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Will California Run Out of College Graduates?

By Hans Johnson, Sarah Bohn, Marisol Cuellar Mejia

California’s higher education system is a critical driver of the state’s economic progress. As the state’s economy continues to change, will its workforce be ready for the jobs of tomorrow?

This report updates and extends projections of California’s workforce skills through 2030, focusing on the supply and demand for workers with a bachelor’s degree. We find that the state will fall about 1.1 million college graduates short of economic demand if current trends persist—a problem we call the workforce skills gap. Even the arrival of highly educated workers from elsewhere is unlikely to be large enough to fill this gap.

Today’s college graduates have better economic outcomes than those who do not hold a bachelor’s degree. Over time, college graduates have seen lower rates of unemployment and higher wages than other workers—even through the Great Recession—suggesting that college degrees have become increasingly valuable in California’s labor market.

The future workforce skills gap looms large. But California and its higher education institutions can take several practical steps to close it. The core of a new plan for higher education should include increasing access to the state’s four-year institutions, improving college completion rates, expanding transfer pathways from community colleges, and being smart about aid programs.

Report

Policy Priorities for Managing Drought

By Ellen Hanak, Jay Lund, Jeffrey Mount, Peter Moyle ...

State, federal, and local water managers have worked diligently to reduce the economic, social, and environmental harm from the current drought. But as the drought continues, the challenges will grow more acute. California can learn from experiences to date—and from Australia’s response to its Millennium Drought—to better prepare both for the year ahead and for future droughts. State leaders should address weaknesses in four areas of drought preparation and response, by: 1) improving water use information, 2) setting clear goals and priorities for public health and the environment, 3) promoting water conservation and more resilient water supplies, and 4) strengthening environmental management.

Report

Implementing Local Accountability in California’s Schools: The First Year of Planning

By Paul Warren, Giselle Carrillo

The passage of the Local Control Funding Formula (LCFF) in 2013 gave California school districts flexibility in allocating resources and significantly boosted state support for the education of disadvantaged students. LCFF also includes a Local Control and Accountability Plan (LCAP), which requires districts to enlist the help of parents and the public in identifying student performance goals and ways to achieve them. Our research in 25 California districts suggests that educators have worked hard to develop the first of these three-year plans, but that knowledge about strategic planning, data-driven decisionmaking, and involving parents and the public in the process varies significantly among districts. As a consequence, the clarity and effectiveness of the initial plans varies widely. The state can help by making technical assistance to districts and county offices of education available and affordable. Our research also indicates that expanding the role of county offices would help them push for improved student performance.

Report

California’s Need for Skilled Workers

By Sarah Bohn

If recent trends continue, California is likely to face a shortage of workers with some college education but less than a bachelor’s degree by 2025. State and federal policymakers have increased their focus on boosting educational opportunities for this segment of the workforce. This report examines labor market outcomes among workers with some college training to shed light on the types of jobs that hold the most promise for future workers and the state economy.

blog post

Online Courses and Achievement Gaps

By Hans Johnson, Marisol Cuellar Mejia

Online learning offers the promise of expanded access to and success in higher education. To truly fulfill that promise, it must do so across the diverse population of California students.

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