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Eventbriefing Statewidesurvey1217

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object(Timber\Post)#3742 (44) { ["ImageClass"]=> string(12) "Timber\Image" ["PostClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Post" ["TermClass"]=> string(11) "Timber\Term" ["object_type"]=> string(4) "post" ["custom"]=> array(5) { ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(37) "eventbriefing_statewidesurvey1217.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "414327" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(9207) "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government December 1, 2017 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Lunna Lopes Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation, the California Endowment, and the PPIC Donor Circle Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 2 PPIC Statewide Survey mission  Provide timely, relevant, nonpartisan data on political, social, and economic opinions  Inform and improve state policymaking, raise awareness, encourage discussion  Provide a voice for all Californians in important state policy debates – 330,000+ Californians interviewed since 1998 – 160+ general, issue, and regional surveys 3 Californians and Their Government  General series funded by the James Irvine Foundation, the California Endowment, and the PPIC Donor Circle  Telephone interviews, November 10–19, 2017 – 65% cell phone, 35% landline – 1,704 adults, ± 3.4% margin of error – 1,070 likely voters, ± 4.3% margin of error  Views on gubernatorial and US Senate elections and candidates  Opinions on state elected officials, federal tax reform, and immigration policy 4 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 5 Gubernatorial election preferences Gavin Newsom Antonio Villaraigosa John Chiang John Cox Travis Allen Delaine Eastin Someone else (vol.) Don’t know 9 9 6 3 1 0 23 18 30 20 40 % likely voters 60 6 Satisfaction with gubernatorial candidates In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the primary election for governor next June? 80 60 % 40 20 48 31 0 All likely voters 61 19 Dem 47 30 Rep Satisfied Not satisfied 43 35 Ind 7 Favorability of gubernatorial candidates % likely voters 100 80 61 60 40 21 20 10 8 0 Travis Allen 36 27 23 13 John Chiang 62 10 8 20 John Cox 56 12 15 17 Delaine Eastin Favorable Unfavorable Never heard of Don’t know 39 24 19 17 31 32 22 15 Gavin Newsom Antonia Villaraigosa 8 % likely voters % likely voters US Senate race 100 Candidate preferences 80 60 45 40 33 21 20 1 0 Dianne Kevin Someone Don’t Feinstein de León else (vol) know 100 Candidate qualities 80 60 48 51 39 40 20 17 19 17 0 Kevin de León 54 Dianne Feinstein Favorable Unfavorable Never heard of Don’t know 9 Candidate qualities: experience or new ideas Which of the following is more important to you in candidates for statewide office, such as governor or US senator: experience and a proven record or new ideas and a different approach? % likely voters 100 80 60 40 20 48 42 0 All likely voters Experience and a proven record New ideas and a different approach 55 34 60 29 54 36 Dem Rep Ind 10 Candidate qualities: work with or push back against the Trump administration Which of the following is more important to you in candidates for statewide office, such as governor or US senator: that they work with the Trump administration or that they push back against the Trump administration? % likely voters 100 80 60 51 41 40 20 0 All likely voters Work with Trump administration Push back against Trump administration 86 78 13 Dem 10 Rep 42 45 Ind 11 Importance of potential ballot issues Next, several issues will be decided by California voters in the November 2018 election. Please tell me how important each of the following issues is to you. How about… % likely voters 100 Somewhat important Very important 80 19 60 18 25 40 59 20 54 48 19 18 0 Single-payer Repealing the The state bond Expanding the size health recently passed for affordable of the California insurance gas tax housing legislature 12 Proposition 14: top-two primary system Overall, do you feel that passing Proposition 14 turned out to be mostly a good thing for California or mostly a bad thing? All likely voters Dem Ind Mostly a good thing Mixed/don’t know (vol) Mostly a bad thing 60 13 26 71 14 16 63 13 24 Rep 0 45 12 43 20 40 60 80 100 % 13 SB 450: new election model with automatic vote by mail Overall, do you feel that passing Senate Bill 450 turned out to be mostly a good thing for California or mostly a bad thing? All likely voters Mostly a good thing Mixed/don’t know (vol) 74 Dem 86 Mostly a bad thing 6 20 4 11 Ind 73 8 19 Rep 0 57 9 20 40 60 % 34 80 100 14 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 15 Direction of state and nation 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 53 29 All adults Belief that things in _________ are generally going in the right direction 70 California United States 49 48 49 18 13 28 27 Dem Rep Ind Likely voters 16 Approval of state elected officials % adults 100 80 60 42 40 20 25 0 Governor Brown California Legislature 53 49 Governor Brown California Legislature 100 80 % 60 40 20 53 49 53 46 72 69 20 20 56 44 0 All Likely Dem adults voters Rep Ind 17 Approval of federal elected officials % adults 100 80 60 40 33 20 30 0 Jan 17 President Trump US Congress 28 22 Dec 17 President Trump 100 US Congress 80 75 % 60 40 34 28 22 20 15 15 7 0 All Likely Dem adults voters 21 Rep 28 19 Ind 18 Opinion of Republican tax proposals Overall, do you favor or oppose the tax reform proposals made by the Republicans in Congress? 100 80 60 % 40 20 45 31 24 58 25 17 0 US* California *November CNN poll. 84 88 Dem Favor Oppose Don't know 58 59 24 18 29 12 Rep Ind 19 Personal impact of tax proposals From what you know of those proposals, do you think you and your family will be better off, worse off, or about the same if they are passed and signed into law? All adults Likely voters Under $40,000 $40,000 to $80,000 Better off About the same Worse off 16 35 39 20 33 41 15 35 37 14 38 41 $80,000 or more 18 34 41 0 20 40 60 80 % 100 20 Lowering corporate taxes and the economy Do you think that lowering taxes for large businesses and corporations would help the economy, hurt the economy, or not make a difference? All adults Likely voters Under $40,000 $40,000 to $80,000 $80,000 or more 0 Help No difference Hurt 29 22 44 35 20 41 25 21 47 33 21 43 32 20 24 40 60 % 42 80 100 21 Components of Republican tax proposals Eliminating deductions for state and local income and sales taxes 80 60 % 40 50 35 20 42 40 55 34 65 25 0 All adults Under $40,000 - $80,00 or $40,000 $80,000 more Favor Oppose Allowing the home interest deduction only on the first $500,000 of mortgage debt 80 60 % 40 49 36 20 48 29 55 36 46 46 0 All adults Under $40,000 - $80,00 or $40,000 $80,000 more Favor Oppose 22 Undocumented immigrants Which comes closer to your view about how to handle undocumented immigrants who are living in the US? There should be a way for them to stay in the country legally, if certain requirements are met, or they should not be allowed to stay in this country legally. 100 80 % 60 40 20 0 86 12 All adults A way for them to stay legally Should not be allowed to stay 90 89 94 80 97 African Asian Americans Americans 6 Latinos 17 Whites 23 Concern about increased federal immigration enforcement When it comes to increased federal immigration enforcement, how much do you worry that someone that you know could be deported? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 20 21 29 28 21 14 All adults African Asian Americans Americans 17 57 Latinos 18 12 Whites Some A lot 19 20 48 18 Born in US Not born in US 24 Favorability of major political parties % adults 100 80 60 58 40 35 20 0 Democratic Party Republican Party 48 26 100 80 72 60 % 40 20 48 26 8 0 All adults Dem Democratic Party Republican Party 59 14 38 24 44 26 Rep Ind Likely voters 25 Need for a third major party In your view, do the Republican and Democratic parties do an adequate job representing the American people, or do they do such a poor job that a third major party is needed? 100 80 60 % 40 20 60 29 0 All adults 59 33 Dem 62 28 Rep Adequate job Third party is needed 72 64 27 20 Ind Likely voters 26 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 27 Conclusions  Gavin Newsom and Antonio Villaraigosa are the top two candidates in the gubernatorial primary, but three in ten likely voters are undecided.  Senator Feinstein is leading Kevin de León by a two-to-one margin with a third of likely voters undecided.  About half of likely voters prefer candidates for statewide office who will offer new ideas and push back against the Trump administration.  Most Californians oppose the Republican tax reform proposals; few believe they would be better off personally.  Across parties, Californians say there should be a way for undocumented immigrants to stay in the country legally. 28 PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government December 1, 2017 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Lunna Lopes Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation, the California Endowment, and the PPIC Donor Circle Notes on the use of these slides These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid misinterpretations, please contact: Dean Bonner (bonner@ppic.org; 415-291-4497) Thank you for your interest in this work. 30" } ["___content":protected]=> string(152) "

Eventbriefing Statewidesurvey1217

" ["_permalink":protected]=> string(126) "https://www.ppic.org/event/statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-december-2017/eventbriefing_statewidesurvey1217/" ["_next":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_prev":protected]=> array(0) { } ["_css_class":protected]=> NULL ["id"]=> int(12838) ["ID"]=> int(12838) ["post_author"]=> string(1) "9" ["post_content"]=> string(0) "" ["post_date"]=> string(19) "2017-12-01 09:33:17" ["post_excerpt"]=> string(0) "" ["post_parent"]=> int(12720) ["post_status"]=> string(7) "inherit" ["post_title"]=> string(33) "Eventbriefing Statewidesurvey1217" ["post_type"]=> string(10) "attachment" ["slug"]=> string(33) "eventbriefing_statewidesurvey1217" ["__type":protected]=> NULL ["_wp_attached_file"]=> string(37) "eventbriefing_statewidesurvey1217.pdf" ["wpmf_size"]=> string(6) "414327" ["wpmf_filetype"]=> string(3) "pdf" ["wpmf_order"]=> string(1) "0" ["searchwp_content"]=> string(9207) "PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government December 1, 2017 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Lunna Lopes Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation, the California Endowment, and the PPIC Donor Circle Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 2 PPIC Statewide Survey mission  Provide timely, relevant, nonpartisan data on political, social, and economic opinions  Inform and improve state policymaking, raise awareness, encourage discussion  Provide a voice for all Californians in important state policy debates – 330,000+ Californians interviewed since 1998 – 160+ general, issue, and regional surveys 3 Californians and Their Government  General series funded by the James Irvine Foundation, the California Endowment, and the PPIC Donor Circle  Telephone interviews, November 10–19, 2017 – 65% cell phone, 35% landline – 1,704 adults, ± 3.4% margin of error – 1,070 likely voters, ± 4.3% margin of error  Views on gubernatorial and US Senate elections and candidates  Opinions on state elected officials, federal tax reform, and immigration policy 4 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 5 Gubernatorial election preferences Gavin Newsom Antonio Villaraigosa John Chiang John Cox Travis Allen Delaine Eastin Someone else (vol.) Don’t know 9 9 6 3 1 0 23 18 30 20 40 % likely voters 60 6 Satisfaction with gubernatorial candidates In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the primary election for governor next June? 80 60 % 40 20 48 31 0 All likely voters 61 19 Dem 47 30 Rep Satisfied Not satisfied 43 35 Ind 7 Favorability of gubernatorial candidates % likely voters 100 80 61 60 40 21 20 10 8 0 Travis Allen 36 27 23 13 John Chiang 62 10 8 20 John Cox 56 12 15 17 Delaine Eastin Favorable Unfavorable Never heard of Don’t know 39 24 19 17 31 32 22 15 Gavin Newsom Antonia Villaraigosa 8 % likely voters % likely voters US Senate race 100 Candidate preferences 80 60 45 40 33 21 20 1 0 Dianne Kevin Someone Don’t Feinstein de León else (vol) know 100 Candidate qualities 80 60 48 51 39 40 20 17 19 17 0 Kevin de León 54 Dianne Feinstein Favorable Unfavorable Never heard of Don’t know 9 Candidate qualities: experience or new ideas Which of the following is more important to you in candidates for statewide office, such as governor or US senator: experience and a proven record or new ideas and a different approach? % likely voters 100 80 60 40 20 48 42 0 All likely voters Experience and a proven record New ideas and a different approach 55 34 60 29 54 36 Dem Rep Ind 10 Candidate qualities: work with or push back against the Trump administration Which of the following is more important to you in candidates for statewide office, such as governor or US senator: that they work with the Trump administration or that they push back against the Trump administration? % likely voters 100 80 60 51 41 40 20 0 All likely voters Work with Trump administration Push back against Trump administration 86 78 13 Dem 10 Rep 42 45 Ind 11 Importance of potential ballot issues Next, several issues will be decided by California voters in the November 2018 election. Please tell me how important each of the following issues is to you. How about… % likely voters 100 Somewhat important Very important 80 19 60 18 25 40 59 20 54 48 19 18 0 Single-payer Repealing the The state bond Expanding the size health recently passed for affordable of the California insurance gas tax housing legislature 12 Proposition 14: top-two primary system Overall, do you feel that passing Proposition 14 turned out to be mostly a good thing for California or mostly a bad thing? All likely voters Dem Ind Mostly a good thing Mixed/don’t know (vol) Mostly a bad thing 60 13 26 71 14 16 63 13 24 Rep 0 45 12 43 20 40 60 80 100 % 13 SB 450: new election model with automatic vote by mail Overall, do you feel that passing Senate Bill 450 turned out to be mostly a good thing for California or mostly a bad thing? All likely voters Mostly a good thing Mixed/don’t know (vol) 74 Dem 86 Mostly a bad thing 6 20 4 11 Ind 73 8 19 Rep 0 57 9 20 40 60 % 34 80 100 14 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 15 Direction of state and nation 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 53 29 All adults Belief that things in _________ are generally going in the right direction 70 California United States 49 48 49 18 13 28 27 Dem Rep Ind Likely voters 16 Approval of state elected officials % adults 100 80 60 42 40 20 25 0 Governor Brown California Legislature 53 49 Governor Brown California Legislature 100 80 % 60 40 20 53 49 53 46 72 69 20 20 56 44 0 All Likely Dem adults voters Rep Ind 17 Approval of federal elected officials % adults 100 80 60 40 33 20 30 0 Jan 17 President Trump US Congress 28 22 Dec 17 President Trump 100 US Congress 80 75 % 60 40 34 28 22 20 15 15 7 0 All Likely Dem adults voters 21 Rep 28 19 Ind 18 Opinion of Republican tax proposals Overall, do you favor or oppose the tax reform proposals made by the Republicans in Congress? 100 80 60 % 40 20 45 31 24 58 25 17 0 US* California *November CNN poll. 84 88 Dem Favor Oppose Don't know 58 59 24 18 29 12 Rep Ind 19 Personal impact of tax proposals From what you know of those proposals, do you think you and your family will be better off, worse off, or about the same if they are passed and signed into law? All adults Likely voters Under $40,000 $40,000 to $80,000 Better off About the same Worse off 16 35 39 20 33 41 15 35 37 14 38 41 $80,000 or more 18 34 41 0 20 40 60 80 % 100 20 Lowering corporate taxes and the economy Do you think that lowering taxes for large businesses and corporations would help the economy, hurt the economy, or not make a difference? All adults Likely voters Under $40,000 $40,000 to $80,000 $80,000 or more 0 Help No difference Hurt 29 22 44 35 20 41 25 21 47 33 21 43 32 20 24 40 60 % 42 80 100 21 Components of Republican tax proposals Eliminating deductions for state and local income and sales taxes 80 60 % 40 50 35 20 42 40 55 34 65 25 0 All adults Under $40,000 - $80,00 or $40,000 $80,000 more Favor Oppose Allowing the home interest deduction only on the first $500,000 of mortgage debt 80 60 % 40 49 36 20 48 29 55 36 46 46 0 All adults Under $40,000 - $80,00 or $40,000 $80,000 more Favor Oppose 22 Undocumented immigrants Which comes closer to your view about how to handle undocumented immigrants who are living in the US? There should be a way for them to stay in the country legally, if certain requirements are met, or they should not be allowed to stay in this country legally. 100 80 % 60 40 20 0 86 12 All adults A way for them to stay legally Should not be allowed to stay 90 89 94 80 97 African Asian Americans Americans 6 Latinos 17 Whites 23 Concern about increased federal immigration enforcement When it comes to increased federal immigration enforcement, how much do you worry that someone that you know could be deported? 100 80 60 % 40 20 0 20 21 29 28 21 14 All adults African Asian Americans Americans 17 57 Latinos 18 12 Whites Some A lot 19 20 48 18 Born in US Not born in US 24 Favorability of major political parties % adults 100 80 60 58 40 35 20 0 Democratic Party Republican Party 48 26 100 80 72 60 % 40 20 48 26 8 0 All adults Dem Democratic Party Republican Party 59 14 38 24 44 26 Rep Ind Likely voters 25 Need for a third major party In your view, do the Republican and Democratic parties do an adequate job representing the American people, or do they do such a poor job that a third major party is needed? 100 80 60 % 40 20 60 29 0 All adults 59 33 Dem 62 28 Rep Adequate job Third party is needed 72 64 27 20 Ind Likely voters 26 Outline  PPIC Statewide Surveys  2018 California election  State and national issues  Conclusions 27 Conclusions  Gavin Newsom and Antonio Villaraigosa are the top two candidates in the gubernatorial primary, but three in ten likely voters are undecided.  Senator Feinstein is leading Kevin de León by a two-to-one margin with a third of likely voters undecided.  About half of likely voters prefer candidates for statewide office who will offer new ideas and push back against the Trump administration.  Most Californians oppose the Republican tax reform proposals; few believe they would be better off personally.  Across parties, Californians say there should be a way for undocumented immigrants to stay in the country legally. 28 PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and Their Government December 1, 2017 Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, Lunna Lopes Supported with funding from the James Irvine Foundation, the California Endowment, and the PPIC Donor Circle Notes on the use of these slides These slides were created to accompany a presentation. 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