blog post A Large Proportion of Crime Goes Unsolved in California By Magnus Lofstrom May 11, 2023 California’s clearance rates—the shares of reported crimes for which police make an arrest and refer the arrestee to prosecution—are better than those nationwide. Still, statewide less than half of violent crimes and only one in ten property crimes are cleared.
blog post Testimony: Crime Data on Retail Theft and Robberies in California By Magnus Lofstrom Jan 4, 2024 At the inaugural hearing of the Assembly Select Committee on Retail Theft, PPIC policy director and senior fellow Magnus Lofstrom discussed trends in shoplifting and other offenses, including variations across the state.
Report Recidivism of Felony Offenders in California By Mia Bird, Justin Goss, Viet Nguyen Jun 19, 2019 California’s recent corrections reforms aimed to reduce persistently high recidivism rates. In the years following public safety realignment in 2011, have rearrest and reconviction rates for felony offenders changed?
Report Public Safety Realignment: Impacts So Far By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin Sep 28, 2015 Prompted by a federal court order to reduce prison overcrowding, California’s 2011 historic public safety realignment shifted many correctional responsibilities for lower-level felons from the state to counties. The reform was premised on the idea that locals can do a better job, and it was hoped that incarceration rates and corrections costs would fall. At the same time, critics predicted crime would rise. Four years since its implementation, realignment has made several important impacts: Realignment significantly reduced the prison population, but the state did not reach the court-mandated population target until after the passage of Proposition 47 in November 2014, which reduced penalties for many property and drug offenses. The reform challenged county jails and probation departments by making them responsible for a greater number of offenders with a broader range of backgrounds and needs. The county jail population did not rise nearly as much as the prison population fell, reducing the total number of people incarcerated in California. Realignment did not increase violent crime, but auto thefts rose. Research so far shows no dramatic change in recidivism rates. State corrections spending remains high, but there is reason to believe expenditures could drop in the future. Realignment has largely been successful, but the state and county correctional systems face significant challenges. The state needs to regain control of prison medical care, which is now in the hands of a federal receiver. And the state and counties together must make progress in reducing stubbornly high recidivism rates.
Report Key Factors in Arrest Trends and Differences in California’s Counties By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin, Justin Goss, Joseph Hayes Sep 9, 2019 Arrests in California have declined in the last few decades—driven by lower crime rates and criminal justice reforms. While rural, poorer counties tend to have higher overall arrest rates, affluent counties often see larger racial disparities in arrests.
Policy Brief Policy Brief: Are Younger Generations Committing Less Crime? By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin, Deepak Premkumar, Vicki Hsieh Sep 27, 2023 Historically, crime rates peak for those in their late teens and early 20s, but recent trends raise questions about whether this pattern is shifting.
blog post Violent Crimes Involving Guns Drive Recent Rise in Crime By Magnus Lofstrom, Brandon Martin Oct 19, 2022 While overall violent crime in California has risen slightly during the pandemic, homicides by firearms and aggravated assaults involving a gun have both surged since 2019.
