While launching the PPIC Statewide Survey in 1998, a GOP campaign manager shared this bit of political wisdom with us: “A-G-E”—abortion, guns, and environment—play an oversize role in California elections.

We have been tracking these three salient issues for the past 25 years. Californians’ support for abortion rights, gun control, and environmental protection have been steadfast, and they are good predictors of the successes and failures of statewide candidates. This election cycle A-G-E has taken on an additional meaning, with much ado surrounding the biological age of 80-year-old Joe Biden. Will age be a limiting factor as Biden runs for a second term as president? Ironically, Californians’ support for the president is closely aligned with their A-G-E preferences. This offers a distinct political advantage for Biden early in the 2024 election context.

How popular is the president in California? In 2020, Joe Biden lost to Bernie Sanders in the March primary (36% to 28%) and then won by a landslide in the general election when facing Donald Trump (64% to 34%). Since then, Biden’s job approval ratings have mostly been in positive territory and on the upswing compared to a year ago.

President Biden’s overall approval stands at 56% in the February PPIC Survey among likely voters. Half or more across age, gender, income, and racial/ethnic groups approve of the president. Majorities of self-described liberals (83%) and moderates (60%) compared to 14% of conservatives approve. Majorities of Democrats (83%) and independents (54%)—but just 9% of Republicans—approve of the job performance of President Biden.

It’s worth remembering that in California today Democrats outnumber Republicans by almost two to one; independents make up about a quarter of the state’s electorate.

Biden’s majority approval ratings are remarkable in light of the fact that only 30% of California likely voters think that things in the US are generally going in the right direction. Moreover, fewer than half hold this view across partisan groups (44% Democrats, 23% independent, 11% Republicans), regions of the state, and age, education, income, and racial/ethnic groups. But as illustrated in the chart below, positive opinions about the state of the nation have been the minority viewpoint for most of the past 20 years. So California likely voters do not seem to be blaming their current president for this state of affairs.

What about the role of A-G-E in explaining the support for President Joe Biden?

Abortion. In the wake of the Supreme Court’s ruling to overturn Roe v Wade, the overwhelming majority of California likely voters think that abortion should be legal in all (36%) or most (37%) cases. Majorities across age, education, gender, income, regional, and racial/ethnic groups hold this view. Overwhelming majorities of Democrats and independents, and 44% of Republicans, say that abortion should be legal. Strong majorities (68%) who believe that abortion should be legal approve of President Biden, and 89% of those who approve of President Biden say that abortion should be legal in all or most cases.

Guns. With ongoing reports of mass shootings and gun violence, two thirds of California likely voters say that it is more important to control gun ownership than to protect the right of Americans to own guns (66% to 34%). A decade ago, Californians were evenly divided (49% control gun ownership, 48% protect right to own guns). Today, majorities across age, education, gender, income, regional, and racial/ethnic groups think controlling gun ownership is more important—with overwhelming majorities of Democrats and independents, and 22% of Republicans, holding this view. Overwhelming majorities (77%) who prioritize controlling gun ownership approve of President Biden, and 91% of those who approve of President Biden prioritize controlling gun ownership.

Environment. As the state grapples with a host of environmental problems including drought, floods, and extreme weather events, 72% of likely voters think it is necessary to take steps to counter climate change right away; just 27% think it is not necessary to take steps yet. Majorities across age, education, gender, income, regional, and racial/ethnic groups say action is needed right away—with overwhelming majorities of Democrats and independents, and 27% of Republicans, holding this view. Overwhelming majorities (76%) who support action right away approve of President Biden, and 97% of those who approve of President Biden support action right away on climate change.

In addition to these key issues, LGBTQ rights have surfaced as a notable political dimension in the 2024 presidential election, and Californians’ preferences on LGBTQ rights are highly aligned with their support for President Biden. California likely voters overwhelmingly favor allowing gay and lesbian couples to enter into same-sex marriages (75%), as well as laws and policies that protect transgender individuals from discrimination (75%). Majorities across age, education, gender, income, regional, and racial/ethnic groups hold these views. Overwhelming majorities of Democrats and independents, and more than four in ten Republicans, express support on these two issues. Strong majorities in favor of these rights approve of Biden, and about nine in ten who approve of Biden are in favor of both marriage equality and the protection of transgender individuals from discrimination.

With a majority of California likely voters in support of Biden as he starts his bid for a second term, the state looks like it will remain true blue. Biden’s support is aligned with Californians’ preferences on A-G-E issues and LGBTQ rights, pointing to a favorable view of his track record in critical policy domains today. A Democratic victory in a blue state where a Republican presidential candidate has not won since 1988 may seem like a foregone conclusion.

But will a second Biden candidacy generate enthusiasm among a broad spectrum of voters? Will it impact turnout in a state where 52 House seats will help determine party control of a closely divided Congress? Will a sudden change in economic fortunes lead to a reshuffling of voters’ priorities in 2024? We’re in the early days of this election cycle, and so much can happen. We’ll continue to keep a watchful eye on the political events unfolding through the PPIC Statewide Survey.