As the 2025–26 school year comes to a close, another class of California high school seniors is preparing to enter adulthood—many by enrolling in college. California parents dream big when it comes to their children’s education: Three in four parents of school-aged children hope their youngest child will earn at least a bachelor’s degree (34%; 41% graduate degree), according to a recent PPIC Statewide Survey. Long considered part of the path to economic prosperity, a bachelor’s degree continues to reap economic dividends for Californians.

High aspirations are broadly shared across public school parents and among both mothers and fathers; however, mothers are more likely than fathers to hope for a graduate degree (mothers: 29% bachelor’s, 45% graduate; fathers: 42%, bachelor’s, 36% graduate). Parents age 45 and older, and those with college degrees themselves, are more likely than younger or less-educated parents to hold these aspirations.

On the surface, parents’ optimism seems warranted. According to the survey, most Californians (57% adults, 63% parents of school-aged children) say their local public schools are doing a good or excellent job of preparing students for college. More than 90% of California public high school graduates have access to a college prep (or A-G) curriculum required to be eligible for admission to UC and CSU, and more than 70% of high school seniors enroll in college within 12 months of graduation.

Yet how students are prepared matters enormously, particularly for their chances of directly entering bachelor’s degree programs. Fewer than half of public high schools require the college prep curriculum as a graduation requirement and 54% of graduates complete it, making almost half of California high school graduates ineligible for admission at UC or CSU.

The consequences are reflected in what college-bound students do next. In California, they are much more likely to enroll at the California Community Colleges than in the four-year public systems: 39% enroll in a CCC, 13% go to CSU, and 9% attend UC. Approximately 10% attend a private in-state or an out-of-state college.

These outcomes matter, because where students first enroll impacts their likelihood of completing a bachelor’s degree—and meeting their parents’ aspirations. Systemwide, four-year graduation rates at UC are nearly double those at CSU (73% versus 36%); six-year rates also differ (UC 86%; CSU 62%). Variation in outcomes is notable across campuses and demographic groups. For students who begin at community colleges, most of whom enter aspiring to a bachelor’s degree, the pathway is even more tenuous: on average, about 18% will earn a bachelor’s degree at UC or CSU after 8 years, compared to 72% of high school graduates who started at CSU or UC.

California parents’ ambitious expectations for their children’s education reflects that they recognize the value of a college degree. Meeting their expectations will require strengthening and streamlining policies so that more high school students are eligible for UC and CSU and that more community college students transfer in a timely manner.

The state has taken some promising steps in this direction. Efforts to align various college prep and career readiness efforts—for example, the Golden State Pathways Program—are likely to systematically increase the number of high school graduates prepared to enroll in UC and CSU. Based on early impacts, further implementation of the Associate Degree for Transfer (SB 1440) across all majors could also help accelerate transfer and, ultimately, bachelor’s degree completion. This work is not only essential for fulfilling family dreams—it is also critical to the state’s long-term economic competitiveness and regional prosperity.