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Predicting Success, Preventing Failure: An Investigation of the California High School Exit Exam

By Julian Betts, Andrew C. Zau

Many educators, parents, and policymakers continue to call for reforms to the California High School Exit Exam (CAHSEE), citing concern about the 10 percent of California students who do not graduate because of their failure to pass the test. By law, current funding for tutoring those at risk of failing the CAHSEE is targeted at those in grade 12 and beyond. But is this the best use of limited resources? The authors suggest that earlier interventions are possible and are likely to be more effective. Using the San Diego Unified School District as a test case, they are able to predict passage of the CAHSEE as early as grade 4. Based on these findings, the authors offer new approaches to funding CAHSEE-related programs.

Report

From Blueprint to Reality: San Diego’s Education Reforms

By Julian Betts, Andrew C. Zau, Kevin King

During the 1999-2000 and 2000-2001 school years, the San Diego Unified School District introduced a focused set of reforms to improve San Diego students’ reading and literacy skills called the Blueprint for Student Success. The changes the district implemented included new teaching materials, double- and even triple-length English classes where necessary, additional teacher training, and more classroom time for reading practice and instruction. This report presents the first student-level evaluation of that effort and shows that the Blueprint reforms in large part accomplished what they set out to do: reading scores at elementary and middle-school level improved among students who participated in Blueprint activities, and achievement gaps among different racial and ethnic, language, and socioeconomic groups narrowed.

Report

Determinants of Student Achievement: New Evidence from San Diego

By Julian Betts, Andrew C. Zau, Lorien A. Rice

This report presents the results of a unique study conducted by the authors in collaboration with the San Diego Unified School District (the second-largest district in California). For this study, the authors compiled a highly detailed, student-level database that enabled them to link factors influencing student achievement in ways that have not been possible with the state-level data generally used in such studies. In this report, they examine resource inequalities across schools, explore trends in achievement, and, most important, provide detailed statistical estimates of the school and classroom factors that most influence student achievement.

Some of their findings:

  • The lowest socioeconomic status (SES) schools generally receive fewer resources than more-affluent schools, especially in the case of teacher qualifications in elementary schools.
  • An individual student's rate of learning is influenced by the academic ability of peers in his or her classroom and grade. Classroom-level peer effects are stronger in elementary school. Grade-level peer effects are stronger in middle and high school.
  • Class size influences gains in reading achievement in elementary grades but does not appear to be of significant importance in middle and high schools.
  • Teacher qualifications can make a difference, but the various measures of qualification have sporadic and varying effects in elementary, middle, and high schools, as well as on gains in math and reading achievement.

The authors conclude the study with a discussion of the implications of their findings, especially in light of the grim new financial reality facing most school districts as a result of California's serious budget deficits.

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