California is on the cusp of an unprecedented demographic shift: projections indicate a dramatic increase in the state’s older adult population by 2040. At a virtual PPIC event last week, Hans Johnson outlined a new report that looks at key characteristics of California’s older population and how they are expected to change in the coming decades; he and report coauthor Paulette Cha then answered audience questions.
Johnson noted that state policymakers already have tools and measures to help them plan for this shift. He highlighted population projections by the state Department of Finance and the state’s Master Plan on Aging, which focuses on a broad spectrum of issues: housing, health care, equity and inclusion, caregiving, and economic security. However, data on future changes in socioeconomic and other characteristics of the state’s older population is limited. PPIC’s report takes an initial step toward filling in these demographic gaps.
“Between 2020 and 2040,” Johnson noted, “the population of older Californians is going to grow from slightly less than 6 million to over 9 million—an increase of more than 50%.” By 2040, 22% of Californians will be 65 or older, up from 14% in 2020. Growth will be especially dramatic among 75-to-84-year-olds.
In addition, California’s older adult population will be increasingly diverse. The share of older adults who are foreign born will rise to about 40% by 2040 (up from 29% in 2020); the number will almost double. “This increase in diversity is driven by past immigration flows, which really picked up in the 1980s, primarily from Latin America and Asia,” said Johnson. “Many of those who came to California mostly as young adults in the 1980s and onward are hitting retirement age or will do so over the next 20 years.”
Johnson stressed the importance of looking at changes in both numbers and percentages. On the one hand, increases among small groups look much more dramatic in percentage terms. “For example, adults 90 and older are the fastest-growing group, but there aren’t that many 90-and-older Californians, so the numeric change is not as dramatic,” he said. On the other hand, the dramatic overall increase in the older adult population means that while the percentage of older adults living alone or in poverty (to name two examples) is expected decline, their numbers will increase.
Accounting for differing needs and challenges across age groups is also key. As Paulette Cha put it: “A lot of times when we talk about the older adult population, we paint that group—60-plus or 65-plus—with a really broad brush, when in fact there are really different stages within that age range.” For example, “75 to 84 may not be the just-retired, traveling to see the world, helping raise grandchildren stage of life,” she said. “I think that’s a period when you really want to be getting quality, culturally appropriate health care.”
Johnson noted that PPIC’s Understanding California’s Future initiative plans to build on the findings in this report. Areas of focus may include housing and homelessness, long-term care affordability, and regional variations in aging and services. As Johnson put it, “I think this is a core area for PPIC going forward—I’m excited about the possibilities.”
