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What If California’s Drought Continues?

By Ellen Hanak, Jay Lund, Jeffrey Mount, Peter Moyle ...

California is in the fourth year of a severe, hot drought—the kind that is increasingly likely as the climate warms. Although no sector has been untouched, impacts so far have varied greatly, reflecting different levels of drought preparedness. Urban areas are in the best shape, thanks to sustained investments in diversified water portfolios and conservation. Farmers are more vulnerable, but they are also adapting. The greatest vulnerabilities are in some low-income rural communities where wells are running dry and in California’s wetlands, rivers, and forests, where the state’s iconic biodiversity is under extreme threat. Two to three more years of drought will increase challenges in all areas and require continued—and likely increasingly difficult—adaptations. Emergency programs will need to be significantly expanded to get drinking water to rural residents and to prevent major losses of waterbirds and extinctions of numerous native fish species, including most salmon runs. California also needs to start a longer-term effort to build drought resilience in the most vulnerable areas.

Report

Policy Priorities for Managing Drought

By Ellen Hanak, Jay Lund, Jeffrey Mount, Peter Moyle ...

State, federal, and local water managers have worked diligently to reduce the economic, social, and environmental harm from the current drought. But as the drought continues, the challenges will grow more acute. California can learn from experiences to date—and from Australia’s response to its Millennium Drought—to better prepare both for the year ahead and for future droughts. State leaders should address weaknesses in four areas of drought preparation and response, by: 1) improving water use information, 2) setting clear goals and priorities for public health and the environment, 3) promoting water conservation and more resilient water supplies, and 4) strengthening environmental management.

Report

Climate Change in California: Scenarios for Adaptation

By Amy Luers, Michael D. Mastrandrea

This report reviews the most recent assessments of the potential impacts of climate change in California, including sea level rise, higher air and water temperatures, reduced Sierra Nevada snowpack and changes in runoff patterns, and an increase in the frequency of extreme events such as droughts and floods. Resource managers, regional planners, and government agencies need to consider climate change in their planning, both to respond to long-term changes in the climate and to the occurrence of extreme events. This report was prepared as part of the Preparing California for a Changing Climate project.

Report

Preparing California for a Changing Climate

By Ellen Hanak, Louise Bedsworth

California has ambitious plans to cut greenhouse gas emissions. But the state also needs an integrated policy to prepare for―and adapt to―climate change. This report finds that some institutions, such as water agencies and electrical utilities, have already begun planning for change. But other areas have yet to prepare effectively for the challenges of a changing California.

More information can be found in the following supporting reports:

Climate Change in California: Scenarios for Adaptation

Adapting California’s Water Management to Climate Change

Adaptation of California’s Electricity Sector to Climate Change

California Coastal Management with a Changing Climate

Air Quality Planning and California’s Changing Climate

Climate Change and California’s Public Health Institutions

Conservation and Management of Ecological Systems in a Changing California

Report

Adaptation of California’s Electricity Sector to Climate Change

By Edward Vine

Changes in the climate will likely result in increased electricity demand, mainly as a result of the increased use of air conditioning. At the same time, hydroelectric power—one of the key sources used to meet peak summertime demands—will be threatened by the declining Sierra Nevada snowpack. The electricity sector is already considering the impacts of climate change, but steps are needed to invest in research, development, and demonstration to improve system resiliency and develop conservation tools. This report was prepared as part of the Preparing California for a Changing Climate project.

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