigrants Affect California Employment and Wages

By Giovanni Peri

This issue of California Counts examines the effects of the arrival of immigrants between 1960 and 2004 on the employment, population, and wages of U.S. natives in California. Among the study’s principal findings: 1) There is no evidence that the influx of immigrants over the past four decades has worsened the employment opportunities of natives with similar education and experience, 2) There is no association between the influx of immigrants and the out-migration of natives within the same education and age group, 3) Immigration induced a 4 percent real wage increase for the average native worker between 1990 and 2004, 4) Recent immigrants did lower the wages of previous immigrants.

Report

Higher Education in California: Meeting California’s Workforce Needs

By Hans Johnson, Sarah Bohn, Marisol Cuellar Mejia

Strong and growing demand for highly educated workers has been a hallmark of the state’s economy for decades, and forecasts show this demand continuing into the future. But the importance of increasing the number of college graduates goes beyond workforce needs.

Report

The Emerging Integration of the California-Mexico Economies

By Howard J. Shatz, Luis Felipe López-Calva

This volume examines the many ways in which California and Mexico are integrating, focusing in particular on trade and foreign direct investment.

Trade links between Mexico and California are deep, in the sense that the total value of traded goods is high, and broad, in the sense that many different types of goods are traded. California exports to Mexico are more diverse across product classes than California exports to the rest of the world. In addition, they embody less skill than do California exports to the rest of the world, implying that trade with Mexico has provided greater opportunity to production workers than has trade with the rest of the world. Between 2000 and 2002, more than 200,000 California workers each year produced exports to Mexico — 17 percent of all export-related jobs in the state.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) between California and Mexico — that is, cross-border investment used to establish or control a business — has also increased dramatically in recent years. Many Mexican-owned subsidiaries in California are in wholesale and retail trade, whereas 55 percent of California-owned subsidiaries in Mexico are in the manufacturing sector.

In addition to their analysis, the authors suggest a number of policy options that might further the economic integration of Mexico and California. They also note that whatever policies the state chooses, devoting more attention to the border area is a worthwhile starting point because the infrastructure of this region is so strongly affected by — and so strongly affects — the economic interaction of California and Mexico.

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