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Improving College Graduation Rates: A Closer Look at California State University

By Kevin Cook, Jacob Jackson

Low college graduation rates come at a high cost—lower salaries, lower tax revenue, and fewer college graduates in the workforce. At California State University (CSU), the nation's largest university system, graduation rates have an outsized financial and economic impact on students and the state.

CSU has made strides in improving graduation rates, but there is more work to be done. The system continues to struggle with graduation gaps—underrepresented students are much less likely to complete their degree compared to their peers, and these gaps have not narrowed over time. Also, CSU's on-time (four-year) graduation rates still lag behind those of similar universities nationwide.

By 2025, CSU aims to further increase graduation rates while cutting graduation gaps in half. To assist campus planning for this goal, we identify several promising programs and policies. More broadly, the CSU Chancellor's Office must work with campuses to evaluate and expand successful efforts, and the state must play a role in supporting new policies to move the needle on graduation gaps and on-time graduation.

Report

College Prep for All: Will San Diego Students Meet Challenging New Graduation Requirements?

By Julian Betts, Andrew C. Zau, Karen Bachofer, Sam M. Young

Several of California’s major urban school districts have adopted ambitious new high school graduation requirements, making college preparatory coursework mandatory. This analysis—which focuses on San Diego—finds that the new requirements are likely to help many students but may damage the prospects of others. San Diego and other districts can take steps to help lower-achieving students meet the new graduation goals.

Report

Will California Run Out of College Graduates?

By Hans Johnson, Sarah Bohn, Marisol Cuellar Mejia

California’s higher education system is a critical driver of the state’s economic progress. As the state’s economy continues to change, will its workforce be ready for the jobs of tomorrow?

This report updates and extends projections of California’s workforce skills through 2030, focusing on the supply and demand for workers with a bachelor’s degree. We find that the state will fall about 1.1 million college graduates short of economic demand if current trends persist—a problem we call the workforce skills gap. Even the arrival of highly educated workers from elsewhere is unlikely to be large enough to fill this gap.

Today’s college graduates have better economic outcomes than those who do not hold a bachelor’s degree. Over time, college graduates have seen lower rates of unemployment and higher wages than other workers—even through the Great Recession—suggesting that college degrees have become increasingly valuable in California’s labor market.

The future workforce skills gap looms large. But California and its higher education institutions can take several practical steps to close it. The core of a new plan for higher education should include increasing access to the state’s four-year institutions, improving college completion rates, expanding transfer pathways from community colleges, and being smart about aid programs.

Report

Successful Online Courses in California’s Community Colleges

By Hans Johnson, Marisol Cuellar Mejia, Kevin Cook

California's community colleges have taken the lead in online learning in the state. But students are less successful in online courses than they are in traditional ones. Taking a more data-driven, integrated, and systematic approach can improve course quality and student outcomes—but it’s not likely to lower costs.

This research was supported with funding from the Donald Bren Foundation.

Report

Higher Education in California: Performance Budgeting

By Hans Johnson, Patrick Murphy, Margaret Weston, Kevin Cook

As California begins to reinvest in public higher education after several years of budget cuts, it could opt to tie funding more closely with outcomes—for example, the number of students educated or degrees awarded. This approach, known as performance-based funding, has the potential to incentivize investment by the state’s higher education systems in areas that further state priorities. Drawing on California’s minimal experience with performance-based funding and the approaches other states have pursued, this report raises four important questions for the state to consider if it wants to link funding for higher education with outcomes without compromising on either quality or equity.

Report

Higher Education in California: Student Costs

By Jacob Jackson

Increases in tuition across California’s public four-year universities have heightened concerns about the affordability of a college education, especially for those with the lowest incomes. In-state full tuition at the University of California (UC) and California State University (CSU) has risen more dramatically than at other public universities in other states over the past decade. During this same period, the federal, state, and institutional grant and scholarship programs that help make college affordable for students from lower- and middle-income families expanded. This helped lower-income families keep up with rising tuition, but the full price of college beyond tuition can still be a relatively large share of their income. Given the importance of higher education to California’s economic future, policymakers at the federal, state, and institutional levels need to make a continuing commitment to keep college affordable for students from low- and middle-income families. Also, given current tuition levels, it is more important than ever for the state to ensure that all students fill out financial aid forms and can easily access tools that can help them understand the financial aid packages they are offered.

Report

Higher Education in California: Institutional Costs

By Hans Johnson, Patrick Murphy, Margaret Weston, Kevin Cook

Over the past 20 years, in-state tuition at both the University of California (UC) and the California State University (CSU) has more than tripled. These tuition increases have led many to believe that spending in the state’s public higher education systems is out of control. However, a closer look reveals that institutional expenditures in the two systems—including faculty salaries and benefits, the largest budget category—have not increased significantly. Our evaluation of both revenues and expenditures shows that recent tuition increases have been driven by dramatic reductions in state subsidies to UC and CSU. In the past, General Fund contributions covered the majority of educational costs. Today, students (often with help from federal, state, institutional, and private grants) pay most of these costs through tuition and associated fees. Better budget data could help policymakers monitor costs and align higher education funding with state goals. But it is clear that tuition at California’s public universities has risen much more rapidly than the cost of providing higher education.

Report

Making College Possible for Low-Income Students: Grant and Scholarship Aid in California

By Hans Johnson

California’s economic future depends on improving college enrollment and completion. But college costs are rising and a majority of students in California’s public K–12 schools are from low-income families. Policymakers can pursue a number of strategies to make college more affordable and accessible.

This research was supported with funding from the College Access Foundation of California and the Donald Bren Foundation.

Report

California’s Need for Skilled Workers

By Sarah Bohn

If recent trends continue, California is likely to face a shortage of workers with some college education but less than a bachelor’s degree by 2025. State and federal policymakers have increased their focus on boosting educational opportunities for this segment of the workforce. This report examines labor market outcomes among workers with some college training to shed light on the types of jobs that hold the most promise for future workers and the state economy.

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